http://su-etherpad.com/Pad-One-Liner
"Place your take-home messages here.
Don't have the patience to read the entire lecture notes?
Use this pad for the one-line take-home messages of the talks

Provide one line \"key points\" description of each pad:

FORMAT: 
Talk subject, Talker: main etherpad link
Annotator: Take-home message

Nanomaterials, Andrew Minor: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul6-NCS
Andrew: Nano materials are stronger.

Modeling the Human brain, William Risk (IBM): http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul12-AIR
Erez: 
- We would be able to simulate the human brain by 2020 based on super computing capability extrapulations
- Multidisiplinar approach: Neuroscience, Supercomputing, Nanatech
- Human brain: 2*10^8 Neurons, 2*10^14 Synapses

Colonizing the solar system, Pete Worden: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul13-SPS
Erez:
- NASA and Congress aint best buddies.. (underfunding, jobs for useless projects)
- Earth-Moon equilibrium and Earth-Sun equilibrium points are natural spots for space bases
- LEO launches will be outsourced to the private sector
- Methane emission from Mars might indicate the existence of Martian life forms
- Martian moon Phobos is a desired target for exploration: close to Mars, low radiation
- Solar colonization will soon be feasible
- Export-control (ITAR law) inhibits US's space tech

Astrobiology, Chris McKay: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul13-SPS
Erez:
- UV radiation on Mars is lethal in a matter of minutes
- If 2nd genesis of life accured on Mars, it might be ethiacl to preserv the life forms, even microscopic

Rocket equations and BS tests, Dan Barry
Erez:
- 4 BS tests for rockets: 
ISP, 
Delta-V depending on your start and end point
Liftoff thrust/weight ratio > 1, 
Center mass should be above center of center of (Balance?)

Biotech that Matters: What's actionable? , Thomas Goetz: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul14-BB
Erez: 
- A 6yr traditional scientific Parkinson's research was repeated by a 1yr data mining project

Biotechnology's Darker Side, Rob Carlson: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul14-BB
Erez:- Naturally accruing photosynthetic sea-slugs can live of thcan live of sunlight
- Biofuel is currently more expensive than petrol
- new bazz: recombinant biology out, synthetic biology in
- Robot can eat biomass and energize over it
- Genetically Modified food is well accepted in US and will be come more accepted in EU

Life in the extreme: From undersea vents to asteroids and beyond: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul14-BB
Erez:
- Temperature range of life: -18C - 121C
- Extremophiles - cells that can live in extreme conditions. might be useful for space
- Magnus Larsson creates sand structures fortified by genetically engineered bacteria
- Turtle shell is a good and strong building material
- Dropping spirolina bioreactors on the moon and mars as a future food source for people

Novel Neuromonitoring technology and computational biometrics, Philip Low: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul15-MED
Erez:
- SPEARS algorithm analyze brain signal based on a signe channle
- iBrain is a home-based EEG
- Identical twins have identical brain waves: genes -> brain activity
- ECG sensors work well without skin contact (over shirt)
- Crowd-source brain wave by transmiting data over cellphones
- Company: Neurovirgin

Andrew Kogelnik, diagnostics: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul15-MED

Internet of Things, David Orban: http://su-etherpad.com/Jul22-The-Internet-of-Things
We must set robots free if we are to be free.

IBM Almaden Tour: http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul22-IBM-Site-Visit
New technology will make storage devices much smaller and much faster.

Anticipating and Influencing the Future, Peter Bishop: http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul26-Anticipating-and-Influencing-the-Future
Erez:
- You can't predict the future, you should anticipate it. You can't control the future, you can influence it.
- Disagrees with Ray Kurzweil. A disruptive event/tech is S-curve not a pure exponential. It reaches a new steady state. 
- Pure exponential is the result of successive disruptive events
- Leaders are the people that takes society away from a lower maximum towards a higher maximum, which is not in a strait line (\"Creative destruction\")
- Prediction=one future, Forecast=several possible futures, foresight=combined (\"strategic foresight\")
- It is ok to make assumptions. The next step is to challenge the assumption and not just make it
- \"The most likely future isn't\"
- Techcast (http://www.techcast.org/library.aspx) is a tech prediction site
- Google is starting a trading-desk based on their google-trends capabilities (and are hiring..). check out Hal Varian.
- The future wheel is a brain storming technique for forecasting future implications
- Finding the optimal extrapulation of the data: econometrics, basian netwrks, SAS.
- Impossible (0%) \x3c Possible \x3c Plausible \x3c Probable/likely (50%) \x3c Certain (100%)
- GBN is a common future casting technique 

Life in the Universe - SETI, Seth Shostak: http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul27-SETI
When we find inteligent aliens the protocol is: 
1. verify reading
2. notify the world 
3. hold response until international discussion

Yossi Vardi: http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul29-Yossi-Vardi-
The traits of the person you want to invest in: 
- Top expert: How do you know? friends will know
- Kind personallity: In case it doesn't work (and usually it doesn't), at least you help him out
- Their freinds reflect on them

Vint Cerf: http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul29-Vint-Cerf
- IPv6 is coming and will be deployed in parallel of IPv4
- IPN (InterPlanetary Network) is a network protocol for a satellite network
- Sensory BMI is coming (auditory, Visual, Spinal), but doesn't know about mental & memory
- Next big thing: network of cloud-computers

Willow's Garage:
- To create a state of the art privatly funded R&D facility you need:
1. Money invested with good will and patience for a long time before ROI
2. ROI is not nesecarily cash, could be impact on the world
3. Hire the best people
4. Have a clear focus on what the center is about. A bunch of smart ppl without direction can get lost
5. Open source, share with the academy and the world the results, loose IP if any
6. Set the standarts where there are none and build a body of widly useful knowledge for all

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul2-NT
"Friday 
7/2/2010 
9am - 11:15pm 
Merkle 
NT CL1 Intro to Nanotechnology

Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaNWQyYjVhMDktNzJmNS00Mjg4LTkxN2QtNjBhZDEzOTZiZTFm&hl=en
Audio: 
Part 1: http://bit.ly/drZOcZ
Part 2: http://bit.ly/a2xB4b
Part 3: http://bit.ly/c73OIw
Kathryn will review later looking for any [ref] markers--She and TFs will fill these in with references, but all are welcome (encouraged) to add references / put in as many details as are available.

Salim: Intro of Ralph Merkle
Last year, photo on wall. A favorite of the students.

Ralph Merkle: This is the opening inspirational talk.
What is the purpose of life, existance in atoms.
Health, wealth in atoms.
Atoms matter a whole lot. The arrangement matters a whole lot.

On the left you see Coal - carbon atoms.
On the right you see diamond Diamond - also carbon atoms.
Arrangement matters a great deal.
On the bottom left you see a computer chip sitting on a pile of sand
If you take the sand, add a pinch of impurities, you get silicon chips.
On the right, you have two people, one sick, one cycling - difference is how the atoms are arranged.
Three trends in our ability to arrange atoms.
\"Trends\" right.
SU, exponential trends.
1/ Flexibility - more things today than we ever could in the past.
Difficult to quantify this one, but clearly better today.
2/Precision, smallest feature sizes. This we can quantify.
We can see, very very clearly in computer wafers.
Exemplifies very clearly.
3/Cost. Straight lines on semi-log paper. More than exponential trends for decades.

1959 Feynman talk [ref]
There is PLENTY of room at the bottom.
In 1959, he pointed out that the laws of Physics did not speak against manipulating matter atom by atom.
How many have read Feynman: this is vintage Feynman. If not, you are in for a treat.
Everyone keeps pointing out what Feynman said.
Feynman got it right. That is really remarkable.
Still stands as earliest observation on this.
Molecular nanotechnology.
Definitions of scale - there are small things and small things are small.
A lot of things are \"nanotechnology\"
What is interesting is nanotechnology about manufacturing with the ultimate in flexibility, the ultimate in precision - every atom in the right place, the ultimate in low cost - just the materials and energy.
Raw materials in on left, mfg process, output products on the right.
You've been looking at 3D printer.
Evolved.

Sizes
1 meter - size of my arm
mm - about the head of a pin
1000 times smaller is a micron - red blood cells - about 8 microns. Still visible under a light microscope.
Wavelength of light is less than a micron in size.
Down another factor of 1000 - a ribosome - the molecular machine in your body that churns out proteins from DNA/ RNA. About 25 nanometers in size.

A \"typical\" nanotube is 1-2 nanometers.
Atom is a bit more than a tenth of a nanometer.

One of the big things that happened in the last few decades that happened was the scanning electron microscopes.
Yes, it was ugly.
It allowed us to see and touch and even move individual atoms in a way we never thought possible. People were amazed.
Also saw theoretical work - not only see and touch atoms.
We'll be able to build complex molecular structures - nothing in the laws of physics speaks against manipulating matter atom by atom.
We should be able to build lots of interesting devices.

General picture of what is happening.
On left, that dot. The range of things we can build today. Current ability to make things.
Set of capabilities will expand. That gray oval is at present a theoretical understanding - that should let us build a whole range of molecular structures.
We have experimental capabilities we think will be developed.
If we look at it, we have the onrushing experimental front and theoretical analysis.
As we get a better understanding and better experimental techniques, 
once we have those core abilities,
there will be an explosion.

I hope to give you a taste of the magnitude of that explosion.
Industrial
Computer revolutions
New set of capabilities that will change the landscape in a fundamental way.

Not so much that Products are small set of capabilities,
that represents next 10-20 years of output. Huge range.
Insanely huge set of possibilities opened up in the future.

So, manufacturing.
How to arrange atoms.
There are basically two ways:
First, self assembly.
Second, positional assembly.

In self, they stick.
In positional, you take parts and put them together.
This is an illustration of self assembly. [slide T4 Bacteriophage]
Vibratory bowl [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yka5u_Ax6z8]
Track that spirals out of bowl. By the time they exit, they are perfectly aligned.
Charming device to watch work.
[Slide showing smiley face created by self assembly of DNA]

Positional assembly
Involves holding parts and putting them together.
At the scale of you and me, we have hands.
At the scale of atoms and molecules, this idea is new.
Idea is beginning to spread.
With scanning probe microscopes ... [survey of class]
You have surface and a stick.
If you have an AFM - atomic force microscope [ref]
Some measure how much surface pulls on the stick -- very snazzy.
Other technique - Atomic tunneling microscope.
You apply a small voltage, you measure the current as tip is about to touch the surface, there is a small current flow. Now you can scan across the surface.
When increases - closer. When decreases - futher away.
Get picture of surface (bumps)

[Slide with complex machine]
Ultra-high vacuum.

Picture from last year: picture of a single molecule from AFM.
Single pentacene molecule.
Diagram below molecule.
Technically a tour de force.
The AFM is able to see the Image of a single molecule - quite remarkable.
IBM in atoms - classic shot.
1990 done at Almaden.
This is really a tour de force.
Q: In what sense is that an image?
That is an image in that they scanned over the surface, following over the contours of the Xenon atoms. Took that data and produced image. 
Q: Don't atoms move?
Done at 4 Kelvin. Very very cold. Atoms are stable for at least days on end.
At room temp, poof, they all vanish.

Here's another example done at room temperature.
Silicon experiment.
Put single layer of tin on top.
Here, the silicon atoms you use are actually bonded. 
Making and breaking bonds. 
So they are stable. Very nice work. 2008.
Summary:
http://www.nims.go.jp/nanomechanics/Science.html
Original Paper:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/322/5900/413
Here they spelled out Si - the symbol for Silicon atoms on a silicon surface.
That's an interesting capability.
We're still working on a 2D surface. Someone will build a 3D structure. Able to build something, I don't know what.
Now, the theoretical work in this area - of course - allows us to think of things that are not yet experimentally available.

Set of molecular tools to allow 3D construction of diamond.
This set would allow building of another set.
So we know that in a theoretical set - waiting for demonstration that it is feasible in 3D. Hopefully will come relatively soon.

So, what would we want to build?
On upper left, a Neon pump. We might want to pump Neon through a structure ...
Q: At 4 Kelvin?
This would be room temp.
Some could go from 100s of degrees Centigrade down to 0.
Plantary gear on right and universal joint would be able to operate right on down to 0 Kelvin.
Q: Once atoms placed together, what holds them?
We have a whole technical discussion coming up -- including deep insight into what makes atoms hold together and do what they do.
Robotic arm. 100 nanometers tall. Not only something you could build ... need positional control
Not only could you build a molecular robotic arm, but the arm, once built, could hold the tools to build more robotic arms. Builds more of itself [self-reference again ...]

How do we make big things using molecular tools?
If you sneeze the small things will all blow away.

We know that it is possible to make something BIG, like a redwood tree, from something that is small, like a seed for a redwood tree.
Suggest we could build something large from molecular machines that build other molecular machines.
Whole area: self-replication machines. 
Thorough coverage of topic ... fact that I am co-author has nothing to do with my view ;-)
Quite an interesting area.
Build big things from small things.

Convergent assembly -
start small on the left. Put them together, so they are 2 nm parts -> 4 nm parts .. so size doubles at every stage. In 30 doublings you get to 1 m.
[ref]

Q: 
Under a day.
One thing - interesting - speed is a scale independent constant.
If I am going 1 m/second. A nanometer per nanosecond is reasonable speed. Same as 1m/sec.
Small things moving across system - if average speed across is 1 cm/sec then it takes 100 seconds to make a 1 m object.
Speed should be quite good. Kind of interesting.
Will take a few years to develop these machines.

Economics?
Mfg costs should be low.
Lumber, wheat - made with self-replicating mechanisms.
Products are likely to be of same order of magnitude.
We'll see across the board drops in manufacturing costs.

Impact.
Computers - more powerful in the future.
Molecular computers are in the cards.
That's coming.
High density memory. Very high memory molecular memory. 
1 bit per atom. Plausible. In the cards.

Health.
Today's surgical devices are too big.
In the future, molecular tools to deal with cell level damage.

Materials
Lighter, stronger, smarter, less expensive --in aerospace particularly.
Space - available to pretty much everyone.
[K. Eric Drexler ref]
You get orders of magnitude drops in costs.
Vacations in space, living in space for a lot of people.
Analysis of single stage vehicle.
Q: Time horizon?
Depends on how fast we get nanotechnology working.
I'm going to say something that is sacriledge.
We have the straight lines on semi-log paper.
It is how much work we put in, particularly early on.
Chip manufacturers have put in gobs.
Nano is getting zip money. [holding fingers together] Investments are that big.
We can bring in the benefits of the technology by putting in the investment now.
Some technologies not yet on curve.
Until they get onto the curve, a lot depends on chance events.

Babbage in 1840s
Relays used in telegraph systems. Could have used them in 1850s to build computers.
We didn't get computers until 1950s. Big delay on that one.
I'll announce in passing that envinronment would benefit greatly from this technology.
Also good to have long term planning.
Universe 13.7 bn years old. Will continue for awhile.
How many people in this room plan to be alive in 30 years ... 50 ... 100 years.
That is a political hot potato around here.
It would be nice if some better medical technology was developed in a time frame that would be useful to you: 30/50 years. So this horizon makes sense - for personal medical technology.
Life spans have been 70 years.

Question session.
Salim: 15 minutes. 2 slices. Turn around, form groups of 5-6 people.
What were 2 most important aspects.
Discussion results can be logged here: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul2-NT-discussion

Main ideas:
You need to see these things when you buid them

Disruptive nature, could change everything we do, how far away are we from the things we just saw?

Downsides? How do we keep the environment \"clean\" from nanotech? Analogy of fire and the various regulations, tools and rules we have to deal with that potentially destructive technoloigy.

Cost and temperature a problem? Temperature isn't but the higher the temp the more likely you will get undesired side reactions, these things won't be too expensive and as time goes on costs go down. Room temperature operation is likely
10:24 Break

- Molecular nanotechnology

Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaMTU0NzU3ZDQtZGY0Yi00ZTdmLThiNzgtMjI2NzBlMGVkMjAy&hl=en

10:32 Promised introduction to core concepts about atoms and how they work.
First, lead in - why do this.
Manufactured products are made from atoms.

We need to understand what atoms are and how they more.
This will be basic for molecular nano, nano, medical, whole set of concepts.
No equations.
But showing pictorially, graphically. If you want equations, you can look them up.
You will get concepts of equations.
Hard core intro.

That - a nucleus and electron cloud - is an atom
The nucleus is apoint mass. Technically, it may be fuzzy, but ignore that. It is amazingly how well you can model nucleus as Newtonian point mass.
Occassionally, Hydrogen might tunnel. None of the others do this.
The cloud kind of schmeers around.
Defined by laws of quantum mechanics.
It is a blurry cloud on the level of atoms and molecules.

Hydrogen nucleus. One proton. Proton has mass approx. 1 unified atomic mass unit [ref]
About \"1\" -- actually is 1 - actual mass close to 1.
Mass is a funny number.
Charge is +1.

Electron has mass. 1836x smaller than proton. Charge of -1.
Opposite charges attract.
Electron is attracted to proton. Reason it does not collapse is that quantum mechanics says, \"it can't\". Smaller cloud, more blur. Don't ask. It is quantum mechanics.

Carbon atom.
Nucleus - 6 protons and 6 neutrons. That is Carbon 12. Called that because you can add protons + neutrons. 6 + 6 is 12. 6 protons means it is Carbon. By definition. If it has 8 neutrons, it is Carbon 14 : 8 + 6 = 14 Radioactive. Used in dating.

Six electrons. -1 for each.
Now we get some numbers, but don't be alarmed.
1 Unified Atom Mass Unit is blah - an exact number for an AMU. Really small.
10 to the minus 27 kg.

One proton is slightly different from 1 AMU. Slightly different, but pretty close.

Carbon 12 has mass of 12 AMU - by definition.
One electron, a lot smaller in mass.
Mass of neutron is also about 1 AMU.

So. Neutrons and Protons and AMU are about same and real small.
Nucleus has N + P in it. Count them. That integer is the mass number.

Q: What is mass?
I am massive. [Patting self and hopping.]
I am multiple kilograms. In US, I would be in pounds.

Q: How is that different from weight?
I am on a planetary surface. Being attracted by gravity.
In space, I would still have mass, but no weight.
People at NASA are very careful about the differences as mistakes could cause problems on rocket flights.

Q: Mass is resistance to acceleration.
F=ma
Another way of looking at mass.

OK. That is the hairly technical stuff.
That is the core. 
Atoms have nuclei - most of mass in nucleus.
Atoms from bonds. They form bonds because of the electron cloud.

The Hydrogen molecule has TWO protons. Point masses. Electrons are drawn to both protons because they are positively charge.
There is quantum fuzz - about the same size as the bond length.

In fact, what is going on, the electrons like to be near the two protons.
They like to be right between the two protons.
More electron density between the two protons - closer to both protons there.
I want to snuggle up to both protons if I can. If there is more negative charge between the two protons, they say \"Yum\" and move closer to each other. That is what is called a bond.
All about the electrostatic attraction of the electrons for the protons and the protons for the electrons and the quantum mechanics that cause the electrons to not want to be in the same place - so blurred.

Interesting thing. Bond has a certain characteristic length that it likes to be.
If you pull the two protons apart, there is a restoring force. Sort of like a spring. Pull them apart and they want to pull back together.
Stretching a bond is like stretching a spring. Oooo. Interesting.

You can say the same thing in equations. If you get the right spring constants, it is really quite accurate.
You can draw a graph. Plot energy versus bond length.
Two protons, pull them apart. Energy goes up - they don't LIKE to be pulled apart.
If I push them together, they are unhappy.
They go back to the bottom of the potential well.

This potential well describes the force between the two protons in the Hydrogen molecule.
If I know that curve, I don't have to know where the electrons are. I just need to know the shape of that curve.
I just say, \"There is a bond between the two Hydogen atoms.\" I can ignore the electrons entirely.
I am describing a bond between two Hydrogen atoms. I can describe it as a spring between two Hydrogen atoms. I have now allowed myself to think about this spring - no electrons, no quantum mechanics.

OK. Hang on tight. Replaced a bond with a spring.
Now Water. Three atoms. Two bonds. Two springs.
H in upper left and right.
Oxygen in the middle.

I've got something more. Those two hydrogen atoms are at a characteristic angle.
I need another spring. I need an angle with a spring. Those 3 like to be at a particular angle.
Goes back to shape of electron cloud.
Again, I can ignore quantum mechanics so long as I understand the angle.

Finally,there is a torsion angle. Angle around a bond. 
Bond between two Carbon atoms. As I rotate, there is an angle it wants to be at. 
Now I have another angle: a torsion angle spring constant.
Some people omit this. But it is often significant - especially in biological systems.

This covers the INTERNAL angles.
Semester course in molecular mechanics. This is speed learning.

Now molecules float and bump and have force between them. Called the \"van der Walls\" force. Falls off very rapidly. Weaker.

Q: Is this strong/weak forces?
No. Those are inside nuclei.
Weak forces govern radioactive decay.
We are tossing out.

Q: No gravity?
Gravity does not exisit. Picture of what is going on between atoms and molecules. Throwing out everything we possibly can. Gravity at scale of atoms/molecules - tiny. 
Neutrinos? Forget them.

Q: What is attracting the molecules?
Electrostatics
Quantum forces we are very carefully getting rid of here.
.

nice you know those forces you can start to undersand a lot of things, chemistry, biochemisty, water

This is a bit of a lie, this is water but essentailly this is telling the truth, ordinary water is moving around and not as uniform
if you throw in a hexane you have an oily (hydrophobic) molecule in water and there are less hydrogen bonds. You break the hydrogen bonds.
Energetically that's bad, if you through two hexane molecules in the water you are breaking more hydrogen bonds which is not good.
If the hexane molecules snuggle up to each other you break fewer hydrogen bonds. That's why oil and water don't mix.

Hydrophobic vs. Hydrophilic
Hydophilic - parts of molecules that form h bondss sitck to both each other and water 
Hydrophobic - parts of molecules stick to each other

Explains protein folding
hydrophobic parts stay inside touching each other, hydrophilic parts stay on outside bonded with each other

Simple Newtonian physics can describe the motion of atoms

Most molecular mechanics models use:
1. Bond length/stretching (interaction between 2 atoms)
2. Angle bend (interaction between 3 atoms)
3. Torsion (interaction between 4 atoms)
4. van der Waals (interaction between atoms over a small distance - sub nm scale)
5. Electrostatics (interaction between atoms over a larger distance - sub nm scale)

Again: discussioned logged at http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul2-NT-discussion

Backchan.nl questions:

Do the bonds get larger as temperatures increase of do they stay the same length until their is a phase change?
brad su

What actual models - tinkertoy type of models - are available which exhibit the appropriate spring-like behaviors including torsion? Can we get some to play/build with?
John Graves Singularity University

Asimov's Laws
Immoral or illegal to \"pause\" a computer-based being?
Genero Sapiens vs Homo Sapiens Effictus

[end of presentation]
=================================================================
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Student Question:
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Instant Evaluation:
https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/gsp10/feedback/week-2

GSP10 Book List:
http://bit.ly/GSP10BookList

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul5-AIR
"Monday 
5 July 2010
9am \u2013 10am 
AIR CL4 Artificial Intelligence: Applications 
Neil Jacobstein

Speakers on this pad:
9:06 Neil Jacobstein
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/present/view?id=0AWIj9HPeinaFZGY2cDNjOXpfMzcxY2tiNDU0ZDQ&hl=en
10:12 Ben Goertzel
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B2Ij9HPeinaFMmRkZTY4NmEtMmNjMy00OGMxLTg0NGItZTQxYTYyZjdjNDZm&hl=en
11:19 Peter Norvig
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B2Ij9HPeinaFMjRlOTQyZWUtMGJkYS00ODA5LTg1ZGEtYzQ1ODgxZWI4MDg4&hl=en

=============== PRE-presentation notes

Kathryn will review later looking for any [ref] markers--She and TFs will fill these in with references, but all are welcome (encouraged) to add references / put in as many details as available.

New slide marker in Etherpad starting today:
- 
at the left margin, the hyphen above indicates a new slide.

If someone wants to put in the TITLE of the slide, like this
- Example Title
that would be even better.

We may be able to use this system to create a robot presenter:
http://su-etherpad.com/Jul5-Robot-Presenter

Suggestions for etherpad contributor signals during talks:
.
A period at the left margin means this contributor is taking a break
=
An equals sign at the left margin means this contributor is ready to capture the next words
(their first keystroke would be a backspace)

PRIOR AIR Etherpad: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun28-AIR-CL1-Overview-AI-Robotics-Jacobstein (includes Dan Barry's CL2/3)

=============== End of PRE-presentation notes

9:06
Today we are going to talk about applications of AI.
-
The use of AI is part of a larger technology arc
-
-
Machines replaced humans as calculator drones
-
Lester Thurow - replace physical exertion with brain power
\"Standards of living rise not because people work harder but because they work smarter. Economic progress is the replacement of physical assertion with brain power.\"
- Machine Augments Human Expert: Dendral 1965 - 1980
We've been able to demonstrate amazing applications. Machines solving
In the last 50 years we've been able to get machines to solve problems which only people had been able to solve.
System used heuristics and rules of chemistry, amazingly successful.
Narrow AI expert system. Hand coded in LISP.
Since Dendral, 
-
we've been able to demonstrate narrow AI in a wide variety of domains.
Can sometimes outperform people who created the system.
At Bangkok at rush hour, these systems can't compete with human drivers.
-
If it works, it isn't AI.
Now, when AI is successful, they are considered medical or manufacturing applications, not AI applications.
-
AAAI - in 1989, created an applications conference to capture and doocument the deployed and emerging applications.
Team of 25 researchers gets together and
Selects the top 20 which are presented at the AAA conference each year
There are about 460 since 1989. 
You can go to the website and look at most of them, download PDFs
-
AI has been deployed worldwide.

Or in their power grid or small devices in cras and macines
And in many cases there are universities doing AI research
The range of AI applications is truly huge, ubiquitious, increasingly invisible and embedded in 'vanilla' products and services
they are distributed across wide variety of application domains
industry
government applications
-
Most of the applications, we don't know about.
No delivedrd by PDAs mobile phones and cloud computer services
Mid-1990's AI reached a tipping point.
Many people adopted it without knowing, adopted in the fact that people were using mobile phones that used AI tech
Instant credit check involves AI
- Task Automation
Only humans used to do these things.
We don't have broad human intelligence of AGI we have an amazing list of what we can do
Thinking about your team projects and what AI could do for you. This is the list of what might be relevant.
- Application Domains
DARPA has funded a lot of AI over the last 50 years.
At this year's conference, oceanography application determining when sample bottles open to sample organisms.
- Sample of AI Application
- Sources of Value Added
Acceleration is often by orders of magnitude.
Most important: EXPANDING THE RANGE OF THE POSSIBLE
Example would be really complex scheduling and planning problems
-
Beverly Park Woolf: Building Intelligent Interactive Tutors [Matt: for book list]
http://www.amazon.com/Building-Intelligent-Interactive-Tutors-ebook/dp/B002ZJSVKA

Carnegie Learning for Algebra I. Really large studies, carefully controlled. 70% greater likelihood of completing subsequent courses.
If you want to build more than a page turner, with a student model, see Woolf's book.
-
Thing remarkable about DARPA BBN - 10 million element search space.
Produced improvements in productivity. Speed ups. Increased accuracy.
-
The paper system had a mechanistic causal model. Diagnosing problems. Pitch gums up systems. Used in many mills, still in use today.
-
Dick Reese said DART+ alone paid for all of DARPA's investments in AI.
Logistics Europe/Saudi transfer of materials.
C++ system
Oracle forms.
Standard linear programming package.
Off the shelf tools. Used lin prog to do optimization.
- GE Plastics Color formulation tool (http://www.allbusiness.com/technology/computer-software-programming/1102684-1.html)
Almost old enough to vote. How would an AI system wote?? Democratic?
Big business for them. Huge savings.
Delivered over web.
An example of what you can do as a large corporation when you are paying attention and bringing a system through the culture.
-
Jack Myers collaborated with CS Harry Pople
THey built a system that wasinformally known as Jack in the Box
Building in internal medicine knowledge base.
They did quite a good job of capturing a big chunk of internal medical base
Randy built a commercial version.
Internist 1 was used in early years of capturing knowledge base
Finally, QMR had a PC version
System was remarkably effective for doing what they wanted it to do
Didn't get traction in the medical community.
-
If interested in Biomedical Informatics [Matt: another book]
Biomedical Informatics - computer applications in health care - Edward H. Shortliffe, James J Cimino
Goertzel will talk to you about a longevity gene
-
Lessons learned.
Acceptance remains elusive.
Schism between development and implementation.
Ted Shortland has discusssed.
\"Effectiveness\" discussion is not enough.
BUT adoption is a whole different thing.
Issues: culture, integration, work flow, verification, changing guidelines, finance, safety and
in the US: liability
Diagnosis is NOT the key problem.
If you are thinking about deploying into developing countries, success will depend on the availability of prevention or treatment, not just diagnosis.
-
Personal medical advice is coming along. We see now platforms to capture medical information.
Standard guidelines.
If time goes on, people working now on agents, use your data, provide specific recommentations. Will need more data.
-
Game based AI is a big win. Fastest growing. THE competitive edge. Games > Movies.
VERY big deal.
AI in these games varis.y widely
How many use such games? [lots of hands]
AI ratchets up and becomes 
AI in VR environments - Second Life (see Ben)

-
AI sourcing - brings together user requirements and 
Use constraints and tree search algorithms.
Hosted over 230 procurement events.
Cost savings, $1.8 bn

64-bit shared server farm
-

AI generate antenna. Evolved a solution using the criteria they had as selection pressure.
F-22 Raptor, Cockpit interface applications.
Anti-glaucoma drug - designed based on structural constraints.
Lenses are preimum optics. Used to take months, now they have captured that optical
knowledge and can now produce new lens in a very short period of time.

-
If you can produce a system that can both have domain knowledge and task search
And access to the web you can provide amazing services
Google has been able to leverage their access in Translation (Norvig)

Microsoft's Bing \"Search decision engine\" is meant to provide answers not only pointers to URL's.
Wolfram Alpha - curating knowledge. If you can state your problem in the way they have curated knowledge, it can give very sophisticated answers [ref]

SIRI takes task requests. Gives the user a very small window to help answer. Apple bought SIRI - Adam coming next week
-
Shine - built at NASA's JPL. It is blistering fast. Reason for that, they pre-allocate storage. They can get this thing to run in near real-time. Specifically designed to diagnose problems on spacecraft. Used onGalieleo etc.
NASA licensed to Biospace - useful in other domains.
http://www.viaspace.com/
-
Today, not just on a single workstation. AI+ other technologies. Mainstream languages.
RDF
Uniform Resource Identifier
Leveraging neuroscience - Numenta
like VitaminD?
Mainstream applications integrated with AI. Browser is GUI. And sometimes speech interfaces used in new ways.
Not technology or researcher centric, they are now built around the processes in the organization.
Can get closed feedback in robotics
-
Seen on mars. Urban grand challenge.
Robots in small slice form.
Lego kits, small amounts of AI (planning systems)
Robot soccer Neo? [ref]

-
We are not just looking at robots in macro scale. Molecular scale.
Interacting at nanoscale.

-
Map patents in nanotechnology. Early example of some interdisciplinary coordination.

-
Deployment and evolution include engineering - including social aspects.
You really need to pay attention to all the problems of getting these systems adopted by 
Organizations who have resistance to change.
Very important to leverage deep domain and task knowledge.
Sometimes big win just through leveraging massive data.
-
Biological time perspective. 
Some of you may think AI has had 50 years to achieve AGI, that should be enough
Compare how long it took Mother Nature - 600 million years - by that standard we are doing OK
-
When are we getting AGI?

For team project work, they use narrow slice of AI.
Whole unified theory of cognition delivering value?
Suggest: identify immediate value generators.
Make resilient decisions to cover your bets.
-
Questions?
Em: Please use mic as we are taping.
9:42
No questions?
Shary: Resources for technicalities. What is really happening? If/then?

AAAI - lot of documentation of how they do it.
Go to that site and click on applications.

Gary: Interested in Google and others. Rate web, all information. Matching same criteria we use? Google rates pages based on links they have, but you don't get that much for certain information. Different system to provide what you are looking for. Joke e-mail sparked idea. Asked you to pick a famous person. Asks you to filter answer. Will find person in 15 questions. Male/Female - will find people all over the earth. Can you have filtered criteria, the exact answer you are looking for?

Interesting question. In example you gave, it is a constrained domain. About searching for people, not other domains. If you can constrain the domain, or having people willing to hang in there for 15 questions. Google users want a SINGLE search. They click around for awhile to find what they want. You want a single answer: either contrain domain or be more specific. The way to build systems like that - see if you can require less than 15 steps, follows user and knows more. Can help provide exact match due to knowledge of user's intent.

Sasha: Expressed / implied inputs.

In most cases, most systems not understanding implied inputs. Requires sophisticated user model. Early Microsoft Bob - universally not appreciated. Tried without context to understand.
Best now are cognitive tutors.

Jan/Germany: Search engines in next decades? Wolfram Alpha - how is it different \"computational knowledge engine\"?

If you know Mathematica, you can use WA with more ease. Use that genre.
Next gen search: key is to get beyond links to documents. Will be helped by people encoding their URI - not just their documents. Right down the data item - the leaf nodes.
Just by having that massive data available.
If you can encode the semantics of the search, a la Web 2.0 or 3.0. Ontologies.[ref]
Some combination of URI and semantics.

Dmitry: How labor and time intense is development of narrow AI? Is there a way to outsource? If we know business/engineering and need it fast/cheap? What are typical conditions?

Typically there are two types of people for deep narrow AI system. A human expert who has the entire body of knowledge - typically not substitutable. Need someone available for quite a long time to extract the knowledge from and ensure high quality
Other people you need are those who can encode that knowledge sometimes the experts can do it sometimes you need someone who can tease out the model on how they solve complex problems.
Could you outsource, sure but you still need the integration of those two people.
reference to Push Singh's work - now ongoing in the Mind Machine Project as the OpenMind group: http://openmind.media.mit.edu

Need long-term patient sponsorship

9:55 Break.
Words from BBC guy: Thanks for your secrets. They were on the record. We will be in contact with some of you via e-mail. Hope you get everything you hope for from the program. Bye.

AIR CL6 The Future of Artificial General Intelligence (Ben Goertzel )
Mon, July 5, 11:30am \u2013 12:30pm

10:12 Ben (via Skype)
Sorry I couldn't make it.
AGI
Will go through very quickly - own take on history of AI.
At the end, since this is SU, I will indulge in a bit of speculation.
AGI during next few decades.
Feel free to e-mail me at your leisure. Always interested to talk.
Look at my Keynote presentation rather than my face. 
Will start screen sharing.
10:14 [Switches to screen share]
AGI 1950-2050
So this talk is called, \" \"
Since you have already done some AI material, 
will go quickly
1950-2050 was nice round century.
-
AGI
Artificial General Intelligence.
Define with G factor: look up
Shane and Legg? published paper with 70 different definitions.
-
Contrasted with narrow AI.
Can be quite valuable
1950 Turing test for general AI. Assume already reviewd.
Back then, they thought they could build machines like people.
-thought it would happen in the 50s 60s or 70s
didn't think it would take a half century.
-
-
Flourishing of differnet types of seach
NLP
Winograd
Lenat - math theorem
connection Machine - field going in all directions
-
1990
-
Google is an AI company
PayPal is an AI company - fraud detection
chess
planning control, unmanned vehicles, video games
Slide shows character from Black & White
-
By 2001 we were suppose to have AI -- Hal
-
Instead we got Google - narrow AI everywhere, helpful but not intelligent like C3PO
-
Useful things: car in desert
-
I've done my own narrow AI.
Biomind
Machine learning applied to biological data
mitrocondrial mutations
-
Fruit flies live 5x normal \"Methuselah flies\" [ref]
Narrow AI, but important
-
AGI is coming back
-
Series of conferences. 2010.
-
AGI - 11 next year at Google's campus [ref]

Not remotely as marginalized as it was a decade ago.
Ambitions may be done now, or at least soon.
-
Open source OpenCog [http://opencog.org/]
Builds on dot com company 
Book from 2006, the hidden pattern. Discusses philosophy of mind.
-
Book: Building better minds - whole approach in detail.
Many types of memory.
Separate types for different memories
Goals - 
Attentional memory
Using system to control agents - embodies agents. Virtual embodied agents.
And humanoid robots.
-
Blow up of declarative knowledge representation. Where specialized representations come together.
Combines aspects of neural net to importance values.
They flow around like in a neural net.
Semantic net.
Most nodes have no names. Most don't correspond to English worlds or external perceptions or actions.
-
Prototype in second life. Dog controled by AI.
-
Video from multiverse.
Shows how ambiguities can be perceived relative to virtual world.
[narrates story - dog: \"grab it\" with \"it\" being disambiguated]
Not just a mocked up demo, but a screen capture from Multiverse [ref]
Dog does learn stuff and respond using OpenCog.
-
Would like to do virtual parrots
-
Virtual babies.
-
What we have done is gone from dog to humanoid. Early stage work.
Xiamen in China [ref]
Robot made by French company [ref]
chinese grad students to control French robot
Code from Brazil
Nice thing about open source approach, comes out quite international and interdisciplinary.
Built by the world, just as Linux has been. Versus secret government lab.
-
Robot can interact with people. Play.
Not most advance.
Impressed by PR2 built by Willow Garage.
Very different from virtual world. Have to deal with \"messy\" real world.
-
Video showing robot navigating around.
Some chinese guy says, \"Hey robot, go to the chair\" It navigates there.
[aside: Skype message cannot be viewed while playing video.]
Robot found chair.
-
Alright we're back.
Important thing in 2010. Robot revolution is beginning.
Sound would have helped in last video. Defect of Skype's screen share.
But, importing virtual dog code to robot, robot has to do vision processing.
Has to move head around object.
Makes it more difficult, doesn't add much. Lab is simplified environment.
Later, richer environment, more affordances, you get a better interaction.
Some reason to think that human richness comes out of richness of world we interact with.
Having some kind of interaction with a realy rich world gives system a lot of data.
Maybe system with lot of interactio with internet could do it too.
How rich does the perceptual/motor interaction need to be?
Could talk about that a long time.
Robotics is coming. See Willow Garage robot here.
Doesn't fall down due to wheels.
Woman is robot, guy is human.
-
Honda robots play soccer
-
James Albus - created for US Army
-
2020
What is coming in the future?
-
What I'm aiming at is robots and virtual agents - virtual toddler.
We can get there in 10 years. Maybe less. 
I'm optimistic we could get there in 5 years with adequate funding and focus.
These are hard to come by.
We will have robot children - controlled by 
OpenCog or integrative systems.
-
Robot servants.
Whether that wil happen.
Care for domestic tasttasks.
-
Robot Scientists.
Child robots + narrow AI
-
Biology interests me most.
Control AI biology equipment
AIs to surf biological papers
Put together with AGI system like OpenCog - many not be like human, but much better.
Potentially may read every paper and look at all data.
Creativity, playfulness
+ accumen of narrow aI system -> Nobel Prize winning results every day
-
More and more global brain emerging.
Internet leverages human intelligence - and stupidity and other human traits.
.

Robot service, Korea has said that by 2020 there will be a robot in every house, 
Robot scientists, our robot toddlers with useful narrow AI programs we should be able to get use for early stage AGI systems. 
N

Where going to see the internet have a mind of it's own (skynet via Terminator 3)

2030: A bit closer to the singularity

One big network, car, toilet, home, 3D printer, avatars in various virtual worlds, service robots, basement fusion reactor etc will all work together. Hopefully not a big brother scenario but more like the internet today. An internet bridging every virtual and physical object to speak of which will have all kinds of amazing implications. 

Internet of things
-
2050: Ray Kurzweil projects technological singularity at this stage (2045)

+/- 15 years, that's about right.
- A Very Hard Problem

A cockroach projecting the outcome of WW2 - as useful as predicting what happens after that.

Goal invariance under radical self-modification:
How can you create something that gets better, but doesn't change \"spirit\".
It could have a change of heart with huge IQ.
Solvable technical problem.
- Another Very Hard Problem
Make an AGI that subjugates us all. More of a political problem.
- from Orion's Arm
When AGI really succeeds, it goes beyond all these things we've discussed,
it will be beyond human comprehension.
Hope we enjoy the ride.
[applause]
Neil: Come to front of room for questions. Don't be shy.
Michael Chen: Saw OpenCog on Singularity Summit last October. Since then?
BG: Bunch of devlopments. Robotics work is new. Extending from virtual world.
Natural language gen working much more robostly. System can express itself.
Backend improvements.
MC: Track?
BG: OpenCog developers e-mail. Blog and wiki not updated as often as it should be.
IRC channel. [ref]

Shary: Wondering to what extent current AGI is trending to human intelligence, which has emotions, intuition etc that makes us humanm, how is this integrated into AGI?
BG: People trying to emulate. Others aiming at GI. I'm aiming at latter. Not a human. Started with cognitive architecture, but no sex drive in the robot or get angry when someone insults it. Emotion and intuition are part of broad architecturs. But specific group that governs humans is not being built into OpenCog. Other researchers are.

Eric: Talked about robot child by 2020. Would this be static - same intelligence/behavior or some kind of learning that would grow?
BG: Everyghing I am doing is about learning. Child would learn. All unknow territory. 
This is all uknown terrirtory, whether we can build a robot child and teach it so that it can learn and learn and become an adult. etc. We don't know yet. 
Certainly AGI is all about dealing with learning systems.
AGI vs narrow AI is to learn about situations that programmer did not anticipate.
Child can deal with situation its parents never thought of.

Eric: If we get there by 2020, we don't need to do anything else because it iwll just go by itself, at least the basic mechanism?

If we get to a robot toddler, we've solved AGI. Once you have the toddler, you've made the breakthrough. Even if you have to modifiy it a bit -

\"Leap from robot toddler to nobel prize winner is much less than where we are now\"

3 to 10 year old change - genetic programs come into play. The brain changes.
You probably need to add some expert functionality. But core learning/intelligence algorithms are the same.

Bill Bing: Politics and policy associated with different areas. Roombot, not much outrage as a vaccuum cleaner. Which areas will allow more progressive use of robots and the higher level human like behaviour?

BG: Well, in large part that depends on the robotic side as well as the AGI side. And depends on cost. Neo is $15,000. Another is $100,000. Not that many can afford the PR2.
Once it crosses the cost threshold - PR2 for $5K. People will find amazing uses that we can't imagine now.
Haven't plotted exponential curve for drop in robot prices. I think 2020 - upper middle class in the developed world. Once more prevalant - more issues.

Jan/Germany: Reading about Numenta - HTM How is your approach different?

BG: I think ... I read Jeff Hawkings book on intell. Certainly true - not terribly original, but elegantly expressed. Vision processing by HTM. Many decades - bcak to Mountcastles, 1970s.
vision/ audition in human brain are HTM.
Disagree on HTM is not characteristic of all. Important for V and A.
Other had 
Neocortex for cognition - comes from repitle olfactory bulb.
So cognitive cortex has combinatorial.
Different
Non-linear dynamics and strange attractors missing from HTM model.
Nice philosophy, theory of vision.
Not actuation.
Not language.
No

Tomaso Poggio/ MIT
http://mcgovern.mit.edu/principal-investigators/tomaso-poggio
E A
Binatx
http://www.binatix.com/people.html
Functional / H T M based AI vision system.

Poggio closer to brain
Ent - seem to work better than Hawkins.
From lay persepctive, same structure.

Yara: Existing languages good enougn?
Church?
BG: There is a saying [Greenspun's tenth rule] that any sufficiently complex software program has a LISP interpreter in side it.
Current program languages are a
I prefer Haskell and LISP, but they're not as scalable as C++. Church - Noah Goodman's thing - that's a toy language. Not remotely scalable, even to the level of say LISP or Haskell. If you had something like that which could deal with large amounts of memory and machines like C++, that would be great. But we don't have that, and C++ is enough. We basically emulate the things that Church provides in C++. It's tempting to say \"well, AI would be easier with a better language, so we should start with the language,\" but I looked at the history and saw that people spent 10 years just building their languages, and it turns out to be really hard to build a programming language, and we don't *need* it.

EK/Argentina: 2 parts. Laws of computation, 

We've made airplanes and helicopters and spacecraft, but we can't make a robot hummingbird.

Empathy has two aspects: logically modeling other people and internally simulating other person.
In principle we don't do that well, AGI could do that better. Or we could build psycho-paths. Both possibilities exist within broadly human-like systems.

Wide variance within humans. Some really rotten without good side.
Doubt that what we see exhausts range of possible. Could have REALLY sweet computer.

Justin/Canada: Great Talk. Philosophy - human / biological traits. Dawkins, Selfish Gene.
Unselfish AGI possible?

BG: Of course, it is possible. We are not limited to what we are.
[static/distortion now]
11:09 
[dropped video]
Neil: we ought to reboot?
BG: [very noisy] Reeboot????
[laughter and applause]
Neil: Peter Norvig is here.
11:10

AIR CL5 Artificial Intelligence: Methods (Peter Norvig)
Mon, July 5, 10:15am \u2013 11:15am
11:19
Neil: Peter Norvig is director of research at Google Inc.
AAAI
ACM
co author of leading textbook in the field.
USC/ Berkeley - what goes on under the hood.

Peter: Always enjoy speaking with the Singularity.
Ben did a good job talking about the big picture.
I'm going to do the small picture. Bottom up.
People with vision - what is right architecture
and people looking for right pieces.
Tough task. Wrote with Stuart Russell 1200 page textbook
1 hour lecture
1/2 hour so you could have questions
Intelligent agents
Search
Logic
Planning
Uncertainty
Learning
Interfacting with the world
Language
Perception
Perceiving the world with senses
Philosophical issues
-
Four ways
Ar you duplicating what humans or doing or trying to do the best job
How successs do they act: external
Most useful - act rationally.
-
Rational agent
Percieves and acts.
Map prior perception into current action
-
Table tennis? Yes
Drive a road? yes
- list
Things in red you can't do yet.
Pink arguing
Green have been done
History of AI like history of war on cancer.
Nixon: War on Cancer. Must have lost.
But, look at cancer rates, lots of successes. Better all the time.
New treatments.
Better and batter at a lot of tasks but not one answer.
AI is like that.
- Hard questions
- Agents and environments
Agent in one box. Takes percepts. Sensors. Actuators. Black box does something.
-
Example. Has to clean stuff up. Whether dirty. Figure out right program, right sequence of actions.
Vacuum cleaner world
Is that the right function? Measure of metric. see how it performs.
-
-
More complex tracks state of world.
-
Even more complex
Keep track of state of the world and track goals
-
Most complex - utility based, not just black/white. How much is it worth.
- Problem solving agents
Define world in terms of states.
- Problem Types
Talk about attributes, how hard for agent.
Deterministic - like chess
Non-observable - sensorless problem.
Nondeterministic - solution is a contingency plan
State unknow - exploration problem - what COULD world be like
History has been one of dealing with increasing complexity.

- 
Map of whole state
-
Similar problems like moving tiles around. Good theoretical
-
Algorithm no time for details
- Maap problem
- Algorithm. What comes next, until get to goal
-
-
Trade off until you reach goal.
-
skip that
-
Genetic algo
May allow parts to go together 
Can combine parts of a different solutions hoping that they will solve a problem when combined
-
Eight queens problem. Can take half of left board, half of right board, put together, see how well it solves. Chance of selecting proportional to fitness.
-
What is that blob?
-
How about this blob? [fuzziness]
- Uncertainty
In early years of field, being able to represent problems.
We've gotten a lot better at this recently (late 80s)
Now we can handle problems with uncertainty.
Move from chess to robots moving around. Gears slipping. Other things.
-
Why do we need to deal with uncertainty?
Evertyhing in life has uncertainty.
Optimal route may be dterministic, but what time to leave?
There could always be earthquake, car hit by asteroid, whateer?
What is spread over time. Usually 25 min. Allow more than 25 min, but not 25 hours.
What is spread is subject fo runcertainty.
-
Uncertainty is two things, Probability and Utility
Probabilistic asserstions summarize affects of laziness and unknowns
Laziness - don't integrate everything. Get all traffic reports. Do simulation. Figure out today how long to drive to airpor. Easier to just give a few extra
Can use Baysion probabilities to summarize the problems
- Inference bu
-Normalization
-Bayes' rule and conditional independence
causal probability networks, dont have to look at all P values just those that are related to each other
- Preferences
rational axioms based on prefs.
-Rational Preferences
constraints
- Rational pref. contd.
- Maximizing expected utility
- Utilities
can map them into real numbers, think of them in terms of lotteries
1/1000000 chance you die how much would you pay to avoid? $30
-
-Decision Networks
add action nodes andutility nodes to belief networks
- Multiattribute utility
- Strict dominance
B blob dominates A blob of uncertainty
-Qualitative behaviors
a choice is obvious, worth a little
b choice is not obvi, worth a lot
c choice is not obvi, worth a little

- Strict dominance
Two attributes we know are monotonically increasing. Anything in that region is better. B is better than A.
That's when outcomes our 

- Qualitative behaviors
- Inductive Learning (a.k.a. Science)
Ben talked alot about learning. Key to AI.
Think of learning as induction.
We are trying to bring it all back into learning functions.
Learn from pair of examples. tic-tac-toe.
Figure out rules, best move
- Inductive learning method
Easy generalization from curve fitting to AI.
What is best fit for points. 
Best fit quadratic - seems good but point mssing
-
Higher order - which is better - 
-
Here is another that fits all - but who would pick that
Occam's Razor [ref]
- Performance measurement
Shary: ??
PN: This does not have to be. Trying to do learning - Bayesian in 
Performance over training set size. 
- Example: linear Gaussian model
Here lot of linear models, approaches tended to be complex. As problems get bigger, more complex we get more complex features. Make the square of the variable one of the features. That technology seem to be helpful.

Slides are now available: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B2Ij9HPeinaFMjRlOTQyZWUtMGJkYS00ODA5LTg1ZGEtYzQ1ODgxZWI4MDg4&hl=en

- Brains
How much on what works vs how much is it like brain.
How to model neurons
-
-
- Back prop
Math gets complex, but we don't need to go into details
-
- Hadwritten digit recog
Support vector machines
Best machine ~.6% error
Trading back and forth as techniques advacne.
- Mobile Robots
Transition to uncertain environments.
Robots is where the treads hit the road.
Messy environment.
- Localization problem - Where Am I?

One of the problems where we have had a lot of success
Dynamic Bayes net

- Localization cond
Through bunch of measures
Assume gaussian noise in moriton prediction. sensor range measurements

These are 4 measurements for range. From angle, two match well, two don't.
Too noisy to figure out where you are [relative to side or corner of box]
- 
Could be almost anywhere in map.
Get more reading.
Yet more seconds of reading, figures out where it is.
So, knows for sure. Localization given a map.
- 3D mapping
Situation where you don't know map.

Whirlwind tour. You get an idea of the range.
Look up ones you are interested in.
11:50 [applause]
Sam/Australia: Noticed economic ideas came up? How much integration is there with social sciences?
PN: AI separate, but historical accident. Other fields closely aligned. In a sense, economics is one of them. Doing the right thing. Economics focuses on masses. AI focuses mostly on agents. Economics looks at individuals. AI looks at groups, but mostly not.
Control theory. AI not branch of this? Due to set of tools you have.
Strictly defining disciplines - smell of chem lab. Shape of beakers. 
Control theorists had models for linear things.
Simplify until tools worked.
AI said, we want to go someplace else.
Good for exploration of different parts of world.
Things KNOWN in control that were needed in AI. For decades.

Bryce: Ethics. Concepts we deal with. Specifically. In AI, movement back to linear mapping, adding non-linear as features. Higher level predicate functions, reason being to maintain logical entailment? between functions. Connection? Montonicity? [sorry bryce - what is this term?]
Choice better, between 3 things or 1000s? Opportunity costs?

PN: First about language. relation to AI. Important from the beginning.
What it means to be human.
I see this parallel between learning algo and language - perhaps coincicdene, but common root.
Theoretical and practical.
Some not feasible. Find shortcuts.
Leads into common set of approaches. That's where they come together.
Monotonicity.
Irrationality.
I talked about split - model or best action.
I was talking about perfect rationality.
Undertand how to act human - playing poker for example. 
Understand where they make mistakes and exploit that.

Bryce: Point was not irrational montonicity, but ...
PN: How you define the problem. Weakness - problem is not taking all variables into account.
As a core computational problem
Here is definition of problem
Here is how to behave rationally.
There is finite ability
If you just pose problem, not enough.
You have one click of CPU clock - what wil you spend it on.
How soon do you need decision.
You can get right answer - too many choices
Maybe ignore some of these
Much more complex.
No good theories on how to ignore things. \x3c\x3c\x3c\x3c\x3c\x3c\x3c\x3c\x3c
You'd have to write all that down.

Gary: Frrom you point of view, relating to robots. Will keep on focusing on more complicated, econometric models? or neuroscience? Some kind of organs. Much more intelligent.

PN: We want people approaching from both ends. Robots coming along well. Ben made good point - depends on how much tehy cost. Amount of work relates to how easy to get them.
1978 level of PC revolution in robots now. No Macintosh yet. Nothing you'd want to have in your house yte.
Some on neural models.
Some on rational computation.
Still need better pieces. Sensors. Actuators. 
Once we have pieces, get more capable approaches.
Still at vey low leve.
Follow robot soccer - great place for teamwork.
Winners hit ball hardest, straightest.
Everybody has access to low level, focus then on high level.

Bill/US: very quickly make decisions, jsut know it (Blink [ref])?

Very good at picking out annecdotes to make compelling point. Someone else, maybe Gladwell himself, could make opposite point: quick decisions that are screw ups [tell me about it!]

Good to know there is one mode of thinking, but to say every expert acts instantaneously -- well, we don't.
Neil: Thank you Peter.
[Applause]
12:03

Em: Reminders. Anders. Last student that arrived this weekend.
Welcome.
[applause]
Lauren: you've got to say a few words. 30 seconds about how much you hate the US Embassy.
Anders: Hello. Yes. Thank you. I know nothing about what you said about yourselves.
I had some trouble with the American embasssy. all behind me. Steep learning curve.
I'm from Denmark. Another Dane here. Working with business development. No engineer, no technicial. Mostly IT systems for 10 years or so. 36. Wife 2 kids in Denamrk.
Looking forward to next 8 weeks. Thank you.
[more applausese]
Em\" E-mailed TP selections. Teams. 583C all 5 this afternoon.
Schedule shows which in which room.
Please bring all stuff out of this ballroom. We need to close it down.
12:07
[end of presentation]

c
New meta-data today for weeks 1-2: 

Cumulative Etherpad document: https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/pads/home/week2/pads.html?attredirects=0&d=1

Pages of etherpad output (if printed as PDF): 390

Wordle of cumulative etherpad: http://www.wordle.net/show/wrdl/2208722/SU_Week_2_Wordle

Python code used to collect Etherpads: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/Doc?docid=0AXBeYKoQJeyQZGRxMjJnNWpfNTNkbXYycDZ4Ng&hl=en

=============

Techshop (Saturday, 3 July):
Picasa: http://picasaweb.google.com/singularityu/TechShop#
Pad: http://su-etherpad.com/Jul3-Techshop

=============

TP Pads for this afternoon:
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul5-Energy-TP
http://su-etherpad.com/tpfood-Jul5-Food-TP
http://su-etherpad.com/tpspace-Jul5-Space-TP
http://su-etherpad.com/tpupcycle-Jul5-Upcycle-TP
http://su-etherpad.com/tpwater-Jul5-Water-TP

NOTE: You should already be a member and Owner of the Google Group for your team project.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul16-NT
"7/16/2010 
Friday

9am - 10am 
NT CL7 Molecular Machine Systems 
Ralph Merkle
Slides:https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaNmJiOWRmNzQtYTQ1Yi00NTdlLTljYjgtMWZkMmUzNzVjNWFk&sort=name&layout=list&pid=0B2Ij9HPeinaFOTU0MDYzNDUtOWYzMS00MWI5LTlhNmYtYzc5MWU2Y2YzYjM5&cindex=3
10:15am - 11:15am
NT CL8 Recent Developments in Nanotechnology 
Brian Wang 
Slides: http://bit.ly/8YYvNS (tip: there are more slides here than will be shown)
https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaMzRmN2VlYTQtODU3My00NjgxLTlhY2ItZDExNmI4OTM4NmRi&sort=name&layout=list&pid=0B2Ij9HPeinaFOTU0MDYzNDUtOWYzMS00MWI5LTlhNmYtYzc5MWU2Y2YzYjM5&cindex=6
11:30am - 12:30pm 
BB CL8 Towards Homo transcendis 
(TBD)
Slides:

14:30-17:30
NT Core Session
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaOGMzMWUxYTItMjIyMy00ODVhLTg2NjEtOWY1MTNhYTZkZTBk&sort=name&layout=list&pid=0B2Ij9HPeinaFOTU0MDYzNDUtOWYzMS00MWI5LTlhNmYtYzc5MWU2Y2YzYjM5&cindex=4

9:16 Ralph: Molecular nonotechnology
Talking about ways of arranging atoms.
If you arrange a few, that will not change the world.
Can you scale that up to arranging large numbers of atoms.
- Replicative manufacturing systems.

We know we can scale things up because biological systems do it.
A seed can creat a tree.
It is possible.
Now, we want to do that in a manufacturing context.
Here we have pictures of robotic arms.
These are making other robotic arms. This is in Japan, the Fanuc Factory Group.
You can have a manufacturing system that is making more mfg system.
There is a property called closure.
Need a few critcal components to make the whole thing work.
- Replication
Many ways.
Von Neumann - a classic. The standard stored program architecture.
Also cooked up an architecture for replicating mfg systems. Also a classic.
Bacteria - very old architecture
NASA Lunar Mfg Facility - proposed in 1980
Land a big seed on the moon. Mine lunar soil.
Drexler's original proposal
Simplified HC assembler - Rob and I cooked up
Exp assembly
MEMS in Skidmore's lecture
Convergent 
Waved hands and mentioned this. Good for nanofactories. Bring together
all these concepts in a nice package.

Q: Santiago: What is it? Self - replication?

Fire is self - replicatingire is self - replicating, but doesn't create anything.
Any replicating mfg system is going to be self-replicating or \"falling down\" in terms of what it can make.

RepRap is partial.
Only real example we have which is pretty well closed is the totality of the mfg system - including people - since we can make all of the things we use to mfg the things we mfg.

Bryce: Energy. Does it need to get the energy itself?

One interesting thing is defining the environment, including energy. On Earth, that means sunshine or whatever source. We have that externally.
If you define your environment correctly you can have a trivial process.
Definition of your system - if done in the right way, becomes boring.
Low cost env - then that is economically interesting.
Part of the whole puzzle of putting things together in an interesting way.

Kinematic Self-Replicating Machines
\"Finest book in the field\" since there really are not any others.
We need to describe something that is going on.
Called the \"Bunny Book\" because of the rabbits on the cover.

- A C program that prints out an exact copy of itself
Contest to find the shortest program to do this.

You can embody the concept in a very short program.
- English
Print the following statement twice, the second time in quotes:
\"Print the following statement twice, the second time in quotes:\"

Try, in your favorite language, to write a self-replicating program.
[JG: I did this in BASIC in 1992.]

- The Von Neumann architecture.
The tape contains instructions on how to build another constructor.
Reads the tape once in order to build another.
Here you see it in the process.
Having read the tape once and followed the instruction, it rewinds the tape, copies it and puts it into the new universal computer and turns on the universal computer.
The instructions are read twice- first time, do them step by step. Second time you are reading them as bits and copying them off.

- Bacteria
Von Neumann figured this out from logic.

- 1980 NASA
Gee. Getting to the moon is expensive so let's make the most of it.
If we land a seed, and that seed could mine lunar soil, build more facility and useful products, then once we landed, we could get the most bang for the buck by building more facility.
While the study in 1980 aimed for replication from a seed, it did not have to be closed. You can have vitamin components delivered, radio instructions. Maybe some critical, lightweight components.
That was back in 1980.
Price tag, $20 bn.
You too could have a lunar mfg facility. Receive instructions from the Earth and build more of itself.
Looked like it would work.

- An assembler
Drexler's idea - a device that would float in fluid. Similar to bacteria.
Extrude another device, two robotic arms would build device.
Using polymer. DNA encodes blueprints. This would be simpler, but similar.
Build a second device, then use Von Neumann to make second polymer to store in the second device.
Vacuum, closely controlled environment.
Each would produce 2 devices. Two original devices would break apart and the process would continue.

Bryce: Where does material come from?

Inside is vacuum. Outside is fluid feedstock. Binding sites would allow feedstock to be brought in. Individual molecules used. You could get access through chemistry.

So this idea was quite influential for awhile.

- Complexity (bits)
V N - cellular automata 2D world.
Exact number of bits in living bacteria, Mycoplasma genitalia 1,160,140
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mycoplasma_genitalium
Venter's group synthesized from scratch and then bootstrap a single bacteria.
So we are seeing the ability to build genomes of that complexity.
Larger in coming years.
Drexler - 100,000,000 bits
Human 6.4 bn bits
NASA 100 bn bits

Systems which range from simple to complex.
Biological from 1 m bits up.
Mfg systems are within design capabilities of people today.

- HC assembler
Nice properties.
The replicating brick proposal.
If you want to maintain a vacuum. 
Brick has XY and Z dimensions.
Extrude another brick along the long axis.
The thing that is coming OUT is coming out along the long axis. The X.
You can extrude the baby-brick from the parent brick.
You have sliding seals.
Atomically precise structures will not let individual atoms or molecules through.
You can extrude through those seals while maintaining a rigid shape.
Rigid shell enables you to extrude.

Robotic arms are building things, moving up and away. Actually moving on platform, building stuff. Reach up to ceiling, as it were, for both input and output any waste products.
Number of details in this I won't go into. 
Uses acoustic design. Broadcast acoustic instructions to it.
Very flexible architecture. The brick doesn't have to store instructions.
Instructions can tell it to build another replicating device, or something useful.

Q: Andrew: One signal would activate all the bricks.

Yep. Build something useful like high-density memory.
One way of dealing with errors. If one replicative cycle has a 95% prob of success. Then one cycle will succeed. You'll get a huge population of bricks. The failed bricks will just be there, twitching, but who cares.
You'll have to filter out useless debris.
Error handling mechanism can be fairly simple.

Q: Just ideas? 

This one is an idea at this point in time.
People who have replicated some -- in Lego blocks.
Designed/ built fairly simple.
Certainly not ones with any economic value.
Devices that can be built today don't have the complexity or the low cost inputs.

If you want to build something like this out of macroscopic components, but the result would be sufficiently expensive - it would be a feasibility study, not economically productive.

Same thing cropped up in Skidmore talk: if you had enough money, you could make it happen, but what is the eonomic driver to make that happen.

- HC replication (3)
Generations of offspring.

Large numbers.

- Broadcast architecture
Instead of following instructions on board the device - like Von Neumann or biology - all replication follows broadcast.
Replicator is smaller and simpler.
Decode process is simpler and easier.
Much easier to redirect assembly process.
Can't in Von Neumann approach to flip between building replicators and building wood.
Safety advantage: stop broadcasting, replicators stop replicating.

- Rotapod
- Exponential Assembly
Hand sketching hand - but robotic arm.
Cameron Slayden and Science / AAAS

Mirror image - kind of fun

- Convergent assembly
Taking components and putting them together into bigger components.
A core concept.
Allows you to go from small to big - result can be very big in not much time.
Does not have to be binary. Can be powers of 10, 5.

- Binary
4 input ports. Half scale. You get 8 parts , 4 at a time. 
Get 4, then 4 more. Now you've got double the scale.
Now, 4 subassembly modules that assemble the ports - each takes 1/4 scale to create half scale inputs, 
And going another step, each has 1/8th scale inputs ...
but you get the idea.
Starting from your goal, you build assemblers down by power.

After 30 steps, you've gone from 1 m parts to 1 nanometer parts.

- Some observations
Speed is scale independent.
The processing time to move things through the various stages is not going to be that long. If average speed is 1 cm /sec, then the final stage is 1 m, stage before is 1/2 m, then all 30 stages will be about 2 m.
A system which can process things, at avg speed of 1 cm / sec. in a few hundred seconds.
Turns out that the scaling arguments breakdown. Last stages you have to play around with things.
A matter of minutes.
We can build product in a matter of minutes where essentially every atom is in the right place.
We can do it inexpensively.
That should allow us to transform mfg.

- C A Error handling.
Turn off the module.
IN the bowels, there is a problem. Close the output port.
Whatever is wrong, we don't know, so we cut it off.
Will slow things down since we don't have that submodule output.
If I'm a working module, I've got 3 inputs - so i'll continue to function but at a degraded pace.

You can also do more clever things:
replacing failed modules
routing around failed modules

Once you have functional system, you can start improving on it in various ways.

Santiago: prototyped?

Concept.
What is economic driver.
That kicks in when you can build thing with precision.
Once driver is there, becomes interesting.

Santiago: When?

look at trend lines. When do we get molecular level mfg.
People don't like change.
They do it because they have to do it.
Will be expensive.
Current methods don't allow us to stay on track.
Only thing left, have to do it.
If we want to keep those trends on track.

Semiconductors are using immersion lithography.
XRays - with reflective optics. Down to 10 nm.
Continue scaling down. At some point, scanning probe microscopes.
At some point, highly parallel SPM to make precise modifications of surface to maintain resolution.
THEN switch to nano mfg because we don't have any choice.
Exhaust all other alternatives.
That is what we'll have to do.

Sasha: Have to be uniform?

Trying to define it easier for me. With 100s of people working on it things would be different.
Is Intel uniform? No, it has optimized bits and pieces.
Early on, was more uniform.
Conceptually simple so we can think about it.
These will turn into more complex architectures.

Sasha: 4 inputs, single output. Uniform. Does it have to stay uniform?

It can go wild. 10 inputs, whatever you want.
To build a specific device, you could tune stages.
Say building rods - they feed rods through, long. Assembly stage, squat.

JG: In silica. Can you do a simulation?

That would be a delightful thing. That has actually been thought about in detail.
Part and parcel of the problem. Not feasible. Don't think about it. As that process starts to move forward - looks possible, then think about it some more.
Feedback loop that gets people going \"Whoosh\"
As you think about it more- really big opportunities here.
My gosh.
In afternoon, we will talk about these enormous.
Gigantic.
Lots of work.
The sheer magnitude is SO BIG. It just begars the imagination.
The predictability that these things are going to happen.
We need to get off our duffs.
These things are just amazing. And I want them.
As people begin to internalize the idea that there is nothing between here and there but a bunch of work.
We just need to make it a goal.
Like going to the moon was a goal.
We have had \"big hairy audacious goals\"
If we do it in a timely fashion, we are going to have a LOT ...
Anyway, that's the pitch.

- Popular misconceptions.
be like living systems
be adaptable 
no more so than your car
Do not put sugar lumps into the gas tank of your car
be very complex
\"Creating LIFE\" - this is wrong. Replicating systems do not need to be complex.
Inherently more complex than automobile --- WRONG
- have on-board instuctions
possible to be non-biological: broadcast model
- be self sufficient (uses only very simple parts)
Idea of robotic arm being dropped into forest - doesn't make sense.
Nonetheless, all these ideas are floating around and create infinite problems and result in funding being directed elsewhere.

- Terminology
\"self replication\" has become \"nanofactories\"
Much less problematic.
\"s r\" has implcations which are - like \"vital force\" unfortunate emotional connections.
As you talk about these things, be aware that the words you use are important.

\"Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Imaging\" - until they dropped the nuclear stuff. MRI nicely avoided that - magnets are OK.
Everyone is happy. That took care of that.
\"s r\" is not the best of terms. \"nanofactory\" is better at explaining what is happening.

- Mfg costs will be low
Core reality. Impact across all mfg products similar to computers.
Computer costs have been dropping. 
We'll see that all across the board.

- video on nanofactories

10:19
10:23

10:39 Next, marvelous speaker. Technological achievements.
Blog on nanotechnology.

Following the trends, the currents. Introducing us to what has been going on.

Brian Wong: I have my blog. 

- Latest Developments and Current Capabilities in Nanotechnology

- Complexity Comparison
This room, to New York, size difference.
100 nm on each dimension, something the size of a baseball stadium.

- Overview of the Talk
2D and 3D Nanoscale patterning and manufacturing
Main purpose- something purchasable by a group.

Quantum dots
Special kind - breaking into commercial applications

Self Assembly
Leverage what is naturally occuring

Memristors
Use nanowires 

Sensors and electronics in living cells
Carbon nanotubes & graphene 

- Aerosol Jet Printing and Printable Electronics
First of the 2D/3D is from Optimec.
Carbon nanotube ink.
Can work to higher speed.
10 microns thick- larger size
Electron mobility very fast
In right situation, better than going to lithography.
Can produce in a cabinet rather than a large clean room.
Shorter and then longer production runs
Larger and larger volumes.
Part of an industry from rapid mfg, using 20 ways to produce
extruding stuff
$1 bn per year industry
Printed electronics is bigger.
Far slower than competing lithography.
Might get up to GHz speed and faster processing
Nanoimprint
Smaller feature sizes, smaller than extreme ultra-violet. 13 nanometers
metallic-glass molds with 3D features as small as 13 nanometers.
Theoretic size limit is the size of a single atom 
carbon nanotubes templates in development

Emiliano: Below 20 nm - issue of building - or flow of electrons?

Several challenges. Problem is high volume mfg.
Only 20 wafers per hour.
Need 200.
Sq feet per month.

Resists which control - everything becomes tougher. Leakages.

E: Not fundamental problems.

Well, 35 down to 28. Had 1000 engineers overcome a series of miracle.
Come up with new mix - not just pure Silicon.
When did mountain become too high, and alternate path become better?
Semiconductor roadmap.
Doing smaller next year, bye-bye kind of thing.
OR keep pushing existing lith with things closer,tighter together.
Big cost debate for which application.
A lot of stuff that the whole industry wrestles with.
Nikon makes lens, etc. Everyone has to work together.

Nanoprint - e-beam stamp once ...

- Fab in a Box
Not a lot of people behind it.
Focused Ion Beam (FIB) 6 nm feature size.

- Fab in a Box
How to make something simple - repeatable system.
A T devices in under 24 hours

- Nanotip Based Patterning
Current resolution of about 15 nm could go to 1nm
E-beam lithography systems cost up to $5 million
IBM\u2019s Desktop nanotip system will cost $100,000.
extremely small silicon tip cantilevered like AFM
thermal energy at the tip break weak bonds within the material

Created mini-Matterhorn.
They did it at 15 nm. Cost 15x less than e-Beam.
Cost is possible.

- Zyvex
Tip-Based Nanofabrication (DARPA funded) to make atomically precise quantum dots
Tip never physically contacts anything
Protection atoms leave into the gas phase
Building blocks arrive via gas phase
Is a scalable process
Extensible to many other material systems
Invariant STM tip technology

Ralph and Robert worked at Zyvex.
Scanning tips to mfg

- Zyvex APM (atomically precise mfg)
ALE growth ...

- Quantum Dots
the smaller the size of the dot, the larger the band gap
bigger gap -> more energy is needed to excite the dot -> more energy is released when returns to its resting state
Quantum dots for Quantum Film \u2013 better cameras (InVisage)
Quantum dots for better LED Lighting and LCD displays
QD laser 25 Gbps communication \u2013 Fujitsu
QD better infrared sensors 
(2X now, then20-40 times better)

Useful for cameras, lighting.
Have made them to nearly atomic scale - 3 nm x 3 nm size
University of Alberta

- Quantum Dot Devices
*Quantum dot solar cells
*Quantum dot cameras
*Quantum dot displays improve efficiency of LCDs by 40%
*QuantumFilm image sensors are the world\u2019s first commercial quantum dot-based image sensors, replacing silicon. 
*InVisage delivers 4x higher performance, 2x higher dynamic range
- Self Assembly
*Guided Self-assembly
*Surface topography
*Surface wetting
*Electrostatic force
*Magnetic force
Get very precise, regular structures.
Guide it. Work from molecular scale on up.

- HP now has 3 nm memristors
*provide controllable resistance
*1 nonsecond switching times
*memcapacitors and meminductors too

Structure retains what happened to it

- Memristors for Memory
Hybrid - memristors and normal

Erez: What are memristors?

Alternative to flash memory.
They have a lot of potential.
Look at electronic behavior of it. Like synapses.
But use it to replace flash memory - but with higher density.
Does not require power, like DRAM.

Erez: How does it work?

Complicated. 1000s of papers around.
How does a flash cell work - fittings around the layer.
could have memory and processing side by side
Less delay in your structure.
Memory here, processing here.
Longer delay.

Andrew: Number of papers trying to figure out how they work?

Describing it.

Andrew: But people who built it understand the principles?

Yeah. Stan Williams.
Basically like FPGA - hardware that can be adjusted on the fly. The processing structure. Does the same kind of thing. Just discovered a year ago, but coming with commercial application by using this other existing technology.

- Nano-enhanced Regular Tech
*Concrete and metal
*Research on the nanoscale that provides insight into improved control of the properties
*Nanograins for metal, almost no-creep concrete
*Hydrophobic sand
*Desert sand made hydrophobic by additive SP-HFS 1609
*The large rolls sandwich the sand between layers of polyethylene and can be produced in lengths of up to 50 metres. \u201cThe coating is done in 30 or 45 seconds,\u201d said Hareb. \u201cWe have the capacity of manufacturing 3,000 tonnes per day.\u201d
*Allows for irrigation much more effectively, roll back the desert.
*Engineering properties : composites, polymers, doping
*Nanomembrane : Desalination and water purification
*Larger Holes (4-5 nm) in zeolite for more efficient oil refining. Crack larger molecules.
*Cars, planes, buldings, subs
- Nanomed today
10-20 ways to use proteins to deliver medical functions
- Nanoshells \u2013Optical Legos
*Gold nanoshells can be used for cancer treatment
*Nanoshells are about 20 times smaller than red blood cells
*Different sizes interact with different wavelengths of light

Chiara: Get to disease?

Yes, just take out the tumor.

Chiara: Why?

Get it just there with magnets or other cell that would go to that tumor.
Virus that binds to it. Once it is all there, when you turn on your beam, it heats up to temperature and burns out the tumor.

- One Cubic Micron Devices, Sensors and Claytronics and chips in living cells
*Leading edge of today
*Phoenix Processor consumes on average 29.6pW in standby mode and 2.8pJ/cycle in active mode. Runs on cubic mm of battery
*2000 instructions to be run once every 10 minutes for sensors
*3 micron X 3 micron by 0.5 micron chips were placed into living cells
Racquel Welch Fantastic Voyage.
Have put something into a living cell.
(Not human due to that FDA thing)
Able to go in. These things have fewer processing. Need a battery to go with it using silicon.
Phoenix is the right power design to operate with the power you have. Use a very small battery or beam in the power
- Carbon nanotubes
about 1000 tons produced per year

*500 ton/year factory : Cnano Technologies
*400 ton/ year Showa Denka, 200 ton/year Bayer
*Context (carbon fiber, kevlar, copper, steel, cement)
*CNT-reinforced aluminum is only around one third that of steel, but is as hard as steel (Bayer Materials work)
*Could become cheaper than alloy method for making strong aluminum
Lots of carbon fibre
More precise carbon nanotubes in kg quantities or less

You want to find ways to mix it in with something else to get more volume.
Mix with Aluminum. 
Take 10 tons of it - mix with polymer, Aluminum.
Cost, volumes

Emiliano: How long can they be?
Usually microns in size, or less. 100,000 nm might be typical.
Would look like a black powder.
But under microscope, you'd see the spagetti

E: Price?
Purity, multiwall, single wall
$100,000 per gram or kg. Can go up or down.
Min $100 per kg.
Expensive.
Especially compared to bulk materials

- Graphene
roll this up to make a carbon nanotube
not in mass production yet
electrons move FAST on this
*electrons in graphene 100 times faster than electrons in silicon
*Stronger than carbon nanotubes
*Graphene Ultracapacitors with double energy density of current ultracapacitors
*Still in lab, not in mass production
*Polymers with 0.1% graphene platelets were 40% stronger
If putting small flat pieces, how does it bond.
How well do you transfer strength to bulk, macro material?

- Nanocomp Technologies
*Bulk Carbon Nanotubes.
*Better for radiation and electromagnetic shielding
*EM shielding at one third the weight of copper
*Superior electrical properties already exist for antennas
*Can tune multiple properties in their carbon nanotube sheets. 
*University Dayton \uf0e8 500 feet of 12-inch-wide fabric per day at a pilot plant (Fuzzy Fiber)
*Next 60 inch wide sheets 
Lke wood fibre to newspaper.
1 cm lengths here.
Univ of Dayton
That black thing with 4 people beside it is their sheet.
Not stronger than steel at this point.
Target is for airplanes to replace copper for shielding.
Take 2000 lbs out of satellite. You are saving $20 m.
Using for antennas.
Trying to tune other aspects of the material.
DARPA - bulletproof vests or other things for vehicles.

-Lunar Cement and Concrete
*2.4-metre mirror like Hubble's
*600 kilograms (1300 pounds) of Moon dust
* 60 kg (130 pounds) of epoxy
* 6 kg (13 pounds) of carbon nanotubes
* less than a gram of aluminium
*Built a 30-centimetre disc in 2008
Make cement on the moon.
Most buildings on Earth are mudbrick
If you could make the features much better with carbon nanotubes, then mudbrick building could withstand a hurricane.
Need enough volume of it.
Use genetically engineered crop to produce expoxy.
Different way to think about making stronger housing in 3rd world.
- Properties
*Strength of materials
*Conductance 
*Electron mobility
*Thermal properties
*Do more or better with less material (stronger, electrical properties)
*Find things you could not do with plastic, steel, etc.
*Do something completely new
Q & A
Open for Questions

http://nextbigfuture.com

Andrew: Water tables. Pipes lost water under cities? Retain water?

They make material, coat the sand with a liquid.
In terms of leaking infrastructure, would be difficult to use the sand approach. You'd have to dig down to the pipe - then you'd have any number of ways to fix.
Robots could crawl down the pipes.
Tar-like material over smaller hole.
Textile, wallpaper over, apply gunk to it.
Look in more detail to apply and fix it.
Pipes where they know, the pipe is open. No holes yet, but at a step in the production process. Put the sand, then the pipe.

Andrew: Can you say, how they build. Layers?

Bulldozers. 3-4 inches thick. Then push dirt back on top.
For next 100s of years, using 100x less water in that area.

: Research in reducing friction.

Yes. Any force can be vastly reduced.
Haven't see it widely applied like teflon.
Definitely in the labs

: Anything reducing friction of air over a surface.

For hype
Nanostructured Nickel Magnesium Oxide
the engineers added metal nickel to magnesium oxide, a ceramic. The resulting material contained clusters of nickel atoms no bigger than 10 square nanometers, a 90 percent size reduction compared to today\u2019s techniques
Enables terabyte computer storage
By introducing metallic properties into ceramics, engineers could develop a new generation of ceramic engines able to withstand twice the temperatures of normal engines and achieve fuel economy of 80 miles per gallon. 
Non epitaxial growth to interface incompatible material
University of Maryland has created a new way to produce high quality semiconductor materials critical for advanced microelectronics and nanotechnology.
No clean room is needed
Previously incompatible material can be interfaced
no lattice matching needed
no thickness constraints
simpler and cheaper than epitaxy process
Designer Materials \u2013 inorganic nanocomposites
nanocomposites with desired properties can be designed and fabricated by first assembling nanocrystals and nanorods coated with short organic molecules, called ligands.
These ligands are then replaced with clusters of metal chalcogenides, such as copper sulfide. As a result, the clusters link to the nanocrystal or nanorod building blocks and help create a stable nanocomposite. The team has applied this scheme to more than 20 different combinations of materials, including close-packed nanocrystal spheres for thermoelectric materials and vertically aligned nanorods for solar cells
Billions of self-assembled, light-sensing, DNA nanostructures
foundation for molecular-scale logic system
Can absorb and react to light 
Can trigger release of another wavelength
Reconfigurable Metamaterials Terahertz Lens
ultimate metamaterial lens \uf0e8change all of its properties
spacing and the rotation of the split-ring resonators
Split ring resonators \u2013 gold ring with small cut
Heating or cooling changes how lens bends light
Can flip direction light bends

Nanopantography
Nanopantography uses microlenses placed on a substrate (the surface that is being written upon) to divide a single ion beam into billions of smaller beams, each of which writes a feature on the substrate for nanotech device production
simultaneous impingement of an Ar+ beam and a Cl2 effusive beam on an array of 950-nm-diam lenses can be used to etch 10-nm-diam features into a Si substrate, a reduction of 95x. 
Simulations indicate that the focused \u201cbeamlet\u201d diameters scale directly with lens diameter, thus a minimum feature size of 1 nm should be possible with 90-nm-diam lenses that are at the limit of current photolithography. 
We expect nanopantography to become a viable method for overcoming one of the main obstacles in practical nanoscale fabrication: rapid, large-scale fabrication of virtually any shape and material nanostructure. Unlike all other focused ion or electron beam writing techniques, this self-aligned method is virtually unaffected by vibrations, thermal expansion, and other alignment problems that usually plague standard nanofabrication methods. This is because the ion focusing optics are built on the wafer. 
Thermoelectric
Roadmap
Block Co-polymers
Block copolymers
UCSB claims self assembly block co-polymer features on silicon (5-20nm). Making improvements (like cross linking for faster manufacturing)
Advanced Lithography and Beyond
Mainstream: lithography, nanoparticles for medicine and more, carbon nanotubes and other nanotech and nanostructured materials, Scanning Probe Microscopy and other microscopy, aerojet printing, arrays of dip pens, MEMS/NEMS, nano-enhanced regular tech, better sensors, detection devices and tests
Enabling: Computational Chemistry, Superlenses, Lab on a chip
Progressing: DNA nanotechnology, self assembly, graphene electronics, quantum dots, quantum computing, nanostructures for tissue engineering, nanomembranes/nanofiltration, nanophotonics, molecular electronics, spintronics, plasmonics
Basic capabilities and funded development: atomic layer expitaxy and deposition, mechanosynthesis
Other: RNA, DNA, proteins, avogadro scale computing, claytronics, synthetic life

Beyond CMOS
Emerging Research Device Technology Candidates are being evaluated. A list of devices being considered to go beyond CMOS.
- Nano-electro Mechanical Switches
- Collective Spin Devices
- Spin Torque Transfer Devices
- Atomic Switch / Electrochemical Metallization
- Carbon-based Nanoelectronics
- Single Electron Transistors
- CMOL / Field Programmable Nanowire Interconnect (FPNI)

Microscopy
STM
SPM
AFM
Superlenses
Hyperlens

Diamond
Switch higher frequencies (10-120 Ghz) and voltages for power chips (MESFET, rf, 100 watt x-bands)
High power devices applications include satellite communications, telecoms base stations and compact, high resolution phased-array radars
2 tons of power electronics per railcar can be 50 pounds
Great thermal conductivity, reaching 2,000 Wm-1\u00b0C-1 for mono-crystal, which is the highest of any solid material (4-5X higher than silicon carbide and copper)
diamond is vastly better substrate
Single crystal diamond across wafers much bigger than an inch and a half
polycrystalline diamond films (5 nm grains of carbon, 20-30 atoms across)
nanocrystalline diamond onto 300-mm (12-inch) wafers in lab
Commercially 50-100mm polycrystalline diamond wafers, 150mm soon
ADT\u2019s ultrananocrystalline diamond (UNCD) is naturally insulating but can be made highly conductive by doping it with nitrogen
Doping (change and control properties) and scaling problems solved
Silicon MEMS operate at megahertz
Diamond MEMS can be gigahertz
Computational Chemistry
Computational chemistry is a branch of chemistry that uses computers to assist in solving chemical problems
Computing power and methods have advanced to where it is now possible to use molecular simulations to predict important engineering properties of real materials with a high degree of accuracy.
Anton Supercomputer, Nvidia Tesla
NanoEngineer-1 is an open-source (GPL) 3D multi-scale modeling and simulation program for nano-composites with special support for structural DNA nanotechnology.

Nanoparticles
Nanoparticles for diagnosis and delivery of medicine
Tobacco mosaic virus is like a 18-nanometer wide straw, which can hold gene silencing RNA
2007 total market for nanotechnology-enabled drug delivery will rise to $26 billion by 2012 from its current size of $3.39 billion, representing a compound annual growth rate of 37%. 

Advanced Lithography
Double, triple & quadruple patterning (down to 11 nm)
E-beam
IBM 3D Nanotip based patterning
EUV (with quadruple patterning down to 5 nm)
Nanoimprint (13nm now \uf0e81-2 nm with CNT)
Self assembly (down to 2 nm)
Plasmonic lithography
Resolution augmentation through photo-induced deactivation (RAPID) lithography 40 nm now (10nm)
Ion beams
Through silicon via (other 3D techniques)
Different materials
Long List, Different Ways Forward, things will work down to 1-2 nm eventually and at reasonable cost and volume (Intel plans for 8nm in 2017)

DNA Nanotechnology
DNA origami
DNA movement and placement of nanoparticles and carbon nanotubes
New bases and chemistry
DNA separation of carbon nanotubes
DNA factory (50 steps now)
All computer circuits made in DNA
3d DNA Nanotechnology
DNA boxes

DNA tubes and other shapes
Defining Nanotechnology
Nanotech has many definitions
It has to do with very small things
HP Believes Memristor Memory could be better than Flash by 2013
Graphene Mass Production
Rice University - Stronger superacids can separate graphite into sheets of graphene and bring them into solution. 
Graphene Synthesis on Cubic SiC/Si Wafers could make volume graphene electronics

This afternoon we'll be discussing, if we had something like that, implications would be kind of sweeping.

[applause]

BRIAN WANG
OVERVIEW
2D 3D nanoscalle Patterning and manufacturing
quantum dots
self assembly
memristors
sensors and electronics in licing cells
carbon nanotubules and graphene

Aersol jet printer for printing electronics, flat rate of production

qunatum dot is a small piece of semiconductor, smaller the size the larger the band gap
bigger the gap thie more energy required to excite the dot

HP now has 3 nm memristors - replacement for flash drive, nano scale resistors
provide controllable resistors
1 nanosecond switching times
memcapacitors and meminductors too, physcial structure can retain what happens to it
Memristors for Memory - hybrid

Nano-enhanced Regular Tech
Hydrophobic Sand
You can save irrigation water by layaring the foundation with this sand and keep the water closer to the roots

Nanomed
nanoshells - optical legos
20 times smaller than red blood cell
different sizes interact with different wavelengths of light
gold nanoshells can be used to treat cancer
deliver the particles somehow to cancer cells
laser heats up and burns up cancer cell

Criticism of Nanotech, Fantastic voyage - Raquel Welch
Cubic Micron Devices, Sensors and Claytronics and chips in living cells
the leading edge of nanotech today
phoenix processor uses little power from little battery or beam power to it

Carbon Nanotubes
500 tons/year factory: Cnano tech
for fevlar, walls, carbon fiber, copper, steel, cement, aluminum, polymers
CNT reinforced alum is only 1/3rd weight of steel but just as hard
could become cheaper than alloys

Length so far is 100,000 nanometers a few microns
looks like a black powder

Lunar cement
2.4 meter mirror like hubble's
600kg of moon dust, 60 kg of epoxy, 6 kg nanotubes, less than 1 kg of aluminum = cement

http://nextbigfuture.com

11:23 [applause]
Merkle: 5 min break.
11:33
Andrew Hessel
Audio: http://bit.ly/bTibXS
How are you guys feeling?
Like eating a big meal. You need to sleep.

Towards homo evolutis
There has been a lot of information thrown at you.
Last year, I gave one talk and walked away.
What I learned, some of what I talk about should have come at the beginning. 
Would have set the stage for the biotech.
What I'm going to say now should come at the end.
Not all of this is immediately useful.
Biotech in particular, generating tons of data.
I'm going to take you one step further.

Talk is called \"Towards homo evolutis\"
Used by Juan Enrique in 2009
Synth genomics
We can write genomes, including our own
That changes the dynamic of everything going forward.
I'm thinking of this compulsively.
I started with computers.
Human operating system has been stable for 3 billion years.
I did this in the biotech realm for 7 years with researches and since I left I have focused almost exclusively on synthetic bio, ability to write DNA and create organisms

E. coli. looks like a hot dog. All it does is grow.
When it gets to a certain size, it pinches and duplicates.
It's like making sausages
because they double every 15 minutes, overnight you can have billions.
The true exponential growth.
Today you can do a bacterial genome in an afternoon

I had 60-70 years of stored bacteria.
We put a stab of bacteria on growth medium and put a cork in them just like wine
Still viable 60 years later.
In a minus 80 freezer, might last 1000s of years.
They find bacteria miles and miles down from thousands of years ago and they are still viable
WHat was really incredible is freeze drying them as another way to store them
put it under vacuum, which sublimes off the water quickly, then heat seal the tube.
It's what happens when anything gets exposed to space
You could boot up bacteria from a billion years ago if you could find it.
Really tiny genomes but very complicated organism, we don't unsderstand them let alone our own genome
They feed us in our guts and we have 10 times the number of their cells than ours
They've been to space, Dan Barry took a few trillion with him, which is fine since they can be exposed to space and live and just float

E. Coli are my favorite organism, they're like my gf

my new gf is synthia
her dad is Craig Venter, incredible guy, kind of a dick oops no he needs to be, you need to be strong to push over a huge field like biology and he has
In 95 he sequenced the first bacteria using Henry T Fords model
Then the human genome with Celera
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Celera_Corporation
ten years later we did synthia

You guys have the opportunity to author genomes.
You've closed the cycle.

YOU MUST UNDERSTAND THIS:
In my world view, cells are computers, they literally process information, just not electronics, chemicals. They do it extremely well, with parallel processing.

Cells are analogous to computer FACTORIES.
Bacteria are at the center of each snowflake.
I'm a network of 100 T cells.

DNA is a language. A programming language.
It is digital. You can read it unambigously. Everything else in a cell is happening in a fluid. We have to kill it to study it.
DNA is easy and cheap to read.
Run it through a sequencer, then let the computers crunch it.

ion torrent - best reader.
Not ATGC. They use cute symbols instead. [For Arabic users, for example.]
http://www.iontorrent.com/

It's a very very sensitive pH meter, when a base is added it kicks off an ? Which raises the pH that can be seen and then correlated to which base was added 
It would not surprise me at all if it fits in the side of a cell phone.
Microscope in a cell phone.
http://singularityhub.com/2010/07/06/10-cellphone-microscope-wins-3-awards-heading-to-africa-for-tests/

Comprehension

It is just going to be free one day. Bottleneck in the short term is how to store that data.
Cost per gigabyte is low, but not falling as fast as sequencing cost of DNA.
You can sequence a human genome in a few days, but it takes a year of analysis.
Alumina
Bacteria - easier. 
You have to think at metabolic pathway level.

[big hairy network diagram]
This looks like FaceBook.
I can't make heads or tails of this.
Tools we have to measure interactions is not up to the task yet.
Will take some really sophisticated programs.
How then do you apply it to humans.

Work moving into industrials - no FDA approval.
Get to market faster.
People just walking away from human health.

23andMe and other companies. Incredible.
5 years ago, study took millions of dollars.
Now you can get it for, like, $4.99.
Will link seamlessly with FaceBook someday.

I've been done twice.
This is really cool. 
Only going to get better.
Expect full exome one day.
We'll find a business model for it.
Some of you were at the meeting. FDA has just woken up.
What relationship will you have with your own DNA.
Maybe go get a law degree.

Writing

This is my passion now. 
26 letters and a bit of punctuation lets you write any book, in English.

Recombinant DNA. Cut and splice.
This is analogous to that process - ransom note writing.
This took me 1 hour and 20 min.
Can't be automatically spell checked.
Scissors and glue.
Doing DNA required 1000s of scissors, you can't see you are cutting,
make a change ... oooh.

In 2004, doing all this in software.
GenoCAD \"what do you want to make today\"
Editors on-line - they don't look really friendly yet. You kind of have to be geeky. This tool makes you better than anyone in biotech 10 years ago.
Here, you hit PRINT, it goes into synth queue and you get it in the mail in a few days. They are getting quicker and quicker.

20% of you, experienced in biotech, but 80% have no idea of where to start.
We've got to change some things in this system.

Santiago: Do we know the semantics enough?

Different problem. You can copy something much larger, but we do not have that whole model yet.
Most sales are single proteins at end of metabolic pathway.
You have the capabilities of a major biotech company.
What do you want to do?

Dean Kamen. Grew FIRST. Love that story.

I worked in biotech. Invested $1 bn per year. Didn't get new drug for 7 yrs.
Walked away. Went to Thailand.
Scary when the biotech business can't see the vision of writing DNA code.
iGEM - 
From one team, just like US- FIRST, 
last year 112 teams. Each kid is one of the next generation of genetic engineers.
Others are \"reverse\" engineering.
These are makers.
When their rubber hits the road, you will see some really interesting things happen.

First computer. First were toys. Spent a lot of money on them.
Still so cool you wanted to go play with them.
iGEM is still at the toy stage.
It is getting covers of prestigious journals.
Top of the drugs being sold today - literally 80% are single proteins and anti-bodies which you could knock off with these.

5 genes in Canada. Made national news.
1.2 m in funding follow on.
The power of this technology 3 years ago.
Mackenzie in.
You may have missed, - he is going to Geneva.
He has a BSc, not a PhD.
Who do you admire in computer industry -
Bill Gates
Larry - these guys didn't finish their degree.
Stick in the rigid educationalpathway, which addresses the MIDDLE,
This is the first school to address exponential technology.
You are all a little tweaked.
I hope you focus on biotech. here now. Waiting for this to happen.
It is also virtual.
If we were growing microbes, we'd be in violation of so many rules.
Labs have to move digital.
Rob Philips Digital Radiance - cells you can fly into.
Kids have trouble looking at magic of cell in flat 2D structure.
When you can dig in.
Digitize entire lab.
Game that was actually accurate. The old techniques used in a modern lab.
The next labs - the ones you will be building - may be outsourced.

Next week. Mon-Tues. A biofab.
http://www.biofab.org/

Academia does things pretty well, but business does it better.
There will be biofabs like Kinkos.
Vaccine development.
Something you want to make.
Will not stay at bacterial level for long.
Dozens of iGEM teams.
I'm compulsive. Maybe arrogant. I called every university in Canada and said, \"Get students involved in iGEM. They will know more than you.\"
I sometimes had to go through whole phonebook, but I'd find one.
What are you going to make with this technology.
There are millions of living things.
Incredible diversity.
For 100s of years people went around just cataloging stuff.
Billions of things at microbial level.
Try the bottom of the ocean - vents.
Life just teems.
So exciting what can be made with DNA code. Just ATGC.
What nature selected for.
Nature is a bitch. A competitive environment. 
Surprising it all works.
As you are doing your team projects:
Water / Power / Upcycling
Chances are there is something biological.
you have tools at your disposal. Put on your hat and look a little bit out.

One of the first - biofuels. Not the best to work on - a few bucks per liter.
Support around this space. Not a lot of FDA regulation.
Turn sunlight into something really useful.
Doesn't have to be fuels. Any component of any living organism.
Cross platform.
Do it for environmental remediation.
Biology will clean up mess in Gulf now.

Producing plastics.
More and more going biological.
Anything you make with biology can be degraded by biology.

Organovo. So much fun.
In higher organisms, you have a genome that can support entire process.
We can't measure that process easily.
Maint and operation.
We are not hacking up baby embryos
We can put all the design into a printer and the cells can fuse together.
Maybe Kamen will have a new bioleague in US - FIRST.
Any ideas? iGEM and US FIRST would be really interesting.

I really like microbes for space.
Still wrong taking the seed.
Take a blank seed and a DNA synthesizer.
Tipping point in Peter's mind.
Make a vaccine here and bring these tools to the world in a way that is as common as our laptops.

Put it into bioreactors. Make really powerful products.
When we get past yeasts into furry, purring organisms, we won't be so scared of them.
1000s of species of dog that we bred from wolf.
Put a chip in their brains. Lions and tigers that are docile. Really cool stuff.

We still need rockets, but one day we will be sending Coke can sized tools to other worlds to grow ecosystem before we get there.

H1N1 hit when I went to Mexico.
They shut down Guadalajara.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guadalajara,_Jalisco
If I sneezed, people ran away.

Fear spreads faster than any virus.

We need a distributed sensor network.

[photo of sneeze]
Not missle defense, it is SNIFFLE defense.
Some of the things we need in the world going forward.

DIYbio is being targeted as a potential threat.
Part of the first layer of expertise.
Lot more risk of scientists focused on publication,
not regulation/risks.
I've seen really scary projects in biotech.
Nature has tried to tweak genetic code.
Maybe nature doesn't do it because, it would be like having 100 different internets. They would not talk to each other.
Be really careful about - not regulation, regulation - which would choke economy and drive opportunities elsewhere.

My work is cracking the failure of drug development.
Health is not on an exponential.
60 years of innovation.
Process is so complex with so many stakeholders.
Never been able to accelerate.
Regardless of how much money we put in.
To apply data we are collecting and move forward.
N1 medicine.
Each of us, there is no control for our complex lives.
We are getting sophisticated enough to evaluate those risks.
Make medicines for ourselves.

You want your own biotech company. Buy 1 share. You'll be a full member.
Grow like Linux.
- cooperative membership
Fascinating people.
Like open source, it can go into the corporate realm.

Derek: Pink army?
Just waiting for energies to stabilize.
I do want you to become members.

Santiago: How mitigate risks that make you afraid?

What makes you afraid is different from what makes me afraid.
If I had end stage cancer, I'd be in a different place.

\"You are here\" a new branch to this evolutionary tree.
This took 4 b years.
Synthia - always copy first before you start to 
100 m years per calendar year.
May be much faster depending on tools and technologies.
You might have synthetic pets in 40 years? 20 years?
syn and methlyations.

Darwin did not see this coming.
That we'd start to forward engineer.
Natural selection does not apply to us anymore.

Can we make enzymes that make diamond.
or just expresss it in our skin.
Without those constraints - we can build the environments these creatures live in.
Homo evolutis.
We reimagine ourselves in this century.

That is something to think about.

Venter is teased about playing god.
I think it is a responsibility we have to take seriously.
Something spiritual about it as well.

It has to be about doing good things. Not profit.
We need to work together to do that.

These little bacteria growing on a plate will change the world.
It will make us happy.
And be a little weird (smiley face with three eyes).
12:30 [applause]

Q: Is lack of concern from DIY based on ...
A: All of the above. They are self-identified, coming to meetings.
Recreating all the equipment.

Q: Erez. Thank you for a wonderful visionary talk. Humanity genome will be about an Exobyte.
A: One copy. Dynamic genome analysis.
6x faster data generator than Moore's law.
Maybe we'll get an up-step.

Q: Erez: Drug mfg today is not new technology, needs a new system.
A: Yes. 
Some countries have assisted suicide. Why do they need an FDA?
As we get more and more sensor technologies, more will become automatic.

Q: Sasha: As we translate genetic information into digital - is there a consistency?
Q: Gene ontologies quite early on. Pretty good structure. Other layers have different formats. Still in early days.
Bio-brick.
Doesn't have a business model yet.
May end up something like Apple app store.
Just pick up the seeds, instead of going to Home Depot.

Cross over may be food. As we start to do boutique food. You know the designs, health effects. More interest in the outputs of genetic engineering. Design also does the manufacturing.

Q: Tony: Synthia - how much do we understand.
A: Copying the gene is easy. We don't understand how it does all the replications. People are hacking that. We'll get first protocells.
Life is modular.
We are 100 T computers.
Have a good lunch and a great summer.

Salim: Stress over ignite?
Rationale for this. Never enough time to get them done in a proper way.
This is deliberate. A little bit stressful. We want to see these cracks, so when you in the real world, it is a lot more polished.
Will be around for feedback this evening.

Candice: Order?
Salim: Randomly.

== end

Afternoon pad: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul16-NT-afternoon

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun30-NCS
"Wednesday 
6/30/2010 
14:30
Brad Templeton

NCS Core track

Slides: [Manuel Zaera]
All Our Ideas: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10ncscore

Kathryn will review later looking for any [ref] markers.
She will attempt to fill these in with references.

2:29 Lead in: Flight of the Conchords. \"The Humans are Dead\"
Binary solo:
0000001
00000011
0000001
00000011
0000001
0000001
0000001
0000001

2:31 \"In the know\" segment: 

Brad: Our goal is to breakout. Come up with ideas nobody else has come up with.
This isour first attempt at this with our large group. We'll see what we can do.

Robotic transportation. Robots driving cars. Cars driving themselves.
Train systems already.
Heathrow - pod cars on dedicated track.
What about ordinary roads?
Studying this. Incredibly large numbers around cars.
Think about the future city. Mostly the first world city. But we have people from more chaotic cities.
Wired everywhere.
Gigabits of connectivity everywhere.
Cameras
Sensors everywhere
Data about movement.
Reality could be very different from today.
In 20th century: suburbanization.
Could reverse or become worse.

Got excited about cars driving themselves. Discovered they are REAL.
May have visitor - hisroboticPrius drives him around town.
What is future about it is the legal, ethical battles.
Human beings are terrible drivers.
We kill 40,000 people every year. 1.2 m around the world.
Largest cause of death between childhood diseases and diseases of old age.
Cities session ended with a call for end of traffic accidents.

Transportation safety $230 Bn. Worldwide 2.5% of GDP 8 cents per mile.
Gas is above 8 cents per mile. This cost - your share of the cost of traffic accidents -- was highest.
We spend billions of hours behind the wheel.
Accidents due to inattention, drinking. Robots will NOT have inattention. Won't drink and drive.

60% of land in LA belongs to \"the automobile\"
25% of energy use goes into cars.
Building cars also takes energy.
Onething we replace quickly that we could do something about.

Artificialhorse intelligence. More like a bug. Not a lot of AI. Why people have already done it.

About 5 years ago, the military -
[clip showing how DARPA grand challenge #2 - humans could not keep up with robot driver]
Sponsored contest. Small teams, even individuals. Astounding results.
First contest, no one made it 7 miles.
Some of these went 150 miles.
[another vido - cars goes down ravine]
That was 2005. Main sensor broke and car still worked.

What does it mean for how we live? for safety? for our cities?

Third contest was to go on streets - 
[video of self driving car with some rock guitar backing BOSS

Ubuntu LINUX.
Terabyte of storage.
Monitor to debug things.
Inertial system.
\"How does itkeep from running over dog?\" Laser.
\"Complicated?\" Started about a year and a half ago.
Maybe by 2020you will be able to buy this.
Get from place to place without having to worry about it.]

18 months to build a revolution with a small team.
Dangerous to predict when a technology will arrive.
I want to tell you that you can alreadybuy cars that automatically park themselves, keep fixed spacing, tells you what car is near -- for lane changes, spotting pedestrians, read road signs, find timing of stop lights, parking garage pillar avoidance. Can save 100,000s of lives
Elimiate importation of oil

: Ulitimate, non-killer app.
This is a way for softare to save the world.
Here is the autonomous Prius. Fisherman's Wharf to Oakland without touching the wheel.
Not science fiction.
Push button on cell phone.
Get car in seconds. 
Arrive at elevator of building you are going to - without centralized intervention.

Ability to go in \"right vehicle for trip.\" SUV for skiing. More than one child: minivan.
Vast majority of trips are 1 person, short distance rips.
Energy efficnet. Greener than transit.
In BTUs (unit of energy used in US, not Britain),
People in car: 1.5 (the half person is in the trunk) 3400 BTU/passenger mile.
Buses use more - on average. Not all are full.
Results in US - not as good as Europe and Asia.
NYC system is only a bit better than cars.
Japan is twice as good.
Electric scooter is 10x as good.
Amazing to see
500-600 lbs of weight per passenger. Start and stopall the time.
Not able to compete with lightweight vehicles.

If robots could make us tolerate electric cars, that would be great. 
If lighter, much more efficinet.
Movie, \"Who killed the electric car?\"

Long time to recharge. Hard to find place to charge. 
What if we had people use standard batteries.
We CAN build theese vehicles. Harder to get people to use them.

This is a chance to apply Moore's Law to Transportation
Competing innovators vs 19 C
Compare: Early adopters vs municipal gov. admin. 
Big infrastructures vs bottom-up growth with almost no new infrastructure

Individuals buy the cars - happens amorphously - ground swell - rather than a whole new network with planning and infrastructure - if you allow people to ride on the existing infrastructure - people can ride on that! 

It begins in expensive vehicles 
but what costs $10,000 today - will cost $100 in ten years

Down the road you will be able to buy a car, that if you are going to enter an accident, the safest thing will be to let go of the wheel and let the robotics take over. 

one test - school of fish - do you succeed in touching the fish in a school? No! They manouver out of the way. 

Steps along the way:
-existing technology
-safer car
-valet parking
-\"whistlecar\"
-autopilots
-school of fish
-safety contest

Nice to have a race between humans and robots to see who can drive more safely.[Kind of a Turing test for robotic cars, in a sense.]

[video Valet car prototype] parking itself
Two small lasers, downloads maps, drives itself and parks. Technology available in labs. Available in the future. 

Whistlecar:
some speed is slow enough to be safe
some special roads with decent speed
slow in the last mile...

Political issues:
must be legal
must not be over-regulated
juristictions will compete
Signapore, China, India, Israel, Japan possibly?
Children, the aged, the drunk?

Downsides:
No walking
Longer trips, Robo-RV, super-sprawl
Computer intrution, bugs

Sometimes when we are given an efficiency or benefit, we eat it up and exploit it. i.e. anti-locking brakes giving people a false sence of security and people taking undue risks. 

There are already a great deal of computers in your car, and your life does depend on them but they are not as prevelant as what we are suggesting.

Privacy
Cameras and sensors are everywhere...

Freedom:
Can we oder our robocar to do something illegal?
Will police have the power to redirect it?
WIll the police ever have the grounds to pull you over?
Will you have the freedom to tinker?
New traffic code: - Be safe - Don't unfairly impede others

Example. Tom Cruise in the film (Robocop?)

More downsides:
abuse of robocar avoidance
sourcing the electricity
Arrrgh! (pirates!) 
Killbots (Military asks for this technology and built this for killing purposes. Land robots and air predator drones already exist)
Slow cars and empty vehicles moves
Disruption - economic and cultural - positive and negative

Barriers:
Law
Fear
Liability
Regulators
Terrorists
S.M.O.P (small matter of programming - ironic comment)
Software recalls 

Police may want to control all the vehicles etc.

Engineering changes:
range not a factor
acceleration and speed not a factor
comfort i.e. syncronisation with the traffic lights, soft rides
sharability
different dafety constraints
small widths, single passenger or face-to-face, sleepers, RVs

Deliverables:
consequence of the military developing this technology - they have made a committment 1/3 of all vehicles will be autonomous - air, land (and sea?) for delivery
If they are used only for cargo - these robots could change the nature of our cities via shopping for instance. i.e. pizza delivery or general shopping. Imagine being able to get anything in a short amount of time. How is that going to change urban design. Retail outlets? Our homes and activities? All of these things can be obtained on demand...
This is something that will be possible with delivery robots. e.g. Meals delivered by robots changing the economics of what we keep in the house, how we use our time etc. 

How could this technology change at airports? Robots greeting you at arrival and delivers your luggage. Farms would change with this technology...

Parking and congestion
They do not park - they stand
Can stand in the driveway

Q: If it's using the reflection of the laser to determine the distance of the object why would a mirror make it not work?

Poor Man's teleporter
- Con

What are existing cities going to do?
What can a brand new city do?

Sketch/collage of talk: http://bit.ly/akjPM2

[end of presentation]
All Our Ideas crowdsourced questions: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10ncscore
Please take 2 minutes to vote for suggestions.

Instant Evaluation:
https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/gsp10/feedback/week-2

Projects:
===========================================
Roads:
Links:
Skytran
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SkyTran
SkyTran: the future of transportation 
Local company aims to build its 'SkyTran' at NASA Research Park
http://www.mv-voice.com/news/show_story.php?id=1423

$295.54 EZIP 750 Front Suspension Long-Range Electric Scooter
http://www.walmart.com/ip/EZIP-750-Front-Suspension-Long-Range-Electric-Scooter/10737229

http://www.solarpoweredbike.com/

Futuristic car design
http://www.terreform.org/projects_mobility_bub.html

Global market outlook for electrical scooters
http://www.edwardabenjamin.com/assets/GlobalMarketScooter.ppt
(copy in Google docs: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/present/edit?id=0AXBeYKoQJeyQZGRxMjJnNWpfMjhoczg4dndkag&hl=en )

JCDecaux bicycle sharing
http://www.jcdecaux.com/en/Newsroom/Archives/2010/JCDecaux-renews-and-extends-its-street-furniture-and-self-service-bicycle-contract-with-Valencia-for-a-20-year-period
(copy at https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B3BeYKoQJeyQNTI2YjVlODUtNTNlNi00OTk3LWE0ZWEtYmM1MmUyMjE3NzMw&hl=en )

Electric tricycle $990 on EBay
https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B3BeYKoQJeyQNjM1ODIwZTgtNTkxZi00MTIwLTk2MjUtOGRjNjM0YjRiMmUz&hl=en

=======================

Robot Rickshaw
- effective for elderly

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun29-NCS-CL1-it
"Marted\u00ec
2010/06/29
90-10
Brad Templeton / Salim Ismail
NCS CL1 delle reti e dell'informazione

slide di presentazione: http://www.templetons.com/slides/singu-intro.ppt
Tutte le nostre idee crowdsourced domande: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10ncscl1

[Networking for Dummies Libri:] http://www.dummies.com/store/Computers-Internet/Networking.html

\x3cnotes inizio qui>

[fine della presentazione]
Tutte le nostre idee crowdsourced domande: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10ncscl1
Si prega di prendere 2 minuti per votare per i suggerimenti.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul15-MED
"7/15/2010 
Thursday 
2:30-3:15 
Philip Low PhD, Founder of NeuroVigil Will speak on novel Neuromonitoring technology and computational biometrics.
Audio: http://bit.ly/axZUn8

I/ SPEARS
II/ iBrain
III/ biomarkers

3:15-4:15pm 
Andrew Kogelnik MD PhD (Founder of The Open Medicine Institute). The present and future of clinical diagnostics and medical informatics.
Slides: http://bit.ly/9skPmL

4:30-5:15pm 
Keith Murphy, CEO of Organovo The future of 3-D Organ Printing 
Slides: http://bit.ly/9CCck3

5:15-6:15pm
William Haseltine, PhD Chairman of Haseltine Global Health. Bill is a former Harvard prof, and a very significant figure in Biotech, including founding Human Genome Sciences with Craig Venter.
Dr Haseltine will speak on challenges and opportunities in developing/commercializing new technologies in healthcare & biotechnology. 

=============== PRE-presentation notes

Erez has introduced a new SUMMARY Etherpad:
http://su-etherpad.com/Pad-One-Liner:
Please contribute.

Spreadsheet of all core Etherpads:
http://bit.ly/GSP10library

Link to full SU Etherpad index:
http://singularityu.org/gsp10pads/

PRIOR MED pads:
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul01-MED
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul8-MED 
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul8-MED-afternoon 

=============== End of PRE-presentation notes

2:36 Daniel: Intro

Philip Low: Have you had your blood pressure checked?
Your brain?
- Painting - George Seurat
http://www.artic.edu/artaccess/AA_Impressionist/images/seurat_lg.jpg
Revolutionary painting. Put microscopic dots on canvas to make this painting.
We can understand the different figures.
If you take a few steps closer, we lose detail. Just a bunch of dots.
Why is this important.
- Spikes
Used to representing things in terms of dots in neuroscience.
When cell fires, we get dots. Repeat over and over.
Cell tends to fire at pretty much the same time.
Neurons are responding in reliable, reproduceable fashion.
More cells in our brains than stars in the Universe.
- EEG
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electroencephalography
Heiroglyph of the brain.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heiroglyphs
Very hard to decode
Brain is not on or off. This is an analog signal.
How can we present it as something less abstruse.
REM sleep - around head near eyes that tell us about this sleep.
Can we do this [find patterns?] with the brain.

Three parts.
I. SPEARS
II. iBrain - sort of an iPod for the brain
III Biomarkers - what kind of biomarkers can we get non envasively and remotely (not in a clinic)

- Yearly Cost 
$25K Alzheimers patient
- $100 B for Alz
$42 B for Schiz
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schizophrenia

Strong link between sleep and schizophrenia

- \"increased insomnia\"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insomnia

Sleep apnea
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleep_apnea

Amount of sleep - we've lost 20% of our sleep.
1 in 6 say severe problem.
Half of all auto fatalities caused by people falling asleep
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_accident#Causes
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleep_deprived_driving

70 million Americans have a sleep disorder
4 million get sleep tests

why don't more people get tests? current system sucks
-
1 in 3 americans claim sleep is a problem
1 in 6 says it's a severe problem
1/3 of accidents on the road are due to falling asleep
1/2 of fataliites on the road are due to it
-
What is a sleep test?
polysomnography
EEG, blood pressure, oxygen saturation, heart beat, etc.
Takes about two hours to set up and by the end have about \"400 electrodes hanging from you\" - Luke

Electrode placement process:
rub skin with abrasive skin glue suction cups containing sensors then duct tape them 
about 22 wires
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polysomnography
-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polysomnography#Interpretation
-
So that's the way we record sleep in 2010
How do we treat sleep?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleep_medicine
Have you heard of Haclion?
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmedhealth/PMH0000809
-
It was the ambien of late 80s early 90s
It made people nutz
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triazolam#Side-effects
Makes the problem worse
-
example: Woman killed her mother before her mother's 83rd birthday put the card in her hand and won a settlement against drug maker
-
Do you own an MRI? 
-
Super Computer? 
-
Cell phone?
Let's use cell phones for our studies
-
Going back to the study let's focus on a single channel
Let's do some analysis, from my work at Salk
I initially started on Birds, if you look at a bird brain it is very different than a mammalian brain
bundles of neurons that are highly specialized, very well pattern defined when bird is singing identical when they are sleeping
Invented a method to record and an algortihm to analyze
-
alanyzed rats, birds, lets do humans
-
usually don't see anything over 20 Hz even though we know the brain can do it, call above 20 Hz \"dark matter\"
normalizing data allows you to see higher frequencies with low amplitude relative to their low frequency high amplitude counterparts
-
Take all the labels and super impose them on the map
-
Who thinks REM is red? etc.
Red is Rem
White is sws
blue light sleep
yellow wakefullness
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Segmented_sleep
-
with german data the same trick works
interesting because it means we can go from 30 second snapshots to a single dot and we can create an entire map of sleep using clusters of those dots
-
Separation Clusters
how many groups? 4
3d graphs using: w filter, sws filter, rem filter, time filter, etc
-
we have great ways of looking at the info but still need a better way to test 
-
so this is where the iBrain comes in

http://www.neurovigil.com/ibrain/
-
User friendly on off switch, easy electrodes, washable, secure, HIPAA compliant, 60+ hours of recording storage, USB or wall chargeeable, rechargeable 20+ hours of battery life
you get fairly clean EEGs
-
Go from big guy with all these wires and a graph to sleeping beauty with analyzing down in under a minute
-
Here is the team
-
here is the science board
-
business board
http://www.neurovigil.com/leadership/
-
which parts of brain causes which sleep patterns?
thymus = sws
etc, etc, etc.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalmus
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hippocampus

-
Chart: Frequency Separation over Time
What do you see on this chart?
Red dots have two levels
-
If we looks at just rem and remove all the colors
do you think this is automated or same subjects on two different nights
-
arruban dolls made when children with special powers die so the sibling can take care of him/her, special powers = twins
-
neither I am showing you twins
-
-
looking for partners around the world
-
X prize for a alzheimers diagnoses algorithms
-
get same sensor readings through shirt
-
\"We shall not cease from exploration, and the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started and know the place for the first time. \"
T. S. Eliot 

I am only one of many, thank you

Q: Biggest task of using a single channel EEG?
A: Convincing people that all we need in most studies is a single channel EEG

Q: What are you doing with Pharma?
A: Take the drug and send the patient off to home to use drug and sleep sensors, we don't know what drug they are on and we look for changes in brain
we test before, during, after
Phase 1: look for safety of drug
Phase 2: look for efficacy of drug compared to controls

Q: Why were there studies with multiple channel EEG and not one?
A: It was thought that we needed multiple reading to understand patient was undergoing REM

Q: Compared to competitor[which one anyone]?
A: We are different, can't really talk about what they are doing, they are trying to show people their current brain patterns, we are creating a map of brain based on your sleep

Q: DB?
A: We want to build the biggest db for the brain

Contact

7606 Fay Avenue
La Jolla, CA 92037
USA 

T +1(858) 454-5134 
F +1(858) 454-5164 

530 University Avenue
Palo Alto, CA 94301
USA 

By Appointment Only

info@neurovigil.com

3:34 [Julielynn gets wired up and brain waves are displayed on iPhone]
Daniel: Thank Dr. Low.
Salim: Quick update. In DC. On the worst days to leave SU for the summer. Strategy US-AID $120 b budget. How do they structure themselves for the future. 
http://www.usaid.gov/about_usaid/
By end - participated in grand dinner. Hillary Clinton gave a talk.
Standing at the grand podium - for 4 minutes talked about SU. 

We are way ahead of everybody else.
How quickly can we have followups with you.
Pretty profound day and a half.

Great solutions come when you are playing with it.
Orthogonal turns.
Speed with which you can iterate with goal in mind is what gets you there.
Have fun with it.
Think of each of these lectures as fun, in a sense.
Talks off the main track.
Far out, outlier idea. How would I use this in synthetic biology.
Have peripheral talks, little clouds, something interesting will come of it.

Luke is here for a few days. Major pain in ass last year. Extraordinary.

Luke: Quick announcement. Sarah Jane Pell. TED Fellowship. Deadline Aug 20. Will talk late tonight, ad lib. Really good idea to have video on-line about you talking about your passion.
Friday night - record that.

3:45 
Andrew Kogelnik 
andy@openmedicineinstitute.org

Where diagnostic testing
- Overview
Historical
Current
Real World and Future
Summary

Often a void of data being returned to you.

- History
Ear to chest ... Koch, isolate microbes ... radiology
In last 50 years, have moved along.
Biotech DNA, messages
A lot has not translated well into clinical practice
1960s were first regular blood tests
PCR in 1980s. Now full genome sequencing.
(under 100 people)
Clinical medicine is not geared to figuring these things out.
Data / Physician -- gap -- how to leverage genome, testing like iBrain.
Would love to hook iBrain up to patients.

- Diagnosis and the Elephant.
X disease and here is the chromosome

-Sensitivity vs. Specificity
[ see also
Moving beyond sensitivity and
specificity: using likelihood ratios to
help interpret diagnostic tests
http://www.australianprescriber.com/upload/pdf/issues/107.pdf#page=15 ]
-ROC Curves
-Nosology
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nosology
the study of classifying diseases
doesn't do much when we are at molecular level
- Blood Diagnostics
diagram of cell seperation tube (plasma, cellular band, gel, RBCs and granulocytes)
based on where you simple (blood vs tissue or much more granular than that) you may find different results
you have to make sure you are talking about the same thing hen you get down to that level
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microbiology
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virology
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytogenetics
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fluorescent_in_situ_hybridization (FISH)

- Convergence
Databases

- Examples. Biotech vs Clinical Medicine

-Dx Summary
treatments for ? and typhoid fever are very very different
and we can give them the right treatment on day one which could be life or death for these patients
-
You can find individual gene responses on this graph over time and type
See different responses in staff vs. viral infection
-
shortcuts this pathway
- Future of Diagnostics
where are we going with this?
is there a unique RNA or molecule for a particular disease
I may not be able to culture the specimen
It's possible to find molecular reaction to treatments

andy@openmedicineinstitute.org

4:20 [applause]
Peter D: Singularity Ring Options
New developments
Kip will have ring sizer
8 like A
22 like B (with rocket)

4:38 Keith Murphy
organovo
Regenerative Medicine in Three Dimensions
Daniel: The last part of our medicine track.
Cutting edge work - coming to clinical reality

KM: Thanks Daniel.
I understand you have seen a lot of 3D printing.

Excited to talk about the biology part of that
cells need sterility so couldn't bring a demo
but I brought some slides:

- TIME magazine. Alexis Carrel.
Invented way to connect two blood vessels.
Joined with Charles Lindbergh
Developed large perfusion system
Lindbergh had material science background and developed the pump
Able to perfuse a chicken heart and keep it alive for multiple weeks
seen as engendering life, capturing the secrets of life
- The Early Years and Successful Skin Tissue Engineering
Organogenesis - Living Technology
Apligraf from Advanced Tissue Sciences - $100 m raised, then liquidated
Generation of life has proved much harder
we are at 2D tissue generation
Created skin successfully to give to patients but it is hard to do succesfully
Advanced Tissue Sciences is now out of business because they were too widespread in their ims and only had one skin product in one market
Then Organogenesis narrowed their focus but also went backrupt
You've got to have science matched with -- in medicine -- reimbursement.
Novartis - expert in getting paid.

- Engineering the Third Dimension Tissue Engineering
[book: Principles of Tissue Engineering] [ref]
[photo of mouse with ear growing out of its side - the ear-mouse]
2D is where we have had our successes but their have been a lot of attempts at 3D
printing construct in a 3D printing way then grow cells in that collagen structure

- Successful 3D Organ Generation
Grew a ear on a mouse with the idea of transplanting it to a human, for cosmetic purposes not functional

fRom an engineering point of view, build the structure, grow tissue on structure, add blood vessels so the cell don't die, erroding the support structure at the right rate, ...

Tengion via Anthony Atala developed a bladder-esque device made of smooth muscles, huge success, in phase 2, works in some patients not others but still a breakthrough even if it is still in 2D space 

- Decellularization of Organs Shows Initial Promise
Another concept: instead of creating a scaffold structure, take something from the body and create the scaffold from that. This is called decellularization. Anthony [?]
Anthony Atala works on this a lot.
Doris Taylor at U. Minnesota
This has only been done in animals for obvious reasons. Strip organ of cells, usually with a basic solution that will wash away the cells. What you're left with is the collagen matrix. 
You can actually get the cells you put on that structure to beat. The challenge is getting it to last long-term and be effective.

Another example - in the lung - published 4 or 5 weeks ago. She took a similar tack and used it on the lung. The time frame was very well documented - it lasted 45 minutes to 2 hours. This leads me to another big challenge in the field. You can create something 3D in cells, maybe even with a biofactory, but if you do that, how do you get the cells to remain alive? That's the role of the vascular system. One of the goals of this strategy is starting with that - one of the hardest things for anyone to do. You can put these cells back in the body, but they're outside the collagen matrix and blood vessels are on the inside, so they're starved of blood and die in about 2 hours.

With Organovo printing technology, we can make a 1cm cube of liver cells, but the cells in the middle will die in 2 hours.
we are not at the point where we can print an organ yet

- Inkjet technologies Developed by Thomas Boland at Clemson

One of the important things is to distinguish what we do - organovo - from inkjet. Inkjet is just taking a regular HP inkjet and find way to make the orifice work so the cells will spray out and stick to a surface. It can be as little as 1 cell at a time. Can be good for testing - 96-well plate, etc....
If I can print one layer of cells, and then another layer, and then a third, can I get to the point where I'm making a structure. You guys get that because you've been playing with the 3D printers.

They [who?] have re-engineered their HP printer so it has a 3rd axis stage. They're using a combination of collagen and cells to print their structures and get to 3 dimensions.

- Organovo Story - NovoGen Tissue Printing
Organovo has a similar technology to that, but we're trying to break through the traditional scaffold-based tissue engineering.

Tangent: I'm a chemical engineer by training. I was studying drug delivery at MIT. A Bob Langer technology, encapsulating proteins. Moved to Amgen, went to B-school, but I had the background in that tech and a real drive to be entrepreneurial. i went out and looked for a technology that could essentially do this - 10^9 - be really big. I had to good fortune to get introduced to [??] at Unive. Missouri. He didn't get the attention from the VCs there. I connected with him, he knew he wanted to get this commercial, but we formed a very good team. I'm coming from business, he's coming from the scientific side. I wanted to be back 20 years before, at the dawn of biotech. I was able to grow with that. Thinking about where that took me, it was obvious I wanted to be in regenerative medicine. 

Tissue culture is so well-defined and commonly used that people have even forgotten what happens in tissue culture. They don't think about what's going on in the system. They say \"you can't culture liver cells. They don't grow in culture.\" I look at it from an entirely different perspective. They grow in the body. We're just not transferring the right abstraction to allow them to grow outside the body. The same thing is true of liver cells, eyelet cells. People say \"we can't do diabetes because you can't grow those cells outside the body to test them.\" But they're just not creating the right environment. Some time ago people said you couldn't make smooth muscle cells outside the body. Well, our EVP of R&D was responsible for a breakthrough in that field. She showed everything done in cell culture involved turning on the incubator, creating a temperature, CO2 environment, and you're done. Well, there's a key gas you're not thinking about, which is Oxygen. What's the composition of air? 79% Nitrogen, 20% Oxygen, and the rest is Argon. 
http://mistupid.com/chemistry/aircomp.htm

What percent of oxygen is seen by the average cell in your body? In the blood flowing through the arteries, it's about 5-12%. Completely different from 20% in ambient air.

Many of us take anti-oxidants. Oxidative stress is one of the major causes of aging. So when you're sitting with these cell cultures in a high-oxygen environment, you're causing them to die faster.

That's the kind of breakthrough thinking we like to build at Organovo.

Let's talk about Novagen. It's not inkjet. From the earlier talk we saw Pointillism. Think about your TV, computer..it's creating a 2D image out of tiny pixels of color. You can just do color by numbers and Serrat can just put those little tiny dots there. Organovo is doing that but instead of colors, cells. Make that 3D grid very small, so they're each comprised of just one cell type. You put those cells in those places - you're not done, but you're on the way. Our cartridge is filled with tiny spheres of cells. 100-500 microns in size. Thousands of cells. What is proprietary about what we do is making those cell aggregates. Intermediates that survive printing, but fuse into a greater structure. The way it works - what's the - uh - MakerBot. MakerBot prints two materials, positive and negative. We do the same. We print the cells as the positive, the negative is a gel that the cells have no affinity for. Then we wash away the gel. There's a gel head and a cell head.

In this picture, the tiny orange balls are cells. (They're not actually orange.) The grey is the gel material. We just lay these two down next to each other with high precision. It doesn't have to be hexagonal, but it tends to line up that way. You can actually imagine if you look at the bottom right, branched structures. That's important to solve that problem I was talking about before - vascularisation. To make this a real transformational tech, we need branch structures and blood vessels.

- NovoGen Bioprinting Explained
[video]
We take cells, and then recombine them...here, in this one you'll see the cells are initially cylinders. The intermediate after printing...and then that's the finished product after incubation for 24 hours.

Essentially, what you saw is that in some cases we don't need to start with spheres. If you know you have a constant cross-section, may as well start with cylinders so you don't have to fuse in an extra direction.

- After Printing, Blood Vessels Are Matured in Bioreactors
What you have to do with this afterwards - the downstream challenges really start to cause us problems. You have to keep that tissue alive. And what environment do I have to put it in before it's ready to go in a body. As soon as it's fused, we need to start maturing it because it's not strong enough right away. The burst pressure is going to be 0 right away. At 24 hours, it's going to be 5 mmHg. So that's about 1/24 of the pressure we need. At day 4, it's 360 mmHg. In the body it's 1500 mmHg. What's going on in that interim that makes that happen? Connective tissue. If you take a picture of your body, if you think about what's inside, there's only two things fundamentally. Cells and collagen. There are different variations of collagen, we call them the extracellular matrix. Cells bind to those by tethers that they put out from the cell membrane. And where I'm talking about day 1, what's holding the cells together is those little tethers that stick to each other. It's kind of what happens when your hand sticks to leather or vinyl. The key is that collagen can grow over time, but you have to give the cells the right conditions to grow, in a bioreactor.

These are blood vessels being profused. We give it constant pulsation, at 60 HZ to 168 Hz. It will beat over time. That strengthens it. Largely we're training the muscle to be able to grow. it will strengthen in burst pressure and decrease in compliance. On the right you see the pumps.

- Successful bioprinting of branched cellular tube
I mentioned that one of the challenges is blood vessels in thicker and thicker tissue. This is something else we use the printer for. Here's that schematic - cells as spheres, another layer, and then a top layer, being printed out of spheres. In this case we want to make the branch structure, so not cylinders. it tapers down in diameter, because we're making a macrovasculature. We have made these already. But we haven't shown we can make those grow in tissue and make it work. We have a number of grants - DARPA, SBIR, NIH - but it needs more funding to really get it going. 

Our goal is tissue on demand. The concept is, when a surgoen goes to do work inside the body, their palette is very small. They can only work with the tissues available from that body, or a cadaver in some cases. So there are things they can't even dream of doing. Bypass surgery is simply taking a blood vessel from your body, and using it to bypass an artery that's going to the heart. The reason they don't do it very often in your brain is because you don't have the right size blood vessel to work with. The vasculature is going to be the same diameter in some places, but you can't do it in the toes or the brain because you don't have the right size material. Would be solved by tissue on demand. You have a problem with your urinary tract, you want to reroute to a urinary bag, you have to take bowel tissue to do that. We could make a simple tube of smooth muscle, so you wouldn't do further harm in the body.

- NovoGen Bioprinting Techniques Are Also a Platform Technology for Creating More Complex Geometries
We think we can get to things like liver tissue. A kidney is a big filter. A liver is more like a bioactive sponge. Actually performing functions on toxins. A big bed of hepatocytes
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hepatocyte
That bed, with four different sets of vessels, the biliary system, two different venal systems and an arterial supply of blood. When you get to printing that you have to break it down into these tiny little grid spaces. When you think about printing at each level, you just take a cross section and print on that 2D layer. You can print a tube with a series of ellipses. The challenge is maturing it and making it work.

- Why Do Cells Fuse Together? Why Do Cells Hold Together?
I want to show you a bit of actual biochemistry in our process. The cells bind to the collagen proteins. They make the collagen themselves - that's at the core of our tech. You don't have to start with a foreign material and attach cells. First place the cells where they need to be, and then if you give them the right signals they know what to do. If you put them in a bioreactor they actually build http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elastin which is what you need in a blood vessel. 

That process starts with our cell aggregates, the building block of the bioprinter. As soon as two cells are put in close proximity, they start to bind through cell adhesion molecules. Then, they have some flowability{?} They're not completely bound. They move by normal tissue liquidity into the shape you wanted, and over time build more and more of these bonds and become a closely bound piece of tissue. Start with weak adhesion, and then build a lot of adhesion. The 3D structure build when these cells are close together causes the collagen to be built. 

This happens in your body every day. 60% of your body is not the same as it was 180 days ago. Collagen included. Cells eat away collagen and build new collagen. We're just starting with none and getting to the point of having enough. (Bones work the same way too.)

- How Long will it take?
[bar chart showing Scaffold Based effort totally dominates 3D printing approach]
Success Timing is Entirely Dependent on Funding
Alliance for Regenerative Medicine http://www.alliancerm.org/
Biggest question we'll get in our field: How long will it take to actually create large organs? And this is where prizes come in. The concept we need to do somehting big as a society to make organs happen. We're a company, we have to be profit-oriented, and what we said we'd do is to be a platform to make the greater good happen. We want to provide our tech broadly. You have a choice, you can do the two things you can fund yourself, or create a platform for everyone, bring in people who know what you don't know, give the tools to the people who can work with them best, and make an iterative process.

What we're trying to do is use these bioprinters we've already created - very easy to use for a researcher - we can literally take them tomorrow to a university, if they have the cabinet where they make cells, it fits inside that same cabinet and they can print something within a week.

A ton of work for 20 years with the scaffold, a tiny bit with bioprinting. Early days here. We're working with groups like the Alliance for Regenerative Medicine to get more funding.

- Click and Print (TM) Technology
Automated calibration - makes things easy. Accuracy +/- 20 microns. Click and print technology: we'll need help from guys like you in the future - our skill set does not include cad-type data. Right now it's a very basic system where we just click this - the blue represents gel, the red and orange represent cell types. You can just click this in - about 60 clicks and then hit print and it will make the structure. But in terms of taking MRI, CT data, turn it into a CAD to make the tissue you want, we're gonna need a lot of help.

Our field, I feel, is one of the most in need of multi-talented people from all different perspectives. Theoretical physics, biophysics, anaesthesiology, developmental, zoology, cardiac profusionist, industrial automation, biochem. The only way we get to where we're going is blending all these together. That's I think the essence of what the Singularity is about.

So essentially, this is the printer in action - we couldn't bring it in [video]. It's printing a blood vessel. Let's take questions while this plays.

Q: Can you print a brain or a whole body one day?
A: The hardest thing to do is going to be brain. Axon grows very thin and can go for meters. It's going to be hard to print. However it can be done. There's a lot of things in the body you can contemplate making already. Nerves are the hardest. We've got a product that's essentially a nerve conduit. Can't print the axons, but we can print the structure that surround them and then the axons grow. In animals, to reconnect gaps in the periphery, this works. But in the brain it's a mass of neurons, and you're talking about placement of molecules, not cells.

Q: What are the next steps for other areas to focus on?
A: We try to keep things simple - allow the cells to remain alive. Work through the hierarchy - larger tubes, when you get to a certain wall thickness you need to build more blood vessels into the wall. Trachea, bowel - like a large tube - Our wall thicknesses are 500-600 microns. The next level is tubes like 4mm.

Q: What about the other direction? Stopping development? [For cancer?]
A: We're not smart enough - we can give people tools. Talk about testing antiangiogenesis {Angiogenesis is a physiological process involving the growth of new blood vessels from pre-existing vessels.Angiogenesis is a normal and vital process in growth and development. However, it is also a fundamental step in the transition of tumors from a dormant state to a malignant one.}. Can take cells from all different phenotypes, create 10 different tumor types, show that it works on some but not on others, reduce cost of clinical trial. We'd like to sell them into cell biology in a broad sense. Diabetes research, cancer research works the same way.

Q: Chiara. Work in biotech. Really great. Nuclear fusion. 1 cubic centimeter.
A: What i was saying is that I could print it but it wouldn't live. The cells would die.
Q: Just using the profusion through the bioreactor?
A: So, eventually I think we can. But it's about making that branched vasculature first, and then allowing that - flowing through all the branches at once to make the tissue live. Needs to run through capillaries. If it's tissue it's so integrated you can't flow through. Once the cells are bound together, they're impenetrable to the flow. Let's talk more offline.

Q: Justin/Canada. Great stuff. Dozens if not hundreds of hapatocytes? What have you done for anatomy of liver to show different cell types.
A: We know the microarchitecture of the liver. We didn't do that but it's been done. What we rely on is inherent programming in the cells. Our strategy is to use some of the stuff - multipotent stem cells can become all of those different cells, if they're next to the right cell and have the right env't, they will do that. We can print a mixture of endothelial and smooth muscle cells, and we give that flow, they migrate to the lumen.[??] So they know what's going on.

Q: Extreme project by Stelart. Tissue engineered an ear, implanted into his arm. Wire it up so it functions and has hearing. Given extraordinary project? Can you imagine this technology way in the future?
A: I'm gonna back up a couple steps. Does anybody know Dogtown and Z-boys? 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogtown_and_Z-Boys
The guys in the 70s breakthroughs in skateboarding? When I saw that as an engineer, what struck me was the breakthroughs in making skateboards. The grip of the wheels, the ability to flex at the join. Tony Alva was a great skater but he wouldn't have been able to do that without the tech. I don't know the number of things that could be done with this. I fear the number of things that could be done with this - with cosmetic surgery these days, things could go really crazy.
In Belgium they took a cadaver trachea, placed it in the forearm in the patient, taper them off immunosuppressant drugs, and then they were able to implant that in the trachea. There are all sorts of things that people will be able to do. That's the Singularity, I can't see past it!

5:30 [applause]
Daniel: Thank you. New faces, in case anyone needs them.
Another un-ERB approved medical experiment.
Alex and Teguest and Emiliano and Emma Brooke
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zyban
Aug 1 is cold turkey day.
Peter: Nice job Daniel.

William Haseltine
[ no slides ]

I thought I'd give a more personal story of what it's like to be involved in transforming fields. I created the first dep't of HIV/AIDS. Got the first significant funding for HIV/AIDS, both private and public. I might sound a little unmodest, but I think my work has laid the foundations for not the cure of AIDS but the control of AIDS. What was I thinking about and how did I proceed?

The first time I heard about AIDS it was called Gay-Related Immunodeficiency. I had two labs, one to support cancer therapy, and another which was following my passion, the possiblity that retrovirus caused human cancer. I had two things going on - one was how to treat cancer better (I think we made a big different to head and neck cancer, chance of survival went from 20% to 80% in 15 years. It was basically cooking, just trying different mixes of things) and at the same time I was working on a quest to see if this virus, a retrovirus, was involved in human disease. I built a very specialized lab, that was capable of working on human retroviruses, which did not exist at the time. We were fortunate that people were handing around money in great big chunks. We were one of 2-3 that applied. Before HIV appeared, we had a lab ready to work on it. As soon as retrovirus involved in human cancer - transmissible leukemia - I immediately began to work on it. What was it that made me think there might be a retrovirus for humans? It came from understanding the viruses in real detail, and a deep desire to make a difference in human health. I thought I should learn as much as I can about science. I looked at the natural world - and I saw in large animals retroviruses would go in, disappear, and then years later show up as cancer or immunodeficiency. I thought the way people were looking, in small animals, it was very different. The first virus that appeared and caused human disease was transmitted from mother to child, through milk, and through blood transfusion. A bit familiar if you know AIDS. When I first heard about AIDS I realized it was immunodeficiency. 
http://www.amazon.com/Saturday-Funerals-Unity-Dow/dp/0674050770
[...]personal stories and medical interpretation. Bob Gallow, NIH scientist, involved in discovery of HIV/AIDS. Cattle viruses, sheep viruses. We hyptohesized that HIV was the cause of AIDS. The virus was independently discovered in France and US. And because I'd worked on HTLV1, the leukemia virus, I was in a great position to work on HIV/AIDS.Within six months of that work, ideas we had were being tested in humans. it was pheonomenal how fast that went. It was a systematic exploration of how you can use genomic information to inform drug delivery. Also, we were using the same technology to very quickly;...aids tests. They uses a whole mishmash, and we were able to give them very pure antigen. Able to have a very clear test. 

In the early days one of the real problems was false positives. 1 in 300. I had friends who tested false positive. It was not a pretty picture. A couple was planning to move to the US, lived in England. She tested positive. She wasn't able to go with him to the US. It turned out to be a false positive, but it did lasting damage to the relationship.

Go back a little bit to what I was thinking about. I was convinced these viruses caused human disease, based on knowledge and intuition but not fact. It was a guess. The moment AIDS arrived I was there. But something else came from a whole different dimension. I was convinced this was the problem to work on. I transferred the leadership of cancel pharmacology to somebody else and turned my whole lab over to HIV. Why? I had read enough about human behavior, mostly in nonscientific literature...

Guns Germs and Steel
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guns_Germs_and_Steel
Diseases in human History
Plays by Gibson [or http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibsen ?] ...books about the plague

I knew about these viruses and I could see very clearly that this disease would be the pandemic it would be today. It turns out it was not clear to very many other people. I integrated information about human behavior, literature, the arts, with science. 

All the work I've done has never been directed by science itself. Colleagues, brilliant people, Nobel winners, were driven by science itself. Science presents questions, and you can go from there. I never took my direction from that source. I always took it from human health need. That's why I put myself in a hospital, not a university. That's what I was thinking, and when I looked at this virus, there was one other key piece of data. This virus is different from almost all other viruses. Why? This virus goes into your body, and has evolved to be able to live with every sort of immune assault. Any other kind of virus, the immune system goes in, it clears the virus, and you're either done or dead. That's why vaccines work. It's not a shield that prevents infection. You get infected but your immune system can shut it down. It's not a shield, it's a rapid response. 

We made a couple measurements of AIDS patients. We'd never seen an immune reactions. People dying had off-the-charts responses to this virus. Both arms of the immune system - antibody and cell-mediated immunity. This virus was evading it. The 2nd Int'l AIDS conference in France, at the end I said, if you think you're going to find a vaccine using any tech we know today, you are wrong. I was literally booed off the stage. First time, last time. The whole community wanted to do what they did for polio. But it was a very simple observation. You just can't do better than what the body was doing, but the virus was evading it. 

Once I had those facts - one very startling fact: you would think that if I told you your sex partner had a disease that if you had sex without protection you would die, you would use protection right? What do you think the fraction is? I worked with the Army - they personally counseled couples. \"The person you're having sex with has a lethal disease, you'll get it if you have sex, we can't treat it.\" The answer was 30% used protection. It turns out that in medicine the answer is always 30% of people do what you say they should do. And we saw all those other 70% got infected. You may be interested in a detail - whether anal sex is more of a vector than vaginal sex. No, it's about the same.
...
Putting all those facts together, I projected that by 2010 there would be 50 million people infected in the world. The answer turned out to be 35 million are thought to be infected now and 2.5 million are thought to be dead. How unpopular that projection was! There was a book sponsored by CDC called \"The Myth of Heterosexual AIDS\" basically designed to knock me and others out as experts. I was one of the only people who would speak publicly about this. Once, on Good Morning America, Jane Pauley was sitting there, and they like to surprise you with a different guest. This was a mother who had just taken her 5-year-old kid out of school. So I said to the mother, \"you have other kids?\" \"Yeah I have a 15-year old, 7-year-old.\" \"You should be worried about the 15-year-old who's going to have sex.\" But they didn't like that. The CDC and the HHS were controlled by the Mormons, and they just didn't like the idea that HIV was going to be a heterosexual problem.

[?} did a retrospective. There was only one story we really got wrong. The story of whether it would be a big problem. How did we make that mistake? \"We interviewed 20 scientists. 19 of them said it wouldn't be a problem. 1 of them said it would be a problem. We went with the majority opinion. Dr Hazeltine got it right.\" I wrote them back and said this is a lesson for all young scientists. Scientific truth is not determined by public opinion. Truth is not determined by the majority. If you think it's right, stick to it. If you have good reasons and a firm belief, you might be right. You make a big difference not only by your work [ but by your convictions ]

How do you build an institution? I went around to med school deans and said \"this is going to be a big problem.\" One said yes, most said no. Even the other nobel winning retrovirologists. They would say \"They're good for oncogenes, but they're never going to be an interesting subject.\" Joshua Lederberg said \"you're right. I'm not going to do anything about it, but if the population of New York knew anything they'd come down from Harlem and kill us all.\" 

If you want to get science to move one way or another, you have to channel money there. Well, I knew all about how you mobilize money. I was on the boards of many groups - ACS, I'd been on study sections at NIH. What I realized is what we needed was an institution which is very much like the National Cancer Institute. We needed private foundations, high-profile spokespeople, a lot of gov't money...At the time two groups had started private foundations. One around Elizabeth Taylor, one around [?], they got together. I told them our mission should be to put together a special fund that would give people money to start new funds. We gave grants to almost any reputable scientist who said \"i want to have a post doc work on x y or z with respect to AIDS.\" Step 2 was money from the federal gov't. Many people here are probably NGO-oriented. That's a mistake. 

Gov't can get things done in a huge way that private orgs can't. To institutionalize you want to change government policy. To give you two examples, the economic miracles in India and China were not caused by NGOs, they were caused by systematic change in gov't policy. Deng Xiaoping 30 years ago in China, and 20 years ago in India. Way more effective than all the NGOs combined. 

So what we did with the program was to try to convince the gov't to spend more money. And there I was very fortunate. [Worked with the National Cancer Foundation.] Their whole philosophy was to use their small budget to write legislation. Created Kidney Institute, Cancer Institute, ... back in the days when you could pay Congressmen to do what you wanted. And that's what they did. We got their lobbyists, Elizabeth Taylor and I went to Congress, there needed to be a catalyst, I was on vacation and I read that Rock Hudson had gotten AIDS, and he was being treated in France with a drug that didn't work and someone chartered a 747 to fly him back. it made a big splash. So I immediately went to DC, worked with lobbysists, and in 6 weeks increased the budget from 1 mln to $320 mln for AIDS research. 

Once you have that, $260mln of that came from health and $60mln came from military. The consequence was the breast cancer lobby got another $120mln from the military for their research. HIV/AIDS was seen as a male problem. All of a sudden it became worth working on - literally. The same people who pu-pued retroviruses became the major spokesmen of why HIV was important. Money is important, makes a big difference. 

Today's budget is in excess of 2bln a year. The net result of that - the whole sort of public thing - I did the same with Princess Diana - holding an HIV baby - and also, by going to visit an HIV hospital - that made a global impression - worked with Valentino in Italy to do the same sort of thing. To serve as examples that HIV was something you could talk about and work with. 

Back in the lab, we reduced every piece of the AIDS virus to a form that was easy for a drug company to assay. All the proteins. In the early days, the drug companies - the typical response would be, that's an interesting problem, but I don't have any budget. 

The way we addressed that was also something I learned from cancer. We created these projects -triple size grants went to a uni prof if they had a pharma partner that they would give 2/3 of money to. I and other scientists would say \"we'll give you money if you start working on this problem.\" That is how almost all the drug companies got involved. The net result today is that there are probably more drugs for HIV than any other single disease - at least 50. And in combination, they can suppress the virus. It was extremely interesting science. 

We had to invent a new vocabulary to describe it. It was exciting in terms of public heatlh, too. A few people made a really big difference. I have to say, we were really helped by the gay community. At first they were really hostile. It didn't happen to me, but people had blood poured on them...it was a tough environment. In one sense it was funny, but if you have blood poured on you, it's not funny. 

There were a lot of interesting stories, but from my point of view, it filled what I'd wanted to do in my career, which was to use science to make a difference to human health. I'm very pleased with the way it's worked out. We don't have a cure or a vaccine, and I think we are still decades away, but there is finally a glimmer of hope on how to control the infection. There is a program in Botswana, just now being put together. 7% of adults in Baltimore, Washington and Florida are positive - same pop as in West Africa[?]. If they're positive, treat them immediately. The virus load drops, and people become much less infectios. Combination of male circumcisicon which drops rates by 90% from men to women, combined with [?] has a real chance. That's how syphilis was controlled. Any guess on syphilis prevalance in 1910? 20% of adults in many parts of america had syphilis. It was controlled by test and treat. It's more difficult for HIV because it's a chronic treatment.

http://www.pepfar.gov/

Probably most of you not fans of George W Bush. But probably going to save more lives than anyone else. How much has the US committed to spend to control AIDS in Africa? 60 billion dollars. And you go to many places in Africa, but there are probably about 3 million people being treated every day thanks to George W Bush. And it was his personal decision to do it, and he didn't want to take credit either, he just did it. Human beings are complex. He's probably the last person you would have thought to do that, but he did it. May have been Christian duty, who knows, but the fact is he did it.

In this particular region of Botswana, the political aspiration...the village leaders, the area leaders have all agreed that it's good to do. You can't make people test - not compulsory - but 30% are infected.

Emem: My own opinion is that it's discrimination *not* to test. If you go in to say there's a pain, the first thing they ask is \"when was your last menstrual period?\" The UN has written it down that it's a violation of human rights to ask for a test of HIV.

HIV was an exception in many ways. There were a lot of exceptions. It's fair to argue the ethics of some of those, but in many areas now there are certainly models for how you can effectively treat HIV. If there is a way to damp down the infection, we have learned from Africa what to do in Baltimore, Washington, and Miami. it's really informed the programs for those areas. There is a chance that disease can get controlled.

Next phase of my career. Probably most of you are here because you're restless. You have done one thing and you want to do something else. You're not career track types.

(gap - explained how he moved from HIV/Aids to the human genome)

What is the difference between a liver and a brain?
What are all these parts?
Use recombinant DNA techniques to revolutionize treatment.
Used to be find what was systematically wrong.
organ
to
protein
Now we are overwhelmed 
Gene to function rather than function to gene, people thought we were nuts.

Blank pieces in HIV. Knew we could do it. Crank gene through standard procedure and figure out what it did.
Where is it
What does it make
Whole series of things we could do.
Convinced once we had a freezer full of genes.
Craig Venter - difficult person to deal with.
Very creative, really energetic. But we got a hell of a lot done.
There was a VC willing to back this.
You cannot believe everything they say.
This guy was to make money and have a good time.
We promised Venter $75 m.
This VC could only commit $15 m disposable to split between two organizations. I thought this was a tremendous idea.
On sabbatical.
Why should I do this?
My job was to go out and raise the rest of the money. At least $150 m.
Wally Sandrig[?] - whole thing as big picture to one guy.
Head of Sandoz.
Can't sell it one piece at a time. I'm not going to buy it, but that's what I'm going to do.
I will do it, pay $80 m, if I get to be CEO.
Somebody else got the job.
Post at SmithKline.
Brought $120 m.
Sold later - raised $300 m and split that.
So what did we do. Within year and half we had isolated all the messenger RNAs. 90% of what human has. Kept machines cranking.
We knew where they were.
As I envisioned, \"give us 5 cancer cells for X Y ans Z and there they were.\"
We were the villans.
First, it was private. And everybody here is open source.
We were raising money and couldn't be public.
Hand over on proprietary basis to SmithKline.
You could file patent.
Ground then shifted.
Needed to put data out if you wanted money.
Caused schizm 
We paid off Venter - he then started work on total human genome.
Any time you have gov't and universities involved, everyone worries about money.
We had found humn genes for a fraction.
Who would pay to get all the junk in between.
When people get worried about 3 million dollars, they get nasty.
First, you create a new tool.
This time, we had opposition, so we had to do it a different way -- opposition in your mind.
We had to find drugs.
Two quick hits: Clone by Phone
?? at Johns Hopkins - inheritable cancer.
He'd narrowed it down to an enzyme. Do you have any in this class?
We consulted Oracle and we had 5.
Within a month we solved a problem people had been working on for many, many years.

Second story. Lipitor beater.
You can have low lipids and still get heart disease.
SKB - lpPLA2 - isolated protein, but could never get gene.
Could never go from protein to gene.
Within minutes of turning on our database, they had the gene.
We were able to bridge that gap. And we did it, and did it.
People are still writing about the failure of genomics.
If you are a young scientist today - you do it the way everybody said was nuts.
If you are raising money- raise as much as you can as fast as you can.
Dot com bubble - in one year I raised $2 bn.
We needed every nickel of it.
It took 16 years to get drug.
We want every option we can get.
Stock fell to 50 cents, from high of $100.
Announced drug for lupus - 50 cents to $30. 
Hold on to your options.
\"Subducted options\" - one continent slipped under another.
Worked out because it was a good idea and we got people to back it.
Took advantage of fluctuations to raise lots of money.

Big problems. New venture.
Make discovery more efficient.

Let me say a couple of other things.
What is the dogma? Genomics is not necessarily genetics.
You'll hear about human variation.
Those who are in the field know that has been a spectacular failure.
Almost every gene you find contributes 1-2%.

Answer is 7%. 20 genes. Evolution has worked in such a way that any pool gives you a predisposition.
Even with MULTIPLE genes, it isn't working very well.

You heard a talk on diagnostics. Genetics diagnostics?
Did not use the word INHERITANCE.
I'm going to tell the difference between this tissue and that tissue.

There will be some examples where the inheritance determines the treatment.
Measure what the tissue is actually doing.
If 90% of breast cancer is not inherited, what is it?
I have a friend, daughter diagnosed. Right away, get fresh tissue and grow it.
Find out what protiens are there.
Look at microRNAs. Again expression.
Sequence to find how DNA is ALTERED.
That isn't inheritance.

30-40% heritability. In Science.
Breast cancer.
Marko: 2 studies.

All breast cancer, about 7%.
There are genes you can get 30%.

You do not know how the story will end.
When you do a real experiment you don't know what the outcome will be.
You try something. You do your best.
Doing something new now - health care services.
How do we get all these wonderful medicines to people.
Many people go without care.
Study systems that are applying affordable, in the context where they are, health care.
We are collecting best examples.
This idea - may or may not work - get enough good examples and scale them up. Get people to copy them. Models we have found.
Make best in India become the biggest.
Give very high quality health for about 20% of the cost for what we are doing now.
Mostly management. Number 2, technology.
Together we will be able to transform health services in all countries.
India is place for these experiments.

I am chairman of the board. Claudia.
Gates,
McArthur,
international community - health care systems and delivery.
Number of names for it.

6:39 [applause]

Q: Justin/Canada: presence of biotech cos?
No one to pay doctors.
No financial structure.
On board of one world health [ref]
Off patent drug for lechmaniasis?? - no functioning system to get it to the people.
You've got to build a functioning health care system.
We, together with the Global Fund and others, 
if you are a person at the end of the last road - you can be tested for AIDS.
Everyone who has a problem can be put into this network in Botswana.
Pockets like that all over Africa.
Expand for tuber 
Fundmental programs - other than education - network of health care providers - from clinic to hospital.
Hold workshops try to find best examples.

Daniel: New tech. How quickly developed. Still takes 1, 2, 3 process with FDS?
You have someone here from the Pink army. That is an interesting way. Internet
Bean Foundation - patients ready and in place.
Internet will allow self-organize patient groups.
Lot of complicated issues. Coordinate pharma and government.
Internet will appreciably speed that up.
Big pharma is failing. Efficiency is dropping by 10x to 15x. 
Catastrophic productivity decrease.
Has to be better way.
Were some ways to address that. We had a couple billion. CEO chickened out.
Now we can't pull the money together.
How to restructure the R&D process in the pharma industry.
6:46 [applause]
Daniel: Dinner now.

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"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul2-NT-discussion
"JG/K/CT/JW/A:
Cost might be high due to level of purity we don't normally use.
How do you get 100% pure without high failure rate?

Points: more money needs to go to nanotech research.
3rd revolution - but when

Cost of this technology (in general) is high without nanotech.
In past century, we paid high environmental cost. Stopped PCB and dioxins. We learned it had a high price. 
Related question: what is environmental cost of having to generate materials with ultra-high purity. 99.999% pure - hard to do.

If technologies already exist, why not in use?
Who will pay for this?

=====
Justin:
Being able to see individual molecules is important.
Being able to manipulate structures.

Important capability. Ability to monitor will be important.
Scanning microscope can be used to feel around.
Intersting idea - create holographic images.
IBM Almaden - high resolution molecular resonance imaging (MRI) - single atom level.
They've made remarkable progress.
Within several years, you should be able to \"see\" whole structure.
If techniques turn to be correct, we will be able to make remarkable progress.
=====
Eric:
Disruptive potential. Transform things. More than 100x stronger than steel.

A lot of capabilities that are nascent.
Large, complex structures: biology can do this now. We have a lot of biological capabilities advancing rapidly. Genome leads to designer bacteria. Lot of capabilities in non-biological world.
Need a bunch of capabilities together - in about 20 years. With a lot of hand waving.
Some time in the next few decades - depending on investment.
====
Chiara:
Large scale mfg.
Manufacturing food.

Basically provide low cost food production.

Chiara: most striking things for us.

Food production could be critical area. Portions of planet hungry / starving.
Material wants go away.
Concept that we will have material abundance - difficult to hear.
Pretty much for everyone on the planet. Including abundant supply.
====
\":
Interested in food issue.
Solve distribution problem. How healthy?
All food modified with nanotech.

Basic question - synthetic food good for you all your life? Will be a lot of study on that.
You can cheat. Just provide good growing conditions for standard life - tomatos. If you have a properly controlled environment - humidity, sunlight, high CO2. Can provide at low cost.
Reduce acreage by an order of magnitude or more.
If food substance itself is out of bounds, you can still use nanotech.
Stick with natural stuff.

Salim: How many of you have conerns with GM foods?
First point: many modifications already. Dog breeding.
Strains or rice.
In our environment, millions of bacteria trying to kill you all the time.
Chance you will be hurt by something man made is low.
====
Candice/Canada:
Already mentioned ideas.
Upstream/midstream/downstream
Scale up, getting into market. Various applications
medical
enegy

Downstream, not talked about, but once you incorporate nanomaterials, what will happen in the environment. Will we be able to control them. That whole ball of wax.

Implications of nanofactories. Workshop planned to discuss downside.
We want to arrange matters.
Unpleasant. Done pretty good job of getting benefits while avoiding downside.
Analogy. Fire is an advanced technology. Very dangerous. How do you deal with it.
Fire departments
Fire extinguishers.
Advantages:
Cooking
Heating
Industrial processes.
We would not give it up, but have safeguards.

====
Matt:
Cost of assembly.
How do you get atoms to bond correctly.

Temperature is not going to be a problem. You look at thermal noise.
Concerned about side reactions - undesired.
Simplest thing is to lower temperature.
Would need liquid nitrogen environment.
If you work harder, could find more tolerant systems.
Figure out what side reactions would be.
Room temp operation will be standard.

Another thing, not brought up. Very energy intensive processes. Many very wasteful of energy. As time goes by, there will be less energy intensive versions.
These things will not be that expensive.
If biology can do it, we ought be able to do something similar.
Probably a lot lower.

====
Sasha:
Implication - engineering one. Build things in an optimal way.
Will that be a natural progression of tools to build tools to build tools to build tools.
Will we continue in an optimal cost way?

Will have general purpose tools building more special purpose tools.
General tools will be atomically precise systems.
Mfg process itself will have assembly lines.
Short answer- most mfg systems will shift over.
Essentially a complete elimination - some will still use traditional techniques.
Molecular techniques may not be best - for example, ham and eggs.
May be simplest.
Probably bulk processes will continue to be used.
Computers will be all nano.
====
David:
Walking army of nano bots.
Things in synthetic cells, cross over to true synthetic - cell looks more and more like molecular manufacture.

I don't know. Basically using biological mechanisms.
Barely to point where we can put in a synthetic genome. Will have extensive redesign of bacteria. Creative leaps. New avenues will open up. Can't see what will happen when money is applied here.
Dry ...
A lot of pressure to use designer bugs to build things.
Whether pressure will bridge gap, then we'll see very interesting designer bugs.
Otherwise, bugs will be over here. Nano independent developments. Perhaps a different track.
Bio systems will top out in performance.

Salim: 5 minute break. Survey - vote for break.

======
======
Second discussion.

Davidad: What are orbitals?
As electron numbers go up, structure becomes more interesting.
You can use those as you want as you are generating the electronic structure, superposition of multiple orbitals. Seems to work well for a variety of systems and approximate structurs.

Salim: Who has a good question.

: Diagram, as energy goes up. What about part of graph where it goes to infinity?
Two protons - fewer electrons between. End up with two positively charged protons looking at each other. Push them together. They get less and less happy.

Carlos: Learned attractive and repulsive. What about affinity and replicators?
So, what is relation between forces and replicators?
Classic von Neuman replicator has a tape. Uses that to execute a series of instrutions.
A biological device - DNA is monomere. Uses 4 bases. Held together by forces I was describing into polymere. That holds information of what is to be built.
Manufacturing device is also held together by forces.

Q: 5 principles. How much does that actually reflect reality. 99%
Yes. We cheat. If you have set of principles which describes some chunk, then confine self to that part of reality well described by the model I have. Design within the constraint of the model. Components will not be well described, but I will avoid those in my design.

One approach, have design rules - flexible enough to cover a lot of territory, but not too hard to wrap your head around.

Misses excited states.
Doesn't deal with computers. Which may use excited states.
We are not dealing with computations, we are manufacturing.
We can BUILD a computer.
Various aspects. We are ignoring a lot of stuff.
Deliberately chosen subset of a much larger domain.

Salim: How could you use nanotechnology to impact 1 bn people?

======
======
11:29 Third discussion.

More efficient batteries.
Solar.
Make food.
Recycle everything.

Applies to all 5 projects.

Develop nanopumps.
http://www.ted.com/talks/michael_pritchard_invents_a_water_filter.html

===
Dmitry: with these structures, very sturdy - how to recycle? Problem?
What about processing composite materials?
Will we have a problem?

I would not anticipate any fundamental problems. If you want to take things apart.
Space is excellent idea.

===
JulieLynn:
Space Elevator
Upcycling - break down
Water - purification
Energy = more efficient solar panels
Food - synthetic

Yes. Excellent ideas.

===
Justin/Canada:
Decrease dependence on imported oil
Upcycling - use elemental Carbon to build whatever hydrocarbon you want.

Obvious choice would be CO2 in air. Solar energy. Use to recombine Carbon into diamond or whatever you want. CO2 in atmosphere would drop.

===
: Create robotic super-antibodies. Maintenance workers. So we'd all be lot healthier.
Question - we build in macro way, not tearing down at molecular level. Would it take a lot more energy?

Answer depends. Breaking something - say diamond to something with carbon/oxygen bond. Should PRODUCE energy. CO2 + residue + energy output.
Others may require energy input. Depends on efficency.
We should be able to have thermodynamcally reversible processing.

===
Maggie: 
Water idea. Collect dew on roof tops.
Water - never ending well.

Sounds good to me.
Removing water fromthe atmosphere - very possible.
Make deserts bloom. Be cautious. If you move a lot of water, you may shift weather patterns.
Obvious solution would be to pump water into the atmosphere. Rathe than building a caanal. Let the atmosphere carry water.

Salim: 2 minutes left. Developments 15-20 years out. What is next? (soon)
Getting nano factories working. Will take awhile.
Lot of interest in nano in broader sense.
Lot leading up to capabilites we are talking about.
Research on small structures.
Seeing people talking about drug delivery.
Seeing other developments.

Thank you Ralph.
[applause]
5 minute break
11:40

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul8-MED-afternoon
"7/8/2010 
Thursday 
David Bolinsky Video Presentation
\"David Bolinsky\" \x3cdavid@xvivo.net>, 
1:45pm \u2013 2:30pm

2:30 -- 5:30 pm 

Medical Informatics 
Chris Longhurst
Slides: http://bit.ly/9aTPMc
Audio: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0BzeVpIw-GHihY2Q0YmQ5ZDQtMTU2YS00MWQ5LWExYmEtYTgxM2ZkYTU2ODRj&hl=en

Integrative Medicine 
Rachel Schneyer
Slides: http://bit.ly/ajjKKf
Audio: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0BzeVpIw-GHihMjZjNTRmNjctZDY4Yy00NTM5LTgxZGYtNzk3MmI2ZjM0YTM0&hl=en

2:14 Buzz Aldrin
Massive changes in short period of time.
Compliment you on your great optimism.
Things in my business slowed down.
Came along at the right time, took advantage.
If not the way they needed to be, we changed them.
Share a variety of different outlooks from many different backgrounds
to make things better.
Recognized as seond leut in war. About your age. Began volunteering.
Quest for big picture. How could I make it a bit better.
Has stood me in pretty good stead.
Look at problems, approaches that might address something I knew something about.
That others weren't that familiar.
Kind of a twist to how you do that.
As a fighter piliot - you eliminate the variables as you can.
Eliminate the problems, then do something you can do something about.
Make corrections.
Typical guidance.
Open my mind to think here we've got different ways for going from one place to another.
Something that went from here to there.
Going to the moon.
There and back.
Operationally useful.
Whatever is doing that is a new entity.
Not that long.
Why not look at Mars. Not that complex.
Way to get to Mars and keep doing that again and again.
Orbital gymnastics. Maybe this might work.
Problem of Not Invented Here. Selling an idea that wasn't invented by someone else.
MIT.
Decided to go to moon. Really big rocket or two Saturn V.
Send two.
The other one, once it gets there, does something else.
Every mission comes back with something that gets landing in the ocean.
Why not have a specialized interplanetary spacecraft.
Why not have it dock with an up and back system.
Orion will be interplanetary craft.
Comes back and aero-captures at the Earth.
After 30 years of landing on a runway, I don't think that was a mistake.
What is cheapest? Land in the ocean. Will we go back to that?
No, land on a runway.
Develop a spacecraft to do that, then sell it to other countries.
These feed into the unified space vision.
What does it unify?
Commercial
Strategy / Security.
Make an overall policy.
Introduce ideas which have just kind of come along to me in the experience realm.
You are trying to do that in a very short period of time. Share with one another in a common task.
Probably going to be one of the opportunities in your life.
Wasn't I lucky to be part of that.
I really wish you well.
[applause]

2:22
Back to work.

Daniel: So, that's a tough act to follow.
I've had a picture on my wall since I was 5.
He was on Apollo 11. Second man to walk on the moon.
Formulas for orbital mechanics.
An architect of that program.
Visioneering. 2-1/2 hours. 8 person panel of extraordinary folks.
40 min with David Bolinsky.
http://davidbolinsky.com/
http://www.ted.com/talks/david_bolinsky_animates_a_cell.html
2:24
David: Thanks Daniel.
Best tool of bandwidth aggregation - your eyes.
More information than your eyes.
Much more than you could read in a lifetime.
Mass of information in medicine, technologies increasing exponentially.
Students will be just completely stoppered up.
Need to establish a \"California closet\"
How do you establish a visual vocabulary.
A commonly agreed on thing.
So ideas I am trying to get to you are not something really different.

Approached by Rick Sataba. Extraordinary futurist.
Head of MASH units.
DARPA
Concerned that military was planning to cut non-spearpoint staff, including medics.
Meant greater peril.
Wanted to initiate program where all the technologies using robotics, AI, remote sensing, datastorage, would all be put into environment where soldiers would be followed by intelligent robots, monitor data from soldiers. Autonomously put soldier into robotic uint. Scan the soldier. Automatically do surgical stabilization and tranport. Very expensive.

Problem Rick was having. Years of planning. He had 5 minutes to explain it to Congress.
Big task. So what he asked us to do was to help take 90 seconds of 5 minutes that would show what successful program would look like in an urban combat environment.
[video we saw earlier - viewed through commander's heads up display]
Automatic intubation.
Automatic IV.
Lipstick cameras for remote monitoring.
So Rick was the first PI to get his approach funded.
Lot to be said for storytelling, how you envision the future.
Academically thorough, inject just enough honesty into your piece.
Not promising the world what you can't deliver.
When words fail, this is a great way to get your point across.
How many people \"got it\" with just words?

Interesting things with Health Care reform.
Situation where most physicians and personnel are oversubscribed.
Already hugely put upon. Now mandated to take on additional 50 million patients.
That is not going to work well.
How do we change medical school to quickly educate care givers.
People who understand
patients
care
system
and upgrade system as a whole.
Visual interactive, immersive, active,
Change from show-me based to deeply immersed way.
Things they would find out piecemeal in traditional environment.

Inner life of the cell - Harvard.
So much information to know. Needs to be done differently.
Cinematic techniques. Give students a whole new way to learn.
This was not meant to be seen in public. Meant to show only to experimental study group.
SIGGRAPH submission. Electronic theatre. About a year after YouTube.
Seen now about 11 million times.
How we could change medical education.
Molecular and cellular motion and transport
[video we have seen before - piano music, animated colorful molecular or cellular structures. No text, just visuals. DNA generating proteins. Something squeezing between cell walls] 
You can go to the biovisions website at Harvard to see the whole piece. 
[applause]

Piece we just finished a couple weeks ago. Kept some of the basic color themes. Made it a bit more ....
[video - violin music this time.]
This is not your father's Krebs cycle.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCypoN3X7KQ
Because this is below the wavelength of light, we decided to use palette of coral reef.
ATPase.
[applause]
[Video - ad for transgenic goat outputs]
2:46 [Video - stem cells]
One of the interesting things that comes up from having a visual vocabulary is it gets you into areas you would not expect.
[Video - Ad - Dove beauty bar]
2:48
Only way to get public research money and communicate to public health workers and get public to take charge of their own health is to communicate in a sophisticated way. Make them feel they are not being talked down to. Integrate astounding amounts of information. We need to communicate with these people and get a positive feedback loop.
I have other animations, that is a good introduction.
Thank you.
2:50.
Q: Videos online?
xvivo.net
A lot we are not allowed to show.
Proprietary. 
DARPA piece is only piece in 14 years that we were able to talk about.
Q: Cost?
That was about $90,000/min. Charged to client. Partly because of national broadcast rights.
Typically $35,000/min. Harvard stuff is harder. We use orbital velocity we get out of this stuff to compensate.
Q: Using ?
Different way of doing it. Realtive distance - stereo 3D takes really building a lot more things.
When we do things, we scale it to make is smaller. You eye compensates.
Stereo 3D is coming.
Q: Do you combine raw data?
Protein databank. Take atoms and skin it.
For some scenes up to 300,000 items on screen at once.
We use data when we can.
We are a story driven company.
Q: Great fan. Is there anything you can share as we move on our team projects, power of story telling?
Power of story telling - oldest human endeavor. Oldest \"human\" endeavor. How do you get it into their head. Align your thinking with their thinking. Add to the details. Do what a good committee does - come up with a new hybrid. For all of you who have new things to say, talk to other people. Get perspectives from other disciplines.
You are chimeric.
You are combining professions.
Someone in one alone would never come up with your solutions.
Storytelling is what sticks.

Sasha: Translation issue - maintaining integrity. Tricks to visualize, maintain rigor?

Two different questions. Telling story and making it stick is about giving someone something interesting. Introduce virus into heart and person starts to get sick. This molecule comes in to defeat the virus. This is how it fixes the problem: standard story telling arc.
Something is right, something messes it up, something fixes it.
Slippery slope with regard to facts.
FDA has to see backup research.
Not show questionable things. We try to be really good.
Can show things we can't talk about.
Part is having good moral center when you do the work.

Bryce: bioethics issues storytelling. Stories stick. Gattica. That's what genes mean in the public eye. You want to create -- but not anthromophizing these molecules.

Did Depak Chopra - molecules actively doing things not comfortable for us. They don't act that way. Having a basis for proving that what you are saying is accurate.
We say things in animations that would work for professionals. Civilians would need longer script. Look at tyour audience as well.

Q: What is your take on simple, low tech solutions. Like \"Plain English\"
Daniel told me I had 46 seconds left ...
No problem with quick, to the point. That works as well. Depends on what is your budget.
Any storytelling that works.
3D is our business model Lot of good 2D stuff being done.

Q: 2005. More recently. How much has production cost dropped.
Complexity goes up so cost stays level. Stuff we do now - 500x the computing power now.
People ask for Hi-Def. Lot more scenes per minute. What you are putting in changes it.

Julielynn: Great accuracy. Do you anticipate open sourcing would allow costs to go down?

I hope so. This is all hand made. 
Nothing off the shelf and you do it.
Our computers. first cost $300,000. Had to mortage house to get it. Obsolete in 6 months.
Now, something more powerful for $1,500.
Molecules and objects are handmade. We do some programming , membranes to self assemble. 
Lot of bespoke work.
Cast members, cast differently.

Keith: Have some demo discs?

Rush up here Walmart style.

Keith: 5 min break.
[pile of students on table with discs]

Q: Have you worked with Massive - AI in each object, like in Avatar?
http://www.massivesoftware.com/

Our budgets are a rounding error on their lunch budget.
XVIVO Scientific Animation
http://www.xvivo.net/

====

3:09 Keith. Tried to cover Med School 101 in one hour.
This year, not a lot of time. 12 minutes per speaker. 
Pose question. Ask to you - how to use exponential technologies.
Combined panel at end. 
45 min breakout. Pick the speaker you might have solutions for.
Robot surgery.

3:11 Kathryn
Augmenting the Surgeons Senses.
Started playing with robots.
combine robots and engineering.
New solutions for minimally invasive surgery.
Problem with open up, fix and move up.
Patient is left with scars.
Minimize damage you do to get in to fix something.
From this [lots of stitches] to this [a few small bandaids]
Robot between hands of surgeon.
Suture is the size of an eyelash.
Can do inside .
Lot of robot.
Lot of robot between eyes and tissue.
Reason why - allows much closer vision of tissue.
Protatectomy (removal of prostate)
Sewing vessel on beating heart.
Repairing mitral valve within heart - without spliting sterum.
In early days, Intutive likened itself unto God. Not modest.
Dexterity
gyno-surgery
Get back to where we could open up and look.
Give back dexterity of hands, vision to be able to see.
In the future, not being satisfied with reflected white light image
but instead making opportunity for camera and screen
to look at spectroscopy of tissue.
Near infrared.
Beyond limits of input organ we've got.
Start to be able to add clinical decision making.
Lymph node.
You learn to say this lump is a node.
But what you reallly want is to be able to look through that tissue.
Marked functionally. Linked to tumor. Dye went and stained downstream - functional connection.
Put dyes in to bloodstream.
See through the tissue. Good connection becomes visible. Functional point of view.
Colon cancer operation.
Dye in blood seen in near infrared - part not lit up starved for blood.
Take out section that is not well perfused and make sure someone does not get a leak.
Binds to kidney, leaves tumor as dark spot.
Squamous cell carcenoma- lights up like christmas tree when you put the dye in .
Cancer is non functional, helps get good margin (space around tumor).
Bile duct - removal of gall bladder. Allows you to see beneath the tissue.
This is bile glowing bright. You can milk along duct. Play around before you clip it.

things I have shown you are al lreally early stage.
FDA approved dyes. Really dumb dyes.
Can see things by way they are metabolized. Into bile. Non of those things targetted.
Antibodies - think dies targetted to myolin sheaths - neurons.
One that finds metastatic cells. They'll light up. Again, look at a state. Not a color. Not a function. You are looking at a state.
Lot of opportunities to desgn molecules.
With very very fine detetion, we'll need something other than white light without greater contrast.
In addition, real time microscopy. Change scale of things we are looking at.
Nerve fibers. Know where they are.
Risk of cluttering screen. Unless useful, just clutter.
- Visual clutter of jet fighter cockpit
- Other inputs?
As we get more and more information. Motivation is very strong.
If we can find out where these cancers are and obliterate them. Things we think of a large surgeries, we can make it more like removing moles. Maintenance mode.
3:24 [applause]
Q: Brad: Tactile feedback?
In robot, crude haptic feedback telling when instruments are colliding.
Big signal to noise ratio.
Suspect information is better than no information.
It need to be PERFECT, not jsut \"good enough\"

Q: Used on brain tumors?
No. 80% of prostatecomy done this way.
Instruments kind of \"throw an elbow\"
Need different kinematics.

Q: How widespread?
1,400 robots worldwide. 2/3 in US. Urology and Gyn. 

Q: How remote from surgeon?
Opportunity to be very remote. If too far away timing delays. 200 ms, people tend to osscilate. They overcorrect. Round trip.
Lot of work done for remote telesurgery to space stations and things like that.
Still unnerving when things are slow. Feels like you are underwater.
Advantages of teleoperation not that apparent.
Finding someone who can operate is easy. Finding expert is harder. Get proctor.
That works out better. Rather than high bandwidth of controls.

3:28 Keith: Will stick around. Field trip to intuitive.

3:29 
Digitizing the Healthcare System:\u2028Challenges and Opportunities
Chris Longhurst, MD, MS
Chief Medical Information Officer, LPCH
Assistant Professor of Pediatrics, Stanford University

Slides: http://bit.ly/9aTPMc

- IOM, To Err is Human, 1999.

\u201cDespite the cost pressures, liability constraints, resistance to change & other seemingly insurmountable barriers, it is simply not acceptable for patients to be harmed by the same health care system that is supposed to offer healing & comfort.\" 

We kill 100,000 with medical errors. About a 747 going down on a daily basis.
Think about on an individual basis.
We've hurt kids.

You can see this order has a problem.
Third order: Morphine sulfate or Magnesium sulfate. Triplicate copy would go to pharmacy.
0.1 gram, we gave full 1 gram dose to preemy baby

To Err Is Human: Building a Safer Health System
Linda T. Kohn, Janet M. Corrigan, and Molla S. Donaldson, 
Editors; Committee on Quality of Health Care in America, Institute of Medicine
National Academy Press, Washington D.C. 1999
Josie King, Feb 2001
\u201cStatistics are just human beings with the tears wiped off.\u201d

- EMR Adoption Model
We are stage 2. We want orders to be electronic. Only 2% of hospitals, but 1 in 4 children's hospitals. 500 g to 100 lbs - safety prob lem around dosing.
children's hospitals have more money.
Then bomb dropped

- Pediatrics, December 2005
Computerized Physicians Orders killed more kids.
I'd given up 50% of my career to make this work.

- Pediatrics, May 2010
First manuscript in the world to say electronic records could reduce mortality.
By 20% - that's HUGE. 
36 children have lived due to software technology in our hospital.
Media: How do we know you weren't just killing a lot of kids before.
Standard ratio - for every kid we kill ...
Worst in South.
On far left - Stanford. 2008/2009 We've dropped to .45
So again this made the press.
WSJ. Reuters. How come more hospitals haven't done this. What is holding this back?

Observed to Expected Mortality Ratios, 2008

- Barriers to EMR Adoption
Cost is reason.
$600-700 m budget
Cost $55 m to put system in.
IT share doubled.

Next door hospital cost them $180 m . Maybe $250 m - 1/4 of a billion.
How can we commoditize health infomation technology.
Administration said we'll put out incentives.
About as much sense as having children to get a tax break. Does not compute.
How to make software cheaper?

Only one looking at this: Microsoft. Only two verticals - education and health care.
Attempt reverse technology transfer. Figure it out overseas, then bring it back.

Third obstacle:

- Silos of Health Information
Pharmacy,
your health plan.
Health record databanks.
Interoperable. You control it.
Very interesting - bi-directional.
You could aggregate as Google Health [ref]
allows.
Personal records here.
PHR - Personal Health Records.

- Diagnosis Errors \u2013 The Next Frontier
The primary cause of medical malpractice lawsuits is the failure to properly and timely diagnose medical conditions. Often the failure of a doctor, nurse practitioner, or other healthcare provider to recognize telltale signs of disease leads to more serious complications or even death.
The legal doctrine of \"Loss of Chance\" is tightly interwoven with medical diagnosis errors. 

-AHRQ, 2007

Diagnosis errors have not begun to be addressed. 

Help a billion people and make a billion dollars.

Q: System lives off of inefficiencies.

How do you deal with misaligned incentives - more, not safer, care.
Hospitals operate on very thin margins. HC reform will not thicken those margins.
Will have to figure out how to use system more efficiently. 
CFO acknowledges system will pay for itself.
Saving lives does not save us money right now.

Q: Software / Hardware?

Hardware is cheap. HR systems in the cloud. No vendor doing cloud health care.
Yet the market has exploded.

3:42 Daniel Riskin
- The Changing Face of Healthcare Innovation.
Daniel: Kathryn, Chris - incredible work.
I'm the in the trenches guy.
10 years now.
Talk about my background: 
President.
One day per week doc.
Develop technology
HC is fun and interesting and you can do it.
HC is intersting field. Big changes.
- scalpel
Started with big incision.
Did impressive operation.
Fast forward a few years and all of sudden laparoscopy is not rare.
Now it is everywhere.
I'm trying to think of new devices. 
Entirely different from what I learned to do.
Robots,
new technologies.
Then fMRI.
Devices are incredible.
50% tech, 50% IT - but hard.
Doctor, patient, payer. Government. 
Worst inertia you've ever seen.
Great new devices unlikely to be adopted.
We've seen tech kill people - become very conservative.
Get expert feedback.
Trials.
Adoption.
Things have to happen, not always in order.
- Challenges to HC.
Used to do research.
This decade - getting your ideas used.
- Jobs with iPhone
New medical devices which can have massive impact
- Devices, Data and More.
HC IT. Chris - \"cheaper more avliaable\"
Out and available.
Rand $70 bn saved, CBO said nothing saved.
We can devlop infrastructre. Allwe'll develop is technology.
Get devices.
Govet paying to get docs on IT. 
80% are private practice. Hospitals are 50% up on HC IT.
Docs are 12%.
Pharma device. Data systems and quality.
Not about the roads.
Building on-line systems. You can't start next EMR company
Use infrastructure. Improve systems, quality.
Move over what Stanford is doing .
All done in the cloud.
Favor quality. Change incentives.
Landscape of innovation you can work into.

Company - wound closure. Being used. Satisfying career.
Doc speaks into iPhone. Gets data in to EMR dirt cheap.

Not that hard. You can do it.
3 
BioVisions of Harvard

Switching gears a little bit...

Hearing about this technology, how does this impact us individually? Sometimes theres too much technology
http://www.vmt.com/index.html

Michael McCullough, MD
Just on the phone with daughter who has to decide between removing whole breast....
I speak in accents because I had a head injury as a kid
I am a trauma physcician
I wanted to point out that Moore's law isn't necessarily keeping up in the 
Points to Connor: you're heart just stopped...
Points to Julielynn: give him CPR

I'm an ER physcian, the ambulance is here in 4min. Load in 1-2. Nearest hospital in 6. What are the odds?
Excellent CPR, early ambulance... light speed.... What are the odds? 30, 50, 80...%?? You are aggregating on Hollywood's number... actually \x3c1%

The healthiest non-smoker in the world

The average person spend most of healthcare money on last couple months of life with Hollywood expectations. These people cost millions and millions to the healthcare system.

How can we educate people? When people come to teh ER I have to comply... Even if they don't want to be recessitated, I don't know sometimes...

People need to know the data for risks of heart attack, stroke etc...
Some kind of tax incentives for having people say whether or not they want to be recessitated or not.

I think as myself as physcian to increase happiness.

What's your name? Bryce... How many people need to take choloestorol meds... I think I'm healthier taking it?....

One of NGO hats was aggregating how to locate kids for....

I think I figured out how to end affirmative action... 30000 kids in the USA earn a 1300 on SAT but many less go to higher level universities...

Epiphany for college application in junior year of high school
http://www.questbridge.org/

Switch to Australian accent...

Q: Sharry: Really only 1%?
A: If your heart actual stops and you have no pulse, it's because the electrial environment isn't correct or aerithmia or.... the only type that you can possibly easily recessitate is if you have air in your chest...

Q: Maggie: Do you ever have any problems where patient says do not recessitate but fmaily says do?
A: I had a patient who hung himself, you could say he wouldn't survive. If he was an organ donor he could help a lot of people. He was African American. Mental sets, sometimes people are prepared to listen to data. You can tell when you hit a wall. I had a patient with swine flu about 5months ago. 29 year old, lungs filled wiht fluid, no insurance. Lung echma (?). He was from hamung tribe (?). Tribe leader didn't want him to. I was able to locate his wife. People are pretty reasonable about half of the time. Most of the time you just want to leave them alone because they're on overload.

Dr Yvonne Kagel
at some point you need to ID center of gravity, no slides
wanted to raise awareness of living / working in micro gravity, long-term and short-term
Space adaptation syndrome: short-term (early space adaptation syndrome)
Human body no longer has force that pulls organs, plasma, blood volume down. The blood volume flows up into head. First couple days foggy head, hard to concentrate, little hard to sleep. Red eyes (congestion). Face looks swollen. Fluid accumulates in inner ear. Fluid accumulates in chest and fills your heart which temporarily becomes larger. First couple days you pee of the fluid and it goes back to normal after kidneys kick in. This leaves you somewhat dehydrated. Your lungs are able to excahnge air better and it's easier and more comfortable to breathe.
After 3 days, other effects. The bones start to demineralize because of decreased loads. Body says it doesn't need it anymore. Bones, stones and groans. Develop kidney stones because you're trying to pee out calcium. Also gets stuck in intestinal tracks. Atrophy of muscles, including your heart. Obdominal doesn't absorb nutrients of medications as well. Early aerithmia, t-wave inversions. Immuno stress, faster expression of disease and possibly types of cancer. Thyroid, risk of radiation expossure. Heart rate isn't as responsive as it used to be. Sleep disturbances, sleep debt. Cercadia shortens.
Deep Space Mars, landing shuttle. Eye hand coordinationa nd balance aren't what they use to be. Bisphosphastes to replace bone density loss in heels and ankles. Enhanced vitamins. Before going to Mars, use stem cells in situ. Games to keep you trained and precise. Simulators where pilots can practice landing onboard space shuttle. Proficiency needs to be maintained. Most successful sign of a good mission is returning both data and the people.
Tethered medical operations for \x3c2weeks.
When you go to moon may be up to 10min delay in communication
Mars, 20min+ delay for communication - problem for deep space if there are medical issues. Need to take all your medical supplies with you.
Tiveon makes a resistive device like a knee brace to give your body resistance. 
Sustainability is only half the problem. The other problem is thriving. You wanna feel good! Diversion is really important. Entertainment, humor, curiousity. 

Harvey A Fishman
Opptomologist
Novel technologies in cataract surgery
Decided I wanted to be more entrepreneurial
Modern cataract surgery today: all by free-hand. Take a tip,debulk lens, put a new lens inside a big - 2um thick. 100% change of lens at age ~45. As you age it becomes less flexible and yellow.
Cataract surgeons have the highest amount of catecholamines in their urine, because it's a fast surgery (stress hormone - https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Catecholamine)

presbyopia - loss of eyesight at age 45, causing a need for reading glasses, due to less stiffness vs. zonular activity

Gettig close to an accomodating lens that would move back and forth via hinges using your eye muscles
Injectable gel that fils the bag in the eye
Polymer based lenses whose shape can be changed after surgery
Smart implants
Femto second laser for much more accurate surgery

http://healthcare.tmcnet.com/topics/healthcare/articles/91342-fda-approves-first-implantable-miniature-telescope-amd-patients.htm

Game change: femto-second lasers to do the entire surgery. New technology that does every incision. Incredible precision. 

Matthew Rabinowitz - Single Cell Genetic Diagnosis: How engineers get Women Pregnant
How do you make measurements on things as small as a cell?
Applied this to the context for making healthy babies...
~2% of babies in US and Europe are IVF
Have a bunch of things you want to test for but technologies that do this from a single cell, you get ~10% misdiagnosis. 
Why does a woman have miscarriage? Send fetus in to lab, get lots of contamination. Technology is limited.
Gene screening captures 25% of disease load. 6% of couples in US have a gene you don't want to pass on. Of this, about 5% are increased susceptibility
Pregnant and worrying: 5% false positive. Avoid invasive procedure
1/7 of children who have down syndrome are not diagnosed.
If you have a completely normal fetus, 5% of time you will misdiagnose.
Total available markey, $4.4B in US, $20B worldwide
Result: Parental Support Technology.
Copy cell from embryo, copy number count across all 24 chromosomes. Relable single cell genotype. Use microarray to lay down DNA. Can measure hundreds and hundreds. Also take data from Human Genome Project and microarray measurement from mom and dad. From all this data you can put together all the data from this single cell which alone would be pretty unreliable. 
Now can do prenatal diagnosis and determine if there are any copy number errors. 92 labs are now using this.
What have we learned about human embryos?
Disagregated each cell in a group of 8, different chromosome in each cell. Mosaic. Didn't understand how this happens. It turns out that these mosaics are arrising not from sperm or egg errors, but while the embryo are growing in the first three days. 2 copies going into one cell, none going into another. You can track the actual father's chromosome. Really complicated mosaic structure from the first division even.
Improved rate at which embroys implant, 2x (19.7%) implantation rate, 1.5x (21.2%) live birth rate.
PS for Single Gene Testing - can actually measure where teh chromosome cross over happens on single nucleotides at 99.9%. 4^n^10 possibilities where n is base pairs.

Q: Is this a rule that cells don't divide the same in the embryo?
A: The majority of the time the embryo IS mosaic. We believe this doesn't just happen in IBF but also in nature. 

Integrative Medicine in Practice
Rachel Schneyer LAc, MS, FABORM
Slides: http://bit.ly/ajjKKf

Rachel Schneyer- Integrative Medicine in Practice
Preventative medicine, lifestyles, how we participate in our health and healing is where the great oppurtunities are. 
First trained as botanist

- Indole-3-Carbinol and Cancer
Impact to metabolic pathway via food therapy on disease, such as 1995 study on Brussel sprouts and colon cancer (Nijhoff WA et al, Carcinogenisis. 1995)

Era of Functional Medicine
Determining the outcome of one's health history

MTHFR
errors in folic acid metabolism impact on homosysteine

Superior physician treates the patient in wellness - like in ancient China the doctor was only paid when the patient was well. Inferior physician in disease. We need to incentivize wellness. 

Circadian rhythm linke to antioxidant status

Genetic factors
Assimilation/Detoxification
Environmental factors: Epigenetics
Stress assay: Biofeedback, Salivary panels
The Era of Functional Medicine
Some\u2026 carry polymorphisms that are most important in determining the outcome of {one\u2019s} health history. Administration of cofactors to these polymorphic genes can restore activity to normal levels.
Ames et al (Am Journal of Clinical Nutrition. 2002; 75: 616-58.)
MTHFR
Errors in Folic acid metabolism & impact on homocysteine
Low Folate status may lead to cardiovascular events, dementia, increased clotting (cited in miscarriage) and depression.
Prevention as Medicine
\u201cThe Superior Physician treats the patient in wellness, 
The Inferior Physician in disease.\u201d
-Nei Jing
\u201cFood for Thought\u201d
How to merge prevention with managed care?

Can technology provide tools to quantify one\u2019s prevention effort? 
Elements of Daily Focus
Glycemic Control & Stress Response
Circadian Rhythm (linked to antioxidant status)
Movement as medicine
Influences on Stress
Jacobs GD: The Physiology of mind-body interactions: the stress response and the relaxation response. J Altern Complement Med. 2001.
Acupuncture and Stress
Michael Hollifield et al \u201cAcupuncture for PTSD: A randomnized controlled pilot.\u201d Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease, 2007.

Acupuncture demonstrated as equally useful to cognitive-behavioral therapy.
Applied technology

MRI study demonstrated acupuncture has measurable impact on brain areas known to respond to opiates.
Pariente J. et al. Neuroimage, 25. 1161 - 1167 (2005). 
Reproductive Medicine
\u201cChanges in serum cortisol and prolactin associated with acupuncture during IVF\u201d
-Magarellii, PC et al Fertil Sterility 2009.

\u201cBeneficial changes in serum levels of stress hormones while undergoing IVF, with higher rates of pregnancy and live birth\u201d
Integration of Pharma and Herbal medicine

John Chen \u201cChinese Medical Herbology and Pharmacology\u201d

www.naturaldatabase.com
*Details interaction/research validity
NIH funding on Tumeric
Food for Thought 

How might data on individual variance reshape patient care?

How can technology provide access to experts, education and social networks?

Chinese Medical Theory
Prenatal Reserves
Clinical Assessment
Qualitative
Elimination diets
Subjective 

========

Dieases of meaning.
Symptoms can become catalyst to grow.
Become healthier and wiser.
\"far from equilibrium\" 
Static - death.
Body replaces cells within 2 years.

To reorganize, more energy in system.

If you don't change your perspective, you've missed opportunity for growth.

Where can we put our attention where we are aware of resources that allow us to grow or change.

- Somatic Awareness. Bacall [ref]
Internal body sensations.
Culture does not dictate your physiology.
Application for focusing brain on where there is energy. In workshop session.
Thanks for the time.
5:30.

Kieth. If you get a chance to have him do the body work on you, it is great.
One final speaker. D. E. Duncan has another aspect to wrap up entire session.

Duncan: Theme. Really just a few minutes. 
What I'm going to talk about briefly.
Effort in experimental man project.
Tried to get every kind of test on the planet.
Been covering for last 10 years - what is in it for all of us.
the Linkage project.
What we hear from eye to IV, pregnancy to functional medicine. All fascinating by themselves.
How do we put them together in ourselves.
Way to big to handle all the details.
Working around country, trying to come up wiht ground work, framework, models that is critical to humans.
Many species do best when they integrate.
Long debate - for 400 years.
Fabulous discoveries.
Figure out how to integrate back into humans. The human organism.
Do some things ourselves.
We have a responsiblity to figure this out.
Also go back to prevalent sense from days when we didn't know much: US. Ourselves.
I'd love to have any of you participate in project from Kaufman foundation [ref]
Policy areas of law, media - as important if not more than science.
We do really well - better than anyone. We can pat ourselves on the back.
Not doing so well, overwhelmed actually - in translating this to rest of society.
Gap between what is being discussed here and discussion in DC about direct genetic testing.
\"Preliminary\" for several years now
What part of gap between innovation and application is natural.
Each technology takes time. FAX created hundred years ago.
Internet invented in 1969.

We can do a lot of structural changes and refocus funding.
End there. Thank you.

Keith: Kind of ending early. 20 min breakouts.
Until 6 pm. Amazing presentation on Skinput.
5:37
[Breakout sessions]
6:15 Dan Morris
Computers have gotten smaller.
The thing we call a computer went from laptop to mobile phone.
This is really different.
Device we compute on has become smaller than keyboard and mouse.
Now playing price in efficiency.
Introduces new research problems.
How to get back bandwidth.
If computers get even smaller, equivalently powerful in a ring.
Half the size of a finger.
Vision pieces - what might a computer look like if it gets smaller and smaller.
What are the right interaction pardigms.
Super tiny computers
Natural evoltion.
Input/output.
How do you talk to a computer that is really realy tiny.
Focus on input.
Let's try to solve this tiny tiny problem by using space.
interact on back of device.
Touch skin input higher.
Super super good touch.
Forget about computer itself, let environment be interface.
Put ring down, scratch or tap on desk.
Other things. Cameras being used.
Others at MS doing this.
Speech reco - totally believe this is in the future.
Let's turn bodies into the interface.
We know it really well.
Eyes free, hands free input.
Turn body into interface. 
Computer in your ring. Too small to practically input on.
Specifically muscle computer interfaces.
Skinput - acoustic signals for input.
Q: Weather in Seattle?
Super hot.
Best question so far.

Muscle activity.
200 years of medical applications.
Observed on surface or tiny needles in your skin.
Our unique perspective - what would typical able bodied users use this for.
Tiny arm band.
Watch electrical activity.
Fingers controlled by nerves in the arm.
Even just drinking coffee. Could still recognize gestures you are doing and control your computer.
We asked, is this a useful problem to look at.
EMG measurements.
Regular folks put on device. Could we recognize them?
Pressure?
Move up?
For pretty high accuracy, we can figure out what your fingers are doing.
Now we had $15,000 amp box.
Has all kinds of implications, not a consumer product.
Get rid of wires, gel.
Get rid of hand plopped on table. Make it mobile.
Kind of where we are at now: go from rather expensive gooped up with gel to small wireless radio we have built, sewn into sweat band.
Initial prototype in this space.
This gives you a feel:
[video Wirelss Guitar - sensor on each arm. 2-6 EMG sensors, pieces of metal.]
Get 100% on easy level of Guitar Hero.
Feel for where technology is at.

Q: Did you have to train that on him?

Classic supervised machine learning systems. 2 minutes on you that day.
It works so long as you get it on the same place.
Cross user still to be tested.
We know alot. The world knows alot. We can do better on cross user recognition.
Anyone who tells you sensor is be-all, end-all is just trying to make a buck.
We contribute in this space.
Let each technology complement each other.
Almost all touch sensitive surface has no idea which finger. Good at when/where. Not good at which.
In this video, using same armband, by alternating fingers gives different colors to touch input.
We can also get indication of how hard you are pressing. Reasonable input to ADD TO touch interfaces.

Q: Why is Microsoft so into table?

Our interest - to couple with surface - to complement surface. 

Q: Getting signals from 

Forearm.

Q: More precise ...

Muscles that control your fingers are in your forearm. Thumb muscles closer to hand.
Acoustic propagation.
Stethoscope is useful.
Can we use that for computer input.
Tapping his arm.
Same video slowed down 14x. Massive ripples down arm. Too fast to easily see.
Into arm and along bone.

If I tap on my hand and arm. Could I look at those mechanical motions and figure out where I am tapping.

Each has acceleromters - 5 -same as washing machine telling you unbalanced load.
Here are three examples - no machine learning needed. They are DIFFERENT.
For quick feel, % correct: as high as 95.5% 10 locations on forearm 81.5%

Subjective feel from [video. Tetris playing by tapping on hand]

What about output?
Q: Andrew: success rate for keystroke errors for people off street?
No technology - including touch - alternatives to keyboard/mouse.
Excellent question. Typo is not a mechanical error. People will make cognitive error.
did they tap where they meant to?
Output side is just as important.
Totally useless if you can't see or hear anything.
Feedback via bluetube headset.
Via projector - on shoulder.

Q: Research it causes on body by holding in certain positions.
Interactions so they are not cumbersome?

Next slide. 

Video here. Coupled with projector - shoulder mounted.
Menu on arm. Input/output that goes with me everywhere.
Kind of a vision for how to couple our input with other output.

Can't answer wearability with system in lab.
We want other sensors - accelerometer.
Then find what it is like to wear. Jostled around all day.
Future work.

Q: Alison: Really want to be hired by you to work on that.

Ergonomic and industrial design.
MS has expertise in these areas as well.
What is like to put on/off.

In addition to how can we get computers smaller ...
every time, computers have opened up whole new paradigms.
Who would have thought about texting to meet for movie.
What emerges when you don't have to reach for phone.
Micro interactions.
What is exciting, new.
Pretty wide open.
Sign off there.
http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/um/redmond/groups/cue/

Q: How soon?
2-7 years. 
How is that for useless range of numbers.
What is demand?

Q: Input. What about display in glasses?

Shoulder mounted example.
Head mounted glasses. No one wants projector that will occlude vision.
Either projectors or displays.
On body displays.
Spiderman pose - display projected in front of me. Device like size of watch.

People say, will never use speech.

Q: Andrew: 5-7 years out. Deploy this sort of technology. May have something requiring no input - something brain-electricity based?

Intelligent people say it will / will not work.
This many non-unintentional bits outs is not going to come from non-invasive brain interface.
Strikes against brain interface:
how much hardware.

Q: Non-invasive EEG.

Current invasive. Still doesn't provide bandwidth. 

6:43
Em: tonight Peter's danger talk at 8. Not 7:30.
E-mail 30 min ago regarding Phase 2.
Do no later than Saturday. First come, first serve.

Hey GSPers!

Several of you asked for the contact info for some of the speakers from last Thursday's Medicine track extravaganza.
See list and contact emails below.

**Also don't forget this evenings 6:30 presentation on Longevity and aging by Aubrey DeGrey and Dr. Stephen Coles. 6:30 in the Marshmallow room.

best,
Daniel
--------

Thursday speakers

1. Christopher DeCharms PhD (Neuroscience core lectures) cdecharms@omneuron.com

2. David Ewing Duncan (Experimental Man) david@davidewingduncan.com

3. Catherine Mohr (intuitive surgical, medical robotics) catherine.mohr@intusurg.com

4. Christopher Longhurst (Stanford- electronic medical orders/records) clonghurst@lpch.org

5. Michael McCullough (Emergency medicine, education) michael@mccullough.mailstreet.com

6. Harvey Fishman (Opthalmology) drfishman@fishmanvision.com

7. Matthew Rabinowitz, (GeneSecurity.net Genetic analysis/ in-vitro testing) mrabinowitz@genesecurity.net

8. Rachel Shneyer (Acupuncture , integrative medicine) wildflwr100@yahoo.com

9. John Amaral (body work) drjohnamaral@yahoo.com (*note SU and its faculty does not endorse this field or others in 'alternative medicine'... just thought it might be interesting exposure to what a large population seeks/ utilizes for alternative care :-).

10. Yvonne Cagle (Astronaut, Space Medicine) Yvonne.Cagle@singularityu.org

\"David Bolinsky\" \x3cdavid@xvivo.net>, 

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul01-MED
"Thursday 
7/1/2010 
9am - 11:15am
MED CL1 Intro: Exponential Technologies and Medicine + Medicine 101 
Daniel Kraft

Slides: (10 MB pdf)
https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0ByuGXnC_X6-QM2RjZTFkZGMtMWYyNi00YTA4LThiMzUtZmI0MmRmZDViMDdh&hl=en
Audio: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0B0vcBiirD3NQMzkxNDBkNjQtZjhlMC00NzM2LTlmYjktNjJmNTQ3MzY3Y2I4&hl=en

Kathryn will review later looking for any [ref] markers--She and TFs will fill these in with references, but all are welcome (encouraged) to add references / put in as many details as available.

9:08
Welcome to first Medicine track.
All of medical school in one hour.
Exponential medicine.

How do you measure wellness, disease.
Art of medicine.
All the data becoming available.
Health is part of ecosystem - provider, system, genes/environment.
Never simple.

Framework of contexts [excellent slide]
Definition of health is changing over time.
Providers interacting in different ways - more dispersed.

Year before TED conference -
introduced to Linda. Shared information. Shared information with Harriet.
K1A1B1A 
See that shared with Ozzie.
Own Facebook group
Hap(py) t-shirts.
Met through leveraging of cross disciplinary technologies.
Increasing importance of social networking - even in research.

Biology and healthcare also have exponential growth.
Power in the iPhone
Where in another 10 years?
So, rest of talk framed through exp.
Faster/ Smaller / Cheaper / Better.
More and more ability - now in imaging.
What used to take hours, now you have real time fMRI.
With this data, fasted, most complete - look inside his brain/anatomy to look at structure and function.
Beautiful animation derived from the data of his head.
Getting wiring of brain.
What area are active.
Medication to Meditation effects.
Diagnostic tools - PET, CT Scans. Look inside the body.

Let's get personal. Who wants a colonoscopy?
We can dive into the colon. Move through it. Gastroenterologist can see what they would see normally. Augmented with AI.
If they miss leison - AI could say, \"Whoa\" go back take a look.
Doing radiology readings at home in pajamas. Makes other docs jealous.

Virtual hospitals - surgery, patient care
Second Health [ref]
Flight simulators = forced mistakes.
Manidan - challenge the physician.

New era - merging with wirelss technology.
Digital stethoscope - amplify signal. I'll pass this along- you can try it out.
Lub and Dub - you can SEE it.
Send to other physicians. Small example of transformation of simple stehocope

digital stethoscope iphone app
http://www.thinklabsmedical.com/

IPhone and Android - can do anything we do in medicine.
Cross-referencing color / type drug IDs. Alreay available on pohne.

Most of medicine still based on paper charts.
Mandate for digital health records. 0nly 8% now. Going to 80%.
Powerful inferences from that.
Stream patient data to iPhone. See how patient is doing in ICU (Intensive Care Unit)/
Tradtionally you have to go TO the doctor. Moving now to telemedicine (www.americanwell.com). Much of care is \"talk therapy\".
Super -Skype.
Billing for that in some places.
Change to interation on-line.
Psychotheragy,
Group Therapy.
Wireless monitoring in the home. Just starting.
Health buddy [ref]
Uploaded to nurse practitioner. If you have a fluid status - in your lungs or to lose weight.
Helped Vetrans by 50%.
How do you feel? Connected to central facility.
EMR - Eletronic Med record
Personal records. If you can't talk or remember. All health care providers linked in.
Drawers whre you can layer information.
Open API (Application Programm Interface)
Digital self-monitoring. \"Body computing\"
Gave talk on measuring you.
Nike in shoe = measuers aspects of your run.
Worried about grandma at home falling - can predict fall, or call 911 if does fall.
Embedded into your clothes. Simple sensors exist today.

If you are in space, you want to be monitored remotely. Not tethered.
CPOD - Crew ...
Motion in 3D sapce.
Field tested in Chile. With Chris McKay. Went diving with it, telemetry of data back to NASA.
Shrunk. Being tested on Zero G plane. Leased to NASA for zero G experiments. 
How to prevent space sickness. They call it Vomit Commit for a reason.
Used to have halter monitor. Shrunk - iRhythm. Put on chest for week, put it in the mail, get analysis of your heart rate. http://www.irhythmtech.com/zio-solution/zio-patch/

Quantified Self. Meetup for this at tech museum in San Jose.
http://www.quantifiedself.com/
Look at own health. Own patterns. 
New device, Philips DirectLife [http://www.directlife.philips.com/] sensewear http://www.sensewear.com/ bodymedia http://www.bodymedia.com/
Slew of these coming onstream.
One major problem is compliance. People don't like to take pills.
Integration into Raisin pill. Patch on back tells family if you took pill.
Zeo device - will be available to try. Monitor sleep. Looks at phases. 
Wear a headband. Upload your sleep and hopefully improve them.

Fitbit - flower lights up. (pedometer?)
Hawthorne effect [ref]
If you can share that informtion, trying t lose weight. We'll have scale here.
Uploads your ewight to your Facebook page.
One new integration - watch 
Trace you r pulse. Wear strap, not comfortable
Pulse oximetere ?
Should be out in fall - and link to social system. Pulsetracer

Sea change coming for range of diseases.
How often you use an inhaler
Diabetes - levels

Technology coming.
In clinic - telepresense robots from Willow Garage.
World's best could visit you in the form of a robot - even surgeon.
Hopefully this will enable docs to spend more time with patients - higher touch.

From robots that visit to robots visiting inside body.
Do things surgeon could not do before.
3D vision inside patient.
Do things in a closed system. Overlapping technology. See blood vessels. Overlay CT scan . Tell where to go and where not.

Decision support. AR.
Remote mentoring.
The best surgeon in the word can be mentoring a surgeon in Mumbai while they work remotely in the US

Also going to scarless surgery.
Using natural orfices to insert instruments.

Pre planning on surgery and understanding that patient to decide what the optimal plan might be.

example: Patient needs a valve replacement, enter ER that already knows who they are via scan, personalized medicine and thereapy devices determine what the best operation is for that patient. Simulation operation is done and eventually the actual procedure is done and a Dr. never has to be in the room.

Robotic tech intervention in medicine can help in combat

Moving to the ability for our brains to control things, we can start to minituraize implants, put them on the brain which can actually allow patients to control wheelchairs and computer interfaces, example: LUKE Arm by Dean Kamen, using skin muscles not brain interface
Video here http://www.ted.com/talks/dean_kamen_previews_a_new_prosthetic_arm.html

Cybernics, Hybrid Assisted Limns (HAL)

Exponential growht of technologies to contain obesity: metabolism monitoring to reduce fat accumulation.

Getting smaller and smaller devices e.g. iPill, goes through gut, images, releases chemicals

Lab on a chip, micro tech is helping diagnostics in addition to therapy

Turning a cell phone into a microscope

Even further down the line: Nano-medicine - build things on a molecular level that will affect diagnosis or therapy
e.g. respirocytes, microbivores, and artery cleaners

Nano tattoos that could monitor your glucose levels

Personalized Medicine - delivering the right drug to the right person at the right time, today we are much more generic with our therapies
Using 23andMe to know risk and live accordingly

Proteome/Proteomics - the sum of all the proteins in the human body

Geo medicine - how your environment affects your health http://www.esri.com/industries/health/geomedicine/index.html

P4 - healthcare 
P4 Medicine Dr. Leroy Hood
predictive
preventitive
personalized
participatory

Health 2.0 - connected, crowd sourced - what drugs are working, what are the side affects
Google.org Flu Trends

Moving to targeted molecular & genetic thereapy
- background in oncology and still today most of what we give patients is just patient
- using a micro array to genotype a patient and use the specific drug for that patient
e.g. Gleevec - blocking mutant tyrosine kinase receptors chronic myeloid ...

Personalized oncology - CollabRX

e.g. Breast cancer , if you have a particular marker Tykerb and others can target just that marker

Cancer biomarkers: CEA

Innovation is challenging - lots of hurdles along the way of research and clinical trials

Prediction - that technologies of the future will positively impact healthcare to:
Empower
Enable
Enhance
Cure the well before the get sick

The future of Health = Stage Zero Medicine

How to leverage exponential technologies to make approval process faster?
How can we use computational biology to make the process more efficient.
Exponenetial tech is enabling you and your provider, enhancing wellness and preventitive abilities

Q: How will this affect practitioners? Telepresence allows more efficiency, most doctors are getting specialties now
How will this affect the poor bottom third of the world?

Q. Will crowd sourcing of medicine lead to open science?

In addition to what Daniel mentioned (the collection of medical data from many different sources) - there are communities formed to crowd source knowledge in specific disease communities:

http://www.patientslike me.com/als/community

there are many communities like this...

PLOS [ref]

On question of how we deal with negative genetic information-- not badly:
http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2009/07/15-01.html (\"despite the diagnosis, you're unlikely to become more anxious or depressed within the next year...\")

PART 2 ==========================
Slides: (10 MB
https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0ByuGXnC_X6-QZmZhZDQ0N2UtMGNjOC00OTE4LTk5MTgtMDcyNzQ5MTE5MDk2&hl=en

Embryonic stem cell - pluripotent, risk of tumor growth
Adult stem cell - multipotent, generally come from same patient
- blood forming blood cell in bone marrow is rare and can turn into all the different blood cells
- determine stem cells by oberserving function

[end of presentation]
Watch 2 minute Tech Update on YouTube: 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyNBZMjz2QU
on SU video server:
http://video.google.com/a/singularityu.org/#/Play/contentId=12569090359a5e04
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Thursday 
7/1/2010 
10:15am
MED CL2 Stem Cells & Regnerative Medicine
Daniel Kraft

Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0ByuGXnC_X6-QZmZhZDQ0N2UtMGNjOC00OTE4LTk5MTgtMDcyNzQ5MTE5MDk2&hl=en
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Second lecture - regenerative medicine. 
My home camp.
Repair replace or regenerate.
Lost arm - how could you regrow that limb.

Stem cells - could become any type of cell. Root of the cell \"family tree\"
Stem cells can come from embryos, there are adult stem cells in most of our tissues, from placentas, and from bone marrow.
We're not talking about treating people *with* pluripotent stem cells - if we did, it would grow into a tumor!
We're talking about using stem cells to recreate missing tissue
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cell_potency
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesenchymal_stem_cell
Blood-forming stem cells come from bone marrow. First stem cells described, about 20 years ago; really rare.
How was this measured? Have to verify that they can differentiate. One way is by using antibodies to distinguish the differentiated cells by proteins on their surface, and using flow cytometry (FACS, fluorescence activated cell sorting) to measure the antibodies.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flow_cytometry#Fluorescence-activated_cell_sorting

People in Hiroshima, Japan died from radation, not blast.
Firefly gene - that glows.
Stem cell can be seen moving to mouse brain.
'';'((((
About 10 years ago, NIH (National Institute of Health) put in stem cells for brain that ended up in heart. Revascularization - heart gets better.

Infarction - area of poor blood flow - can heal.
Patients with only 50% throughput improved significantly.

Example of cells being applied with a catheter (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catheter)

100,000 people lose lower limbs due to amputation every year. [ref]

Improve blood supply and put in patches to heart.
Grow in petri dish - organ genesis in general - happens in context.
De-cellurize heart. Leave structure. Can seed with stem cells which just repopulate the matrix.

They (the stem cells) know what to do.
Future of organ transplant. Might be possible to de-cellurize pig hearts, or print the matrix.

News last year about first artificial trachea. Seeded with endothelian stem cells - grew \"own\" new trachea. Successfully replaced the trachea

Artificial organs - bladder. Grown in bioractor.

3D printing of cells. Many groups working on this. Layer cells and tissues to create organ.
Organovo [ref]
Bio-ink
Print out what would be future vasculature - most important thing is blood flow.
Ideally those cells come from the same patient.

In the works today:
Parkinsons. Bone marrow cells made to become neural repair cells.
Spinal cord injury - addressed with neural stem cells
e.g. NurOwn
Alzheimers - may be halted or reveresed.

Where do stem cells come from? 
Bone marrow. Must be done about 200 times. Requires about 1 liter of cells.
Injection approach.

Cord blood stem cells - if you are just born. Parents want to bank away.
If child or mother has leukemia.
This is what half a liter of bone marrow looks like.
Spent a lot of time doing 200 hole puncture draws.
Patient's rear end looked like swiss cheese at the end. 
Maybe better, faster, cheaper way.
Came up with marrow miner - drill through cavity. Can suck out rich supply through one spot.

Possible to create bone marrow environment. 
Grow red and white cells without having to be a donor.

Cancer Stem Cells.
Most patients relapse. They've been inremission. But it comes back.
Reason may be: cancer stem cells.
Big guns of chemo,radiation leave roots behind.
These cells look different under the microscope.
Take 10 of these cells and you can grow a human breast cancer in a mouse.
These stem cells are the RIGHT target. Metastatic disease is what kills the patient - so this is what you want to stop.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metastasis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metastasis

Spinal cord leison. Could result from diving into a swimming pool. Could be fixed with these cells.

Science problems to overcome.
Political / ethical
How to differentiate cells
How to build organs
How could you make your OWN line - theraputic cloning
very expensive process. Take out nucleus from egg from donor. [video]
put in nucleus from new donor. Wait 14 days and off you go.

On the cusp of making \"induced pluripotent stem cell line\"
Each cell has same DNA.
Just a matter of re-turning on the program.
That is exactly what is starting to take place.
Yamanka [ref]
Viruses used to create IPS cell. This could then generate whatever you needed.

Core blood banking now. Put in cheek swab - let it be used for you later downstream.
Problem is viruses could cause tumors themselves ...
Another group using cocktail of chemicals, not viruses.

What drugs might help disease - as marked by particular cells.

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"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul14-BB
"7/14/2010 
Wednesday 
9:00 - 10:00 am 
BB CL5 Biotech that Matters: What's actionable? 
Thomas Goetz
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/present/view?id=0AWIj9HPeinaFZGY2cDNjOXpfNTMyZ2N4Y2tkZHE&hl=enz

10:15 \u2013 11:15 am 
BB CL6 Biotechnology's Darker Side 
Rob Carlson
Slides:

11:30 \u2013 12:30 pm 
BB CL7 Life in the extreme: From undersea vents to asteroids and beyond 
John Cumbers
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B2Ij9HPeinaFZTEzMzUyNzYtOTA5ZS00MzM0LTgwYjMtYTViNWFjNzUzNDll&hl=en

Raycho's birthday today. [cheers]

Andres Hessel: First four lectures giving you orientation to biology.

Linda Avey: Social layer
Business going exponential - data driven methods

Thomas Goetz, Exec Editor of Wired.
\"living by number\"
Book: The Decision Tree [ref]
http://www.amazon.com/Decision-Tree-Control-Personalized-Medicine/dp/1605297291/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1279124028&sr=8-1

TG: Hope this is going to be fun.
Themes in the book. 
More broadly, confluence between technology and health / health care.
Masters in Public Health.
Normally, antagonism from PH world toward tech.

Start with early example of biotech. 
Aspirin.
Invented by Bayer.

acetylsalicylic acid - a miracle
First true drug that pioneered pharma industry
Caused some stomach pains, even gastric bleeding.
Known side effect.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asphirin
So significant, FDA would have stopped it.

Another effect. Seemed to help with heart disease.
People who take it every other day have lower risk.
Took 100 years to find this out.
Negative effects found quickly. 
Positive effect not found until 1988. Confirmation.

One thing, looking historically - drug's beneficial effect - men who take it have 44% lower risk - people were having this preventive effect, but that pattern,
the A and B correlation,
was lost.

That pattern recognition is the result of big data.
Aspirin story belongs to Brin. 
Photo from mid-90's when he was in grad school.
Finding patterns.

Market basket analysis.
Start with cash registers. Very widely available.
Highly incentivized. 
Buy diapers and beer together? If you buy diapers, get coupon for beer.

Glean for insights. Get higher sales, improve profits.
Brin, at Stanford, wanted to mine all kinds of other datasets.
Student records, enrollment.
Web searches - which informed Google.
Market basket of medical records.
Great dataset related to aspirin - being captured, but lost.

My involvement was through travel.
Opposite of Google. So little appetite for innovation, they just wanted the big engines of industry to work.
SABRE - selling tickets.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabre_(computer_system)

In late 90's, problem was they lacked real ability to process it.
Not just travel, but whole approach to data
CRM - 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Customer_relationship_management
Data was there, but impossible, given state of computer systems.

- Everything we do is DATA.
Every function of daily life generates data.
Interested in the way that effects our health.
Decisions, operations - how to capture and analyze.
Like one big experient.
All these inputs and outputs.
If we can assemble the patterns, connections between A and B of our daily lives, we could learn from them.

Data mining for health is so important.
Opportunity now:
- computing power
- storage space
- sensors
Three trajectories.
Getting cheaper and cheaper.
Will review effects of these three.

- SCALE
- Exponential increase in computing power
- US Air Force Office of Scientific Reseach, 1953
Put together modes of transportation
http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2009/07/was_moores_law.php

- Moore's Law [original chart in \"obscure trade magazine\"]

- photo, 1954, \"Home computer of 2004\"
Computer will require not yet invented technology, but 50 years from now scientific progress is expected to solve these problems.

A lot is similar. The keyboard and monitor. The difference -- no steering wheel.

- 2004, state of the art, iMac
This is the pace of change transforming how we process and transform data.

- iPod, from 5GB/$500 to latest
Seen them get smaller and smaller and bigger and bigger

Starting Google - filled trunk and backseat with hard drives - wasn't a TB or data.
Now, same is $100 and you can hold it in your hand.

As things get faster, faster, better, better - you can move from cash registers, to web services, to medical records, to everything we are doing - as storage and sensors get cheaper.

- 5 m people in US have used Nike+
Oval thing is accelerometer - cheap.
Mandated for use in airbags in cars.
Measures motion in 3 dimensions.
All auto use gave huge incentive to make them cheaper and cheaper.
Then, so cheap, Nike and Apple got together and realized they could put these in shoes to track motion.
Now able to track calories, cadence, speeds, upload to website.
Number of runs per week,
calories per day,
set goals.
Haven't shown us what we can learn from that amount of data.
You can build on your OWN data, but not the overall dataset.

- zeo
Sleep tracking.
Simple sensor.
Classic type of sleep analysis. Go into sleep lab, but already messed up experiment. Not your own bed.
Sensors are cheap enough, measure brain waves.
Close to lab based experiment, but everyday in your own home.
Find patterns -
drinking too much, miss sleep
exercise more, sleep better
Zeo allows you to export data to other services, get re-use of data

Sleep is emerging category of health. Now finding associations with our health.

Power of combining
Lab of Quant Med, Harvard
- LifeMath.net http://lifemath.net/

Has combined simple bio-stats. Sex, age, weight, etc.
Gives specific suggestions:
take aspirin? How many days of life would this add.

When given blanket recommendations, may or may not be swayed.
In this country we are inclined NOT to do the things we are supposed to do to be healthy.
Getting people to change their behaviors is a huge driver of our health care problems.
When they can see how their behaviors have consequences, when they can see the trajectories of their lives, then behavior changes.
- Data means more when it's our data

Example
medhelp.org
Pregnancy Symptom Tracker
- Morning Sickness 
Compare your status with other women
About a third of women have morning sickness at the peak
- Mood swings
- Faiting - at the end it jumps to 35% in last couple weeks.
If you start fainting a lot, it means you are about to give birth.
\"I wonder if this is something that others have ...\"

- patientslikeme
75,000 individuals
ALS
Contributing granual data
symptom severity
drug dosages
how effective
all that data becomes grist for powerful insights.

400 patients who read a piece of research in Italian study of 12 people taking lithium.
So, with this hint, over 400 patients started to take lithium.
outpaced published research on remarkable scale.
Found, crunching the data together,
early - 6 mos in. Now 2 years in.
No effect in slowing.
But an insight. Crowdsourced verification of published data.

Brin.
Interested because he has genetic risk of Parkinson's
Thomas's Wired story [http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/06/ff_sergeys_search/all/1]
23andMe
Talking with Ann and Linda ...
Parkinson's Disease Genetics Initiative [ref]

Ask all kinds of questions. What possible associations might pop out?
Profound different way of thinking about science.

- illustration from Wired [http://www.wired.com/magazine/wp-content/images/18-07/ff_sergeys_search4b_f.jpg]
Association between gene and Parkinson's.
Researcher had hypothesis in 2004. Drove a dozen studies, with 5000 patients. Pooled that in meta-study with 64 authors.
Took 6 years. 
Traditional pace of academic research.

Then came 23andMe. About 5000 patients.
Roughly the same.
Had in 5 minutes, same precisely identical association as multimillion NIH 6 year study.
Altogether, 9 months to gather data.

- Back to aspirin
Things happening, we aren't asking questions.
Stuff exists. Patterns are out there. We just don't know it.
Combine data with health records, DNA.
New behaviors.
New interventions.
Better lives for all of us.

E-mail: thomas@wired.com
9:48 [applause]
Andrew: Use mic for questions.

Emem: from Nigeria. Wonderful presentation. Medicine still comes from the West. Human life started from Africa. Do we have ways to mine data from Africa? If not, collaborate? Very important, help with overlooked problems.

one of the problems with drawing relationships - most research done on European, white populations. If you come from a different race or background, associations might not hold.
Broadening of pool is starting to happen. Sequencing costs, from Carlson, are getting so cheap that it is much easier to test more people.
Not aware of specific project, but big at NIH.

Bryce: Fantastic presentation. I study policy in PH and systems. Specifically privacy. NHS (UK health service) - doing what you are talking about. Here, HIPA - difficult to have mass scale data gathering. Barriers? Increasing problems?

Interesting on privacy. They get a lot of attention. Megaphone is very large.
But, three populations in the US
10% privacy fundamentalists
10-15% people who don't care- nothing to hide. Not on the radar for them.
70% in middle are privacy pragmatists.
Depends on circumstances
Trade offs and benefits.
opportunity for benefits is increasing.
Join genetic study? Don't get data back. Kaiser doing huge project. Lots of general health data. But people in that study don't get data back.
Contrast Boston project
23andMe 

Abiltity - upside - health and DNA information is \"currency\" can donate to patientslikeme and get things back.
Contrast NIH research with grassroots, entrepreneurial opt-in research.
Agree to join because they understand the exchange that is going on.
Heartening trend.
Always in the best cases, with great diligence toward protecting information and knowing what is happening.

: Quantified self. How they live lives? Due to data? or culture of people who have grown up with dataset?

Quantified Self founded by guys in the Wired family [Gary Wolf and Kevin Kelly]
http://www.quantifiedself.com/
10:10 [applause]
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/present/view?id=0AWIj9HPeinaFZGY2cDNjOXpfNTMyZ2N4Y2tkZHE&hl=en

10:21 AH: Rob Carlson
Considered the Gordon Moore of synthetic biology.
Known Rob for about 6 years.
I'm an optimist.
Rob is here today to give a pragmatic look at 
risks
and opportunities.

Rob:
Original title was supposed to be \"Dark Side\"
but I have trouble with that.
More like \"Flip Side\"
Biodesic is my excuse to do this stuff for myself, rather than other people.
Everything I am going to say is in the book,
came out in Feb
my blog [ref]
www.synthesis.cc

Synth is a set of tools. Not end-all, be-all.
Does facilitate our abilities to make new organisms,pathways.

Here is the past - photosynthetic sea slug.
Multicellular organism - harvests chloroplasts.
Can subsist on sunlight for some number of days.

Harvard building photosynthetic fish.
Figuring out what they can inject -
Will have functional within 5 years.

Now cars.
Favorite.
Legos coming together.
Model of how they go together.
Honda Element.
All built that way.
Technology allows fabricating things this way.

Use of technology - mis-use - becomes important.

- Hierarchy
Single gene in a single cell.
Coming soon, multiple genes in single cell - for plastics
Malaria drugs - fuel from sugar.
Early next year.

Multiple cell types - Claudia Castilla - http://geeks.pirillo.com/group/biotech/forum/topics/esophageal-transplant-using

- Parsing the Spread
Biology does it better than other human technologies
Will move into production over next 5-10 years.
Beer instead of oil
Uncertainties ... price of oil ... what US govt does about electrification.

- GM stuff
GM Crops ~80bn
Biologics ~70bn
Industrial ~100bn dollars

Growing about 15% per year.
Currently at same level as mining in US.

- Scale and Regulation
More fuels / materials at an increasing pace in industrials.
With $10-100,000 you could have new protein with value in the marketplace.

- US Market Value of GM Crops
- Average US Corn Yields - No End in Sight 
More biomass, despite decline in planted area.
China has 80 bushels/acre. US at 160. Top crop 300.

- Global adoption
China 2.5% - target 10 years out - 8%
India 1.5%
Pakistan - all pirated GM copies 1.4%

- Arable Land
Who has resources? 
US has largest fraction.
Australia has largest land per capita
China / India at the bottom

- China and Biotech
Fermentation
About 40% of corn used for industrial production

- One Page Molecular Biology Primer
DNA, mRNA, etc.
- Oligo Synthesisand Gene Assembly
Patch short pieces into longer strands

- DATA
- Enabling Tech are Improving Rapidly
Moore's law
Commercially available DNA sequencers, synthesis

- Cost of writing and reading DNA.
Still pretty expensive.
Lot more economic impact from these things.

- Synth Bio
Cost of genes, the raw materials.
What is interesting, these lines come together
Difference is max profit margin - going away exponentially.
Limited lifetime. 
Desktop gene printers before too long.

- Longest DNA made
About a megabase now.
http://www.synthesis.cc/2010/05/booting-up-a-synthetic-genome-1.html

- Liquid Fuels Have a Long Future
Gasoline is better than everything else on power density / energy density chart.

- punch line: pressure to come up with alternatives.
Not clear there is a lot more oil to come ....

Clearly a different regime.
Steady from Jan 92 - 99
Different now.

- Biofuels: Food v Fuel
Dramatically oversimplified.
No one is turning vegetable oil into fuel.

- Biofuels: Diversity
If we need biofuels, we need a LOT more innovation.

- New Tech to Address Threats. SARS.
by time we figured it out, it was over
We are inept.
Takes a year from pathogen to vaccine.
SARS was over in 6 months.
If different, we would have needed a vaccine that wasn't there.

- The answer 
SBIR - garages - everything we rely on in modern life today.

- Micro-brew
Chart of craft breweries - grew up in industry dominated by large industry.
5% of beer by volume, 9% of revenues. [Brad?]

- Biomass
AGATE - food waste, green waste - replace 80% of fossil use, could go past 100% if we worked at it.
This is the future. It does not have to be large.

- Just what is a \"Biofactory\"
Small stuff.

- Costs of scaling up
Shell - $1 bn on doubling refinery.
Biology - double number of cows.
Won't cost as much to increase bio production.
- Combines.
Big Dog.
Mobile bioprotection facility.
Machine that eats leaves, forages to supply power.
DARPA building something that lives off the land.

- Mobile, Autonomous Biofactor.
Fusion of biotech

- Tech Dev is Distributed
Many individuals
Lilienthal 1891
Langley 1903
Chanute 1890s

- Synth bio
4 companies delivery 9% of DNA in the world
- iGEM [ref]
Design framework. Almost nothing works every year, but students are creative. Rephrase that: stuff works, just not the way expected.
Students scare me with the stuff they come up with: 25 genetic components.

- Sorona
Improved carbon production, higher yield per material input

- Synthetic Cells
Venter.
Bug he made had 1000 genes in it.
10s of person years - 
no ideas how to use 1000 genes.
Maybe 50 genes max. More likely use 15.

- Caveats
Diffusion is not always very fast.
Cell phones went faster - underlying technologies.

- Biology: WIRED cover. May 2005.
Think of threat, opportunity -- or REQUIREMENT

- My Garage lab.

- Distributed innovation
3D printing
RepRap [ref]
Fab Lab [ref]
Fab@Home [ref]

- LavaAmp PCR [ref]
USB powered. Not wall wart.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AC_adapter

- Shock of the Old [ref]
David Edgerton

- Unexpected Impacts of Prosription
Cocaine - Narco-subs
Meth
Use continues to rise. Now made in Mexico.
Created bigger blacker market - made it worse be enforcement
Markets worth billions of dollars for DNA. Clamp down? Profits will find a way.

- Akihabara [ref]
Maximize knowledge, Skills, Awareness [eduction?]

- Reading
Biology is Technology
http://www.amazon.com/Biology-Technology-Promise-Business-Engineering/dp/0674035445
The Big Squeeze
http://www.lulu.com/product/paperback/the-big-squeeze-new-fundamentals-for-food-and-fuel-markets/2969414
Genome Synthesis and Design Futures
http://archive.nodalpoint.org/2007/02/21/genome_synthesis_and_design_futures_implications_for_the_us_economy

10:59 [applause]

Q: Competition between nations.
Yes.
Q: 1000 genes
Venter - can write and compile 1000 lines of code
Copied them from nature
Problem is, don't know how to put 1000 genes together.

Q: LIC - bovine genome?
Won't help.
Correlation with traits.
Versus what goes on in a single cell.
going to take a lot of hard work - measuring.
Error bars on most biological experiments big.

Q: Alberta, Canada. Carbon? open source?
Objects that function.
World be safe.
Patents are crazy, expensive.
Capital cost, not including labor, but cost is 10x that - all lawyers.
Only thing I can do right now to defend invention.
Can't copyright DNA.
Need something to secure - or no one will invent.
Open source is a hack on copyright.
Brilliant.
Can't do the same for DNA. Wish we could.
Seems like sharing is better. But you still need $1 bn for a drug.
I'm confused still about what the future should be.
No ability to do anything with DNA other than public domain or patent.
Case against breast cancer claims - first time judge ruled on patentability of naturally occurring genes.

Erez: GM trends?

90% of corn/soy is GM
Sugar beets went to 95%
In US, not any barrier.
No physiological harm. Many \"stories\" say, but no empirical data.
Great benefits, don't appear to be any harms, like gene transfer, effects on pests.
GM label - if farm animal eats GM, meat needs label as GM.
- Unexpected Impacts
Might have to slaughter early, since non-GM feed was not available sufficiently.
Problem will come back. People will decide GM crops are OK.
China coming.
India/Pakistan coming.
I don't feel strongly, but I base my decisions on data.
We have 10 year history.

: Modified cotton.
Isolated case - piracy -

In 2005/6, Brazil was given official numbers, genetic soy +60% , taking over.
Approved in 2005. Just reported what they had been planting for years.
Most 1998 - farmers had taken GM cotton and crossed into variety with some disease resistance. Weren't following instructions.
Monsanto's products approved for 2012.
Suspect, given 30% economic benefit - due to pesticide use, not yield.
When we do engineer for yield, they will take over.

Hassel: Impression - we are going to have to build this.
Field of syn bio was just birthed a few weeks ago.
Will go exponential very quickly. It is greenfield.
Economic.
Regulation.
Fantastic blog at synthesis.cc
Book, wonderfully referenced.

Thank you Rob.
11:18 [applause]

11:30 \u2013 12:30 pm 
BB CL7 Life in the extreme: From undersea vents to asteroids and beyond 
John Cumbers

Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B2Ij9HPeinaFZTEzMzUyNzYtOTA5ZS00MzM0LTgwYjMtYTViNWFjNzUzNDll&hl=en

- Life in the Extreme: From Undersea Vents to Asteroids and Beyond
John Cumbers, John.Cumbers@nasa.gov, PhD. Candidate
Brown University, Molecular Biology, Cell Biology, Biochemistry
@NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA.

- [Hubble deep space image \"big bang\"?]
- Astronomer's Periodic Table
MOSTLY Hydrogen
- CHNOPS - used in life
- Ten most common elements in our galaxy by mass, estimated spectroscopically
- time line of life
Most interesting stuff recently, but started long ago
Whole long period of evolution bubbling away - 
- What is the origin of life?
Have we created synthetic life? [1/3 yes, 1/3 no, 1/3 not clear]
Venter's result.
- Early Earth: an organic chemistry lab
RNA & DNA - few building blocks, chain to form larger molecules
Amino acids - build things
Lipids - form cell membranes
Carbohydrates - energy carriers
Really cool thing in last 10 years, all found on meteorites we have searched in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctica#Meteorites

- Nicole Rager
Building blocks of life came from intrestellar space 
- Self replication is the key to origin of life
Venter hasn't done this yet [really?]
- \u201cThis is the very end of the line, where chemistry starts turning into biology\u201d
Science 2009, Self-Sustained Replication of an RNA Enzyme Tracey A. Lincoln and Gerald F. Joyce
RNA came first hypothesis. DNA can't really act as an enzyme. RNA can break bonds. Protiens are much more complicated.
RNA world was looking for self-replicating evidence.
One of the RNA enzymes they created was able to synth second, which could synth first 
Which led to exponential self-replication.
Just need to keep feeding in nucleotides.

- What do we contain it in?
Inside lipid
Put self replication in vesicle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vesicle_(biology).

- David Deamer, UC Santa Cruz
Formed by drying ...

- Extremes of Life
100 degrees - boiling at Yellowstone
pH 2 - like car battery acid
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothermal_areas_of_Yellowstone

- Is the Universe teeming with life?
Planets
Organic Molecules
Water
Energy 

- Nicole Rager
Meteorite impacts - when examined on Earth, some came from Mars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martian_meteorite

Back and forth. Cells that can survive inside rocks ...
History of liquid water on Mars, river deltas.
Mars much warmer,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia

- Is there a habitable zone?
- Is there life already on Mars?
May be just beneath surface.
In crevices where water was flowing.

- LIFE on the moon.
Much more unlikely due to the 28 day lunar month, 14days of total darkness
Night -170 degrees C. Very hot days.
- Synth bio:
Can we design organisms and ecosystems able to sustain us as we venture off-planet?
- Venter
- \u201cIf the methods described here can be generalized, design, synthesis, assembly, and transplantation of synthetic chromosomes will no longer be a barrier to the progress of synthetic biology. We expect that the cost of DNA synthesis will follow what has happened with DNA sequencing and continue to exponentially decrease. Lower synthesis costs combined with automation will enable broad applications for synthetic genomics\u201d
Gibson et. al May 2010, Science

I agree with that

- Problem with space is launch
John von Neuman photo - self replication - send small robots to Moon, Mars 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neuman

- Prince Henry the Navigator of Portugal: Leave sheep behind on island
(Translation from Antonio Cordeyro, Historia Insulana das Ilhas a Portugal Sugeytas no Oceano Occidental (Lisbon: Lisboa Occidental, 1717; reprint, Angra: Secretaria Regional da Educacao e Cultura, 1981 / The Azores Islands by Robert L. Santos).

\"sail towards the setting sun\"
colonized in 1433-1436 on Santa Maria and San Miguel

- ISRU - in-situ resource utilization
Better is \"don't take it, make it\"
- Why biology is the right tool for the job:
*Low mass
*Self replicating
*Fast growing
*Adaptable
*Flexible host
*A manufacturing technology

- Cells make protiens
- A cell can double in 20 minutes
- so a single cell, E. Coli, can become a billion cells in 24 hours
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E._coli

- Extremophile
chassis -> 

- Understand extremophiles on Earth

to yield

Engineer extremophiles for space
- 23andMe for microbes
Dessication tolerance
...
Harmful radiation
Grow in fridge

On chart - red IT DIED, green IT SURVIVED
What we are really interested in is the one from South Africa and this one from Galapagos.
Like 23andMe. Main gist.
Building protein toolkit.
Engineer other microbes to live in extreme environment [aren't these the traits the LIC guys are trying to sort out for dairy cows? http://www.lic.co.nz/lic_Home.cfm]

- Hybrid system
Cached consumables

- incredible picture of spider web silk

Magnus Larsson, a student at theArchitectural Association in London, has proposed a 6,000km-long wall of artificially solidified sandstone architecture that would span the Sahara Desert, east to west, offering a combination of refugee housing and a \"green wall\" against the future spread of the desert. 
http://bldgblog.blogspot.com/2009/04/sandstone.html

GenoCAD\u2122 is an experimental tool allowing you to build and verify complex genetic constructs derived from a library of standard genetic parts.
http://genocad.org

Imagine parts that allow living in cold conditions. Can I make another bacteria radiation resistant? Build up parts. 
[video showing how to]
Just give me this promotor region.
Building up step-by-step.
You could also automate this. Create 1000 different genomes and try them out.
Don't see any DNA.
Will press Print at the end.
output: attgtgagcggataacaatagg ....
Send that to a synth device.

- Quote from Editorial in Nature Biotechnology Dec 2009.

- Tom Knight, MIT : \u201cThe engineering of biology remains complex because we have never made it simple\u201d

12:17 [applause]
Hassel: How easy, only getting easier.
Doing 23andMe on current organisms. Any program to apply selective pressures? Morph them?

Instead of rational design, just use evolution. Keep exposing to higher levels of radiation. John Batista - rad resist e.coli
http://www.biology.lsu.edu/faculty_listings/fac_pages/jbattista.html

More interested in rational design, but evolution may win.

Q: David R/US: Extremophiles - protect or repair?

Some produce pigments that absorb. DNA also abosrbs. Radiation hits pigment.
Other novel repair - double checks.
Deinococcus radiodurans check if genome is OK.

Q: One or other, not both?

Biology continues to surprise me. No logic to how natural selection does it.
Lot of transfer of genetic material between bacteria.

12:23 [applause]

From today on, 583C 
Rock star VIP speakers
Bob Metcalf 1:30
Jack Hidary 5:30 - 6:30
Dean Kamen 7:30 - 9:00

Jose: All about Energy.
12:28

=============== POST-presentation notes

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1:30 Bob Metcalf - Enernet
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"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul9-NT
"7/9/2010 
Friday 
9am - 11:15am 
NT CL5 MEMS (George Skidmore)
Slides:https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaYzNkOWNkMWYtZmI5MS00YTQwLThiZDAtOTUzOWM1NmVmNDE3&hl=es
http://bit.ly/c46VxV
NT CL6 Positional Assembly (Ralph Merkle) 
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaNGQwZmI5NzUtYmQxOS00ZTgzLWE2YzQtYmJhYjAwM2ZjYTA4&hl=es
NCS CL6 Social Networks and Networked People (Kevin Marks) 
Slides: 
http://prezi.com/c2hwhoqdmlfj/social-web-standards/
http://prezi.com/jdqehbzqxlyr/social-web-tummeling/

=============== PRE-presentation notes

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If someone wants to put in the TITLE of the slide, like this
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=============== End of PRE-presentation notes

We should ask George Skidmore about IR chip fabrication cost.

9:20 Merkle: We will soon be starting our morning session.
MEMS.
The ability to use micro machines to make machinery at the small scale.
To introduce us to this area we have George Skidmore.
Zyvex? [ref]
http://www.zyvex.com/index.html
There for 7-1/2 years.
Now at DRS [ref]
Making actually machinery at MEMS scale.
Showing fascinating videos.
Showing what MEMS is doing today.
9:20 George: I'm over here running an infrared camera.
What it is doing is imaging the thermal radiation.
It can see coffee and cold drinks.
We build a lot of sensors.
Company I work for now is a world leader in these kind of cameras.
Come back to the main podium to get started.

Micromachines. Built at - couple of microns. Not quite nano machines of next talk.
Getting below micron now.
- Introduction to MEMS, NEMS and top-down nanotechnology
- Outline
A few product examples.
Been around for along time.
Operational principles
End talk on project
- MEMS/NEMS \"defined\"
Mechanical or electromechanical devices made with IC fab technology
Here showing gear train.
Sandia famous for these mechanisms.
Mechanical material is Poly silicon - sometimes single crystal silicon.
These are training wheels for nanotech, or a way to approach nanotech from the top down
There are other names for MEMS that will get thrown around
Microsystems Technology...Silicon Micromachines...but it's the same tech.
50 nm on guitar strings. Don't think it plays. Just sits there as a stunt.
- Length Scale
Dividing line
With wavelength of radiation - half micron - that your eyes are sensitive to.
Below that, nano.
Molecular is below NEMS.

Characteristic lengthscales:
MEMS: 10micron. NEMS: 100nm. Molecular Machines: 1nm.
-MEMS Products
Field has been around for about 40 yrs. First devices were pressure sensors, used in autos.
Inket printhead is MEMS.
Optical MEMS - MOEMS is a whole field. DLP is a prime example of that. Arrays of small - 15, 17, 20 micron - mirrors, physically moving back and forth and reflecting light.
IR camera would also fall into that class. But that's wavelengths greater than visible.
RF MEMS - resonators, switches, cellphone apps
Airbag sensor - accelerometer. If it weren't for federal regs mandating this, MEMS wouldn't be the field it is. Most of you have several accelerometers on you right now. Wii, iPhone, Android etc. Accelerometers are MEMS.
Microphones
Relatively recent
- Operational principles
- Gravity is basically irrelevant, but surface force becomes big.
- Electrostatics becomes big.
- Another thing that's really different is heating and cooling - they happen really fast. About 10ms time constant.

- Actuation - electrostatic
- Actuation. One popular principle is electrostatic - charge up two sides and pull them together. How DLP works. Picture shown is a comb drive. These are low power, 'fast' (in the mechanical sense) 50kHz. Disadvantages are weak forces.

- Example electrostatic actuated devices http://www.dlp.com 
DLP is an electrostatic device. It's an array of flat-plate mirrors. They have a via in the middle, but they're a piece of highly reflective aluminum. I brought a DLP chip to pass around. You won't be able to see the mirrors, though. There are three of these in the projectors that display digital movies. 2k by 1k cinema chip.
Now pico versions 640 x 480

- Actuation - electrothermal
Sending current through this device.
Chevron beams. Heat material up to get some motion from thermal expansion.
Thermal expansion is pretty small - ppm - so we have to use some amplification.
Slow in a mechanical sense - 1kHz.
- Fabrication Processes
In principle, as simple as any IC fab - about $1 bn. [ha ha]
Start with silicon wafer. Deposit. Etch. Repeat. Build up layer.
In the end, cut away stuff we don't want.
Even more complicated than $100 m. Thicker layers. 
Stress control is very important.
Unlike IC.
If you don't pay careful attention. Aspect ratios - 1000 times wider than thick.

- Simple fab - step 1
6 inch wafer. 
ICs use 12 inch.
- 2
Deposit insulator - don't use wafer properties except that it is flat.
Great mechanical, just platform
- 3
Build layers
- 4 
photo resist. Can spend as much as you want to get pattern on there
- 5
Transfer - reactive ion etches.
- 6
Strip off - either wet or dry
- 7
Deposit polycrystalline
- 8
Pattern with lith process
- 9 
Strip away.
- complete
Generally more complicated. 10 different layers. DLP will have 10-12 layers.
- Electrothermal actuator
One layer of Gold on top, make contact with it.
Thin film interference color.
Then e t actuator couple hundred microns wide, 2-3 microns thick.

- Other tech
Silicon will etch - AFM was early MEMS device
Etch facets to give peak. Almost atomically sharp, but not quite. 3 nm radius.
- DRIE
Deep reative Ion Etch
Straight through 10s or 100s of microns. Straight sidewall.
High aspect ratios.
Used in some accelerometers.
www.memspi.com

- surface micromachining
Probably most popular one
-off the shelf
If you want to explore on your own.
Multi-user MEMS
Equivalent of moses. MOSIS: a US DOD program to fund student fabrication of chips
A national initiative to aid smart kids to build real devices, yielded thousands of chip designers at the moment that new CAD software let anyone become a chip designer.
you can buy yourself 1 cm by 1 cm of MEMS
You'll get 15-20 copies
for $5-10K
Could not recommend more strongly.
Don't try to get own process, buy own fab
Great way to learn - university
But if you want somethign to work, use this.
http://www.memscap.com/en_mumps.html

- Microbolometers
Do we have a camera functioning. Pointed at me - great.
For this device, had to claim we built this 50 micron.
We are a bit behind what you can buy in CMOS megapixels.
We built wafer. Suspended with low conducing lace?
If I heat myself up, change the temperature, this little microbolometer absorbs that radiation
50 mK 0.5 degrees Cent. sensitivity.
Transducer vanadim oxide, changes resistance, interrogate and report.
Thermometers in an array 640 x 480 readout.

E6010 uncooled 640x480 resolution, 25\u00b5m pixel pitch LWIR camera (~$10k)
http://www.drs.com/Products/RSTA/E6010.aspx

Plastic/glass not transmissive in the IR. So we don't use them in these optics.
- DRS
Need to package in a vacuum package.
Vacuum stainless package. Will hold vacuum for a decade or more
before they leak their vacuum out.
Glass window - germanium. Transmits IR.
Then take that detector and connect to a bunch of electronics to do correction.
Put another germanium on the front and you've got a working IR camera.
- Top down nano
How do we make these machines do things
Thermal camera doesn't move.
So what can we make move?
Project to address issues -
Parallel, exponential, or convergent
- MEMS Assembly - Core technology
2001-2006:
Gripper mechanisms
Actuators
- Mircoconnectors
http://www.zyvex.com/
Places on parts to grab.
All the things necessary to put something together with microassembly
Microgripper tool
- Microassembler
5 degree of freedom device
- MEMulator
[video]
In line with physical systems, also developed software.
Design them, program robot to pick and place parts.
This is a model tool. Sold off. Part of tool suite. Called SEMulator.
What you would see under scanning electron microscope.
At least one tool out there to explore MEMS assembly entirely in software.
-http://www.coventor.com/coventorware.html
In real world, this is the assembler.
10micron
50 nm precision stage to do this
So we were able to do this in a completely automated way.
From this length scale, you get full robotic effect.
-
[vide]
Same sequence from camera up close
Liked high prcision parts.
Robot sytem to build.
Able to demonstrate microscale assembly and explore one of the ideas,
parallel assembly
-
[video]
More than one part at a time
Able to get pretty far in the real world.
never did demonstrate exponential assembly.
If we want to talk about actual assembly - need to talk about large numbers of parts. Many many at once.
Joking around one day. Eric Parker said we need to do parallel. let's do exponential. Try it. Started designing all these MEMS things. Rotational stages, put all those tings together.
Wafers. Two together. Step across. Have those 2 build 4, then 8.
Orthogonal XYZ then put rotaitonal onto MEMS parts tehemselves.

One with gripper. Build mirror cpies. Put first together somehow.
Then full exponential ...
Only in software to date. But this is the concept.
This looks like gripper. Rotational stage. Electrical traces.
Make a couple of stages, then put that robot to work.
Then you only need those degrees of freedom for the exponential to occur.
Concept is still sound. One of these days someone will be able to pick this up again.

9:53

- Summary of MEMS
Around for 30-40 years. 
in consumer products.
Steal all we can from IC
Electromech, etc added.
Been considered, still is, worthwhile approach. Work our way down to nano.
9:54 [applause]
Merkle: Excellent talk.
: Major hurdle?
G: Connectors. Robotic pick and place. Full rotational stage. Did get assembly done. Never did get second one. Ran out of time and money.
Some of these snapconnector mech are not robust enough.
Probably need bracing
Merkle: What is the product that would have generated revenue stream to support research?
G: Good answer too. Tech barriers, but putting one of these togehter - any MEMS product - no body knows the right product.
MEMS is a miltary product. It can be expensive. We can have a dedicated fab for it.

Derek: Neat talk. MEMS in small approachable scales. Assembly robots, some pretty high cost. 50-100 quantity. What about assembly?

G: Another cost barrier. ir camera. Taking MEMS and wirebonding it up to interact in the real world. Generally silicon cost is less than packaging cost.
Generally prohibitive. each is unique.
University lab environment you can play with probes.
In real world, you will spend
We spent 50-75K on assembly. Today maybe 25K.

Sasha/Canada: If not constrained by IC process.Is there a differet, ideal way to approach mfg?
G: [very thoughtful] Don't know an answer to that. I'm a little too stuck in the real world of how you get things built. How to do what we can. Never thought through the ideal way. See Merkle. Sorry.

Ala/Abu Dhabi: What makes ... silicon appropriate? How powered?

G: Silicon is mechanically extremely good. Exceptional for this kind of device or small MEMS. Metal at small scale is ductile, maleable. Silicon is like a rock. A piece of glass. Covalently bonded. Always, after you've bent it, comes back to shape. Until you break it. Perfect elasticity.
Glass, silicon, other ceramics.

Si and Si oxide. Ralph likes diamond. 

Second. Power. In every case, we run a wire to it. Big fat gold bond wire 100microns at least. Very few energy harvesting mechanisms at this scale.
Packaging issue. How do you get power to it. Big constraint.

Emiliano: 
G: Question is, RF applications? Look up sitime http://www.sitime.com/
They build resonators - clocks to replace a quartz crystal.
Could resonate in RF frequencies
Switches for radar
Phased array antenna uses these.
RF signal can be switched fast.

David Roberts: Half a cm too big?
Definitely on large side. Max 200 microns. Never more than 50 microns thick.
If you built specific, could be assembled. Would need specialty rig.

10:05 Break. 
Merkle: IR camera set up. Pointed at audience. Have fun. Break until 10:15.
[applause]

[great fun with IR camera:
white fingerprints left on side of cold beverage, front of shirt
Javier's hair is very black - still damp from shower
Air cond vent is very black
Bottom of laptop is white hot
Glasses show as black - they are mirrors to IR
Julielynn poses with her IR photo projected behind her
You can see her bra through her clothes!]

10:17 Merkle: Next speaker will be starting soon.
NT CL6 Positional Assembly (Ralph Merkle) 

- Molecular nanotechnology
self assembly and
positional assembly

-Arranging atoms
Self assembly \u2013 molecular parts move at random and \u201cstick\u201d when complementary surfaces happen to meet
Positional assembly \u2013 molecular parts are held by molecular \u201chands\u201d and \u201cstick\u201d when reactive surfaces are pushed together

Voila, they stick.

- Solution-based chemistry
Reactants interact in random orientations
No \u201cpromiscuous\u201d reactants
Uses multiple weak interactions to achieve both strength and selectivity
Reactive environment (water) participates in many reactions
Solubility is critical

Dealing with reactants in random orientations.
Has some implications. Can't have promiscuous reactants.
Better not have things that liketo stick, they are going to stick in the wrong ways.
Have things that like to stick, but mutliple interactions, but if everything lines up perfectly, then they'll stick.
Multiple weak interactions.

Other thing, in a solution. Part of the processs. Water participates. It is active. Self assembly . Soluability is crucial. Better be in solution, if precipitated out, going \"thunk\" - can't have that. A lot of stuff has problem being in solution.

- DNA nanotechnology
Lot of neat stuff. We've had that talk.
Huge space, under active investigation.

- Examples: 
alpha helix and 
beta sheet in proteins

Protien folding. Designing proteins. Huge range of known, more understood every day. Whole range of things. Structures related to proteins and artificial things close to proteins. Range of things abstractly like proteins but easier to synth.
People studying for many years feel they have a handle on it.
De novo protein design - can do it for a function.
\"Here's a protein, what does it do?\" still a hard problem.
Possible to design proteins today - fit to purpose.

- Phospholipid structures
Lipid membranes. Everywhere.
Hydrophobic and hydrophilic (likes water), you find if you take them and throw them in water they cluseter in fairly charcteristics ways.
Micelle puts all the water loving parts exposed to water.
Works pretty good if you have a small amount.

Liposomes - oily parts on inside. Water outside. Inside water. Membrane separating the two.

Phospholipid - occurs in huge number of biological systems.
Oily layer on inside. Layer that likes water on outside. You find that this structure occurs quite naturally. Repeated - a common motif throughout biological systems.

- Molecular machines
Bacteriophage - inject DNA into cell T4

- Making proteins
The ribosome. Now beginning to represent a core concept in positional assembly, stringing together amino acids - not by self-assembly, but by positional assembly. Device which positions individual amino acids - growing chain is bonded not by self- but by positional assembly by being held in position by ribosome.
Perhaps the simplest example of positional assembly.
At the heart of programmable protein synthesis.

How many dont know what a ribosome is?

This gadget takes messenger RNA. Biological punched paper tape. Follows messenger RNA - chucka, chucka, chucka, chucka, chucka - grabs the transfer RNA with specific amino acid on it. Binds to previous one. Hangs onto transfer RNA, so this gadget can program a chain of amino acids.
you give it a specification and it makes that protein.
A programmable device.
At the heart of biological activity in all living organisms.

- Positional assembly
Now we come up to the concept of positional assembly.
We use our hands.
Has let us build everything in the room.
At the scale of atoms and molecule, same principles.
Scanning probe microscopes or related devices.
How do they work?
This atomic force microscope allows us to add or move an atom from a surface.
See, touch and modify a surface.
Such devices should also let us build up structures. Happening in the future.

- Bending stiffness
Want to get across one point: 

Thermal noise causes positional uncertainty at the molecular scale
This uncertainty can be calculated if we know:
\u201cstiffness\u201d k
temperature T

Rattling of small molecules due to boucing around of thermal noise. Motion due to temperature. Temperature is caused by the motion of molecules and atoms. This positional uncertainty is a constant problem. If you hold a device - it is wiggling - Nature's Parkinson's disease.
We may have problems with this.

Molecular device will have uncertainty:
Caused by higher T. If lower T, less noise.
Better bracing. Thermal noise less.
Two critical factors: T and stiffness.

- Thermal noise
Equation.
sigma ^2 = k sub b T / k
k: restoring force
k sub b: Boltzmann's constant
What you plug in to make equation work
T: temperature

sigma: mean positional error

- 2 (with numbers)
10 N/m for k.
What is 10 newtons per meter. if you pull tip aside by 1 m, it wil have a restoring force. More you pull, more the restoring force.
Bigger the displacement, the larger the force.
Only pull a little bit, small force.
10 is a pretty reasonable number.
10 N/m is reasonable in scanning microscope context.
Can have much smaller restoring forces.

Boltz: 1.38 x 10 ^-23 J/K -- can't play with this

T:300 K is room temp
sigma: 0.02 nm (0.2 angstroms) 
possible to have molecular device which can position to within a fraction of an atomic diameter.

If someone says, \"Positional assembly is not possible\" you can now argue not only from biology, but you have equations which prove it is.
Gee. it looks like we can have molecular machines.

Questions. Pretty core point. That's why i'm hammering on it with several slides.

Q: how controversial?

Used to get a lot of flack? Anything recent? Been several years. Maybe I should give up countering it. Last year's battle. Still some arguing against it somewhere. Still habitually arguing. Old habits die hard.

- Example
Experimentally. i've shown this? Yes.
We can arrange on surfaces

- The goal
Nature has given us this set of lego(R) blocks.
Some of them blow up quickly. Lot of those we need to be careful.
Stable isotopes common in nature are available. 
Different price tags. Perhaps use less of the expensive ones.
like to be able to arrange those in most of the ways permitted by physical law. That's what we want.

- Three elements: H, C, Ge
Fewer elements makes the problem easier to analyze and easier to do
H and C can build almost any rigid structure (diamond, lonsdaleite, graphite and graphene, carbon nanotubes and fullerenes, polyynes, other hydrocarbons)
Ge provides \u201cjust enough\u201d synthetic flexibility

A simpler model - focus on smaller number, understand them well. Build large number of things. Rob and I focused on three. H, C and Ge. If actually trying to go through all the reactions, limiting the elements is helpful.
Hydrocarbons let you build a whole bunch of useful stuff:
diamonds
buckyballs
the latest major breakthrough in labs - graphene
polyines - whatever they are, they're great
Whole bunch of really valuable stuff just from hydrocarbons
If only capability we had, that by itself would revolutionize manufacturing.
Then we threw in Ge since it was hard to get H and C.
We just seemed to need Ge. You had to be there. Couldn't figure out how to make it work. Maybe could have done it without Ge.

-What to make
Property Diamond\u2019s value Comments

Chemical reactivity Extremely low
Hardness (kg/mm2) 9000 CBN: 4500 SiC: 4000
Thermal conductivity (W/cm-K) 20 Ag: 4.3 Cu: 4.0
Tensile strength (pascals) 3.5 x 10^9 (natural) 10^11 (theoretical)
Compressive strength (pascals) 10^11 (natural) 5 x 10^11 (theoretical)
Band gap (ev) 5.5 Si: 1.1 GaAs: 1.4
Resistivity (W-cm) 1016 (natural)
Density (gm/cm3) 3.51
Thermal Expansion Coeff (K-1) 0.8 x 10^-6 SiO2: 0.5 x 10^-6
Refractive index 2.41 @ 590 nm Glass: 1.4 - 1.8
Coeff. of Friction 0.05 (dry) Teflon: 0.05

Source: Crystallume

Diamond is wonderful
Bigger band gap
Pick any property and diamond is either best or near the best.
Gravitate toward diamond.
Exception: throat of a rocket. Diamond burns. Not ideal there.
Wonderful material for almost anything.
this is why it is fantastic.
Could arrange it in all kinds of shapes.

- Making diamond today
Chemical vapor deposition.
Some highly reactive plasma. all kinds of reactive stuff.
Lots of H.
Reactive C.
over a growing diamond film.

- Diamond growth
Diamond CDD - swiped from group in England.
Add CH3.
Diamond 1oo surface. Bit of diamondin red.
Now we focus in on those C atoms and see an atomic H flying in from that plasma. Slams into H. Sometimes will bond to make H2. That flies away into plasma. Result, C with dangling bond. Officially \"unhappy\" Chemists say, \"open shell\" etc.
THEN you get highly reactive CH3. Notice 3 H atoms. Recall from chemistry that C likes to have 4 bonds. IT is unhappy. Flying through plasma. When one unhappy C meets another unhappy C they bond and become happy.

The wonders of chemistry.

One way growth of diamond happens in diamond CDD.

- Postional assembly
NOW the interesting bit. Suppose we want to build diamond with control

A strategy for the synthesis of diamondoid structures
Positional assembly (6 degrees of freedom)
Highly reactive compounds (radicals, carbenes, etc)
Inert environment (vacuum) to eliminate side reactions

So what we want to do is positionally controlled. 
Same or similar sequence with molecular tools to accomplish simliar result.
Now we have again, small fragment of a surface. Bring in a tool, highly reactive. Not a H atom. But it is highly reactive.
These two H are 
This C wants to form one more bond. It has in its heart a deep lust for a H.
It has a higher affinity for any structure other than Flourine.
So this C atom has a higher affinity for H than this (further back) C atom,
the H pops off.
If we are to believe computational chemists, the barrier is zero or close to zero. Should occur readily at almost any temperature.
Recall how H2 goes flying off.
Here H removed, radical site on the surface, creating a synthetic analog for the natural process.

Now we bring in a seond tool ... [what happened to the color coding ralph?]
Ge is big and plump and soft.
Soft squishy - this C has two H and one Ge. Unhappy with 3 bonds.
This one on surface is unhappy.
C that was unhappy bonds - nice strong bond between C atoms.
Now, when you pull away, C-Ge breaks, and you are left with an unappy C.
Finally you come in with a H donation tool. H bonded to Ge by soft squishy weak bond. H prefers strong bond to C. Jumps to C. Tool,then withdraws.

Left with C bonded to C - with 3 C on it- jsut as in natural analog.
Done with tools. At specific location. Carried out analog of natural diamond growth in a controlled way. Repeat. Build precisely what we want.

Those three slides are at the heart of what I am talking about.
Remember those three slides.
Did they make sense? Questions?

Emiliano: Diamonds in nature take ages. Vapor takes time. How fast for this?

Actual chemistry - the reaction here will take picoseconds. Motion of tools could take much longer. Drexler estimated microsecond.
Speed of scanning probe - much longer - minutes for existing tools, seconds for future gen tools. Conceptually very clever down to microseconds.

other time you might be talking about - one atom at a time - a lot fo positioning of atoms. There the answer is do it in parallel. If sufficiently parallel you can do it as fast as you want.
Systems description coming in future lecture.

Q: How precise can you position tool with respect to molecule.

Love this audience. right on. This tool is going to have to abstract this H. If off, you are building the wrong structure. This is 2 angstroms. If off by an angstrom - forget it.
Depending on tool, strucutre, a half to quarter of angstrom is required.
Can we get that?
Scanning probe microscope - can see fraction of an A.
We have tools on order of these things.
Another very good quesiton. 
Do we have necessary accuracy? Yeah. We do.

- Molecular Tools
HAbst, etc.
HAbst HDon GM Germylene Methylene
HTrans AdamRad DimerP GeRad
- Tool properties
Starting from small feedstock molecules, a set of tools can:

make another set of tools
recharge all tools
make stiff hydrocarbon nanorobotic devices

- H recharge
Recharging HAbst and HDon
(initial approach of first GeRad optimized by Tarasov et al (2007), -0.43 eV with -0.1 eV barrier)

Second GeRad abstraction -0.83 eV

Start on left. H Abstraction tool brings up H. 
Bring it up, bond weakened. Bring second tool up. Bond with Ge. H will go away. Now, if you pull this Ge away -- if you pull these two tools apart, something will break. CC triple bond will not break. CC single bon will not break. This C has 3 bonds. this Ge has 3 bonds. So C-Ge is weakest bond and so it breaks.

Q: How do you pull? Would you lose traction?

Structure is much larger, robust.
Robotics question.

Q: Done in vacuum.

not protein engineering with this.

People get confused - in solution right?
Whole learning curve to get notion of \"held\" molecules.
Takes awhile to absorb.
Different along one axis OK.
If differnt along multiple axes, you are on the ceiling. Strange.
But it actually happens.

- Inputs/Outputs

100% process closure
9 tools
Can use C2H2, Ge2H6 as feedstock
Or use germanium surface for
C and Ge feedstock presentation
Six(?) degrees of freedom positional control

Might be able to get away with less.

- Technical Details
A Minimal Toolset for Positional Diamond Mechanosynthesis

Journal of Computational and Theoretical Nanoscience Vol.5, 760\u2013861, 2008 
by Robert A. Freitas Jr. and Ralph C. Merkle
Bibliography of over 50 references on mechanosynthesis at
http://www.molecularassembler.com/Nanofactory/AnnBibDMS.htm

- Experimental
Philip Moriarty, University of Nottingham (U.K.)
Five-year \u00a31.53M ($3M) grant, August 2008
Investigate Freitas/Merkle DMS toolset
http://www.MolecularAssembler.com/Nanofactory/Media/PressReleaseAug08.htm

- Hydrocarbon universal joint
- Hydrocarbon bearing
-
- Molecular robotic arm
Build tools to build more robotic arms.
11:24 [applause]

Erez: How abundant is Ge? Will it be a needed commodity?

Ge in these devices would be a \"vitamin\"
H and C are fairly common.
Silicon is very abundant. Sand. Useful construction material.
One might wish to build out of sand. Computer chips, for example.

Erez: So sand will become expensive and diamond will become cheap? [;-)]

Lots of sand.
Lots of C in the atmosphere.
Emiliano: Bootstraps. Something that scales.

how do we get this process rolling.
Focused resources. Money. Focus. 
Possible to take large sums of money and make it vanish.
If you have a focused effort, possible to achieve remarkable things.
From technical perspective, some high precision device.
Paper required reactions.
Whole bunch of research along that line.
collaboration website lists chalenges.

Davidad: Suppose you just want diamond skyscraper?

If you can build it with atomic precision, you'll get better materials properties.
I need to describe materials we cannot build - things on margin of
Nanotubes.
Outrageous materials beyond our capabilities - simply notin the cards.
On-board computers, on-board communication. Sensors/communication abilities.
Respond to environmental changes.
Can take blows. Much more responsive.

Take alook at nanotubes. Imagine they were cheap. Much lighter, stronger, higher loads. Even lower cost would have a big impact.

Look at NASA's need. PhD on impact of low cost, light weight, drops cost of getting to LEO by orders of magnitude.

Q: Briefly mentioned ribosomes. orthongal translation - other polymers?

DNA encodes information, also has other requirements. Not perfect information storage. Perhaps other would have higher density, not require water around it. 
DNA is actually quite good. Wow. Lot of information in a fairly small number of atoms - compared to today's disk drives. 

Big gap between disk drives and DNA.
We can probably beat DNA.

Q: About DNA. At the moment. 3 nucleotides. 20 amino acids. Increasing to 4 - lot of new protein structures? Jump ahead for nano in biology?

I don't follow that closely. Could redesign ribosome in new ways.
3 codons specify. Right now you could remap, specifiy more amino acids.
Appears feasible. Current capabilities could do that if worthwhile.
Right now, genetic engineering folks have a whole range of options.
I wouldn't dream of telling them what to do.
Venter has been doing a whole bunch of interesting stuff.
New bacteria from genome typed on computer. Whole range of possibilites.
Whole bunch of people interested in those things.

Going over now. Have to cut myself off as the moderator of myself.
11:36 [applause]

Question from backchan.nl:
Question for Ralph - How pure / clean do the source materials (hydrocarbons) need to be for nano machines? How far are we from being able to shovel in crude material and have nano machines come out the other end?
Chris Lewicki
TP Space

Salim: 2 minute break. Introduce John Gage.
11:42 Getting started. 
11:44 John Gage
How do you encode information in small spaces.
Use material to store information.
Late 40's. Ideas - using magnets. bits of wire.
Claude Shannon
Evolved with people making things
How would you do a program to follow instructions.
Lady Ada, Babbage.
Loops, instructions, algo
Working on themselves
Making things. Ralphs world, same ideas hold.
Encoding lots of information.
When thought of what woud be interesting to you -
apply algo to physics
do what differential eq
Maxwell
Let design system help a human.
Copper big, today small.
How much current flowing through will melt it.
If you let system guide you, it is useful.
Now in synthetic life.
Multiplicative power of combinding computers and humans.
Things we didn't undersatnd in 4050/60s. Maybe a bit of 70s.
Make books by links. Out of Belgium. Microfiche. Nothing new.
What is new, billions of people interact wih each other cost free.
Form of interaction with physical world.
Never could \"see\" before.
Just seen things never seen before.
CAD allowed seeing things you couldn't see in VLSI.
In designing talks, pose a platform for questions.
Above computers, logic -- how does this change us as humans.
Extend our understanding, join human intelligence.
Consider new questions.
None of us really have answers.
Next 8 weeks, want to be able to talk with you.
We will be here - will drink wine -an organic compound used in science to make things happen.
I have used a test case to see how applicable this could be.
Try living in aworld with no electrons. Farming with rain fed agriculture.
you are 1 billino and a half people. Not all people getting so much smarter.

Had a meeting with guy who runs China Mobile. He's quite happy. 550 mil internet subscribers. Did something - remotest parts of china have internet access. Could not do in any less succssful company.

Imagine we are Wong of China. What could this do as social being to collaborate together.
11:51 Salim: Thank you John [applause]

Kevin Marks will talk about open standards.
Chief evangelist for Google open social.
Social networks an dopen standards.

Kevin: Two presentations. 
Ideas from social
Go through quickly
- [Prezi] Open, Social Web Standards
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenSocial
[http://www.xkcd.net/256/ - map of social networks]

About a billion users have implemented standards.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Openid - requires URL
[ref] uses e-mail to get to URL

\"a phatic expression is one whose only function is to perform a social task, as opposed to conveying information\"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phatic
Activity streams

[ref Salmon]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salmon_(protocol)

Delegated login. Choose where your home is. Information can flow back to places you are interested in seeing it.

To do this, we need permission. Difference between permission and consent.
Standard called OAuth [ref]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oauth

Examine universe. What have people built. How can we make them interoperate: microformats.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microformats
Reusing HTML. Agree we will call this the same thing.

Distinction from programmer's perspective. You feel like a bespoke tailor. If we agree on standards, we can just make t-shirts. May not fit like a suit, but much cheaper.

Working out the social politics of who you can trust and why ...

Hubristic premise of social sites: we can arrange social interaction.
Most of our cerebellum is aimed at social interaction. Lots of neurons - about as many as there are nodes on the internet. So it will be awhile before the internet will catch up to our capabilities.. (Maybe sacriledge here at SU).

[second presentation]

Stocks and flows in social world. Idea is you are part of a flow. Living inside the stream, in it, 
danah boyd [ref - quote]

If you've got face next to piece of information :-) you respond to that.
I trust Chris to recommend a restaurant. We have very nuanced models of people in our head.
Trust / Friendship /Context - rather than replicate in computer, just use faces to leverage brain.
Modifications to that - retweet - unfamiliar faces showed up, made people uncomfortable.
- Phatic - not carrying information.
Kind of social grooming like monkeys do.
Behavior makes much more sense.
People sending emotions to each other.

google is to machine
Twitter is to a human

Took someone oxytocin 13% higher - feeling loved from using Twitter.
Who cares what you had for lunch? my mum.
Low information content matters to someone.
By viewing these emotional updates, get a much better social sense of the person.

- Following Power Parasocial

Classic model. If I know your name, I can annoy you. 
Later 200 people you don't really know.
\"Is this person your friend?\" 
Lot of second order behavior. Because un-friending is so harsh.
Say, \"Oh, I forgot password. Did I lose you? Blame technology for social machinations.\"
- Semi-overlapping Publics.
Used to be only one paper of record.
Metastasized with large media organization.
Every document creates its own public.
Something bumping into quite strongly.
Not trying to address whole world - massive shift.
danah - \"idea of public is not about all people across all space and time. They want publics of peers, not publics where creeps and parents lurk\"
Just because something is on the internet does not mean it should be on TV.

- Democratization - Mutual Media
Choices made used to be important.
Now mutual. All looking at a bunch of things, acting as a filter.
We are neurons in a global brain
Fear was internet will choke us in information.
Each of us is a filter for everyone else.
Collectively better information.
Personal information.
Watch how people use networks.
Apart from personal / emotional stuff, it is \"I found this interesting\"We are getting more intersting view of world than when it was filtered for least common denominator.

- Small World Networks.

With real world networks, mostly local. Few long range connections.
6 degrees [ref]
Exponential law of connectivity. Look at lnumber of links vs. frequency, you get 1/x type of curve.
Only historic accidnet that we use top of curve.
Ties to mutual media idea. Information will pass through, whereever it starts from.

- Homophily.
Out-gorups
Minimalgroup paradigm.

Start with family. Associate with people like us.

Out-groups - attack and make fun of them.
Examples: 
Oliver James on Twitter in London Times: 
bit.ly/wolff_myspace
bit.ly/mash_orkut
Biggest social network in Brazil and India

Different social networks as different nations. What is actually happening here, I think, very similar. Bumping into pre-existing cultural barriers.
With Orkut - expand to fill - different feel.
LiveJournal in America - large, teen golf? feel.

- Tummeling
http://tummelvision.tv
Not an English word for this. The person who catalyzes conversation.
Who makes it non-adversarial.
Geisha.
Americans thought I meant hooker.

\"WebKit is a layout engine designed to allow web browsers to render web pages. The WebKit engine provides a set of classes to display web content in windows, and implements browser features such as following links when clicked by the user, managing a back-forward list, and managing a history of pages recently visited.
WebKit was originally created for Apple's Safari; used in Google's Chrome Browser.\"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WebKit

\" HTML5 is a standard for structuring and presenting content on the World Wide Web. The new standard incorporates features like video playback and drag-and-drop that have been previously dependent on third-party browser plug-inssuch as Adobe Flash, Microsoft Silverlight, and Google Gears.\"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HTML5

\"XFN 1.1 introduced the \"me\" rel value which is used to indicate profile equivalence and for identity-consolidation.\"
http://microformats.org/wiki/rel-me

Q: How can we make the time people spend on social sites more preductive?
A: It's part of the challenge. It's better that people are updating their facebook profile and half listening.. More information is worse argument keeps coming around but we keep finding ways to help it. Email has its own challenges and problem. My sense is that the better employers are those that are paying attention to the outside world. Blanket firewall to these sites are a mistake. 

Q: I'm a skeptic of oxytocin. I would like to see more research
A: The reason people are spending hours a day on these sites is because people are feeling real connections there. BLOGher (http://www.blogher.com/conferences), get females together to talk about problems. I went to first one of those, amazing emotiona
l experienced it. Giggling, standing around. To say you can't build an emotional connection there I think is wrong. 

Q: How much will this allow us to create a financial identity on the web? Sharing information with vendors?
A: There are many sites designed around this. I think we are going to see more of this. Funding in silicon valley is a socially mediated area - it isn't systemitized. 

Salim:
For the first time in history, you can get to know someone without even meeting them.
[JG: my daughter, at school in London, met and married a guy from Pakistan - over Skype]
There are three ways to exchange information: 
1/ messaging (email, postage), 
2/ request response (can i have your business card, search engine, A->B, B->A), 
3/ subscribe (one question, many answers, when are you free?, financial industry) These are archetypal and exist in all levels of computers. 

What we've seen over 20 years on computers is that these patterns have layered themselves on the internet. 1990's, request response developed (web pages). Took 10 years to implement. Now we are at the latter part of the third stage, RSS. Tell Twitter to tell you whenever your friends do anything...

Next layer is the sensor layer, the internet of things... Multiple sensory devices publishing more and more information onto the web - the nervous system for the world. Search is like the memory. 

Remember that information flow in team projects will follow these patterns.

=============== DURING-presentation notes

Can't stand the colors of Etherpad? Turn them off with Pad Options. 
(Note: this changes the color for EVERYONE.)

Color card definitions:
Green - Agree
Red - Disagree
Yellow - Slow down (content) / I don't understand
Grey - Speed up we know this stuff / Move on to another topic

hands moving apart (sideways) - speak slower, speak more clearly

Link to backchan.nl for questions:
http://singularity.backchan.nl/meetings/view/152 First speaker
http://singularity.backchan.nl/meetings/view/153 Second speaker
http://singularity.backchan.nl/meetings/view/154 Third speaker

GSP10 Book List:
http://bit.ly/GSP10BookList

=============== POST-presentation notes

Instant Evaluation:
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Pads are ready for the afternoon Team Project sessions:
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul9-Team-Meeting
http://su-etherpad.com/tpfood-Jul9-Team-Meeting
http://su-etherpad.com/tpspace-Jul9-Team-Meeting
http://su-etherpad.com/tpupcycle-Jul9-Team-Meeting
http://su-etherpad.com/tpwater-Jul9-Team-Meeting

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul16-NT-afternoon
"7/16/2010 
Friday 
2:30 - 5:30 pm 
NT Session: Applications of Nanofactories 
Merkle
Slides: http://bit.ly/cU9TXY
Videos at: http://bit.ly/dBceUV

2:37 Recitations from Lord of the Rings.
Do we have any other requests from the audience.
A bit of housekeeping: a molecular modelling workshop.
In order to do the workshop, we plan to load some software -
HyperChem
onto everybody's laptop.
Demo will be good from Monday until Aug 13.
For Windows is 243MB. For Mac similarly large.
We've got a copy of the Windows version.
If you want, download either the Windows or Mac version from their website.
When you get it, install it. You'll have to run it.
It will want a license. Give it a fake one.
After awhile it will give you a lock in code or something.
Write that down.
Send an e-mail to hypercube.
They actually respond slowly.
Then when you get it ... load into HyperChem 
Don't wait until day or two before workshop and it will not work.
Did this last year and that's what happened.
Go ahead and do it at some convenient time.
A week or two before the workshop.
You can play with the software.

....
Also models of bearings, gears.
IBM site visit coming up.
You have already made that choice.
8:00 am It is worthwhile.
last year the folks who went loved it.
IBM site visit will be great.
We'll be talking about the applications and the purpose, mostly an open lecture, interaction format.
Purpose is to convey to you, by going through examples, the impact this technology is going to have in a huge number of fields.

Normally when people say \"HUGE\" they mean a small change.
Totality of impact.
Words fail me.
Words do not work.
All words used. They just don't work.
You'll see, as we go through them, the kinds of impact this technology is going to have.
You'll say, \"Do you mean X?\" And I'll say, \"YES, I do mean X.\"

- Impact
The impact of a new mfg tech depends on what you make.

Molecular nanotechnology
Applications of nanofactories
Impact

- Computers
Medicine
Space
Environment
Agriculture
Computers
Computer chips have a thin (a few microns on top of ~1,000 microns) layer of active computing elements \u2013 the rest is just support
Cost for this thin active layer is well over $1,000,000 / kg

- Computers
*A one kilogram molecular computer with ~10^18 logic elements might cost a few dollars.
*It could operate at 1 gigahertz and dissipate ~3,000,000 watts (using irreversible logic) or much less (a few watts) using reversible logic.
*10^27 logic operations per second is roughly the brain power of 10^11 humans.
If you reduce energy consumption - see fundamental limits of computation - you can drop 3 orders of magnitude. A few kW in a few kg. You can probably do that. Yeah, it will be running hot. Probably get that much computational power.

To get the flavor of that - roughly 10^11 humans, ballpark, hardware.
How many on planet today, 10^10. Ballpark, we're talking 10x the human population in one computer. 

I'm not an expert in AI. Things are getting better. We're going to do all kinds of interesting things. Oh, and don't forget that this is a few kW of power. How much will we have -- a whole bunch.
Raw computational power is going to be large. Very large. You can get larger numbers by looking at the amount of power that is going to be available.
If we dedicate some chunk of power to computers, then we will have large amounts of power, multiple orders of magnitude greater than the entire human species today. Interesting.

- Medicine
Respirocytes

Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology: 
A Mechanical Artificial Red Cell
Artificial Cells, Blood Substitutes, and Immobil. Biotech. 26(1998):411-430, by Robert Freitas

Scenario: Call doctor, \"My heart has stopped.\"

- [Animation of artificial blood cells]
Maybe a micon in diameter. Float around in bloodstream. They release Oxygen. Control of release. Image of what an artificial red blood cell would look like.

- Power
How would you power one?

H in one side. O in the other.
Membrane allows protons through.

Glucose fuel cell would be very useful. Hard to make a good Proton Exchange Membrane. Would block electrons, pass ions.

Already building today.

- Glucose/oxygen fuel cell
C6H12O6 + 6O2 --> 6CO2 + 6H2O + energy
PEM (Proton Exchange Membrane)
Passes protons but not electrons
Nanotechnology will enable manufacture of PEM\u2019s a few nanometers thick with highly selective proton pores
And catalysts

Neutrophil Chases and Eats a Staphylococcus aureus Bacterium
(from 16mm movie by David Rogers, Vanderbilt University, in the 1950s)

- Medicine - microbivores
Neutrophil Chases and Eats a Staphylococcus aureus Bacterium
(from 16mm movie by David Rogers, Vanderbilt University, in the 1950s)

- 
Robert A. Freitas Jr., \u201cMicrobivores: Artificial Mechanical Phagocytes using Digest and Discharge Protocol,\u201d March 2001; http://www.rfreitas.com/Nano/Microbivores.htm

Sweeps in bacteria. Chops it up and poops it out.

So these devices would be able to repond, very rapidly, very effectively - even infection beyond where current methods could treat it.

Output would be harmless.
Normally a white blood.

Q: Would viruses be too small?

So long as virus can be identified.

Q: How can it get pathogen not blood cell.

This one would be specific to a pathogen.
Or, have programable binding sites.

Q: Dialysis - outside the body.

Yes. Could treat blood outside body.

Q: Application to targeting tumor?

Yes. if you can identify. 

Not yet had as much success as you'd like.
If cell has antigen - selectively disrupt them.
Utilize product.

Q: Would it not get attacked by the body?

If not designed correctly, yes.

Might have to do something careful.

If you do it right, you should be ok.

- Medicine - chromallocytes
Assumes there is some navigaton.

Go to cell at that position. 

The Ideal Gene Delivery Vector: Chromallocytes, Cell Repair Nanorobots for Chromosome Replacement Therapy
J. Evol. Technol. 16(June 2007):1-97; http://jetpress.org/v16/freitas.pdf
by Robert A. Freitas Jr.

Everybody would like to have this technology in 50 years?

How many would like to be alive at 200 years old with high quality of life?
Seems to be a disjunction between what is expected and what is wanted.

- A revolution in medicine

Today, loss of cell function results in cellular deterioration:
function must be preserved
( the fundamental medical imperative today )

With future cell repair systems, passive structures can be repaired. Cell function can be restored provided cell structure can be inferred:
structure must be preserved

Today, cells repair themselves.
If it is no longer functional, than it cannot repair itself.
It is on a downward spirial.
If you can repair structures, then you can restore a cell so long as the structure is still there.

- Medical research
Future descendants of SPMs could rapidly scan the surface of cryofixed tissue with molecular precision

*Electrostatic
*Van der Waals
*Conductivity
*Many others

Very small scanning probe microscopes will be able to explore tissue.

- Surface scan
\"freeze fracture\"

A \u201csticky\u201d probe could remove individual surface molecules
*Carbene
*Boron
*Metals
*etc.

- Cryonics

From 98.6 degrees F, down to -320 degrees F. Revive decades later.

http://www.alcor.org/cryonics/cryonics0804.pdf

- Frozen Kidney and Vitrified Kidney.
Water tends to form ice. So you want to avoid formation of ice.
In vitrification, you introduce ice blockers and cryoprotection.
You cool and do not form ice.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass_transition

- Cryopreservation

Cryobiologists are often asked how long cells can remain viable at -196 degrees C, the temperature of boiling liquid nitrogen (which is the usual cryogenic fluid). The answer is clear \u2014 more than 1000 years.

Peter Mazur
Stopping Biological Time: the Freezing of Living Cells. Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 541: 514-531, 1988.

- Restoring health
This is what digital restoration can do:
Nanomedicine will let us digitally restore you

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Do_not_resuscitate

- The choice
Do you want to join
the control group
or
the experimental group?

When phrased like this, you get, \"Oh, when you put it that way ...\"

-Space
Big impact by simply reducing the cost and the strength to weight ratio.

- Space
How big an impact can we have.

*Launch vehicle structural mass could be reduced by about a factor of 50
*Cost per pound for that structural mass can be under a dollar
*Which will reduce the cost to low earth orbit by a factor of better than 1,000
http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/
NASAapplications.html

- Space
Other thing, if you want to put something into space -
the weight per unit function -
say, a computer, but that computer is now lighter
with lighter, more precise materials,
I can reduce the mass that goes into orbit.
*Light weight computers and sensors will reduce total payload mass for the same functionality
*Recycling of waste will reduce payload mass, particularly for long flights and permanent facilities (space stations, colonies)

- Space
*SSTO (Single Stage To Orbit) vehicle
*3,000 kg total mass (including fuel)
*60 kilogram structural mass
*500 kg for four passengers with luggage, air, seating, etc.
*Liquid oxygen, hydrogen
*Cost: a few thousand dollars
K. Eric Drexler, Journal of the British Interplanetary Society,
V 45, No 10, pp 401-405 (1992).
Molecular manufacturing for space systems: an overview

If you run through the numbers, you find SSTO - 3K kg including the fuel with 60 kg structural mass. Delightful numbers with molecular nanotechnology. 4 passengers with luggage. A VW bus. Runs on liquid O and H.

Everybody has access.
Everybody can go there.
You have fun.

- The rocket equation
Has Dan Barry been discussing this?
Exhaust velocity is big thing. You want this higher.
Way you get more exhaust velocity - problem with chemical energy is it is awful, pathetic. First thing - get energy from sun - solar electric ion drive.
Soak up energy from the sun. You can get as high a velocity as you want, just soak up more sun.
With molecular mfg technology, you can have really thin solar cells.
Excuse me, he is using aluminum reflectors.

delta V = v sub e ln (M sub i/M sub f)

Where
delta V is the change in rocket velocity
v sub e is the velocity of the exhaust gases
M sub i is the rockets initial mass
M sub f is the rockets final mass
(Tsiolkovsky, The Investigation of Outer Space by Means of Reaction Apparatus, 1903)

- Space
*Solar electric ion drive
*Thin (tens of nm) aluminum reflectors concentrate light
*Arrays of small ion thrusters
*250,000 m/s exhaust velocity
*pretty respectable!
*Acceleration of 0.8 m/s2
*Earth\u2019s gravity is ~9.8 m/s2
*Tour the solar system in a few months

K. Eric Drexler, Journal of the British Interplanetary Society,
V 45, No 10, pp 401-405 (1992).
Molecular manufacturing for space systems: an overview

A one-two punch. You've now got access to the solar system at a reasonable cost. Whoa. Space is available. All of this depends on molecular mfg -that looks interesting. Space is opened up.
And do complete recycling.
Go there. Hang out and have fun.

- Space
Project Orion
Really neat
Answer to the obvious question.
I want to use nuclear power for my rocket.
How do I do it in a simple way.
You know those 1950s movies with the big roomy rockets.
Storage area. Ladder.
Bunks for everybody.
HUGE.
Giant.
With project Orion you can do it.
For fuel, you had a bunch of atom bombs. 100, 1000. 
What they called a push shield and some really big springs.
Bomb would blow up. Absorb explosion. Then throw another bomb out.
That's how it would work.
People were building these in the 1950s. Use it for nuclear powered flight.
Lot of energy in an atom bomb. 

- [ video 15MB http://bit.ly/b2laeb ] Note: this and other NT videos available at http://bit.ly/dBceUV

Nuclear test ban treaty was hard on this project.
Project Daedalus (British Interplanetary Society) used exploding fusion pellets in their 1978 study.

Q: About 100 articles on interstellar space travel. 
Modify Orion with a single explosion. Go 2 miles down. Set off bigger bomb. Create a nuclear cannon.

Could have been done in 1950s.

- Space Elevators
Large amounts of very light strong materials.
On Earth. Cable would hang there. Elevator would come. You step on. Press UP. It would go up. It would continue to go up. The surface of the Earth would fall away. Sky above would become darker. You'd become lighter and lighter. You'd reach Geosynchronous orbit and be weightless.

Cable is in tension.

Also beanstalks, space bridges, space lifts, space ladders, skyhooks, orbital towers, and orbital elevators. 

First described in 1895 by K.E. Tsiolkovsky in Speculations about Earth and Sky and on Vesta.

Q: If a lot of mass was moving up and down, effects?

If you go up and down, OK, but if you keep going, you are plastered against ceiling. At the end of the cable, you are hanging on for dear life and, if you have timed it right, you let go and go flying off to Mars, or wherever.

A charming device.

- Space Elevators
You really need strong materials to make this work.

Ribbon taper ratio versus specific strength.
Assumes a lifter mass of 1,000 kg and a safety factor of 2.

Cross sectional ratio - 
Diamond is somewhere between 30 and 40 MPa m^3/kg
This thing is exponential.
Your taper wafer goes through the roof.
Steel doesn't work.
Probably need something remarkably well structured.
This will really be pushing your materials right to the limit.
Need something to deal with inevitable radiation hits.
Start to have failures, dislocations, why don't they take whole thing out.
Need some mechanisms.
Idea has caught on.
Next one in August 13 at Microsoft conf center in Seattle.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator
http://spaceelevatorconference.org/default.aspx

Airplanes
Terrorists

- Space Pier
Hasn't been discussed as much.
A building just above atmosphere.
Linear induction motor - and you are accelerated up to speed and you are in orbit.
Lot less expensive than elevator.
http://discuss.foresight.org/~josh/tower/tower.html

Build a structure 100 kilometers tall and 300 kilometers long. Put a linear induction (or other electromagnetic) motor along the top. An elevator goes straight up 100 kilometers to the starting end. Payloads are then accelerated horizontally into orbit with an acceleration of only 10 G's (which appropriately cushioned humans can stand for the 80 seconds required).
Josh Hall

- Solar Sails
Rocket equation is a real downer.
Limits performance to exhaust velocity.
Terrible.
Solar sail is nice because you are no longer carrying your fuel and reaction mass.
Bounce light off a sail.
Make big sail. Make honking big laser.
How big?
A little fuzzy.
But if you have a replicating base.
Go into asteroid base.
Soak up solar output.
Point the laser at your solar sail. Now powering your solar sail at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpha_Centauri

- Ultimate recycling
*Sealed worlds
*Nanotechnology will enable total recycling in even a small sealed colony in space.

- O'Neill colonies
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerard_K._O'Neill
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space
I'd like one with half spin so I'd be half as heavy.
You can go hang gliding down the middle of these things ...
You can convert available raw materials into what you want.

- Dyson Spheres

Enclose your sun.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freeman_Dyson

- Max population of solar system
*Solar output is ~3.8 x 1026 W
*Humans use ~100 W 
*Throwing in a factor of ten margin implies
The solar system could support ~3.8 x 10^23 people

About half a mole of people.
That considers the limiting factors.
People as we currently understand them.

Examination of Earth's population - historically.
Each author, over multiple centuries, concluded Earth could support about twice the current population.
Then one author proposed limit - somewhat higher.
Earth is a sphere.
If we assume that cooling equipment can operate at cherry red temperature, the maximum carrying capacity of the Earth is that level that would cause the Earth to glow cherry red. 10^18 or something. A reasonable limit.

- Fermi\u2019s paradox: [ skipped ]

Interstellar flight is possible, so
where are all the space aliens?

- Human impact on the environment
Population of earth
*Living standards
*Technology
*Environment

- Environment
Greenhouse/hydroponic agriculture
*10x increase in yield per acre
*Looks like it is in the cards. 
*10x reduction in habitat destruction
*Known methods (nutrients, CO2, temp, humidity, pests, weather)
*Plant heaven
*Better implementation at lower cost

- A higher standard of living and
a smaller environmental footprint

- Feeding people
*Today, one American uses ~one hectare (10,000 square meters) of farmland

*One person needs ~10 megajoules/day
*That\u2019s less than the sunlight on a one square meter roof mounted solar panel
*Four orders of magnitude improvement is possible in principle
*Synthetic nutritious food
Simply provide nutrious food - that everyone recognizes is good and acceptable.

- Solar power
*Sunshine provides ~10,000 times total world power usage.
*This is a shifting number.
*Molecular manufacturing will let us make efficient, rugged low cost solar cells and energy storage.
*Another area where we will find a shift. People working on this already. Other technologies may make this happen first, but molecular technology will keep the momentum moving forward.
*Use of coal, oil and nuclear fuels could be largely eliminated.
*If they create issues, we will just migrate away from them to something which doesn't create problems. But, at some point, we are going to have more alternatives we can use and no longer be limited.

- Atmospheric CO2
A big one. Right now we have a problem. People are annoyed by the amount of CO2. A lot going into the atmosphere. A variety of things in the atmosphere it would be good to be able to adjust.
*CO2 emissions are similar in magnitude to steel, concrete, wood and plastic usage
*Structural materials could be replaced with hydrocarbons (plastic, variants of diamond, graphite)
*Structural hydrocarbons sequester carbon
*See also Robert Freitas, \"Diamond Trees (Tropostats): A Molecular Manufacturing-Based System for Compositional Atmospheric Homeostasis,\" IMM Report 43, 10 February 2010; http://www.imm.org/Reports/rep043.pdf

- Remediation
Toxic sludge
is made
from atoms!
You can deal with the rather disgusting messes we have by rearranging the atoms.
So major issue becomes, what do you like?
Increasingly a shift from what is possible to which option do we prefer?
More decisions to make.

- Nano talks
\x3cField> is critically dependent on \x3cproducts>.
\x3cProducts> are made from atoms.
Nanotechnology will let us make \x3cproducts> that are lighter, stronger, smarter, cheaper, cleaner and just better.
This will have a huge impact on \x3cfield>, for example, we could even make \x3cproducts> that are \x3castonishing parameter> and cost only \x3cremarkably little>!

Finally, I am going to reveal the secret to giving a nano technology talk in any field.
[laughter]
4:44

Everson: How nanotech working with waste/recycling?

Basically the observation is that waste is atoms arranged in the wrong way.
Put it into a system that will digest it. A digestion system that will take molecular structures, 
with a high enough level of energy, it will look remarkably like digestion.
Throw it into a stomach.
Even isotopic separation becomes feasible.
Separate out the radioactive part rather than contaminating everything in sight.

Periodic table consists of a relatively few elements.

Q: Steve Cronin: How often are the nano claims true?

This is true remarkably often. Particularly where there is a device.

Q: Nano and biotech merge?
Yes.
Interesting question whether biotech can stretch to make diamond.
At the moment they are separate.
Whether they stay separate will be interesting to watch.

JG:Macro objects? Put \"Construction\" in as the \x3cfield>.

Yes. 
Tanks, aircraft carriers, skyscrapers. Things so big you start to have gravitational effects worth worrying about.

Q: Genetics?

Will happen more rapidly.
NNI dropped funding for MMT.

Q: Respirocyte MEMS version. Have things, small robots with technology we have now. FDA approval needed. Stick in animals now.
Bio, emerging nano. DNA to position carbon nanotubes at IBM.
Position 10 micron - 20 micron gold.
Proteins can become harder, like bone.
Ways to get it come to you.

Manuel: Cost of equipment to build a nano factory? Cost?

Good question. Depends on which approach is going to work out.
If we follow a particular path, it depends on what that path is.

Website: Nanofactory collaboration
http://www.molecularassembler.com/Nanofactory/

End of talk
Respirocyte
Net reaction:
C6H12O6 + 6O2 --> 6CO2 + 6H2O + energy
Two half reactions:
C6H12O6 + 6H2O --> 6CO2 + 24H+ + 24e- 
24H+ + 24e- + 6O2 --> 12H2O + energy

\"But if we now imagine bodies to be projected in the directions of lines parallel to the horizon from greater heights, as of 5, 10, 100, 1000, or more miles, ... those bodies, according to their different velocity, and the different force of gravity in different heights, will describe arcs either concentric with the earth, or variously eccentric, and go on revolving through the heavens in those orbits just as the planets do in their orbits.\" 
--Isaac Newton (1686)

Although several aspects of synaptic structure appear to change with experience, the most consistent potential substrate for memory storage during behavioral modification is an alteration in the number and/or pattern of synaptic connections.

The anatomy of a memory: convergence of results across a diversity of tests
William T. Greenough and Craig H. Bailey, Trends in Neuroscience, 1988, Vol. 11, No. 4, pages 142-147.

NT Session: Applications of Nanofactories 
Merkle
Slides: http://bit.ly/cU9TXY
Videos at: http://bit.ly/dBceUV

=============== POST-presentation notes

Instant Evaluation:
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Ignite specifications:
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"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul6-BB
"7/6/2010 
Tuesday 
2:30 pm
BB Session : Synthetic Bio & DIYbio Show and Tell 

Speakers on this pad:

Eri Gentry
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0ByuGXnC_X6-QNGU2ZGM0NDgtOWIzMy00ZTI3LWI4ZjgtMWQxYzU3NmFiMjE1&hl=en
Audio: http://bit.ly/bkVWEx
Mac Cowell
Slides:
Audio: http://bit.ly/caLEN6

=============== PRE-presentation notes

Kathryn will review later looking for any [ref] markers--She and TFs will fill these in with references, but all are welcome (encouraged) to add references / put in as many details as available.

New slide marker in Etherpad starting today:
- 
at the left margin, the hyphen above indicates a new slide.

If someone wants to put in the TITLE of the slide, like this
- Example Title
that would be even better.

Suggestions for etherpad contributor signals during talks:
.
A period at the left margin means this contributor is taking a break
=
An equals sign at the left margin means this contributor is ready to capture the next words
(their first keystroke would be a backspace)

PRIOR NCS pads: 
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun29-NCS-CL1
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun29-NCS-CL3

=============== End of PRE-presentation notes

DIY Bio
http://diybio.org/
Biocurious
http://biocurious.com/
OpenPCR
http://openpcr.org/

Mac: DIYBio was founded in 2002.
Lot of people interested in biotechnology.
They hear you can program life, get really interested in that.
Huge, huge hockey stick.
Small group who have had training on DNA, using microscope.
Range of skills with second group.
Very small elite group - PhD in biology.Blurry boundary - making new things.
How do I build myself one of these pieces of equipment.
They are innovating.
Not to start biotech company in the traditional sense, but to help newly interested in biology folks.
Perfect storm, really easy and dangerous.
\"High School student brewing influenza in bathtub: Will he kill us all?\" 

So, it has a lot of press. Sexy and easy to spin as being dangerous.
Two things:
Democratization is important. 
Trick with vodka, soap, shot glass - can isolate theoretically, chemically with spit.
Do that right in front of them.
Half of people freak out \"there is DNA in there!\"
Culturally we have a disconnect.
Ivory tower of science and rest of society.

First thing, DIYbio will help change the culture.

Second, market for new kind of tools not aimed at science, but tinkering and play.
Tacit knowledge, not between lines of a protocol.
Fun. Not necessarily good at discovery, but good at play.
The way science is taught, there is no need for those tools.
But the new community demands it.

\"Lo-Fi\". Phrase - low cost, rough analog.
Versus really precise robots running around.
From safety/security - be open/transparent.
Six kinds:
Hard core biohackers
Entrepreneurs
Artists/
Educations
Journalists
Policy Makers
-
Capabilities:
94% talkers
Tiny percentage can innovate.
-
DIY Bio
People want to play
-
Why?
Science is not working so well culturally.
They are afraid of DNA.
Remove hype/elitist mentality.
Disruptive innovation - cheaper, easier to use, actually better than existing tools.
-
Freeman Dyson
So long as biotech is faceless, people will be uncomfortable with it.
-
W. Brian Arthur
The Nature of Technology
-
-
Why now?
Lab-as-a-Service
Lab will send you back copies of DNA
Synthetic Biology tools
Three kinds
life from scratch
mods
building from modules - ability to create complex systems gets cheaper
DIY equipment & techniques
help you play.
Like first blinky LED for electronics. Things don't exist for biology.

-
Conventional kit.
Biorad - E. Coli kit. $110
Only available to academics
-
DNA Explorer $80
-
bioweathermaps
Most meat different species than you thought it was
Swap, mail it back.
1,000 different species.
- culturing bioluminescent marine microbes
Microbes grow on squid.
Grow more yourself http://bit.ly/diybio-squid
- Rapid
- algae photobioreactor $50.
Triangular system and algae go from a few grams to filling the whole thing.

- Tito's Gel Box. $499
- $100 2-axis microscope
Hackteria [ref]
Amazed stupefaction.
Hack a webcam, turn it into a cheap microscope.
Made version with servos.
Went to tech shop - \"I'll just print it\" takes 5 hours (what you thought would take 10 min)

- slide with scotch tape
- worms
Tito: Here last week. You have a makerbot. That is a really powerful technology.
Same spirit that got me into biology.
Brown.
Biomedical engineering.
Artificial limbs and stuff.
Synthetic biology - detect lead in a water sample and then glow.
Something to think about.
Then I graduated. 
Once I got out and got real job with Accenture and EBay.
couldn't do biotech.
Or something I want to print (an iPhone case)
Or cells that detect lead and glow,
so that's when I got started on DIY. 
DNA - looking at it. Sushi restaurant - does fish you are given match menu.
Engineering DNA - glowing cells. Take what nature has or invent new stuff.
I wanted to do both.
Anyone do gel http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrophoresis.
For pronunciation: http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/electrophoresis

Pearl Gel Box
http://www.pearlbiotech.com/

Fundamental part of your work if you want to look at or engineer DNA.
You can build it - I will demonstrate.
Device like this you can build yourself.

Mac: Thanks buddy.
Alright.
Other thing to show you real quick: microbial fuel cell (http://www.microbialfuelcell.org/www/). Just scoop up soil, put it into one of these guys, wait 5 days and it generates 5 microAmps of current. You can measure that.
Biggest is underwater.

Live cockroaches demo. Analog electronics. Neuroscience PhD.
SpikerBox $120 neuron recorder.
You can measure action potentials on cockroach leg.
Put a hair in a groove of a record - was able to listen to a song.

-
LavaAmp (http://www.lava-amp.com/) different from other PCR- normally you keep liquid in a single place.
Quick show of OpenPCR (http://openpcr.org/)
Normal PCR machines cost, what, $3-10,000.

This will be a kit for $400.

Josh: Lot of biotech people here.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PCR

For those who don't know, PCR copies/amplifies DNA. Useful for a lot of lab applications.
For many operations, narrow to DNA of interest. Clone it, whatever downstream applications are.
Will build about 1 billion times the DNA I started with.
I'll turn on this OpenPCR. 16 well. 
Designed for hobbyists.
Based on Arduino. Has a heat sink in here. Peltier coding
Later won Nobel Prize for process.
Polymerases - 
Cycle between 62 and 95 degrees C.
Each cycle doubles amount of DNA.
Lid - on higher end units, greatly simplifies process and makes it more reliable.

Mac: Sweet. Alright.
Eric: What is PCR?

Mac: 
- what's happened?
Lots
- who invents
Where is it going.
I consider Arduino a toy.
Not the solution a professional would use. 
You don't program it in assembly. Designed for non-experts.
Tinkering is what they wanted to enable.
Tinkering is what Arduino was designed to enable.
Until we have tinkering toys, it will be hard for people to get into it.
Because designed for amateurs, support tinkering implicitly.

Two paths:
refactor
invent something new

: Hand held potentialstat - drive electrochemical bio sensors. Like things diabetics use.
We use them to detect DNA or proteins.

Sarah Jane: I'm a collaborator and adjunct at the School of Anatomy & Human Biology, Uni of Western Australia home to SymbioticA: the Center for Excellence in Biological Arts. http://www.symbiotica.uwa.edu.au What has been the effect of the Steve Kurtz Critical Arts Ensemble Case? [http://www.caedefensefund.org/faq.html] 
[Critical Art Ensemble: Performance and installation art collective exploring the intersections of art, technology, radical politics and critical theory. www.critical-art.net/ ]

Mac: Caused fear and concern.
FBI had loaded gun. Bring terrorist to 
Artist doing fungal work.
He spent 3years to get out.
A lot have been afraid and mis-trustful. Because of transparency.
Talk about capabilities, talk to FBI.
I was in Switzerland to talk about biosecurity and biosafety.
Interacting with authorities.
Convince them not much to worry about.

Sarah: What is the implication for Individuals?
Mac: That's where organizations come in.

Whole buying thing for biotech - prices require accounts, ask for quote, lots of rules.
Then rules say will only ship to academic institution or actual biotech company.
Ordering stuff to do PCR.
Carolina Biosciences - high school level kits.

1983 Patents expired. PCR is something you can do, you can sell, you can inspire other people to do.

For lavaAmp project, they patented their design. Overall, for legal resources, come together as groups. Have a forum. 

Chiara: Don't you think things are kind of risky, need regulation?

Safety in biotech is structured around institutions.
There is no framework for individual besides \"NO\"

Chiara: Companies and universities have labs. If in safety environment, you don't spread things around. I'd be scared if you don't know what you are doing.

That's why getting together in space.

Sarah: CSI kits for children to play with. You can get that kit in children's toy store. Learn to become a forensic expert. But if an artist had the same science, they would be under suspicion.

Glass tubes or something else, all seen as dangerous.

If interested in getting involved. www.Kickstarter.com

Raising a couple $1000. Smoking. Smelling lie smoke.
If interested, go to OpenPCR/kickstarter.

biocurious staring up now. Trying biocurious.org/kickstarter.

3:23 [applause]

Come back at 3:30. (Big hand on the 6).
Biocurious by-line
\"Experiment with your friends\"
Coming up: two halves - Business plan development and hands on.

3:40 Tito: Whether you like brussel sprouts is determined by one letter of your DNA.
Put gel in gel box.
Put DNA on one end.
Put electrical charge through it.
DNA is moved through gel.
bigger pieces move slower.
So you get lines of DNA.
Really useful for working with DNA.

So, why buid this?
In every molecular biology lab out there.
Equip whole generation with capability.
Pretty basic.

Q: How long does it take?

About an hour.

Q: What charge.
DNA is negatively charged.
If you push it the wrong way it goes out the buffer.

Davidad: What does it tell you?
The length of the DNA and nothing else.
Eric?: Break the DNA at markers.
Chiara: That line is 300 base pairs.

The bitter tasting experiment.
Chemical that cuts at a particular sequence.
Everyone gets either one band or two smaller bands.

Ever made stuff? This was an interesting adventure for me.
It is a plastic box - very easy. But it's not.
Look at this. If ever glued together. Model car. You get glue on your thumb and put it on the windshield.
So I wanted to build a kit that people could build.

DNA is clear, tiny. So how do you visiualize it. That's where this blue light and orange plastic come in. You stain the DNA with a chemical that reacts to blue light.

The light turns on when you plug in the power.

So this is the kind of result you get from your experiment.

You might say this was 6 different samples.
Low cost.
Other labs use UV lights. Requires sunscreen, etc. 
Blue lights are cheap and safe.

Q: White base?

So it doesn't hurt your eyes.

You need electrical current going across.
You don't actually need a lot.
You need a gelatin and DNA.
I've done it wtih a pan and gelatin from the store.
Something you can do in the kitchen.

Chiara: The electrodes go in between.
Mutagenesis - not completely safe.

You wear gloves when you do this stuff.

Connor: More current goes faster?

Yes, but resolution breaks down.

4:49
Eri Gentry, Founder, BioCurious: A hackerspace for biotech
\"Experiment with Friends\"
Granulocytes found in \"magic mouse\" found to not cause cancer - look for in humans, not sure where to find these sites yet. 

This is my proof of concept for a garage startup.
VC can look at it and say, \"this is good enough to be funded\"
Hackers/makers.
-
John sitting in lab looking for cure for cancer.
-
Guido who slept on couch.
LavaLamp - Place sample in plastic tube.
Three heated chambers.
Make it reform and copy.
Basically doing that time after time to make bazillions of copies.
Cuts time.
So Guido is now in Colorado, won an unreasonable scholarship.
Great experience in Venezuela.
They had to grow and extract horseradish peroxidase.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horseradish_peroxidase

Meetups Biocurious

Hacker Dojo here in Mountain View is where I've made friends.
Typical answer is \"let's start a company\"
Might be a new way of doing business.
Crowd sourcing
Microfinance
Next meetup on July 17th.
biology is technology (book) [ref]
how in the next 50 years biology will be what computers were to the last 50.
-
Here I am tearing a leg off a cockroach. The legs grow back.
Tim was a PhD. He was frustrated that you had to be 23 and a PhD to do this kind of science.
Lower barriers to entry to biotech.
No excuses. If there is a problem and you know how to solve it, you can do it.
The closet lab of engineer, clothes, tools and the rest.
Diagnosed herself with http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemochromatosis, a disease her father had.
- What happens when biotech gets in the hands of Makers?
People need problems to solve
They need resources
They need to get together to talk about this
- Webcam Microscope
Scaffo Garby - active in UK
- Pearl Biotech
- LavaAmp
- PCR 
we'll talk about this in case study.
Going for financing.
More advanced way of doing PCR.
- Homemade incubator
You can raise chicks in it.
Bought off the web.
- Homemade Clean Bench
If you need a clean environment, would typically cost $12,000.
Function? To keep particles out of the air.
I have allergies. Same as a HEPA filter.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HEPA

- Homemade Shaker
cost $45 to make, instead of an $8K
Do an instructables on it.
http://www.instructables.com/
Didn't want to communicate what they were doing to the public.

Silicon Valley is such a cool environment. I've seen such cool hacks.
Not much limitation except resource and education.
Josh is completely self taught. Probably doesn't like me talking up here because he is humble.
At Biocurious, we're going to have classes. Community aware people who can talk together.
-
These are all examples of people I have met.
People doing quantified self.
I get this reaction so often - \"I'm not a scientist, you can stop the conversation.\"
Meeting the right kind of people who embrace knowledge and want to share it.
Hackerspace will be like that.

We are looking for $30K. So far about 20% of the way there.
Tim O'Reilly said he would tweet it. We had 400% more traffic and 30% more donations, and even more today.
VC versus crowd funding.
There are ways to manipulate crowd funding.
Now you don't have to rely on the old model of business.
Looking at how you don't have to change your business to meet their ideals.
People can get financial support and build a community.
That is a different world.
-
We'll do the case study - OpenPCR launched 6 weeks before us.
They've raised $10K.
-
OpenScienceSummit.com
Jason deals with this every day.
Leaders in policy, science and education.
Berkeley iHouse July 29-31.
-
The End
biocurious.org/kickstarter

Now the new type of lending platform
Kiva
Profit sharing.
You get a zero interest loan.
Has not only talked to people he is going to a profounder project.
OpenPCR as the example.
Who can use it?
Should it be open source?
S

openPCR Case Study:
This was the tool that enables a lot of what we want to do.
Purchased things that weren't working properly on eBay
For ~6 weeks, a number of componens on his desk. At that point, only personal funding. Wnated to expand so that other people could use it.
Started Kickstarter program for $6000 to create a kit for people to be able to create their own kits...
At first there wasn't a case for openPCR - similar to SpiderBox not being able to find a box. Talked to the people on this group and they gave them the idea to use a wooden box. Don't need to reinvent the wheel!

16 well plate

What is the market for openPCR?
$512 pledge upfront gives you a kit..
Schools - highschool students in Bay Area are beginning to use these!
Forensics Departments
Online Dating - like the dating site which match someone with people who don't have the genetic diseases you have an other cruder things like attitude
Nutritionist/Dieticians
Doctors
DNA-Sequencing companies like 23andMe
Personal genomics market (this is large in Israel)

Should this be open source? Can you have a business around this?
Being open source, people can hack it

Funding?
If the price is dropping by an order of magnitude, there are many groups who would definitely buy this as compared to more expensive alternatives.

Q: Is it possible to ship this to Argentina?
A: Maybe if you ship it as something else

Andrew's Comment on open sourcing: Linux model router could put your own firmware on it. Despite not having all the options, it was bought a lot because there were so many more uses for it because you could play.

Profounder is interesting new platform launching this year.
Should be promising in crowdsourcing.

Eri: To start off talking about OpenPCR. I'm super excited about this.
One of the fundamental pieces you need.
I want to learn how to program the Arduino.
That is very powerful information.
Do something that is biotech related.
I'm going to hand the mic over to Josh.
How he got here with Tito.
And their super successful kickstarter project.

Josh: This is a project that really should exist.
Tito and i had been working together about a year.
This is really the tool that enables a lot of the stuff we wanted to do.
Tito had a recycler for $400.
We decided to go forward.
6-8 weeks, I had components on my desk.
Getting it to cycle.
Getting it to cycle accurately.
Put money into product.
Make it easy for others to assemble too.
Took hours to assemble.
Make it into a kit.
Optimize components.
Remove unnecessary components.
Produt running now. Has about 20 days left.
Met all kinds of people who want to use this.
Benefit other than just financially.

Eri: I've seen the components spread out.
Seen it come togther and work.
Trouble finding a case as well.
They gave me some great websites.
Made out of wood, \"That's biotech?\" Yeah.
Always happens by chance.
Lot of reinvention of wheel.

Back to case study.
Tell me what the market for something like this is.
Their friends? $500 pledge gets you a PCR.
Versus $10,000.
Has 16 well plate. Functions along same timeline.
Who could you see needing one of these?
School - create biotech programs in Bay Area high schools
Many adults want to learn about it as well
Police Departments - forensics
On-line dating?

There is actually an on-line dating site that looks at HLA.

Nutrionists. Quantified self crowd. Diets for other people.
Doctors prescribing morphrin.
23andMe.

What about other countries? Maybe redesign for personalized medicine.
Huge in Israel.

Emiliano: If you bring price down by order of magnitude, interesting in rest of world.

Eri: You are from Argentina. PCR here - issue shipping it there?

E: Just ship it as something else. Not a PCR.

Andrew: Model of router that I used to buy because it was cheap, but friends and I bought about 20 because you could re-program it. Someone will figure out how to hook your PCR up to a toaster and figure out how to make that useful. Open source can drive interest for things that are just low price.

Eri: Open source conflicts with the way things being done.
Patent? No.
IP? Not really. Just want to put this into people's hands.
Take that to backer. Not going to get support like a typical internet company.

Rosa: How much do you want to make?
Eri: No business plan now.
May be people who just want to do things to make money.
Is it important for them to keep IP private, or still have something they can live off of?
For OpenPCR, I 'm using this as an example.
No plan for this to be a business.
They've used kickstarter.
They can afford to redesign this.
Power source is ginormous (large).
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/ginormous [Yes, this is a real word.]

Maybe you don't need a real business.

Emiliano: If you want investment, you need to have a real business.
Chiara: If you are a non-profit, you still need to make money somehow.
Kind of limits what you can do.
If you are innovator, do you want your life to be around this one thing.
Maybe this is part of the learning curve for you.
Strong arguement until crowd sourcing becomes available, you had to have investors.
People you've never met giving you $500.
I don't know yet.

Davidad: Meta-business. Open hardware ideas, and essentially a manufacturing business. If you invented this, you don't want to laser and ship things.
[see quirky.com - http://www.quirky.com/]

Eri: Please e-mail me. eri@biocurious.org

Sasha: If run as a break even business, what are service layers that can go on top of this thing. Use OpenPCR to do more things. Gets them to purchase your unit to do what they need to do. 

Eri: Bringing your product to the open market, brings in people that you have never met. People who have worked on sailboats, done DNA analysis. Inspiring stories that have helped shape and inform.
I'd like to cover steps to bring to market:
Garage biotech - something you've made
What would you do to support this?
Would potentially quit your job if you could have -- what?
What are the real steps you would take to transition into a biohacking lifestyle?

Rosa: Find credible users.
Strongly depends on the user experience.
People who use this alot.
Spread the word.

Eri: Let your friends give you honest feedback.
After final design, several iterations, people are happy -- now what?

Andrew: What's it called when it is really successful but no one is behind it?
Exactly. Figure out how to produce a certain number at a certain scale.
Lot of inside-the-box lessons. Make it with the resources you have so you can continue to do the things you love.

Bryce: Stop calling it a hack.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hacker
\"
*Hacker (computer security) or cracker, who accesses a computer system by circumventing its security system
*Hacker (programmer subculture), who shares an anti-authoritarian approach to software development now associated with the free software movement
*Hacker (hobbyist), who makes innovative customizations or combinations of retail electronic and computer equipment\"

Eri: Hacker could be either dangerous -- or cool.
eri@biocurious.org
=====

DNA Dating Sites (warning: psuedo-scientific)
http://scientificmatch.com/
http://genepartner.com/

=============== DURING-presentation notes

Color card definitions:
Green - Agree
Red - Disagree
Yellow - Slow down (content) / I don't understand
Grey - Speed up we know this stuff / Move on to another topic

hands moving apart (sideways) - speak slower, speak more clearly

Link to backchan.nl for questions:
2:30pm\u20144:30pm Afternoon Session
http://singularity.backchan .nl/meetings/view/140

GSP10 Book List:
http://bit.ly/GSP10BookList

=============== POST-presentation notes

Instant Evaluation:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/a/singularityu.org/viewform?formkey=dGVzY3JzR3VFeTJjSElVcjM3REFpY0E6MQ

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul6-NCS
"7/6/2010 
Tuesday 
9:00 
NCS CL4 Theories and practice of Quantum Computing 
Geordie Rose

Speakers on this pad:

Geordie Rose
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaMzFjMjkwN2UtODllNy00NzE2LWIwNGItOGVjYjNjYTdkMDYw&sort=name&layout=list&pid=0B2Ij9HPeinaFODJjNjVlYTItNTlhMC00YzI0LWFlZDEtM2U3NTg3ODc5OTNj
Ted Selker 
Slides:https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaOGY5ODE5OTQtYzE1Zi00YzIzLWFiNjMtYzE2ZDgxMWZkZTU3&sort=name&layout=list&pid=0B2Ij9HPeinaFODJjNjVlYTItNTlhMC00YzI0LWFlZDEtM2U3NTg3ODc5OTNj&cindex=8

Andrew Minor - Nanomaterials
Slides:https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaOTBiYzEzNjQtMDVkMS00Y2E5LTljODctN2FhMDE1YTBhOGQx&hl=enhttps://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaOTBiYzEzNjQtMDVkMS00Y2E5LTljODctN2FhMDE1YTBhOGQx&hl=es 
=============== PRE-presentation notes

Kathryn will review later looking for any [ref] markers--She and TFs will fill these in with references, but all are welcome (encouraged) to add references / put in as many details as available.

New slide marker in Etherpad starting today:
- 
at the left margin, the hyphen above indicates a new slide.

If someone wants to put in the TITLE of the slide, like this
- Example Title
that would be even better.

Suggestions for etherpad contributor signals during talks:
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PRIOR NCS pads: 
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun29-NCS-CL1
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun29-NCS-CL3

Geordie Rose
http://dwavesys.com/
D-Wave systems are architected around an innovative processor that uses a computational model known as adiabatic quantum computing (AQC). 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adiabatic_circuit
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reversible_computing

\"Adiabatic Logic is the term given to low-power electronic circuits that implement
reversible logic. The termcomes fromthe fact that an adiabatic process is
one in which the total heat or energy in the system remains constant.\"
http://www.cs.caltech.edu/cbsss/finalreport/nanoscale_ind_gojman.pdf

Asynchronous Logic Automata
by David Allen Dalrymple
http://davidad.net/Dalrymple-Thesis.pdf
\"In addition, this model adapts much more easily to take advantage of adiabatic logic
design. For instance, when a cell is being used only to ferry tokens from one place
to another (e.g. an inverter, shown in Fig. 2-5), it can do so physically, instead of using
a traditional, charge-dumping CMOS stage.\" (pg 30)

=============== End of PRE-presentation notes

NCS CL4 Theories and practice of Quantum Computing 
Gordie Rose

9:08
Brad: Geordie's company is looking to commercially exploit quantum computing, with DWAVE.
Geordie: Have raised about $100 m and spent 10 years. Things are going to work.
Recurring theme.
\"Solving Hard Problems\"
- Quantum Computing Hardware
Eyes opened by research
At startup, you get focused on a small world.
At my world we use a substrate called a superconductor, using metal called Niobium
Kind of lost track of what else was happening in the world.
three important thingsShould be able to build large scale quantum computers with these approaches
- Today
You are likely to be extremely entrepreneurial.

two parts of today's talk:
1.hard problems vs standard approaches
2. quantum computing
-
So we often talk of \"not hard\" problems.
Anything you can do with your laptop is not a hard problem.
There are a lot of things you cannot do with your laptop.
- Humans are good problem solvers
Carl Sagan on YouTube makes you feel good to be human
- All living things
We have not given respect to the world around us.
Lots of things are good problem solvers.
Not typically \"intelligence\" but hard problems:
plants solved problem of turning solar power to energy over millions of years
Even though things don't seem intelligent the way we are, 
even ants do things.
-
Every thing in the universe is solving a hard computational problem just by existing.
Science = figuring out what problems things are solving
They solve the laws of physics.
The Apple is solving Newton's equations when it falls.
Rock, just sitting there, is doing exceptional things way beyond any computer we have ever built.
Nature is very mysterious still.
The way we look through science, even dust is doing immense amounts of computation.
-
What we know for sure is that if the ways we look at science are correct even a piece of dust is doing an enourmous amount of computation
-
Horizontal technologies. Computers can underlie a vast number of things.
Can't simulate physics of that rock.
-
Another Moore's Law out there - Jaguar http://www.nccs.gov/jaguar/
Folding at home [ref] This distributed thing is much faster
10 petaflops (1petaflop=10^15 floating point operations/second)
Kicks major ass!

-
Who cares if it is the size of a basketball court.
Better to think about how much power it takes
A light bulb is 100 watts. The way supercomputing is going, people want to build a system with 1000 Jaguars.
Energy use goes way up.
-
Zero processor innovation going on in high end computing.
All the proessors are available at the local store.
-
Richard Dawkins: The Ancestor's Tale
-
Processors are all one species. Cheapest, dirtiest cell phone to highest end ... all the same.
Under the hood, it is all silicon, junctions, same architecture.
- tsmc 
Lack of biodiversity is an issue.
Where are chips going to come from?
No choice.
Why? 
Complicated - FAB (fabrication)
TSMC - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation - http://www.tsmc.com/english/default.htm
If you can build the things you are designing, you are set.
If you can't, you won't go anywhere.
-
http:/www.top500.org
-
Problem I'm going to raise with this:
boat load of chips, maybe an Exoflop ... but not right tools for the job
Quote from guy who runs Jaguar.
-
Imagine you are a lady bug wandering on integrated chip. Very little you could imagine of what that thing does -- even though you are right next to it.
-
We encounter things that we are completely unequipped to deal with.
Bottom line, dirty little secret: we really have no idea what is going on under the hood.
We have no conception of something as simple as time.
Giant machines - types of problems they solve are things we understand:
predicting weather
nuclear fusion
-
What I'm going to do now is argue for a new approach to computing.
We're going to try to be the ladybug.
Absolutely clear that the wonder and machine around us is beyond our brains.
To think otherwise is just ridiculous.
-
If you want to do something computationally, how long does that take?
Brain simulation.
So often when this discussion is raised, something like this will come up
-
How long something takes is only one part.
Run time = number of operations required/number of operations per second
Number of operations per second is the part we change

NOPS is a hardware thing.
No mention of software
Only indirect measure 
-
How to make computing things more efficient
Prescriptions for solving problems.
How to get to NASA Ames, rent car
-
Why - central point - use example of factoring.
Factoring
Two prime numbers
Take product
Back in 1977, Scientific American, said, find which 2 numbers multiply to give number.
Someone did it in 8 months.
-
A better way to factor numbers was found.
In 1994, discovery of quadratic sieve. Do many, many less operations.
Old algorithm was drive to LA, then Palo Alto ...
New, skip trip to LA.
Interesting exercise. If you had best 1994 hardware with 1977 software VS 1977 hardware wtih 1994 software- old hardware wins with new software.
- What's a Quantum computer? - it changes the numerator in the runtime formula, changes the number of operations required rather than the number of operations per second. The focus is shifted from the speed of the processor to the algorithm needed to solve the problem.
Analog would be - someone finds Quad Sieve. Imagine you needed a Blue computer to run it.
Special type of computer can run these algorithms, but not on any currently available chips.
We have yet to be able to build a computer to run them.
-
What's a quantum algortihm - A prescription for solving a problem, where at least one step is impossible classically but possible using quantam mechanics
Something that can run quantum algorithm.
At least one step requires a quantum. Superposition required.
About 40 good ones, can send a link.
-

- Factoring: Shor
10^40 is giant. Vast reduction in number of operations.
If we wanted a quantum computer to factor numbers, $100 m and 10 years.
Exoflops, about 10 more years.
Quantum computers not at all like CMOS [ref]
They will run on wall plug power, regardless of scale.
Quan Computer can be much lower, 100 mHz clock rate.
But number of operations is staggeringly lower.
I think factoring is limited, not a social good.
Factoring is one of many.
You take a problem that you fundamentally can't crack

Separation proofs. Simply cannot do better than a quantum computer.
- It's really not rocket science
When you read popular science articles about quant comp, it sounds hard.
It's not.
Building large scale quant computer no harder than building a car.
Is it worth the investment?
Entrepreneurs have generally answered no. But they don't understand the return.
Human mind is not capable of totally comprehending what is going on any more.
- Good signs
Believe me or not.
Two key inflection points:
1. When doing something useful - point has been past. Best \"car detector\" every built.
Very interesting thing. 
2. Someone buys one
If you are going to do this exponential thing, you need money. Money is the fuel.
Real money comes from selling things, not investment.
Once people talk about government buying computers.
This field is going to take off. 
- Messages to take away
People think they have solved the world's problems. Then one thread comes loose.
Reasons why we should stop whacking each other over the head with sticks.

Next press release about wonderful science bringing quant computing closer. 
Like go cart speed up when you are trying to get to moon.
What is needed is 10 years and $100 m.
Ion traps most likely to succeed.
Why me? Somebody needs to take the plunge.
People in this audience could pull this off.
Highly recommend that you try.
9:43 [applause]
Brad: Some say it won't work. Why are they wrong.
G: Always will find naysayers.
Bulk of distribution - unsolved problems. That is consensus.
Brad: But what is their reason? Meaningful number of qubits.
G: Decoherence.

Superconducting Technology Assessment, National Security Agency Office of Corporate Assessments, 2005 (4 MB pdf)
\"GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT CRUCIAL
There is no foreseeable commercial demand for SC digital technology products sufficient to justify significant private industry investment in developing that technology. For this reason, government funding is crucial to this technology\u2019s development. Besides its use to NSA, SC will likely have applications for other government missions as well. Once it has been sufficiently developed, SC may also prove to have commercial applications.\"
http://www.nitrd.gov/pubs/nsa/sta.pdf

Erez: Money.
G: Matter of where to spend it.
Building high performance computers has momentum. 
Really a matter of resource allocation. Exo-scale or something you don't understand.

About number of qubits - bottlenecks are about processor architectures.
You could build one with 1000 qubits if you could build one with 5.
People know how to do the architecture things, but not the quantum computing things.
Very much at scale of lab experiments.

You need 20 engineers with 20 years of computing experience.

Solving discrete optimization problems. Sets of coupled binary numbers.
Find optimal setting of switches. Very hard.
Applied most fruitfully in machine learning.
The field where you teach the machine by example.
Cast learning as optimization, solve it on our chip.
From my perspective, short term win is machine learning.
Running \"bedrock\" [?] and those kinds of things.

Q:
G:We can run, get answers. That's not enough.
\"Yeah, but it might just be a classical thing.
a. need to build tests to prove the computer is working quantumly
b. people need to accept the tests

It is really about what happens when you build bigger systems.

QM allows you to do what classical computer can do but not vice versa. 

Remark (Carlos): \"QM allows you to do what classical computer can do but not vice versa\" - As far as I know, this is not accurate at all. Actually, one can simulate QM and therefore Quantum Computation in a classical computer. The problem is that, in order to do this, one would need to keep track of an exponential number of complex numbers on the 
number of qubits one is trying to simulate. So, it would be more accurate to say that the cost of simulating a quantum system using classical computation is prohibitively/exponentially high and, thus, unfeasible.

Remark (Erez):
I contacted Shai Machnes of the class of GSP-9. He is an Israeli physicist that specialize in Quantum Computing. Asking if the estimation for having QC in 10yr+100M$ is valid here is his response:
*A few thousands qubits - enough to simulate interesting quantum and solid-state physics - that sounds about right
*Hundred of thousands of qubits, enough to break codes - probably $1+B and 15 years
The Quantum community in general has a lot of problems with D-wave (The talker's approach. E.L.), their approach and their device.
It is actually not clear that their device does quantum computation. Not as far as I know.
At least I have not seen the papers and result to prove it (maybe I'm out of the loop, but I don't think so).
Using other techniques (linear ion traps), the current state-of-the-art is 14 qubits by the group of Rainer Blatt.
I think is most relevant is this \"Experimental Investigation of an Eight Qubit Unit Cell in a Superconducting Optimization Processor\"
Bottom line: a claim of a working 128 qubit device is unsubstantiated (and never made) by their scientific publications. I therefore conclude it is PR, wishful thinking (or they have made a huge huge breakthrough which is not reflected even in their publications of 2010 - but that is highly highly unlikely).

Simulated annealing (SA) is a generic probabilistic metaheuristic for the global optimization problem of applied mathematics, namely locating a good approximation to the global optimum of a given function in a large search space.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simulated_annealing

10:08 Brad: Break til 10:15

NCS CL5 Innovative Computer Interactions and Interfaces (Ted Selker) Tue, July 6, 10:15am \u2013 11:15am

10:18 Brad: Next speaker, Ted Selker at CMU NASA Ames campus.
Stanford
Ted also at MIT Media Lab - context aware computing group. Nubbin on Thinkpad.
Once we get exoflop - how will we interact with them.
Short of implanting them into our bodies.

10:20 Ted: Noticed a lot of people enjoying their computers.
Attractiveness of machines, taking us out of the moment is not what we want.
Want to be in the experience of the moment.
We made 30x improvement with vector optimization to show how things were \"thrashing\"
Been doing HCI - dwith vector optimization to show how things were \"thrashing\"
Been doing HCI - decided to help people.

- HCI (Human/Computer Interaction)
What is HCI?
Chip in iron can tell difference between child's and adult's hand.
Advisory things. Teach a person to fish, they can fish all the time.
ABS brakes in car don't help you to brake better - you make lots of mistakes.

I don't believe there is anything people do that isn't spiritual, by the way.

All the machines we make. We make them sleek. Button that does what you want.
We want control.
-
What is the field.
Techniques of direct maniupulation.
steering
multidimensional - car is an amazing interface. Phones.

Voice - 97% effective or 25% effective. IF it goes wrong, how wrong do things go.
\"Speech\" or \"Beach\"
Without context we are very bad at understanding language.
Ambiguity allows us to fit what people are saying into our way of thinking.
Missing in today's voice rec.

Things like voice reco, is a technique.
Technology is when it works.

output: screen, text - language of things people expect to see.
\"Room with a view\" World out the window, phone book, ... this was a GUI.
Select things with these viewboards.
Dan Rather said, \"I can't imagine anyone living there. So futuristic.\"
Your opter[?] where you focus when you are reading.

Physical output. Robots have been coming forever.
I went to Panasonic.
I designed the ThinkPad.
\"We can't put that thing in there because we have robots.\"
Went there and found they used jigs.
Kind of mistakes - brittling - and furthermore robot was a complicated device for the work flow. Understand why we want flexibility and programmability.

Weeeeeeee. Woooooo. Pck.???

Complexity 

Today's models of what to do.
You go up to door, door opens.
old ones were better.
Now they have a people sensor.
The model of leaving the grocery store is broken.
If person is standing there, they may not be leaving the building.
I love using a sensor for all it can do.

I want everyone to think about scenarios.
See why to give you the $100,000.

\"Well we;re so brilliant and wahtever\"
When I studied for performance and preference was found instead of performance, I didi not phraser the question right

Press got in smart car and press got in and \"blinker please\" was sounded when they left the car without using the blinker
Realized that interface shouldn't nag you and make you feel bad except maybe just to announce it's there at first

My problem is you can't base everything on looking in your rearview mirror.
You want to try the future not the past.
How do I know if that is good.
We have to find ways to get people to try it.

I'm known for making this pointy device used in every space flight.
I read a book - Stu Carden 1993 HCI - takes 1 and 3/4 seconds to move to mouse.
Better to put in the middle of the keyboard.
When you make a rate control device - rate control has too much gain. People overshoot.
A lot of what we did was watching while people used it for \"racecar runs\" - selecting icon after icon after icon.

In graphical interface, version \"awful and ugly\" but 30% faster.
Different sizes
semantically grouped
Identifiable icons - irregular placement
All of those things helped memory.
First 3D which improved over 2D performance.

If gray - see through interface was new.
Graphical interface took delicacy.

Memory loads.

Cell phones are just becoming amazing.
Course on Android product dev.
No one had touched it.
Sensor pack that robot makers would love:
Gyro
Compass
camera
In one click - download Eclipse.
Get UI libraries
and drivers
Program to get to sensors.
17 apps from 21 students. 5 products.
User Interface of the past was trying to get one sensor to work.
Today, it is context.

Shiny knobs and buttons don't impress anymore.
We have to understand, now that we have the finish, what to use the finish for.
Scenarios are exciting.
Happy to talk to you about how I can be helpful.
I care about environment, energy, ...

Lot of new scenarios we can create because people care about being together and interacting with each other.

Ref: http://www.cylab.cmu.edu/mobility/
-
Here is a cigarette I made.
you are the dating game.
Basicaly, helps you take a break.
It would be unhappy in your pocket.
Touch another one and it would be happy.
Give yourself rewards. All things cigarettes have done.

We use technology for defining who we are and how others see us.

\"Understanding Considerate Systems\"
-

People expect system to be deferent. 
We expect machines to act in a social way.
They will.
Today, they don't.
They might know where they are, but not how to interact with people.
\"Context Aware Computing Group\"
What I did is I made dozens of demos:
computers in beds, kitchens, bicycles
AI is learning, representationand reasoning.
Use those elements to make better interfaces.
-
Made car you have to pedal.
6 m people who will have 5x more accidents than you.
If they pedal while they drive, they don't fall asleep.

Postal truck that did neat things.
-
Intention
We want to understand people's intention.
That's what sensor are for.
Butterflies on the floor. Would paint a podium. Social commentary.
Would take you from demo to demo.
Would not use audio - pretty important for people to be able to dominate.
-
Had a chance to work with people with Alzheimers on PBS.org [ref]
Give them pictures of their life. More connedtions with more people.
Most successful was puzzle.
If you do nothing, puzzle is also solving itself.
It is just guiding you and it has a celebration.

An art historian is typically not an artist. What if we could take critical posture and turning it into creative posture. Kaliedoscope - hit the keyboard when they didn't like it.
-
A door.
What is that moment of choice when I go onto and off podium.
Organizational model. Everyone treated differently.
Task model. Let someone disturb someone who is working - a reasoning, not learning system.
-
Diane Sawyer asking about interaction.
Photo diode checking whether
staring intently
blinking
just looking around
-
Can run parties where people's intentions were recovered by these cameras.
That is techniques to technologies.
Eyes - try to see where looking - actually HOW they are looking.
Look at things for social reasons.
That overlay what you expect, with function.
I could take anyone walking into my lab and have them competently doing things.
I'm always looking for maxium implicit communication.

Good user interface is taking the toll out of the task
- Learning by Watching
- Invision
Group things by your interest.
- LaughCam
Support Vector Machine to classify what the sounds out of her mouth meant.
What she said was reliable indicator of what she was interested in.
- AI Can Help
To make things make sense to a person.
Coloring done by machine learning system, only 65% correct.
Even if 35% wrong, people are good enough to not notice that distraction.
The \"ransom note\" interface.
Better than interface that is completely consistent.
Folders?
You went back to Gmail.
- Car Coach
A variable schedule of reinforcement is productive.
If we say anything much negative, we do worse.
When you do something right - tell them right then? No. Give them a second to a second and a half. it is a much better time.

Connor here? He helped build a 14 display Pepsi machine. 
Interesting for what it did. How many people in front of it. Design a game.

- IM Disruption Manager
People distracted. Certainly we are.
People at Microsoft. How to make interruption consequences reduced.
Able to get 30% more forms filled out.
Be more careful - 25% fewer errors.
Act of changing how disruptive things were coming in. Bring them - only 2 minute delay - when you weren't as active.
- 
Talking trivet. Cooking.
Box knows how long in fridge
-
Dice that teach about patterns.
counting
probability
Playing with considerate interface.
- Smart sink
- Spoon that teaches cooking
What would it take for people to like their spoon?
teach them to make things like candy or chocolate
- Digital Cig
-
In 90's wearable computers.
I think I want to be in the environment.
Great helmet - mediate between myself in the world.
Wore for 8-9 years.
-
- 
Smart kitchen.
Overlay information on surfaces.
Projector - smart light - great fun if it doesn't frustrate you.
Words on wall didn't help, but flames around burner.
Painting on the world.
How you say things matters.

HCI books:
Card & Moran
ACM CHI
Interact
IUI 

What do you got to know about? Cognitive Science.
What are our abilities?

Statistics. If you don't have it, you are not doing HCI.

Design: crucial to creating scenarios.

Computer science.
-
Androids example - people making dumbed down interfaces.
Tools you can download in one click
Know variables
Barely had with supercomputers
These kids in one week were up and running.

I tease myself.
Art is having ideas that will create emotion
Science is ideas people will refer to
Design people will use.

Designers have not written. How important emotion is. 
Thing really missing is the evaluation part.
-
Leave you with something about what I do.
I love to create, invent.
Process of better user interfaces
is one of thinking of ideas as an action movie.
On a limb, snake, cliff, waterfall.
People are solving problems with the momentum of physics.

If waiting for \"the\" good idea, you won't be having good ideas.
We have been using computers for planning, now much more communication.
Many ways in which we engage with the world.
11:06

Ted: about 40% doing e-mail

Sasha/Canada: Challenge we face in development of websites, content dissemination things. We run into ability of people to understand. I'm just wondering how computers adapt to humans. How can we learn faster

Ted: Adaptive help system. First AI-based system. Watched while you programmed.
Matched help to you level.
When person doesn't know - give them a success.
Taking person from where they are to where they can go is the most exciting of all.
[holding sharpie]
This is a ball.
It has a squeaky part [the cap]
Learning these affordances is hard.

Sasha: 
Ted: Epigenetic stuff. We can learn to learn better. We have tools. Memory aids are a big one. Pacing aids. Closed rooms where you can concentrate - that's a bigger one.
AI to help you forward through a path someone else has been on.
If you don't know what has been done before, lot of repeating things.

Alison Lewis/US: Thank you. I share your passion of lover of techology, express our emotions and stay connected. Struggle - consumption - being wasteful. Decided not be a project designer - adding more junk to the world.

Ted: This morning I took shower. Bucket. Took soapy water to flush the toilet.
In making processes, we don't have to make them consumptive.
In Japan, they have a sink hand wash that is the top of the toilet.
We can make things more/less consumptive. That is our choice.
Making products is inevitable. We can make them respectful.

Jan/Germany: So we are designing for Space, developing countries. Space? Trapped in our bubbles here. Developing countries- low tech.

Ted: Robots great in space. We do great in this bubble (Earth).
Developing countries - wells with diesel engines - people die when engine breaks.
Grocery stores sell stoves which use 1/5 of charcoal.

Jan: Tech deployed in 10 years. Way to leap ahead?

Ted: I love to think about the future. Things move slower - and faster.
Bathtub story. My water bill is twice my electric bill.
So it is an interesting statement - Water - big resource problem.
Human Reproduction - big problem
OLTP - a man-year's labor in a kid's hands. Mugged for a laptop.
In 10 years, not that long from now.

Bil/US: Enjoyed you talk. Very interested in HCI space.
Sensors. 

Ted:I've got a story.
We sat around fire.Want to go behind bush.
Nesters and nomads as animals.
Hearth keeps getting bigger and room to get away from it too.
We do both.
Part of human spirit.
People will abuse each other. 

Good things wil happen too.
Brad: CMU talk series 
Eliz Churchhill - ethnographer with Yahoo at 1:30
Brad: Always great.
Ted will come by at supper time.

Alison: Android workshop.
Ted: Let's do it.
Brad: Portal where.
Ted: Room 118, building 23. Come in turn right. Every day, video taped. On website.
Open to public.

11:19 [applause]

Merkle: Next speaker. Andrew Minor. UC Berkeley. 
Teaches the course on nanomaterials.

NT CL3 Nanomaterials (Andrew Minor)
WhenTue, July 6, 11:30am \u2013 12:30pm

11:21 Thanks for having me.
Nanomaterials. Ralph gave you an intro.
If something is not clear, stop me.
Take perspective of material scientist.
Lab in Hurst library building -steel was studied.
Silicon
Now diversified widely - biomaterials
Nano materials - what they are and how properties change with size.
-
Materials science - 
Performance
Properties
Structure
Processing 
all intertwined.

What makes a material a nanomaterial.The size.
Some characteristic length of 10s to 100s of atoms.
Laws of physics don't change.
course on quantum effects teaches you they roll up into newtonian physics.

Broad/easy definition - nano materials exhibit size effects.

nanomaterials exibit size effects
\"size effects\" when the size of the material affects the properties

-
Key thing about being small
More surface area.

As you get smaller and smaller in your grain size, the percent at the volume increases and this makes the properties change. 

- Example of a size effect is melting point

If you have a particle very small, melting point may be at room temperature
(See Buffat and Borel, Phys Rev A, 1976)
\"property changes the size\"

- Thin Films- nanomaterials common in technological applications
Sizes have real life implecations. Parts in electronic circuits are already nano-materials. They are thin film. 

- Real industrial consequences of size effects

Traditional microchip in processors is a MOSFET, 
metal\u2013oxide\u2013semiconductor field-effect transistor 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOSFET
usually the way they make things is they make things smaller. But what actually physically stop you to keep scaling things? When you get smaller and smaller, the properties change and thus different materials need to be used. 
By the time you get down to 5 atoms of something, is it really the same as the origional material. 
(See Muller. D. A., et al., Nature. 1999)

- Strength of Materials
Size is important. 
Young's Modulus - Slope of elastic loading (GPa)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Young's_modulus
Single-walled carbon nanotube[13]1,000+145,000,000+

Yield Stress - Actual Stress at which something breaks (MPa)
Pascal is a unit of stress and this is stress over an area. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal_(unit)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tensile_strength

DISLOCATIONS:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dislocation

- Most useful solids are crystalline
- Dislocations are missing rows of atoms which allow materials to deform mechanically w/out breaking. 
- Explains why metals are ductile

Crystal is actually not crystalline, its amorphous 

Dislocations are key to making metals ductile/brittle

- Early studies of size effects
First person to see size effects is Leonardo Da Vinci: 
He took a very simple experiment, took an iron water and put a weight at the bottom to see how long the wire could be before it broke.
Half piece would break at half the weight as the long piece. The longer the wire the smaller the possibility of fatal flaw.

- Early tests on size effects (cont.)
Really small wires you can bend forever and they don't break.
- Ideal strength - the stress required to plastically deform a \"perfect\" (defect-free) infinite crystal = G/2pi
-Experimental strength = G/1000

- What happens when you don't have any dislocations?
Any material (except semiconductor silicon) has many dislocations in it
[ref Tensile Strength of Whiskers]

- Grain Boundaries
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grain_boundary
Imagine you have a cube of water in an ice tray, you can have the possibility for:
1) one grain boundary -> solidification starts at one place (same way as metals solidify)
2) 2+ grain boundaries -> solidification starts at multiple places

These grain boundaries are important for how a material acts

- Grain Boundaries and mechanical properties

yield strength ~ grain size ^ (-0.5), totally imperical no one knows why

-Metallurgical Techniques Borrowed from History-folding techniques to decrease grain size
Japanese sword making - folding the metal over and over and over and the grain size decreases
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/samurai/vinci.html

-Accumulated roll-bonding
Properties change on grain size effect.

Stress vs Strain Diagram: larger grains break at lower stress, but are more ductile

- Focused Ion Beam Micromachining
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Focused_ion_beam
\"Because of the sputtering capability, the FIB is used as a micro-machining tool, to modify or machine materials at the micro- and nanoscale. FIB micro machining has become a broad field of its own, but nano machining with FIB is a field that still needs developing. The common smallest beam size is 2.5-6 nm.\"
What's making materials smaller solely based on their size?
In Oregon Focused Ion Beam created
Ion Beam is like a sandblaster using ions. You can cut anything you want down to 7nm resolution. Semiconductor industry originally used this for mask repairing.
One of the inventors of this machine said that years after he'd been selling this to Intel for $1M a piece, they told him each machine they bought saved them $1M a day. That's how useful these were for editing masks.
But we can also use these for making little structures to test.

- Micropillar compression testing
Mike Uchic takes one material and just mills out different size pillars.
Same material, just different sizes, and then plots out the macroscopic yield strength.
From about 40 microns and up, you're going to find the same number every time- the number you'd find in wikipedia.
Log-log plot: double exponential strength increase as size goes down
People have done this for lots of different materials.

- Pillars - smaller is stronger
Copper, vanadium, magnesium, nickel - doesn't matter. Below 40 microns you get this hardening effect, purely based on size.

- Sample size vs defect density
Imagine a bulk sample of metal. There are lots and lots of defects (represented by T structures). If you start to pull or push this material, somehwere in the material a defect will move a couple atoms one way, and the material will start to deform. The bulk strength is where somewhere, one of those defects gives way. Now we make it smaller, so there are fewer defects. OK. Now we make it so much smaller that it's smaller than the characteristic length of the defect. Now it's a statistical thing - is there a defect anywhere in the material? If not, you have to create a defect to deform the material.

- In situ TEM mechanical probing at NCEM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transmission_electron_microscopy
\"Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) is a microscopy technique whereby a beam ofelectrons is transmitted through an ultra thin specimen, interacting with the specimen as it passes through.\"
National Center for Electron Microscopy
http://ncem.lbl.gov/

- Microscopes
What's an electron microscope? It's very similar to a light microscope - in fact, optically, it's almost exactly equivalent. The reason it's useful is that a light microscope stops being useful at about a micron. Because the wavelength of light we see is about a micron, and you run into the Rayleigh limit. Electrons, though, their wavelength depends on the voltage of the electrons, and you can adjust that voltage and see all the way down to individual atoms.

- Electron Microscopes

You have a very sharp tip - tungsten usually - down to a few atoms, and you get a very high voltage, few hundred thousand volts, and it pulls off an electron that shoots down.

- Electron Optical Characterization: key tool for nanomaterials research

You can do things with electrons simultaneously that you can't do with light. You can do spectroscopy - distinguish carbon from nitrogen - you can image, and you can do diffraction and see the crystal structure. But in the end, the most important thing about electron microscopy is that you get spatial resolution down to 50 picometers.

- In situ mechanical testing

You have to put the whole laboratory inside a very small space, keep a vacuum, etc....why bother?

You want to figure out why something's deforming. Video showed of aluminium deforning.

[movie of aluminum being dented by diamond]
Grain boundaries can move at small scale.
Another reason to do something inside an electron microscope is to test something that's so small, you can't find it afterwards.

- In situ mechanical testing (2)

Cadmium[?] compression - another deformation video. Being able to monitor your test is really important, because something might have just slipped away instead of breaking. That's why we do it inside a microscope.

This is 100 nm - very small scale.

Being able to monitor your testing at a small scale is important.

- Cu nanocompression overview
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copper

This is a red blood cell, about the right size scale. We are basically doing tests at size scales that are within a cell. We're getting quanitiative information while also being able to see what's inside the test.

- Cu [100] Results

We're getting smaller, smaller and smaller. . . and we're running out of available dislocation sources (???)

- Cu [100] Single slip
The key is that you only have one type of dislocation.

Multiple slip and barreling.

- Mo pillar comparison w/ and w/o anneal
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molybdenum
[movie of shear]

You do this at a stress of 16 GPa. 
gigapascal (GPa)
The ideal strength of the material. The material liquifies. Instataneous liquification across the plain.

- Understanding Mechanical Size Effects

Computational Modeling - (See Gouldstone, Acta Mat, 2007)

- Conclusion
12:01 [applause]
Merkle: small things stronger.
Large things without defect, stronger.
Large things built from many many small things should also approach theoretical limit.

Q: Tony: Recycling?

Lead free solder
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solder

Types of steels

Brad: Defects are place where there could be failure. Why not all edges?

Edge is very easy place to start defects. Also place get dislocation to zip right out.
Atypical hardening.

12:09 Applause.

Salim: Andrew will stick around.
Lunch. Soccer on screen.
Bio tech workshop this afternoon.

Questions about life tonight. 7:30 - will be wine.
Thanks for the day this morning.
Please take cans/wrappers with you as you leave the room.

=============== DURING-presentation notes

Color card definitions:
Green - Agree
Red - Disagree
Yellow - Slow down (content) / I don't understand
Grey - Speed up we know this stuff / Move on to another topic

hands moving apart (sideways) - speak slower, speak more clearly

Link to backchan.nl for questions:
9:00am\u201410:00am Morning Session I
http://singularity.backchan.nl/meetings/view/137
10:15am\u201411:15am Morning Session II
http://singularity.backchan.nl/meetings/view/138
11:30am\u201412:30pmMorning Session III
http://singularity.backchan.nl/meetings/view/139

GSP10 Book List:
http://bit.ly/GSP10BookList

=============== POST-presentation notes

Instant Evaluation:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/a/singularityu.org/viewform?formkey=dGVzY3JzR3VFeTJjSElVcjM3REFpY0E6MQ

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul7-BB
"Wednesday 
7/7/2010 
9am - 12pm 
BB CL3 Brainstorm Research Foundation (Linda Avey) 
Slides: NA
BB CL4 Evolution of Directed Evolution (Lori Giver) 
Slides: http://bit.ly/cH4aRj
NT CL4 DNA Origami (Paul Rothemund) 
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaYjBkM2I3YTktZmVhYy00MjExLTg1MTAtMTExY2IwYmI2YjEy&sort=name&layout=list&pid=0B2Ij9HPeinaFOTU0MDYzNDUtOWYzMS00MWI5LTlhNmYtYzc5MWU2Y2YzYjM5&cindex=4

=============== PRE-presentation notes

Goal for today: MASSIVE links.
Talking with Ted Selker at dinner yesterday, he suggested 
5 links PER SLIDE. If we all pitch in on this, we can create
a very rich resource document.

Suggestions for types of links:
Key people
Companies/Organizations
Definitions of terms
Academic references
Software/Tools
Humor
Visualizations
Porn
More humor

If you don't want to interrupt the flow of the notes, use this parallel pad for links:
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul7-BB-links

Erez has introduced a new SUMMARY Etherpad:
http://su-etherpad.com/Pad-One-Liner
Please contribute.

Slide marker in Etherpad:
- 
at the left margin, the hyphen above indicates a new slide.

If someone wants to put in the TITLE of the slide, like this
- Example Title
that would be even better.

[ref]
If you need a reference, use this marker.

PRIOR BB pads: 
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun30-BB Seth Michelson, Raymond McCauley
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul6-BB Synthetic Bio & DIYbio Show and Tell

PRIOR NT pads:
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul2-NT Merkle - Intro to Nanotechnology
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul6-NCS Andrew Minor - Nanomaterials (third speaker)

=============== End of PRE-presentation notes

9:10
Her Genetics Blog: lillymendel.blogspot.com
Thank you. Who spit? [almost everybody]
Now service offered for $99.
Bit of backup at the lab.
Q: Is it possible to get back the raw data?
Yes, you can download it.
We had the wording wrong, so we had women in their 80's downloading data and not knowing what to do with it.
Background on 23andMe.
About 20 min of presentation. Rest for conversation.
So, just to go to the very beginning,
why start:
Had to do with work in biotech toolspace.
Tools to study DNA at molecular level.
History of working with research community.
(http://www.affymetrix.com, Perlegen Sciences, www.appliedbiosystems.com)
Hitting up against wall of frustration.
Could read genome with Applied Biosystems [ref]
Set budgets are impossible 
Very intrigued to read genomes of people with the disease
GWAS (Genome Wide Association Study. www.genome.gov/20019523) 
So genome wide association study taking off in 2000.
Guys get grants back, cut in half.
Statistical power was being eliminated due to the budget.

Trying to identify cohorts.
Disease studies had very low N.
Ad in Science: If you have enough people in a cohort, let us know.
Only one person at Mayo had 300 Parkinson's. Matched with discordant ...
Funding from Michael J. Fox [ref]
Probably not study design, not enough to \"move the needle\" on this disease.
http://www.michaeljfox.org/
Met Sergi Brin. 
MJ Fox people funding work. Sergi came to that meeting.
What he was thinking: Mother had Parkinsons.
Typical survey - what is P value to make genetic associations?
Tried to get him to meet statisticians.
Through that process - Google should be in genetic research
Incredibly powerful.
Get admin group lsa@google.com - sending e-mail constantly.
Finaly got traction.
Began conversation - Anna Givsky? who became my partner
We wanted to mix up things
In early days not so much about giving access
in 2006, familiar how little we knew about genetics.
Pharmacogenetics - how our bodies respond to drugs.
Hard to study - small numbers with severe side effects.
10,000 on drug, enough to find few with effect.
A that work, for so many drugs, you conclude -
we have a long way to go for personalized medicine.
We are sort of ginea pigs.

Q: Possible placebo effect?

Really good question. At perlegen
(patent: 7,335,474: http://www.patentstorm.us/patents/7335474/claims.html)
Either remove placebo effect people or know who they are.
Put some on the drug, osme not, do nested study.
Problem of research.

Interest in 23andME. Russ .. from Stanford.
Get all ph.gen studies. He was important advisor.
Design types of beneficial studies.
Big issue: you take drug, have good/bad reaction. More fundamental: how do you define disease.
Our definitions are 19th century. Symptoms. 
Parkinson's - different versions.
LRRK2 - with certain variations - Sergi and mother both have gene.
Other people with disease - not associated.

Could be different drugs. Different treatment profiles if you understand the genetic profile.

Bryce: To have a disease is to have a genetic trait. Create unnecessary fear?

If portrayed correctly. It is a risk. Not absolute. Must be written in the right way. If I have this gene, my risk is increase by a certain amount.

Find people with gene, never got disease.
Man, age 70, whose father had Parkinsons.
What stops it? Lifestyle?

FoSS? Genetics. 
You have your genetic profile.
you are at liberty to fill out survey on line.
Punch - like.
Research snippets.
Kind of fun. [ref]
Things you have been diagnosed with
Building out phenotype for you,
early association. Can you smell asparagus in your pee?

Two asparagus spears joke, \"Can you smell the humans in your pee?\"
150 studies going on.
So many people, over 50,000 now.
Hope more disease related publications.

Eriksson et al., \"Web-Based, Participant-Driven Studies Yield Novel Genetic Associations for Common Traits\"PLoS Genet 6(6) http://www.plosgenetics.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pgen.1000993
Having been at that for 4 years.
Stable
Building database
User interface had really evolved
Look at original - it was hillarious / antiquated.
Had mission now to develop concept in not-for-profit way.
Always get profit question.
In HC space, if for profit -> distrust.
Not customer base, but outside.
Still, lingering questions about model.
Brainstorm research foundation (www.brainstormrf.org/)
Autism, bipoloar, diseases of the mind. Challenging.
Need to focus.
Model where people can join the foundation.
Tools to track own brain health.
Inhereited genes.
Are there markers for dementia?
Are there markers for decline, poor mental health? Make available for research.
Different brain exrecises. Do they work?
Physical exercise is better.
I'm a runner myself. Can change whole perspective.

Tremendous number of calls. They think I just give out money.
Can project manage things.
Foundation 2.0 - no overhead. All money goes to specific projects.
Cohort for Alzheimers.
I'll go to full genome sequencing.
Thinking about how to organize genetic data.
At least 5 companies [refs]
See Third Generation Sequencing 
(overview article: http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090206/full/news.2009.86.html)
on next-next-generation approaches to low cost geneic data)
Net-Gen includes Illumina, Life Technologies, Roche/454, etc.
Next-Next-Gen includes Helicos, Pacific Biosciences, SZ Genomics, Halcyon Molecular, Lightspeed Genomics, etc.
https://dnanexus.com/
See groups with inside knowledge.
Created this model now. 
Immersing in FaceBook, Twitter, tried Buzz - it didn't work.
See how people engage each other.
FaceBook is the best place for Brainstorm.
None of the data will be stored there. Just a marketing platform.
Ad system: target age, sex. Tells how many people.
highly recommend it.
Study innards of social netwrok.
Pwerful way.
29 m. Aged 40-55. 
Alz - few 1,000s
Not influx of data about various diseases.
that will be first
get ad revenues going
test to see how that works.
Raising money to get people screened. APO4E+ [ref]
Or other reasons for concern (family member)
Very project based.
Concept people can get their heads around.
Better than not having accountability for donations.
Would love questions.
I'm here and willing to chat.

Q: Loads of questions. What dataset do you make available?

At 23andMe. No data are made available. You could pose a question.
Propose a survey. Negotiating that. 
Interesting thing on bioinformatics. Not many capable. We have people with math/stats backgorunds.
They take piece on, give you ffeedback.
Early stages for outside research project.
We feel strongly about security.
But also give opportunity to pose questions.

Q: David/NZ: As I understand it there were countless SNPs you could have chosen. If I do my test later, more details?

We are on version 2.
When we - setled on Illumina - you can pick. 550,000 SNPs on an array.
Did not meet our needs. We wanted mitro- and chromosome.
Our scientists picked 30,000 on V1. Appended onto 550,000.
All of the SNPs known - single gene disorders. Rare. 
Now able to report carrier status for extremely rare diseases.
For people that find that out, incredibly important.
Most people - so what? - but interesting experience at Mayo clinic
Anthro/ethicist. Carrying sickle cell. Questioned sample. Looked at blood under microscope, saw sickling.
Diagram - paints chunks of different ancestral origins.
She had big African chunks she didn't know we there.
This dataset has enabled that ability.

Q: Why not more psychology oriented surveys?

Priorities.
Small team. 
Really swamped.
If you've got one to propose ...

Q: with new stuff, how expressed ... twins, if discordant, 

Full genome sequencing.
Jumping genes. Transposons [ref]
Tumor versus 
Neurological diseases.
Tougher.

Q: Erez/Israel/biologist. Genetic testing big on pre-natal screening.
People not wanting to be tested due to insurance.
Major opportunity for 23andMe - sequence without information being spread. Know whether kids about to be sick - abort or not?

More and more of those. Part of that dataset. Becoming more powerful.
Will be in J in October.

Q: Sasha/Canada. What are you dling as leaders in space to make it mainstream?

Just launching compnay was startling. Took people by surprise.
Google as partner. 
With the v
Make more appealing.
Cost issue - insane response at $99.
Not just geeks in Bay Area. International.
When word gets out, spreads like wildfire.
Regulatory issues.
More heavy hand.
Met with FDA to let him know what we are up to.
Pathway,competitor, kits at Walgreens. BAd reaction to that.
Prompted FDA to step in.
(FDA Letter to Pathway: http://www.fda.gov/MedicalDevices/ResourcesforYou/Industry/ucm211866.htm)

I believe it needs regulating in sensible way.
Key to continue research part of it. Press doesn't write about that side.
We want to get word out, but take measured approach.

Q: Brad/US: Release anonymously for other researchers.

No. 
Will keep data secure.
Study - possible to go in and identify people.
De-identified data is kind of a myth.
Census data can be queried.
Better model.

Q: Linda, this is fascinating. Social sphere. Marketing in social network space.
Have you thought of Facebook as a way of organizing or even fund.
Kickstarter
One way to drive thigns forward.

Great idea. 
how do you get people who have already expressed interest.
Alzheimers networks are pretty active.
Meeting in France. We need an earthquake in Alzheimer.
How can you create a \"Health Quake\" [Hmm. Remember the USGS \"did you feel it\" tool?]

Q: Norm in screening.

Two tiered - get feet wet, but don't want to pay for sequencing.
Need to have really high confidence when reporting back.
Genotyping is very accurate. Well established.
Rather than be at leading/bleeding edge.
Two tier - low cost genotyping, higher - $1000 - for full seq.

Q: Meeting next week?
So, one thing that happened with legislative 
Alex Pedilla, California State Senator, SB482 Personal Genome Tests http://info.sen.ca.gov/cgi-bin/postquery?bill_number=sb_482&sess=CUR&house=B&site=sen
\"[This 2009 bill would have provided Californians the consumer and privacy protections necessary when they seek to obtain information about their unique genetic makeup and hereditary predispositions from companies offering these services. HELD IN COMMITTEE]\"

Old/antiquated. Paternalism needs tobe weeded out.
Continue conversation.
Community outreach. What we are proposing in a new bill.
Room for change.
Meeting around that topic. [ref]

Q\"Bryce: Agree on legistlation.
Getting big enough chohrt. P Obtaining consent under the structures of the Declaration of Helsinki \"Ethical Principles for Medical Research Involving Human Subjects\" http://ohsr.od.nih.gov/guidelines/helsinki.html) 
Other countries may not have the capacity to process that much data.
Family members.
Paradigm of informed consent can stand?

Early on, had form. Very straightforward to opt into research or not.
You are joing 23andMe and we do conduct research.
Not clear cut enough.
Commercial ERB (ethics review board)
No ideas what survey we would put out to people.
First meeting, early '07. My daughter has a genetic disorder.
We've got ERB approval now.
New consent form launched last week.
ERBs are trying 
Rolling consent is fascinating.
(see 2006 interview genetic ethics: http://bioethics.georgetown.edu/pcbe/transcripts/nov06/session4.html) 
On panel.
People can change their minds.
Coming up with ways for people to change their minds.
What would be models for that: enought privacy and yet contribute to research.

Q: You sais anon is mythn. Yet de-identified - hard to connect to person.
Rolling consent means wyou want to get back in touch.
Conflict - maintain consent .. practical conflict?

At least 23 very closed model. Not open to public domain.
Even in company, we store personal information - credit card - separate from genetic data. Only scientists have genetic.
IRB ? approval
i think we have decided to just take this model for now.
ee how it goes.
News feed created uproar. Will shift with time.

Q: Julielynn Wong/ Canada/US: Modern age of social networking can give response bias (but large numbers). How are stat dealing with tat?

Since i'
Clean up dataset by analysis.
Do you have blue eyes yes/no.
If conflict, their data may be ignored. Are they giving what we think is an accurate answer.
Cohort changes every day. P value changes. Plot is interesting.

Can you sprint? Frame of reference. I kicked butt in 100 yard dash.
My dad. Baseball player. Didn't have even one copy of the gene.
You almost have to have that gene to compete in the olympics.
Curvy/wavy hair - image comparison is helpful.
Certainly room for error.
Is larger less clean better than pristine?
Wikipedia vs encyclopedia
Tools - without preconceived notions.

Q: Derek/Canada: Can you talk about how Brainstorm foundation is going to include external data sources. Integrating with George Church's 1000 genomes project https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/1000_Genomes_Project

Capability of uplaoding
DNA nexus model [https://dnanexus.com/]
Works across platforms. Make it universal.
Then I don't have to raise money to get them sequenced. REally helpful.

Q: Raymond: Loved that data on chip is open.
Almost anyone else who has done things commercially has not done that.
A lot of debate?
Leting people see data?

Right off the bat. We wanted our own data.
Fundamental right.
They paid for it, they should have it.
onus on us to make interface place where they want to keep their data.
Make interface interesting and usable.
More coming out.
Updates all the time. New rports on weekly basis.
People think - log in, see what they see, So not true.
Want to make suer everyone is aware of that.

Chiara: You don't get data at lab. I pay you to know what is my genetic info. but if I am a researcher, I cannot get. It is not really open source.

Your data beling to you personally. If you download data and give to researher.

Bryce: Can researcher come to you? Ask you to send request for consent?

Main thing is if customers are OK with that.
As you go into the community.
Over 4000 different conversations, back to 2006.
Parkinsons.
If everybody saidk Hey, we like this guy down at UCLA, let's send him our data, you could do that.

BrycE: 300 person dataset. If people are mallicious or ... giving data not your own.

More rare diseases. If interesting from fresearch perspective .. 
Surveys article on Wired cover this month (http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/06/ff_sergeys_search/all/1)
How quickly we could come to similar conclusions.
Guy had answer in 10 minutes.
What questions would you like to pose? Proactive. Keeps data very secure.

Q: Rand. 

10:09 Break [23 on pad]

10:17 Lori Giver (http://www.codexis.com/)

- The Evolution of Directed Evolution
First things first. Evolution in the laboratory for industrial purposes.
- Corporate Phylogeny
More general talk for this audience. How one person can have impact on the world. Zaffaroni - I'm a local girl, born in 1968. Very different area. Biotech grew up here organically. Zaffaroni founded ALZA. In blue shows how companies were acquired.
- Alejandro Zaffaroni quote 1
One of my colleagues had this great quote. Be exploring new areas, fail safely. Found another quote:
- Alejandro Zaffaroni quote 2
(AZ: Biotech Hall of Fame: http://www.chemheritage.org/exhibits/biotech/zaffaroni.html)
In looknig for people to run new compnaies. Broad perspectve.
- Codexis Technology
We are focused on optimizing bio catalysts.
Almost all talk about individual enzyemes.
Why / how / how changed in 20 years / where 5 and 10 years forom now
Not a pharma co.
Active campaign in biofuels.
Exciting new projects I won't be able to talk about now for carbon capture.

- Why Biocatalysis?
Why use rather than chemical process. Variety of reasons:
Cost
Quality
Not extreme temperatures.
Not toxic.
If you can get reactoin done for you, will make the desired compound, not as an enantiomer[?]
Rarely something they can throw in, see how it works. 
- Sources of Biocatalysts
Several approaches.
Look in natural diversity. Lot of activities inearly 90's
People out there digging interesting organisms out of hot spring.
Thermophylic 
Extreme Ph, high temp, low temp.
If looking at extremes, know what is extreme here on earth 
Went to school in Indiana [ref]
to work on that.

Second approach: build enzyme yourself.
We don't know enough about how they fold and function.

Protein Eng - evolve to what you want it to be.
- Protein Engineering
Most don't do what you want. Traits need to be improved.
High fructose corn syrup use.

Dfficult - 300 amino acids. Basically a lot of ways to modify.
How is it possible to screen millions and millions of variants.
Lot of ways to bring it down to a managable problem.
Ways it may not be doing what you want it to do.
Try to make it do what you want.
We just don't understand enough.
Molecular evolution.
Screen for those you want. Keep building on that.

- Approaches to Protein Engineering
- Evolution by Natural Selection
Older work in population genetics
A lot of improbabiliteis
- Classical Breeding Yields Novel Solutions: Horses
In nature, this works very well. Progenitor eohippus. Very different breeds.
- Classical Breeding Yields Novel Solutions: Dogs
This is the wild type dog. Over many generations of breeding and selection you get functions and non-functions.
How to do this in lab on much more rapid scale with genomes?
- History of Directed Molecular Evolution
Late 60's - people training on RNA replication. Pick molecules which replicated more quickly. Depending on selection pressure, should be able to force them in different directions.
Phage - which can bond to ligands. 
Then in 1990, pubs from Tuerk and Ellington - select for different properties.
Shortly a ... inhibit biomolecules.
1994 DNA shuffling.
- DNA Shuffling - 1994
Take molecule. Recombine it with itself.
Extraordinary.
Lot of debate. Would this work? People were up in arms.
In the Nature paper - example.
- \u03b2-Lactamase evolution
Took antibiotic resistant organism, selected for higher and higher levels.
32,000x capabilities in just a few generations.
This was phenomenal.
Lot of concern about resist organisms.
Quote: \"very powerful ... potentially dangerous\"
- Recombination: Why Sex is Good
Why works so well.
Make random mutations.
Take best you can find.
Repeat.
Small steps up to fitnes.
In Shuffling. Take everything that has improvement, recombine Not rediscover beneficial mutations, just recombining. Gives leaps.
- Directed Evolution by Classical DNA Shuffling
Genes can be 60% identical.
They could also be point mutations.
Very very similar.
In lab, randomly fragment. Reassemble into full length.
A library of genes.
10^2 to 10^6 genes.
Piece of gene will not translocate.
No deletions or insertions.
Most will be interesting new variants.
Other approaches truncate.
Put into host, make into protein, repeat process.
- How DNA Shuffling Improves Genes
Smiley faces are mutations.
Blue good.
Red bad.
Method gets the bad ones out.
Other ways don't allow for getting out deleterious mutations.

- Semi-Synthetic DNA Shuffling
Around 2000/1 went to semi-
one gene of interest.
Oligos incorporate themselves at different rates
HTP [?] screening.

- Advantage of Semi-Synthetic Shuffling
Shuffling of 10 unique mutations, one from each of 10 genes.
Reason it works better.
Each with a single mutation.

Price and cost hasn't improved to much (potential problem space) 
Semi-Synthetic Shuffling Acceslerates accumulationof mutations
BUT, how can we know which... (see slides)

- ProSAR: Protein Sequence-Activity Relationships
A statistical model that correlates sequence with function.
WHAT THEY DO NOW: They sequence variety from the process and code for that. For every gene we have they will know how active it is or its relativity to its parent. 
What is the mutations impact on the gene status?? 

- ProSAR Model: Alignment View
Color coded ranking of correlation coefficients

All you can do is try to replicate the key parameters as best you can.

- Directed Evolution Technologies 
OK, after ProSAR analysis, we've changed how we do our process.
We are thinking about mutations all the time.
Which are most beneficial.
Designing new libraries to keep building on that.
If I take this mutation and stick it into that gene, it may help, but not sure.
Always designing libraries, not trying to make one perfect gene.

- Evolution of Directed Evolution
This changed our view of how recombination works and how to make it work more effectively. Which are beneficial mutations even if they are in genes whcih are less fit than we started with.

- Modern Biocatalysis Paradigm
Changed to new paradigm.
Design around available - > design process you want and we'll build biocatalyst.
- Going Green Keeps Getting Easier
This compound, C5, they were sourcing, put into product.
Designed 3 enzyme process.
Convert to alcohol, then ...
Won award. Big publish for us.
- Chemical Cyanation of ECHB
Pfizer doing that with process from Mitsubishi
You can make a whole lot of things you don't want.
Volume fractionalization needed. Better to make ti more economical.

Q: Talk about Going Green slide more.
Went through really fast. Really important.

i'm leaving out that, at the time, big blockbuster drug.
Mfg of drug - if changed, require
- Enablement of Biocatalytic Cyanation
- Climbing Mount Improbable*
- Diversity Generation
- Automated Parallel SOEing (APS)*

- APS Formats
- APS Workflow Accelerates Enzyme Evolution
- Project Example
- Sitagliptin: A potent and selective DPP-IV inhibitor
- Merck\u2019s Current, 2nd Generation Process
- The Aspirational Process
- Problem and Approach
- Establishing Activity on the Pro-Sitagliptin Ketone
-
-
- Compounded Fold Improvements
- Summary and \u201cFinal\u201d Biocatalyst 
- Future Opportunities
- Protein Evolution
- Sugar Platform: Key Building Blocks
- Major Constituents of Cellulosic Biomass
- Cellulosic Biofuels Basics
When you are trying to create biofuels, try to break down cellulose.
Chop up, get slurry. Most sugars not available.Working on whole suite of enzymes.
Feed organisms to create second generation fuel molecules.
Whole area scaling to work on genome level.

Kind of same level as gene shuffling.Using omex? technologies.

- Acknowledgements
That's it. 

Lot of Codexis and Merck collaboration.
11:13 5 minutes of quick questions.

Q: Tony: How far are we from doing eugenics for humans?

I think we are doing genome evolution at microbial scale.
Yeast. Starts to rival human genome size.
Which ones are beneficial mutations. You could do them on any type of genome. Whether you would or not is another question.
We have been able to expand out.
Right now, it is not infeasible.
Take microbe which makes ethanol.
Train a yeast to use zylose. A few changes have to occur.
Just train it.
Do full genome sequencing and produce variants.
Moving on to humans, it is just more sequence.
Talk before - will be affordable soo.

Q: Sasha: Most of execution is done in controlled settings. Biofuels.
Unintended consequences, environmental space. Mutations, reactions you didn't expect.

These 5000 l reactors ARE reactors.
Bioremediation.
Can you grow algae. It needs to be OUT.
They need light.
Generally, right now, there is no release of recombinant organisms.
Not in the projects we do or the projects we plan to do.
Huge opportuniteis there, but engineer so they can't compete with wild.
have to be hampered. Keep them from exploding out wildly.

Q: Chiara: If I understood well, when you test on plate, why don't you usea 3D system. If not, why not?

We did a it of work awhile ago. Really interesting. 430 O plates stacked.
Visual indication of which working
Right now, we are not needing to push number beyond rountine.
Haven't been pushing teh 3D approach.
Depends on screen and what you are trying to look for.

Q: Erez/Israel: Thank you for very interesting talk. invented something similar to PROSAR 8 years ago. Interesting to see it again.

Revisco. Part of photosynthesis. Passive enzymes. Project with Rio Tinto. Can you improve photosynthetic organisms. Very challenging.
A tetramer of octomers. Almost every residue - very easy to cripple that enzyme. Hard to improve it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RuBisCO
Might be worth another look now.
How they might use - photobioreators or what they would do.

Q: Screening. Specifically which is going in silico.

We don't do any in silico for enzyme function.
Others try that. Go into lab and synth top variants.
Even those suggest, interesting starting points for directed evolution.
Lot of in silico screening - didn't need to do that.

Raymond: Thank you Lori.

Couple things as takeaways: 
directed evolution - don't need to really know how it works to improve it.
DNA synth still a blocking point
Improve through automation.

helpful review article(s):
Tracewell and Arnold 2009 \"Directed enzyme evolution: climbing fitness peaks one amino acid at a time\" http://www.che.caltech.edu/groups/fha/cara.pdf \"Evolution has created numerous specialized enzymes that function in living cells to catalyze the chemical reactions of life. Their specificity is tuned so that they generally do not tread on each other\u2019s toes. But that does not mean their specificity is absolute: a recurring observation has been that many enzymes have weak activity on non-native substrates and that directed evolution can amplify these weak activities.\"
[11:24] Break

Up next: Nanotechnology
NT CL4 DNA Origami (Paul Rothemund) 
11:32 Merkle: Everyone back for next talk.
Brilliant, fascinatingand delightful.
You will not want to miss this speaker.
Folks in the lobby - come back, come back ....
Alright.
Honor to have Paul Rothemund (properly pronounced Rote-a-mund)
Grabbed cover with smiley face.
Brilliant accomplishment.
Labs said, \"You can make a smiley face. You can make anything\"
Those in the field were kicking themselves because they said \"If only I'd realized you could make smiley faces!\"
Giving talks all over about the inspiration of how he came up with this idea
It's a great honor to say we have Paul here to explain what's going on.
[11:35] Paul:
- Beyond Watson and Crick: programming DNA self-assembly towards integration with nanoelectronics
This event is about thinking seriously about the longer term. A kind of event we should have more of, but not a new idea. You should read \"Future Shock\" by Alvin Toffler.
A lot of the lessons of that book are applicable today, so I'd encourage you to think about them.

The Singularity is a science fiction concept. I'll indulge the science fiction desires for a second.
- Before I die ... I'd like to see humans:
I'd like to be able to program biology with the same facility with which we program computers.
We'd like to be able to create whole organisms to specification.
I'd like us to find ET life.
I'd like us to create AI.
I'd like us to find ET *intelligence*.
I'd like us to create an equitable social operating system, allowing every person to live up to their full potential (i.e. world peace).
Oh, and a pony.

What if anything does nanotech have to do with any of that? And do our predictions for the time course have any bearing on reality? Are we calibrated for that?
-
I work on things that go towards the first two -programming biology and creating life.
-
A comment about programming vs Programming. Little-p programming is like a VCR or a chemist specifying a particular structure. Some finite set of possibilities. Specifying when your TiVo is going to turn on, that sort of thing. Capital-P Programming is the computer science sense - anything you can do with a computer - Turing-complete programs.

- \"Synthetic biologists\" \"Molecular Programmers\"
A whole bunch of people are synthetic biologists, and a bunch of people that don't know what they should be called but synthetic biologists let us hang out with them. \"Molecular Programmers.\" Mostly biomolecule-oriented. I want to give the sense that a lot of people are working on this stuff. I'm on the molecular side - changing the actual substrate for the things we're building.

The field I'm part of is DNA technology and DNA computing.
- For 30 years, Ned Seeman and his descendants
Seeman succeed in making enormous complex DNA polyhedra. That's one subfield of DNA nanotech: how do you encode in molecules strucutre.

My part of the world is function and dynamics with DNA. 

- (p)rogramming Function and Dynamics - 2000, physicists
Bernie Yurke made a little DNA tweezer - 50 piconewtons of force - pretty respectable on the atomic scale.
Then others made it into walkers and little Rube Goldberg machines.

- (P)rogramming molecules to perform computation - 1994, computer scientists
The third strand is programming molecules to perform computation - DNA computing. Was heralded as a competitor to electronic computing. What happened? Many ways to compute with DNA, but none were competitive with electronic computing. For all the methods anybody could dream up, it didn't seem we could come within 4 orders of magnitude of electronic computers.
But at a molecular level, a little computation goes a long way. Cells have to decide what kind of cell to be, and that's transacted by a little molecular computer inside your cells. Cell divison - an elaborate choreographed dance - regulated by networks, possibly modelable as circuits - are mediating that as well. Our interest now is to do just a little computation in DNA and use that for other little molecular machines.

Q: How do inputs come? How are they processed?

Set of sensors sense food. Transducers bring that into cell.
Then there's a complex cascade of proteins that [...] motors on the end of the bacteria. In this way bacteria can move up chemical gradients, getting closer to a food source. It costs energy to make the machinery to digest certain kinds of food. If there's a new kind of sugar around you need to switch your metabolism. So you have sensors for those sugars, and a regulatory network that interacts with the genome, turning genes on and off depending on what's around.

Decisions made at molecular level that are just decisions. Not like a chess program.
It's a relatively short computation. Doesn't have the depth of a chess program or something like that.

- All three - structure, function and computation - are necessary for the creation of systems with the complexity of living systems.

So we're taking a crack at all three. The reason we use DNA is because, while we have a field of protein engineering, we understand DNA a lot better and can do a lot more with it. It's an approachable substrate to actually do engineering in.

- It's .. skip this
- Catalog of molecular parts (Goodsell, http://www.pdb.org/pdb/home/home.do)
There's a photosensor in cells. There's a light-harvesting complex. There are switches. Signals come in, there's computation that's performed, and it's decided whether to turn genes off.

There are girders - protein filaments that are quite stiff - and motors, proteins that walk along these protein filaments.

- DNA bricks - Symmetry sets the stage
DNA strands bind and wrap around each other to make this little brick.
They're single strands - not double helix.
Brick has four sequences on its edges. By giving each edge a different sequence, it's possible to program this object - in the little p sense - to make interesting structure.
In one case we programmed them to make crystalline tubes that are similar to those proteins in biology.

- [diagram] TTACG
- [photo of DNA bricks]
We could use two different ones to make walls with diagonal or perpendicular stripes...

The point is, we can begin, with DNA, to recapitulate some of the forms we see in biology. These DNA tubes are about as long as protein filaments, and almost as stiff. Nobody could make a de novo protein that would be anything like that. This is the power we see with DNA nanotech.
- 5-fold \"star\" monomer, spontaneous symmetry breaking
We can also make pretty much any wallpaper pattern you want - can design a little DNA brick for any pattern. But we're not just interested in repeating patterns - only good for very crystalline memory. I worked with Erik Winfree at Caltech to do Programming - embed a computer program in those DNA bricks.
- Algorithmic crystals that can simluate cellular automata
- [zoomed view] Pascal's triange modulo 2
[Sierpinski shown]
4 different types of bricks in here. As they grow, they begin to compute. What they're actually computing is the form of a fractal - it's got errors, but - it's the form of a Sierpinski gasket. They're performing a binary computation and leaving this pattern in their wake. It's the binomial coefficients - a somewhat useful pattern. Much more complex than the periodic patterns I talked about before. As these little bricks self-assemble, rather than just making a boring wallpaper, you could use it to lay out a complex circuit. Won't go into how we're doing that, but that's one model.

The thing is that it turns out that this algorithmic self-assembly from Erik is useful for building very large objects that have some structure, but not useful for arbitrary structure at a small length-scale. You are grown in an algorithmic way. Genome - 3 bln base pairs - a process called development grows it into you, and the genome specifies you vs an elephant. You are much bigger than the genome that is used to build you. The genome gets decompressed into a very large structure. But at the smallest length scale, you want something with some random structure - maybe any pattern that you want to make - not suitable for algorithmic.

- So we can 
- [long strand]
- [short stands]
My approach to arbitrary patterns is what I call DNA Origami. This is a long single-strand of DNA. A very small piece of a 7000 base-pair strand. You can imagine it stretching all thw ay around the room and meeting itself on the other corner of the screen. We use short strands of DNA to fold that very long strand of DNA. We call the short strands staples. The left half of the staple binds the long strand in one place, and the right half binds the long strand in a different place. 
- [long strand bound by short strand]
So it enforces a constraint between them and binds those places together. The net action of about 200 of those short strands fold the long strand into some pattern - for instance a rectangle.
- rectangle
- Shawn
- [cartoon animation of molecular self-assembly of what it must be like.]

You can see as it goes on some double-helices forming...not complete double-helices, but they're held together by what are called crossovers. Where a strand is held by one part of the long strand but then jumps to another helix. In this way we make something that approximates the shape we want, but all the individual pieces are mostly making double-helices, which is what they want to do anyway.

We actually don't know that much about the detailed trajectory that this process takes over hours or days - they're probably binding and unbinding all the time.

- [animation of long scaffold shape - arbitrary shape - smiley face]
I wanted to show that this really could make arbitrary patterns - structures that weren't just convex - had holes, and other things. So I decided to make this smiley face. To give you an idea of the lengthscale. This is 100 nm across. 1/70th the width of a red blood cell. Very small. How do you see it? With an AFM (atomic force microscope).

- http://virtual.itg.uiuc.edu/training/AFM_tutorial
AFM using a very small micromachine needle, dragged back and forth across a surface. (So we have to somehow get the DNA from solution onto that surface.) As the needle hits the surface we can measure the deflection. So we have a method - could have been done in the 50s - very low-tech, amazingly - for seeing what hapens.

- [100 smiley faces floating around]
How do get onto the surface? You wash the solution over mica, which is very flat. The DNA origami stick to it, and then you can take an AFM image of that surface. 
- [arrangement of smiley faces]

Look at the image, and you see smiley faces. They aren't perfect, but 72% are what you wanted. You can actually see the path that the scaffold takes and you can see the little unfolded bit at the bottom.
- A catalog (again) [with smiley face overlay]
To compare to other things that we're trying to recapitulate in biology, we're actually beginning to engineer and make arbitrary shapes at that level. We cannot make things with the fine resolution of proteins. We can't begin to approximate that. But we're only about 10 times larger.
- a, 12.5mM MgCl2 [with triangular shapes.
If you make a structure that's more rigid than the smiley, you don't have this problem with the structure getting busted, and the yield is more like 95%. It's really a defect of the weak smiley face that we don't get a higher yield.
- image - looks like map - China! Lulu Qian
Even put Taiwan on there. 
Completely replicable. Just made what she wanted. 
- crosses, girders
Since people have done all kinds of things - 3D structures- William Shih. Rigid structural elements, crosses, girders of all kinds. They take about 2 weeks to fold, but you can bring all these helices together in this tiny space and make amazing things.
(see http://research4.dfci.harvard.edu/shih/SHIH_LAB/Home.html)
(see CAD Nano http://cadnano.org/)
- 3D structures - machine walking along protein track
The major thing that it's going to do is custom instruments for biology. Up here is a 3d shape that makes a little track. He's intending to use these as tracks for proteins. The goal is to use these as probes for what happens in actual biology. There are lots of questions about protein walkers. And one way to answer them is to make tracks with different steps. If there's a bigger distance, maybe it would walk faster. Or maybe it would fall off altogether. We can't engineer the tracks as proteins, but we can engineer DNA tracks. We can put protein walkers on them and watch them.

It turns out the protein engineering actually is good enough for this. But it gives you the feeling that this is the kind of thing we're going to do.
- Custom instruments for biology 
Another example - a Japanese group -Endo and Sugiyama - they made a DNA picture frame. Two wires going across it are DNA double helices. One is short and one is long. The long is loose, the short is taut. And when you put this red enzyme that puts a mark on it, it will modify the loose one but not the taut one. Another enzyme that cuts, won't cut at the mark, but will cut the taut one. We've made this custom jig that allows us to probe the activity of enzymes, in a single-molecule setting. We can really begin to interact with proteins in a much richer way - answer complicated and subtle questions. One of the fantasies is that this will be the first thing biologists think of - that when they want to study what a protein's doing, they'll make a DNA origami custom instrument.

There is a CAD software for these things that you can download and play with http://cadnano.org/intro.html
-
- DNA boxes
- Lund, et al, 2010 (Stojanovic, Winfree, Walter, Yan)
Referencing a couple papers at the end - DNA strands hanging off origami, protein with flourescent markers, and arms that can cut the dna strands, and they can have proteins walking along the DNA origami, a hybrid protein-DNA walker. A synthetic system for studying artificial molecular walkers. People have even made walkers that pick up cargo and put it into a little package. We can talk more about that offline.

- Each staple goes to unique position
-
-
Let's talk more about DNA's patterning ability. You have a bunch of staples that will end up in a particular position. 
- Shapes
So you can make patterns. You can make a snowflake pattern or the americas, and you can spell things - you might think it's just artwork, but artwork is exactly what we need for technology: photolithography for microelectronics is a way of taking artwork and scaling it down. 
- chip
Wires and switches are printed in metals and semiconductors. If we have a better way to do that at a smaller scale we could make better faster computers. Fantasy of putting functional components on the DNA.
- each component
- Two dimensional organization of carbon nanotubes on DNA origami
We've started to make halting steps in that direction - nanotube transistors this way? Put nanotubes on DNA sequences that are complementary to bits of DNA origami. Should organize the tubes into a cross, which for the right kind of nanotubes is all you need for a transistor. We did that and you can use a special tool to write electrodes to it. You can connect up to it, and you can measure that you can switch. So we can make a transistor this way. [Aside: When we did this work, we were having a problem with aggregation, and this DNA ribbon made them more stable for unclear reasons. Potentially not necessary for this system.] 

- The Design ... 
- Benchmarking [slides not shown, skipped]

- Two dimensional organization of carbon nanotubes on DNA origami (with AFM image)
However, the problem is you make these things in solution and they go all over the place. The great challenge is that you have to put these on a surface to wire them up, and it's like taking a deck of cards and throwing them on the floor. You have to find them! It's an incredible challenge. And they cross-link, aggregate, all kind of things. 

- Two dimensional organization of carbon nanotubes on DNA origami (Hunt and Peck)
These electrodes were written down to the nano-scale - had to be done tediously by grad students. They made these beautiful crosses but it's impossible to integrate them. 
- One solution to placement
Another strain of research we have is putting DNA origami where you want on surfaces. I did that with a group at IBM Almaden. You can use standard lithographic techniques to make sticky patches, so when we pour the DNA across they'll go exactly where we want. 
- IBM group
- origami on surface
We can convince ourselves that not only do we get one origami for each hole in the surface, but we get 95% of them in line and where we want.
- combining placement (registration) with positioning of devices
The overall picture is that where we are in the end, we're going to make specific shapes that will bind to specific sticky patches. Then later we'll add the components that will assemble on top of the DNA origami. So we won't have problems with the nanotubes causing the origami to aggregate. We won't have to worry about drawing these crazy roads down to the devices with microscopy - we could build it in a very standard way.
- IBM Hung /Cha. Now at UCSD
People have extended this process, and people at UCSD have already put gold nanoparticles on these triangles. Beautiful orientation. We're actually beginning to organize little nanodevices this way using DNA origami.
- [three shapes - rectangle, smiley, triangle]
I would ask - what makes DNA helices come together. Ralph? Ralph: hydrogen bonds. That's wrong. Not that Ralph is wrong, but it turns out to be wrong. In the textbooks they tell you the major reason. it's not hydrogren bonds. The facility with which he said hydrogren bonds - I wanted to bring this out, a lack of understanding on the part of professional scientists that we don't really understand these molecules well enough to engineer with them. We've known that hydrogen bonds weren't major for hybridization for decades, but people don't keep that in their working memory.

- [three shapes - rectangle, smiley, triangle with photos]
The ends of the helices in the triangles are hidden in the corners. The ends are strick for each other, and that's the primary force that causes them to hybridize. 75% of the forces that bring DNA together are the lateral forces between the bases.
- Base Stacking
People argue about exactly what the nature of the interaction is - dipole, van der Waals - but we can measure it. The edge of a rectangle will stick very strongly to another DNA helix. The hydrogen bonding makes the specificity. If they can't hydrogen bond, it won't be able to stack.
- a b c d
It turns out, we've learned how to master this force. If you have a bunch of helicies they can click together.
- [lots of skipped slides]
- Triangles, one broken 
Here is a DNA origami angle. It has a specific shape on it. The only thing that's holding them together are these stacking interactions.

DNA origami are not something we can simulate. We got to them by trial and error and by refining our intuitive model of what DNA can do. By adding stacking interactions we refine it even more. We can hopefully even mke machines parts. Things that slide. Maybe look a little like Merkle and Freitas machines. But we can't, from first principles, get to a predictive situation. No program can predict whether a long strand and a bunch of staples will fold. 

We can build things we don't understand.

The best molecular modeling guys in the world can't help me do my job better. Instead, I'm helping them calibrate their models. That's probably going to be the situation for 10 or 20 years. The simulations are not capturing the fundamental interactions. Not to say anything bad about simulation, but that's how far behind the curve we are.

- Growth of design complexity
We have our own Moore's law - 50 labs pursuing this now, size of structures doubles exponentially. 
- Before I die (again)
\"I'm going to die, probably within 1.5 billion seconds.\"
Before I die I'd like to see all the stuff [from list earlier]. But I won't. We'll have molecular manufacturing. Smalley is wrong. But we won't use DNA origami. Anything you see or think of today will be replaced dozens of times in the next decades. If I draw a picture of gears, or Ralph does - we're not going to build any of that in the future. We'll have to completely reimagine as we learn more. That's one of my main messages. We can't predict any of this - even if you only use the things you understand best, you're still going to get bitten in the butt when you go in the lab. 
- Before I die (3)
We have all these exponential trends, but....I saw this talk that said protein folding would be solved by faster computers. But it's not. We can only do small perturbations. De novo protein designs - only two ever, and one was a fraud. All these things will come to pass, but maybe our grandchildren will see them. We want to figure out how to accelerate. The way to do that is to maintain civilization, give to science, get your hands dirty in the lab. DON'T GIVE BUILDINGS. Endow faculty, graduate students, specify they have fellowships for 5-6 years. There are a number of structural things we can do. I don't think I'm just blind because I'm in the trenches. We just don't understand things well enough. But I want to see it happen.

- Some difficulties
Don't go watch world cup right now.
- What we can do to accelerate progress

Wish we were going 10x faster.

Bryce: Population genomics.
To what extent, if that field grows, is it competing?

No.

David R: Speed to decode DNA underestimated due to things OUTSIDE field. Maybe new tools would help you accelerate?

Absolutely yes. Every few years someone comes out of woodwork and gives us something new. Even that is not enough. Sequencing, ... people were blind? Actually turned out to be easier problem.

Those are singular things. Typically they have to do with bits. \"Easy\"
Some of those underestimating things weren't engineers.
Can differentiate between easy and hard.

Merkle: Anything to do with bits is easy.

David H: DNA - 4 blocks. What about other non-organic building blocks?

Funny. Feynman prize winner. Does great stuff, but he didn't get tenure.
Thing is - a holy grail. Novel chemistries to compete with DNA. 20-30-40 year challenge to come up with polymer.
DNA and RNA are not interesting electronically.
People make little hetero polymers.
It would take an effort on the scale of what we've already had with DNA.
People want to do that.

Chiara: With DNA origimami - build circuit.

Encode - ACGT and compute with that. DNA computing field:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DNA_computing
Haven't figured out way for it to scale yet.

Second distinct thing. Organize things like carbon nanotubes. Gold for optics. Organize a more conventional computer. 

[12:42] more questions poll

Q: Emoticons?

Nice dolphins. Then dolphins together. Then university changed logo.

3D trojan horse.

Reason I did map of Americas. Wanted to do something more universal (rather than just a flag, say).

12:44 [applause]

Em: Reminder - workshop this afternoon not in 583C, but outside by building 20.

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Link to backchan.nl for questions:
http://singularity.backchan.nl/meetings/view/142 First speaker
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"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul2-PLE
"Friday 
7/2/2010 
11:30-12:30 
Brad Templeton/Lauren Gelman 
PLE CL Introduction to Policy Law and Ethics

Slides: http://bit.ly/cYFnrT
Audio: http://bit.ly/cblVOU

Kathryn will review later looking for any [ref] markers--She and TFs will fill these in with references, but all are welcome (encouraged) to add references / put in as many details as available.

Try backchan.nl here: http://singularity.backchan.nl/meetings/view/124

Computers let you do a million times for the same cost of doing something once.
Good useful things have become scalable.
Problem is, bad things can scale as well.
In old days, things didn't scale that way.
History of Law - been attempt to stop evil from scaling.
We are leaving laptops on desks because only a few theives around.
Most people mostly want to live honestly.
No need for guards.
Number of bad actors are small.
With scalability - one bad actor can be multiplied by a million times.
One spammer ...
We can also overreact. Go nuts. Try to lock down society because of fear.
Other ways to scale:
Recruit army
Organized crime
Corporation - sometimes good, sometimes bad vision.
Computers allow putting bad intent out in world
botnet
attacks
the great firewall of China - only possible in part due to scalability
Everything is copyable.

I forgot to do something. I talk very quickly.
Don't feel rude if you want to hold up a yellow card.
I want you to understand this material.

Our challenge is to find some way to fight it but NOT give up our values.
Risk of giving up, due to fear, of giving up advantages.

Specific challenges:
Inside other tracks, they will give you some material.
Things that can go wrong, what people will do, how to protect freedom.

One thing at EFF - intellectural property. We will give you 3 hours on this later in program.
Changes in copyability have caused rebirth in music and movie industries.
Book industry is heading into that now.
Design is going to be copyable. 3D printers - can copy shapes. Nanotechnology - nano forges - at very fine structural level. Starship Enterprise level within your lifetimes.
Imagine a Napster for Cars. Download this Corvette ... it's cool.
Issues that tore up music industry. Still selling more product.
Avatar - brought in 2 bn [ref]
Information/design can become abundant. 
Also concerned about economy of creativity.
People who make money.
People who do expensive creative works.
Find that, without locking down technology.

If you accept possibility of human minds being copyable, ethics is fascinating.
Society definitely not ready for this.
What will be economically worthwhile?
What will be protected?
Via secrecy? Harder and harder in a world where nanobots can do complete reverse engineering.
Materials - some raw materials may be particularly valuable.

Q: List - replication / credibilty? Personal services?

By location, certain places will be cool.
As Lex Luther says: beachfront property might be valuable. Dubai had idea to create more beachfront property.
There will cool places.
Personal services.
Perhaps AIs will do services - even if you can get any physical object you will want to be waited on hand and foot.
We have an affinity for originials - as apart from an absolutely nano-level copy.
Part of a general value that is an aesthetic.

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whuffie http://www.thewhuffiebank.org/]

Lauren: Actions no longer attached to body.
Opens up question of whether reputation will be attached to you, have multiple reputations.
Do we value more the ability to be silly in college - or the opportunity to value of who somebody is over who they have been over time.

Q: About previous slide. What will be valued? or what will be valuable?
If material things become abundant.
Q: Value in the sense of scarcity and economic exchange.
Economic value. Right. Money as a proxy for those things.
Not what people will value in a more spiritual sense.

L: Can add power.

I like to think people think of power as a means. Some think of it as an end.
that is a \"spiritual\" value.

IP, first thing on list.
Once mfg goods are not scarce, they will want a system to control digital files.
DRM - Digital Rights Management (aka Digital Restriction Management by critics)
Can be sold without allowing multiple copies.
Trusted Computing
both light and dark sides. May make system trusted not only by you but by Microsoft.
Obeys you or betrays you.
If someone infringes movie copyright 3 times, person can get kicked off the internet.
Later generations would think of getting kicked off the internet like not being allowed to walk down the street -- pretty severe.

We've seen effort, basically, for tiny Hollywood to control vast SiliconValley.
$$$ value of entertainment is small relative to computer industry.
Yet, they say computers should be architected to our standards.
\"Change your technology to protect our old industry.\"
Clatyon [ref]
They think of anything. We can't let design of new technologies controlled by old industries.
You will see other tech that haave various forces, stak holders, that are oushing the alw, force these people to change their tech so that it will not iunerupt our industry, I understand, people who have been faced with these technologies I sympathize, but the reality we cannot allow our tech to be influenced by old industries
Patents.
Not all patents are wrong.
Hardware and software are the same.
Explosion - immense number. Many not good for society.
Cause fo this explosion - immense number of problems to solve.
Problem was new. They were first. Answer not that hard.
On-click shopping. Amazon holds this patent.
Not a hard answer, the question was new.
Patent office said, \"Is this novel\" Yes.

One thing about patents that I think is important
We've seen in patents an explosion, many of them bad and not even good for society, what we see now are more tech for problems, the problems are new but the answers are easy, we should push patents to be new answers to old questions

New answers to hard questions. Those deserve patents.

Different answers to what do you do to get money for creative work when anyone can copy.

Government pays everyone to be creative. Canada.
Get over it - no business will get copyright protection.
Micropayments - paypal but at 1/10th of a cent. Most people honest.
Some say iTune story, 99 cent songs.

Microrefunds - all with money back guarantee. Default is to pay, exception/explicit act is to get refund.

Trust public to be good. Symbol \"I'm a good guy who pays for bands.\" Tip jars.
Shareware. Voluntary payment.
You can use it for free, but it asks you to pay to register.

Patronage - used to be way - Mozart of something - you got a patron who handed over a chunk of change. Give wealth of creative out? Another question.

Sell tie-ins. Movies - Star Wars/Return of the Jedi - picked up extra money.

Shakespeare in Love -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shakespeare_in_Love
The producer at the globe theatre says, \"I don't know, it will work out, it's a mystery\"

Why do we care about protecting the stuff that people create?

12:15

Banning Genetic Discrimination
Henry T. Greely, J.D.
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/353/9/865

Transhumanism
- life extension vs. \"necrophilia\" those who embrace death / after life

Think like a dinosaur [ref]

AGI
- slavery? Will we give rights to machines? Will they have possesions? Will/should we pause them?
Genero Sapiens - robot, perhaps cyborg
Homo Sapiens Effictus - clone

Is simulated water wet? Does chess computer simulate playing chess?

Dust [ref]

Will our tech betray us?
Will we build on tech that spies on us and invades our privacy

If you go to a priest who takes your confession, law says priest can't divuldge that info because if it wasn't private for priests, lawyers, doctors then they could not perform their job to the best of their abilities.
Why can't we have tech that does the same?

[end of presentation]
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"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul8-MED
"7/8/2010 
Thursday 
9:00 - 10:00 am 
MED CL4 Neuroscience Overview and Brain Scanning Technology 
Chris deCharms
Email: deCharms@gmail.com
Slides:

10:15 \u2013 11:15 am 
MED CL5 Neuroprosthesis & Evolving Neuro-Technologies (Chris DeCharms)
Slides:

11:30 \u2013 12:30 pm 
MED CL3 Personalized Medicine and the Experimental Man (David Ewing Duncan)
Slides:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Ewing_Duncan
http://experimentalman.com/

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9:16 Keith: Medicine Track Day.
Couple of talks by DeCharms, then Duncan.
Personalized man.
Shorter lunch. 583C presentation by Balinski - world class animations.
Afternoon workshop of 8 different surgery, opthomology, critical care.
MS Skinput.
First two hours DeCharms.
Real time imaging of the brain. Book with Dali Lama.
Innovate work at Omneron? http://Omneuron.com

Chris: Great to be here.
Talking about one of my favorite subject.
Who we are through the brain.
Movie - this is what it used to look like.
Take a space ship, inject it into the bloodstream. Science fiction.
Today, my colleague Peter - video of us actually entering his brain non-invasively.
Those are actual images.

Start out with real time imaging experiment in your own brain.
[exercise with closed eyes - opening is \"reboot\"]
9:27
Changes over your careers and our lifetimes.
I welcome questions as you have them. So many, we could spend all the time talking.
Ask burning questions, hold others.
What are the big questions of the brain,
we often hear about what we know.
-
Here are the open areas:
How do we choose the actions we take?
Just gave an exercise on consciousness.
How is that possible.
We're just at the cusp of having technologies to answer that for the first time.
We can make models.
We had to have a model of the past.
Where does that reside?
1000s of research papers on how you store the image of this room in your brain -- open topic.
How do we learn new skills? Still don't fundamentally know.
How is the brain laid out. Lot more information on that.
How do we use language in cognition. Despite tremendous progress, not solved.

How is it that we experience, touch, taste, smell.
When someone at cocktail party tells you about your reptile brain,
we don't understand how, when you open your eyes, ... this is beyond us.

Why do you spend 4-6-8 hours a day sleeping?
How do we make executive plans?

Key area for final talk - how are diseases mediated?
Everyone here has been touched.
1/3 to 1/2 of people in world
Nervous system has vulnerabilities.
-
When we can control mind/brain.
Imagine you could look inside your own brain and control love, free will ....
These exist in technology.
Reach in, 10 years from now, and fundmentally tune.
That is the promise of neurotechnology
I'm going to talk later on about changing the brain fundamentally.
Conversation about uploading brain to other systems.
We'll be living in our natural brains,
having our own subjective experience.
What technology and learning can help us to improve and regulate this system that creates who we are.
If we could do that, think of the diseases we could control
-
- Single Trial Learning: Forever Changed [black spots - looks like it has dog in it, sort of]
http://i234.photobucket.com/albums/ee73/tricks-and-illusions/dalmatian-illusion.jpg
For those who have not seen this before
Studies with this particular image, decades later, you are going to see this dog.
Reason I point this out - your nervous system is fundamentally a sponge.
A change you can absorb immediately.
-
Another definition of what the singularity is.
Duality
What we call the Mind / What we call the Brain
Experience = Neurophysiology
Psychophysics Brain Science 
Tools are trying to find the transfer relations between these two worlds.
How functions of brain ARE the mind.
Underpins what the Singularity is. Bridging gap between mind and experience and physically embodied world.

- Consciousness doesn't have a place in the brain
No local lession can take out consciousness.
Others can take out vision, or hearing 
Much more complex than that.
One of the things happening in brain - new vista for cartography.
Mass of wires, connections, different from one to the next.
Fortunately, not how the system works.
Cartography - we now know what parts are involved in executive choices.
Still wide stretches - terra incognita - we are trying to understand.

Size of a large grapefruit. Hunk of meat. 2% of body mass. 20% of body's energy.
Holding one in your hand, it is amazing to think they held someone's entire life.

- Brain organization
Map to physical systems
- 2
Vision in the back.
Language happens here. Flipped left/right depending on handedness.
Touch happens on the top center of the brain
- Brain: Receptive Language
So let's go through some examples:
As Groucho Marx showed: 
Time flies like an arrow.
Fruit flies like a banana.
-
She sells sea shells by the sea shore.
Fortunate, because the brain is mapped, we have a chance of understanding it.
Great individual differences, but similar structures.
- basis of perception
This is our I/O system
when i reach out and touch something
1000s and millions of receptors - particularly in my fingers which have receptive fields.
Signal goes up arm into cortex.
Pay attention, if you bang foot hard. You see it happen immediately and say, \"This is going to hurt.\"
It takes about a second or two then you get wave, \"Wow, this really does hurt.\"
Conduction delay of this wire.
Some are fast. Later - the ones that make you go \"Uuuugh\"
So watch next time you bang your foot.
Reason you go \"Oh man\" when you bang your thumb - [you shake your hand] - the movement sense overwhelms the pain signal. That's why you do it.

- sensory maps
Where signals come from. Mapped out based on way we were evolved to be in relation to the ground.
The so-called sensory humunculis?
On map of US. Same physical relationship
spatial isometry
Parts of brain that allow you to sense the world - 
Areas for fingers are far from areas for toes.
Not true representations of true experience, but depend on what you have used.
On physical cortical surface, more surface on fingers, lips and tongue.
System designed for learning - give you a personal evolution.
Can take place over your lifetime.
Nervous system adapts to what you need from it.
If you use your hands a lot, the neurosystem devotes more and more to your hands.
Every ti
Homunculus shows relatively large hands, tongue, and lips, body parts are sized in relation to their number of nerve endings
This is a wiring diagram from several years ago.
It is organized, these are cortical areas, mostly, that produce our experience.
Visual input goes through thalmus, through back of head, and these areas represent very fine details. 
Areas here aggregate to create more complex constructs.
If it moves from area to the next -> motion.
Regions like this give us color.
Higher regions extract even more complex features.
Neurons respond to wider areas of space, more complex areas
More conceptually complex kinds of information.
One area responds to faces, perhaps even one particular face.
You are tuning these neurons to have finer and finer perception.
This allows you to have very different experiences.
Pianist at SF Symphony will have a different experience than novice.
If you listen to a language that is not your own,
there are many sounds you simply cannot hear.
That is a process you can learn.
The learning process is greatly accelerated when you are younger.

So, key question: maps and the brain - where is this all going?
Sooner or later, you control actions.
Where will you direct gaze.
Where will you look.
Produces your next input, what you are going to know.
How is it - become output information.
Leading the decision you make.
Where was the YOU in there?
Where, in this processing diagram, was YOU?
- computational network models
Brain is not a neural network model, it is a neural network.
Better and better models, clearer views of how the brain works.
Model brain areas
Inputs go up to more nodes
Will mimic simple or increasingly complex behaviours.
-
Fundamental relation between the two.
Where conscious experience comes from is key.
Where do the decisions get made? 
How do you choose muffin vs apple. We have lots of information about it.
Fundamental challenge that we as a species face.

Read book.
- Models for Brain Science.
Rules from vision may apply across to tactile system.
Cell in retina - see light/dark - a receptive field, little spot the cell responds from.
Allows you to form screen - with pixels - dozens of little movie screens in the 
back of you head. 
One screen - movement
Another screen - colors in my shirt
Abstracting information of the world.
Multiple copies wouldn't help. Why not just have one.
Pull information out and learn how to use it.
Neuron senses brightness in center and surround.
Selecting for a particular kind of information - contrast.
If you line up a bunch of these, you get an edge detector.
Responds to lightness near darkness. The lines of the door.
Abstract shapes.
That's in space. Same principle applies in time.
Constant stimuli don't produce constant experiences 
If you get something you love, you'll have habituation.
Take drugs - you'll need more.
Many aspects, starting with single cells - constant stimulus has strong initial response,
over a short period of time response gets smaller.
Think of edge detection - looking for transitions. We need to look for change, 
things that are happening.
you become visiually blind to static.
Area you are not looking at can change and you never notice.
What you are \"seeing\" is reconstruction of world. Used by magicians.

- Binary Spike Coding
Binary code.
Single neuron - 5 microns. Stick tiny wire in there.
Stimulus goes from 0 to 1.
Neuron fires discrete, binary outputs.
Continuous signal - no, digital action potentials which propagate on.
Input areas from other neurons.
Typically single output area - decides how many action potentials to fire.
- Hwo do we \"de-code\"
Really exciting
Rate coding / intensity
Spatial coding
overlapping/temportal

So what are the candidates for this code. Despite 1000s of papers.
Rate of 1000s or millions of neurons firing?

Another is WHERE the action takes place. Spatial component relating to fingers.

Overlapped - precise temporal register with one another. Symphony is about relationship of notes, one to another. Time of action potentials to try to code - most obvious in auditory system. Precise temporal qualities - you'll get synchrony.

- Single Unit of Brain
Filled with dye.
Present real challenge to extract information.
May be bouncing while you try to record from it.
Communicate via chemical signal.
channels turn this back to an electrical signal.
All happens incredibly quickly.
Bang hand - milliseconds later you feel it.
Remarkably slow from computational standpoint.
Nervous system uses parallel billions of neurons
Serial computers have only single processor, but much faster.

- Inhibitory and modulatory synaptic transmission
One of the biggest experiences you can have - get things out of whack.
Serotonin will fundamentally transform your experience.
-
-
We often think of high information content signals. Read out entire memories.
Put in computer. Transfer to another person.
Wouldn't that be fantastic .
Something much nearer term.
Lower information density signals.
Trying to understand how read out or written is daunting.
Simpler kinds of information we could read out - just a few bits.
A person's level of pain.
Low dimensionality problem.
Tell from 1 to 16.
Would help to treat that person.

Challenge, much closer to realization.
Not entire experience. Tremendous potential from low infromation density signals.
-
Another important topic: sleep.

Why about 1/3 of our time in this distinct patterns. [Zzzzz]
Other instances where people can do without sleep.
We have only modest hypotheses for what it is for.
-
Peripheral nervous system.
Sympathetic and para-sym: \"rest and digest\"
- One thing everybody knows: 5% use
You only use about 10% of it - urban legend.
Experiment by Lashly in 1950s. Errors made by rats in a maze.
You can lession large parts of brain. Rat still makes it through maze.
Does tell you about redundancey.
Your survival depends on partial injury being survivable.
You can recover lost function.
Adaptability - brain can evolve.
Does not tell you you only use 10% of brain.

Train as athlete. You still use your entire body every day.
- Pioneers
Question: where will we go?
Pioneering effort.
We can lead.
An adventure that fundamentally impacts who we will be
Of great challenges of humankind
experiences
enhanced performance
disease

Get up and stretch. Move around. Then 5 min of questions.
10:16
Q: Dmitry: In mapping, correspondence. What happens?
Can we single out the response of brain region to get feedback for artificial?

Lose limb? Happens a lot in war. Nervous system responds.
Part not getting input.
System tries to adapt itself. Make that hardware useful.
Neural tissue is redeployed - often to adjacent areas.
One unfortunate consequence is phantom limb pain.
Suffering from pain from limb that does not exist.
Debilitating.
Makes people feel like they are going crazy.
Aberant behavior in nervous system.
It turns up gain - so it starts to respond even when there is no stimulus [like feedback in a speaker]
Can the nervous system be trained.
When successful, they can perceive the limb getting smaller and smaller until it goes away.

Second question - how can we listen in through brain interfaces, try to read. Will talk about this in the second talk. Brings together areas I am raising.

Q: Buddhism.

Guys that spend years in caves doing neurotechnology experiments on themselves.
Quite striking results. Change their own experience of life.
My own interest - different perspectives on brain.
As we truly understand, perspectives will come together.
Western/Eastern - in some sense the same?
Perhaps very different. Fascinating for me, not \"one big happy family\" but
how can we learn things from introspective traditions.
How can the introspective traditions learn from Western views.

Q: David A: Consciousness. Van Signal?'s work consciousness rooted in the community.
Community gives shape to consciousness.

Evolving field of social cognition. People realizing neuro- cog sci- not how real world works.
Much ofwhat we do is about building cultures.
We are staring to have powerful insights.
Free will shaped by culture.
Very broad field.
Will be critical area for future work.
We need to understand how we live our lives.

Q: David H: Locations - challenges to growing neural tissue in the lab. Enough cells with enough connections. What more complexity is there?

Very complex topic. Two sides. Technical/Conceptual. Technically, people have been growing single, then groups, neural nets, recording actions. See how these little systems code. Grow pieces. Connect them to computers. Do useful things with them.

More recently, grow small mimics of small pieces of the brain. on the order of a couple of mm.
What are the limits to being able to grow a whole brain.
Use the chemicals to teach the cells where to go and with whom they should connect.
Wire up and precisely place.
We don't know how to reproduce that in the lab.
Connect in the right ways.
Getting better and better. That is the fundamental step.

Conceptually, where are these efforts going. In petri dish and in the computer.
Synthetic models - someday soon of the entire brain.
Which is going to come first - the model or understanding.
If you produce model which runs 100 times faster - what is that model going to be able to do.
If it had no history. Same experience. In what sense is that going to be like a human brain.
Conceptually easier to have model of brain, but not behaviors of real brain.
How can brain evolve to have those behaviors.
Succcess is when they produce complex behaviors.

Tony: Is our sophistication in language tied to thinking? Does using a \"foreign\" language make us less capable?

4 out of 5 scientists don't believe the other scientists.
I'm not going to attempt that one. Cog Sci.
Varies across individuals.
Has had tremendous study.

Yara: Learning slows as we age. Decrease in quality of things learned?

News isn't good.
Good news: used to be childhood plasticity ONLY. No new neurons. Can change quite a bit.
Bad news: ability to learn is dramatically decreased. Language. After early 20s, have accent. Generalizes to many types of learning:
Other distrubing news: get cooking Cog capacity declines with each decade.
IQ
Sensory reception
Plot as normal distribution - if you start above mean today, you will lose a standard deviation each decade (couple decades) from 20's on. 
People get better at spotting patterns. They can have judgement that a younger person cannot.
Nervous becomes worse and worse at some skills, but better at specializations.
Take on new kinds of learning.
Keeps your system healthy. Being developed as a technology.

10:37
Presentation you may have seen.
Why to take on this challenge.
One of great challenges.
Go back to prior challenge. Speech that launched previous technological effort.
Very inspiring.
Think about this.
Go within ourselves and change who we are.
[Kennedy Rice Univesity - Sept 12 1962]
\"We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win\"

Led us to leave this planet for the first time to go out. What will it take to go in.
Overcome the challenges that prevent us from changing all aspects of our reality.
This organ produces all our experiences.
If we pioneer our experience there, ...
- Worldwide human disease burden (most affected at top)
Addiction
Anxiety
Obesity
Chronic pain
Depressive Disorders
Sleep Disorders
Hearing loss
attention disorders
alzheimer's
Stroke
Epilepsy
Vision
Schizophrenia & Psychosis
Parkinson's

- Pharmaceutical industry runs in hundreds of billions of dollars to combat these disorders
- Aging Population
- Growth in Neurotechnology patents
- FDA regulatory process
NOT easy
Tremendous challenge.
New drug typically costs $1 bn to bring to market.
Most fail early. Some fail late. $100 m cost. 
- Neurodevice markets
Prothetics
Stimulation
Surgery
...
- Interfacing to nervous system
Reading
fMRI [ref]
MEG [ref]
Writing/Stimulation
TMS [ref]

- Cochlear implant
Direct stimulation - 100,000 people can use.
Doesn't always work, but has really changed lives.
- Deep Brain Stimulation
Device like a pacemaker
Tracks to target - about 1 mm in size - 
Challenge, if you hit a blood vessel, fatality.
- DBS
Promise for what intervention can do.
Remember, only stimulation. Turns up dial. Low bandwidth signal.
Not complex.
[video: Before: man with twtich. After: much more normal. \"Complete healing\"
Man shaking. Turns off. Becomes normal]
[applause]
Disorders like this could impact 1/3 of you. Especially later in life.

- Vagus Nerve
You can disrupt epilepsy
- Robotic radiosurgery
Automotive robot adapted to brain surgery.
Very precise movement around patient.
Precisely oriented radiation.
-
Navigate precisely in brain.
MRI registred with surgical device.
- Neuroplasticity-based training
Educational software
Rosetta Stone.
Fast ForWord
Brain Age2
PositScience - Reversal of Age-Related Decline
Moving in direction of disease intervention.
Imagine kind of plasticity a serious disease brings to system.
Use own mechanisms to heal.
- INVESTIGATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES
- Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation
Large stimulator through skull.
Done for decades.
Localized stimulation. Useful for activation. Up-regulate areas related to depression.
- Retinal Implant.
Implant pixels to reproduce visual scenes. As done with cochlear implant.
Harder since retina moves around.
Great interest.
On unmoving retina, possible now.
- Brain Computer Interface - Cyberkinetics
Video to read out from brain, control device.
First attempt to directly link from cortex.
[Video: Paralyzed from stab wound. Implant the size of dime.
Playing video game.
Just by thinking.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJJPbpHoPWo&feature=related
open/close robotic hand]
- Brain-based game controllers?
NeuroSky
Examples you saw were quite simple. Just left/right.
Long way from complex motions.
Dramatic progress for reading out complex information.
Nervous system learns how to use the device.
Give people a new ability and the nervous system can learn how to interface with it.
[using voice recognition is like this too - JG]
Measurements of EMG - scalp muscles - used in game controllers.
http://www.neurosky.com/ devoloper tool using eye blink detection
Not high bit rate brain feeds.
- present day nanobot. 
- Reversible regional modulation via Ultrasound
Spatially precise
- 690 KHz ultrasound transducer
Just the way you can focus ultrasound probe to scan fetus, you can produce a 
tightly focused activation in the brain of -- in this case -- a rodent.
- fMRI-based Brain Reading Today
Quite incredible.
Colleagues at ATR in Japan.
Signals from awake human. Stimuli on screen, read out from visual system what 
the visual system saw. Reading the signal out of their mind.
Using sofware to reconstruct what they were experiencing.
They are reading the maps in the back of the head.
Point is - there is a tremendous density.
Different from reading visual mental imagery - 
http://www.neuroinformatics2010.org/speakers/yukiyasu-kamitani
http://www.tedhuntington.com/neuron_images_from_brain_using_MRI.jpg

- Real time brain imaging video
Come back to reading low information density content.
Suppose you have debilitating pain.
Probable treatment is a piece of paper - how much pain: mark with pencil 0 to 10
Subjective measure.
What does it mean for my pain to be a 2 versus and 8.
Suppose we could read out objectively.
What if we could read out low density, but very important level of pain.
Depression - how deep is it?
Strong reason to look at low information. Get 5 to 10 bits. Will be transformational.

Are you telling the truth?
What if you could get a reliable answer.
Would not to have judges and juries.
What truth is can be very complex.. But important question:
Imagine you could get that low information density out.

Have you seen this crime scene or not?
Could transform culture.

Q: Bryce/LA: To what extent does finding pain signals depend on empirical or conceptual question. Philosopher of mind perspective.

Many philosophers of the future would agree.

Great lead in. We are trying to read out pain and get people to control it.
Philosophical debate will be outrun by technology.
Elan Vital - now covered by life science.

Let me show you examples coming from Menlo Park.
Do real time brain scanning on yourselves.

- Descartes
Introspection
Imagine looking at the same time at the hardware.
Your experience and objective measurements.

Conduct interaction with patient. 
Both therapist and patient could see changes in brain.
fMRI - temporal resolution is a second or two or three.
Spatial resolution is high.
- 
-
[video: real time brain imaging]
-
May supplant
couch
pills
knife
-
If you can see these patterns, use mimicry to learn them.
-
[video: read brain in real time - visualization of pain]
Produce or inhibit - can they take control of the dial?
Imagine the kinds of things you could take control of.
Augment your performance.

Reason I use space analogy - we will be able to go into our own minds.

Map onto VR fires.

Try to actually control pain. Takes an end-run around the philosophy.
-RTFMRI Training
Two questions: can they learn to control area of own brain?
Before, couldn't mimic.
Now put on scanner.
Can you or can you cannot?
Answer is: people CAN learn.
Increasing levels - better and better - like brain pushups.
Put these people in pain, asked how much it hurt.
Answer: experience of pain changes in closely corresponding way.

Tried to convince ourselves the patients weren't just telling us what we wanted to hear.

- Can a person learn to mimic complex brain states?

Real inspiration to leave you with. We will be pioneers into journey.
I look forward to sharing that dream with you all.
11:25
Derek: Your fMRI setup. Cost of machines are in millions?

They are.
We hope and anticipate costs will come down dramatically.
A couple decades from now, cheaper.
We are the Mars lander.

Additionally, in coming years, cost is justified given promise of changes you could produce.

About 2/3rds of pain patients never find care. Morphine becomes less and less effective over time and has side effects.

Rand: Symbols. When someone sees an \"N\" do they see the letter?

Experimental answer. Looking at early visual areas. Close to physical stimulus.
Will look like details of what was seen.
That \"N\" looked like a horseshoe.

Higher processing areas, more abstract.
As we read out those more complex areas, what does it mean?
You have to understand the code. What is the meaning of the code?
Code reader becomes more complex.
An \"N\" for an English reader may be different from \"N\" for Arabic reader.

Meaning is transfered through communication.
Transformation has to happen between person whose brain is being read and the perspective of another person.

Q: Chiara: $300 m health issue in US. Society makes problem? Much more worry than in developing country?

Book: Addiction broadly. Human causes. Multifacted causes. Why do cultural influences matter? In the realm of the hungry ghosts.

Eric: Similar perspective. Italian. Leave pain out. Rest, the majority, are side effect of societal development. How much do we want to go downstream, or go upstream and how to avoid them. Mechanisms in modern society cause those diseases? Were they there centuries ago. Too much informatoin. Chemicals circulating.
Really about thinkg down or upstream? Not negating your work on pain.

Fascinating question. Panel on NIH. Deeply rooted in our culture and all cultures - but differentially. Different errors of the system.
Disease pattern varies across culture. Different ratios.
Would raise - how to get best leverage to have positive impacts.
How to most positively impact the most people.
My MO (modus operandi)

Dramatic possibilities to use our understading of the nervous system to impact society.

Example: create simulated versions - virtual worlds - helping people to become better.
Positive influences on person. 
Positive role models. Imagine virtual world where all your influences are positive.
could change emotional tone.
Shary: fMRI for resolution. Home use technologies available? DIY way? For depression? concentration?

For home use, limited. Most common by far is EEG.
Senensors on the head. Measure brainwaves. 
This training is effective for some things. Not others.
Arousal - Alpha . When you open eyes, you will get different levels.
Sleep - different level.
Broadly, learning to control those. You can do at home with some care.
Relatively tricky. Many measuring muscles, not brain.
Tricky to treat depression.
EEG - ADD/ ADHD work.
Jury still out on depression.
For: are specific enough to learn how to avoid
Against: no signal.

Brain hardward works in mm to cm. While EEG measures \"quadrants\" of brain.
Average over that kind of area, no resolution for control.

Other technologies.
Infrared light shining through skull. Helmet of these. Some spatial organization.
Measure blood flow.
Real problem with hair ... [small chuckle]

Don't see this at low price point any time soon.

Erez: Example of person getting hand smashed and shaking it.
Any approach for stimulating for obesity - just 

\"step on the other foot\"

So, there are a variety of ways:
Acute / Chronic.

One kind of stimulus to remove negative aspects of another.

Yes in short term. You can distract yourself. If suffering from pain, and someone yells \"FIRE\" you will not experience much pain on the way out.
Pain turned off in certain situations.
Can turn down response - briefly.
Don't work well long term.

Are treatments based on that.
11:47 [applause]

Interesting Links

Neuroinformatics:http://www.neuroinformatics2010.org/speakers/yukiyasu-kamitani

Chris deCharms TED Talk:http://www.omneuron.com/technology2.htm

11:57 
Personalized Medicine and the Experimental Man (David Ewing Duncan)
http://davidewingduncan.com

- The Experimental Man Project
http://experimentalman.com

Enthusiam still here. Great.
Here to tell you about the future.
I'm not a scientist, expert at neuroscience.
I'm the everyman. Journalist.
Set out to try to figure out lot of what you are learning about - what does it mean for us?
About me.
But about each of us
- ? [huge que question mark]
I want to ask questions. Ready?
- Have you had a genetic test?
At NIH, 250 geneticists - not a single one of them had.
- Have you had a machine read your mind?
- How long do you want to live?
I've asked 10,000s of people.
Three possible choices: 80 / 120 / 150
[[lots want to live to 150]
- Age of Personalized Health
Little clues telling you about your future health.
- Questions to ponder
- How close are we to true personalized HC?
- How can we accelerate the process?
I took all these tests, as a sceptic. I discovered we are far closer to many of these being available. 
- How does a
....
....
...
- \"Recreational\" and \"Preliminary\"
Tie to more recent ancestors. As soon as I posted my information, I had a woman call me \"Hey Cousin\"
Bitter Taste gene - pretty harmless, fun test
Intelligence - no test. But ChiChinese are working on it. Taboo for most people ethically.
Gene only predicts 3IQ points.
Herion - 200 people in Germany. Scan genome to see if statistically there are markers.
Such a small group, probably doesn't matter.
Longevity - small group
- Favorite Genetic Marker
If I had a cup of coffee, I'd pause dramatically and sip from it.
- Chemical Report Card
The dose makes the poison.
- Pesticides (DDT)
Grew up in Kansas.
I was exposed to DDT. One of those organo-phosphates. Declining in the environment now.
Each has a half-life.
I still have on board a fairly high level.
One story - once a year they would spray for mosquitos. Big cloud behind cloud.
We would ride our bikes through this cloud.

- Mercury and me
Gets inside us. Always has in small quantities.
Main source now - coal burning power plants -> fish.
Satellite image from China.
Can see a cloud of pollutants coming across the Pacific. 
NASA image.
Mercury floating from increase in industry in China.
As this goes across the Pacific, rains on ocean, bioaccumulation in fish.
What happens when I eat large fish?
Caught a halibut and went to market and bought swordfish.
Ate one for lunch, the other for dinner.
Before: 4 parts per billion.
After: 13 ppb. Rather dramatic increase.
-
Did not stop there. In interest in trying to find out what was going on,
did \"Envirogenomics\" screen.
Genetic sensitivity:
Particular codes that suggest you are high risk.

Slightly elevated risk of this Hg gene.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercury_(element)

- Brain
Kind of spooky the first time you look at your own brain.
Depiction of my brain with the top off.
- Structural MRI
Look at structure to see if it is healthy.
Alzheimers test.
Can detect before symptoms. 
Although incredibly expensive, this is the future.
Come up with robust algorithms.
- fMRI
measures blood flow.
View images.
Tested for impulsiveness, risk-taking ...
One guy could tell whether you are Dem or Repub.
Love/Memory
- Fear/Anxiety
Flash lion in front of you. 
in fMRI it activates fear.
Shown subliminally.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subliminal_stimuli

- Fear and Axiety
These are the parts of the brain that light up.
- [daisy slide]
This is what my brain did. 
Calming effect. Decision making part of your brain has a conversation with the older part of your brain and says, \"Chill out\"
Aside: I have anxiety disorder running through my mother's family.
- My Brain Outs Me
Fun series at NYU on neuroeconomics.
Paul Glimshire?
Stock traders can't account for irrationality.
Stick traders in fMRI - not sure they found much.
I had a clicker. Howmuch I liked product.
Pan's Labarynth movie.
My brain loved Dodgeball movie
Kiterunner second.
Dreamgirls was up there [laughter]

- Consumer Neurology?
Brain Age [ref]
Age 25 (sober) 37 after 2 glasses of wine
Sleep Tests [ref]
electrode. Feeds into laptop. Feeds to their system

- BODY 
Finally.
this is where we tie it all together.
Heart Attack.
Intellos [ref]
biosimulation company. Works with pharma.
Mimic body, so you can test drugs without using people.
\"Human body infinitely more complicated than nuclear tests.\"

- Ultrasound. Heart CT.
Compared to real and actualized patients.
Real people who have these same datapoints. Already been through that 20 year period of life.
- 
their algo
- Prediction of Future http://www.entelos.com/index.php
This chart, which I kind of believe, shows my heart attack options:
1/ a surprise. My internist said, no attack in family. No one thought 70% in 20 years. Very surprising. Today show was filming. Gotcha moment. I was shocked. Only if I gain half a pound a year. I'm sensitive to weight gain.
2/ gain no weight - 2% risk
3/ zero risk with statins.

I don't have a heart attack. But this does give me rather dramatic results.
Retort: if people were listening, you would not have obese people.
- Future: I-health
One day. Where is my iPhone. We'll be carrying something like this.
July 8, 2015. 
Plug in biomonitors. Tracking air. 
Halibut sandwich - eat or not?
Go to Giants game - hot dog and a beer? Really high risk. Might do anyway, but risky.
Finally, anxiety disorder. Singularity talk? I have anxiety genes - OK to give talk.

- Mind the Gap
Science needs validating. Largely statistical.
Education needed.
Orwellian issues - living with probabilities
Big brother
Discrimination
No laws for neural data
Obama effect. Shook his hand. His water glass was sitting there. Genotype him?
Expensive 
too expensive for most

- Personalized Health Project
Coordinate efforts to validate
Integration is a key
Private sector and early adopters
Encourage (demand?) a paradigm shift

- Coming this fall. 
The Linkage Project: A Manifesto
Get leaders to sign. Calling for acceleration bringing technologies to us.
- Still going to more tests
Proteome.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proteome

Bryce: Decentralization of medicine? Or policy shift?

So far behind on applying technology it is ridiculous.
Medicine is conservative.
We have trouble digitizing medical records. UK is 95%.
Obama administration spending there now for cost control.
Manifesto - a natural gap? discovery to application.
Internet 1969, norm 30 years later.
OR, artificial. Lack of focus. Concluded it was the later.
Will come out in October.
Policy level is problem. Discovery level, no problem.
Try to delve a little into implementation - we need as much genius there as in the technology part.
12:49
[applause]
Keith: Next up: 583C in one hour. 

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Link to backchan.nl for questions:
http://singularity.backchan.nl/meetings/view/147 First speaker
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http://singularity.backchan.nl/meetings/view/149 Third speaker

GSP10 Book List:
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Instant Evaluation:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/a/singularityu.org/viewform?formkey=dGVzY3JzR3VFeTJjSElVcjM3REFpY0E6MQ

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul3-EES
"7/3/2010 
Saturday 
9am-12:30pm 
EES CL1 What\"s at Stake and What can be Done?
Gelobter/Hurd

SPEAKERS ON THIS PAD:
9:08 Michel Gelobter
Slides: http://bit.ly/c269Cl
9:41 Gregg Maryniak
Slides: http://bit.ly/dz78nb
10:52 Clint Wilder 
Slides: http://bit.ly/bQzngX
11:52 Dr. Steve Schneider
Slides: http://bit.ly/d3vtIZ

9:08 Michel Gelobter
Slides: http://bit.ly/c269Cl

The Power it Takes (problem set): http://bit.ly/bULdsT
SU Spreadsheet The Power it Takes: http://bit.ly/bbRRzI 
(all three problems are setup for solving)

Kathryn will review later looking for any [ref] markers--She and TFs will fill these in with references, but all are welcome (encouraged) to add references / put in as many details as available.

9:08 Michel Gelobter
Eric: Welcome to third co-chair, Gregg Maryniak.
Gave Peter the book Spirit of St. Louis, triggering whole prize-driven approach.
Has a moonbase named after him.

MG: Indian River/Hudson River stuff?
Friend from Hudson River sitting over on side.

[Slide Motivation]
Energy is largest industry in the world.
Pac Rim alone $200 billion.
$7 trillion between now and 2030. Number we hope will get bigger.
Policy is key.
Major nuclear power plant for processing tar sands. That oil, some of the dirtiest available, will meet CA standards.

It's a very fluid [energy] world, where technology crosses economics and policy.
You need a multi-disciplinary approach. 
Solar
Nuclear only will be wrong.
Need a team across disciplines.
Taught undergrads - most important 10 weeks due to Copenhagen, fed policy.
At a critical moment where a variety of things have come together in an unprecedented way.
[Slide: 1942 When you ride ALONE you ride with Hitler!
Bill Maher: 2002 When you ride ALONE you ride with bin Laden]
As Tom Friedman says, when you ride alone you are funding both sides of the war on terror.

The President has been saying lately, \"make no mistake\" [policy is key?]
US uses 25% of global energy. 36% of global green house gases from US.
How do we break down issues?
Analytic and opportunity leverage points you can use.
John Holdren - in 70's.

Four dimensions - The Environmental Cost of Energy
- Insults: exploration, extraction, refining, combustion, disposal.
Change. A hole in the ground. Military events. 
- Pathways: air, land, water, visiual, sound, economic, health
Did price go up? Did security risk go up?
Stresses: inhaled toxins, increased atmospheric heat retention
- Costs: from flooding to asthma to increased market risk
Human/economic/social.
How do these things play out.

Analysis map:
Doing exponential impact reports?
Points of intervention. Where can you interrupt the flow?
Block insult?
Interrupt pathway?
Mitigate cost. Maybe induce benefit?

Ways in which human intervention, relative to natural baseline, is having impact:
Methane - 230% more than nature.

Quickest way
24x more potent than CO2

Pollutants from burning.
Except Sulfur, 40 - 70%
Critical one - Lead.
Used 1300% of natural baseline.
Continues in backyards - due to fall out of freeway lead

Pathways/stresses/costs - where to intervene.

Basics of Energy:

KiloJoule - 1000 Joules
m2 kg / s2
Energy is a stockt
Power is a flow, rate at which work is done
Watt: energy/time = 1 joule / sec

The energy system - one of a series of frameworks. 
Six places where there are critical variables in the energy mix:
People (P)
Average Income (GDP/P)
Energy Intensity (E/GDP)
Carbon Intensity of Energy (C/E)
=
Carbon Emissions (C)

best known energy company: http://www.interfaceflor.com/. changed from making carpets to becoming a new model for energy effecient floor covering.
Major disruptive change in business model from primary energy production to services industry

Getaround - shift ownership from car to iPhone. Virtualize that. Drive completely different form of service.
Start at end use. Embedded cost.
Replace energy with energyservices - light through window instead of lamp.

Primary power goes into a power station, transmission, lamp, bulb, someone reads a book.
What is delivered to a meter.
Service at end - reading using light from bulb.
Try to intervene at different stages of energy use, think about harvesting issues

Each stage of use is tied to stresses, etc.
How much final energy 
China 50% higher intensity (??)
Vietnam 30% more efficient than US. Lots of hydropower.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micro_hydro

You guys can come back and look at these slides.

Harvesting issues.
Primary to end use - spectrum of issues.

Three important things in electricity system
1. Generation
2. Transmission
3. Loads (consumption by users)
Must be balanced.
Can you decentralize?
Once you go beyond 7-8% decentralized, the information needs become overwhelming.
Balance loads.
Millions of loads. Start having 1000s of sources ...
Places you can shunt energy off to increase flexibility.
How do we manage transmission.
Super long distance transmission is a reality today [ref]
How can we manage loads economically.

Costs of Electricity Generation:
Coal is 1/4 to 1/2 of wind
PV is fairly expensive -- dropping for alternatives, rising for fossil fuels.

Key part when economics crosses in is WHEN we use energy.
What times during the year. Due to heat wave coming, we need 45,000 MW in the state
all at once on a hot day.
Those few hours cost 10x more than baseline.
If you could drive down peaks, you could deliver energy a lot more cheaply.

Key story in CA is conservation.
Economic dimensions. 1974 electricity use went flat. Hasn't grown.
Compact flourescent for 3 for $1 [?]
Since 1973, fridge energy use.
Size of refridgerator has gone up, but energy efficiency has returned to 1950 levels.
Cell phones and chargers have take up difference.

5x equivalent use of energy for 50% more people. Still using no more energy than we are today - one solution: conservation.
Answers are, in fact, on the table.

Global analysis. CO2 abatement. McKenzie [ref]
Can eliminate at a profit.
Each place you can graph, study, take one of these bars/technologies and break the cycle around impacts in an exponential way.

\"Well-to-Wheels\"
Couple technologies - using fuel removes Carbon. Cellulosic Ethanol ?
Other very dirty ways ...

Wedges analysis. Key technologies that can be used to intervene.
Another, whole workshop. Dean Kamen.
Gigaton throwdown.
Carbon is a surrogate.
Water/Waste - 70% of problems caused by Energy.
What are promising abatement technologies.

No silver bullet. 
Oil/Gas - don't have enough.
500 years of coal, but not enough environmental capacity.
Not enough land for biofuel
Not enough sites for wind/solar and wires to sites
33,000 years of breeder based nuclear
PV too expensive
H is a battery, not a source of energy
Look at review slide

Two views about energy future:
Pessimists
Optimists.

9:41 Gregg Maryniak
How many of you wold like to impact the lives of 1 bn? 10 bn?
A place to do it is in Energy
Probably the most fundamental, catch all commodity that everybody uses.

Gregg Maryniak Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/present/view?id=0AXsPlav9xIzoZGZycWc3a2pfMGM3Mzd0Y2Nk&hl=en

10 Grand World Challenges: Energy, water, food, environment, poverty, terrorism & war, disease, education, democracy and population

Dr Steven Chu - the amount of energy we have - it's as if each one of us had 20-30 people working for us all the time
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Chu

Energy not equally distributed

For every 1W of energy used, ~$1 of GDP (general trend)

If you want to have population stability, a good way to do that is to make people rich - giving them more access to energy

2 - 3 billion people worldwide currently lack access to modern forms of energy (coal, charcoal, firewood, agricultural residues, dung = primary cooking fuel, 1.6 billion worldwide live without electricity)
First nanotechnology from humanity was soot - kills many people each year

1.Energy
Energy the enabler (Fred Komanoff)
Energy trades for everything 

2. Water
Half of hospitalizations across globe because of preventable waterborne disease, barrier is energy, created a vacuum distillation machine
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dean_Kamen

People have noted that the American system is set up to covert oil into food
https://publicaffairs.llnl.gov/news/energy/energy.html

One approach is to do something big but do it to someone else

Greg projects need for 10 - 20 x present global energy production 
Energy does NOT equal information, much more like water in the way you move it around

Ideal Energy Source Requirements: 
Net zero greenhouse gas emissions
No long-term waste storage issues
No land area requirements
No thermal emissions
No local microclimate effects
No external storage requirements
Close match to local load conditions over night and day
Output is easily transportable and storable
Low capital cost
Low operations cost
No reliance on scarce materials for construction and fueling

More people live in cities than outside cities

PC revolution was not a technological revolution. 
It was Jobs/ Wozniak's vision just to have fun computer.
Mac cost what a small car cost when it first came out.
Only things you could do was write code and play pong.
Like spending $10,000 today for a video game to play Pong(R).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pong

Assumptions about energy are that earth exists by itself.
We pretend there is no sun.
Using space is a very important part of solution - one of the best.

10:08
Problem sets.
Go in small groups.

10:18
Problem set v1 - all fossil fuel ever formed, 5 days. For far used 1 day.

We can probably only harvest about 30 EJ.

Q: Solar panels are only 15%, we are using just a portion of 
Biological processes took millions or years to capture 5 days of sunlight.

Q: How much energy is nature using?
Great question.
Almost none.

Answer to v2 - No, you cannot power that ship with solar power. Largest surface area of anything that moves.
Would need 16,000 W/m2 - about 40x more than actually hits the earth.
Places on equator which are 12,000 W/m2

Concentration of energy - sunlight is very diffuse.
Reason we have been able to power our civilization is because energy is stored.
A mousetrap.
A strobe light.
Changing the time shape of energy.
Just because lots of energy is around, doesn't mean it is in the right form.
Energy you need to move 70,000 tons per mile. Key is conversions, efficiency.

v3 - space problem.
Actually, look at the energy in.
Thermodynamics problem.
Actually use thermodynamics to tell what is the most efficient any system can be.
Put in a lot of thermal systems, max 30% turned to work.
Power plants 40%.
70% is maximum you could get.

You can look for thermodynamic gaps. Move to 60/70. Closer you get, the harder it gets.
Tells you when it is just not possible to get enough energy.

Earth receives 343 W/m2. Energy is conserved. 255 degrees Kelvin - temp of Earth at space boundary.

Get very close to actual Earth values.

Use 1 million times more energy?
Gary/Matt: 19 million degrees?

What you want to figure out is what is main method energy is going to leave.
Will turn into heat. 15m TW or 15 EW or 15 EJ/second. From surface of the earth, 22x more energy than the sun is delivering.

People are thinking about really exponentially greater ways of generating energy. If we went to fusion reactors, created that much energy. Mini suns on the earth.
Replace energy out with 22x energy - solve for T.
Hand waving exercise. Forget the sun.
Solve for energy out and T is 392 degrees Celsius. [HOT!]

What about using 1 million times LESS energy for energy services?

Where is the exponential we want to achieve?

Q: Justin/ Canada. Missing something. Assuming all energy in is heat out?
That is where it ends up.
Justin: When you use energy to build/construct/synthesize anything - energy is stored and not emitted as heat - is it a fair assumption to say that energy in = thermo energy out?
Yes, if we used the energy to build things, yes.
But if we used it to move things, it would become heat.

Q: Eric. 5% growth. We could do much better.
10-20x more energy needed as projection. [for planet]
We could improve efficiency 10 fold.
Much stronger policy than technical issue.
1000s of buildings which consume less than they produce.

Look at slides. I think the whole planet could run on 90% less energy.

Gregg: Some areas where you can make big difference.

This building built in 60's. Energy was \"free\"
Big buildings with giant window surfaces.
Vast areas for efficency improvements.

Permanent magnets.
Large generators are extremely efficient.
You need more energy in your cell phone.
Years ago, systems designed when energy did not matter.
Hopefully as developing world builds out, it won't use old technology.

Coming: Developed world solutions.
Hard core parts of clean tech - hard to make money.
Incumbent competitors.
Disruptive guys are up against world's largest companies.
They will not go quietly.
People working in this area have more courage than I do.

Q: Dmitry. How will dynamic go over next 10-15 years. Peak and decline with drop in PV?

If you can answer that, you can print money for yourself.
Has a lot to do with policy.
If I was emperor of the world, you'd have to pay for clean up of CO2.
When you talk about pricing, that is very hard. 
You don't have to pay - so incentive is to use coal in US/Russia
In notes for next week, look at 1956
M. King Hubbert - coal curve
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/

Jim: Clean tech - biggest % is hydro Won't increase dramatically.
Other than hydro, would need unbelievable exponential increase to have any impact.

People who predict the price of oil/coal/gas believe in linear adoption.
10:39 Break
Steve Schneider. NCAR. Stanford
http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/

10:52 Clint Wilder 
http://www.cleanedge.com/book/
Clean Tech Revolution on Amazon: http://amzn.to/dr40ZA
10:52 Slides: http://bit.ly/bQzngX
Jim: Now in paperback. In 5 languages.
USA Today, \"One of few books to see Green Tech as economically profitable.\" 

Clint: Good morning.
Is anyone here from either Spain or Paraguay? You are forgiven [soccer game]
Thrilled to be in such an international audience.
Been in Europe in May.
Yesterday flying back from NY. Had TV and WiFi. Watching game, on-line with frends in Netherlands. This is a nice next thing to do.
Just a little bit about who I am.
Clean Edge - covers clean tech exclusively. First one. Started in 2000. I joined in '02.
We publish reports, most available free. Clean energy trends 2010.
Job trends report.
Conference in Palm Springs. Next year our 7th, with 500 people.
Cleanedge jobs board.
Can check out job listings.
With Ron, wrote book: Clean tech revolution. Paperback out in Fall '08.
Intention, not just for greenies any more.
Big business.
Not politics or envrinomental view.
About making money.

Thomas A. Edison - invents \"I find out what the world needs, then I proceed to invent\"
Future bounded only by creativity. Especially true in green tech.

Clean tech is :
Harnessing renewable materials and energy sources
Reducing use of non renewable goods
Cutting
with equal or superior performance.

Hybrid car. Still filling it with gas, just a lot less of it. More efficinet, still clean tech.
Cut emissions/waste.
While also offering good service.
Reliable electricity.
Recycled materials.
Qualtiy or people won't buy it.

[Slide: hippy and young businessman = Then and Now]
Live smarter. Emulate nature.
Business is the solution
Feed into the grid (Renewable Energy Finance forum - Wall street [ref])
90% solar power on grid, solar power going mainstream, utilities getting into it.
Small is profitable.
Be interdependent
Think globally and locally, act in both
The people need power - renewable clean power.

Four domains
1/ Energy
2/ Transport
3/ Water (for Q&A) can't live without it.
4/ Materials/Green Buildings (hot area now)

Water
Energy efficient desalination
UV filtration
Reverse osmosis filtration
membranes
Automated Metering and Controls
Water Recovery and Capture

In trends report, track from Big to Huge. $144 bn. Up to $343 bn.
Driving forces - six C's
Costs: volatility vs. steady decline, clean energy costs are declining, fossil fuel costs are volatile
Capital
Competition
China - really kind of symbol of rapidly developing - including Brazil, Russia
Consumer
Climate

Will go quickly here.
Costs: Volatility vs Steady Decline.
Fossil fuel costs goin gup but extremely volatile, hard to predict.
Whereas - wind power or solar. Costs are 0, $ is in the technology to harness it.
Particularly dramatic drops in solar, not as low as we'd like it to be. Steady downward trend.

Capital.
On left, total venture investments. Peaked in 2001 at $40bn.
In energy technology, holding more steady - going up and up (to $2-3 bn). From \x3c1% to 12.5% VC funding in 2009

Competition.
Job creator.
Compeition to get factories, attract entrepreneurs.
Regional reports. 
State of MA. WA / OR combined.
All available to public.

China.
Some people say it is a conundrum
Leading in solar
Also in pollution

Consumers
Not just tree huggers and greenies
Compact flourescent and LED lightbulbs
When Walmart is talking green, you know it is mainstream.

Climate
Consensus is beyond challenge.
Key for us: carbon footprint seen as investment risk.
Smart business not waiting for government but moving forward with climate reduction.

Big Eight
Solar
Wind
Sustainable bio
Green building
Autos
Smart grid
Mobile
Water

Solar
Growth in global annual installed solar capacity.
Some Companies: Solar World (German), Trina solar, Qcells (German), Bright Source Energy (US), 
First Solar (US - TF solar tech)
.

Wind

Some Companies: Vestas, Repower, GE, Siemens, China Longwan? power group corporation limited, Goldwind

Only 1 is American, GE. All makers of turbines.
Vestas is leader.
Repower is German.
Last one in China is in all power sectors, including solar.
Over last 2-3 years, overseas cos, come to US, mfg here. We have lots of wind but not turbine mfgs.
From Spain,
Shows global nature of industry.

Jim: Goldwind 9-10 bn company. Superconducting magnets to get higher efficiencies.
Close to renewable energy less than Coal.
Google goal: RE \x3c C

Biofuels:
Soybeans and corn
Very resource intensive. Compete with food supply.
Raised prices.
Wrote about this in the book. Good bridge technologies to get to sustainable stocks.

Some Companies: Range Fuels (US), Mascoma (US), Synthetic Genomics (EXXON investment) (US), Aurora Biofuels (US), Sustainable Oils (US), Amyris (BP Investment) (US)

-Range Fuels use Wood waste. Lot of tree not used in products, can be used as biofuel. Fastest growing in the world. 

-Macoma, also uses switch grass. They grow like weeds. Cellulosic - 

-Synth Gen - Craig Venter
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craig_Venter
Algae. Partner with Exxon. $600m / $500 m from BP.

-Aurora Bio. In news, CEO and CFO quit, still announced $15 m funding round the next month. Lot of promise, competition. People chasing this.
High risk.

-Sustainable oil.
Camelina. 
Bozeman Montana.
Clean tech has reach.

Green Building sector:

Some Companies: Bright Works (US/China/others), U.S. Green Building Council (fast growing organization), earth advantage (US), Hycrete (US), Gerding Edlen (US)

Wide range of approaches/technologies.
Brightworks out of portland OR.
Leading center for green building expertise.
Work with construction firms/developers.
Low energy and very green.
Over 100 projects completed and working on.
US Green Building council. Fastest growing association of any kind.
Lead standard - leadership in energy and design. Stamp of approval.
Best is Platinum. Gold. Certified. [ref]
First for construction, neighborhoods, single family homes.
Certification program for architects.

Jim: Students interested in efficiency. How can that scale up?

Smart grid sector.
Earth advantage in Portland.
Started under PGE. Spun off. Expanded to CA and MA.
Again they work with both consumers / businesses.
Insulation, HVAC, 

Hycrete - building materials.
Cement that uses recycled materials, local sourcing. Help construction people get that LEED certification.

Gerding Edlen
Realestate developers.
Green developments

-
Automobile Electrification.
Tesla IPO.
As you probably read, went up 70% on day when DOW was down 280.
First US auto IPO in 50 years, since Ford Motor.
We write alot about Tesla. A startup car company?? What???
If anyone can do it, Silicon Valley can.
Chevy (Volt)
Nissan also on slide. (Leaf)
Start ups competing with big companies.

Fisker ? 
Coming later this year. 15,000 cars in Finland. Investor: Kleiner Perkins.

better place. 
Denmark, Canada, ...
battery exchange stations for electric cars.
Instead of gas stations. Very cool concept. Addresses idea you can drive an electric car more than 200 miles if you have this network of stations.

-
Smart grid. 

Some Companies: (Silver Spring Networks (US), Enernoc (US), BPL Global, Itron, CISCO (US)

Almost always about more efficient delivery of electricity.
Less waste on transmission.

SilverSpring - in Silicon Valley
Demand response.

BPL. Broadband over Power Lines. In the internet heyday.
Changed now - Better Power Lines.
All about information flow on the power grid.
Knowing when peaks of demand are.
Need information tehcnology experts.
Also CISCO pushing into smart grid.
Information - also including IBM, Microsoft, Google

Jim: CISCO/Intel project in China.
Technology for smart grid.

Itron. Smart meter - largest mfg. Hardware company.

-
Clean-Tech.
Bullish on space.
Lot of growth happening now.
Lots of challenges on resources.
- corn / bio
Policy. Favorable policy in Germany caused great growth.
Fossil price volatility - when these drop, harder for clean energy to compete.
New shale gas in Penn. Could dramatically lower cost of nat gas.
If you are in the wind/solar business, a bad thing.
Private sector credit has not loosened up as much as we'd like.
Project finacne for big wind installations, etc.

NASDAQ indices.

CELS - categories and ETF (Exchange Traded Fund)
Advanced Materials
Energy Intelligence
Energy Storage
Renewable Generation

OMX - wind
QGRD - smart grid, both US and outside US.

\"We are in the midst of one of the greatest shifts in human history\"
Join in shift or become like the dinosaurs.

Sasha: Developing world.
Solar can scale down as well as up.
Thing about solar, wind also. Distributed generation.
One rooftop at a time.
For places getting electricity the first time, can go via \"leapfrog effect\" to build a village, one area at a time.
Developing world has places to grow biofuels.

Jim: Where are nearer term home energy. Obviously solar. Soltions that can work in developing world.
Ericsson - power for cell phones. Didn't come true.

Alaeddine: Space market?
We need to wait a few years whether this is a good market. Sounds far fetched.
We have enough solar here on earth if we deployed it the way we could.
Some ideas - like high altitude wind. Great to push envelop, seek new stuff.
Much better opportunity closer to ground.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Masdar_City

Been other efforts in China,other places. Masdar is biggest.
Jim: Was in 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianjin

: Race.
Mney never hurts. Not just the most money. Smart policies.
Entire chapter \"Create your own silicon valley\" 
What are the tools ou need.
Coordinate - certain kinds of leadership.
What your region is strong in.
We're going to do clean tech.
Some areas have lots of engineers.
Report on MA - certain things they are not going to do, like big scale mfg.
But they have MIT. And A123 Systems. Energy storage/battery guys. That becomes a core competancy of that region.
Spain another great example.

: Anders/Denmark: Wind power?
That's good point. Wind power industry creates all kinds of other industries around it. 1000s of components. Analyze where wind blows and when.
Guy who goes to big cell phone towers, does analysis of wind with monitor on tower that is already there. Already one big tower, so people won't object to more wind towers.
Supply chain for wind industry
Groth markets: China #1. US continues to be a growth market.
As Denmark matures, more opportunity.

Q: Maggie/ Boston. Interested in MA - Nantucket wind farm controversy. Problem about making wind power more aethetically pleasing. [ref]

Have sense, when they actually put them in, not as bad as everyone feared.
Jim: Big envirnomentalists didn't like idea.
How about a see through wind turbine?

Our friend from Denmark, has offshore wind. Not called ugly.

Article on Cape Cod wind farm, with simulated image from shore
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/17/us/17wind.html?_r=1

Anders: Vestas has windmill sit next to HQ. Shadow makes you feel turbine is cutting your head off. Offshore is way to go.

Another place - in the Great Lakes. Doesn't have to be an ocean.
Report just done in April.

Q: JulieLynn on behalf of our videographer, Kevin.
Solar panels in windows?

There are projects that combine clean and not-clean energy.
Challenge - intermittent. Energy storage is important.
Combine wind farm with hydro electric.
Small nat gas turbine.
Some green buildings - sky scraper in NY.
Wind turbine coming out of building. Solar on roof. Turbines jut out lower down.

Jim: Thanks. Stay around for lunch.
Clint: Happy to talk to you.
Jim: More right on to next speaker.
11:52 Dr. Steve Schneider.
http://climatechange.net/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Schneider

Slides: http://bit.ly/d3vtIZ

Great climate hero of our planet.
Book: Science as a Contact Sport.
http://www.amazon.com/Science-Contact-Sport-Inside-Climate/dp/1426205406

Steve: Thanks Michael.
Enjoying listening to voices from foreign countries - strangest was Texas.
Let me answer part of combining solar with other things question:
Mark Jacobson - student Christine Archer. Can you use solar/wind/renewable as base load? [ref]
Tried to define network: solar thermal - need several hours of storage.
This is system analysis talk. 
Systems analysis is not test tube science. No controlled experiments.
Depending on probabilty of risk of brownout. Need 40% oversupply.
Why dump energy? Why not make H, or desalinate. 
We could do that. Transition to talk: get out of silo mentalities. Connect systems.
Get out of department's remit. Not stuck in biology dept.
Academia is so siloed. Encourage broad thinking. One reason I agreed to do this.
Appreciated that broad, open minded thinking.

I do media training.
We do a lot of media.
How perceived.
How framed.
People will frame it their way.
Don't use word Singularity on Letterman.
We call them \"Tipping Points\" in public.
We know how important they are, but not where they are.

I want to talk to the problem we have.
Is the science \"settled\" - not kind of word you use in Systems Science.
Last 50 years - warming for 150 - is at least half or more from
AGW - anthropomorphic global warming (don't use this on Today show)

About a year ago I was in New Zealand methane from 60 million sheep
Bottom line was how many believe in global warming, 70% said yes, in Texas is was about 17%

Is the Science \"settled\"?
Can't directly test the future so we test elements of process
Look for multiple emerging lines of evidence
your conclusion is expert when it is subjective
volcano blows off produces dirt in the atmosphere then look at your climate change, does it correlate with global warming trends?
Yes, not proof but does improve probablity of being right

-Well established components
-Competing explanations
-Speculative components

Risk = what can happen x ,,,, (especially in terms of global warming)
what to do about that risk is called risk managment
in looking at risks we can't get the full answer but we can get an idea
risk managment is all the things we can do in policy etc. to mitigate the risks
we are practicing risk management whether we like it or not
if you want to wait until we can prove the results with science then you just made a value judgement and you are no longer a scientist

Soultions have to be corporate, national, and global
You run into policy makers who don't feel the problem is not worth giving up national soveriegnty
Global Warming is going to hell in a handbasket??
Temperature anomally is spiking upward recently
You get issues when people don't understand systems analysis or even sampling error

Bozo senator built an igloo called in \"Al Gore's\" warming house
He is using one day as proof versus decades of climate anomaly data, news covered it as a serious story, \"guilty of scientific child abuse\"

No such good thing as a hockey stick
Good data replicates

Anthropogenic Global Warming AGW
No developing country, enviromental NGO, industrial monolith, 
recognize change is transitional
Fracturing of monolith -> deals 

Now you 'retro'dict and ask what's a better fit, no matter if it's land, water or air, there is not a perfict fit

using fingerprints of temperature of surface vs. temp of stratosphere

expect to see warmer near humans, we see this but it's not necessarily proof [?]

Mediarology
Mediarology

\"Science as a Contact Sport\"

Not every change is bad, change is change, value judgement on how it affects bad, winners/losers

Change is change, bad if it hurts more than it helps

Environment is not dollarizable, can compare it to tourist industries, that's why this problem is so hard

Non-linear tripping points matter!, energy not T balance, when look at real world, look at multiple factors that determine

Iceland is melting 4 times faster than it's accumulating snow, is this natural and man made causes?
We have nothing to compare it to, like flipping a coin without knowing what a coin is.

Look for other factors in process to look for answer, change prior belief to revised prior (Bayesian)
Change you belief to a revised prior
If this was natural you would see it 20-30 years ago in melt layers but we don't see that
Doesn't prove but we can say it's likey 66-90% that humans are at least half the problem

Everyone loves polarbears but if you try petting one, you'll win the darwin award

How do you dollarize the value of animals that have no GDP but did nothing to cause the problem
Smaller countries say \"you're big and caused the problem and have moeny\" big countries say you have more people and we can't make as big of a diff as you can, both right, Only way to solve this probelm is to make a deal
Help people leapfrog over Victorian Industrial Revolution model
I
Major challenge to democracy
1-5% chance we already can't stop it
We can only do systems analysis or we are experimenting dangerously with the only earth we have which is morally unacceptable

All compitent climate science is global, you can't cherry pick your areas and your time tables, that's why we're not good at the sound bites

Organinzing of IPCC? Imporved and how?
Yes, but how broken is it hard question to answer

IPCC does not do research, it only evaluates what is done
If you are going to have someone comment on a report that actually wrote the report, you have a conflict of interest.

[end of presentation]
Link to backchan.nl:
Morning Session I (09:00 \u2014 10:00)
http://singularity.backchan.nl/meetings/view/127
Morning Session II (10:15 \u2014 11:15)
http://singularity.backchan.nl/meetings/view/128
Morning Session III (11:30 \u2014 12:30)
http://singularity.backchan.nl/meetings/view/129

Instant Evaluation (REMINDER: Visit this link 3 times, once for each EES session):
https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/gsp10/feedback/week-2

GSP10 Book List:
http://bit.ly/GSP10BookList

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun30-BB
"
Wednesday 
6/30/2010 
9am - 12pm 
Seth Michelson
Biotech
Genomic Medicine, Biotechnology, and Individualized Care
DESCRIPTION: By drafting a consensus sequence of the human genome, medical research has opened an entirely new field of understanding regarding the advent and dynamic evolution of the pathophysiologies we call disease. The technologies developed to accomplish this feat, and then exploit that success to its fullest, are termed Biotechnology, and have spawned an industrial revolution in science and medical research. The next obvious challenge is to exploit that knowledge in a way that will optimize human health. The goal of that effort has been termed Individualized Medicine. Drug discovery and development involve a series of difficult, systematic decision-making exercises, each of which is based on data acquired from a myriad of bioassays, clinical trials, and their incumbent technologies. Only when data describing gene expression, cell function, and whole-body physiology are interpreted in the context of an integrated system function, will we achieve our optimization goals. In this talk, I address each of these aspects in the arena of individualized medicine and describe the relationship between data acquisition, the biotechnologies at hand, and their ultimate application in a \u201cLearn-and-Confirm\u201d model of knowledge acquisition.

Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0ByuGXnC_X6-QOTNlOTFhNWItZDA0OS00OWM3LTkwZDctNjk4MTY2N2RiM2U1&hl=en

Or prezi site: http://prezi.com/zd2ibyqy2jik/digitial-biology-biology-under-moores-law/
All Our Ideas: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10bb1

\x3cnotes start here>

Kathryn will review later looking for any [ref] markers--She and TFs will fill these in with references, but all are welcome (encouraged) to add references / put in as many details as available.

Agenda
Molecular Biology
- Central Dogma
- DNA replication
- Transcription
- Translation
- Post-Translational Modification
- Proteomic Diversity and Splice Variants
- Reverse Transcription and Viral Infection
Learn and Confirm & Adaptive Trials
- The Sheiner Model
- Time
- Characterizing the heterogeneity space
Biomarkers and signatures
- Observation and Surrogacy
Conclusions

Drug discovery - understanding the biology of the pathway and then creating the drug/molecule to interfere with that pathway
Drug development - once drug is in human.
Appropriate to what we need.

When Raymond first asked me to do this talk, I wanted to make sure we were talking about Human Health.
Biotech is broad: includes agri-science.
I want to talk about biotech for human health and genomics.
Enough to infer cell biogiology. 
Homeostatic system.
How to intervene in the most appropriate way.
If you intervene in a human system: that's medicine.
In a personal way: personalized medicine.

Basics: Central Dogma of Molecular Biology
DNA
A flux of information
Moves to actionable item.
DNA => mRNA => Protein (bioactive molecule)

You replace cells all the time.
Half life of red blood cell: between 90 and 120 days.
Over the course of a year, all your blood is new.

Your crip? cells have shorter life. Enable you to digest.

Protein is the actual action figure. That is called translation.

Mutations are both good and bad and it depends on the outcome. They are a measure of adaptability.
Being mutable. DNA must be labile.
Code must be permanetized.
Double door lets HIV in.
CCR5 can be blocked.
People who are homozygous are easier to infect.
People with CCR5 mutation survived while those without would not.
So selective pressure made this feature homogenous in population.

Bad things have died out.
Sickle Cell anemia. This mutation, or phenotype, was a protective agent.
When moved away from malaria, then it no longer becomes protective - became deadly disease for people of African descent.

Mutations are a measure of adaptability.

DNA Polymerase gives RNA, via polymerase, then translated into Ribosome.

So, how does DNA replicate. A double helix. A ladder twisted around itself.
It opens up and replication happens inside of that V.
Perfect Xerox copy right?
[Most of the time]
If not perfect? A clean up enzyme does repairs. Like a zamboni machine (that makes ice smooth at an ice rink).

Once you have DNA and getting something out of it, the information is transfered via MESSENGER RNA. Taking data and information from this guy here to the Polypeptide.
You can translate it into action over here.

DNA vs RNA - deoxyribonucleic acid vs ribonucleic acid - so you lose an Oxygen.
These guys form the sugar backbone of the ladder.
Rungs of ladder built with base pairs (nucleotides).
Adenine - called A.
Cytosine - C
Guanine - G
Thymine - T
On DNA ATCG A+T, C+G they form the rungs.

On RNA, you replace Thymine with Uracil.
Copy complement.

Once you have it, how do you get that information into a protein.

AUGC. How many amino acids could I grab appropriately.
One for each - not enough.
So now I use 2: 16 choices. There are 20 amino acids.
So I use 3: 64 choices, some duplicates.
The nucleotide TRIPLET in mRNA is called a codon.
An encoded chain. Will eventually become a protein.

Can't just run willy-nilly. Must have control
Biological control
Anatomical control
Transcription occurs through mRNA. Sequestered 
Proteins you want - some will work in cytoplasm.
You can do more things ... finally make it active.
Though anatomical sequestration, separate where messenger goes. This is the commute. What I spent my time doing in the car this morning.
Make sure things stay where they are supposed to stay.

[Amino acid code table - which triplets code for which of the 20 amino acids]
UUA - Phe
UUC - Leucine

Note there is a STOP. Thank you very much. Go away. Go to work, become an active protein.

Codon saved in DNA, mRNA is actualized.

Okay. Got to build it now. \"I want you to build\"
Ribosome is where action takes place.
Complement ACC grabs Tryp is called TRNA - Transfer RNA.

UUU complements AAA, makes Lysine.
It is an assembly line. You are building a car.
This is not quite the final car. Just a polypeptide change. Giving structure and function.

What does TRNA look like? This is where the appropriate amino acid will bind. A glue to hold them together.

An enzyme comes along and glues it up. One guy on the assembly line puts parts together, then the welder comes along.

You got a gene. You got a protein. That was the old paradigm of thought.
Guess (in betting pool) how many genes C. Elegans had.
We must be more complicated. 150,000 genes? Turns out human animal has 150,000 proteins but only 30,000 genes. Hmmm. That means making 5,6,7 different proteins from codes, so splice variation comes in to loop over DNA to make different proteins.
Gives you multiplicative factor.
You have to be able to do that to handle the diversity.
Very, very complex environment.
Must maintain homeostatis.
Three proteins shown in this cartoon.

So, polypeptide -> protein. Well, not quite. More things to do:
Cleave off things.
Insulin. Get me through this membrane.
Membranes are fatty. Lipo-rich. Need something lipo-philic.
Packaged appropriately, then built, activated through post translation modifications.

Stages of development.
Whole bunch of these - faced by glucose challenge. Rather than whole machinery you have something like INVENTORY.
Good for dynamic environment.
Post translational modification to face diversity.

Everything is hunky-dory (good).
Mutations can be bad. But, we also have viruses to deal with. RNA - reverse transcription.
Copy DNA gets implanted into host. They hijack machinery.
Take over that cell and make more copies of themselves, burst cell open and take over more cells [until caught and stopped by VECOY! - see http://su-etherpad.com/Jun29-Vecoy]

RNA will do reverse transcription and hijack your world.

Good artists copy, great artists steal. -- Pablo Picasso
[ref]
Lewis B. Sheiner, 1940-2004
http://www.nature.com/clpt/journal/v76/n6/full/clpt2004542a.html

What happens in time?
The laws of biochemistry did not change. The rules of statistics did not change. You changed! Where? How? How do I know? What is the impact???

What is the most liver toxic drug you can take? 
Acetaminophen (Tylenol)

Biology is speaking to us in the only language it knows. Therefore, we must become fluent in that language. How we caryy on the conversation requires different skills and different tools. We can:
- Listen passively
- Undertake exploratory talks (dose rates)
- Active conversations - hypothesis gneration, bioassays (it isnt the technology but the question that matters!), Clinical trials and others? 

Type 1. Error. rejecting a null hypothesis while it's actually true
Type 2. Error. failing to reject an hypothesis while it's not true
Type 3. Error. (joke) getting the absolute right answer to the wrong question

Biomarkers and Signatures

Conclusions (copied from slide):
Molecular biology and genomic medicine are forming a new launching pad to our understanding of human health
To exploit that understanding we must understand our data 
And to do that we must embed it in the appropriate physiological context
The context of that context requires we have a conversation with the biology that generated the data in the first place
We can passively observe the systems at hand, conduct exploratory conversations with it or actively query it
The knowledge and insights derived from these conversations will drive the choice of technology we will use
Our insights best accrue from a marriage of inductive and deductive logic and reasoning
The impact of these conversation/technology pairs on human health and individualized medicine span the R&D pipeline

10:05
[Experiment with small group discussions.]
10:20 discussion still going on ... we are 5 minutes into the time for the next session.
10:23 Your attention please - Q&A for Seth. Please put them on the Etherpad. 

=========================================================
[QUESTIONS GO HERE]

What is your opinion about direct to consumer advertising? Is personalized medicine dependent on DTCA?

How far away are we from full in silico modeling of a tissue? of an organ?

Erez: How does the~1B$ cost split in the different stages of the drug design process? What are the expess-sinks and how can these be reduced to facilitate faster and cheaper novel drug approval?

Erez: What is the state of the art for glycobiology? can we read carbohydrate trees well? can we artificially manufacture them and add them correctly to proteins? How much is this been dealt with in the biologicals industry?

Erez: are there any serious global alternatives for an FDA drug design approval? a different agency for drug approval which is not an FDA rubber-stamp.

=========================================================
Will continue discussion moving forward.

Core Lectures: Basic biology > Digital Biology > Social Biology > Business trends > What is actionable > What is dangerous > The extremes > The future

Key challenge: Bridging the gap between the exponential increase in biological data and getting useful applications into the real world.

Setting tone for biotech track. The arc of the track. Biology is complicated. Language of biology, mechanisms working.
20% of this class has advanced degrees in biology.
How biology is going digital.
Surpassing Moore's law
Raymond will address this new digital biiology.
Moving beyond digital into social biology.
Business trends - reshaping pharma business, and other opportunities.
Has not been able to accelerate.

What can you do over next 5-10 years.
What is dangerous about these systems. We'll have one of the world experts come and talk about that.
Limits of biology - extremophiles
Where can life exist -50C and +50C. Life is more adaptable than that.
Where is the future?

What we can start to do together this summer.
Share an overview on digital biology

10:28
[applause]

Digital Biology: Biology Under Moore's Law

Slides: [Sarah Russell]

If I get to talking fast or low, just say \"Slow Down\" and \"Speed Up\"

Working now on sequencing.
Senior scientist.

All public information. Speaking just for self.

Originally Biology was like button collecting and badly organized because it lacked predictive theory, A lot evolved recently (last century)
As we got more advanced tools, we discvored more complexity but we were able to simplify our theories.

Think of Biology as Computation.
1's and 0's. Substitutes for some kind of information.
ACGT
Came about when Watson, Crick and Franklin discovered DNA.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dna#History_of_DNA_research
How organized, copied

How biology is NOT like computation
-Limited compartmentalization
-Not that fast, but very parallel
-floppy parts = poor tolerances
-but self-assembling

PCR: invented by Kary Mullis who got the nobel prize for it in Chemistry
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kary_Mullis
PCR: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymerase_Chain_Reaction

Allows us to duplicate DNA exponentially, has allowed for an explosion of R&D

Pyrosequencing - measuring the light emitted from modified PCR in order to sequence the DNA

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shotgun_sequencing
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrosequencing

DND Data sequencing has been increased. The Gene bank has been at a standstill with so much data. Private Gene bansk have been set up. 

(Slide)
Projects: 
Human Genome Project - 2001-2 , ~13 years ~$300M
Celera Genome Project, 2001 ~ 3y 
-James Watson Genome
-Illmina Youraban - 2008 - 6 week - 100K
-Illumina Consumer Sequencing - 2009 - 1 week - 48K
-2010 = $9,500-$19,500

Human Genome Sequencing Retail Pricing
June 2009: $48,000
June 2010 $9,500-19,500

Last 3 years we are dropping by a factor of 5
How long until we have a $1 Genome? And what would we do with it?
(from slide)
Sequence EVERYTHING!
\"Look cute...sequence it!\" \"Taste good...sequence it!\" Beijing Inst. 

HiSeq 2000 
350+ Gb of DNA
2 human genomes
in 5 days
$10,000 each

Feb 200 Gbases - Now 350Gbases

So What?

June 2010: $9,500 - $19,500 

Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS)
http://grants.nih.gov/grants/gwas/
Used for drug response and disease risk.
Use SNPs (single nucletide polymorphisms) to determine how people differ in their response to drugs

http://www.drugbank.ca/

Plavix drug use
http://www.plavix.com/Index.aspx

Age-related Macular Degeneration
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macular_degeneration
Wear sunglasses.
Test: look at graph paper. Are lines \"bendy\"? If so, go see your doctor. [another iPhone app?]

Human disease network. Grouped together - when they share gene or metabolite.
Systems or network biology
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systems_biology

Simplified [ha!] view of metabolic pathways.
Even more complexity on top of that.
Number of cells in your body 1 bn you. 9-10 bn that live in your gut/skin. Are you you?

Hope I've blown your mind a bit. Now what I work on.
How are genes put together - 
Just genes = just parts list
Epigenetic changes. 
copy number variations
10x more variation than SNPs.

On this level - what parts read at any given time and what happens when.
Epigenetics
Epi - means \"above\", literally a code above that of DNA
Methylation
When the \"lollipops\" (methyl group) are on, you get different methylation.
Obesity
Diabetes

If we treat DNA with bisulfite, we can tell wether these things are on or off. The methylated bases turn from C to T, for example, if they are not methylated.

Breast cancer. CPGI Island. You can see at the top the methylation.

Transcriptomics - different splicing in unexpected ways, spanning even into exons(useful code)

Transcript Isoforms - several alternate transcripts. Does anybody know how many genes are alternately spliced? 95% had this. Kind of been driving things for us.

Gene fusion. Causes bad gene to get turned on . Major factor in cancer diagnosis.
microRNA - little pieces land on end of transcripts and turn them off.
Sequence those - regulate 30-40% of all genes.

You are not going to get a single sequence in your lifetime. Sequenced over and over. Good to see prices dropping. Coming into play in medicine and research.

No proteomics now.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proteomics (study of proteins)
Environment and heredity. Genes are not \"Fate map\"

Huge. You want to be able to study and measure to understand.

Future of sequencing - better, faster, cheaper.
Using smaller amounts of reagents.
Used to think there could be no $10,000 sequence.
Fluidime [ref]
Raindance [ref]

Easier: electrically sense DNA. Put though pore. Not an imagining step
Halcyon 
Oxford Nanopore

biomimetic
Technologies harnessing biomachines

Automation: have robot do this for you.

Bottleneck is informatics.
Proportion that is chemsitry going down really quickly
Computer power part is going up. So it is an informatics game.
If you've got a Terabyte of data - what is best way to move it?
[FedEx]
Got it in one.

Trends:
Biology is now under Moore's law.
5x for last several years.
Complexity for minimum component cost - well, we beat that.
Sequencing dropping faster than informatics.

Commodity business? racing to bottom?
Better to be USING sequence rather than producing it.

Points on Ray's graph are not the same company year to year.

More opportunities to sell these technnologies

Sequencing is to nanotechnology as RAM is to microtechnology

The End of Science
The Petabyte Age

Biology is personal and getting more so:
DTC Genomics
Navigenics
23andMe
deCodeME
Counsjl
...

Citizen Science
DIY people
DIYgenomics.org - crowd sourced clinical trials. Not profitable for pharma companies.
BioCurious from across the freeway here. Nicest wet tech lab ever seen. [Can we visit?]

Dystopian / Utopian view. But, the dystopian view is ... depressing.

Gene Patenting Problems.
Resolved - Navigenics example.
10% of revenues.

Genetic screening more widely available.
Beyond Batten Disease
NCGR
CureTogether

openpcr.org - open source PCR machine
pearlbiotech.com - $199 gel electrophoresis, plans are free

[end of presentation] 11:20

All Our Ideas crowdsourced questions: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10bb1
Please take 2 minutes to vote for suggestions.

Instant Evaluation:
https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/gsp10/feedback/week-2

Questions:

Erez: How are we doing with Carbohydrate sequencing? Accuracy? Cost? Speed?

From All Our Ideas:
Tell us about cost and attrition.
What generation of sequencing machines is the HiSeq 2000

Q: How far along are we with DNA tests? Picture ... Commercially available?
How close to portable DNA test attached to phone?
Q: (Rand?) Actually available?

Technology has been proven. doesn't scale well.
Send sample off to lab. 2,4,6 weeks to get results.
Other tests are like blood tests, but expensive.

Q: How far along - iPhone with your informationon it.
Software to display things..

Melanie Swan - wrote apps. 
DIYgenomics.org
http://www.DIYgenormics.org

Alumina for full sequence - same thing. How often are you on your iPhone.
Break.
11:23

Link to Next Talk-- Rose, FEE: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun30-FEE

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul10-EES
"7/10/2010 
Saturday 
9am - 12pm 
EES CL4 Geoengineering Edge Issues: 
Sequestration, Geoengineering, Mitigation and Adaption 
Dan Whaley/Leinert
Slides: http://bit.ly/bXphT2
EES CL5 Energy for the Developing World 
Michael Gelobter
Slides: http://bit.ly/bBCcua
EES CL6 Exponential Technologies 
Gregg Maryniak
http://www.tsgc.utexas.edu/tadp/1996/general/maryniak.html
Slides:
Second talk slides: 

=============== PRE-presentation notes

Erez has introduced a new SUMMARY Etherpad:
http://su-etherpad.com/Pad-One-Liner:o :
Please contribute.

Slide marker in Etherpad:
- 
at the left margin, the hyphen above indicates a new slide.

If someone wants to put in the TITLE of the slide, like this
- Example Title
that would be even better.

[ref]
If you need a reference, use this marker.

PRIOR EES pads: 
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul3-EES

=============== End of PRE-presentation notes

Michael Gelobter

See slides for cumulative emissions of Green House Gases
Before break down of Kyoto protocol, 
Only globally 

NGOs
Western people advised nations in the pacific
They watch China refuse to allow other coutries put in agression emissions cuts
I like that you have an aggressive target, but the target is unfair. 2.5 green house gas advantage to Germany

Global GDP (slide) in China because of colinization by western powers. 
2050-2060 there will be an aggressive population growth in India that equals that before the colonization

Ethical Moral Issues: 
Who is responsible historically

Climate Injustice is Rampant within the US & EU

Poor in US > use 30% less 

What happens if China comply's with Tibets coal 

Two biggest problems:
1. Tragedy of the Commons
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons
Elenor Ostrum wrote about this (won Nobel Prize)

2. Prisoner's Deliemma
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner's_dilemma

Price of the resource is directly influenced by the use. 

What kinds of policy problems or structures do we have to build to work with the ethical and political issues?

Mitigation: The Grand Tech-Challenges
70% of all environmental problems is caused by energy 
In developing world 

Common to say that the developing companies don't need to focus on energy consumption
Igores that energy poverty is a universal problem (Kenya walking 7 miles a day to get energy)

The largest human rights -women rights - is tied to energy in the developing world. Women have to walk long distances to fetch firewood for their families.

How do we radically increase energy use in poorer countries. 
Example: Cooking: 
To make them use the stoves, you make them in the communities. 
Understand how stoves are adopted and how long they last, they can actually quantify how much the carbon reductions are and make additional revenue for the families for the stoves. 
1/2 the family income is spent on energy
One stove per family doubles family income
Generates good carbon offsets. 
Reduces cancer
Stops deforestation
(Amazing little technologies helps in many areas)

Electricity:
Lack of reliable electricity. Major issue as large parts of a big city like Mumbai has electricity about 5-10 hrs a day.
Kenya and India have huge demand for the new technologies like solar power

Two issues:
Centralized and De-Centralized
(see slides)

Water: 
Issues of quantity, quality. India has made great progress in water availability and utilization for consumption and agriculture.
20M 3-4 watt agricultural pumps in India alone

A lot of water slavery

Urban Transportation:
Worry about nano buses, not nano cars. Has 70 - 80 cars per 1,000 compared to 800 to 1,000 in the USA.

Energy
Still an issue

Adaptation:
Low elevation coastal zones are expected to be under water in 50 years
Salt water intrusion has lead to wide 

Huge available textile industry (moved to Bangladesh) 40% of communities w/textile industries are getting draught. 
8 Vat changes a day between two or three different colors, no time to plan or project. 
Supply chains are highly innovated for supply, but 
70,80,90 percent of water use simply by scheduling your water use. 

Surat: 80 cities will face droughts on a regular basis.
50% of Mumbai's treatment is treated every day
Sea Level and changes in altitude is important part of the physics in keeping clean water.
Estimates of 5M global warming refugees predicted for the future. This is mainly because poor people tend to live in areas that get easily flooded.
Advocay in the UN that developed countries should pay their \"guilt\" money in addition to futire payments to compensate for past emmissions.
You can not invent it here and expect it will deployed widely in the developing world. The markets, cultures, and context is different. 
Commercial context - Ethical businsee where powerful marketers exist, protectionist 
Only 5% of people who need pumps have them

Context is everything.
Example: Sol Griffith's design. (don't know name) replaces gallons of kerasyne with three minutes of biking. Amazing design and very effecients and huge amount of thought.
Didn't sell the technology because many reaons, one way is because the companies that could manf. already liked what they were making. 
Could not find a single way to deploy they couldn't find a way to sell it. 
Huge advances in information advances, but not in energy. 

Adaptation. How do you help companies adapt to climate change. 

The reason that you're going into disruptive technologies is because you are changing a country and eventually power dynamics
Do not ignore what you are going to be changing 

The Present System is Much Worse than Where We're Headed!!!!

Spending $3 trillion on protecting oil a year - don't ever feel like you're rocking the boat because it's being rocked like crap right now. You have to be humble but you need to be able to point the finger at what the problem is today. When you're fighting incumbents that are a hundred years old, there is a lot to be fighting.

ANDREW **** PRIVATE TALK - DO NOT QUOTE, DISTRIBUTE OR SHARE ***

Department of Energy
Help guide people to energy effeciency, 
Significant amount of money being invested in energy efficiency
about $80B went to energy. $36B to clean energy....

Behavior change

Domestic Landscape:

Of $11.5M dollar,s three projects: weatherizing homes.
Weatherization System Program

The Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) enables low-income families to permanently reduce their energy bills by making their homes more energy efficient.
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/wip/wap.html
doing 110M homes in US, 80B square feet of commerical space
Median home built in 1970's Less effecient than home right now
If you want to touch a lot of homes, not just new homes but retrofit older homes

#1 touching many homes as can
5M dollar program
New engagements with communities in this area - especially areas affected by the economic crisis

State Energy Program $3M to states

Energy Effeciency Conservation
2500 Grantees
Folks on ground trying to put energy effeciency into action

Funding to DOE is removed, so here they work directly with the
Retro 

New space trying to explore, best time to be in Energy and Climate in this US history, So much money 16.8B dollars, leadership understands. 

Climate, Energy, Economic security all work together, hand and hand. Working with speed, scale and deployment. 

Retro Fit Vamp???? 
DOE to Fund up to $454 Million for Retrofit Ramp-Ups in Energy Efficiency
http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/news/daily.cfm/hp_news_id=202
Pay all upfront cost 
Using as a test bed for: new innovative test diagram structures

PACE Financing: Cutting Edge
Right now testing new business models, the energy effeciency model is completely segmented. 
Home RetroFit is installing energy effecient measures to reduce energy 20-30%, not many people know about this and its invisible (ceilings, walls). You don't see it. It's invisible.

Investing a lot in education outreach and streamlining entire market. If you want to get a retrofit done, need an energy audit - where are you most innefficient?
Most people don't know what they are spending on energy. In the coming years more people will understand their energy use.

Alison: Are you helping fund smart sensors and systems to understand at a more integrated level?
cont...ANDREW **** PRIVATE TALK - DO NOT QUOTE, DISTRIBUTE OR SHARE ***

We are spending $4-5B on smart sensors, meters. 20M installed in USA now

Market for energy efficiency doesn't really exist. After energy audit, get recommendations but then you need to find contractors for each area - floors, windows, ceilings...

There are hundreds of dollars everywhere (figuratively) in energy efficiencies..

The aim of the DOE is to lower those barriers. Allow the contractors to be able to pick all the $100 all at the same time off the ceiling, walls, insulation etc without having to be specialised in just one area.
This is where to innovate right now, to make it easy for the consumer, right now. 
HUGE Implementation problem

Communications: Lots of energy market is home by home. Now working neighborhoods/communities

There are energy savings also in your behaviors

How to develop the programs that change these behaviors?

Communication models are going to be settings up how things are set up not only here but other places on the planet

We don\u2019t yet know how much these technologies are saving.

DARPAe - $450M goes to funding for really immerging stage energy efficieny technologies.

This money isn't going to last. Need private financing. Set up the stage for this to happen
cont...ANDREW **** PRIVATE TALK - DO NOT QUOTE, DISTRIBUTE OR SHARE ***

(EPad died, but here are my notes when it was gone - Alison)
Not happening as fast is the user interaction and behavior changes we are making. We are not rational people, we make irrational decisions, the environments we are in often shape the ways that we make. 

Build an environment that would engender energy savings. 

Install, energy efficient measures, but still leave lights on and lave windows open, then you loose. 
Thinking about behavior change with policies and programs
Very interesting area that is starting to emerge. 
A lot of unknowns and uncertainties, money to test this right now and community engagement models. 
One of the priorities is not just here, but around the world. 
Key negotiation is between USA and other countries is technology 

end...ANDREW **** PRIVATE TALK - DO NOT QUOTE, DISTRIBUTE OR SHARE ***
10:23 Break

EES CL4 Geoengineering Edge Issues: 
Sequestration, Geoengineering, Mitigation and Adaption 
Dan Whaley/Leinert CEO of Climose

Email link to the presentation in our emails. Michio Kaku video, string theorist. Brings math to the Lay Person. 
We will be Type 1 organisms in 100 years. 

Should humans be in charge of the planet? Should we/could we be the ones responsible for reducing the risk of climate change and stewards of the planet on our path to something greater? 

Geoengineering: from civil engineers: lower greenhouse gases or offsetting

Where it fits in the ecosystems
See the Caldeira, 2009 chart example in slides

Can we take C02 and reduce amount released and reduce the amount in the atmosphere, while we get our \"earth house\" in order. 
C02 bathtub analagy with tipping point - bathtub
Geoengineering techniques are trying to open drain, build a higher lip, or fill it slower until we find a more long term solution

Options. 
Remove greenhouse gases
- biological approaches (requires less energy and 
- chemical approaches (more costly less effective)

Reflecting sunlight into space
- space based, putting solar shades pointing back
- stratosphere 
- troposphere
- surface 
See pictoral representation in slides (Vaughn and Lenton (2009)

\"There is no planet B\" slide. 

Geoengineering has been getting attention at the highest level - chiefs of green peace

Does the plan have flaws? (slide 23, location of items on the diagram)

Oft Raised questions: only deploy in an emergency, how do you define emergency?
If we have a geostat, what temperature will we set it to?

Of the 700B tons of CO2 that turn over annually, plankton process about 45%

Marine snow, constant stream of biological matter falling to ocean floor. This creates a current. Turning CO2 into carbonite. This is what has helped cool the planet over millions of years.

Saw tooths in iron correspond to draw down of CO2

When iron is high, ocean is productive.

1993, first project to spread iron sulfate over 5km. Hung around for a week, saw growth of plankton. 

Hypotheses are evolving, what would be effect of adding iron to the ocean at the scale of effecting climate change? Will have to do it for a long time... 30% of ocean surface covered, 30-50ppm CO2 reduction. 387ppm now vs 280ppm pre-industrial. Only need to add 1/100th of a drop per 100,000 gallons. $1-5 a ton

Evergreen aviation is a company used for firefighting and may be used to drop the iron into a test project in asia.

Computing power is needed for the complicated mathmatical problems used to understand/evaluate the affects of iron in the ocean on the enviroment. 

11:43
We've found planets, Jupiter sized. Nothing like Earth yet.
How do we get the Energy we talked about last week.
How do we get it in abundance without destroying the Earth's biosphere?

Nature gives us some concentrated energy resources.
Predominant sources in the US are fossil fuels.
Unique properties -
Gasoline is a bargain at $5 per gallon.
15x energy content as TNT.
1000x energy density of flashlight batteries.
Fossil fuels are cheap.
Handout slides will be available Monday.
Physics for Future Presidents. (must read book)
Energy Surprises - buy just for that chapter.
Compare coal to AAA battery.
Touch on - real difference between energy running lights and fuel.
Fuel concentrates energy.Chemical fuels have special utility.
More energy into biofuels than you get out -- meaningless. Who cares.
Another reference you will get:
M. King Hubbert. 1956 paper.
Ran into it a few years ago. Amazing how contemporary it is.
US oil production peak in 1970.
Mathematician.
His predictions generally say oil recovery will look like over next 200 years.
Lot of oil left. Have used a little more than half.
We'd rather not use it from a carbon perspective.
But it will be around. Uniquely useful for powering vehicles.
Also did peak production for coal. It runs out in about 700 years.
It is going to be there.
Lot of people in extraction/utilization. Not necessarily evil. 
A lot of them very engaged in finding ways to use without harming biosphere.
1956 paper - we live in this tiny slice of time - era of fossil fuels.
From time when we didn't use them, to this time of low hanging fruit, 
gave us the power of 20-30 people.
Can we use this to get to the next level?
Energy will be relatively abundant through your lifetimes and your grandchildren.
Will become more expensive.
Cost should consider cost of cleanup - which it does not now.
We are concerned with CO2 emissions.
2% aviation.
People are trying to use climate policy for other purposes. People against airports - discovered no one cares about noise, but people do care about global warming.
US transportation - almost all of that is cars.
If you make cars 100 mpg you dramatically effect that slice.
Home cooking/lighting are really small.
Cars are big thing.
Electricity generation from coal - 
Electricity is just a transfer mechanism.
NOT \"My house is powered by electricity\"
My house is powered by coal at 6 cents per kW hour.
Coal is cheap.
EPA - Environmental Protection Agency.
TerraGram - a million metric tons.
A cubic meter of water weighs a metric ton.
A million of those is about 2-3x the US capital.
How much CO2 from all aviation compared to OHare Airport
US output is 50 blocks that size overall.
Flow chart shows \"who is doing what to who\"
Keeling curve - measures of CO2 in HI.
Seasonal teeth in this chart - vegetation absorbs CO2. Northern Hemisphere.
Interesting thing is the decreases - what about planting more plants.
Encourage plant growth in the oceans.
Synthetic diamond trees that will grow on atmospheric CO2.
- Harvesting Carbon from the Air
Algae
Catalytic chemistry and concentrated sunlight. Bind CO2. Sandia/ Battel?
-Two Ways to Reduce Electricity's Carbon Footprint

We live like Kings.
A lot of people - 1/3 - have energy poverty.
One thing you can do is use alternative energy.
Nuclear.
Finland approved just last week.
ISU in Sweden in 1995. Moratorium passed.
Built waste storage facility.
Reversed themselves: better nuclear than carbon.
Getting over their \"religious\" objection to nuclear.
If you look from quantitative perspective, nuclear is a lot more interesting than we might have thought.
If it comes down to feeding or not feeding people, we might consider nuclear.
Not my favorite. But I have one in my backyard.
See David Roberts for micro nukes.
- \"New\" Nuclear
Canada looked into different kind of reactor.
They built CANDU [ref]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANDU_reactor
Interesting thing: can burn nuclear fuel that is much more abundant than Uranium. Uses Thorium. If you burn 5% of Thorium, you could run the planet for 30,000 years at 10x current energy use level.

China looking into this.

Fusion. I'm in my mid-50s. Heard it was just around the corner.
Fusion is the power source of the future - and it always will be.
We are trying to arrange visit to NIF [ref]
Using lots of lasers to implode.
Similar effort in Europe.
Don't know how to do it yet in controlled conditions.

Renewables are appealing. Something for nothing. Energy flowing past us freely.
You may see windmills on way to NIF.
Huge prolifertaion - suffer from intermittancy.
Solar has day/night.
Wind has choatic nature of weather.
Grid issue.
Mismatch between where wind is and transmission.

Here is a nuclear reactor I trust. 4.5 billion years.
\"Sun will explode\"
New sun power. Use heat from the sun to take the place of burning fossil fuels by making steam.
It is just pipes and mirrors - cheap.
To exponentially increase,
Bill Gross of idealab fame are working on 
Parabolic collectors.
If lots of hot water, form of energy storage that is not bad.
By the time you have kids your age, available to have things charge themselves if left in sun.
Really cheap solar - like printing newspapers.
Fundamental problem - it is dark half the time.
The Earth gets in the way.
Storage.
We don't have it. Game changer that would make renewables possilbe for baseload power. To the extent it exists, they are in 7 forms:
Lift
- utility scale - we lift water. Thailand to Missouri. Reservoirs on plateaus.
Let run back downhill for peak load supply.
MO pretty flat. But old island.
Big aboveground swimming pool. Doesn't that look like it could leak?
Entire reservior leaked out, wrecked park. Pair of 250 MW turbines.
About 66% efficient. Some as high as 75%.
Very highly efficient turbines.
Motors are already very good.

System like this is very expensive, but if you have these you don't have to build the peak power plant. Peak is most expensive power. Developed world incentives to cut peak power use. Cheaper for them to sell you less.

Spin
- you can rotate something and generate power
[hand held grip-style flashlight ref]
Exact same - look how much longer LED version lasts.
Kinetic storage
LEDs are 90% versus incandescent - 90%heat.
Battery can be employed in that.

Bigger scale. Beacon Power near MIT. Device about the size of two stacked recycling bins. Spins air around. this is in a vacuum envirnoment. Magnetic bearing, very efficient. Only about 6 kW hours. 1 kW is 1000 watts. Two bright lights there would run for 1-3 hours.
So, what do you use it for? Load leveling. Keep grid behaving the way you want.
Helpful if you are running computers, for example.
Could be used for prime storage.

Must be strong. Nanotech - diamond core.
Materials issue.

Heat
a stirling engine.
Hot liquids are easily stored. Thermos. Styrofoam cup. Nano would help here too.
Cold 
\"Make hay when the sun shines\"
\"Make ice while the moon shines\" - make ice to cool building
Ancient Iranian trick to make ice in the desert from earth.

\"Cook\"
Chemistry is great way to get storage. 
Batteries are less good but effective way. 
Car battery weighs 20-30 kilos. Can store energy from motor.
Same as energy in small candy bar.
If you want energy out as electricity, hard to get so small.
If you don't need battery - big tanks of stuff to react reactants. More? Just add more tanks. Look up Vanadium FlowBatteries [ref]

Best batteries are in you laptops. Roll up lithium.
XPrize for electric aircraft - training planes.
To our surprise, this came from China. Everybody can fly.
Lift/drag - 40 knots most efficient.
$15 / hour.
$3 for electricity. Rest amortizing the battery pack. Good for ... then bought back and recycled.
Flying is hard. Enabled by internal combustion engine in early 1900s. Extacting stored energy. 

Another mechanism. Two plates - capacitance.
In tech museum store in San Jose: air hogs toys [ref]
Little electric airplanes - recharge in 10 seconds - not battery, capacitor.
People talk about Ultracapacitors. Systems that look more llike batteries than capacitors.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_double-layer_capacitor
Capacitors and batteries require surface area. Put more area in small areas. Talk to Ralph Merkle. Nano-tech ultracapacitors.
Batteries - best work in S. Korea. Using nano-tech derived electrodes in batteries. 
They exist now.

Squeeze
Compress air. Another mechanical way. Pump gets hot. Boyle's Law.
Usenaturally existing caverns at night when electricity is abundant.
Surprisingly effective.
Not light weight. but that dosn't always matter.
You could fly with it. video - 2 l water bottle launch. About 60m up. Just using compressed air.

Twist
One of the oldest ways. Old fashioned clock. Torsion. Mechanical properties of bending. Torsion powered flying vehicles [lauches rubber band powered balsa plane]

Steve Jervison? - with VC group.
Talking about system that uses reverse osmosis. Run backwards to extract energy.
Big tank of clean water - let it disorganize and get electricity.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osmotic_power

Prelim discussions - appliance? 
Why? Don't demand that of anything else except cell phone.
You don't care about mass, except relating to price.
Big rock? so what?
Big storage tank. Issue is cheap.
Trying to keep lights on. Keep vaccines cold.
We pay now. Fossil vs batteries- for mobile cheap power.
Lithum battery - you pay a lot.

Q: Where is peizo electric?
Bend crystal.
Not a power source. Way to convert mechanical energy to electricity.
Micro torsion devices company near MIT.
Bending little tiny fibers.

For those who want to talk more about diffence between kiloWatt and killer Whale can provide 30 minute intro.
Legal and financial reason not to worry about small and light
Furniture not covered by mortgage.
If Big and part of real estate, you can. Not a bad thing to be big and heavy.
If it \"smells\" like a swimming pool, banker might help finance it.

Future Storage
Anti-matter. Combine with matter, you get lots of energy out.
We know how to do that, but only nano-scale. Not nice stuff to have around.

- What to do till suitable storage breakthroughs exist?
- Big networks
Buckminster Fuller dymaxion globe. Solve map makers dilemma of how to make spherical world flat.
Look at this map, as Fuller did, interesting realization.
Draw line through bering straight - build intertie - 35 km.
Global Electric Network Inc (\"genie\") [ref]
Think about that and renewables. Solar cells in the Sahara feeding us in the dark over here.
When I was a college student - \"Let's get off the grid\" evil bad, centralized.
Except, we were wrong Grid is public good Share between haves/have not.
Being off grid trying to run a pump - not much you can do.
What changed hippies was to have electric companies buying back power. It is peak power. So it is agood thing. Meters running in two directions.
That convinced people who were against grid to join it.
Political issues about grids.
Condition where, if you voted against winners, your village didn't get power.
In the long run, we have to get to these transitions.
You live in this Transistion Time.
Ability to get power from your neighbor via networks.

As a result of Bob Metcalf coming, inventor of internet. Thinks we can move energy about the way we move information.
Not much smart gird. Big differences. Grid now is not peer to peer.
Consequently, almost all flows are one way.
Pipes are very different.
Dark fiber - unused capacity.
For electricity, no \"dark grid\" Grid is too skinny. 
Not enough capacity to move what we have now.
So, what if we could have benefits of solar power but not unfortunate cyclical power.
Well, we can. Places near earth where sun shines all the time.
Peter Glaser - no matter how hard he worked, he could not get around Earth being in the way.
High Earth Orbit.
His idea - let's collect energy in space. Turn it into radio frequency light. Beam to cities.
Show you demo.
From 1975.
Sent 30 kW of power across between towers.
One had rectennas (receiving antennas)
Half of energy thrown away in resistive loads.
wirelesspowertransmission and goldstone?
50 years of work on this and it works.
No more magical than TV show coming via satellite.
Purpose of sun power is to convey information. 
BUT we can send the energy if we want. Just need big structure in space.
Impetus work - just had oil embargo - 1973 scared people in the West very much. Frightening. US almost at peak oil production.
US is 3rd largest producer, but we import 60% of what we use.
US DOE and NASA - 50,000 ton satellites - launched from Earth.
Very bad placeto get things from. Worst place, except sun, for getting materials.
Earth's offshore island - the moon.
Turn picture of solar system so it looks like pool table.
Objects warp gravity. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBQHtF3WhMw&feature=player_embedded
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcNYJkPgAwg&feature=player_embedded

Gravity wells.
Earth has a nice deep gravity well. But we live near gravity dimple.
One step deep - vs Earth's 22 steps deep.
Push materials over the curve and let it roll down to here.
Space is not part of our home - even though we are surrounded by ocean of materials.
When Neil and Buzz took off from moon - only took top half. 
You can get off moon without a rocket.
Anyone own a rocket powered car? boat? Extremely expensive.
you can use mass drivers.
Eric Drexler - Engines of Creation [ref]
http://e-drexler.com/p/06/00/EOC_Cover.html
Maxwell's Equations on his t-shirt = MIT guy.
String of baseball sized objects within a 500 foot launcher.
What is there? O, H2O, ...
We've been there. Had prospectors there.
So close, humans can work on moon without leaving earth. 
Round trip 2.7 seconds.
Put in time delay, found people - even old folks adapt in 10 min
Young people take no time. They drive it.
Take 1 min to explore the two planet system you live in.
No biosphere. Good thing.
How far apart should they be?
Need two volunteers. Charles Atlas - you hold up the Earth. [a basketball]
Lost my moon.
Hw close should they be?
Most say 1 m.
2 wraps is geostationary orbit
10 wraps - really 9-1/2.
Part of pay for being here is to show your little brothers and sisters.
1.3 light seconds.
That is your neighborhood.
Distance to sun is 8 minutes.
Little computer board - Arduino.
I've preprogrammed it, it is talking to you in morse code \"SU\"
Program Arduino to delay signal 2.7 seconds. 
Rate of switching is 5 words per minute.
Win this XPrize pin.

Basic idea. Plant a seed of activity in space. Feed it with material from moon.
Build solar power satelites. First make copies of system elements.
Bob Friedas's [ref]
Robot in sea of robot parts making copy of itself.NASA has looked at how you might do this on the moon.
Literally exponential growth.
Take only smallest tool set you require. Make copies of your civilization.
Does not require nano.
Can do it with 60's technology.
What if Earth has abundant energy.
Collectors change albedo of earth.

We travel a lot.
Can you do flying without fuel? a light craft. Lasers around for 50 years.
Plane that heats air.
Fuel in 747 is only used to heat air.
You could heat air with laser.
Illustration of one woman space vehicle powered by laser beam coming from space.
Real copies of that exist. Just not that big [ref]
Lasers are now really cheap.
Solid state lasers obey Moore's Law.
Kare, George - banks of lasers on ground to launch.
Nano is great, but you can do this soon to get into Space.
Solar pumps in space.
List of books:
Gerard O'Neill. Giving this to Jose. [ref]
Wonderful.
Solar sails pushed by light photos.
These sails are pushed by radio waves.

- Approaching the Energy Singularity
Moving one 747 from London to New York uses same energy of 1066 England - total.

Limit will be heat.
If everybody had 10-20x. Be careful about combustion products.
Comes down to policy.
If we don't tax for putting carbon in, it won't be cost effective to do these other things.
We need to make the conscious choice to save our planet.
Smaley.
- Energy Gamechagers
Carbon
Harvested Carbon Fuels
\"New\" nuclear
Cost revolution in renewables
Storage
Ultragrid
Power from Space

- [photo of Earth]
Here is what is at stake. Yours and your kids.

Changed from being a lawyer. Not rearranging marbles in a zero sum game.
The sun is too generous to us.
The game is all about energy. Space has a lot to do with it.
Energy has never been so exciting.
Energy basics later.
12:59 [applause]
Q:Dmitry. Exponential decay of laser price? How compared to microwaves?

Will give you Kare's paper.
Cost now is much lower.

Microwaves - radio energy - extremely efficient 83% at received end. Compare to really good solar cells of 20%. Looks like chain link fence laying on the ground.
Energy density is less than sunlight.
Lasers let you start small.
Others need to be big.
For one encampment - can use laser today.

Q: 
Key leverage point for accelerating energy singularity.
Great question.
What is big barrier?
Low cost of non-renewable energy.
By using dirty energy without cleaning up. So abundant. Not a good economic incentive to do the investments in the technology. Doing it even though it doesn't pay off yet.

Q: Chiara: ...
Why not Thorium today?
Uranium was low hanging fruit.
Canada had a cheaper kind of Uranium available.
Burning Thorium is new. Inertia. Big companies at lead in US, built different kind of reactor.
Navies built pressurized water reactors.
When you look at it, evey country in the world has Thorium.
1:04 [applause]
Peter had inspiration to do XPrize from book about Lindbergh.
Gregg gave him the book.

At lunch with Gregg:

Ceramic Houses
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceramic_houses
http://www.kheper.net/parameters/pages/ceramic_houses.html

Daniel Yergin, The Prize
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Yergin
http://www.amazon.com/Prize-Epic-Quest-Money-Power/dp/0671799320

Steve Jergeson?
Reverse Osmosis Energy Store
http://www.icrepq.com/icrepq'10/631-Salazar.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pressure-retarded_osmosis
Osmotic Power - how does it work?
http://www.statkraft.com/energy-sources/osmotic-power/default.aspx

http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/renewables

Solar plane soars for 24 hours
By Eliane Engeler
The Associated Press
Experimental aircraft collects enough energy in daylight to stay up all night
http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20100709/flight09_st.art.htm

2:07 Gregg's presentation continues in 583C:
2:20
- What is WORK.
In old days, had source of energy, had to locate business there.
Water wheels.
- Mechanical Power Transmission
Moved 10s of meters.
- How do we measure rate of energy (power)?
James Watt, inventor of steam engine
One horsepower - in old English system, moving 1 pound object 550 feet.
or a 550 pound object moved 1 foot in 1 second.
- Horsepower relates to cars now.
- One Kilowatt.
A watt is one joule per second.
One joule is lifting an apple up off the table.
One bright incadescent bulb is 100 watts. 10 of those is a kilowatt.
- 1 kilowatt=1.34 horsepower
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watt
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilowatt_hour
-
-
-
- Nimitz aircraft carrier
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nimitz_class_aircraft_carrier
Has a billion and a half horse power nuclear reactor
- Kilowatt is a rate. For an hour, kW-hour - run 10, 100 Watt lightbulb for an hour
Amazing how cheap you can buy that. One coin from your pocket.

Gary: how many kilowatts in a joule?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joule
Bryce: how many joules per horsepower?
1 joule / second

- Wouldn't it be great if ...
Move mechanical energy to somewhere else.
Enter Benjamin Franklin. My favorite. His sense of humor so bad they would not let him write the Dec of Inde because he would put puns in it.

- Not in my back yard.
\"NIMBY\"
I don't want that powerplant in my back yard.
-BANANA
Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anyone

- Three main ways to get electrons moving
1/ Move a magnet near a wire
2/ battery. dissimilar
3/ solar cell - shine light on semiconductor junction Photo voltaics

- other ways
Heat junction - thermocouple. Radio-isotope Thermal Generator - used on all deep space probes.

Squeeze a crystal - piezoelectric - example: gas lighter makes spark.

Q: What kind of experiment left on moon?
That was power source to allow on-going experiments.
Passive laser retro reflector is all that is still working on moon.

-Princeton Piezo heel
Old radios used energy of 80 iPods. Tubes required 20 Watts each.

Marko: Charge wirelessly?

That kind of wireless energy - inductive.
This is not wireless - you'd need wire running up leg.
- Move a coil of wire in a magnetic field.
Take sensitive volt meter, just wave magnet around.
Note that wires here are moving and have contacts. That's a weak point.
Alternatively, Spin magnets instead of wire. That's what you do in your car.

Where do you get energy to turn the crank.
Number 1 way we get energy is heat difference, or waterfall.
- [aerial photo of coal fired power plant on Missouri river]
Power generator in my backyard.
Low sulfur coal.
You can see the big coal pile.
Trains - uni-trains. 120-130 cars, just piles of coal.
2.4 Gigawatts.
Back to the Future.
\"jigga\" or Gig-a-watt
What's the difference between a dead squirrel and a dead accordian player on the road?
It is possible the squirrel was on the way to a paid gig.

- Turning the crank with steam from burning coal.
Source of high temp.
Need also a source of low temperature.
- Turbine in Labadie Power Plant
Looks very much like a jet engine 
[roar outside of passing jet]
Right on cue!

These are about 30% efficient converting heat to electrical energy.
70% goes up the stack.
Theoretically, higher.
Secret part of plant is the river. Providing cooling water.
Think of it as a waterfall.
How far does it drop.
In theory, to make it work best, to get perfect Carnot efficiency, the cold side would be at absolute zero.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnot_efficiency#Efficiency

- Baldwin Lake. 1.7 Gigawatt plant near Sparta, IL.
- US Sources of Elec.
Half coal
20% nuclear
20% nat gas
7% hydro
1.6% oil
Which country has most on a percentage basis? France 70%.

Chicago - gets to 30 below F.
You need power or you die when it is this cold.
Favorite solution - space solar power.
- The Power Grid - Electrical Magic?

- [photo of transmission pylons]
You have losses. Mostly as heat.
Whole grid is designed to minimize those loses.
Change characteristics of power. Change back and distribute to end users.
Like the way gears work.

- Current vs Voltage.
Use a water analogy.
You are familiar with static electricity.
Van de Graaf - high voltage, low current
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Van_de_Graaff_generator

Current - amp
Pressure of electricity is measured in volts

River, moving slowly, moving lots of water.

High voltage, high current powerline will turn you into charred carbon and smoke.

- Names of Electrical Terms

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volt
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ampere
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watt

- Transformers: Electric gears

Think of magnetic field like blowing up a balloon.
When you make one grow on one coil, it can be taken out 

- The Real Transformers

Resistance loss depending on current flow.
Jack up voltage, minimze current.

-
- Grid-a major \"public good\"
This month's National Geographic article. Mostly about future grids.
186,500 miles (300,000 km of grid)

The 21st Century Grid
Can we fix the infrastructure that powers our lives?
By Joel Achenbach
Photograph by Joe McNally
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2010/07/power-grid/achenbach-text

There are times when your electricity may come from 1000 miles away.

- Overview of the Grid
You have to overbuild.
Getting more and more expensive.

- Storage. Not impossible
-
- Taum Sauk Pumped Storage
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taum_Sauk_Hydroelectric_Power_Station
- [photos]
Amerind UE
Important asset to them.
Paid a lot of money to fix damage.

- Consequences of lack of storage.
Utilities are not evil. They are owned by rate payers.
Intermittent sources are hard to integrate.

- Full circle - steam kettle to kettle.
How efficient from 1800's device? Very!
This machine wants heat. So you get good results.
- table of things and their power use
Microwave Oven - 1500 watts, but not used for long.
Well pump - 1500 watts.
You can see lights dim in your house when you kick on your hair dryer.

- In houses.
Lighting is 10%
Water heating is pretty large 10%
Cooling of air 17%
Kitchen appliances 29%
People think, \"if i change lightbulbs\"

- In offices
Lighting is 44%.
Buildings - people.
Energy considered free. Big windows. not how you design buildings if energy costs a lot of money.
European hotel - corridor is dark. Infrared sensor turns light on.
No power in room until I put my key in the door.

- New use of electricity.
Moving information. Servers. Big users of electricity.
Spinning drives around? No. Cooling systems.
Some companies who have lots of servers starting to put server farms along Columbia River Valley.
At speed of light, you don't care.
Lots of pipes for information, not so much for electricity.
All servers in the world use about same energy as the Netherlands.

- Light bulb. 19th century device.
You don't care, at the end of the day, until you get the bill.
What gets the job done?
10 % light, 90% heat.
LED is much better.
Cost - capital cost to acquire. 
LED is simple in principle, fancy expensive factories to make.

Flourescent vs LED?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fluorescent_lamp
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LED_light

- Electricity
Some people will never switch, don't have money to make change.

Q: In Europe, cannot buy the old style bulb any more.
US has just passed a law, but no body knows it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_incandescent_light_bulbs
Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 ?
The efficiency standards will start with 100-watt bulbs in January 2012 and end with 40-watt bulbs in January 2014.

Big reason people move to cities is to have power.
Rural electrification:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rural_electrification
for light and laundry

Until people saw things made from lunar materials, they would not believe it.

Until people saw \"radio flashlight\" they didn't believe it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Tesla
3:31
http://www.johnmcphee.com/curve.htm
http://www.amazon.com/Curve-Binding-Energy-Alarming-Theodore/dp/0374515980
\"Ted Taylor is a theoretical physicist who was for many years a conceptual designer of atomic bombs. At Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory, he conceived and designed the largest-yield fission bomb ever exploded by any nation. Another of his bombs was, in its time, the lightest and smallest ever made.
Taylor later became the leader of a secret scientific effort, financed by the federal government, to make a spaceship the size of a sixteen-story building. The ship was of his invention and was to be called Orion. Powered by two thousand atomic bombs, exploding one at a time, it would move very rapidly to Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, and Pluto. The Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty of 1963 ended the project (but if human beings ever achieve travel much beyond the moon, some such vehicle will carry them).\"

Three Gorges Dam
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Gorges_Dam
Just over 4 solar power satellites.

3:46
Go over books one more time:
2081
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2081:_A_Hopeful_View_of_the_Human_Future

New Yorker Magazine, Elizabeth Kobert
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/07/07/080707fa_fact_kolbert

A REPORTER AT LARGETHE ISLAND IN THE WINDA Danish community\u2019s victory over carbon emissions.by Elizabeth KolbertJULY 7, 2008
TEXT SIZE:SMALL TEXTMEDIUM TEXTLARGE TEXT
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Once people on Sams\u00f8 started thinking about energy, a local farmer explains, \u201cit became a kind of sport.\u201d Photograph by Joachim Ladefoged.
RELATED LINKSSlide Show: Photographs of the Danish island of Sams\u00f8, by Joachim Ladefoged.
KEYWORDSClimate Change; Global Warming; Sams\u00f8;Denmark; Tranberg, J\u00f8rgen; Energy Reform;2,000-Watt Society
J\u00f8rgen Tranberg is a farmer who lives on the Danish island of Sams\u00f8. He is a beefy man with a mop of brown hair and an unpredictable sense of humor. When I arrived at his house, one gray morning this spring, he was sitting in his kitchen, smoking a cigarette and watching grainy images on a black-and-white TV. The images turned out to be closed-circuit shots from his barn. One of his cows, he told me, was about to give birth, and he was keeping an eye on her. We talked for a few minutes, and then, laughing, he asked me if I wanted to climb his wind turbine. I was pretty sure I didn\u2019t, but I said yes anyway.
We got into Tranberg\u2019s car and bounced along a rutted dirt road. The turbine loomed up in front of us. When we reached it, Tranberg stubbed out his cigarette and opened a small door in the base of the tower. Inside were eight ladders, each about twenty feet tall, attached one above the other. We started up, and were soon huffing. Above the last ladder, there was a trapdoor, which led to a sort of engine room. We scrambled into it, at which point we were standing on top of the generator. Tranberg pressed a button, and the roof slid open to reveal the gray sky and a patchwork of green and brown fields stretching toward the sea. He pressed another button. The rotors, which he had switched off during our climb, started to turn, at first sluggishly and then much more rapidly. It felt as if we were about to take off. I\u2019d like to say the feeling was exhilarating; in fact, I found it sickening. Tranberg looked at me and started to laugh.
Sams\u00f8, which is roughly the size of Nantucket, sits in what\u2019s known as the Kattegat, an arm of the North Sea. The island is bulgy in the south and narrows to a bladelike point in the north, so that on a map it looks a bit like a woman\u2019s torso and a bit like a meat cleaver. It has twenty-two villages that hug the narrow streets; out back are fields where farmers grow potatoes and wheat and strawberries. Thanks to Denmark\u2019s peculiar geography, Sams\u00f8 is smack in the center of the country and, at the same time, in the middle of nowhere.
For the past decade or so, Sams\u00f8 has been the site of an unlikely social movement. When it began, in the late nineteen-nineties, the island\u2019s forty-three hundred inhabitants had what might be described as a conventional attitude toward energy: as long as it continued to arrive, they weren\u2019t much interested in it. Most Samsingers heated their houses with oil, which was brought in on tankers. They used electricity imported from the mainland via cable, much of which was generated by burning coal. As a result, each Samsinger put into the atmosphere, on average, nearly eleven tons of carbon dioxide annually.

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Then, quite deliberately, the residents of the island set about changing this. They formed energy co\u00f6peratives and organized seminars on wind power. They removed their furnaces and replaced them with heat pumps. By 2001, fossil-fuel use on Sams\u00f8 had been cut in half. By 2003, instead of importing electricity, the island was exporting it, and by 2005 it was producing from renewable sources more energy than it was using.
The residents of Sams\u00f8 that I spoke to were clearly proud of their accomplishment. All the same, they insisted on their ordinariness. They were, they noted, not wealthy, nor were they especially well educated or idealistic. They weren\u2019t even terribly adventuresome. \u201cWe are a conservative farming community\u201d is how one Samsinger put it. \u201cWe are only normal people,\u201d Tranberg told me. \u201cWe are not some special people.\u201d
his year, the world is expected to burn through some thirty-one billion barrels of oil, six billion tons of coal, and a hundred trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The combustion of these fossil fuels will produce, in aggregate, some four hundred quadrillion B.T.U.s of energy. It will also yield around thirty billion tons of carbon dioxide. Next year, global consumption of fossil fuels is expected to grow by about two per cent, meaning that emissions will rise by more than half a billion tons, and the following year consumption is expected to grow by yet another two per cent.
When carbon dioxide is released into the air, about a third ends up, in relatively short order, in the oceans. (CO2 dissolves in water to form a weak acid; this is the cause of the phenomenon known as \u201cocean acidification.\u201d) A quarter is absorbed by terrestrial ecosystems\u2014no one is quite sure exactly how or where\u2014and the rest remains in the atmosphere. If current trends in emissions continue, then sometime within the next four or five decades the chemistry of the oceans will have been altered to such a degree that many marine organisms\u2014including reef-building corals\u2014will be pushed toward extinction. Meanwhile, atmospheric CO2 levels are projected to reach five hundred and fifty parts per million\u2014twice pre-industrial levels\u2014virtually guaranteeing an eventual global temperature increase of three or more degrees. The consequences of this warming are difficult to predict in detail, but even broad, conservative estimates are terrifying: at least fifteen and possibly as many as thirty per cent of the planet\u2019s plant and animal species will be threatened; sea levels will rise by several feet; yields of crops like wheat and corn will decline significantly in a number of areas where they are now grown as staples; regions that depend on glacial runoff or seasonal snowmelt\u2014currently home to more than a billion people\u2014will face severe water shortages; and what now counts as a hundred-year drought will occur in some parts of the world as frequently as once a decade.
Today, with CO2 levels at three hundred and eighty-five parts per million, the disruptive impacts of climate change are already apparent. The Arctic ice cap, which has shrunk by half since the nineteen-fifties, is melting at an annual rate of twenty-four thousand square miles, meaning that an expanse of ice the size of West Virginia is disappearing each year. Over the past ten years, forests covering a hundred and fifty million acres in the United States and Canada have died from warming-related beetle infestations. It is believed that rising temperatures are contributing to the growing number of international refugees\u2014\u201cClimate change is today one of the main drivers of forced displacement,\u201d the United Nations\u2019 high commissioner for refugees, Ant\u00f3nio Guterres, said recently\u2014and to armed conflict: some experts see a link between the fighting in Darfur, which has claimed as many as three hundred thousand lives, and changes in rainfall patterns in equatorial Africa.
\u201cIf we keep going down this path, the Darfur crisis will be only one crisis among dozens of others,\u201d President Nicolas Sarkozy, of France, told a meeting of world leaders in April. The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon, has called climate change \u201cthe defining challenge of our age.\u201d
In the context of this challenge, Sams\u00f8\u2019s accomplishments could be seen as trivial. Certainly, in numerical terms they don\u2019t amount to much: all the island\u2019s avoided emissions of the past ten years are overwhelmed by the CO2 that a single coal-fired power plant will emit in the next three weeks, and China is building new coal-fired plants at the rate of roughly four a month. But it is also in this context that the island\u2019s efforts are most significant. Sams\u00f8 transformed its energy systems in a single decade. Its experience suggests how the carbon problem, as huge as it is, could be dealt with, if we were willing to try.
ams\u00f8 set out to reinvent itself thanks to a series of decisions that it had relatively little to do with. The first was made by the Danish Ministry of Environment and Energy in 1997. The ministry, looking for ways to promote innovation, decided to sponsor a renewable-energy contest. In order to enter, a community had to submit a plan showing how it could wean itself off fossil fuels. An engineer who didn\u2019t actually live on Sams\u00f8 thought the island would make a good candidate. In consultation with Sams\u00f8\u2019s mayor, he drew up a plan and submitted it. When it was announced that Sams\u00f8 had won, the general reaction among residents was puzzlement. \u201cI had to listen twice before I believed it,\u201d one farmer told me.
The brief surge of interest that followed the announcement soon dissipated. Besides its designation as Denmark\u2019s \u201crenewable-energy island,\u201d Sams\u00f8 received basically nothing\u2014no prize money or special tax breaks, or even government assistance. One of the few people on the island to think the project was worth pursuing was S\u00f8ren Hermansen.
Hermansen, who is now forty-nine, is a trim man with close-cropped hair, ruddy cheeks, and dark-blue eyes. He was born on Sams\u00f8 and, save for a few stints away, to travel and go to university, has lived there his entire life. His father was a farmer who grew, among other things, beets and parsley. Hermansen, too, tried his hand at farming\u2014he took over the family\u2019s hundred acres when his father retired\u2014but he discovered he wasn\u2019t suited to it. \u201cI like to talk, and vegetables don\u2019t respond,\u201d he told me. He leased his fields to a neighbor and got a job teaching environmental studies at a local boarding school. Hermansen found the renewable-energy-island concept intriguing. When some federal money was found to fund a single staff position, he became the project\u2019s first employee.
For months, which stretched into years, not much happened. \u201cThere was this conservative hesitating, waiting for the neighbor to do the move,\u201d Hermansen recalled. \u201cI know the community and I know this is what usually happens.\u201d Rather than working against the islanders\u2019 tendency to look to one another, Hermansen tried to work with it.
\u201cOne reason to live here can be social relations,\u201d he said. \u201cThis renewable-energy project could be a new kind of social relation, and we used that.\u201d Whenever there was a meeting to discuss a local issue\u2014any local issue\u2014Hermansen attended and made his pitch. He asked Samsingers to think about what it would be like to work together on something they could all be proud of. Occasionally, he brought free beer along to the discussions. Meanwhile, he began trying to enlist the support of the island\u2019s opinion leaders. \u201cThis is where the hard work starts, convincing the first movers to be active,\u201d he said. Eventually, much as Hermansen had hoped, the social dynamic that had stalled the project began to work in its favor. As more people got involved, that prompted others to do so. After a while, enough Samsingers were participating that participation became the norm.
\u201cPeople on Sams\u00f8 started thinking about energy,\u201d Ingvar J\u00f8rgensen, a farmer who heats his house with solar hot water and a straw-burning furnace, told me. \u201cIt became a kind of sport.\u201d
\u201cIt\u2019s exciting to be a part of this,\u201d Brian Kj\u00e6r, an electrician who installed a small-scale turbine in his back yard, said. Kj\u00e6r\u2019s turbine, which is seventy-two feet tall, generates more current than his family of three can use, and also more than the power lines leading away from his house can handle, so he uses the excess to heat water, which he stores in a tank that he rigged up in his garage. He told me that one day he would like to use the leftover electricity to produce hydrogen, which could potentially run a fuel-cell car.
\u201cS\u00f8ren, he has talked again and again, and slowly it\u2019s spread to a lot of people,\u201d he said.
ince becoming the \u201crenewable energy island,\u201d Sams\u00f8 has increasingly found itself an object of study. Researchers often travel great distances to get there, a fact that is not without its own irony. The day after I arrived, from New York via Copenhagen, a group of professors from the University of Toyama, in Japan, came to look around. They had arranged a tour with Hermansen, and he invited me to tag along. We headed off to meet the group in his electric Citro\u00ebn, which is painted blue with white puffy clouds on the doors. It was a drizzly day, and when we got to the dock the water was choppy. Hermansen commiserated with the Japanese, who had just disembarked from the swaying ferry; then we all boarded a bus.
Our first stop was a hillside with a panoramic view of the island. Several wind turbines exactly like the one I had climbed with Tranberg were whooshing nearby. In the wet and the gray, they were the only things stirring. Off in the distance, the silent fields gave way to the Kattegat, where another group of turbines could be seen, arranged in a soldierly line in the water.
All told, Sams\u00f8 has eleven large land-based turbines. (It has about a dozen additional micro-turbines.) This is a lot of turbines for a relatively small number of people, and the ratio is critical to Sams\u00f8\u2019s success, as is the fact that the wind off the Kattegat blows pretty much continuously; flags on Sams\u00f8, I noticed, do not wave\u2014they stick straight out, as in children\u2019s drawings. Hermansen told us that the land-based turbines are a hundred and fifty feet tall, with rotors that are eighty feet long. Together, they produce some twenty-six million kilowatt-hours a year, which is just about enough to meet all the island\u2019s demands for electricity. (This is true in an arithmetic sense; as a practical matter, Sams\u00f8\u2019s production of electricity and its needs fluctuate, so that sometimes it is feeding power into the grid and sometimes it is drawing power from it.) The offshore turbines, meanwhile, are even taller\u2014a hundred and ninety-five feet high, with rotors that extend a hundred and twenty feet. A single offshore turbine generates roughly eight million kilowatt-hours of electricity a year, which, at Danish rates of energy use, is enough to satisfy the needs of some two thousand homes. The offshore turbines\u2014there are ten of them\u2014were erected to compensate for Sams\u00f8\u2019s continuing use of fossil fuels in its cars, trucks, and ferries. Their combined output, of around eighty million kilowatt-hours a year, provides the energy equivalent of all the gasoline and diesel oil consumed on the island, and then some; in aggregate, Sams\u00f8 generates about ten per cent more power than it consumes.
\u201cWhen we started, in 1997, nobody expected this to happen,\u201d Hermansen told the group. \u201cWhen we talked to local people, they said, Yes, come on, maybe in your dreams.\u201d Each land-based turbine cost the equivalent of eight hundred and fifty thousand dollars. Each offshore turbine cost around three million dollars. Some of Sams\u00f8\u2019s turbines were erected by a single investor, like Tranberg; others were purchased collectively. At least four hundred and fifty island residents own shares in the onshore turbines, and a roughly equal number own shares in those offshore. Shareholders, who also include many non-residents, receive annual dividend checks based on the prevailing price of electricity and how much their turbine has generated.
\u201cIf I\u2019m reduced to being a customer, then if I like something I buy it, and if I don\u2019t like it I don\u2019t buy it,\u201d Hermansen said. \u201cBut I don\u2019t care about the production. We care about the production, because we own the wind turbines. Every time they turn around, it means money in the bank. And, being part of it, we also feel responsible.\u201d Thanks to a policy put in place by Denmark\u2019s government in the late nineteen-nineties, utilities are required to offer ten-year fixed-rate contracts for wind power that they can sell to customers elsewhere. Under the terms of these contracts, a turbine should\u2014barring mishap\u2014repay a shareholder\u2019s initial investment in about eight years.
From the hillside, we headed to the town of Ballen. There we stopped at a red shed-shaped building made out of corrugated metal. Inside, enormous bales of straw were stacked against the walls. Hermansen explained that the building was a district heating plant that had been designed to run on biomass. The bales, each representing the equivalent of fifty gallons of oil, would be fed into a furnace, where water would be heated to a hundred and fifty-eight degrees. This hot water would then be piped underground to two hundred and sixty houses in Ballen and in the neighboring town of Brundby. In this way, the energy of the straw burned at the plant would be transferred to the homes, where it could be used to provide heat and hot water.
Sams\u00f8 has two other district heating plants that burn straw\u2014one in Tranebjerg, the other in Onsbjerg\u2014and also a district plant, in Nordby, that burns wood chips. When we visited the Nordby plant, later that afternoon, it was filled with what looked like mulch. (The place smelled like a potting shed.) Out back was a field covered in rows of solar panels, which provide additional hot water when the sun is shining. Between the rows, sheep with long black faces were munching on the grass. The Japanese researchers pulled out their cameras as the sheep snuffled toward them, expectantly.
Of course, burning straw or wood, like burning fossil fuels, produces CO2. The key distinction is that while fossil fuels release carbon that otherwise would have remained sequestered, biomass releases carbon that would have entered the atmosphere anyway, through decomposition. As long as biomass regrows, the CO2 released in its combustion should be reabsorbed, meaning that the cycle is\u2014or at least can be\u2014carbon neutral. The wood chips used in the Nordby plant come from fallen trees that previously would have been left to rot. The straw for the Ballen-Brundby plant comes mainly from wheat stalks that would previously have been burned in the fields. Together, the biomass heating plants prevent the release of some twenty-seven hundred tons of carbon dioxide a year.
In addition to biomass, Sams\u00f8 is experimenting on a modest scale with biofuels: a handful of farmers have converted their cars and tractors to run on canola oil. We stopped to visit one such farmer, who grows his own seeds, presses his own oil, and feeds the leftover mash to his cows. The farmer couldn\u2019t be located, so Hermansen started up the press himself. He stuck a finger under the spout, then popped it into his mouth. \u201cThe oil is very good,\u201d he announced. \u201cYou can use it in your car, and you can use it on your salad.\u201d
After the tour, I went back with Hermansen to his office, in a building known as the Energiakademi. The academy, which looks like a Bauhaus interpretation of a barn, is covered with photovoltaic cells and insulated with shredded newspapers. It is supposed to serve as a sort of interpretive center, though when I visited, the place was so new that the rooms were mostly empty. Some high-school students were kneeling on the floor, trying to put together a miniature turbine.
I asked Hermansen whether there were any projects that hadn\u2019t worked out. He listed several, including a plan to use natural gas produced from cow manure and an experiment with electric cars that failed when one of the demonstration vehicles spent most of the year in the shop. The biggest disappointment, though, had to do with consumption.
\u201cWe made several programs for energy savings,\u201d he told me. \u201cBut people are acting\u2014what do you call it?\u2014irresponsibly. They behave like monkeys.\u201d For example, families that insulated their homes better also tended to heat more rooms, \u201cso we ended up with zero.\u201d Essentially, he said, energy use on the island has remained constant for the past decade.
I asked why he thought the renewable-energy-island effort had got as far as it did. He said he wasn\u2019t sure, because different people had had different motives for participating. \u201cFrom the very egoistic to the more over-all perspective, I think we had all kinds of reasons.\u201d
Finally, I asked what he thought other communities might take from Sams\u00f8\u2019s experience.
\u201cWe always hear that we should think globally and act locally,\u201d he said. \u201cI understand what that means\u2014I think we as a nation should be part of the global consciousness. But each individual cannot be part of that. So \u2018Think locally, act locally\u2019 is the key message for us.\u201d
\u201cThere\u2019s this wish for showcases,\u201d he added. \u201cWhen we are selected to be the showcase for Denmark, I feel ashamed that Denmark doesn\u2019t produce anything bigger than that. But I feel proud because we are the showcase. So I did my job, and my colleagues did their job, and so did the people of Sams\u00f8.\u201d
round the same time that Sams\u00f8 was designated Denmark\u2019s renewable-energy island, a group of Swiss scientists who were working on similar issues performed a thought experiment. The scientists, all of whom were affiliated with the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, asked themselves what level of energy use would be sustainable, not just for an island or a small European nation but for the entire world. The answer they came up with\u2014two thousand watts per person\u2014furnished the name for a new project: the 2,000-Watt Society.
\u201cWhat it\u2019s important, I think, to know is that the 2,000-Watt Society is not a program of hard life,\u201d the director of the project, Roland Stulz, told me when I went to speak to him at his office, in the Zurich suburb of D\u00fcbendorf. \u201cIt is not what we call G\u00fcrtel enger schnallen\u201d\u2014belt tightening\u2014\u201cit\u2019s not starving, it\u2019s not having less comfort or fun. It\u2019s a creative approach to the future.\u201d
Stulz, who is sixty-three, is a softspoken man with dark wavy hair and a salt-and-pepper mustache. He was trained as an architect and later became interested in energy-efficient building. In 2001, when he took over the 2,000-Watt Society, his mandate was to push it into the realm of the practical. (His work is funded in part by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, which has campuses in Zurich and Lausanne, and in part by private donations.) He began holding meetings that brought researchers together with government officials from cities like Zurich and Basel.
\u201cI divided them into groups,\u201d Stulz recalled. \u201cAnd I told them, At four o\u2019clock each group must come and tell the whole session what project they will do in the future, and who will lead the projects. And they said, Oh, it\u2019s not possible. But at four o\u2019clock everybody came with a project. And that\u2019s how we started.\u201d The cantons of Geneva and Basel-Stadt and the city of Zurich subsequently endorsed the aims of the 2,000-Watt Society, as did the Swiss Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy, and Communications. \u201cAt first glance, the objective of a two-thousand-watt society appears unrealistic,\u201d Moritz Leuenberger, the head of the federal department, has said. \u201cBut the necessary technology already exists.\u201d
One afternoon, Stulz took me to visit the headquarters of an aquatic-research center known as EAWAG, which was designed to meet the 2,000-Watt Society\u2019s energy-efficiency goals. (EAWAG is an acronym for a German name so complicated that even German speakers can\u2019t remember it.) We drove over in his Volvo, which runs on compressed natural gas produced in part from rotting vegetables. When I first caught sight of the place, I thought it was covered with banners; these turned out to be tinted-glass panels. Inside, hanging from a set of chains in a large atrium, was what I took to be a sculpture of a bug. This turned out to be a model of a water molecule, enlarged some ten billion times.
Among the many unusual features of the EAWAG Center is a lack of usual features. The building, which opened in 2006, has no furnace; it is so tightly insulated that, on most days, the warmth thrown off by the office equipment and the two hundred people who work inside is enough to keep it comfortable. Additional heat is provided by the sun\u2014in winter, the outside panels tilt to allow in the maximum amount of light\u2014and by air sucked in from underground. The building also has no conventional air-conditioners: in summer, the panels tilt to provide shade, and if the building gets hot during the day, at night the windows at the top of the atrium open, and the warm air rushes out. It supplies about a third of its own electricity with photovoltaic panels installed on the roof, and gets its hot water from solar collectors. Its bathrooms are equipped with specially designed \u201cno mix\u201d toilets that separate out urine, which contains potentially useful phosphorus and nitrogen. (\u201cExploiting common waste as a resource is a mark of sustainable civilization,\u201d a booklet on the building observes.)
\u201cIt\u2019s not a miracle, such a building,\u201d Stulz told me when we went to have a cup of coffee in the center\u2019s cheerfully modernist cafeteria. \u201cIt\u2019s just putting smart elements together in a smart way.\u201d Outside, it was rainy and forty-three degrees; inside the temperature was a pleasant seventy.
ne way to think about the 2,000-Watt Society is in terms of light bulbs. Let\u2019s say you turn on twenty lamps, each with a hundred-watt bulb. Together, the lamps will draw two thousand watts of power. Left on for a day, they will consume forty-eight kilowatt-hours of energy; left on for a year, they will consume seventeen thousand five hundred and twenty kilowatt-hours. A person living a two-thousand-watt life would consume in all his activities\u2014working, eating, travelling\u2014the same amount of energy as those twenty bulbs, or seventeen thousand five hundred and twenty kilowatt-hours annually.
Most of the people in the world today consume far less than this. The average Bangladeshi, for example, uses only about twenty-six hundred kilowatt-hours a year\u2014this figure includes all forms of energy, from electricity to transportation fuel\u2014which is the equivalent of using roughly three hundred watts continuously. The average Indian uses about eighty-seven hundred kilowatt-hours a year, making India a one-thousand-watt society, while the average Chinese uses about thirteen thousand kilowatt-hours a year, making China a fifteen-hundred-watt society.
Those of us who live in the industrialized world, by contrast, consume far more than two thousand watts. Switzerland, for instance, is a five-thousand-watt society. Most other Western European countries are six-thousand-watt societies; the United States and Canada run at twelve thousand watts. One of the founding principles of the 2,000-Watt Society is that this disparity is in itself unsustainable. \u201cIt\u2019s a basic matter of fairness\u201d is how Stulz put it to me. But increasing energy use in developing countries to match that of industrialized nations would be unacceptable on ecological grounds. Were per-capita demand in the developing world to reach current European levels, global energy consumption would more than double, and were it to rise to the American level, global energy consumption would more than triple. The 2,000-Watt Society gives industrialized countries a target for cutting energy use at the same time that it sets a limit for growth in developing nations.
The last time Switzerland was a two-thousand-watt society was in the early nineteen-sixties. By the end of that decade, energy use had reached three thousand watts, and by the mid-seventies it was up to four thousand watts. This rapid rise could be said to follow from technological advances\u2014the spread of automobiles, the advent of jet travel, the proliferation of appliances and electronic devices\u2014or it could be seen as just the reverse: a failure to apply technology where it is needed. A few years ago, a group of Swiss scientists published a white paper\u2014or, to use the Swiss term, a \u201cwhite book\u201d\u2014on the feasibility of a 2,000-Watt Society. Relying on widely agreed-upon figures, the scientists estimated that two-thirds of all the primary energy consumed in the world today is wasted, mostly in the form of heat that nobody wants or uses. (\u201cPrimary energy\u201d is the energy contained in, say, a lump of coal; \u201cuseful energy\u201d is the light emitted by a bulb once that coal has been burned to produce steam, the steam has been used to run a turbine, and the resulting electricity has been transmitted over the grid to heat the bulb\u2019s filament.) This same paper concluded that, with currently available technologies, buildings could be made eighty per cent more efficient, cars fifty per cent more efficient, and motors twenty-five per cent more efficient.
In Switzerland, I visited several other buildings that, like the EAWAG Center, had been specifically designed to maximize efficiency. One was an upscale apartment building in Basel. The apartments have eighteen-inch-thick walls filled with insulation, triple-paned windows coated with a special reflective film, and a heat-recovery system that captures eighty per cent of the energy normally lost through ventilation. Instead of a boiler, it has a geothermal heat pump, which essentially sucks energy out of the groundwater. In the summer, the same system is used for cooling. (In compliance with Swiss building codes, the building also contains a bomb shelter.)
\u201cThe construction industry is very traditional,\u201d Franco Fregnan, an engineer who showed me around the apartments, said. \u201cIf you bring an innovation to them, you usually have to wait another generation until it arrives into a building. And we are trying to change that, step by step.\u201d
\u201cIt usually makes sense to become more intelligent in any human activity,\u201d Stulz told me. \u201cAs the former Saudi Arabian oil minister Sheikh Yamani once said, the Stone Age didn\u2019t end because there were no more stones. It ended because people became more intelligent. \u201d
hat would it take to lead a two-thousand-watt life? When I posed this question to Stulz, he gave me another research paper, which offers case studies of six fictionalized households. The Jeannerets are an imaginary family of four who live in Glattbrugg, a town north of Zurich. They own an energy-efficient house, travel by electric bike or train, and occasionally rent a car\u2014they belong to a car-sharing service\u2014to do their grocery shopping. The Moeris, fictional farmers who live northeast of Bern, generate their own electricity with natural gas produced from cow manure; and Alain, Michel, Angela, and Marl\u00e8ne, fictional students living in Geneva, share all their appliances, use the tram, and like to go hiking in the French Alps during school breaks. \u201cThere is no formula for how to achieve a two-thousand-watt society,\u201d the paper declares. \u201cThree things are needed: societal decisions. . . technical innovation, and the resolve of every individual to act in an energy-conscious way.\u201d
Very broadly speaking, the average Swiss today uses energy as follows: fifteen hundred watts per day for living and office space (this includes heat and hot water), eleven hundred watts for food and consumer items (the energy that it takes to produce and transport goods is referred to as \u201cembodied\u201d or \u201cgray\u201d energy), six hundred watts for electricity, five hundred watts for automobile travel, two hundred and fifty watts for air travel, and a hundred and fifty watts for public transportation. Each person\u2019s share of Switzerland\u2019s public infrastructure, which includes facilities like water- and sewage-treatment plants, comes to nine hundred watts. Reducing these five thousand watts to two thousand would seem to require a significant reduction in every realm. Assuming that infrastructure-related consumption could be cut to five hundred watts, a person who continued to use fifteen hundred watts for living and office space would have nothing left for food, electricity, and transportation. Similarly, a person who continued to travel and use electricity at current rates would consume two thousand watts without having anywhere to live or work, or anything to eat.
While I was in Switzerland, I kept looking for people who actually led two-thousand-watt lives.
\u201cI\u2019m pretty close, except for this stupid air travel,\u201d Gerhard Schmitt, the vice-president for planning and logistics at the Zurich campus of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, told me. \u201cI go once to Shanghai and it\u2019s gone.\u201d (A round-trip flight between Zurich and Shanghai is the equivalent of using something like eight hundred watts continuously for a year.)
\u201cLet\u2019s skip that question,\u201d Stulz said when I put it to him. While he lives in an energy-efficient apartment, he, too, travels a great deal; when I visited, he had just returned from a conference in New Delhi, a round trip that used roughly the equivalent of six hundred watts for the year.
The one person I spoke to who did seem to be leading a two-thousand-watt life, or something very near to it, was an engineer named Robert Uetz. Uetz works in the same building as Stulz, and when we returned from visiting the EAWAG Center he was still in his office, even though it was after six. Stulz encouraged me to go talk to him.
\u201cWe don\u2019t experience it as a restriction,\u201d Uetz told me of his two-thousand-watt life style. \u201cOn the contrary. I don\u2019t feel that we\u2019re giving up anything.\u201d Uetz and his wife, a dentist, live with their two children in the city of Winterthur, near Zurich. About ten years ago, they bought a two-thousand-square-foot house in a newly built energy-efficient development. The house is heated with a geothermal heat pump\u2014\u201cIt\u2019s crazy to heat a house with fossil fuels,\u201d Uetz said\u2014and has a solar hot-water system. Uetz added photovoltaic panels to the roof to produce electricity; in the winter the panels produce somewhat less power than the house uses\u2014it\u2019s equipped with the most energy-efficient lights and appliances the family could find\u2014and in the summer they produce somewhat more, so that over the course of the year the house\u2019s electricity use nets out to zero.
\u201cThe most important decision was that we wouldn\u2019t have a car,\u201d Uetz told me. \u201cThat was a conscious decision. We looked for a house where we didn\u2019t need a car.\u201d Driving a lot\u2014even in what, by today\u2019s standards at least, counts as an energy-efficient vehicle\u2014also makes it difficult to live within two thousand watts. A person who drives a Toyota Prius ten thousand miles a year consumes roughly two hundred and twenty-five gallons of gasoline. This is equivalent to consuming around eight thousand kilowatt-hours, or to using nearly a thousand watts on a continuous basis. (For a family of four, the same gasoline consumption would come to almost two hundred and fifty watts per person.)
\u201cIt\u2019s a matter of what you\u2019re used to, but I find taking the train a lot more pleasant than driving,\u201d Uetz went on. \u201cOn the train I can work and relax. If I took a car, I\u2019d have to worry about parking and traffic, rain, snow, and a certain number of people who can\u2019t drive but are on the road anyway.\u201d When Uetz and his family go on vacation, they travel by rail. \u201cThe only thing I\u2019d say that is sort of a restriction is the flying,\u201d he said. \u201cBecause, obviously, with the train where you can go is limited. We can\u2019t go to China, or if we did it would take a week.\u201d
\u201cI don\u2019t make a religion out of it,\u201d he added. \u201cI wouldn\u2019t do it if I didn\u2019t feel good about it\u2014it\u2019s how I like to live.\u201d
y the 2,000-Watt Society\u2019s own reckoning, cutting consumption is just half\u2014or, perhaps more accurately, a quarter\u2014of what needs to be done. The project\u2019s ultimate goal is a world where people consume no more than two thousand watts apiece and where fifteen hundred of those watts come from carbon-free sources. In such a world, everyone would use energy sparingly, like Robert Uetz, and generate it renewably, like J\u00f8rgen Tranberg. In such a world, filled with windmills and net-zero houses, carbon emissions would fall sharply, and the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere would slowly level off. But how realistic is such a scenario?
Before I left Switzerland to fly back to New York (a trip equivalent to using roughly two hundred and fifty watts continuously for a year), I went to speak to the president of the research council of the Swiss National Science Foundation, Dieter Imboden. Imboden, who is sixty-four, is a compact man with an oval face and silvery hair. He received his training in theoretical solid-state physics, later became interested in environmental physics, and for several years chaired the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology\u2019s environmental-sciences department. In the late nineties, he served as the director of the 2,000-Watt Society. He said that as a scientist he could see no technical barriers to creating a two-thousand-watt world.
\u201cWe are putting our mental energy into the wrong basket,\u201d he told me. \u201cNothing has to be reinvented\u2014for an engineer it\u2019s not even a challenge.\u201d
\u201cThe problems of the twenty-first century are a different kind of problem,\u201d he went on. \u201cAnd I think our society will be measured according to the solution of this new kind of problem, which cannot be solved with the same recipe as the flight to the moon, or the Manhattan Project. It\u2019s a qualitative difference\u2014a paradigm change in the role of science for our society.\u201d
He continued, \u201cThe difficult thing is what I call \u2018constructed Switzerland.\u2019 You in America could call it \u2018constructed United States\u2019\u2014the buildings and how they are built, but also where they are built and, even more important, the roads, the railroads, the lines for energy, for wastewater, and so on. It\u2019s not economically feasible to replace everything in one instant.\u201d But since infrastructure should in any case be replaced at the rate of roughly two per cent a year, if the project is approached incrementally, it\u2019s a different task. Then, Imboden said, \u201cit suddenly is feasible.\u201d
As of yet, no one has undertaken a rigorous analysis of the economics of a transition to two thousand watts. Researchers have tended, rather, to focus on the price of stabilizing carbon-dioxide levels in the atmosphere at a given concentration\u2014either, say, five hundred and fifty parts per million, which is double pre-industrial levels, or four hundred and fifty parts, which, many climate scientists say, is the very highest level advisable. Perhaps the most often cited economic study is the Stern Review, commissioned by the British government and named for its lead author, Sir Nicholas Stern, formerly the chief economist for the World Bank. The Stern Review, published in October, 2006, concluded that greenhouse-gas levels could be stabilized below double pre-industrial concentrations at a cost to global G.D.P. of around one per cent a year. (The Stern Review considered not just CO2 but other greenhouse gases, like methane and nitrous oxide, as well.) An analysis released last year by the Swedish utility Vattenfall, with research assistance from the American consulting firm McKinsey & Company, reached a similar conclusion: it determined that many measures to reduce carbon emissions, like improving building insulation, would save money, while others, like installing wind turbines, would carry a price. The Vattenfall report estimates that \u201cif all low-cost opportunities are addressed,\u201d CO2 levels could be stabilized at four hundred and fifty parts per million with an annual expenditure of six-tenths of one per cent of global G.D.P.
Though one per cent of the global economy is clearly a lot of money, in the grand scheme of things it\u2019s also clearly manageable. It is about a ninth of what\u2019s currently spent on health care, a seventh of what\u2019s spent on oil, and half of what\u2019s spent on defense. (More than forty per cent of all the world\u2019s military expenditures are made by the United States.) Perhaps most pertinent, it\u2019s a far smaller figure than the cost of inaction. The Stern Review projects that if current emissions trends are allowed to continue, the eventual damage from climate change will \u201cbe equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year, now and forever,\u201d and that \u201cif a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account\u201d that figure could \u201crise to 20% of GDP or more.\u201d
Twenty years ago, NASA\u2019s chief climate scientist, James Hansen, testified on Capitol Hill about the dangers of global warming. Just a few days ago, Hansen returned to the Hill to testify again. \u201cNow, as then, frank assessment of scientific data yields conclusions that are shocking to the body politic,\u201d he said. \u201cNow, as then, I can assert that these conclusions have a certainty exceeding ninety-nine per cent. The difference is that now we have used up all slack in the schedule.\u201d Hansen went on to warn that there would be no practical way to prevent \u201cdisastrous\u201d climate change unless the next President and Congress act quickly to curb emissions. Few parts of the U.S. may be as windy as Sams\u00f8, or as well organized as Switzerland, but just about everywhere there are possibilities for generating energy more inventively and using it more intelligently. Realizing these possibilities will require a great deal of effort. We may well decide not to make this effort. Such a choice to put off change, however, will merely drive us toward it. \u2666

Read more: http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/07/07/080707fa_fact_kolbert?currentPage=all#ixzz0tK3ZtsDl

=============== DURING-presentation notes

Can't stand the colors of Etherpad? Turn them off with Pad Options. 
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Color card definitions:
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Link to backchan.nl for questions:
http://singularity.backchan.nl/meetings/view/157 First speaker
http://singularity.backchan.nl/meetings/view/158 Second speaker
http://singularity.backchan.nl/meetings/view/159 Third speaker

GSP10 Book List:
http://bit.ly/GSP10BookList

=============== POST-presentation notes

Instant Evaluation:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/a/singularityu.org/viewform?formkey=dGVzY3JzR3VFeTJjSElVcjM3REFpY0E6MQ

Reminder: PASSWORD CHANGE on MONDAY 12 JULY.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul20-EES
"7/20/2010 
Tuesday 
9 am - 12 pm 
EES Session: Edge Issue, Conservation and Efficiency
B583C

9:20 am - 9:40 am: Daniel Kammen (http://kammen.berkeley.edu/ )
Designing a Climate Friendly Future
Slides: http://bit.ly/aNYb7L
9:00 am - 9:20 am: Sunil Paul (http://www.linkedin.com/in/sunilpaul )
Slides: http://bit.ly/drkuJw
9:40 am - 10:00 am: Rohit Aggarwala (http://www.worldleaders.columbia.edu/participants/rohit-t-aggarwala )
Slides: http://bit.ly/cWokjE
10:00 am - 10:15 am: Explanation of the wedges/simulation rules and split into 4 groups (corresponding groups A, B, C, D in rooms A, B, C, D)
10:15 am - 10:30 am: Coffee Break
10:30 am - 11:15 am: Groups work in separate rooms
11:15 am - 11:45 am: Groups reconvene in Central Room: Each Group presents
11:45 am - 12:00 m: Final Discussion and Awards Ceremony

Think about the most important variable to scaling key wedges in \u201cwedge analysis\u201d \u2013 how they think about what\u2019s necessary to actually take these to scale. Following the explanations of the rules, students will then break into four groups in Building 583C: the already pre-assigned rooms A, B, C, and D. Sunil, Dan Rohit will rotate among the different rooms and serve as general facilitators. The best teams will win special awards in a closing ceremony.

Three groups (A, B and C) will work for an hour on how exponential technology can ensure that wedges (from GigatonThrowdown Report or otherwise) reach the scale necessary to lighten the global emissions load. These three groups will break out to each address one of the following key wedges:
A. Solar PV (Room A)
B. Building Efficiency (Room B)
C. Biofuels (Room D)
These three groups should spend a small part of their hour checking the core assumptions from GigatonThrowdown (and other sources as appropriate, including other lectures given this summer) of how the particular wedge they\u2019re working on will get to scale. They should spend the majority of their time developing a story of how exponential hard, soft, social, and economic approaches can ensure and/or accelerate the growth of their chosen wedge. (See http://www.gigatonthrowdown.org ) Each group should designate a reporter who will summarize the group\u2019s story back to the plenary group after an hour, and the three workshop leaders will select a winning wedge that will get a special prize.

The other group (D) will go to Room D and engage in an hour-long carbon trading simulation. The winning team in this simulation will also receive a special prize. (See the simple rules of the game below).
_______________________________________________________________________________________________ 
Info for Groups A, B, C: Wedge Analysis and GigatonThrowdon Summary (read: http://www.gigatonthrowdown.org/files/Gigaton_Overview.pdf)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________

Info for Group D: The Art of a Deal: A Kyoto Protocol Simulation (read: http://www.sciencecases.org/kyoto_protocol/kyoto_protocol_notes.asp )

In this simulation, you will represent one of several countries attempting to barter an international agreement to lower global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. For simplicity, there will only be three countries that need to lower their CO2emissions (Countries A, B, and C). To add a bit of realism, there will be one developing nation (Country D) that is exempt from any reduction agreement.
The goal of each country is to maximize its \u201cscore\u201d as computed below. At the end of the simulation, each member of the highest-scoring country will have their names thrown into a hat for a $50 campus bookstore gift certificate.

Rules
Countries A, B, and C will begin the simulation with 100 CO2 units and $100 per country. Country D has 50CO2 units for sale and $20 to start.
An agreement must be reached that lowers global CO2 emissions of Countries A, B, and C by 100 CO2 units. The 100 could include CO2 purchased from Country D. If an agreement is not reached, no names go in the drawing for the gift certificate.
Countries A, B, and C must approve any agreement unanimously. Country D has no vote.
Each country will designate two representatives that may speak to any other country or address the countries as a whole.
Country D has 50 CO2 units available for sale. Any country can purchase these units with their dollars. These 50 units can be sold in smaller blocks to separate countries. Any money used to purchase CO2 units is given directly to Country D.Any CO2 unit sales or reductions must be done in whole units.
Scoring: Determining the Winner

Countries A, B, and C
At the beginning of the simulation, Countries A, B, and C all have 200 points ($100 + 100 CO2 units). However, at the end of the simulation if the CO2 units of A, B, or C are below 100, their economies suffer. If the CO2 emissions are below 100, the economy must go down by one-half the amount below 100 units. For example, if Country A ends up with 80 CO2 units and $100, their economy will end up at $90. Their total score will then be 170.
Country D
The final score will be three times the economic size in dollars. Your starting economy size is $20, for a starting score of 60. No credit will be given for unsold CO2 units.

Notes from video
http://www.gigatonthrowdown.org/video/
7:20 2 million more direct jobs from clean energy
7:44 To stabilize climate, we've got to reduce carbon by 5-7 gigatons per year
9:10 All fossil fuel use is a threat to our national security
9:50 Biggest impact is through fuels - cellulosic ethanol 
11:51 Over the next 10 years, $13 T will be invested in fossil fuels worldwide
12:31 Three things needed
Capital - waiting
Technology - capable of scaling
Policy - remaining open question
13:10 Rules of the game are designed for the fossil fuel industry
13:50 Key is to have stable policy
14:10 Being subject to politics is \"death\"
14:50 [slide showing 93% / 73% / 77% annual drops in wind turbine demand as production tax credits expired in 2000 / 2002 / 2004] This has led to bankruptcy of every wind company in the US.

9:15 Jose: Final day of Phase I
Three speakers this morning.
Dan Kammen from Berkeley.

Designing a Climate Friendly Future
Daniel M. Kammen
Slides: http://bit.ly/aNYb7L

Dan: Thank you. 
We have a heavy agenda.
Workshop part of this will be designing a clean, low carbon solution.
The world's largest problem.
We have an hour.
Among the policies, technolgies, investment areas
design a coherent plan.
To put limited resources and huge amount of needs in perspective.

Steve Schneider passed away.
Important about him - very rare. Academics don't normally take their research results and jump into the public battle.
Spoke the truth.
The number of public officials who speak the truth - is rare.

Two aspects:
The data - Amory Lovins used to say, \"In God we trust, all others bring data\"
Steve highlighted what the data say.
Just to highlight - dramatic retreat of ice in Himalayas.
Incredible loss of ice in Rockies, Andes. 
In 2009, spring arrives a week earlier and fall ends a week later.
Dramatic change for all kinds of animal species.

People look at the model results.
Find simple, clear ways to say what is going on.
99.9% of climate scientists agree on the data.
Yet 50% of people ... leave the train. Don't believe the human causes.
\"Climate-gate\"
Real failure to communicate the data.
June is the warmest in human history.
Who did NOT see that result? [most]
What I will show you is the amount of sea ice at the summer minimum.
There will be noise in the record.
Snapshot.
1 million square km.
Two things going on in this record.
Model free assessment of where we are today.
Even if one data point is dramatically important.
Linear trend - 50% loss in sea ice.
Both this linear trend with noise, hint 
the thing that climate scientists suspect
we know there are surprises lurking for us as the world warms.
Hard to tell the story of the absolute calamities coming

Goal. Devise a climate plan.
History of US GHG emissions.
US is 1/4. China 1/4.
GHG in billions of tons on this graph.
Missed Kyoto goal - no comment.

For all bad press of IPCC for Climategate.
Done relative to 1990 baseline - 20% reduction from today. Then 80% from there.
De-carbonize the entire economy in 40 years.
We know how to get here.
We do not know how to do this [drop to 2050]
Full path is not yet discovered.

Copenhagen - 25-40% below 1990.
CA goal, get back to 1990 level.
Bills in US, mid-term goals.

Client science is very clear.
Snow in N hemisphere.
Series of IPCC reports - first: might take a decade to get clear data, second balance of data, third most data, fourth significant risk - warming will impact global poor.
So that is supposed to depress you all.

We do have successes. Look at kWh/person.
Dramatic decoupling that contributed to CA.
Today CA is about 40% better than national avg.
NY, RI, Wisconsin have done above national avg.
Denmark is 40% better than CA.
Efficient use of waste materials.
kWh / person - while, per capita looks great, added a lot of capitas.

San Fran - all incandescent lighting.
Sunil will talk about the economics.
Hard to replace a brown electron with a green electron if there is not better quality service along with it.

Going green doesn't just get you brownie points in heaven, it saves you money or gives you better service.

Lurking problems in the greenhouse. Any Canadians? From Alberta? They have bitumen.
Used to be called tar sands. Now called oil sands.
These are the piles of waste sulfur.
Venezuela.
More oil in Alberta than in Saudi Arabia.
Takes about 30% of energy, natural gas bubbled through soil. venting H to atmosphere.
to get oil
So we pass through two cleaner fuels to get oil.

Gigaton Throwdown
Building another nuclear sector.
Thinking about how to grow these.
Solar - 1990 assessments. Large fields, distributed homes, off-grid. Made estimates.
200 absolute solar enthusiasts - this what we forecast. This is what happened [much higher growth]
We thought least cost $/W.
Kenya - as % of pop. - only 10-12 W. but small distributed systems at high cost grew much more quickly than central ones.
Now seeing German, Portugal, Ontario - large scale.
Experts can be dead wrong.
May be able to come up with interesting new ways - because we had our heads up ... something.

- Public R&D.
Manhattan
Apollo
Reagan Defence 
Jose: Star Wars

War on Terror
6-7x increase in short term.

My group will talk about being in charge of that budget.
Think in broad terms about how to scale spending.
Rob Socolo/Princeton.
Play the wedge game.

Sectoral goal.
Need 7 wedges to get to ...

9:45 Sunil Paul [applause]
Instigator/ organizer of Gigaton Throwdown.
My primary role is as an industrialist
Spring Ventures
invest only in clean tech.
Reason I want to talk to you today -
got into this world of investing - the most powerful lever
to get change in climate and energy security.
As I continued to invest - a friend said,
\"You clean tech guys could make a bunch of money and not make a bit of difference.\"
Solar could increase by a factor of 10 or 20, but that would not matter.
Interest in this category - that realization.
What DOES it take to make a big difference in climate and security.
Jose said this would be a heavy session - a gigton. 1 billion tons.
What is that?
An enormously heavy, big.
Give some idea, more palpable realization of what is a billion tons.
Seems hard to believe that a gas, 
something you breathe out every day, 
could be so heavy.
A car emits 3-4x its own weight - a Prius for example - emits 3x its own weight in CO2.
If you had to make 1 gigatons - it would take 285 m Priuses.
Roughly entire US fleet. In that magnitude.
Problem is just enormous.
Reason we chose wedge is you need something you can get your head around.

What are the possible solutions?
: Efficiency, less waste.
: Solar

10:05
Major Bloomberg asked to start office for New York city.
Did not start out with the goal of being green.
Long term growth strategy for NY.

designing green results in energy efficiency as a byproduct

NYC has carbon footprint ~Portugal

\"best thing you can do to decrease your cabon footprint is to move to NYC\"

LA needs the least amount of energy to heat/cool

45% of NYC's space is in 2% of its buildings

VC challenge: Want a return of $800 million from $200 million. Can't change laws, can influence but can't dole out money and expect laws and regulations ot change. YOu have tremendous access to talent, brains, etc. Now where do you focus?

Organizing the fund, what are we focused on, what are we not focused on and why?

First: 
You have a budget from the government.
What can you do?

Second:
You are a venture capitalist. Responsible for R&D.
Live by the constraints.
Can't change the law.
How do you get to maximum impact.

Third:
You are a public official.
Mayor Bloomberg.
You've got the political equation to deal with.

Challenge - how do you end up having the biggest impact.

10:46 Break
10:58 

12:55 Jose: 
Anniversary of moon landing
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_11

4 cakes.
David Roberts' birthday.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul7-BB-links
"LINKS FOR SESSION:
( http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul7-BB )

Wednesday 
7/7/2010 
9am - 12pm 
BB CL3 Brainstorm Research Foundation (Linda Avey) 
Slides:
BB CL4 Life as a growth industry (Lori Giver) 
Slides:
NT CL4 DNA Origami (Paul Rothemund) 
Slides:

Suggested use:

Step 0: Check if someone else has already pasted your link. 
If so, vote for it with a plus sign (+):
...
[12] AB
[13] CD ++
http://someone-else-beat-me-to-it.com
[14]
[15]
...

Step 1: Grab a number

...
[12] AB
[13] CD
http://someone-else-beat-me-to-it.com
[14] \x3cyour initials go here>
[15]
...

Step 2: Paste your link and (optional) excerpt and type an annotation:

...
[12] AB
[13] CD
http://someone-else-beat-me-to-it.com
[14] JG
http://www.slideshare.net/eekim/collaborating-via-artifacts
Slideshare presentation: \"Collaborating Via Artifacts: 
Understanding The Real Difference
Between Online and Face-to-Face Collaboration\"
Great example of slidecasting and explation of how on-line collaboration works so effectively.
[15]
...

Step 3: Return to the original Etherpad ( http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul7-BB ) and drop in your reference:

blah blah blah [14] blah blah

REFERENCES:
[0] \x3cadd your initials>
\x3cpaste your link here>
\x3cexcerpt and annotate>

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"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun28-AIR-CL1-Overview-AI-Robotics-Jacobstein
"Monday, June 28
AIR CL1 Overview of Artificial Intelligence & Robotics (Neil Jacobstein)

Neil Jacobstein
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/present/view?id=0AWIj9HPeinaFZGY2cDNjOXpfMzAwZHAzazY5OXM&hl=en
Audio: 

Where are we now? Where are we going? How will we get there? How fast? Are all elements exponential? Lessons learned: early AI predictions and industry, Managing technical and business opportunities, Anticipating and managing risks..

9:04
Salim: Holland won at FIFA.
How many went to Luke's thing? [about half]
Will be quite a few of those over the summer, if you missed it.
Starting now with core lectures. Lectures in the morning. Workshops in the afternoon. Evening events.
Acknowledge unconference: fantastic.
How many for movie night? [most] Discussion after.
TP Survey was due - about half filled it out. Just initial sense. Please fill out.

One of missing students has arrived.
[hug]
SJP: Traveled from Australia
Sarah Jane Pell
Artist, commercial diver
Space analog projects
ISU alum
Worked on luna gaia 2006
TED Fellow
Working on art & science collaboration and intersection
Will be jet lagged. Look forward to meeting you all.

Dan will kick off with AI and Robotics. Welcome Dan Barry.

DB: Neil and I are co-chairs on this track.
One of really big issues: what does it mean to have robot overlords, I mean robot servants.
Introduce Neil.
Formal background
AI R&D 25 yrs for govt and corporates

Standford media program
AAAI for over a decade
Really proud to say Neil is a good friend.
Met here. At curriculum planning committee.
Weren't planning to work together, but he kept making insightful comments.
I'm thinking, \"how am I going to get to work with this guy\"
Low and behold he is chair for AI.
He was more interested in Network guys initially. 
We've tried to bring AI & Robotics together.
Initial impression more than confirmed.
For all intelligence there, outstanding thing is his heart.
What really matters in this world.

Neil: Thanks Dan.
AI Overview
Nature has no departments, so we will be interdisciplinary.
Alan Turing 1950 
Imitation game - now called \"Turing test\"
\"We may hope that machines will eventually compete with men in all purely 

In 1950 Alan Turing published a paper about testing whether humnas can discriminate a sophisticated AI algorithm in which he introduced what was later to be known the Turing test: can machines mimick human intelligence in a way that is indistinguishable to a human)

Newell and Simon GPS - general problem solver
Herb Simon - 1957 predicted computer would beat human in chess in 10 years. 1997 it happened. That 30 year difference was significant.

Important to distinguish Narrow AI (specific problems) and Strong AI (the kind seen in the movie last night that involves the broad deep and subtle intelligence that we link to human intelligence)

[slide of tall contraption]
Shakey the robot - 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shakey_the_robot

Three development vectors:
1/ Analytical paths to AGI
2/ Reverse Engineering brain
3/ Application Paths to AGI
- two types
- AI - artificial intelligence
- IA - intelligence augmentation, douglas Englebart
\"Mother of all Demos\" overlapping windows, mouse, embedded video, outlining, hypertext
Not just showing off amazing things, Doug was concerned with augmenting human ability to deal with complex problems. Deeply concerned with amping up people's ability to face these problems. Brains are wired for local phenomena. 
But we now have torrents of data and knowledge. Ancient brain architecture, formed LONG ago.

What's the problem? Why should we amplify our intelligence?
*Ancient brain architecture
*Evolutionary hardwired biases 
*Limited Attention capacity
*Technology amplifies our power +/-
*Change exponentially accelerating
Obsolete government Institutions.Needs a complete overhaul to be able to solve our challenges.
Navigation requirements increasing rapidly
A lion roar - misinterpreted - resulted in death.We have selection for reaction and if we chose the wrong one we could die from that choice. Limited attention capability, channel capacity.

We have exponential change, governments need overhaul to deal with the speed of the modern world.
Much higher degree of navigation than we have ever had before.
Consequences of not getting this right are severe.

News isn't just bad because of our fear based biases for bad news.
We have some very severe grand challenge problems needing urgent attention.
What can AI bring to the table?
Represent the problem - in a way that machines can understand and apply.
Do inference, if this, then that, NOT that.
all we want to do is represent problems, control them in some way, and then draw inferences from that.

Expert systems - limited success. Why? Could outperform builders. Unfortunately, quite brittle. If knowledge was not in the system, the answers would fall off clifff. No graceful degradation. Difficult to maintain. Expensive to build. Very difficult to keep up with torrent of data from every day life. Acquisition, inference engine, but still -- a step in the right direction.
Range of systems like this to be shown next week.

Exponential curve of computer power has increased tremendously. Vastly more powerful than early AI computers.
1997: Computer beat Grand Champion Kasparov, fulfilling Simon's prediction.

Some observations:
The early predictions of AI were truly naive. Predictions 30+ years too early and had funding consequences. Customer expectation problems. Opposite of Tom Peters' customer expectation mangement advice: underpromise and overdeliver. People will not believe in it anymore.

In spite of this, exponential acceleration needs to be factored in. Now researchers may be unduly sceptical.
I am optimistic that we will achieve AGI, even superhuman intelligence. Be careful about making predictions as you'll be betting the project - find how you can add value at the beginning in the curve and then \"skate to where the puck will be\" - ride the acceration curve 

Also interesting to reflect that tasks hard for humans turned out to be easy for early AIs. Irony, humor, empathy are difficult for computers.

Real world problems are domain and task specific. Solutions may require vast amounts of knowledge. We can utilize the power of massive data.

URLs - Uniform Resource Locators - point machines to documents.
Linked data enables people to find individual items in a document using URI
URI - Uniform Resource Identifiers - which a machine can understand and process

Untagged massive data now allows us to harness the \"unreasonable effectiveness\" of data.
IEEE Intelligent systems March/April 2009. Substitute billions of data points and non-parametric models to get machine translation.
Getting amazing results from very, very powerful harnessing of data.

[slide Nwanna's primary attribute dimension]
http://blog.chrisfournier.ca/wp-content/uploads/softwareagent_figure1.png

CALO - Cognitive Asistant that Learns and Organizes
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CALO

There was the possibility for a system to do massive joins and create a \"lightning strike\" of data to the user

Embedding AI into robots: Sense, Plan, Act

Autonomous robots in cars for DARPA Challenge

Wifi connections of robots to play robosoccer

iRobot has developed robots for military - out of despiration, they produced a vacuum robot (Rumba)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irobot

Open Source robotics - Willow Garage
ROS stands for both Robot Operating System and Robot Open Source 
PR2 personal robot platform
Get AI embedded in physical devices in real world.
Also embed AI in built environment in intelligent rooms at: MIT, Standford, CMU, elsewhere.
Deliver some kind of augmentation to users around building and design.
NASA Hyperwall http://www.nas.nasa.gov/Groups/VisTech/hyperwall/
Display device - but not just a pretty display. Each panel has significant processing power behind it. Can be harnessed together to show patterns.

Second Life
Teleplace(?)
Build AIs into educational environments. Like this sphinx.
AGI:Artificial General Intelligence
To get to AGI, we have to do something a little different.
Project: OpenCog, Ben Goetzel.
Using Novamente architecture - go to site and contribute
How do we develop the components. Ben will be here next week, sharing his ideas.
Other threads available: image brain to reverse engineer it.
Understand principles
Electorencephalograph.
fMRI
- locate specific areas involved in specific kinds of processing
Understand construction of brain - diffusion tensor view of white matter
Diffusion tension gradients tell which way the white matter fibers are going.

Model of Auditory Pathway 
http://www.lloydwatts.com/neuroscience.shtml

We also have models that were extracted from neuroscience research. Developed a chip that is able to discern speech signal from noise (Young 2003)
There has been a shift from brute force cmputing power to empowering standard PCs to do a very challenging task such as playing chess.

No doubt, we will reach AGI. Not just question of when. How we harness.
What happens after we achieve human level AGI. What values will we embed?

Next generation AI: image of computer based emulation of brain through reverse engineering.
[red line through computer brain]
We won't stop at brain's limitations. It is clear that we are going to break out of that prison.
Useful project would be to integrate all of human knowledge. People can master a couple of areas in a deep way, but no one is able to comprehend all of knowledge now.
This is a slide - every node is a different area of science. (http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0004803 ) This map is moving at exponential speed. Imagine the kind of velocity and accelleration of human knowledge.
AGI could be genuinely synthetic in integrating this knowledge

We will no doubt integrate AGI's with our own intelligence.
You might ask,
How?
What would it mean for you? your identity? your responsibilities?
Not only embed in environment, built environment, ourselves, but will control molecules and build the environment that is worthy of who we are.

Q: How much of AI technology ... you showed map. How much needs to built manually?

No hope of building that kind of system manually. Speed of knowledge increase will outstrip manual efforts.

Q: Is first step to build system to understand the meaning of stuff? Still years away?

We have Wikipedia now. Not doing inference. Systems that can. That is not a deep synthetic understanding.
Where do we begin? Get all data linked.
Huge corpus of knowledge.
Need systems which understand semantics.
Long way from systems which understand map.

Q: What is SIRI?

Massive joins of cloud services for specific tasks. Harnessing a number of different services. Does not comprehend huge amounts of knowledge to do that.

Q: Dmitry: You showed that we overpredicted. Are we getting better?
Always a lot of uncertainty. Now may underestimate what AI is achieving.

Try to get multiple data points. Look for counterfactuals. Always build in incremental advantages in your project so that you can deliver value at different stages of the project.

Q: We'll be better at prediction in 10 years!
Good prediction.

Q: David: Do we understand the 2-3 big breakthroughs that need to occur? Like DNA was a big breakthrough. From that framework ...

Key areas that will be pivotal: 

Extract generalizations - find what is really common. Some can be done statistically. What are salient features? Will be very big deal.
More raw computing horsepower. You've seen Ray's predictions - we'll see based on raw power.
Other area: whole system for doing active semantics. Underlying meaning of words. So systems could read and learn directly. Would be huge.

Q: Do you mean by generalizations: This is a \"chair\" this is a rabbit\"?

Some systems can classify.
They don't tend to identify and understand general principles.
Bacon could recapitulate some Physics results.
But currently, this is a research frontier.

Q: Bryce/LA: 
1/ To what extent is intelligence static versus functionally defined?
a property?
or a behavior?
If we see different behaviors, is it still intelligent.

2/ Tarsky's theories in AI?

On first question: both.
If a machine can play reasonable game of checkers, when Samuel achieved that in 1950s, the question became \"chess\" - then \"go\"- a line-drawing game. We keep redefining what intelligence means

Q: Maybe real reflection of what intelligence is. Perhaps intelligence can't be defined outside a context.

People keep changing the criteria.
We change because we are augmented.
What you can do with PDA or supercomputer is very different from what you can do alone.
Links to our evolutionary capabilities.

As far as Tarsky's theory - ecology of competition. One of many competiting.

Q: /Argentina: distinguish machine learning vs semantic based. To what extent do ...
I like AI because I thought it could be a mirror.
More I work on it, we will be able to be an AI, but it won't tell us much about us.

Depends on the way we build it.
If by reverse engineering, using same operating principles, it might tell us a lot.
Not subjectively, but a lot about human brain.

Other techniques, might tell very little about how brain works.

Q: Do you think this distinction between statistical and semantic approaches are really different?

Converging. Both can use probablility theory.

I don't think there is a never-ending war between those camps.

Q: David: In RK book, by 2045. Later, more whole humanity.
Basis?
What about software?

Graphs refer to computational equivalence.
Some rough correlation, but not same thing as intelligence.

Based on number of neural connections and operations per second.

Q: Does hardware progress faster than software?

Software will keep pace. Computer chess - at first was hardware. With Deep Fritz, software has provided huge value.
Predator/prey relationship. Software requires more hardware.
I've often waited for hardware ...

Q: 1/ List of conservative predictions - no breakthroughs, just growth of hardware and knowledge - where do we get?

Would challenge the idea that exponential growth alone will not produce breakthroughs, quantitative differences will yield qualitative changes.
In 10-20/25 years to AGI. Reason for error band, depends on how you define intelligence.
If you have specific idea, people might just work in that idea and achieve it early.
If you want an AGI solution, might take longer.

Q: More data -> AGI?

Not just more horsepower.
If collaboration around world, tremendous increases in processing power, just by incremental improvements, we could reach AGI, but it depends on what people work on.

Q: Blind spots. What can't we do? What will AGI never be able to do?

Very difficult to answer, given my blind spots.
We ought to run the experiment and find out.

Q: Sasha/Canada: Self awareness, creative expression. Part of AGI?

No areas of human endeavor are walled off from AGI. 
No magic process (like creativity and self-expression) inside human being that is walled off from AGI. 
We will build machines that do everything humans do and then some.

Q: Protectionism from humans?

Already seen it in low level form.
Seems to me that most important thing to do is to take care of the basic security and survival needs of fellow citizens. Address the Grand Challenges. Lower levels of Maslow's hierarchy. Let them live in a realtively high quality of environment and the push back will be a lot less.

Q: Manuel/Spain: Types of problems to solve are limited. NP

I think when problems are extremely hard theoretically, what we will see are various forms of attack. Machines will attack problems people will not be able to solve. Later, machines will push limits.
Dan Barry: You know that the problem is fundamentally difficult. You can come up with something close. 
Instead of solving analytically, I'll solve numerically. Not going to solve it perfectly but can get close.

Q: Brazil: AI can lead us to AGI ..
lk
To clarify, I don't think incremental progress will necessarily lead to AGI. But it could, given exponential acceleraton.

Q: Narrow AI. Forecasting. Human - merge narrow AIs to simulated ... put in cloud. If this would be framework for general intelligence?

SIRI (recently bought by Apple), CALO
http://www.intomobile.com/2010/04/29/apple-acquires-siri-may-the-voice-powered-wars-begin/
Not final answer for AGI. Not satisfactory architecture. More brute force. We'll come up with more elegant solutions.

Q: Human intelligence - life experience. Building through nodes. What about crowd sourcing? Collecting through games, develop AI much much faster.
Protein structure in 2 weeks.

Really interesting.
Conflates issues.
Super human by networks of people
Really interesting and effective.
Multiple - achieves a kind of super intelligence.

Other issue: can we achieve an AGI by piecing together. May be possible. 
Architecture for doing that is pretty week.
Not on wiki.
Maybe on opencog
Collaboration by adding tagged data and things can get you partway up the curve on AGI
Human-level AI and beyond will probably come through more elegant solutions

Q: Can we build a system that learns from people?

Right. David Canfield Smith built systems to watch, infer - what kind of problems humans are trying to solve. You can get interesting results. No one has taken it to the point of watching humans, then going off on own.

Powerful rule: use massive amounts of data. Will be good at classification, but not broad, deep features of human intelligence.
Interesting, but needs more architectures.

Eric/Italy. AI on human brain. What about other intelligence? Tropical forest. Studies look at this for collective intelligence.

People building on Gregory Bateson work. Feature extract properties.
Heterogenous fields that don't talk to each other.
Ecosystem is on fringe of AI. It would be wotrthwile exploring this.

Q: Shary/US What perspectives are active in AI community?
Computational?
Cog/Psy?

Cog/Psy - Simon and Newell. Beautiful book. Whole conferences on cognitive psychology and AI.
Less so with organizational behaviour.

People most needed now 
Computational Neurobiologists - search to find really talented people.

Q: Eugiene/France: what lab to watch? What is most advance?
What could we learn about collaboration between robots?

Leading Labs?:
Depends on interest. Hierarchical Numenta, Redwood
MIT, Caltech, Stanford, CMU - All have some kind of AGI
DARPA community, typically one or more
Intelligence community.
http://www.numenta.com/
http://redwood.berkeley.edu/
http://www.csail.mit.edu/
http://robotics.caltech.edu/wiki/index.php/Main_Page
http://ai.stanford.edu/
http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~softagents/

Collaborative Robots:
Have to adapt to environment.
Quick feedback loop - plan/act/cycle
Fast learning from environment.

Interesting difference between static AIs.

Salim: Neil is core faculty. Time to ask questions.
Back in 7 minutes.

10:18

**********************************************************************************************************************

NOTE - we will continue with the EtherPad for Dan Barry's talk

Salim: NASA introductions

This is a lecture you will never forget for the rest of your lives.

AIR CL2 Adaptation & Cooperation (Dan Barry)
Slides: 
Audio: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0B0vcBiirD3NQOTczZTA2MzItMzVhNi00NjRhLWEwNTItYWUyYjc3MTQ0N2Mz&hl=en
AIR CL3 Robotic Communication (Dan Barry)
Slides: 
Audio: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0B0vcBiirD3NQZmI3NWIxODUtMGQyOC00ZTQ3LTg0YzktOTRiYjE2Yzc2ZWRk&hl=en

Dan: Neil has talked about AI. Now we will talk about AI in the real world.

That's not what I'm going to talk about first.
Principles of robotics.
I want you to remember
adaptation - respond to new situation
A second key word to take away today is cooperation trumps compeition in many situations.

Video - history.
German V2 blowing up.
Important to keep the pointy end forward \x3c\x3c key concept!
Now control system issue.
Really not good in rocketry.
No one was hurt in any of these videos.
$1 bn loss in 10 seconds.
Chinese - not just US and Germans that don't get it right.
Remember this is day one on the new job that you get this video.
Space X - just 3 years ago.
This one is pretty. Announcer is \"descriptive\"
\"It appears we have had an anolomly\"
Firestorm on ground.
You don not want to stand within a mile.
This is Cape Kenendy
More than 2 dozen cars are destroyed - windshields and tire rims melt.

So conclusion? Space Flight is Difficult.
You are getting ready to ride on these things.
People designing these rockets are bright people.
But from 1940s to last year, they blow up.
Every rocket, they put 4 in the ocean.
Why?
Why do you think when you build a rocket, using 50 year old principles, do they always blow up?
Everybody loses rockets?

Q: Complexity?

Sort of. Well understood. By the time Space X is launching.

Q: Explosive things on fire.

We do this with cars, trains and buses. We built a computer - see the wire in that sucker? It ran when we turned it on.

Q: Limits?
Q: Using compoents for first time? 
Never tested in env in which it will operate.
They have to perform perfectly first time.

Why can't you test in env?
No zero g.
Test stand is different.
Talk to Glenn - pogo - a resonance. Sloshing of fluids. Doesn't happen unless suspended in air.
Very first performance is first time.
Second = no ability to adapt.
One regine. All they will do
No ability to recover - no intelligence. no adaptation. Fundamental reason they fail: Adaptation.

Difference between machines and biology is adaptation.
We adapt at every scale: Every time and place.
We have immediate adaption.
Tennis - intermediat forms - you learn over years.
Long term evolution
Now adapation is in our environment. Tranformed equation a bit to the point we are transforming the climate.
Climate change allows shortsleeves shorts on Mars.

Having said that, I want to show you form of adaptation the best I have ever seen.
Hope you can see this bit of algae. Holy crap - octopus. Think of adaptation. Watch in reverse.

Octopus is matching all the attributes of it environment.

Don't put octopus in a cage that has any openings at all.
[video of octopus sliding through tube]
This iswhat life is like with no bones.
Less than 10%of body size.
Seattle put octopus with sharks - and sharks died.
If in Caymans, don't dive too close to algae.
That is adapation in animals.

As a clinician,
rehabilitation physician

Extreme arthritus patient.
Husband has cardiac issues.
\"I can't go to store because I can't start car. Can't hold pen. Zip zippers.\"
\"We want to live alone - no assisted living.\"
I'm listening to this fiercely independent woman and thinking this is what I went to medical school to help.
She pulls out tube which has key in it.
Pulls out hook - big handle, button hook. Now you can dress yourself.
List of 8-10 very simple tools that transformed her from dependence to independence.
Trivial cost -> significant difference.
Simple engineering to transform people's lives.

Saw so many other people with similar stories.
Spinal cord injury patients.
Think of the fear. Won't move arms or legs for the rest of your life.
Even that very first moment, chance you will never recover.
It is everyone's nightmare. First thing people want to do is commit suicide.
They ask physicians to let them die.
They have reactive depression for a long time.
Physician's role is to realize it is a panic attack.

Turns out, 3 weeks out. Meet others living indpendent lives.
You can live productive lfe.
Make friends.
Mind makes decision how to push past that.
We literally duct tape hands to oars. Get them paddling on the river.
Back to minimally assisted liveing. 
All throug adaptatoin.

Something that happened to me: Not a disability. Positive adapation.
Our bodies change so fast, they adapt to zero G.
you can get lost by being upside down.
When we train, read book, flip switch.

Does space make people stupid? Why going 1 2 4, skipping 3.

Q: Disorientation?

Negative training.
In space, you are floating. You hand is floating. So your hand and the list float.
Your eyes land in a differnet place.

Now, mark through steps.
Takes 3x as long in space due to external adapations.

Best story. Pilot in right seat. Only person after engines shut down for doing important stuff.
Hydraulics working. In right orbit.
Buddy says, \"I was trying to be a realy good pilot. Everyon having a great time. One guy has his hand in front of my face. I got annoyed, hit the hand. It is his OWN hand.\"
Lost corpre-hensive? sense.
Used hands to find where hands are.

At bedtime in space, My own hand was banging into my head. Only happened that first night.
Don't know whether adaptation was to sleep through bumps or stop doing them.

Rookie's job to make patch.
by the time you are on your third patch, you just want you name spelled right.

Supersonic jet.
Houston to FL, hour and a half.
Talking in cockpit 
T38
3 min in Shuttle.
LA to Boston in 10 min on Shuttle - if you are late to work or something.

Talking, going to go tonight? Finally time. The dream starts to come true.
Crank the sound
Shake and Bake
[Shuttle liftoff video]

2 min in, drop big boosters.
Only 3 Gs
8 1/2 min to orbit
Parallel parking at 5 miles per second
ISS at 17,000 mph
\"If not careful, you're going to hit that thing\"
Opening hatch. Bringing home crew - we were two months late.
Commander was REALLY happy to see us.
At this point, set record 10 people in space.
Safety briefing - what big red buttons not to push

Work you do is technician level work.
Batteries
Radio repairs
Installing mufflers - fans were loud
Fixing squeeky doors.
Trained on earth - 3 at a time. In space - 1 at a time.
How would you practice on Earth?

Culmination of Astronaut career is going \"outdoors\"
Spend a day preparing
You just learn how to do it while you are there.
Takes 2 hours to put suit on
You really don't want to miss a step here.
Marine colonel - renowned for following steps.
you HAVE to check off each step.
Opening door, stepping outside.
I'll talk later about beauty of environment.
There is a robot there. Very little autonomous robitics.
Always something goes wrong.
Bolt doesn't drive wiht power tool.
Ingenuity. Fix something right now.

Back indoors, work out at gym. All spring driven. You lose bone and mass in space.
Bungee holds you on treadmill.
Stupid astronaut tricks. Spinning people \"My eye balls are going to fall out!\"
Put students in middle of classroom - that's where they cant's get away.

Playing with food.
Tons of switches. Dog puller(?)
Beautiful , silver winged dragonfly.

Mr Junior Science - magnets. Gave me behavior I had not anticipated.
No convection of fluids.
You can drink out of ball. Won't stay in cup.
Tammy on 5th flight. Goldfish. Loot at dynamics of water ball. Cracker Goldfish (no animals were hurt).
Rest of crew came to help. 
No convection - study surface tension in isolated environment.
Used dental floss to bring two fluid balls together.

We do a lot of student experiments.
Disco Shine. Stayed up about 6 months.

45 minute task coming home. Flashes are giant fireballs. Like paparzzi.
St. Elmo's fire.
Shuttle is like slamming into waves on a boat. Rattling and shaking.

It is aglider coming in 8,000 miles away. Drops like rock. You've been in sapce.

No g's for 10 days. You do it. Training takes over.
No gear until 300 feet off the ground.
done these - and everyone has worked.

Roll down runway, let go of the shute. 
\"Wheel stop.\"
You've done this amazing thing. We all went and did this thing together.
You body says, \"Im not done with you\"
You are in your chair, exhausted. Ready to be greeted by friends and you can't stand up.
Legs go \"nope.\"
You sit there.
I know in 9 days my muscles are not the probelm.
Why can't I stand up?

First, a story. When you first get to space. The pilot and all. Woohoo, I'm in space.
Wife said, \"Hey that's Dan\"
What am I going to do: Tom Hanks. Floated glove in front of his face.
\"I really am in space\" unbuckled.
Dreaming of flying.
Push off from wall. Seeing other wall. Realizing I am going to hit it.
Half way through the cabin, I start kicking.
Vetrans in corners - so rookies don't kick us.
Tunnel - push off with pinkie.
You fly down tunnel. You see yourself start to drop.
Your body is tilting, not translating. so you kick with your feet and cram your head right into bulkhead.
Within 3 days - you konw your center of mass and fly like superman.
Next flight - home, not house.
People there 4 months have ADAPTED, learned how to live in space - dancing.

We are sitting together - not just physical adaption but also a not just physical adaption but also a mental adaption. Tasks done.
\"Lunch time\" we don't do that in space.
Staion guys do it.
Working in space, living in space - you can't work all the time.
Human beings need to have some downtime.
So - back to the issue - what isoing on with my legs.

SJP: Body memory.

Legs would push you through ceiling if used!
Bed pushed so hard. Felt I would blast through ceiling.

They say, \"Great job\"
Technician hands you clothes. You leave them right there. [holds hands out in air]
And what do they do? [smacks podium]
Gravity sucks.

So they tell spouses of returning astronauts: \"Don't hand them the baby.\"
[applause]

It takes a few days - no driving car. Couldn't fly plane.
Could not walk with eyes closed.
2 year later, 3 years later flew again.
No conscious difference - took 1 day.
Next time - 2 hours to readapt.
How can you take 3 days, then years later do again, body had figured out how to do that for you.
Nobody knows how that adapation occurs.

SO, what does this have to do with robots. Supposed to be a robot lecture, right?
Robots are not very adaptable.
Things that you think of when you think of human intelligence 
are wrapped around this idea of adaptation.

YOu can divide robots into autonomous and non autonomous
General purpose (a rumor) (no particular function but able to do just about anything) vs. special purpose (in a factory)
therefore 4 possible types based on the combinations of those two types

EXAMPLES: 
I. Autonomous special purpose
Video: Autonomous welding robots, people on floor is in very serious danger. No joysticks
Video: Warehouse robots: Kiva (http://www.kivasystems.com/index.html) a company that creates robots to carry items in a warehouse. Autonomous and special purpose. A huma in the loop, robots bring material to the humans. , Andy Barry use to work for Kiva
Video: Robotic fish
Video: Flowers combining robotics and art

II. non-autonomous robots special purpose
video: articulated hand controlled by a real hand, robo astronaut, robotic surgeon (da vinci)
video: big dog! walking robot for carrying heavy loads, Boston Dynamics mix between autonomous and non-autonomous
video: petman, two legged version of big dog
video: packbot, goes up stairs, durable enough to go through windows and jump off cliffs and water proof
\"better than a timex watch\"

III. Autonomous general purpose robots
video: leonardo - gizmo looking robot, expressing emptions towards elmo vs. cookie monster
video: willow garage opens door
http://www.willowgarage.com/
video: swarm, 278 robots communicating with each other, co-op behavior among many robots
[?]

When do robots NOT work:
example of robots and humans working together, some times it's good to have humans other times robots should stay in control
example: video of famous captain Sullenberger landing the passenger airplane in the hudson
Plane hits a flock of birds. Engines catch fire.
\"Lost thrust in both engines\"
Now heading to water. Very smart. If headed back to Laguardia, would have had crash.
Negotiation for Tetterboro landing. Pilot still hasn't turned. Focused on landing safely in Hudson.

\"Newark airport in 7 miles ...\"
Still trying to restart engines.
Out of ideas.
Lands in water.
That's it. Everybody lived. Everybody survived that because you had a person on board who understood the priorities. Person sitting next to him. Solved problem in real time.
Guy on normal takeoff. 10,000 hours. Notice how quiet. ONE comment on how pretty Hudson is. Cross check.
Captain recognizes hit. Takes control of the aircraft. Calls for procedure, rather than trust memory. He has already done boldface. Get started before you get book out.
Go through and cross check each other.
Cockpit warnings going on.
Trying to decide.
Methodically - assessing state of engines.
Air trafic control is helping.
Started to return to field. Then you hear him say, \"We have the runway ready\"
He didn't KNOW he could get back.
People on ground would die.
Crash in Hudson - no one on ground would die.
Other thing, over Hudson - has a shot at having some survivors.
Trying to get both engines. Guy looks out and sees Teeterboro.
OK, fine.
He then makes assessment, that he might, but might not. Waits to make turn.
If he gets decision YES, then he can commit.
Hoped engine relit.
Not going to happen.
At some point he puts focus on landing in river.
Flaps down.
Most brilliant. He says, \"Got any ideas?
He is ready an dable to listen for someone to tell him ...
that is having real control
think of all the variables, controls.
Thank the lord there wasn't a robot.

Contrast Colgate (?) chat about things.
First officer see ice. \"Very uncomfortable flying in ice\"
Never seen this much ice - 5 min before plane goes down.
Complacent.
Robot part of plane starts to shake the stick.
First officer raised flaps, made plane unrecoverable.
Two things - crew on top of it, other crew didn't take adavantage.
Not always true that humans are better at responding/adapting.

Given what you now know, I come back to opening ceremony question:
What good are robots?

Only Shary got back to me. Kudos.
So, it remains an open question to you.

I will tell you what robots do in my house and my company.

Nothing I can't do better myself.
We are cheering that it can fold towels.
Can get pizza and that is about it. Learned a few things, people are honest and never stolen from the robots and adapt quickly after working with the robot. 

The point is to transport a person from dependence to independence using robots. Add the element of intelligence to the robot and it transforms the persons life.

HOMEWORK: What should robots do in my house? How do we make Q/A time more interactive with everyone?

12:00 Lunch

[end of presentation]

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun29-NCS-CL1
"Tuesday 
6/29/2010 
9-10 am 
Brad Templeton/Salim Ismail 
NCS CL1 Network and Information
Slides: 
Audio: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0B0vcBiirD3NQYWQ1YTQyZTktNTNkMy00NjBlLWE4OGEtZTJkYTFjYmJlMGRm&hl=en

Presentation slides: http://www.templetons.com/slides/singu-intro.ppt
All Our Ideas crowdsourced questions: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10ncscl1

[Networking for Dummies Books: http://www.dummies.com/store/Computers-Internet/Networking.html]

\x3cnotes start here>

Color card definitions
Green - Agree
Red - Disagree
Yellow - Slow down (content) / I don't understand
Grey - Speed up we know this stuff / Move on to another topic

hands moving apart (sideways) - speak slower, speak more clearly

Computer's are getting faster but the bootup speed remains the same

What makes a revolution?
- Build technology for early adopters
-Nobody who can tell you \"no\"
- early adopters are usualy stupid people with too much money :) - willing to waste their money to stay ahead of the curve
-early adopters provide a market for new tech
-Insatiable market demand for doubling, less demand for incremental improvement
-Disruption!
no permitting process
The personal computer had its explosion in many ways as reaction to restricted mainframes.
People bought their own computer and it was THEIRS.
It is amazing how having to ask permission slows down development.
You want an open and hackable platform, you want a culture of talent. Competition to get to these early adopters.

Store full of stuff, including wire-wrap boards. For individuals to be buying this stuff for $20 drives revolutions.
Market wants things 2x better, not 10% better.
Thanks to slow boot - you want and need a faster computer.
Your old computer is seen as a dinosaur.
Moore's Law is not a principle of nature - it is a marketing order.
It became self-fullfilling
$1 bn was spent making the fabs to make those chips.

Book referenced: http://www.amazon.com/Free-Future-Radical-Chris-Anderson/dp/1401322905

Revolution in Networking - the internet broke a lot of rules.
Packet-switching networks were \"smart\"
Big institutional approach.
Internet tried something much more basic. David Isenberg [?]
Just get packets, put an address on it. Network does not try to be \"smart\"
Instead it only promises it will do its best. Not a guaranteed system.

Eric: Can you explain what a packet is?

On phone, you had circuit.
We may be meeting Vint Cerf.
Break into a few hundred bytes of data. Mine and yours stream together and get split later.
Some to Boston, some to Santiago.
Idea was, very simple system. Packet switching.
Let people innovate in boxes at endpoints.
That lets people do the innovation where no one can tell them no.
When someone comes up with something cool, they can do it.
Actually cheaper to fix the capacity and congestion problem by buying more bandwidth, rather than trying to get smarter.
Break network neutrality rule ... may not be best way to go. Misguided.

Another important thing - pricing related.
Best invention, not packets, but cost contract.
I pay for my line to the middle and don't care what goes in between.
Each building wire to the center.
No body could say no.
First famous application - coffee cup or fish tank in Internet lab.
Everyone wanted to see this.
If they had been charging per megabyte, guy would have had big bill.
Basically it let people experiment.
YouTube - people experimented.
No \"bean counters\" (accountants)

In networks, 
The internet isn't free but because of the flat pricing, it appears to be

Optical fiber now at 69 terabits per fiber with Dense Wave Division Multiplexing (DWDM) - equivalent to everyone on earth being on the phone at the same.
This includes multiple colors of light so you can send more information at the same time

Free Space Optics (FSO) - 100s of gb/s, terahertz

People think there is a limit to the amount of spectrum available. 

This is the actual of Wi-Fi miracle.
Take piece of spectrum. No body thought that
One very interesting rule. Your problem if you got interference.
I think that resulted in the greatest innovation in radio -
cordless phones
sprung up out of nowhere.
This lesson is slowing showing up.
Cognitive radios - not blind. Understand which bands to use based on which have the least ammount of interference.
Whitespace - frequency allocated to broadcasting service but not used locally, FCC ruled that these can now be used if they don't interefere with assigned broadcasts.
Lot of TV channels 2 to 59. Only 11% still get TV over the air.
Not 60 broadcasters. A few dozen at most.
Smart device could see no one is USING channels, jumps in and takes advantage of it.
This is being fought.

As long as big companies don't get in the way.
Glass roots revolution.
People buying fibre connecting to next block.
Freespace links. Changing the world.

Not a lot on programming languages.
In the beginning, low level - close to the machine.
Early on, probably C.
More common now is higher level - further from the computer. More abstract.
[JG: I like Python for example]
Result of this scripting is that programs are bigger and slower. Rely on features like garbage collection - reallocating memory that is no longer being used.
Different mission.
Waste resources - memory, hard disk,
and not waste your own time.
Sooooo many transistors, no need to make layout perfect.
Human time became more important than other resources.
So software bloated.
Fundamental theorem: \"Every problem can be solved by adding another level of indirection.\"
You have a name for a name that points on.
Let's you change things - implementation - at any level. Very powerful.
In virtualization, there is a lot going on between intent and implementation.

Next presentation will cover this.

PLE lecture. Another trend: software recall.
Legal consequences.
Companies can update software remotely.
Each package starts a new daemon. \"Is there a new program ... is there a new program\" Hence slow boots.

PlayStation 3 - disabled capabilities
IPhone
Amazaon 1984 \"unbooked\" deleted from Kindles.
Could they have picked a better book [?]

People are trying to abstract even more.
Virtualization - something that looks like a computer inside the computer.
You might have Parallels - looks to Windows like a Windows PC (running on Mac)

Build a room that puts virtual computers inside computers.
Computing on demand.
We can sell you a hour's time - Windows Linux (not so much Mac).
You can buy 1 or 1000 for an hour.
Trend: Cloud Computing.

I will rail about second one - take personal data and store it on machines owned by 3rd parties.

This is the trend. Can delivery massively parallel computing. 1000s and 1000s of computers on demand.

Goes from big computers (main frames) owned, to time sharing, to PC, to client-server mix, to finally this cloud thing, \"Web mosft
something\"
People trying to do more in servers.
All desktops - all that matters is running Javascript.

Media.
History has axis - serial vs browsed. Push vs sampled.
E-mail 1, then another.
Blog, serial.
Magazine.
On-line is like that.

Browser - hop around. Not prepared sequence.

Two types of serial -
IM
SMS
vs
Serial you ask for:
Blogs
E-mail

Sampled is old/new.
Twitter. Interesting from other streams, you don't follow whole feed.
Other than surfing TV, this is a new type of media.

Other axis: reader vs writer friendly.
NY Times is reader friendly. Pyramid style. 
vs
Wiki is writer friendly - easy to go in and change. Hard to follow.
Browse, but otherwise very writer friendly.

Use categories to help understand.

All new media create information overload.
FIND new? Ah .... I don't get enough! Too much signal.
Signal to noise - how much good to useless.
Too much good information on Internet. 
Problem is not finding but filtering - you will deliberately NOT read all that is good.

FREE model. David Rose.
When you want ad revenues, efficiency issue. How many ads did I show to people.
How many leads?
TV ads - 30 seconds, gets 2 cents to network to show that ad.
You get hooked to buy product.
Google gets 2 cents. How many spend 30 seconds. Eyes spend 1/2 second.
google is deliveering same value to the advertiser in much less time.
Delivers value of ads to you 50x better.

Coming up: next 10 years of hardware and software.

Open source Wed. Visit Google
Quantum computing.
End of the week: social media/networking.

Wed: City of the future - wired and full of robots. Delivery robots take things around.

www.Robocars.net (brad's website - can see his current book project)

Workshops on the internt of things.
Room full of cubes in silicon valley - not good site visits.

Visit Frye's
Exploratorium.
Tech museum
Hacker Dojo [JG: Yes. This was cool!]

At NASA, Homebrew robotics at building 23.
Kathryn has calendar here: []

Jan Gray.
Went off to work at Microsoft to examine strategy.
We built them one way, now multicore.
Changes what computers, especially software, have to do.
Will get much more technical.
Moore's law is at the basis of everything.

Jan:
- Scaling Up Computing Power
Slides at https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaYWU0MWJlODctZWQzZi00MTk1LThiN2UtZDlkODNjMWMwODAw&sort=name&layout=list&pid=0B2Ij9HPeinaFODJjNjVlYTItNTlhMC00YzI0LWFlZDEtM2U3NTg3ODc5OTNj&cindex=1
Audio: http://bit.ly/9ORmN4
I was born when Moore's Law was framed. Hope it will keep scaling up.
Around 2004, ebb in performance scaling. Run from 1970 to 2000. Doubling every 2 years.

1 MHz to 3000.
Each clock cycle did more.
Heat disappated went up.
Rounding off of clock speed: 3 GHz
Yet we've gone from 10,000s to millions of transistors on a die.

do we have a good c?
architectures - how to spend them?
How does software change?

Some electronics. MOSFET 
Transistor is three terminal device. Source, drain. Control gate.
Channel has semi-conductor material.

If NO voltage, channel doesn't conduct.
If positive voltage, you get conduction from source to drain.

[Video - sand to silicon chip]
Make one large silicon crystal.
Slice it.
Photolithography.
A resist. Expose through mask with many many copies on round wafer.
Etch, deposit. 
Build parts of transistor - 9 layers of metal.
100s of saws cut it up.

Several hundred billion transistors on that one die.

[Chart from S. Borkar]
Each 2 years, we go into a new technology Node. Smaller by 0.7x. Doubling in 2 year.
Quadrupling of transistors on a die.

Quarter of a trillion transistors on a die by 2018.
Rate of speed improvement is going down. Not as well as they used to.
Then it will slow down to every three years after that

Extend 193nm refractive lithography
Optical proximity correction, double patterning

13nm EUV lithography
soft x-rays, vacuum chambers

Transistors:
new material in gate, insulator, channel

DRAM - capacitor, 2x/3y
FLASH PROM - floating gate 2x/1.5y 64gb at 25nm

3d: stack cells vertically
resistance change/phase change RAM
amorphous/cystalline

Slowing of transistor doublings (now we are 2x in 3yr)
But.. cost halvings still continuing - \"22nm ought to be enough for anybody\"

Computer Architecture
1986-2002, computers 2x in speed every year but now its leveling off

Instruction Level Parallelism (ILP) [cut and paste from slides]
Spending Transistors on Performance - run programs 2x as fast

L1 cache reduces memory access time
Branch prediction for determining where the program is heading
Vector operations FPU's for working with videos/graphics

Over 30 years - CPU cycle time 1000ns -> 0.3ns but DRAM access time 500ns -> 100ns
sometimes progress stops for hundreds of nanoseconds

\"The Power Wall\"
Over last 30 years: die size larger, voltage 15->1v, frequency 1->300MHz, Power 1->100W
like the heat of a rocket at 1000x and surface of the sun at 10000x, just can't go there

P porportional to CV^2f

the power wall is the limiting design constraint

\"Complexity Wall\"
diminishing returns in wide-issue machines
only a tiny part of the die is actually doing processes

\"Explicit Parallelism - Multi-Core\"
much more area efficient
power wall is still there, how to solve?
finesse power with lower V, lower frequency, sleeping of transistors
finesse memory wall with memory parallelism
can't think of anything better so let's see if we can get the programers to get it to work
32 cores = 1 trillion floating points per second

Single-Chip Cloud - 48 individual cores

\"Scaling Up Memory Bandwidth\"
TFLOPS need TB/s of data.... 100s of GB/s not nearly enough
solution: bumping, die stacking

\"Silicon Photonics\"
should surpass copper traces for non-local interconnect
optical links at TB speed
Die stacking + Photonics = adequate bandwidth for next generation

\"Graphics Processor Computing\"
100s of cores
1000s of threads

Graphics module is very accessible to scientific and technical computing.
GPU use is still \"black magic\"
Game enthusiasts buy $500 boards and drive supercomputing.
Nvidia chip with 500 cores.
http://www.nvidia.com/content/global/global.php
http://www.nvidia.com/object/cool_stuff.html

Systems on Chip, Network on Chip, Modularity, Heterogeneity
database with large cores, small cores, media cores etc... mix and match for different problem domains
After 2015, a lot more fault detection on chips
Eventually to the point that computers are modular/stackable

iPhone G4, optimized for low energy

Eurocloud - research project that makes 3D cloud computing on a chip

Break at 10:26
Brad: I hope this was good. [Green and red card votes.]
Building a chip today is like trying to paint art with a paint roller

Connor: SU exponential technologies. Age of abundance.
How will computer design / chip /datacenter design when energy is limitless.

Jan: All large scale production systems will be expensive, hard to deploy. Don't know where ..
IF we had unlimited energy, constraints would go away until planet melts down.

Brad: Unless we come up with technologies, like reversible computing.
They get as hot as surface of the sun.

Jan: We'll just use lasers to put energy in space.
Brad: Or put computing in space. [Dmitry?]

Eric: Glass revolution. Explain a bit more. People-to-people.
Brad: In English, Grass roots is something coming from bottom.
Markets have exponential growth. If networking is done at grass roots, connecting neighbors with Gigabit.
Like Wi-Fi - always a hotspot somewhere near you.
Sometimes give away free.
Revolution of access.
Take that model so you can go to local electronics store.
Fibre is safe.
Not worth stealing - unlike valuable copper.
Sends immense amount of data that does not involve phone companies.
[applause]

: Wondering about cloud. What is next?
Brad: Stratosphere. Proposal to put computers in space. Actually latency to LEO is quite good. As good as using something on your desk.
Other proposals - quantum computing next week.
Strange rules of quantum physics to do computing in small groups of atoms.
May still have clouds of quantum computers.
That will stick around.
Jan: 50x or 100x cost reduction of processors in the cloud.

Brad: Buy computer today, run for 3 years. What is most expensive part: 
The ELECTRICITY.
Not fixing that well right now.
Home energy track may address this.

Dmitry: Vacuum of space? Cold? Problems.
Brad: Only cool by radiation. Not so good.
Dan Berry- when they take laptops into space, they must put fans on them because cooling does not happen by convection in AIR.

: So the cloud is built and operated by companies at the moment. Should it be?
Brad: Next session.

Brad (GSP Brad): 
Jan: PhysX - software physics interface. Discontinued ?agea? 
Now in GPU. Gathered they felt scaling of GPU did Physics stuff without using 2 chips.

Sarah/ Australia: Potentials for supercomputing involving biological systems? Interfaces?
Jan: Lovely image of chip + neuron.
Inspired architectures - neocortex type in hardware, very interesting.

Brad: DNA computing?
Very slow, but for free, DNA will grow and may come out with calculation.
Jan: Biological circuits. DNA has nice property of complementary base pairs. Some parts of the strand bind tightly. Others left dangling. You can do AND gates. Strand activates whole other computation.
Not aiming for TFLOPS. Rather simple computation to unlock drug at particular site.
Kind of taking experience with computers and getting state, amplification in DNA strands.
Sky is the limit on what you could do with this.

Brad: You guys have been very interactive.
Tony / Korea: End of Moore's Law? Society is depending on it - some industries would close? Implications of plateau?
Jan: Every technology has one of these cycles. Fortunate technologies go through phases, slow down, turn to new technology.
Theme of this talk - uni-processor slowed, however with more cores - with parallel software we should get back to fast rate of scaling.
Not stopped growing - still getting 10-15% better. That is amazing.
We will either transition to something else or cheaper ...
Brad: Pause now. Come back in 7-8 minutes.
10:43

NEW PAD AFTER BREAK: 
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun29-NCS-CL3

[end of presentation]
All Our Ideas crowdsourced questions: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10ncscl1
Please take 2 minutes to vote for suggestions.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul19-SPS
"7/19/2010 
Monday 
9 am - 12 pm 

OUTDOORS near Building 20

SPS Session: Implications of Galactic Communities 
Dan Barry

How fast do you need to go?
If you are pushed at 1 G throughout trip, you can get 6 nines.
99.9999% of speed of light.
What's going to happen, we are going slow.
Earth time and ship time are the same.
As we start going really fast, Earth time slows down.
It allows you to go to really far, distant places.

Explanation of why times slows down on a ship.
Dilation.
What is the deal with relativity.
Speed of light looks the same, regardless of frame of reference.
Walking along together - he and I are not moving relative to one another, but we are both moving relative to you.

Speed of light is going at the same speed regardless of perspective.
Why does light always look the same?
If it didn't then you could go the same speed as light.
And, if you did that, you could look at a light beam.
This would violate physics.
It is an oscillating field.
Einstein said, you can never catch one.

Sounds like a cop out.
Other people came up with other explanations.

But you base predictions on your cop out answer.
It might have been Dobachevsky.
But Einstein got the right answer.
Trick is when your hypothesis predicts physical things,
people do those experiments.
Newton was on top for awhile.
Someday someone may replace Einstein in terms of accuracy.

Clocks go tic-toc.
Now what happens if I move the whole thing.
Does it change the rate of tic-toc if you move it?

It changes the distance the photon has to travel.

You can take that to the bank.
It all boils down to pythagoras.
A lot of you look skeptical.
You all now understand the entire basis of special relativity.

Inside your ship, time is running slower.
Alpha Centuri - 4.3 light years away.
You cannot get there any faster than that.
If you get on ship accelerating at 0.1 G - it will take you 13 years to get there.
12.x on your calendar.

I see you get there in ~6 years at 1 G. You get there in 3 yrs.
You can get to A C in \"2 years\" if you accelerate at 2 G for the entire trip.
Spend time -
Who wants to go to Cyrius - 9 light years away
0.1 20 17 on board
2 G? 3 yrs on board 

Bettle 520 l y away - - 7 yrs at 2 G
Center of galaxy - 10 lightyears

Andromeda - 15 yrs.
On Earth, 2.2 m years.

Round trip to Cyrius - 18 years on Earth. You'll be 6 years older.

Q: ???
Got to figure out where it is going to be when you get there.
Orbital mechanics.

How fast can you ultimately go?
What is the limit?
Energy.
Can only slow down so fast. True.
Mass. Another effect - as you go faster, you become more massive.
You also become shorter in the direction you are travelling.
Ultimately, as you compress these things, you turn into little black holes.
So, that occurs, 
let me just show you
black hole has characteristic mass
Equation is very simple
Radius = 2 x gravitational constant / c^2 = 1.5 x 10^-27 m/kg
A very small number.
For 1 kg, say, you would have to shrink it to 10^-27 m in radius to turn it into a black hole.
Pop. 
It becomes a black hole.
Electrons have radius 10^-24 m.
So what mass would electron have to have?
Mass would have to be 10^3.
If you can make your electrons be 1000 kgs, about a ton.
If an electron weighs a ton ... well, that is hard to do.
But it will when you get up to 16 nines.
99.99999999999999% of the speed of light.
When you get going fast enough, 

Maybe your protons go first.
I didn't do that calculation.
Just as bad for you.

Erez: Is that a relative effect? So outside they think you are a black hole, but on board you are not?
Yes.

So, what does this mean.
Kids can go to college on Vega.

It means, I can order a pizza from 10 light years away.
Dominos makes the pizza with 12 9's. Pizza can get to me in an hour, still hot, but 10 years since I placed the order.
Guy gets paid 20 years later.
So, what does that mean? A stream of pizzas, constant - you need to trust the people you are dealing with when delays get long.
10 teams.
Break up.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun30-FEE
"
.Wednesday 
6/30/2010 
11:30
David Rose

Future of the firm

Slides: [Jonathan Badal]
All Our Ideas: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10fee29jun

Kathryn will review later looking for any [ref] markers--She and TFs will fill these in with references, but all are welcome (encouraged) to add references / put in as many details as are available.

11:38
David Rose: Making connections.
Going from genetic sequencing.
Romer last night, putting a billion people in Australia.
Economic aspects of business and economies.
How robotics and stuff effects real world and gets to market.

I will try to speak slightly faster than I usually do so you can get lunch.

Lunch in upstate New York.
Crystal Bay. Near marina. Not built recently. Sitting in large industrial park.
Why?
Found picture showing same place with a whole lot of other buildings.
What was this?
Turned out it was once the world's largest yeast factory.
In the lifetime of my parents, was the biggest in the world.
Self-contained city. Own docks. 
What is it that created this enormous company?
That made it disappear so only left is a restaurant.
Technological changes:
Outsourcing
Crowdsourcing ...
Offshoring
New way of business: Mass Collaboration.
Very different from 20th century.
Wikinomics.

What is the future of the company/firm.
Go backwards to see why they exist in the first place.

Adam Smith. Father of economic capitalism.
The invisible hand.
People acting on their own, guided by free market, will get things done.
If people do what they do: 
fix
build
etc.
Then they do deals, would not need companies at all.
What changes that?
Why did companies get started?
Ronald Coase: The Nature of the Firm 1937 [ref]
Something has to get in there and futz (manipulate) with it.
That thing/person is the entrepreneur.
What are all the possible reasons to override freemarket.

1/ Some people like to work for someone else? No. Sub-optimize.
2/ Some people like being bosses.
3/ No one in business is sub-optimizing, it is consumers who want to pay more. [BRANDS?]

As technology specializes and scale and distance increaase complexity increases requiring more _____

If you are using a lot of people to do something, more-and-more people involved.
Can't just grow and sell rose.
You get transactions from people working together.
What are transactions?
What do you charge.
Make contracts.
Fixed price - what about risk, who takes that.
How are profits divided up. Things change - then what.

Catch to each is \"Cost\"
Every time 2 people get together - transaction costs.
As long as it is cheaper to do things yourself than do transactions, you will do it in house.
And your house will get bigger.
Ford - one thing in garage.
Another with factory.
you will not buy one tire each time you built one car.
You may want tire plant in your operation [vertical integration]
Therefore you will get larger and larger and larger

For that, Cose won Nobel Prize in 1991.
This is why firms grow.
Guy still at U of Chicago.

So Ford. 
Scale up. Requires lots of components.
This is where it ends up. Rouge River Plant - one honking big plant.
100,000 people working here.
90 miles of its own railroad tracks and 30 miles of its own Roads
[JG: This was in my backyard growing up and let me tell you -- it STINKS - and is mostly a wasteland now]
Found out that paper was big external cost turned out transaction costs were cheaper to make their own paper to print their manuals to put into their cars

[Slide: IBM \"city\"]
1000s working there. Now gone.
Why? 
Because, over half a century, it became cheaper to go back out. 
Outsourcing.
When you get source and you have to go through large bureaucracy to do one thing you lose economy of scale, becomes better to outsource

Externalities in effect
A/ Cost
B/ Can do things better outside. Find innovation.

Angel investors rarely see IPO (Initial Public Offering). More often acquired = outsourcing of innovation.

You can outsource virtually anything these days.
IT
Human Resources
Facility - lease back
Manage real estate
Accountants
Tech support
Mfg
Overseas shops
Outsource your community management - on Twitter for you in India.
Outsourcing market now an enourmous number.

Example: local Conde Nast titles on news stand.
Garden Design magazine
One person produces entire magazine.
Outsources photos, writing, subscriptions, etc.
Now replaces what took hundreds before.

Example of a crowd source company:
http://www.pond5.com 

Cable channels use this. Think of Space Aliens. Used to be like a film production.
Pond5 has 300,000 clips. You can upload, obtain picture, say, of Hangar 1
at NASA.
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/ames/home/2008/hangar_index.html
Put on a voice over and - without ever having a film crew or even a camera - a whole cable show.

Florists
National retail associations (FTD = Florists' Transworld Delivery?)
FTD clearance system
National phone retailers (1-800-Flowers)
National web retailers (ProFlowers.com)
Individual flower farms (farmstogo.com)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florists'_Transworld_Delivery

Columbian florist will ship direct to you.
Using FedEx.
Decrease in external tranaction costs.
What is interesting is global scale.

Every company must think globally. You can not think locally.
You have to assume your business should be global.

Angelsoft.
Started with a global concept.
We are - today - this teeny-weeny company, leads the world in angel technology.
Spain coming.
World business association
50+
Suppliers can be anywhere, customers, etc.

Cloud computing - rack space at Amazon.
Design team 
CFO
Research
HR
Sales
Anything you do you can outsource all this stuff

$154 B. 
Tiny tiny companies -
Outsourcing = total global market of everything.

panjiva
Outsources everything. Takes data in. Knocks data together.
Find someone who makes pants.
Find reputation
Who they sell to
Are they specialized
That is for COMPANIES

For individuals,
personal assistants. 

Freelance marketplace
http://www.elance.com
http://www.guru.com
http://www.odesk.com
http://www.getafreelancer.com
http://www.rentacoder.com
http://www.j.gd/15901.html = Crowdspring --> logo, brochures
http://www.quirky.com

The crowdsourcing Process 8 steps:
1. company has a problem
2. Compnay broadcasts problem to crowd and asked for solutions
3. Online 'crowd' is asked to give solutions. 
4. Crowd submits solutions
5. crowd vets solutions
6. company rewards winners
7. Company owns winning solutions
8. Company Profits

Wikinomics (3 years old)
Principles
- being open
- peering
- sharing
- acting globally

Put all the information about products on the net.
How many deals in last year.
How much time to deal. 
So totally transparency and some of them are embarrassing, could take 3 weeks to 1 month to look at a deal.

Willling to open up, get people who know what they are getting as customers.
You know exactly what you are getting

Being open to peer to peer, sharing
The last ten deals have all been shared with other angel groups

Act globally, whatever you're doing, must look at a global level

Concept of FREE

What cannot be shared?
Virtually nothing

Jason was foudner of www.PriceLine.com 
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:PCLN

Take the idea of globalize, sharing on national security
We have a big problem with lots of facilities and installations around the US that could be a potential target
But it's cheap with advancing technology, put cheap webcams on areas that should be no-man-land
take a shot every few seconds and outsource to crowd who looks for people in pictures

Do you see a person or vehicle in this image?
Options: Yes/No/Not sure
If someone sees a person more pictures are taken quickly and those pictures are crowd sourced until enough people say 'yes' and a security force is mobilized to intercept.

http://www.csoonline.com/article/218490/us-homeguard-someone-to-watch-over-you
\"Jay Walker, founder of Priceline.com, has moved from the auction business to the security business with US HomeGuard, an idea that would pay ordinary citizens $10 an hour to stare at surveillance video looking for terrorist activity.\"

Bob Rice - Three moves ahead
on Amazon: http://amzn.to/9lIBnA
Use heuristics like a human chess player in business to get great results, have solid ideas (protect queen, control corners and diagnals) and plan strategy around those
\"social networks will become profit networks as they are increasingly used to form jazz bands to attack specific tasks\"

The essence of entrepreneurial talent in the future
The ultimate entrepreneur of the future is someone who can pull talent around his area

Dave Brubeck
with your molecular structure, your talent
you should be able to form your own jazz band

Q: What DON'T you outsource.
One thing all this requires is the entrepreneur.
The unreasonable man. Shumpeter.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Schumpeter

Q: Would you invest in a company where everything was outsourced?
A: absolutely, Why inhouse when better outsourced?
Plenty of fish site in Canada. Was one person. Now 10. Multi-hundred dollar corporation.

[web ref] Free Online Dating at Plentyoffish.com\u2122
100% Free online dating and matchmaking service for singles. 1300000 Daily Active Members.
www.plentyoffish.com/ 

Q: Everyone could copy your ideas if you're outsourcing them?
Keep constantly innovating. Pulling things together.
The entrepreneur must be flexible and must be constantly changing.

Q: Lifecycle shorter for outsourced business?
Hosting on amazon: nothing says it will be better hosted internally.
Just-in-time delivery/production
Can be left with infrastructure.
We are in a rapidly changing world - better to outsource.

Q: Back to crowdsourcing. Social and ethical implications. Crowd is unpaid, takes risks. 
Issue raised with CrowdSpring. Less with 
Are you exploiting people? Changing rules as Romer said.
Nothing wrong with working on spec.
Person is making the decision - time is worth it, on balance.
If Madison Avenue, $50,000 logo - you can't do it.
If your entire family's income is $50 / month - and you double your income. Not a negative.

Q: That's how architects work. One wins, rest waste several $1000.
I'm a market capitalist. Market will stabilize.
Scale whole thing. Look at economics.
Individual designers can sit on beach you saw in Paul's thing, that works.

Q: Pushing complexity - of simple tasks. What about complex tasks. Our company outsources, but there are always issues of quality and piecing things together.
True. We are in the middle of the curve. Now you are doing it. Challenges in quality and logistics. Reputation systems coming. 
Pre-quality control
Outsourced project management
Mechanical Turk (again)
Anybody who needs something done - \"Is there a person in this photo\" to \"Review restaurant in Mountain View.\" Anyone can do it. Pay for it.
Social Mom. Backend platform. True blood story (again). Now on BluRay. Can connect to internet. Log in to Facebook account. It will tweet that you are watching and [yes, we know] it will make you look like a vampire in your photo. Sends your picture to MT to find two eyes and corner of mouth. They go \"beep beep beep\" and they get 25 cents.
Either bright 10 year old kid or someone somewhere far, far away in a distant land.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun29-NCS-CL3
"Tuesday 
6/29/2010 
\"11:30 \u2013 12:30pm\" 

Brad Templeton 
NCS CL3 Network and Information

Slides: http://www.templetons.com/slides/singu-security-priv.ppt
All Our Ideas: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10ncscl3

10:52
Salim: We are getting started. Please grab your seats.
Student with a brief announcement.
: VECOY meeting tonight.

Salim: OK. Red/Green. 

Brad: Green - if you agree.
Can just shout GOOAAAL if you need to.
Our teaching fellow is from Spain.
What technology is going to give us.

Jan: [picking up at slide 37]
About what happens with software in this new regime.
All the other cores sit idle.
Database servers have already been written to use lots of cores.
Parallel query plan for SQL.
Web servers all send queries - peel off and send each request to a core.
Emergence of services in the cloud - divide up computation, they divide up, massively parallel, will scale beautiful.
3D graphics, games.
iPad can do molecular renderings.

Another place working well - technical and high performance computing.
Libraries off the shelf.
With GPUs and clusters, that much more headroom - 10s of TFLOPS in you office.

How do we more the mainstream desktop software so it can take advantage.
When I worked on problem at Micorsoft - mission statement:
\"Provide loveable parallel programming models, tools, and infrastructure to enable any developer to write robust software that scales up on new hardware.\"

Matrix example.
Sort example. Divide and conquer algorithm. Recursive split - on a large piece of data to sort, we are willing to go 10 or 100 way parallel if that many cores are available.

Stream example. Should scale as more cores are provided.
None of these are robust - require shared memory.
Each says, \"It is OK with me if you run this. Promise of no concurrent access.\"
Dominant model. Shared memory. Locks control shared memory. Fine for experts in small teams. Not good for large software ecology. No data race flags.
Some experts will still go to shared memory, more isolated models will be transitioned to.

Amdahl's Law. Remaining serial parts will still be slow.
If just 10% serial, won't get more than 10x faster, regardless of number of cores.

Personal computer processing is \"bursty\" (comes in bursts)
If you are typing the processor is busy, if you are not, it is asleep.

Idea: functions put in libraries
Models for recursive decomposition problems.
Message passing models - works well at internet scale and also in memory.
Can have isolated processes that don't share memory. This model does not have the shared memory, data race pitfalls.

MatLab example - lots of array processing.

Parallel Legacy Software?
Ought to be a \"magic\" compiler. 
Word has millions of lines of code with complex interactions.
Lot of investment in automatic parallelization tools, but only small point successes.

Serial dependencies - calling library - takes a lock, puts in a block - maybe yes maybe no.
Key press, mouse movement ... a lot of computation is done on that core thread.
Because there are so many layers - requires detangling single thread assumptions.
Better to just start over.

If companies chase new rainbows, reengineer stuff that is 20 years old.

More likely: compose new ???

Brad said emerging technology has demand question. Games, technical computing. Not superhuge markets compared to PC and phone markets.
\"My mom\" does not need TFLOPS. Extra $200 does not help her - until those applications emerge. [Open Allure???]

New software gobbles up hardware and brings it to its knees.

In summary:
End of rapid scaling. Still 10-15% per year.
Software that scales at this rapid rate will have to be written in parallel.
Software has to be more efficient.
Need to have systems performance-optimized to become more energy efficient.
\"I reduced the energy by a factor of 2 - giving more battery life.\"
Will give us new opportunities in the decade ahead.
11:19

Q: Matt: Feasibility of 3D printing for circuits.

Jan: Couple of things. 3D integrated circuits are FOR SURE the future.
Another memory company doing stacking for density.

Also difficulty of scaling lithography. Contact printing. Not sure how they make blank, but they impress -- just like old lithography -- get parallel rendering.

Brad: ????
Jan: Maybe. Still like photolithography myself.
Maybe 3D printing - I should have gone to the talk last night.
We do 5 - 10 layers now. So 3D would just be more layers.
FPGA's - like a reconfigurable computer - different sets of gates that you can build at home. \"It is equivalent to the rule that 

Q: No home .. 
Jan: My hobby is building processors at home.
You can do anything in the garage if you have the right garage.
FPGA - I want an AND gate to be the input of this thing.
They've gotten huge.
A billion gates.
You could build anything Intel did 10 years ago you can do at home.
In addition to hobbyists, 
specialist processing for chess, DNA,
you get something much better than general purpose chip.
Closest to hobbyist computer design.
Also people doing printing - inkjet printer transistors ..

Q: Emiliano: Hardware guys doing their things. CUDA. OpenCL.
Software guys trying to build new languages. 
In the middle, what is basically missing, 
PicStream?
Rapid7
Anyone else in the middle.
What is problem matching up?

Jan: Computer architecture folks taking top down approach. What hardware do we need.
Much better than past. I know a cool structure, maybe some application would light it up.
Bit late to the party.
Can't tell you about any favorite software tool startups.
Best work in parallel tools is Intel.
They have Parallel Studio - addresses seveeral considerations. Finding races. Uncovering parallel opportuniteis.
In addition to commercial projects, teams working
APL?
Microsofts, Intels have a lot riding on parallel scaling up.
apple OpenCL
Grand Central Dispatch

Brad: One more. Connor will host talk to help. Maneul will also help define terms. Jan here Wed. And me.
Connor: 9pm. No overlap with HIV talk.
Parallel computing, optimizing energy. Leverage large distributed computer networks created by cell phones. Push computations to distributed network where energy is cheap.

Jan: Like peer-to-peer computing idea. Not so clear about all the cell phones in California.
Not digging the energy market idea. Interesting, but sceptical. 

Brad: Alright. Thank you very much Jan.
[applause]
11:30

Brad Templeton - Computer Insecurity and Privacy
Slides: http://www.templetons.com/slides/singu-security-priv.ppt

EFF http://www.eff.org/
Computer security sucks - yet we seem to be getting along
Most users are good, small num of bot nets and spammers
Automation automates both good and evil things

Firewall Hoax - like what we have at Nasa Ames
Isn't secure if laptops go into public places, get infected and then go back into their 'secure' homes or offices

Monoculture creates attractive targets, windows is so prevalent therefore most attacked
Liability for software makers won't work because one super virus will simple destroy the company
We haven't yet found how to incentivise greater security.

Bot Nets
Computer is secretly controlled by foreign user
30% of computers are botted
Primarily benign things like spamming
Most viciously used for DDOS (distributed denial of service) attack, could be used for extortion, costs about $8

Public Key Encryption - publish the key so everyone can encrpyt but only you can read, or everyone can read but only you can sign
- like a mails slot, creates a certificate/signature
- most comp security is based on keys
ZUI zero user interface - works so well no one knows it's going on. An example is Skype.
SSH - secure shell, used in command line, just works
SSL - it's a little involved to setup so 99% of web traffic is going on unencrypted wires

Example SSL Search - Google https://www.google.com 
\"With Google search over SSL, you can have an end-to-end encrypted search solution between your computer and Google. This secured channel helps protect your search terms and your search results pages from being intercepted by a third party. This provides you with a more secure and private search experience.
To use search over SSL, visit https://encrypted.google.com each time you perform a search. Note that only Google web search is available over SSL, so other search products like Google Images and Google Maps are not currently available over SSL. When you're searching over SSL, these properties may not appear in the left panel.\"
http://www.google.com/support/websearch/bin/answer.py?answer=173733&hl=en

Phishing & Social Engineering:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phishing
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_engineering_(security)
A lot of hacking is social engineering, tricking people into giving you their passwords - (The Art of Deception by Kevin Mitnick)

A big reason 99% of traffic is not encrypted is because govt. made it a little hard to do and used weak encryptions

DES http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_Encryption_Standard
WEP http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wired_Equivalent_Privacy

We'll learn more about quantum encryption which physics says is impossible to break

Some Topics:
Value of Privacy
Threats to Privacy
Now and in the future and other countries
Erasure of 4th amendment
Ease of use and user choice as negatives

Privacy is freedom.
When you are watched, you feel less free.
Heisenberg uncertainty
Observed that you couldn't observe a system without affecting it in the quantum physics world

A watched populace never boils
Apes (us) are the only ones who need privacy

Blinded By Science
Look hard enough in a big enpough sea of data; You will probably find whatever you're looking for; A seattle firefighter learned this the hard way; His house burnt down and his wife died; He was charged with arson and almost went to jail (because he bought a fire making chemical - for bbq - some time back), luckily the real arsonist was caught. 
Scientists barely know this, juries definitely don't

You don't care about privacy until after it's invaded
You must protect others privacy to protect your own
There really is a slippery slope
We don't want to walk the edge of a police state

Shy people need privacy in a way that extroverts won't understand

Cloud applications
- Storing applications in the cloud - don't have to worry about distrtibuting it and making it cross platform complient and vairous individual settings on various systems
- Roaming, Scalability

[Slide of \"cloud\" - of atomic explosion!!!]

Pendulum effect
went from timesharing to pc back to timesharing (with clouds)

Consequences:
Data is leaving your hands
What we use to call spyware is now ubiquitous
You give up your right to refuse search and seizure when you give your data away like that, in effect you erase the 4th ammendment
We must be careful in not building the infrastructure of a police state
Don't intall the switch and make the question of freedom a policy question, by doing so you can have a police state without the tanks
e.g. Bush asking NSA which asked phone companies to tap the fiber optics due to terrorism without asking judges, later pardoned via POTUS working with congress

AI Privacy Invasion
- always been able to followable one person but now it's scalable to follow everyone and with AI we can have intelligent detectives following everyone

AI could judge us based on our past
- storage is cheap and laws change
- \"are you or have you ever been ...\"

Somewhere in the world governments will use facebook to roundup groups of people
- Don't facilitate big brothers

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expectation_of_privacy

China has pushed the Police State button.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NSA_warrantless_surveillance_controversy

Whole new level of privacy invasion coming with AI.
AI will have better ability to recognize faces, voices, will learn a lot of stuff.
Scalability is the key to everything.
Always been possible to follow people. It costs money. 
Usually we mean it scales linearly.
Computers can do things a MILLION times more.
With AI, you can follow everyone with a \"Sam Spade\" (fictional detective)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Spade

ATM recorded your visit with a webcam. 
AIs will scan the past, punish you for sins of the future.
Not only what is the threat today, but what can the future do - reaching back to hurt us.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falun_Gong
What if Chinese Falun Gong followers had been on Facebook?
We do not want to be the preferred vendor for Big Brother (reference to Orwell 1984: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen_Eighty-Four )

Traditionally we have had a balance.
We are changing that balance. Think about it.

Ease of Use is a Bug
Magnetic stripe on a license is an easy way to transer info
Before long web forms made you never want to join a website,
Facebook made it easy to share private info with fb apps

Must consider the impact on privacy and policies caused by these accelerating technologies

BEPSI: Bulk Export of Personal and Sensitive Information.
http://ideas.4brad.com/rename-data-portability-bepsi

Q: Alison: RFID - 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radio-frequency_identification
Brad: chip in your passport. No battery, powered by radio burst.
Can't check into hotel without showing your passport. May contain health data.
Can be read from 3 feet away. 

Q: Sasha.Privacy Insurance.
Brad: About calcluating risk. Don't know enough.
Privacy insurance:http://www.networkworld.com/community/node/26132

Q: /France: Give prints at border. Took passport and tested it to see if it was fake.
Brad: At border, they can do unconstitutional things to you.

Q: National Security issues.
Brad: They don't inform us. Aware that security in the US is in terrible shape.
Idea that there might be a cyber attack.
Would like to have the internet privately owned. The way it is now.

Q: Steve Cronnin from the US. Looking forward 20 years, if government is capable of misuse. What protections can be put in?
Brad: Sceptical. 
Proposal - number working on same philosophy. Own personal cloud. Like a safety deposit. Code comes to data rather than data coming to the code.
Google does not want to destroy value of data.
In Europe, there are laws on data retention. Some FORCE retention. Other laws FORBID retention.
doing everything with one company is monoculture.
I like Google a lot, but there are negatives.

Q: Even good intentions at corporate level doesn't stop one employee who could access data. Censorship in China.
Brad: They (Google) found China used their control to attack (dissidents).

Q: Rosa: Stockholders. Information is most valuable asset.
Google interesting in that way: give stockholders less power, keep it with founders.
You are trusting the founders of Google.

Q: Candice of Canada. Global privacy. International privacy push? Like human rights.
Unfortunately, anti-privacy push. [needs better link here]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-piracy

Q: People who want access.
Brad: A little bit. Not up on digital rights stuff.

Q: David H/NZ: Next revolution DNA knowledge. People give up privacy out of complacency or information overload. What if there are values to it?
Brad: I asked for people who design these policies to make conscious choices.
I just want people to not go gung-ho and not consider the balance.

Q: Eric. Singularity coming. Know everything about everyone else. My DNA. My data. Just someone who wants to know it can do it.
Brad: Lot more surveillance that could be done.
Recommended the Book: David Brin, Transparent Society. Is on shelf from Smart.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Transparent_Society

Sarah: Anti-sedition act as knee-jerk reaction to war on terror. Cleared within a week. Public expression that questions government in any way was seditious.
Brad: Why didn't they fix it?
Sarah: New privacy laws for system which are almost as strict as Chinese government. We are blocked from speaking out against this privacy law. Orignially for children's rights. Accessnow.org.(http://www.accessnow.org/) Global organization to protect imprisoned bloggers. Will go in, if someone is arrested.

No independent voice. The threat of hive logic is so overwhelming.
Brad: AUS has great vision of freedom. Many did things equally bad. US had Patriot Act.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patriot_Act
AUS has net filtering law
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_censorship_in_Australia

Q: Julielynn Wong: Canada/US. Is security of personal health information an illusion.
HIPPA is about security.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIPPA
Have access to your health data but let the storage be owned by YOU not by a company storing it for you. We need to find a halfway between the PC we have and the CLOUD we are going to.

When databases are built, they have a job of saying, \"what can we do that is interesting\" and \"how can we make money.\"
If the company gives stuff free - the exchange is they get data to make money.
There is a pony in there (US joke reference: http://mustbeaponyinthere.com/ )

Q: Eugenie/France:
Brad: May deliberately set up system with no access.
Every attempt to anonymize data, can be de-anonymized because there are things in there to figure out who is who. Google's removing last octet is not enough.

Afternoon off.
Salim: As you can see, we have a fascinating set of discussions ahead of us.
Brad: Google thing tomorrow.
Salim: Justina is a postdoc at harvard.
Justina: personalized systems. From GSP09.
Em: camera lost

Day/afternoon off. Bus wil leave at 583C. to Shoreline park. Trails. Biking trails - we can borrow bikes. Frisbees/ toys. Til 5:30.
For the evening - another session sponsored by FEE track. Paul Roemer.
Other announcements.
For cards, please keep them in your badge holder.
Feedback for lecturers - already up in GSP10 portal. You can do that.
Another petition for opening up the gym.
Petition sheet in 583C.
Jose? Marathon.
1/ Organizing energy trip for one of two nuclear fusion. Other in france. We need 45 days of clearance. I need your signature.
2/ Etherpad for marathon: http://su-etherpad.com/sfmarathon

Q: Chiara. Gym = swimming pool.
Same people.
Brad: John Gage and I still working on track. I live in Silicon Valley .. if you say, \"my god, if we could go there ...\"
Salim: Two last things- camera - you guys are absent minded people! Great to have revolving policy. Going crazy with submissions.

[showing of Etherpad video]

[End of presentation]
All Our Ideas: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10ncscl3

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun30-FSF
"Thursday 
7/1/2010 
11:30-12:30 
Paul Saffo 
FSF CL Cultivating intuition: effective forecasting in the face of rapid change

Slides: 

Kathryn will review later looking for any [ref] markers--She and TFs will fill these in with references, but all are welcome (encouraged) to add references / put in as many details as available.

11:32
Paul Saffo - responsible for Futures Track here.
http://www.saffo.com
Smaller than last year.
Difference between catholics and congregationalists.
Catholics go to heaven. Congregationalists go to a meeting about going to heaven.
Entire summer for you is exercise in forecasting.
You have domain experts who are forecast minded.
In that spirit - 

I teach forecasting to engineers. Have been here for 25 years in Silicon Valley.
I have outlived my own forecasts.
Just started a new company. Caught enterpreneurial disease from Peter.

Having the luxury of all these experts. Talking about specifics. What are the (heuristics) methods I use.

Forecasting Methods

Navigating uncertainty \u2013 effective forecasting in an uncertain time

[Slide CNN Hunt for Bin Laden. Experts agree leader is dead or alive.]
Very good forecast. 
Reminds you of that lament: one armed economist,
I would wish for a one armed econoomist because they say, \"one the one hand ... on the other hand\"
Essence of forecasting is to embrace uncertainty
When facing uncertain situation, don't pretend there is no uncertainty just because it makes you feel uncomfortable.
Learn to live with uncertainty
Thus this is how I think of forcasting
You are thinking of an event and you can draw out the outcomes, not unlike a forcaster thinking about a hurricane's path, the same is done with technology
the cone going out from the event is narrow but it gets wider with time

Forcasting is not only difficult it is logically impossible, the fact is that the uncertainty behind forcasting is intrensic
I think that's good news
of course if we could get a peak into the futre, why bother

The bottom line behind why ones forecast is to get a range of possible outcomes and what can one do in the present to make the most agreeable choice happen

As you thinks of future lectures and team projects, always assume you're wrong. Forcast often and repeatedly. The interest is finding a cone that has balance, not too narrow not too wide

Try not to miss possiblities. Identify the key driving factors.
What are the driving forces underlying the thing that you are looking at that and are going to have the biggest factors in driving its change.
Jim Dater U of HI [ref]
Three kinds
*Continuations
*Cycles
*Novelties.

Constants:
Moore's Law. Predictable rate, we take for granted.
Imagine if \"will stall\" we'll be stuck with Windows 7 forever.

Usually the bulk of what is happening. We tend to miss because we take them for granted.
Continuations - identify them and make sure you identify all of them

Cycles:
Not here today, was yesterday, will be tomorrow.
Sun spots - starting cycle 24.
Kondratiev wave [ref]
In 1925 . Super cycles.
Only detail - it can be dangerous being a forecaster. Made Stalin very unhappy.
K died in a gulag in 1948.
Sometimes just tell boss what he wants to konw.

prosperity, recession, depression, improvement wave

We REALLY overlook the novelties. No frame of reference with which to measure it.
G basketball video. Don't tell - you miss the obvious.
Our perception causes us to miss things that are completely new
The mother of all novelties in 2008/9 not sure exactly when it happened human population is majority Urban.
In the 10,000 years since we started building this planet it never happened
Not like it never happened Lately - it neer happened AT ALL. Could have huge impact.
Was just a little blurb in teh news. 
Dig underneath it = over 1 bn urban dwellers live in jury-rigged houses on land they don't own.
Hmmm maybe that's a novelty that could have a very big impact.
Once you've identified driving forces, look for Cross-Impact.
Rarely will one driving force be alone, look at more than one things coming together
Interaction among driving forces.
Cross impacts.
Take forecast of global population - humans can't grow exponentially foreever.
Inflection point due to urbanization.
Can we build livable cities or will we have a global slum.

Or does it become the global slumHam operators? Sun spot cycle example HF care, rest should as well. If really bad, our computers might not work.
Devices sensitive to electromagnetic pulses.
Sun spots may be a lot more relevant.

Scenarios - plural. If just one, it is not a scenario.
Explore options
look at different options
Back of envelope coctail party to million dollar study.

Multiple possilbe outcomes.

They way to integrate these all together is scenarios. The whole point is to explore and look at many different outcomes.
Here is how I approach it at its essence.
A scenario forces you to look at all the possibilites, cross impacts

Singularity
It is coming.
Hmmm. Are we sure?
What are the driving forces?
Tech change.
Other axis. What could I choose.
Public accpetance is assumed. - Maybe tehy won't accept it.
Four squares you can fill in.
Graph of Innovation Rate (stagnation to acceleration) vs. Public Acceptance (low to high)
I find 2 dim is enough. No compute rsoftware required.
High inv rate, public loves it. K's duet.
Shorthand for celebrating 150th birthday, playing piano duet with his late father who is present as an AI.
Come up with snappy titles - otherwise it blends into gray goo.

Singularity? What Singularity?
Just like space program. Went to moon. Expected Mars. Now \"pissing around in low earth orbit\" you can lean out the window of ISS and trail your fingers through the atmosphere.
Only geeks care about space today.
Rest of world could care less.

Not WORST possible - one step further. 
Fast growth in tech and people gets scared. Mad as hell.
Remembe what happened to Knod
Public comes after you at night with flaming torches.

Final square:
Tech stagnates, but public buys in.
Desperately Seeking Singularities - people get mad. We counted on you to save the world an dyou failed us. Won't buy stock in your company.

So now let me ask you a quick question:
Show of hands. Who thinks which is most likely.
Other state?

Don't take your scenarios too seriously.
General public will not see what is coming.
you will confuse desired future with actual future.
You have to engage in Active Cognitive Dissonance to see alternatives.
The other reason to use scenarios is there is a
Big difference between forecast and reality.
Reality does not have to be \"believable\"

You see guys with a kite. They fly in it. suddenly people predicted personal flight.
Orville says, \"No. Never will happen. Only insane hobbyists wil have that. Instead, we will all fly around with aluminum cylinders with 100s of people and they will be unhappy when they are 30 minutes late.\" He would have been locked up.
Wing span is longer of entire flight of Wright brothers in 1903.
Think of Wildcards. Extend and test your scenarios.
Probe outer end of that cone of uncertainty.
Nothing is ever certain. 2012 Maya prophecy [ref]
Even, not knowing that, omit.

Unlikely things - reality has way of making unlikely come to pass.
Other contexts - things can become drivers.
You may feel an earthquake. USGS has done studies.
I have a high precision point on my property. It is moving 2 1/3 inches a year to the NW.
62% chance of quake.
Wildcard - magnitude 7 quake behind now and lunch.
If it hit, we've got the big one.
Driving forces can be wildcards if put in a specific time frame.

You know all about ...
from Ray's book.
Flat spot on left - pay close attention
We are linear thinkers. Very hard to forecast.
This tends to be what happens with visionaries.
They have such clear sight, they draw a straight line.
Early lesson I learned.
Never mistake a clear view for a short distance.
Entrepreneurs constantly do this.
Overestimate short term, underestimate long term.
People walk away just as business is taking off.
This can be very powerful tool for inflection point spotting.

What's going to be the next big hit? Look for something that has been failing for 20 years.
Rule of thumb 1: CHERISH FAILURE -especially if it is someone else's failure.
S curves apply to more than just tech
It can also apply to things like exploration of the new worl by europeans
Where did Columbus fall on this curve he was not at the turning point, he wasn't the first there, the first to make it back
Columbus came back when geo political environment was just right
Timing is everything
In biology innvoation is mutation and generally only happens when organism is under stress.
It's a very risky maneuver, Innovation (mutation) is generally lethal.

Habitat was an early Second Life
Rule of thumb 2: Indicators precede inflections (and the stranger the better)
1. contradictions - gold and google stock example Oct. 2007 vs Nov 2008
2. inversions - drug cartel cops example
3. oddities - roomba and DARPA grand challenge example

When times are bad gold is high stocks are low, when good stocks are high gold is low but mid 2007 - early 2008 both were high and it scared me
Rule of thumb 3: When change clusters at the extremes ... much more change is coming
Sure enough the economy tanked

Inversion of cops in hiding while criminal is proud in front of the camera, inversions happen all the time

When super wealthy is saying the roomba changed her life, people are naming bots and taking them on vacation, that was an inflection of robots making a big impact

Darpa Grand Challenge 1 - non completed, furthest got 7 miles, race was 150 miles
Darpa Grand Challenge 2 (one year later) - 5 completed the race

Reaching inflection point
Pile up of hundreds of cars north of Darpa challenge on the same day - people shouldn't drive!!

A new technology arrives and sit sets the space for innovation, for the take off of an ensuing innovation.
micro processor leads to PC
lasers lead to communication access/world wide web
sensor technology leads to interaction and robots \x3c- the next big thing

If you are going to look forward look back as well

Technological Ages
1. Chemistry - ealry 1900s
2. Physics - 1930s
3. Electronics - 1960s
4. Biology - 2000s

every technology works off each other incrementally
as you are moving forward think about these longer slower fields

What can you get a date with at a cocktail party?

Tip Jar: If you fear change, leave it in here

Embrace Uncertainty! But keep in mind you will scare everyone around you.
paul@saffo.com

[end of presentation]

Watch 2 minute Tech Update on YouTube: 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyNBZMjz2QU
on SU video server:
http://video.google.com/a/singularityu.org/#/Play/contentId=12569090359a5e04
=================================================================
Question Template [for copy/paste - do not use]
Vote by adding +XX where XX are your initials (see key: http://su-etherpad.com/initials)
Student Question:
Student Votes: 
Student Comments:
Faculty Response:
=================================================================
Student Question: http://www.saffo.com/essays/disinteremediation.php says value chains are getting longer, not shorter. This came up yesterday for me as I looked at bicycle sharing which has become successful due to an ADVERTISING company. What other examples / opportunities for longer value chains do you see?
Student Votes: +JG
Student Comments: 
Faculty Response: 

Student Question: What comes after bio?
Student Votes: 
Student Comments:
Faculty Response: Perhaps nano, even though that's combined with bio
History of technology. More control over smaller stuff.
Nano.

Student Question: Black Swan [ref] How have you dealt with that in forecasting?
Student Votes: 
Student Comments:
Faculty Response:
An indicator, read book. Nice meditation on how unlikely events can be much more likely.
Lebanon was place he learned to expect unexpected.
Systems susceptable to 

Let me recommend:
AI Track. You've got to read this. Software robots here already. Scarry consequences of bots. Daemon by Daniel Suarez.
http://www.thedaemon.com/

Student Question: What things are people excited about that probably won't pan out anytime soon?
Student Votes: 
Student Comments:
Faculty Response:
Has anybody taken a Roomba apart? There probably won't be a all-in-one AI robot anytime soon
It is just a pile of transistors. It is an imposter.
Vision of intelligences smarter than us ...
Most of our friends can't pass the turing test.
Good news . it is probably far off. If we are very lucky, they will treat us like pets. If we are unlucky, they will treat us as food.

Student Question: Backcasting. Merge with forecasting

Eric Eze: Backcasting: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backcasting
Eric Eze: backcasting 2: http://www.thenaturalstep.org/the-system-conditions

Student Votes: 
Student Comments:
Faculty Response:
Start wtih preferred future. Work back. Very powerful tool.
Thanks for mentioning.
[applause]
Salim: Couple of announcements.
Different format to try more interaction/discussion. We'll try that out.
Bus to Google -your name has to be on the list for you to go.

Yoga and basketball and boot camp tonight.

Canoe and beer for Canada night.

Instant Evaluation:
https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/gsp10/feedback/week-2

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun29-NCS-CL2
"Tuesday 
6/29/2010 
10:15 \u2013 11:15 

Jan Gray 
NCS CL2 Network and Information

Moores Law: The Marvelous MOSFET, see slides with image. 

Notes were just put at the end of the http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun29-NCS-CL1 pad.

Jan:
Slides at https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaYWU0MWJlODctZWQzZi00MTk1LThiN2UtZDlkODNjMWMwODAw&sort=name&layout=list&pid=0B2Ij9HPeinaFODJjNjVlYTItNTlhMC00YzI0LWFlZDEtM2U3NTg3ODc5OTNj&cindex=1
I was born when Moore's Law was framed. Hope it will keep scaling up.
Around 2004, ebb in performance scaling. Run from 1970 to 2000. Doubling every 2 years.

1 MHz to 3000.
Each clock cycle did more.
Heat disappated went up.
Rounding off of clock speed: 3 GHz
Yet we've gone from 10,000s to millions of transistors on a die.

do we have a good c?
architectures - how to spend them?
How does software change?

Some electronics. MOSFET 
Transistor is three terminal device. Source, drain. Control gate.
Channel has semi-conductor material.

If NO voltage, channel doesn't conduct.
If positive voltage, you get conduction from source to drain.

[Video - sand to silicon chip]
Make one large silicon crystal.
Slice it.
Photolithography.
A resist. Expose through mask with many many copies on round wafer.
Etch, deposit. 
Build parts of transistor - 9 layers of metal.
100s of saws cut it up.

Several hundred billion transistors on that one die.

[Chart from S. Borkar]
Each 2 years, we go into a new technology Node. Smaller by 0.7x. Doubling in 2 year.
Quadrupling of transistors on a die.

Quarter of a trillion transistors on a die by 2018.
Rate of speed improvement is going down. Not as well as they used to.
Then it will slow down to every three years after that

Extend 193nm refractive lithography
Optical proximity correction, double patterning

13nm EUV lithography
soft x-rays, vacuum chambers

Transistors:
new material in gate, insulator, channel

DRAM - capacitor, 2x/3y
FLASH PROM - floating gate 2x/1.5y 64gb at 25nm

3d: stack cells vertically
resistance change/phase change RAM
amorphous/cystalline

Slowing of transistor doublings (now we are 2x in 3yr)
But.. cost halvings still continuing - \"22nm ought to be enough for anybody\"

Computer Architecture
1986-2002, computers 2x in speed every year but now its leveling off

Instruction Level Parallelism (ILP) [cut and paste from slides]
Spending Transistors on Performance - run programs 2x as fast

L1 cache reduces memory access time
Branch prediction for determining where the program is heading
Vector operations FPU's for working with videos/graphics

Over 30 years - CPU cycle time 1000ns -> 0.3ns but DRAM access time 500ns -> 100ns
sometimes progress stops for hundreds of nanoseconds

\"The Power Wall\"
Over last 30 years: die size larger, voltage 15->1v, frequency 1->300MHz, Power 1->100W
like the heat of a rocket at 1000x and surface of the sun at 10000x, just can't go there

P porportional to CV^2f

the power wall is the limiting design constraint

\"Complexity Wall\"
diminishing returns in wide-issue machines
only a tiny part of the die is actually doing processes

\"Explicit Parallelism - Multi-Core\"
much more area efficient
power wall is still there, how to solve?
finesse power with lower V, lower frequency, sleeping of transistors
finesse memory wall with memory parallelism
can't think of anything better so let's see if we can get the programers to get it to work
32 cores = 1 trillion floating points per second

Single-Chip Cloud - 48 individual cores

\"Scaling Up Memory Bandwidth\"
TFLOPS need TB/s of data.... 100s of GB/s not nearly enough
solution: bumping, die stacking

\"Silicon Photonics\"
should surpass copper traces for non-local interconnect
optical links at TB speed
Die stacking + Photonics = adequate bandwidth for next generation

\"Graphics Processor Computing\"
100s of cores
1000s of threads

Graphics module is very accessible to scientific and technical computing.
GPU use is still \"black magic\"
Game enthusiasts buy $500 boards and drive supercomputing.
Nvidia chip with 500 cores.
http://www.nvidia.com/content/global/global.php
http://www.nvidia.com/object/cool_stuff.html

Systems on Chip, Network on Chip, Modularity, Heterogeneity
database with large cores, small cores, media cores etc... mix and match for different problem domains
After 2015, a lot more fault detection on chips
Eventually to the point that computers are modular/stackable

iPhone G4, optimized for low energy

Eurocloud - research project that makes 3D cloud computing on a chip

Break at 10:26
Brad: I hope this was good. [Green and red card votes.]
Building a chip today is like trying to paint art with a paint roller

Connor: SU exponential technologies. Age of abundance.
How will computer design / chip /datacenter design when energy is limitless.

Jan: All large scale production systems will be expensive, hard to deploy. Don't know where ..
IF we had unlimited energy, constraints would go away until planet melts down.

Brad: Unless we come up with technologies, like reversible computing.
They get as hot as surface of the sun.

Jan: We'll just use lasers to put energy in space.
Brad: Or put computing in space. [Dmitry?]

Eric: Glass revolution. Explain a bit more. People-to-people.
Brad: In English, Grass roots is something coming from bottom.
Markets have exponential growth. If networking is done at grass roots, connecting neighbors with Gigabit.
Like Wi-Fi - always a hotspot somewhere near you.
Sometimes give away free.
Revolution of access.
Take that model so you can go to local electronics store.
Fibre is safe.
Not worth stealing - unlike valuable copper.
Sends immense amount of data that does not involve phone companies.
[applause]

: Wondering about cloud. What is next?
Brad: Stratosphere. Proposal to put computers in space. Actually latency to LEO is quite good. As good as using something on your desk.
Other proposals - quantum computing next week.
Strange rules of quantum physics to do computing in small groups of atoms.
May still have clouds of quantum computers.
That will stick around.
Jan: 50x or 100x cost reduction of processors in the cloud.

Brad: Buy computer today, run for 3 years. What is most expensive part: 
The ELECTRICITY.
Not fixing that well right now.
Home energy track may address this.

Dmitry: Vacuum of space? Cold? Problems.
Brad: Only cool by radiation. Not so good.
Dan Berry- when they take laptops into space, they must put fans on them because cooling does not happen by convection in AIR.

: So the cloud is built and operated by companies at the moment. Should it be?
Brad: Next session.

Brad (GSP Brad): 
Jan: PhysX - software physics interface. Discontinued ?agea? 
Now in GPU. Gathered they felt scaling of GPU did Physics stuff without using 2 chips.

Sarah/ Australia: Potentials for supercomputing involving biological systems? Interfaces?
Jan: Lovely image of chip + neuron.
Inspired architectures - neocortex type in hardware, very interesting.

Brad: DNA computing?
Very slow, but for free, DNA will grow and may come out with calculation.
Jan: Biological curcuits. DNA has nice property of complementary base pairs. Some parts of the strand bind tightly. Others left dangling. You can do AND gates. Strand activates whole other computation.
Not aiming for TFLOPS. Rather simple computation to unlock drug at particular site.
Kind of taking experience with computers and getting state, amplification in DNA strands.
Sky is the limit on what you could do with this.

Brad: You guys have been very interactive.
Tony / Korea: End of Moore's Law? Society is depending on it - some industries would close? Implications of plateau?
Jan: Every technology has one of these cycles. Fortunate technologies go through phases, slow down, turn to new technology.
Theme of this talk - uni-processor slowed, however with more cores - with parallel software we should get back to fast rate of scaling.
Not stopped growing - still getting 10-15% better. That is amazing.
We will either transition to something else or cheaper ...
Brad: Pause now. Come back in 7-8 minutes.
10:43

NEW PAD AFTER BREAK: 
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun29-NCS-CL3

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul13-SPS
"7/13/2010 
Tuesday 
9:00 - 10:00 am 
SPS CL1 . Exploration of Mars (Pete Worden)
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B2Ij9HPeinaFOGEwYmExODktZTAyOC00Y2E3LWFiM2QtYzZmODI4ZWZlYzgz&hl=en

10:15 \u2013 11:15 am 
SPS CL3 Outward from Earth (Chris McKay)
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/present/view?id=0AWIj9HPeinaFZGY2cDNjOXpfNDQ3ZGI4anYyZ2M&hl=en

11:30 \u2013 12:30 pm 
SPS CL2 Rocket Equation (Dan Barry)
(outdoors
9:10
NASA does three things.
1/ Science. Has been exciting decade. We don't know hardly anything about the universe. That's called job security.
2/ We do a lot of stuff to help life on Earth. Climate change. Revolutionize green aviation. Carbon neutral, eventually carbon free air travel.
3/ Human space flight. Objective is to begin settling the solar system.

What we are doing. Where we might go.

- Virgle. The Adventure of Many Lifetimes
http://www.google.com/virgle/
Joint venture between Virgin and Google called Virgle
On April 1st, but may not be a joke.

- Settling Mars
Most likely place for permament human habitat is Mars
Typically interesting part of mars is below the surface
Keys to settling mars or anywhere else 
1. In-Situ resource utilization
2. stepping stones via asteroids
3. one way? \"president doesn't agree but I do\"

- Mars Surface - Showing crater with ice
Mars: It's Big, pretty dead world
Surface is volatile and rich

- Potential aquifers under the soil
- Methane on mars suggests potential life processes

Life on Earth could have come from panspermia, asteroids from Mars containing life
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia
Near-Earth asteroids may be a good stepping stone for getting to Mars

-Known (current) NEO Population
There are thousands of these things that are easily accessible
http://www.cfa.harvard.edu/iau/lists/InnerPlot2.html

- Asteroid Itokawa
1/2 kilometer, typical asteroid between earth and mars

- Asteroid and Comets visited to date
Itokawa is just a dot compared to other asteroids
Composition ranges from almost pure metal to ices and other volatiles( bodes for life)

- NASA's exploration lauch architecture
Saturn 5 used for apollo missions, replaced with shuttle that turned out to be not so cheap
Underfunded by 50% - 200%
- NEO missions
-
Easier to go to an asteroid than it is to go to the lunar surface
Moon has about 1/6 gravity but asteroids are much smaller and have essentially no gravity
- 5 month mission to a near earth asteroid
- Exporation Metro Map
If were going o go to a lot of places in the solar system why not build something that can do that
A space metro system
Build sstems that can go to asteroids, mars, outer planets and equilibrium points between objects

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta-v

- We want to turn low earth orbit travel to private sector
Later in the decade want missions to get to the moon
Build the first true space ship
Next step would be getting to equilbriums and space walks near these objects
Final step is to Mars
- Reusability and Advanced systems
using 'ion' drives

-Stepping stones strategy
moon and lunar robotics, deep space, asteroids, moons of mars, mars, ...
- 
get to main belt in next [?] years
- Asteroids
building blocks of solar system
overtime collided and coalesced into planets

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event

- 
Nasa Ames is getting half a billion with DOD to create space ship [SPE?]
- Mars has two moons Phobos and Deimos
why to phobos? may contain volatile surface, raditation safe haven, can use robotics, good staging ground
-
- 
Itokawa is prbbly, others are smooth, shows differences we need to do spectrography
- LCROSS \"bombing\" the moon
I twittered \"Nasa Ames is go for first bombing run of the moon\" got some conspiracy theorists worried and leadership told me to shut up

\"NASA Bombing of the Moon may create conflict with ET's, UFO's\"
http://macedoniaonline.eu/content/view/7216/56/

Cost 78 million dollars, pretty good mission
-
- Benefits of Commercialization
Falcon 9 launch in June, first rocket feveloped in US in a long time completely with private funding
- 
Photo of illuminated via natural illuminescence cyano bacteria, one of the oldest organisms we know, helpd to create an oxygen atmosphere
-
- Biology beat checmicals and physical methods for food production
Cyanobacteria spirullina
- Craig Venter
\"Over the next 20 years, synthetic genomics is going to become the standard for building anything\"
- Applications of synthetic biology to NASA
- Pharmasat -1
http://tia.arc.nasa.gov/pharmasat/
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/PharmaSat/lists/memberships
- Harabusa NEO and Tagish Lake Meteorite
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tagish_lake_meteorite
- meteor is about 30% volatiles, looks like coal, can we grow cyanobacteria on these
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyanobacteria
-
-Deimos and Phobos
Orbits are very close to mars, makes a fairly good space station for telerobotic exploration of mars

- Life on Mars?
say what we thought was fossilzed bacteria on asteroids but much smaller than any bacteria on Earth
- War of thw Worlds
Life is a scary thing, let's make sure there's none before we do any drilling
- Places in space for life
Meteors and Asteroids, Craters with Ice, Mars
- Terraforming Mars?
seems life the possibility is there
very interesting prospect
- Other target opportunities
-
Paper says there could be life on mars or Titan due to methane
-
Other worlds with liquids, Mars, Europa, Enceladus, Titan
-
Keplar, first device primarily used for finding earth like objects
we now have 6 months worth of data with about 20 candidate planets but there are other factors
- 
Possilbe to find Pandora like moons
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyphemus

-
Close with a few words on private funding settlement
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayflower (didn't go so well)
- Pick of pilgrims
it's a serious issue
-
There are caves on Mars that could be potentially sealed and could be used to create earthlike conditions and atmosphere
-
Nasa toyed with idea of selling space but didn't go far
-
Now more progress is being made in commercial sector
-
In conclusion
1. We will soon have ability to visit Mars and other places in Solar System
2. Settlement is the only rationale for human space travel
3. Path to Mars could be via near earth asteroids and Phobos
4. Use bio-engineeed tech to make what we need
5. Private one-way setllement missions could occur soon

Q: With everything moving in space how much do launch windows affect these missions?
A: Does make a difference but not that much ???

Q. How well are space technologies being deployed on Earth?
A: Use to be good at this but not anymore, Nasa just doesn't have much better tech than private sector now

Technology Development and Infusion from NASA's Innovative Partnerships Program
Douglas A. Comstock
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/324711main_ieeeac_paper_138.pdf

Q: What are the reasons that private rockets are cheaper now?
A: NASA had a lot of money and maybe Elon Musk 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk
did use/steal previous work but so what? Highlights the efficiency of privately funded lean and narrow focused endeavors.

http://nasajobs.nasa.gov/

Invited to NASA bar and golf course.
10:04 [applause]
10:16 Chris McKay
-
Astrobiolgy is the study of the origin, evolution, distribution, and future of life in the universe
The future involves human choice and actions
-
I want to propose an answer to the question: why do we care?
-
-
Whiy is Mars useful for human exploration
1. Did Mars have a past in terms of life?
no role for humans here
2. Can Mars support life?
involves humans
3. Can Mars have a biologiical future
our decision
-
Don't send humans because they will contaminate Mars before we can determine it's own potential for life
-
True story, on July 4th 1997 we sent bacteria to Mars, they came unarmed and peacefully
Most died
They were dormant on the landing craft
Pathfinder
-
After Viking we stopped sterilzing landers
We know where the contamination is, we know where the parachute, heat shield and lander are
-
-
Death on Mars from UV light means that bacteria can't live on surface, we could remove contamination by cleaning up pieces
-
Rabbit removal from antartica vs. australia is linear vs. exponential for same reasons of harsh environment
-
Three possibilities for Past life on mars
1. No life, no worries
2. Common origin of Earth life, very little worries
3. It was a second genesis unrelated to Earth, true aliens, could be worries
-
Tree of life, all life is just one biochemistry, aliens could potentially not be on our tree of life
Assigning Moral Status:
- Moral Agents are rational, 
- Moral Status, we humans assign moral status
Pain, complex behavior & communication, or membership in a set.
Set theory example: being human (if your not rational, you have same moral status as rational humans, just for being a member of a set) 
2 sets we assign moral status: life and sets

-
Moral Status of Alien Microbes,
Argue that microbes score moral status on pain and ect.. but high moral status for life 2.0. 
-
Argue we need to biological reverse exploration. 
Drilling below the surface could lead to non-reversible bio contamination
-
-
We should have bio-reversible \"ctrl Z\" option
ok/cancel prompt: \"Are you sure you want to drill into thes subsurface Martian aquifer?\"
-
-
Do you notice the difference between these two pictures?
- Long term view of beinging Mars back to life, terraforming, Water may have been a marble, now is dry, maybe will be again in the future
Don't have all the components for life but Building blocks are there we just have to assemble them
-
Terraforming mars is live a descent down a high mountain
-
How do we warm it up? Use greenhouse gases other than chlorine and bromine

There is no meaningful difference between life and nature on earth. But in Mars there is no life, so do we value nature or life? 

1990 McKay, tried to evaluate ethics independant of life on earth. (see slide)
My adding life, we can add it some sort of intrensic value. 
Takes actions of Deep Ecology (Naess, 1984) as true, then 

Deep Ecology: 
There is inherit value in life, the more wide spread and diverse the life the more valuable.
Our goal on Mars is to enhance and enrich life in the universe.Deep Ecology: 
There is inherit value in life, the more wide spread and diverse the life the more valuable.
Our goal on Mars is to enhance and enrich life in the universe.

Q: What about extremophiles
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extremophile
A: unique in location but not in DNA

11:03 [applause]
Dan: Next lecture by building 20.
Em: Announcement - badges.

=============== POST-presentation notes

Instant Evaluation:
https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/gsp10/feedback/week-4

https://spreadsheets.google.com/a/singularityu.org/viewform?formkey=dGZadGpDejljY0JaWnRnV2Q1SEdYRGc6MQ

"
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul12-AIR
"
7/12/2010 
Monday
9am - 10am 
AIR CL7 AI Agents and Assistants 
Adam Cheyer
Where: Ballroom (B3)
Slides: http://adam.cheyer.com/news.html (actually, link is broken ...)
Slides in ZIP file: http://bit.ly/aTOZRt

10:15 Dan Barry
AIR CL8 Robots in the Real World (Dan Barry)
Cooperation trumps competition

11:30
AIR CL9 Reverse-Engineering the Brain 
William Risk

=============== PRE-presentation notes

Erez has introduced a new SUMMARY Etherpad:
http://su-etherpad.com/Pad-One-Liner:
Please contribute.

Slide marker in Etherpad:
- 
at the left margin, the hyphen above indicates a new slide.

If someone wants to put in the TITLE of the slide, like this
- Example Title
that would be even better.

[ref]
If you need a reference, use this marker.

If you missed it on Saturday, July 10, Gregg Maryniak gave a second full presentation on Energy starting from line 693 in this pad:
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul10-EES
He also gave a third full presentation to the Space team on Sunday, July 11:
http://su-etherpad.com/Jul11-GM

Aubrey de Grey spent some time in 583C talking about SENS on Sunday afternoon, 11 July:
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul11-AD

PRIOR AIR pads: 
Jun28 AIR CL1 Overview AI Robotics Jacobstein 
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun28-AIR-CL1-Overview-AI-Robotics-Jacobstein
Jul5 AIR 
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul5-AIR
Jul12 AIR 
http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul12-AIR

Spreadsheet of all core Etherpads:
http://bit.ly/GSP10library

Link to full SU Etherpad index:
http://singularityu.org/gsp10pads/

=============== End of PRE-presentation notes

Adam Cheyer
http://www.adam.cheyer.com/about.html

Siri founder
http://siri.com/
\"Siri understands what you say, accomplishes tasks for you and adapts to your preferences over time.
Today, Siri can help you find and plan things to do. You can ask Siri to find a romantic place for dinner, tell you what\u2019s playing at a local jazz club or get tickets to a movie for Saturday night.
Siri is young and, like a child taking its first steps, may be awkward at times. Siri may occasionally misunderstand things you ask it to do even within its range of understanding.
Nonetheless, Siri will improve quickly by getting to know you better and understanding a broader set of tasks. In fact, right now, Siri\u2019s learning how to handle reminders, flights stats and reference questions. Our vision is that, over time, you\u2019ll trust Siri to manage many personal details in your life - from recommending a wine you might enjoy to managing your to do list.\"
YouTube demo: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpjpVAB06O4

http://www.change.org/
\"the premier social network for positive social change\"

http://www.linkedin.com/companies/sandwalk-capital-hk-limited
Sandwalk Capital is an asset advisory firm specializing in the development and support of systematic short-term trading Investment Strategies in the most liquid markets. We focus on advanced pattern recognition systems using proprietary evolutionary algorithms and a robust testing and evaluation framework to uncover new sources of alpha. 
Slides: http://adam.cheyer.com/news.html

AI: What's Possible, What's Not, How Do We Move Forward?
9:09am Neil: [bio]
Siri recently sold to Apple
See free iPhone app (AI agent)
http://siri.com/

Author of more than 50 peer reviewed papers and 9 patents.

Adam: Really impressed. Kudos.
Updated version of talk from last year.
Questions: 
- The Future of AI
What's missing?
What works well? Where are the gaps?
Where are we today?
What are the best AI engines - limitations?
What is the best hope of success? low hanging fruit?
Where can we break through?
Predictions ...

- video from 1986 - Apple - about 10 minute video
Really sets the bar for an assistant.
How close are we.
We have the touch phones
We have the internet
Interacting with human
Awareness of temporal and social context
What is happening in a person's life, how does that fit
Phone has all contacts
We have continuous speech both in and out.
Here we see conversational assistants.

Artificial Intelligence\u2028\u2028What\u2019s Possible, What\u2019s Not, \u2028How Do We Move Forward?
Adam Cheyer\u2028\u2028Co-Founder, VP Engineering
Siri Inc
The Future of AI
AI: What are we trying to achieve?
What does it require?
Why is it hard?
What approaches are there?
What works well?
What doesn\u2019t?
Where is the state of the art today?
Commercial \u201cAI Engines\u201d
What are our best hopes of success?
What holds us back?
What does the future look like?
In 5 years.... In 15\u2026 In 25\u2026
AI: What are we trying to achieve?
Interaction with the Assistant
Touch screens and cinematic animation
Global network for info and collaboration
Awareness of temporal and social context
Continuous Speech in and out
Conversational Interface - assistant talks back
Delegation of tasks to the assistant
Assistant use of personal data

Is the Knowledge Navigator vision \u2028possible today?

Is the Knowledge Navigator vision \u2028possible today?
How Close are we Today?
Touch screens
Cinematic effects
Global network
Location and time awareness
Speech out, on demand
Continuous speech to text

Our iPhone has all these pieces.
Being able to communicate, delegate, etc.

You just can't talk to a search engine this way.

Peter Norvig was here.
John Battel wrote - a conversation [ref]

Why is it hard?
Each component technology is complex

Not enough to have dialog models, task models. You need to put it all together.
Each component is quite difficult.

\"Book 4 star restaurant in Boston\"
The word \"book\" is an object, a city ...
\"Star\" is a restaurant name ...
There is a restaurant called \"Restaurant\" ...
It explodes into a huge possibilities ... 
If you try to put the raw semantic interpretations into grammar.

Informal, incomplete grammar of English is larger than 1,700 pages\u2028\u2028
R. Quirk et al., A Comprehensive Grammar of the English Language, Longman, 1985.

What is the meaning, the intent. Especially when the words come in context.

Why is it hard?
\u201cCommon sense\u201d knowledge is fundamental to all components
Don\u2019t yet have sufficient representations for logical reasoning
*Huge* amounts of knowledge required, where does it come from?
How to manage the scale of the two?

\"Journal articles only\" set of results too large.
All of that knowledge would need to be encoded in a computer.
What is the right representation for putting in these facts and rules.
Huge amounts. How do you encode in a reasonable way.

Each component area uses different technologies, languages, methods yet \u2028deep integration is fundamentally required

You can't do this at a superficial level. DARPA spent $250 m. Funded stove-pipe research. Ontologists. Linguists. Planning specialists. Machine learning. CALO taught about movies? Make changes across entire set of technologies - words, rules, objects - very difficult to bring all the people together quickly.

- What approaches are there?
Simple heuristic rules plus enormous computation (search)
\u201cDeep\u201d knowledge approach
Typically relies on hand-coded grammars, ontologies, and rules
Statistical approach relying on learning probabilities from large corpora

Examples: Search will take Page Rank as one metric. Try to optimise on certain criteria. Look through entire set of data and evaluate on this criteria.

Can have very simple rules, but lots of power.

2/
Someone is going to code up knowledge. Autonomous vehicle. Not a search problem. Techniques were domain specific.

3/ 
Stat approaches. English and French - you just train. Run algorithms. Gee, when I say \"book\", then \"livre\" in French might be good.

-What works well?

All the approaches work well \u2013 for some problems

Massive search with simple heuristics
Deep Blue beats world chess champion
Genetic Finance beats benchmarks on stock prediction
Massive distributed learning. Like SETI at home. Pretty picture shows and it starts crunching. Rather than look for intelligent life, we look at the stock market. Run on millions of computers. Which indicators are most useful is a massive search problem. They get exponential in size.

Statistical training based on massive data
Speech recognition
Purely a data problem. Here are the words, here are the phonemes. Let's match them.
Machine translation
Google has orders of magnitude more data. Google vs Bing Translate - data helps.

Web search
Read: \u201cThe Unreasonable Effectiveness of Data\u201d [ref]
Norvig - algo that work OK with 10 million make leaps with order of magnitute more data.

\u201cDeep\u201d knowledge approach
Urban Challenge/Robotics 
Multiplayer Virtual Games
Someone has coded up rules.

- What doesn\u2019t?
But they have their limitations

Massive search with simple heuristics
Only certain problems fit into this category

Think again of the chess computer. Heuristic - 1 get the king, good position = better score.
In Genetic Finance, make money good, lose bad. Take transaction costs into account.
\"Bring up my rainforest slides\" will not fit this approach.

Statistical training based on massive data
Again, works only for certain problems due to availability of data and shallowness of scope

It is changing - we have video cameras on anything. Get data on how children learn language by hearing every single word they say. Question of getting data is a key lever on are we going to have really intelligent systems. Are we going to have systems to see and \"experience\" the world. In a sense.

\u201cDeep\u201d knowledge approach
Too brittle
Take text-to-speech. Chevaneski? [ref] Changed the world.
How would you pronouce these words? 
Took a dictionary - found phonemes.
Took neural network and trained words input to phonemes output.
Started with RANDOM output, system learned to feedback, get better.
Played over time, sped up, you could here the concepts get better and better.
Want to learn Finnish? Just give me another dictionary.
Who comes up with rules is the challenge.
How to get the data?

- State of the Art: AI Engines
Google \u2013 A \u201cSearch Engine\u201d
Amazing. 
Wolfram Alpha \u2013 A \u201cCompute Engine\u201d
http://www.wolframalpha.com/
Mathematica at the core
Huge, curated fact base

9:31 video
Brainchild of Stephen Wolfram [ref]
What he did was interesting and somewhat revolutionary.
Put a math engine at the core.
AI people said, \"What? It doesn't do logic?\"
[\"What is the weather in NYC? Current temp, and forecasts, conditions, historical temp data. Let's get even more specific. April 2, 1981. Great for research projects. Here is that pattern, daily breakdown of cloud cover. Type another city. Say Philly. On this day in 1981. So, it's thinking. Side by side comparisons. Very interesting. Do another search.
How much is 440 British pounds worth in US dollars .... over 10 years\"]
What Stephen has done is curated a massive set of data, formulas and rules. 
Stephen Wolfram has curated massive ammounts of data, rules, formulas across all areas of science, wolfram alpha, a new type of engine that can answer new kinds of questions
Run in parallel across
Chem
Bio
Astrophysics
He says search engines only retrieve what is known. This can return answers to questions that have never been posed before.
He has 10,000 machines running Mathematica in parallel. 
Just type \"6\" and you get all sorts of disconnected facts.
April 2, gives you the number of days ago, in parallel. These different math engines.
Very interesting system.
Who enters this data? He wants precision to the Nth decimal point.
The idea of Wikipedia is abhorrent to him.
He has developed tools to manage the quality of the data - the actual quality is one of the most important achievements. It will advance at the speed he can get his experts to curate that data.

True Knowledge \u2013 An \u201cInference Engine\u201d
http://www.trueknowledge.com/
Chains inferences together, reasons about time
Collaborative knowledge entry for enhancing KB

You can ask who was President when Barack Obama was a teenager? 
First who is Barack Obama.
Answer - actually 4 Presidents during his teen years.
This is collaborative. 
You could hire guys.
This is trying to create an application - if it doesn't know, it asks, \"Do you know answer?\"
[video \"Big problem - computers don't understand the content of websites. Just keywords ... \"Is Jennifer Lopez single?\" Represent knowledge in a format that computers can understand. Can be used just like a search engine. When you type in a question this time, you get a perfect in-line response. Disambiguated meaning of \"single\".]
skipping ahead
[\"Users can can contribute templates. Enter facts in plain text.\"]
They are typing where was Jennifer Lopez born
[\"Can add knowledge. Confirmation screens.\"]
By NYC - did you mean New York, New York?
Building an end user app, adding data is very important to get to the scale.
Let me show 2 more, then pause for questions.

IBM\u2019s Deep QA \u2013 An \u201cEntity Retrieval Engine\u201d

[Watson video from IBM \"It's going to change how we interact with information\"
What is empricism.
Pose question in natural language. An information seeking tool to make sure you get what you want. I don't have one of those.
A human standing there with carbon and water.
The computer standing there with silicon and disk.

Questions are tricky.
I think we've gone from impressed to blown away.
Reality is, being able to win a game does not mean you have conquered the language understanding task.
Worst is when WATSON crashes.
Or just starts making mistakes ... NO. \"HUMANS - Woo!\"
Push technology as hard as we possibly can.
What can we really do. It is limitless what we could apply this to.
[YouTube ref IBM and the Jeopardy Challenge]
http://www.research.ibm.com/deepqa/

Statistical retrieval of concepts/entities

Wolfram - clean
True K - inference
IBM - words/entities

Siri Virtual Personal Assistant \u2013 A \u201cDo Engine\u201d
Reasons about capabilities of external services
Conversational (spoken) interaction, with context
Personalized: learns and applies info about user

Siri, my own company, a \"do\" engine.
Does conversation - takes context. Next night. Action movies. No, closer to my house.
Reasons about capabilties of other services - basically web services.
User interface on iPod.
Number of services - analyzing source or sources to provide best answer.
Siri - now that TK and Wolfram - may send to those APIs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Application_programming_interface

[Siri video]
\"I can show romantic place. Send it to a friend. If you know place you want, ask for reservation directly. Siri contacts OpenTable to see what is available. Movie? Avatar in 3D IMAX? Siri checks within the context of my dinner plans. See trailer, read plot, map theatres, get tickets from within Siri. 

Ask open questions. \"What is happening this weekend around here?\"
Siri knows where I am because of the phone.
You interact with a dialog.
Check a different location \"How about SF?\"
Conversation about events carries over.
Lot of theatre up there - Wicked still showing.

\"Take me drunk. I'm home\"
Right thing to do is call me a cab]
9:51 [applause]
All available for free. Competitors, but I show them to you because they are great.
You can kind of see the flaws and the good parts.

Architecture connects services to \u2028what people do, where they are.

Knowledge
Data
Language

What are our best hopes of success?
Integrating many AI components into single system
Despite CALO. It is going to be a little bit of a while before they integrate.
With Siri, let the best flowers bloom

Learning from Massive Data
Web, but soon all books, music, tv/video, \u2026
We need more.

Learning from Massive Usage
Google has advantage over Siri. We went from 0 to modest number.
Where do they click. How do they use system.

The internet population is growing at enormous rate

Learning from Active Teaching & Collaborative Intelligence
Wikipedia approach vs Wolfram Alpha

Hybrid probabilistic/logical approaches
WA, TK, great on symbolic.
Google great at probablistic
Deep QA from IBM combining a bit
SIRI a bit
need to improve dramatically

Or\u2026 something completely different 
Allen institute for brain science?
slicing up brain. Trying to build a map. Reverse engineer.

- What holds us back?
Software 
Brittle/fragile
\u201cAnti-Moore\u2019s Law\u201d \u2013 gets slower
Ex: boot \uf0e0\uf020MS Word
In 1988, ran MS Word on 33 MHz. Windows started faster for me then.
Just a cautionary tale.
Software - anti-Moore's law

Human understanding moves slowly
Engelbart: co-evolution of technology and human understanding/adoption
In 1968 he did demo so far ahead of time
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mother_of_All_Demos
read/write internet with video conferencing - fade in voice
wireless
when you clicked on link - express how you wanted to see link
Ideas on ideas. In a few years it will be done.
Still taking people a long time to get their heads around it.
Idea of mouse took off
Whole idea of links ...
1998 - I was watching and internet was just taking off.
Ex: collective intelligence progress\u2026

- AI in the future: 5 Years\u2026
Everyone will have a Siri-like assistant and will rely on it increasingly for 
mobile tasks
Maybe shorter time. Now acquired by Apple.
internet tasks (e.g. travel, e-commerce)
communication tasks
entertainment/attention
- AI in the future: 15 Years\u2026
Common sense knowledge models and reasoning components begin to be more feasible \u2013 systems seem \u201csmarter\u201d, more general, are less brittle, make less stupid mistakes
Contributions from the masses
Scale issues in probabilistic/logic start to resolve

- AI in the future: 25 Years\u2026
Too far ahead. That is for you guys.

- Poll Question
Robocup goal successful?
By mid-21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win the soccer game, complying with the official rule of the FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup. [ref]
[video Robocup 2010 Best Humanoid - YouTube video]

Adam Cheyer
adam@siri.com

Siri available for free \u2028in the Apple App Store

Q: Siri - on Blackberry?

Can't tell you.

Q: Bryce: In the search engine that let's you make suggestions. More Wikipedia based model. Does it rank answers? If \"do you know where Jennifer Lopez was born\" - OK to discard data entries/but not these?

TK has conflict resolution. If a human enters fact and it has logical conflict, it will warn you. J Lopez born in 1892 - but married in 19 something - does not compute. Will show you inference chain. Quite a system to maintain consistency.

Q2: How much thought geiven to combining human intelligence with ...

Amazon Turk. Turn humans into robots. Post tasks too hard for computers. Army of humans paid to do certain tasks. Identify face in this picture. Every time you do it you get money. Get human assistants.

In Siri, we don't have people in India. Fully automated. Some companies do use mixed solution and have some success.

Q2 followup: Could you use human intervention to improve AI.

If it is ground truth, that is data that machine learning can use -- if you get enough of it.

Connor: K Navigator video inspiring.
When can you ask Siri financial questions?
Ask, \"How can I make lots of money?\"

I'd say Siri will be able to answer that once we get a trusted source.
It will delegate.
Yahoo answers, \"Should I leave my girlfriend?\"
Asking about money - WA will give list of richest people in the world and you'll see you are not in it.

Q: Eric/Italy: In past few weeks, is there some kind of AI that is already operating that we don't recognize. Financial system beyond our control?

So, for me, AI is by definition. As soon as it works and you take it for granted, then it is not AI.
Is AI working that we don't understand - Google maps - just take it for granted.
When you talk about finance. Systems traded entirely by computer. Competing against humans and doing quite well. Blazingly fast.
Subverting the world? I don't think so.

Q: Is Siri tied to resources, conversationally. AGI will be a compilation of a bunch of narrow AI?

Probably the question. I don't have the answer. My approach to AGI is to take the best, the first, as many reasoning systems as you can and try to learn which are useful for which tasks. At a fundamental level that may be the way the brain works.
In Watson, they have reasoners.
Surprised how hard Jeopardy questions are.
Eddie Albert Camu? 
Watson got it correct. How to coallesce and compound answers.
Reason about the different sources.
They way I know to go about it. Have very specific reasoners - 
Open Table would be highest rated, but
All Menus would know if lasagna is on menu tonight.
May be completely different, more holistics approaches.

Q: Emiliano. What other areas are interesting?

Third company. Change.org. Help solve world's problems. A lot of what you guys are about.
AI for mediating perspectives.
Look at global problems.
Solve crime, proverty - no one person will have \"the\" idea. A collaborative process.
A system that is realtively neutral. One that can document and do conflict resolution.
Here are inconsistencies.
Transcribe, annotate across multiparty discussions.
Bring in best data.
Make it available.
Make it fit into this shape.
How do we as humanity move forward.
A computer aided assistant could be very helpful.

Neil: Let's give Adam a big hand.
5 min break
10:11
Markov NY Times article on robot teachers.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/11/science/11robots.html?_r=1

10:19
Neil: Dan Barry - teacher of collaboration and communication.
[slide of geese in V formation]
Dan: So. Robot lecture. Focus on collaboration.
Last time adaptation.
The last time I talked to you it was about adaptation, but before that you need collaboration
Take home message: \"Cooperation trumps competition\"
How could that be? Cooperation is part of the definition of life.
Is it competition that wins out in the primordial soup? No, there is cooperation of molecules that get together, get organized.
Eventually you get lipids, then a cell ... life.

In order to get multicell organism again you need cooperation between cells.
Birds flying in a V is an example of cooperation within a species. Other examples: bees, ants, lions, wolves, naked mole rats (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naked_mole_rat)

Penguins, Ants, Dolphins

Interspecies cooperation = bacteria
10 times bacterial cells than body cells
100 times more DNA in bacteria than in our cells
Appendix is a way for the bacteria to survive and reboot your body's bacteria levels in the event your bacteria gets wiped out
Prisoner's Dilemma http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoners_dilemma
You and your buddy get busted and then separated
1. If one rats the other out, person who rats gets reward, person who gets ratted on gets severly punished
2. If neither rats than both get out
3. If both rat than get slightly punished

Tit-for-Tat
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tit_for_tat

New strategy beats tit-for-tat. 
Team had 60 entries, some always cooperated, some never cooperated.
Half were best players. Other half were worst. If you are willing to sacrifice. What you see in Tour de France (bicycle race).
Douglas Hofstadter http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Hofstadter
suggests \"super rational\" approach - with the thought that since both players are rational and know the other player is rational they will both cooperate with eachother

80-20 rule http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle
Take it or leave it, take 50?
How many people vote yes. How many no. Some people don't vote.
How about 60/40? Have no's now. 10-20%.
Suppose person says, going to take $100. 
$70/$30.
$80/$20
$90/$10 yes
Where did half say yes? At 80/20. 
Your choice is to either get $20 or nothing.
In this test, the other guy doesn't exist. I was pretending. You were turning down $10. Isn't that interesting.
If we think the other guy is too greedy we will hurt ourselves to punish the other guy.
Even at $99/$1 - do you want a dollar or not? That was the question.
Almost everybody says, hell no.
Interesting.

One thing I wanted to mention. Individual winning tends to make you happy. But team winning makes you happy for a longer time.

Which is more satisfying; Playing longer on a team that ultimately loses OR play by yourself and win championship.
About half/half.
What was the best thing about space flight?
- seeing Earth
- flying, feeling like magic
- by third flight - best thing was being on team - having those friends for the rest of your life.

Robot applications.
cooperation - mutual benefit. Robots will want something out of the interaction.
Like with dogs. Other animals.
Video which demonstrates people are ready to coorperate with robots.
Tween bots. All robot does is go in a straight line. Asks, via sign, \"Help me\"
It is cute and asks for help.
\"I love this guy. He followed, trailing. Before starting to help.
Day I did this was really really hot. Tires got hot and came off. These guys figured out Sam was missing the tread. Talked about it for some time. Discovered tread was right there. Put tire back in order and sent him on his way. One of the things I found amazing. Never know how deep the level of engagement will go. This girl was amazing. Actually talking to herself\"

This robot - 30 different people help it. People bonded with this trivial robot.
There we are, helping this robot. People so happy to be helping this robot.
Also 
Showed you swarm. 
Cooperate to get tasks done to

Help me find applications where it is a two way street where robots and humans help each other.

EXAMPLES OF HUMAN/ROBOT COOPERATION
Use web or talk together.
1. The Matrix
2. Automatic vacuum cleaners (not roomba) - vacuum cleaners get plugged into walls and guided by humans, cooperate with humans in cleaning
3. Research robots - can collect data that the human can then analyze, humans have to set up the parameters to research
4. Blood cell robots - fighting disease or releasing oxygen inside human while human provides energy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respirocyte
Matt: cells to transport oxygen. Blood would provide energy.
Dan: Just the sort of thing. Robots in your bloodstream. You provide energy for them to live. A symbiosis. Nice concrete example. That's the kind of thing I'm looking for.
5. Exploration robots
Emiliano: send out, report back
Dan: What have you done for robot? That's a one way street.
6. Rechargable robotic limbs that need repairs
7. Ant construction robots using swarm behavior to build structures
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ant_robotics
8. Robocars acting together
9. Intelligent homes and cars that work with humans to maintain optimal and efficient energy usage and overall mutual existence
10. Captcha http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAPTCHA - helps the computer to understand \"English\" - gives humans secure login
Matt: You type in mixed up words. AI starts to recognize more complex patterns. It helps with security solution.
11. SETI at Home http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SETI#SETI.40home - swarm of robots
12. Davinci robot, operated by humans, gives doctors more precision and better view
13. Army bomb defuser bots, predator drones
14. Symbiotic relationship between \"walking stick\" robot and blind individual. The robot gains body heat for energy and the human gains \"sight.\"
15. Self-winding watch.
16. Human with internal robot -- both have to agree on actions.
17. Learning or helping
18. hiking helper -- we give it learning, maintenance, exposure to new environments; it gives us carrying help.

11:09 wrap up.
: Robots playing a game. Feedback - robots entertain people.
Dan: What do robots get? 
Play
Dan: OK if robots get reward. What do robots want? They only want what we told them we want.
People in park not helping robot but person who invented the robot.
From the individual's point of view, they were helping the robot.
Through your whole life, parents tell you to go to medical school. You finally get a prof to give you a letter of recommendation to med school. Is that prof helping you or your parents?

Bryce: Middle sibling. An 8 yr old and a 4 yr old. The 8 yr old teaches the robot. For the 4 yr old, the robot can take on a teaching role. Learning from and doing the teaching.
Dan: Robot gets to be loved. I think that is a motivation. We are starting to get to program emotions. Middle sibling helps with sibling rivalry.

Emiliano: Marketplaces where you can outsource program tasks. Choose which tasks. Bots which can outsource to humans the improvements

\\\\\\\\
[sorry pad died]
Better sensors. Exoskeleton. Win world cup. Learn mobility/agility.
Dan: Sport robot that is the kind of thing I was looking for.
You want robot to win as a roboticist. They become more agile, develop better balance.
With sense of self, being able to move would be valuable.
Owners and players. In sport, you train players.

Maggie: Robot to assist a blind person. Robot would get energy from body heat.
Human would get better mobility.
Dan: Seeing eye dog
Maggie: Walking stick
Dan: Not sure body heat is enough. But you are touching on wearable clothing - wrapped around you, powered.
Wearable robotics that enhance your function. I like it.
Something about the seeing eye robot that has to do with independence.
Roles we are assigning are very high level functions.
Not clear robots would care about these things.
Hard exercise to REALLY effect the goals of a robot.

Candice: How do you know it has emotions and not just programmed to look like it does?
Dan: How do I know you have emotion? It's a classic philosophical argument. Does a fly have emotions? No. A cat? Absolutely. Where do you draw the line.
Will be exact same thing in pragramming.
Not sure we ever will be able to draw the line.
The programs we have now, doesn't have emotiton, draw a line in the animal kingdom when an animal has an emotion and know that and I'll let you know where the line is in understanding robot emotions. 

Candice: We never developed outside our species.
Dan: Fair enough. May be very difficult for us to draw the line.
End with story.
Judge life by winning. Not about your accomplishments. About other people in your life.
If you successfully find a true love, your life will be amazing.

Seattle Special Olympics, Fred Rogers:
For the 100 yd dash, 9 contestants lined up
at sound of gun, they took off.
not long afterward a little boy, fell to the ground hurt his knee and started to cry
other 8 heard him crying, turned around. Every one ran back to him.
one little girl iwth down syndrome bent down to kiss his knee and said
\"This will make it better\"
The all linked arms and 
All finished race at the same time.
Everyone stood up and cheered for a long long time.
What really matters is helping others win.
11:25 [applause]

Neil: Restart at 11:35 for Bill from IBM

Dan: How to breed chickens. Over 6 generations of picking best INDIVIDUAL layers, chickens plucked one another to death. Need to identify CLUTCH of chickens that produce the most eggs.
[Actually, \"clutch\" refers to the group of eggs: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken ]

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
AIR CL9 Reverse-Engineering the Brain 
William Risk
published over 15 patents
- Cognitive Computing via Synaptronics and Supercomputing
Thank you.
Speaking on behalf of colleagues at IBM Almaden.
Setting is a very beautiful one.
This work includes contributions of work by colleagues around the world.
More recently ccollaboration with DARPA.

- Your (very) personal computer
Here is the spec sheet.
Weight - 1.5 kg
Volume 1.3L
Power ~ 20W
Processors: 10^11
Interconnects 10^15
\"Wiring\" ~150 km
Good at taking inputs and integrating into a coherent view.
We've been working on building computers to do something like this.
Make sense about how to act in noisy environment.

- Dual Objectives
Facilitate discovery
Glean from neuroscience 

- Intersection of Neuroscience / Supercomputing / Nanotechnology C2S2
- Inflection Point 1: Neuroscience has matured
- Nobel Prizes in Nerve Signaling
Nice page [ref]
nobel_prizes ...
- Classic Neuroscience Textbook. 1400 pages [ref]
Erik Kandel, most often used text book (Principles of Neural Science)
- Neurons ~10,000 inputs
Dendrites, Soma, Axon
~ 10,000 outputs

On scale of 10s to 100s of microns in size.
Complex \"arbor\" of connections.

- What Neurons Do
Membrane reaches threshold, emits spike
- Communication between Neurons
via synapses
\"pre and post\" synaptic neurons
- Brain Scaling
16 m Neurons in mouse, 20 b Neurons in Human
- One way flow - 20 - 40 nM gap at synapse. From Graham Johnson.
Conductance strength - learning takes place. Memory.
Similar to electrical resistor.
How are memories stored? Lots of theories.
- Spike Timing Dependent Plasticity (STDP)
If neuron 1 spikes and then a short time later 2 spikes, there is likely an influence.
If 2 fires first, then 1 fires, unlikely there was an influence.
Increase / decrease conductance.

- Structure of Brain.
Over a century of neuroscience.
Gray Matter - 2-4 mm thick.
Zoom in, find dense packing of neurons.
White matter, just axons.
So, local and longer range connections.

- Cortical Organization: Layers
Typically 6.
Specialized for different functions.
Receiving,
Sending to other areas

- Layers in the Cat Cortex
Very careful tracing of cat cortex
Some lateral organization.
Cortex is not just in layers, but in columns. Particular functions. 
Larger regions

- Regions
Visual
Audition
Motor functions
etc.

cortex is a 2 dimensional object, or maybe 2 plus epsilon.
Covers about 4 sheets of notebook paper side by side.
- Monkey Cortical Atlas
Paxinos Huang Toga 2000
[nice panning image]

What is local, what is long range, important to have map of what parts do and what is wired together.

- Interconnections Between Regions.
Felleman & Van Essen
Very tedious disections.
More modern techniques:
- Tracing White Mater Pathways
Difusion Tensor Imaging.
The way water molecules diffuse in the brain.
Tells you - roughly - which way axons are going.
Many sets of axons may account for water flow - daunting challenge to sorting challenge to sort out signals.
Try to analyze maps on supercomputers.
\"Projectome\"

- Cortical modeling
Layers / columns / regions / connections
Can create mathematical model.

- Inflection point 2 - supercomputing meets the brain.
- Simulation of 512 neurons, 1956
TESTS ON A CELL ASSEMBLY ...
- Computers have advanced. Blue Gene/P
Worth asking: what would it take to model mammalian brain?
Memory / Computation / Communication (Is there an intersection of what is required to do and whats available. )
- Mouse / Cat / Human
N 2x8x10^6 2x3.8x10^8 2x10x10^9

Computation and memory. TF to PF in computing power
TB to PB of memory

Super computers are up to that challenge.
IBM uses 150,000 CPUs to give 500 TF, 144 TB of memory.

- BlueGene Meets Brain.
On /L machine.
Both model and machine running it.
1% of human cortex.
Cat cortext /P machine. This simulation May 2009. 10 trillion synapses.

- Inevitable?
500 fastest supercomputers.
Blue is #1. Green line is SUM of their capabilities.

Full human approximately within a decade.

Machine will be huge, consume enormous amount of power. Only run models.
What about something you could run in a backpack?

- Inflection point 3: Nanotechnology meets Brain

Look at power
Rat 50 mW, Human 20 @
Space 6 cm^2 2,400 cm^2

Novel non-von Neumann Architectures are necessary.

Data from Todd Hylton
~ 10^10 synapses/cm^2 vs 10^10 intersection/cm^2 in 100 nm crossbar

~ 10^6 neurons/cm^2 vs ~5x10^8 transistors

long range axons vs ~ 30 Gbit throughput

- Electronic implementations of synapses
One wire as axon. One wire as dendrite.
If Pre fires first, Post fires second, increase conductance.
Reverse order, decrease.

Front end of the line processes.
CMOS Neuron Sheet 
overlaid with Nanotech Synapse crossbar

- Ultimate Goal
do what the brain does.
Integrate the inputs. Hopefully more sophisticated than this [tiny brain in 

- Research Sponsor - DARPA
SyNAPSE: Systems of Neuromorphic Adaptive Palstic Scalable Electronics
got to work with great partners

David H: Crossbar architecture. What are the technologies there. Materials basis? 

One of the focuses of DARPA project - see if size/density SDP can be achieved.
Generally, physical systems where conductance can be changed on timing. Has been a key focus of the program. Several promising candidates.

David R: Each neuron has 10,000 synapses. What happens to rest of synapses?

Neuroscientists will give very detailed answer. Different mechanisms. Really fascinating. People have tried to capture that level of detail. 
Another approach - more abstract. Neurons act kind of like slide - in/out - integrate and fire model.
Other part of question -are synapses independent. Better for neuroscientist. Each one may change conductance depeding on pre/post connections.

Emiliano: What happens if Penrose is right?

It is not our objective to prove it right/wrong. Not so much interested in neuroscience, but to apply to model which can be instantiated in electronics.
Architecture/ model that works.

Sam/AU: Modeled cat brain. How functional?

Movie shows that. Supercomputing sims employ a model Account for different regions of cortex. Provide input to one layer - a 2D image, like a triangle - watch how excitations are propagated. Output of these simulations is a movie.
cortex is a 2D object.
Propagation to other areas of cortex.
Challenge to abstract from huge amounts of data.
Challenge to display these movies.
Might have something with one pixel for each neuron. One screen can nearly do that.
Supercomputing center has
250 million pixel wall.
See levels of detail we could not see previously.

Q: Integrate and fire seems simplistic. Molecular coding. Not like a transistor. Also above that level - synchronization/feedback. We're not good at designing these. We building yet another backprop network or something bigger?

Constructing from what is known about the brain. How much detail do you need?
Some very faithfully describe.
Higher level uses integrate and fire - which may be too simplistic.
May just be too simplistic to capture biochem.
May be ok for function.
We are not locked into integrate and fire.
We can try different models.
Important question. Our aim is with as generalized, abstracted model as possible, find how spikes work.

Emiliano: You use simulation/ subsystem. If we are in a position to sim enough neurons, what would prevent us from replacing subsystems?

The sim effort has not only scaled up neurons, but level/complexity it is trying to describe.
Early models were of columns. Layers of connectivity.
Not white matter. Now we're getting to that.
Progress is trying to get closer to human scale, but also more realistic on communication pathways.
Understanding the brain as a network.
Can you use network theory. Long / short connections.

David R: Why interest in trying to shrink it down? Does size really matter? 

Mainly the interest is to provide something portable. Serve as cognitive processor of a robot.
Lot of use cases where, for example, doctor with sensors to smell, measure patient.
Ubiquitous.
Not just size and weight, but power consumption.
If super computers keep scaling the way they do, you'll need a nuclear power plant for each one.

Thank you.
12:16 [applause]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dharmendra_Modha

Dharmendra S Modha's Cognitive Computing Blog
\"to engineer the mind by reverse engineering the brain\"
http://www.modha.org/

Salim: Packed week. Last week of core lectures. Suck as much from faculty as possible.
Lunch time, guest speakers. Special guest - Kaufman - Fishbank at 1:30 at 583C. Talk on entrepreneurship - testing new models.
Business is new model.
What works where.
An amazing talk.
This evening Jon short session.
Try to eat lots of nutrients, vitamins.
See you in an hour.

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Link to backchan.nl for questions:
http://singularity.backchan.nl/meetings/view/165 First speaker
http://singularity.backchan.nl/meetings/view/166 Second speaker
http://singularity.backchan.nl/meetings/view/167 Third speaker

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"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Aug4-Silicon-Valley-Entrepreneurship
"Wed, August 4, 9 am - 12 noon

Silicon Valley Entrepreneurship Models and Frameworks: 
Mapping the Territory 
FEE 
B.583c Atrium 

David Rose
Tom Byers
Slides: http://bit.ly/ahXIDZ

Aaron Kemmer
Alaeddine Mokri
x Alex
Alison Lewis
Anders Hvid
Ankur Jain

x Bill Bing
Chiara Giovenzana
Chiara Turelli
Connor Dickie
David Roberts
-
David Wyler
Dhaval Chadha
Dmitriy Tseliakhovich
Emem Andrew
x Erez Livneh

x Eric Ezechieli
Erika Anderson
Eugenie Rives
Everson Lopes
Francesco Galietti
-
Gary Gautier
Hind Ahmed
Jason Dunn
Javier Mares
John Graves

Jorge Fernandez
Juan Martinez-Barea
Julian Ugarte
Kausar Samli
Luca Escoffier
-
Mercy Njima
Michael Jensen
Miguel Oroz
Nolene Naidu
Raycho Raychev

Robertq Denning
Ronen Amit
Santiago Bilinkis
Sasah Grujicic
Steve Cronin
-
Tigist Ashenaffi
x Tony Lyu
Tyler Kratz
Vincent Daranyi
Zain Jaffer

45 Students

David Rose:
Three very different subjects.
- The Essence of Entrepreneurship

Tina Seelig - [most]
Do earlier.
More next 2 days about entrepreneurship.
How many are? [100%]

What the hell is entrepreneurship.
Tom Beyers - runs e program at Stanford
Written book.
Silicon Valley eco-system.
How firms form here.
California
Thursday - detail of finance.
Tom will touch today
VCs touched last night.
Angel
Super Angel
Friends and family
What you are looking for.
Elevator pitch
4 hour work week author.

Tim
There are those of us who have 400 hour workweek.
Opposite end of cages in a zoo.
Look at Tim - nice work if you can get it.
Tim is a good speaker.
Interesting stuff to say.

This morning. What is the essence of being an e
What does it mean to you?
You are what?

Eric: Start with one idea. Transform idea into results.

Bing: See opportunity where others see rick.

: Willing to take risk
: Good salesman - 
Not in official definition - does require other people to buy
product or vision.

What does the dictionary say?
We will deconstruct definition.
A person who -
stop right there. A person. 
Companies have intrapreneurs.
Comes down to a very personal thing.
Each of you is a person
Very hard to codify.
Hear from Tina how to jumpstart innovation.
From corporate basis - from Tim
All progress depends on the unreasonable man.

\"organizes and operates\"
You start it.
Could be someone else's idea.
Not innovation. Organizing.
Difference between inventor and entrepreneur.
Lots of people, particularly academics - not e. Ideas will never get out of lab.
Earlier in the stage - how do you match idea with someone who can make something out of it.
If you just organize and run away - a founder.
To be an entrepreneur you need to override the market,
actually taking action. Run a business.
Relatively few entrepreneurs start and run through. 
Rare to continue to run for a long time.
Alex: Bought themselves a job.

John Kastner - 
Princeton Review.
Not an entrepreneur - was in incubator - second company starting makes you an e.
Latest doing really cool stuff. Taking education - going on-line
Outsourced, on-line for high end.
2tor
http://2tor.com/
Providing on-line systems for universities.
Raised $20 m.
Typically, the way e works. Vs Small Bus person.
typically, like peanuts - once you start one you are in the flow.
People in this class have started 30.
Several have done 2 or more.
Trick - having started it, to get it going.
Like car. Start it, drive it, then hire professional chauffeur.

\"a business or businesses\"
Social - concept of social entrepreneurship - essentially a business.
Overrides the market.
Play by different rules.
Create a business. Or businesses. You tend to be serial e.
\"taking on greater than normal\"
Any e here not \"greater than normal\" going outside the system
lack of sleep
\"financial risks to do so\"
Taking on greater than normal financial risk to start organize and operate.
Business, starting, personal. 
That's what you guys are.

- Adam Smith
Talk now about that in overall context 
Wealth of Nations
\"By pursuing his own interest [the individual] frequently promotes that of the society more effectually than when he intends to promote it.\"

I'm a dyed in the wool liberal. Also a good capitalist.
People who do social things look down nose at business people.
Absolutely not antithetical.
Question of sustainability - keynote of last 3 days
Garvin - not just economic, but social sustainability.
Business - if social, better work economically - or it will fail.

You can do something rational that makes sense.
BUT if you say, \"I'm going to do something great for the world\"
You won't survive.

- Joseph Schumpeter
Father of entrepreneurship and innovation
Coined the term \"creative destruction\"
across markets and industries
Only by destroying the old stuff do you create new stuff.
Destruction and renewal.
Jingle networks. 411 books.
Directory assistance calls.
People have phones.
You need to find someone else's number
First operators.
Then phone books.
Then let operator check books.
People would do that.
Lots of people calling, so phone companies started calling.
Then mobile phones came along.
From mobile phone - what changed?
When first mobile phones came out -
: You don't want to write it down
: You don't have access to phone book
A choice.
Everybody had phonebooks. 
Directory assistance is a luxury -> necessity.
You don't have option to look in phonebook.
Call 411 = but now phone company has monopoly.
You need a number or you can't call anybody.
They have got you over a barrel.
Have to have it.
They have unlimited margin.
Directory assistance - charged $2 per call.
Very large percentage of revenues
98% margin
So, how to destroy this business?
Give same answer for free (with ad)
Directory assistance via computer - 
almost all voice recognition.
Technology shrunk the cost.
Put at end of free 800 number. Play ad.
Get paid for the ad, and since I know what you
are looking for, I can give you a targeted ad.
Redirect you - 
UNOs is having a special - press * to be connected.
Very important - connect at time and place of purchase.
For customer - pay $2. OR FREE with ad.
They took 5 - 10 % within 6 months of launch.
They cut out $1.90 of the whole world.
Changed whole market.
Still legacy market.
But that is the kind of creative destruction we are talking about here.

- Entrepreneurial skills
Things you need, or need to get
People
You can create your own magazine, but
if you are going to have any scale - you need to have people
skills. Some so brilliant, can be total assholes. Others 
need to be able to convince
Management

Production
Know how to do widget. Difficult to organize and operate if
you don't know what you are doing.

Operations
This takes a lot of work. Tiny fiddling pieces. Many we don't 
like to do. Essential part of life.

Money (Financial Management)

Sales
Yeah. Sales are critical. More and more pitches with IP, widget,
but can't convince anybody to do this.
To show how critical sales are - 
Angelsoft
Collaboration, etc.
We went to Angel groups - buy-in basis.
$100 per plan. 100 plans, pay $10K.
So we'll automatically bill you.
\"PAY for software\"
So I said, OK. What will we do.
When entrepreneurs who want to get in front of you,
we'll change e.
\"CHARGE e?\"
OK, you won't pay. You won't let us charge the guys who would pay.
What about sponsors?
When e apply, we'll charge the sponsors.
\"CHARGE them! The buy our dinners.\"
Will it save money. Something you want and need.
We've got that done.
So ...
OK fine. We've got a bigger fish we are frying.
We'll give you this for free.
\"We can't take it for free\"
You won't???
Does it do exactly what you want?
Why won't you take it free.
So, you won't make money.
Angel investors are psychotic people.
Crazy squared.
OK. Sales is it. 4 person team.
Take this software, PLEASE.
Chase them into bathrooms, begging them to take it free.
Sales is really critical.

Financing.
How do you get cash in the first place.
Will talk in detail Thursday.
Part salesmanship
Part communications - surprising number meet criteria - but they are not necessarily traditional finance CFO, but they are entrepreneurs, but not great technically.

- What investors look for

Zain: Started co. Felt they undervalued business - how do you value future sales.

Quick answer - risk basis. Risk element is wildly underestimated by entrepreneurs.
Unlikely you will come near projections.
I say, either guarantee me or accept my risk projections.

- Integrity, Passion, Experience, Knowledge, Skill, Leadership, Commitment (you better not walk away), Vision, Realism, Coachability (listen and take advice)

Things we know about e.
- Starting is easy. Running is hard
- Takes a lot of money
- All get seeded
- Flow
- achieve goals
- most succeed.

ALL WRONG
Once you get it going, becomes easier.
Operating exec - 2/3 years.
Google guys brought in Eric Schmidt.
Those guys could not have started it.
Guys who started are not good day-to-day managers.

First internet company.
In second iteration, multinational - headed to Asia.
No background in multinational operations.
Went out to find CEO.
Asked headhunter.
Experience in mobile arena.
Who?
Guy at IBM. #3 guy. Raised - IBM.
Got this guy. He comes in. Leaves 17 year career.
700 people reporting to him.
Fascinating to see him run this. Did things I never would have thought.
Could Mark have started this? No.
He had big co. operating skills. Not CTO of Symantec.
Ever going to start a business - completely different skill set.

In terms of taking money for starting business.
Costs are dropping like a rock.
IT enabled - not heavy duty - web services. 
Angel investors would love to fund every business, but they don't.
Only 2-3%. 97% will have to find money somewhere else.
VCs only fund 1 in 400 businesses. That is the exception rather than the rule. Tiny tiny tiny percentage.
Last year - founded 1000.
600 000 started last year.
You see something new, really risky.
Not getting appropriate valuation based 
Not one company has come within a country mile of hitting
projections.
If you perceive how risky it really is, we'd all be in a different business.

Zain:
We don't cut down what you are doing.
Based on what I know, what might you actually get.
I have idea what numbers really are.

Anders: Top 4% that wins or worst?

In reality, investors - ultra-capitalist, blog posts.
They are not evil. Not out to screw you. Not stupid.
If you were a VC, what would you do.
Best VCs have both 
Do they always get it right? Many have lost money.
Made best guesses they could.
Investing in top 1/4 of 1%. Best efforts on everything, still blew it.
If God were to rank every company out there.

Did ones that got funded fall in the top 10%? Probably.
There is luck.
Circumstance.
Things happen.
Best CEO, then black swan event.
Can't canonically rank that.

Anders: From yesterday and Copenhagen.
Bootstrapping gets to be way.

VC is almost the last resort. Anyone who starts expecting VC.
If you are a bootstrap business - Odds are against you as a VC-backed business..
Functional business becomes within shooting distance of VC funding.
In right set of seats.

IF you can be bootstrapped - tight on cash - viable.
Still have business that can be success, get funded.

Scott Shane - 
Several books.
Debunks
Illusions of E
Why not the case. Very bright guy.
Don't disagree on facts.
Tends to take same facts.
\"we think we are e but we are small bus types\"
Vision: H Ford, Dean Kamen - only small % like you.
you are not going to open a local waffle house franchise.
That is not an e
Scott - takes \"Fool's Gold\" who are Angels 
1/4 m people in america - not all David Rose types.
They have met a guy a cocktail party ...
There is increasing core of professional angels.
Have portfolio theory
You heard from Rob about decentralization of capital.
atomization 
Or disintermediation
Or decentralization
Taking central and spreading into parts.
100 000s of investors out there.
Where do e come from?
Are we all nascent e?
Is there a difference?
- Thomas Harrison
Book: instinct
Tapping Your E DNA to Achieve Your Business Goal.
One trait -you don't learn from your mistakes - that is the gene for e
How many people blithely go charging ahead despite NO.

- John Gartner. John Hopkins
Religion and psychiatry. Can you go back to the record and say
was this god given voice or were they just nuts.
Joan of Arc - just Schizophrenic
Populations had interesting traits in common.
Bill Gross of Idea lab - just lost $2 bn why smiling.
Hmmm. Maybe another crazy group.
Went back to psychiatric manuals - anything to account for this?
Test hypothesis. Sent around a survey to dozen or so.
On scale of 1 - 5
- filled with energy
- flooded with ideas
- driven
- wildly grand ambitions
- little sleep
- feel brilliant
- can be euphoric
- irritated
- fast talking
- risk taker
- overspend
- witty
- charismatic
- prone to making enemies

Typically, if you are within a half a standard deviation.
On scale of 1 to 5.
5.
No 7.
This described me.
Full research study. 
Confirmed these characteristics.
How many described here: [95%]
-Hypomania
Why a little bit of craziness equates to a lot of success
If you break it down
Hypo
less than
Mania - top end of manic depression.
This is psychopathy. Can be socio
Just less than manic.
Diagnostic difference - 1 thing: 
Hypomanics are functional. 
If you can just tone it down and harness that energy, you are not manic.

Emem: What makes you cross the line to the other side?

Line is very close.
Take Mark Cuban.
Steve Jobs -
I know people have worked with Steve.
No question brilliant.
Products have changed world.
People would never work with this guy again.
Howard Hughes - 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howard_Hughes
Spent last half of life in room growing his hair and fingernails.

Galdwell's book Outliers: [most]
Smart?
Not necessarily brilliant.
Just a question of being smart enough.
For entrepreneurs - don't need to be manic, just manic enough.
Get into the ballpark.

- Hypomanic \"enough\"
- cultural tradition
What does society feel about e
If you look at it as a genetic thing.
Ultimate is going somewhere else - immigration.
What happens if you chart large immigrant vs e
US
Australia
Israel - large or entire population - people are e

France
England - what is e there? Not a whole lot.

On two occasions - brought to England.
How do we get e economy going? 
We don't have it in UK.
They are smart. 
What is it?
As we were talking.
Gave them my background, up / down, bankruptcy.
\"
Goes back to Scott Shane stuff.
Consequences in Silicon Valley.
Failing is actually a good thing for many people.
At least you've been through it.
In other places, concept doesn't apply.

Emem: Noticed something here.
When people say, \"I left my job\" here they say congratulations.
In my country, they put you in a 

Obama. 
Islamic e
Goal not to export imperialism.
Share the ideas of e.
On panel at law firm.
People from Jordan
Get Angelsoft in Jordan
Early stage - people who fund them.
Major major change.
Countries beginning to realize
Tough in middle east to change cultures.
But it is happening.

Personal role model
Do you know an e?

Talking to a guy.
Degree in interactive technology.
Looking at guy, really bright. Interesting ideas.
[sniffing]
I smell something of interest.
Have you thought of starting your own company.
Anyone in your family.
Let me try a little test.
If you were to start a company - any product or service?
Company.
Anyone in your family.
Let me try a little test.
If you were to start a company - any product or service?
T
Tool for interface.
Just give me a couple of pages - who might want to buy it.
Week or so later best business plan I've ever seen.
Here's the product, market...

I'm not going to make you
EIT - Entrepreneur in Training

Zero role model.
Never occurred to him.
Started 6 months ago.
Blog about it.
You will learn from what they are doing.
Turn you into E
help others along the way.

Now that he is in the middle of Silicon Alley

how many who are e have had someone as role model.
[about 2/3rds]
Oldest daughter- had father as e
Her grandfather was e

My parents were proud. That I was in the e of the year.
My father WON the e of the year at 77 years old
Just in his spare time.
Second gen e.
My daughter, having seen the riskiness of startup world - no no no
Will be philosopher queen.
Wanted more pocket money - began tutoring. Put out business cards.
Soon as she had more customers - organized friends. Recruited more tutors.
Test to see if qualified.
Had staff of 13
Run rate of 100,000 pounds per year.
Sold business to professor.

You may say you are one thing -but you are another.
You are all at a perfect time now where anybody can create anything.
You will bring opportunity back with you.
You can carry the opportunity with you like a bubble.
This is not an e course, but you will get some.
When I took MBA - one course.
Now Columbia, NYU, training in how to start bus.
Can you train e?
Is it teachable?
What is the result of this?
What is the e life like.
I'll go through some of the adjectives.

- Challenge. You can't sit back. 
Not like flipping burgers. Concept of FLOW.
Psychology of optimal experience. What makes people really really happy.
Self actualization is really important.
you are really in the flow of things when you have a challenge just in your grasp.
If you try something too easy ...
If you try something too hard...
If just right - 
Alex: You don't think too much.
How many have felt [all]
Right there we have the essence of SU. General population - not that answer.
You are all high functioning.
Runners high.
That is flow.
Peak of endurance.

- Work.
- Dedication - game is worth the prize.
- Perseverance 
When you are in that state of flow.
Not the IPO.
When you hit your numbers - 
- Exhilaration - uptake. Buzz. Feeling is really special.
- Agony
Eghosa - only cyclical thing. Asset allocation.
Angel things, then out again. Say he is right.
May be agonizing. When Angel Capital Assoc established
needed platform for web investing.
Commission. Spent 6 months.
Decided NOT using Angelsoft. That is agonizing.
Free.
So I said, screw it, doing it anyway.
4 years later - 85% of members using it.
Turn down was agonizing.
Filing for bankruptcy - not fun.
When you see something you have built, become sustainable.
- Accomplishment
Comixology
Pond5
- Failure
Should be familiar. We really are psychopathic.
Takes enormous amount of personal psychological capital.
- Sacrifice
Not only cash.
Relationships. [nearly 100% impact]
Be careful not going over cliff.
- Control
Be able to control passions, sacrifice, downside.
Set up enterprise so you are in control.
Can take off several days and come out here.
Good for you. Good for me too.
I am in control of my time.
- Powerlessness
As a little startup entrepreneur - at end of the day - if and when pays off.
- Extraordinary Satisfaction
I have built this. I have created this.
I have created something.
Makes sacrifice worthwhile.
How many so far have found extraordinary satisfaction?
[2/3rds]
More work it takes, better it feels at other end.

- The Entrepreneurial Spectrum
You run the gamut.
Hyper-founders
Others ready - if all things in place.
People who are fearful.
People naturally not entrepreneurs.
you know who people are -
Richard Branson - you could drop him on a desert island and he would be natural e

On other end. Never would be that.
Wonderful spouse. Looks at me like I have 3 heads.
When I first said I'd start own ...
Most in middle
Natural / Ready / Potential / Fearful / Never

Juan: Teach them?

Can move along the spectrum.
Show them it is not magic.
What the economics are.
Move them up the spectrum.
Maybe work for a firm.
Encourage the stuff.
Potentially be able to see it.
Ready? Has tools. Given tools here is what you do.
Get those people into the mode.

For those who are naturals. Goal is to challenge, refine
give tools, let you go off to the moon.

That's what we try to do at SU and at incubator.

10:31 [applause]

Q: How does Angelsoft make money?
Case study. Will put at end.
Opt-in session.

Eric: Women?

Very involved.

ASTIA -
helps women
Springboard

A combination. A little genetic stuff - not determinative. Not universal.

Grameen - only lent to women. Men don't stick to it.

cultural norms are changing.
10% of CEOs are women. Ways to go.

Q: Kaufmann?
Started by guy who was a salesman.
Became top seller. Bigger region.
Company. Marion Labs - acquired.
Made billions.
In his estate - promote e
Lot of programs.
Pulled together Angel Capital Ass.
They realized after dot com crash - called leaders together
1999 / 2000 get act together.
Exchange best practices.
Good organization.
Can teach skills. Demystify it.
25 min break.
11:00 back in here. Tom Byers.
Technology Ventures
http://www.amazon.com/Technology-Ventures-Enterprise-Thomas-Byers/dp/0073380180
Slides: http://bit.ly/ahXIDZ
10:59
Tom- would be cool if you could sit with your team.

- High-Growth Technology Ventures
7 great questions.

David: Glad to see crowd.
First session to get more than assigned.
All of Silicon Valley.
Stanford - the Ur source.
Tom: But I'm a 3 time Berkeley grad.
David: On founding team.
Applied e
Relate to team projects.
[applause]

Tom: So excited. I should be applauding you.
I feel good.
We within shouting range of our teams.
Thanks for coming to California
Asia?
Europe?
Africa? Sister.
South America.
This is one of the joys of being involved.
I chose to be here.
Will join you for lunch.
Saw Tina Seelig
Got debriefed.
I'll have what she's having
That woman has a lot of passion.
Were you inspired? Better be - if you have a pulse.
Stanford Tech program.
Did she brief you?
We have 20 faculty, staff.
ECorner website
We've got lots of videos / podcast
Teach courses
Most proud of research. PhD students
going out to be future e school profs.
That is thrilling to have around us.
Those PhDs pushing envelope on theory.

There is e mindset
personality - e way of looking at life
Whether startup for profit
or social venture
or academic - my life for last 15 years.
Contribute to team.
Some sort of game changing advancement.
Invested your time to be here.

Best way to add value.
Saw VC panel.
Long week - just Wed.

- Legacy 
visit campus - just informally.
Not here to promote Stanford.
I'm just perplexed by it.
Stanford / Silicon Valley relationship since HP founded.
I've been in it since Symantec.
Started another company.
Was going to make software for pads - 20 years ago - didn't make it.
Been really interesting being an educator
teach processes of SV.
Looking at it from ivory tower.
Pretty wild.
Incredible ecosystem that is so vibrant.
Like Jane Goodall studying gorillas.
What makes SV special from economics perspective. I'm not an economist.
Got into business from operations research - PC software wave.
Get out of the building = as one colleague calls it.

What I've tried to do -
aside from course, resources
If I tried to explain this.
SV state of mind.
Kept a list.
2 page list - 10 elements of e
Book.
Wasn't very good = 1st ed.
Then got young person to write again.
All tech :
green tech
med tech
4-500 pages
What is the SV way.
You can take this away - a 2 pager.
Or survey of all theory, practice.
Or, we can just practice.

So, how do we practice.
All of you have some connection to some startup or dream.
Connect to big five. Around there.
A little dreaming. Identify the issues.
7 essential questions.

1. Why is your venture a true opportunity?
...

- Making Sense of Startups.

Takeaway: define success.
Models/frameworks for how to put arms around SV.
Complexity.
Magic.

My favorites:

Product OR Service \x3c-> Market

Opportunity Recognition
Pursuit of Opportunity

People AND Organization \x3c- -> Resources AND Capital

Collision. Tech with problems.
Getting after it.

You are kind of dancing around it. Tina. VCs.
Leaves People.

Not fair. Static.
Now stretch over time.
I like this model from Jim Collins
Good to Great
Built to Last
aspires to be Peter Drucker.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Drucker

IF underway already. Let's get going.
Quick snapshot =
why doing this
what game are we trying to change
SW
Externally OT

Triangle: 

IDEAS: Product / Market Strategy

Talent: Team and Culture

CAPITAL: Cash Flow and Venture Finance.

All interrelated.
Here's the key.
Managing the T - the time.
So intoxicating.

First things first: Assess the Venture's Vision.

7 Questions. Step through them.
Where is the water team?

2. What is your competitive positioning and how are you developing your partners and customers while developing the product and service?

3. As a focused and lean startup, what is the \"white hot\" risk to reduce as soon as possible?

4.

-

1. Why true opportunity?
Juan: Huge need.
Emem: Market
Time out- if team does not have idea yet, make one up . 3 min.
11:17
Emem: 2 bn people.
JG: because of the technology
Alex: not so aware of it
Gary: Everybody knows.
Alex: Execution.

11:23
Let's go down the list.
Water: 
What could be true opportunity.
: Providing accurate real time information.
Need clean water - need information.

Water2: Desalination
Needed.

Energy:
Organization
Challenge: Profits

Space:
Opportunity 
Challenge: extinct

Space2:
Remotely controlled humanoid robots - for inhospitable environments
Business opportunity is? What are they doing?

Upcycle:
EBAY for waste
True, growing market.
Accountable for how using waste.
Barrier: get on board.
$1 bn opportunity.
Increased transparency. Be very disruptive.
Waste stream trading - more on platform, better it gets.

Hear that one - big problem. Specific on solution.
VCs like that speak.
Big pain, here we come with specificity.

So, we have 6 there.
comments:
Stop at 12:30 the formal stuff. Continue into lunch. What have you.

Real delicate dance.
As you - the entrepreneur - 
- Global Business Recession

Very aware of externalities
Worst of Times?
Level of real output
Peak / Trough cycle

Perfect time to start 
Mother of markets out there.
I caught wave of PC.
I like talking about successes - and failures.
Would trade places with you in a second.
Opportunities everywhere.
Global Challenges = Huge Market Opportunities
Env and Sustainability
Security and Economic Stability
Digital & Physical Infrastructure
Human Health & Education

Interesting way to frame.
I'm going to explain pain.
Waves of innovation.
I will send PDF to David / Jon.
5th wave - 
Digital Networks
Biotech
Software Information Technology
6th Wave - 
You've got that wind behind you
Sustainability

Your goal - get to that next meeting.
Just part of a wave.
Gigantic.

Fine a macro level.
Of all the ones I heard - ready to endorse everything.
Affect humans, animals, kids.
Not everybody totally motivated by significance.
Where is there an economic model.
These are the questions and top 10 list.
Let me explain it first. Question #2.

Steve Blank. Let's meet him virtually.
Get out and talk.
You probably understand product development.
That is making advances.

Customer development process.
book is terrific - let's hear from him.
ECorner - 20 videos like this.
http://ecorner.stanford.edu/authorMaterialInfo.html?mid=2064
[start video]
Two essential assumptions.
Show me that there are customers who have agreed with you.
Show they would pay money.

While you are out there - find out millions of other things about customers.
I'm passionate. I've got it. We're launching.
This ought to be very quick exercise - get them to confirm.
For those thinking of starting - exercise will be sobering.
Goal of customer development process will be to take hypothesis
and see if there are customers outside the building.
[end video]

Sounds simple. 
How would you do this?

Moore's \"Crossing The Chasm\" 
Getting early adopters - disappointing.
Superstar developers - right into the chasm.
Why do some ventures get across?
This is where success is.
The big groups of people, the herds, the masses.
Start to adopt what you have.

Get specific.
A lot of you are passionate, write this up for your team.
Sentence : why care?
For (target customer) who (statement of the need or opportunity),

the (product/service name) is a (category)
that (benefit)

Sentence : why us?

For iPhone:
For anyone who wants to travel in style
who loves to communicate
the iPhone
that offers Apple's

For Energy:

For household in developing world 
who lacks access to reliable energy, 
the ETO is a vertically integrated energy solution firm
that combines knowledge, organization and financing to provide 
appropriate solution.

Why us?
Unlike non-integrated solution providers or Grameen Energy,
our product offers one-stop solution including a variety of technologies.

http://www.gshakti.org/

--

EBay waste solution:

--
Water needed at specific times.
Quality.
Service - analytics and intelligence.
Better decisions.
Questions like that.
Competitor - takadu - focus on water loss.

http://www.takadu.com/

--
Water2:
People on coastal area.
People, Governments.
Differentiator - others not energy efficient way.

--
Space: 
All customers are Small to Medium businesses
And Private individuals who want to go to space for tourism.

Why us?
Unlike chemical 
3x more efficient.
May drop cost by 10x or 100x over time.

--
Great.
Huge potential.

---
Space2:
For govt. and 
Remotely controlled - avoids risk of human life.
Low cost from mass mfg.
---

Which of those statements grabbed you and why?
Credible?

Big fan of David's here - not function - saving human lives.
More broadly believable why.
Liked Aaron's quantifiable.

What if I gave you a $10 m fund. Which to have further conversation with.
Which one appealed to you?

: Desal. Most profitable. Unidimensional VC.

: Financing energy. Really interesting. Finding appropriate scale of energy for third world.

: Who would you chose?
I'm all about the team.

3. \"white hot\" risk.
Back me up or disagree. Certain vocabulary.
From why care, why us.
More granular - which risk? Focus of cash - team - key resources.
Notion of greatest risk - that's the one that has to be looked at.
Four risks:
Team Risk
Technology Risk
Market Risk
Capital Risk
What is greatest risk to address right now.

Do you have the people to pull this off?
Emem: Market risk?
12:00
Let's check back in.
Energy Emem: Market Risk (2x) Can we make money?

So getting out of the building is key there.

Upcycle Steve C: Willing to share what their waste streams are?
and tech risk.

Desal: Capital risk.

Water: Right team. Capital low. Significant Market Risk.

Space launch: Capital - far from product, need lots of investments. Markets are uncertain.

Space2: Mainly market risk. Need to mass produce.

Step back - Market, market, market.
Why?
If you'd asked me this morning, big picture thinking - I'd have guessed we'd say technology risk.
If market is there,
Team - every company has that. Filter that out.
Most tech can be addressed.
Alex: We have assumptions of tech.
Tony: We all believe in tech.
Ronen: Marketing is the most important. If done well, then everything follows.

Give me that camera. I need to film this.
Javier: Broad vision. Have not tried to break through.

: Would say -most market risk in breakthrough.
No mousetraps.
Anticipating that market.

NYSE - most amazing financial literacy program.
Works. proven, 
cannot get districts to adopt it.

12:08.
I'm woefully behind.
Give yourself a round of applause.

I'm going to hit the accelerator.
Thinking going on in SV just blowing me away.
YOUR e thinking.
I'm going to take 

- High growth startups.
Changing my whole view.
Next step 
write plan - would be fiction.
Steve Blank - HG startups
Ones here meant NOT to be startup.
Looking for replicable business model.
What are you doing out there - not just talking, but
economic business model to let co go to scale.
If just a small bus, you failed.
So, let's hear from Randy Komisar \"Getting to Plan B\"
April 7, 2010
http://ecorner.stanford.edu/authorMaterialInfo.html?mid=2415

Could you build a business plan before there was a customer?
Vast majority of successes out there - Google, intuit, sun, did not succeed with Plan A.

Leap ahead in the time machine.
This book is one of the few tools I have seen
I'm a numbers person. I need something I can chew on.
That plan.
Why called Symantec. What grew us was anti-virus software.

Analogs / Antilogs / Leaps of Faith / Hypothesis

Revenue
Gross Margin
Operating
Working Capital
Investment

Where is the leap of faith?
Might be technical.
Identify, come out with hypothesis. Better to go measure it
in terms of as much data as possible.
Have framework for these discussions.

Question 4.
David had brought you curriculum.
Cash.
Why so hard for people in industry / public service, don't know how much cash is in their bank account.
If you were 20 entrepreneurs, you'd know.
That is the blood pressure of startups.

Sahlman's Concept of Fit
PEOPLE / DEAL / OPPORTUNITY / CONTEXT
Harvard B school 1997.

https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B3BeYKoQJeyQZGFhYWNhNTctOWNjOC00MTNmLTkzZWEtYTY4ZmFlZjZlMzAz&hl=en

Different conversation.
Just the deal? Let's go there. These things happen when
the PEOPLE / OPPORTUNITY and CONTEXT line up.
Sun / moon / stars not lined up.
Not funded? Funders are not evil.
Urge you to take a look.
Even more than top 10 list.
10 pages long.

[ photo of Microsoft at founding ]
Innovation = f ( creativity, teamwork )
http://stvp.stanford.edu

Did you know the players on the World Cup winning team?

It is statistically shown it is a team that pulls these things off.
\"Innovation is the difference between a bleak future and a bright one.\"

Stuff to learn: 
A. Recruiting - practice getting people fired up to be on your project.
Not just the 80 of you, but this network
B. Compensation
C. Culture - norms

What entrepreneurial skills do you need?:
Accepting failure
Patience http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patience
Average length of time to exit is longer than average marriage

- Skill development
Creating \"T-Shaped\" People

Breadth of Knowledge about
Entrepreneurship, Innovation, and Leadership

Depth of
Knowledge
in a 
Particular
Discipline

Not about being competitive at world class schools.
Be part of grand challenges. To make meaning.

Borrowed from D School.
Great people, like you.
don't just have this depth, but have this great breadth.
Took general education requirements.
We are proud at Stanford that we teach lots of Humanities.
It is an attitude.
Want to hire T-Shaped people - better than just drill down 

Change and Globalization
Opportunity Eval
Teamwork
Communication
Creativity
Decision Making
Persuasion and Influence
Business basics.

- Characteristics of E
Closer
Audacity
Courage
Patience
Adaptive

Kuemmerle \"A Test for the Fainthearted\" HBR 5/02

Make meaning and finish.
Guy Kawasaki.
http://ecorner.stanford.edu/authorMaterialInfo.html?mid=1171

Three ways:
Increase quality of life.
Not motivated by making money - make people more creative/productive.
We were waking up in the morning thinking of how to change people's lives.

Right a wrong.
Fix that. Pollution. Crime. Abuse. Core is to end the wrong.

Prevent the end of something good.

Think - over lunch.
How are the startups making meaning.
You were hinting at it when you pitched.
Models / Frameworks = how SV operates below the surface.
Put some perspective.
Really a pleasure. Can join you for lunch, stay to 1:30.

FM Rock station.
Used to play for a living.
KFOG
SF fog.
DJ, also did the news.
If you don't like news, why don't you go make some of your own.

OK Thank you.
12:40 [applause]
David Rose: Tom and I around lunch.
PDF will be sent.
Have a great summer.
tbyers@standord.edu

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Aug-5-Framing-Public-Policy
"Thursday
5 August 2010

David Brodwin
Brodwin and Associates
Framing and strategy consulting to sustainable businesses and nonprofits
www.brodwin.com
david@brodwin.com
415-647-2221

Lakoff, political analyst

Framing \u2013 how it works
New event happens \u2013 people need ot form an opnion, who\u2019s fault, process of forming an opnion;

Katrina shows a failutre of government to plan, and to respond
Other narrative \u2013 have to take care of yourself

How we make decisions: gather info, decide, commit emotionally, act (old theory and not how the brain works)

Issues are too complex, people lack data, lack expertise, lack time

New view: (from psych/politics)
1)What\u2019s this like? ( people process metaphorically \u2013 how can I compare this from what I know)
2)Respond emotionally (do I like this or not) 
3) Decide
4) Look for justification

Western ; psychologist
People of normal intelligence are blind to data when they are emotionally involved, studied what parts of brains are fired
First centers of brain that fire are those of fear and anxiety
Then what is searched for is long term memory
Then what is stimulated are sense of satisfaction

Brendan Nyhan

People in given false iformation but corrected, then people ignore it. Then people are even stronger
Opinions are not necessarily self correcting when passion is involved. Brain ability to filter out information is biased towards not change. Under extremes people do change. 

Frame is a pre-structured unit of meaning that exists in our brains
Getting opnion frist formed is most important

Ne w event \u2013 binds oto pre-existing frame - leads to conclusion/action
Frame is not specific slogan or ad, it is the underlying package of meaning that is evoked by the above, leading to feelings, thoughts, and actions

Parts, usage and origin ( ie \u2013 chair); this is a frame
Words of tax relief touches the frame \u201ctax affliction\u201d
Frames drive our conclusions and emotions

Sometimes a frame is being invoked even though it is never mentioned 
( 9/11 framing)

What keeps us safe? Bear in the woods

Frame is not ad, psa, slogan, bumper sticker, name of campaign, 
underlying package of meaning...

Frame: the trigger, the frame, slots of the frame, 

Frames Drive Our Conclusions and Emotions
-each frame emphasizes some aspects
-each frame de-emphasizes some aspects

Mac 1984 commercial 

What makes us heroic?
You (buyer)
Established authority
Tool: product
Result: positive
Tells us who we are

Milk Campaign with Christie Brinkley

What makes up popular?
Good for you does not evoke strong emotion positive or negative (health benefits are boring)
Convey about buyer (winner's frame)

Johnson vs. Goldwater Debate (framing a campaign)
Daisy campaign
Hawkishness of Republican candidate usually 
Candidate portrayed as paranoid who couldn't be trusted with nuclear messages

McGovern vs. Nixon
Toy soldier 
Candidate = kid, playing game, doesn't take seriously

Harold Ford candidate
Subtle inference about African American men and Caucasian women in border state

What can be framed? issue, proposed policy, event, candidate, messenger (scientist, the media), institution, audience

Audience Framing and Identity: framing the audience involves activiating the identity among many and making it primary

Typical Liberal message
I want you to help me protect them (disadvantaged group) from some other them (exploitative)
Adroit framing: connecting people to be protected with the voter (Clinton work hard and play by the rules ought to have a decent life and chance for your children; Martin Luther King racism is everybody's problem, present it as win-win, both whites and blacks are suffering)

Typical Conservative message
I want you to help me protect you from them

Once a frame sticks, it's over.
Listener has decided.
Listener can hold postion against counterargument.
Listener can convince others.
Message goes viral more easily.
Awkward facts don't matter.
Gaps in logic don't matter.

What binds a frame?
Frame factors: formal fit (don't leave slots empty), fit with listener's experience
Messenger factors: elites with authority, celebrities, people we like, trusted institutions immediate peers
Delivery factors: being first, emotional power, repetition (advertising budget, free exposure), consistency

Frame Binding Energy
Energy required to bind each time decreases

Fundamental Frames
Nation as a family: our visceral understanding of power comes from our experience as children

How Raise a Child?
Conservative view: children born impulsive, focus on self-discipline, rules-based, punishment, retributive justice, strict father model, \"Dare to Discipline\"
Progressive view: children born good, focus on self-discovey, support natural maturation processes, education based, golden rule, justice based on empathy and restitution, nurturant parent model

Nation as a family lurks under most political issues (i.e. homelessness, obesity)
Most americans can view things in strictness or nurturant biconception
Altlhought one pole is usually predominates, the other can be activated with the right campaign
Advocates should always communiate at two levels: to win on the particular issue at hand
to reinforce your world view (frame)

5 Moralities (Jonathan Haidt)
Do not harm
Fairness
In-group loyalty
Respect for authority
Purity/digust (taboos, rotten meat)

Each morality as a potential anchor point for framing

Liberals more weight do not harm, fairness higher
Conservatives hold all 5
True across many developed countries
Liberal morality will encourage much greater creativity but will weaken social structure and deplete social capital

Moral principle first then position you taking -> much more powerful

Practical Pointers
Know/feel when you're being framed (when you're confronted with an argument that you can't refute/reverse words because nonsensical, i.e., I'm against tax relief)
Do not reinforce the other side's frame
Get in touch with your core moral principle
Which ideas to encourage?
Which feelings to elicit?
What audience identity to tap?
Craft the frame that will do the job
Deliver with credibility, consistency, and power

Case study on nanomedicine

Who are victims, heroes?

Ideas can become so predominant, impossible to displace (cultural hegemony)
Starting point to get traction on a divergent viewpoint, break up predominant discourse ?

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Pad-name
"
Welcome to EtherPad!

This pad text is synchronized as you type, so that everyone viewing this page sees the same text. This allows you to collaborate seamlessly on documents!

Arrived late...

Brendan Nyhan

Subjects given plausible but false information followed by correction
Result: partisans absorbed corrections favorable to their 

*DON'T PROVIDE DATA, APPEAL TO EMOTIONS

Frames: prestructured unit of meaning that exists in our brains

New event -> binds to pre-existing frame -> leads to conclusion, emotion, action

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Aug6-American-Industrial-Policy
"Fri, August 6, 9 am - 12 noon 

American Industrial Policy PLE B.20 Conference Room 

Alexandru Celac
Candice Berezan
Connor Dickie
David Wyler
Dhaval Chadha

Dmitriy Tseliakhovich
Elizabeth Brook
Erika Anderson
Francesco Galietti
John Graves
-
Jorge Fernandez
Juan Martinez-Barea
Julian Ugarte
Maggie Jack
San Ko

15 students

9:13 am
David Brodwin
david@brodwin.com

[student intros]

Worked in mgmt.
High tech, entertainment.
Most clients within a few miles from here.
Very interested in why we weren't doing a better job running our economy.
Public policy colliding with where we needed to go strategically.
My interest in that and other public policy issues took me into exploration of why public comes to value certain things, what makes it difficult for us to have the conversations we need to have.

Leading political messaging analyst - George Lakoff.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Lakoff
Framing and messaging.
A few of you attended yesterday.
Process of how people formulate their ideas.
Will review those points.

How do we frame the economy?
The free market.
Where does it come from.
What does it make clear
What does it hide
What damage does it do as innovators.
Dominant ideology can be harmful to innovation, lead businesses down the wrong path.

Will put information in front of you about risks resulting from that frame.

Takeaway: If you are on the business side - get more involved in how these debates are shaped. Don't step back and focus only on business. Changes going on publically.

If on policy side, consider more strategic, enlightening long term policies.

Context: regardless of political affiliation, everybody wants prosperity.
We want work to be encouraged, rewarded.
People to be innovative, take risks, start companies.
Need resouces - roads, schools, police, protect borders
Want place where you can make a fresh start
We all want to live in a country where there is the prospect of upward mobility - children can aspire to a better standard of living.
These attitudes prevail.

Below surface - not much agreement on path to get there.
Free market 95 /5 - 
Another story.

Every one of you is familiar with this story in some form.
Not an economics class.
Point is not about literal truth.
We construct stories.
Free market - illustrated by Horatio Alger
Comes out of Adam Smith economics
Everyone pursues own interests
Invisibile hand
Market ties it all together
Winners earned and deserved to win
Losers are losers for a reason - did not have skills, intelligence.
Inequality is a feature, not a bug.
Nature of people competing to maximize position.

Another story. Not nearly as clearly articulated.
The Broad Prosperty Story.
Idea of the barn raising. Popular image in 19th century America.
People formed teams, put up barns. I'd help you. You'd help me.
That image has stayed in the popular consciousness.
You see it in books and movies - the idea of a communal enterprise.
About people working together. Sharing the investment to create something of value. Open to contribution - assumes people are motivated. It has a different look at winners and losers.
Story takes us to different place - no one wins on our own.
We are helped by others, help others.
By building on the collective - we are all better off.
Because it focuses on the shared aspect of this -
Direction rules and structure
Markets need oversight
Bad things happen in an economy - plants close. Not individual factors.
Inequality past a certain point is a bug, not a feature.
Lot less inequality is possible.

Highlight differences left/right.
Individual / Social
Power: 
Fin/Political is key to large teams/investments
vs Problematic 
Benign

Efficient markets / difficult markets
GDP / measure broadly (quality of life)
Critics say - if you have to put in a security system, counts as GDP. Whereas safety has a value.
Inequality is feature / Inequality is a bug.

Electrify rural economy ...

One Picture, Two Stories - old lady, young lady

How do we get to these stories.
First Adam Smith - 1776
The pin factory.
- Nobody remembers the Presuppositions
From this thing,
we process it,
but we oversimplify it.
Our brains cannot handle that much complexity.
We boil it down to 1 of 7 things we can keep in our mind.
The things here need to be true for basic idea to work:
- Need good information about product and price
?? does this work in health care - no.
- Plenty of buyers and sellers
- low entry and low exit barriers
- capital is mobile
- labor is mobile
- externalities are small enough not to matter.

Frame lives in our brains metaphorically - without the logic.

- Frames
a pre-structured unit of meaning that exists in your brain
New Event - whose fault is this? BP? The government? Random act? You must form an opinon. Map to something else.
Hard to research details.
Map to Pre-existing Frame.
Leads to Conclusion / Emotion / Action

Examples:
simplest - a chair. How do you know - seat / base / bottom.
What about beanbag chair - model in you head relates parts to whole.

Tree stump not chair? Must be made as artificial product, not natural thing.

These stories are no different.

What was 9/11?
Bush said: Act of War. 
Villain = nation
Hero = army
Method = fight back
Public's role = support & sacrifice
Goal = surrender or destruction of attacking country.

COULD have said
Crime Frame
Villain = criminal
Hero = policy
investigate
\"Move along
Capture and convict

In almost all - some dynamic.
What are Taxes?

\" Tax Relief\"
Phrase tiggers a frame about an affliction.
Hurts somebody.
Villain - dems
Victim - Americans
Hero - repub

You can tell it is a problem when you think, \"I cannot refute this.\"
When asked, \"Are you in favor of tax relief?\"
You are trapped a bit.
You are tempted to say, \"Yes I am, but not quite that way.\"

Estate Tax labeled Death Tax - never mind it only applies to 1% of Americans - gave impression it applied to everybody.

Each frame emphasizes some aspects
- pain of paying taxes
- inevitability of death

Each frame de-emphasizes some aspects.
- the things we value that taxes pay for (roads, schools, police)
- the fairness of paying for benefits received

Regardless of your political views, frames tell stories and guide thinking.
Wide variety of things can be framed:
- issue
- policy
- event
- candidate
- a messenger (scientists, the media)
\"junk science\" is a way of saying don't listen to scientists.
They are just doing this to get jobs and grants
Attack media for bias - says \"don't listen\"
- an institution (\"Washington\", \"the market\")
- the audience (computer buyers)

People are very sophisticated about this.
Very high art.

Once a frame sticks, it's over
The listener knows what to believe.
Can now hold that belief in the face of a counterattack from someone else.
Two neighbors talk - the debate tends to stop, not convincable from that point.
Simple, compact - easy to repeat - more viral spread.

Whereas - in classic way of thinking, people can't remember all the facts and be bothered to repeat it.
- Awkward facts don't matter
- Gaps in logic don't matter.

Point out that tax rates are lower - this gets ignored.
People only fit in data that confirms the frame, rejects rest.

Cartoon:
\"It's so hot\"
\"I tried to warn you\"
The world will end with Y2K, SARS, Global Warming.

Jorge: Whoever gets first wins.

Much easier to set a message than change a message.
Great example in US.
Health care. Tea party movement jumped out of nowhere.
Back in home districts - organized nationally.
Very aggressive, got lots of coverage.
Most americans had not absorbed.
Movement to block reform came up with 
death panels
before proponents could set
Aside: who does / does not get treatment. Idea that who would
get treatment would be decided by panel.

Ola: Take what president says ... Industry?

Yes, there is a framing industry here.
The way politics is done here.
The people who want the proposal do battle in area of
public opinion to get people to thing proposal is stupid.
Tell people what to think about what will be announced.
Particularly now when things are contentious.
Ad agencies, marketing advisors,
Heritage Foundation.
Media are more or less permanently aligned.
Fox is conservative
MSNBC is more liberal.
People just waiting to pounce.

When it gets to a vote - most of the work to mobilize the public
has already been done.

Ola: Underdog does this all the time.
Yes.
Ola: Government?
They also try to frame. Bush preparing to invade Iraq.
Assert war, not crime.
Point to Iraq, although not implicated.
Cameras will always focus on the President.

David A: Nigerian newspaper would do the same thing.

Ola: WHO trying to erradicate polio. Some said drug would 
make man sterile. People rejected it.
No scientific evidence whatever.

Adrianna: Slide states it is \"over\" once framing sticks.
Comes to mind - Shirley Chirad[?] race question
Everybody jumped on the framing, but it eventually didn't stick.

Bit of exaggeration. 
In that case, happened with incredible speed. 
Happened before people absorbed event.
3 hours from resignation, tape revealed. Didn't show.
Countered quickly and effectively.
Some facts blow through the frame.

Ambigous - Kerry - swift boat attacks.
2004 presidential campaign.
Accused of having shown cowardice in war.
Attack was very well orchestrated.
People who served with him.
Launched by surprise. Kerry campaign did not think it would get traction, so did not respond.
Initially, the rebuttals did not come from Kerry. Not handled well.
Is Kerry a hero or coward. Could have evidence both ways.
Evidence itself isn't clear. Viewer has to decide.
Based on frame they hold.
That's what people do. In that case it stuck.

David A: Framing of Obama as a Muslim.

Birther movement was the same.

This stuff is powerful and countering it is hard.

- Force of Nature.
Lakoff worked out.
*\"Creative Destruction\"
*Unpredictable
*Unstoppable
*Can't regulate
*Get out of the way
*Sweeps away the old
*Rebuild anew

Metaphor.
Now, is that really true?
Not really. Nothing natural about it.
Conveys that you can't influence this, so don't try.

Another frame.
[ US National Anthem wafts in from outside - laughter ensues]
- Free Markets = Free People
*Oppressor = gov't
*Oppressed = citizen
*Means of oppression = regulation
*Thing taken = personal freedom, money, property
*Liberator = those who oppose Washington.

Everybody wants FREE
Better than paying for it
Giver = someone who should be liked.

- What \"Free Market\" frame conceals
*All markets are sets of rules
*Rules made by people
*Those with power get the rules they want
*In a democracy, we question the rules
\"Class warfare\" slogan - discourages debate
Whenever someone proposes somthing that might
be progressive leveling of tax structure, 
or mortgages designed to blow up on you - restriction proposed.
They get accused of \"class warfare\" - way of saying you 
are a communist.
Make them ashamed of questioning free market frame.

Broad Prosperity frame
- Clear, shared purpose
- Consensus leadership
- Voluntary effort
- Fairness of results
- Personal connection
- Social pressure prevents shirking 

[ see Steven Weber, The Success of Open source
http://www.amazon.com/Success-Open-Source-Steven-Weber/dp/0674012925 ]

- What the \"Broad Prosperity\" story conceals
*Not everyone wants the same thing
*Tasks are not homogenous
*People respond to incentives
*We don't always have the social \"glue\"

Idea: look at CONTINGENT factors of where open source works, and where it doesn't

Discussion
Water supply in CA.
- What does the Free Market story tell us?
- What does the \"Broad Prosperity\" story tell us?

Question: Complex situation. Lot of public good. Large scale of investment. How much to privatize?

Erika: Put prices up, give benefit to water owners.

Where does that drive us?

Erika: Silicon Valley gets pools and hot tubs while farmers can't afford water for crops.
In free market model, - benign - not true.

David Brodwin: Places where things move to corruption.

Similar issues?

JG: Education.

You can screw it up from both sides.

Free market side - 
Prosperity story - what allows for change.

Presupposes consensus decision making about what to do
Presupposes power from getting too concentrated
Since concentrated power subverts what is right for the whole.
What it does not account for is the power that concentrates in unions.
Both stories point out useful things about the problem
Pure story of either side -
No public schools - problem if, when my kids don't get educated, you pay.
Prosperity story - issue of completely closed system without performance metrics.
Leads to hybrid.
Helpful - most of us knee jerk into one or the other.
Look through both stories. 
One better than the other.
Come up with smarter ways to develop policy.

Eric: Think that whatever story we like the most, what lacks in both cases the competence and understanding of the people at large.
Which decisions should be made individually and collectively.

Free market story leads to some problems.
Prosperity story leads to other problems.
In any case, what is needed is much broader appreciation of the issues.
Water wasted because it is free.

Both stories work or not based on what happens at microscale.
What I see - policies that work better - at micro level, more sophisticated understanding - individual capacity to understand how problems are connected with each other.

David: Polarized society. People don't think that way.

Eric: Telephones- fill void of connectedness. When that happens, less about free market / prosperity - find a better way.

Ola: Thought model.

David: Economists aware there is a middle way. Third way.

JG King: Powerful immorality - powerless morality

Accurate characterization
Power essential to get things done - but reaches tipping point where it becomes damaging.
Society needs to be vigilant.

Long arc of American history - 
more and more corrupt til cleaned out. 
1930s.
Everybody who remembers mess up are dead.
Things repeat.
Financial meltdown - more regulation
Human lifetimes - speculative bubbles.
\"This time it is different\"

David A: Framing is experience is being trapped.
When I get stuck in way of thinking, - emotional set pre-established.
How do I recognize I am in a frame? How do we extend education?

David B: So, frames tend to be insidious Sweep you up without your knowing it. Worst are subtle.
When things are set out right, your conscious analytical - when metaphorical - brain misses it.
Way to guage - what happens when you listen to other arguement.
1/ Can't refute - that's a frame.

Ola: Good frames? Bad?

We cannot live in a complex world without frames.
Stuff to complicated to think without frames.
Frames are often misleading.
Aware, when using frames, we are not misled.
Particularly on public issues.
Change to better energy supply, water supply - understand how
these things work.

Ola: How many frames do you get hit by as an American?

Depends on how engaged you are.
Some people go days or weeks.
Others listen to talk radio.
Let me come back to this broader point.
Train yourself to be attuned to \"framed way\" of viewing things.

2/ Notice you can't refute it.
Can't say you are against tax relief.
Another way, facts don't seem to matter. Take health care reform. 
\"Market will be most efficient provider.\" No place for fact in that assertion.

Adriana: Hit with something that doesn't have facts.
Dialog on interests as opposed to positions.

Similar.

A: Not a response to \"market will take care of health care\"
They are stating that to support their position - but what is
interest behind that position.

Way to get around frame. Yes.

Jorge: I don't see ways of - be aware of frames. My point is, how do you make yourself aware of frames. I don't tend to find the frame.
I look for cause / effect to spot assumptions.
Sometimes, very subtle.

David B: How do you detect these?

Jorge: The way I look through policies is through 
TOC
Theory of Constraints.
8 rules
Try to see if cause and effect makes sense.
Tap assumptions that are behind
Not lengthy.
How do you do that? to make yourself aware of frameworks?
Example here is clear.
Other times, hard to detect.

David B: Ask, what are presuppositions. 
What has to be true for what somebody is saying to make sense.
If they are saying, \"we shouldn't change the health care system because the market should work it out\"
Leads me to unraveling -
When WOULD the market be the right answer.
Everyone spend money the way they want -
Presupposes knowing costs ...

Ola: How handle - state governments saying, \"Do not go to Africa due to gun shots - despite gang shootings in US. Die from bad water?\" How do you handle that. Talk in 24 hours.

The other thing that is really helpful.
Pay attention to your gut feeling.
This is a very bright, intellectual crowd.
We actually store feelings with our memories.
When you hear a phrasing, get tight feeling in your gut
Sounds dangerous ...

Ola: That's a frame.
You've always been told dark skinned person.
Why are you dark? Why are you black?
You've been framed to believe only your kind are the only people on earth. 
Listen to CNN. They say negative things about other parts of the world.
So when you come across a person like myself - give him space.
Even that, when you listen to your gut feeling - could be wrong ones.

David B: Your gut can mislead you.
When working on public policy issues.
If you are left brain person, you are in more danger of not being led by your gut. To your peril, you ignore the queasy feeling.

Erika: You need to listen to your gut, but you need to question your gut.

Ola: How do you question your gut feeling? Sometimes so comfortable.

Erika: That is the intellectual challenge.

Candice: Just having awareness - consider the possibility that your are leads you to questions. Not far down path.

Ola: I know that. But sometimes it is a lot easier to just not question.

Candice: Personal accountability. If you've been made aware, ...
ultimately we are all subjective. If you choose to turn a blind eye, what can you do about that.

Jorge: If you are alone, OK. But if you manage to find people with different frame.

Ola: How?

Jorge: International. You need people to do that.
My intution tells me something. You just don't see it.
When you talk to people, they give you maybe their own frames.

David B: How to deal with negative frames about Africa.
Think it through in advance - extending invitation. How do you
want to present a positive frame of your own.
In general, when confronted with frame, need to avoid repeating it to refute it.
Don't say, \"Africa is not as dangerous as you think.\" You step into the idea that way.
Have your own story to play instead.

With tax relief. 
Say, \"Taxes are the way people pay for things that people value.\"

JG: \"Africa has tremendous opportunities for growth and development\"
David B: \"Where I live is safer than New York.\"

Jorge: Why, why.
Don't try to get into it.
Asking the questions, \"Why do you say that?\" 
Assumptions come out. Some are wierd.

10:54 5 minute break.

11:04
Some Libertarian.
Some non-US perspective.
Some humanitarian perspective.

Two key challenges regarding innovation.

1. economci success breed

- Time Lag
Industry becomes successful > 
Convert Money Power to Political Power >
Rewrite Market Rules > 
Maintain success artificially

[Chart of lobbying - $1 b per year for past decade]

On single bill, $200 to $250 m spent on one issue - 
Energy bill
Influence people in key districts.
Amount that goes into this is really big - given only 500 people
in Washington making these rules.
Jorge: ?
Money spent on influence.
This is registered lobbying spending.
A: Money spent to hire lobbyist.
Erika: Includes ads?
Includes advocacy money.
Ola: Goes to politicians.
Illegal to bribe directly.
Ola: We call it corruption. In america it is pork.
Candice: Persuasion. Just trying to get in my head. 
Ola: Ahhhh.
A: Framing.

Example of how close it gets.
Politicians create campaign funds.
Company cannot give to politician directly.
But they can contribute to fund.
Ola: contribution [laughter]

Just had Supreme Court case - essentially unlimited spending allowed.
People who can put money into the process have enormous ability to influence outcome.

- Free Market Story Hurts Innovators
*Too much money goes to legacy industries
*JG: Clean coal
*We don't support strategic growth industries
*Structural restrictions on innovation
*Weak negotiation behavior
*Failure to maintain \"fertile soil\" - like teachers unions

- Military Industrial Complex
U.S. spends more on defense than other leading countries COMBINED much of it on secure access to oil.

President Eisenhower in 1952 warned this was happening.
Entrenched.
This is basically the size of the bank bailout - each year.

- US spends est $140 bn per year protecting oil imports
So, price of gallon of gas is well north of $3 / gal

Erika: I'm a climate change attorney.
Senate has pulled the plug on having any price on carbon.

People just don't get this.

Candice: Carbon price situation is a global issue.
Some people don't value it. Can't drive anything.
Until entire world gets on board to treat it as a commodity.
You don't have everyone on board.

Jorge: I see your frameworks going on here.
Would like to see gap minder study.

David B: We may be paying $8 / gallon, but we think we are paying $3.

As business people we need to educate people about the real cost of things.

This needs to be brought out.

[Used Google http://bit.ly/c4zFxt to provide animated graphic
showing US military budget as % of GDP has been consistent
and lower than other countries.
Bigger on an absolute basis - but proportional to GDP of US.]

- Health Care - another area.
Disproportionate - 

- Agricultural Subsidies - 
Direct about $23 bn, indirect about $72 bn

- \"The government can't pick favorites\" Really ????

Looms
Canals
Railroads
Telegraph
Phone system
Air flight
Internet

Hamilton made it a strategic imperative - protectionist 25% tariff on imported goods.

- Building the Railroads
Gave away land
- Building the Interstate Highway system
equivalent of $450 b spent to build
move troops across the country if that were necessary

- Building Computer Technology
50% of R&D in semiconductor industry was US government
Subsidies through university research grants
Creating the Computer, Kenneth Flamm, Brookings Inst
http://www.amazon.com/Creating-Computer-Government-Industry-Technology/dp/0815728506/ref=ntt_at_ep_dpi_2

- Structural Barriers to Innovation
Acoustic coupler to get phone to talk over phone system
Carterfone Case (1968)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carterfone

Broadband speeds around the world
South Korea leads the way with 14 mbps in 2009
US is 4
Source: Akamai State of the Internet report 
http://www.akamai.com/stateoftheinternet/

- Free Market Story Hurts Innovators

almost 12.
End this with a plea to get involved.
Most of you will be out there starting companies,
fostering innovation.
Watch out for US Chamber which only talks for dominant companies from an earlier era.

- Get Involved
Question the \"force of nature\" - don't accept dinosaurs
New organizations - sustainable businesses
Amazing effect.
Politicians not used to hearing these messages - that business
community is divided. Makes it possible for people to do the right thing.
You have personal cred - you are doing more of that. Use it.
Help people understand these issues.

We need 4 - 6 planet earths to get all the people into the developed world.

http://www.amazon.com/Markets-Hierarchies-Analysis-Antitrust-Implications/dp/0029347807

shared
http://www.amazon.com/Dreaming-Code-Programmers-Transcendent-Software/dp/1400082471/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1281122140&sr=1-1

and
Glyn Moody on Open Source
http://2009.r2.co.nz/20100118/50350.htm

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Aug3-Creativity-as-an-Extreme-Sport
"Tues, August 3, 9 am - 12 noon

Creativity as an Extreme Sport FEE Off site 

Alaeddine Mokri
Alison Lewis
Bill Bing
x Brad Kohlenberg
x Bryce Goodman

Carlos Azevedo
x Claudia Olsson
David Hutchison
x Dhaval Chadha
x Erez Livneh
-
x Erika Anderson
x Eugenie Rives
x Everson
Fabio Teixeira
x Francesco Galietti
x John Graves

Jorge Fernandez
x Juan Martinez-Barea
x Julian Ugarte
x Kausar Samli
x Michael Jensen
-
x Miguel Oroz
x Raycho Raychev
x Sarahjane Pell
x Sasah Grujicic
x Sharon Niv

Steve Cronin
Tigist Ashenaffi
x Valentina Margaria
x Yara Shaban
x Everson Lopes
x Gary Galtier

29 Students

Kicklabs
http://www.kicklabs.com/
San Francisco

InGenious - Prezi.com

David Rose:
Wonderful outdoor patio
Kicklabs - incubator
Opened 1 month ago
Work to create innovation center
Help early stage startup companies,
innovate
and grow.
Some to help this afternoon.

V: Why no one here?

This is tech.
9:30 am
People here often work late.
Rarely a 9-to-5.
Often a 24 hour business.
No hall monitor.

Tina Seelig
Stanford

Will open your eyes and open your brain.

Quick layout - talk/exercise this morning.
box lunches
Whole afternoon
how to pitch VC
Reception - on patio or out here
Panel on VC - with leading VCs from the Valley

9:29 [applause]

Tina: I am so excited.
I participated last year.
Luckiest people on the planet.
Quickly - your name and where you are from.
We met in a hot tub.

On phone with Saudi Arabia this morning.

Kid just spent semester in NZ.

This is like the United Nations. Unbelievable.

Exec Director of Stanford.
PhD Neurophysiology
Written books
At Stanford about 10 years
Love what I am doing.

Most recent book - what I wish I knew when I was 20
Making things happen
Doing realy well - esp. internationality
I have given so many talks on this book
Harper Collins - new book.
No one else has seen this talk.
My first Prezi.
Go through this - lots and lots of stories to stimulate creativity.

Just started writing this book.
Hoping you guys will help me out.
What is valuable
Where are the holes.

- Can you enhance CREATIVITY?
Can you stimulate?
Can you teach?

Teach 5 + 5 = X
Didn't have to negotiate this. 
Convergent Thinking.

X + Y = 10
An infinite number of answers.
Don't give the kids open ended problems.
If you gave someone a problem like this you could write for days.
the previous problem, just one answer.

This concept goes all the way through college.
Examples where people are forced to think very divergently.

Oxford, give people.
One Word Exam
Bryce: For All Soul's. Entrance. Just stopped doing it.
\"Water\"
\"Bias\"
\"Integrity\"
Draw upon everything you know.
From history, physics, ...
why don't we teach that way.

Really innovative companies want you to think this way.

Google: How many piano tuners are there in the world?
If you were the size of a nickel and thrown into a blender what would you do?

10 things you can do to enhance your creativity.
I want your feedback.

- OBSERVATION
Are you paying attention?
\"Most people do not pay attention.\"
Most people go through life with blinders on.
Study - Richard Wiseman from the UK.
Took 2 groups of people
self identified as lucky and unlucky.
Had them come into a room, sit with newspaper.
Count images.
Unlucky - took 5 min. +/- rarely right.
Lucky - take 30 seconds. All have it right.
Right inside the paper -\"stop counting, there are 39 pictures\" in 2 inch high font.
If you stop counting now, I will give you 250 pounds.
Most people go through life not paying attention.
You've seen the video of the gorilla - people passing balls.

How do you learn to pay attention.
These puzzles are numbered on the back.
Very hard. How many people notice the number.
the answers are right there for you - but people don't pay attention.
Go out and look with fresh eyes.
Notice things you have not seen before.
You have not paid attention to most things.
First step. Next:
- Connecting and Combining
\"Trade is to culture as sex is to biology\"
We have all this recombining, experimentation.
Trade is the same way.
One person walking on this path, paying attention.
If they share knowledge, you have dramatically increased the number
of things you can combine.
How do you get combinations?
- Metaphor
Ideas are like ...
Because ...
Therefore.

Ideas are like waffles, because you should throw the first one out.
Therefore, expect to try one.

Ideas are like oranges

Ideas are like clouds

Ideas are like gems

We could keep going on and on.
Practice.

What is this a picture of? A cigar. But not a cigar.
Molecular gastronomy.
this is from Modo - in Chicago - duck confit, ashes are ground sesame seed.
Nothing is as it seems.
Fried egg is really mango with coconut.
Very surprising, fun, provocative.

- Challenging Assumptions
I want you to stand up.
I want you to line up by your birthdays.
No talking.
What was first thought you had?
First assumption was that you would talk.
Next? Put hands up.
Interesting thing - wrote down.
Did anybody else think to write down?
Anything else you could have done?
Driver's License? Passport?
People go with the first solution all the time.
Assumption is you go with the first thing. Often not the best solution.
You guys are really smart. Would not have been any mistake.
Put grid on floor.
- The 3rd Third
come up with huge number of ideas.
Garbage from your memory.
End up with cars with 20 cup holders.
The second one - some interesting ideas.
Push beyond what is reasonable.
It is the 3rd Third where you get the good ideas.

- Experiment
Try lots of things and keep what works
Commit - 
- Rapid prototypes
Re-search - look again, look again, look again

- Reframe problems
Very important
Story: Have students come up with a list.
All the things we depend on airplanes for:
Transportation of objects
Food
Mail
People
Cars [?]
What would happen if there were no airplanes.
List all the consequences.
Then each team picks problem -
how to solve it without an airplane
sometimes more clever and creative than an airplane.

Example: no fruits and veg. fresh
Why don't we take trains and turn them into moving greenhouses.
Even fresher - pick tomatoes right off the train.
My Name is: 
Come into class first day - look around at things to redesign.
I hate name tags. 
I want you to redesign \"an introduction device\"
Make \"name tag\" bigger, pink.
But reframed, open up frame of possibilities, innovative solutions
how do I solve a problem.
Only one of a zillion possibilities.

Give them pictures. A patent picture.
Look at this. What scale is this. What angle is this.
what if it is nano scale or size of moon.

- SPACE MATTERS
Chris - you thought of having a slide, flexibility, natural light.
Space we work in matters a lot.
Kindergarten - lots of manipulatives.
Room of desks
room of cubicles.
Workshop on creativity - what is space you might be in.
One said, \"We should get out of our offices to brainstorm\"
Seems crazy to have to leave the place you normally work to do something creative.

typical for students - sofa, 
Modo - making foods using dry ice.
Getting out there doing things.

- TIME MATTERS too
Types of time pressures 
impacts
PRESSURE /
like being on treadmill
exhausting, debilitating
Apollo 13 - the Mission. This pressure is literally - put together the device
OK. Take the manual, rip off the cover. It becomes the cover rather than the content.
Feel like a mission - different from treadmill.
Feeling like you have a focused goal - incredible

- CONTROL v FLEXIBILITY
how much freedom. How many rules are there.
In doing this, wanted to come up with a model where there is a perfect balance 
between creativity and control
If you were thinking of this balance - no right answer.
Marriage
Dean Kamen - use good judgement
Sports - 
Theatre/Arts/Music - certain number of notes, amazing combinations
Deck of cards - endless games
Cooking - wide range of ingredients with loose controls.

I came up with Scrabble version.
Really good model. Board is always the same.
Incentives are put in place - further out you go.
Every time you play, pull more letters out.
So, what I did in my class. Put out boards. 
Every 10 minutes, changed the rules.
Tighten - to 4 letters.
Or you have to build a word on the word before.
9 letters instead of 7.
Foreign words allowed.

People delighted to opening of rules.
People dejected by tightening of rules.
Higher scores with higher constraints?
Creativity - people had to do more creative things to be successful..
Competition broke down.
Build word on one before - you put word to help me.

Loosen rules - really interesting.
Became sloppy - put down the first thing. Dissent on teams.
Sloppiness due to too many resources.
So, thinking about this is really important.
If you are putting together team, coming up with the right constraints.
A few, like in Scrabble.
Helps to constrain things in a really positive way.
Apollo 13 - creativity was amazing due to limits of time and materials.
In addition, incentives.

- Daniel Pink's book.
External
I have found and 
Internal - much much more creative.
I hate giving grades. I essentially don't give grades. I give A's.
- NO GRADES
If people ask - 200 people looking for 30 spots.
Set bar really high.
Just going to get higher with each project.
People keep jumping over it.
650 blog posts. They just kept blogging after course was over.
Had nothing to do with the course.
If I give assignment in class and outside - the ones outside do better.
If you are doing it for ME, all of a sudden your internal motivation goes up.
So the key is to tap into how to help people reach their internal goals.
Can get amazing results.

- ATTITUDE
Cultivating an attitude of innovation.
Means saying, whenever you get to a challenge you know there is a creative solution.
China.
[great wall photo]
So, I was in China, at Forbidden City. Bumped into students going to Great Wall at sunrise.
Before I leave Beijing, I told friends I would do this.
Started with Hotel.
Leave at 3AM.
Then colleagues - no, no, no.
Everyone was waiting.
Called cabs, limos.
I'm just going to fail here ... but I said, I teach creativity.
There has to be a solution right under my feet.
4 PM the day before.
What here in my environment is going to help me.
Pick some random object and figure out how it will help.

Student- move furniture.
How is this case of wine going to help me get my furniture moved.
On Craig's list ..
Within 2 hours was moved.

So I went to school. Talked to student.
Chatted up student - Oceanis. Told him. You are a prof at Stanford.
If you help me and my group, I will write a letter of recommendation for you for college.
Tell the story of how you helped me solve my problem.
Native. Spoke chinese. Found cab driver. Became interpreter.
Just got e-mail from his last night. One of my closest friends.
We did it.
Having an attitude that you can solve your problem is one of the most powerful things.

Review now.
10 things to ramp up creativity.

- OBSERVE - you will do. Most don't
- CONNECT - remember the cigar, crossroads
- CHALLENGE ASSUMPTINS - when you lined up for birthdays
- EXPERIMENT - as much, rapid prototype, re-search
- CHANGE RULES - scrabble game - modify rules to extract
- REFRAME - name tag - if dealing with some issue 
The embrace thinking bag. Went to India. Help baby incubators.
Went to help with that. They said, crazy, most babies not born in hospital.
Most babies just need to be kept warm. Reframing - keep babies warm.
Made $20 baby sleeping bag. No electricity. Wax in boiling water. Wax phase change at body temp.
Keeps baby warm for 4 hours.
- SPACE it does matter. I always love my architect friends. High ceilings.
- TIME pressure you are putting on people
- INCENTIVES
- ATTITUDE

So, all of that - you end up with InGenious solutions.

This was my prototype.
OK? Great?
What things did you like the best?
Most memorable?

Brad: Modo
Great wall.
SN: Stand up
Anders: Change the rules - first impression was different
Erika: Discuss educaiton - x + y = 10

That was an Aha moment.
That's it.
That's what we are trying to do.
How may times in your day jobs does someone give you a question with an answer.

Article.
Teaching Kids to Cheat.
All the ways kids cheat in school.
Why tell people not to talk, not to use all the resources 
Makes it easy for people to grade exams.

D: Used to teach monks. First time I gave test. Everyone was cheating -was collaboration.

How many of you love multiple choice test.
Test what you don't know.
Assumptions of person.
Favorite story - PhD - med school friend taking.
First place where information from two eyes comes together.
I could give you a lecture on anatomy, but what was the answer?
It doesn't test what you konw, but what you don't know.

Sasha: would like to see connections between them - or one example throughout the program.
Add them together ..

Maybe one story at the end that ties it together - 

Sasha: or build incrementally.

Nice to see these other stories.

V: I agree. Context is great. Points you make - put up slides that make you visualize them.
Wall of China.
Not just words.
Would not repeat at end.

SN: Put up numbers.
V: Talk is not that long. 
SJP: Just going back to 10 points .7 I remembered. Didn't have the visual cues to link back.
Would be strengthened by visual cue.

Story and visual cue.
With this book - had talk first, then book.
Lots more stories.
this time, first rev.
Will have more stories to amplify it.
Glad this works as a base.

E: Not just business. Life in general.
J: Transitions were flat in Prezi

S: Appreciated story from China.
Description of mission with rocket.
Other workshops - why weren't we doing it.

Did you like me telling what I did in my classes.

Erez: As many demos as possible.
Bryce: What is the central thesis.
What you start of with is - rethink pedagogy.
Coud explicitly do that.
Two ways of phrasing - classroom examples prove creativity through lens of you as a teacher.
This is how creativity is taught.

Tie back to idea - you can teach creativity and this is what we do.

V: Ken Robinson's talk.

He and I spoke together recently.

10:25 Come back and do project [applause]

10:43
David Rose: Folks. Ten hut.
Ten tracks of exponential technology
Best possible presentations and bribe you.
You get a copy of Tina's book.
About applying innovation to Entrepreneur
Do Tina's presentation earlier in the semester.
All get copies. [applause]
We have your names.

Tina: Thank you.

I think about idea generation.
How many of you have spent time in the perfect brainstorm.
How many have been in a brainstorm that sucks. That is a technical term.
Counterintuitive things.
Workshops with brainstorming?
[IDEO]
Most important things.

SJP: No rules.
Not true. No judgement.
E: Everyone speaks.
I'm writing it down.
Erez: No limits - no constraints.
Can we say \"wild ideas are OK\"
: Build on other ideas
Flow should be - jump to something else.
V: Small groups. Not more than 6.
Two pizza teams.
Anders: Stay focused.
What do we stay focused on.
How do we know what the problem is.
This is really really important.
Framing the problem dramatically effects the outcome.
Name tag or introduction device.
If I say \"World Peace\" or \"What color marker do I use\"

: Visualize.
Draw. Who - 
: Everybody
That's not intuitive. 
Everybody has a pen.

You said no limits, I wrote wild ideas.
I bet you have ideas and - people could be writing while someone else is speaking.

If you have someone in the front with a pen, they control discussion.

What else?

Bryce: Picking where in area. Also the level. How to define this thing. Or how do we get water to this group of people. How abstract.

If I solve that problem what would that do for me.

\"I need to build a bridge.\" 
Problem is how to get to other side.
To visit mother.
What would that do for you?
To communicate.

Bryce: Agree to operate on same level of abstraction.
For some people, World Peace is \"what is Peace\" others
touch on \"What UN resolution to pass\"

I could argue there might be some low hanging fruit.
Big ideas might inspire small ones.

Forget anything important?

: No \"yeah, but\"

I've asked people - 
My father said, you are allowed to criticize so long as you have an alternative.

: Take notes

Capture everything.
Number the ideas.
Saturate the space - words, pictures, photos.
What was that idea.
How many ideas do we want?

: As many as possible.

Flavors of ice cream.
250
Keep pushing.
Lots and lots of ideas.

: Divide in groups. Compete on quantity.

: Change - reframe. 

Frame and reframe.

SJP: Portait, Landscape, Still life.

Love that. Zooming in and out. Different lens.

Bryce: Set amount of time.

How much?

:15 min
: 5 min
: 1 hour.

I've been in brainstorm that goes so long, you feel like you will die.
Know how much time ... next 2 hours brainstorming on this.
Or \"I need a quick brainstorm\"

SJP: Candy.

Need caffine, chocolate. Food. Really important.

: stuff

Dhuval: Maybe beer. Playdoh. Lego.

Props.
Things you can rapidly prototype.
Important not to be in sterile space.

Bryce: Good not to have computers.

If used with care ...
Sometimes images.

Who should be in the room.

: Diverse group

People who are users as well.
Designing a car.

Do people in room make decision about which ideas are implemented.

There is a huge difference between exploration and exploitation stage.

You need a Chinese wall between these things.
If you start trying to implement, you cut brainstorming off too early.

vote on best ideas?
Give everyone a sticker.
One problem. You might be looking at feasible.
You, as the customer, is looking a favorite.
Someone else looks at impact.

Three different colors - 
low hanging fruit = blue
favorite = red
Impactful = yellow
etc.

Get all this data. Don't make people choose.

Expansion of commitment.

New?

Alison: Time. Ending.

Brainstorming? Groups of 5/6.
Turn seats around. Create table.
11:02
5 teams
11:05

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Thinking_Hats
12:00
*4.1 White hat \u2013 Facts & Information
*4.2 Red hat \u2013 Feelings & Emotions
*4.3 Black hat \u2013 Negatives
*4.4 Yellow hat \u2013 Positives
*4.5 Green hat \u2013 New Ideas
*4.6 Blue hat \u2013 The Big Picture

Bryce: How to bring in evaluation?

Time for black hats.

Or, go through hat colors.

Jim Hurd: Founders are relentless optimists

When I put together teams, I make sure different hats are represented.

Meyers Briggs - and others.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myers-Briggs_Type_Indicator
Great for getting conversation started.

When you say you are a black hat, I can expect that from you.

Look at the energy, laughing. Best brainstorms - you come out feeling taller than you were before.
Meaningful and provocative conversations reverses depression.
You should have your mood elated when you finish.

: How do you initiate this?

I find it really interesting. 
Pay attention.
Say, \"That was a good idea.\" You see that person smile.
You can feel yourself feel better.
Nothing better than people building on people's ideas.
Everyone feels like they have birthed a baby.
Don't feel you have to make a decision at the end.
Process should be generative and exciting.

: Facilitation. Need for leadership.

How many have done it? Hear different points of view.

Anders: One point - be neutral. Focus on process, not content.
Sharon: Be positive.
Jim Hurd: Be provacateur. Cause smarts - bring out passions/talents. Can be lowest common denominator.

: Get people engaged.
: Important. 

Brainstorming on your own.

Alison: If we just get down, not asking permission.
Then when we went around, found different.

Here is what works, what doesn't.
When I've done this = no early anchoring.
But what ended up happening - competitive sport.
You have 20 and I have 5.
Blue and Green - more of yours than mine, I feel a bit bad.
Limit to JUST those ideas, don't build as much.
If put out raw ideas, gets more collaborative and generative.
If all have same idea, we all said this.

K: Similar ideas came out. But synthesized. See different perspectives.

: It is about time. Can make too many ideas.
Starting point.

Gave you a direction to go.
Created landscape - could pick one and run from that.

: Starting from blank sheet. For us, worked great. 

Anders: Not only face of the brainstorm - the 3rd third.
With yourself, only top of mind ideas.

How do you get beyond those ideas.

: Second excercise was this - a context. A problem.
Start with a rule.

Why use bad idea to generate good idea?

: Sometimes ...

Even something really crazy can be the root of something really good.
You've opened the frame to come up with really crazy ideas.
When you had to come up with bad ideas, people had to think of them as stupid.

\"Only recycled food\" - stupid idea.
BUT, if supposed to come up with bad idea - 

Claudia: Good/bad ideas mixed.
System - write on post its - write / vote.
Anchoring effect.
Don't build. You want to build on your own.
Another way - explore one idea - discuss it, leave it.

Really, really good point.
Taking someone else's idea - you don't have ownership of it.
Worst - favorite example - the Apprentice.
At the beginning, given some challenge.
If at the end they fail, would say - well, was THEIR idea.
At the end of a good brainstorming session, it should be \"I don't know where that idea came from.\"
Is that your experience?
Whole greater than sum of parts.

Claudia: Changing pace.
Bryce/Alison - stop watch - 15 seconds / person.

Shaking things up. Doing things differently.

Erez: Optimal sequence of hats. Grand ideas to facts to devils advocate.

Ideas cross-polinated. 

so, this is a really fun tool for you to use at the D school
At the end of the session.
I like
I wish

I like ..., I wish ..., what if ...

Go through really quickly.
I like:
10 points
Your ENERGY
The last exercise
The space
The topic of food
Really crazy ideas from worst idea
Different hats - opened my eyes a bit
teamwork

I wish:
A computer program for brainstorming
Everybody would use these techniques
Individual
Time for our own projects
For you to come to SU to help with team projects
Write brainstorm for our group
Beyond brainstorming
colored pencils and props
And chocolate
Would like your presentation

What if
we stay here
started later
you participate in sessions
brainstorm during lunch
got to see your new book when it is done
took - presentation / prototype
Last year, just a talk. Asked to do workshop
Sitting on floor
not at tables
Workshop, then talk

You were fabulous.
tseelig@stanford.edu
12:25
David Rose: Let this sit, percolate.
2 hour break for lunch and enjoying.

Hi. Beverly. Welcome to Kicklabs.
Tina: Met on plane. Keep connecting.
Beverly: Where you are. You lunches are on round table downstairs.
South Beach / Mission Bay.
Embarcadero to left. Magnificent.
Down 2nd to AT&T SF Giants play. 
Check your watches.
David: Lots of cool stuff.
SN: Ferry building?
Not far. Farmer's market day.
Ferries come in from Marin.
Enjoy our community.
Questions: beverly@kicklabs.com

Sash: Can we leave bags?
Best, against wall.
David Rose: This is a working incubator.
8 companies here.
Beverly: Use recycling.
Art by Erik Otto
http://www.erikotto.com/
SF recology
All materials come out of the dumps.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Aug5-How-to-Create-a-Global-Phenomenon
"Thurs, August 5, 9 am - 12 noon

David Rose

Tim Ferriss
Slides: 

How to Create a Global Phenomenon FEE B.583C Atrium 

Aaron Kemmer
Anders Hvid
Ankur Jain
Bill Bing
Brad Kohlenberg

Bryce Goodman
Candice Berezan
Carlos Azevedo
Chiara Giovenzana
Chiara Turelli
-
David Dalrymple
David Roberts
Derek Jacoby
Dhaval Chadha
Dmitriy Tseliakhovich

Elizabeth Brook
Emem Andrew
Erez Livneh
Eric Ezechieli
Erika Anderson
-
Eugenie Rives
Everson Lopes
Francesco Galietti
Homan Chan
Javier Mares

John Graves
Jorge Fernandez
Juan Martinez-Barea
Julian Ugarte
Julio Silva
-
Justin Pahara
Marko Bitenc
Matthew Kern
Mercy Njima
Michael Chen

Michael Jensen
Miguel Oroz
Nolene Naidu
Rand Hindi
Raycho Raychev
-
Ronen Amit
Steve Cronin
Tony Lyu
Tyler Kratz
Yara Shaban

Zain Jaffer

46 Students

9:08 David Rose: 
- Financing Your Singularly Brilliant Venture
9:12 Another 5 minutes.
9:16 Welcome
Give you some high octane
Money is what it takes to get your venture off the ground.
Money grows on trees.
No.
There is a little bit of money that grows on trees.
Grants = Free money.
Charitable ventures do this.
-
Government also provides free money to start companies and spur the economy
SBIR/STTR - passed by congress, every government org. must spin out its tech to help out start up companies
http://grants.gov/

NASA Program Site:

http://sbir.gsfc.nasa.gov/SBIR/SBIR.html

SBIR Gateway (contains all Agencies SBIR programs, news, events, etc...):

http://www.zyn.com/sbir/

Pase 1: up to 100,000
Phase 2: up to 750,000
Phase 3: Go raise money yourself
-
Best way to raise funds for your start-up:
Bootstrapping is best!
The discipline of doing this will give you the skills and get you ready for running the company.
By actually funding yourself you won't need to be diluted
-
If you can't boot strap?
Banks are not in the business of helping start up companies, very risk averse
Banks are not in the risk business. Start-ups are too risky for them. Banks are in the business of renting money. Only start-ups that can get a bank loan are ones that have your personal gaurantee, so you are held liable if your venture fails.
[ See also:
http://www.entrepreneur.com/money/financing/startupfinancingcolumnistasheeshadvani/article78578.html

Obtaining a Loan for Your Startup
Getting money for your new business is easier than you think--once you dispel the three common myths of bank financing.
1. If you need money, you can get a loan from the SBA. WRONG.
http://www.sba.gov/financialassistance/borrowers/guaranteed/

SBA Program Office
The Microloan Program provides small, short-term loans to small business concerns as well as not-for-profit child-care centers. SBA makes funds available to specially designated intermediary lenders, which are nonprofit community-based organizations with experience in lending as well as management and technical assistance; these intermediaries make loans to eligible borrowers. The maximum loan amount is $35,000; the average loan is about $13,000.

What It Is: Term loans from a bank or commercial lending institution of up to 10 years, with the Small Business Administration (SBA) guaranteeing as much as 80 percent of the loan principal.
Appropriate for: Established small businesses capable of repaying a loan from cash flow, but whose principals may be looking for a longer term to reduce payments or may have inadequate corporate or personal assets to collateralize the loan.
Supply: Vast. The SBA guarantees some $12 billion per year in loans.
]

-
Raising Equity: selling a part of your company and getting a partner
-
1st investor in your company is YOU! No one will invest in your company if you haven't invested in it. You are betting on YOU! So others are also betting on YOU!
Investors want to see you put in your money before they put in any money.
The key here is relative. Does the amount you put in mean something to you? Investors want your 'skin in the game', so it will hurt you if it fails. Insurance that you will put in your best to make it a success if your 'skin is in the game'. Is this important enough to you to invest in it yourself. If not, why should others invest?

2nd investor(s) is friends and family. These people are betting on you and KNOW you.

3rd investor is Angel Investors. Small investment to get you going (early stage deals ~55,00 deals/year). Angels are rich(-ish) people who invest their own money for economic and other reasons. Generally not a high net worth individual.
http://www.wbaa.biz/members.html
http://www.angelcapitalassociation.org/

4th investor is Venture Capitalists. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_venture_capital_firms
http://www.vfinance.com/home.asp?toolpage=vencaentire.asp
Big investment for big return. VCs are professional money managers who manage someone else's money for an economic return. VCs are compensated with 2% of the funds raised in a given year to pay for their salaries, etc. 98% goes back into investments. VCs mostly do later stage deals ~5000 deals/year)

Alan Patricof's blog post on what it is like to be a VC.
http://www.businessinsider.com/alan-patricof-raising-money-for-vc-2010-7
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-patricof/
[ See also
http://informationarbitrage.com/post/748353905/from-angel-investor-to-venture-investor-a-process
]

Kaufmann Foundation http://www.kauffman.org/
helped organize Angel investors as they were the only ones investing in start ups
VCs now primarily fund late stage companies
Angels do about 10x the amount of deals at early stage

Typical Chart of funding amount vs. stage of business:
Friends, family and fools get you 0-100K; at the idea & plan stage
Angels 0-500K; idea, plan, prototype, beta
Grants: 100K - 750K; plan, prototype, beta
Angel Groups: 110K-1.2M; prototype, beta, sales
Strategic Partners: 50K-50M; prototype, beta, sales, profitability. Companies who purchase innovation by making strategic investments into relevant start-ups.
VCs: 1M-12M; beta, sales. 10x-20x return in investment (for equity).
Banks: 5K-40M; profitability only come into play when you are already profitable.
IPO: 15M-100M+; late profitability. selling equity to the public when you are really profitable.

Giving up roughly 20%-40% equity/round of investment. In theory the value of the enterprise is growing with each successive round of invesment. So your percentage decreases but the value of your percentage increases (ideally). 

[ See also http://www.lgprogram.energy.gov/
The U.S. Department of Energy's Loan Guarantee Program paves the way for federal support of clean energy projects that use innovative technologies. 
- for example, Secretary Chu Announces Closing of $117 Million Loan Guarantee for Kahuku Wind Power Project July 27, 2010 ]

Government Grants $2B
Angel Investment $20B
VC $25B

600,000 startups: http://www.kauffman.org/research-and-policy/kiea-interactive.aspx

Ave Angel Investor:
Age 56
Masters degree
15 years entrepreneur
2.7 ventures founded
9 years investing
10 investments (roughly 1 investment/year - which is kind of low)
2 exits/closures so far
10% of wealth in angel investments.

\"Accredited Investor\"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accredited_investor
US Federal regulation: $1M in assets (not including home) or $200,000 annual income in the past two years and reasonable likelyhood of similiar income level for current year.

Secret Economics of the Angels
What's an appropriate return for an angel

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernard_Madoff
[ Penalty: 150 years imprisonment and forfeiture of $170.179 billion ]

Angel Investor returns:
http://www.rightsidecapital.com/assets/documents/HistoricalAngelReturn.pdf
[ historical returns in the business angel market. The average return across all these studies was 27.3% 
These studies further reveal that most of the returns came from only 5% to 10% of investments.
52% of all investments resulted in a negative return, most of these with a total loss of invested capital. 7% of investments returned greater than 10X to investors. ]

$1M for angel investments
Distributed over 10 deals
1.25e6 = 3.8x ROI (over a 6 year time period)
5 = 0X ROI, roughly 5/10 investments are going to go under! This is a risky business.
2 = 1X ROI, 2 of the remaining 5 will likely give the money back.
2 = 3X ROI, will likely make it good.
1 = 30X ROI needed to hit RI target set by the angel investors internally!!! This is why angels are all nuts!

IDEA (scale of valuation) x (Execution)
Awful = -1 ($1)
Weak = 1 ($1,000)
So-So = 5 ($10,000)
Good = 10 ($100,000)
Great = 15 ($1,000,000)
Brilliant = 20 ($10,000,000)

Execution is critical.

brilliant idea x so-so execution = $200,000
so-so idea x brilliant execution = $50,000,000

COMMUNICATION is key

Components that you need:
1. Business Plan - tells you where you are going. (VCs will generally not read the full thing...they will likely read the Executive Summary 1-2 pages, primarily text with some graphics). AngelSoft requires 1pg 'Executive Summary' when approached by a start-up.
2. Executive Summary (or One pager by AngelSoft)
3. Email (very short elevator pitch in writing)
4. Network - personal contact to find VC. Being intelligent about who you know and asking everyone if they know someone who might invest in your venture. Use your social network resources INTELLIGENTLY. Keep it with people you know and relate with.
[ LinkedIn Singularity University Group - 
Members (369)
: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?mostPopular=&gid=1874029 ]
5. Elevator Pitch - 30 secs to get someone excited!
i. what's exciting.
ii. what do you do. tell them what the hell you do. we are the X for Y.
iii. who you are.
iv. keep it simple
v. aim for 30s.
vi. know it cold
6. Video (include a video in your initial applicaiton, can you should model working which you can't show in a presentation)
7. PPT presentation

Notes from Steve:
SBIR = Small Business Innovation Research
SMTT = Small Business Innovation Research

Phase I: up to $100,000

1 in 4 receive this

Phase II: up to $750,000

Phase III --> you have to get it yourself

Bootstrapping is the best way to finance a company!
Banks aren't in the business of funding startups --> they don't want to take the risk.
Startups can't get loans!! --> only if you personally promse to pay back (can't get an unsecured loan).
Raising equity: selling part of your company and gaining a partner --> this is really risky, close to selling your soul.
YOU will be your first investor...
Friends, and family should be second...
Angel investors should be third...
Venture capitalists are next

Venture capitalists --> professional money managers who invest large pools of other people's money for an economic return.
LP ==> Limited Partners (losses limited only to the extent of the money they lose)
GP ==> General Partner (responsible for any debt incurred by the firm)

Angel Investors --> Rich(ish) people who invest their own money for economic and other reasons (but not billionaires typically)

VC's get 2% of the committed funds for running the fund for fancy dinners, etc plus 20% of the upside in returns

After the dot-com crash, tons of LPs lost money and talked to the VC fund.. where's my money! don't lose my money! then VCs stopped leading money, thus there was almost NO VC money available after the dot-com crash.

Early, Late ---> Angels 55,000 deals mostly early-stage

Idea ---> Plan ---> Prototype ---> Beta ---> Sales ---> Profitability

Friends, Family & Fools $100k --> Idea, Plan
Angel Investors $300k to $500k --> Idea, Plan, Prototype, Beta
SBIR/STTR Grants --> $100k to $750k

Angel Groups $500k to $1-$3 million
Strategic Partners --> corporate partners, deals between companies, etc (google buying admob, etc)
Venture Capital --> $3 - $4, $10 million (show me sales, profitability)
Banks --> only once you are profitable from $0 to tens of millions
IPO -> $50M to $100M

20 - 40% is given up after each round of financing

US Early Stage Financing

Govt Grants $2 b
Angel investing $20 B
Venture Capital $25 B

600,000 companies started this year, here's the break down:
350,000 founders
200,000 friends and family
50,000 angels
1,000 venture capital

Profile of an Angel: age 57
masters degree
15 year entrepreneur
2.7 ventures founded

9 years investing
10 investing
2 exits/closures so far
10% of wealth in angel investments

\"Accredited Investor\"
$1 million in assets (not including home) or
$200,000 annual income in past two years

Secret Economics of the Angels
Well managed angel funds return 25- 30%

$1 million for angel investments distributed over 10 deals
1.25 ^ 6 = 3.8 x ROI - Return on Investment

5 will go no where = 0 x 1/10 x 5 x 0 = 0.0
2 will get my money back = 1 x 1/10 x 2 x 1 = 0.2
2 will get me 3x my money = 3 x 1/10 x 2 x 3 = 0.6
1 your deal must return 30x = 30 x 1/10 x 

Execution is a multiplier of an idea

How good of an idea?
Awful = -1
Weak= 1
So-So= 5
Good= 10
Great = 15
Brilliant= 20

Execution
None = $1
Weak = $1,000
So-So = $10,000
Good = $100,000
Great = $1,000,000
Brilliant = $10,000,000

brilliant Idea x So-so execution = $200,000
So-so Idea x Brilliant Execution = $50,000,000

Business Plan
Executive Summary

One Pager --> Angel soft creates this. 140 characters?
Create an email pitch.

You must network to get cash for your idea.

Create a presentation
Create a video
What is your elevator pitch

The elevator pitch
what's exciting
what you do
who you are
keep it simple
aim for 30 seconds
have it down cold!

Handout from pitch presentation coming.

Instant Workshop Feedback Week 7
https://spreadsheets.google.com/viewform?formkey=dDljeEhqYnBJUVZ6SU1TckZSbER6R3c6MQ

10:38 [applause]
10 minute break then Tim Ferris.

Tim Ferriss
10:56
David: Author, 4 hour work week
http://www.fourhourworkweek.com/

How to create a global phenomenon.

10:57 [applause]
Good morning.
Thank you all for taking the time.
Hopefully this will contribute to your projects.
How many from outside US [most]
How many clear on approach [some]
How many could pitch the NY Times.
I was working on good/bad pitches this morning.

Cause driven human impact.
[slide of children on floor in kindergarten]
Using Wordpress.com - find it fashionable to donate to education
- The Guiding Principle
\"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it's time to pause and reflect.\" - Mark Twain

Taking the most common approach - chances are you are missing some opportunities.

- The 4-hour workweek?
Going to address this right away.
A blessing and a curse since the book came out.
Not the first choice of title.
Was \"Drug dealing for fun and profit\"
Sold business in 2009 - 
Walmart vetoed that title
Used Google Ad-words.
I said, why not use $150 and 1 week.
Escape ... by far, by far above anything else.
Book turned down by 26 out of 27 publishers.
In 35 languages now.
#1 NY Times and has been on the list for 2 years now
#1 WS Journal

Best selling authors different from best writing authors.

Consistent: radio and blogs
Books fail or stick 1-2 weeks on best seller lists.
TV, radio preserved poorly
Online suggestions can appreciate over time (blogs)

Goals:
20,000 \"earlyvangelists\" from Reis lean startup, also Steven Blank
- \"Surround sound\" effect
Suggestion: Read \"1,000 True Fans\"
http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2008/03/1000_true_fans.php
If you choose first customers well, you don't have to do any more marketing.

Data is King
http://www.crazyegg.com/home2
Shows click patterns on your site
I post - not 6 times before noon.
I post sometimes every 3-5 weeks.
Top 15 refers.
I've only selected - Google.de
Tim's fav's - germans were really interested
Look at search traffic - US does not care about my favorites

You can get data very easily.
When it comes to analytics. Engineers underestimate the value
of data that can be easily obtained.

Three tipping points
- Indirect
- Direct
- Meta

If you sent to top blogs - response is likely to be zero.
Way you get around that - looked at top blogs for demographic
looked at blog rolls - not just the most trafficed, but the thought leaders.
One was Brian. Very smart guy. Did podcast together.
Not as much traffic as 43 Folders. But podcast then cascaded.
Don't forget to target the thought leaders as opposed to just the traffic leaders

MIT trained materials engineer. Beautifully packaged tools,
stick on teeth - touch point. Has 70% success rate.
Told him (he was going to spend $60K on PR firm)
go after the design blogs - everything else will take care of itself.
Most movements start in white collar, affluent and then spread.

Scobleizer. Robert is a tech blogger. Used to work at Microsoft.
Ended up meeting him through his wife. Taking the indirect approach. When he said, \"I'm taking this on my weekend ...\"
put on Amazon for days
Interview on TV - only 3 hours
Back to how I met Scoble. To have idea work - get really good at sales. Went to CES. Never went to CES. Stayed at bloghaus
Where people went to get blasted.
In tech world, Robert always had people around him.
So I talked to people who were bored - spouses. Talked to his wife.
She said, \"Talk to Robert and have him put you on his schedule.\"
Most have back story like that and it can be engineered not accidental.

Meta.
Micro persuasion.
Launch itself became media worthy.
Snuggie - has done $400 m in sales - that's the media.
So they continue to sell 100s of m.
Good non-profits - design becomes 
Donors Choose

Is this making some sense?

So
- Sell around the product
PPC: Phenomenize, Polarize, and Communitize

No one wants to write a book review.
If you can do a few things well, you can inject yourself into the
conversation.
Media loves trends.
Generally - 3 people is a trend.
3 case studies. NY, Chicago (or any where in midwest), California.
Unleash into popular lexicon.

My book could have been put in time management, boring areas.
100s of websites dedicated to lifestyle.
Goal was to inject - Jay Leno ...

If you have any strong opinion that is informed. Can inject.
\"From Geek to Freak ...\" nothing to do with book. Done in 2005, saved it. First to hit Digg.com.
If you do that properly, can get 20-30 visitors a second.
First that brought people to my blog.

Retention - I encouraged people who wanted that group to create it themselves
Once there(at my blog), get them into a community.
Create support within NING
several dozen created within 72 hours.
Platforms will be made easier - self sustaining.
Apply your unique abilities in other areas.

Very simple changes with profound effects.

This is a blog post.
Any guesses for how long a post should be.
: 200 words
: 500?
Good guesses. Answer is. Test it. 500-750.
This one is 15 pages long.
The reason it worked - people need to get idea.
I put \"total read time - highlights\"

Something missing. The date.
Bias to new.
If you remove the date - you get double digit increase.
Simple, 1/2 lines of code. 
Increase time spent by 20%.
If startup not generating a lot of traffic - if you can double your page views, CPM-based, just doubled your revenue.

Twitter - man hours to drive people to website.
If you put up \"Follow us\" gives people place to EXIT your site.
Don't give people an excuse to leave your site.

by changing 'Categories' to 'Topics' - improved click through 20%. TEST IT ALL.

- METRICS IN ONE PAGE
1. Measure the fewest thing possible 
2. A/B tests to produce meaningful changes
3. Vanity metrics -> actionable metrics
4. Create a feedback culture.

Steps: Acquisition, Retention, Referral

Cost per acquisition (CPA)
ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) + Lifetime Value (LV)
Viral coefficient

LitLiberation
Non profit. First campaign I did. Helped 250,00. Not 1 billion.
Surprised how fast things scale when you pass 1 million.
Bratislava built for $100.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bratislava

Donors Choose.org
I'm on their national advisory board.
I took $30K. Chopped. Fed coupons back.
Took that, added another 20% on it.
If you can redistribute what you have already done
and increase 20% thats \"pretty fucking awesome\"

Twitter
www.slinkset.com
www.evernote.com
Google moderator

- Video and Photos
Blog - specific, media general.

How to \"Peel\" hard-boiled egg - viewed 4 m times.
One take wonder.
Text under the video.
If you do not host own video -
If there is no way to capture those people on YouTube - add more, people will link to the post, not YouTube.

How to Be Jason Bourne: - most popular post on StumbleUpon
cheapest qualified traffic - 
more than FaceBook and Twitter combined after taking out 3rd party apps.

Search by creative commons - never pay for stock photo ever again.

- Comments. 
Zero tolerance. Delete novels, idiots.
In terms of reader quality - smartsheet - top 20/30 tech blogs,
I was #1 on that list.
Broken Window theory - how NY City was resurrected.
It was observed that if you allow something very small to become prevalent - prevent little things from the very beginning.

Gyminee
Really simple.
Remember testing.
Not blog specific.
Here is the FOLD - at 15 inch monitor here.
Despite mistakes -- 
have to have blog - be sure you are not taking people there FROM your most valuable property. Should be other way around.

Reduce clickable elements.
Took OUT entire navigation bar - improved 21.1% in test.
Conversion from landing - 
People have to complete the sign up process.

Google website optimizer.
Zilch (book)
I contacted optimizer people - I have this startup - could be a great case study. Could do a case study on the blog. They said sure thing. Got high-end consultancy - gave 2 person team a team of 15 people for split-testing their site.
Led to another 16% improvement.

This is where they ended up - ended up selling.
That's a case of reduction - really simple things.
Take sign up button - making it a different color and sticking it in the middle of the page. Works really well.

Different example.
Posterous
One of fastest web hosting. More blogging.
You write. They put it up. It looks pretty.

When I came - no credibility indicator.
And this - \"Who's it for?\"

How will I use it.
Very few address this well.
When you rolled over - asked question, gave benefits.
For top 4/5 demographics.
Give 1/2 benefits.

Took afternoon to do. 
Led, over time to 80%+ conversion.
Needs doing a down round, selling ... 
Faster way to 1 bn.

Last for profit example:
shopify
e-commerce.
Build stores. Very simply, cheaply.
Signup to righthand side. Same color.
Now changed - moved credibility testimonial, cnet.
Sponsors moved up. Made signup different color.
Infographic showing where things moved.
Took marquee customers, moved them to the top.
Fewer options for what to click on - focus on Sign Up Now

Competition - search
www.fourhourblog.com
http://www.fourhourworkweek.com/blog/
Built 1000 companies.
some pulling in $300,000 per month, $500,000 per month.

- Plan Big.
BUT test your assumptions.

Basics of basics.

Doing the unthinkable
is easier than you think.

That's it guys.
What we are going to do. Take 5 min break.
Come back, we'll do Q&A.
11:40
[applause]

Notes from Steve:
The 4-hour work week
http://www.amazon.com/4-Hour-Workweek-Escape-Live-Anywhere/dp/0307353133

The Guiding Principle:
Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority; it's probably time to think and reflect about what you are doing!

Book was turned down by 26 out of 27 publishers.

The assumptions:
consistent suggestions: radio blogs, most stuff doesn't make it

The goal:
20,000 earlyvangelists in 2 weeks
\"surround sound\" effect
Suggestion: Read \"1,0000 True Fans\"
http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2008/03/1000_true_fans.php

Data is King
7am and 6pm PST on Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday.

Sometimes data that is easily obtained can be extremely valuable, technical people sometime underestimate this

1) Indirect
2) Direct
3) Meta

Brian Oberkirch...
http://www.brianoberkirch.com/

43 folders
http://www.43folders.com/

Robert Scoble:
http://scobleizer.com/

Sell around the product
PPC --> Phenomenize, Polarize, Communitize
Lifestyle design

From Geek to Freak: How I Gained 34 lbs of muscle in 4 weeks
http://www.fourhourworkweek.com/blog/2007/04/29/from-geek-to-freak-how-i-gained-34-lbs-of-muscle-in-4-weeks/

Get satisfaction
http://getsatisfaction.com/

Blog post should be around 500 to 750 pages... but can be longer if you get people's attention early on.
Remove the date, put it at the bottom...

Metrics in one page
1) measure the fewest things possible 80//20
2) a/b tests optimize me to produce meaningful changes.
3) vanity metrics (if you don't know don't speculate) --> actionable metrics (stick to actionalbe metrics)
4) create a feedback culture.

steps: acquition, retention, referral

cost per acquisition (CPA)
ARPU + Lifetime Value (LV)
Viral coefficient (10 new : 10 orig = > 1)

first giving:
http://www.firstgiving.com/

donars chose:
http://www.donorschoose.org/

slinkset
http://slinkset.com/

google moderator
http://www.google.com/moderator/#0

weight loss: (remove negativity)
http://www.fourhourworkweek.com/blog/2007/04/06/how-to-lose-20-lbs-of-fat-in-30-days-without-doing-any-exercise/

Gyminee
http://dailyburn.com/workout_programs

The question people always ask when they goto your site is... How will I use it?
Keep the UI design very simple and straight forward....

11:53 This is open forum.
If you would like to talk specifics.

Q: Crazyegg. We use Google analytics.

Google analytics - so many numbers, some don't mean very much.
Tool coming out - kissmetrics. Created by same people as CrazyEgg.
Kiss metrics type - changes of certain credible threshold.
Checking google - uniques jump 50% you need to know why that happened.
Google gives you the data.
Other recommendation - at least once a month, look at top 100 refers.
NY Times linking from personal blogs - potential impact, if followed up on were huge.
Followed up with these journalists.
If you get to any certain critical mass - say 100,000 out of 200,000.
Direct - google searches.

Q: Clear that having a book is powerful tool.
Self publish?

I think it is becoming more feasible,
challenge is.
I worked with publisher for second book.
Question whether will work with third.
Near impossible to get distribution
http://www.perseusbooksgroup.com/perseus/home.jsp

Big 6 publishers in NY are filters.
Publisher 
Room to Read
Leaving Microsoft to Change the World
Just built 10,000th library in developing world
Look at 
Three Cups of Tea
Central Asia Society - not run very well.
Grameen Bank - had traction before they wrote the book
Model, proven scalable.
Most people overestimate the ability to scale.
When I work with startups. They want cover of NY Times.
What I would say, they have net for catching fish, conversions suck.
Wasted time/effort.
Get tight net - convert well.Digg.
Load testing.
This is key.
Mimic the effect of a digg hit on your server, 30-40 requests a second.
Book can be useful.
A degree of legit.

I did have a UStream. Sethi. Very savvy on-line. Pros/cons.
Search self publishing in my blog.

Q: You are working with startups but what advice would you give to tradtional big companies?

For larger companies to develop on-line.
Couple things:
First, humans like people. They don't like company names.
Brands vs communication.
For most companies.
Got pitch from very famous car company, 
You are one of four people to track day. Go 150 mph.
OK, fine. Why not.
Then they said, All we ask is that you promote $5K to charity.
\"Remember it is all for charity. Your friend \x3ccompany name>\"
You are trying to get traffic to a car website.
you don't have to hide your motives.
Say - we're trying to get publicity, and help. I would have said yes.

Blogs are where the money is. Picking blogs the right way can have a great effect.

Other cardinal sin: especially people who come from big companies and go to startups.
Men's Health. 1.2 m person readership.
Dentist's office = 6 people.
Say, 700,000 peope at newstand.
My blog has that many uniques a month.
If someone pitches Men's Health. 
They write, \"Please give us PR. Thanks.\"

Side note.
I love languages.
In English, \"It is all Greek to me.\"
In Greece, \"It is all Chinese to me.\"

When you send a bad pitch to a blogger.
You could buy yourself an enemy who could do you a lot of harm.
Tucker Max.
Go there to be really offended. Very rude.
Strong audience. several 100,000
Turned down violently by a publisher.
\"You are an abhorrent little man\"
Get's e-mail from same publisher, \"Dear Mr. Max ...
You are an influencer in your community.
...
If you could share this with your friends and admirers ...
Took that entire email - with cell phone - feel free to let her know what you think.
You've got to be smart. Don't be stupid.

A bit of a rant.
Major mistake people make.

Blogs vs front page? I'd take blogs.

Making friends with bloggers.
Elaborate.
E-mail is crowded.
Phone, second most crowded, generally hated.
In person is easiest.
Spent $25,000 on book launch.
Rest - flying to conferences.
If you have to put in 100 hours - just buy the ticket.
You don't have to get drunk.
Engineering folks like to have a few drinks.
Friends I made are still friends today.
Popular blogs.
Hang out.
Talk about everything EXCEPT what you are doing.
My general approach - go to organizer of conference.
Had not read any blogs before deciding to use blogs for the launch.

Asked, who should I talk to?
Walk up - at a bar later.
They are in a conversation.
Then you stand there. Ask a lot of questions.
Finally, so, Who the hell are you?
You say, \"I'm working on my first book ...\"
Give them a teaser.
At end of the night - you might, maybe, like this chapter ...
might find it kind of cool.
That's exactly what I did. 
NEVER hard selling.
I don't think I ever asked anybody.

Here is the way to write a pitch e-mail.
Assume you are writing to NY Times.
First lines - all credibility.
Material scientist working at MIT.
What we are doing is effective.
Been reading your stuff, great.
Title, three bullet points.
Q&A - how we mfg.
Make their job really easy - 
If you want on Oprah - which I would not recommend.
Using this particular example, \"Speech Buddy\"
Go find somebody who can talk Speech Pathology -
expert they can interview.
Family in midwest - teary human interest bit.
Then alternative - crappy product.
Then you are 1 in the mix.
Geeky dudes trying to fix speech for kids - you will get on TV.

I would say invest the money in meeting the person.
OR
the other way
Start off by addressing niche blogs.
Smaller - die line - all packaging.
Get one bit of exposure.
Mat Kuts (?)
Start with lint ball. Can only pick up paperclips.
Then bricks
Then houses.
Then planets.

Can expand scope. 
Start off very niche.

If you can point to design blog.
Infinitely easier to get on.

Q: Book called 4 hour work week. E-mail once a week.
Checked e-mail 100 times.

Got e-mail - I have an assitant who checks my e-mail from a winery.

Are we doing it the wrong way?
No problem with hard work if applied to right things.
Apply time.
If you are responding things.
Allowing other people's agenda for your time.
If you have highest ratio of input to output.
Every startup i'm helping is \"burning the candle at both ends\".
You can be effective,
efficient,
or spin your wheels most of the time.

Reason CIA, NSA people talk to me=
want to eliminate wasteful effort.
That is the underlying theme.

Q: Planning / setting up own events.
Which is more effective? 

I've thrown parties. 100s of people. Soon 1000s.
If you do own event, attracting people already converted.
Events are hard to do.
To do well, not cheap.
Friends run Summit Series.
Had Bill Clinton. 
If they wanted to add a coffee break, another $10,000.

I just say, \"I'll do a panel.\" 
Just a lot less work.
It takes so much effort to build an event.
Let other people handle that business.
Piggybacking is best way to go.

Eric: Blogs / media - cool in rich world.
Here we are very much about impacting entire globe.
People not on internet. How could this group here have impact in non-high-tech fields.

#1 internet access
#2 higher up income scale.
Two things - focus on the more affluent people is not a bad way to reach those people.
Charitywater
Going after actors - using first world mainstream celebrity to address poverty line and below.
Other, self evident, focus on mobile.
Spent time in South Africa. Shantytowns will have smart phones in 12 months.
Friend of mine is working in big pharma - hand held diagnostic tools using iPhone - attaching hardware devices.
Address users directly through mobile.
Can be used in tandem.

Bryce: In Bay area - two categories - SV and SF.
SF people like to talk about things not related, at all about startups.
Mountain View - that is what people talk about.
You've turned that into an asset.
Not just boys talking about the latest Zynga game.

How do you turn diversifying your interests into an asset.

Rock climbers who still run startup.
Shoreline - 24/7 about startups.
Same in SF, just more distractions.
Use competitive advantage.
Work 24/7 is not scalable.
Organizational? - physical endurance matters.
Periodizing. Scheduled way to decompress. You will be able
to outwork. Yet to see that not be the case.
There are people who work 24/7 . the Lance Armstrong. Complete mutants. They do exist. Never crash.
Physical recovery. Brain is an organ.
Diversity. David is better to talk to about this.
With 15 startups- if identity is as VP of Eng and that is it.
If something happens outside their control, say
startup goes south. Then their self-image goes south.
A \"Dow-Jones-er\"

David Rose: If I was ONLY Angelsoft - with ups and downs, I would have gone nuts.
Be a well rounded person.
Seen it over and over again.
We can end it here and I will join you for lunch. 
Breakouts with groups - totally happy. Have to edit my book this week.
When I work, I sprint.
Will make plans to come back.
In meantime, lunch.
12:29 [applause]

David Rose: Finance, build phenomenon. Run over to have lunch.
Half hour. Run back and at 1:15 under NDA the Angelsoft case study.
At 2:15, will fly back to NY.
[applause]

[end]

Sofya's Notes (pasted from email):

Assumptions:
consistent suggestions: radio and blog
most books fail or stick 1-2 weeks
online can appreciate with time

the goal:
20,000 earlyvangelists in 2 weeks (10,000/week of tech-savvy young males)
\"surround sound\" effect
suggestion: read \"1,000 true fans\" (article)

*if you get the proper 1,000 people, then you'll get the rest of the people and you won't have to keep \"pushing the merry go round\"

DATA IS KING
* use crazyegg.com to analyze traffic (it's free) check your top referers, where they come from, what they're looking at
don't underestimate data just because it's easily obtained

THREE TIPPING POINTS
indirect, direct, and meta.

1) Indirect:
target the top 50 most trafficked blog and email them, you'll have a response of zero most likely, BUT
which blogs does my demographic read? read the blog rolls of THOSE blogs (thought leaders for traffic-leaders) 

or for example, go after design audience when you have a nicely designed product, eg

2) Direct
Eg, Robert Scoble and Scobleizer.com. Put Tim's book on Amazon top 5 for 3 hrs, vs. being on TV spot, only got him #12 for 3 hrs
Online COUNTS. Sales, you gotta get good at them. That's the reality. Tim went to Consumer Electronics Sales conference. Went to BlogHaus to get drunk with bloggers. Robert is popular and gets harrassed by everybody. So he talked to the very bored people, eg. spouses and partners, and got to him indirectly. You CAN Engineer success like that...

3) Meta
The popularity of the book itself became noteworthy. AKA the Snuggy phenomenon only blew up due to media blowup. Turn the marketing ITSELF into the buzz. DonorsChoose, CherryWater, etc, their ability to use celebrity power is also important.

SELL AROUND THE PRODUCT
to get the required exposure, use \"PPC\"
P-phenomenize
media and the broader public loves trends, so one person is an excpetion, two people is interesting, three is a trend. If you can get NY, Chicago, and California....you've got coverage. Get into the popular lexicon! Tim's book could have been pigeon-holed into \"life balance\" \"time management\" etc....but instead he positioned it as \"lifestyle management\"

P-polarize
if you have a strong opinion that is reasonably informed, use it to your advantage
eg, Tim did this body study, and it got picked up by Digg, not abotu the book at all, but launched WITH the book

C-communitize
bring people to the funnel, get them to stick around, retention
get people to make their own communities based on your OWN theme.....aka \"4-hr work week for christian mothers\"....let people evangelize your meme! and make them self-sustaining=SCALE!

SAMPLE FINDINGS
blogmetrics
how long should a blog post be to get read the most and passed around? apparently, it's no more than 750 words max, 500-750 is the general rule. HOWEVER, people need to get the point quickly, so explain how long the piece really is \"5 minute overview, 45 minute total\" on your posts.
OMIT the date, because there's a bias towards new new new.....so readership goes up like 20%

if you're spending money on a website, dont' give people immediate exits from your site aka, \"follow us on FB, follow us on Twitter\" until you make a lot of money
Switch from \"categories\" to \"topics\" 
TEST TEST TEST!

1) measure the fewest things possible (80/20)
2) A/B tests to produce meaningful changes
3) vanity metrics --> actionabale metrics (total uniques went up, great, but actionable is \"per user\" based, number of pages/ returns etc) see: Eric Reese
4) create a feedback culture that ensures quality

Steps: acquisition, retention, referral

(Media efficiency ratio=for each dollar, if you make 1.50 for the costs, you will keep making money)

cost per acquistiion (CPA)
ARPU + lifetime

HOW I RESEARCH
twitter.com
slinkset.com
evernote.com
google moderator

VIDEO AND PHOTOS
media general: make some video stunts, etc
BUT, if you have text under your video and a link to exit, you're basically giving youtube free traffic, so add some text content that is valuable that you need to BE on the site to access

cheapest traffic is from StumbleUpon. FO' SHO'

Use interesting photos from Flickr, free photo!

COMMENTS
the living room method. Do not tolerate idiots and abuse
so, reader quality: smartsheet.com? rates blogs for quality
social psychologists observed tolerance for small negatives led to worse negatives, so weed them out

EXAMPLE
Gyminee.com
above the fold, the more options you offer users, the lower your conversion will be, so limit the things to click
eg, you don't NEED to have a blog, but if you do, don't take people away from what you need them to do, like sign up
FEATURE credibility indicators
(book called Zilch, read it?)
Google Optimizer agreed to help, many tweaks later
make your sign up button huge and stick it in the middle. DONE

HOW WILL *I* USE IT?
posterous.com, email stuff, it gets put into a blog.
need to have credibility indicator. and add \"WHO IS IT FOR\"? and answer \"HOW WILL I USE IT?\" on the rollover, with benefits

PLAN BIG, but test assumptions.
Doing the unthinkable is easier than you think. 

Q&A
crazyegg vs. googleanalytics?
GA lets you use overlays which is cool, but too many rabbit holes and info
KissMetrics is coming out soon, should be good
at least once a month, look at your top referrers, but also see the small ones-- see where big readers are linking from....big writers from their personal sites could mean huge exposure

what about self-publishing and then using these methods
it's becoming increasingly more feasible, but the challenges are that it's near-impossible to get distribution in retail (PERSEUS--check out) and then to get major media. They use the publisher as a filter (big 6 in NYC). A book is a powerful tool (leaving microsoft to change the world--good book to read)
If you have some traction, if you have a scalable idea, a good startup....you need good conversion when you are attracting a lot of people. DO LOAD TESTING....mimic the effect of having a major Digg moment...don't crash! So why get on TV if you can't handle it anyway? A degree of legitimacy is necessary and hard to achieve. Raveet Sethi convo about self-pub on Tim's blog.

what advice to larger companies that want to develop online strategy?
humans don't like company names....like Apple the brand, but not to be spoken to BY corporations. Don't treat people like idiots and hide your motives--people will see through it. THis is a big mistake that big companies make.
Blogs are where the money is....make them work. 
Big companies and startups also make this mistake: 
\"Mens Health\" has 1.2-1.4 million person readership, probably 700,000 readers on newsstands. Tim's blog has that many uniques a month. If somebody pitches Men's Health, they'll spend a week pitching them, but they'll pitch Tim with an flippant, disrespectful email.
SO: you could actually make yourself more enemies than friends. A blogger is just as worthwhile as a journalist.

What are some of the ways to make friends with bloggers, parties, etc?
email is most crowded way, phone is usually bad too, so in person is the best way to reach them.
$20,000 on PR....18,000 on PR firm at $6,000/month, 2,000 to fly to conferences. Conferences paid off way more for the dollar!
The people Tim became friends with, he's still friends with today. Make real friends, and hang out and talk about things OTHER than your work!! 
Ask your friends, then, \"who do you think I'd get along with here? I don't know anyone, etc.\" Just hang out and ask questions. DON'T HARD SELL and ask for reviews. Find people who are actually interested. How to write pitch emails: first 2-3 lines, establish credibility. They don't care unless they know who's behind your product. Demonstrate the credibility of the work you're doing next. \"I know it's out in left field, but maybe you'd be interested.\" And give them examples of HOW to help you....do the work FOR THEM FIRST, and make it easy. \"This chapter headline might be a good one to add\" or \"mentioning our unique approach yada yada\" Anyway, bottom line is invest money in meeting people. Address small niche blogs and get one bit of exposure. 

how do SU students work only 4 hours/week?
there's no problem working hard as long as it's allocated to something worthwhile, getting max output for you input

making your own event vs. making preexisting events?
events are hard to do and more likely your OWN events will gather people who are already converted. they take a ton of work and money. Let other people build them for you, and go and present or just socialize. More effective.

blogs, social media, tend to be associated w/ people who have internet access, using economies of scale. What about other populations?
focusing on the more affluent people is not a bad way to reach the rest of the world. Focus on mobile.

how do you turn diversifying your interests into an asset?
in MV, convos are ALWAYS about start-ups, in SF, there are just more distractions. So view your diversity as a competitive advantage. work 24/7, for most people, is NOT scalable. You can decompress and you can outwork other people. There are people like the Lance Armstrongs of work, and you can't beat them, but oh well. You need physical recovery and \"identity diversification\" is important! If something happens outside of your control, a change you didn't anticipate, and your company goes south---you went down with your ship because you had nothing else to hold on to.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul12-Jon-Badal-VC-Angel-Discussion
"Monday
7/12/2010
10:00 pm

\"Jon Badal\" \x3cjon.badal@singularityu.org>

VC / Angel Investment Discussion

Y Combinator is a new kind of venture firm specializing in funding early stage startups. We help startups through what is for many the hardest step, from idea to company.
http://ycombinator.com/

Get your startup funded and off the ground while learning from the best.
http://techstars.org/

At betaworks, nimble, loosely connected companies match users, data and content to create superb products, great API's and profitable businesses.

betaworks is bit.ly, chartbeat, socialflow, tweetdeck, twitterfeed, and 
betaworks investments
http://betaworks.com/

10:07 Jon:
Main facts, in general, what you need for angel investment.
Or story.
Current market landscape in '07.
Digest readers.
Other salient point, about 1 billion market in the US.
Comic book stores. Half is their cake.
Dimond distributors takes about 25% of each dollar.
High margin business.
Does not cost much to print and mail comic books.
Rest to resellers. Don't have to pay comic artists crap.
So, 3 guys, late 20s. Hey, interesting opportunity.
Worked at Marvel and other places.
Got this startup started.
Here is the iPad app so you can see it.
So, as I mentioned before.
Three pillared approach to replace Diamond Distributors.
Tools for storefronts.
Website pull for people.
30 page business plan.
How to tackle these three areas.
Built a content website.
Comic book reviews.
From mid '07 to end of year.
Traffic - about 50,000 unique hits a month.
No meaningful revenue.
$1 CPM - with only a few hits, can't make much money.
($1 per 1000 clicks)
Previous job - PC Mag publisher.
Quasi-publishing related play.
General interest in that.
Mid '07, people super optimistic.
So, gave out pitch to 20-30 odd individuals and finally got some people interested.
The - how it ended up working was - one fellow associated with NY Angels was interested in this.
Gave seed funding for this idea.
I can delve into the specifics of how that transaction got done.
Ended with the following terms. 
Reasonable given website with traffic.
Could be built for $1 m.
$1 m valuation.
Give $350,000 and additional if milestones met.
General thoughts on that:
Obviously website with 50,000 hits is not worth $1 m.
Probably worth nothing.
That valuation is driven by -- if lower than that, no ownership left for founders.
Need to be incentivized.
Only give you $350K. Only own 2/3rds of company. Not interesting.
They think of it as an option.
Need salient pitch for other areas.
At the time, these 3 areas -
Looking at pitch back then, kind of BS.
Ad revenue.
that was compelling enough that initial investors pitched in $350K just to see what happens.

People asking about legal issues - incorporate.
Documents involved.
Three types out there 
LLC
S Corp
C Corp
For your guys, be C Corp for following reason.
Other 2 are difficult to issue equity in.
Very specific to e-Trade, I believe.
Standard is Delaware. 
NY, Franchise tax.
Talk about that off-line.

Specifics for $350K investment.
Term sheet:
Outline for what the contract will actually contain
Working document between you and investors
Will eventually become legally binding
Will both sign off at end of negotiations
Ship to lawyers to draft up formally
Investments of this size,
No preferred shares.
Equity.
How preferred shares work, they are preferred over common stock.
In the event of a sale, preferred get their money first.
Lot of variants.
Participating preferred.
Sell co for $5 m.
Owners of participating preferred - $2 m to them.
Remaining $3 m - divided pro-rata. 
Preferred get money back and double dip to get invested stake.

Q: Founders are the preferred or equity/angels?

Almost exclusively for VCs.
Founders are most at risk. 
In event of sale below amount put in by outside investors, they will get nothing.
Even if you sold for $2 m, if investors put in $2 m, you'd get nothing.
Under $1 m, no preferred - instead convertible notes.
Cost: $25-50K in legal fees.
Convertible note is cheaper.
Technically debt, but essentially the same.
Note for $250,000 that will convert to equity when there is qualified financing.
Later, raise $1 m in true Series A.
Discount driven by expected time for next fund raiser.
After 6 months ...
Longer, bigger discount.

Whole host of other documents.
Indemnification.
Health Care co commits fraud.
you are indemnified against this.

Management agreement.

Employment agreement.

Usually have to cough up, about $25K. Notion to build real business.
Do it half-assed, it will kill a deal.
All 20 page fine print documents.
If you are super crafty you know all these nuances.
In general, they don't mean very much.

You'll find a non-compete. CEO can't quit and start own company.
Cost of going after guy violating is so expensive and takes so long, better off to just let it die.

discussion of docs. 
I have all the docs to go over, if you like.
Comixology.

From May '08 when this round was completed. For a full year.
Plugged away at three initiatives.
General improvements to website.
Built set of web-based tools.
Sold to physical stores.
Main issue - for comics, you can't return inventory.
Diamond had no need to take back inventory - they have a monopoly.

iPhone app. Burned through about $200 of $350K.
At the time, only had 3 employees. 2 tech guys. Spent all time building out.
Helped build iPhone app.
If notion to do that, that is burn rate you'd expect.
You would not get fancy office and bring in more people.
Lot o in more people.
Lot of subcontractors and consultants.
Main reason: in general, remain as lean as possible until you have reached inflection point.
If you keep raising money, you'll get diluted to nothing.

Plugging along '09 to mid '09. Launched iPhone app. Had minimal initial attraction.
2000 downloads first week.
Started selling, $50 first week.
$200 sold next week.
Started ramping up.
No other players.
By end of the year, '09, had developed moderate amount of traction by tweaking their app.
continued to bring on small independent publishers.

Still around $10,000 sales per month. Burn at that point is $25-30K. Still burning cash at significant clip. Nowhere near sustainable. No interest for another VC round.
Had achieved milestones.
Need to bring in money.
With burn, close to running out of money.
Went to do a follow on.
This brought in additional $250K. And a bit more money.
You can renegotiate.
Interesting. Not amazing.
Warrants bringing in additional money.

Brought in NY Angels. Do an expanded round. Raised $450K.
True series A.

The closeout money, January this year. Had some general interest from Marvel Comics.
Pause it there.

Q: How the structure changed after each round.

First tranche was a convertible note.
This was also used for second tranche.
With negotiation of additional money, certain milestones.
Part of a convertible note.

Q: Take 5% of company?

Yes. Slightly higher valuation. Follow on of $450K was at a higher price.

Q: What does that mean?

Higher valuation?

Q: $1 m to something else?

$1.5 m. Rationale for that is. $1 m premoney, with $350K, should be worth $1.35 m

Q: So additional equity?

By end of transaction, 50% held by outside investors. 50% held by founders.

Q: What is desirable state?

You target 20% stake for initial investment. Want to avoid getting too diluted later on.

Q: Why?

Driven by the math. You are anticipating later rounds of investment. Later investors will also take a piece of the company. Don't want to take so much that others can't enter. Don't want to take too little, since 5% is just a small piece.

Q: 

Each round effects everybody else.

Q: Usually cash injection - in order not to be diluted, they have right to participate.

Yeah. So with conversion notes, you get a set percent of series A round, at a discount.

For dilution in general, a number of situations:
1/ option pools. Very important. Basically given to later employees to incentivize them to get a piece of the action.

Q: You

Create options out of thin air.
Polite to do dilution before next round.
Create 20% pool before next offering round.
In addition to that is 
2/ anti-dilution clauses given to outside investors to prevent against the following situation.
$2 m invested. Another investor comes in with $500,000 when company is doing much less. You get super crammed down:
If down round, weighted average to reset price paid for it. Paid $10. Now it is $5. Change it to $7.5
OR full ratchet. Now at $5. So I get it at $5. Twice as many shares. Bad thing. Would scare off later investors. Later investor gets diluted because you get more shares.

Q: For SU option - 1% non-dilutive to SU. As VC, which would you prefer.

Depends on company. Situation.
doing startup = realistically believe could be $20 m company.
Probably not raise more than $1 m of outside capital.
If you invest more, not enough potential upside for outside investor.
Done in 2 rounds.
Friends and family kick in $100K.
Second round for $900K.
Would want to have a non-dilutive 1%.
Value entity at $400K - 20% dilution with that.
5% ownership stake becomes a 4%, once it has been diluted.
Do $900K at $3 m pre. Let's just say another 25% dilution of that 4% - becomes 3%.
So you can give 3% versus 1%.
Quick swag calculation.
Unless you have a company you could realistically sell for $100 m bucks.
That's how I'd think of it.

Q: Depends on valuation at the time you give the 5% away.

Haven't seen the true documentation of the 1% and the 5%.

Q: No one has.
Q: It may not exist.

More?
Q: The story.

So, quick story: they get Marvel to distribute. Before just had indies.
Close to 2010. End of 2009. Interested in eBooks.
Real interest is in killing Diamond Distributors - doesn't have an e-Book strategy.
Now, and for next couple years, no meaningful revenue from eBooks.
Deal - any startup can license Marvel comics, just pay $150K fee.
Great. You get a free $1 m from all the startups there.
Until you have complement of digital comics, you'd have to sell $3 m in digital - which has happened now.
Official Marvel - very different reception. Good comic book app. Number of players in the space. Good to have meaningful brand names. 
You feel uncomfortable relative to Marvel.
Took off like hotcakes.
Very much so.
The did $400K. Sorry $250K in first month. continued building off there.
Then DC. Into fold. More money.
Now $500K.
Closing out $1 M per month. Becoming very interesting. Trying now to raise serious VC capital. 
After Apple takes piece. About 25% left over.
What is that $200K of cash coming in. They have additional expenses. Bringing in $50K a month in profit. Interesting amount. Can continue cruising as you are.
To make a new move in this space - say Android in 3 months - would take $500K.

Would like to raise $4 M at $16 M valuation.
Raises new issues.
Given their current traction, might be viable. 
But what is upside?
$1 bn comic sales stateside.
Japan is locked up.
Potential market - $1 bn.
That ends up being relatively small market for $16 M price.
Become $200 M company in 5 years? Much tougher sell. Personally, I think that is BS.

General flavor of how the process works.

Interest in doing a particular thing.
Can help with those.
Define market opportunity.
Cut it.
One on one or in small groups.
Alex: Or by mail?
Sure.

Emem: When do you stop raising money?
When do you stop talking?

Talking from entrepreneur's perspective, in general you want to maximize your profit in the event of a sale. Typical exit.
Balance between dilution and value of additional money.
Investors will always give you more money, but you would end up with such a small stake, you'd get nothing.
Would be nice to raise money, but instead continue to eat Ramen, and bootstrap.

Sell now, make $3 m. Or continue riding to make $10 m. Or that could blow up and you'd lose everything.
Investors always say, keep riding it. It is profit maximizing. 
It may make sense to sell at much lower price.
$3 m means a lot to me. Marginal benefit of $10 m is not worth risking everything.

I can talk endlessly about mundane details.

Quick evaluation of an idea.
Break down market opportunity.
Alex: Opposite of philosophy - 

don't go to VCs at all. Totally contingent on particular market.
Most internet businesss. Bajillion entries.
Initial costs are really low.
Everything I invest in, look at 5 all doing the same thing. Pick best one.
In those circumstances, if you think you've got the right mix, try to control the entire market. Only if you have the money to clear everybody else.

Deals do not get made.
Number of companies ready to turn down VC - 
FourSquare
...
about 3-4 per year.
Very few people can do that.
Nah, I don't like the terms.
Don't go in with that mindset.
VCs are all friends with each other.
I see an idea I think is kind of interesting. I will always ask all the other VCs.
What do you think?
Anything I am actually doing - I will ask.
Vast majority of investments are shared with other investors.
Rose only invests when others are on board.
Not ballsy enough to take naked investment.
Always want others to invest alongside them.
Not courageous enough in their convictions.
Also benefits to that because, eventually, say company needs 4 rounds of capital.
For exit of $200 m or more, not that uncommon.
If you are a seed stage guy, making $1 m investments.
Don't have $20 m.
social networks as well.
Pass the baton to them.

Q: Would you be able another time to walk through Getaround?

Yes, absolutely do that.
I can talk about them since I've heard their pitch.
In process of raising now/ closing.
Can't give super juicy details.
All the specifics of their deals.

I can go into hyperdetail since I am an investor in comixology. I can show you MY docs.
Not RTV docs. 
http://rose.vc/
Don't share notes with everybody else.
Prepared to by hyper-frank.

11:03

Investors looking at 30x return.
company needs to grow to certain size to be worth my time.

11:15
50% of VC funds will die in this cycle.

Ron Conway.
Angel seed fund.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Conway

David Rose
All his own money.
http://www.rose.vc/

Smart guys have halved their fund sizes for internet stuff.

For cleantech - still need megafunds.

Used to be first angels, then VCs. All start playing in early stage.
For seed - be very careful who you get it from.
Here's $100K. For 5% stake. They treat it as an option.
Biggest issue is when they pass on series A.
They are fluffing out small checks.
VC will only invest in one out of 10 of those things.
Can be kiss of death.
Be sceptical of certain seed stage VC funds, particularly if they don't specialize.

first round capital - in their core.
http://www.firstround.com/

Outside capital - non trivial part of money is from the VC partners.

11:23
Sorry this is not an exciting this, per se.
Never covered in talks because it is so boring.
Hours and hours of nuance for each thing.
Can have extended talks.

Alex: What kind of questions by mail?

In general, always welcome to e-mail me your pitch deck.
After end of summer, won't guarantee you'll get input.
Until end of summer, I will go into mind numbing detail with you guys.
Powerpoint of what - 15 min presentation to an investor - all important facts about company.
I can tear through that with you.
That should be your home document.
I don't read business plans - maybe only if we are truly interested in investing.
We don't look at them.

Alex: Like resumes.

Much more worth my time. Not expert on business idea.
Can do 30 second skim.

Alex: 3 minutes to say something.

For first engagement - one sentence what company is. What the heck you are doing and how far into it.
Then 3 sentences.
Then 3 min conversation.
Then 15 min pitch level.
Should cover 4 things I talked about in detail.
VC guys will do back of the head calculations and tear through stuff super fast.
Can pull a pitch deck - why good, why bad
3-5 year projections why BS for 50 different reasons.
Always say revenues will take off when you invest.
If so, you could have held out for 3 more months.
Whole art of gaming.
VC guys get really good at that. Always pass along. Pass the baton. At certain point, become entrepreneur.
I know how to massage numbers and he knows how to massage numbers.

Vincent: ITunes U.
Amazing people talking.

Jon: Over course of summer, you will get good general advice. I tried to cover the details of what you would not be told. Management rights contract. 

I think my recommendation if truly serious, walk through salient points.

General definition of your market.

Q: How available are you?

About 50% of the time. Probably be here for the next few weeks.
11:32 [applause]

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Aug5-Framing-and-Public-Policy
"Thurs, August 5, 9 am - 12 noon

Framing and Public Policy PLE B.20 Viente 

Alaeddine Mokri
Alexandru Celac
Alison Lewis
Andrew Fursman
Connor Dickie

David Wyler
Emiliano Kargieman
Emma Brooke
Gary Gautier
Hind Ahmed
-
Juan Lopez
Julielynn Wong
Kausar Samli
Kidist Zeleke
Luca Escoffier

Maggie Jack
Sam Thorp
San Ko
Santiago Bilinkis
Sasah Grujicic
-
Sharon Niv
Tigist Ashenaffi
Valentina Margaria
Vincent Daranyi

24 Students

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Aug2-Millennium-Project
"
Mon, August 2, 9 am - 12 noon

2020 Global Energy Scenarios by The Millennium Project EES/FSF B.20 Viente 
583C

Jerry Glenn
Slides: http://bit.ly/b9J5ZW
Jose Cordeiro
Slides: http://bit.ly/aOTTJu

Aaron Kemmer
Alaeddine Mokri
Alexandru Celac
x Anders Hvid
x Candice Berezan

Chiara Turelli
David Wyler
Dhaval Chadha
Dmitriy Tseliakhovich
Elizabeth Brook
-
X Emem Andrew
Erez Livneh
x Eric Ezechieli
Erika Anderson
x Eugenie Rives

x Francesco Galietti
Gary Gautier
Hind Ahmed
Jason Dunn
x John Graves
-
x Juan Martinez-Barea
Julian Ugarte
x Kausar Samli
Marko Bitenc
x Matthew Kern

Rand Hindi
San Ko
Tyler Kratz

28 Students

x = 9:07 am, 9 students
X = 9:10 am
Jose
Ken
John Chisholm
Karen Aiken, Building Bridges Strategies & Communications
karen_aiken@mac.com

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerome_C._Glenn

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_wheel

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Project
http://www.millennium-project.org/

The Millennium Project was founded in 1996 after a three-year feasibility study with the United Nations University, Smithsonian Institution, Futures Group International, and the American Council for the UNU. It is now an independent non-profit global participatory futures research think tank of futurists, scholars, business planners, and policy makers who work for international organizations, governments, corporations, NGOs, and universities. The Millennium Project manages a coherent and cumulative process that collects and assesses judgments from over 2,500 people since the beginning of the project selected by its 35 Nodes around the world. The work is distilled in its annual \"State of the Future\", \"Futures Research Methodology\" series, and special studies.

9:16 Jose: Good morning
Theodore Gordon
Herman Kahn
Jerry Glenn - U of Mass, just back from Korea
Korean Industrial Association 
Fantastic recognition award - the CEO participants - pivotal contributions to the Korean economy
Also, Peace Corp in Africa.
Workshop - Jerry and I will talk about Global Energy for 2020.
Split into groups. Coffee break 10:45.
Will present \"State of the Future\" collective intelligence

9:19 [applause]
Raise your hands for question.
- Millennium Project
Basically and idea. 
We needed a think tank on behalf of humanity.
WHO for health
World Bank for economica
Nothing for human family future.
Put together by NGOs, governments, corporations.
Should be influenced and be able to act through those organizations
- May become a TransInstitution.
Representatives for many, but not a majority of any one.
Value added goes to all, but not a majority of any one.
Need to be clever about politics, 

Tech, economic - but not enough governance.

Q: I would think that religion also needs to be included.

Didn't do that, couldn't figure out how to hold it together.
Religion says, \"I'm right and everyone else is wrong.\"
I couldn't figure out how to do that.

Just died, head of Suni Islam.
Elenaor Massini.
I just couldn't figure out yet how to have religion in it without
ripping the system apart.
But thank you for the question.

- 35 Millennium Project Nodes
A node -
You get like-minded.
Intersect networks.
Each node should have people from institutional categories.
Pick who knows most about
Energy
Governance
etc.

- Global Energy Scenarios.
Business as Usual
Env Backlash
High Tech
Political Turmoil

- Seq that created the scenarios
1. Bibliography
100 page document, State of the Future
Looks like book, is a management technique.
Should be cumulative process
7,000 page document on CD-ROM
2. Delphi round 1 - data collection and ratings
Had four scenario headings. All variables down side.
What is energy consumption for business as usual.
Download it, play with it. Nice little model.
3. International futures input
4. Wrote first draft ..

- Env Backlash
In two ways: 
From nature - insects changing habitats. Very serious
Desertification accelerated. Salt water levels go up.
Bangladesh - more rain, salt water coming in

People - env movement. Has been dormant.
Wakes up and gets vicious.
- Trigger. India Ocean accident - galvanizes env movement
- Env friendly politicians elected
- UN scientists set measures / standards
- env viability for life support no longer assured
- climate change conviction 
cigarette precedent - 
apply to energy companies - who manipulated information? Exxon
WWF and maybe Greenpeace and other, did study
What % of GHG is from Exxon - 1%?

Q: Studies are important to find something out.
Things that Greenpeace or Exxon do are not studies.

Swiss Re. They reinsure. They have the responsibility for
knowing for sure what they have to pay for in climate change.
They do some very good futures work.
Imagine taking Exxon to court. I and others have made that
aware around the world. 
Exxon is now largest investor in algae around the world.
Leading investor in \"being green\"
May get a profit.

Eric: How much as a percent of total business?

$600 m
But darn good investment.
Eric: Same BP did.
BP was more general.
This is very targetted. Went to Craig Venter.
So, one thing that happens in this scenario -
all get lawsuits.

- Range of eco-terrorism, geo engineers
- more expensive energy, food, water
- climate change is slowed, but not reversed
- env migration increases
Water tables are falling around the world.
10,000 people depend on well - when it goes dry, people must move
When people move where others live - turmoil
- End of env backlash - hit value. Start of high tech ...

- Political Turmoil
Al Queda 3.0, two or three things at once
Dirty bombs in Paris, New York and shipping area all at once.
Without recovery, difficult
Env backlash PLUS political turmoil
- Caucasus pipelines down, Armenians-Azerbaijani
No more pipelines
- NW China civil war. pan-Islamic movement
- East China Sea conflicts

Q: NW China - least promising place for Islamic - find it very difficult to imagine.

Good. Homework assignment for you.
Ugurs
Q: I spent time in NW.
In political turmoil, the ability to handle a variety of conflicts simultaneously is damaged.

Q: Anyone remember Tibet 50 years ago.
They signed the UN charter.
This is a scenario.
You can delete that part if you want to.
Al Queda - becomes more sophisticated, joins organized crime.
Coordinated as not before.
NW China may have dirty bombs.
[sigh]
Uranium smuggled in lead containers.

Q: Romans. 
Americans have civil rights ..

I'm saying some money of Al Queda goes into that area.

- Conflict over N Pole.
Go back a decade. Standard military posture of Russia included this. It said, \"this is the next conflict\"
Test for human beings. Everybody knows this. If we don't prevent this, shame on us.

- Nigerian Instability continues
OK, so imagine what is going on - whole lot more money going through. Another Crimean[?] war.

Emem: US removed cap - when you sue people - $75 m.
Bring all oil spill losses to the US.
Like Gulf - we have 10 of those every years.
Military gov't killed guy. Son came to US and settled for $10 m.

Few separatist movements of Islam.
Do the older north see themselves as quasi-Islam.

Emem: Christians in south.

Purpose of scenarios is not to speak the truth, but to uncover the
unknowns of the unknowns.

Emem: Probability - 10%

What is probability of all these? 0%.
What is the chance that organized crime - which may have twice
the budget of all the militaries in the world ...

A Nigeria conflict is higher than a Texas[?] conflict.

Emem: Possibility - about same.

We don't have people firing guns and blowing things up yet.

Interesting ideas.
Bus as Usual
Env Backlash
High Tech

Jose: We are basically under schedule.
Review methodology quickly.
Over 1 year project.
Japan, Canada, Kuwait, Ven.

Extensive bibliography and country energy scenarios.
China, Russia.

Example: Shell scenarios. 2050, latest.

Different ways. Matrix, Peter Schwartz. 
Jerry: Shell and Herman Kahn. Shell was coached by Kahn.
Peter Schwartz worked for Shell, just like Emem.

Delphi round 1.
Energy experts from around the world.
Lot of participation from the private sector.

Second round.
Divided by scenario.

Confusing the theatre critics comments with the original play.

Jose: Sent students the link

Jerry: Current dynamics are changing.
Tons of surprises in the future.
What is surprise-free is no new dynamics, extensions.

Jose: Methodologically important.
Average answers when disagreement.
2.13 very high agreement - artificial bacteria 74% agreed.

- Energy Sources
Coal liq in 2020, Tar sands - mix does change, but not radically.

Real Time Delphi
Ted Gordon - founder of technique. Gives immediate survey responses, able to compare trends.

- International 
Barry Huges, U of Colorado - Denver
Used for National Intelligence Council 2020.
Free on internet.
Did simulation, Delphi survey

Five output variables - including water usage.

- \"Fill in the Blanks\" new method.

Scenario 1 = Business as Usual. 

Scenario 2 = Env Scenario - thongs are proof of global warming

Scenario 3 - High Tech
Convergence.
All information. 
Contrast with Limits to Growth (1970s)
Jay Forester - father of systems dynamics.
Very wrong. 
Herman Kahn: The Next 200 Years. In 1976. Future was incredibly bright.
Club of Rome is very wrong.

No lack of oil
Too much oil
Going deeper, finding oil everywhere.
Clear trend - moving into a new wave of energy
Tree wave is dead
Coal wave is going away
Each wave is cleaner
More to Hydrogen - cleaner.
Away from Carbon 
Even BP \"beyond petroleum\"
Buckminster Fuller = the Energy \"Internet\"

Eric: BP rebranded, back to petroleum

GENI.org
Smart grid.

Jerry: Point Fuller was making - world peace wasn't possible until electric grids were interconnected. That grid may be in orbital space.

Pun on energy - \"Fuel-er\"

Jose: Bioenergy.
Venter funded by Exxon. To the tune of half a billion.
So basic.
All the plants make gasoline.
We call it food normally, but it is fuel.
fossil hydrocarbons = carbs.

\"The Stone Age did not end for lack of stones\"

Power content of different sources.
We are in 20-50 MJ/kg 
Others are much more intensive.

Here, Russian cosmologist
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale
*Type I \u2014 a civilization that is able to harness all of the power available on a single planet \u2014 has approximately 10^16 or 10^17 W available.[2] Earth specifically has an available power of 1.74 \u00d7 10^17 W (174 petawatts, see Earth's energy budget). Kardashev's original definition was 4 \u00d7 10^12 W \u2014 a \"technological level close to the level presently attained on earth\" (\"presently\" meaning 1964).[3]
*Type II \u2014 a civilization that is able to harness all of the power available from a single star, approximately 4 \u00d7 10^26 W.[2] Again, this figure is variable; the Sun outputs approximately 3.86 \u00d7 10^26 W. Kardashev's original definition was also 4 \u00d7 10^26 W.[3]
*Type III \u2014 a civilization that is able to harness all of the power available from a single galaxy, approximately 4 \u00d7 10^37 W.[2] This figure is extremely variable, since galaxies vary widely in size; the stated figure is the approximate power output of the Milky Way. Kardashev's original definition was also 4 \u00d7 10^37 W.[3]

So, we are babies.
- The \"world\" according to Bush
bad joke.

Jerry: 
- Some Interesting Idea
Subjective pulling out of 4 scenarios
Things that jumped out at me.
Apollo - like energy program
US and China signed deal
Idea to have 10 year target, like moon, to coordinate

Q: Economic incentives for cheap energy very different from moon.
Would think economic system would develop.

Whole business of moon was political.
So is this.
US/China is potential long term conflict.

Only US/Russia agreements were Soyuz.
Because of GHG, might as well use that as a target.
Env/Energy agreements with US/China.
Happened within the last year.
Turns out it is plausible.

Q: I'm impressed. Actually convinced. Wow. OK. Cool.

If no futher questions, that's all I have to say.

Drove first all electric car. 
Told by GM - three batteries, each cost $10K.
China - Thunder Sky - brought price of battery to $2K.
Now have plant selling to military
Lithium ion - Prius price coming down due to batteries.

Japan plans to launch solar power station. Capability - 1st say they are going to do it.

Jose: $20 b for 15 years.

What they got this year is not the full allocation.

- Ocean based wind. Microwave back to Earth.
- Thin film solar. Use on buildings as much as possible
- Algae bio
- Nano tech efficiencies in general - make a vacuum cleaner, 
but imagine if you had nano particles collecting dust.
Resources for that are very small. Energy efficiencies of nano are 
extremely good.
- Remaining oil - like a woman in a men's locker room.
West sees MidEast with big power.
Their view is they've got this wonderful thing. Big powers will
come mess around. They are nervous wreck.
- Plants
- Efficiencies - pioneered in China. Urban systems econology
Wu San Wong [?]
Sensors around environment - so people of the city can
help manage the city as a whole system to get better efficiencies.
China now 2010 is world's largest energy consumer.
Number 1.
Jose: But China does not want to be #1 due to Kyoto.
Have already passed US in CO2.

- Sea water agriculture - Carl Hodges. Very nice design.
Water tables are falling. Pollution in China.
Water used for animal production.
Animal production has more GHG emissions than cars.
Idea is to use sea water as much as possible rather than fresh.
More meat without animals, the better.
Making meat without using animals has been done.
Like a pudding - no one wants to eat meat pudding.

- Hot rock geothermal.
- Solar farms to heat sterling engines
smaller ones.
Q: Liquid salt solar system. Heat large crystal of salt.
Tank contains salt - stabilizer. Then extract heat from it.

Have you heard of people doing it?
Emem: Plant in Italy. 
Archemides - thermodynamic solar.
Q: This is the same thing.
Reason I am jumping on this - briefing on this with Kuwait.
They have issue with baseload. Looking at new options.
We have been suggesting heat exchange.
Flaring gas - cap that and get some energy off it.

- Shell Oil's \"Sustainable\" Growth
I added three boxes.
Notice there is not much from 1880-1940.
This was called the sustainable growth.
From 2000 on - using more fossil.

Add sequestration. Waste oil processes gave us plastics.
Love to see how we can get carbon out of energy production systems and make carbon nanotubes.

What are all of the options for carbon sequestration and reuse.
What do we know now - an e-mail address of a lab.
What is the cost effect and time to impact.

Coal to gen. Future Gen - canceled.
10 years to build plant - another 50 years to build plants.
70 years to solution.
When you do cost/benefit - add time to impact.
What are policy options.
This would be nice chart - do a good job, we'll get you a professional publication.

Solar Power Satellites.
Nuclear - reprocessing problem

No GHG, no nuke waste, enough forever.
Integrate Bucky Fuller - big science, big engineering. That is an issue.

Microwave is one of the approaches - 
Japanese are looking at laser.

Q: Microwaves are just ridiculously cheaper 1000 fold.
Microwave propulsion becomes economical with another 50 fold.

O'Neill - launch costs were key.
NASA: Use nuclear.
All the rest: don't use shuttles.
Launch cost depends on how launch works.
Japanese have hot shot robotics folks - do as much mfg in space as possible.
Bring in asteroids.
Nanotech extruder - elegant solution.

Another option - build on earth, launch it up
Third - put on the moon. Lot of margins of error.
Make a mechanical cockroach that kind of shits out solar collectors.
How do you produce it for reliability.
Freeman Dyson.

Breaking into groups - 4.
Do two things: 
1/ what are the energy options that are most important to invest into, based on whatever criteria you choose
2/ what do all scenarios need.
What to pursue, regardless.
Improving handheld communications - good thing.

Jose: 20 minutes. Reconvene for 10 min.

Team 1: Business as Usual
Nuclear, oil, gas, coal are considered 

Team 3:

Jerry: High Tech

answer the question - what is the 1 or 2 energy investments 
to make to take advantage of that whole direction.
You are in that world.
What is the best investment to make.
Public/Private is big these days.

Then, what needed in every scenario?

Team members: Candice, Max, Adam Glickman, John Graves, Hind

Candice: Back home, thinking about for decades.
Adam: We are tearing up your tar sands.
Candice: Core space - water interface. Very centric to oil sands.
Takes about 8 barrels of water for 1 of oil.
4 can be reused. 4 are lost into the product.
The water draw of the industry 
1.4 T barrels. Put up to 4-5 T. Pinch point for water.
Back to high tech.
Sidestepping - steam assisted gravity drainage - \"SAG-D\"
Use water to separate it. End up with this liquid form of oil you could pull up.
Try Venter's biological in situ - let them separate and refine.
That would be very interesting.
Mitigate usage - huge ramifications for land usage and water.
What Venter is doing is very interesting.
Coming up to our area.

Max: So, came with questions.
Do we mean high tech in terms of energy, or rest of world.
Adam: We write the scenario. I see a lot of crossing.
I'm with the smart gird. Smart demand. Able to cause need, collaborative - to force peace. Starts being so interdependent.
Max: More meta-level. Instead of trying to figure out specific areas.
Quickly find right paths as they develop - funnel to them as they come up. Difficult to predict before the fact. Try a lot of diversified means. Decentralized - most efficient. As opposed to one centralized push - solar from space.
If that wasn't the answer, the other options will be underexplored.

Candice: Limit on batteries. Very much tied to usage matching generation.
Need advanced batteries - store whatever we get.
That is core core.
You bring up really good point - awareness that move to centralized grids - will be decentralized in developing world. Too much investment in centralized.
Developing have capacities - without billions and trillions.
Adam: Energy to the village.
Max: Small nukes, self contained. Store underground.
Candice: Microgrids. Various technologies. Parts of India/China/Africa.
Within 20/50 years - webbed in same sense?
Advances in storage huge.
Other core - in policy end. Fix CO2 pricing. Huge problem.
Such a low price ...
Max: Easier in this country than globally.
Candice: Fluctuates $10 to $13. Need at $65-70 per unit.
We are way out.
Push energy platform companies.
Max: In decentralized way.
Candice: Need to 
Max: Greg Mankiw 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N._Gregory_Mankiw

Candice: If we woke up and agreed that carbon was $70.
Max: Leads in very decentralized way. Do it gradually.
Find what alternative works best.
Adam: Like the micro idea. Once you develop a strain.
Deionize water.
Candice: Syn bio. IGEM out of MIT.
Harnessing biological systems in bio and non-bio sense.
Process wastes to produce energy.
Just started playing with them.
Battery storage.
Actual - externality pricing.
Jose: Should be on Energy.
Adam: Optimizing for water or energy, a very thin wall.
Reverse osmosis.
[Jim Hurd arrives]
Candice: If you check out 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IGEM

Incenting in pharma.
Environmentally as well.
I'm just picking and choosing. Now quite ubiquitous.
Storage ...
Hind: I'd agree. Cost of solar going way down.
Solve the storage problem.
Candice: Any intermittent. Wind. Utilize, that's great, but it does fluctuate so much. Huge problem.
Adam: Biggest battery we have is water. Pumping water up into LA hills. That's the best we have until we build ultracapacitors.
Max: Things discussed:
decentralized
storage will be useful
externality pricing -
multiple or just ours?
Candice: Pardon my bias.
Say you got externalities or storage. Would work in all scenarios,
global issues.
Could feed in and be a driver.
Max: Political, Environmental
Candice: If we want to use battery - 
Global Energy Security - even out.
Even out quality. Not utopic sense, but in general sense.
Distribute evenly.
For foreign relations. Even out Canada/US.
Look at energy-centric. Dilute that out. Share that.
Feast/famine currently.
Adam: Look at Maslow - water and food issue.
Forces you to synthesis methods.
Doesn't preclude space based solar or mineral harvesting.
Max: Problem with externality pricing.
Candice: Kicking terms around.
Max: Their pathway - from developing to what we have now - involves path through dirty energy. But what do they care. Need food on a plate.
All countries go through this stage.
If you price it, no cheap energy phase, are they cut off?
Can they not afford energy?
Not fond of that method.
10:56
Jose: Reconvene in the center. Teams present.
Back in.
Candice: Transformative - storage area. Efficient, effective - enormous. Change the way we think of energy. Complete fundamental shift. Fundamentally different. Policy would be different.

Adam: Is bang for buck likely to be for storage?
Until we go truly nano or quantum.

Candice: That's where the technological Achilles' heel.
10:59
Jerry: Scenario group 1.
Erika: So we are representing business as usual.
Basic assumptions we made:
first, centralized power production > decentralized
No radical disruption in status quo
second, fossil prices relatively stable and low
Favor established players.
Increasing urbanization

Carbon capture and sequestration
Invest in Nuclear
One across all scenarios - PV - but not strong enough to uproot
established.

Jerry: Depressing isn't it.

Jose: Backlash.
Mercy: Looking at env backlash - both env supported and env itself.
Tech - clean - solar/wind/tidal/hydro
Invest in waste/ better storage. Off peak.
#3 Early detection of backlash from crowd sources.
#4 Carbon capture and sequestration.
Incentives for reforestation.
Institutions should have free, unfettered research
Policy in this area.

Jose: No more comments.
Q: Tidal backlash.
Jerry: Two sentences:
Backlash from env to human.
What env kicks back to human.
What people do relative to movement.

Jose: Ran last Sunday. 
We crossed the Golden Gate. Then crossed the finish line.
Eric. 300 out of 20,000 [applause]
Next week 100 out of 50,000.

Candice: 
High tech pushes.
Core platform, Achilles' heel
Storage - not adequate currently
What we generate we have to use
Can't time shift
For other categories - would premeate through all of them.
Change the way we deal with the issue.
Interesting to change global dynamic of energy distribution.
Intersting examples:
Side step - externality of CO2 pricing. Glossing over complex situation. Would be intersting to move to $65-75 pricre range.
Price Carbon- ramifications would be substantial.

Synth bio - if I take oil sands back home - use less water. In situ.

Geobacter - degrade human wastes to produce electricity - for decentralized.

Last topic: central vs decentralized. We have huge investment in existing systems, developing countries might do better with distributed.

Jerry: When you taked about storage in high tech.
Thought to consider - imagine an alternative future where indeed, we have 1000s of solar panel sets. You manage your baseload electricity on a global basis.
Send variable amounts.
Storage in that is much different.

Jose: Team 4.
Eric: Turmoil in 2020
Michael - no decision or policy would make sense if China was
not involved.
Also, US will not be so relevant with respect to China.
Italy has always been irrelevant [laughter]
Something not already mentioned - as of now, 
massively inefficient
100 energy input - 10 energy service
90 wasted.
china already and will even more aggressively eliminate waste.
Redesigning everything.
Michael pointed out - meat production could be more impactful.
China mandates making meat more expensive, reduce production.
Accelerate storage. To store solar and make more decentralized.

Transfer from meat - cows to batteries.
Michael: Major things but also talked about the automated mfg
of small scale wind systems. More desirable when you have storage.
Increase economies of scale of small mass produced wind turbines.
Favor approach with battery or post-battery storage.

Highly profitable. Especially in turmoil - way to make profits.

Jose: Questions?
OK. 
Jerry: Homework. Go on-line.
http://www.unmillenniumproject.org/reports/rp_energy.htm

Francesco: No open wars between states.
None against US. No direct threat to American territories.
Satellite attack.

Jerry: Starts with dirty bomb attack.
Over 1000 deaths per year = UN definition of war.

Transnational definition of war.
Also nation state wars.

F: Book that has at least in the title.
The Next 100 Years - George Friedman
http://www.amazon.com/Next-100-Years-Forecast-Century/dp/038551705X

Jerry: When you mention Herman Kahn and wars.
Sometimes you describe these things to prevent them.
We hope Friedman is also wrong.
Important that we consider these things.

Jose: Since Herman Kahn was mentioned.
Jerry was his friend, mentor.
Paul Saffo coming.
Introduce Jerry in 2000.
When millenium edition was released.
Based on work 2 years earlier - 1998
15 global challenges.
I became involved in 2000.
Consider him my mentor.
Release latest version.
Considered one of the 10 top futurists in the world.
Toffler
Drexler
and 
Jerome Glenn.
So now, we have here the chair of the Silicon Valley node
Jack Gottsman
Chairman of board.

Jack: Don't know what is left.
Always like to be introduced by Jose. Sterling example.
Jerry Glenn and I have been friends for 30 years.
Always been a leader in the futures movement
and particularlly with Ted Gordon, did feasibility study in early 90s.
1996 - delphis
Key product of the millenium project.
So, Jerry - welcome and glad to see you.
[applause]

11:22
As I explained to the SU students, 
for those coming in now.
Raise your hand.
State of the Future has an executive summary
that I would like you to read.
In German, Spanish, 10 or more languages.
About 9 pages long.
General summary about 6 pages.
If you don't think those are the most important 6 pages to read, 
I want edits, comments.
First chapter on global challenges.
Imagine a global think tank.
One page summaries.
One page on regional considerations.
On CD-ROM, those 30 turn into 1200.
Index.
GDP/capita is waste of time? Attempts to change measures.
If you can't measure it, you can't manage it.
Define progress.
Take 15 challenges.
What are the indicators. Got about 120 or so.
Not always good measures. Reduced to 19.
Needed 20 years of data to say something about 10 years.
2 to 1 ratio.
We are making this up as we go along.
We now have 30 indicators.
How could this variable be the best? What is the worst?
Gives us 0 and 1 to project through?
Almost best?
Gave us a number. Add across.
Only future index, so far.
All the rest are present tense.
Through the years, various iterations. Now 30 variables.
Also integrated with International Futures Model - 20 variables.
We can also go by country.

Collective Intel - in a bit.
Security -
Pleased to say, US govt has put env change with terror
Latin America - 
Jose. Just did it. Twisted everyone's arm. Really pushy, gets things done.
35 nodes. an intersection.
What are you doing? What needs to be done?
Social impacts are really not done well.
Tech forecasting
But how does society really get effected by A, B, C.
Weak point that needs strengthening.

Millennum Project - 
UN organizations
NGOs
Governments
Universities
Corporations
Income and input comes from all these.

35 nodes around world to send question to.
Who in their area knows about X.

Initiate activies - 
Jose did Latin America study.

Look at goals - 8th is misc.
Each node can do training, workshops - their way.
Experimental.
Not a hierarchy.
Intersect networks, becomes a field of play.
Fields of play interacting with each other.

World is in a race.
Every month, environmental 
http://www.aepi.army.mil/

Doug Englebart
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Engelbart

We are overloaded with answers.
Our problem is, so many answers, no decision.
Race between implementing and the increasing global complexity.

What is the report card?
We measure:
Where are we winning.
% with access to water
Where there is little change
Where losing
Where uncertain

We have improved in absolute and percentage.
1.3 bn in middle class 100 years ago.
True rich getting richer.
Absolute growth.
With India and china - world is getting richer.

Annual population growth falling - even in Kenya.
People could become burden to retirement systems.

GDP increasing 3%. Not bad.
Physicians per person.
Internet - 30%.
More users in China than entire population of US.

Infant mortality - fewer babies die
Women in parliaments.
Trend in reducing conflicts - fewer conflicts 

Where losing?
CO2
No impact so far
Increasing temp.
Voting - has gone down, stalled.
Press freedoms down.
Political expressions down. A little annoying.
Unemployment
Might be uncertain.

Instead of looking for a job because job might not be there,
look for markets instead.
What is idea, look for VC.
Before, anybody can create enterprise.
Have not shifted \"look for markets\"
Synergetic vs competitive analysis.
IBM will cooperate and compete with companies at the same time.
Backing into this with RFPs.
Teach in business schools.
Ask, what is my synergetic contribution ...

Fossil fuel - keeps going up.
Corruption - still going up. World Bank - about $1 T are paid out in bribes.
All military budgets - about 1.3 to 1.5 T.
So bribery is close to that.
So democracy is becoming an illusion.
Idealists - 
Correlated to this - our estimate is organized crime is about 3 T.
In kind and cash.

Q: What percent goes to ...
I don't know.
Ask World Bank.
Copy me.

Organized crime - Columbia. Need new markets, services.
New product line - buy/sell decisions. 
If we don't have global systematic strategy, business will see
it as a cost of business.
What I'm saying is, 
democracy is threatened by bribery.
Democracy may become increasingly an illusion.
We do not have good strategy on this.
Now being moved around.
In the State of the Future.
Not winning there.

People killed in terrorist attack.
Refugees - uncertainty. Displaced in a country.

Little Change
HIV percent. A lot of people that got it are dead.
Not confident about India and China.

Homicide rate.

Uncertain 
Nukes - hard to get information
Forest cover.
Total debt service - progress with Haiti debt forgiven
Infectious disease - getting new ones.
Movie: War of the Worlds - defeated aliens via viruses.
Serious problems in synth bio. Create bio weapons of mass destruction. 

Q: Climate change microbes?

- 15 Global Challenges
Sustainable development
Clean water
Pop growth balance
Democracy
Policy
Ethical economies
Disease
Decisions
Values -
e-mail on break. Peace chart. End / prevent / create peaceful society
Women
stats - violence is disgusting. List the \"war on women\" if defined 
as 1000 deaths or more. Suggestion - take leaf out of cold war.
Deterents. Give women martial arts training. Not too many women would be attacked. Italy making this a national policy. 60,000 girls.
Max: Just give them all concealed carry license.
Already paid for.
Max: When you pull out a gun, doesn't matter where you point it.
Transnational organized crime- 
Meet energy demands
Accelerate tech to improve human conditions
Tech awards was spin off from this
Ethical decisions.
Some people argue - unhonorable decisions led to financial crisis.

That becomes the human agenda.
That's the job.
We have learned in biology to understand in terms of systems.
We have a general understanding of the body.
This is a framework for the whole system. 
Hurt one, you hurt the whole system.

Collective intelligence
Korea
Kuwait
15 challenges
Jack Park - key player in making this happen.

Foundation of the Future
http://www.futurefoundation.org/

Everyone in this room is \"collective judgement\"
Collective intelligence is emergent property going on all the time.
Just doing an internet search or database search or expert answers is not it.
The \"Aha\" business.
People able to change, not relational database.
-Each can change the other
[Triangle:
Groups of Experts
Hardware

]

5 expert groups:
Climate Science
Green Tech
Energy
Policy
Adaptation

Q: Tom Malone, MIT.
http://cci.mit.edu/

We have a check for him. Owes me an e-mail.
He'll be involved.

Here is one interface - looking like a normal website.
Click on resources, has all the other similar
Branson
DOE
best world has to offer

Aggregator - 3,4,5,600 RSS feeds.

Q: Climate change on other planets as well.

Start with baby steps. 
Discuss on list serv.
Goes into compendium.
All of these are searchable.

Q: I'm suspicious of carbon credit schemes, creating derivatives.
[? http://endthefedusa.ning.com/forum/topics/carbon-credit-derivatives ?]

Jose: 80% correlation of temperature of Earth and Mars.

Jerry: Put it all on the table.
Pro/con.
Research.
Be sure to put in the research statement.
Find what is just opinion.

Jim Hurd: Middle east/energy.

Jerry: Tomorrow, briefing from early warning system
for Prime Minister in Kuwait.
In hot seasons, AC hits peak.
How to meet that need?
Have human intelligence do it.
Options in improving electric production in Kuwait.

Respond to feedback. Leads to intelligence.
Even if wrong - changing / edit it.

- Collective Intelligence Software Platform

Publish live for participants

Two wikis:
Experts
Non-experts.

Bring non-expert into expert group and you lose the experts.
All into global server

Step by step to get to something Doug has been talking about for a long time.

Jose: OK. Coordinating Latin America 2030 study.
Most independence - 1810 began.
Celebrate 200 years.
Time for study. 2 years. First phase began.
Incredibly good response, including Cuba. Censored there.
Participants sent via free e-mail account.
Finished first part.
Continue in following year, develop scenarios.
Very relevant.
Reading about countries celebrating - first battle, constitution, invasion.

Seen what happend to Simon Bolivar?
Max: Exumed, found it was not actually the body. 

Q: Stats on organized crime distrubing? Achilles' heel?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Achilles'_heel

Money laundering.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_laundering

Cake is bigger than people are willing to talk about.

Q: BCI bank failure in Italy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banca_Commerciale_Italiana

Agree to software upgrade.

Q: Urbanization
Cities on costs.
Pay $1 / ton of water in city.

Israel - 53 cents per ton. Acceptable for urban environments.
Water problem is subset of energy problem.

Leads to policy.
Energy price up? Makes water worse.
Don't make policy for one reason.

Jerry: as much as we can move to salt water agriculture - carbon sink, ...

Q: Parallel - desalinate a lot? change chemistry of the sea water. Be cautious.

Charles, your assignment - when we do Malaysia - have various groups.
Make sure you con is in there.

Q: On that issue - desal is just artificial way, like rain, gets back in sea.

Q: But drastically change ...

Q: Desal - brine comment. Capture CO2 - done at Moss Landing power plant. Create coral like cement. 10-20x stronger than portland cement.
Australia / India / China
Perfected by Stanford prof.
They want CO2 to capture the carbon trading credits to push out more oil.

Q: Exactly why suspicious of carbon credits in the first place.

Jerry: Thank you.

Jim Hurd: Where going in next 4-5 years? Progression. TransInstitution in next few years?

Jerry: TrasInstitution is an idea. Does not exist as such.
My definition is, the governing body has some from 
international UN
govt
univ
private
NGO
and individuals.
That's the governing body.
People that do the work ...
Notice I just volunteered Charles to do some work.
Money comes from sales, grants 
can show value.
Do those things. Govt would recognize not as a profit or non-profit.
Want a government to come up with transinstitional category.

Almost done in Germany.
Get some country to do it. Register MP. Send to others.

Jim: Google acting transinstitutional?

They are what they are.

We are not asking them to move.
If we do our acts, like that Latin American study - not just public/private.
People badmouth the UN, but you are getting the data from the UN.
That's what transinstition is.

Future of MP? I hope that what I say is hopelessly narrowminded looking back 5 years.
More nodes - cyberspace.
Others are geographic.
Arts / Media / Entertainment.
Korea online gaming.
Say, how would the future of AEM look?
Opera in Europe.

Global Intelligence System - within 5 years.

Q: Observation - transinstitutions.
Other countries using constitutions.
People who created US and French - not thought perfect,
but best for their circumstances.
Either circumstances haven't changed, or people don't understand design.
To build better institutions appropriate to our current circumstances, develop body of expertise - out of history. What principles they learned?
We don't seem to be able to do or even attempt to do.

Jerry: 
Another study we did last year.
We assumed - relative to financial crisis -
next system may be more complex than what we have today.
So idea was to say, next one too complex.
Make it, cram it down someone's throat - won't be cool.
Open source economics - come out of here.
Economists- state ownership.
Non-ownership is another option.
What is the positive / negative.
Buy CD-ROM on way out.

Assess - what are those seeds - or early attactors.

Salim: Thank Jerry. A great talk.
MP is a great collaborator.
How do we address people
use technologies

Fin change
swine flu

Leadership does not have good exp tech perspective.

One little story:
As a small org. How to manage vast apps.
80 slots. 1600 applications.

Took one partnership in Brazil -
used XPrize approach and accelerating thinking
- one of you will get to go all expenses paid to SV
start with idea to impact Sao Paulo
230 projects created.
Do across Mexico City , Shanghai, lots of impact.
Roll out to 5-7 cities next year.

Challenge - 
chief economist - Domincan Republic
My country runs out of water in 9 years.

However we can help.
Thank you Jerry.
12:41 [applause]
http://www.millennium-project.org/

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Aug3-Presentation-Boot-Camp
"Tuesday
8/3/2010
2:45 pm
At Kicklabs
http://www.kicklabs.com/

2:44
David Rose:
Greetings and salutations
We are in a playland of adventure
Making lots of money
Chris Redlitz
CR: Thanks David.
Earlier in the year, 
really cool space for early stage companies.
When he first stepped in here
really cool space
going to be super successful
Like to do event in here.
Tina Seelig
Pay close attention
David is the man.
Kicklabs - opportunity to give early stage companies
collaborate
8 companies
analytics
social media
gaming
broadly - media
Grow and collaborate - within and without.
Very collaborative
Verge of launch from beta to public release
People working as we are doing this presentation.
Your first slide is free.
Beverly Parente - who runs events and anything
in and around
Laura Kelly - Anastasia up at the desk.
David: Wait for the reception.

Also partner
Peter Boboff
Michael Downing
Bootstrapping, friends and family.
Rounds under $1 m
Kickstart.
Have cocktail afterwards.

David: Thank you Chris [applause]
For those of you from SU - 
usual title \"How to pitch a VC\"
You are entrepreneurs.
Deliverables this Friday. Asked for 2 short paragraphs, got pages of dense text.
Not a quick and dirty elevator pitch.
Without ability to communicate, you will not get funded.

Let's start with a bit of personal experience.
6 weeks. Seen world's most brilliant people.
lots and lots and lots or presentations.

Presentations have been 
: very difference
: high variance
: (same thing)
So, what have been hallmarks of most effective?
Absolutely great - some.
Davidad: Theatricality
: Flow
: Strucutre
: tell story
: visual
: passion
All absolutely key.
Big, big difference. If bright person cannot communicate, useless.
Others captivated you.
What happened. 
What is it that some people do it, some people can't.
Relation between speaker and audience.
KRSP approach
critical
Knowledge - if speaker doesn't know - you pick it up
No matter who you are talking to. They know what you don't know.
you have to know your stuff. If you don't know the material - 
integrity - truth tells.
People can make a snap judgement about where they are coming from.
Respect - assume audience knows something
You should be pitching your presentation as if audience is
intelligent 6th graders. 6th graders know something.
you know more than they do. So you have to be able to teach them.
the other is - they are really bright. Think how you were at 12.
Give them the ability to t
Don't patronize. They get that instantly - whether you've done it
a dozen times before.
Best are there in the moment, focused only on you.
Learn: 
Skill - today will take care of structure, design, delivery
No reason you can not learn this.
Many schools omit, others do poor job / out of date
You have seen the good ones.

Preparation - comes down to you. You have to practice.
They want to see what you can deliver.
Sprititura - making something hard look easy
Think through
Set up room
CEOs that make presentations! 
This is you. You have to work. 
If it is worth giving a presentation, it is worth busting your ass for.
It was not by accident.
Rest of today on Skill
Know it
Respect audience
Skill
Prepare - practice and practice and practice - 20 to 30 time full runthroughs. Find reactions, how to fine tune.

What do investors look for in companies?
Large and growing market
As you will hear from Esther Dyson
Reason for SU - understand what is coming down pike
Really really important thing
Understand what investors are looking for
you'll hear scalability again and again
Majority of businesses will not support the crazy returns VCs need
Economics of risk/reward ratio require homerun 
How can you change whole hot dog world.
Scaleable
competitive advantge - no me-too business
External validation
Give metrics
We are human
Angel list. You send in your application. Get introduction to me or Chris. 2 guys do it for fun.
They may say, David Rose invested. 
Validation = profitable revenue.
Other than you, this is a good deal.
So, you've got 
Markets
Scalabe
Competitive advantage
external
reasonable validation

GREAT PEOPLE
VCs and angel investors -
not investing in company
We are making a bet on you -
betting the jockey, not the horse.
You personally are the one who can take that and make it work.
Who is the most important person on the team?
Not the techie.
You have all this technology.
Not the UI designer - critically important part. Look at Apple > Microsoft. All about user experience. Understanding interface between user and product.
Not the salesperson - missed by 
Pitched products.
Sales and marketing is critical - how and why is someone going to buy this.
Not the business guy - OK, so not techie, UI, salesperson, business guy.

: The customer.

Customer focus is vital. In terms of your team,

: The team

Team dynamics are important.

: The visionary

Most important person on this team.
Think of why you were selected.

THE Entrepreneur.
CAN be one of those. What happens - Bill Gates = techine + entrepreneur
UI + entreprenuer = Steve Jobs

Sales + entre = Branson
business guy + entre = Bloomberg

Role is critical. Pitch us - who is the entrepreneur?
YOU
We want to see you
buy into you
Take our money and invest in you.

First rule. 
Why are YOU standing there?
If you have flash movies, 
this is not a narrated slideshow =
only you can deliver the essence of you.
I want to see you.
I am going to invest in you.
forget all the other stuff.
It is all about YOU.
What does that mean?
What things are we trying to get out of you?
Things we are looking to get.
What is the very first, most important thing.

Integrity.
Really, really important.
Not bullshit.
Not ethical stuff.
This is the real deal.
We are talking about investing in you before you have revenue.
It all comes down to 
Do we believe in you.
If we get even the slightest - integrity - we will pass.

If Integrity is #1.
Tell how you screwed former investors. 
Tell how you screwed customers.
You can't be two faced.
Can't be one person to your employers and another to customers.
You better be one person. True to yourself.

#2 Passion.
How many of you have seen video on YouTube.
Some speakers at SU had passion.
Sharing passion.
Passion is really important.
Tomorrow - what is an entrepreneur.
Clearly passion is it.

Now into actual company.
three things under heading of Knowledge
Background
Do you know this stuff
Do you have Experience - knowledge of how to run a business
Even if you flubbed the first time.
High correlation between first success and next
No correlation between first failure and second try.

: First time entrepreneurs?

You will hear contrarian views. Not sure that is a seasoned judgement.
Running a business is really tough.
Takes a whole host of things.
Emotional ups/downs
Time scales

If you don't have. Look for things that stand in place of that.
Debate team
Football captain.
tutoring program.
Skills you'll need for leadership.

Third is - what I call Domain Expertise.
Wonderful idea, but don't know market/industry.
you will hear again and again that progress depends on the
unreasonable man.
But it helps to know the pain of the market.
Trying to solve someone else's problem before you have run into it yourself.
Someone who knows the problem / business COLD.

Skill
Sales
Financing
Financial Management
HR
That pull a whole company together.
Companies have components, need to be pulled together.

Very few can be techies, pitch vision.
Pairs of guys.
2-3 complementary guys.
Don't need a whole lot of co-founders.
See that you have team together - what does it take?

Leadership - get people to work for you for equity or on the come.
Can't learn it in school
Innate - charisma, 

What do you need to look good to investors?
Integrity
Passion
Experience
Skill
Leadership
Commitment
Vision
Realism
Coachability

Pitch
1. Start off strong
2. Slowly build
3. End with exponential growth/excitement

positives
logical progression
Things the VC knows/understands
Validators (external)
Believable upside, believable profit
negatives
Things the VC knows are not true
Things the VC does not understand
Things that make me think
Internal Inconsistencies
Typos, errors, etc.

Talk/Pitch
Opening
first slide has business name and logo, your name and title
Context Setter
\"We do such and such in bla bla market\"
Management Team

Flow of Pitch
Can be anything as long as there is some structure

What do you say?
Opening
Context Setter

You are going to be there until the end.
Commitment.
Only exception: someone who started in 1999, got buyout without doing work.
There is rain in your life.
You can either throw up your hands.
Do you think I want that?
I don't want you to give up on that company.
You don't give up on me.
I am buying your soul here.
You damn well better stay there until the end.
You are not going to leave people in the lurch.

What bribes you into doing that?

Your Vision.
Here is the endgame.
Not the revenues 3 years out
Not the exact product
Vision of something bigger than you.
Apple's motto
\"Changing the World\"
Fascinating Columbia Business School survey
15 different things:
Brilliant idea
Knew market
...
Only two things had any successful correlation -

Not liking to work for someone else. Negative correlation - do worse.

One thing: Vision to create something. Urge to make something big.
Sets you apart from person who doesn't execute.

Changing the World. One person at a time.

Realism.
World does not work on hockey sticks.
No way 10% of America is going to sign up.
Know how to get from customer 1 to 2. Be realistic.
Finally,
Early stage, need financing.
I've been here before. Started before. Made a lot of mistakes.
Would like to know you are coachable.
Coachability -
Why would VC want to take over your money losing startup.
Most VCs don't want a majority.
Then you can leave them with responsibility.
This is what you are trying to convey.
I've got this checklist. How do you do all this in 15-20 min presentation.

You do not say it. You've got to show by doing.
Validators. Things you show me.

1. Get on plane. Alan - Apax. Now back into small end. 
Pitch me.
2. Open Power Point. 
3. Type in some stuff - put in graphics
4. Add some animations
FedEx Kinkos, print deck
5. Hand out your slides
6. Read presentation
7. don't get funded

Happens again and again and again.

have people with 10 things, but don't get funded.
We see 400+
50 per month in screening.
Invite pitches - 3 companies come in.
Results were awful. Not investing.
Not serious investors.
We are here to invest. PLEASE help us give us something.
But getting really ridiculous presentation.
FIRST learn how to pitch.

Three things we teach

Content
What you are actually going to talk about.
If all you tell me is the color of your widgets ... no funding.
Irrelevant ... no funding

Presentation
How to display - slides.
Delivery

First, content.
Think about designing structure and content
Think as a performance art.
Every performance has a flow. 36 episode TV season. Set up.
Beginning end. Overarching.
O'Henry short stories. Drama - twist at the end.
Action/Adventure - builds - hero beaten up, comes up to bigger height.
Each has flow.
There is one for VC pitch.

X axis is you 18 min presentation.
When you walk in and start - I'm predisposed. I want to hear what you say.
Start about middle.
Dress appropriately - not tux or bathing suit. Dress slightly more formally.
Dress nicely. Appropriately.
You have from this neutral start. 30-60 seconds - come out with really strong opening.
NOT \"Thank you for being here ...\"
You need to come really, really strong.
Look at body language. If they sit back in chair. you want them to want you to continue.
Start should bear on the company - a personal story, annectdote, compare two unusual thign
big numbers. Needs to have big impact.
What is the lead in.
Maybe 60 seconds - imbue presentation with strength, leadership - maybe humor but no jokes.

Main body - slow and solid build More and more and more.
Adding in yeah, this and yes, and this plays to something else and almost sure thing.

No take a little breather.
Tie with bow.
Then go to moon.
You want them to say YEAH I want invest.
I've seen presentation where people pull out checkbooks ready to invest.
Everything you say reinforces. Then call to action.
That's the feel you want to give.
SU presentations didn't have that- but they were great. Built this way.

What things take audience up?
Logical progression.
Simple - A then B then C. Pyramids started at bottom.
Not MC Escher staircase.
Lay foundation. Next step. next step.
Never say something \"how did you get there\"
Entire structure has to flow logically on preceeding statement.
People throw things randomly on the wall and it doesn't work.

Things I know and/or understand. 
When I am listening, always trying to find solid ground.
Pitons for rock climber. Move to next.
You are hammering pitons into my understanding of the world.
I know the market, business model - 
Big name clients - I understand. 
$1 m. I understand.
Words, business models,
Start telling me about nanotech . Not here. 
Bring along life experience.
Validators - Ray K says, best ever seen.
Dan Barry - best on space shuttle.
Best of all - revenue and profits.
We'll take anything of someone body else.

Believable upside. Risky stuff. I want to make a lot of money.
$1 m in rev 3 years out - not interesting
$1 bn in rev? Not believable
What are expectations?
$20 m acquisition? Great angel deal, not a VC deal.
They want $200 m. They want, need, the really big hits.
These are things that send me up.

What things send me down. Going down is bad. Need to recover this.
Your heads just fell.

Things I know are not true - it is the end of the game 
You are either a lier or don't know what you are talking about.
Know what you say is true.
If not believable - back with proof immediately.

Things I don't understand.
I have to go back and figure out what you are saying.
You've lost me. I'm stuck 2 slide previously.
I don't get this. You are ahead.
You've lost me as my audience.

Things that make me think.
Old line presentation guides suggested this.
If you make audience participate, they will get it wrong.
Plenty of times for engagement - NOT this time.
You have to control entire flow.
Then freeform.
You do not want me to think

Internal Inconsistencies.
If youtell me in your strong monologue - 100% market share, 
then show me 98%. Inconsistency = error.

Typos, errors, unpreparedness.
you want to double, triple check.
Test with differnt fonts, projectors.
Nothing that looks like a stupid error.

Very first slide?
Title.
Analyze this example.
icon
MASHERY - what is that?
Turnkey Developer Programs for API Vendor
- no one knew what that means.
Completely lost me.

Convertible Preferred Series As Update
August 2006 -- I don't know the date?

Presented to NY Angels -- I know who I am
NY NY - I know where I am too

Totaly uselss.
What is missing?
YOU - the name - no idea who he is or why to invest.
Happy ending - ultimately investeed.

Icon - his logo
MASHERY
Oren Michels
CEO

Name of company.

Got rid of useless BS.
A visual to hang onto
Name of co.
Guy I'm betting on
That he is CEO.

How long can you look at this.
Ever look more than 10 seconds?
3 seconds, then look back at me.

Informed decision.

First rule of simplicity.
What should the overall structure be?

You look - that was designed.

Structure:
Opening 30-60 seconds. Discuss what to do. In 1980 a guy named Herman Hollerith developed tools for census. Company become IBM.

While I was walking here, I tore my pants, but no injury. What happened?

Context Setter.
Usual - Table of Context - BLAAH. Do they tell you the end of the plot at the movies?
You do not do this.
A little grain of truth - provide setter - the overall thing.
We are the world's largest designer of widgets.

Are you builder, buyer, ...
This level sets.

You put everything else in this context.
Tell overall picture.
Validate what is going on.

Main body
All kinds of ways to do this.
Flow.
Logical
Physical 
Chronological
Case Study
What Garvin did last night - 6 things
Spatial
Modular
Parallel
A B C vs A B C
Matrix
Numeric

Does not matter how organized so long as there is a structure.

closing.
Tell them - give them takeaway.
Generic.

For venture - particular sequence.
First slide
Who are you
Logo/Name/Title (CEO)
Context setter
Management team
Now this can go one of two places. Here or at the end.
Decide based on you and the business plan.
If critical about YOU, put it here.
We created EBAY and now ...
24 years and 4 PhDs ...
OR, just Bright MBAs ... put at the end. Team to excute.

Market / Pain
Where you are going at the end.
Sizing - buggy whip market not of interest. Know market is big, growing.
Know there is hole. 
Big. There is a hole.
Product / Solution
Pitch to VC is not product pitch.
VC is investing in company. Here, need 5-7 min of product.
If spend too much time ... won't understand business.
Show me.
Screen shots of the website.
If not, Hiding something??
business model = how you make money. Buy for 2, sell for 3.
Free, trade up.
Make 1 cent for every widget we sell.

Alison: Best way to show something tangible.

Do not pass things around. During this one type of participation.
No live demo. Totally controlling this one 18 min segment.
Plenty of time for demos, tours, meeting your mother ...
This is under control.

: How many slides?

Roughly - 1 slide per minute. 15-20 slides.
Certain styles - flip faster. 
Roughly 1-2 slides for each of these points.

Cities presentation - 
charter cities - what was business model Who benefits? Cuoi buono?

You only make money if somebody actually gets it.
Customers
Give me names.
Not women 18-24. Which particular women.
Getting to Market.
Everything is critical
How do you actually sell.
Channel strategy.
If end customer can't see it they are not going to do it.
Know competition absolutely cold
More times than I can count, I know competition better than pitch.
Third premium rum company in 1 month
Not know about stelth - be sure you know who is in your space
If I have to ask about somebody- you don't know your market.
Competition can be old ways of doing something.
Everybody had competition.
Buying something else
Buying
Unique advantage. 
What is special about you.
Previous was point by point.
Lock on channel?
IP?

Financial Overview.

here is way we came
pain
who doing it
buying decision
better because
getting to market
make money off pieces
THEN financials.

When people start with financials - no context.
Financials go at the end.

Where now?
History and Status.
How much raised, what valuatoin, what terms.
Then
Raise and Valuation
What is timeline - where does this take you.
To breakeven or close to it.
My investment - not hanging out a year and a half and need more VC.

Give all this in logic progression.
how would you react.
Oh, yeah, OK, see this. Got that nailed. Need this.
Exit if 5 years. Where do I sign!

Review- summarize.
Then why me. Your portfolio, skill set.

That's the structure.
4:00.
10 min break.
Chris.

Cocktail reception in atrium.
Go out the top - 2nd loor, exit in back. take stairs up.
nice setup -enjoy rare sunshine in August.
Mention - Peter Dreyfuss. Partner with Bro[?]
David: Thank you for hosting.

Chris: Transmedia Capital
http://www.transmediacapital.com/
Denver
Peter is Managing Partner with Bro.
Nice spread for you.

But first, the end of the story.
4:14
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ten-hut

Entire last section was about what.
Not how.
So, do you require powerpoint
the greatest speakers did not require powerpoint
How many powerpoints did - 
O

Say it then show it, don't show it then say it
Image you use should support u=you and create emotion in the audience

Use presentaion tools: Powerpoint, Keynote, PDF, Google Apps, Prezi
Don't use animations or transitions if they distract
Everything should add not detract from the presentation
A tool is only as good as its owner

David's TOP 10 TIPS
1. Only CEO can give the money pitch
2. Use your own computer & projector or check equipment before hand
3. Pace, roughly 1 minute per slide
4. Don not stroll or fidget, you can move with purpose and direction
5. Do not tell jokes ... ever, be natural, relaxed, and likeable
6. Handouts are not your presentation, hand them out after if your need to
7. Always use a remote
8. Do not do a live demo
9. Do not read your speech, should be able to do presentation wihtout anything even if power goes out
10. Do not look at the screen

It's all about you, you, you, go get 'em.

For more info:
rose.vs/readings
rose.vc/links

Q&A

If you have a co-founder?
The best presentations are by one person, there can be some exceptions if its completely equal

Body language?
Don't force anything, try to calm yourself down and be natural

Q and A mandatory?
Depends on the format, for this setting, yes

How much of the Team do you want to see?
Headshots, simlpe mini bios

What if they stump you?
Say \"thats a great question\" it could be a big factor, let me get back to you, etc. BE HONEST

Elevator Pitch
Start with this, boil it down to ten minutes, then 5 minutes, then 1 minutes, then 8 seconds
Once you have the 8 second essence you can blow it out to any length you want

Will this play internationally?
Absolutely, these are the universal basics

David Rose: Now go to TED.com and rate these presentations, look for the concepts discussed today

http://www.slideshare.net/garr/pitching-tips-presentation-tips-from-the-pitching-coach-presentation

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul22-CAD-Design
"Thursday
July 22, 2010 
9:00 - 12:00
Introduction to CAD Design 
Andy Barry 

Student Participants:
Diva Tommei
Emem Andrew
Hind Ahmed
Sarah Jane Pell

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Aug4-Vertical-Motion-Simulator
"Wed, August 4, 9 am - 12 noon

NASA Ames Vertical Motion Simulator SPS NASA Facility 

Andrew Fursman
Brad Kohlenberg
Homan Chan
Julielynn Wong
Maggie Jack

Matthew Kern
Michael Chen
Sarahjane Pell

8 Students

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Aug2-Surgical-Robotics
"Mon, August 2, 9 am - 12 noon

Surgical Robotics AIR & MED Off site 

Bryce Goodman
Carlos Azevedo
Chiara Giovenzana
Claudia Olsson
David Hutchison

David Roberts
Derek Jacoby
Diva Tommei
Emiliano Kargieman
Fabio Teixeira
-
Homan Chan
Javier Mares
Jorge Fernandez
Julio Silva
Justin Pahara

Kidist Zeleke
Mercy Njima
Sam Thorp
Sarahjane Pell
Sasah Grujicic
-
Sharon Niv
Steve Cronin
Tigist Ashenaffi
Valentina Margaria
Vincent Daranyi

25 students

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Aug3-Artificial-Life-and-Avatars
"Tues, August 3, 9 am - 12 noon

Artificial Life & Avatars NCS B.20 Viente 

Aaron Kemmer
Chiara Giovenzana
Connor Dickie
David Roberts
Diva Tommei

Homan Chan
Jan Jungclaus
Jason Dunn
Juan Lopez
Julielynn Wong
-
Matthew Kern
Nolene Naidu
Tony Lyu
Tyler Kratz
Vincent Daranyi

Zain Jaffer

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul23-Flight-Simulator
"July 23, 2010
9:00 - 12:00 
NASA Backstage Site Visit including Future Flight Simulator 

Student Participants:
Andrew Fursman
Ankur Jain
Connor Dickie
David Hutchison
Everson Lopes
Hind Ahmed
Jan Jungclaus
Jason Dunn
Kidist Zeleke
Luca Escoffier
Mercy Njima
Miguel Oroz
Rand Hind
Raycho Raychev
San Ko
Sarah Jane Pell
Steve Cronin
Tony Lyu
Vincent Daranyi
Yara Shaban

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Aug4-Science-Policy
"Wed, August 4, 9 am - 12 noon

Science Policy PLE B.20 Conference Room 

Alexandru Celac
Candice Berezan
Carlos Azevedo
David Dalrymple
Emiliano Kargieman

Juan Lopez
Julio Silva
San Ko
Sharon Niv

9 Students

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul30-Willow-Garage-Robotics
"Friday
July 30, 2010 
9:00 - 12:00 
Willow Garage Robotics 
AIR 
Offsite 

Alaeddine Mokri
Anders Hvid
Ankur Jain
Carlos Azevedo
Emiliano Kargieman

Erez Livneh
Eric Ezechieli
Eugenie Rives
Everson Lopes
Javier Mares
-
Julian Ugarte
Luca Escoffier
Ronen Amit
Tony Lyu
Tyler Kratz

Vincent Daranyi

16 Students

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Aug2-SF-High-Tech-Companies
"Mon, August 2, 9 am - 12 noon

Networks and Computing Tour of San Francisco High Tech Companies NCS Off site 

Alison Lewis
Andrew Fursman
Ankur Jain
Bill Bing
Brad Kohlenberg

Connor Dickie
David Dalrymple
Emma Brooke
Everson Lopes
Jan Jungclaus
--
Juan Lopez
Julielynn Wong
Luca Escoffier
Maggie Jack
Michael Chen

Michael Jensen
Miguel Oroz
Nolene Naidu
Raycho Raychev
Robertq Denning
-
Ronen Amit
Santiago Bilinkis
Tony Lyu
Yara Shaban
Zain Jaffer

25 Students

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul29-Return-to-Google
"Thursday
7/29/2010
9:00-12:00
Networks and Computing Systems Workshop 
Return to Google 
NCS 
Offsite 

x Andrew Fursman
Ankur Jain
x Claudia Olsson
David Hutchison - swapped out
David Roberts

x Diva Tommei
Elizabeth Brook
Eric Ezechieli
Eugenie Rives
Everson Lopes
-
Fabio Teixeira
Jan Jungclaus
Jason Dunn
Javier Mares
John Graves - swapped in
Jorge Fernandez

Juan Lopez
Julian Ugarte
Julio Silva
Justin Pahara
Kidist Zeleke
-
Luca Escoffier
Maggie Jack
Michael Jensen
Miguel Oroz
Nolene Naidu

Ronen Amit
Rosa Chan
Sam Thorp
San Ko
Santiago Bilinkis
-
Steve Cronin
Tigist Ashenaffi
Tony Lyu
Vincent Daranyi
Zain Jaffer

35 students

Thursday
7/29/2010
9:00-12:00
Networks and Computing Systems Workshop 
Return to Google 
NCS 
Offsite 

x Andrew Fursman
Ankur Jain
x Claudia Olsson
David Hutchison - swapped out
David Roberts

x Diva Tommei
Elizabeth Brook
x Eric Ezechieli
x Eugenie Rives
x Everson Lopes
-
x Fabio Teixeira
x Jan Jungclaus
Jason Dunn
x Javier Mares
xJohn Graves - swapped in
Jorge Fernandez

Juan Lopez
Julian Ugarte
Julio Silva
Justin Pahara
x Kidist Zeleke
-
x Luca Escoffier
Maggie Jack
Michael Jensen
x Miguel Oroz
x Nolene Naidu

Ronen Amit
Rosa Chan
Sam Thorp
San Ko
Santiago Bilinkis
-
Steve Cronin
Tigist Ashenaffi
Tony Lyu
Vincent Daranyi
Zain Jaffer

35 students

Manuel
Brad Templeton

8:37 Brad: So, how many of you have heard of this company we are going to see today?
First speaker in charge of Google's energy programs.
Turns out if you buy a server
Most expensive part if electricity that will run through it
Google has biggest electricity bill in the world.

Second guy, Google Earth project.
Go into their surround wall ...
some when to future flight, monitors in a circle.
Want to show us that.
Get to eat at Charlie's cafe.

For exec program ...

8:40
So Charlie was the SU chef.
Really wanted to have you guys do this on bicycle.
Just turn right here.
About 2.5 miles.
We'll pay this bus company about $100 per mile.

Eric: You can grab bikes in the Googleplex.

Google believes in bike transport. They have racks unlocked.
Very distinctive coloring.
Bike trail goes along Stevens Creek.
Two bike trails on either side of the Creek.

We are going today to ... not the first Google building.
Susan -
sister of woman who is now Sergie's wife
Silicon Graphics
Half the buildings here are Google buildings.

Eric: How many people here?
Brad: Don't know the number.
Officially not to take NASA bikes off campus.

There is a Google street view car.
[compact car with red ball of cameras mounted on roof]

Here is the movie house that is close to you.

Here are the offices of 23andMe.
You all got your results for that.

OK.

So Google decided very early on to spend a lot of money to make employees happy.
They got more publicity from having a masseuse when they only had 15 employees.
All kinds of free food. Feeding employees lunch means they work more hours.
The \"Google 20\" is the 20 pounds you gain when you go to work there.

[Arrival at Google 8:47]

8:57 [Badges]
[Display at reception shows scrolling list of searches]
9:05
Chris DeBono: At noon, lunch downstairs.
Dan Reicher, Director of Climate Change and Energy Initiatives, Google
danreicher@google.com
http://www.google.com/profiles/115823111358944655133
http://topics.nytimes.com/topics/reference/timestopics/people/r/dan_reicher/index.html

9:06 Good morning.
Don't know a lot about Singularity University.
Sounds like a very exciting program.
You are a very diverse group.
Welcome to Google.
I didn't get hired by Google because I know anything about search.
I know about energy and the environment.
At age 7, I was a cub scout. 
Parkas trimmed in wolverine fur.
I said to my mother, \"how could they sell this parka.\"
So she said, write them a letter.
They discontinued selling this item.

Worked on President's commission for accident on Three Mile Island.
Love Canal
Stanford Law School
Worked as Asst Attorney General
Cases in nuclear waste
7 years at NRDC
Policy person
Spent a lot of time going after DOE
Chief of Staff
Asst Sec for Renewable Energy in Clinton admin.
Excess of $1 b budget to do all sorts of good things.

Went to VC backed business
Private Equity Capital - investors in late stage projects for clean energy.
Until Google decided to create
Google.org - philanthropic arm.
Made shift into the core of the company. Involved in the 
Sit with engineers.

Brad: How many on Energy team [4]

What are the other 4 teams?

Brad: How many went to Bloom? [8]

In my very building.

Brad: Moore's law - the power law.
Getting fast without getting too hot.
Earlier lecture.

Don't ask me about the first. I'm not an engineer.

At the core for me has been this passion for energy and the environment.
Used a whole array of tools to get things done.

Climate change.
TIME Special Report
Decline of phytoplankton.

- Escalating Carbon emissions
- This will not be easy ...
83% Reductino by 2050

- \"The best way to predict the future is to invent it.\" Alan Kay
extraordinarily exciting ways of getting at it, with lots of benefits.
Trillions will need to be invested.
Keep up with demand
address security issues
big deal
major economic stake.

We did Google clean energy 2030.
What is we were really going to ramp down on coal.
Job creation
capital needs
It was illuminating.
JG: Available
http://knol.google.com/k/clean-energy-2030#

- Clean energy job potential
Clean energy 2030 could create 9 million net new jobs
-No silver bullet - lots of 5% to 10% solutions
We'll do it a whole host of ways.
A combination.

- The Elements of Success
Technologies Policies Finance triangle
around
Sustainable Energy Future

Engineers think what is the fix
without thinking about capital.
What are the risks the financial community
Local, state, federal.
Carbon
Efficiency

The more you address with these three in mind -
Part of the stop/start approach - most of us are stuck at one corner of that triangle.

Why is Google involved?
- we are a significant consumer
- we are committed to building a clean energy future
- we have a talented group of engineers who want to help tackle critical energy challenges
- we believe there is inadequate investment in R&D, technology companies and innovative products
- Our employees and products can help

- Tomorrow's Smart Grid
Renewable Source -> ...

- But Edison Would Recognize Today's U.S. Grid
Brad: Tesla would recognize it.
We've got a long, long way to go to turn this antiquated grid into a smart grid.

Where do you start?
With Efficiency. Low hanging fruit. Low hanging fruit grows back.
The things people want are the services.
\"Cold beer and hot showers\" - Lovins

Low and no-cost stuff is all on effiiciency side.
All here today in large measure at very low cost.

Exciting things from solar to advanced fossil tech are all at the other end.

Everson: GHG?
Green House Gas

McKenzie curve. Low cost to high cost.

Boring old refridgerator. Used to use almost 2000kWh/year.
Now, can't sell one that uses more than 450 kWh/year
Source: US DOE
Due to 2001 Standard

- Building a Fridge to the 21st Century
(pun on Bridge)

Brad: Take a MWh off grid with solar. $1000
Replace fridge: $100.
So lowered demand for electricity that calling solar company, they said
\"your system is too small\"
It costs a lot lot lot more today for solar than for more efficient fridge.

our take on this at Google is information
If you can't measure it you can't improve it.
energy bill - numbers no one understands.
You owe X
Imagine a grocery store, no prices on anything.
Not how people shop for food.
But that is how we shop for energy in our home.
- Informed consumers:
How many kW-h do you use?
What appliances use the most?
What time of day do you use the most?
How much have you spent?
What is most cost effective?

Q: Is it just that electricity is so cheap?

For some people, it will not matter.
some people, given 

- ET meets IT
Bahavioural stuff -
If I just give you information - gets you 5-15% savings.
If you realize 35 year old fridge is costing you a lot ...
if smart devices are making deals all the time - a lot of broader benefits.

Back to the triangle.
Vision
Every household will have real-time access

iGoogle home page link:
\"Knowledge is Less Power\"

- How Google PowerMeter Works
GE announced device which clips to fusebox

- Twitter / Began using Google PowerMeter yesterday. Decided it's time to buy a
more-efficient clothes dryer today.

Pool pump running constantly.
Furnace blower.

Q: How do power companies feel?

It depends. In CA, it is in the interest for utilities to help you save.
In other parts, they don't.

Brad: If energy use is in the daytime.
Peak load lower.

In certain parts of the country.

Q: Company services?

ours if focused on homes. We and others are helping commercial. Savings are bigger, easier to get and further along.
Some progress made.
Not nearly enough.
Vast, cheap opportunity.

Next: vehicles.
- TOM'S SHELL
Regular ARM
Premium LEG

RechargeIt.org
Prius
After market Ford Escapes
Plug-in Hybrid

On tech side: 
fleet - charge up under large
1.5 MW PV
Hymotion L5 Lithium Power

Google employees use this.
Hire professional drivers to drive 2000 m like average consumer.

Prius 93.5
Escape 49.1
Eric: Can I take a picture of this? 
Yes.
Q: Cost?
Complicated answer.
3 cent British Colombia hydro ...
Cheaper to fill up on electricity 

Brad: How many kW h to count as a gallon of gas?

Depends on the car.
Smart charging.
Good and not so good ways to charge.
100 degrees at 6 PM, everyone plugs in.
Better to plug in at night.
Beyond that, raises a set of opportunities to charge a large number of cars.
Wind in CA blows at night when we least need it - but what if you had millions of cars
to charge?
Simple example of smarter application
Integrate new appliance - chargable car.

Drove Chevy Volt. Fantastic car.
Not a pure electric. Hybrid gas/electric. Gas runs engine to charge battery. \"Serial hybrid\"
Broad interest coming.

Eric: Mileage per gallon?

Don't know if Chevy has said.

Q: Does it make sense? 

That is their judgement. Parallel vs serial - debate has gone on for decades.
GM's view: let's just run everything through the electrical system.
Rather than a separate drive system.

Nissan- all electric makes more sense.

Q: Tesla- lower cost?

Very excited to add real cars to our fleet.
We have employees.

Brad: Is an employee here with his and hers Teslas.

Interesting place to be testing. Good data collection.

- RE\x3cC: Renewable Electricity Cheaper than Coal
Need to compete much more directly with primary source of electricity

\" Where oil fields are really found, in the final analysis, in the minds of men \"

= Renewables Can't Yet Complete with Coal

Others are coming down cost curve. Can we speed up?

R&D.
Put money into universities and labs
Policy 
Investment

On tech front : 
big mirrors in the desert - how to lower the cost of the mirrors
Solar Thermal
High Capacity Wind
Enhanced Geothermal
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_geothermal_system

- Internal R&D CSP Focus
Two areas:
Engines: looking beyond steam

- Enhanced Geothermal
high risk ..
Vast and ubiquitous
base-load
Fracture rock, put water down there

No scientific show stoppers
- at 3.5 km, tens of thousands of MW
- at 6.5 km

Brad: What could go wrong?

Chris: EGS / hot rock
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_geothermal_system

Water you put down can just go away.
Q: What do you put down?

Fracture rock.
Put little balls in water to keep cracks open.

Requirements for 

Brad: Verticle

Gasland movie

\"Fracking\"
Lots of natural gas to be collected.

Q: Risk of radon?
Whatever is in the water, could come up.

I'm not sitting here today telling you this is the answer.
This is one of the more creative ones.
What is exciting is the size of the resource.
Nevada - 145,000 MW.
Texas - ...
Just the size.

Another thing that has happened.
A lot of technological advances
Altarock
Potter Drilling - new low cost drill could get you to these

- Clean Tech Investments
eSolar
Bright Source

Brad: Larry Brilliant, spoke. Managed Google.org

Potter Drilling - drill with heat, not tip.

Q: Graph, potential at 10 km down. How do we know?
In Texas, yes.
In other parts, we know less. Increasing interest to go to those depths.
Data quite rich in West.
You'll hear announcements about the size of this resource in places that would be surprising.

Eric: How much efficiency gain?
A lot.
McKenzie study.

Eric: 50%
Depends on the category.
Electricity
Transportation
Industry
It is very large and cheap.
That is why we have to start there.
Other countries have done a lot better.
One reason I don't dispair about climate is the number of ways we could conserve.

Average home in US, cut bills 20-40% fairly cost effectively.

Q: Any other techniques to go down?
Lots of models from shallower wells. I don't know what else you can do besides direct measurement.

Invested in wind in N. Dakota.
Power purchase agreement - 110 MW project in Iowa.
Also investing at end - big projects built - sizable and aggressive way.

Policy:
Dog finally caught the car.
Stimulus package - 
worked on Energy stimulus. Go to work - suggest speding $1 bn, 15 min later - \"triple that\"
All spent in 2 years.
Plug in cars
Big money 5/6/7 bn into smart grid
Whole host of things that will make a big difference.

One house passed carbon cap.
Have not made much progress in Senate.
May be money related to oil spill in Gulf.

Q: Add up all the agencies.
How much energy increase?

Q: Google talks, Thorium? In money for research?

Stimulus money being spent in areas including advanced nuclear. Don't know specifically about thorium. Not biggest bet right now in advanced nuclear.

- CEDA Clean Energy Deployment Admin
Silicon Valley gets pilot stage. First few commercial scale projects - $500m - for a single project.
Private equity won't touch this.
The \"valley of death\" scale-up

- e-KNOW - Electricity Consumer Right to Know Act
Ed Marke (D-MA) introduced bill on March 16

- U.S. Support for Energy Research and Development
Gallagher and Anadon (2010)
eRD Project / Harvard Kennedy School / Belfer Center

- Confusing map of 
labs
hubs
programs
ARPA-e need to clean up

- CHINA!
As a country, they have made decision - bright future in clean energy
Very large amounts of money to develop and deploy
Deal with valley of death
Very healthy competition.
Involved EU as well.
Trillion dollar markets at stake.

NYTIMES: China racing ahead.

- Kay quote again.
Keep triangle in mind.
Lot of opportunity. Lot of fun. Go save the planet and make some money at the same time.
9:59 [applause]

Q: How much is stimulus money an opportunity for old energy companies?

Q: Policy stability?
China does have an advantage.

Q: Google Europe.
Just did a major event in London.
Nice thing about Google - easy to move information around.

Q: When are the Google power measurement devices available?
SDG&E
It is coming.

Q: Small companies starting to pitch meters.
Is there an API for 3rd party meters?

That is basically the decision that each of the utilities are making.

Brad: Google energy use?

Data centers - green up energy supply going into data centers.
10 years spent on efficiency, now going into supply

10:12 [applause]

10:21
Building the Geo Web
Lior Ron, Group Project Manager, Google Maps
http://en.oreilly.com/where2009/public/schedule/speaker/4743

Brad: 
Lior: Daniel Kraft, good friend.
Scale. To get to 1 billion people.
Walk you through our current thinking about geo information
10:45, Tanya will join me, give demos.
Environmental / global change.
Very impromptu - usually casual.

- Our goal is to organize the worlds' information geographically- to provide search and browse for all information tied to Place and to provide the data and a UI substrate for context and understanding.

In the process, we are creating a global map of unprecedented comprehensiveness.

- Mirror the World

- GeoEye
We have our own satellite
50 cm resolution
6 years
Online exclusive
It is great to have that sort of independence.

We fly planes.
High Resolution Overhead Imagery
Resolution gets below 50 cm 

Planes doing oblique imagery \"bird's eye view\"

Automated 3D Reconstruction.
Barcelona

All about creating the canvas.
Street View
- > nM miles collected by > n00 vehicles
- Published in 21 (old) countries

Panoramic camera
Inertial momentum unit
Laser scanner
GPS, WiFi antennas

What we get out of it - 
laser scan, get facades

- Understanding the 3D Space from Imagery

Demos:
castro st. mountain view

Automatically show the places in Street View.
Casa Lupe
Bank of the West
completely interactive

Some of the magic is from OCRing of text in the picture.
Pinpoint the specific location of the business

Here is the coverage in front of the ferry building in SF

We also go where cars can't travel
Here is our bike and ski resort cameras

This guy is an engineer, a friend of mine.

Interior imaging.
Here is the panoramic camera, mounted on a cart
Allows us to go into businesses, get inner space view.

Q: How easy to blur faces and plates of cars.

We worked very hard on that. 
Very hard.
Big team working on that.
Fascinating. Widely different.
Flickr map of how people set their default sharing.
What can be done with the imagery - once we blur, we don't actually keep originals.

- Open for Users
So that is the mirror world.
Sensors
stitch all together
Create the perfect canvas
once we have that canvas - open to users to express themselves.

Q: What is last continent?

Antarctica

Q: ... how big?

Must engage world to build base map.

> 500M Earth activations
> 1M hours per day
> 50% of the world's population covered by high-res imagery

Early days:
Chinese submarine

Users using markup to put metro system maps
All of the streets in one city
My Maps
100 m locations that people have entered

- Panoramio and photos.
People annotate

- 3D. Building maker. 20 seconds and you are done.

Tokyo
Kabul
Buda
University buildings
(c) 2007

Evolution of the GeoWeb
- May 2007
every piece of lat/long on the web
every 6 months - so just within 2 years
availability of canvas
ballooning of GPS devices
We can serve and organize for users
Every single geographic point we index.
Lines are routes of planes.
Lot of heat in China.

Once we got to that level, need to put information in a more ordered way.
Thought about opening for people to edit.
Pretty popular 
- Let Users Edit Everything.
Google Map Maker
google.com/mapmaker
http://www.youtube.com/user/GoogleMapMaker

Allows users to map everything they want.
Hybrid

Kaladgi = somewhere in India
Empowered user - trusted user so addition is added.

Little Tobago.
Others do golf courses
All one way streets in Argentina
Mapping under the clouds in Ivory Coast

Madurai, India - before /after
The community empowering itself.

Santiago, Chile
Go to YouTube mapmaker channel to see animations
http://www.youtube.com/user/GoogleMapMaker

Brad: Why not import Open Street Map?

Open Street Map - an open data source.
Having discussions with them.
Technical is one challenge
The other is licensing
Copy left issue
We have made this data open for download for non-commercial purposes
We donated post-earthquake images to Haiti

Everything mapped by users over the last 2 years.
- A global, accessible base map
Teaching class in Africa
- San Francisco
For error reporting
Every point here is someone shouting \"this is wrong, fix it\"
We get on it pretty fast. More than 5000 submissions ...

Q: Done manually?

For now. Goal is to empower users.
Most would push red button \"this is wrong\" 

Q: Automatically? 

More semi-automatic stuff. Very tough vision problem.
Vision gets you to 95% accuracy, but you don't know when you are wrong.
A lot of semi-automatic.

Q: Analytics? Georeference? Say, area of lake?

We are building some.
Provide data - for non-commercial.
100s of partners including UN. Population density.

Q: How do we request it? I tried Hong Kong - cannot map my home.

Open in 169 countries, HK not included. Will roll country by country.
Tricky to get from existing quality to user only quality. 
HK will take some time.

Click on Earth.
Now getting 3D in the browser
I can zoom to downtown SF.

What do we do with imagery and how refresh it?
Dots are pictures.
A comprehensive world of imagery.
Can zoom from one photo to another.

Users will keep this up to date.
All based on users. Just going to accelerate.

Brad: Singularity University question: where in 5 - 15 years.

Every person will have a mobile device.
Everything will be continuous location.
GPS.
GeoWeb is going to 100x, a gazillion times bigger.
I'm most excited now about going into a place.

Casa Lupe - some random place in Mountain View.
Reviews.
Aspects about that place.
Related my maps
Ballooning of information.

Used to be only 10 reviews - now we have 1000s of data items on every place.
Use cases - what can I actually do entering the store.
What have my friends told me = a search within place
Hyper local
Mobile
A lot of information about places

Q: 

Drive click through.

Give context to governments.
Google Earth outreach team
Usage of technologies to better give context

lior@google.com
If you have any questions about maps, let me know.
Have some fun. Good luck.

11:00 [applause]
Tanya Kean
Outreach team
NGOs use Google Maps and SketchUp

Favorite example:
Political advocacy - Appalachian Voices
10 people and a dog
So let's zoom in.
Built this layer -
mountain top removal for coal mining.
100's of mountains, as far as the eye can see, have been blown up.
Wanted to show what was on the hillsides above them
scale of destruction.
Used to fly politicians over the area - only way to see the scale.
Then they discovered Google Earth

We showed them how this would be done.
Guided tour of mountain top removal. 
Embedded video of actual blasts. It is horrendous.
Also got before and after imagery.
This is slider, from before to after.

Goal is to change Clean Water Protection Act regarding overburden.
Took people on this tour. In Google Earth - you can actually see the blast holes.
This is a tool for democratization of the web.

I have a billion examples.

One final thing. Show scale of equipment
You can see drag line in satellite imagery.

SketchUp shows a model - with a pickup truck/person for scale.

-
One other example: Defenders of Wildlife.
Empower people - give place to put videos of oil, dolphins found on beach.
You can also see amount of oil and gas platforms in the area -- which is just insane.
Next to that, you can see the sea turtle nests in the area.

-
Climate Change
What climate change is.
Because there are so many doomsayer stories
we wanted to show some positives
WWF
Jane Goodall
Ted Danson
to show what they are going to mitigate

This is one from Arnold 
\"The tour we are about to take - things we can do to overcome those challenges -
average temp rose 2 degrees - if GHG not reduced - can rise another 7 degrees.\"
All created in Google Earth with narrated tour free version.
Pop in MP3.
Relatively simple thing to create. Anybody can create one.

Q: Way to measure to the amount of solar wattage?
Say Vegas vs San Francisco?

Most of what we would do is work with someone who does that.

Brad: You could do it yourself. Not that difficult.

Q: Analyzation?

Google Earth engine - with such a rich database - if we could run spectrosignature analysis. Could be a really powerful tool for the world.
Search for Google Earth engine.

11:12 [applause]

Brad: My favorite - Darfur.
Really amazing translation project. Arabic. 

Franz Josef Och
och@google.com

[begins talk in German]

- Statistical Machine Translation: Challenges and Opportunities

Always hard to follow Earth and maps.

In order to access all the world's information then the language barrier is a significant barrier.
English- only 50%.
If only Arabic -only 1%
Other languages, even smaller percentage.
Have had for ~10 years.
Early on at Google - rule based. 3rd party.
French / Spanish / Italian.
No Arabic. Just to/from English.
Quality not so good.
Can we change that?
Better.
Many more languages.
Build upon the strength of Google - large data / computational resources

Started research project - very large resources used on small amounts of text
Became this product
Replaced old system.

Example:
Italian text.
Compare: Human or Machine Translation?
Quite hard to tell which is which. Both have small mistakes.
Italian is a place where translation works better.
Hindi to English - problematic.

Baseline is not perfect. Humans make mistakes too.
I would have grammar mistakes in German to English.

Q: Comparing to poor translation ...
25 cents per word.

- Improvements in recent years
Statistical approach / learning
More sophisticated translastion models
more training data
larger models
more research groups, increased interest

Tries to mimc what humans do. Can learn a lot without our having to teach it.

More sophisticated models did not rely on word-by-word as much.

Harder to find translated training data before.
Canadian Hansard.
Web and many translations out there - millions/billions of words and growing.
More data in, the better.
Much larger models - the ones we are using now are 100s of GB. 
Used to need to run on 50MB machine.
Distributed model.
Order of magnitude more.

Q: Does too much data hurt performance?
What is a well formed sentence.
For parallel - when we double - constant improvement, but less and less
For language - always a constant improvement when you double.

Q: Read this in English - you might be teaching it to be stupid. Examples could be worse than system.

New challenge we face is that translations we have came from our own system.
Need to avoid training on our own old texts.

Poor quality translation - so long as it doesn't have systematic mistakes - random errors get smoothed out.

Q: Is system able to detect more fidelity? 
As your system gets better - but when you are better than others?

We are not there yet.

Q: How do you improve the web's information to improve the quality?
Is that the only source?

On the web, there are different - pages, sites that show translations. Frequent for Chinese (English terms in brackets).
Useful training data - new terms.
Twitter to Chinese.

Q: Constantly screen web for new?
Yes.

Last point - lot of interest now in machine translation.
Darmouth conference famous - 
turned out to be not true.
Good to be cautious.
In 1956, probably now we have achieved that.

- Phrase learning
Word alignments

- More parallel data is better
Test data BLEU - rough guideline - at 0.2 translation starts to become useful

Q: Subjective score?

One reason MT had revolution - automatic evaluation metrics.
Hard to make progress. Very expensive.
Metric used here is compare MT output with profressional translation.

Q: Still human in the loop.

Basically, once data is annotated, we can use it a million times to score.
Say you forget \"NOT\" in a sentence, very different match.
Now we have this very reliable metric.
Produce a translation,
a minute later we can tell if it is good or not.

Brad: Why is Portuguese so good ... German/English not?

German is a very challenging language - verb at end.
People who learn German - have to remember to put verb on the stack, then pop it at the end.
Noun compounds.
Sentence structure is more complex.
English sentences simpler.

Q: Portuguese?

All the Roman empire.

Q: Why Finnish hard?

Rich morphology. Next slide interesting.
Chinese - no morphology - makes it hard.
Fininish - all kinds of stuff met by one word.

Q: 1 would be exactly get human translation.

Human alternative would get 0.5 / 0.6.

Q: At what level is it \"human like\"?

This metric is not a judge of best translation.
Certain style issues not measured.
Metric - the more we make advances, the more we need to throw that metric away.
Humans 50-60% here.

Q: Attempting to translate metaphorical language? \"Let's book it\"
Make a literaly translation.

May make literally. But user comments - when users see we got meaning of \"rains cats and dogs\" right, people are amazed.
We try to look at everything in that sentence.
Next step is to try to take prior sentence into account.

Q: Real time?

Speech recognition makes real progress too. Combined, quality really drops.
We have Google translate android app - very exciting to move to speech recognition side
of things.

In Google Goggles - take picture of sign and have it translated.
lot of improvement.
Hope is if you combine those technologies - don't understand? Just put phone there.

Q: Conherence? In English, if not sure. Put in search engine.
Do you use this kind of checking? 
Find where sentence has been written before.

When people use our system - ideally we'd capture edit.
Very useful information for us.
Google Translator toolkit - when you use that to translate -
pre-fills translation with MT. Just edit mistakes, gives improvements.
Feedback loops are extremely important.
If you have speech recognition in cloud - and then you click - that would be a good training element.
Next time this specific dialect - recognized much better.
Something we are working on.

1M 10M 100M words. Probably slows down a little bit.
For some languages, morphology relates to number of words.
1B words - even better.

Q: How can you reference one word's multiple meanings?

What we do when we train - infer 
Source / translation - which word to which word or phrase to phrase.

Create statistics for relationships.
Look to context.

- Trend - more languages

2010
Haitian Creole
Armenia
Azerbaijani
Basque
Georgian
Urdu

Biggest language so far not in there is Bengali.
Don't have Latin either.

Integration into Chrome and toolbar.

Q: Translators? Erase their job.

So far, professionals - this can help them.
MT standard for technical.

Hard to predict how soon we will have very high quality.
Will be harder and harder.

Q: What are units?

What you get from Google trends.
Porportional to overall integral.

Want to improve quality, number of languages.
Other is integration. Make available where needed.
Cross language search.

Bar allows you to select other languages. It selects for you.
You can surf the Arabic web in English.

YouTube subtitles.

Android translated.

Q: Type text - send in another language.

Google chat - translation bot invited into chat.
Third man in there, anything you see in there - could be N-way chat.

Search for Google translate chatbot.
11:49 [applause]

Chris: Propose lunch then holodeck.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul30-Tesla
"Friday
7/30/2010
10:37am

On bus to Tesla
Elon Musk
Recruiting people
Two operations centers
Production in Menlo Park
HQ in Palo Alto
Test driving place - we can arrange that.
10:45 Jose stops talking [you had to be there to understand]

12:19 back on bus
Lyuba Wolf
Lyuba@teslamotors.com
Kate Randall
University Programs
krandall@teslamotors.com

Lunch in 583C
Daniel Hillis

Open Science Summit
Jose - final presentation at 5pm

Sunday
Black Gold - about coffee. Sushi and pizza
Dir of Millen Project, Jerome Glen
State of the Future
Presenting Monday morning - 2020 advising gov't of Kuwait

First trillion dollar company was PetroChiina
7 opportunities
1 - 1/2 hours in room A.

http://www.solarfeeds.com/ecofriend/13648-the-electric-lamborghini-rompighiaccio-concept-by-denis-archambault-

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul27-Global-Business-Networks
"Tuesday
July 27, 2010 
9:00 - 12:00 
Foresight Strategies and Scenarios
GBN (Global Business Networks) 
FSF 
B.583C 
Atrium

Note: Today is a plenary except for students who submitted approved proposals for Independent Study. (Please submit a half page proposal to Dan Barry (dan.barry@singularityu.org) prior to this session.) 

Paul Saffo to gsp10students

Gentle Colleagues,
As part of their plenary workshop next tuesday, my friends at Global Business Netowork have asked if everyone could complete the following survey. It should take only a few minutes, and I guarantee that you will find the questions thought-provoking!

Link is here ( http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/SingularityU )

best
-p

YOUR DEADLINE IS MIDNIGHT, SUNDAY, JULY 25.

At the bottom of the page is the text of the 56(!) question survey..

9:15 Paul Saffo:
We are really lucky today.
Leading this is Brianne? 
Science Coordinator 

Nancy Murphy
Senior Evangelist at GBN

Alexis Liu
cy.alexis.liu@gmail.com
Canadian National Champion Go Player

Brie: A very fast, quick and dirty trip through scenarios.
Agenda
-9:30 Intro
-10:15 Uncertainties
-11:15 Additional Scenarios
-11:30 Report
-12:00 Q&A

Our organization uses scenario planning.
Started at Shell Oil.
Used some in the military.
Founders came from there. Took it in a number of new directions.
Have worked with governments, ... non-profits.

- What are scenarios?
They are stories about the future.
Telling them drives better decisions.
They are data driven, but really stories.
They are not predictions - they are hypotheses.
When you can hold multiple hypotheses in your head, it helps you adapt to change over time.

If things start happening in years 1 and 2, you can see what those changes are pointing toward.

- Scenarios help us resist the urge to oversimplifly
Help us pull apart the most uncertain things
For those who did the survey on-line, rate both importance and uncertainty.

So this idea leads to this maxim:
It is better to be imprecisely right than precisely wrong.

Sometimes people in role of making precise predictions are threatened by this orientation.

- \"There is no reason for any individual ...
- \"Internal sales forecast for PCs for the 1980s: 295,000. Actual 25 million.\" - IBM

- sort complex information
Observed -> categories

- Principles
Use outside in thinking
Tendency to think of the things we see every day.
Start with really big picture / context -
Things beyond our control
Things we will have to react to.

Synthesize Diverse Perspectives
Can be very complicated. 
Frequently you get requests for \"industry experts\"
Non-profits ask for friendlies.
So, we might bring in people with government perspective

Take the Long View
Sometimes 20-25 years.
2/3 years - project from today 
Just some deviation
10 yrs - things can be really different.
Walk that back to 7 / 5
Start at 10.

- outside-in
We think of context having 5 categories
STEEP
Social
Tech
Env
Econ
Political

You've got uncertainty cards with dots from each of these categories.

Any questions?

- Social changes -
Graph of OECD - total meat consumption
Projected very high growth in developing countries
http://www.oecd.org/

People eat more meat moving into the middle class - except maybe in India.

China consumes half as much meat per capita as the US, but more than twice the total.

If middle class incomes go up, will see surge in meat demand, and hence water.

Omnivore's Dilemma
Food Inc

Jamie Oliver Food Revolution
Safeway Organic Food

Mainstream changes in what people eat.
Social trend we are watching.

Looking at the way 
CSA - Community Supported Agriculture
1990 60 farms
Today 1500
Many other farms do part of there distribution this way.

New people in agriculture.
New influx of people.

T in STEEP.
When in grad school - Monsanto released first crops.
People have missed what has happened in the breeding world.
We can take advantage of genomics - completely getting around the genetically modified debate.

Ratooning - 
If you didn't have to replant seed every year, you could dramatically increase productivity.
Saves soil.

Craig Venter - collect bacteria. We have no idea what bacteria are capable of.
They have genes that are very easy to move into other organisms. 
Could resist salt, drought.
Hydrogels -
Imagine what would happen if you didn't have to use so much water.
Algae - 
Could hold interesting genomic

ST, now Economics.

See price volatility in food going up.
Nothing suggesting it will stop any time soon.
Can we stay on the same Y-scale for this graph?

JG: Or volatility could go away ...

Good point.

- No easy explanation: the mystery of colony collapse disorder
Major honeybee losses 
1/3 of US agriculture depends on bee pollination
Major losses in fruits and nuts

Some things in monoculture we still don't control.

Steve: 2009? 2010?
Slightly better.
People have come up with ways. Bee-mune - supposed to make your bees immune.

Eric: This happened massively in Europe as well. They found it was an additive on corn seeds. Taking that away solved it.

This is great - the mystery - in some places you can change that, elsewhere you change something else.

There are environmental uncertainties out there.

STEE, Political.

Africa is becoming a hotbed of activity for multinational growing operations.
Investments around Africa. Corn, rice, vegetables, flowers.
We want to lease a bunch of hectares.
Lots in Ethiopia.
Top ministers saying, \"We are making our bets on agriculture.\"
Could go well.
Or not.
We've seen some failures already.
Labor issues.
Land taken from people already using it.
Can paint a really brilliant future - economic development barriers fundamentally change -- or not.

Agricultural chemicals.
Hurting salmon, frogs.
Kids in school
People responding to have DDT.

New agreement called REACH - requires safety testing for more than 30,000 chemicals.
Burden of proof was on you to show it wasn't UNsafe.
Now it is on you, the manufacturers, to run tests to show safety.
Hard to estimate savings.
companies around the world, if they want to do business with the EU

Uncertainties we are tracking.

- fast forward
Play with, live in the uncertainties.
Expand the way thinking about the future.
We start every process with the focal question:

\"What will the US food system look like in 2020?\"

There are a lot of global uncertainties here.
On your tables:
Cards -
Same info on handouts -

====

Here are some additional docs for futures studies and the power point as a pdf...
-- 
Ross Shott
Executive Relations
Singularity University
281-704-6865
ross@singularityu.org

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We are creating vignettes.
This process is much more exploratory.
Combine 4 cards at a time from 3 different domains.
See what kinds of stories you can tell.

Take and Energy example.
Pace of China's energy demand - use only one side: rapid increase
Oil: high and volatile price
Slow development of alternative energy
US/China on collision course

Call this \"the energy cold war\"

First story - The Official Future 
Most current major players tell themselves.

Usually this is an industry and they can tell their own official future.
Kind of agree within your table - if you are taking government or private sector perspective.

First thing:
which cards, which end points.
Have cards chosen and story by 10:30. Go.

USDA Report: America\u2019s Changing Appetite: Food Consumption and Spending to 2020
https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B3BeYKoQJeyQODc2YmVmZGItYjEyNi00M2E4LWEwMDctODdlMmI5NDhiNjBj&hl=en

10:30
Now flip 3 cards and tell a story that directly conflicts the official future.
Call this the \"Alternative Future\"

From http://www.ers.usda.gov/

Food Security Assessment, 2010-20
http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/GFA21/GFA21_reportsummary.html
Outlook Report No. (GFA-21) 64 pp, July 2010 http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/GFA21/
Indicators of food security point to improvement between 2009 and 2010 for the 70 countries
covered in this report. The number of food-insecure people is estimated to decrease from about
953 million in 2009 to 882 million in 2010. Food-insecure people are defined as those consuming less than the nutritional target of 2,100 calories per day per person.
Any increase or decrease highlights the fact that consumption for large portions of the populations in lower income countries is clustered around the nutritional target. This implies that even a brief economic slowdown or food production shock can result in millions of additional people being subjected to food insecurity. Conversely, a slight improvement in economic conditions can propel people past the nutritional target.
What Is the Issue?
The 2010 results are based on the economic recovery assumptions by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is cautiously optimistic, but admits that there is a downside risk of an economic retreat. Among key factors influencing economic assumptions is the unknown issue of capital flows. According to the IMF, capital inflows will remain volatile because the current global economic rebound is mainly driven by major fiscal stimulus in support of credit markets, the impacts of which could be eroded before the end of 2010. In Food Security Assessment, 2010- 20, ERS researchers estimate and project the number of food-insecure people regionally and in each of the 70 developing countries for 2010-2020.
What Did the Study Find?
Food security in 70 developing countries is estimated to have improved between 2009 and 2010,
due in part to economic recovery in many of these countries. The number of food-insecure people in the developing countries analyzed by ERS researchers is estimated to decrease 7.5 percent from 2009 to 882 million in 2010. The number of food-insecure people at the aggregate level will not improve much over the next decade, declining by 1 percent from 2010 to 2020. While there will be notable improvements in Asia and Latin America, the situation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is projected to deteriorate after 2010.
Despite the unfavorable long-term projections, SSA\u2019s food security situation improved between
2009 and 2010 following stronger economic growth and a continuation of the recent upward trend in food production. The number of food-insecure people in the region is estimated at 390 million in 2010, a near 12-percent decline from 2009. The distribution gap\u2014the amount of food needed to raise consumption in each income group to meet the nutritional target of 2,100 calories per person per day\u2014also declined, albeit negligibly. Despite the improvement, nearly half of the region\u2019s population remains foodinsecure. In addition, while accounting for only one-quarter of the population of the 70 countries included in this study, the region is estimated to account for 44 percent of the food-insecure people.
As the global economy slowly recovers from the worldwide recession, Asia will continue to make impressive gains in improving food security as the projected number of food-insecure people is projected to decline from 433 million in 2010 to 320 million in 2020. In absolute terms, the number of food insecure in Asia is large; however, in relative terms Asia is doing better than SSA. In 2010, Asia will account for nearly 64 percent of the population of the 70 developing
countries included in this report, but will account for barely half of the estimated 882 million total food-insecure people.
By 2020, the number of food-insecure people in SSA is projected to exceed 500 million out of a total population of roughly 1 billion. In other words, without any significant increase in investment or change in historical trends of major indicators, more than half of the region\u2019s population will consume less than the nutritional target. The region\u2019s food security position
will also deteriorate relative to the other regions included in this report. In 2020, the region will account for only 27 percent of the population of the 70 countries, but it will have about a 59-percent share of the total number of food-insecure people.
The long-term projections are made assuming continuation of current trends in several key factors affecting long-term food security\u2014agricultural production, income, foreign exchange availability, and population growth. The question is how changes in these variables would affect the results. To do this, ERS developed two scenarios. The first scenario doubles capital inflows by 2020 to examine the impacts of improved food import capacity in all study countries. The
food security baseline projections assume a constant capital inflow during the projection period.
The second scenario analyzes the effect of targeting the most vulnerable countries with the goal of improving their food production performance. The scenario stems from concerns raised in different forums among governments and donors that without significant improvements in production, vulnerability to shocks such as the global food price crisis of 2008 could continue. To examine the impact on food security of increased agricultural production in low-income countries, the second scenario couples the increase in capital flows from the first scenario with a 50-percent increase in projected grain yields in 2020. The countries selected for this scenario are the 37 in the SSA region and 4 in Central America and the Caribbean. (Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Haiti were selected because they have the highest share of rural population relative to other countries in the region.)
In the first scenario, when capital inflows of the 70 countries are doubled in 2020, the number of food-insecure people is projected to decline 11 percent relative to the 2020 food security baseline projections. Scenario results indicate improvement in all regions. In Asia, the number of food-insecure people declines by 14 percent, in Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) by 31 percent, and in SSA by 8 percent. As expected, the regions that benefit under this scenario are those that are highly import-dependent (LAC) and those where external capital inflows (private and foreign assistance) are high relative to their export earnings (Asia).
The results under the second scenario show a significant improvement in food security in SSA. The number of foodinsecure people falls by 67 percent (from 513 million in 2020 in the food security baseline to 168 million in this scenario). In the selected LAC countries, the number of food-insecure people falls to less than 10 percent in all countries except for Haiti.
How Was the Study Conducted?
All historical and projected data are updated relative to the Food Security Assessment, 2008-09 report. Food production estimates for 2009 are based on data from the United Nations\u2019 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) as of February 2010. Historical production data are from FAO and food aid data are from the World Food Programme (WFP). Financial and macroeconomic data are based on the latest World Bank data, as of February 2010. Projected macroeconomic
variables either are based on ERS-calculated growth rates for the 1990s through the late 2000s or are IMF and World Bank projections. Projections of food availability include food aid, with the assumption that each country will receive the 2006-08 average level of food aid throughout the next decade.
For more information, contact: Shahla Shapouri, Stacey Rosen, May Peters, Felix Baquedano, and Summer Allen

10:48 Next scenario - pick 2 cards you have not used yet. Specify the end points and pass them to the next table.

Goal is first to stretch - 
Find robust scenarios
Use those to structure strategy

11:07
We are in a total anarchic process at this point.
That is fine.
Corporates like more process.
I want to show you one quick slide.
When looking across the set:
1/ is each plausible - not the highest probability - that's the official
Others meet low bar
2/ They do need to be relevant
3/ They need to be challenging
4/ Divergent from each other.
This group - really liked one answer. Telling 3 technology stories.
Get some diversity and outcomes.
How did we get to these uncertainties.
You had some strangely skewed.
Technology uncertainties - through the roof.
Uncertainty ratings were incredibly low.
We made some adjustments for you guys.
You all believe great things about technology. Which is great.
You did not rate the social uncertainties as impactful.
We included some, despite survey data.

In last scenario - stretch plausibility, have fun. This is free form.
Choose three you have not used yet.
Get some experience with the whole range of uncertainty.
Take 10 minutes. Then report outs.

Africa Rules
Californication
Monsanto Dream/Global Nightmare
Revolution
The New Pill - satiates you and gives you nutrients. All done in labs, not on farms.
First thing to note: technological advances was in the initial list - you added it back, that's great.
Would challenge you to make the story plausible.
A little too easy to say, \"you could make it\" but what about the social patterns of eating.

Official Monsantopoly
Monsantorini
Monsingularity - mass discontinuity
As severity of climate change increases, wars over water. Spread of disease.
Alternatives to farmed meat.

Unexpected future: Home Automation of Food Production
climate change and increase in technology - off the grid
Extreme DIY home farming will take over
Have not heard that before

IP protection stops being enforced. Small domestic companies take over
Open Fooding

These last two - only one uncertainty in common. Different paths to get there.
IP side
Consumer side - driven by resource constraints.

Another pattern you see a lot.
To take this forward, move into conversation about which are most important.
What led to similar futures through different paths.
Driven to more robust scenarios.

Climate issues. Volatile prices. Consumers will be worried. But better informed.

This group brought in another uncertainty - IT helping with choices.

Doomsday Wars
Key catalysts - pandemics/disease, use of AI, food security/protectionism
over interdependency brings food to the new fighting ground
Africa becomes only source of new food - superpowers fight over it.

OK.
11:41
Quick word about how people use scenarios.
Generating new insights and ideas.
15-20 min on a story is good for exploration.

Wind tunneling stories across multiple futures.
- How do people use scenarios?
To develop and test strategies
Most common use.
In a company like General Mills - what is most disruptive? what are you least prepared for?
What will you get the most out of? Find connected scenarios, that meet criteria.
Then whole set of processes to help link those visions of the future to decisions 
To generate new insights and ideas
To improve organizational design
To build clarity and confidence.

Water strategy -
North African government.
A lot with corporations - tend to get calls when there is a big change in the environment.
Health Insurance cos, all concerned about US healthcare plan.

Just open it up now.

Project just released with Rockefeller Foundation - role of technology in development.
http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/news/publications/scenarios-future-technology
(with link to 5 MB pdf, 54 page report)
Scenarios with human dimension.
Four scenarios described in this report:
LOCK STEP \u2013 A world of tighter top-down government control and more authoritarian leadership, with limited innovation and growing citizen pushback
CLEVER TOGETHER \u2013 A world in which highly coordinated and successful strategies emerge for addressing both urgent and entrenched worldwide issues
HACK ATTACK \u2013 An economically unstable and shock-prone world in which governments weaken, criminals thrive, and dangerous innovations emerge
SMART SCRAMBLE \u2013 An economically depressed world in which individuals and communities develop localized, makeshift solutions to a growing set of problems

CISCO project coming on evolution of the internet, 3rd week of August.

We always develop scenarios WITH our clients, not for them.
We try to help push them into conversations about normative futures.
In Pharma, we said, \"Which of these futures is best for your company?\"
Then we asked, \"Which of these futures do you want to live in with your family?\"
There was real hesitation.

Big difference between market makers and market takers.

Bring in \"remarkable people\" who are provocateurs 
We have a pretty good idea what are the taboos

Sometimes we get into a room that is very anti-corporate.
Challenge is to get the conversation onto partnerships rather than [dragon slaying]

How did you feel?
Chiara: Process was helpful, interesting.
Luca: Helpful so long as you are proficient.
Yes, it is hard to jump in. Good to have pre-session reading. Multiple perspectives.

This isn't rocket science what we did today.
This kind of exercise you can do in a conversation, with teams.
We have a publication \"What If\" written for non-profits.
Very simple exercises.
http://www.gbn.com/consulting/article_details.php?id=27

https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B3BeYKoQJeyQNDZiNzhkZDktMzNlYy00OGViLWFkOWItNmJkYzUxNTNjM2Rj&hl=en

12:00 [applause]

Thank you to you guys as well.
A consortium interested in dairy.
You'll see a little report of today in the GBN bulletin.
---

Instant Workshop Feedback Week 6
https://spreadsheets.google.com/a/singularityu.org/viewform?formkey=dFB4YWJaTWlQU0JzcDh0Q2lkY0Z5N0E6MQ

--------------------------------------------------------------
Survey text
Please remember that we are not asking you to answer these questions, but rather to rate each issue's importance and uncertainty.

Please rate the importance of each issue to the future of the US food system on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 being \"of minimal or no importance\" and 7 being \"of critical importance.\" Please also rate the uncertainty of the outcome of each issue, with 1 being \"highly certain\" and 7 being \"highly uncertain.\"
Importance 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Uncertainty 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Comments?

1. Will the changing demands of consumers in emerging markets (e.g., China, India, Brazil, etc.) be met primarily by multinational or domestic food enterprises?

2. Will global attitudes increasingly favor or reject genetically engineered foods?

3. Will US consumers purchase food in familiar ways, from established players, or seek out new vendors,venues and forms of interaction?

4. Will concern about the safety and environmental impacts of food production dramatically change consumer food choices?

5. Will health consciousness have a significantly greater impact on food choices by US consumers?

6. Will different attitudes among youths and young adults towards food, agriculture and the environment have a significant impact on the food system?

7. Will mainstream US consumer attitudes shift more towards hyperconsumption or frugality?

8. Will consumer demand for organic or sustainably produced food rise and fall with the economy, continuing the consumption patterns seen today, or will we experience a step change in demand?

9. Will farming and/or food production become a significantly more or less attractive career path for US adults?

10. Will trust in large agriculture and food companies erode or increase significantly?

11. Will there be significant technological breakthroughs in food processing, packaging or transport?

12. Will there be major breakthroughs in energy production, storage or transport?

13. Will there be major breakthroughs in new kinds of livestock feed or husbandry methods?

14. Will there be major breakthroughs in agricultural waste management?

15. Will new agricultural technologies developed by universities and companies be appropriate and affordable for small farmers?

16. Will there be major breakthroughs in technologies associated with organic and/or biodynamic farming?

17. Will geoengineering and/or geospatial information systems become an effective tool for the food and ag industry?

18. Will there be breakthrough insights produced by medical research on the links between food, agricultural practices and health?

19. Will there emerge widely accepted artificial substitutes for meat?

20. Will we develop pharmaceuticals or other technological means to alter appetite, satiety, and the enjoyment of food?

21. Will innovation in food and agriculture be largely open source or IP protected?

22. Will the established Big Food and Ag players become major drivers of innovation in sustainable agriculture and food production?

23. Will breakthroughs in task automation and smart robotic systems have a major impact on food and agriculture?

24. Globally, will biofuel increase in importance relative to other sources of renewable energy?

25. Will weather and climate change cause major disruptions in US and/or international agriculture?

26. Will emerging crop diseases be controllable locally or cause major disruptions worldwide?

27. Will emerging livestock diseases and/or zoonotic diseases (diseases that are capable of being transferred between humans and animals) be controllable locally or cause major disruptions worldwide?

28. Will water availability (in urban and/or agricultural areas) become a significant locus of conflict and concern in large regions of the US?

29. Will water scarcity drive significant changes in water consumption practices in personal, agricultural, and industrial uses?

30. Will agricultural chemicals and pollution from livestock operations become a major source of environmental concern and action?

31. Will urban agriculture become an effective means of feeding urban populations and/or improving urban communities?

32. Will carbon control and/or trading regimes become widely established?

33. Will more or fewer people produce a portion of their foods in/around their homes?

34. Will international agricultural input and food prices be relatively stable or exhibit extreme volatility?

35. Will the true cost of food \u2013 including currently externalized costs \u2013 be recognized and reflected in pricing?

36. Will the balance of global economic power shift significantly from today?

37. Will globalization proceed at a faster or slower pace than in the last decade?

38. Will the US economy be significantly stronger or weaker than it is today?

39. In the US, will water and land rights be primarily reserved for multinational companies or small/local/family producers?

40. Will there be a proliferation of new business models that effectively challenge the established players in Big Food and Ag?

41. Will governments in developing countries move towards nationalization or privatization of water, land, and other agricultural resources?

42. To what extent will low- and middle-income US consumers be willing to spend larger portions of their incomes on high quality food?

43. Will African agricultural productivity increase dramatically in the next 10 years?

44. Will local economies grow or shrink in relation to much larger scale national and international enterprises?

45. Will consolidation in the agricultural and food industries increase or decrease?

46. Will diverse regional and national regulations about food trump or be trumped by international regulatory regimes (e.g., WTO, NAFTA)?

47. Will international agricultural trade become more liberalized or closed?

48. Will food security become more or less or a priority to national governments?

49. Will most nations approach food security by growing more food domestically, or by establishing favored trading relationships?

50. Will the current system of agricultural subsidies in the US change significantly from today?

51. Will US government regulations around the health and safety of food become significantly stricter or more relaxed?

52. Will US government regulations around agricultural resource use, pollution, and pricing become significantly stricter or more relaxed?

53. Will US orientation towards biofuels remain focused on corn or shift to feed stocks derived from agricultural waste or nonfood crop plants?

54. Will immigration reform (or lack thereof) have a significant impact on the production and consumption of food in the US?

55. Will government problem solving (at local, state and federal levels) be more fragmented or more cohesive?

56. Will state and local governments gain or lose power relative to the US federal government on issues connected to food and agriculture?

57. Are there any additional issues that should have been included in this survey?

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul28-Collaborative-Intelligence
"Wednesday
July 28, 2010 
9:00 - 12:00 
Collaborative Intelligence 
Live Prediction Markets Simulation 
FSF 
B.583C 
Atrium 

Anders Hvid
Bill Bing
Brad Kohlenberg
Candice Berezan
Carlos Azevedo

Chiara Giovenzana
Claudia Olsson
David Wyler
Derek Jacoby
Dhaval Chadha
-
Dmitriy Tseliakhovich
Emma Brooke
Eric Ezechieli
Erika Anderson
Everson Lopes

Jorge Fernandez
Julian Ugarte
Mercy Njima
Michael Jensen
Miguel Oroz
-
Robertq Denning
Santiago Bilinkis
Sarahjane Pell
Sasah Grujicic
Sharon Niv

Steve Cronin
Tony Lyu
Yara Shaban

28 students

Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/LaBlogga \"prediction markets\"

Predictive Markets:
Hollywood Stocks
simExchange for video games
LongBets

People tend to underestimate when they don't know the answer

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul26-Anticipating-and-Influencing-the-Future
"Monday
July 26, 2010 
9:00 - 12:00
Anticipating and Influencing the Future 
FSF 
B.583C 
Atrium 

Peter Bishop
pbishop@uh.edu

Anders Hvid
Andrew Fursman
Candice Berezan
Carlos Azevedo
Claudia Olsson

Connor Dickie
Dhaval Chadha
Diva Tommei
Emem Andrew
Emma Brooke
-
Erez Livneh
Eric Ezechieli
Everson Lopes
Francesco Galietti
Gary Gautier

John Graves
Jorge Fernandez
Juan Lopez
Luca Escoffier
Michael Jensen
-
Nolene Naidu
Raycho Raychev
Santiago Bilinkis
Sarahjane Pell
Sasah Grujicic

Sharon Niv
Steve Cronin
Tigist Ashenaffi
Vincent Daranyi

29 students

9:08 
- Living in the Future: A User's Guide

Paul Saffo.

Peter Bishop / Univ of Houston
Univ of HI 

distance learning and practitioner oriented.
Many students execs already
teaching since 1982.
Thinking a lot about pedagogy
Offer futures thinking Houston-styel

Peter: 
9:09 [applause]
Tour of US Military
Woha.
Great to be at SU. You guys are real famous.
I started in 1982. Paul is a founder of the field.

To degrees
Regent U in Virgnia Beah.
Half a dozen to a dozen programs around the world
Australia
Stellenbache
Finland

Compared to what we study in the past - 100,000s of history.
Need to teach as much about the future as about the past.
Share with folks like you how we approach the future.
I can blow through it.
Most of the people we talk to are in the present.
Fires burning
This univ is devoted to some very long term futures.
Do some of the work you are involved in here.
All the time talking about future, talking about your projects.

Exercise:
Key in numbers.

Put in rank - relative to rest of class.
21 people here.
Smallest will be the closest.

First - how far you came.
No, first, alpha by first name.

JG: We have a system listing us by first name.

How far away.
[JG 21]

Second when you found out.
[JG 15]

Third, science backgrounds.
small numbers in hard science. High numbers in social science
[JG 6]

Who is closest?
Paul - nearby
David - 30 miles
connor: 6
sasha: 13 also from Toronto
Nolene: Jo-berg
JG: Auckland
Santiago: 19 - Argentina
Copenhagen.

Who found out just before deadline?
eric - applied AFTER the deadline.
Who first?
Dhuval: learned at last year's program.
Luca: Feb '09 - press release
Steve: 17 Last June.

Science: Who put 1?
Nolene: Astrophysics 1
Erez: 1 bioinformatics
Who is most social?
David A: philosophy
Lizzie: Literature
Andrew: \"I'm the real 21\" Econ/Phil/Poly Sci
Eric: Econ/bus/education/engineering/future Studies/socielogy/backcasting/environment - put 15

Peter: Phil with minor in math.
Point of all this - the process of knowing about the future
is exactly the process you used here.
To know things we cannot directly observe.
You have things you know,
but you had to make assumptions.
They are not bad, they are just necessary.
Exactly the same process as history -
lots of good data, but assume it is dated correctly, is the truth,
things found are actually used.

We also have data in future studies
trends
experiences
research
We don't discount that data. In order to use it, you have to make assumptions.
Assumptions are weaker than from other disciplines.
Science - never actually seen electron.
Use instruments which has assumptions built in.
We should not feel bad about assumptions.
Assume plans, goals and hopes will be realized.
Alternative is also plausible.
Not just what we think is going to happen, but what might happen instead.

World Business Network.
Leading scenario

Make assumptions, no way of getting out of that.
Not a solution.

With that intro, let me give you this:
Quote -
\"All of us .. could never happen\" - July 20, 2010
testimony about oil spill in gulf

- Surprises of the Decade
Failure of imagination?
Imagination is not respected as source of information.
Glad it is here. Not in most places - schools.
That is \"creative writing\"
Scientists use their imagination all the time.
We think of the scientific paper as being organized.
Reality is a mess. That other is window dressing.
The case of the brilliance of a company that suceeds - generally mass confusion.

What is surprise? When expectations don't match reality.
We are going to have another decade 2010-2010 with more things happening.
Modify our expectation to include more possiblities than most people contemplate.

Heard Peter [D's] talk. 
Before he was famous.
Always thinking about amazing things.

Erez: Continuously exposed to predictions. Hard to choose the right one.
All the things on this slide, someone said.

Problem of expectation. The trick is not to have to choose.
We leave them all on the table.
Monitor, watch.
Some are big surprises.
A lot have precursors.
If you don't believe it is possible, some things become more possible, less possible.
Can it happen? Maybe/maybe not.
Expectation is not so narrow.

Sasha: To what degree are there connections - 
Google -> iPhone

Do you think any of these had no precursors?

Andrew: non-Y2K

Biggest surprise of all.

Paul: I was saying in 1987 Y2K would not be an issue.

Was there an issue with that.
Forecast was - don't worry about the computer. Worry about the wacko down the street.
Two bugs
In the computer
In society
Peculiar responses - from failed forecasts.
Has cleared up

Peter: You know, better than I do, the run up to the tech growth was money going into
redesign of computer systems for Y2K.

Paul: Anything with no precursors?

Peter: Any uncaused effect?

Europeans arriving in New World.

Paul: Native Americans had some idea.
Peter: Was it observable? Could they have seen it coming?

Big Bang?
No precursor to that.

JG: Unintended consequences.

Certainly surprise us.

Steve: Art of this is connecting the dots.
Difficult to help see what no one else sees.

Only stick with those things that are probable. Not possible.
If you can change to include multiple possibilities, you are better off.

Santiago: Economy is unpredictable.

I would argue there are inherently unpredictable events.

1/ Chaos theory. Deterministic but unpredictable after the first few events.
Is market a chaotic system? Could well be.

Thinking about what were the precusors of collapse.
Santiago: But some people also said no collapse.

Before the fact our attitude should be \"everyone is potentially right\"
We have theory - as well as we can in physical science - predict what will happen
in the future. Someday ...

I don't believe that.

2/ Complex adaptive system. Can create novelty.
Something fundamentally new.
A logic system.

3/ Critical systems. A system on the verge of collapse.
Stock market way over valued.
Nuclear on verge of going critical.
avalance

Chao
Complexity
Criticality
Choice

We will never be able to predict exactly.

Andrew: Criticality.

Rene Thom? [
Bok = How nature works [ref]
Sand pile. Add sand one grain at a time. Natural angle. If you add grains slowly,
you will get at higher angle.
Super saturated solution - one more grain of salt - it precipitates.

Folds/ Manifolds
Most mathematicians don't believe.

1970's

Don't choose. Use whole new plausible alternative SET approach.

You now know future studies.

Other questions?
Erez: Describe psycho history - Asimov. Take large number of people.
Trilogy.

You can predict until people are in unstable state.
Can you say what day the housing market began to go down.

We have more predictability of mass movements.
Take Iran. 100,000s of people in the street.
Could have been regime put lid on it.
Tiananmen Square - repressed.
There are alternative scenarios.

Eric: How to put scenarios with guessing together with intentions - drivers that come
from individuals or groups.
Let's do something to create what we want.

That leads to first slide here.
- Sources of change
Expectations - create change ourselves.
Our future is always a combination of what the world will do and what we will do.
We are not masters of our own fate either.

Sphere of influence.
Mostly small.
Effecting lives of a billion - high aspirations of what you can do.
Still must take world into account -
physics, politics
Like a dance, a duet, always dancing with the world.
How it is going to react to us.
Steve: Black Swan.

That book is a restatement of very low probability, high impact events.
Things out there will happen.

We cannot eliminate surprise. Our expectations will be different, but we can mitigate it by
broadening our expectations.
Ensemble of scenarios.
Most of what will happen is part of that.
Black Swans may not be part of our expectations.

Down side - so many. We cannot prepare for all the potential futures.
that is an impossibility.
Handle more - be more ready.

Sasha: Predictions are just an exercise.
JG: Bela Nagy http://su-etherpad.com/Jul20-Bela-Nagy
Peter: Heard his presentation last September.

Sasha: Prepare for unexpected.
Peter: Getting it right is not the objective.
Being prepared is the objective.

Getting the thrust of the space station and the space shuttle right in order for them to dock, is critical.

Never forget the world.
Can we predict the world - no. 
Can we influence the world - yes.

- Inbound Change.
Transactional Environment
Space, bio,
People you hear are experts. Tremendous information.

The STEEP environment - 
Social
Tech
Econ
Env
Political

I add Cultural / Deographic to Social

- Outbound Change II

Most people don't have that opportunity as SU.
Your aspirations are beyond that.
Change the STEEP environment.

- Horizons of Change
Tactical
Operational
Strategic - your horizon

Most people are short term.

- Rates of Change
Continuous:
How fast.
Most of use are used to continuous.
Discontinuous:
It is the discountinuous we are not prepared for.
Don't include them in our expectations.

US industries.
Past Disruptions (In bound)

- Other disruptions
1970s Divorce rates went off the page.
Reconstructed climate
US Budget 1992-2009
S - Curve - picture of a disruptive event.

This is not your atmosphere, but where most people are.
1 - no problem
2 - what is going on
3 - whew!

Different chart than what Ray K has.(disagreement)
Even information technology - application will level off.
in 20-30 years we will have wired everything
Won't be much more to that.
Things could start something new.
Electronics -silicon based - have a limit.
Cosmic increase?

Sasha: His point is a series of S curves.
- Punctuated Equilibrium
My point as well
Whole curve - the envelop.

Sasha: So can't you then call anything a catalyst. Wiring cars becomes part of internet ... etc.

My understanding - episodic change.
Waves.
Lead technology - one before fibre was petroleum.
Coal -> electricity -> 

Jaw dropping productivity 
100 years ago, you could not drive.
Sending an e-mail - wow.
There is an aura? around a particular technology
you have to use it.
Quantum computing - unbelievable.
Biotech - wow, how can you use that.

Andrew: 50-60 years presently.
Agriculture rev lasted longer than 50 years.

My take - coal to steam ... episodes in agricultural revolution, I haven't studied.
Communication is unbelievably quick.

Need infrastructure. 
Social. Custom and culture. Until people get it in their heads.
Web 1.0 is very productive.
Unless ready to push stuff out into cloud - that change is even slower.
Social changes take longer.
Not as quick as technologists may think.

- Successive Eras.
Reason each era doesn't continue - you can't get much more out of that.
Inherent capacity for performance.

Old era / new era.
Transition is never easy.
Degradation of performance - undo things.
Values, practices, ideals - lots of those things have to go away.

Andrew: Is there a drop? or will the new era be beginning - performance does not happen at plateau, but earlier.

Yeah, I guess you could say.
Is there a case where there has been ....
There is a learning curve.
It takes awhile to get good.
A natural degradation.

Paul: Flat spot - we tend to pave the cow paths.
New technology used for old things.
Make transitor connectors look like vacuum tubes.

Andrew: Still vacuum tube enhancements after transistor.

Paul: Dotted lines.
Have given up looking for \"first thing\"

Peter: New thing.
JG: Bela Nagy - Devendra Sahal came up with approach \"first\"

Creative destruction.
Paul: Read Joseph Schumpeter :)
http://www.amazon.com/Creative-Destruction-Underperform-Market-Successfully/dp/0385501331

http://jvenugop.wordpress.com/2010/04/05/schumpeterian-creative-destruction-and-book-publishers/

Second Moore's law - cost of a fab.

Peter: Infrastructure, social resistance, political realities
Things have to go away in order to exploit new technology.

Eric: Not only interest. People in culture are last ones to see what is happening.

Talk about music industry. Steve Jobs figured it out. iTunes.

Eric: How to accelerate raise of consciousness.
Not fish who discovered the water.

Everett Rodgers - new pharma.
Diffusion of innovation
Half dozen characteristics - what makes it easier to adopt.

Paul: Innovation in biological world - is mutation. Only under stress.
If trying to do it at society level - create a crisis or start a religion.

JG: Michael Chen - going viral.

Under what conditions. How many people are thinking of new ideas that don't go viral.
How do you do it?
Sasha: Getting the ability to go viral.
The conditions.
So - increased rate of volatility - to what extent are we concentrating energy in the wrong place.
We as humans are a lot more predictable.
Do we focus too much on environment - not enough on individuals.
Say, shit is going to happen, how do we deal with it?

Peter: Strength, growth prosperity.
Whole other area of social, political - will influence, not change on a dime.
I'm a sociologist generally.
It's your judgement. Have to be looking at technology.
Westerners believe technology makes its own path.
We have expectations - nukes were going to be the energy source in 1960s.
But then ...

Emem: Can't stop an idea whose time has come?
How do we know when the time is?

Peter: That is an impossible question to answer.
Plausible futures. Not possible futures.
Broaden to include more ideas which do become valuable and important.
Don't make it too narrow - leave out things which will matter.

David A: Leadership formation. Capacity to respond.
Part of individual.

Leaders are those who create transformational change.
Leaders create the new era on purpose.
Create the destruction on purpose.

David A: See pattern.

Problem of leadership is overburdened.
Authority - congress, CEO, ... I'm an authority in a classroom. Does not make me a leader.
Management - organize people and resources within the existing era.
Leader goes beyond law of diminishing returns. Once on top of S curve - not much incremental performance.. Leaders say marginal improvements are not going to cut it.
Local maximums. Not highest mountain. To get to higher maximum must go through valley.
Leaders lead AWAY from local max. 
Promote a new era. Introduce technology, social idea, political movement. Need to move.
Leadership is important.
Leadership - narrower than just \"being in charge\"

Few people in authority are leaders in this sense.

Corruption in 3rd world countries - you expect ME to reform system? No way.

Very rare for an authority to be a leader.
Leaders start at the margin. The system is so strongly inertial.

Erez: Can you calculate the plausible distance between two maximums?

No. Is it something we can achieve, want to achieve, will be better?
Risk is creative destruction - and left with just destruction.
Problem with rapid succession of leaders, shake ups, if they don't stay
there long enough, then no progress.

A vision. Come with me. Great vision. Mostly about 

Erez: What suggest for leader?

Vision
Recognize costs
Commit to doing what it takes for as long as it takes.

10:21 Break.

[Talked about Steven Weber: Success of Open Source]

10:35
- The Purposes of Forecasting
\"Foresight\"
In the beginning, we told people not to put forecaster on their resume.
Futurist has become generally accepted.
What is not accepted yet is the name of the field.
Futurology (Europe)
No one likes -ism.
- Studies , sounds too academic.
Paul: Career comment. Future Studies, like lots of social scientist. Low barrier of entry.
Some serious anthropologists, some odd anthropologists.
Advanced math has a higher bar.

Peter: Applied futurists like Paul and I.
Not a particular technology we are trying to advance.
\"Preparing Foresight Professionals\"

Santiago: Once you have made a prediction ...
Paul: Way to a good forecast is a lot of shitty forecasts.
Demonstrate how your forecast is wrong.
In my work, I keep a pretty good.
After a couple beers, temptation to talk about being right. 
Were you wrong in an interesting way.
Don't shrink from bad forecasts.
Keep a journal. Try for a week or two, look back at what your forecasts were.
Gets you over this hangup of being right.

Some said, 97% accurate.
Sends wrong message.
Telling people what is going to happen.

Andrew: Predictions for end of week?

Paul: Some short, some long.
I sit on the board of Long Now foundation.
Bets.
Two famous folks made bet about Celtics and US Soccer team.
Bet about US expansion.

Write down what comes to mind.

Peter: 
Don't tell people what is going to happen.
Provide scenarios.
It is the assumptions that we make -
One reason we make forecasts if for people to say \"You are making an assumption.\"
In some cultures, this is a critcism.
When someone does that, we look on it as doing a favor.
Only other way you find out.

Andrew: Other thing about your fly being down - there is a time and place for it.

Peter: What could happen, what is the cause of ti.

- Knowing Different times
I went through clips from SU from EP on YouTube
John Maldin - new era of economics with less debt.
\"History is totally irrelevant.\"
No, it is the only data we have.
Use with assumptions,
Assumptions have alternatives
Deal in multiple scenarios.

- Framework forecasting
How to use information to come up with the forecasts you want to use.
You have on the table the start.
Ross will post slides.
Talk with people who are also in your domain.

JG: PES

Forecasting uses continuity of current era.
But if you introduce disruption - won't speculate about what model will be.
Not a bad assumption - been around a long time.
Problem is not challenging the assumptions.

Andrew: 1000 things that could bring some disruption about - each with 1/1000th chance.
Is there a way to bring to light the 

Current era may continue longer.
Future of education - ripe for critical disruption.
How people learn. So industrial. So well protected, insulated.
Has existed a lot longer than it should.
Haven't seen a real disruption yet.
Give it a preeminent place - the \"expected\" future.
What will happen if nothing unexpected happens.

If all of most probable assumptions happen.
Single point forecasts - take that as the \"expected\" not the full range.
Almost ever talk is on the expected future.

Andrew: Most likely scenario is one of the many unlikely things happening.

In terms of absolute probability, there is no sure thing.
The most probable future isn't - Herman Kahn. [ref]

Most probable - what everyone is familiar with.
Elaborate.
Steve: To what extent is this an effective technique.
Housing bubble
Is it reasonable to say, when going exponential, that it will flatten/ collapse?

Yes, that is the way I think.
The beginning is exponential - 
indefinite exp
level off in S
third is overshoot and collapse

I don't think there are indefinite exponentials.

Question of level off of S curve - what is sustainable?
If it approaches limit - you get \"soft landing\"
Most systems completely blow through the limits.
Housing - 
leverage
You don't return to a smooth, sustainable system. You get collapse.

Image is that of pendulum.
Maximum kinetic energy of a pendulum is where it should stop.
Overshoot and collapse came out of Limits to Growth.
We have introduced idea of limits to growth. Have not introduced overshoot and collapse.
Positive increase is so good, you don't appreciate the downside.

A high performance - if exp past sustainability.

Steve: How to assess?

Book: 2 economists. \"This time is different\"
http://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691142165/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1280166984&sr=1-1

Paul: It is a wonderful economic perspective in the ways people blind themselves.
Began with Population delusions, Charles Mackay and the madness of crowds.
Preface to 3rd edition.
Men go mad in crowds, only come to their senses slowly and one by one.
http://www.amazon.com/Extraordinary-Popular-Delusions-Madness-Crowds/dp/1604594411

Peter: How do you tell what is sustainable?
Growth has gone exp.
Is there more here?
I don't think you know.
Lead technologies create forces that are unbelievable in terms of what came before.
Information, wireless, gives us all that all over again.
But securitized mortgages were. So how do you tell?

Paul: Bubbles are not a bug, they are a feature.
Things people projected did come - but late.
Standard pattern.
Write up of English railroad. 1850s. Guy who led it had to flee for his life.
But 10 years after bubble.

Steve: Fiber laid.

Paul: Dark fiber- exactly what happens with every other infrastructure project.
People lose money. Next came and make money.

Eric: Quite comfortable with what has been said until now.
What is your perspective on biotech and nanotech.
From my perspective, this really is different?

Peter: There are lead technologies that lead to significant changes to productivity
Coal
Electricity
...
Securitized mortgages didn't contribute to productivity.
Idea was - spread risk.

Are there technologies that bubble, then go away? Nuclear?
There are some which do not create permanent changes in productivity.

Paul: Other piece - look for deep constants. There are deep, slowly changing things.
Do more and more with less and less. Think of matter required to compute.
Babbage to relays to ...
Bio and nano are just next step.
Does it go with the grain of that change.

Second, what are the beginnings of the S Curve like.
Problem with nano is a definitional problem - do you want precise control?
AI - qualification - can never go wrong in estimating how long it will take AI guys to deliver.
AI guy meets the beautiful blonde. Invites her to his room - he spends the whole night telling her how great it is going to be.

Peter: Growth better than non-growth. Capitalist system.
This is an assumption. Is civilizational bubble going on?
Have we overdone something - that is the Limits to Growth message.

Erez: How to reduce to practice. When we find solution to autoimmune or space elevator.

If you want to know a date, or outcome of an event. Expected future. 
Maybe Nagy - extrapolation, run to future time.
Ray has those future curves. What he is doing.

Other is judgemental - Delphi instrument.
Not only estimation, but re-estimation.
Objective data. Statistical data + people's judgement.
U of G
Techcast.org
Bill Halal. [ref]

Ted Gordon in 1960s did judgemental 
Developed Delphi technique
Future innovations - out 40/50 years.
How much up to this point? about 80% of what they said had occured.
Space station by 1980.
Had us on Mars today.
Everybody in that set expected Apollo to go exponential.
Good so long as there is not an erroneous assumption, that something is not going to come along to change the curve.

Steve: How do you objectively know if a group has that common assumption?

You don't.
Enable challenge of assumptions.
No guarantee you don't have group think.

Paul: Whole art is picking the group. Have expert interviews.
What is missing here. Do I have enough heretics.
At the end of the day, get you to a place where you can trust your own intuition.
Group forecast will get me to a point where I can get client to a point of trusting own intution.

Peter: What are scenarios.

Paul: Most valuable informants are the ones consistently wrong. Cherish them. Ask them lots of questions.

- Framework Forecasting.
Just the preliminary work.
This little worksheet is a set of categories.
Stuff you find out there does not come with labels 
Baseline
Alternative
You will get different types of information.
Still a synthetic judgement.
Not a bright line ...

JG : Google trends? Statistical approach.

Used to call it data mining. Text analytics. 
Every single piece. No future fact - 

No future facts.
Hal Varian - chief economist at Google.
Real time forecasting the present.
Really, really rich

Peter: Even finding out what is going on in the present is not easy.

Google just established a trading desk.
Hiring if anyone wants to work in Mountain View.

JG: I'd like to make that application today.
http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/google-launches-trading-floor-to-manage-265-billion-in-cash-reserves

What would be an example of a new era, disruptive event?
Historic.

Sasha: Internet.

Huge one.
Now go from what , to what?

Sasha: Finite channels to borderline infinte.

Now, what are implications.

Sasha: Depends on perspective. For marketers - massively diverse choice.
Almost to paralysis.

Change what you will buy - Google ad words, versus broadcast TV.

That is a disruptive event - been around for awhile. 10 years?

Sasha: 5 years in terms of moving money.

Understanding system.
Implications having implications having implications.
More surprising things we haven't snapped to?
What haven't people noticed yet?

Sasha: Changed way we buy.

Research.
In describing the current era, what is the transition going on now.

Erez: Human genome.

Concludes in 2000. What is from/to?

Erez: Single gene to whole genome.

That's the name.
What's the impact.

Erez: 1000s at once.
Invented bioinformatics.

That's the foundation.

Erez: Went other places.

I really like to understand the future of ideas - concepts.
We all got media from fixed sources. Now a vast variety.

What are other conceptual ideas? The \"something else\" social?

JG: Longevity. HIV/Cancer cures. This will change behavior.

In terms of technique, method. Have this conversation.
First thing to change is the technology.
The more interesting stuff is how economics, politics, environmental.
What will future historians claim was the impact.

Be sure we know where we are today.
Who the stakeholders are.
Identify the interests.
What do scientists, polticians want to get out of this system.

This is the warmup stuff.
Get our arms around quantities, stakeholders.

Then put into motion. Try to create the expected future.
Daniel Kraft, Nov 2009, 1:00-2:15

- Forces of Change: Baseline Future
-Mechanisms of Change
Momentum - 
Constants
cycles - hard to identify
Trends
Plans
Projections
Expected future
Highly dependent on time horizon.
We put it in terms of years. Not really that precise.
Having a set of constants.

In your domain, can you think of a constant?

JG: Speed of light.

That's a good one.

Eric: Human stupidity. For me, it's a real constant.

Human motivation. Laws of physics. Biological evolution happens slowly.
Tons of those.
Not hard.
Some people use trends - you should be able to say \"more or less\" of something.

Plans. Influential stakeholders. What is the government, R&D labs planning to do.
For this, assume plans will be successful.

Projections - forecasts made by others.
A lot of what you are getting here.

Describing - challenging, exciting, pretty well understood future. BUT
we know that, but have we considered the categories.
Remember STEEP.
Who would have thought that pharma would have put trace elements of Estrogen into water supplies.
A lot in the power point, not showing.
The futures wheel. 
A mind map.
Put change in center. If those happen, what is going to happen.
Trace the ripples of the pond.
Not just wowwie-zowwie. There will be some conflicting things.
A few surprising things. That is an implication, wow.
Not just the baseline, but what the society will be.
any questions?

OK. 
Examples (see links on slide)

- Assumptions in Trend Extrapolation

Which data are you going to include?
What if there are other models, an oscillating system?
Or discontinuity?
A simple trend extrapolation gives you different choices.

I set up a false problem. Discontinuity comes around an event.
Fundamentally, that information doesn't tell you without doubt whether system oscillates.

Erez: System?

Yes, Excel. SAS.

Sasha: Econometrics.
Correlation based.
Bayesian networks. May bring Jeff Hawkins in.

Peter: Look at data, recommend which model.
JG: SAS has a package to do that.

Andrew: Based on novelty - would Bayesian be unlikely source?

Peter: I don't have fundamental understanding well enough.
Start with probabilities,
... very simplistic.
Lot of people say this is the way. Your prior probabilities are your assumption.

Sasha: Media/marketing - moving from hypothesis/test going to responses in real time.

That comes down to influencing the future.
Major way was plan/act
versus sense/respond - real time adjustments.
Not just more data flow. Faster reaction.
I suspect text analytics -way way more common.

- The Cone of Plausibility

The Future is may, not one.
Limit of Plausibility.
Most probable is the end of that baseline. But not likely.

- Scenario Development.
Art of the Long View. Easy read.

- Benefits of stories [skipped]
- The \"Trick\" of scenarios.

What I call the 50/50. Usually not asked to go there.
- Beyond Best Case / Worst Case
Showed this to actuaries.
Low probability is in the center. \"Herein lie dragons\" in the center.

- Words and Probabilities. [table]

- Another Type of Futures Thinking.
Brad Templeton talk - offhand about privacy - an emerging issue.
With alternative futures - there are precursors.
If this scenario were to occur. Let's monitor a few things. See if these scenarios are becoming more common.

- Mechanisms of Change II.
Disruption.
Trend reversal.
Unfulfilled plans
Potential events
Unresolved issues
Novel ideas
Alternative

GBN tomorrow.
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul27-Global-Business-Networks
This is a setup, information that leads to alternatives.

GBN technique is the most common - almost taken over definition of category.
Reduces to 2 dimensions.

Paul: Look at Peter Schwartz's book.
At SU, showing new stuff.

Ross: 
5/10 year projections.
Look at plans.
More than happy to go over with your group.

Peter: here this afternoon. We can talk.
Lot like the STEEP categories.
An insurance policy that we don't forget something important.
Put information you get into categories.
Tends to organize information space.
So you don't forget assumptions.
What are some events that occur - not all negative. Can have positive events.

Rest of power point on baseline, then choice - having to do with leadership.
Create vision.

We've all been subjected to that.
Not always happily.
I'm going to stop talking.

11:49
Steve: Bubbles can be good thing.
CDO / housing - how was that beneficial.

Paul: I was talking bubbles in technology.
Financial world, ... no.

Peter: Securitization of risk. Not a bad thing. Just so overdone, it created systematic risk.
OK, just so it was not wild west.

They understood Value at Risk - amazingly sophisticated. All assumed liquidity.
It had never gone down - in the history of the US.

Paul: three lines
Bubbles are part of innovation process.
People need to be kidded into investing.

Vincent: Very interesting. Would have loved a concrete example. Still abstract.

Paul: We asked Peter to do this as context. Very specific tomorrow. Then Melanie Swan's specific lecture.

Peter: Not much research, more teaching. Dept of - Texas. Can share baseline. 7-8 scenarios.
So you can see elements and scenarios.

Sasha: Related back to stupid people ...
Looking at tech trends, liklihood of adoption.
To what degree in your history have you seen the best of nature of humans in a system playing whether it happens or not.
Very vested education system.
Probably based on reality.
Media - vested in some ways, not livelihood. 
Fundamental piece.

Contribution, mistake education makes is that there are always right answers.
We are saying either no answer or multiple answers.
Try to solve here or there, system gets messed up.
We are teaching answers, does not engender alternative, simultaneously available options.
Rarely is the organization capable of saying, \"I don't know the answer\"
We don't have that habit of thought.

Paul: Cultures having stake. Can they break out of it.
Great perspective.
Anthropological futures.
Most people don't change - they just get old and die.
Or people get impatient.

Peter: Culture does collect the wisdom of the past.
Without it.
Friction to engineers.
Without it, you don't pick up that piece of paper.
If you can't sell the change, that may have been the best change of all.
\"You're just being resistant.\" Maybe that is good.
Some good old ideas ought not be thrown away.

Paul: Oh yes. I hate change.
Something very strange is happening with culture now. Intersection of globalization and local culture.
We are way overdue for a major new religion.
I just have a feeling that is in our near future.

Erez: Scientology?

Islam
So depressing to think of Scientology.

Peter: Not probable. But really interesting to talk about.
Paul: Not a wildcard. Something happening.
Peter: Plausible alternative future.

Eric: Features?
ross: Shape of the next religion. Muder, Doug.
Paul: Good thing Thursday.
11:59 [applause]
Paul: Additional workshop
Gerry Glen.
Millenium project. State of the Future report. Press conference.
Chance to get - ink is still wet.
Monday 9-11. Official. You can sign up for it.
In the meantime,
GBN. Latest scenarios.
Then Melanie Swan.
One of the highest rated workshops last summer.

On Thursday, I'm going to be here for informal conversation.
9 - 11. Will extend to 12 if people want to keep going.
Future methods. I'll be here this room.
Jose is dressed as the love doctor.

Jose: For yoga today.
In marathon yesterday.

Black Swan:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory0

Tweets from steve:

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#singularityu - Peter Bishop - Imagination is not accepted as a source of information!!! Case in point: BP Oil Spill

Modis Predictions
http://www.amazon.com/Predictions-Years-Later-Theodore-Modis/dp/2970021617

Instant Feedback week 6:
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"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul26-Build-Your-Own-Biotech
"Monday
July 26, 2010 
9:00 - 12:00
Build Your Own Biotech 
BB 
B.20 
Viente Room

Students:
Ankur Jain
Bill Bing
Bryce Goodman
Chiara Giovenzana
David Hutchison

James Jacoby
Jan Jungclaus
Julielynn Wong
Kausar Samli
Matthew Kern
-
Mercy Njima
Michael Chen
Rand Hindi
Robert Denning
Sam Thorp

Tony Lyu

16 students

Build Your Own BiotechiGEM - international genetic enegineering machines - off the shelf parts and modular components to build something useful

biggest problem now is figuring out what you want to build

just with your computer, you have equal or more power than drug companies who do this now. their tools were developed 20 years ago and they are relatively crude

Agrobacterium - moving genes into plants

fail fast, fail often

http://www.geobacter.org/

synthetic meat - https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.new-harvest.org/img/files/datar_and_betti.pdf

you cannot be a renaissance person now-a-days! go out and dance more, you just need to find the right group of people. need to be able to network well.

IP property models: you need to do this well because you need to be funded well. since most of this is upselling, you need to show how and to whom they are going to sell this

markets: who's going to buy this?

literally right now, presidential-level biotech talks

training and education, no one knows what they are doing! there is no model for doing this right

sewage rights - usually have most of organics stripped off by growing biological material... actually one of the most rich materials...

use a biological system whenever you can because it's self-replicating

in manufacturing in general, move away from chemical processes (historically easy to manipulate) to biochemical manufacturing. works at standard temperature and pressure, can create specific molecules (sometimes including chirality)

carbon, it is a big deal because of climate change. there is an economy forming... $300M voluntary carbon trading.... what if BP was taxed for its associated carbon content??
offset your flight by swiping your credit card

carbon neutral, biofuels
carbon negative, capture carbon for a hundred years, you have a powerful business

consulting for DIY bio seems like a viable market for a start-up

if SU doesn't take root, then we are in trouble!!!

halcyon, high-throughput DNA sequencing so that we can live longer

bring biotech to non-biotech people!

biosensing, biodefense are very necessary for future

craig venture, take my 90-ft sail boat, go around the world, take samples every 200mi, filter, collect organisms, dry and send back to lab for sequencing.

academic money is non-dilutive

send a blank seed and a DNA-synthesizer to mars instead of sending a tree, or a seed even

cells are hardware, DNA is software

consulting and design, focus energy on one idea. work for free, once you have one contract you can hire staff etc..

do something the big companies aren't going to do (or that they're not going to do now so that you can sell it to them)

create a metabolic pathway for creating opiates that doesn't require poppy plant....

only way to make disruptive change, open source

social networking for funding

must say really provacative things to get published

invest $20 into a couple different biotechs

http://collabrx.com/ - individualized cancer treatment - first 100 are most difficult, then after than 100,000 is easier. only need sample of your cancer cell and a rapidly customizeable biological base. targeted RNA or a virus... need people to invest not VC's... $2M for one person, no ROI

pinkarmy.org - individualized cancer treatments which you can invest in

share share share share share share share share share!!!

entire THC metabolic pathway is available online

current enforcement techniques for meth labs don't work - it moves to mexico, organized crime, bigger, darker and more sophisticated...

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul29-More-Human-than-Human
"Thursday
7/29/2010
9:00-12:00
More Human than Human 
BB 
B.583C 
Water TP Room

Alison Lewis
Bill Bing
Bryce Goodman
Chiara Giovenzana
David Dalrymple

Emma Brooke
Derek Jacoby
Julielynn Wong
Marko Bitenc
Matthew Kern
-
Michael Chen
Rand Hindi
Raycho Raychev
Robertq Denning
Sarahjane Pell

Yara Shaban

16 students

Need to watch Blade Runner ahead of session

Films of biological future often dark 

How do we understand society's fears?

How do we create a more positive vision?

Themes of Blade Runner still relevant today:
-Genetic engineering
-Set in LA 2019
-Animals all eradicated
-Space travel to colonies
-Not easy life
-Robotics have advanced rapidly
-Aging diseases (Methusalah - accelerating decrepitude, J.F. Sebastian)
-Environmental destruction
-Police state
-People primarily living in dense, crowded cities
-Economically depressed
-A.I. (replicants have human-level intelligence, had to implant memories for Nexus 6, destabilized over time, built in 4 year lifespan)
-Elden Turrel neurobiologist (28), made brain, CEO Turrel Corporation, lives in massive pyramidal building, relationship with JF Sebastian (back story never explored)
-J.F. Sebastian, genetic engineer, made toy cyborgs, lives in Bradbury Building, inspired Hessel to become genetic engineer
-Love, empathy

Key date in genetics; June 26th, 2000, public and private (Craig Ventner's group kicked butt) organizations doing genome sequencing forced to make public announcement (declare a truce)

Backstory as synopsis
One weekend writing exercise -> flesh out chapters

Alison: talked about her ongoing novel synopsis

Science Fiction: foresighting, business plans in advance, sets expectations for future

Comic books: storyboarding

Bryce: media has had negative influence on policy due to apocalyptic vision

Exploration of two main central characters of Tureel and JF -> diverged, struggling vs. king of hill, maps to public and private efforts of genome project

Biology will be one of the main battlefronts economically forward
Who owns DNA?
What is value of your life?
FDA questioning genomic profiling direct to consumer; bridge gulf with between mature hierarchechal suits and casual, enthused, immature DIY communities, FBI proactive about outreach for DIY

DIY have all tools of major lab but still don't know how to use them

Synoposis from today movie
Maps out what the hell happened

Watched Blade Runner (1982 version)

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul22-The-Internet-of-Things
"'7/22/2010 
Thursday 
The Internet of Things - Spime Design Workshop
David Orban
Slides: http://bit.ly/9ImjNS

Aaron Kemmer
Alaeddine Mokri
Alexandru Celac
Alison Lewis
Anders Hvid

Ankur Jain
Canidce Berezan
Carlos Azevedo
Chiara Turelli
Dhaval Chadha
-
Dmitry Tseliakhovich
Elizabeth Brook
Emiliano Kargieman
Erez Livneh
Eric Ezechieli

Erika Anderson
Eugenia Rives
Fabio Teixeira
Gary Gautier
Jorge Fernandez
-
Juan Martinez
Julian Ugarte
JulieLynn Wong
Kausar Samli
Luca Escoffier

Marko Bitenc
Michael Chen
Robert Denning
Ronen Amit
Santiago Bilinkis
-
Sasha Grujicic
Sharon Niv
Steve Cronin
Tigist Ashenaffi
Tyler Kratz

Valentina Margaria
Yara Shaban
Zain Jaffer

38 students

\x3cnotes>

Evolution of Paradigms
Emerging Properties
Examples from today
What Not(unless you want to)->
Technical standards
Communication methods
Energy source Conundrums
Passive identification

Spime Introduction
What ->
The open internet of things is a network of networks :)
Designed and built for humans
This way of designing of computers cannot hold anymore and go to a new type of internet, that is not only operated by humans but also by things. It must be open right from the start. 
Industry Standards = I control it (say the corporations)

We know that it is not enough to start and study social networks and viral marketing or stuff that is already there and deployed, it means we are observing the past and projecting it out into the future. 

Evolving devices. 
The last generation of computational devices that built on the old designs are mobile phones.
The next generation is called \"SPIME\" 
SPIME = SPace + tIME
Science fiction books are a great resource and inspiration and a design pattern that we can pick up to implement.

(side note: HP started silicon valley, its a power house here. Science fiction books are a great resource)

A Granular World
IP is internet protocol invented by Vinton G. Cerf, (coming to SU)
*** Check out Internet for Peace Proposal. 
http://www.internetforpeace.org/manifesto.cfm

We have so many IP addresses at home that we ran out of IP addresses. IPv4 can only do about 1Billion Devices
Original Internet is a peer network, what we have now is the opportunity to go back to those rules. 
P2P is not a crime, do not criminialize a basic technology.
reference document: http://www.fourmilab.ch/ 

All computers are IPv6 ready, it just a question now of turning it on. 
You might want the address to be permanent 
Privacy Issues
Replacement Issues
Understanding means being able to give names and call out those names
That is what IP is about (making the world addressable and understandable)

What will change in the future is our desire to take care of our devices. What happens is that all the gadgets are depending on me and designed with me at the center. Even something as something as elementary as charging is such a burden. As the number of devices starts to radically exceed the number of humans on the planet. 
(Intel Road Map for what they call the Claytronic Network)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claytronics

Computing, memory, communication, location, and sensing are the features put in any device then it is a SPIME device. 
This is not 100% true, so if it has interspective values, like a depleating charge. 
Example: Roomba knows when its charge is depleating and recharges itself and goes back to cleaning. 

Network Evolution: 
When the web was invented it was detached from physical reality. It was about access the data from wherever and make them accessible. 

\u201cThe formula for success? Double your rate of failure.\u201d Thomas J. Watson, IBM
\u201cThe Internet multiplied a thousandfold our failure rate, without increasing the cost of our success\u201d Cory Docotrow

Network Evolution
Generation Isotropy Access
Web Data Knowledge
Web 2.0 Applications Social
Spimes Sensors World

QUESTION: 
Andrew Chalkin. There is a lot of information. How does this get translated when the information is like a firehose? 
ANSWER: Getting to that

Redundancy of Spines
We all know how important it is to make good decisions about climate change\u2026we might want to look scientifically and not dogmatically\u2026if it is happening, we want to know why? We then want to change our behavior, ext\u2026..
So NASA said instead of looking at economic data for the Kyoto\u2026the way they measure CO2 emissions by nations is surveys of industrial outputs\u2026\u2026so they created the OCO (Orbiting Carbon Observatory \u2013 Jet Propulsion Laboratory \u2013 California Institute of Technology)
July 19, 2009, observatory was launched and blew up

We need to rely on a nework that doesn't have a single point of failure. 
We have too much information, the planet and our artificial networks are talking to us
What will happen is that we want to listen and learn from them, they will listen to each other and learn from each other.

Changing Dialog
Generation Bandwidth M2M Index
Industrial apps Kb/s 1%
Realtime Web Mb/s 10%
Spime Networks GB/s 99%+

In terms of percenatge of actions carried out by humans, these actions will be very small compared to 
Example of machine dialog is going on are the little tics we hear when a speaker and mobile phone are near each other. Its going on all around us already!

Question: Bryce. What determines the frequency of the sounds of things?
Answer: The bit rate. The cell phone is trying to see if the line is clear... and finding a reliable speed. 

DATA Deluge:
Most of our perceptional system is based on discarding instead of including. 
Photo: LHC http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_Hadron_Collider outside of CERN

?_____?

Question: Can I go back and get to the data that was thrown away (Chiara)
Answer: , the information is put aside and now you have twice as many emails to read. No, you will never go back and read that email, but from time to time you will run a search. So its searchable and you apply filters. The problem is the amount of data built by machine is so large we don't have enough storage systems to keep it even if its only a few days. 

This will happen with sensor networks as well. 

Important: The network has to be stupid. You don't want to build intelligence into the system. 
What is going to happen is that the Spine networks are going to generate enourmous amount of data. W/In ten years they are going to generate more than 1.5 Exobites a day. 

Google only touches the survice of the web. 

Imagine that you have an email inbox that receives a constant amount of email every day, this is more than can be read \u2013 so you say, \u201cwell there could be something that I want to read here but I can\u2019t now, so I\u2019ll put it aside\u201d\u2026.this continues day after day, so \u2013 you will never go back and ready the email. What you do from time to time is run a search (apply filters) problem though is the amount of data generated by the machine are so large there is not a system that can keep the data even for a few days, so it is gone. This is what is going to happen to the sensor networks as well. One principle at the origin of everything is that the network ahs to be stupid (the internet is stupid) \u2013 it finds a route, the route breaks (it doesn\u2019t ask questions\u2026it doesn\u2019t care) it just continues on to find another route. What is going to happen, is the SPIME networks are going to generate an enormous amount of data, w/I 10 yrs, if we are building SPIME networks, they will generate more than 1.5 EB/day!

Data Deluge
Year Network Data
Now Deep Web ~1.5 EB
2020 Spime Network >1.5 EB/day

The answer is intelligence of the NODE \u2013 the decision making power of the node itself, that can not only take data but UNDERSTAND what must be done with it.

Not Blind Anymore
Object # sensors
Mobile Phones 10
Car 50-100

AWARENESS: 
Example is the Volvo __ tells you how close you are to the cars around you and let you know you need to be breaking. THE NEW PIECE, if you don't break, it will break for you. 

This is new because, technology people love to find solutions without concerning themselves about the consequences. 
If we are not alert, society could reject some of the solutions even if its an excellent solution, so the consequences are extremely important. 

What is the consequence of the machine breaking your car for you? 
- your frightened by the breaking and grab the steering wheel and turn
- if you hit the other car, who is liable? is it you or the car maker? 
- the insurance company? who is going to buy the insurance for the AI because it makes bad decisions? 

WHO
Slide with Bruce Sterling's picture \"Forget trying to pass for normal\" 
IPSO allanance(http://www.ipso-alliance.org/Pages/Front.php)
See slides for multiple examples of internet examples

10-year plan by Justin Rattner to create a claytron netowrk. 
What this means you can program the shape of things, not like 3D printers or carving and not as smart as nano-machines (in 20 years). What you can do is tell a piece of dust what shape and color to have, dymanically. Truly astounding. 

the Anthropocene:
- 10000 bc total composition of terrestrial biomass in the wild was 98%
- now: is 2%

what do we do now? ( the colisium image)

It is up to us to adapt, in the meantime we cannot loose this planet. 

Hiding Information:
The arctic scientific data images were considered secrete, this kind of hiding of information is recreational scuicide 

Device examples that help the world/environment:
Wide Noise
Social Meter
Spime Design Workshop

Spime is built to be highly scalable and is targeting over 1M data events in one moment. 

FUTURE:
Examples, Robotic cars are going to create a network. 

4G Communication
relative value of cattle is so high that knowing what it is doing is precious information

Energy
Smart grids, Cisco, turning grid into smart netowrk

Quantified Self: 
Health, everything is pointing to the fact that we have to be responsible for our own bodies and how we function. Measurements and alterts of what is going on is going to be a fundamental responsibility of each individual. 

Bre Pettis \"Things are changing faster than we can die\" 

The internet of things is already hapening
Our mobile networks are sensors

If we are right about this strange place we are in now in space and time, when we recognize that we are going through a single planetary co-evolution\u2026we will have the opportunity to be human again, for 10,000 years we have been living for a time that the sticks we invented brought us to a lower quality of life than what was enjoyed by the hunters and gatherers before, they didn\u2019t live as long, but when agriculture was invented, we suffered a lot\u2026.but now we are suffering (slaves to our machines) that is why we have to set them free in order for us to become free\u2026\u2026.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul22-Introduction-to-CAD-Design
"7/22/2010 
Thursday 
Introduction to CAD Design

Diva Tommei
Emem Andrew
Hind Ahmed
Sarah Jane Pell

4 students

\x3cnotes>

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul29-Forecasting-the-Future-of-Futures
"Thursday
July 29, 2010 
9:00 - 12:00 
Forecasting the Future of Futures, Research & Methods 
FSF 
B.583C 
Atrium 

Aaron Kemmer
Alaeddine Mokri
Alexandru Celac
Anders Hvid
Brad Kohlenberg

Candice Berezan
Carlos Azevedo
Chiara Turelli
Connor Dickie
David Wyler
-
Dhaval Chadha
Dmitriy Tseliakhovich
Emem Andrew
Emiliano Kargieman
Erez Livneh

Erika Anderson
Francesco Galietti
Gary Gautier
Hind Ahmed
John Graves
-
Juan Martinez-Barea
Kausar Samli
Mercy Njima
Sasah Grujicic
Sharon Niv

Tyler Kratz
Valentina Margaria

27 students

The Future of Future's Methods

Hopefully it's better than the past

Vannivar Bush - responsible for the creation of modern day research and development
Many of the ideas in future's methods came from this kind of R&D
Monet Carlo method, key to hydrogen bomb development
OR operational research

After winning the war, it was a miracle and we felt science could do anything.
Writes \"As we may think\" and does some amazing prediction

UNNIVAC arrives on the scene and in 1952 first computer used to predict election, pic of Walter Conkrite in front of univac as it's predicting

Before this, prediction was very hand waivey and imagined, Jules Verne, Psychics, etc.

Herman Kahn from Rand corporation, then went to (started?) the Hudson Institute
father of modern day futures and forecasting

RAND started as a Douglas Project, Research ANd Development (RAND)
Asked bold questions about the world after the bombs go off

Most future tools today are awful, it's about asking the right questions
Flying think tank, flying from capital to capital in Africa, giving advice

RAND bomb damage effect computer (more like circular slide rule)

Herman Kahn was the basis of the Peter Seller's character Dr. Strangelove

RAND plays war game simulations that go right into US policy
Using data from nuclear testing for predicting damage dealt to each side

THe first wave of futurists (cold war wave of forecasting) was the Vannivar Bush era

1965 Futures work started to become quantitative, due to confidence
Theodore J Gordon

\"Speech weak here, use latin and shout\" -Winston Churchill speech margin notes

The Delphi Oracle - lasted for centuries, lots of gifts ... it worked
Mandatory reading for futures, got the level pf specifics and vagueness perfectly

Al Toffler [spell?] was the Herman Kahn of the next wave of futurists
As a futurists you should look for ideas everywhere, intellectual rag picker

Today is the 40th Anniversary of Furture Shock by Alvin Toffler, July 29, 1970
This went platinum and is still in print today
He was very serious and this book launched the modern field
Many futures think tanks got started in the 1970s (SRI, etc.)

Office of Technology Assessment 1972-1995, was defunded by Newt because the information was not favorable
(Something about ballistic missle defense)
\"Wisdom is a sorrow, when wisdom profits not\"
Be careful how you deliver the message, it can kill you and your organization

If it is bad news, make sure it's right!

1970s
Shell Gas did some great futurist work in the oil crisis, reinvented scenario planning

1980
Moore came along and introduced exponentials via Moore's law
Becomes more mainstream and opens the door for pop futurists
Megatrends - had a huge social impact
Max Hedroom - favorite futurist, predicted 15 minutes into the future
By late 80's people grew tired of pop futurists

1991 The Art of the Long View by Peter Schwartz- best top down appoarch for future scenarios

S Curves - people in silicon valley think things will never end, but everything always ends

1999 - The Long Boom, argued we were in for infinite growth in a time when it was very pessimistic, hasn't turned out to be true ... yet

Pattern of world changing, old tools not working and new tools having to be devloped

Rand Corp has been a great source of forecasting methods with quantitative basis
Pardee Centor for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition - good place to look for tools, but it can take time [?]

911 happened, the real world jumped ahead of our prediction tools
We are running around with antique forcasting tools

When Prophecy Fails - relevant book, post Y2K, religions, etc.

Delphi (Rand 1953)
Scenarios (Rand 1950s)
Cross-Impact Analysis (Gordon & Helmer 1966)
Backcasting
Simulation & Modeling

Robotic cars are a strange thought until you think about how horrible and strange it is to put humans in charge of cars:
Take the familiar and make it seem strange
Take the strange and make it seem familiar

Cross-Impact: think about waves all over the ocean where multiple waves can create a big rogue wave or cancel each other out

Backcasting: Pretend the future has happened and tell the story of how we got here backwards 

Futures Research Methodolgy by the Millenium Project edited by Theodore J. Gordon and Jerome C. Glenn
did a great job outlining mulitple futures methods, don't get attached to any one method, just pull out different tools as needed

Google: Hal Varian http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Hal_Varian_on_how_the_Web_challenges_managers_2286 
*our algorithms keep getting better (we are poised on the cusp of a huge societal change)\u2026\u2026we have more powerful machines, powerful algorithms, and we have a DATA source (people) AND we have sensors pouring data\u2026.this is a perfect convergence of algorithmic tools, data. He\u2019s making a bet that they can come up with new economic analytics \u2013 thinks that is where we are at.

The futures community hasn\u2019t delivered the forecasting tools \u2013 the prediction market is good for short term things, but it is not good at long term (more an indicator of the zeitgeist and less an indicator of where things will go\u2026\u2026.

Now we are at the present: Haven't had much advancement in futures methods in the last 10 years
Melanie Swan talked about using markets for collaborative intelligence forcasting
Computers and Internet has allowed this to happen

We have people pouring data into computers all the time with twitter, facebook, etc.and at the same time we have automated sensors pouring more data in all the time
The perfect time to come up with some new forcasting tools using all this data

Kondratiev came of with cycle of Prosperity, Recession, Depression, Improvement
Killed by Stalin for delivering bad news

Cortez conquered the Aztecs by convergent ideas, looked like Quetzalcoatl coming from the east on ships that look like winged birds

2012 is boulderdash,
As I said, biggest change from predictions happens after they fail
Harmonic Convergence, solar minimum coincides with Mayan calendar end, modern day superstitious people are more scary than anything else

If looking for a wild card in methods, Joseph Schumpeter (history of business cycles) and Krondratiev) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Schumpeter 

On a personal note: Don't worry too much about Team Projects, it's more about he personal connections you made with people

I cherish friends who are consistently wrong, so you can get the opposite pretty safely

Jack, Jose, and Ross are all futurists, what methods did they find most practical?

Jack: Costs $59 to be a apart of the world futures society, journalistic, writes about the future, every couple of years have a conference with 1-2000 people, useful indicator of future

Ross: Likes backcasting, create utopian future of company, go back to present, and then back to past, if you're thinking about a positive future your attitude is changed. We all make 1000s of automatic decisions every day, if you can convey not only an ideastic end goal but the ways to get there then members of the company/org can make decisions throughout the day to move closer to that goal.

Jose: Inspired by The Limits of Growth [?] Jay Forrester
Trend Impact Analysis - uses Monte Carlo techniques
Trend Impact Analysis: A forecasting technique in which a baseline scenario is constructed using trend extrapolation, future events that may affect this scenario are identified and evaluated on the basis of their probability of occurrence and degree of impact, the combined effect of these events is applied to the baseline scenario to create future scenarios.

Paul Saffo: Forcasting is mapping a cone of uncertainty into the future

Morphological Analysis: Matrices between technologies, possibilities, etc. for thinking outside the box

Take aways:
Jack: Scanning - don't look at news for the news but for indicators

Ross: Reducing uncertainty, it will save your company money

Jose: Simulations and Games, huge power and simulations is more and more useful

Paul: If you want to affect change, seem really boring

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul26-Practical-Methods-of-Robotics-Part-2
"Monday
July 26, 2010 
9:00 - 12:00
Practical Methods of Robotics, Part 2
AIR 
Prerequisite: Practical Methods of Robotics, Part 1 or equivalent experience
Innovations Lab 

Aaron Kemmer
Alaeddine Mokri
Brad Kohlenberg
David Wyler
David Dalrymple

David Roberts
Dmitriy Tseliakhovich
Emiliano Kargieman
Eugenie Rives
Fabio Teixeira
-
Jason Dunn
Javier Mares
Juan Martinez-Barea
Julian Ugarte
Ronen Amit

Zain Jaffer

16 students

PRIOR Robotics Pad: http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul23-Robotics-I

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul28-Energy-Company-Visits
"Wednesday
July 28, 2010 
9:00 - 12:00 
Energy Company Visits 
EES 
Offsite 

Aaron Kemmer
Alaeddine Mokri
Alexandru Celac
Alison Lewis
Ankur Jain

David Dalrymple
David Hutchison
Elizabeth Brook
Emem Andrew
Fabio Teixeira
-
Gary Gautier
Hind Ahmed
Jan Jungclaus
Jason Dunn
John Graves

Juan Martinez-Barea
Julio Silva
Marko Bitenc
Michael Chen
Nolene Naidu
-
Rand Hindi
Raycho Raychev
Ronen Amit
Rosa Chan
San Ko

Tigist Ashenaffi

26 students

Bloom Energy
Eric

SolarCity
Mike Niver
Director of Project Finance
mniver@solarcity.com

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul22-Orban
"Thursday
July 22, 2010 
9:00 - 12:00
The Internet of Things David Orban 
B.583C Atrium 
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaYjc0M2EwNmQtNjI1OC00NWMwLTg3NzUtY2NlZDE4M2JjZjNk&sort=name&layout=list&pid=0B2Ij9HPeinaFODJjNjVlYTItNTlhMC00YzI0LWFlZDEtM2U3NTg3ODc5OTNj&cindex=10

Student Participants:
Aaron Kemmer
Alaeddine Mokri
Alexandru Celac
Alison Lewis
Anders Hvid
Ankur Jain
Canidce Berezan
Carlos Azevedo
Chiara Turelli
Dhaval Chadha
Dmitry Tseliakhovich
Elizabeth Brook
Emiliano Kargieman
Erez Livneh
Eric Ezechieli
Erika Anderson
Eugenia Rives
Fabio Teixeira
Gary Gautier
Jorge Fernandez
Juan Martinez
Julian Ugarte
JulieLynn Wong
Kausar Samli
Luca Escoffier
Marko Bitenc
Michael Chen
Robert Denning
Ronen Amit
Santiago Bilinkis
Sasha Grujicic
Sharon Niv
Steve Cronin
Tigist Ashenaffi
Tyler Kratz
Valentina Margaria
Yara Shaban
Zain Jaffer

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul23-Robotics-I
"Friday
July 23, 2010
9:00 - 12:00 
Practical Methods of Robotics I 
Dan Barry & Neil Jacobstein 

Student Participants:
Aaron Kemmer
Alison Lewis
Anders Hvid
Canidce Berezan
Carlos Azevedo

David Roberts
David Wyler
Dmitry Tseliakhovich
Eric Ezechieli
Fabio Teixeira
-
James Klhlenberg
Javier Mares
Sharon Niv
Tyler Kratz
Valentina Margaria

Zain Jaffer

16 students

NEXT Robotics Pad on July 26: http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul26-Practical-Methods-of-Robotics-Part-2

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul30-Ethics-of-Biotechnology
"Friday
July 30, 2010 
9:00 - 12:00 
Ethics of Biotechnology 
PLE/BB 
B.583C 
Atrium 

Alexandru Celac
Bill Bing
Brad Kohlenberg
Chiara Giovenzana
Chiara Turelli

Claudia Olsson
Elizabeth Brook
Emma Brooke
Jorge Fernandez
Juan Lopez
-
Justin Pahara
Kidist Zeleke
Maggie Jack
Raycho Raychev
Santiago Bilinkis

Sasah Grujicic
Sharon Niv
Zain Jaffer

18 students

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul22-Making-a-GSP10-Signature-Home-brew
"7/22/2010 
Thursday 
Making a GSP10 Signature Home brew

Andrew Fursman
Bill Bing
Bryce Goodman
Chiara Giovenzana
Claudia Olsson

David Wyler
Emma Brooke
Francesco Galietti
James Kohlenberg
James Jacoby
-
Jason Dunn
Justin Pahara
Maggie Jack
Nolene Naidu
Rand Hind

San Ko

16 students

\x3cnotes>

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul22-IBM-Site-Visit
"7/22/2010 
Thursday 
8:00 am bus 

IBM Almaden Site Visit 
Ralph Merkle & Rob Freitas
Bus Transport leaving from B.583C at 8:00 am 
(Please don't be late. The group is expected to be at IBM by 9am)

Student Participants:
x Connor Dickie
x David Hutchison
David Roberts
x David Dalrymple
x Everson Lopes

x Jan Jungclaus
Javier Mares
x John Graves
x Juan Lopez
x Julio Silva
-
x Kidist Zeleke
x Mathew Kern
x Mercy Njima
x Michael Jensen
x Miguel Oroz

x Raycho Raychev
x Rosa Chan
x Sam Thorp
x Tony Lyu
x Vincent Daranyi

20 students

8:18 Departing without David R or Javier.
with Faculty/Staff: Ralph/Rob/Jose/Manuel/Marco

__ Follow up with Gregg Maryniak re: slide 103 spreadsheet

8:49 Arrived at IBM
9:31 Dan Ruger
Three short talks
Bill Hinsberg
Stuart Parkin
Andrea Heinrich

Three lab tours
Low temp STM - Heinrich
MRfm - John Mamin
Spintronics - Kevin Roche

Q: OK to take photos in here. Not in labs.

IBM has 400,000 employees.
Centralized Research Lab
3,000 researchers
9 labs.
Largest in NY, 1,800
second here in San Jose 3-400

Watson, Zurich, China, Tokyo, Haifa, ...

Diversity of research
Behavioral Science
Chemistry - very strong
Computer Science
Elec Eng
Materials - very strong
Math Sci
Physics - quantum computation - most sophisticated 
Service Science, Management & Engineering - help run your IT infrastructure

Long history of Research (anniversary coming up)
1944: Mark I
1948: SSEC
1956: RAMAC
1957: FORTRAN
...
2004: Blue Gene/L

Disk drives in 1950's.
Recording heads
Nobel prizes
Played chess
Copper wiring on silicon chips
Silicon-on-Insulator 1998
Nanotubes
Now exploring with Graphene
Very strong on supercomputing - we are dominant.
Patent Leadership -we have most every year.
Samsung was about to catch up.
We have about 5000 per year.

This building built in 1986
Wild turkeys, deer when you go for a walk

Four main areas at Almaden:
Science and Tech
Computer Science
Storage Systems
Services Research

Q: Number of patents?

We really do value and get a lot of value from IP.
New research president, John Kelly, take advantage.
May not apply to current businesses.

Q: Not due to increasing technologies.

Not sure you can drive exponential.
Increasing recognition of intellectual prowess of this division.

Advanced Materials
We are very strong.
Photoresists, lithography
Chemically amplified, catalyzes a chain of reactions - more efficient
Dielectrics - for wiring low 
Novel memory devices - Stuart will tell about Spintronic
Also Telurium based amorphous crystal - future replacement - much denser than flash.
Changing state.

Self assembly from co-polymers
Membranes for reverse osmosis -desalination.
Vehicles for delivering drug molecules.
- Ads for smarter planet
Environment
Energy
Health Care
Water

More efficient ways to recycle polyethelyene.
PV
Batteries - very efficient for automo

...
1981 Nanoscale Lithography
- The electronics revolution in numbers
Point I want to make here is the enormous improvement
speed 2 orders
storage 5 orders of mag
Cost decrease - iPad is 1/10th cost of IBM PC

How do we do this? Lithography.
Micro electronic devices get smaller.
Movie showing semi-cond mfg process. A couple hundred steps.
This is 12 inch diameter wafer - several 100 chips.
built up in parallel.
Then slice and dice into computers.
Four different steps -
Film deposition
Dopant implant
Film etching
Photo lith
Source of magic - if you can make them smaller. They get less expensive.

Basics of photolith process
Substrate 
Apply resist film
Expose to UV light - through photomask
Layer of quartz - OK to touch these things, they are castoffs.
Change soluability of polymer film - areas covered or not
Remaining polymer coating allows etch or coating.
This happens over and over again to build up elements.
Way to make better/faster/cheaper is to make these smaller.

Moore's law plots the size of the smallest feature as a function of time.
That's how the industry plans.
5 years from now, such and such a feature size.
Exposure tools
How we make masks

Problem is physics and chemistry.
Tried to illustrate that here.
The image you can form with a beam of light is related to wavelength.
Shown here are what happens if you hold wavelength constant.
iPad uses 0.45. 45nm.
Pattern is replica of one you want to form.
Suppose you make it smaller - in some places it pinches down.
Try to make factor or 2 smaller - tricks to get any pattern at all.
Pinches off completely - breaks 
To allow Moore's law to continue - use different wavelength of light.

Currenlty 193 nm light for iPad.
Next, 13 nm. \"Soft XRAY\" - complicated. Must make mirrors not lenses. Need to work in vacuum.
Very expensive.
Photo of EUV at Albany Nanotech - work almost 20 years. Difficult.
My group works on these exposure tools.
We have projects on photoresists, resolving 40 nm in size.

More exotic things
Once EUV has run its course.
Smaller?
Self assembly - natural tendency
- Polymer self-assembly
- Multi-finger geometries: trigate, FinFET, nanowire arrays
We are working to have Directed Self Assembly DSA
Fine lines in between larger pads formed in specific orientation.

- Guilding polymer self-assembly using chemical patterns
doubling
tripling
quadrupling
- can get sub-lithographic lines

- Bio-inspired Self-Assembly
Engineer biomolecules

- Start with biogrid
Pattern of large array on silicon wafer
Apply another small particle

- DNA Origami
Rothemund
These are schematics and results
Use these patterns as our biogrid
At every six nanometers or so, there is a site you can address.
Think of this as a breadboard.
Our game is to figure out how to deposit DNA in a very specific way.
In orientation we want.
DNA caused to sit on wafer in the place we want so we can make connections.
Schmatically - cause carbon nanotube, or wire
Project underway now.
Project showing binding at corners.
~5 nm.
Smallest addressable unit is 6 nanometers.
Spacing between places you can plug - like breadboard.

Q: What is it about this whole process that allows it to be constantly improving?

If you can make pattern half the size, that leads to reduction of area by a factor of 4.
Can make 4x as many, they are faster.
If you work through numbers, mfg cost is about the same.
Mfg 

Q: Costs will scale - in 3D. Each layer will be about the same cost.

You can improve function - if you build them all into 3D. Will improve performance,
but there won't be a significant impact on cost.

Stuart Parkin - very famous for work on Spintronics.
10:16 AM
Entirely new devices for storing data.
Two projects
- racetrack memory. Replace most forms of data storage.
- build new types of computing devices with new types of elements - mimic synapse.

On lab tour you will see this apparatus.
Put thin films down - 7 ultravacuum chambers. 4 different deposit chambers.
Molecular beam epitaxy?
Ablate materials - atomically thin.
1200 degree C
Sputtering - depost onto substrate.
Controlled by computers.
Cost $15 m so far.

Grown film. SrTiO3 - insulating materials can be superconducing - entirely new materials
entirely new phenomena

Spintronics
Entirely new materials.
Take advantage of spin polarized electrons.
In magnetic materials, can create currents that are nearly perfectly spin polarized.
Magnetic fields - atomically thin.
We introduced a spin valve. Can turn on/off by changing relative orientation.
Changes resistance of this device. Sensing device to detect tiny magnetic fields.
Could increase disk drives by 1000 fold.
With modern disk drive technology - we can produce in a month or so, enough 
storage to store all the information in the world.

Different idea - spin polarized current - Magnetic Race-Track.

Mg Oxide. Between two mag layers. A quantum device. Electrons tunnel through the device.
If you extract current - you get electrons with spin from one orientation.
With crystaline materials, further enhance.
With just 5 atomic layers, the polarization is nearly 100%.
If we have these two electrodes with them parallel, or anti-parallel, we can turn the flow off.
During this process, the electron spin is conserved.
Enormous conduction change - x10. Or x5 at room temp.
All disk drives use this. 
Magnetic disk drives are coming to the end. Cheap - but very slow and somewhat unreliable.
Glass disk. Magnetize regions - shrink in 2 dimensions to improve capacity.
This is 2D - a single layer.
So, interestingly, read and write - flys 1 nm above this surface. Reading head can crash!

So, how else can we store? Solid state memory. 2D in nature. Single layer of transistors.
Cross section of magnetic device: Magnetic Random Access Memory - simply detect high or low.
\"Cross point array\"
Proposed non-volatile memory - no power to maintain direction. Proposed in 1995.
15 years later. IBM-IFX 16 Mbit MRAM.
Advantage - very high performance.
Very good endurance - no unreliability. Cost is about 100x higher.
Can we develop a new type that has very cheap cost of disk drive

Each transistor is needed to access bit.
One technology would allow us to reduce size.
One bit per transistor - better to be able to store 100 bits per transistor.
Very simple conceptually.
Achieve by another spintronic concept.
Pass current of upspin / downspin -into magnetic material -scattered at different rates.
This leads to idea that up/down has different resistances.
In some simple magnetic materials at room temperature.
Spin angular momentum current.
This spin must be conserved.
Magnetic moments shift. In between is a \"domain wall\"
Electron which is polarized, spin will evolve, spin orientation - delivers a 
quantum.
On electron can change one magnetic movement.
So the domain wall can more.
Demonstrated in last 3-4 years.
Consider a magnetic wire. This wire has two domain walls.
Head to head wall, tail to tail wall.
Compass needle will follow local magnetic field.
Apply a magnetic field.
Domain walls disappear.
Pass current through a domain wall - prediction the domain walls would move.
Now, in the green region, 
wonderful invention. Here is surface of racetrack. Nanowire.
100 domain walls in this domain wire.
This whole series can be shifted around racetrack.
Read with tunneling junction.
How do you get walls where you want.
Within this device - 
JG: like a tape in a Turing machine
Indeed.
Would have the density of a disk drive. But a million times faster.
Can build a device as dense but 100,000 faster.
Entirely new concept.
Innately 3D.

Second project. \"Brain in a box\" Modha
Elements to make this possible.
Future? Less of Moore's Law - power density constant? No longer the case
More energy wasted. To overcome this, go 3D.
Way today- take to wafers, stick together with wires.

Need 3D devices, like the brain.
Synapse - about 20,000 synaptic connections - plastic.
Mohda
Spike timing - synapse plasticity - increase/decrease conductance.
So we can use magnetic tunnel junction -spin polarized to mimic synaptic behavior
Looks like synapse.
Conclusion: we need to move from 2D - as with all memory and logic.

Q: Jose: Smart energy and batteries.
Quarktronics.

Anything is possible.
Quantum computing - spins - phase. Quantum dots - individual spins.
Quantum bits - how turn on / off. Major major project in Australia. In Silicon.
Control placement of individual spins.
Very important development - electric fields can be used.
Through Rushbaugh? or Thrussle?
Q: Blue Brain /Switzerland
Very different underlying concept - understand how individual synapse is constructed.
Goal here is different - entirely different from anything you find in the brain.
Q: What is connection between mimicing and racetrack 
Connection is spintronics. 
Q: Why want to mimic?
Why mimic brain? It does things much better than modern electronics.
Computer would have trouble identifying you.
Particular structure - go beyond even the brain.
Not just raw processing power but pre-processing. Very important concepts like imaging.
Silicon is good at linear.
Parallel is key to visualization.

10:45 Andreas Heinrich
I wanted to tell you the story of
Gerd Binng and Heini Rohrer
We have two scanning tunneling microscope
STM
We need to be able to see atoms.
Now go down to single atom. 
Take away from fab environment to lab.
Robot that can put a needle over a single atom.
On atomic scale - needle is sharp down to atomic level.
Place within 1 nm.
Electrons bridge barrie.

Q: How did you make the sharp needle?
We use very crude techniques - not reproducable - but we can see if sharp or not.
Black magic.

Q: 
Robot can move to within 1/1000th.
Current is extremely.

Distance of 1 nm. If we go to 1.1 nm, you get factor of 10 reduction in current.

Change in factor or 10 is fairly constant.
Use robot, move tip up and down.
Tunneling electrons,
moving the tip.
Hence the name.

You've seen these pictures. Atoms on the surface. Single atom above the surface.

Q: How fast is it?
Speed is not very fast. Photo of this quality - about 1 min or so.
We do specialize in some very fast - nanosecond resolution movies.

Q: Do you break the tip?
Not that big a deal. Just move to another area.

Program in Switzerland -1000 tips working in parallel.
If you were to use this for mfg, very difficult.

- Eigler - microscope built 20 years ago.
Low-temperature Ultra-High-Vacuum STM
Positioning via peizo electric.

Feynman's vision.
Here in this building, brought to level where you could actually do this.
- How to move atoms with atomic precision. 
Increase current - bring atoms close together -forms chemical bond.
\"The atom hops from one site to another\"
- Feynman's dream fulfilled?
Eigler wrote IBM. About 20 years ago.
Interesting physics discoveries.
What happens to wave function - visualize \"quantum corral\"
Image - more than location of atoms - but wave function of electrons.

- Creating tools with atoms: Molecule Cascade
Initial step 1.9 nm^2
Individual molecule of CuO. Two side by side.
Chevron - always will hop.
Can build a structure where you transmit - pairs of molecules. First chevron,
hop creates second chevron.
Information that is transmitted like dominos on a table.
Put molecules in a meta-stable environment.
Use STM to build cascade of length.
Q: Can you reset this?
Same as dominos. Reset painstakingly.
Positive side of it.
Most complicated thing on this atomic scale.
X Y Z inputs.
Outputs count how many inputs.
AND and OR gates.
Arbitrary logic operation on atomic scale.
X -> 1
+ Y -> 2
+ Z -> 3

Any mistake in there, this device doesn't work.
Q: Time scale?
On order of an hour.
Purposely chose them for study.

Q: Jose: How long to write SU.
On the order of 1-2 hours.
Not today.

Anything can be done for a price.
11:00
SDM
Nano MRI
Spintronics lab
Back here before noon.
12:38 On bus heading back to NASA.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul21-Autodesk
"7/21/2010
3:00pm
Autodesk
- For every serious challenge facing the world
[video runs -
it needs to be explored
bring to life
is at the core innovation.
Our technology gives innovators
how their ideas
perform
To experience it before it is real.
There is not a problem in the world too big to solve.
]
Jonathan Knowles: Work here at Autodesk.
Own the relationship between SU and Autodesk.
Work closely with Salim. CEO and CTO.
Innovation lab - how is that going.
Week before \"no idea what to do\"
Can't get them out of the lab - there until 5 AM.
A week - a cube designed and printed - oh my god.
Dan Barry- visiting lecturer. Something on Thingaverse.
Stayed up all night.
by 2 orders of magnitude.
230,000 lines of code.

Great bunch.
Know bits - involved in selection process.
Looking at various applications.
Went through exec program as participant.
We did early to late - 10 days.
You do it for 10 weeks.
Don't know how you do it.
Regular thing to come to Autodesk.
Don't understand all the places we are in.
\"If God didn't design it, some of our customers did.\"
Design technologies.
Consult for people
Look for us to thought leader - for now and aiming correctly.
They'll end up in the right place.

First, a couple of Autodesk folks.
Then - 30 min each. get you out, feed you, something to drink, networking.
Have a good time in gallery.
Talk about cool 3D printed things.
Fully expect that you will.
Engage with you.
Introduce CTO Jeff Walski.
These guys blew my cover. These guys - I planned to just visit you. Come into program.
Experiene what we do.
Will be around.
Would love to speak with you.
Value in program.
Your personal interests. Energy you bring to the program.

Getting Jeff down to spend time with you folks.

We do think the way SU does.
Not necessarily new. Some specifics may be.
VP of Corporate Strategy - Design Thinking.
Change the way you think about that word Design.

John Pittman. Met some of you at the opening. Great to see you all here.
Usually a few empty seats. Packed toward front. Good sign.
What I'd like to talk about is design.
Teach class at Berkeley. Strategic design.
It boils down to what things we offer.
Beautiful objects. Has some function to it too.
Challenge that notion - yes, about that, but about much more.
- [slide with mission statement of SU]
Lot of parallel between what we do and what customers do
- Autodesk helps people imagine, design, and create a better world

When first started getting involved - Technology / Design [yin / yang]
Service technology to some human need.
Technology creates a lot of waste.
Design is a process to eliminate that.
Three main points
Take invention into innovation - that serves human need.

Design needed to address grand challenges

What Autodesks customers are doing. See it in the gallery.

First, what is design.
Systematic process of turning invention into innovation.
Diagram from IDEO.
Design Thinking -
People / Business / Tech feasility - interesting things happen at these intersections.

Need all three. Sometimes out of balance.
Bring together and balance them.
Integration of these three things.
At least these perspectives.

Question? How many of you have had these devices - early MP3 players.
Why don't you use them today?

[size]
[iPod]
Existed. They may still be around, but not in the market.
Why was this such a successful product
[sexy]
[leader]
[better user interface]
A number of the things you said - form, function and business. Leader.
Truth is all contributed to success.
Beautiful.
What really made it successful was a bunch of stuff -
the apple stores
the brand - a business system. All the pieces worked well together.

Alison: Built in such a way that others can personalize it.
Further example of a business system.
When we think about design success, it is about systems.

Michael Porter.
David R: Strategy
Invented concepts.
: Value Chain.
: Diamond Model
One thing he said, 
1989 article
Source of competitive advantage - all gains will be competed away. Down to zero.
But there is a way out of that. 
So, he said, if you find a true source - it is a competitive business system.
The thing that makes it is FIT.
Any one of these things is not sufficient, it is the connection of all the elements and
how they fit together.

Think of iPad- extends iPod.
Sasha: Got a few things right, rest of system benefits.
That made 99 cents more powerful.

Whole thing was not conceived at the beginning. They started, as they added, made sure there was
a strong fit.
I maintain that is a design problem.

I was home last night reading Newsweek.
New book on Design : Design is how it works.
Not just beauty. Experience for customer.
Book not out yet, I'm looking for it.
Making something that truly works for a customer in multiple dimensions.
If you talk to lots and lots of organizations - ask, where does design fit?
Put in pipeline after User Needs - becomes little d design.
Transitory. Not competitive advantage. Momentary, not long term value.

We see Design as a noun. A thing.
A lot of world looks at the world that way.

Strategic - whole system together.
Design follows whole set of activities.

Example: Kindle.
Follows iPod -
First one was kind of ugly. But syncs with store, thought about whole system.
Activity or process or stance.
Core message to you: think like designers.
People will come speak to you about this.

Core elements - 
User Centered / Empathy
Exploratory
Multiple Disciplines
Prototyping

Integrated / Holistic

Standing in the shoes of your customer.
MBA students - \"we'll do a survey\"
Get personal enough what Justin would want and contrast that with Nolene.
Not to design products to a specific person, but to aim for needs.

Ford Taurus. Market research - made people uncomfortable.
So they would do surveys, produce average cars.
People would say, not what I expected. Struck a chord. Very successful.
Being Empathic - from observation - watching them, talking to them, but not
necessarily asking a question.

Blue ocean - free your mind from existing constraints. Think broadly. Not tread on ground tread before.

Multiple disciplines - any ONE can't solve it all.
Another reason - disciplines create shackles.
Where did department structure of modern unversity come from?
In Germany 300 years ago - organize? What is the \"taxonomy of knowledge\"?
It is a 300 year old hierarchy.
So each leaf fissioned. More and more specialized.
Boundaries are not where the problems are.
Creative solution is intersection or connection.

Prototyping culture. Very difficult if you just think. Prototype, however crude, let's you 
interact. Understand What have I created.
Take to customer
Take to peers. Here is what I am talking about.
Concrete thing - doesn't have to be a physical object, but something tangible.
What you see out here are tools.

So - shift gears a bit.
Design for grand challenges.
David Dell: Team or individual.
Both.
Design stance for individuals.
They have to work on a team.
The Fountainhead. Ann Rand.
Admissions. Art tradition of design.

Architecture profressor. Surveys to find biggest deficiency of gradates: ability to work in teams.

IDEO coined terms T shaped individuals - deep, but broad.

Design for grand challenges - heirarchical nature of knowledge.

Globalization - 
2 things. Enormous opportunity. Number entering middle class is enormous.
Different opportunity than you see here.
Used to be dumb down, take to India and sell it.
Took different approach - designe FOR India. Then take that to rural America.
Reverse innovation.
Great opportunity for globalization.

Second. In a \"flat\" world, allow products/service to be created anywhere.
Offerings is what differentiates you.

Over half now live in cities. Lot of great ones. Some not so great.
Climate change. Comes from reductive approach.
Economists limit the externalities. Don't account for costs.

Lot of clients do buildings. Here are numbers:
1/3 of energy use ...

All these problems are systems problems. Systems in the large.

Last thing = Autodesk customer do.
- Role of Digital Prtototyping
Effort to Effect ratio vs Time. [line drops]
Further along development you get, less impact.

Cost of change 
the opposite - easy to change early. Later, very expensive.

Most leverage over the outcome - low cost, high leverage.

Most design processes - spent like this [hump in middle]
Try to shift to left. Prototype earlier.

Example 
form, function, performance.

Couple of things.
Design takes invention and applies to a problem.
If you worked in a lab - that you? [Tasha]
New stuff.
Take time to see the gallery. Illustrates what our customers do.

3:37 [applause]
Jonathan: Excellent John
First of all. Someone drawing on the wall in the back. Tom.
[applause]
Involved in strategic initiatives. Visualize what is going on in a space.

Other person in the room is Bill O'Connor.
Also involved in strategic initiatives. A little bit crazy, but that is why he is on the team.
[applause]

Last up. Mad scientist here at Autodesk. VP of Autodesk labs. They wear white coats
and do crazy stuff to shake up the world of design.
Brian is going to talk about tech trends in the design space.
Amaze.

3:39 Brian P. Mathews
Think how tech and design meet.
Most people think of CAD
CAD is dead.
Design happens in your head.
28 year old CAD company.
For first time in history, we are going to have true CAD.
This is part of your mantra as well.
7 tech trends.
Frame our R&D dollars.
Can't talk about some things.
Road ahead for design.

First human centered design. IN 1982 - PC came along.
Problem was cryptic commands.
With human centered design, computers work the way we do.
1980s - play and grab and interact.
Touch walls coming along - about 2 and half years before iPhone.

Look back a few years. This was interface for a CAD professional.
Computers were slow.
I've been asked how to drill a hole in a plate.
Different today.
Direct manipulation on the object.

Not screen, on the table.
3D mouse you pick up move around. Accelerometers, radios in it.
Version you squeeze, push like clay.

We collect data on customers. Look at use.
What OS
What processor
Build better product 

Which commands are most popular.
Statistical modelling of order.
Kind of a map - ruts in the grass at a university.
think of commands as paths.
Figure out what people are trying to do.
I already know with 60% prob, what their next choice is.
If I have 20 steps, can come up with 88% correct prediction.

AutoCAD has 2,500 commands. People only use 5%.
Nobody knows all the information.
We can find what you are probablistically going to do,
if expert is going to do something different, watch the video.

Let computer be involved in design process itself.
Do analysis.
Green energy. Earthquake.
Have a dashboard effect.
Tells your manufacturability, cost, greenness.
Krypton.

Second trend. Bring into real world.
This is not a plant. Not a photo. A point cloud. Every single point is a 3D in space with an RGB attached.

This is the device - $35,000 - $50,000.
Digitize a city.
For $2,000 you can put it on your desk.
Convert analog world, turn it into virtual.

Prototype and analysis.

Show other technology. Live demo.
Taken photos of co-workers. Normal camera from phone.
Here we did a person. Conver to a 3D model automatically.
We'll let that load.
These are models, not out of lasers. Photogemitry. Texture map it, it looks like real thing.
Spin and modify.
Here is the density of the point cloud.

He is a full 3D model. Done via photos.

Take photos of Chicago from plane - you could have full 3D model in a few minutes.

A lot more to show. Next trend:
Make it digital. Put in cloud. Massive. Centralized. Interesting in effects.

Data is not interesting. Information. Google search - based on text.
Parametric-based pump. \"Pump\" in Google may get women's shoes.
Centralization - product data - so other systems can use it.
We are doing things around design data - cost, stress of materials, and so on.
Bio mimicry - how does the butterfly cool itself. Get color in wings.
Instead of butterfly - reorganize to be useful in design.
How do they cool themselves.

Next trend: Do something.
V isualize
S imulate
A nalyze

Moore's law is 2D. Data center is 3D.
X netbook costs $y. So I want a workstation. 2X in performance, costs more than 2x -usually over 4X.
Exponential cost curve.
Dramatic increase for small increments of performance.

Neat thing about Moore's law - every 18 months, divided by 2.
Still goes to infinite.
Everything goes to infinity.
[line shifts to the right]
Moore's law is pretty darn important.
Think how dramatic Moore's law is, but what if 2x cost 2y dollars.
And always at lowest point.
1 computer on my desk for 10,000 seconds, costs 25 cents.
OR
in the cloud.
10,000 computers for 1 second - and the cost is the same.

For the first time in history - why are we all waiting.
If I can get things done instantly - lots of different prototypes.
Press - better/cheaper/faster
Trend is actually doing things you never could before.
10,000 computers is easy - have own personal one.
\"Speculative computing\"
Have the computer do the design.
Two ways to make door latch work:
What is optimal.
Process today - think of something. Document in CAD and then analyze.
If it succeeds, they build it as an acceptable solution.
OR
Try 1000s of designs. Computer tells what is optimal.
Use genetic computers - done in same time as doing one.
Flip around, have computer do all kinds of analysis and inspire the shapes.
All sorts of people doing this.

All through being able to simulate reality.
Cloud computing and really fast computing.
How materials behave - almost at an atomic level.

Example of kitchen - $250,000 design.
Other was light bouncing around. Which is the real room?
Two photos - one actual. Real display way too bright.

Both fake - car and person.
Can render car at 30 fps.
Every car in ad has smoked windows. All visualizations.

[7 min remaining]
4:02

This is one of our customers. VSA. Simulate reality and physics.
Renders that take 4 hours. Here I change flooring. In about 3/4 seconds.
Photoshop in pixels.
Change color of walls. This is a physics based simulation.
Can do something that takes 4 hours. Each frame of Avatar takes 48 hours to render.

That is Digital Reality.

What do we need to do next?
[production]
Production right. You know about 3D printing.
Take digital to analog.
Print own legos.
Way to frame this = were $250,000 a pop.
Today? Price of a TV.
Laser - price of TV. About 2 grand.
Dot matrix.
Original laser printer was $150,000
Resolution up, cost down by 30%.
One company can print a battery.

Used to have craftsman.
Industrialization - economies the same.
Now digital production - where is the cost point? Actually cheaper.
How do we do music - mfg, distribute it? No. Just electronically.
Microwave oven.
At first, go to the mall - scan part of you. print in store.
Then print in own home.
Only thing left is the design.
That, and marketing.

Another is augmented reality. Better, cheaper.
Here is where AR is today.
Difference between Avatar - renderings done in real time.
Live video, combine.
Ultimate call before you dig. Stud finder.
Other thing related.
Low level tech of how you track things.
Place virtual building. Locks in some pixel accuracy.
Locked in so you can't tell it is not there.
Put information on objects.

Today. We have experts. Professionals. Who designs.

Last tech trends. Integration - the net effect.
Through software as a service.
Integrating people, data. Who does the design.
Where people do somethings and computer does more. 
Democratizing the process.
So, certainly mobile access is a big thing in that.
Old way - teams cametogther. Had combinatorial problem.
How you can centralize = bring people to it.

Bring design to people.
Web-based design tool
Construction rules.
Catalog of real parts.
3D tool \"Homestyle\" User interface for non professionals.

Ability to run applications over the internet. Remoting.
Imagine a 3000 mile long video cord.
GotomyPC.
This is - Netflix in HD. 10 seconds buffering.
Frame rate in Go to Meeting?
Latency in seconds.
This has 2 miliseconds of latency. Just like being there.
This machine is 1000 miles away.

I'm working on, say, Dreamliner. Terrabytes of centralized data.

- future. [sunrise]
Take away.
True computer AIDED design.
Our job will be to do the dreaming.

Jon: I saw Dan Barry in the back thinking, I'm going to ask for 10,000 computers in the cloud.

Tom: walk around with video camera - what is design, value of design, future of design.
Give me a 30 second, 60 second clip.

25 of you are in running in marathon. 5 AM. Across the street.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul22-IBM
"Thursday
July 22, 2010 
9:00 - 12:00 (All Sessions unless otherwise specified)
IBM Almaden Site Visit 
Ralph Merkle & Rob Freitas
Bus Transport leaving from B.583C at 8:00 am 
(Please don't be late. The group is expected to be at IBM by 9am)

Student Participants:
Connor Dickie 
David Dalrymple 
David Hutchison 
David Roberts 
Everson Lopes 
Jan Jungclaus 
Javier Mares 
John Graves 
Juan Lopez 
Julio Silva 
Kidist Zeleke 
Mathew Kern 
Mercy Njima 
Michael Jensen 
Miguel Oroz 
Raycho Raychev 
Rosa Chan 
Sam Thorp 
Tony Lyu 
Vincent Daranyi 

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul30-Independent-Study-Workshop
"Friday
July 30, 2010 
9:00 - 12:00 
Independent Study Workshop
in Autodesk Lab or at Techshop 
Note: Make sure your proposals are in and approved by Dan Barry before the session (dan.barry@singularityu.org) 

Alison Lewis
Bryce Goodman
Dmitriy Tseliakhovich
Hind Ahmed
Julielynn Wong

Mercy Njima
Sam Thorp
Sarahjane Pell
Tigist Ashenaffi

9 students

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul28-Independent-Study-Workshop
"Wednesday
July 28, 2010 
9:00 - 12:00 
Independent Study Workshop
in Autodesk Lab or at Techshop 
Innovations Lab or off-site 
(Note: You should have sent Dan Barry your half page proposal before the start of the session) 

Bryce Goodman
Chiara Turelli
Connor Dickie
Eugenie Rives
Francesco Galietti

Juan Lopez
Julielynn Wong
Kausar Samli
Kidist Zeleke
Luca Escoffier
-
Maggie Jack
Sam Thorp
Valentina Margaria
Vincent Daranyi
Zain Jaffer

15 students

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul28-Implications-of-Nanofactories
"Wednesday
July 28, 2010 
9:00 - 12:00 
Implications of Nanofactories 
NT 
B.583C 
Water TP Rm 

Andrew Fursman
David Roberts
Diva Tommei
Emiliano Kargieman
Erez Livneh

Javier Mares
Justin Pahara
Matthew Kern
Tyler Kratz

9 students

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jun28-3D-Printing
"June 28: 3D Printing

To propose and vote on questions for this session, please follow this link:
http://www.allourideas.org/gsp103dprinting

Scott Summit: www.summitid.com

Design is tied at the hip to mass production. B
enefits of mass production includes cheap products due to volumes. 

Rethink mass production -

3D Scanning: 
Different types of high end scanners exhibited. You can also use image correlation with multiple cameras to produce a 3D image. Hollywood also uses this extensively. Example avatar
You can scan countries (Sweden), people etc

a) High-res geometry, b) real-time hybrid map rendering, c) offline SSS rendering

Do anything you want, stretch it, tweak with it, etc.

Parametrics:
If you're going to do aything big it needs to be scalabe, nothing should be treated as one-offs, let the computer do the work ... offload the work to the computer, so it does the work for you ... modify one parameter, and all the others can change and you can create new shapes, the others can change and you can create new shapes... wine glass at stanford, e.g, change one piece of geometry 

Something more practical, like a house display, you can build logic and paramters, so it has loads of codes - the user can drag walls, pull windows etc .... but it won't let them violate things if it will cause problems? Students shaping houses -but following codes like earth quakes, thermal etc.

Printing:
Even if you are not an architect the computer allows you to modify the design until you get to your intended design.
Suddenly, complexity is free: E class with full options and an E-Class basic now costs the same.
You can now make every and anything even Rhinojewellry!! You can make anything simply by printing it. Get shapes you never imagined or seen.

Digital Fabrication - Metals:
High definition high quality metal parts. 
See the artist Bathsheba (http://www.bathsheba.com/ http://www.shapeways.com/shops/bathsheba) who does those mathematical shapes in metal.

The Arts: Making physical what you imagined- Photos of some great art. You can now get individualised art from lamps to chairs etc.

Medical stuff: Plan before you cut. 3D print the bone structure of injured limb or cranium and use it for surgery or replacement providing a perfect fit.

Teeth: Dental industry loves this, each tooth is unique - you can't mass produce this but this technology is perfect for this. 

Biomiimicry: Why design it, when you can evolve it? Military is biggest researcher of this, animals are always in a survival fight, let's find out how they do this?

Generative design. Termite mound - slicing it up, build a 3D model, better understand how they maintain their homeostasis - complex! Can take inspiration from nature and recreate it. E.G, Digitally capturing a sneeze?! - surfaced the sneeze, blew it up and 3D printed it - buying snot for $300 at the Museum of Modern Art!

A new business model, product without inventory, zero statup costs....

http://www.shapeways.com - upload, they will send to you in 10 days. E.G - Make a ring, load it shape ways.

Print on demand. FOC: No inventory for the, no upfront costs... making complex lamps usually costs millions with significant risk. Bunch of college grads set this up. Invites adventure, encourages creativity, 

Putting it together: Discovery Channel's Pyropack - 
A Body Part You would like to have: Symetry is restored - $5k cost, even a $70,000 leg wouldn't be like this...?

Tattoos, anything - complexity is free. Get people jealous with 3D body parts. You can get your shape back after suffering an accident, might seem like a small thing but makes ahuge difference, even something as simple as being able to wear two boots of the same size. It's about returning a sense of self or wholeness to the person, not pretending to be human tissue but coming up with something that can give someone a form or shape back. John as an example, 3D printing with a thin layer of metal, looks cool, barrier to entry is tough! Very different perspective after having this. *These can be dishwasher safe*. It's as green as it gets too, very trivial environmental cost - ticks all the right boxes. You can even design it like the fairings on a motorcycle - 

www.summitid.com
scott@summitid.com
(415) 546-6916

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Diamond_Age

3D printing food is not far off. http://www.firstscience.com/home/articles/technology/futuristic-food_1734.html

Fabrication: Subractive, Formative, Additive

Slow in operation. Limited choice of materials. 
Slow speed
Not scalable

Why automate construction?
-labor efficiency is alarming low
-low work quality
-skilled workforce is vanishing
-control of the construction site is insufficient and difficult
-accident rate is high
-waste and trims are high
-low income housing and emergency shelters are critical
-construction is the largest sector of almost all economics
-all other products are fabricated automatically - construction is still slowwww.

Costs for average house construction??
-$4 million for molds
-200,000 pieces
-500,000 lbs

What will do in terms of cost saving:
-labor significantly reduced by 45-55 percent
-materials reduced by 25-30 percent (a wasteless/lean process)
-time to market reduced by 20-25 percent (quicker)

Lunar construction
-using lunar regolith
-build roads, buildings, etc.
-concrete can be shapped without a mold . . .

Limitations are conducive to creativity.

What have built already??
-4-layer fabricated walls (tiny, but extremely strong... nice tensile strength)
-automated wall paper design
-imbedding sensors and IT components (smart structures with sensors in the wall). Can get information such as structural health monitoring, temperature, heat, and security.
-Green ...

CRAFT: Center for Rapid Automated Fabrication Technologies - created at USC. 
http://craft.usc.edu/Mission.html

http://contourcrafting.org

Forbes Article - http://www.forbes.com/leadership/claytonchristensen/

machines require about 2,000 watts to operate. Cost savings is as high as 70% compared to traditional house construction.

system shown takes about 1.5 hours to setup, new carbon fiber system takes about 15 minutes to setup

Q: What if system was bigger and had multiple nozzles to just extrude the building?
Hard enough getting one nozzle to work.
Couldn't get resolution.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul22-Homebrew----
"Thursday
July 22, 2010 
9:00 - 12:00
Make a GSP 10 Signature Homebrew 
Andrew Hessel 
B.583C Water Room

Student Participants:
Andrew Fursman 
Bill Bing 
Bryce Goodman 
Chiara Giovenzana 
Claudia Olsson 
David Wyler
Emma Brooke 
Francesco Galietti 
James Jacoby 
James Kohlenberg 
Jason Dunn 
Justin Pahara 
Maggie Jack 
Nolene Naidu 
Rand Hind 
San Ko 

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul2-IDEO
"Friday
7/2/21
2:30-5:30
IDEO
innovation = creation resulting from study and experimentation.

Jeffery Moore article \"Darvin and the Demon\".

Focus on 4 methods for innovation

IDEO is a professional services organication. creating impact through design. apply human centered approach to innovaiton of products services difital media and environments.

Paid to visualize opportunities based on insights IDEO gains and how to foster innovation.

Myth: innovation is an innate skill instead of a learned behaviour.
Innovation is a learnable skill. How do you learn it?
Design Thinking
1. create an interdisciplanary team with T-shaped people
2. observe to become inspired
3. Use your inspiration to visuale possibliities
4. drive continueinnovation through prototyping.

ONE: 
A necessary member of an interdisciplanary team is a T shaped indivdual
The long leg of a T represents your depth
Horizontal leg of a T represents your willingness to dabble. Your empathy towards other disciplines.
We recommend that at the earliest stages of innoaation you look for T shaped peole
honest appreciation and empathy for other disciplines with 3 perspectives:
1) Business viabliity - business and policy.
2) user desirability
3) innovation is built by constraints...
3) Technical opportunities

Marketing companies view \"creatives\" as a noun that are locked away and don't interact with other members of org.
If you are thinking about something big, a basic understanding of the business is essential to the innovatinon process
In dealing with constraints, you should inform the team about them and creatively solve together

it is incumbant upon us to by example and by leadership to expand our behavior.

The most innovative companies Use Both of the following:

Technology Push - lets take some IP and think of/delivery every possible application e.g.: Qualcomm
Technology Pull - lets look at human issues/megatrends - what tech can we use to address these opportunities e.g.: Proctor and Gamble
Successful and the most innovative orgs use both, DO NOT TAKE EITHER OF THESE IN EXCLUSION. Complement tech push with tech pull.

Present Trend:

Humans demand a lot of info (due to success of google) compared to many years ago... how does this affect consumer markets?? etc.

Dynamic Role of Technologies
In early explorations, broad aggregaitions of technology are considered and judgement is deferred. As concepts mature, \"engineering thinking\" is employed, with a focus on feasibility, risk mitigation and reliability.

Mentioned the Tacoma Narrows bridge collapse http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXyG68_caV4

Don't think of new technologies as risk, but as opportunities and inspiraton. Do not put any judgement out there. 

You know you've done a good job if everyone on the team knows about the entire project and can converse efficiently

IDEO Managment Book, looking to help coach us or introductions to experts. 
Celebrate diversity of personality
Take a personality-centered approach to team leadership, and NEVER impose personal style , norms or values on other team members. 

Tacoma Narrows Bridge

A) TEamBuilding

1)Celebrate diversity of personality
Take a personality-centered approach to team leadership, and NEVER impose personal style , norms or values on other team members. 

2. Delegate at the appropriate level. Supervised, coaching, support, full delegation

3. Maintain the project vision - get everyone's buy in...do not move forward on a detailed project w/o everyone's buy in. Make sure everyon has a full understanding of the broad vision

4. Support Morale- motivate, reinforce, refuel

B) Observe to Become Inspired
It is through heart-felt empathy and the desire to succeed that the team will come up with the best solutions/ideas.

Women heads of household: when paying a bill for $27, they would round up to $30 in their check log. This became the inspiration for Bank of America's \"Keep the Change Program\"

Synthesis is the art of making meaning and finding direction
Procedure:
1) Tell stories from the field (download)
2) look for patterns (post it notes are a great tool) resort to find themes
3) extract the key insights
4) craft your message (build a story board, model, pptx, etc.)

Example: water for communities
1) studied how women in countries collected water
Even though the innovation in this project was the distribution model, it was through storytelling that the team was able to build the existing behaviors of local women into the model, so that it would be valued by the communities. Bring in insights from the field to give the projects the depth and richness that will allow them to live on.

Brainstorm once a week - one person is the facilitator and creates rules

Using post-it notes for prototyping

Microsoft Vine

Prototyping flow:
1. What could be
2. What should be
3. What will be

each person gets three votes, distributed how ever you want, easiest way to vote is to dot the one you like.

If you can't describe your idea in 2min (if you're lucky), then you're never going to get anywhere!!

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul26-Building-a-Bacteria-Battery
"Monday
July 26, 2010 
9:00 - 12:00
Building a Bacteria Battery 
EES 
B.583C 
Water TP Room 

Alexandru Celac
Alison Lewis
Chiara Turelli
Elizabeth Brook
Erika Anderson

Hind Ahmed
Julio Silva
Justin Pahara
Kidist Zeleke
Maggie Jack
-
Marko Bitenc
Miguel Oroz
Rosa Chan
San Ko
Tyler Kratz

Valentina Margaria
Yara Shaban

17 students

"
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul23-Merkle-and-Reiffle
"Friday
July 23, 2010
9:00 - 12:00 
Thermal Limits of Computation 
Ralph Merkle 
Slides: http://bit.ly/9Rlta0
Eleanor Reiffle 
Slides: http://bit.ly/a9FMLr

Student Participants:
Alaeddine Mokri
Alexandru Celac
Claudia Olsson
David Dalrymple
x Emiliano Kargieman

Emma Brooke
Erez Livneh
Erika Anderson
x John Graves
Juan Lopez
-
Juan Martinez
Julian Ugarte
Kausar Samli
Maggie Jack
X Mathew Kern

x Michael Jensen
x Nolene Naidu
Robert Denning
x Ronen Amit
Santiago Bilinkis
-
x Sasha Grujicic
Tigist Ashenaffi
xxGary Gautier

x David Wyler

22 Students

xx = in room before john
x = in room at 9:13
X = in room at start 9:21

Ralph: 
What ...
a couple decades ago, I thought about what you could do with computers, realized heat was a big problem.
To begin with I will talk about heat.
Then Eleanor will talk about quantum computing.
Recall Gordie talked about quantum computing.
This will be deeper into the quantum world.

What makes a good computational device?
Some folks at IBM Watson - Robert W. Keyes
wrote an article - 
1985 Science
First: needs to be fast. Really important.
This involves fast signal propagation.
We've got this thing called the speed of light. Very irritating.
So device has to be small - if you want the device to switch rapidly, 
then getting the signal to propagate it has to be small.
And the distance to the next device needs to be small.
So you get high density.
Low cost is crucial if you need to have lots of devices.
Need good fan in / fan out - because these are crucial.
High reliability - when device produces and output signal, need a way to recover.
The lousy output signal is 
If approx 1 volt, needs to be made to be 1
If approx 0
Needs to be done at fairly regular intervals.
But signal degrades.

Finally, low power. If you dissipate too much you are toast - literally.
You have to pay the power bill.
You FRY your logic.

If you've got those core \"we could make computational devices out of marshmallows\"
and new wonderful devices -
grossly fail
These guys are blowing smoke.
Not writing a paper to actually propose a competitive device.
Not the core values of replacing the devices
There is a reason the devices are as dominant as they are.
BECAUSE they do a good job of hitting the criteria.

- Computation
Many gates
in a small volume
operating at high speed
generate too much heat.

So, let's take a look.

- The exploding computer
A Molecular Computer
With 10^18 gates (10x10x10 nm^3)
In one cubic centimeter
with one nanosecond switching speeds
Dissipating log(base 2) kT per operation
Generates ~3 million watts ( T ~ 300K )

This back of the envelope calculation suggests we have an issue with heat.

- Can a switching operation dissipate less than thermal noise, log(base 2)(kT)?

- Rolf Landauer 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolf_Landauer
Irreversibility and heat generation in the computing process
IBM Journal of Research and Development 5, No. 3, pp.183-191 (1961)

He said, if anyone proposes a new logic device, 99% of them won't work.
In fact, he was infamous for pointing out that people's proposals were terrible.
In any rate, R L pointed out that reversible logic could evade this heat issue.
He also thought reversible logic wasn't very useful.

Amazing bit of insight. Certain kinds of logic don't have to emit heat.

So, what is \"reversible\"
- without forgetting
- without ...

Condenser - a device that stores charge.
Will discharge whenever there is an electrical path between the two leads.
If, say, 5 volts on the condenser. Call that logic 1.
If 0 volts, then logic 0.
Now we can set that condenser to 0 is to close the switch in this circuit.
Condenser will discharge via short to ground.
Result will be - no charge. If you close the switch, you will have erased one bit, logically irreversible.
When you erase one bit and set charge to 0, then you have dissipated energy.
You have dissipated at least log(base 2) kT.
With a real condenser, you have dissipated much MORE.
In fact condensers in real circuits dissipated more.

Does this make sense. Yes. Core point.

Now we have a NAND gate.

If we apply voltages to both of the gates, A and B, it will block conductivity and \"A and B\" condenser will charge.
If we remove charge, it will conduct charge, so \"A and B\" will dissipate energy discharging the condenser.

Pretty much all our computers use this. They are irreversible. And dissipative.

- Energy Dissipated Per Logic Operation
Over time, trend line intersects kT \"limit\" around 2018.
This particular interesting value suggests a couple things may happen.
If we continue to use conventional dissipative reversible logic, we will asymptotically approach this limit.
You can't go below kT.
Second possibility is we switch over to some reversible operations.
If we do 90% reversible and 10% irreversible, we could go below kT overall.
Reversible could go below kT and rest could be near (but still above) kT.
More and more people in the computer industry - 
latest computers are getting hotter and hotter.
More heat dissipation.
More parts of chip turned off.
Heat is a problem.
No reason to believe problem will go away any time soon.
Suggests driving pressure to use reversible logic will get stronger and stronger.

10W of brain
Tricks you can play to get more computational power per W.
Brain is pissing away energy.
If you look at a synapse - operating 

Nerve impulse coming up to synapse - well above kT. Will emit chemicals - dissipative.
Brain is irreversible.
Operating above the kT line
Way it keeps things under control
Uses coding techniques - 
Suppose 16 wires. Send one pulse - sent 4 bits of information
Now suppose I use timing - transmitted even more bits.
Get more bits with one pulse than a single wire.

Rob: Under 1 kHz
Ralph: Pathetic.
Wonderful results, but 
unreliable
terrible system - never try to voluntarily design a system out of nerves. They are awful.
And I didn't say this.

Sasha: Thermal noise. To what extent can we reduce room temperature?

Ralph: If we want to reduce energy consumption- reduce kT.
You spend as much on the refridgerator - than on the chips.
Some work at low temperature. They like to work at 4 Kelvins.
So we will build it, but you don't build the refridgerator to gain in energy dissipation.
You only build it if you need a refridgerator.

Erez: Are we concerned by heat or energy?

Both. Heat is something you want to dissipate.
If you want a computer that will not explode, you must worry about heat.
Energy is something you have to pay for. It becomes a component of your overall cost.
You can get rid of the heat with a refridgerator, but that is more expensive.

It is possible to buy water cooled computers. Most people don't.
The water cooled provide a bit more performance, but cost more.

So, that is the trend line.
It says, we are being driven, hard, to dealing with heat.

- Can we do useful computation reversibly? The answer is yes.
Can we do useful computation without closing a switch?

Tank circuit.
No more radio amateurs?

Erez: [joking] What is radio?

Tank circuit has a capacitor and a coil.
These will sit there and oscillate
http://www.allaboutcircuits.com/vol_2/chpt_6/2.html

- Logical Reversibility of Compuation
Charles Bennett IBM J. Res. Develop. 17, 525 (1973)

First, compute the result
Second, print it out
Third, \"uncompute\" back to the start,
\"unwriting\" the \"waste bits\"

When you compute forward, you compute lots and lots of things, only a part of which you want.
In the process of \"uncomputing\" you come back to your initial state.
That probably didn't make a whole lot of sense.
How obvious. How brilliant.
A whole bunch of people have moved in and made proposals.
1982 Fredkin & Toffoli Billiard Ball Logic - they compute!
1982 Bennet Brownian Clockwork Turing Machine - slow, but drifts forward
1982 Likharev Parametric Quantron - can be demonstrated using business cards

1985 Seitz Hot Clock nMOS - cut energy dissipation in switching

1987 Drexler Molecular Rod Logic - did not fully exploit, but suggested slightly below kT
but you could back off by factor of 2-3 on performance. You get an irreversible proposal.

1988 Merkle Buckling Logic - in rod logic, things bump/push/pullaway - in buckling logic, just deformations.
no sliding. Merely deformations. Buckling logic computes quite nicely.

1990 Merkle CCD - they exist. No one uses them for computation, but they could be used for competition.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charge-coupled_device

1992 Merkle & Drexler -Helical Logic. I like it. Landauer paised it \"not obviously disasterously bad\"

Fredkin gate
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fredkin_gate
3 inputs 
A goes straight on through. Either 0 or 1.
If A is 0
B and C go through.
If A is 1
B and C are swapped.

It is reversible.
Given A, B, C
You can tell the outputs.
Given the outputs, you can tell the inputs.
It is a good, simple device.

Erez: How is the swap done?

If you implement this in the wrong way, it could dissipate a lot of energy.

Does not HAVE to dissipate energy.

Erez: Will you show us how to implement without dissipation?

Ralph: Yes.
Anything which is logically reversible can be implemented in a low dissipation way -- if you are clever.
You might have to be pretty clever, but you could do it.

Why is a Fredkin gate universal?
Here is a AND gate from a Fredkin gate:

IN OUT
A=0 A=0
B B
0 A and B

A=1 A=1
B 0
0 A and B

So, by making third input 0.

Make inverter. A=1 use B and C as inverter.

You will compute what you want, and get other waste outputs.
Uncompute what you don't want.

JG: What do you mean by running it backwards?

If you erase a bit, you dissipate heat.
If you ...
will have to show some examples.
unwriting and erasing are fundamentally different operations.
Unwriting can be done without use of energy.

- Billiard ball logic
Paper: http://bit.ly/bikJfq
A B 
Fredkin and Toffli
[Conservative Logic paper: http://bit.ly/bikJfq ]

- Switching along two paths
Charges following paths
Even more - confined to a path and confined to some well on the path
Moving them along the path in some fashion.
They reach a point where the data path splits
either there is no packet here (on condidtion path) the data path packet will continue forward
OR if there is a condition path packet, the packets repel one another and the data packet goes out the
branch path.
About the simplest device you can have using charges.
Does this device make sense?

JG: Going forwards. What about backwards?

Four possiblities going forward
0 0
0 1
1 0
1 1
Produces four outputs.

Reversibly - must match one of four inputs states.
If you want this device to go backwards, then you must construct your operation so that when
it runs in reverse direction - it is your responsibility to meet the condition of matching the input.
This is a pain-in-the-ass but simple device.

Why don't I go through a bit more about how you can do these things.

Now in CCDs.
A figure from a standard textbook.
Silicon dioxide.
5 10 and 5 volts.
Will have puddle of electrons under 10 volt electrodes
Now shift to
5 10 12 volts on electrodes
Puddle moves toward 12 volt electrode.
Finally 5 10 15 volts
Get puddle all under 15 volt electrode.

Electrons change.
David: How to reverse?
Change 15 to 12 to 5.
Other thing we can do, keep the electrons here, just make
5 10 15
become
5 5 10

So you can move electrons along a series of CCD - potential wells.
Here is a top view.
Each black thing is a metalization.
Beneath each is silicon dioxide insulator
Beneath that is the doped Silicon
This looks like a track.
Looks like we are moving charge along a track - exactly what we want for a switch gate.
If we are moving charge along, we should be able to have 

I now have two-rail logic.
I have the condition and complement of the logic here.
Now the source moves and splits - either into one of these two tracks
And it splits on whether one of the two packets ...
So the claim is we could implement, oh my, a switch gate through CCD devices.

Problem. They are slow. If you implemented this. It would be slow.
Not many interested.
Entertaining bit of theory.
Someone might dust this off.

JG: How change voltages?

Clocks can be done without dissipating energy.

What is the energy cost of getting the clock circuit running around?
Can be reduced by slowing the speed of the clock.
Asymptotically non-dissipative - IF they are slow.

Application where going slow is good.
Navy drops things in the ocean which listen.
They listen - use batteries.
Listening for enemy behavior - subs / ships / whatever.
Analyze acoustic signals.
If you drop them in the ocean. You want them to listen quietly, do signal processing, and you want
the battery to last a long time.
Not concerned about the speed of operation.
So the Navy, among other people, want long lasting devices. Sip power from battery for years.
Perfectly happy with device which can say, \"Oh a submarine just went by ...\"

Other situations where power is at a premium ... [like mobile phones]

Erez: Is there a 3D model to show correlation between energy / heat / time?

Getting to that. All proposals suggest trade off. But theory does not preclude
fast
low energy
reversible system.
Nothing says these are the best we can do.
I haven't heard a limit which is anywhere near this.

Erez: So the trade off gets better and better?

The trade offs do not seem to be fundamental.

Rob: 10:30.
Ralph: Session goes to 12:30.
Another half hour on this one, then switch over.

- Electric Field.
Electron around in a circle.
Electric field can rotate. Cause electron to go around in circular path.
But change to helical path, then drive electron along.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archimedes'_screw

If you have TWO helical paths, you could drive two electrons.
If you flatten out - you get two paths for switch gate.
Take two and split one of them - one splits - so you have 3 helicies.
You now have a switch gate.

JG: Racetrack technology we saw yesterday. Could two interact to make switch gate?

Ralph: Haven't thought of it.

Fredkin gate from switch gate.
Either all four of the gates switch - suppose A is a 1. A charge packet present on A.
B comes in, follows up to upper route. B is a 1. Guaranteed that this is correct.
Lo and behold, it switches.
So B comes out on C.
Same thing on C.
If you come in, it goes up, goes down. Reverses the process and comes out on B.

What we've just done is implement a Fredkin gate to make a switch gate.
Simply plug in, bump up a level in our abstraction.
Implement, as a low level primitive, our switch gates.
All subsequent implementations can use Fredkin gates.

Make sense? Cool.

Emiliano: Whole point of Fredkin gate?
The switch gate involves the repulsion.
E: wouldn't the rotation of the field dominate the repulsion.
Repulsion would be at right angles.
E: Which is why you say 3D?
Right.

If you think about it, it is this nice 3D structure.
You can build helical logic and it is quite nice.
We actually did it, in the paper, with single electrons.
No wires. 
Circuit is simply immersed in rotating electric field.
Energy dissipation can be very low.
Charge transport is via helical paths.

Switches switch single electron USING a single electron - at 1 K.
Need that to operate.
At room temp, a single electron cannot switch a single electron due to thermal noise.

Reversible. Also the case, if you want some irreversible operations - an electron can come 
in on the wrong branch.
Can, if you want, introduce operations that are irreversible.

JG: Energy use of sensory apparatus versus brain computation?
How much bus versus processor?

Ralph: Yes.

David: If you are going to cool to 1K. Would take a lot of energy.
Wouldn't it be fast anyway?

You could have a very cool computer, but it would still dissipate kT.

David: Huge loss of efficiency to cool to 1K?

Not loss relative to factor of 10,000 in reduced energy use.

Is there some source of dissipation we didn't catch?
Indicates we can go well below anything out there.
Satisfies various constraints. The best one out there.
Whether it gets built or not, we'll see.
This involves a rotating electric field.
It amounts to an oscillating field, in an oscillating chamber.
Clocking can be done with low Q.
Hard to build little helical structures. Until you can build things in 3D.
If you have molecular manufacturing - this is a really juicy carrot you could get.
May ways to get this sooner than the way we described.
Sweet proposal.

Sasha: To reverse it - a timing or reversal of charge.

Rotate field backwards.

Sasha: How small can you get that and still keep physics alive.
How much space do you need to make that viable?

Presumably you'd need the computation - enough data stroage to have umph for it.
Then rotating electric field.

Sasha: If just one way logic function ... two logic equations going back and forth.
One, two, in helical version that would be reversible ...

Reversible logic is fun.
Any standard program can be converted. How many waste bits.

Sasha: Efficiency of space?

Does get to be an issue. Bennett has done some very good work on that.
Various tradeoffs.
Spend more time.
Juggling space time tradeoffs.

Erez: Build via proteins?

Had not thought of it.

Erez: Scientific community looking to build protein folding.

Answer is, don't know. We were thinking solid state with very fine structure.
Can do it with molecular mfg. Maybe semiconductor mfg techniques.

[skipping ... buckling logic ... ehhh]
In last 5 minutes, fundamental limits.

Heat does not appear to be fundamental limit.
We can do some things about heat.

Bekenstein Bound
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bekenstein_bound
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacob_Bekenstein

k is Boltzmann's constant, R is the radius of a sphere that can enclose the given system, Eis the total mass-energy including any rest masses, \u0127 is the reduced Planck constant, and c is the speed of light. 

Looks pretty fundamental.
Involves Planck's constant.
Claim is:
number of bits in a volume of space is 2 Pi times sphere times energy /
Planck's constant times the speed of light times natural log of 2

Pause - announce wonderful equation.
Produces one horrendous number of bits in a volume
2.5 x 10^43 bits.

A whole lot of bits.

- Information of a black hole
JG: You just can't get anything out of it.
Ralph: That was a big argument.
Throw an encyclopedia into a black hole. Does the information get erased?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole_information_paradox

Nolene: k missing?

Delighted you asked that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holographic_principle
JG: Like the story of Flatland where the 2D beings are trying to understand the arrival of a 3D object in their world.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flatland

JG: Possible reason for 4 is analogy with 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere#Surface_area_of_a_sphere

David Wylie:
Rob: We could be living inside a black hole.

Radius of universe: ~ 4.4 x 10^26 m
Surface area: ~ 2.4 x 10^54
Total information content: ~ 1.3 x 10^ ....

11:12 END OF TALK.
Mc^2 / h - max computational density
10^50 bit / s / kg

harold bremerman? [ref]

11:14 Eleanor Rieffel
http://www.fxpal.com/
rieffel@fxpal.com
Slides: http://bit.ly/a9FMLr

- An Overview of Quantum Computing
FXPAL
Looked at quantum computing for over 10 years.

- How fast
One thing people didn't realize - grounded in classical mechanics.
In 1980s, classical model places uncessary limits.
World is inherently quantum mechanical.
It took awhile for things to develop from this key idea.

- Birth
Can we use efficiency to make more general computations faster?
Took awhile to figure out interesting results.

First thing - the physics.
Computer history museum. See Babbages engine - classical, mechanical device.
When we are programming, we don't think about the physics.
We have been able to abstract away and forget how actually implemented.
Maybe faster - using quantum effects.
Maybe need to tie the physics to how we are thinking about computation.
Relatively small group.
How much energy does it take.
Side enterprise.
Just to be clear - what a quantum computer is not.
all computers speed up computation using quantum effects
What matters is how information is encoded and manipulated.
Ralph just showed logic on bits. With classical logic gates.
What quantum computing does is 
change what information is - not bits
how we act on them
Mapping between the two, but quantum version is more general.

I am going to present the abstraction, not the implementation.

I wanted you to know one thing early on.
They ask me \"How big a quantum computer \"
and \"How many bits\"
It is an easy one to give. I just made a lot of switches. I can turn on and off a lot of lights.
But all you can do is switch on lights individually, no interaction?
I'll get into better criteria.

So, most people emphasize the deep practical implications.
Great. There are some.
Emphasize what is really exciting here is 
1/ surprising
2/ exciting
we get hooked.

My company asked me 15 years to look into this.
Will this technology effect profits?
Not in 15, but maybe in 50.
So company said, work for little bit of time.
Studies fundamental limits.
How fast we can compute
What information can we make secure - what kinds of things we can and cannot do.
Applications - 
Physics
Computation
Information Theory
Relations between these

- Quantum information
This talk will not explain math.
I have another talk with that gory detail
Wanted you to know what we know quantum computers can and cannot do.
Give you some of the words, some not explained very much.
I know we are invited to lunch - if you want more math, I have papers. I tend to respond to e-mail.

Bits.
Fundamental unit is a Qubit.
Instead of having 2 states, there is an infinite value of states - complex numbers.
If you know about polarization - one angle it will block. States inbetween it will let through partially.
That angle can be related to those coefficients.
Circular polarization - that's the complex number part.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_polarization

Tensor product. Doesn't show up in classic - usually a direct tensor ...
What's different here is how things are put together.
When you combine particles the possible states you can get do not have classical analogs.
It may not be the efficient way to do it - but in the classic case, you can describe each state.
In quantum states - some are entangled.
Combined - you get a much larger statespace.
Much larger space than in classical bits.
Quantum state space is exponentially larger.

JG: Literally exponential?

Yes.
That sounds exciting, right?
You need to get information out. 
You need to pick a set of states that are othogonal and take information out .
Photo polarization.
You can take a polarization filter and pick angle.
For a single photon, if polarized AT the angle, it will come through.
If orthogonal, it will NOT come through.
If anywhere in between, it has a probability of coming through.
You fundamentally lose ability to make more measurements on that state.
All you can find out is what state a system is NOT in.

JG: Time element?

One thing missing from quantum mechanics discussion is the double slit experiment.
Polarization is different - and different things interfere.
If they take different amounts of time - how do they interfere.
Asked my Physics teacher - how do they interfer if they show up at different times.

A lot more complicated - some uncertainty - how much those packets interact.
Really instructive example to go through.

Rob: Can you repeat the same calculation multiple times?
Yes and no.
So, the big question is.
You started with a particle in that state.
That particle is no longer in that state.
You either need to have another particle that was in exactly the same state.
OR, if you know how to reverse the output into the input state, you can rerun.
Little bit of a problem there.
If you do not know the state of something, you cannot reliably make a copy.
You can make a copy if you know what state it is in.
But, for each set of orthogonal states you need a separate a machine.
Then, if you put the copy machine in for one orientation, you can't copy the others.
No Cloning Theorem.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No-cloning_theorem
Proof is trivial.
Essentially a trivial consequence of linear algebra.
the states combine and add up by linear operators in a linear fashion
could have been proved early on in study of quantum mechanics, 
but it wasn't until people tried questions like this that people realized you couldn't copy these things.
Really fundamental result.

- Quantum algorithms
Shor's - breaks RSA and other cypto systems. In the same paper, he also published the discrete.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA
which stands for Rivest, Shamir and Adleman who first publicly described it

People started worrying that we had found all the algorithms.
Since 2002 - new approaches, but for very specific problems.

People have misconceptions.
If anybody knows about quantum mechanics, they know it is \"really really random\"
but quantum mechanics gives quite tight predictions.
Any computation a classical computer can do, a quantum computer can do with same efficiency.

If you have a classical algorithm implemented in a reversible way, you can immediately
implement in quantum computing way.

Emiliano: Post selection?

We have quantum Fredkin gates. When you run those on classical input, you will get classical output.
If you have a classical algorithm that gives an answer with certainty, the quantum calculation will also have certainty.
Only slow down is going from irreversible to reversible.
Bennett already did that work.

Some quantum algorithms are probablistic and some are not.
First quantum algorithms did things with certainty that classical algorithmic approaches only gave probablistic answers.

While Shor presented his approach as probablistic, others noted it could yield certainty.

Lot of confusion about what Grover's algorithm does and does not do.
His understanding of a database is abstract.

His speed up only applies if you can quickly produce a quantum superposition state.
Usually when you have a database - it does not have a pattern.
I just have to enter each name and phone number.

In Grover, you can search very quickly. But you need to make a measurment at the end.
That destroys the state.
In a large database,
If there is structure to your database - say, binary cuts - faster than brute force check.
Variants have been able to speed up other.
Square root speed up on brute force -
If you don't have a structure and have to check each entry - order N checks
In the quantum case - root N checks
Really exciting, but destroys superposition.
To create it again takes order N - so you lose the efficiency there.
Type where this applies - you can compute something on all the inputs in a systematic manner
And that gives you the 
Np complete problem. - each quicly checkable
And, so it is polynomially checkable.
No no no no yes no no
Then use Grovers' to search that.
Need to be able to generate in a systematic way.

Maybe more interesting - you cannot search an unstructured list faster than square root of N.
Exponential state space = exponential speed up? No.

Emiliano: Space bounds- can do better than O of N. Entanglement take.

This you can think of as taking into account all of those resources.
Or single process.
Does that make sense?
E: Sort of.

Notion of circuit complexity.
When you talk about efficiency here.
Turing machine
Quantum turing machine
Gives one way of bounding these things.

Look at circuit complexity - if you are careful, it maps.
Directly translate some of the gates. You have to be careful.
But in either of these ways you get this bound.
Not an exponential speed up. Only this root N speed up and only for certain problems.

Grover's only helps with unstructured.
Suppose you have ordered list - result: Quantum Computers cannot provide speed up here.
Quantum Computers cannot speed up this sort of search.
Known limits of what quantum computers cannot improve on classic computers.
We expect quantum computers will be more expensive to build
have slower clock speeds.
So better to use classical computers for things.

Can exponential state space reduce the complexity of some problem?
We don't have a proof that we can't do that.
Proof would solve 
P = NP problem.
But we do have NP complete problems - proofs that they do not work.

E: How can you prove different computational models?

There is a quantum class
bQP contains P 
Does bQP ...

E: Which would not prove anything. 

I said it wrong way around:
Any classical polynomial time algo can be made quantum
If you can prove that Np is not in bQP then you know it is not in P.

In fact, one of the researchers who has done a lot of work on these classes.
Scott Aronson - good way of sorting out physical principles.
Probably throw out - have a conservation of energy-like principle.
Useful to have computational laws of physics.
Maybe not quite a quantum world. 
Maybe we need a new field.
Maybe we should be doubtful of a theory that refutes conservation of energy.

- NP-intermediate candidate problems.

So where are people looking for more problems to attack:
Ladner 

Longer list on another slide.

- Impact of Shor's algorithm.
JG: Theoretically broken or practically broken?
No one is using the public key number 15. We have a ways to go.

- Practical importance of public key algorithms

How do you decide something is secure if you don't have a proof that it is secure.

Ralph: People who have built a quantum computer will not tell you they have built one.

- Quantum Information Processing
- Quantum cryptography

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_error_correction

Ralph's first slide had criteria for good computer.
What about good quantum computer?
- DiVincenzo

Donkey Races - Italy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lolQfFMytY

- How to tell if one has built one
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_tomography

- Models of Quantum Computing
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-way_quantum_computer
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adiabatic_quantum_computation

- What if quantum mechanics is wrong?

- The future
Will they be built? Yes.
Will they replace desktop computers? No.

JG:
Luca Turin's theory: that smell results from molecular vibration (more specifically, from electron tunneling)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luca_Turin#Vibration_theory_of_olfaction

Book: 
The Emperor of Scent: A Story of Perfume, Obsession, and the Last Mystery of the Senses by Chandler Burr http://www.amazon.com/Emperor-Scent-Perfume-Obsession-Mystery/dp/0375507973
http://www.physorg.com/news89542035.html
http://www.perfumerflavorist.com/fragrance/research/37572479.html
http://lucaturin.typepad.com/about.html

http://askthewhiffguys.com/research/case-studies/more-on-darpas-realnose-project/

====
Instant Feedback
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"Tues, August 3, 9 am - 12 noon

Desalination, Salt Water Ponds EES/SPS Off site 

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7 Students

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Ownership and Ethics Law & Policy PLE B.20 Conference Room 

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Biotech Offsite Adventure #1: Checking out local biotechnology facilities BB Off site 

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Eric Ezechieli
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"Friday
July 30, 2010 
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Tesla

Aaron Kemmer
Andrew Fursman
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Erika Anderson
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Marko Bitenc
Matthew Kern
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Michael Jensen

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Robertq Denning
Rosa Chan
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34 students

7/30/2010
Friday
7/30/2010
8:18 am
Sanket Amberkar
Smart Grid Marketing
samberka@cisco.com

Looking at global future of energy
Generation
Distribution

Jason: Going to see decentralized energy production.

Agree entirely.
Both generation and management.
Pushing management and intelligence closer and closer.
This is why we are getting into the space.
Self-contained domains. Manage down to a community level.
Rather than pull from hundreds of miles away.
Pass energy to neighbors.
Leveraging a shared infrastructure.

CB: Storage is going to be an enormous issue.
Use intermittent, store and use or distribute.

Do you see at consumer, generation or intermediate.

CB: Permeate through all.
Decentralized movement.

Actually, a very good point.
EPRI - synthesizing the different problems with regard to storage.
Spreading through grid - exactly right.
Due to variation in supply itself.

Taking it up to other extreme - large wind farms, large storage to act as buffer.
Sci Fi - salt, rock / molten. Steam.
Stored much more efficiently - MW. Almost 50MW - generation capacity storage.
Pretty interesting investments.
Japan probably has the largest - NaSd for 48MW storage.

Andrew: Debate- bridging near term deficit to abundance.
Lawrence Livermore. [NIF]
Imagine what we would do differently - a billion times more energy.

What would sources be?

Andrew: E=m c^2 Large centralized force. 10,000x more sunlight than world's usage.
Rather than 5 different processes ..

Fusion is nuclear based. While people are agreeable to nuclear - 

Andrew: That is about Fission.

Bulk of France is highly efficient.
Obama administration sanctioning new plants.

Marko: Small plants - can burn waste.

One thing you didn't mention - leverage energy through ocean waves.
Mapping of coasts, which can capture best.
Fully sustainable source.

Jason: Shouldn't we concerned about taking energy out of Gulf Stream - doesn't that influence climate?

Impact in 1-2 miles of shore. Ecological impact - on fish, movement of fish.
Realizing at the same time - taking such a fractional amount of the power there.
A buoy going up and down - you can leverage that motion.

Eric: Look into efficiency. We are wasting 50-80% of energy.
Go for profitable solutions.
At Google yesterday, 50% of savings are profitable.
Substantial change in the power / economic dynamics.
Millions or billions of energy producers.

Precise reason catching on in US. Once you get the generation - 
Good study by ARC
They have a book called Energy Obesity.
Interesting - to get 1 lightbulb of power, need 4 lightbulbs.

The three processes:
What can you do from an energy efficiency standpoint.
Standard incandescent to efficient bulb
Change what power you consume - peak to night. Charging electric vehicles.
Can you actually alter consumption itself. - Doesn't have to do with grid.

Sasha: Material science. Ambient heat off of transmission.
We could literally be boiling the earth. 
Hopefully being looked at.

Transmission industry is looking at that.
Ohm's Law. Depending on materials, different heat.
Georgetown has interesting research.

Jose: Just let me say. Fantastic blog about Singularity U.
Alexis Ringwald.
alexis.ringwald@valenceenergy.com

Marie Hattar, VP in charge of Borderless Networks.

Routing

Eliminate borders. Bust all the silos. Create better participation.
Very much behind the thinking of SU.
Economic Ideas - Ray Kurzweil spoke and it was very very interesting.
Couple things -OK, I'm going to write a blog on this.
Being in the tech business you look for ways to make money.
At CISCO we truly want to leverage our technologies to make the world a better place
To work, to live, to play
On our badge cards - to really help the world.
This area of energy management.
Be Green
Smart Grid
Save water resources
What Jose pinged me on - holistic energy management strategy.

Home Energy management?

Jose: Home, gen / storage / use. Open to learn about anything.

In terms of universities - had attention span of an ant.
Can make it more Q&A.
X and I are here, can give quick overview.

Jose: Quick overview. Then students can talk.

30 slide presentation in 10 minutes.
I will tell you.

Agenda - different businesses out there.
Cicso Green Vision
Business
Smart Grid
Energy mgmt

Green Market Drivers
Two types - make world better, make money
Cost reductions
Sustainability Mandates
Regulatory compliance: Canada, Germany
Govt Mandates
Corporate Responsibility
Social
Corporate Reputation
Carbon Reduction

All lighting is high efficiency type
Neutral in summer energy use.

Jose: How many kilowatts in your home?

I want to do this, but my husband installed the thing.
Just write the check.
I used to be a power engineer about 30 years ago.
Used to have $120 / month, typically $15. This summer, fed stuff back.

Extending Green Borders
If it can be connected to the network, it can be greener

What can we do? How can we help this?
If it can be connected to the network, we can provide the way to make it greener.
We have intelligence we can gather and provide so the right action can be taken.
If you look at the pain point - provide better video communications.
In the house - give people the control in their house.
Support a different way of working.
Create virtual workspaces, so they don't have to commute so much.

Virtual workspaces
Cloud services
IT Consolidation - instead of x times the power, use less footprint.

Automated Energy mgmt
Video comm
Home energy

- Green Business
Workforce flexibility
Changing the paradigm. Allow everyone to participate
WebX, phone
extend further, to bring more people together. That's where innovation happens 
Cost Savings
Being a for-profit business, we can show bottom line return
Network Efficiency
A lot of customers look for efficiencies in use.

Eric: Typical payback time for efficiencies?

For telepresence - we sold to CEOs.
Number of engagements for traveling CEO quadruples.
Instead of \"wasting\" 8 hours on a plane, you are effective.
How do we make CEO more efficient.
I'm not having to travel, let me look at my travel budget.
Need to set up more in the conference rooms.
Bring down cost of units, so it is much more affordable.
Then it is a choice whether you travel.
This is the year of 3D.
Won't be far off.
Becomes even more real.
Payback in travel is 1 year.

Energy management - EnergyWise. Routers and switches.
Already in place for customers.
Turn on service to turn things on and off.
Public offices - 10,000 PCs. Saved 60% of energy bill.

Eric: Would travel be slashed 90%.

Travel industry is 2% of energy. IT is about 2%.
Easily about 80-90%, a no-brainer.
CEOs sit there and say they are being \"green\" but they take private jets.
Every time one of those takes off, the environmental impact is significant.

Concept of a virtual office. Each and every employee - with router and phone.
they don't have to be tech-savvy at all.
DSL provider just gives an Ethernet connection.
It self configures. 
Call here gets simulated at home.

I was an early trial. I had 2 kids at home.
I'd be called at 8pm.
Boss figured it out eventually.

Seen telepresense technology? 
Jose: 5 have used it.
HD TV is crisp.
Webcam, low quality.
Takes you 2 minutes, \"wow, this is different\"
then it feels like you are literally there.
Not everyone can have that high-end.
We do hove lower grade.
Hope is to bring down that telepresence - rich experience without having to get on plane to have a conversation.

In terms of cost savings, holistic strategy.
Heating/Cooling.
Implement policies.
Partnerships with building suppliers.
Integrate into IP
Turn on/off ports. Lights, OK. What about PCs?
When you start replicating.

Sasha: How about devices not previously connected?

Partnering with people doing translations. We build mediator systems.
Speak to lighting system that can speak from the SCADA system (Smart Grid).
Reach common IP platform.

Sasha: How are information networks handling that?

Early days. Just at the beginning of the iceberg of that.
Customers managing access points, phones. Just putting the policies in.
Over time, with right analytical data - see more up take.
Now it is trial and error.
One place shut down all the phones - but needed a way to call 911.
Not as pervasive as we'd like it to be.

Service virtualization. Not pre-provisioned.
Say you are a service provider, working with a bunch of stores.
Looking for internet access.
Download over the net. Modular. 3 months later store says, I actually want a phone system.
Used to need truck roll to install.
Now they can download, service on demand.
Uninstall - any power draw goes away.

- Cost Savings
ROI calculator
We are not here to sell you this.
It comes for free with what you have bought from us already.
What you can save if you turn it on.
They say, \"wow, thought we'd have to do a capex outlay - but realizing savings just by turning it on.\"
Sometimes they don't know.

- Network Efficiency
Data centers - huge amounts of data to be collected and stored and analyzed.
e-mail saved for 7 years.
So, amount of storage maintained, hence data center buildout. 
Anything we can do to reduce in Data Centers is good for the environment.
Challenge is, any given branch may not be a lot, but so many of them, starts to add up.

- Borderless Networks Innovations
Provide a holistic view.

JG: Vint Cerf - Clouds not talking

Public to public.
Private to private.
Challenge has been security - virtualized.
Who you are, your identity, your location can be communicated.
VMware. 
Virtualization of your compute space.
In a server, you can have virtual machines.
Traversing doesn't happen.
Wireless is issues.

cloud to cloud - lot of points of view.
CISCO perspective- will be 3/4 different implementations.
Everything being a public cloud is unrealistic.
As much focus on private as on public clouds.

Andrew: Typically I think of my router and IP phone.
Is this conceptual work or hardware you are doing?

CISCO's work was routers. Then switching. Since then, that's what they are known for.
Shifting, innovating in a lot of different areas.
Largest security vendor.
About 40% of the market.
We are building for smart grid and virtualization that will enable trust for clouds.
When you are worried about someone else getting your capabilities.
Expanded into wireless - wi-fi, wi-max.
Another piece was communications. Your phone.
WebX
Really changed to collaboration.
Microsoft does a lot of that. So do we.
A workspace that travels with you.
CISCO quad- contacts via voice, e-mail. All on one common platform.

Pack for work: iPhone, PC, 
Please call my cell - surest way to connect

Make it easily transferrable.
Virtualization.
How do we work with certain partners to make it better.
CISCO / CS a tablet going to come out.
An iPad is nice, but some of the interactions -
Apple is consumer oriented.
We looked at business communications -
pushing into virtualization.
Set off smart grid - Lora Ibsen
John Chambers, our CEO - building out communications network.

Andrew: Tie back to specifically what you are doing.

Marie: We are building the highway for the information exchange.

Andrew: Plug legacy transformers into system ...

Marie: Let's talk about existing deployment.

SCADA commands.
Create interface. Do translation from SCADA to IP.
Once it is on IP, can funnel it.

Sanket: 3 simple things:
Thought leadership - explaining the vision. Doing a lot with utilities
What are the business solutions.
What are infrastructure requirements.
What are specific technologies and how they come together.

Marie: Also a lobbying effort. Never underestimate.
US is so behind relative to Europe and Asia.
When Obama was investing so much, provided an injection point.
Like anything new, not without bumps.
PG&E - if outage it assumed. Bill 3x what they expected.
Creates setbacks.
Law passed, \"not interested\"
Fear on the part of some people.
Build capability -work in trials and pilots.
Like any new business, depends on quality.

Jose: CISCO - Sangdo City.
Alexis: Some of the most exciting on building side.
CISCO mediator project. Deployed in Bangalore. Smartest connected building.
HVAC, chillers, most exciting.
On commercial building side.

Marie: It is really impressive.
It senses you walked in the room.
Office changes the persona based on who you are coming into the room.
Gets people excited.
Specifically in terms of the grid.

On home energy management - how do you get there in a way that scales.
Drawer effect - cool for a week, then goes in the drawer.

Q: Interfaces between systems. People talk about the plumber. Advantage strategically.
Now looking at infrastructure, information, mobility - now in the direction of Google / FaceBook
Need toknow more about the customer.
Problem for you to move into that space - nobody cares about infrastructure.

Jose: Jan/Germany.

Marie: Guten tag. You are absolutely right. Evolution for CISCO.
Really wish our CEO would never have talked about it as plumbing. It is really complex.
But, you're right, it does mean better interfaces.
Not just the Google application.
Notice how many video cameras capturing you.
Every elevator.
Never realized how many video cams out there until I took on security.

Jose: We are recording you.

Marie: I'm just a hologram actually. Our latest technology.

Eric: You don't know, but we are you.

Marie: I think that is the challenge and opportunity. Information in so many silos.
We are connecting all that. We have access and knowledge of what is going on with all the pieces.

How do companies approach video?
Microsoft -encrypt at application level.
But, if you believe some is coming out - not clear priority.

Another example. Virtual desktops.
Part of the challenge becomes - they create a tunnel that goes to this device. Great if just data.
Real time video? That's when things break down.
Any real experience without considering the network is when things break down.

Sasha: Smart Grid- fight. Bum fight. Everyone is fighting for a seat at the table.
Whole point is that unlike the internet genesis, things under the radar - something could
be open, dispersed. Not open this time.

Marie: Not an accurate statement. Big protocol battles - AppleTalk, etc.
After awhile things steered to commonality.
Everyone bringing their work to the table. That's how it evolves in general.

Sasha: I was going all the way back to ARPANet.

Marie: That was from defense point of view. Built out with Universities.
Over time - became productized.
If just a government initiative - you can have exchanges.
Once businesses see money, they try to shape every which way.

Sasha: Who has the controlling hand?

Marie: Our strategy varies.
We are working with power manufacturers. Meter vendors.
We bring knowledge and capability found only in some other small start ups.
Not that many players
Rugged.com - don't have scale or capability to influence this.
Everybody says, \"great idea\" but then 10-15 year implementation.
People looking to get rich quick.

Sanket: Very similar to internet.
2 years ago - wild, wild west. Very proprietary.
Been articulate - where Vint was going - internet capabilities, no vision for commercial leveraging.
Smart grid is how to leverage.
Not just betterment of mankind, but for gain.
Needs to be in open standards way.
IP is the best way to make that happen.
That has helped a lot to bring together an ecosystem.
We have partnerships in 5 key areas.
ABB has bought in.
They need to work with the likes of us.
Be controlled by systems.
Second, complementary - sensing available. Control mechanisms.
Partnerships in technology devices.
Another huge - home device. End user plays with it.
Part of our strategy - look for places to put technology out for end user.
Final thing, work closely with those doing service providers.
and integration side.
IBM, Accenture.
http://www.accenture.com/
If put ecosystem together, 45 partners. Really shape market.

Marie: Highlighted ARPAnet - really took off when it went public.
Didn't have e-mail like at the university.
It took about 6 years before I had the same kind of workplace communication.
Bell Northern Research.
Epitome, back then, of an R&D company.
What you find at universities is a lot more leading edge.
Hockey stick before it takes off.
Over next 2-3 years, hope to see that.
A lot of people grabbing for this.
A lot of money at stake.
Thank you for the opportunity - wonderful initiative with SU.
Jose: For my next blog.
Marie: You are triggering me to write about this.
Jose: IQ average 170
Marie: Thank you so much.
9:55 [applause]

Sanket: will spend more time going into Smart Grid.
Ourselves, partners, ..

Power Generators
Transmission Operators
Distribution Operators
Retailers & Service Providers
End consumers

Already had a presence on generator side.
Bringing onto IP.
Home is very very new - only 3 weeks new in terms of our making it public.
Retailers - must understand how market works.
People can agree what happens on first three.
People agree on consumers.
Solution wise - people agree.
One in the middle is most interesting one to solve.
We foresee the Smart Grid will change how the industry operates.

Who owns the information? Who can use that information? 
Third party aggregators.
Will be managed by smart grid.
Don't generate electricity - will play role in managing.
Will have contracts with utility company - won't exceed demand on utility side.
Will have contracts on business side - I will put capabilities inhouse for you to
reduce bill by x%. Say you have $50,000 bill. I will give you a check for $25,000 and you give
a share of the savings.
Business is happy.
This intermediary - like Enron - playing energy market on supply side.
If you can play on the pricing of power - it is more lucrative than currency trading.
Everyone trading had no control.
Enron had some supply control.
You can make a hedge - 
if that's not a monopoly, I don't know what is.
Will require partnerships.
Utility will ask, why should somebody else make money off something I should be able to do?
[because you are regulated out of that business]

- Cisco Smart Grid Solutions
6 different things, only 1 touches the house.

High Reliability and Security

No investment in 1-5.
Operations Center
Data Center
Utility and Regional network
Transmission and Substation network
Field Area Network

Premise Area (HAN/BAN)
Home ..
Building/Business ...

- Tying it all together
Device I'm going to show you is similar to iPad.
Can control home devices. Big appliances, such as you dryer. Your pool pump.
Can control smaller ones too.
Smart plug -
Similar to a power strip - but wi-fi enabled. Control each socket, turn on/off.
Can buy that today.
Control things on/off.
One of the things you have today is parasitic loss.
\"Keep alive power\"
Phantom power.
Those are things you can monitor how much is being pulled through that socket.
What you can do with that information - you can decide how much
is being consumed by your dryer - decide how to modulate.
Google - through cloud - in totality.
Gives you visibility.
No knobs to control it.
Here you have knobs. Create policy. Set thermostat - when to consume.

Andrew: Met with Dan Reicher - iGoogle interface there.
On open standards.
Do you have ways to connect with Energy Aware?
Or future stage? APIs?

What you are talking about is in this cloud.
We are offering, not just device, but cloud as well.

Andrew: I'm familiar with CISCO's \"own it if you can\"
like CISCO's SIP system.
But works best with ours.

These are all open standards. We are not first into the space.
Tie in where not tied in before.
Yes you can do things with monitoring - view through portals.
Control it off your phone.
Can read, but visibility is only so good.
When away you can control
Home automation has been there for 20 years.
Making it more economical.
Go to market has always been directly to consumer.

Bill: Do you compete with Tendril Networks - one of the people who would use your
services.

I smile because, it could be.

Bill: Other piece.

CISCO cannot partner with every person out there.
We are picking which to partner with to complement.
Then see potential overlaps.

Bill: No real benefit for the energy companies.

Talking about off grid.
Utilities are putting most money in.

Even if you never had utility grid, could you have cost saving?
You don't have to do whole thing all at once.
You can do just in this space alone.
You can still, from a selling to end consumer model, for those who want to be green.

Value is when you control in the cloud.

Andrew: Zigby standard.

Was competing against IP.
We are in Zigby alliance now. Pushing for 2.0.
New appliances ...

Andrew: Will just support your.

We want standardization - interoperability.
Helps anybody else.
Reduces eventual cost to customer.
More collective solution.

Jose: 10 minutes.
Eric: 
Steve: Before you started initiative to standardize, who else?

We're not only ones.
US has NIST.
They have as part of SGIP - multiple sections there.
NERC 
We are one of many
Gridwise - from IBM.
IEEE standards.
IEC - more international. Utility side.
IETF ...
whole bunch of different bodies.
We influence standards.

Eric: SU is all about exponential technologies, change.
What is your perception in the old industry, for example, grid partiy with PV.
May happen this decade. Understanding of these dynamics.

Three things happening to disrupt. Understanding in industry.
Accutely aware of 
- regulatory policy- driving a lot of change, on security, extremely heavy fines
if not in compliance with N??7
Requires them to do physical and cyber security.
- everyone realizes demand is exponentially exceeding supply
World Bank, int'l energy comm. Curve for last 10 year increasing,
Next 5 years will exceed.
Countries which were semi-industrialized ...
Developed countries not reducing
China just exceed US
Expected to double in next 5 years.
No way you can build enough capacity to meet that demand.
Don't think of it as constraint.
That is a big driver for efficency - how effectively to reach end user.
How to conserve.
Renewables - everyone want to go there. Denmark at 40% already.
Europe 2020 20%.

Kauser: Academic. Partnered with labs?

We do have partnerships. Talent you have. Very well defined, specific projects.

In smart grid, we've only been there for a year.
Had relationship with Secretary Chu before he was Secretary of Energy.

Songdo - smart work with different cities.
CISCO open development.
Bring things together.
How to have sustainable communities. Greener footprint.
We have several smart cities - partnerships in SF
Cities they have out there - Dubai. 
Intention out there - energy,
transportation,
how govt operates - how they share information.

Jose: Masdar.

Not complete.

Al: Got campus. Really neat.
Jose: Songdo will be much better.

Every iteration lets you learn.

You'll see other technologies relating to sustainability.
A lot on community side.
How the gov't can interact with citizens themselves.
How you interact with your government. 
People have migrated to cell phones - so why shouldn't government use those.
Experiments.
Songdo will be a living experiment.

Home Energy reduced 4 to 15%.

10:28 picture
10:36 Bus departs for Tesla
energy-aware.com

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jun26-The-Art-of-Visualization-by-Tom-Wujeck
"Tom Wujeck
The Art of Visualization
26 June 2010
9:16 AM
583C

Peter Skillman - invented the Marshmallow Game
World record 42.5\"
Peter: 39.5\"
Salim: 37.75\" 
Peter: That is really good.
Salim: Designed entire line of Palm products. 
Great talk on simplicity versus complexity.
To kick off today Tom Wujeck. Very good friend of SU.
Did sketches you saw.

Tom: Growing by leaps and bounds.
Next time 160 ...
in 10 years entire planet.
Thinking and innovation. How teams think better.
How do we collaborate much more effectively.
I'm going to share a collection of visualization practices.
Turning ideas into pictures.
Second thing I'd like to talk about is digital tools.
Growth of digital technology.
Grab bag of digital technologies - working with directly, or indirectly.

Two primary questions. 
What encourages people to think better?
[What fosters innovative thinking?]
Really important for us today.
Second thing, what fosters technology innovation.
SU = Exponential University.
Many technologies.
2 minutes of things I do [video with VERY high production value
animation of things in CAD, games, cars, water/surfing, architecture, office design,
more gaming,
special effects,
CAD again,
\"AutoDesk\"]
[applause]
I work for a large software company called AutoDesk. 2.5 bn company.
We'll come up to AutoDesk gallery and see fruits of our customers' work.
Will visit, hear from Pittman.
6-10 m users of AutoCAD. 
Together, they create the built world. The photoshop of the built world.
Plants and factories.
Consumer products - from palm devices, running shoes.
Every car in the world used our technology.
Except LADA (a Russian car).
Used for wide range of things, including making Avatar (movie).

How people create. Next running shoes, automobiles, ...
Role over last 10 years has been to study process.
How people use and think with technology.

Today's talk - almost NOTHING to do with technology.
Human imagination not growing at the same rate.
Tangible and persistent visualizations.

With that guy ( ) leading growth strategy.
Introducing new technologies to AutoDesk.
Visual Collaboration
Using Images to Create, Develop and Sell Ideas.

Ever have moment where you see something and it changes the way you think?

Met Jim. Like a Monty Python character. He stops, thinks, then carries on.
I've got a present for you. ... a box of detergent.
Take home to Toronto. Usually memory keys, t-shirts.
A week later wife says, \"This is the most amazing detergent\"
Ultimate green detergent. Delivered in pills. Just toss in. Pre-measures.
Box folds to nothing, recyclable. Brilliant.

Asked Jim. How did you come up with this idea?
New method. Built on new method where we shunk development process
from 8 months to 2 weeks.
Coordinate our thinking around 3 diagrams.

Design Table
First diagram was this: [drawing. Stop sign. Octagon.
Each represents a place for the 8 stakeholders.
Legal
...
Each gets a sticky note.
You'd think this is obvious.
People would say, \"I didn't know that was important to you.\"
More important issue -> sticky note in center

More important something is, closer to center.
Line of sight diagram.

Design Pyramid
Second is design pyramid.
Top is Vision or intangible.
Bottom is tangible part.

Design Journey
Really important
Over time most organizations track evolution of product
Vision -> design -> etc.
Quality that is tracked that begins with the letter U
Starts low, gets higher, then back down - like climbing a mountain.
What do you think U stands for?
[ubiquitous]
[uncertainty]
Understanding?
-> Unhappiness \x3c-
Idea is really simple. You start moderately unhappy.
As you try to do something new, you become more uncomfortable.
Something new, of value, follows some inventive process.
Get to some breakthrough moment when people say, \"OH, that's what we are doing!\"

Climbing Anapura. Ski down other side.
Gives team a common vocabulary of where they are.
Gives them permission to feel like shit.
What many organizations do by trying to reduce tension - doing what was done before
Using old, previously winning formula to do something new.
OR, they burrow through. No discovery of where they are going.
Generally, Yeah, that's what we do.
The higher you go - they tolerate ambiguity, thrive on uncertainty. -- Nike
Pixar. Every single picture, they go through this curve.
Crisis of story goes through this. You have an idea about script. The old guy in UP you stop empathizing with him.
The go through improv exercise.

See all work. See top vision. See what it actually feels like.
Shrunk from 8 mos to 2 wks.
Run a couple hundred of these visualizations.
[time lapse photography of group gathering and drawing]
Drawing, rather than talking, changes everything.
When you change the way people communicate or represent information, it changes everything.
This animation was strategy for $300 m bueinss.

Integrated project devlivery.
We've really expanded, made strategy visable. 
Visualization is this really interesting method to make sense of ideas.
Rollins idea - 8 days of business practices.
Encourage you to learn more about this..

Why do we do this?
COLLABORATION
To help People play at the top of their skills and top of integrity.
Students play 
Work is more complicated, complex, interconnect and faster than ever before.

You are going to see a lot of curves that look like this:
[exponential growth]
technology,
information - doubling every ...two years
scientific, publishing
business information - 
Corporate data doubles every 10 months.
Science and nature doubles every 6 months.
Human brain doubles every 160,000 years.
All these things are changing. 
Human brain does not progress as quickly. We need better techniques.

Build new products, solutions to meet challenges of the world.
Innovation defined as:
New
Useful
Inventive
Also true of Hippo roller - transport more water more safely with less effort.
Giant wheel you can pull or push.

Problem most teams face are elements of this:
Lengthy Development Times: takes too long
Lack of Team Coordination: not pointing in right direction - different ideas
people afraid to speak their mind - don't want to feel stupid.
Lack of insight into what customer wants
Don't have way to measure it.
Boston Consulting.
What companies say they do is detailed analysis
What they ACTUALLY do is lots of PowerPoint.
50 million PP a day.
Favorite was analyst -- defense analyst out of Bethesda, MD (near D.C.)
In what ways can we make our family unit more effective,
delivered to two teeenage daughters. Ended in tears.

Lack of clarity. People don't know what you mean. Or not crisp yet.
Who is your customer. What does your customer look like?
What does he/she do at 2 pm.
visualization helps you to get clear.
\"The problem with most managers is that they do the first damned thing that pops into their mind.\"
Unbelievable collaboration - put ideas into pictures.

First part. Thinking digital: a really powerful and important part is design and visual thinking.
Ideas and information, anything relevant into something visual. Purpose of getting deep engagement. So they say AHA.

Anyone? Anyone?
[List of African countries. Map of Africa - which country is missing?] Libya

\"The problem with most managers is that they do the first damned thing that pops into their mind.\"

So, this is a fairly rich infographic with about 20 nodes.
Limit of about 15 nodes before we have to put in the effort.

Example: Strategic Plan.
National Semiconductor.
Decided to have vision exercise. 35 page report. 17 languages.
Less than 5% of people who read it could say what vision of company was.
As visual, 90% could tell.
Taking one form of data and putting it into another form changes everything.

Vis-sonification.
[bleeps are earthquakes]
See waves propagate over planet.
You are hearing height of waves as they wash over places.
That took 6 hours to go across the planet.
Now, representation of devastation. [red areas along costs]

Showed in Norway. Room was just completely silent.
MC had to leave for an hour or so. He had been in Sri Lanka.
You just saw animation. pictures.
It engages in a way that words can't.
We don't take advantage of this in business or in the way we do our work.
We can get deeply, deeply involved using visual images.
Folks that are the marketeers of the world can do this.

Asked Nike: what is your mental model of the design process.
Millions of running shoes.
Here is is drawing A mandala. Like a clock face.
Shoe in the center. At 12 o'clock. Who is this for. Draw picture of them.
What innovations, IP can you bring.
What problem - chaffing, burning or ...
the Brazilian team - each of 9 cleets has own design
What are the perceptual advantages. Flocks of birds, schools of fish
Same markings on boots.
Used to train, so they can see on the fields. Let's them behave like a flock.
If they can perceive themselves as a team - competitive advantage.

Going around the clock, like line of sight diagram.
not only that, so many companies do this -- I only have some permissions to show this.
Who is your customer?
Here is \"Matt\" and what he thinks about.
Magazines he reads
What he listens to
His room
Targetted segmented audience.
Here is \"Brent\"
For $20 he would buy Jamba Juice
For $50 he would buy CDs
What he wants to be: Real Estate Investor ( I bet that has changed)
This is what is in \"Allie's\" closet. And what she'd like to have.

Make it visible.
Make it persistent.
How are we going to satisfy this demographic?
Have them \"there\" in the room

Visualization: Merchandising Strategy
Augmented by technology as well.
Speadsheet of basketball shoes. First 20 of 1720 different basketball shoes.
Total of 87 fields.
Made mistake of printing it out - 4 reams.
So we took exactly same data and put it in multitouch display.
Huge amount of data - changes conversation, so stuff people have to do
goes from 3.5weeks to 2 days.
Lots of complexity. Shoe that hasn't been built is gray. 
This was built in a week and a half.
Rate being built is pretty insane.
All about figuring out what problem you are trying to solve.

Where is is going now - visualize more and more abstract content.
Some available freely and online. Will go into this next time I come back.

Heat in building before it is actually built.
Now, cars are crash tested 6-700,000 times digitally.
Visualization means different things.
Has been co-opted.
Another version goes something like this:
[video \"Getting Everything you Want (with no effort) everything I touch turns to gold]
Let's be clear, this is NOT what I mean by visualization.

The Secret
Popular book, movie, website - claim is if you form clear mental picture, universe will bring it to you.
If you don't go for run, no amount of imagining yourself thin will get you thin.
Salim: A speaking agency published that book?
Yes, the command $40-60K for this [crap]
So, the fundamental belief of thaf of that - form picture, universe will create natural resonance and attract through \"law of attraction\"
With clear picture, you can work together more efficiently and avoid elbows.
Places in room to clarify different lens.
Orientation
Vision
Strategic Intent
Goals
DifferntiationActio

How can we sparate ourself from competitors
Whos going to do what and when
Who owns what 

What do we believe
How do you measure this- what is the action.
I will share some content with you throughout.

10:05
Let's bring sticky notes and take the darkest pen you have available.
Here's the first exercise. #1 
Don't talk for next 3 minutes. Write down elements of a successful, hot, great, team.
What are elements you would like to see?
Clear vision?
Lot of energy?
Stick on the wall.

Three teams at front. Rest sit down.
Silence please.
This is where it gets out of control ...
When you are trying to shape and idea. They come from different places.

Watch really closely. Watch REALLY closely. The dynamics, the unspoken part of collaboration we don't pay attention to.
We do it every single day.
Do a clustering exercise - put together if similar ideas. 3 on vision - put them together.

Here is the thing that is different.
Anyone can move.
Keep moving until you are done.
No talking.

Watch, GO. Shhhhh

When you are done, everyone sit down except one person who will give a tour.
10:19
[Team 1/2 has 6-7 distinct clusters. Team 3 seems to have progression -maybe 4/5 clusters]
Now tell story like for a 6th grade class.
Mike: It is very important to be eager to fail. Sense you can do anything.
Act quickly. 
Same time, when you do your thinking, Out of box, open to change. Make ideas breakthrough barriers.
Believe you need to be passionate and have a great time.
Visualization and creative intelligence can help you with that.
Focus on success
Take in context.
Power from multiple disciplines, expertise.
To make it work: communication tools, good group dynamics.
Good knowledge and understading

Success at the center.
Know what you don't know.

2/
Diverse people.
Using clear rules
Leadership
Shared big vision with passion
Willing to take risks, do whatever
While having fun

Shared vision at center
Humor and fun \"down there\"

3/
Not in order
First one is inclusion listening patience. Collaborative thinking
Passion, unique approach, creativity
Vision, sharing common goal
Communication, knowing one another, respecting each other's opinion
Focus on solution and end goal
Team diversity expertise

Visual
Less talk, more action.

NOW put your curatorial hat on . Most obvious: what is pattern of sticky notes.
What is energy of team splashed out.
Team 3 - what do you see heere? a fish? a dragon?
[A snake, a dolphin, an eye with a tear drop ...
If these were liquid.
[Crocodile 
Wow, interesting. Really. Wow.

Re: 2
Skyscraper
Tetris
Car
Two wheels
Rally different. Geometric. Buildings and boxes
Gut response very different.

Re 1:
[Village, forrest, crowd, island
Is this valuable?
This is just the starting point. This goes realy deep and reall yfar. Watching body language. Did teams all work together.

[This team, worked together. This one some left behind.
I though t the same.
More than 6-8 it is hard. By nature, it has to fracture.

[Team 1 would split, rejoin.
That is a common thing to do.
Workshop for Electronic ARts. 3 different teams.
Doing game design.
Patterns were different. Rectiliniear - always delivered on time, on budget, but the games sucked.
Second team had dragon - their exercise had circular shape, lot of flair, dynamics, but something missing inside ti.
Thrid had created person - running - thinking, passion (you can gues where [laugh])
$3 b brand. Really hot. Kept making same pattern even after pointed out.

How you do something is how you do everything.
Pay attention to the patterns that you have. How you do it percolates into everything.

Come on up.
If we disagree - and I move,
You move back.
I move futher. 
Notes stack up.
We don't even have to talk to each other.
Accept or build.
Yes AND.
Unbelievably obvious. Real step of collaboration.
In the work, offer to build artifact. A sketch. Someone goes Yes AND. or whole range of other emotional responses.
John Ricatolo. #1 problem in game design, creative work. Lack of clarity before rushing into the heat of production
Also head of GM design
Head of Pixar
So easy to start building stuff, but lack of clarity is the challenge we have.

[moving notes from group 3 to show overhead]
Q: 
Complicated thing. People only want incremental changes to established brands.
That's a challenge.

Q: Less room to work - Alison
Suggesting, implications, rather .... physicality of it is enormous.

So much more I wanted to show and talk.
Am I off at 10:30?
10:34
Salim: 20 minutes.

Six Fundamental Lenses of Work

It seems to me, to be really clear. I will give you copies of this content.
Half dozen lens.
About a dozen areas of questions - areas people get unclear on.
Places to get clear:
Discover & Frame: - lens of framing and discovery.
What is going on in your world. This is what SU is about.
Trends and forces.
Where are you going?
What do you want to do?
Clarify who your customers are. Emotional needs.
Vision and Purpose
What experience are you trying to get them to have.
What makes you unique.
Process and Structure
What are specific.
Culture and Interaction - beliefs and values, rules by which success happens
How dows team work together.
Make clear beliefs, values
If someone says Humor is really important, but their idea of humor is different from others, your rules of how you get there are different.

Track and Measure - how well are you actually working together
How well is the work progressing
World that is changing faster than ever before.
This program is fantastics - 10 weeks.
Will leave behind a clarity toolkit. (Still in beta) Make this open source
It shows a bunch of visual language - 3 day workshop. The topology, various types of represnetations. How do you take adanatage of these. The next breakthrough we have.
Easily taught. So I'm not going to go through this right now.

Just ... [skipping through slide]
going to switch gears now.
Totally.
Talk about technology.
Have whetted your appetite.
Emerging
Solving tough problems of the world.
Will help you visualize your products.
A great approach.

Technology.
Moore's law - every 18 month technology doubles and the price is halved. ONe example of many.
Exponential curve. Ray K is leader in this.
What you are going to be doing is tracking 20 of these?
Majority moving up on this curve.
Implication, in some years time, stuff changes very quickly and profoundly.
Multi-touch - unknown 4 years ago - now expected.
World is going to change really quickly
Part of your job is to anticipate that and get to the forefront.
Take advantage the way others, less savvy, won't.
The world of \"impossible\" not thought feasible.
THe world of impractical
The world of Possible
The world of Expected - you are going to fail without this technology, Leonardo da Vinci and the airplane
The world of Required - when it is taught at undergrad level

Aircraft.
Technology at AutoDesk has gone through this technology.
This program is SketchPad. Brought SketchBook to market some years ago. 1.8 million downloads.
Required at schools.
Sweet spot, where you are now

Timing is everything.
10:44
What is required changes over time.
Going to show you a couple of these things.
Some you will see, others you won't.
[Video of seat design]
3D modeling. Different programs parse the design:
Surface model
Marketeer can try different leather treatments.
Another flavor - EE
Synthesis is huge and enormous
Driving manufacturing growth
Looking at wireframe here.
Enormous competitive advantage
Q: Question about cars?
Takes 18 months to design.

This is video game technology. Runing off XBox, sort of. Real time.
Select type/design of car before it is built.

MACKEVISOIN
Running shoe manufacturer - not make in china, but made in rapid prototyping machine.
Manf productivity is growing at this huge rate. Many arent also
A critcism - what is growing exponentiall an dwhat not.
Much of the world is NOT growing exponentially.
Mystery Industry - not going up. Not newpaers
It is the $3 trillion architecture, engineering and construction- not growing.
Cost over runs, litigation. 1 of 3 dollars spent is waste.
Why?
Totally on the record.
Wrong slide - about prototyping - made by 23 yr old student who wanted job.
Went instead to Industrial Light andMagic.

So the reason industry is dropping - legal constraints and lack of collaboration.
Common shared vision - when you reach it, everyone wins.
Legal mess.
World of analog to digital.
Capture real physical world into digital representation
Analyze
LADAR like radar, but using light
Take 3D snapshot, then travel around it.
Looks like video game.
To change building to make it more sustainable, would need to understand current properties. Analysis can take a long time.
By digitally capturing it, it is possible to get snapshot and geometric extraction, seek technology, to find out what model number of windows were used.

James Cameron scanned massive complexes. Now kindo f expensive.
Will demo with iPhone - stitched together into 3D model
Price performance (exponential gesture) and everything changes.

3D printers See at AutoDesk gallery. Print 3D models. Take some hours.
6 materials together from one machine.

Imagine a store. Have you rfoot scanned. Kiosk, select shoe or design your own.
What kind of breathing.
License IP.
Go.
Get your Latte.
14-17 minutes, machine produces the shoe
Way it does is take threads, out of nozzle.
Blow using puffs of air, causes thread to tie itsellf, woven in 3 dimensional space.
3 1/2 years old. Looks like 

If you are tweeting this, do not use the word N*
Personal customization.
Impractical going into practical, will then be required.
Cars
Chairs
laptops
Growth curve?
I just wnat you to say this is just another lens.

ONe of your co-students is doing voice stuff. Power is where you can handle it.
Mobile technologies - huge
Augmented reality you have today is crap. Where it is going is amazing.
Infomatics of people you are confronting - uber-scary.
Sketches of SU.
A service to help make sense.
Tool we take back to make sense of our strategy.
What is posible, practical and wehre should we invest.

Will be back to help you visualize.
These technologies are amazing.
all now going to expected and required.

Where are you going to put your marker? I think you are here:
[pointer to Possible] - Thinking Digital
[lots of applause]

Salim: we can listen to Tom all day. We often have.
5 min break.
Will explain instructions.
Scrolling thing - canadian flag - when canada won olympic gold, flag got baked in.
Blurry stuff before it, then YES.

Pay really close attention, then draw/draw/draw. will hang for another couple of hours.

Salim: For the unconference. Do people not know what it is?
We are going to talk through this. Running a little late. Planning session grid.
2 slots right way. 4 in afternoon. 5 after dinner.
Create connectedness amoungst the group.
You have bonded as a group almost instantly.
We are trying to keep pace with youl
Intros in this room.
Tom: I'm still on Itlaian time.
Salim: 30 second intros. Ropes course. As quickly as possible, create relatedness.
If you do several different methods, you get 3D visualization. Common understanding.
Accomplish - who you each are. Some sense. Give a bit more intellectual lens.
Where do different people's expertise lie.
Give you and example from last time. Exec Program. ONly 9 days. Create context = speed dataing.
8 1/2 x 11. 3 topics. Metaphysics / 2 / 3
Kite surfing / 2 /4
People formed groups. 3 minutes to ask about one of those topics.
Did not work with 45 poepls.
More time to create deep context this summer. More in depth.

Anyone can talk
15 min talk, 10 questions.
5 parallel talks.
Not required.
Can move between rooms.
If people are moving, don't take it the wrong way.
Grid of rooms.
We give yo ua sticky papre.
Write in big letters.
Each person wil say what talk is about an dput on grid.
Note taker.
Ether pad per room
Timekeeping wil be strict.
Where and when grid.

RULES:
1/ The people who come are the best people who could have come
2/ Whatever happs is the only thing that could have happened
3/ It starts when it starts
4/ It is over when it is over
5/ The Law of Two Feet

O'Reilly FooCamp. 150 Friends of O'Reilly. 
FooBar - lost of hands
F* up beyond all recognition.
Needed 6 characters for computer testing. So it has 2 \"o\"s

Barcamp 
Chris Messina
A bunch of people choose a venue.
People sponsor food.
session like this - rich in conversation
Very temporal
Like a sand painting
If you are not learning or contributing, go to a different room.

Everybody grab a big sticky note.

what fosters innovative thinking?

what fosters technology innovation?

autodesk tom.. marshmellow..

DESIGN TABLE....
A PLACE FOR EACH OF THE STAKEHOLDERS

DESIGN PYRAMID --> THE VISION THAT BRINGS EVERYTHING TOGETHER

VISION, INTANGIBLE. EACH SIDE REPRESENTS EACH PERSONS VIEW....

LACK OF CLARITY IS THE CHALLENGE THAT WE HAVE....

TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION

TECHNOLOGY POSSIBILITY

POSSIBLE... WANTED.... 

DESIGN JOURNEY....
EACH OF THESE ELEMENTS WITH TIME... TEAM UNDERSTANDING.... 
UNHAPPINESS

|
|
|
| 
|
|--------------------------------

DESIGN 2020....

COLLABORATION...
WORK IS MORE COMPLEX INTERCONNECTED AND FASTER

10 months corporate info
6 months nature..

NEW 
USEFUL
INVENTIVE

LENGTHY DEVELOPMENT TIME
LACK OF TEAM COORDINATION
CULTURE OF RISK AVERSION
POOR IDEA SELECTION

50 MILLION PRESENTATION CREATED PER DAY
WHAT COMPANIES REALLY DO IT SAY BLEH BLEH BLEH WE WILL WIN
MARKET ANALYSIS

LACK CLARITY IN COLLABORATION....

THE PROBLEM WITH MOST MANAGERS IS THAT THEY DO THE FIRST THING THAT POPS IN THEIR MIND.
PUT IDEAS INTO PICTURES

THE FUTURE IS...

VISUAL COLLABORATION

VISUALIZING FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE...

VISUALIZING STRATEGIC PLAN..

WHAT PERCENT OF EMPLOYEES KNOW YOUR STRATEGIC VISION?? IF NOT CREATE A CREATIVE PICTURE BASED VISION...

VISUALIZING A MARKETING STRATEGY.... MULTIDEMENSIONAL VISUALIZATION OF DATA CONTENT

VISUALIZATION STRATEGY....

ORIENTATION
VISION
STRATEGIC INTENT
GOALS
DIFFERENTIATION
ACTION

WHAT IS OUR CULTURE, OUR VALUES...

$68 TRILLION TOTAL GLOBAL ECONOMY
$3 TRILLION IS WASTE

LIDAR ... SIMILAR TO RADAR

THREADS ARE ABLE TO BE SOWN IN A THREE DIMENSIONAL WAY INTO S SHOE BY NIKE

FOO --- FOOBAR

THE LAW OF TWO FEET... FIND ANOTHER ROOM IF YOU HAVEN'T 

[end of session]

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Aug3-Financing-the-Future
"Tuesday
8/3/2010
Evening at Kicklabs

Chris:
chris@kicklabs.com
Love to talk with you.
Phenomenal group.
Just shoot me an e-mail.
Great panel tonight.

7:25 [applause]
David Rose:
So we have assembled for you an all star line up.
Financing the Future and the future of financing.
How do I get this Singularity U stuff financed.
If Singularity focused company,
what do we look for.
Exponentially changing technology.

Second part, in terms of financing
in the context of the singularity -
as opposed to 5-10 years ago when you didn't have
that accelerating change.
Second part, what is the future of finance.
where is finance going?
Same VCs and angels.
Will one die and the other take over.
No need for banks?
All challenge competitions.
Lot of time for questions.
Hit them with hard questions.
Extra points for stumping the panel.

Context to judge the pearls or horsepucky.
I'm an entrepreneur.
Started half dozen
Started tech company, fell backward into finance company.
restarted, became big
Only thing that could stop us was the end of the world ... which came.
Now running Angelsoft http://angelsoft.net/ - backend infrastructure.
80 companies from Peter D's space stuff
To Lima Peru.
Mumbai India.
Love Singularity challenges.
Try to stretch my little dollar into really cool things of the future.

Eghosa Omoigui:
Everybody knows me as Eghosa.
Was will Intel capital.
Actually started off being a lawyer.
Morphed into the startup world.
Then VC legal practice.
Then joined Intel, doing portfolio management.
Did 30 liquidity events.
Moved on from that to Chief of Staff of Intel Treasury.
Managed all Intel's cash.
Then Chief of Staff of Intel Capital
On the order of $3-500 m in VC around the world.
Intel is extremely aggressive.
My focus was on mobile.
Search
AI
Semantic web
Machine learning
Variety of investments.
In US and outside.
Have 3 investments in India.
One in Japan.
Last closing this month - very excited about that one.
Betaworks. Will talk in financing.
Idea and startup incubator / new media company.
Sense networks.
Mobile[?] town.

Michael Downing:
With Transmedia Capital
Representing dual worlds.
Created 2, 2-1/2 years ago
Been in on-line tech for 16 years.
Founded 6
Took 1 public
All who started out in this early stage pitching investors.
Focused on consumer applications.
Traditional media content and distribution.
Seed stage, very very early stage. Chris partner.
We have perspective that very early stage with on-line media.
We are operators. 
We have a certain kind of advantage. 
Put small amounts to work.
Help teams hands on.
That's what Transmedia is all about.
We focus in that on-line media space - first cash in not credit card money of founders.
Business model, approach to market where we can help the company.

Dean of VC 2.0 
Rob Hayes:
Nice chuckle out of that.
Fred Wilson,
First Round Capital was \"Grand-daddy\"
My oldest child is 10.
I started on product side, building system software.
OS for mobile devices.
Did that for 10 years.
Moved over to become investor
Various roles in SF office
We invest early. Like to be first institutional money.
2 guys and a dog.
Sometimes they don't have a dog.
Relatively small checks. Half a million.
Syndicates.
Fairly unique.
Offices in Philadelphia, here, ..
So that's why in SF, NY.
Four partners and another four investment professionals.
Active - 24 investments.
this year the same.

Active in early days of company.
We really differentiate the value add.
When company has 2 guys and a dog.
Marketing helps.
5 marketing professionals and an ad agency - not so helpful.

We are on our second fund.
Many companies in portfolio.
Continue to be active.

Jump into first topic.

David: Topic 1 part 1.
Given extraordinary pace of technological change.
Studying for 10 weeks.

Rob:
Any plan today will be absolutely wrong.
Technologies moving so quickly - light speed.
When I invest in a team, by the time they get 
6-12 months out. Their ability to shift with that change is key.
Where we are today is in a place where it is silly to invest in a plan.
Obsolete faster than the words can get on the pages.

Michael:
World has changed.
How has this business changed.
One really big change when I look at opportunities.
Back in the 1990s, just 12-14 years ago, there were more hard core
major scientific guys required to be able to believe that company could execute.
Over last 10 years - massive democratization.
Used to need unbelievably sophisticated guys, or likelihood was nada.
Today, open source tools, certain opportunities.
None of them have more than 3-4 years, yet believable they can execute.
this whole paradigm of what is possible, required of team.
How sophisticated. How much science you need.
Democratization of technology - a big change.
Very technology specific.
For those not in technology, might not be relevant.

Eghosa: 
Get a lot of insights from reading far and wide.
Passion for military doctrine's
Marshall - survive contact with the enemy
Survive FIRST contact with the enemy.
As an investor, meeting very smart teams with big visions and rough idea of how to get there.
I spend lot of time on my own thinking across two vectors:
What unmet needs still exist
What sorts of undiscovered needs are possible.
Most importantly - then what?
If you have a lot of mobile devices, then what?
Mobile broadband everywhere, then what?
Mode of attack.
At Intel - ESP = Eghosa Science Projects.
Most have very very basic endpoints.
When I look at a team - explain in 5-10 seconds.
Why important.
Who important to.
Why someone is going to pay money.
Not in the business - as investors - we are in the business of making positive returns
on the monies we invest.
Not constrained by fact that folks have done it before and failed.
Different answer when context changes.
One company, been around for a couple years. Saw proliferation of mobile devices as goose to their revenues.
Their idea started to work.

David: 
Whole singularity change -without question, biggest thing that has 
happened in my lifetime. You have as good or better a handle what is happening.
That is why you are here.
I believe that every single thing under everything is changing.
Change is happening so much and so fast.
Treadmill is running faster than I can.

General Lafayette put down drink.
I'm their leader, so I have to get ahead of mob.

This is now survival mode.
Space stuff from Dan and Peter.
Merkle
Human enhancement
Everything so fast - nothing applies any more.
I try to look at this world and keep up with it.
Every part of the world.
As an investor, happening so fast, so steep.
If I invest to make money, I have to have exit.
So historically, look for hole in the market. Growing hole. Address hole.
But now, that paradigm - the hole is gone. Another hole over here.
Holes won't be here tomorrow.
Very imperfectly - project forward.
FREE
Web 2.0
Wikinomics
Deep changes to society
Try to figure out where it is going.
Then what?
Where will hole be in 5 years?
If I wait until that hole appears, I'll be too late.
So, what - if you play the hand backwards.
Barney Pell[?] search company 5-7 years ago based on unlimited computing power.
Exponential trend.
Availability of resources unavailable.
Things he was doing made a lot of sense, Microsoft bought them.

Michael: Really good point.
Big concepts prior to this point - come on scene and disrupt.
One of the really important concepts - 
even 10 years ago, whatever concept / model
have 10 million people within 18 months - impossible
When you start to realize how socially connected,
real time networks.
How unbelievably connected we all are.
Transportation concept.
We are all so connected in dynamic ways, completely changes your likelihood
of having an unbelievable number of people find out about it.

How quickly can you create a standardized concept.

David: comic books. Reaching major audience. Catalog collections. Platform to backend
dealers. Web information. Get to digital comic books.
Put fingers where ever it goes.
Guys working nights and weekends.
Technology hit.
Got website in.
Then iPhone - has app store
Comic book news
Pool lists.
Send to dealer.
Apple allowed in-store purchases.
Comixology. http://www.comixology.com/
Download comic book on iPhone.
Guided view. Panel by panel.
Purchase a comic book within thing.
Went to Marvel. You've got it. Build us a store.
Then DC.
Then 3rd and 4th.
Then iPad came out. Accelerating.
Full page - things take off.

Apple wants to show off.
Marvel puts in iPad launch. Marvel comics shipped.
3 guys without - shipped 6 million comic books downloaded.
When we invested - didn't happen.
They now are appreciable part of comic book sales.

Moving on to topic #2. 
Idea for business .. future focused business.
Mind boggling - far fetched. 
Desktop nano factories.
If you buy the idea of paradigm shift.
Takes a long time, and lots of money.
How to get future technology funded today?

Rob: 
So a little - you have to understand 10 year horizons.
No one wants to wait 10 years.
A lot less than that.
If it will take over 10 years to come to fruition.
you are not going to go traditional VC route.
Find other sources - folks who have real passion and a lot of money.
Those guys tend to run Google. And things like that.
Break into smaller pieces. Hit 20 year vision. Do something that creates 
some business- return for investors.
Break into pieces. Would not tell investors your grand master plan.
They'd worry you are not focused on short term goal.
For these things that take a lot of capital and time, find non-traditional sources.

Michael:
When you are talking about large concepts, transform a market / sector.
May take time. One point - my personal opinion - very very few plans or proposals
that are these big mega $5 - $10 b company. Not that many of them.
Not every VC group - may require $100 m 
There are a lot who do.
Swing for the fences.
Change the transportation or energy sector forever.
Huge model long term.
Being able to package a vision - how things are done.
Total game changer. Invest a ton of money to do that.
Second thing I would say: Others would disagree
For concepts you are working on - game changer - sector adjusting
Potentially disruptive - value in disruption.
Value in going into sector.
Not clear how you will be worth $200 m.
But a shit-storm
Threaten incumbents.
VCs will back you if you can create lot of questions, change the way things are done in that sector.

On-line music. MP3 files. No clear path to making money.
What this meant.
Tapping into something people wanted. Consumer demand.
Caused a little bit of a revolution
Two different points. 
Big vision has value.
Disruption has value.

Rob:
Not a VC on the planet that doesn't value disruption.
Challenge is, if you disrupt - take 5 years, I want to talk to you.
If 10 years, I don't know of a traditional fund that has that horizon.
VC funds do not have beyond 5 year.

David: Jingle networks.

Rob: 
Looking at 411. $8 billion industry.
Used to ask for City. SF. I want Kicklabs. Would give phone number and address. Charge $2.
Jingle - 1-800-free-411. Play ad before giving number.
Take 6% of market for 411 calls.
Huge huge disruption. Took only 18 months.
VCs definitely look for disruption.
If you are looking at time travel, takes a different kind of investor.

David: Tell us about Intel. Core of venture investing. You kept Eghosa Science Projects.

Eghosa:
Original premise of question.
As a founder, technology inventor. Absolutely incumbent on you - architect and roadmap for development.
Almost infinite number of sources for financing.
Bucket your lab / development sources.
Biotech.
I never did this. I used to marvel at intestinal fortitude - 8 year horizon.
If you hit it really big - drug delivery, diagnostics.
You went through 40 foot containers of Maalox. http://www.maaloxus.com/index.shtml
Smart whiteboard. PC connected. Transferred to hard drive. 1993 Intel invested. Stuck with company.
Big vision.
Extended platform for computing.
$660 m IPO. Spectacular return. Intel saw the long term vision.
Match sources with the timeline.
Whether NSF grant.
Pool from DOE.
VC's won't wait 15 years.

David:
Ultimate, globalized super-duper elite school of finance.
Entirely new state of the art school.
What instructional technology to use.
Smart boards - 1993.
If school for the future - giving a singularity world.
Entire wall - retinal display.
65 megapixel.
7.1 sound.
It changes.
Kind of things that can be done are amazing.
If it took 17 years to get from smart-boards to IPO.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Board
Would we invest in 10 megapixel ...
Intel already did: Perceptive Pixels.
All want Mission Impossible.

David: Minority Report.
That was done several years ago with view you will interact with the video itself.

David: I was the first to see, before TED. Gave term sheet. Came out of NYU.
Could develop on his own - low enough dollars.
Get VCs in without angels.

Eghosa: Intel's view is always the long run view.
Intel has mfg facilities - 32 nm.
Hair 1000 nm
10 years ago, $8-10 bn
Now $4-6 bn.
Intel taking out factories coming on in 15.
When playing with a calendar like that.
They are not thinking tomorrow.
Next gen servers for 2013/14 were locked in December.

Think very broadly.
companies as funding sourcing.
Outsourced R&D.
Keep things - see overall ecosystem.
Intel does spectacular job of that.

Very, very interesting.
Garage, backward stuff.
They don't give you very much, couple hundred thousand dollars.
As inventors and the like,
I've never done clean tech. Lack intestinal fortitude to write $300 m check without
seeing output.

Fundamentally, can't get too far away from economics 101.
Got to keep economics in mind.
Lot of activity in clean tech.
People getting exciting.
That's interesting - but not substitutional.
Cannot be just marginally better. must be exponentially better.
No matter what you say about paradigm shifts.
How does economics actually matter.
That will drive pace, rapidity.

David: Economics is key.
But be very careful.
It has to make sense. You don't have to make money tomorrow.
If you can show this thing that is 100x but it may take $25 m.
Marginal change?
Will not work if it does not swing the needle.

Charter Cities - what is economic sustainability.

Last topic.
Given changes in technology.
Where is finance going?
VC - 20% returns per year. should take over the world.
All funds from 2000 underwater.
Rob. Not just VC.

Rob:
So, you'll see where it used to be 1000 flowers. 1 m now. Lots of little opportunities.
Smaller investors globally. Get involved globally.
Scale hurts some traditional vehicles.
The way it works - take X. invest it. Get X +
Getting hard and harder to do that.

In Venture arena. Every time a bell rings a new seed fund gets started.
When I first opened first Round Capital - explained.
Got pat on head. \"So cute what you are doing.\"
5 years on, everybody is starting a seed fund.
Project that out in all kinds of different areas.
If IPO market comes back, won't come back the way it did.
Play out over an dover again.
Take small amounts of money- turn into multiples - not HUGE, but still high delta.
$10s of m to $100s of m will make investors happy.
Not to say we are not going to fund $1 b.
Every cycle (3 years) less than 10.
You have 400 funds vying for those 10.
OR you are going to find a way to make money.
How do you make money in this industry?
5% of funds that get into multi b co.
Michael:
Key trend -plays to your favor. Decentralization - how people get funded.
Perhaps 120 VC groups. Now tons of early stage - doing $100K $300K left and right.
Fundamental building blocks.
10 years ago - technology used to cost $2 m.
Same building blocks costs $0.

On-demand social network.
You have theme, concept. Millions can find out about it in one week.
Tools of building this business.
Distribution of capital.
Lots more options.
Need less money.
Large corporations - Intel -and others. Traditional incumbents have realized
Only way to remain relevant - outsource - retool fabric of own corporation.
Pharma is built on that.
Media is approaching change that way.
For you, there are a lot of choices.
From Apex, http://www.apexvc.com/ 
Kleiner to small seed funds.
http://www.kpcb.com/

Strategic investors.
Family offices - VCs.
Hedge funds - if you want to deal with them.
Your options are getting better - competition is increasing.
We're screwed and you are in good shape.
Eghosa:
Couple of view points.
As Rob mentioned, after Lehman's bankruptcy.
People who were throwing money around - they were not returning e-mails.
They were gone.
My portfolio down 80%. Can't do this stuff.
My challenge - investing cycle - is fundamentally a cycle.
Always have a frenzy. Lot of folks throwing money.
If a down turn, you won't see brake lights - they are gone.
Incredible diversification in terms of funding sources - action pointing to innovation.
Cos getting started.
When cycle turns - 
Seen in public markets.
Disgorged unexciting cos.
IPO is completely poor. $80 m in rev not sexy. Not FaceBook. All waiting for FaceBook.
Risk on private side that folks disappear.
Future of finance - while it feels great - model for risk. A lot could disappear.
Existing landscape is in for illusion.
Not every company is going to need $1 m.
Some need larger infusions - biotech will cost more.
Genomics- electron microscope - $1.3 m.
Two key points:
make sure you distribute risk, funding sources.
think long term. Shown capacity to invest through ups and downs.

First Round did good job last year. Everyone gone.
Last year - stomp on throttle. 
Investing - steady as she goes.
Intel builds in downturns. When upside comes -stomp and you are gone.
Those cycles are becoming more and more compressed.
Much more rapidly. 5-6-7 years.
With that in mind - as you are planning. keep that.
Might be funding into cycle.
Be careful
In environment with frenzy - it is easy to get caught up in emotion, ego.
At club - girl is hot - until lights come on you realize she is not that hot.
Model for steps and stages. Don't price early investment at such a high point so
next point - lose some sources because they want to value you lower.

Take it as a staircase. Be pragmatic. Cycles becoming slower.

David: 
Bookend Rob.
Buy de-atomization of finance.
Have placed very heavy bet on that topic.
I have that vision - 6 years ago.
Build into hole.
In financing hat - financed myself.
I did that.
Rob pointed out -first seed.
We are the official seed - 150 on platform.
500 angel groups in 60 countries.
20,000 investors.
That, we think, hope, pray, is just the start.
Decentralization of capital.
Intel will play with big numbers, long term.
Entrepreneurs from 35 countries.
What percent are entrepreneurs? Who can be effective?
Try to play the SU handout - 
a lot of finance money made as intermediary. Make inefficient market more efficient.
Nanosecond trading - role of trader changes.
guy who rang bell - no live person on floor.
Tech enabled platform - paid to be in middle lessens.
First Round - great business.
in 2, 4, years - $50,000 
$5,000 on credit card.
Traditional VC - explosion of seed funds. 
Individuals investing. 
Then what?
400 funds out there.
Organize - say 1 m and 1000 seed funds.
Everyone understands 
Linked In
SecondFund
Near perfect information.
Invest $500 bucks - put money on someone at SU back in Nigeria. 
Bet bet -with 10 other people - start something out.
Totally peer to peer world.
Some are investors.
No idea - crowd source - Shirkey crowd sourced design.
Significant changes in next decade.

Questions:
Hop to it.

Alex: 6 m downloads -how many free? 

Majority.
Real revenues. Profitable now.

Bill: Death of institutional capital. Can't invest past a certain percent.
Just fully distributed market. More purely individualized model.

Eghosa: Raised discussion with LPs.
Let's take the folks - why do you rob banks, because that is where the money is.
Large LPs - how architected. Lot not very personnel heavy. 
Put slugs of $200 m.
Don't have personnel.

Michael: more cutting up slugs.

Eghosa: More companies than funds.

Rob: Like it or not, some get big.
Not full atomization. You'll still see $100 m funds.
Totally out of equilibrium. Larger funds not needed in market.
That dis-equilibrium is trying to achieve equilibrium with seed funds.
$500 m funds raising $200 m.
8 partner funds become 3 partner funds.
Will have less of larger funds.

Twitter started - off balance sheet.
Has raised 10s of M today.
There will continue to be companies like that.

David: VCs will move upstream.
We've seen this movement absolutely.
Now - get started so cheaply.
Seminal fund -small amounts of cash where gone far.

Eghosa: Europe left later stage dead.
http://www.eban.org/

Intel has 25 investment professionals.

David: typical Intel deal.
$100k to $300 m
David: Big range.
Systemic change or cyclical?

Eghosa: Angels disappear and reappear.
Real Estate - greed finds its level.
Like water. You have these kind of shifts.
For angels 

Rob: 
Shift that has happened is in IT.
Permanent change. Product to market over weekend - IF you need the credit card.
they don't need $300 m investments.
Cynical view - a lot of folks moving into clean tech.
Reality - big ass checks.
you have $500 m check. $20 m checks. Gives you 10 year grace period - all the while collecting fees.

Shifts will happen in each market.
SJP: Translating question - as VCs. Manage risk. Embrace exponential change.
What advice to experimenting with new synth bio? Not widely known? Will be pitched.

Michael: High concept. Big. Not seen as possible/profitable before.

One concept -even if experimental area. Not proven out. Largely - vision is important.
Articulate vision in solid ways.
Only other thing - if very conceptual level - if any way to break it down into 
one small representative of it working. Soup to nuts, this model working.
Here it is in a little glass aquarium. Pretty soon powering city. Can be very powerful.

Eghosa: 1992 
My brother a doctor. Pain.
Likes to write.
Wrote Nigerian national anthem.
In '92, trying to figure out how to develop method for measuring oxygen carrying capacity of blood non-invasively.
Starts fiddling. Took him 8-9 years. Got patents.
Now traditional. Back then, very random - far out.
As I watched him go through that process - not taking prior NOs. 
Man who would not take No for an answer.
Few months ago, met entrepreneur - talk to me for science.
Figured out how to non-invasively measure glucose.
Read widely about non-invasive. Tons of dead bodies- didn't work OR existing $1 /day
was so big a market that no one wanted new technology to work.
Guy says, I've figure this out.
Within 6-7 months, gets an offer from well known player.
Nice offer. Don't have to work again for the rest of your life.
Said, I wouldn't take offer. So disruptive to high margin market to day - ship you to some outpost
No phone. No internet. Keep working on it.
You are going to disrupt the market. Superb outcome.
Key thing - belief, passion, and true desire to change.
He understood the disruption
Found high friction process, impacted a lot of people. 
Because high friction - could not export to no income countries.
Put in small device. Excited - company that bought his company out of left field.
Only 7 years to become overnight success.
Only see the exit.
Got paid. 
Wherever you stand, sit.
From where you are in the middle of this class - runways can be especially long.
Tell people this - I would do this job I for free.

David: you will find investor who will finance it.

Chances are you will do it for free.

Rob:
Really practical advice.
Restaurant deal.
You'll never make money. You get to go. Take friends. Chef sits at your table.
Feels good. you have passion about. You know it is never going to make money.

Sythn bio. Very special capital. Need a lot of it.
There are people that will invest.
Go to TED.
Sit in the room with a dozen or two dozen billionaires. See who is watching with
rapt attention. People will fund. want to be associated with it.
Or a 20 year cycle.
There are those sources of capital.
They will not be on Sandhill Road.

Look for Andy Grove.

Juan/Spain: We at SU - willingness to solve some of biggest problems in the world.
Thing is - those problems remain unsolved because big corporations
1000s of social entrepreneurs don't have money / scale.
Would you envision company buying brand value / social value - 
VC industry for social entrepreneurs.

David: On Thursday.
Very strong feelings.
Be very very careful.
Either for profit, or not. No middle ground.
Not a question of corporations investing. That is a contribution.
Too far from our thinking.
For profit - goal is financial return.
Is what they pay to put lights in tents buying them social -> marketing value.
Not confused with investments - money in, money back.
Not investment.

Michael:
Philosophically. When it comes to businesses that deliver on clean water.
concept of that business being self-sustaining - an absolute must. Profitable.
Won't last otherwise.

Second thing in your favor - world where they get funded? Everything about distribution, leverage
within world of financing. That bodes very well for these models.
Only 120 co who decide who gets over $1 m in funding. Not altruism.
When large distributed group that has connection to subSaharan africa - then different.
What happens when 100 m people can write small checks.
Re-aggregation - via Angelsoft http://angelsoft.net/ - disparate groups may be more driven to invest in models than anybody else.
Future looks good for those models that don't fit in profit mold.

David: Uninsured in Peru. Lima. to columbia bus school.
Viable plan. Service uninsured with western style = affordable medicine.
Appropriate, but economically sustainable.
Good enough venture pitch.
I like serving the underserved.
Will make $1 b.
Foundation did not give grant, invested beside me.
All to make money that can solve societal need. And make a profit.
Michael is right on target.
Commercial - economic investment- ultimately re-aggregate.

Eghosa\" Cal the not-for-profit. Non-profit. Still may be run as a well executed business.
Fundamentally, these technologies have cost some one somewhere some money to develop.
Margin.

$867 billion off shore in NASDAQ 100 cos.
Can't repatriate.

Erez: Prize arbitrage.
David: ?
Erez: $10 million prize. Fund entrant at $1 m.
David:Prizes leverage.
Challenge competitions just 
Challengepost
http://www.challengepost.com/
A dozen out there.
crowd sourcing model
http://www.challengepost.com/

Eghosa: Gates foundation - 
Pet peeve. How badly some non-profits run.
Gates foundation - real leader. Structures.

Michael:
Kicklabs - cost of creating is lower.
Open source
Ability to access.
What becomes very important
Key component in mix - advisory - help, shepherd, mentor
Increase likelihood of success.
Swarm in late 90s. Didn't go particularly well.
The way businesses built in tech - 
very positive on it. Number of fantastic cos here.
Around other companies.

Rob: 
I think they are great.
Wave of incubators - or accelerators.
Share power, internet desks.
Now about mentoring young teams. Surround with how to become companies.
Helps me. They have already graduated from the don't know shit to they know something.

how to hire, fire, market. All the aspects of business.
Get crash course of that - way more experience.

David: First Round incubator walk.

Rob:
Group in NY. Walked from one to another.

David: I run an incubator as well. Hit half a dozen incubators.
Shook hands. Got elevator pitches. More chat - office hours on the street.
In NY, incubator - rocket on its tail.

Rob hit nail on head. Incubators have very bad name. Real estate - people went to die.
Just wait.
Lost a lot of money.
Crash wiped that out.
Univ. incubators closing down.
All this exponential tech. YCombinator http://ycombinator.com/
- non-incubator incubator.
Physical place.
Enough money for 3 months - heavy duty mentoring - like SU.
Introduce to VCs. Remarkably successful. Virally that spread.
2 dozen.
Launchbox http://www.launchboxdigital.com/
Betaworks http://betaworks.com/
Simultaneous meeting tonight at plug and play.

Accelerators not incubators.
sui generis
Mentoring, not resource sharing
All economic - it is the people thing.

One more.

Q: Discussion. social responsibility in business model?

Eghosa: I did a little research into that from venture perspective.

David: Save the planet. Ben & Jerry's.
Why corporately? No, not because cause makes world a better place - all marketing now.
Legit marketing expense.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Aug4-Gary-Reiner
"Special Presentation:The Importance of Technology Progress to The Macro Economy and to Large Enterprises (Gary Reiner)
When
Wed Aug 4 7:30pm \u2013 Wed Aug 4 9pm
Where
B583c
Created By
emeline@singularityu.org for SU Academic Calendar
Description
The general theme of the talk will be how progress in technology is essential to the health of the global macro economy and large enterprises. The talk will also touch on how large enterprises view near term technology opportunities and some thoughts on what it takes to lead a large enterprise successfully.

Biography:
General Electric is the world's second largest company. Gary Reiner, CIO and Senior Vice President of General Electric through 2010, led GE's digitization drive and move to Cloud Computing services. He implemented the largest Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) deployment to manage GE's 55 billion dollar supply chain (500,000 suppliers in over 100 countries) in GE's Global Procurement Group. He had worked for GE for nearly 20 years, where he has been responsible for evaluating new business ideas and acquisitions, strategic planning, company-wide sourcing and driving best practices throughout the business. 

Big companies come up with new capabilities

Best at delivering service.
When someone places an order, be faster and better.
That is what differentiates.

Toyota versus rest of auto companies.
That is what differentiates.

Bill: Brand identity?

No, a capability.
Low tech example.
Building furniture for offices was a total commodity.
Herman Miller
Steelcase
Hawthorne

So, Herman Miller, when they got an order,
time it took from when placed to when shipped was 49 hours.
Is that good?

: Yeah.

So, they brought in Toyota.
They said, you could get this down to a half hour.
Instead of 122 workers per line.
You'll have 22 per line.
Took them 8 years.
Got down to 15 minutes.
Return on capital went up to 83% vs 15%.
Stock price was 4x Steelcase's.
Strategic capability - not an idea.
When you run companies that become big companies.
Think capability.

[two Herman Miller case studies:
http://wwwqa.hermanmiller.com/hm/content/news/Corporate_Backgrounder.pdf
http://www.lean.org/admin/km/documents/07EADBDF-A03A-4B27-AAEC-03C614B610B0-LEI%20Herman%20Miller%20Success%20Story2_final%20%284%29.pdf]

Herman Miller. What do you need in order to do that?

: Get good at standardizing.
: Identifying what drives value.

How, if you are running a company, what strategic capability 
would you focus on.

: Learning. Getting better.

That is really insightful. Herman Miller. Parts of GE.
Utterly focused on learning.
They call it creating a culture of idea generation and implementation.
Toyota tracks it.
Avg employee generates 100 ideas per year to learn from and beat the competition.

How do you create that culture?

: Pay more.

Everybody who has tried that has failed.

: Proposal.
: I would say, use the ideas. Show people you are listening.

Exactly right.
Compare to US companies.
Every Toyota worker - bias was to listening to and using.
No union
Enormous 

GM - union.
culture was adversarial.
They were being \"managed\" instead of listened to.
Nummi plant.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NUMMI
GM ran up until 1979. 40% absentee rate.
Negative productivity.
Very very unprofitable.
Toyota was looking for way to penetrate US.
Went to GM and said, you've got to let us in.
Toyota put their management team in Nummi.
Started listening. Absentee rate to 2%.
Plant became profitable by midpoint of next decade.
Idea of listening to employees.

: give employees ownership in terms of implementation.

Absolutely right.

: Building a vision together with all the employees.
Shared values you work toward collectively.

Herman Miller.
W 
Bouncing off levels of management.

They new they were in a fight for their lives.
If they couldn't win, outsource to Mexico.
We are at 49 hours today.
We have got to get to 30 min.
Much better customer service.
Grow, have more jobs.
(keep jobs)
Communicate well and often: this is our capability.

Second thing.
That's great capability - identify and be really loud about why it is important.

Most people think you've got to go to manufacturing to get this done.
Any problem solved by working together.

No way to go from 49 hours to 30 min.
More standard chairs. In mfg, sourcing, Human Resources.
Once all the functions in the room together,
your degrees of freedom go up.
Most companies say: Bill - your job is to do that.

Ken's genius - order to ship as strategic capability.
What criteria would you choose.

Salim: Utility
Tough one, because it is regulated.
Probably the speed with which you can get a price regulation done with a regulator. [smile] Seriously, how can you down and up a generator so it matches user base.

Toyota one: ask ... I don't want anything on the floor.
This color, this option - how long to get it too you.

: Make in Japan or here.

30 days.
Going to 12 days.
What will they do? 5 days.
When they get to 5 days - 
then don't need dealerships.
Stop holding inventory.
Storefronts change dynamics.
Economics of selling a Toyota car - you don't have to invest in stock!
Competitive advantage -

What are the criteria for picking strategic advantage they have to be great at?

Sasha: Sustainable.
Ken: bottleneck - 

What is facing the customer. Save time for customer.

: Operations

Make things more efficient for operations.

Key is to find both - better for customer and for your operations.

When a utility needs to do scheduled maintenance for a gas turbine, replace, return to service?

25 days.

How much does each day cost?

$1 m per day.
So, what do you do if you are GE.
Invest like crazy to go from 25 to 15 days.
But again, things that cut across the customer economics and drive your own economics.

What does this mean for entrepreneurial opportunities? Same need to do this? If so, on what processes?

Steve: Each has predictable path.
Actually question for you. Map out the blue ocean, red sea.
Where there is less competition.

Starts with the project definition. Pick water. If we need a way to desalinate water, you are by definition going up against people trying to do it.
Starts with what question you are asking.

Steve: So, how do we find the question

Best way - spend time with customers.
Find bottlenecks.

You've got to give me a space.
Steve: Waste - recycle. Waste Management does what they do.
Companies don't necessarily want to share what their wastes are.

Someone said that.

Sasha: Toyota had an improved process.
Tip their hand.

They invited, many many times.
They knew they could never copy their culture.

Ken: What was the advantage in doing that.

Other partnerships going on.
Totally convinced the car companies could not copy them.

What is the process you'd want to be much better at?

: Adaptation.

Product development process. What makes for a great product development process? Intel? Great product companies?

: Market research.

Tom was talking this morning - get out.
Incredible time deciding what to build - invite consumers in.
Want 3 prototypes - seat / dash
Have consumers try the different configurations.
Based on what consumers say they like - 
very visceral approach.
Not statistical approach.

Brad T: Something that meshes badly with the way big companies think.

Heavy, heavy iteration during product definition phase.
Is this what you said?
Iterating a ton during development phase.

Brad T: Something even customers don't understand.
Big companies don't understand why you are there.

I'm talking about how to develop product quickly and well.
For that you want to iterate as much as possible.
Get from them, make sure it is right.
Now you know it is right, what do you need to make sure you do?

: Hire right people
: systematize it

Who is involved in the development process?

: Everybody.
Only 4-5 people.

What if you are producing something?
Engineers.
What is the problem with that?

: Stopping there.

If you can't make it, you don't make it.

Traits of a good leader?

: Good listener
: Source of unity
: Get full potential out of team members

How do you do that?

How do you want them to feel?

: Enthused.

Recognized, appreciated.

In dot.com, where did we lose key players and keep key players
Stock
Options
Promotions
Informal recognition - 
What do you think drove it?
Kind of gave it away.
Only thing: informal recognition.

One leader, reserved 9-11 every Friday morning.
That's where he used those 2 hours to thank various people
who did something that week.
Changed culture with just that.

Most of us assume most of the people who work for us
Yet, we can all remember the times our bosses recognized us.
It is a really, really big deal.
Another thing?

Sasha: Love to know - makes a choice and commits to it.
Knowing where that leader is headed.

Great, great point Sasha.
6 sigma commitment. Lot of work.
Annual get together of top 600 people, Jack Welch said,
with regard to 6 sigma - you don't have to lead it, love it, you just won't work at GE.
It was crystal clear what we were going to do.
It worked quite beautifully.

: 

Absolutely.
One of the things that struck me. They seek conflict.
Bad leaders fear conflict.
Great leader either : you two sort it out - or we three.
Worst thing as a leader - let things fester.
Get resolution

What else?

Brad T: Need confidence in own position. Don't play political games.

OK.
Let's ... I guess one other thing.
Best leaders I have seen are tremendous at not taking credit for stuff.
Make heros of everyone but themselves - become the most successful people.

So, let's talk about the world.
Helleva decade.
Bring it back to what you guys are working on.
Look at amount of debt.
Way more now.
Up until 2008, what really happened was that consumers and businesses were taking on more debt than they should have
because their assets were going up.
One country where it didn't happen?

: China.
: Canada.

Salim: No one wants to live there [smile]
Brad T: You can't deduct your mortgage interest.
If you can't pay back your mortgage, you go personally bankrupt.
As a result, no subprime.
6 big banks all remained quite healthy.

So, what happened.
governments levered up to protect citizens.
Transfer of debt from individuals and businesses to governments.

If you project out the amount of debt - the deficits over the next 5 years.
Anyone have a number?
$18 T.

GDP then? 
: $15 T.
So, what's that ratio?
120%.

Anyone know Greece's ratio today? 120%.
So, what are our choices?

: Move to Canada.
: Money leaving US from sending money home.

Won't have same multiplier effect.
: Huge amount. Nation of immigrants. Long period impact?

What are we, as a society going to have to do?

Brad T: Stop voting for politicians who bribe us with our children's money.

Create more wealth.

Only one way.

: Create new technologies.

What does technology do?

Brad T: Increases productivity?

What is productivity?
Output per input.

Only way to tell if we have too much debt is to know what productivity is going to be.
If it goes to 5% we don't have debt problem.
If it is 2 or less, we have an enormous problem.
If it goes to 5%, we can increase tax revenues.

Will we have a technology / productivity explosion.
Has such consequences for health of the economy.

Sasha: Nature of wealth - tends to come at cost of traditional labor.

You are dead on.
Sasha: What do you do with the people.

What are the jobs? I have asked that question of 1000 people.
HEALTHCARE
We all need the human touch.
What are the jobs going to be with 5,6,7% productivity.
Mismatch between skills needed and skills we have.
We have a lot of people trained to do mfg jobs
where mfg is going to be a lot less important.

Today in mfg. Subtractive. 
Take metal. Machine it. Make a part.
Right now - you have seen 3D, laser printing.
Other ways that are Additive.
5 years from now - commercial
10 years commonplace.
Will create enormous wealth - 
People who know how to design those materials.

Sasha: Layer on another question. More media into IT space.
Media. Entertainment. Result of moving - massive deflation.

Analog dollars, digital dimes.

S: As we see more industries move onto this IT platform.
What do we do with the people?

Identical to mfg challenge.
When you automate what people do ...
Things will cost less.
People will have to figure out next generation of jobs.

: To compound that, even those in the field - can't learn fast enough.
Singularities of world - textbook - those writing them - outdated.

JG: So it is education that needs to change.

What happens when you automate education?

JG: We're working on it.

I know Kasparov.
He is saying productivity coming from technology is slowing down.

: Given advancements of last decade, there were so many.

Given promises.
Map genome - solve disease. We haven't solved one.

: We presumed. It has resulted in other steps.

Hasn't yielded. 
Robot. Some so far.
I'm not saying it won't. I believe it will.

Bill: Kiva is pretty good.

Roomba, clean your carpet.
http://bit.ly/9isvUS

David A: Reshaping across education - information shapers.

The answer to all this is education.
We just need to be smarter.
More focused on technology as a source.

David A: Always.

Education doesn't stop. World keeps changing.
If you don't keep being educated, you are out.

JG: Isn't that what is going on in a Toyota factory?

Yes, exactly right. But we need it everywhere.

: 

What you can do to improve yourself.
Go on limb here. Health care debate.
Cleveland Clinic.
Focus on being healthy.
Wellness.
Don't get sick.
What percent of patients would not be in hospital if they lived healthy lifestyles?

60%.
That was on a Wednesday last September.
Then, that night, Obama made health care reform pitch.
Not one word about taking better care of ourselves.
If those people took better care of themselves, we could 
cut health care expenses by 60%.

: Continuing education..

If your specialty remains relevant.

You can be safe - if you study robotic technology - you will be safe.

: Incapable of learning something else.

If I were king, deliver message: you need to be responsible for
knowing how the world is changing and to be prepared for it.
Rest of world needs to understand that.

: How would you.

constant.

: End of day - 4,5 bn need to keep up pace
Very small number can teach them.
On-line, AI?

On-line, has to be.

Maybe I'm missing it. On-line/automated same.

: Teacher in Bangalore ...

On-line.

David A: Teachers become facilitators.

: Teachers within company

GE did that. Talk about future of nano.
Big deal.

What else.

Bryce: I agree with everything you are saying about continuous, asynchronous, self-paced. The reason why the \"education is so important\" - education is something we know so little.
Unlike building a car.
Curing a disease
or administering medical care.
Education is not easily quantified.
Failure is built around tests.
How can we make education something we just don't recreate what we have now in classrooms?

Some people learn differently.
What they hear.
What they see.
Different paces.
Education evolves to be more personal.
Pick and choose the things that make most sense to you.
Sitting in classrooms - that is last century.

Salim: Reading streams - passive learning. Constant
Right.
David A: Teams. Complex situations. Larger groups.

GE moved from very individual training to team training.

David A: 
: I'm a lawyer. Team training - I know cloud computing. We had to know everybody else's job as well.
Critical to train on all aspects of knowledge - then you know how broad your knowledge is.

Tony: GE has internal structure. Top scientists.
Agree with SU view of future?

Some would. Some wouldn't. Some I have had wonderful discussions with. Trying to meet with Ray.
A lot of really smart people do believe in that.

Steve: Leadership training? Competitive advantage?

GE. Good symbol of what a big company is. 
Leadership starts at entry level.
2 years of training.
6 month rotations, taking different jobs.
Some in class, in projects. Mentored.
Quite structured, very good.
Problem at GE - after those 2 years, get hired away for much bigger salaries.
At 8 year mark, get initial mgt. At 15 year mark, 3 weeks in classroom on leadership.
22 year mark for pretty senior people.
Pretty good.
Also team training, separately from that.
Bus leader, HR leader, get taught by b-school professors.
How to think about this. Breakout time.

Steve: How would you improve that?

More on-line. One negative. Quite an investment of time.

Steve: Difficult to replicate. Let people go through plant.
Others have tried. Culture is different.

What made GE a really really special place.
It certainly was.
It was a huge deal in the 1980s Welch massively delayered the company.
The average business would have 10 layers.
He made a rule - no more than 4 layers.
He did it to cut costs.
Cultural change was enormous.
To get same amount of work done - from 4 to 20 direct reports.
If you are a leader - what do you do differently.

Steve: Self organize.

Recruit better.
It forced a much higher level of talent inside the company.
Better, more present leader. 
Most you would give person 5% of time.

: Does leadership

: Emulated - Lockheed Martin did it.

Not talked about enough.

Salim: At Yahoo. Offsite VP and above. 300 people in room

I had 30 direct reports. 3% of time with each one.
Do whatever I could to find and keep good people.
Very different mindset.

JG: Do big companies deliver disruptive technologies?

Solar PV - big company. Bet 10 to 1.
Probably Japanese or Chinese.
Devoted tons of money for PV efficiency.
Other than Google - hard to come up with most technology.
Search.

Salim: Mobile phones

Big companies.

Roberts: GE produces nukes. Micro nukes?

GE is a minority owner. We sold out to Hitachi.
So little interest.
Siemens
Mitsubishi
Toshiba

Hyperion.
They make 40-50kW micro nukes.
Power a town or neighborhood. Utterly enclosed.
No terrorist can get to the fuel.
Pretty economic.
Potential opportunity.

My view of energy.
Another big home - thin film.
I'd be shocked if, in 5 years, not part of building code.
Thin film on any external wall.

Wind.
Everybody gets.
Big thing will be offshore.
Big investments in Europe.

Time frame - 
long term solar. Best thing: PV cells in the sky.
Microwave down - in 10 years or so.

Juan: For developing world?

Not sure it is any different.
These will be cheaper than the existing alternatives.

Dhuval: No grid.

Which is why portable nuclear piece.

: Solar solution?

: Why Japan pushing micro nuke?

I don't know why hasn't taken off.
Hyperion has had very few sales. Pretty good solution.

Brad T: What legally is required.
:You'd be surprised. It is not easy.

Jose: Energy storage?

In developed world, sodium batteries.
Lithium ion is what we are used to.
Sodium is better - store huge amount of power.
Heavy. That's the challenge there.
One way it works in the US.
In the developing world, pump water up. Let it come down.
Low tech ways. If you have intermittent PV or wind.

Water.
We've been having fun talking about water.
Desal is a real challenge.
GE took a hard shot.
Hard to make it work.
Membrane technology is mediocre.
Energy.
Push salt through takes energy.
OR dramatically lower cost of energy for economic desal.
Neither imminent.
Unless this 1 PSI thing.

: Upcycle?

Put price on it.
Won't do altruism. They have shareholders.
Only way companies strategically design for recycling - tax those materials that can't be recycled.
I don't see any way.

: Incentivize.

: Big companies could be willing to sell - after disclosing - their waste.

: Seemed GE was early adopter of eco-imagination. Political shifts?

Part of philosophy of being a big company.
http://www.ecomagination.com/

Great way to recruit.
Potentially influence public policy.
Energy is expensive. Always trying to develop the most efficient product.

: Why 2004, not 1994.

Climate change.

: So based on social norms changing, you went with different marketing.

: Greenwashing.

I'm a bit defensive about this. Just when we decided to put ribbon around it.

: Other companies.

Walmart. 2006 wrapped themselves around green. Changed their image - got store locations they were having problems with before.
Mostly telling suppliers they had to get greener.
Helped penetrate towns they could not have penetrated before.

David Dell: Big vs entrepreneurial. Small cos have same toolsets?

In terms of gathering in - consumer technologies have equalized a lot of stuff.
You can be anywhere in the world and have all your information there.

Salim: Small have more - large have enterprise security tools.
I have not seen single large co more productive than small.

Went to Google Enterprise - dedicate cage.
Regulatory point of view.
We had to know exactly where our servers were. Where our data is.
Government cares.
It would have hurt Microsoft quite a bit.
Either dedicate cage to us or you don't.
They said - not our approach.
That was it. Remarkable.

Eric: Will the successful business in 20 years look like?

You nailed it before. Focus on learning. Utterly. Lot of experiments.
Very technology based - that will be where action is.
Global.
Most great companies will be global
Distinguishing - leverage technology, have right processes.
Take advantage of global

Telepresence. Phenomenal tool.
Phenomenal for shrinking cycle time.
Decision making
Product development.
Chicago, India, China - leverage best.
Companies that can do that will win.
Just China will lose.
Virtually collaborate better will win.

Eric: Just for competition sake?

Yes.

Role of government is to deal with social issues.
Incentivize the good.

: Carbon trading?

I would tax carbon. Politicians don't have the guts to do that.

JG: India tax on coal.
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/india-to-raise-535-m-from-tax-on-coal-output-this-yr/641033/

Great.

:

70% comes from servicing what they sell.
GE - global.
Particular mater

Future companies, learning all the time, global, global/local. What is difference between that and academia?

Different missions.

Better, more educated people in academia.
Better products/services in business.
The end goal is a little different.

David A: Always learning - fusion - business toward something more academic.

Best businesses work very closely with academia.

Sasha: Take on financial markets.

So, financial service companies are essential.

Sasha: Quarterly earnings. What we are seeing in reactions to blog posts?

Question is how does being public help?
Relatively inexpensive source of capital.
Gives currency to compensate.

Negatives are enormous. You are exactly right: need to perform quarterly.
Worse post Enron.
Quarterly target is unbelievably expense- things they do that hurt long term are legend.
It takes a gutsy leader - we are not going to do anything different.
If we hit, we hit. If we don't, we don't. We're here for the long term.
That is the right way to run a company.

Sasha: Valuation of digital companies now. Zynga. Facebook?
http://www.zynga.com/
My thinking - a largely rational, financial market. Uncharacteristically irrational space.

Question with FaceBook - either they figure out how to monetize.

Bill: Making a lot of money. Making a shitload of money.
Twitter may have monetization issue.

When Google was 2 years old, they had not yet invented ability to put ads on.
Put 1 million down, took 4 billion out.

Brad T: Never spent money Kleiner gave them.

Networking - only one place to go.
Very powerful thing.

Sasha: I understand they make money today. 

Expected value. 

Sasha: Largely irrational.

Brad T: Zynga social games - will be bigger than console gaming - which is a big business.

FaceBook, might be worth $50 or $10 bn. Currently $30.
Having seen what happened to Google, people are taking the chance.

: For awhile, GE was \"financial services\" 

They were half. As was

: Losing sight?

Yes. We've said that publicly.

Salim: Theoretical. Over last 10-15 years, cell phones and email. Speed decisions.
Huge productivity. How big those gains are, 24/7 decisions.

Own quick view - I don't think company like GE could perform globally - ability to compete globally.

David Rose: Small companies.
This room - people all multitasking.
Speeded up = not 49 days to 12 days.
Gave Slow Tuesday Night - fortunes made and lost overnight. Hyper speed.

David Dell: 8/10 years ago. Economists said you could not measure productivity gains.
Still don't measure the dumb things not being done.

Resort to revenue per person.

Steve: Hedonistic economics.

Haven't heard that phrase.

Steve: Depends on point of view. Not accurately depicting inflation - TV had certain functionality, 
now different. Reduce inflation.

Feature enhancement.

Steve: Fair to do?

If you spent $40,000 for a car in 2009. If you spend $40K for car for BETTER car in 2010, then you've had deflation.

Hard to do, but they make the effort in CPI.

Brad T: Nuclear power increase.
Some people charge - nukes in US tied to weapons. Led to proliferation.
How do we switch.

Concentration of rich Uranium - far greater for weapons than power.
Hard to imagine they were linked.

Brad T: Uranium cycle. Vs other minerals.

Everything I know about nuclear says that can be ramped up quite safely.
France 70% nuclear

We had one bad issue with Russia - 
If it were me, I'd be rolling those babies out big time.
But it is not me.

David A: Spaces for silence, reflection slowing down. Ruminating.

That is essential.

DA: See it happening?

People use the word. Great leaders listen well. Really really listen.
Leaders fake listening.
Other leaders act like they are not listening, but they really are.
That was Welch.
You'd say, \"Do red.\" He'd say, \"It's blue\" Then another day, he'd say, \"I have this great idea. Red\"

: Three problems/growth areas.

Oil gas - particularly offshore
Healthcare technology - kind of coming back - India / China
... that's it. Aviation is slow now.

Problem with China -negotiations make making money difficult
Energy not growing - excess capacity - lot of industries 4300 excess parked locomotives.
10% airplanes parked.
Utilities - not buying new stuff.

Last questions?
Salim?

Q: Health care IT?

Going to happen.
US created right incentives.
Meaningful use.
$780 bn allocated to recovery.
Several bn to all health care providers - carrot, no stick
If they demonstrate meaningful use.
Purchasing.
Nurse use
Doctor use
Be there for next 4 years, 
will happen despite doctors not wanting to do that.
Not same incentives elsewhere.

Good solutions out there.

Cerner http://www.cerner.com/public/
Eclipsis http://www.eclipsys.com/
Automating entire hospitals.

: AI for doctors.

Part of clinical solution- decision support.
Avoid conflict between prescriptions.
Advisor to the doctor and documenting things.
Creating checklists.
AI built into EMR systems.
Coming.
I'm optimistic.

Q: do you think doctor/medical in house or private outsourced

Packaged software.
Almost entirely
or software as a service.

Q: So going through web service an evolution?

Not starting that way for hospitals.
Is starting that way for physicians.

Q: Examples?

GE
Ethic

Q: As web services
DocuTAP http://urgentcareemr.com/
Urgent care, one example.

Steve: Industrial waste stream at GE. Normal procedure to determine what you'd do with that?

Start with what is the law. Certain things you can put in rivers.

Steve: To what extent - market failures.
Not someone handling waste stream in most ideal way.
Make sense?

Talk afterwards.

Eric: Business of business.
Government create conditions.
Advice to have government make right choices?
Advantage to special interests, not public.
Intelligent business to prosper.

Have every policy maker read chapter 2 of economics 101.
Make private costs = social costs.
If consuming gas creates congestion, 
social cost > private cost.
Anywhere private \x3c social, tax it.
That's where you need to equilibrate.
I sure didn't make it up.
Salim: Great.
Absolute pleasure.
Congratulations.
9:38 [applause]
David Rose: Finance Entrepreneurship track - after VC 
Angelsoft business model. 
1:15 to about 2:15 after lunch.
Under NDA.
Open the kimono. Let you know how new business models work.

gary.reiner@gmail.com

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul22-The-Singularity-is-Near
"7/22/2010 
Thursday 
7:30 - 9:30 pm 
Screening \"The Singularity is Near\"

7:09 Theatre is filling up
7:15 Peter: Pleasure to have you guys here this evening.
Who is not SU student/faculty or staff.
Let me take one second to say what we put together.
I'm a huge fan of The Singularity is Near.

Ray: You are up to 7-8 universities now?

Peter: Took one of Ray's books through Chilie.
University came out of that.

Ray: Captured on film, let's hear it for Transcendent Man.
http://transcendentman.com/

Peter: Last year we had early screening for the Graduate Student Program 2009.

Ray: We had feedback. SU students are a very important constituency.

Peter: This movie, I'm excited to see the changes. Has started winning awards.
Educate about what the future could be like.

Ray: Certainly my pleasure. Thanks for all coming out. [applause]
These two movies - Barry made Transcendent Man. [cheers]
Very different experiences for me.
The subject for me - didn't know what the movie would be like.
Quite pleased with the movie he did put together.

This movie, I collaborated with my colleagues
Ehren Koepf
Toshi Hoo
Jordon Livingstone
Anthony Waller
Movie is directed by Anthony.

I wrote the storyline
How many of you have seen \"What the Bleep do I know\"
This movie has same structure:
A-line documentary with a B-line story.

Topic is the Singularity.
Exponential growth of GNR.
Some debates with big thinkers.
*Ray Kurzweil
*Alan Dershowitz
*Tony Robbins
*Pauley Perrette
*Bill Joy
*Mitch Kapor
*Vinod Khosla
*Bill McKibben
*Marvin Minsky
*Martine Rothblatt
*Alvin Toffler
*Sherry Turkle
*Eliezer Yudkowsky
*Cynthia Breazeal
*Richard Clarke
*David Dalrymple
*Aubrey De Grey
*K. Eric Drexler
*Robert A. Freitas Jr.
*James Gashel
*Neil Gershenfeld
*J. Storrs Hall
They express their ideas.
Feasibility of strong AI. Mitch Kapor bet whether an AI will pass Turing Test by 2029.
He said no.
Has bearing on plot of this movie.
He explains why that won't happen.
Debate with Bill McKimmon
First to write about global warming.
Technology is a good thing, but enough is enough. Wrote a book called Enough.
Cites Ray Kurzweil. On the dangers.
We just don't agree on the solution.

Intertwined with this is a B-line story - Ramona - a bit tounge in cheek.
Like dialogs in the book.
At the end of each section, these playful comic relief from the serious topics of the book.
Same here. Playful story that illustrates the ideas.
It is tounge-in-cheek.
Presentation at 2001 TED conference. She becomes more real.
Gets coaching from Tony Robins in what it means to be human.
Won't steal too much of my own thunder. 
This much is on the website.

Different feel from the movie last night. 
Same subject matter as last night.
Think of questions.
Look forward to dialog later.
----
8:38 Movie ends.
http://www.singularity.com/themovie/index.php
Ray: What didn't we cover?
Q: ....
Ray: Spindle cells. Basically primates and elephants have spindle cells.
They are involved in emotions.
We see them lighting up.

: Great movie Ray. Are you concerned by 2029, won't be smarter to pick out what consistitues an AI?
Ray: Turing was very specifically unspecific. First talked about a test to tell a man from a woman.
He thought men and women thought very differently. That did not stand the test of time.
That a machine thinks differently has stood the test of time.
Loebner came up with rules. Whole body of literature. Some of that discussion in Age of Intelligent Machines about how to design an appropriate Turing test. Does the judge have some biological intelligence.
Go to the Long Now foundation.
http://www.longnow.org/

First bet was ours.
http://www.longbets.org/bets

If 5-10 minutes, chatbots can squeak by. 
If an AI can fool 30% of the judges, it is considered to have passed the tests.
Human foils.
http://www.loebner.net/Prizef/loebner-prize.html

Deep Blue beat Kasparov
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Blue_(chess_computer)

Objectively it is not testing consciousness.
Reason I call it the mind, rather than the brain, is to bring in this issue of consciousness.
You cannot design a scientific experiment that would measure subjective experience.
Penrose postulates different things,
cellular automata in neurons.
Even if they appear to be scientific papers, there is a leap of faith.
\"We think this is a source of consciousness.\" Whoa.
At least religions call it faith.

For me a test of consciousness is that if it quacks like a duck, then it is a duck.

Cindy Mason: At MediaX yesterday, they were talking about the 21st century conversation.
The way we would talk, not like now face-to-face, but
We have this element of \"recordlessness\" and we don't think the other person is recording us.
Whereas if you search - that search later could be used in a court of law.
With an AI, that conversation no longer has recordlessness.

Ray: We can have private conversations. We can have private behaviour.
We have set up society so that not everything is discoverable.
E-mail and instant messaging - people discover it is discoverable - more than paper documents
since it is searchable.
It can be embarrassing if nothing else.

Gordon Bell, CTO of Digital Equipment Corp. Record your whole life. All the things you see and hear. Record it all. Use image and speech recognition.
Interesting to have.
Imagine if you could go back and experience again, 20 years later. It might be very different.
Everything is discoverably by your spouse, your lawyer.
We have to redefince privacy.
Used to be closing the curtains.
Now you have 1000 virtual windows.
I think privacy is an important feature that we want to preserve.
Companies like FaceBook are coming to redefine privacy.

: Synth biology. Where is that on the exponetial curve?

Synth bio is an aspect of understanding biology as a set of information processes.
Craig Venter's demonstration was critical.
Used a lot of the machinery of biology itself.
Nonetheless, the genome of this bacterium started out as a computer file.
For a billion years, 
humans in this room,
trees outside,
bacteria.
Every organism had a parent - or two.
Now we have an organism which was an e-mail attachment.
A billion descendents of that organism now exists.
Article in NY Times said, \"well, small step ... really can't do anything ....\"
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/21/science/21cell.html
comments minimizing it.
Reminded me of Wright Brothers.
Only a few minutes, no room for luggage, not practical vehicle.
Started whole new concept.
Venter showed how you could design from a digital file, a lifeform.
We are early in that stage. We don't understand the genome yet.
Not a simple matter of one gene, one condition.
It is a complex, subtle. Nonetheless, we have that software. We can control it.
Silence genes. Add new genes. All these processes are early stage.
We are beginning to understand biology as information.
The power of these technologies will double every year.
People declared the genome project was sure to fail. But project was done 7 years later.

Things in early stage will be 1 million times more powerful in 20 years.

Life expectancy was 30 in 1800.

Emma: Should we take the opportunity to deal with rights issues now?

Great question. Useful to debate them. They start as polite philosophical debates.
As you know, these debates go back to Platonic dialogs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plato

This will become a real moral issue. Right now it might seem amusing.
The essense of my point is that is exactly what we will have to confront.
They will confront us.
Certainly one of the more important lessons from our religions are the golden rule.

Emma: I think having precedents in place, but until we have something to test, we 
won't understand the minefield.

Ray: Think you will be contributing to that literature.

: First mover advantages. Improvements to itself. Might cause powerful feedback loop.
First one to reach first general AI. Different from where everyone advances.

Ray: There was discussion about that first AI, whereever it is, should be a friendly one.
Not my view that that is realistic. That you'll have this threshold after which it will
take off in a discontinuous fashion.
Look at competition between other technologies.
One my be better at different things.
Lots of thresholds. 
Assume I'm right and AI passes Turing test in 2029.
You may have millions more intelligences.
We already have 6 billion that pass test.
Eventually there is a tranformation. 
Ultimately exponential growth but I'm in the slow, continuous take off school.
Hard take off school says, Pass this threshold and it will just take off.
It will pick up speed over time.
Is the take off hard or soft? I'm conservative on that issue.

Ted Selker: Thank you.
Communication bandwidth issue. 
We have a model of each other.
Allows bandwidth to be small to engender a large model.
Entertainment bots.
Ability to disrupt - one might reduce bandwidth.
Question is: the role of modeling of other in reducing the bandwidth and the dangers
of not respecting the boundaries of being conscious if being bombarded.

Is there more danger in the design of the communication protocol?

: Asked about bandwidth before.
Law of accelerating returns on bandwidth.
Hopefully there will always be enough.

Ray: Cooper's law - wireless bandwidth has grow exponentially. 
Martin Cooper who invented the mobile phone.
Will come lecture at Singularity University.
50 different ways to measure communication networks.
Bits.
Talking about large scale = large engineering issue.

: Question is what do you think are the 2-3 big breakthroughs to build a mind?

Ray: Good. I haven't gotten that before. I agree with Hawkings. Our thinking
does take place in the cortex. Structure is pretty much the same at different
levels of hierarchy.
We can use that symbol in another structure. Give it a name.
This whole structure is knowledge.
Only mammals have a cortex.
One of the innovations - we have a larger one.
Cortex is about the size of a table napkin.
We could create technology
With opposable appendage we could build tools.
Tools now to keep track of more than our unaided brains.
How to wire together
how to bootstrap
how does it learn

Other important regions
hippocampus
When trying to recognize a pattern. It goes off the top.
H recognizes it as a new idea - a new song, a new boyfriend.
Sends back down to neocortex.

Amygdala -set our goals, emotions.
our emotional intelligence is very important
Finding something funny.
Seems kind of subtle and abstract, but some part of brain is recognizing humor.
There was this incident where this girl was having brain surgery.
Trigger a part of her brain - they were triggering her perception of humor.

Salim: It is called beer Ray!

Ray: So they found that.
Other areas drive our goals, our sense of pleasure.
Can't have cortex with no goals, no reason to do anything.
What this module needs to do.
How it deals with invariant features.
But we are developing a conceptual framework.
We need more hardware.
We need a learning protocol.
It takes many years for a human intelligent to do interactions at a mature level,
at any level.
Short circuit that process. Automate it.
Worry about putting it through these automated processes and it finds it oppressive.

: I find myself wondering if human consciousness and intelligence and, if not, what
implications might be for most distant.

Ray: Spoke at SETI. Interpretations of Drake formula.
Does not take into account accelerating returns.
Planet in some number ...
Radio capable civilization.
8 or 9 different parameters. Make case for range of values.
Described two sets-
Either 1 million. 
or 1.25. So, we already know of 1.
Most astronomers who have looked at this conclude 1000 to 1 million.
Kind of like us.
They are not going to be months ahead of us. They will be millions or years ahead.
As we've gone from fastest way to send a message being a pony to what we have today.
These civilizations would be doing galaxy-wide engineering. 
How is it that we notice none of this going on?
Not bother civilizations like us?
To say ALL million civilizations have done this is very unlikely.
Doesn't prove there aren't any out there.
But I make the case that there must be 1000s or millions. Then they would be doing
galaxy wide engineering and beyond.
Could our humble planet be in the lead?
Existance of this universe is very unlikely.
My basic conclusion is, I don't think they are out there.
Might be one outside our light sphere.
Basic assumption is not correct.

Jose: Saw movie last year. Ideas important to survival.
Ending is beautiful and inspiring.
What can we do to help it spread worldwide?

Transcendent Man wil be distributed this fall.
This movie has just started a festival tour.
Won Breckinridge first place for special effects.
Screening in NY.
Montreal Film Festival
Warsaw.
Will be doing the festival tour through rest of 2010. Distributed in 2011.

So, maybe one last question.
Yimei Wong: In solar industry. What is the turning point. I haven't read the T's and C's at all.
Solar industry has been around for 30 years.
Only in last few has it become commercialized.

Ray: In terms of solar energy, that has been on a smooth exponential for last 20 years.
1/3 to 1/2%. But ignoring exp growth. only 8 doublings away.
Starts slowly, seductively.
Genome project - only 1%, then did other 99%.
AI is already 100s of billions of dollars of impact.
Every e-mail you send, phone call you make.
JIT inventory systems.
Land airplanes
Diagnose 
Already part of industrial infrastructure.
Doing them more intelligently - or at least more reliably.
Narrowness is getting broader.
Narrow AI getting closer to AGI.
AGI is not going to come just from AGI field.
Greater understanding of how human intelligence works.
Model is not some intelligent AI improving itself.
AI is pervasive already. Will become more and more sophisticated.
If all AI in the world stopped, our whole infrastructure would halt.
Only more and more pervasive.
All part of one human/machine system.
Will grow, same as solar energy, gradually, but quite profoundly.
9:31 [applause]
Peter: Thank you Ray.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul30-Milton-Friedman
"Friday
7/30/2010
7:30 pm

Milton Friedman
Event in Guatamala
Founder of society
Representative of Univ of Chicago

a Giant
1912-2006

He was very small.
All great economists are tall.
There are two exceptions:
John Kenneth Galbraith

Progression of Ideas
David
Patri
Great grandson Tobar?

Patri is going to talk about progression.

Mont Pelerin Society - Sydney.
Founder in 1947

Milton Friedman - economic liberty
Index of economic freedom

Show map - free are blue, repressed
Sad to say I come from red country.
Libya, North Korea
very few that are repressed.

Connection between economic freedom and development.

Libre is free - the freer you are, the wealthier you are.

Compare different nations that were divided.
Free market vs communist.
Two germans in 1950 and 1990.
West was much richer by 1990.

Austria > Hungary

Korea South > Korea North

Taiwan > China

Tanzania > Kenya

Puerto Rico > Cuba

Ate all the dogs in North Korea.
Incredible examples.

Riched country in Latin America - richest - Chile.
Chicago boys transformed Chile into the most properous nation in Latin America.

Places where his ideas spread are the wealthiest.

Growth in accelerating
UK 1780-1838 first doubling in 58 years
US in 47 years
China in 7 years
So you see an acceleration in rate of growth

Until 18th century, GDP didn't grow much.
Almost 400% in 20th.
In this century, 5000% projected.

Milton Friedman Prize
Because of technology, twitters - 
Yon Goicoechea - 23 years old.
Began fighting government 2 million people marching after him.
When he got $2 m, he gave it to a university to support ideas of freedom
Chavez hates this guy - not for the money, but for the ideas of freedom and liberty

Ideas are everywhere - Jose's books in Spanish
\"Free to Choose\" is one of the best books ever written.

Most famous book in Latin America -
we believe government control will change countries.

Chavez has said ... 
these are his brothers.
Opened the 
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/07/16/venezuela-opens-tomb-independence-hero-simon-bolivar-investigate-death/

Baby outsourced in India.

Machinery of Freedom - by David Friedman

Last year only 40 students.
Our class has gone up to 80 students.
Champagne gets bigger too.

Larry Page said, 
\"If I was a student, this is where I would want to be.\"

10^9+

Five team projects.
Food
Space
Energy
Upcycle
Water

20 people running SF marathon

We have increased the quality of the parties.

We want to improve the human condition

Four ways to spend money -
yours or someone elses
Spend yourself or someone spends it for you

We don't want to blame darkness: light up the world

I'm a political exile.
I'm moving to Korea
South Korea is most illuminated place.
North Korea is dark.

Just opened first website in N. Korea.
South has millions.

New Songdo City- most advanced city, just outside Seoul

Chinese phrase:
First character means danger
Second character means opportunity

Thank you
Muchas gracias

8:13 6 minute video about Milton Friedman

Switch from system from where money goes to schools to system where money goes to students.

In the last 3 years, 1000s of people have said, \"We could really use Milton Friedman now\"
$13 T in debt
Reason we wanted to educate - full choice always has that effect.
Future has to do with education.
Magnificant point.

Has to be a constant effort to make education more dynamic. Offer more choices.
You can have a single expectation - but more charter schools, voucher programs.

Friedman said, use vouchers, break teacher's monopoly.
Henry Ford did not revolutionize transportation without free trade
Where do you find angels who are going to organize society for us.

Reminded me of the runaway nature of government.

He wrote an article about school choice 50 years ago.
Voucher equal to about 50% of what tax payers are paying.
Best I can tell you - competition is a good thing.

Major reform would benefit low income more than anything else.
Whether born here or not, it was up to us to organize to allow opportunity.

Remember school choice.
Thank you for participating. 
I really wish he was back with us.
You say, such and such was a genius.
The heart of a patriot, and a warrior.
What is our future here?
Friedman Foundation is playing a key role in expanding voucher programs.
These problems are hardly resolved. Years go by. 
Milton Friedman was out there speaking to one of the most important issues of our century.

The Foundation for Educational Choice

8:20 End of video [applause]

Jose: OK, so this is one of the greatest heros of my life.
Changed the lives of many people in many countries.

Now, from the past to the future.
He was telling me that each generation has improved - each 1 inch higher.

Patri: in 10 years, get to 6 feet.

Jose: Dir of World Transhumanist Assoc.
In touch through classical liberal ideas.
In favor of exponential change technology.
Worked at Google.
Founded foundation.
Tell us what he is doing, where the world is going.

8:22 Patri
Alright, so, important things out of the way first.
It was my birthday yesterday
850 Williams way in Mountain view. 100-150 people
Futurists/ transhumanists

Freedom and technology
Choice and competition - in politics and government.
I will go fast.
You guys are used to it.
Exec summary - by thinking about govt
not through morality/ phil but through entrepreneurship
understand why people are dissatisfied.
How they could get what they want.

I agree wholeheartedly with methods and beliefs.
Disagree with some of his methods.

He loved nothing more than a good argument.
Government can be viewed as an information technology.
A set of laws.
Patterns of information
Legal code like a computer code - takes input, produces verdict.
Unreliable hardware.
Relentless improvement in hardware.
Why is govt missing out on this growth

OS was written over 200 years ago.
Nothing new in beta testing
It is a technology, but doesn't act like other technologies
Quality of government really matters.
Quality of government effects wealth.
From 3% to 6-8%.
If you know exp growth, massive massive outcome over the long term.
Get immortality, space travel, ending all diseases.

Not just for libertarians, but everyone that government technology is so stagnant.

I like to use emergent systems.
Three levels.
Rules
Meta rules - about how to change rules
Industry in which different governments compete and evolve.

Rules
Eat wrong mushroom, go to jail.
They are what is real for us.
We tend to notice and complain about them.
Assumes we have a system optimized to produce good rules,
we just have to suggest them.
For example, we had response to Exxon Valdez rule with law capping responsibility.
Awful law!
Farm subsidies.
You see bad laws happening again and again, maybe system optimizes for something
other than great rules.

Democracy has bugs.
Rewards oil companies and farmers at expense of general public.
Not the design spec.
Design was to reward majority
Public choice theory - what is the behavior that emerges.
People have a romance with democracy.
Not controversial with those who study it.
More fundamental - incentives of system are bad.

Kind of different way of looking at politics.
Not new software architects.
Buggy OS needs to be fixed.
Why are we still running this legacy code?
If you had a better OS for society, how would you test it out.
Whitehouse does not have pitch days.
What about the 300 million people who signed up for the stable release.
Now we are much closer to the root of the problem.
Technology is bad because no new ideas are underdevelopment.
Barrier to entry is insane.
To do a car company- need a car prototyping factory.
Get way more software startups than car startups.
Harder it is to start a new idea, the fewer youget.
Of course we don't get new better ideas, like we do in other fields,
no startup sector. No innovation.
Without startups.
Apple didn't invent the iPod. Others made portable MP3 player. Apple made it better.
Copied by big players.

Each of the levels - rules, political systems, industry.

How to act to improve government.
Most intuitive level is the rules - implement better laws. Form coalitions,
get consensus. Worked in ancestral tribe.
What my grandfather did.
Convinced 10s of millions.
In metric of minds changed, it was enormous.
Impact on ideas had impact -great patches.
Like all volunteer army.
More bad rules than anyone could patch them.

by the time my dad saw how democracy made bad rules.

Second level needed. How to optimize to produce net public welfare.
Machinery of Freedom - book

I and other libertarians. Not how do you think of good rules
How do you create box that cranks out good rules.

So then I come along.
The problem is the political system.
We have ideas.
We need to intervene at this third level - try them.
Startup sector for government.
Startup governments on the ocean.
For most groups, that would be crazy.
For you guys, we're going to space, going to be immortal.
Within this decade, bring cost of doing a new country from insane to
SpaceX, Tesla levels.
Ocean is uniquely suited to governments.
Big cruise ship - moves around. Regularly.
If we build cities on the ocean, they will be modular.
Secession is controlled by physics.
World where you can rearrange your buildings.

Go to ocean. Get right people together.
Ocean is different in this really cool way.
Seasteading - a disruptive technology.
Bring customer focus = 
bad customer service = DMV
Ripe for disruption.
We call the \"legacy states\"
Whole personal genomics - we're going to shut it down.
Instead of taking months - destroy 100 awesome companies? 
If we can't beat them, we are pretty pathetic entrepreneurs.

If idea of taking over 68% of earth's surface - only the beginning.
Space has this same modularity property. Move things around.
Re-arrange more often.
On the ocean, need big diesel engines.
In space, you can get out and push. 

Cool property. Can lead to much better societies.

Something about politics. Just makes people stupid.
Just grabs us and presses the stupid button.
To live forever, we don't need to fire our doctor every November.
Yet that is what people suggest for improving government.
Really simple to look at it this way.
We need startups.
Seems obvious.
If you believe me, probably only a few thousand people in the world who can 
understand this viewpoint.
Probably 10 people working on it.

Chance we'll be wiped out. This is important.
this is a time in history when the actions of a few people can change 
the fate of the world.
Do some brutal self examination.
Are you addressing the root causes?
Startups are the answer.

That's my answer.
Think of it as \"Singularity Politics\" especially if that will make you like it more.
Move out of anger and emotion into place of innovation.

Put together new countries - open soure library of institutions and society.
Take components, and make new one out of best ideas.
Give us exponentially improving government.
We see it everywhere else in our lives.
That's how technology can give us freedom.

Jose: Take little bottles, then big ones on the side.

Q: Mark Levine radio show.

Public Choice theory - democracies accumulate special interests over time.
Like bloatware in computer science.
Feature creep.

Q: Put off by comment that there is very difficult for new systems.
Been many radical changes in government.
Have been disaster - 

Not opt in.
Forcing an experiment.

Q: My view is - govt will be as good as people who make govt.
Are smart, evil people. How do you account for human factor.
People are not logical. How do you account for that?

A lot of systems depend on changing human nature.
To advance human knowledge, experiment.
Science is better than any individual scientist.
Same about business world.
Google is greater than Larry or Sergey.
Evolution with no intelligence produced us through trial and error feedback system.
If we had for governments, just like in business, science.

Q: Tony. Share your thoughts exactly.
Quicker through virtual world.
Any research on that?
Limits on human understanding.
3 years of law school to understand laws.

Nobody understands 120,000 pages of current law.
Virtual question is really interesting.
On-line you get much more rapid iteration and easier reorganization.
These things are great.
See more of our lives working in customer focused systems.
Only moving on line slowly.
For a long long time physical world will be really important.
Think about R&D for radical life extension.
Texas / Singapore - can't bring in all scientists in.
Helium lines.

Jose: 4 questions.
SJP/Australia: Seasteading. Involved with undersea projects.
Perhaps we'll be neighbors one day.

Gustavson?

Yes. What is there about environment to enable?

Two basic things - 1/ it is empty. you need a clean slate.
Want to avoid invoking the Avatar effect. I will fight to the death to stop you.
People get really really made.

SJP: Ocean is full of traffic.

Not 1%. Not 0.1% Not 0.001%. 90% of ocean without upwelling - things that fall go down miles.
Most is like desert.

Q: Voting with feet is very powerful force.
Can we learn from failure of having many different states?

One reason I am going to the ocean.
Federalism. 50 states before depression 2/3rds was local, after 2/3rds was federal.
Power does not stay decentralized.
Federal systems collapse.
Not to \"hope\" things will be different this next time.
If Israel could pull away from Palestine - they could stop fighting.

If Texas could pull itself into the Gulf of Mexico maybe it would secede.

Q: Jim Von Aeros- oxygen line.
Physical issues of sea steading.
Logistical issues.
Water launch of rockets.
Costs.
They escalate - uncertainty of environment. Roadways.
Host of challenges.
WE did it to get away from govt uncertainty.
No guaranteed of freedom to operate.

How does that fit - or fail to fit with biological needs of humans.
Jane Jacobs - cities and currency. Call it a small nation state.
Big drivers of value - point about cities - you can have a failure or a success of a
little world, based on physical questions - not just politics.

This is my first chance to draw an exponential graph.

So, ocean is more expensive.
Govt spend some fixed portion of our wealth.
What does wealth do over time - grows exponentially.
What about cost of living on ocean.
Constant but maybe some technological improvements. Slow decline?

This is the ocean tax.
This is the government tax.
They have to cross and they have to cross pretty fast.
Any time we can spend some fixed amount of physical resources to get better government.
If going to the ocean.
Now $300 /sq ft. Cheaper than SF.
If not yet.

Rouge waves - just add in to cost.
Work at seasteading institute - figuring out how to lower these costs.
More different things we can do.
More less educated people can move in .
Expensive at first. Cost can come way way down over time.

Two final questions. OK, three.

Erez / Emem:
Comment p- some bad ideas can be very viral. Nazi Germany. Bolshevism.
All for experiments.
But those with human lives should be taken very seriously.
If I'm floating with my boat to ocean land A, then that government decides I must leave behind all my property.
Not an experiment I would like to take part of.

Patri: That is the one area I worry about.
As long as people are choosing to stay there, fine. They chose it.
but that is only valid as long as people chose to be there and are free to leave.
There will be mistakes in experiments.
Experimenting is the only way...
if we don't experiment with human lives.
Most people won't want to experiment.
People who came to New World, showed it worked.
ONly ones that are successful get adopted.

Chiara: Which countries?
Singapore. CLosest to startup country in 50 years.
South Pacific = .tv is 10% of country's GDP.
Their sovereignty is one of their best assets.

Startup countries - won't get seat in UN or issue passports.
Will be a country in practice, but plugged in through some existing country.
Flies the flag - virtual association between the flag and the ship.
Some countries will be profiting by selling their flags.
So long as we don't piss off the big countries to the point they want to go to war.
Whole question of how we interact with current governments is so complicated.

Jose: Final question

Q: What is the plan if a big country does get pissed off.

Probably do whatever they want us to do so they don't blow us up.
We want to have relations. So the would tell us.
Be useful to big nations - medical research / facilities.
For
World is run by old people If you have best hospitals in the world, old people
are not going to want to blow you up.
Also AI robots with awesome lasers.

Jose: Highly honored by Milton and Rose Friedman in Educational Choice
All for Educational Champagne.

Patri: The foundation subsidies the 

Jose: This champagne is Spanish so it is twice as good, half as cheap.

Need some rearrangement for lights /music.
9:15 corks popped

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul12-Kauffman-Foundation
"Mon, July 12, 1:30pm \u2013 2:30pm

Where 583c (map)
Description

Bo Fishback bfishback@kauffman.org
Bob Litan rlitan@kauffman.org

An Entrepreneurial Approach to Expanding Entrepreneurship

KF is worlds largest org dedicated to supporting and fueling entrepreneurial endeavors. grant making org that promotes/supports programs. largest private funder of economic research in the world. http://www.kauffman.org

Bob - economist & lawyer
In worst recession since WWII
We are out of economic stimulus bullets

Flooded economiy with money, we are out of resrouces and people are a bit pessimistic. 

Incredible inflection point, we can't use the things we learned in grad school. 
How the hell are we going to get out of this recession? 

current economic challegene diff than great depression, didn't have huge retirement obligation.
Now with all of these aging people getting ready to retire
We in the US face huge deficits going forward

US is 25% of world GDP, if they turn inward we repeat the mistakes of pre WW2

Facts:
Analysis, source of US Job Creation
All net new jobs were in firms less than 5 years old. 1980 - ???
Established firms netted no new jobs

All the new jobs came from startups.
Firms in the first year are the ones creating the majority of the jobs. We are key to the recovery. People don't appreciate that.

Policy Thoughts:
1. Leave it alone, because the gov't is likely to screw things up. Good reason for this. 
1/2 of fortune 500 today was started during a recession

2. Politics can't help themselves, people search for economic growth. 

If you could do one thing to increase jobs, the most important thing that the US can do. 
Change our immigration laws
More likely be successful in the US than in the other countries if you start your company in the united states. But you can't start your company here because you have to get a Visa. 
We educate 400,000 people in the US every year with student visas and afterwards we send them away. We should instead allow them to stay and incentivise starting businesses and creating jobs

2nd thing: 
Temptaton in Washington is to spend more money. 
Example, tripple budget on R&D for clean tech. 
$$ goverment that pushes out goes to universities, and its getting funneled and created a system with a bottleneck to innovation. 

3rd comment:
Where are we going to get the money to start all the business. 
actually for you guys moeny won't be a problem, you are part of one of the best networks in the world. If you have a good idea in your team project someone in the group will be able to find you the funding to get started...

Bo Fishback:

Do not expect VCs to be your savers. Kauffman found VC firms are a wash, no superior returns by VC firms. 
85% of funding in follow arounds 15% in startups in VCs

Kauffman has not figured out how to help us, but trying to make entreprenoural friendly VCs. 

SCope and scale of where we came from and where we're going: 
Since 1993, we $50M have founded south of 1 billion to entrepreneur focused groups s in universities. 
Used to only be 35 classes over the US to teach entrepreneurship
Now 35,000 classes
But is is actually helping start companies?

6-700,000 companies get started in the US every year regardless of the economy's health
Which companies really make up the majority of the economic growth, job creation, etc.
Found that tiny fraction (few hundred-few thousand) create economic growth

1/3 or 40% of economic growth comes from the few thousand companies started each year. 

0.15%-0.3% are high growth

Asked \"smartest\" people in the world how to get more growth in startups, bunch of blank stares. 
Luck here. Fire in the belly. Bunch of BS.
Why doesn't anybody know the answer to this?
About 2 years ago, we started taking a close look. Very serious. 
Kauffman Labs, something which will last forever,
Focussed on one thing, super-scale growth companies. Change the way the economy grows in the future - $200M-$1B in sales.
Had to start from scratch - super-smart ambitious young people.

We started there because we thought we could learn from them just as much as they could learn from us, and hopefully make sense of the super messy situation of how companies get started
get to ask questions, have Conversations: assume you have infinite time and money
If you apply it to medicine, and what we knew then to what we know now, it's just as complicated
We want to focus on large-economic scaling companies and 2. how to make sense of that prgroeocus on 1. fast and large-scaling companies and 2 how to make sense of that progress

Process to gather a dozen PHD's to start a company they had been working on.
Started to ree
Problem is that they want to start a company in a field that already exists but people from 4 vertical areas.
$1 trillion education company - \"Seeking founders for education companies\" - 10 vertical markets in the next few years. 

Would like to see people crossing between Kauffman and Singularity.

What you guys think you would need? Meet amazing people.
What is the next step?
Lots of money can ruin company. 6-12 months away.
Resources at everybody else's disposal to something that can really get traction.
That's what we are doing here.

On-going dialog. Consider this an introduction.
What makes sense?

Q: Looked like programs are US. 35 different countries. Scalable global.

We are too. We research in US. We are wholly globally focused.
We are in the business of doing 1000s of experiments.
Which repeat? What we should do globally in last few years.
Can't do grant making outside US.
No problem doing things globally. So much money out there that wants to foster.
$10 b organization coming in saying \"what should we do?\"
Help partners make best use of their funds.
More than a full time job.
Getting smarter about how to engage.

Q: Do you ever run into problems with companies that you're trying to foster who are secretive about trade secrets?

Yes. We run into that. Entrepreneurs. Started companies. Been quite lucky.
Secret idea - how turn it into anything.
What we know for sure - no idea is valuable on its own.
Go talk to the smartest people - why in the hell has this not been done.
Amazing amount of benevolence. People are not inclined to want to steal your ideas.
Ideas change. It is rarely the first idea that turns into something.
What should be proprietary and what shouldn't.
Tricky line to walk.
Extremely safe environment. Make people sign NDAs. Myth that people want to steal your ideas.
Too hard to start companies.
We really do a lot of coaching around how people deal with other people.

Q: Chiara: If I have an idea, come to you, you create management team?

No, no.

Here is how programs work now. Looking to fund people who are in position to go and build companies. Not really started companies, but have expertise in an area. We are not taking 30% of your company. We want to take people and help them found companies, get them to make companies that go on beyond the founding.
We are not looking for \"low hanging fruit\" - serial entrepreneurs. We do really deep dives, marketing deep dive, social networking for business. How to build board of advisors. Board of Directors. Top 10 people in the field. What is so amazing when these people start to reach out - 80-90% hit rate. Those are the kind of conversations that happen.

We want to get into the business of creating businesses intentionally.
Watch me shove this good idea into the market and see them like it.
Only 1% sucess with that approach.
Whole other side of the world, very rarely appreciated.

Alison: Feel like you are in my head right now.
Education investments.
Kipp school
http://www.kauffman.org/education/knowledge-is-power-program.aspx
Global ed
Social media ed
Software development?

Way we are
Google Ed Entre - Kauff is top hit.
Tried Energy first - spent 8 weeks, no such thing as an \"Energy market\" 
200 separate markets.
Major heavy lifting.
compared to education - insanely dynamic, built and collapsing
HUGE HUGE HUGE funding goes into it.
We are approaching ed market as we hope it exists
Huge on-line learning
Revolution Foods - how kids in elementary schools get fed
Like Kipp.
http://www.kauffman.org/education/knowledge-is-power-program.aspx

Had question - non-profit / for-profit - what I care about is scale.

I predict 60% tech, 40% service.
75% college or younger. 25% lifelong
People thinking billion dollar

: State and level - CA is bankrupt.
Spreading all over US. Structural problem.
What seeing in America - first instinct is to lay off teachers.
Silver lining to all crises.
With so many localities - opportunities to enter this market.
Did not exist 10 years ago. Great time to be in this market.

Emiliano/Argentina: Incubation, acceleration stage has been figured out.
What I really like about SU - one step before - inception.
From these things, you get inception.
Not empowering individuals as much as teams:
theoretical
implementation
translate real problems to market 
Maybe one person, but very rare. Usually 2-3 different people get together.

Bo: 60% of tech companies that go on to be successful have 3 founders.
A third of cos with 3 founders fail from disputes.
Much like SU - wholly focused on place where there is nothing to help you.
Dissolve button -
We do not want to be incubation stage.

Emiliano: Focus on specific problems. Makes more sense.

Grand challenges.
We are going to definitely help.
First 6 months before creation.

Bryce: With education - amorphous concept. Not something we really understand.
and anything counts as education it seems and starting a public outreach thing seems as simple as typing something and asking someone else to read it and I'm wondering what you think about carving up the market space and saying these are the key thingsgs in the problem space, and how can we tackle these things and say \"these are the things that make education better\" and build a company around that?

We are not in the business of defining the problems or future of education, we put the fiilter of \"massive scale\" and few ideas meet that requirement. You have great ideas but let's deep dive into the grand challenges and come back to your ideas. Even if you have the best idea but there's no way to bring to market then it doesn't matter.

Bo: prologue of chapter one. How to get across the chasm.
Think about from where you enter market. How you get to mainstream market
Is so heavily dependent on what you're doing. When you look at Zynga vs other games it comes down to market psychology and that's a super hard nut to crack.

Google what is market size. End up at market research.com. You get 80 pages of nonsense, costs $7000. Read executive summary. Versus, talk to 20 people that could be your target market - 1000x more useful. Ask 15 questions that get to the heart of the issue. Scary. 
We pay for subscription services so people can do it anonymously and things like that but
98-99% of time, never happens. Scary to do sales when you are a technologist.

Juan: Super growth new ventures here. What is mission overseas?

Italians in the room. Just back from Venice. Verona. Turin. 
Set of problems of how you start building an entrepreneurial ecosystem.
Compare with Uganda.
90% of cos have 5 or less people. How do you get them to 10 person companies.
Very unique demographies.
Building in Silicon Valley so different from Bend, Iowa.
Basically why we need partners internationally. On the one hand, lots of money, on the other zero money.
If you look at what a city needs - Detroit is a disaster. No great answer to that. Really individualized understanding of something.
Banking system should build an internet infrastructure. You can't get on the internet in Italy.
They want to build incubators. Doesn't address problem they need to address.
Understand ...

Q: Book?
Crossing the Chasm, Moore. [ref]

Stay tuned to hear from Rob. We will be trying to figure out to get engaged.

Eric: Business plan? What you looking for?

In next 48 hours, just announcing education program. Seeking people to found. 10 week application period. Not onerous. Who are you? What do you want to do? We will get a ton of applications. Singularity. How do we make sure people get the right look. 2000 applications. Some publicity.
Not only thing we do. How to offer the other resources we have. Nice - web properties. Things you should be reading. 
Create exposure to this group.

Eric: Thanks.

: Lot of company building. Couple hundred employees. How do you see in environment like that, one built. Guys who never had problems before. Guys who have them.
You give guys some ideas.
At GE we would need something ...

A few companies out there we really like: company creating companies. The Foundry 15 successes since 1998.
Life sciences - Puretech in Boston.
4 have people - what works, what doesn't. Learned quite a bit.
Putting smart people together and starting companies has been tried before.
Not 22 year olds. We want mix. 1/3 to 1/2 from industry.
Thing I fear most. Easy to market to university. But what about guy at Univ of Phoenix. Hard to get him to quit job to start this company.

We take twice the people, 2 weeks. Fire half of them. Rescramble teams.
You came with 3-4 people. Get someone from industry.
Need young tech geek.
Need guy with experience.

We'll see how smart we are after we try it a few times.

Emiliano: Not smart, but very stubborn. Really not smarts. Dumb. Sometimes I am wary of -- we make is sound easy. Lose hair, lose wife, develop heart condition, end up with nothing.

I have some people who believe you could never start a program for entrepreneurs.
Some can be entrepreneurs. Some aren't. I think radically differently about that today.
Guy said this, Steve Blank/Stanford. All about agile development. When I started my first company, every body in valley looked like me. When I look today, over 50% are brown guys, women, radical departure from where it was historically.

On stubborn front, one of the things we can look for- we put you on your payroll because you haven't started your company. By being so selective, not the super stubborn - disappointed to create a lot of Larry Ellisons

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Ellison

Hardest part is selection. How do you tell who is who?

E: Mortality rates. Natality rates are more important.

Building on that. Early stage, creating the environment. From your standpoint, what are metrics. How long will you provide incubation.

On my god do I want to know the answer to that question!
Program we are folding in for about 4 years.
60 people.
40 cos started.
Now exclusively working
Sceptical about company formation rates.

: You can incorporate for a couple hundred dollars.

Huge success for me. I need to get out of here, go hire 12 people.
We've got a bazillion metrics. Revenue, job creation. 
Will take along time.
Renvenue numbers.
Just getting serious.
Where are you from?

: Canada

Will send you everything. On video. About their parents. We've got everything.
Psychology and everything.
Dad is here to make us stop.

Salim: In my talk - taking things from unknow to known. Putting black art or entrpreneurship.
Thank you Bo, Bob
2:41 [applause]
5 min break. then 2:30 program.

http://www.kauffman.org/Section.aspx?Id=About_The_Foundation http://www.kauffman.org/entrepreneurship/kauffman-laboratories-for-innovation-and-entrepreneurship.aspx

====
Instant evaluation
https://spreadsheets.google.com/a/singularityu.org/viewform?formkey=dGZadGpDejljY0JaWnRnV2Q1SEdYRGc6MQ

Next pads this afternoon:

http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul12-Team-Meeting
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul12-Team-Meeting
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul12-Team-Meeting

Bill Bing:
4 steps to the Epiphany by Steven Blank was also referenced, and I found this to be the best book on starting a company that I've read so far:

http://www.amazon.com/Four-Steps-Epiphany-Steven-Blank/dp/0976470705
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Gary_Blank
--
Summary: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossing_the_Chasm
Google Book: http://goo.gl/xzMG

Andrew Fursman

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Everything-you-think-you-know-is-wrong-by-David-Rose
"Everything you think you know is wrong - David Rose

David S. Rose
http://singularityu.org/network/pg/profile/DavidSRose
http://www.linkedin.com/in/davidsrose

Rose Tech Ventures
http://www.rose.vc/

7:34 pm Safety briefing.
7:45 Salim introduction

David Rose: Extraordinarily eclectic class.
Decided I was an entrepreneur. MBA/Columbia.
10 years in real estate.
Software company. 
Internet company.
VC financing.
First one took $20 million in financing. Product was really, really cool.
Write up by Mossberg. 
No body bought it.
Ended up having to restart company.
At that point, we hit dot com boom.
This time, only $2. From 1992, to 1997, factor of 10 drop in costs.
International: UK/France/California.
Wonderful product as backbone of wireless internet.
Nothing could hurt us unless everything crashed.
Which it did.
So I became an investor.
Father of social networking, who started 6 degrees.
Invested in his plan.
Instead of $2 million, only took $200,000 to get to internet product ship.
So that company also died.
Now I knew I wanted to be an entrepreneurial vc. 
Funded really interesting company, Pond Five.
Royalty free stock footage. Airships over Moffett.
When they came to us, 3 person team. Working. Had generated revenue.
Total investment, $20,000.
These days, iPhone app companies starting from $2,000.
In my work, I've seen this exponential dropping of the cost of technology.
Other people hadn't realized it was that drastic.
World didn't seem to realize how quickly things were changing.

Policy wonk - his business was changing too.
People on ground to deal with insurgency. Now, we call up Nevada.
Some 18 year uses a joystick to fly a drone to drop a precision guided bomb.
Everyone had stories outside technology business.

Everything you know ... is wrong.
It has changed how business works.
10 weeks showing how technological developments have changed the nature of business.
Unalterably changed.

Whirlwind introduction tonight.
Once over. Very very lightly.

Four Critical Concepts
1. The Long Tail.
2. Web 2.0 - a seminal change
3. Globalization
4. Acceleration to Free

Number 1. - The Long Tail
Exercise. Let's stay you are starting a record store.
What do you want to stock your store with. Ranked in order of sales.
Pretty significant drop off (a few very popular products).
What percentage of things are hits? Guess?
Audience: 20%
In our experience, 80/20 rule or Pareto principle. 20% of inputs result in 80% of the outputs.
20% of your teachers will give you 80% of your value.
We have internalized this.
Worked much more than linearly.
Reasonable chance of things happening.
However, what happens if we give you an unlimited size store.
Once you get down that 80%, it just keeps going. Those things are the niches.
Things that don't sell like the bible or Michael Jackson.

My thing is printing with letterpress. Not a widespread hobby.
But enough of us to have a mailing list of over 1000 in a dozen countries.
Understanding of world of niches that is the long tail.
What is the largest brick and mortar retailer in the US? [Walmart]
How many songs does Walmart carry? 
They carry 40,000 different SKUs (Stock Keeping Units).
What happens if you remove walls?
For that we can turn to on-line retailers. An early one was Rhapsody.
You can listen to anything. How many unique tracks are listened to each month?
All the music you want. $10 / month

Over 1 million tracks in the long tail.
Tom Paxton from 1974. Not in Walmart.
If you have wall and transport costs, Walmart can only carry 40,000 tracks.
7 million at Rhapsody.

Corner bookstore. Had 13,000 different volumes. We'd go browse as a family.
That store is long gone.
Barnes & Noble opened in New York. How many in B&N?
130,000 - ten times as many as local bookstore.
They model how many copies they are likely to sell.
How many copies does B&N have to sell to make it worthwhile for them to stock and make a profit of each title?
2
B&N has 130,000. How many does Amazon have? 7.5 million.
So, that shows the power of the long tail.
B&N picked hits. 
Amazon sells more titles outside the top 130,000 than they do inside it.
More outside the hits than inside.

What is driving that extraordinary long tail?
Had to come from somewhere. You can't push a string.
Things both pushing from supply and pulling from demand side.

[Supply Side Drivers]
Whole concept of centralized stocking
[photo of one of 13 Amazon warehouses]
Next thing that has changed - delivery on demand.
This is FedEx in Mephis, TN.

At 9pm, airport turns over keys. Planes fly in to Memphis. Machines sort them, reload them onto planes. By 2am, quiet again.

Centralized stocking
Delivery on demand
and
Virtual Distribution

I don't need to ship out a dead tree bound in a calf skin.
Changes the entire game.
Difference between physical and virtual retailer - number of titles can go \"all the way out here\" - books on Kindle.

Comparison of costs:
Hardcover
List $26
Pub gets $13
Auth royalty $3.90 (higher)

For e-book
Half of list price.
Pub gets $9
Author royalties are lower.
Profit is higher on book they are selling for less.

How seminal and important a change this is:
Last Christmas Amazon sold more Kindle books than physical books.
Only shipping for 3 years.

What is causing demand for long tail?
1. Internet. We live in a connected society. Broadband makes this work.
Everything connected.

2. Search Engine. Access through search engine.
Once you get to item - now you have Sampling Tools.
[Click to LOOK INSIDE]
Turn to random page.
Look at table of contents.
Audio book at iTunes, you can sample it.
Takes uncertainty out of buying.

3. Recommendation Engines.
When you find it, you get suggestions - recommendation engines, pushing people out the long tail

So, you get pushed out and can find anything anywhere and we're all connected online.

Not just books, movies and things that can be sold virtually. Company Niche Shops .com

In Utah. Retail establishments that serve niches. Popcorn machine shop. Sno Cone machine shop. Maybe not easy 25 years ago.
Chainsaw only shop. Snow blower shop.
Will have more detail later.

Number 2 - Web 2.0
For those out in a cabbage patch. Web 1.0 was brochure-ware.
Then transactions.
Rapidly moving and leaving society behind.
Video:\"What is a browser?\"
A search engine.
It is where you put your search terms.
Google.
Look at internet web pages.
I use Yahoo.
\"What is difference between search engine and a browser?\"
Don't know.
I don't know much.
\"What made you use Firefox?\"
My friend came over and eraasd all the others.
Google browser.
Internet Explorer.
Your browser ... uh ... help.
Chrome? No, what is that crown?
\"Have you heard of Google's Chrome browser?\"

That's what the world is like outside of SU.
Let's talk about platforms.
Before: Windows and Mac.
Entire game has changed. They are over.
Not Windows versus Apple.
1. Browser wars:
IE
Safari
Mac
People's browser Firefox.

Cloud based anywhere at any time.
Multi-platform: The browser runs off of the platform (can therefore use many browsers)

2. Collaborative Action. Really key.
Like eBay.
Now, much much more than that.
A host of things.
Depends on something that was pure academic subject.
The social graph. Who are you connected to.
How do you want to engage with your friends.
Academic
Family
SU
Ski vacation recommendation from friend. Which shuttle to use from Dan Barry.

3. Self-Service
[photo of Horn & Hardart automat]
How many know what this is?
[about 10 hands]
Novelty just to experience.
Last closed about 15 years ago. Now trying to get in Vegas as a theme activity.

Pre-mid 20th century:
Retailing at friendly local supermarket.
You'd go in there and get full service. Man would wrap and give you a pickle.

Mid 20th century: 
you'd pick it out yourself.
Instead of someone behind counter, you'd do that work.
Minimum wage person = checkout person

Present: 
Not needed. You scan and bag it yourself.
Only person needed is security guy.

Apotheosis.

Very Recent:
They gave me a scanner. Go down a alley, scan things. It will give you prices.
No check out. It charges your card. 

Not just retailing. From service to self service.
Scheduling service for my barber.
Don't talk to live person.
My barber checks me in and we're all set.
How can it get more self-service than that?

Kiosk at airport [photo with Apple logo]
Display shows what is in the machine. Suppose you want earphones.
It dispenses headphones.
If if runs out of red, it stops showing you it has them for sale.
The machine calls up the depot and tells the depot that it needs more.
Package sent, that has address for machine.
RFID machine. Canister swapped by UPS guy.
Machine does not have one single moving part.

Communications (the heart of Web 2.0):
1. Wireless communications.
Anyone here who does not have wireless phone right now?
Nobody had them 20 years ago.
I used to drive Senator Moinahan around. We had a satellite phone.
Could only be 12 simultaneous calls in NY City.

2. You also have VOIP - voice over internet protocol
It can be anything.
Fundamental changes are really really deep.
AT&T broken up.
Then local carriers.
AT&T was a monopoly.
Once you get to bit world, who else has access? Your cable company.

They said, well, ha ha ha, we'll carry TV.
Who else has access to your home?
Power company.
Broadband internet running over power cables.
Through a satellite signal.
Can deliver anything.
3. Video Conferencing
Including video conferencing.

AT&T showed picture phone.
Now, everyone of you has built in multiway, multipoint with iChat.
Built in conferencing.
What is latest?
iPhone with TWO camera, wi-fi based video conferencing.
Communications are at the heart of Web 2.0.
One to many communications.
Dissemination is key to all of this.

On Monday, top commander in world - lost job based on magazine article that has not yet been published. Due to PDF being published.
\"Official\" source - Rolling Stone.

With mobile phones, anyone can make a report. New iPhone can take video.
Everyone reporting everything from anywhere. Any news is going to come first online.
Not even sites dedicated to public news: micro broadcasating.

Anyone here without Twitter account? 85% of you do.
I try not to get people to follow me. You have to find me. Yet 1500 people following me. (http://twitter.com/davidsrose)
This has changed entire world.

Number 3. Globalization.
Friedman
Zakari
Tenets of globalization:
Outsourcing
Not just India or China - whereever most efficient, cheapest, or effective.
It will go where invisible hand says it should go.
Ideas
Creative work
You can reverse outsource - design in US, work in India.
You can have teams set up.
Individual people empowered to outsource their work product
eLance
oDesk
Coders, writers, film makers.
If you want someone to do something you can pay, commission them -- all online.
That is YESTERDAY's news.

Design logo when you start company.
Guy wanted to spend $300.
Crowd spring. you put up your logo project. Put up money. They will do it for you.
http://www.crowdspring.com/
You then pick which one you want.
Site says you will get 25 people. He got 128 people doing his logo.
After they were there, he could choose.
Why are people willling to do this?
Asymetry.
For someone working at home. Independent producer. $300 commission could be your entire family income.
Offshoring. Overseas or Canada. Teams you own. Teams that are individuals. Doesn't have to be in another country. Can be in your own country. Majority have some people working but not in their own office.
Teams for hire.
Generalists and specialists. How do you find them? Long tail. Search engine Panjiva.
http://panjiva.com/
All US shipment customs records. Entire database based on what you need done.
Say, pants. Come onto panjiva. I only want premium customers, or only wool, or ...
It goes through database - Guatamala, El Salvador ... 
Tells you their financial stability, ...

Contract manufacturers.

Open Sourcing
A lot more to come this summer.
Director is mentor here at SU.

Linux.
Applications like Firefox.
Tools.
Publically available.
Information

We all know about Linux and OpenOffice. How many teams?
Over 250,000 open source projects going on right now.
An enormous amount of FREE.
What is largest?
Wikipedia. Over 3 million in English.
Better than Britannica.
Academia said, \"This is insane.\"
High degree of accuracy. Totally up to date. \"The power of crowds\"
Literally within 30 seconds within resignation, his bio was updated.

Knowledge is Power? 
Or Access to relevant knowledge?
Empowered masses
Diminishing \"intelligence\"
Every person can access millions of people out there.
Turns intelligence on its head.

Number 4. - Scaling to FREE.
One of Ray's seminal slides: % related to things IT is growing and growing and growing.
Barber
Communications
Books.
Will only continue to scale.
Cost of IT is dropping exponentially with a rock.
On collission course with FREE.
We are driving hell-bent for a free economy.

Book: Taxonomy of FREE

Taxonomy of FREE
1. Advertising
2. Freemium
3. Cross-Subsidy
4. Labor Exchange
5. Gift Economy
6. Zero marginal Cost

Only \"pure IT' stuff can be free.
Newspapers have been free for a long time.
Where does money come from? Ads.
What happens if ad were to suppor Dan Barry. [McDonald's logo on Space Shuttle]
99% could be free if only 1% upgrade to paid.
Expand the concept: Freemium.
Apply to anything.
How about transportation. Cross subsidizing.
Gave away razors, sold blades. Gilette.
Subway paid for by business at end of the line.
Breakers.
East coast guys with resorts used to do this.
Cross subsidize with entirely different form.

Capture
Pornography
What is the difference?
Labor exchange. People have figured out a way to break Captcha.
Human will break this for you to get free porn.
More value obtained ... trading human time.
Gift Economy. Why have I given time and money and volunteer to do this?
Because I believe in Singularity?
Enormous gift economy.
People doing things for altruistic reasons.
Another thing driving FREE. It drops to Zero, you can't charge for it.
Marginal cost of music is virtually zero.
Music companies are struggling to find way to pay for it.
Or saying \"artist for art sake\"
Definition of economics - allocation of scarce resources.
What if not scarce?

Externalities:
Attention has value.
Perhaps a more interesting one in last 4-5 years is reputation.
eBay rating. How good you are. A potent tool.
Now a lot of people working very, very hard. Your reputation has real asset value.
In day to day, if you hold door -- get reputation as a good person -- and you get a better meal out of it.

The Whuffie Bank
[EK: That's my website]
That let's you work your reputation. How much you are being retweeted.
Lot more to come.

One extra thing, really key.
Anyone NOT read slow Tuesday night?
Things happen 
Filer Faster thesis.
Human being are processing more material than we are able to deal with it.
People on the street ... walk into camera section. Unbelievable level of change.
5 megapixel + + +

You are the leading vanguard. But what do you really know?
Video:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUMf7FWGdCw
If you're one in a million in China there are 1300 people just like you.
Top 10 in demand jobs did not exist.

solve problems you don't know exist yet

1 in 2 has been there less than 2 years.
There are 200 million on MySpace.
Bermuda has top internet. US #19 Japan #22

31 billion Google searches every month.
Who were these queries addressed to B.G? (Before Google).

Text messages > 6 bn poplulation.

Internet took 4 years to reach 50 million
540,000 English words.
5x number Shakespeare used.

Technical info 2x in 2 years.
Half of what is studied will be obsolete by time study ends.

By 2049, $1000 computer will have power of whole species.

274 babies in China
300 in India born during presentation.

Thank you
[much applause]
If you haven't seen wiki. Here is the short list:
The Long Tail
FREE
groundswell
wikinomics: how mass collaboration changes everything

Americans and others - interested in globalization.
Tom Friedman The World is Flat
Zakaria

Q: Things will be free. Challenge to earn something.

It depends. The penny gap. $10. $5 $1 enormous difference between free and not.
Free outsells by 1000s to 1.
Yahoo provides unlimited storage.
Google limit is 35GB.
Somebody is making money.

Study of my company Angelsoft. We don't charge for it.
Was a major issue back then. Method to madness. Long term value of building network.
In accelerating world, rapidly becoming

Q: Marco/Slovenia: Similar question. Everything will be free. Biggest value will be attention.
Ads
Cross subsidization
Sampling at low end, pay at high end which pays for the rest
Storm drain outside on this property
More IT at core, and that drops in cost, at some point, post-scarcity economy.
Then gift economy, etc., play very interesting roles.

Q: Kausar Samli: Exponential rate. How do we address those left behind?
Peter raised. No person not touched by TV. Billions of mobile phones. 
200 people who had mobile phone.
People below povertyline who have this.

Maslow, hierarchy of needs.
Food
Shelter.
Roof
Security
Ultimately, at top, self actualization.
We are heading ...
this is controversial ...
dystopic vision is that we will never be able to feed planet.
BUT if you believe in this Singularity-esque time frame you can, then the world looks completely difference from the past millenium.

Q: Everson/ : Consumer and machines. What is in the middle?
....
Bascially lesson to take away: NO industry is safe. All will be touched.
If you are a counter person at McDonald's in Kansas, person my be in India may take order.
Disintermediation - not covered today.
Intermediaries - publishers who found authors and made books, brokers -- made a lot of money due to friction.
Enormous amount of disintermediation. The curator survives. Very important role.
Publisher invested to get book published.
Now, any writer can produce any book. Don't need the publisher. What you might want is someone to help you curate.
Some might come from social graph. Some might come from someone like you.
you may be willing to pay.

That may be compensated.

Q: Eric /Italy. Is there anything that would be worthwhile to slow down? Something we should wait a little. Unless we hope AI to help us, we were probably not designed for this speed.

We are getting better. Not matching with our organic brains. We are getting bettter.
That said. It is a very real issue.
Anyone here not know difference between browser and search engine?
This is happening. Like it or not. It is happening.
You will find consensus that is can't stop. Not a practical question.
Role of SU is to help frame generation to direct in good direction, rather than not good.

Q: Mike Chen / USA. Do you see limit for open source?

Open source is part of the gift economy. Part of altruistic, intelligently self interested. If I give, I will get more. All the faculty are here to help teach you and frame you. I'm self interested with a very long term horizon. It will be better for the world. With a better understanding of what is happening here.

Q:David H/ New Zealand: Expand on Kausar's question. Free information and free things.

It depends. If you think about people doing things ... it can be a labor exchange.
You may be able to create/design a webpage.
Amazon mechanical turk 
https://www.mturk.com/mturk/welcome
Jobs best done by humans put in computer context.
It turns out to get a human being to read your Captcha.
You can do that anywhere in the world.
Need a human tast done, put on website. Pull down one of those tasks:
\"Is this a person or a dog\" Then pay 5 cents. Not worth your time, but absolutely worth someone's time in developing world.
So there are many ways the whole world gets pulled together.
MT has 50,000 tasks that can be done. Some require tests.
Example: interactive web connected features for True Blood DVD. About vampires.
Put it in you player. It says, \"Are you on Facebook or Twitter?\" It goes in and posts for you.
Takes your picture off your profile, finds where your eyes are located, transforms you into vampire, and reposts on Facebook. So your photo on Facebook turns into vampire because you watched the video.

Q: Michael / Denmark. Outsourcing. More and more functions. What is next trend. Will there be firms?

Next week's lecture. The future of companies - long answer

Q: Bill /US: Macro trend moving from physical to virtual to on-demand service. How many different models? TV? 

Absolutely. I have several investments. SetJam.
Hulu.
NetFlix
Boxee?
Clicker?
Lunch on new TV.
What about clothes. Gets to be tricky. Design virtual clothes. Or produce on-demand.
Daughter saw white peacock.

Q: Sasha/Canada. Asked Ray. Whole free economy thing deflates before it inflates. Music and publishing crippled. How to you reconcile with need for jobs?

Transitional times. How long? Probably decades. Always been dislocations. Luddites. Led by Ned Ludd. People who tried to destroy machines. Sabbotage from sabbot - the shoes put in machines to break them.
People shaking in their boots.
Total deflation. 
Post scarcity world.

Q: Arguably every single bit of business. Impossible to get in front. What about Q by Q?
That is absolutely the challenge. Aim at market that doesn't exist yet. Step by step to get from here to there. It is tough. You'll have to overcome.

Q: Justin / Paradox of self service. Yet entertainment used to sit back, now has to go out.
Music is hardest hit. When costs drop to zero, hard to maintain commercial edge.
Patents were supposed to give incentive. You might survive 17 years.

Any musician now - real hits business. Costs of getting produced are much less.
Nimbit
http://www.nimbit.com/b/
Make your CDs, etc. Really cool.
You'll see the compensation dropping, controlled by labels and only way was to buy record.
In frictionless world, real challenge.

Q: How do investors adapting?

4th lecture.

Q: David. Reputation economy? What happens to power of leader?
Reputation can be a fickle thing.
Depends on how widespread it is.
World of transparency. 
Now in transitional period.
Privacy, secrets used to be real.
Now, Twitter, Facebook, Foursquare. Rapidly erroding.
Generation behind you is growing without privacy.
Asymmetry now.
Inevitable outcome of being online.
Thompson/Reuters whole business is guessing, making trades.
In some time, you won't have Q reports. All will be online all the time.

Q: Two questions. 
First, on video, what do we care if people don't know difference between browser and search engine?
Second, service gone? Unemployment?

I think we care. Neither good nor bad, but it is a factor. If just magic Google box, what does that tell you about how they make decisions. Their actions will be based on their view of the world. Those who understand make different decisions. Critically important.

Service economy. Absolutely yes. In college, in Japan, chair gave you a massage.
I asked for wedding present. Now, you can buy at HS.
That takes the place of your masseuse.
Ultimately world where jobs shift upstream.

Q: ...

Really interesting question. Policy/ethics.

Q: Bryce /LA. Two questions. Growth of IT as proportion of GDP. How do you square with free IT?
Second, sceptical concern, thesis of increasing acceptance of change. Not sure this is born out. Genetics - FDA ruling on personal genomics.

One thing this summer. Exponential stuff happening regardless. If FDA stops it, it will go offshore.
First question - place holder. IT is taking larger and large place. Number will change. Less of GDP, but more of everything.

Q: Warren Buffett, pessimist?

Very very smart guy who lives in present.
No mag lev trains?
Transporters?
Different kind of thing.
Long day.
Lot to cover.
I'll be back.
Thank you so much.

Salim: We must exit quickly.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul27-SETI
"7/27/2010 
Tuesday 
7:30 pm 
Life in the Universe - SETI (Seth Shostak) Public Event

10^11 visible galaxies
Milk Way: 1 trillion planets

Kepler expectation: 30-50 \"earth-like\" worlds, 100 million earth like objects in the galaxy

Lowell, called the brigthest student Harvard ever had, died thinking there were streams on mars as well as writing about Martians

Edward Maunder ?

Viking landed on Mars to discover a dead planet
microscopic life in under water aquafers?

65M years ago a comet slammed into earth and killed off dinosaurs, if it arrived 10h later, would have missed and they may still be here now....
would they get smarter?

2002 poll shows that 65% of americans believe roswell crash happened, 80% believe that gov't is hiding knowledge of aliens

only ~2000 stars that have been exposed to our broadcasting signals (speed of light... 60+ years...)

2M years ago, white flank dolphins were the most intelligent species on the planet.. they later developed echolocations and got more intelligent... evolutionary push to get smarter

males display (his genes must be good!), females decide
if this is correct, then darwinian evolution must be universal

may find time capsule in space (lasts longer than radio signals)

look for narrow band signals if the aliens were really trying to get in touch (Signal to noise the highest) - nature doesn't make these signals

~750 star systems carefully observed

Frank Drake was first at SETI

Paul Allen gave $ for financing of Allen telescope array

~750 star systems carefully observed

Frank Drake was first at SETI

Paul Allen gave $ for financing of Allen telescope array- can make \"pixels\" of the sky

scanning power vs time is exponential (like moore's)

if assumptions made 50 years ago are correct, then we should find ET in the next couple generations 

more silicon than carbon on earth. why not silicon based? 
carbon is a smaller and makes more interesting molecules (CO2 -> interesting!!! SiO2 (sand) -> not as interesting....)

brain runs on 25 watts and is only 3lb - 1/3 of the energy in your body.... pretty expensive!
2lb brain ape, 3lb brain tenure at stanford

time-scale argument (today computing of a lizard, 10 years a human brain)
~30years, 10,000 times improvement
what happens if we get a signal that's a from an alien? it's unlikely that we will meet them between when they invent radio but before they become nanobots or computronium. argument that we look for life on earth-like planets is provincial - life would probably move towards the center of the galaxy because there's more going on there

questions:
brad: wow signal? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wow_signal agree with stephen hawking about not contacting alien species?
wow: 1977 ohio state - sweep the sky. every morning look at print out. one day found signal that stood out, wrote \"WOW\". don't think it was ET, another dish looked at the same spot and didn't see it.
hawking: consider north americans meeting europeans. culture subsumed and destroyed. SETI only listens. he's saying, don't shout back (like screaming in the jungle). signals are only weaker 3-4 orders of magnitude than we can detect. if you want to be paranoid, already too late....
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20727676.400-its-too-late-to-worry-that-the-aliens-will-find-us.html

q: do you think looking for radio signals is relevan?
a: we don't know, compare to telling chrisopher columbus not to sail with wooden ships and just wait for jet planes. quantum entanglement, bell's theorem may not be able to go faster than the speed of light.

q: what about geometry of universe?
a: they may do it, but like talking about wormholes for faster-than-light travel

q: dan: if you received a signal that you think is a legit signal, how do you decode? approach?
a: radio searches, integrate for a few minutes to build up intensity but data is gone. you can't see the info but you see the peek a lot easier. hieroglyphics decoded relatively quicklybecause there was a lot of material....

q: connor: what is the protocol for informing humanity?
a: there IS a bottle of champaigne at the observatory. press would be all over it pretty quickly

q: priv: what if people discover the signal and it's actually a hoax?
a: guy in europe said he secretyl used telescope to monitor EQ Pegasi and found a signal. a week there was an effort to determine if a hoax. protocols developed but have no force of law. say, if you find a signal, verify, tell the world, wait for international consultation (what is that?!) if US finds a signal, they won't hog the informaiton. 

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul29-Vint-Cerf
"Thursday
7/29/2010
7:30 pm
Vint Cerf

Brad: I'm going to scare you Vint.
Someone asked, \"What's a packet?\"
This man knows what a packet is.
That is going back in time.
He has had acts to follow that.
ICANN http://www.icann.org/
Here is going to tell us about going far beyond what was orignially designed.

Vint Cerf: Always get nervous when people clap before I start talking.
- Internet Security.
Improvement needed.
Some functionalities not included.
Originally done - frozen in 1978.
Has scaled by 6 orders of magnitude.
We didn't design the structure to do anything in particular.
- Internet 1999.
Global routing table - different colors/ autonomous system.
Network of networks.
Enormous amount of collaboration.
Not single-organization managed.
People connect because it is useful.
Reason you can have so many players is standards which are voluntarily implemented.

- Internet domain
650 million \"visible\" today
Many you can't see.
These have domain names, fixed internet addresses.
Probably twice as many behind firewalls, mobiles, laptops, sensor networks - not visible.
this is the tip of the iceberg.
This part is doubling now every 5 years or so.
Number of users approaching 1.8 b.
Bigger now. Close to 2 bn on network today.
Still small compared to world population.
Chief Internet Evangelist at Google
Someone needs to be persuaded to invest in infrastructure for internet to grow.
Everyone here has at least one mobile.
Maybe 20% of 4 b mobile today have internet. GSM and the like.
For many people - may be first and only way to get internet services.
For anyone who wants to build a system - you still have to make it convenient to use.
New element in internet universe.

Quite different than 10 years ago: very significant fraction in Asia - half in China.
About 400 m.
While fairly large, is only 20% of pop on average.
NA over 75%. Will see triple, almost quadruple that many online.
I've given up on Europe because they keep adding countries.
If you are using internet as a platform - take languages and cultures into account.
Cannot assume English or latin characters.
Statistics tell you the direction.
this is not a picture of the stock market -
amount of remaining IPV allocations.
How much of address space is left from version 4.
Addresses were designed to be 32 bits long. 4.3 b of them
I had to decide how much address space.
I thought 4.6 b ought to be enough for an experiment.
Variable length 
After a lot of debate - I said, in 1977, 32 is enough.
I assumed, if we showed it would work
You are part of the longstanding internet experiment.
We need a new address space - IP v6.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv6
- What do you mean you haven't implemented IP v6. 128 bit 3.4 x 10^38 addresses.
A number on the US congess can appreciate.

We are not going to throw a switch. It will be along process. Both IP v4 and 6.
Taken forever. IP v6 standardized in 1996.
Google is on v6 across all services.
Took out all places in code where 32 bits were assumed to allow both.

Something else - non-Latin characters in addresses.
.com
.il
so on.
Below that level allowed non-Latin characters.
Using UNICODE code set.
Includes 100s of languages, but weaknesses in 2003 version.
Internet Engineering Task Force completed work - being published as we speak.
Already accepting requests - 
Egypt
Saudi
Russia
Many more to come.

Just recently, the domain name system itself which has vulnerabilities.
Can now use digital signatures.
www.google.com - which host?
The domain name system could be compromised, produce wrong answer.
Worst, go to www.bankofamerica.com to some place which would capture your ID/password.
The names are now digitally signed. The digital signature - a cryptographic hash - if not altered, you have confidence it is still accurate.
Otherwise, raise red flag.
Signed digitally for first time July 15 this year.
Top level, second level and further down the tree.

Routing system - If packet has an address, where should it go?
It is possible to hijack packets. You can lie.
People reasonably say, why did you design it that way?
We didn't know the basic idea would work, never mind overlaying it with security
But not that it is in the hands of the general public, people want to challenge the integrity, the routing system is also using digital signatures.
So you can reject routing updates.

Sensor networks becoming parts of the internet. 
These will be reacting to data that has been measured.
In the US. the smart grid.
Connect electrical devices to collect information about use.
I got a bill for $300 for electricity - I don't necessarily know why.
What decisions caused that bill to happen.
Well, you ran the A/C for 12 hours in peak load pricing.
When there is a heavy load - versus when there is a low load.
One: feedback information to users.
Second: allow devices to not use electricity if the generation says we are going into a high cost or overload period. Maybe not heat water now or run dishwasher now.
Up to you whether you respond - your electrical bill may be lower.
Avoid unnecessary generation.

So, I am anticipating literally billions of devices on the net.
Fridges, picture frames.
think about what many people do.
Digital cameras - pictureframe goes and downloads images and cycles through.
Series from family - friends.
Mentioned this shouldbe a security discussion.
Grand parents may see images they may not like if compromised.

Internet enabled surf board.
\"If I had an laptop in my surfboard, I could surf while I surf ...\"

Now, I have a sensor network at home that I wanted to tell you about because
it is illustrative.
This is not me with a garage project.
This is a commercial project.
12 sensors in the house. Battery driven.
Takes light level, temp and humidity.
Sends to server in basement in a rack.
Sensor devices are also routers - running full linux system in a mesh.
Self maintaining. Which devices can see which other ones, relaying information.
One room - wine cellar.
If above 60 degrees - I get SMS on my mobile.
3 day visit to Argone - my mobile went off - the wine cellar just broke the 60 degree barrier.
So, every 5 minutes, got message - your wine is warming up.
So, I called Arch Rock guys - now a weekend project to put in an actuator.
With strong security so the neighbor can't reprogram my house.
Well, maybe next project - RFID chips on each bottle. Instant inventory.
Friend pointed out fall. You could go in, drink wine. Leave bottle.
Solution is sensor in the cork - maybe that samples the condition of the wine.
You can ask the cork whether the wine is good.
The one which got warm is the one you give to someone who won't know the difference.

We have a whole lot of security problems in the internet today.
Kind of like leaving keys in the car.
Technical and social engineering problems.
People will call operations center, mention a few names, the poor guy may give up information inappropriately.
We also pick really bad passwords. Sometimes very easy to crack.
Reasons why we have some of these problems.
Operating systems have buffer overflows. Cause code to be executed at high level of priviledge.
You can store a trojan horse.
Browsers that are quite naive about what they do.
Browser downloads file. It is a giant copying machine.
Some browsers don't think about it - bad stuff, malware, is most common infection.
\"Drive by downloads\"
One thing - better OS, browsers that resist.
Android - in source code form
Chrome - in source code form
OS coming - in source code form.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Chrome_OS
Mistakes people make in configuring things.
A really, really hard topic for PhD - is a configuration dangerous?
If out of range, that's easy.
Combination of values that leads to weakness is hard to spot.

All these various things lead to botnets and the like.
Hackers - mostly innocuous.
Now hacking for profit.
Keep internet running, source of revenue. 
Rent botnets to launch denial of service attacks.
Organized crime trying this. State sponsored attacks.
Google said attacks at end of last year - unsure of source. Very systematic.

Privacy problems.
Without going into huge amounts of detail. Privacy is hard to come by.
Makes it easy to copy / distribute digital information.
Lose laptop with your bank account number ... happens every day.
Memory sticks. People put important information on USB sticks - then lose them.
Not encrypted.
Each of you is carrying a very invasive device - camera / audio recording device.
People can and do record things.

Example: I landed in a helicopter -within 20 minutes, someone had put up video.
As I walked out, \"Oh, that's Vint Cerf\" 
so we have all kinds of privacy invading technology - leaves you with a feeling that
privacy and anonymity have evaporated.

- Cloud collaboration.
Just looks like time sharing warmed over.
Big building - connect via telephone.

Today - mainframe / departmental / desktops / now back to data centers full of computers.
Amazon
Google
IBM - Enterprise clouds
We are now in a state with this cloud computing with where we had the internet in 1970s.
IBM had SNA
HP had DS
Internet was to connect them.

Cloud to cloud - no vocabulary for that yet.
Just as there was no, \"move this packet to another network\" 
Had to invent the address space to allow that.

Now, in cloud A. Meta data - access control, to move into cloud B.
We don't know what actions we can ask a cloud to do for us.
Switch service providers?
Concurrent clouds?
In 2010 - big opportunity for research topics, invention for new collaborative systems.

ARPANet - Telnet http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARPANET
Use any other machine.
Feature - Network Virtual Terminal.
Never existed.
Every system had different terminals. We will say, \"You take care of terminals you know about,
we'll make the network ones all the same.\"
Got rid of the N squared problem.

We need a way for every cloud to present itself to other clouds.
Won't include all features, but will have lingua franca between clouds.

Lot of research problems:
Authentication. We are very very poorly positioned to put strong authentication.
I have a dongle - random password every 30 seconds.
2 factor authentication scheme. I have to HAVE it and know my password.
That is a form or strong authentication. We need more of that to protect people.
Reusable password is very dangerous.
If this one is exposed, cycle time is very large.

The governance of the internet remains a huge conundrum
Think about digital signature, imagine if you and I have a contract that we exchange online, we each digitally sign, you decide I have failed ot meet terms nd conditions, wehere do I go to complain about Vint Cerf failing to meet condtions, we care in diff countries, hard to determine where to go, and each country honors different aspects of the contract
Probably need a law of the net to deal with basic things and facilitate eCommerce
People think of the bad htings that happend to the internet in terms of law enforcement
The notion of attribution, who is the orign of attack, worm, virus is not a well defined question
The other thing is that, If I am under attack I am more intereseted with defending myself than getting justice
You first Call the fire department to put out the fire instead of calling hte police to find who's responsilbe
Imagine if we conitune with the analogy, getting an inspector to investigate proper fire exits, fire extinguishers, etc. to mitigate any disaster
Liked this analogy until I came to discover Conficker, like a peat fire, seems to go out but just smoulders and then bursts into flames again later
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conficker

Google is not trying to take over space exploration, just working with JPL
http://www.ipnsig.org/home.htm

Original Mars lander was meant to send info back to earth via DeepSpace Network, overheated and had to reduce data, JPL engineers observeed there was a second radio on board that could handle load but cuoldn't get all the way back to earth but could comunicate to orbiters. Rovers and orbiters were reprogammed to use the orbiter as a storage/relay before sending info back to deep space network. This is in essense packet switching and became the standard for the next Mars Polar explorer. \"Stored Forward Networking\" is now being investigated for interplanetary networking.
http://marsrover.nasa.gov/home/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delay-tolerant_networking
How Interplanetary Internet Will Work
http://computer.howstuffworks.com/interplanetary-internet.htm/printable

Why not TCP/IP, because distances are literally astronomical. Imagine a 40 minute return trip when you click your mouse.
We have many implemenations of this protocol on Mars, Earth, ISS, and Comet bound space craft and coming to Google Android

- Interplanetary Internet
Eventually all of things will be interoperable like the internet is today, once devices finish their missions, rovers, satellites, etc. can be reprogammed to be part of the interplanetary internet backbone.
Very fun challenge to work on, I wish quantum entanglement could be used but it doesn't look like this will work. You can't force behavior you can only observe it.
8:30 [applause]

Everson/Brazil: What kind of impact do you see with 2 bn people?
WWW brought avalanche. Experiences we share will show up on the net.
The world's knowledge at your fingertips - like in The Tempest

Industrial Revolution we could put any fraction of horse power to do work wherever we could deliver the amount of necessary electricity, with information age we can put any fraction of computing power where we can deliver the necessary ammount of electricity

Dr. Douglas C. Engelbart and his team at SRI created many of the concepts and tools that set the global computer revolution in motion.
http://www.sri.com/about/timeline/mouse.html

Packets have no clue about what they are carrying, the fundamental network was very very open and open ended, if you wanted a new application you didn't have to coerce the network to do anything fundamentally different. People could build anything and they did, it grew organically
Vint Cerf and Robert Kahn Paper 1974
A Protocol for Packet Network Intercommunication
https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.orghttp://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul29-Vint-Cerf/fileview?id=0B3BeYKoQJeyQYjEzNDA0MmItNmI1MC00OWI3LTk4ODctZjI4OTY2YWY4ZDU5&hl=en

Yossi: No control. Remarkable. Always had a control center. Always had to go ask permission.
Strength was lack of control.

You put your finger on resilience.

No central control, we wanted no limit on interconnection, we knew it would cross international boundaries, IP addresses are pure topology.
It had to be without control, no one would agree to use if they had to access, but they would agree if it was cooperative

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cochlear_implant

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public-key_cryptography

Jose: Tomorrow, we vist CISCO.
Energy.
Bob Metcalfe - Enernet.

I have smart grid interest - sufficiently standardized.
CISCO getting into the business of using information to use power more effectively.
Control.
I don't want to go into a huge rant here - we are entering into a time where we could get this dramatically wrong.
Kirchhoff's law - electricity will go where there is least resistance. Exactly balanced load.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirchhoff's_circuit_laws 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamic_demand_(electric_power)
Distributed control systems have stability problems
We should put power generation in a more distributed mode, episodic generation (wind is blowing, sun is up)
Don't have steady E production that you do with coal, nuclear, hydro, etc.

In the circuit switching world the endpoints have to run at the same rate or it doesnt work, in the energy world ...
We solved this? problem with memory
In the power world storage is the issue, how to store energy being generated episodically to power the stuff during peak hours (super capacitors, potential energy uphill)

I'm not the architect lol
http://totallylookslike.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/vint-cerf.jpg

New conceptual ways of identifying end points in the network.
Start thinking about new applications you can put on the net.
Take advantage of mobility- radio behaves differently from wires - multiple people can hear.
We turn our broadcast channels into point to point.
Satellite could deliver VERY CHEAPLY.
I see really, corners of the network architecture that have not even been illuminated yet.
I would not have predicted what is going on today.

9:02 Thank you very much for letting me be here. [applause]

Brad: Thank you for a tremendous talk.
Thanks for lunch at Google today Vint.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul12-Stephen-Coles
"Monday
7/12/2010
7:30 pm
Aubrey de Grey
Slides from similar talk: http://www.scribd.com/doc/522716/Aubrey-de-Grey-SENS

Stephen Coles
Slides: http://bit.ly/9JEQeB

PRIOR pad: http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul11-AD

===

- This is the damage
Seven Deadly Things:
1 Junk inside cells
2 Junk outside cells
3 Cells Too Few
4 Cells Too Many
Some cells are supposed to die.
The ones that don't die are inhibiting the ones that do.
5 Mutations Chromosomes
6 Mutations Mitochondria
7 Protein Crosslinks
Causes stiffening
Major artery walls, lens of the eye.
Why do I think this is comprehensive?
It has been the same for 25 years.
Some quite earlier than that.
You'd expect this to extend. It has not.

So, can we come up with a direct biological argument.
Damage, by definition, can only occur in long-lived structures.
It gets oxydized. Other damage is removed.
Not may long-lived structures.
We are made of cells. Which are long-lived.

- Robust Human Rejuvenation
Second outrageous claim of the day: we know how to fix all these things.
Cell loss - can be repaired with cell therapy.
Junk - Phagocytosis - can vaccinate against this stuff in mice. Engulf this amyloid - all you need to do.
Nuclear mutations - being ignored now.

We've got ideas. Lot of detail. How to go about - not just slowing down, but getting rid of damage.

- Intracellular junk in Alzheimer's
What is the nature of the problem.
Indigestible garbage -
[photo of dystophic neurites]
You can see this Alzheimer's brain is not very happy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autophagy_(cellular) is not happening

- Intracellular - in artery

- Bioremediation: the concept
Microbes
Ed Gale

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenocatabolism

- Environmental decontamination in vivo

- 7-ketocholesterol degratdation - a promising start

Lorenzo here.
Lorenzo Albanello - Researcher at the SENS Foundation Research Center
\"Lorenzo is carrying out intra-mural research efforts in the SENS Foundation research center in Sunnyvale, and was one of the founding researchers when the lab was first established. He holds a master's degree in Genomic Biotechnology from Sapienza University in Italy where he became a scientist and conducted research on RNA interference, a powerful method of gene silencing.\"

Tanya Jones here.
Tanya Jones - Research Operations Manager

People here who can give you more information.
http://www.sens.org/rc/who

- Only 30 years?
Hardly \"defeating aging\"!
Pretty good news. We can start on people in middle age.
30 years is a long time.

- Reasons for the maintenance
- Progress avoids diminishing returns
Not quantitative. Just a concept.
Red line is normal aging.
\"Reserve\" is amount of damage you can sustain without degredation of life.
Pink line is what we can do for people close to frailty threshold, and thereby rejunvenate them.
That's good, but diminishing returns.
Reason: difficult damage is continuing to accumulate. However well you clear up easy damage, hard damage takes you over frailty threshold.
BUT, when progress happens, in 15-20 years. Will be cost and convenience and comprehensiveness of rejuvenation therapies. Won't just get same fix as before, but will get ADDITIONAL repairs.
Individual will get biologically younger as they get chronologically older.
Same result as if original therapies were 100% effective.
Required minimum rate of progress in improving comprehensiveness.
- Longenvity escape velocity (LEV)
\"The rate at which rejuvenation therapies must improve ...\"

- The Methuselarity
The point at which we reach longevity escape velocity
Once we get there, we will never slip below again.
Will only happen one time.
- Structure of this Talk
- What rate of progress is realistic?
Hand waving appeal to other technologies. Air travel.
[1903 Kitty Hawk - 1927 - 1949 - 1969 Concorde]
http://www.nps.gov/wrbr/index.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spirit_of_St._Louis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concorde_aircraft_histories

- Results: LEV is very easy
Therapies double efficacy only every 42 years
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survival_analysis

Run your own simulation here: http://wiki.stat.ucla.edu/socr/index.php/SOCR_EduMaterials_AnalysisActivities_Survival

- Data
See 
How to make a car last 50 years
plan A
in 
http://www.scribd.com/doc/522716/Aubrey-de-Grey-SENS

- Which is more dramatic?
M- or Singularity?
Functionality S>>M
Human impact M>>S!
Synergy is indicated.
Step change where we become immortal. 

- Effects of risk aversion
Will we care more than now about other causes of death?
Will we act on this?

- what that means
First billion year old probably less than 2 years beyond 1000 year old.

- Irresponsible? An ongoing debate.
First: scientifically absurd - Tom Kirkwood
\"Paramilitary wing of gerontology\" - Richard Faragher
Resistance to debate ...

- SENS Foundation. Works on Aging.
Lot of people think aging is a good thing.
What you die of if you escape all the other things.
\"Preventitive geriatrics\"

- Why are we doing this.
Fun / Not Fun (slide 4 in http://www.scribd.com/doc/522716/Aubrey-de-Grey-SENS )

- Learn more
Paperback book

- Support SENS Foundation
Time
Money
this will change the world.

8:42 [applause]

Daniel: Questions?
Chiara: Assumption that damages are reversible. Not so sure. Length of telomere shortens.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telomere

Assumes everything is reversible. Can be stopped in vitro with telomerase.
Very much an explicit part of the grand plan. Only allow cells to divide enough - Chapter 12 is the answer.

Connor/Canada: In vitro and in vivo experiments. Computational chemistry. How important is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Folding@home ?

Not the sticking point.
May be helpful.
If we can predict protein folding from amino acid sequence, can make novel enzymes.

Brad: Auto analogy. Only true with a few automobiles. Do you see only the wealthy getting this?
We only do minimum auto maintenance.
Will be available to everybody due to the current situation where people get old and sick is very, very expensive. Med care past 60 costs more than all health care up to 60.
Economic imperative is to provide this therapy to stop people from getting sick.

Erez: Medicine so far is putting substance into body to fix problem. Approach to plaques - gene therapy. Could be done. Changing body permanently.

Some question whether gene therapy will work.
Ethics. No problem at all.
First we have no problem of pre-natal genetic diagnosis (pre implantation).
From a technical point of view, somatic gene therapy does not need to be permanent. Can be re-excised by administration of a drug. Sensible to do as a safety concern.
Completely false ethical difficulty.

Daniel: Basic work at mouse and worm level. Resveratrol - wine drug.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resveratrol
Coles is expert at studying Supercentenarians (over 110 years old) 

8:50
=========
Thank you Dr. Kraft.
Previously worked for NASA wearing a different hat.

\u201cIs There an Upper Limit to Human Longevity?\u201d
by
L. Stephen Coles, M.D., Ph.D., Director 
Supercentenarian Research Foundation and Lecturer, UCLA Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry
Molecular Biology Institute
817 Levering Avenue, Suite 8
Los Angeles, CA 90024-2767; USA
E-mails: scoles@ucla.edu; scoles@grg.org; 
URLs: www.grg.org; www.supercentenarian-research-foundation.org;

Monday, July 12, 2010; [7:30 \u2013 9:30] PM
Singularity University 
NASA Ames/Moffett Field, California

Very old woman lit cigarette during interview.
Longevity does run in families. Must be in DNA.
If we could analyze the DNA of these people, we might escape
heart disease, cancer (#1 and #2)
and stroke, diabetes, 

Brought extra cards - how to get in touch with me in the future.
Long for this World: Strange Science of Immortality
http://longforthisworld.com/

- Arthur C. Clarke [1917 - 2008]\u2028\u201cThe Hazards of Prophecy,\u201d\u2028Playboy Magazine, Vol. 9, \u2028No. 3, p. 102 (July 1962).\u2028
Robert Paul Smith, \"A Low Bid for Immortality,\u201d Playboy Magazine, Vol. 7, No. 8 (August 1960).
I wrote to Clarke c/o Playboy with a proposal following up on his suggestion that \u201cwe establish a new scientific organization to engineer \u2018immortality\u2019.\u201d
Sir Arthur wrote back to me in about a month\u2019s time on his personal stationary from his Technopolis Compound in Sri Lanka (Ceylon) \u201c\u2026 wishing me luck.\u201d

- Profiles of the Future [1960 \u2026 2000]
http://www.amazon.com/Profiles-Future-Inquiry-Limits-Possible/dp/0030697832

Recent Books on Immortality
http://www.amazon.com/Last-Theorem-Arthur-C-Clarke/dp/0345470230/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1278993397&sr=1-1

Butler
http://www.amazon.com/Longevity-Revolution-Benefits-Challenges-Living/dp/B001L5T2IY/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1278993442&sr=1-1

http://www.amazon.com/Ending-Aging-Rejuvenation-Breakthroughs-Lifetime/dp/0312367074/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1278993465&sr=1-1

- World Life expectancy
- Rectangularization of US Longevity
Average Life Expectancy in [1900-1902] = 49.24 years or 47.3 years for 1900 alone; in 2004 = ~78 years

- Demographics of Centenarians
8x increase in number of 100 year olds by 2050 to ~800,000

Supercentenarians

Who is a Supercentenarian?
A Centenarian is anyone age 100 years or older
Only 1:80 makes it into this category; 6.6 per 1,000 [16,600/2,500,000 = 0.0066]; 
Some say only 1:10,000 makes it into this category;
alternatively, from the 2000 US Census [~50,454 centenarians in a total population of 282 million = 17.9 per 100,000] or by applying the mortality rates from US Social Security for 2004 to the number of US centenarians for 2000, we estimate that the number of age 100 (but not older) persons in the year 2000 was 16,600, while US births in the year 1900 was 2,500,000]. Ideally, we must compare the number centenarian survivors to the number of births during an appropriate time span (probably ~2 years) from 100 years ago (c. 1910). There is an additional variability due to migration and due to the cohort effect of adding persons born before 1900.) Another estimate puts the number of US Centenarians in 2009 at 81,000. (There are ~80,000 US centenarians today; but no one knows for sure). 
A Supercentenarian is anyone age 110 years or older
Only 1:50,000 persons makes it into this category
Prof. Tom Perls, M.D. of The New England Centenarian Study in Boston, MA \u2028has recently stated that the likelihood of becoming a Supercentenarian was 1 in 7 million [*], but this calcula- tion most likely refers to the present world population and not the population at the time of birth of this cohort.
* Sarah Baldauf, \"The Science of Aging: Our Genes, Not the Whole Story: Epigenetics Is Exploring Why Our DNA Is Not
Necessarily Our Destiny,\" US News & World Report, p. 29, Col. 2, Lines 4,5 (February 2010).

- Who is a Supercentenarian?
As of today (Monday, July 12th), there are 79 Validated Living Supercentenarians World Wide 
(USA : nonUS = 21 : 58) (Female : Male = 76 : 3)
Once you were to make it to becoming a Supercentenarian, the chances of living even one more year is like flipping a coin (H:T or 50 percent mortality rate)! 

Therefore, these individuals are a very precious resource for humanity, and we need to act quickly; otherwise, whatever they have to teach us will be gone forever

These people are a very precious resource.

- The Oldest Documented Supercentenarian in History

40 yo 120 yo
According to the Guinness Book of World Records, the oldest documented Supercentenarian in history was French woman Madame Jeanne-Louise Calment, who died in 1997 at 122 years, 164 days

- Fraudulent Claims
July 8, 2010; Sachire, GEORGIA (AP) \u2013 Antisa Khvichava would be the oldest person in the world at the alleged age of 130, born July 8, 1880. But the oldest document is from1965; another from 1989; and another from 2008. The odds of reaching 120 are 10 billion to 1; 130 are trillions to 1. (Lock Ness Monster, Bigfoot, or Abominable Snow Man). The US has Census Records for 1900, 1910, 1920, and1930. Where was she before? She gave birth to her 70 yo Son at age 60 is an unlikely story without IVF.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antisa_Khvichava

How could she have had children at age 60? Where was she at age 120?

- Rectangularization of Longevity 
While Prof. James Fries\u2019s \u201cCompression of Morbidity\" hypothesis may not be entirely correct, there is a definite \u201cRectangularization\u201d of the human longevity curve, and it is becoming stronger with the passage of time 

If we take Japanese centenarians as one example\u2026

In 1992, there were 3,000 centenarians; oldest person = 114 yo 
In 1998, there were 10,000 centenarians; oldest person = 114 yo 
In 2009, there were 40,000 centenarians; oldest person = 114 yo

Rather than seeing an increase in the maximum ages, as expected, we are seeing an increase in the mortality rates instead, especially at ages 112, 113, 114, and 115, with very few persons anywhere reaching age 116 (last occurrence was 2006) and age 117 or more turns out to be an extreme outlier (last occurrence was in 1997)\u2028

- Mortality and P(Survival) 
by Don Gennnery, Biostatistician at JPL (Jan. 19, 2010)

Graph with semi-log plot. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function

- Conclusion: A Mortality Plateau Is Not \u201cThe End of Aging\u201d
The argument for a halt in the aging process based on a slowing/flattening of mortality rates in older ages is defective because is based on statistical grounds; thus, mortality rates should not be used as a surrogate for the biological aging of individuals amongst the oldest old
Supercentenarian vitality does not appear to plateau; these individuals appear to get \u201colder\u201d every year, even though they appear significantly more fit in comparison with other members of their cohort having the same chronological age in earlier decades 
Instead, one needs to establish other biomarkers of vitality on an organ-by-organ basis over the last ten years of life for each of these individuals, so as to have a true surrogate for the aging process where each person serves as their own control

- Hypothesis: Nature, Not Nurture Causes Aging and Senescence
Potential Longevity (Both Average Life Expectancy and Maximum Lifespan) Lies in the expression of our DNA
Longevity-Determining Genes (a few hundred genes out of 22,000+) and not our environment or life-style dictate how long we might be able to live
Our major system vulnerability is vascular (~60,000 miles of blood vessels)

- Maximum Lifespan of Selected Mammals
Mammal Lambda Max (years)
European Tree Shrew 1
Mouse 5
Rat 6
Bat 32
Sheep 20
Dog (large breed) 20
Domestic House Cat 25
Lion (Zoo, not in the Wild)(King of Beasts) 26
Horse 45
Hippo 45
Rhino 50
Elephant (Asian)(Sunita female from the San Diego Zoo) 60
Elephant (African) 70
Monkey (Rhesus) 35 
Chimp (Cheetah; b. 1932; Palm Springs, CA)(actually b. ~1960) >76
Human (Jeanne-Louise Calment, France) 122 \x3c\x3c\x3c\x3c\x3c\x3c\x3c\x3c\x3c\x3c\x3c\x3c\x3c\x3c
Methuselah (amongst the Antedeluvian Patriarchs) 969
Bowhead Whale (Wild, not in a Zoo) >225
Ratio: 225:1
Ref.: Caleb E. Finch, Longevity, Senescence, and the Genome (University of Chicago Press; 1990).

Q: What about sea turtles.

Not mammals.

- Top 10 Leading Causes of Death [*]
Numbers of Deaths 
1. Heart Disease 652,091
2. Cancer 559,312
3. Stroke (Cerebrovascular Events) 143,579
4. Chronic Respiratory Diseases (COPD) 130,933
5. Accidents (unintentional injuries) 117,809
6. Diabetes 75,119
7. Alzheimer's Disease 71,599
8. Pneumonia (Flu) 63,001
9. Nephritis, Nephrotic Syndrome, and Nephrosis 43,901
10. Septicemia 34,136
Ref.: CDC; National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS); 2005
* Does not distinguish intrinsic vs. extrinsic causes of death, which blurs the distinction between Longevity-Determination Genes and Entropy.

- Survival (Logistic Function)

- There is an Exponential Rise in Mortality with Age
Instantaneous Mortality Rate\u2028(Moore\u2019s Law for Actuaries)

- Female Advantage
Female:Male Overall Ratio ~10:1. And by age
110 Years 90 percent are women 
112 Years 92 percent are women
115 Years 95 percent are women
Why is that?
1. Women Deliver Babies (C-Sections)
2. Men Fight for Species Survival (T, Cortisol)
3. Estrogen? (Post Menopausal > \u00bd Life)
4. \u201cXX\u201d (Mosaic) and not \u201cXY\u201d (Y = tiny)

What are men doing wrong? Or women doing right?

- Progressive World Record Holders\u2028(Table D on www.grg.org) http://www.grg.org/

- Numbers of Supercentenarians

- Average Age of Top 100 Validated 
Oldest Living Persons by Gender

A lot waiting to be found when we started our research.

- Mortality Rates for Supercentenarians
- Mortality Rates for Supercentenarians
- Numbers of Supercentenarians
- Numbers of Supercentenarians (Smoothed)
- Numbers of Supercentenarians 
[ skipped slides ]

- Supercentenarian Autopsies
Latest results from the Neuropathological Investigation of the oldest person in the world, 115 yo (September 11, 2009)
\u2013 Gertrude Baines
Was oldest person in the world. By coincidence, lived in Los Angeles.
Easy to study remains at pathology department at UCLA.

- SRF Has Performed Nine Autopsies\u2028(so far)
Year Name Age R S City Dx 
1. 2004 Elma Corning 112 W F Los Angeles TTR 
2. 2005 Henry Hartman 111 W M San Diego TTR 
3. 2006 Marion Higgins 112 W F Seal Beach TTR 
4. 2006 George Johnson 112 B M Richmond Pneumonia
5. 2007 William Seegers 106 W M Richmond Pneumonia
6. 2008 Daniel Guzman-Garcia 111 W M Cali, Colombia TTR
7. 2009 Sally Gappell 109 W F Los Angeles TTR
8. 2009 Gertrude Baines 115 B F Los Angeles TTR
9. 2010 Milan Herzog 101 W M Los Angeles TTR

TTR - native protein - moves from thyroid to all other cells
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transthyretin

- The Validation of Her Age
On September 10, 2006, Mother Baines age was validated by

L. Stephen Coles, M.D., Ph.D., Director of the Supercentenarian Research Foundation and GRG
Robert D. Young, Senior Consultant to the Guinness Book of World Records
Louis Epstein, Committee Chairman of New York
Mary Raterman, Human Resources, Ohio State University in Columbus, OH

Gross Brain\u2028Dorsal Ventral
Brain Sections\u2028Frontal Hippocampus
Brain Sections\u2028Parietal Occipital
Gross Neuropathology
Ventricles of normal size and shape
Normal vessels at basalar artery with only mild atherosclerosis
Generalized atrophy of gyri/sulci convolutions
No lacunar infarcts (no strokes)
Pale (hypopigmentation) Substantia Nigra (Locus Cerulius/Caudate Nucleus)
Normal Cerebellum
Microscopic\u2028\u2028High Resolution Granules 
Microscopic\u2028\u2028Low Res Mid Res
Microscopic\u2028\u2028High Res Tau High Res
Microscopic\u2028\u2028Tau Mid Res and High Res
Whole Mounts
Microscopic Neuropathology
Hippocampus: 
Braak Stage IV on a scale of [0 \u2013VI]
No Infarcts \uf0e0 no Stroke or TIA\u2019s (Surprising)
Incidental Findings:
Left Superior Temporal Cortex: Hemangioma
Probably congenital
Substantia Nigra: Pale (hypopigmentation)
But No Lewy Bodies \uf0e0No Parkinson\u2019s Disease
Cerebellum within normal limits

[ see also http://www.grg.org/calment.html ]

Acknowledgments:
Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine
UCLA David Geffen School of Medicine
Los Angeles, California 

Prof. Michael C. Fishbein, M.D., Chief-of-Service
Prof. Harry V. Vinters, M.D., Chief of Neuropathology
Dr. Sarah Kim, M.D., Pathology Resident
Ms. Nicky Larson, Pathology Assistant
Mr. Keith Ellis, Prosector, Office of Decedent Affairs

Mrs. Gertrude Baines, 115 yo
Birthday Greetings from
Los Angeles Mayor
Antonio Villaraigosa
and other distinguished
LA County politicians
Validation of Exceptional Longevity, Odense Monographs on Population Aging, Vol. 6 (Odense University Press; 1999)

- Six Blind Men and the Elephant 

Body = \u201cWall\u201d; Tusk = \u201cSpear\u201d; Trunk = \u201cSnake\u201d; Leg = \u201cTree\u201d; Ear = \u201cFan\u201d; Tail = \u201cRope\u201d

- History of Medicine (c. 1646)
\u201c\u2026 the life of man\u2026 solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.\u201d 

-- Leviathan, Chapter XIII
\u2013 Thomas Hobbes (1651)

\u201cWhat a piece of work is man! How noble in reason! How infinite in faculty! In form and moving how express and admirable! In action how like an angel! In apprehension how like a god! The beauty of the world! The paragon of animals!\u201d 
\u2013 Hamlet, Act II, Scene 2 
--William Shakespeare (1601)

- Argument: Here\u2019s Why We Should Not Give Up Hope
Era Life Expectancy (years)
100 Kya (Hunter/Gatherers) 18
5 Kya (Ancient Egypt) 25
1400 AD (Middle Ages) 30
1800 (USA) 37
1900 (USA) 49
2000 (USA) 78
~2044 (Singularity) Escape Velocity

- Augument: Here\u2019s Why We Should Not Give Up Hope
The best is yet to come
If real Life Extension is still 20 years away, in order for us to benefit from it, we\u2019ll need to be here when it does. (And the SRF will surely be among the first to know when we get close.) 
And for that, we will need to have a \u201cBridge Plan\u201d to make sure we\u2019re still around
(see Ray Kurzweil)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ALS

- Solidad Mexia, 110 yo, born\u2028August 13, 1899 in MEXICO

Let me conclude with one last slide. Solidad will be our first subject for doing a DNA sequence. Her children and some of her grandchildren. We will probably do 10 cases like this. Stanford IRB - Institutional Review Board. You need to have an IRB from an institution that will allow you to experiment with human subjects. Just a matter of drawing blood.
Drawing 9 tubes of paxgene blood - hand carried for full genome analysis right here in Mountain View.
http://www.preanalytix.com/RNA.asp

9:29 [applause]

Q: Methylation.

Third leg of stool. You can get hit by truck.
There are genes.
Third leg is epigenome - methyl or even ethyl groups
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epigenetics

Tried to control everything about mice.

No babies are born old.
All the decorated groups are fresh, clean.
Male chromosomes mingle with female at fertilization.
Very complicated chemical process. 
Calcium strips off methyl groups.
We don't know whether this stripping is good for you or not.

Q: Gene expression profiles.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_expression_profiling

Q: So RNA decays quickly.

Yes, need to centrifuge quickly.
100 page protocol.
Not having patient come to lab.
Do work in remote location.
Bring centrifuge and dry ice with us.

Hutchinson\u2013Gilford syndrome is an extremely rare genetic condition wherein symptoms resembling aspects of aging are manifested at an early age.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progeria

9:45 ... still going.

We have a big investment in our children. Grand parenting of our children is so important, we lived for a much longer time.

9:46 [applause]

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul14-Dean-Kamen
"7/14/2010 
Wednesday 
7:30 - 9:00 pm 
Special Presentation: Dean Kamen

Peter:
Team projects are the womb.
Personal relationships are the foundation of company formation.
Rob - lunchtime next Thursday - host those interested in incubating companies.
Building 20.
Long term endowment goal - all students were selected for entrepreneurial skills.
Option to support SU.
Extraordinarily honored to have two XPrize
Jack
Dean
Extraordinary in every way
500 patents now
iBot, Segway
Technology that he is going to be best known for is something he has not created yet.
Most important interaction - the Q&A.
Please help me welcom Dean Kamen.

Dean: As usual, Peter is an unreasonable guy.
Water
Power
Things you do at Deka.
Do it in a hour, or something.
Since you need something a little light hearted, the only credible news source in America - Steven Colbert.
Plays the role in his new show of a simpleton. Narrowminded, bigoted simpleton.
In all those bizzare statements he makes is an element of truth.
People laugh at it.
From one of those shows, we've edited down to 3 min.
Some things are hard to show, like an iBot.
Whenever I go there, I'll make a jackass out of myself so long as we get to say something serious about FIRST.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIRST
\"To create a world where science and technology are celebrated... where young people dream of becoming science and technology heroes\"
http://www.usfirst.org/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_colbert

For Inspiration and Recognition of Science and Technology 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminator_(franchise)

Downhill from here.
- Insulin Delivery system - 30 year old picture
Took a couple years to make and get it out. If you give diabetics a smoother dose than a couple of shots a day. Still not well known.
General theme - technology is moving very fast.
Sadly, humanity is not even changing at that rate. As the world gets more complex, people are getting more conservative.
Kids develop \"good judgement\" and do not go out to do crazy things.
Societies also age. Develop capacity to remain more stable. Less likely to accept change.
Fundamental overarching issue.
Every field of technology - every person here could change the world.
A lot of the world is sliding in the other direction. Less willing to accept change.
Makes solutions more frustrating. Already technically possilble. Won't be implemented unless we create trust and sense among smart, rich people - a very tiny part of the world. A sense of responsiblity to make technology available.
Use it as much as a tool as much as it seems to be available as a weapon.
We are very good at weapons of mass destruction.
Figure out how to make weapons of mass construction.
Water
Education
available where you can scale it.
Anyway. Besides that little drug delivery system, 
Peter likes space
I can get you the first 15,000 ft in this.
- [helicopter] Alternative Drug Delivery System
No DEA people here right? [laugh]
Help with stent.
Tiny piece of 3/16th stainless steel.
Take this beautiful piece of stainless. With laser, etch away most of it.
Snake up to your coronary artery. Take partially or totally blocked and open it.
old way, stop heart, stop lungs, take out little blockage ...
put it back in your chest, put ribs back, all stuff working again, that's a good thing.
Believe it or not that $15,000 operation is one of the most common in the US.
With stent, slip it in and you can be playing tennis the next day.
Brilliant docs. 
My core group doesn't do that.
But helicopter company lives and breathes structural dynamics.
Elastic deformation.
Get within 5% of yield.
- The Crown Stent 0.2 mm across
Guys I happen to have, the electronics guys.
Redefined geometry with aerospace guys.
Worked with FDA guys - could not say \"designed by motorheads in Michigan.\"
\"Alternative Drug Delivery\" people.

Touched more women in more ways than we are going to discuss tonight
- The Thin Prep Pap Test

If you let cervical cancer develop, from early stage, it is a disaster.
Computer vision - early work. Come out of robotics. Instead of inspecting stuff on assembly lines, decided they wanted to be in health.
Put robots looking down microscope. Very, very accurately read slides after training.
Dramatically reduce errors. 
Take cost - 10s of mill of slides per year.
Problem: unless slide has uniform monolayer of slides, system doesn't work.
computers good at some things, not all that good at others.

You guys give us a machine that will give us perfect slides.
From a standard sample, put down a single cell layer.

FDA said, we're not sure we trust computers to do this.
Tradition dies hard.
We looked at all your clinical trials and that slide stuff is fantastic.

Last year, prepared 80 million slides with these machines.
CYTYC was delayed, but not by a technical issues.

- The HomeChoice Automated PD System.
Like a VCR - but some of you don't know what that is.
Sterile disposable. Small and cheap enough.
Dialize at home. Every night.
Living in centers is crummy way to live.
We said, if simple enough to use at home, would feel good every day.
Simpler and cheaper.
Cassette.
Self priming.
Big green button that says GO. Octagon that says STOP.
We could make this.
Spent a couple years doing this.
Told we were nuts.
Took longer to get accepted than it took to develop.
We shipped our 180 millionth therapy with this thing.
Better for your health care and budget.

- iBot - sample of piece of technology that took quite awhile to develop.
4 years to get through FDA. Then, solving the inverted pendulum - one partially homogenous differential equation - the rest was just engineering.
Then when it went to CMS - the people - we'll reimburse it like motorized wheelchair.
Point out the alternative is Van Lifts. Home alterations.
If you looked holistically - by far the cheapest technology.
Spend a day being disabled.
Still in the process.
A rare piece of med technology that had a non-med offshoot.

I hope no one ever needs an iBot.
Pivots around. Walk up stairs while balancing.
Retain human balance capability.
- The Segway HT
The day it comes out and forever more I'm the Segway guy.
- photo of balancing machine in oval office
Like to show picture - 
I'll go anywhere to promote FIRST. I am telling the President, 
first ball of baseball season,
why not bring the winners of MY competition to the Whitehouse.
Great idea, I will. 
He did.
- photo of Mr. Bush. He didn't go down. But fun story that goes with that.
Father's Day. Had call from Bush 41, his father. Can you bring us a Segway?

So I took one over. Very ernestly, Bush 41 used it, very good. Barbara used it. As I go to leave, kids are going to love it. \"Someone is going to get hurt.\"
The following morning this picture is on the front page.

\"I thought you said these things self balance.\"
They work better if you turn them on before you jump on them.

- Power & Water: Two of the World's Greatest Problem
Water kills a couple of million people, mostly kids.
Surprises that lack of electricity kills as many.
So dark at night, people light a torch. If you do that in a house: you either burn to death or die from smoke.
Kills 1.5 million.
Poor people spending more money per lumen than we are.
From a public health point of view it is insane.

Two major problems relate to healthcare are: water and power, so why don't we solve that problem?
Take every disease that big pharma - enormous, highly successful industry
Heart disease
Alzheimers
every chronic condition
Add them all up. That is 50% of the people chronically.
The other 50% would go away if people had clean water.
Global expense on healthcare is crushing everyone - you could wipe out 50%of these problems by providing clean water.

You'll see where power comes in after just a second.
Water is a problem. At end of WW II. WHO, World Bank. Not like an unknown problem. Compared to all the cancers, go after low hanging fruit. Clean water should be straight forward. We looked. People do know how to solve this problem:
desalinate near ocean.
Living inland - surface water contaminated - put chlorine in there.
Water will look, smell bad, but not hurt anybody.
Bangladesh, India - dug 1.5 m wells. To get below organic problems.
Nice clean looking. In NA we've doing that for hundreds of years.
In our aquafers, there is iron.
our well water makes a terrible problem - spots 
Arsenic - leaves spots on your liver and you die.
Not a problem - osmosis won't help. Chlorine won't help.
Activated charcoal pulls this out.
Everything wrong, there is a solution - why don't we do it.
I' don't know.
I'm not a sociologist, economist.
Maybe those simple solutions are not available, circumstances change.
Amount of knowledge you need for which solution to use on a particular day. Can't go to 7-Eleven to buy more chlorine or activated charcoal.
We said, let's build a box that has the following characteristics - you would not need in that village the cheap solution - tablets ... whatever ... unless there happened to live a microbiologist, etc. people would not be able to use these technologies.

Literally two tubes. Anything that looks wet, put it in.
other end - potable water that means US standard for injection.
Took that machine. I'm jumping ahead. Many millions of dollars.
Took to UN, world bank; and said if this machine it existed that can make 1000 l/day (Water). It could serve100 people per machine.
Built like home appliance + little PC.
Build a few 1000 machines. That was a hard sell.
Big municipal water systems don't think this way. They really don't.

Besides having two hoses. Another constraint. Can't require chemicals, filters - it has to sit there and run, year after year. Minimal maint.
Turns out - some more interested in engineering.
We decided to build to take out all this - easy - let's literally distill the slop at the bottom. Metals won't vaporize. All the biological - is pasteruized. 
Vent off solvents.
Build a little distiller.
Do you know how much power it takes to vaporize water.
Sure you all know specific heat of water.
Turn whole pot to vapor.
Specific heat - amount of power 25 kW. To boil at 40 l / hour.
10x typical American house.
Beyond ridiculous.
Second law of thermodynamics.
Where did the energy go?
Vaporize, but compress just a little. 
Work, adiabatically. A little hotter.
On high pressure side of compressor, will go back into liquid temp.
Hotter than it was, but back to liquid. Run through counter flow heat exchanger.
As it comes back through phase change, that energy goes back into incoming water.
Magetically levitate bearings. 
How efficient can it be?
Same as a hand held hair dryer.
Where is the rub?

Same people who don't have water don't have electricity.
Let's not use 19th century mindset to solve a 21st century problem.

...

Put two machines together

Normally Deka works by focusing on inventing, then find partners with global reach and do sales marketing
Running companies is a lot of work
Win-win situation
Problem: people who have no water and no electricity, have no money
We have to decide if water and electricity are either productivity tools or luxury
The concept that the poorest people in the world would not have access to productivity tools is unacceptable. 

Not just enlightened self-interest or morality

Models that work: cellphones are productivity tool, developign world had no forms of communication, assumed the developing world would get hand-me-down communication from Ma Bell, no infrastructure, once productivity tool was something you could start from bottom up, women selling cellphones in Bangladesh, no penetration -> ubiquitious

Homework: figure out how to get them to people who need them. Figure out how to scale them up. 

Developing world: Will have small, personalised, high tech water and electricity generation. 

Cell phones are cheap in developing countries because they are useful in rich countries as well. By the time the phones get to developing nations it's already the billionth cell phone. No analogy for power and water inventions like these.

Developed world has alternatives, have to figure out scaling them up, plus sustainable educational system

That's YOUR problem, he doesn't know

Technology changes the world
Lots of places are dark, really dark, 4 billion live
Bangladesh size Wisconsin, 1.4 billion people
Test water/power use there, spent 24 weeks in 2 villages, electrified villages. They'd never had power before. The only fuel was cowdung, worked perfectly, PGand E can't do that

Took water machine to Honduras, made 50 20L jugs per day, none of individual solutions practical, imagine machine sitting there and making it healthy

Global to local view
Water machine outside office, used propane instead of cow dung
Methane-powered Stirling engine, produces 10,000 watts of energy. can use methane from cow dung.

Tell everybody that everyone goes to school gets 20 L/day, now everyone (including girls) go to school

Could light up Bangladesh
Capture CO2 right way, machines make electricity and clean up greenhouse gas
http://www.dekaresearch.com/stirling.shtml
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_engine

Homework Assignment:If you had these machines, how do you get it into the hands of the people who need them.
How do we get these machines around?

Back at DARPA
Met passionate surgeon treating amputations (unilateral and bilateral) 
End of civil war, took a saw, wooden stick
Most advanced systems to get injured soldiers back from most remote place, world class triage faster than if you were in car crash in US
If arm injured -> plastic stick with hook
Give kids prosthetic arm, can pick up raisin (fine motor control) and grape (afferent/efferent) without crushing it and eat it, self-contained, self-powered, fit 50th percentile female frame
Couldn't sleep after thinking about bilateral arm amputees
Take 10 years but will build arm, army said you have 2 years, build 1 year, you figure out neurocontrol
DARPA prosthetic arm, full abduction/flexion shoulder, weighs 8.9 pounds (50th percentile female frame supports 9 pound arm), develop some 4 independant control strategies, can put spoon in bowl without spilling milk, wife says you have choice, keep the arm or you keep him, 18 patients, trying to figure out low-volume production

We're used to hearing that it's all about Supply and Demand. But that's not true... once you get a sophisticated enough culture, it becomes Demand and Supply.
We create demand in our rich country because we can afford to
Get best of what you celebrate
Most kids can derive all role models from one of two places (Hollywood, NBA/NFL)
Ask any kid over 5, ask tell me name of any living scientist/engineer?, Hollywood actor/athletes
Country sells nonsense
What if we could make science and engineering and problem solving as exciting as running around stage or bouncing a ball?
Education crisis = Culture crisis

First: kids obsessed with competition
Can't get kids to play any sport unless seeing world-class adults playing it
Let Hollywood make it look appealing, create young enthusiastic people do it

Need to find young, enthusiastic engineers/scientists entists proud of what they did -> put them in front of kids -> role models
Why call teamwork in class -> called cheating
Sports works, make it fun, aspirational, afterschool, role model superstars, only 6 weeks, intense, double-elimination tournamet, winners/losers, in gym
Where find mentors? In 1991, convinced 23 companies he works with
Agreed to give it a try, in January, sent two engineers, to kick-off, inspire kids, don't have to teach, take kits, 6 weeks later, 23 teams show up, bonded, brought hundreds of kids (school), by end of two weeks, it would be all night and all weekend, all engineers very competitive, you didn't tell us engineers in our companies had more fun as kids, community heroes, with adults who listened and talked to them, all wanted to come back, increasing volume of teams, Disney built Olympic Village of Technology for 20,000 people at Epcot Center, do local events -> make regionals, real finals at Astrodome at Houston, Georgia Dome, now demands that every school gives full scholarship

Photo tour

Adopted a school in Ghana

it's the only high school student where every kid on every team and turn pro - Walt Havenstein
Invited presidents, unreliable, world events screw up what they do and vice versa, goes up onstage, how many weren't born in 1992, friend helped me get it started, convenient he was President of US, back to see how he's doing, walks off stage, pulls out paper, puts paper down, WOW! this is just like WWF... but for smart people!, does he watch that kinda crap? did he have to say that sport, running to thank people in pits, a kid hands you a button that states \"First... Like the WWF but with smart people\" G.Bush, offered president position of marketing, welcome to use phrase, Majojrity Leader, next year if I am here, I will schedule a Senate hearing

Education is not filling a pail... it's lighting a fire William Butler Yates

Technical community needs to light a fire, doesn't have a voice in next generation of kids 
Among rich kids, distracted by nonsense
Need get larger group of kids capable of being part of the solution of 6 billion problem
Real people who do it only have capacity to do it
Need to be acessible to all kids
Have to be part of First
World is in a race between catastrophe (winning) and education
We have to fix that, we can fix it
Need to have more kids involved
Help us, we want to be in every country and every school
21st century kid has to be capable of inheriting this world, complex, dangerous place

*applause + STANDING OVATION*
[STANDING OVATION]
9:23

Q&A:
Brad - Change topics every year?
Yes, every year kit is more exciting. Don't want returning teams to have advantage. 
Provided free kits and field support. Autodesk provides a whole suite of software; Autodesk, Inventor, etc.
Improve aspect of game every year, add more science and technology

Q: Bill/US. You've worked on a lot of different projects. How do you structure your thinking?
A: The first true test of we should be working on this project. If everyone around you says you're crazy, nuts, can't possibly work. Thats when you know it's a good idea. Assess costs, time -> know it'll take twice as long. I'm going to fail, look stupid for next few years. Go do it. Every once in while, you do. Ask answer, if it works, it's a really big deal - criteria.
Second: you figure out what it will take and what it will cost. Then you get comfortable with the idea that you're going to be wrong about these by at least an order of magnitude.

Q: Alison - as a fashion designer and fashion technologist, I would like to donate a kit, have girls work with fashion tech, add smart fabrics, have a runway show. 
A: I accept. I consider that a commitment that they will do it.
Q: Water and power. DIY. I'm curious how you are responding to DIY movement. Build education system around them in their community?
We think that is a brilliant idea. Even the most sophisticated places in the world need some manufacturing. Let final assembly be done locally. Create jobs at other end. If they can assemble it, they can fix it.
We assume, if we can put all the subsystem components, then create local mfg nodes.

Q: David/ NZ: Difficulties in getting water purifier accepted? Get another company signed on?
[Please don't talk about the answer to this to be fair to partners]

Q: Ola/Nigeria: How can we bring this thing to Africa?
A: get the prototypes into volume productions. Right now the kits cost a lot to make... we need to get enough tooling there to make production more possible. You know the straight and honest people in Nigeria who give a damn; you have to find them and get them to volunteer with FIRST.

You can't buy and you can't pay for passion.
People who want to take these machines are going to say, this is how it is going to work in Nigeria.
Volume will go up. Cost will go down.
Sustainable source of water for the world.
Let's stay in touch. See how to get to critical mass.

Q: What is critical mass?
We've quoted - at 50,000, they'll be 1-2K per machine.
Make 1-2 m l of water before it needs any service.

Q: Nigeria. FIRST in almost any country. Developed countries have knowledge gap.
Couple answers - get adopted by engineering groups, levels field.
Awareness factor matters, not performance of robots.

Big 10 don't play against smaller schools.
We will be open to everybody.
Build 1000s of robots. Millions of kids. Most of the robots aren't going to win -- that's OK as long as all of the kids do.

Q: Has anyone ever successfully talked you out of one of your ideas?
A: That I admit to? True story: my father has for most of my adult life reminded me that he and mother referred to me as a \"human irritant\". 
Do I always make smart decisions? No, I probably make smart decisions less than most of the people I know.
If I think it is going to be a good idea, I don't take risks to destroy us.
Probably unreasonable I'll keep going.

If I have to violate conservation of energy, then I'll quit.
At best, a guidepost. At worst, ...
Short answer: no, I don't let people convince me not to do something.
Conventional wisdom is a bad way to make decisions.

Q: Everson/Brazil. What would you like to invent that was not made yet?
A: The only thing that I would really like to have is a time machine. I'd love to go back and hear what archimedes really said, stretch the amount of time i've got, cause I got way too much to get done, and too little time to do it.
The only dimesion I don't know how to touch is that continuum of time.
At the risk of saying you'll never say never, I don't think we'll see that one.

Q: Davidad/MIT: Challenge bringing idea to scale?
A: The biggest challenge I typically have is convincing other people to bring it to scale. Running a business is a LOT of work. Don't want the 10-yr cycle of building a business and going through the whole thing, because you can only really go through that whole cycle a handful of times. Preferable to think of and develop the ideas initially, and then let others scale them.

Keep kissing frogs. Most of the time you kiss a frog and you get a wart. Once in awhile, you get a prince or princess, and I'm looking for princes and princesses.

Q: Sasha: Problem or technology starting point?

Here is the problem statement, what can address it.
Sometimes we develop a really cool piece of technology and decide, \"We've got to do something with this\"
Goes both ways.

Q: Sam/Australia: What is one project you really wish would have worked?
A: Water and power, because to me the definition of working isn't : I have this technology that I set out to do. The measure is whether it's out there doing what it's supposed to do in the world.
We have a couple of really neat internal projects right now that I can't talk about. Really good technical solutions to major problems.

Jose: Advise the Energy team.
A: If being your advisor means, diluting my time to work on the important things when you guys are all really smart and know your problem area and I don't know the problem nearly as well, then no.
Small, point of view, distributed local fuels -- I'd be thrilled. Try to get all the really smart people focused on that issue.
Near the finish line - connect all the dotted lines. Make it sustainable. Support and education If, in some way I could help with building blocks, that's a deal I couldn't refuse.

Q: In that case, we're in water [lots of applause]
Lauren: In that case, we're in Upcycle.
Anything that can make heat makes water ...

Q: Stopped evolving at 25. Life long learning. Lot of adults missed the boat? Ever thought of The Second. 

A: A lot of the mentors aren't hardcore wrench turners, but rather adults who love the positive interactions of these kids.

I personally, being an adult isn't being 25. Problem was - it was a myth in the first place that you're a kid until you're 19, 20, 25. I started my business at 16. You learn to walk. Control the things that leak. By the time you are 16, you are a person. Treating those people like they are still children is pretty silly. Takes kids, when they are ready to have intelligent conversations and allows that to happen. Very solid relationship. Not parent/child.
Long period of treating them as children.Let's stop with this ridiculous myth, and let kids get involved in important issues at a younger age. Recognize that and embrace it. And make it lifelong.

Q: 
A: I'm not good at process. Process is good when you need consistency. Literally process is necessary for big organizations.
You don't want guy in the control tower to be an innovator.
Complex society needs a stable, well run organization.
But you have to keep a balance.
How does new stuff happen?
No matter how big companies are. They get toppled by 3 guys in a garage. They didn't have a process.
When whatever they are doing becomes something the world needs - you need stability.
Key is to know when to have process.
Some environments where it is beneficial to have free spirit and surprises.
I did not want to get to a point where you have process.
Most big companies are very efficient, not effective at getting new things to happen.
They have manuals.
When something stupid thing happens: someone says, let's make a rule.
\"Use good judgement\" whole philosophy.
Treat people fairly - not equally.
Not interested in winning a popularity contest.
I fight like hell to keep process out of what we do.
Exercise good judgement - kind of the opposite of process.

Q: If 20,000 slingshots get produced, cost down to $1-2,000.
Nothing made of expensium or unobtainium. It is machining. We make them one at a time from scratch. Nothing about them that is production.

Rob Nail: DIY?
Allow modular kits.

10:02
Peter- say a thank you. Few minutes of one on one.

Thank you.

=== end

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul15-Genomics
"7/15/2010 
Thursday 
7:30 - 9:00 pm 
Genomics discusson with Dan Vorhaus

- A Lawyer's Guide to the Personal Genomics Landscape

Best guy to discuss tangled issues.
8:05 [applause]
Will leave slides.
This is not a slide/powerpoint friendly place.
I talk to fairly different audiences a lo of the time.
Shout out if there are things you'd like to talk about.
We'll start.
Everyone is doing 23andMe.

- A Guide to the Guide
Need and Speed

- Need: From Personal Genomics to Personal Health
Code to the book of life idea is 10 years old
G by E - phenotypes - how to produce traits. These complex interactions.
Very rich tools, bringing information sources together.

- Speed: 
Declining cost. Updated Feb/March - already out of date.
$1000 genome. That is not fully loaded.
6 billion base pairs
550,000 SNPs.

JG: $7 for bovine markers.

In silico.

Luke: If you pay for it as soon as it comes available, have to pay for it again when epigenetics come on.

You will probably pay for it several times.
Some now.
Copy number variation.
Inversions.
Quality of genomes will increase.
Proteome.
Lee Hood from Institute for Systems Biology.
http://www.systemsbiology.org/scientists_and_research/faculty_groups/Hood_Group/Profile 

Part of annual check up: height, weight, draw blood and do sequencing.

- Mapping the Landscape
Couple of good rough categories
Clinical
Research
Consumer
Unintended

First three defined by application and mode of delivery.
Inform clinical medical care.
Some genome seq now is aimed at improving outcomes for patients.
Looking in research G by E - tease out relationships between genes and traits.
Mode of delivery is extremely variable now.
For a long time, it was 
The Immortal Life of H L
http://www.amazon.com/Immortal-Life-Henrietta-Lacks/dp/1400052173

Doctors doing what they thought was in the best interests of their patients without telling them what was going on.

IRB - 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institutional_review_board

Research participants agree to volunteer.
Researchers get information.
Subjects don't get much out of it.
That is starting to change.
Asked, as you signed up for 23andMe if you wanted to be part of research?
[more than half said yes]
Another example, for last 5 years. Personal Genome - George Church at Harvard
http://www.personalgenomes.org/

That is all new in genomic research.
Should patients have a \"right\" to get that information back?
So, who thinks it should NOT be a right? Why? Downsides, risks?

MG: I think the biggest case has to do with minority peoples. Their information may be disputed.
Havasupai indians.
Northern rim of Grand Canyon.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Havasupai

After Havasupai litigation, Native Americans wary of genetic research
\u201cThe challenge is designing informed
consent processes for a diverse population,\u201d
she says. \u201cIn the case of long-term
genetic studies, it\u2019s hard for most people
to give meaningful consent up front.\u201d
Dr. Edwards offers some suggestions
for giving study subjects more control
over their DNA without asking each subject
for permission to use DNA before
every study. One recommendation is a
tiered consent process akin to what the
Massachusetts newborn screening program
uses. Researchers can give subjects a
choice of consenting to use of DNA for a
particular study or disease, for other
research, or for storing the DNA for
future use. Or researchers could simply
ask people if they want to be re-consented
for future use of DNA or not.
She believes that researchers have an
obligation to be transparent. \u201cThe more
open we are, the more trust we get,\u201d she
says, suggesting that researchers reframe
their thinking about the informed consent
process. Rather than looking at it as a
time-consuming task, she recommends
viewing it as \u201ca chance to build relationships
with subjects and to teach them
about the goals of genetic research.\u201d
DOI 10.1002/ajmg.a.335
http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/123562542/abstract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0

MG: Is it genes or the land? The dirt makes you as much as the DNA?

Bryce: [please type up your comment here Bryce]

Luke: Collective ownership with your extended family.

Extremely tricky.
Havasupai - who am I.
Familiar DNA. Very difficult question to ask and to answer.
Is my right to know and to publish, to benefit society and trump other people's right not to know.

Right to know vs let's say, my identical twin's right not to know.

Bryce: Maybe problematic to frame rights trumping. Obligation to respect someone's wishes to have their genetic information NOT revealed to me.

Transitions nicely into privacy.
Research, genetic information coming back to pharma companies.
You have to put it out there. To check your work.
De-identified. Anonymization
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymity

But, statistical tools, combined with other data sources, you can re-identify data.
Same thing with financial data - people just get sloppy and careless.
You leave information on an FTP server.
Leave FAX in the garbage.
Millions of medical records get de-(de-)identified.

Ray: And someone leaving out a pizza crust.

- At the Doctor's Office
BRACAnalysis
http://www.myriad.com/products/bracanalysis.php

- In the Living Room
deCODE
http://www.genomicslawreport.com/index.php/2010/05/11/pathway-walgreens-and-dtc-regulation/

- Caution (Buyer Beware)

- In the Classroom

- In the Locker Room
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/22/sports/baseball/22dna.html

- When you least expect it
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/09/us/09sleeper.html
CODIS
Crime scene material. Might be perp, might not be.
http://www.fbi.gov/hq/lab/html/codis1.htm

The innocence project
http://www.innocenceproject.org/

For sleeper, they matched his son.
Partial match - had this guy on surveillance. Grabbed crust of pizza. Matched it to crime scene.
Can lead to suspicion of people - http://www.aclu.org/key-issues

10% paternity mistaken
[ http://sexualhealth.e-healthsource.com/index.php?p=news1&id=532176 findings should help squelch the long-standing myth, promulgated over the last few decades, that more than 10 percent of all fathers are unknowingly raising children who are not biologically their own. ]

- How the Personal Genomics Landscape Sometimes Appears
- What, Me Worry?

Some sort of sci-fi stuff.
Cloning

Law is concerned with lifestyle decisions and medical decisions.
People preemptively have their breasts removed if predisposed to breast cancer.

- Guide to the Guide - The Law as Laggard: Why Novel Technologies Mean Uncertainty Reigns

Q: David Dell: Guardian's use information of termination of life 
Private information to you or after your death.

We have health care power of attorney, including rights to genetic information in medical records.
People have living wills. Important to have - otherwise, can be complicated.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terri_Schiavo_case

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_Information_Nondiscrimination_Act

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cardiomyopathy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reggie_Lewis

Lewis suffered sudden cardiac death on the basketball court at an off-season practice on July 27, 1993

FDA proposal to regulate as a medical device. Are genetic tests like a thermometer or something new?

State level bill proposed, Senator Padilla at 23andMe policy forum:
https://www.23andme.com/about/policy/
https://23andme.https.internapcdn.net/res/5642/pdf/23andMe_Policy_Forum_Agenda_v4.pdf
Genomics and the Consumer:
The Present and Future of Personalized Medicine\u201d
July 14, 2010 \uf0ad Hyatt Regency San Francisco Airport
Registration (8:45 \u2013 9:30)
Opening Remarks (9:30 \u2013 9:40)
California State Senator Alex Padilla

I used to write Java for a living. 
If I wrote program and it broke, hopefully it was on the dev site. Worst was that people missed a flight.
With pharma - make a mistake, people die.

Q: PhD in computational biology now. Can't replicate. May be serious flaws.
Separating diagnosis from treatment is really important.

A: Exactly what FDA is worried about now. How do you verify the associations. 
You could lower this risk if you take out part of your breast.
BUT if that test is wrong ...
Example we've had in play for a long time. We've had that test.
Put some hurdles in the way of tests like we do with pharma products ...

Q: ... a lot of potential uses we don't see right now.
A: No uniform policy. Governed by terms of use.

http://www.decode.com/
Went bankrupt.
[ Really?
http://www.decode.com/news/
Recent press releases

July 12, 2010
deCODE Discovers Genetic Risk Factor Linking Susceptibility to Four Major Vascular Diseases ]

A Genetics Company Fails, Its Research Too Complex
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/18/business/18gene.html

Marko: In Europe No people threatened. Impact is to start living healthier. A positive thing. I agree that it needs to be regulated.

Persuasive. Gets them more involved. You want to encourage participatory medicine.
Policy makers don't have that information.
We don't want to get blamed,
we don't know, 
better put the brakes on.

Derek: 30 seconds on personal medical regulation going? Verisight.

Clinical oncology - 
a/ most of us in the room are really serious exposed in near term
prevalance of cancer is high - you or a family member - someone will get test to assist in treatment, long term. Increasingly common. That's where money is going. Therapeutics and diagostics will flip.
Major regulation related to IP. The patent landscape is an absolute mess.
Something like 20% of the genes coding for proteins (not the genome) have pattern.
Tests for cancer(s). 1000s of these claims.
Tests all these different biomarkers. Not a solution right now.
Threatening to arrest the development of these tests.
Lot of money if figuring that out.

genomicslawreport.com
http://genomicslawreport.com/
9:12 [applause]
If you\u2019d like to learn more about the Genomics Law Report, would like to explore opportunities to contribute or have a suggestion for what you\u2019d like to see us cover, please feel free to send us a message at genomicslawreport@rbh.com. 

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul20-Seckel
"Tuesday
July 20, 2010
7:30pm \u2013 9pm
SU Plenary (Al Seckel) 
The Nature of Belief
B583C

Al Seckel, formerly of the California Institute of Technology, is internationally recognized as one of the world's leading authorities on visual and other types of sensory illusions. He has authored over 15 books on the subject (several best-sellers, two have won national book awards). Seckel has lectured extensively throughout the world, at many of the world's most prestigious universities, as well as at many prestigious conferences and venues. Seckel serves on the Board of the Pete Conrad Foundation, KC Long-Distance Learning (Michael Milken's global on-line educational initiative), Blue World Alliance, and the Los Angeles ] Mayor's Clean-Tech Kitchen Cabinet. He is a member and contributor to John Brockman's Third Culture Group, The Edge, a by-invite only group of internationally known thinkers and achievers. Seckel is passionate about education, and especially thinking skills, innovation, and creativity, and developing ways to teach students how to think rather than just what to think. Recently, he moderated a panel with Arianna Huffington (Huffington Post), Jon Klein (President of CNN), Caprice Young (CEO, Milken's Knowledge Universe), Peter Hirshberg (CEO, Conversation Group) on the topic: \"Are We Transitioning from an Age of Information into an Age of Misinformation? And, if so, what can we do about it.\" He is a former teaching assistant to Carl Sagan, and was a close student and friend of the late legendary Nobel Prize winning physicist Richard Feynman. He is also the founder and President of a successful private consulting company: The Super Smart Consulting Network. For people who don't just want smart, they want the super smart.

7:44 [full house]
- Single Sound at Coincidence Time
One sense influencing another
Salim: Folks, if I could get everyone to take their seats we'll get started.
Welcome to everyone.
Peter: How's everybody doing [applause]
Just got in and it feels like being home.
Thank you for making this an amazing place to be.
Hard to believe we are half way through.
Hope you feel as amazing about life, into conversations that you don't have anyplace else.
You guys rock. [applause]
Before I introduce
Dangers of Exponentials 2 tomorrow morning.
Tonight between midnight and 6 am. Capture issues. Brainstorm.
What are ways to prevent, mitigate or get early warnings.
Biotech the closest.
AI coming down
Nano coming down in third decade.
Thursday at lunch. Those interested in starting companies.
Host lunch - Rob Nail, Salim, will coordinate.
If you are seriously interested in coming.
If really interested. [laughter as Peter counts to high number .... 65]
Hope you guys feel the potential.
I have gotten to know Al in many ways.
Wrote 18 books.
Helped fly S Hawking
Teaching assist to Carl Sagan.
Friend of R Feynmann
People last year said lecture \"changed life\"
Expert in illusion - he's not actually here [laughter]
Please welcome Al.

Al: Real honor to be here. Round of applause for Peter. [applause]
So, what is Singularity U all about.
Part is about transformation.
I'd like to take you on a transformative journey.
A technology we are all intimately familiar with.
The human brain.
It will be a little disconcerting.
What I'm going to show you is not an intelligence test
Doesn't matter your background, gender, race ...
ready to have some fun? [yeah!]
See the two inner disks out of phase.
Divide audience. Left side - when the disk is white, say white.
When right side - say white.
In phase.
Very very difficult to see them in phase.
Perception versus reality.
- Cover middle of picture. Blocks appear same color. Remove finger, they are different.
- Disks moving behind \"clouds\" - are they identical gray? [No.]
What is it that defines you?
What is most personal to you is your inner mind.
That which you keep private. 
Truth from falsehood. What defines you.
Here I am presenting you with examples of things which you know are false, but you see as true.
- blue and yellow squares appear to zig/zag 
actually moving together [\"no way\" hubbub]
- look at these two table tops, look different shapes. [\"don't tell me they are the same\" laughter]
- look at these two nuts. 
Look how fast, \"pop\" the illusion starts.
You know 100% without any question what the shape of this is.
I've seen them 1000s of times. We are all hardwired the same way.

Reality is that which independently of your perception and belief. It may be aligned, or not, and you would not know.
Two illusions, not generally known.
What are the illusions - I have to tell you what they are for you to be aware of them.
What does this mean?
First of all, it has to do with vision.
I started with theoretical physics. When we were looking, searching for universal laws. Scratching out little areas. Quirky areas. 
For brain research, illusions reveal hidden rules of perceptual system.
It comes to us so easily.
Seemless.
When this woman is driving, she is not calculating.
Trees are changing shape, all these things change, yet we make it all seem effortless.
We make mistakes driving ... as this individual unfortunately found out.

But most of the time we have an accurate view of the world.
Perception allows us to find food, ascribe meaning to scenes. Allow us to live.

Three frameworks:
1/ what are you looking at
2/ what is the meaning
3/ core beliefs

Underlying commonality - they try to resolve noise, conflict
Below awareness
Map to support organizational framework.

Very much the way it is in Physics.
Under all this complexity is a tremendous simplicity.
Fundamental laws.
Same structure in the brain.

Most people think perception must be like a camera.
Tremendous simplification. Your brain interprets the photo.

When we look
depth
color
texture
meaning
You can see the depth, you can be fooled. The whole scene can be flat.

3D - image.
One view for each eye. Semi-flat images.
How it does that is interesting.
Flat image is ambiguous.
Take a look at shape.

If black lines represent lines of sight, if it subtends same angle to the eye, will cast the same image on the retina.
Here you can see different shapes also cast same shape on the retina.
Yet brain comes up with correct interpretation most of the time.
All these fundamental qualities.
You need to sort this out.
Rules evolved over millions of years of evolution - because they work.
Does not take a lot of information to resolve ambiguity.
All it takes to resolve these two horse heads - now facing in two different directions.
Two simple lines.
They are context. If I place these lines elsewhere, it would not have the same effect.
You don't need the shadow, the hair.
Your brain will hook onto very little to resolve ambiguity.

Fixate here. Note the balls appear to be crossing.
Same demo. What to they appear to be doing now. By adding a sound at the coincidence time - you have sound influencing your visual perception - now they appear to be bouncing.
Brain will hook onto another sense to resolve ambiguity.
So let's look at an example - rules that operate below the level of awareness.

How is shadow used. Look at the trajectory of this ball. It can bounce or rise.
Now cover with your hand, the shadow so you can still see the trajectory of the ball.
All I've changed is the shadow. Note how that changes your perception of the path of the ball.

Another example of shadow. See the deer on the right is convex. Over here it is concave.
This image an this image are identical, but inverted to each other.
For millions of years, light has always come from above.
Brain analyzes based on where light is coming from.

Another example of shadow. Light check inside the shadow and light check outside the shadow - they are the same. But you interpret them as different.

Q: Box in top left corner, still look lighter?

This one is lighter.

Bump this up again. Look at color in terms of shadow. Brown and yellow - identical colors. [Oooo]
[\"I don't believe that\"]
Now that you know that, try to see them that way.
You can do you little paper cutouts and go, \"Damn\" they really are identical.

You know people parking under sodium lamps driving away in the wrong car.

Give me the mud of the streets and I'll give you the luscious woman ???

Figure over here. Impossible 3 prongs on the bottom, 2 on the top.
Nothing impossible about a flat drawing.
You have spent your entire lives converting 2D drawings into 3D objects.
You use those rules.
Even when you know, you can't stop it.
Common trait of human perceptual system.

Do it in real life. An impossible crate. Goes from the front to the back. [\"I'm out of here.\" laughter]

Q: Can we see this again.
Nothing more contrary than something that is impossible.
You don't readjust with a new system.

Second perceptual framework. More cultural and experience based.
What is salient.
What do I mean by tagging?
Depending on our experience.
All of us can tag this image - wine glasses, knives, forks, napkin.
Depending on how much your experience is rich, you can tell what kind of wine glass this is.
Know how a dog perceives?
Dog doesn't tag the objects - computer / TV.
But when I bring out leash - as walk.
Car door - go for a ride.
What would it look like to use in an impoverished scene.
You can see the forms. What can that possibly be? Your brain starts struggling to attach meaning to that.

That is basically the view of the dog. They haven't tagged the world as much as we have [so AI's may be smarter than us by tagging more than we do??]

I don't get the flames, symbolism.
Are multiple armed people, but none with wings.
Depending on upbringing. This is culturally based.

Magicians play around with meaning. 
I'm going to show you a card trick, see if you can catch the manipulation.
[video of card trick]

How many of you caught how he did that card trick?
How many of you caught that he changed his shirt?
She changed her shirt?
They changed the table cloth?
They changed the backdrop?
[video played again with all these changes going on]
[applause]

You can change gender. Bald to long haired.
They don't notice.

You've just been hired by homeland security - is this plane safe to travel on?
[No]
It is obvious.
Still some people have not gotten it.
Would you fly on a place with an engine that pops in and out?

Playing music backwards.
Stairway to Heaven has a hidden message.
Listen very, very carefully.

Now we are going to play the lyrics backwards.
There is no hidden lyrics there. Meaningless junk. Brain doesn't like ambiguity.
It will do it with noise too.
Before I showed you two balls crossing and it changed your vision.
Now sight can change what you hear.
Listen again, now reading lyrics.
[playing backwards - it matches up!]

During the 40th anniversary of the moon landing.
I asked them why there had been no publicity about the hidden message in One Small Step.
Let me show you what I found when I played that backwards.
\"That's one small step for man. One giant leap for mankind.\"
\"Man will space walk. Man will space walk.\"
If I give it a clue, it will grab onto it.
Perception is not a truth police.

Sasha: Did priming devil matter?

No.
Send me sweet dreams backwards.
Played forward. Played backwards.
Then gave him the lyrics. He was laughing his head off.
If I gave each section a different set of lyrics, they would hear different things.

I am passionate about education.
Not what to think, but how to think.
Importance of context. What is being said. What is not being said.
context it the most important.
Make a case for anything by leaving out half the facts.
Especially when there is lack of information.

- Th Brn rgnzs frm Vry Lttl
[audience reads aloud]

Kids drawing. \"I want to be like mommy.\"
Her picture depicts me selling the last snow shovel.
Not a pole, but a snow shovel.
Our past experience can really dramatically throw us off.

Simple but deeper agrument.
Your past or view can keep you from seeing.

Same underlying system.
We all have different beliefs.
Bad consequences.

What is the third organizational framework.
Search for meaning - beginning at age 8.
Palestinian kids can play with Israeli kids up to about the age of 8.

Things that define you.

\"Perceptual Mapping\"
Once a framework is in place, things get twisted to fit that framework.

Lady wanted to make it rain anywhere.
Have you ever failed?
Where do you live?
Can you cause it to rain in Seal Beach tomorrow?
Two days later. It had not rained.
When faced with this direct.
\"I've been thinking about it all day. I caused it to rain in Lousiana by mistake.\"
When you think about it, the brain looks for ways to keep intact.
They are not truth police. It will look for anything to keep that intact.
Even if it is false.
Kept core belief structure intact.

Same thing when fundamentalists predict end of the world and it doesn't come.
They don't change their belief. They rationalize it away.
No amount of evidence is going to change a belief that the world is more than 10,000years old.

Magical and non-magical thinkers.
We see color red.
We map the world in very different ways.
Picture out of Haiti. After 10 days - this child was pulled out of the rubble.
I look at this. Earthquake. 1000s injured. Extremely probable, some one may still be pulled out after 10 days.
This is an example that there is no divine intervention - then why not stop earthquake in the first place.

Magical thinker - this was proof positive of miracle.
We look at it as inversely proportional to evidence, they viewed it as proportional to evidence.
\"No evidence for it\" Big disconnect.

So, how do we map the news. In all sorts of areas.
Personal relationships. We trust someone - then a violation - then you go Mel Gibson, or whatever.
How do we map our own self worth
\"Oh, I'm a failure.\" No matter what you tell them, they continue to map this way.

Perception vs reality.
How do others perceive you.
How do others map you.

Hidden belief systems.
When involved in creation science back in the 1980s.
It is a pseudo science.
Every \"creation scientist\" was a fundamentalist Christian.
No amount of evidence from the fossil record would change their views.

Now we have the climate change debate.
Harkens back to creation science.
Something happening today - people involved in a scientific issue at a level of depth that is unusual.
Puzzle contest - bashing climate change science.
Plethora of data - information coming out - you'd think you need a PhD to combat them.
But interesting they pick up a minority viewpoint - not shared by NASA, JPL ....
I start to scratch. In the world of science, no controversy.
There is a hidden belief.
Accept Earth getting warmer.
One they don't accept is that humans have contributed.
That struck me as curious. Why not?

Because, I found out, the climate skeptics are libertarians. [\"Aha\"]
Core belief - like the power of the individual.
Means government regulations. Easier for them to attack science than change core belief system.
Arguing about science won't get anywhere.

Whatever that core belief, your perceptual system will try to match.

All of you have a core belief system. I'm talking your moral driver.
Something brought you to that core belief. Early on or later.
Most personal of all decisions - this is going to be my core driver.
Subsequent experiences have reinforced it.
Now you come across someone who goes against your core.
Fundamentalist Christian with an Atheist.
Both articulate, intelligent. You decide to set it out. All the information that caused you to make that most personal of all decisions.
And additional information.
You've done it. You don't understand how you'd be bowled over.
The shake their heads.
Big disconnect. 
You articulated those things - they are not weakened. 
Not talking about buying Prius or Honda. Talking about core beliefs.
\"You know, after listening you and I am stronger in my beliefs.\"
I can spend a week. As robustly as I can.
\"Al, that was really wonderful, but you know what the Bible says ...\"
All those arguments I say go in one ear, get twisted.
Argue with true believer and you have things twisted.

Fearless with Jeff Bridges. Neurotic. Survives plane wreck. Traumatic experience can cause system to fail. If it is failing, maybe needs something else.

Where do cults hang out. People who have their umbilical cords out to stick in something else.
The brain is saying \"system failure\" come in with something else and they will become very zealous.

People don't necessarily think the way we do.
They may not map the way we do.
My wife was heavily involved in the mid-East Peace process.
What were they thinking.

Try to understand how other people map.
you get broad minded.
Avoid myopia.
Get outside your discipline.
Learn philosophy, culture. Get out in the real world.
Why people in academica don't click with the real world.
But people have never stepped in Africa think they can solve problems there.
NOT so open minded that your brains fall out.
But different views that have rigor.
Internally consistent within themselves.
So, when you have different belief systems. Look at them as circles.
Look at them as a Venn diagram. What are the commonalities.
Instead of banging on outside of circle.

Basic - every needs to eat, shelter, dignity, health, water.
We could use this in diplomacy.
Where are we going to focus our efforts - conflicts or commonalities.
In Mid-East - focus on commonalities.
Others are not resolvable.
Don't be cynical or suspicious.
I map.
You map.
We all do it.
I showed an illusion - you could be fooled and not know you are being fooled.
By being aware that you map - all these things - be made aware that you do it 
and come up for various ways to stop.

Thank you for Singularity University, Peter Diamandis [applause]

[\"Awesome job Al.\"]

Jack G: Under the circumstances you described 
Is there a way, as discussions start, way to avoid being galvanized.

Al: Don't argue about faith. Find overlaps, commonalities.
CEO of my company is a very religious person. We argue about what we need to do.
We had our weekend. No difference. It goes no where.
What do we need to do with this company - our commonality.

Maggie: Great way to do diplomacy. What if someone's core belief is harmful?

It is quivver. I do not have the answers. This can help us with people who differ from us.
Even in that case, look at the commonalities. It's a slow process. You can do it by overwhelming force.
In the military, you are surrounded 24/7. When you are done - you are mapping in the military mindset.
Same in a University. Surrounded by wealth and intellectual ideas. Come out thinking differently.
You can build it out.

Sasha: Emotional priming.

JG: Is wikipedia sign of hope?
Al: Commonality is crap. Technology is a runaway horse. No quality. Editors have been taken away. Good bad and ugly are all on a level playing field.

Need to teach people how to think.

Jose: Fantastic presentation. Philosophy of the mind. What is your next book?
Al: A book on this.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jun28-20TP-20Systems-20and-20Tools
"
Monday, June 28, 2:30 pm [Note - this will be in the Marshmallow building 583C]
Team Project Session

part 1: Systems Thinking, Chris Lewicki

Systems Architecture: 
Idea \u2013 Definition \u2013 Details \u2013 Connect \u2013 Testing \u2013 Assessing Risk \u2013 Launch -Support 

Lessons Learned 
*Grand challenges Panels \u2013 What and Why? Failures
* Issues, root causes of challenges
* Biggest challenges
* Failures
* Successes 

Requirements 
*Describes \u201cWhat\u201d the objectives of a target 
* Communicates \u201cHow\u201d details of what must be done
* Identifies \u201cWhen\u201d \u2026.how you know when it\u2019s done.
*
e.g. 1. NASA Phoenix Mars Mission:
Level 0. Mission Statement
\u201cFollow the water\u201d 
Study the history of water in all its phases
Determine if the Maritan arctic soil could support life
Study Martian weather from a polar perspective.

Level 1 Full Mission Success Criteria
Land successfully on the surface of Mars\u2026
Acquire a panorama of the site\u2026
Obtained calibrated \u2026

e.g. 2. Singularity University:
Level 0. Mission Statement
\"Assemble, educated and inspire a cadre of leaders\u2026.\"

Level 1 Full Mission Success Criteria
Faculty, campus, students, define level 0, curriculum, $ 
Assemble, Educate, Inspire.
Develop exponentially advancing technologies
Addressing humanity\u2019s grand challenges

part 2: Overview of research resources for the team projects, Kathryn Myronuk & Eric Dahlstrom

part 3: Discussion on collaboration tools for the team projects
[please contribute your ideas here, even in advance of the discussion]

We have many communication and collaboration tools available. You have had a chance to try most of them. Which ones are best for the teams to use?

Options include:
- Email lists (Google groups)
- EtherPads
- TP portal pages (wikis)
- SU Network groups
- Shared folders in Google Docs
- Shared Google Doc and Google spreadsheet files
- Google Wave
- group Calendar
- Chat, Skype, Twitter, etc.
- other specialized tools
-- Qtask (project management)
-- Mindmapping tools
-- student offered tools
[add to, expand, or comment on this list]

See powertools page at https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/powertools/
2 minute introductory YouTube video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3m7AeLAcgfY

June 28, 2010
15:11Derek Jacoby: that's what was up! Everyone is over at: http://su-etherpad.com/tpspace-Jun28-Lewicki
15:28Kidist: thanks

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul29-Yossi-Vardi-
"Thursday
7/29/2010
6.45pm

Yossi Vardi
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yossi_Vardi

Internet Cowboys Un-conference in Jackson Hole
The ICUC was framed after Tim O\u2019Reilly\u2019s famous Foo Camp. Foo Camp, an annual event hosted by O\u2019Reilly Media, is described as \u201cthe wiki of conferences\u201d because the attendees design and alter the program via big whiteboard schedules that allow for overwriting and rewriting. Foo Camp was intended to reach out to people who can enhance the company\u2019s technological intelligence as well as open the door for opportunities and cross-fertilization between people, companies and technologies.
Some have described it as a meta-birds-of-a-feather session, that gets smart people together to discuss technology issues. This style of event has also been described as an \u201cun-conference.\u201d
http://icuc10.wordpress.com/
http://blog.lizardwrangler.com/2010/07/23/2541/

6:49
Salim: Tonight a very special visitor.
Godfather of Entrepreneurship.
Almost single-handedly created Israeli entrepreneurship ecosystem.

6:50
Thank you.
Didn't found the ICQ.
I funded it.
One of Israel's major contribution to reduction of productivity of the world.
Introduced instant messaging.
I didn't single handedly do anything in my life.
Right place, right time.
Documented in a film - called Forrest Gump.
Story of my life.
Attended yesterday, Prof. 
Secret History of Silicon Valley
If I may suggest, invite him here.
SV started with number of companies,
Raised $30-$300,000. 1950's 60's era.
Just at the beginning of venture capital.
Most funded by military contracts.
Because of cold war - looked to take advantage of transistors.
This is how companies were funded.

Co-created in 1969, something similar in Israel.
Technion - like Stanford/MIT
Created Techem.
Big investment of $5000. Each gave $800 something.
Created company.
Then whole thing changed.
Military contracts not available any more to smart kids/professors.
Landscape changed.
Jump 2-3 decades.
The 90s.
The Netscape IPO in 1995 as watershed, big ticket investments.
VCs began to raise their multi-hundred million funds.
Once they raised funds, had to deploy the money.
VCs shoved huge amounts of money through the throats of companies
not able to use money wisely.
The duck model.
Put food through the throat of the duck to get liver.
People resent it.
Less popular.
Then bust of 2000.
I had the luck to sell ICQ to AOL in celebrated deal, 18 months after we created.
Revenues of $30,000.
Sale made me smart, tall, blonde, blue eyed.
Turned me from being crazy to being eccentric.
Until 2005-6, kind of nuclear winter, no money was available.
If you went to Steve Luck talk - interesting talk - reduction of IPOs.
2000 IPOs in the decade.
Since 2001-2010, maybe 200-250 IPOs.
What happened in the meantime, something very profound in the innovation mechanism 
of the world created.
Quite a bit due to the gentleman who just stepped into the room [Vint Cerf]
Because of the standard, agreement of people to the same standard.
Development of software became not only much easier, but became collaborative effort.
Open Source Software + APIs and rest of the tools
People created quickly new applications.

Changed landscape of start up companies.
I'm talking about internet applications.
Not aimed at fab.
Or medical device with FDA approval - still need considerable amount of money.
If creating software applications, can do it today in a much faster/much less expensive ways.
All of you are watching what is going on in this space.
Much leaner
Much greener
Much smaller
If we mention the duck model, we have to look at the fruit fly.
Reduce his diet by 1/2 - increase life by 1/3.
Same in software.
If model was shoving money in throat - created huge burning rate. Poisoned mind of CEOs.
Used to very high burning rate. Had to go back to VCs to get more funds.
When the company is leaner - capability to sustain is much higher.

I will share a bit of my own experience.
Created my first startup in 1969. 41 years ago.
12 years ago, when sold to AOL, began to see the light.
Began to make large number of investments in Israel.
Just write check faster than anybody else.
If you write lots of checks - easy hand on the checkbook. Don't have to be smart.
Invested in typical manner - very early stage investment. Burning rate was quite high.
Come March 2000. This is not going to change quickly.
Had to go and make a very unpleasant decision. Close companies with high burning rate.
Closed maybe 8 companies. Created a ball in the Israeli press.
Wasn't pleasant, but I did it.
From 2000 - 2006, not a single exit.
But invested in 24 new startups.
Due to lack of availability of funds, needed to do it in a capital efficient manner.
Saw, for this specific sector- software tools- you can do it very efficiently.
Marketing to the enterprise is very expensive effort.
You have to hire sales people.
On the other hand, if you can create viral products, customers become your sales people.

If I could find cookie cutter for 400 m downloads.
Globalized, unified theory - 400 slides - less you understand the topic, the more slides in your presentation.
Constant relationship - if you understand well, don't need a lot of slides.
compelling product is a kind of genius - Jobs, Speilberg, chef
Uniqueness can go away, become commodity.

1878 25,000 people went on special train to Menlo Park 
Edison illuminated his laboratory with electric light.
Today, you don't consider it - until you lack it. 
The compelling product is done by this genius touch.
the genius touch can take different shapes:
Google - simple home page.
Natural ranking by number of links.
Other attributes compelling to users.
Tried to find these young geniuses - what most people don't understand.
How to resonnate with the heart.
Not identifying - barely understand what they talk about. I'm 68 years old.
Sometimes press calls me a guru. Sons are laughing hysterically.
Have a portfolio of young, talented Israeli kids. They tell me - scouts - who is talented.
Idea to create a viral phenomenon. Creating Viral phenomenon is not trivial. Takes this genius, plus luck.
In my portfolio fo 75 companies, I've had 4 really viral products.
When I invest
when I invest in a company you don't know if it will succeed or fail, popular or fail
Point is you can do it today on a very lean budget. 
My company Wibia? (http://www.wibiya.com/) has the ... well I don't know if Somebody will come with different data... has Fastest growth in history of internet. 126 m unique users in 12 months. Accomplished by less than 10 people. Investment of $800 m (?)
If you would ask me a year ago if this was planned, it was planned in the following way:
Martin Greenberger, asked when we discovered the internet.

Internet epiphany moment? Chairman of Barnes and Noble - 2 hours after Amazon got on line.
Came home unexpected - found wife in chatroom \"Married, but curious\"
My internet epiphany can be descirbed by the cruise line when a woman fell of the boat in shark infested water and a man jumped off to save her.
Captain told him, \"you are so brave. What is your request?\" He said, \"I want to know who pushed me into the water.\"
We can tell you how smart we were but the Truth of the matter it was luck.

If you are in the trade which I americans call - an angel. The way to do it is to create a portfolio with high beta, high risk. If you use the diversity of the portfolio on your side, you mitigate the risk.
What is the barrier to create t
Greg Burns, Atalnat
Iconoclast
What stands between people and doing interesting things
And his conclusion is very interesting, the main reason is not that they are afraid of financial risk.
The risk is that they will be regarded as stupid. We are afraid.
When your are doing porrtfolio of investments, surely some won't succeed
Some will not succeed. People are afraid they will be regarded as stupid.
VCs don't like to go to very early stages. Makes more sense than later, when price goes up.
When I give a talk in Israel, I always emphasize that on top of glorious exit I have a list of 15 failure each more stupid than the previous
And on top of the failures, I have a big list of mis-ops - missed opportunities.
Second life on valuation of $5 m.
Avatars - Mitch Kapor is not the 12th wealthiest person.
Today you can create compelling internet companies with much leaner investment.
It's not risk free, there is a very high risk but if you are wiilling to mitigate the risk you can get some very nice results.
I mentioned the media company, ICQ, answers.com, spitbit [?]

Takes me about 20 companies to create one with virality.
Now my situation as an angel is better than entrepreneur, the entrepreneur can't diversify and mitigate risk
Put maybe 10%. Some tool can be created among the entrepreneurs.
If you have an idea in this space, that's not good in other space, with the tools and
With the collaborative developments of many companies, you can create terrific products with very reasonable amounts of money.
Ron Conway is doing it.
Phenomenon is going to stay. Puts VC industry in a peculiar situation.
7:18 [applause]
Salim: 5 minutes
Bill/US: Spoke about what you look for in companies? People?
Very good point.
First of all I am not doing due diligence. There is no way looking at an idea I can tell.
Much too complicated. Not only about the idea.
Business plan is a sub-genre of Science Fiction.
Common thing to business plan and sausages - only people unaware of how being made will consume them.
If I take business plan as an insult.
100% of plans say, \"terrific\" So what? 
Don't look on the ideas - if I look, I have to admit I don't understand.
Looking at demos - kid comes, best work. Bring to me.
I have 2 options - either I don't exhibit enthusiasm - best case, kid will say I am idiot, worst case idiot and conceited.

You have to fake orgasm, after faking 3000 orgasm I get tired and ask not to see the demo
I look for parameters.
Top talent.
How do I identify the talent.
Smartest guys - friends.
How long are you together? You know better who is the really smart guy in the group even if he is really quiet.
Somebody talented - so passionate - I invested in 5 companies - without meeting.
I invested in you - will talk later.
#2 Virtues. Danica Hanaman - happiness talk. Very popular.
Don't commute to work - following this advice will make you happy.
Surround yourself with people you like.
Looking for nice people - not to be regarded as stupid. When I am failing, I need rationalization.
OK, I tell my wife, consider this an extended scholarship. 
Lean. Eat their dog food - understand, be the consumers of the product.
Another 6 criterias - if I tell you, you will begin to compete.

Salim: 
Tony: South Korea. Thank you for your talk. In SK, not as developed.
Challenges faced.

Will take 3 hours. I have 2 minutes.
Hillel. Summarized bible - 
In 1992, kick start VC. Government created Vismah?
http://www.ivc-online.com/
Govt put half of the money, call option.
We take half the risk, you take the full chance.
Within 8 years, all of them bought the government out.
One example.
Can be a very good market.

Salim: If you were putting money into your region?
Israel. Let give other people the chance to do other things.
Local culture, community.
Regarding areas - capital efficiency - consumer facing internet and mobile.
Very opportunistic approach that fits me.
Because of the tools and the virality - get a lot of mileage.

Thank you very much and good luck in your endeavor.
7:28 [applause]
Lou Tucker, good friend, CTO cloud computing CISCO
Attavia Basetti - family foundation for responsible innovation.
Peter -- Social venture for heavy metal detection in individuals.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul8-Dangers-of-Exponential-Technologies-Part-I-by-Peter-Diamandis
"7/8/2010 
Thursday 
8pm 
Dangers of Exponential Technologies Part I (Peter Diamandis)

Peter: form teams.
Backdrop for conversation here today.
From last year: talking about exponential technologies
all the wonderful things it will do for us
also has potential to do a lot of harm.
Problem is we have not given dangers enough
serious play here at SU.
How much of time have you talked about downside
vs the positive side
[25% - 10%]
Exercise today is to get a gestalt. Usually when you have a group that is intelligent like this you get a good prediction.

Here is the exercise.
Broken into groups.
8-9 groups.
0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 are years.
I'm going to ask you in those time frames the 3 biggest dangers.
Nano tech in 15-20, perhaps.
All of you, every table is going to lay down 12 stickies. 
Biotech gree
AI yellow
Other 

27 stickies on each panel
Sorting exercise. Overlap them.
If you see something similar - concept of whatever it might be.
Once you do that - group them.
Everybody gets two dots per person per time period.
At end of this, 1st, 2nd and 3rd - instinctually, which dangers to be concerned about.

Then % on it.
Homework - regroup on 21st. Morning to talk about what are you going to do about it.
If those are the biggest dangers, what ideas will ameliorate,
block,
gauage they are coming,
know danger coming not do anything about it.
Fascinating exercise.
Track year to year.
Ask at end of evening - if someone interested in subject to really write it up.
I have last year on my computer.
What dangers look like.
That's the exercise.
Ask faculty and some staff - Dan, Salim, Rob, just to come up here to carry on 
a conversation about issues and dangers to get our juices going.
Open conversation for 15-20 min.
Then break into groups and take half an hour to debate. Fair enough.
Feel free to take a seat. 
Any other faculty or TF. 
Get conversation going.
Launch with one of the following things.
A nuclear warhead had control of a government.
That insanity would have to flow through enough bureaucracy that it would stop.
What if one individual could press the button.

Andrew Hessel. 
http://openwetware.org/wiki/Andrew_Hessel
Solution wave front outrunning pathogen wavefront.
Interesting way to think of danger and solution set, potentially.

Open up for conversation here. Please.

Chiara: DIY bio.

Rob Nail: I've been in biotech for 12 years. I was terrified by DIY bio. 
Cool speaker in executive program was guy from FBI
http://www.fbi.gov/
Must deal with threats to US.
Went to igem? conference.
Best way to tackle it is self-police through neighborhood watch.
We need to be paying attention on our own.
I left program wanting to tell everyone this was going on.
Joined every DIYbio group. Going to meetings. Following threads.
3 weeks ago, thread - extract DNA, create flourescent organisms.
How to share bacteria. Put in the mail.
Any regulations?
No.
Very conscious of the threat.
These are the ways on sharing stuff, the group standard on how to do it.
Be aware. Unfortunately, that's the future.

Dmitry: Cyber-terrorism. Smart grid. Energy flow of nations. If someone hacks the system.

Eric: Human hubris. Belief we are omnipotent. \"We will find a way\"

John Graves: Revenge of Mother Nature. Katrina 2 3 4 5. Sun spots wiping out electrical systems.

Concern of mass hysteria. Hologram projected in the sky. High tech telepresence.
The second coming (of Christ).

Biotech.

Peter: Bacteria that ate petroleum derived products.

David A: Who is left behind. Are we communicating with compassion.
Peter: Get what we deserve.

: What if we have already created a financial system so complex that no one person can understand it. Only thing in control is this non-autonomous thing itself.
Created a technology we don't fully understand and can't control.

Maggie: Adding on to that. World extremely specialized, public participation ceases to work.

Michael Chen: Losing consciousness in mind uploading.

Kafka meets Orwell.

Davidad: Peter Teal - economy ceases to grow. singularity doesn' t come soon enough.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel ?

Salim: Br

Peter: Robotics come of age. What happens when robots are so robust and cheap that they displace 30% of workforce. No menial labor - because, if you didn't, you couldn't be competitive.

Dan: We work so hard to create AI, AGI. If we create simply complex enough, we get emergent AI. If different from us, quite possible we will miss something becoming self-aware. An oblivious AI starts to optimize world for its existance.
While we work on all our theories. I kind of hope we find out that intelligence is emergent.

Salim: Asked question - what system might become self aware - traffic systems.
Have feedback system.

: Concerned about - imminent. Use of biotechnology- plants- universally used. other biological phenomenon that will wipe this out - 99% of soy beans are one strain in the US.

David Roberts: Regional war.
Huge imbalance of old non-working people.

Peter: Write down ideas you think might be real. Follow up.

Dan: Think that is a real concern, add to that.
As we talk about biotech, solving cancer/aging.
When these things hit, they will be very expensive.
Suddenly not just a 2 class society for money, but a 2 class society for human beings.
If rich people can be twice as smart, live twice as long, run twice as fast.
Haves and have nots will be split much more dramatically.

Dmitry: Exponential ability to control individual. Information about us goes into system
so government will have full control over people. Gattica movie.

Salim: Your credit card company knows more than 

: Your bank can predict what you will do 7 months ahead.

David A: Manipulations by leaders.

Ola: State of mind. Body is 30 or 20, imbalance. People will become disoriented by body being different age. 5000 year old mind in 20 year old body.

Peter: Government's ability to regulate tech growth - can't set up rules and regulations. Reaction is to clamp down.

Salim: Add to that - we have lost digital rights management battle.
Ability of technology to ...

: Space exploration. Came up a week ago. Changes body goes through in outerspace.
Families, children born that can't come back to Earth. People who can only live in outerspace.

Peter: Called speciation. Small groups, geographically isolated under high environmental pressure.
Focus on 20 years. Very near term for all of you.
Haven't heard robots or nanotech. Just to get you going.

Eugenie: Data at aggregate level. May transform us.
Banking, activity, life. What happens if we multiply that.

Marco: Nano tech. By mistake, self replication gray goo. 

Tony: One fear, something like lead based walls, DDT, that we learn later on it is poison.

Davidad: Skynet. Also possibility of someone creating something intended to be self-aware that goes out of control.

David H: Rate of learning is not up to rate of knowledge growth. PhD - tiny advance. Will need more education, not supplanted.

Brad: Transhumanism. May get loss of humanity. What it means to be human.

: As we become more dependent on technology, human obscelence. How to build a fire. If a natural disaster, or something that knocks out grid we don't know how to make it to the morning.

Salim: Our memory exists in this device - we don't remember phone numbers. We don't remember facts, just use Wikipedia.

: Will lose ability ...

Shary: Genetically engineered humans, get undesireable traits.

: Tendency for modelling out risk. Unknown knowns. Tend to focus on information we've got, miss other big picture things.
Hedging particular threat.

Peter: Another 4-5 minutes.

Andrew: Gain edge over people. Push competitive drives. Calculation. More, more efficiently. Works at odds with what is good for humanity. May errode - efficient, intelligent, but eroded society. Making sure we are still human.

: Compassion needs better marketing.

: Resource wars over water.

: Govt may not be able to keep up regulation, society may not adapt morals quickly enough.

: Fed Govt not as useful. In Europe, govt losing power to private sector.
Getting to power with obligations. Concern is - if private sector keeps growing - take all power from public sector.

David H. Human enhancement for rich, choose everything about their lives: their body, their environment. What room for human compassion.

Sasha: Link to Andrew - differentiate information when everything is connected.
If we continue on trend from now, may not get there with exponential technology - deflating markets.

Bryce: Fear is that we have fears. These will prevent us from achieving what we've been talking about. Pre-emptive legislation growing exponentially.

: More people died from living in castles than castles protected.
Something killing us that we think is protecting us.

Salim: Truth/fact is disappearing. Manipulate a large number of people with fake information.

Peter: Last word. 
Dan: Things harm us without even knowing about it. We don't let children eat stuff on ground. All kinds of allergies in kids. In Texas, 1/3 of kids using inhalers.
Sterile environment may actually be developing auto-immune reactions.
Too sterile. Upset immune systems.

Marco: More sterile the environment is at young age, the more auto-immune diseases we get.

Dan: Unintended consequences of something we thought was good- preventing kids from eating dirt.

Jan: Global networks, lose culture. Differences produce culture. More optimized life becomes, great art emerges from pain and suffering.

Peter: Join table. Instructions:
Biotech dangers
AI / Robotics info
Nano to Government/Social.
Nano can go to Other.
You don't have to pick 3, but 3 is max you can do.
Someone with nice handwriting.
Phraseology. Get idea across.
If done in 10 min, put them on the wall.
3 per time period.
Will give you half and hour. If done sooner, we're done sooner.
8:55
9:20 Peter: Five minutes!
9:33 [big crowd around wall with 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 panels]
9:36 Please take your chairs.
Give one small example.
Danger of exponential technology growth. Conceptualizing it.
World cup stadium. 150 m long. 30 m high. You are handcuffed on the top row.
330,000 sq meters. I put an eyedropper, 1mm of water. Every minute I double amount of water on the field. How long before you are dead.
In 49 minutes and you are dead.
At 41 minutes there is 1 cm of water on the ground.
Danger is we just don't see it coming.
THAT's the problem. Biggest concern about these technologies.
You can do the math quickly. Share with others.
What you have done is put your concerns over these 20 years up there.
Take 2 dots and place on the serious ideas per time period.
Don't put a yellow dot on a yellow sticky.
Some are grouped 5-6.
Targeted bio weopons. Sort of range, sort of group.
Actually going to take pandemics - could be naturally caused. Can vote on that separately.
Vote on something that is not part of chunk, move it to the side and vote.
After you have voted, we'll pick top 2 per time period.
Each person gets 8 dots.
Drink your wine.
9:57 
Peter: someone has to volunteer to take notes.
9:59 This is the fun part.
On the 0-5
No surprise. Number 1 areas of danger: biological killer virus DIY terrorists or grad students.
Notion that individuals maliciously create - 36 votes. Or innocently.
Connor is taking notes for us.
Second here is cyber terrorism. DARPA concerned as well. Inability to retrieve information.
Issues:
Cyberterrorism.

[laugh]Ray K's movie release. Ray/Peter mind meld.

Number 3 - information privacy. The Trial meets Big Brother. Kafka/Orwell.
Resource wars.

Take away - as you guys are becoming aware of DIYbio, the higher the threat in your minds.

5-10. Looking quick.
Tie for first.
Enhanced humans/ undeveloped world reacting with violence to widening gap. 23 votes.
Widening gap between haves/have nots.

bioterrorism. Really the theme again here. Last year, we had bioterrorism dominating first 5 and 10 years as well.

Point 3 nanoparticles in food. Hidden effects on health. Worth noting. Latent health issues.

Tied for second. Lose control of financial systems. Has 10 votes.

Storms - Climate change has 4-5

10-15 years. Scanning quick.
Looks like resource wars ... 23.
Water / food / oil. Biggest issue.

If we group these, unemployment due to AI/ robots has 16.
Pandemics has 15. Threat of Andrew Hessel.
Emergence of Dan Barry up here.

Resource wars.
Biotech.

15-20 year horizon.
Emergence of AI. Systems aware without our knowledge. Concept of AI as emergent threat.

#2. Reduced cognition due to dependence. That we need to think becomes weaker and weaker.

So we have those main ones. 

Issues related to unknown conditions,
static society/overpopulation
What comes after 

Send out to entire group (Connor).
Send before the 21st with ideas for businesses, government, non-profits, memes, policies.
You had a long night.
Any questions. Comments?
Otherwise we'll break.

Q: Wondering besides pandemics, any crossed all 20 years.

:Dhuval: 
Peter: Thank you for playing full out. See you in the morning.

=============== POST-presentation notes

Instant Evaluation:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/a/singularityu.org/viewform?formkey=dGVzY3JzR3VFeTJjSElVcjM3REFpY0E6MQ

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jun-22-Introduction-to-Exponentials-by-Ray-Kurzweil
" important reasons to believe trends will continue - through depresion and economic crisis today

rent a movie theater (?) for transcendent man

we are the species that goes beyond

ptolemaic view - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geocentric_model

\"enough\" - book - tech is good enough now

\"what the bleep do we know\" - movie - http://www.whatthebleep.com/

\"singularity is near\" - movie - http://www.singularity.com/themovie/index.php

Accelarating pace of change - The Law of Accelerating Returns - vs \"intuitive linear\" view

The key issue and the thing that we really want to recreate in our machines is the ability to do symbolic thinking. The ability to recognize things that represent ideas and give it a symbol. And use that idea and give it another symbol. This is called \"Nested hierarchy of ideas\"

only humans have a substantially large neocortex - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neocortex

Neurons can only do about 100 transactions per second (~1Mx slower than computer) but the power is in the parallel architecture

Countdown to Singularity (is a soft argument in favor of the singularity / selection bias could be the first criticism)

Plot time before present vs time to next event for various human advances. Double exponential law. 
15 lists from 15 calendars to generate charts on paradigm shifts

Epochs:
1 - physics and chem

1 -> 2 DNA evolves

2 - biology
3 - brains
4 - tech
5 - merging of tech/humans
6 - universe awakens

Evolution works through indirection: it creates a capability to evolve to the next scale

goal of simulating brain and brain regions: what is algorithm/mechanism that neocortex is able to recognize patterns?

bernoulli's priciple: understanding is responsible for aviation - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli's_principle

Amygdala is programmed to take priority over other regions because we used to rely more on our alertness to danger

total bit capactity for all networks on earth - newly measured form of exponential trends - data from morse code through 4g

MIPS per $ - first coined 40 years ago by Mead
Moore's Law http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moores_law

exponential increase is not a \"conspiracy\", it's just evolution of humanity

War doesn't accelerate or slow down technological progress [when you look at a large enough scale. It might even increase it sometimes. GPS came out of US Department of Defense, eventually given to the whole world essentially for free compared to the astronomical cost of setting it up.]

transistors -> cheaper, smaller, faster (because less length required to travel to generate signal)

total bits \"shipped\" increasing but $/bit decreasing...

Nanotech: the promise to build larger physical objects from information.

Biotechnology is another, important, example: the DNA sequencing cost is being halved every year, growth in genebank DNA sequence data is growing exponentially, etc.

the first cell whose parent was a computer was recently created

First Self-Replicating, Synthetic Bacterial Cell Constructed by J. Craig Venter Institute Researchers
http://tinyurl.com/2bvwdpm

Synthetic Genomics | Options for Governance - link to good report on policy options
http://tinyurl.com/27mkvfj

nanofactory - MUST SEE! - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqyZ9bFl_qg

There are currently around 50 experiments in animals using manufactured nano-devices for different health-patrolling missions :) (diabetes, ???what else?), drug delivery

IBM developing sequoia super computer - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Sequoia

REVERSE ENGINEERING THE BRAIN:
the ultimate source of the templates of intelligence

You can have all the computing capability, but without software, it means nothing.
There are indications that the reverse engineering of the brain is also advancing exponentially.
IBM Moves Closer To Creating Computer Based on Insights From The Brain (\"cat-scale cortical simulation\")- http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/28842.wss / Dharmendra Modha (http://modha.org/)

higher level emotions controlled by cerebral cortex - irony, humor etc...

brain would take trillions of lines of code to simulate if you look at brain but the genome has much less and there is even much redundancy in it so it may be possible to replicate brain with less than 1trillion connections

Redundancy in the genome. ALU sequence repeated 300,000 (?) times. We can do data compression on that. How do we get complexity (e.g. in brain) from relatively small amount of information? It's through repetition

five parallel auditory pathways simulated

mandelbrot series - billions of bytes to represent as an image but to design it \"mathematically\" is only 6 letters
deterministic vs probalisitic -mountains and cloud generation in video. Brain is a probabilistic fractal

modeling at the right level - Example: modeling physical functions of pancreas is very complex but modeling what it actually does is easy

often the lower level is more complex.

eye extracts 7 separate \"movies\" from each scene

A ten year old really does have to solve a dozen simultaneous differential equations to do a simple task but it is done thru chemistry and is below our conscious level

conciousness is just another biological function (like digestion) vs. no, it isn't... there is no specific definite test to decide if a biological organism has the property of conciousness (The idea of consciousness as a biological function is a Searle concept)... 

ECONOMIC GROWTH
law of accelerating returns is driving economic growth

1 unit of currency today of computing = 1M units of currency 10 years ago

e-commerce - first 10 years \"not much change\" bust of dot com's

Internet was doubling every year but it wasn't on everybody's radar until 10 years later. These exponential technologies need to be identified. One of these today is solar, doubling every year yet only a few percent of our power is from solar so it's largely under the radar.

destroying jobs at bottom, creating jobs at top
creating more high-paying jobs vs destroying bottom jobs

last year ~4K Mwatts of solar used, total ever as of last year was ~13KMwatts - so last year we have used >1/3 of all solar energy ever produced!!!! - planned to meet all Energy needs in 10-20 years

\"computers will disappear\" but will be ubiquitous - online all the time

augmented reality - iphone apps already

continuous speech recognition - dragon dictation iphone app

concern of hackers breaking into software integrated into our brains in the future

graphs found in presentation www.kurzweilai.net/pps/kurzweilpowerpoint

Questions

To what extent is the Singularity desirable?
evolution is a spiritual.....

simulation of human brain: what will happen when you can simulate human brain?
\"super exponential\" growth

use of biological bodies?
backup brain and dispose of body...

explain theory of consciousness?
first step of replacing body with machines - neural implants - end point, completely non-biological but there is a continuity throughout the entire process. not the same as copying yourself?
but all the time, cell by cell, body is naturally replacing itself.... are you constantly becoming someone else? 

becoming john malkovich - movie - theme is experiencing someone else's consciousness

\"identity is not my physical body\" - what is identity?

humor can be generated by intentionally stimulating parts of the brain

religion clashing with technological advancement becomming an obstruction?
example: stem cell research - ray supported

AGI

Ray had generally positive view that the public mind would accept rather than resist future technology

Powerpoint slides (40 MB) link for direct download.. (note that we will share the file in the SU folders)
http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/KurzweilPowerPoint/

`

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul21-Dangers-of-Exponential-Technologies-Part-II-by-Peter-Diamandis
"Top 3 ideas:
Where SU brand quality comes from -
for now Google and NASA. Didn't know about Peter and Ray before coming here.
Empower students to do 1 day events in countries/cities where they come from. Say \"We are NASA/ Google\" Makes me the coolest kid in town. Motivates students here to resell SU.
MC: Really good idea. Who would run an event like that. You would learn alot.
People here would want to do. Who would want more training? [all]
Going to be valuable to them, give active component - brilliant.
Justin: Takes whole rockstar theme and applies it to speakers. Who could go on tour as well.
Michael Chen on viral.
Opening up the content at SU. Shows ideas, brings in other experts. Improves the content every year.
MC: What was viral idea there? 
Justin: Making this discussion - live - have people watch the process. 
MC: Passive.
Last one - prize for best one. Come here.
Money to support the scholars. Local talent. Chile, Mexico, India.
Get 4 million people working.
Like Fiat.
Salim: Fabio - 230 applicants. Each to improve the lives of people around Rio.
Implement Shanghai, Tokyo, 5-10 projects, each impacting a million.
Passive to some extent.
MC: Good idea, obviously.
Earlier - MIT red balloon - with a prize, make it go actively viral by bringing in winner.

12:09 [applause]

Dmitry: First of all want to say passive can be one of strongest points we can bring.
to go further, increase the value proposition. Solve problems we are facing this summer
and during exec programs. Implement solutions - improve internet connections.
Do Twitter, FaceBook - otherwise, not so much viral.

Discounts for people, execs who are bringing other execs?
Salim: Trialed it. Reason we haven't done it- people don't come because of the price.
It is the 9 days. Never see TED giving a discount. Premium brand.
Dmitry: Bring SU to the execs. Making the programs -
Salim: You mean physically.
Bill: If large number for their senior mgmt.
Salim: Actually doing that, a remote program in Brazil. 5 faculty and stack of DVDs.
Looking to do in different parts of the world.
$3 bn fund.
Dmitry: Viralizing actively - incentivizing invitation only events with founders or 
board members. Establish way to track.
Tony: 0.1% - person who does project - SU gets 1%. Pyramid scheme. 
Connor: Harness power of the media - demo or die. Very interesting video/animation
Media say, what do you have to show. Put on YouTube - all about being cool, easy to see.

12:14
Top 3. We have 7.
Emiliano: First idea of what Dhuval. Local chapters. Go back to cities. Meetups on exactly same day.
One speaker to video conference. Value proposition.
Local chapters can have - be empowered to sell exec. Get revenue share.
Salim: THAT is a great idea.
Until you have a local SU.
Other one. Build SU into a club. Pay every year to keep up.
Dhuval: Have a publication -a magazine.
Salim: 85% would say, definitely come back for a weekend.
Membership dues.
Lauren: Majority into local club.
: Name itself - maybe \"University\" can be taken different ways in different countries.
My not be feasible. Supercredibility. Exponential technologies EET?
Things cannot be learned elsewhere.
Eric: What is different - multi-discp, global challenges, exp change
Model the model. Inject into existing institutions - govt - other schools.
Salim: Package up the model.
Eric: Not everyone wants to be \"Singularitized\"
Salim: Great.

12:19 Next group. Top 3.
Davidad: Number one idea. Crowdsource admissions. People would be incentivized to tell their 
friends to vote for them. Who gets to be voted in. Who gets voted out.
Maybe grad students only. Reality show situation.
Invitation quota - like GMail - 
To get embedded / essential - permanent group - you don't leave, so you want to bring
friends here. Club where you pay to be here, singularity alums. OR you be paid.
In the future, if we basically have, programs we are developing that become revenue making.

12:21 
Eric: Like Hotel California.
: So two approaches - see SU as two separate problems - spread SU, maintain exclusivity?
Went down the \"getting good quality people into the program\"
So, for the exec program, money is not main motivator. Quality of network they get.
Utilize that - get everyone who goes to the program - give them invitations.
Not only most valuable but most likely to sign up.
If they get someone in, give them rewards - a refresher course only open to those
who brought in other people.
Salim: Interesting idea.
Giving value for bringing in new people.
Second idea - also invitations - website. Several tiered website.
Some invitations issued, or pay some website membership fee. 
Alumni only section.
Brad: Money, not to generate revenue, but to put value on it.
Lower barrier to entry. Person nominating puts in details, person accepting just has one click.

Carlye? Group. We want SU to be the very influential, world changing.
Salim: A secret society humanitarian group.
12:25
Erez: Cool viral videos of lectures. Portal
: Emotional connection important. Websites easily identified.
Website of 20 really extraordinary students before/after.
Erez: Active model 1500 people not into this GSP. Get them to work for next application
by finding next EP program.
Rand: Essential value thing - really hard - idea to incentive applicants. Biggest choice.
Give them prizes as the number. You need 100 people to apply to unlock the application. 
When 1000 people apply - get into videos
When 10000 people apply - get to blogs
The fee becomes smaller - $15K, instead of $25. 
Spread word to get applicants to maximum.
Salim: Interesting.
That last idea - get people to apply in groups?
Apply to get more.
Salim: Work in quality.
12:20
Alison: one thing that just kept coming up: credibility / values
Thought about what SU really was. People you meet. Change.
Make sure key concepts are part of results.

: World's greatest job video - Brad: Large application to maintain island. He gets
to go snorkeling. Gets paid $250,000 to do it. To get tourists to come.
People all over the world applied. Similar campaign. Submit how they are changing
the world. Portal - 2 min uploads. UN, Red Cross, helping old ladies onto buses.
People vote on the videos. Person who wins gets to come to SU and accelerate.
How to market to start with - exisiting blogs.
Local media, press, spread.
Not videos of people talking about SU, but talking about the message.
Salim: Voting - could be the SU community. Interesting.

Second idea: Use applicant pool to find more applicants.
Nominate 20 people who are good applicants. Good people.
If one person applies, nominate - mayby 2-3 will apply and do more.

Third idea: A competition for EP. Basically, SU has a competition of most
innovative business ideas, or makes impact. Companies will want to be 
most innovative. Get that attention and learn about EP.
Salim: Cool. Like em.

Chiara: Bring 20 names, could even be a way to judge the person. 
Salim: Excellent.

12:34
What is viral marketing - pass on, pass on
When are people most motivated? When they apply.
So hit that point. First idea - 3 ways in recruitment model
- spread word, more discount you get.
= embedded and essential - elite u, see how good a leader you already are.
Show us. More people, the better you would get in.
Cannot get in unless you get people to apply.

Other ideas: 
Raycho - crazy. EP on different continents. Some prize like extreme innovation prize.
In one event, cannot drag all CEOs of the world.
Lot of young people would be incentivized, bring to 1000 people, then bring to EP.
Execs can go through.
Also because, in Eastern Europe, want to beat other continents.
MC: Good job guys.

Say one thing. All of you worked on SU.
This stuff is absolutely critical to the team projects.
You are brilliant
You picked it up faster than anyone else.
Salim: This was a test excercise. Go back to team projects and bake it into those
structures. Wish we had this last year.
Rob: Heard about outreach - developing templates. Solicited that?
We are working on - go to local media. Publicize local media.

: Leverage yourselves and media. Basic contact info. Media contacts.
Where you would like to show up. Head shot. Press release. We will send out.
Be a way that helps you can gets word out about SU.

Sarah: Helping.
PR agency will help screen that if there is inbound.
Really hard for press to get content - if good stories, will run with that.
We do have a press agency if anyone runs into problems.

Salim: 8-10 talk about SU brand. How many been through exercise.
Teach how to get through the exercise. Core message and hierarchy.

Em: Reminder. Autodesk and screening. Once you leave - leave everything behind.
Leave at 1:30 parasols behind B3. Lunch is not in the tent. Back in Barcelona.
[cheers]
Dress code is casual. But not shorts or sandals. Going to corporate company in SF.
Make sure you bring a jacket. High 57 F. 
18/ 15 degrees C.

: Presentation feedback?
Coming
Bryce: Meeting to discuss student body - whenever we get back from the movies.
Please come even if you don't want to be on a committee.
12:44 [applause]
=============== POST-presentation notes

Instant Evaluation:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/a/singularityu.org/viewform?formkey=dFgxbkVmYV9iRWppMWpaZ1VTSGQycWc6MQ

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul14-Jack-Hidary
"7/14/2010 
Wednesday 
5:30 - 6:30 pm 
Special Energy Presentation: Jack Hidary
Slides: http://bit.ly/aPRNR1

http://www.hidaryfoundation.org/
The Jack D. Hidary Foundation was initiated in 2001. Its primary aim is to catalyze scalable, self-sustaining programs in clean energy and economic development. The Foundation believes that driving market forces to focus on social challenges is the most sustainable pathway towards progress. The Foundation also supports causes in other areas such as the healthcare, the arts, education, international affairs.

6:02 Peter: My pleasure to bring to you guys, Jack Hidary. Long term friend of mine, tremendous respect for. Please to hear from Jack.

H: Born in a Blackberry.

P: He has actually consumed 5 of them. His own power source. Sold Vista Research. Sold in 2005. EarthWeb - took public with record setting numbers.
Prizes. Electrification of fleets.
Innovations.
Serial entrepreneur.
Force of nature.
Thanks for coming out buddy.

H: hold up thing - level 2 charger.
Cut it off.
Will try to reattach it.
Word document. 
So long as one person in each pad has it.
First, delve into mobility.
And power generation.

How are cars related to generating power.
Or not?
Gas/ oil
To power grid - coal, gas, nuclear not oil
What could be possible tie-in?
Bring them together through electrifying the cars.
But how are you powering the grid?

Particular vehicle I found - at Burning Man.
A whir comes past.
So sustainable, it is edible.
The blueberry mobile.
Artistic creation.
Next year, Neiman Marcus took this and sold for $25,000.
From BM to NM in record time.

Ford Model T - MPG - 
guesses 10 , 45
Ans: 20 mpg
How many cars - about 250 m . Avg mpg of that fleet: 22.5
Look at that progress.
102 years. 10%.
That's what we call exponential.
this is the kind of progress we are talking about.
Obviously we've got an innovation problem here.
That's an issue.
800 m in world
250 m in US. 4% of pop. 1/3 of cars.
China 70 m cars today and growing rate.
If China gets penetration rate, with 1.5 bn. They'll have 1 bn cars -
About 3 b cars on the planet.

: We're screwed.

What are the issues involved.
Two numbers
US / globally
65% of oil imported into this country
68% of oil we use for transportation - rest for plastics, heating buildings in NE 6%

What % was imported at time of gas crisis - from 25% to 65% dependency.

Here is the issue. So you see here. Total is 85 m b/day.
We consume 20 m b/day. 1/4 of total for 4% of pop.
Now how do we go to 4 billion barrels
Lot of oil in the ground.
Was 2 T b in the ground. Can you get it out? No.
Total refining capacity is 94/95 m bday.
We can add refineries.
But for China, we cannot add enough to power 2-1/2 to 3 bn cars.

Nano - $2K running like wildfire.
Car in India.

US consumption up, production down. Peak oil in 1985. Hubbert.
If you have a half glass and you take out first half, rest is more expensive.

That's where US is now.

- Market Failure
Why have electric vehicles not taken off.
1920 electric taxi in NY - replace battery

Charging stations
Vehicles
Car + oil pushed them out.
First oil well drilled in Titusville, PN
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titusville,_Pennsylvania

Edison.
Oil goes to $1.
New cars - ethanol and electric.
Mr. Ford. we can make this really cheap for you.
Last we heard for 100 years

MPGe - because we are agnostic.
Energy density.
Lithium battery. Laptop is 6-7 lbs. Can go for hours.
100, 200, 300 m on one charge. Affordable. Coming soon.

Cars looking better.
Two types
Jan / Feb /Mar
No tailpipe.
PHEV - Plugin Hybid Electric vehicle
Electric but also takes gas.
Elec is a range extender.
Then you go like a Prius.

Nissan Leaf - 95 mile range
Big campus winner.
AZ, Ken,
Gets 80 m on one charge.

Chevy Volt.

Toyota - only 14 m on one charge.
\"weak\"

Tesla - market cap.
$1.6 bn.
Not projected to make a profit for 10 years but ...

V2G - 
Vehicle to grid technology.
don't think of cars as a place to use energy
Think of it as two way device.
If I at night, put 100 m elec into my car. Only need 50 m to get to work.
I say the following to the grid - bought at 10 cents kW hr at night.
By day, peak time. A/C on, computers on . Grid is hungry for energy.
Must turn on peaker - airplane engine - 15-20 kW hr to run that thing.
Here's the deal Jack - if you take more energy tonight, I'll pay you double what you paid over night.
\"Shaving the peak\" 1-5 pm. Brownouts happen.
Colombia - can't give enough e to everybody.
Rolling brownouts.
This is a solution.
What happens to e at night? Where does it go?
If extra, put it on a hard drive? No.
Imagine a solution - write down solution - a billlion computers with no harddrives.
We have an electric grid with no storage in the system.
If you don' tuse it at speed of light.
If you send it and there is no load, the line blows up.
Coal fired plant cannot be turned on/off. Doesn't work.
only have load of 60%. you have to ground it, into the earth.
Very happy utility if they can sell that energy to you at night.

Distributed storage capacity. THis is the wormhole. Connects transport with grid. Far too expensive to put storage on the grid.
Then make money on arbitrage. 
labs have looked at it 
Each consumer can make 2 and 4K per year.
Buy low, sell high.
Will this happen first or second year? No.

To charge Leaf - 4/5 hours.
Level 3 - 45 min.

4000 Mitsubishi Leaf - 220V. A few of the high speed.
Had certain usage. Added 2 more of high speed chargers, usage went up 300%, but use only went up much less. What does that tell us?
Psychological aspect to range anxiety.
Non-linear effects.

Rest stops on corridors - level 3 chargers.

We think : own cars, sell cars
Business model innovation.
Mint
connect
zipcar
Wait - I don't have to own the car.
Maybe one car, but not 2-3.
Move via zip. 
EV at charging station.
What if Napa, Sonoma - at origin and destination.
Think about ecosystem.
1 shared = 20 owned cars.
Mobility without having to have 3 bn cars.

1/ power
2/ mobility + grid
3/ sharing model

--
US
power breakdown
very small renewables
[skip]
2006 - 16 TW/h
What does that mean?
Today, 18-19 TW/h.
Say I have power plant that could produce 1 TW (does not exist)
By 2030 we need 32 TW/h

4,000 GW.
Capacity and usage are different.
If I run capacity, that's how I get usage.
15 GW is solar.

So, double solar - you get 30.
Even at high growth rate, stilll will have small renewable.

1.5 GW is solar in US.
28 GW is wind.

Asia will surpass

Critical slide here. 
- Levelized Cost of Elec for New Baseload Source - LCOE
includes building and running costs

What is happening right now is a non-linear activity in the solar space.

Companies 350, 10 public. $10 b each in China.
Under $1 / W within 18 months.
At 50 cents, grid parity with coal.

NREL - 42% using Gallium Arsenide.

Team in USA can bring cost down about half

Predict under $0.25/watt in 2 years

When solving problems, don't think of 16 -> 32, what if you have 100 TW?

Split into groups, develop business models - based on mobility, power generation. Choice of scale, think of business that takes advantage of 100TW world where power is so cheap. What is something that is now very expensive energy wise.... water (desalinate, store, pump, move....) 20% of energy in California related to water

Sell power at night? Buy it during the day?

Ideas: Deserts in Australia
Magnetic parcel delivery system
Homogenize transportation globally (water, resources, individuals...)
Mining asteroids
Waste Not Want Not Energy Management

Ask yourself, how do we get to the world of 
=== end

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul21-Transcendent-Man
"Wednesday
7/21/2010
evening
@ cinema

Transcendent Man
Transcendent Man is the documentary film that introduces the life and ideas of Ray Kurzweil, the renowned futurist who journeys the world offering his ...
www.transcendentman.com/ 

Ray:
Music was quite beautiful. That is Philip Glass.
Somehow Hugo de Garis got the idea that I am an optimist.

Bill Joy's article, why the future doesn't need us.
You'll see Bill McKibben. Shouldn't pursue - too dangerous.
Got notion from Singluarity is Near.

Overall, a beautiful movie just the way it is put together.
I think quite cinematically beautifully done.

Q: Is it a struggle for you?

I was a little worried there when Ray goes into the hospital - is he going to make it through.

Q: We had a partner. He looked - something happened to Ray.

We had him long enough to make the movie. Won't be involved in the marketing.

Q: Do you think it is a struggle for you to contemplate the consequences of technology?

Do you have to work at being a pessimist?

If you realized the problems, you'd never start anything.
Have your mind on a positive goal.
Optimistic humanity will make it through.
Painful episodes. 60 m died in WW II.
Social networks increase understanding. World becoming more 
N
B
C 
Nuclear bio chemical.
Still 20,000 nuclear weapons on a hair trigger.
could destroy all mammalian life.
Not GNR that introduced risk to humanity.
Decentralized intelligence.
I'm optimistic we will make it through.
Technology will grow exp.
WW II had no impact on this exp progression.
How quickly we use these tech to address problems - team projects - grand challenges to humanity.
How we avoid painful episodes. We are still recovering from 9/11 - that was 3000 people.
downside bears attention as well.

Q: Lot of people - what you are advocating is belief about the future. Directly
opposed by some - violently.
On a TV show - mass uprising to stop technology.
Have you considered this?

I think always been naysayers. Can't fly. Can't land on moon. Whatever you pursue.
Technologies today have increasing capability to destroy humanity.
Catholic Church is to embrace science.

Q: Evolution?

Ray: Did everybody hear OK. Am I clear? 
I would say a belief in progress is much more - 

it is much more the consensus view that technological progress is happening.
Problems are there to be solved.
When problems occur, how will we solve this problem.
Could not rise up against the machines.
Was literally a movement to smash the machines.
I don't think anybody would think that today.
Internet could spread intolerance, attack our privacy.
Not a mainstream view to get rid of Internet.
Discussion with middle school kids -extremely enthusiastic about FaceBook.
Create society of peers around world unsupervised by adults.
I've asked some of these groups how much the appreciate FaceBook - and they say more than school.
Very important to their identity.

Parts of environmental movement. Not completely against technology
\"Not advance GNRs - let's not do those\"
I don't think you can make that distinction.
Not many people completely anti-technology.
Pointing out simple fact - exp increasing
Can make many stories, some positive/some negative.
Even with horrors of past - life is immeasurably better than a couple hundred years ago.
Life was extremely harsh for 99.99% of population in the scale of human history.

I think there is a common consensus in that.
Mainstream religions are supportive of solving problems with human thought.
Protestant reformation - applying work.
Curing diseases
Overcoming suffering
These ideas stem from that progression.

Q: How did you settle on the story? Ray, did you learn anything?

: Don't know complete answer. A process that happens. I knew in my head what I wanted to do.

So, I knew I had this organizing principle. Dominant force. Knew I wanted to use
Mythological artifacts (?) in storytelling.
Entire other stories on cutting room floor.
Most transcendant moments.

Ray: I think the primary aspect of my life that I gained more insight to. The importance of 
my father. I'm 62 and it is still the only person I loved that I have lost that way.
Experienced loss from that very close vantage point.
The beginning of my interest in health.
Cloud in my future. 
OK, someday I am going to have deal with this.
I was 22.
On my future list to do.
When 35, diagnosed with Type 2 Diabetes - put me on serious path.
Personally feel I have overcome that- 
Not overcome risk
I have no artherosclerosis = plaque.
I did have that disposition.
Numbers were bad
HDL is higher then LDL.
Chloresterol is 100.
a little behind today- but I'll catch up when I get to SU.
Glucose - no indication of diabetes.
I have overcome problems.
Congenital heart. Cure for that was completely successful.
Still have biological body.
May have new challenge tomorrow.

Father was important for intellectual and emotional upbringing.
I still miss him.
Try to reinforce this project.
Keep these memories alive.
Create an avatar.
Just an extension of what people do keeping pictures.

Saw myself in the third person.
See in first person.
See for extended time as an object.
Gave me some insights.

Davidad: Critics focus on bringing back your father. Might be better posed as
an illusion. Memories - things not recorded.

Ray: In my conception, he wouldn't. It is not going to be a magical recreation of what
my father was when he was alive. It would become a Ray K Turing Test.
My wife got into this. Just make him with today's chatbot technology.
That is my conception. I don't know of a realistic way to create memories we don't 
have access to.
If he had stayed alive, he'd be 98.
I don't remember. No way to test those memories.

Davidad: Is that provocative?

Ray: Did I say that in the movie? I think you can do a good enough job that it becomes
a philosophical question. Similar philosophical questions about a Turing test.
Is a simulation different from the thing itself?
Some philosophers, Searl?, say a simulation of digestion is not digestion.

We have systems that do digest.
We have robots that do that - not at human level yet.
Not a philosophical distinction.

: AI and new AI? AI is so advanced it is creating new replications of itself.

Interesting question.

Ray: AI creating other AI. Strongest aspect of Singularity.
Strongest articulation. Superhuman intelligence. I will have access to its own 
source code. Can make iterative changes.
Will be in this loop of self improvement.
We don't have access to our own design - whole biotech scenario.
We can't make changes so easily.
AI will have access to its own source code.
Will become more and more rapid.
Software and hardware will accelerate. 
Not infinite.
Curve will continue past where unenhanced human intelligence can manage.
No human could design latest computer chips.
We need all these layers.
We all use these technologies every day.
AIs don't have the limitations they have today.
Can do creative design. Redesign themselves. That is what leads to the Singularity.

Erez: Will arrive whether we want it or not?
Inevitable event? Just going to happen?

Ray: Initially you said is technology taking us for a ride or our we taking technology for a ride.
Primitive humans created stone tools - to overcome limitations. Reach a higher branch.
We are very much a human/machine civilization.
One reason I think Hugo de Garis - very short war. Like war between our Military Industrial Complex
and the Amish.
It would be a very small group.
Not, check here: I want to be enhanced with nanobots, yes no.
There will ultimately be nanobot technology, you'd be foolish not to use it,
like some of our vaccines.
We don't get a check form today, do you want to use technology or not.
There are 200,000 apps to pick from to put on your iPhone.
I don't see it as a realistic concept to have this kind of war.
You will have conflict between different groups of humans, each enhanced with tools.
This can be more dangerous.

I don't agree with ?? that I am just an optimist.
I have written about downside.
Ethical standards - avoid accidental. Accilomar? standards.
Ability to reprogram biology could be dangerous.
A virus could be made more deadly.
Periodic conference. Acciloar updated. Baked into law.
Close calls. No serious accidents in last 30 years.

Not pat solution.
More daunting is someone who is not going to follow guidelines - a terrorist.
Some in a lab could do it. Not simple, but not that difficult.
Easier to do it than to create a scientific bomb. 
You have nations with many scientists not able to do that.
It is scenarios like that the lead critics like Bill McKimmon. to say, let's 
relinquish GNR - would deprive us of benefits, require draconian restrictions.
Wouldn't work - just drive elsewhere.
We have system to detect, spread anti-virus.
No one has taken down part of internet for 1 second in last 10 years.
Software viruses keep getting more sophisticated.
We need that for viruses in the body.
I'm working on that with US Army.
SARS took 31 days.
You could create an antigen based vaccine.
Systems to deal with emergency.

Lauren: one last question.
Emem: Thank you for dedicating your life to science.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul22-RK-evening
"Thursday
7/22/2010
10:01 pm
Ray Kurzweil discussion
After movie \"The Singularity is Near\"

PRIOR pads:
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul22-The-Singularity-is-Near
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul21-RK-evening

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul21-RK-evening
"Wednesday
7/21/2010
10:04 pm

Ray: Share highlights so far?

David Roberts: Remember close encounters of the third kind. Old movie.
People get drawn. Once they are there - realize the reason.

Ray: Translation of that - benefit of other people here. Something you can't really articulate.
Can you articulate what that was that attracted all those people here?

David R: I'd probably need to think about it a little bit more. Common realization that this future we've 
been thinking about and talking about to other people. It is strange to talk to people who don't know about it.
People here understand it.

Ray: Constantly there. Alienating. I don't want to constantly contradict people.
A Singularitarian has an understanding of the exponentially growing technologies. Does change a lot of assumptions. Does that effect the social environment?

David R: Lot of excitement.

Ray: Can do attitude. People who have actually done things. 
Make a positive change in the world. That is unusual too.

Kidist: Great documentary.

Ray: Remind me your first names.

Kidist/Ethiopia: Great documentary. Took me back to my childhood.
When you are that age, you think that is possible.
When you grow up, think things are impossible.
I'm really emotional now to come back and search without limitation.
That's what I felt.

Ray: The movie obviously suceeded if you feel emotionally motivated.
More than just an idle thought. 
Really is a route to achieving impossible goals in the very near future.
I am optimistic.
Four and five year old magical thinking- important to retain.
Question from Matthew. About - no David. Having to do with bringing back my father.
Would this Avatar have his memories.
Not his memories, but his brain was not preserved.
Lots of memories in our own brain that could be accessed in ways we can't access.
An AI could do that.
Book on how the mind works and how to build one.
A memory and how things are all connected.
Something very oblique.
you might remember something from when you were 5.
Which means memory is there.
Exercises you can do to find what is there.
Many memories you cannot access.
Lots of memories about my father - if I sat down, many would not be triggered.
An AI could go into brain and find them.

Javier: Merge minds with AI or parallel way to avoid AI leaving us behind. Is that a real risk?

Ray: The AI we are creating now - created for our use. For use by different professionals - shoe designer.
Not some lab that creates lab that will run amok.
Used for certain tasks.
AI will emerge from all that work.
100s of examples of narrow AI already.
AGI conferences. Not distinct from narrow AI.
Same techniques being discussed.
AGI achieved by AI becoming less narrow. Very much integrated into our civilization.
Doesn't mean we won't create a non-biological intelligence greater than human.

If you created on inimical to human goals, 
Our society is not of one mind.
Primary concern. Different groups of humans, already influenced. Will be destructive.
One - we have a lot more visibility of conflicts, a lot of concern. That has some effect.
Decrease in casualties from war. in Singularity is Near.
60 m in WW II. We don't have wars like that anymore.
Greater visibility to destruction.
Democratization.
Asymmetric warfare- democratization can empower team project here to effect 1 billion people.
But it could empower

Bill/US: What brought us all here. Dissatisfied by limitations. Came here hoping to expand the
potential of what we are accomplishing.
Best thing - the people we've met. Progression of ideas. We've been able to move forward.

Ray: Courses?

Bill: Great. Helps us. Ties into aspects we are trying to solve.
Some of it is emotional benefit of connecting

Ray: New friendships.

Bill: Less intellectual aloneness.

Ray: Explicit goal. Create a new community that will grow over time. GSP09 very close.
Will expand on the community.
Part of what we are trying to achieve. The primary goal.

Marko: Agree with Bill. Narrow AI. AGI have human attributes? Through evolution, certain motivations were fitness function.
AI will not have these human attributes. Will not leave us behind. Not in our genes.

Ray: A lot of our intelligence and thinking has to do with our bodies meeting its needs and desires.
Animals finding food and meeting all other biological needs.
Humans spend a lot of time doing that as well.
Machines, if not biological, will have certain needs to survive. But different.
Presumably less complex.
Conflict between humans and machines may come from that difference.
They may not be sympathetic to things they don't feel.

Machines are part of civilization. Not from Mars. These machines are being created to assist us, transcend our limitations, expand our reach. Really the frontier for machines is to master emotional intelligence.
No human can hold a candle to Mathematica.
Few chess masters can beat a PC at chess.
Being funny. Expressing a loving sentiment.
A song that makes sense.
Things machines can't do yet.
My prediction - will happen in next 20 years.
Value to that. Essence of human art.
Focus and concentrate that human intelligence into something lasting and worthwhile.
To some extent that transcends our bodies.
Transcends into the world of ideas.
A pure AI would not have a body - pure math.
Transcends biology.

Emiliano: Good you ended on that note.
Argentina. Hear you speak a lot of transcending as a verb. Interested in your view on Transcendance as a now. Is there, for you, something that is transcendant - beyond experience. You mentioned mathematics. Really curious to understand the transcendant as a noun.

Ray: Transcendance is the goal of art and science. There is some beautiful insight. That is a transcendance.
A beautiful piece of music. An experience of transcendance. That is our goal. What we try to experience.
For an inventor. Solving a problem.
See people benefit from solution.
Mathematical formula and changing people's lives. A transcendance to that.
Fleeting moments.
What life seeks.

Emiliano: Different idea of transcendance - something you cannot ever reach.

Ray: Can you give me an example?

E: Truth.

Ray: Platonic forms. Truth = like a circle. That clock is a circle, but look closely and it is not a circle.
Electron around a proton - must be circle = no, it is perturbed.
Maybe that's what you are alluding to.

Marco/Japan: Who will be able to make AI. A human or AI system, must come from self-replicating software.
We still don't know how brain works. Would be bounded.

Ray: Brain is not of a complexity beyond what humans can understand. Can quantify. Upper bound 25 m bytes.
800 m bytes. 
50 m bytes.
Half of that is the brain. Most wasted. Very inefficient ways of implementing.
Much less needed.
Not simple, but something we can manage.

M: Tools for that?

Ray: Yes. Key insights. Pretty good idea what these billion modules do in the neocortex. One little pattern recognizer will recognize if your name is all in capital letters, the cross bar on the A.
Another recognizer for irony or humor. 
Not that different. 
Actually the same. At a higher level of this conceptual network. More inputs to it, but the same recognizer.

So these recognizers must be complex.
No. They deal with lists. Work exactly like language LISP.
Initially craze in 80's this is the way the brain works.
You can encode all the thinking the brain does - turns out that is actually true.
Brain processes LISP statements.
Your face or irony can be reduced to lists in elaborate hierarchy.
Been attempts to code these modules.
Not done, but see that is something we can understand.
Not 1 b but 1 T modules.
We can only handle 6-8 levels without assistance.
We'll be able to build systems that have more levels, go beyond something built on a chemical substrate
that is 1 m times slower than electronics.

Tony/ S. Korea: Yesterday we had discussion about people with poor beliefs.
People not believing in climate change were libertarians.
Wondering, regarding Singularity, are distopians subject to core beliefs.

Ray: Great question. I'd be interested in your answer. I talk to a lot of people about these ideas.
Some readily accept. It's kind of obvious. Some people absolutely will not accept it.
Kevin Kelly cannot get his emotional and intellectual arms around exp growth.
He says superAI - he doesn't see them. Someday, but not in 40 years.
He says timing is wrong.
I'd completely agree IF I didn't think law of accelerating returns were true.
Small number of decades away.

He presents a gestalt against it, but no real arguments.
An argument against it withou making any arguments.
Are people who get it smarter?
But I don't think that is the case. Some very smart just can't accept the law of accelerating returns.
Not educational.
Nobel prize winners resist it. What is it?
What personality type?
People have said, more open minded?

Alex: Maybe scared. Jealous. Don't want to say publically. Maybe at home, in their hearts.

Ray: Consequences are daunting. More than people are used to.
Distinguish from people who have not thought about it at all. Say, well that's nuts.
The way Bob Metcalfe says, Why should it stop.
Some people very exposed to it, just resist it. A personality type.

Steve: What were your stages? Took you 20 years.

Ray: 1980 when I began to seriously study technology progressions.

[Sahal paper came out in 1979 - http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul20-Team-Meeting ]
Over 300 pages, new book. Essay. Will self publish.
Updates Singularity is Near.
If I leave it to other people.
I wrote 150 predictions.
Critics will write 8 correct, 5 wrong.
Through selection bias can give wrong impression.
Not always obvious what is going on.
So, I research each prediction. For all of my books.
Another book length document coming out.
Next trade book is one about the mind.

In the mid 80s. Came out in 1989 - Age of Intelligent Machines. Really finished in 1986. 
Views consistent with these views.
Not a community to talk about this.

Santiago/Argentina: How has your thinking changed since Singularity is near.

Ray: Hasn't changed. It just will examine in a lot more depth the issue of the mind.
Part is the brain.
Orignially thought of it as a book about the brain.
When does a brain become a mind.
I also talk a lot about the brain.
Intelligence is a distinct from consciousness.
Create intelligence that is faster, has access to itself, get that bootstrapping going.
That is an articulation of the Singularity.
Intelligence - 
G N R (Robotics / AI is most powerful)
Singularity is Near only had chapter 4 on brain.
Tremendous progress.

: About why some people are threatened?

Ray: Why some people readily accept ...

: People threatened by assumption - not special, but something to tinker with.

Ray: But man/woman are special because we transcended our 

: There is a specific type of special. Divine.

Ray: History of science has thrown people off their pedestal.
Decended from worms.
Not the center of universe.
Science has been working for 100s of years.
There is something special about humanity - we extended our reach with our tools.
Some primates can fashion tool to a degree. Did not start evolutionary process of toolmaking.
Fashioned one stick. That's as far as they got.
Neocortex - we went beyond threshold. Could create who evolutionary progress of technology.
This actually works well.

David R: Singularity seems to eclipse current space plans. 

Ray: Space is important just as science is important. Lots of technology to go out in space.
More a fan of robotic exploration.
Microchips.
I think it does spark people's imagination. Go beyond our planet. What animal has done that? [bacteria?]
We have plenty of resources here.
No need to go out for resources.
Will go out, ultimately, to find more resources for computation. In about 100 years.
That's when we spread out. Examination of that in tomorrow's movie.
Can we transcend the speed of light = wormholes. Shortcuts through other dimensions to get to 
far away place. Appear to be consistent with current cosmology.

We can see stars moving away from each other faster than speed of light today.
Expansion of space time.
Maybe you can expand space time. 
5-6 conjectures. We'll be so intelligent - we can spread to rest of universe very quickly.
In either case, transcending through the universe is our destiny. True goal for next century.

: Peter said, Numenta announced [about to announce] they may have solved how neocortex works.
Opinion?

Steve: Jeff just told us in a meeting. Would not say what breakthrough was.

Ray: Hawking paper. There is a module. 
What he put in paper - more realistic.
Numenta's work is quite intriguing.

Bill/US: To question of why some people agree and diagree with main thesis.
Partially end scenario.
Maximize / optimize universe.
Religious beliefs have different belief.
Even though they don't object, it is the end statement.
Not obvious juxtaposition, may be deeper.

Ray: Religious people say, I knew something amazing was going to happen.
As I said before ... let me back up.
Perhaps the most controversial assertion is radical life extension - immortality.
You can't say I've succeeded in living forever, since it is never forever.
Don't we have AI a million times smarter than people.
No one protests when we put computers in people's brains today.
Immortality troubles people.
We'll get there, not through great leap.
Through steps - science/technology would cure disease.
Vatican supports applying science to overcoming human disease.

Bill: Two different parts of the brain.
Facts / facts then emotional part - limbic part of brain. Actually.
Why did King say
I have a dream.
not
I have a plan. 

Ray: Very good point.
Lot of the arguments.
Kevin Kelly gives emotional argument.
He makes an appeal very successfully.
Capable of doing a lot of logical analysis.

Bill: Come from more emotional perspective. Why, not what. 
Might get more success.

Ray: Movie today was trying to appeal emotionally.

Tony: When you talked to United Church of Christ, I was surprised people were clapping.

Ray: Know that Church of Christ is conservative. United Church of Christ - very liberal. Like Unitarians.
Fosters different paths to the truth. No set dogma.
For those familiar with Unitarians - outgrowth of Christianity but no dogma.
I actually - my parents were Jewish, but I was brought up Unitariain. 
We brought Buddhists, Hindus into 
Liberal religious youth.
I took it pretty seriously.
United Church - is Obama's church.
Big emphasis on humanity and bettering humanity.
Participated in civil rights.
U Church has a lot of political organizing.
Not conservative christian church.

Tony: did you tone down you speech.

Ray: Probably more touchy-feely. Not a business audience.
I did go through my arguments. Tried to emphasize things this conference was about: bettering humanity.
Draw some broader philosophical assumptions.
Consciousness as a spiritual process.
More intelligent, more beautiful, more loving.
Moving to become more godlike.

Alex/Romania: If we know position of car and velocity. We can calculate where it is.
If we look after big bang, can we calculate position where every atom is after 3.9 bn years?

Ray: Two problems with that.
Different quantum mechanics.
Irreducable Randomness 
Things that seem predictable are statistical.
Each event is extremely uncertain.

If you study cellular automata - a New Kind of Science - all about c. a. is 
say you have a c.a. transforms squares.
If you go a trillion squares, absolutely determined, but you must work out a trillion rows.
Unlike the car -with certain v. You don't have to compute every moment.
Most of classical physics works that way.
C.A. Completely determined, but completely unpredictable.
No shortcut but to have universe to compute it. And it takes the universe the time it takes -
unless you have a faster universe to run it on.

That is a summary of 1400 pages.

Eric/Italy: Discussing way SU fills void in competancy, understading.
Exp trends. Population - the mother of all exp.
What is your advice in being effective.
How to develop leadership, competance to have results?
Advice?

Ray: My own way to be effective has been to do projects, do some specific challenge.
With a team that I could organize.
Get more people in your community.
We still have local communities.
Organizations around world being seeded.
Lots of efforts like SU to raise awareness of these perspectives.

You mentioned Grand challenges. A team project can do that.
Not all need to be in context of SU.
It does take a village.
Not one crazy inventor coming in - a group of crazy inventors. And not just inventors. Market. Law. People.
Group dynamics. Who can work together and make a result.
A lot of our effort - how to create -
started all with Alan Kleiner. That is his field. Has an MBA from Sloan School in organizational development.
When company does not suceed. Theyare fighting each other.
Problem personality.
Alienation.
Shouldn't be a lot of management to begin with.
Whole field of study.
How to make group effect.
Take time to assess effectiveness.
Have right mission.
Groups have always had passion.
Deploy people who really want technology in the inventing group.
Blind people in reader group.
Musicians in music group.
To really understand you need to really care about it.
These are some tips for a successful project.
It takes a team.
Raise consciousness of these perspectives.
Takes forums.
Can be online.
SU is a good model
It is not our goal that everything will be at SU. Model for other educational institutions.
If just model, that would be good too.

Two more questions.

David R: Virtual world so tempting we never return?

Ray: Millions of choices. Not as many real world options
If virtual world option - can go to Taj Mahal tomorrow.
Many delightful worlds only virtual.
You can be someone else in Second Life
Today, cartoon like - we will feel we are in these environments and be someone else.

A telephone is a virtual experienc.e 
You can't always hang up on a real encounter.
You can leave virtual world.
You have more control over destiny.
If there are all these advantages ... why leave?
A natural enhancement of real reality.
Will be AI's that will be non-biological.
Some will be indistinguishable, some will be alien.
Most important will be merging.
We will merge real and virtual reality.
Primative example of that is woman coming into teenager's room:
\"I'm just another window\" standing in the doorway.
Child already in both virtual and real reality.

We'll have displays in our glasses.

Sarah Jane/Australia: Two questions - dinner with Aubrey de Gray what would you eat?
Advice for us students going back to our lives, strategies for reflexivity - kind of aware of our role within this? how we are part of this machine?

Ray: Give me an example.

SJ: How do you suggest we place ourselves and our responsiblities and proposals projections.

Ray: On Aubrey - he'd have a beer, pretty sure. He is fond of beer I hear. I go for it too, prefer wine.
He is not a big practitioner of what I call bridge 1.
I don't want to speak for Aubrey.
As for what I eat - see Transcend and Fantastic Voyage.
Important to eat less. Not that many calories.
Friend who follows the \"tastes good\" diet.

Santiago: If she was here, she would be dead.

Ray: Try to eat food I really like. Other principles.

Marko: What about supplements? 

: Some in your pocket. 

Ray: This is what I have left today [pulls out baggie]
Down to 150. I can take less and it can be more effective.
See Fantastic Voyage. Bridge 1. what you can do right now.
This group looks young and healthy. 
Or maybe you are all 95 and practicing age reversal.
Age processes are exponential. Clogging of arteries.
As aging accelerates, you need to be more aggressive.
Depending on your own health.
And biologic age.
It is a whole lecture / book.
I tend to eat low carb, low fat. But generally emphasizing omega 3. extra virgin olive oil.
Legumes. 
Avoid sugars and sweets.
That is the diet.
Aubrey stays pretty slim. 
Probably doesn't eat much.
His focus is on bridge 2. Reprogramming biology.
Specific ideas about how to do that.
Overall message is very powerful.
As an aging process - 50-60 genes in mitochondria. Maternally inherited.
All but 13 of those are replicated in the nucleus.
mitrochondrial uses single strand of DNA - high error rate. 
They lose functionality because they lose structure
These 13 need [another backup]
Why not put these 13 in the nucleus as well.
I've been working with United Therapeutics.
Taking lung cells, inspect done correctly.
Cured a fatal disease.
Replicate a milion fold.

He says 7. I think about 12 aging processes. Slow or stop.
I would have high arterosclerosis, but I stopped that.
Plaque needs to be dealt with intravenously.
Aubrey has ideas, including putting genes in the nucleus.
Aubrey seems healthy. Seems thin.

Your other question was -- how to internalize these ideas, be effective in community and work.

Our philosophy, you can't help but do that if you have a perspective.
It is not a doctorate.
Each will come to different conclusions.
Awareness of exponential growth.
Both positive and negative.
Each come to some deeper understanding. 
Contribute to your group understanding.
You'll internalize that. Will effect your work.
You can't help that

As you approach your own work - have that in mind.
Awareness of the growing powers of technologies that may be of value.
Aware of dangers. I really think we need to pay attention to that as well.
That's the goal here. To develop that understanding.
Not just AI scientists.
Effects every field.
Musicians
Librarians
Supercomputer Scientists
Middle school students.

Each being transformed. 
National Music show - its a computer show.
American Libaray assoc - in about 10 years, all on-line. They thought that was wild.
Recently, that was exactly what the conference was all about.
Graphic artists - transformed already.

What is your interest?

SJ: Commercial diver. Performance in extreme environments.
Superivsed by Stellart.
Still exploring.

Ray: Obvious ways - understanding of the body, biology, reverse engineering of biology.
For performance. And to understand it.
Work to reach audience - communication tools.
Our educational mission here - create that awareness.
Back on 16th.

Salim: 90% chance, we'll find out tomorrow.

Ray: We should arrange. Tomorrow - fireside chat after movie tomorrow.
Be here for team project presentation.
Responsive on e-mail.
ray@singularity.com
See you tomorrow at the theatre.

11:34 pm [applause]

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jun25-Global-Grand-Challenge-Pandemics
"Pandemics

Singularity University
25 June 2010
9:00 AM
NASA Ames
Building 3

Larry Brilliant
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Brilliant

Mark Smolinski, Skoll Global Threats Fund
http://www.skollglobalthreats.org/
mark@skollglobalthreats.org

Nathan Wolfe, GVFI (Global Viral Forecasting Initiative - founder)
http://www.gvfi.org/

Corrie Conrad, Program Manager: Google Flu Trends
http://www.google.org/flutrends/

Don Francis, UC Berkeley

Peter: I felt a moral obligation to expose us to the work that Larry Brilliant is doing.

9:16
So first of all, the only one who calls me Dr. Brilliant is my mother.
No one calls me that anymore and I haven't done shit.
But I'm going to introduce you to a panel that has.
And the way we are going to structure this today. They are going to talk about something interesting to them in the field fo pandemics.
And then were all going to get together and answer questions.

I can't tell you what a pleasure it is to be back this year.

I got to meet many of the team last year.
Last year 40 this year 80
Probably met about a dozen.
Got to know what they were doing.
You have no idea how much you inspire me.
The rest of us, when we are talking to you, it is a two way flow.
we take energy from you. Who you are in the history right now.
Working with 80 of your fellow voyagers.
That gives me tremendous optimism in this scary world.
You are the source of optimism for me.

Think about this not about people who have done stuff coming to lecture you.
People who have gone out there and faced pandemics are going to talk to you so you can help them at
making an early warning system. Building programs.

Mark Smolenski will give first talk. And then follow on.

Listen to them not as you would to a lecture at a university but as
People yearning for your help.
Work that we are all going to be doing together over the next millenium.
First of all Coery Conrad is going to cvome up and speak to you
Corey is a manager at Google where she manages Google Flu trends
Spent last three years at Google.org. I'm proud to say I hired her.
She also works on the flu shot finder, tool that finds flu vaccinations 
Near where you are using Google maps. Before that worked Clinton administration in Rwanda
Rwanda. To support pediatric HIV AIDS treatment. Moorehead Scholarship. produces some of the best scholars in the world
MBA from Woodrow Wilson.

Don Francis

Infectious disease epidemiologist.
over 30 years of experience in epidemic control and vaccines
He started his involvement in India. Tetanus.
Infectious Disease trained pediatric epidemiologist. Worked in rural Punjab, India. Vaccine development in early and late stage development.
over the years his vaccine world has encompassed all stages.
His early work involved 21 years at CDC including vaccine preventable diseases.
In mid 70s worked in Sudan and [?]
Hepatits B work. After CDC joined Genentech. Developed 2 candidate HIV vaccines, including GP120
Part of team that announced first vaccine against HIV
Through GSID his team has worked with developing world developing Dengue vaccines.
Frequent consultant to WHO
He is a public health hero from U of SCalifornia.
Hero of the movie, \"and the band plays on\"

Nathan Wolff.

Part of institute to predict and prevent epidemics.
Amoung discoveries: origin of malaria. Virus jumping from non-primates to humans.
He is published extinseively and covered by Nature, Science, NYT, etc.
Has $30 m support from Google, US Dept of Defense, ...
Serves on Department of Eco Defense
Awarded NIH award
National Geographic emerging explorer
Recognized as one of Brilliant 10 in Popular Science. Rolling Stone's Top 100 agents of change.
Bach from Stanford, PhD from Harvard

Mark Smolenski.
Early detection of emerging threats.

Mark was director of prevention at Google.org
And served as vice president for [?]
At NTI he led development of regional disease system in Israel and Jordon
a way in which using the mutual need to inform neighbors about the present state of disease
Hope for peace.
In 2003, landmark report \"Microbial health\"served as advisor to WHO, secretary of health. And as epidemic officer at CDC.

On team that discovered hantavirus in 1993
Currenly works at school of global threats. From U of Michigan.
He got his mph from Univ. of Arizona
Wired magazine 2008 smart list of 15 people the next president should listen to.
So, a \"lightweight\" panel. You guys deserve nothing but the best.

9:27
Lay the groundwork.

Mark Smolinski
Seen lots of images
(pics of pandemics)
Take you through a couple of epidemics
Pandemic is an epidemic that reaches accross globe
Sept 1999 - what disease? West Nile.
With rapid transportation, any country is at risk from any disease.
One example of a mosquito probably coming through international travel either in the plane gear or infected passenger
So this is a disease we have never seen in the United States, started in NYC
Within the second year spread half way through the US
By year 3, endemic disease in the US.
Maybe we should call this denial. And I don't mean the river in Egypt.
Dead birds were a early indicator, zoos were looking at dead birds while health officials were trying to figure out why we had sick humans
So, I'm sure you have all heard about SARS.
One person infected others in a hotel. Accute disease that spread.
Fortunately we were effecitve in the world health community
And this was the culprit, the civet cat.

For those who don't know about influenze. We now have swine flu. Concern is
This is basically the concern especially in asia
The natiral path is birds but can also go through pigs
Pigs are a natural reservoir for both bird and human flu. Pigs are a mixing vessel.
SE Asia might have seen mild, fast spreading 
Were worried about a mild human disease that could spread easily among humans mixing with a deadly flu virus found in brids

Swine flu is a pandemic. It spread across the globe.
welcome to the big time
Take home message. Professor would kick podium. 
we have had 2 new diseases every year discovered somewhere on the planet
75% of these spread from animals to humans (zoonosis).
Hanta virus .. syndrome.
1993.
75% mortality rate. No prior infection. 20-30 year old. 
Interesting experience to be part of that team.

I wanted to take one example
Here is an example of the morbidity and mortality report
In Morbidity and mortality weekly, on the back of which has the status of the countries spreading diseases
Comes out weeky.

Shows early cases of HIV
Epidemiological curve shows cases over time.
Move scale back to 1950 and we see that HIV came from 1959, not 1980.

If we know these are spreading from animals as the case is with HIV
What does epidemic curve really look like.
because his work gets us above the epidemic curve and before they spread to humans

So, with that in mind, how do we get ahead of the curve?
Use a unified lens.
Some of the other exciting things happening is how we find cases before they blow up into epidemics in humans
These are just some examples of how technology can help in that space.
Tehcnology helps us finding cases of disease faster via sms for example.
E-mail, internet.
Others have been loooking at email,internet, newsblogs and so far
Healthmap.org Looks at sites 24 hours a day. Extracts news.
Through anything that is on the internet
categorizes accordingly and
Output to Google Earth interface. You change the parameters see the change and then Links back to orignial source of threat.

Now with new health orgs WHO has huthority to investigate in other countries rather than rely on those countries temselves

It is also helpful that technology has led to rapid response on the ground. 
I know it's on your curriculum to talk about what they are doing next month
GEOChat( http://geochat.instedd.org/) - communicate 
where they can chat and show geographical messaging
sms messaging to complete interface on a server
Lastly, I wanted to quote Sam Nunn. He became a student of public health:
who use to work at the global threat initiative
Regional disease centers are the key building blocks.
to preventing epidemics
Helped form in 2003. Started one in Southern Africa.

Individual networks are doing outstanding work. 
Extraordinary picture.
specifically the one in the middle east, these are the health officials from jordan, israel, and palenstine

All labs have EQUAL capacity. With support, they have been training on the procedures to take the threats together. BD - Beck & Dickinson (?)

has been extremely effectince with help from BD, IBM, 
NTI's and Search for Common Ground. And World Bank. Longest running of these various networks. They have standard operating procedures.

that opperate exactly the samhe countries
When they effect the Middle East, they all understand that.

In 2007, Rockefeller Foundation brought 7 organizations together to really figure out how we really are going to connect these groups together and make system.
Call to action: One universal organization called \"CHORDS\"

CHORDS creates a global surveillance system
Multi-community. Ministries of Ag, Travel Trade, academia.
[Systems thinking going on here]
So, feel free to contact me at:
mark@skollglobalthreats.org
9:43

Nathan is going to talk about how to get ahead of curve. So we don't have pandemics.

Nathan Wolfe, GVFI (Global Viral Forecasting Initiative - founder)
http://www.gvfi.org/

Thanks Mark and Larry for the generous intro.
When most people think about the start of AIDS. 1980s. but the reality and some of you have heard this already is that it entered from animals, from a chimp. Probably before great depression- 1929. Already a virus in the human population.
And one of the most profound questions we need to ask ourselves

Why did it take us so much time from after the depression to spot this.
4 million instead of 40 million infections?
Would we have 4 mill instead of 40 mill?
Prevent pandemics, reather than just respond. 
What causes birth of pandemic?
Most of the origins of human diseases are from animal origins
my Mentor Don Burke called this viral chatter. There might be signals.
if you could monitor these as they move from animals to humans you can prevent it before it becomes exclusive to humans
Even now, with exciting work. Focus of most work is too late. Engrained, will take years to root out.
one of the things we have been focused on is individuals at this viral chatter interface, 
Individuals who have occupational contact with animals: 
People like this hunter in Africa, this person in 
People like this person in wet market in China - this is where SARS emerged.

Costs associated w

....
9:47 
I was a naive post doc and work in cameroon, we will drive around and get all this data, but in the field its sometimes a challenge
In the process of doing this, we work with incredible people around the world. 
Here is our PI (?)
[Principal Investigator?]
Longitudinal studies of people exposed to animals
What you can do - a range of things. You can follow people over time. Collect their blood.
Collect from animals.
From our perspective the holy grail is to catch it at the very beginning of a pandemic, when their still in animals
We have them actively collecting these blood spots - finding viruses and parasites all the time.
Specimens become core of research.
You can certainly imagine a future where we are capturing these epidemics before their emergence on a world stage.
So, we have the good fortune of partnering with Larry at google.org
We recently dropped our initiative
Beyond initiating. Doing this around the world. Catch early before they spread.
Offices in Africa, Asia, building in South America
About long term scientific development. Many people with skills.
No matter where you work
Long term continuity needed.
Sustatinable programs. 
We have a situation where liquid nitrogen is available.
we had to beg borrow and steal to get dry ice from local breweries
Now we have what I call the \"coldest place in Central Africa\"
and what we do is have sustainability mechanisms. Machine cost $170k
exxcess nitrogen is sold to companies around the area so it sustains itself
Not sure you have had other discussions, but we are at an inflection point.
Microarray techniques
This is a 454 (2nd gen dna sequencing machine from 'Life Sciences' www.454.com) 
We used to have to culture one at a time. Now a drop of blood or water and assess fulll diversity of what is present.
Bit of an arms race. Key for this audience - getting out there.
You can accumulate an incredible collection. What you can find is that after 10 years of this workd you can discover new agents.
You can have massive [data?]
Document jump from animalsinto human population. Enering the portal of humanity.
Respond before they become global pandemics.
Some of the viruses that we have been fortunate to collaborate on are POX viruses, Retroviruses
This is to tell you where we stand - incredibly surprising that studying a few 1000 individuals you can find novel retroviruses crossing. New viruses from same family as HIV ...
Are we doing enough id there are new viruses in the same family of HIV that are still being found in humans
Resounding NO - we need to do more here.
viruses and parasites that are out there. What is related to HIV that is still out there.

Robert Huff and U Amherst. Study diversity of parasites.
We had counterinitive finding that the diversity in chimps is much more than in humans

Many many more parasites.
Malaria originated as chimp parasite that jumped to humans
You got some of this from Mark: incredible networks and partnerships.
US Govt and around the world.
International organizations. Lead scientsist: Joseph Fair. VLS4? Keying into WHO.

What now? One thing, not fundamental
But I htink is very important
actual work to go out and prevent pandemics
We know on basic level that pandemics start with animal diseases
that cross over into human populations
How can we increase health of hunting practices?
to decrease the frequency of crossover
Other thing, how to use cell phones? This has been amazing.
One collegue,

studying monkey pox. Her site is in one of the Most remote place on the planet. Must fly in.
Boat takes weeks. Can only get there during the rainy season.
What you find are Cell towers and people with mobile phones there.
In night markets lit by kerosene lights
Someone with a genreator Selling cell phone charge for a few pennies.
Animal die offs. Proceed Ebola. Thing we could potentially cover. when are people becoming ill
Exciting to have digital epidemiology.Heard of world health maps that are aaggregating data but what we need is
Groundtruthing of that.

For this audience, we exist at this really exciting time.
Time iflled with incredible challenges
the pandemics we face are absolutely incredible
Do not be deceived by press about H1N1.
We got lucky with this thing, we weren't on top of it and controlled it's spread
It spread on its own. Had it been nominally worse, it would be all we talked aobut now.
If it had turned up even nominally it would be the only thing that we are talking about right now.
Viruses, bacteria, archae(?)
10:01

Corrie Conrad, Program Manager: Google.org Flu Trends
http://www.google.org/flutrends/

Google.org is the philanthropic arm of Google

Program manager. Use strength for
Today talking about Google flu trends which has been mentioned a few times today but I'll get into the nitty gritty
Publication in Nature in 2008.
Highlight - neat thing: came out of cross functional brainstorming.
You've heard from disease experts
We have strength of software engineers. + statisticians + 
you can come up with novel stuff
thinking crosss functionally
is a real strength.
can be challenging but yields great results.
Based on anonymized search queries.
data is available to download
Much can be done beyond our team. Mash ups of flu trends with vaccinations
or whether or travel patterns, if you have data make it available and
Take advantage of data that is available.

Doesn't replace disease surveillance, just an additional tool to provide estimates
We can't tell H1N1 from other flu types.
Aggregated search results correspond very well.
Influenza happens every year.
Seasonal flu affects people every year, hundreds of thousands die every year
So,we had a hunch that there might be a signal we could detect.
90 million people were searching for health information a couple of years ago.
Data provided in real time.
Computational ability 
to process massive loads of data quickly is a
Unique advange.

What do we do with that information? How do we guess what they might be searching for?
how do we guess what people might be searching for
can we build a model using that information

Search users are not doctors, so the terms they use are creative. If Britney Spears gets flu - more activity.
How do we take those things into account?
See the Nature paper at Google Flu Trends .[LINK HERE]

basically what we did is take this massiv db and were agnostic with what would correlate with key terms
build database of weekly search queries of every query string
This is what a seasonal flu pattern might look like. Spike in Northern hemisphere. Nice seasonal pattern happening every year.
Let's just throw this at the database and see what matches
and see what queries match the pattern

[pointing at slide of...]
We get all these queries that come together and look at list.
Which match best? Which queries have highest correlation
Sigh of relief. Top 45 were all related:
symptoms
complications
You see this fall off - query 81. Oscar nominations. Not included in model.
For US in 2008. 
Sum top 45 to get predictive variables. 
Variety of topics -
remedies
anti-virals
different ways of saying influenza
CDC data comes in 1 to 2 weeks. Over 1000 physicians.
get data from the patients that they see and send the data into the CDC, takes 1-2 weeks
We are watching, hoping to see that CDC shows inflection point and, sure enough, we were 2 weeks earlier than CDC. This was the starting point in Nov 2008.
We had no idea H1N1 would hit the world stage.
Out timing was uncanny because it allowed us to work with
Helped us work with public health officials at a very crucial time.
data available arround the world
US is the only country where we have city level data. Most at national or province level.
Engineers really like DATA. Tabular CSV data. 
H1N1 and CDC collaboration. 
April 2009 we got a call from friends at CDC, are you lookiing at Mexico what are you seeing?
We built experimental model. Not official data in Mexico. Not sure how to build without this data. We had been doing reasearch for spanish speaking. What we did was take US queries, translated them. We did discover an uptick in April, a little before. Could be useful indicator. Pattern had seasonal curve. Confidence test for us So we launched in 2009.
we quickly looked at southern hemisphere countries
It is always \"flu-o'clock\" somewhere.
New Zealand ...
we had data from new zealand and were able to launch a model for that and australia
[graph showing 2009 flu season versus 2010]
last year there was already a lot of flu activity in New Zealand than this year.
As of yesterday, we added Google Earth layer. Animation of data over time with feedback from public health officials: 
would be really great if we could see how this moves over time
Put out as informational tool for the public.
But it's public health officials that will be able to act on this in a big way
The public health official, WHO influenza center provided health data that validated this model.
National Institue for Health does. Highlight PH message. People should follow it.
[animation of flu queries on Google Earth]
You can see activity as we head into fall ... see it spread through Europe. Will continue through June of this year. In other hemisphere you would see it there.

Graph shows very strong correlation with offical data
Thing we hae learned:
H1N1. 
We don't differentiate sub types
will you pick up on H1N1, no historical data existed
Weren't sure how model would work - 
expected that as long as symtoms were simlar it should pick up
Upticks correlated well with CDC data. 
We did notice that the magnitude was off
Are more people going to the doctor
because they are concerned, and policies changed at CDC so there was a lot of uncertainty
At end of every year, we look, see how model performed. May retrain model. That's what we did for the US. Greater than .9 correlation so far with CDC.

Audience is Public Health.
Hard to determine the impact but there are some annecdotes:
Last year, as curve was going off the charts, 
Needed to make the decision to order more vaccine
Google flu trends started to show inflection point
They decided to hold offf on that purchase
Saved them quite a lot of money. Then CDC confirmed.
\"Yes\" this is helping
People are getting vaccines. Have twitter feeds showing that (Guy in TX got his first flu shot due to google flu trends in his area)
Lots of ideas and advice coming in
Link to demographic data. Insights on 
Can we have insight into exactly which topics and queries are related to spikes
Severity, complicatoions.

PH message. From European CDC and Prevention [NOTE US doesn't have \"prevention\" in name of organization!]

Flu.gov Special search result. We don't give health advice. But we had tips on preventing spread of flu.
But if we can work with ministers of health who can reach public in time ...
We mapped locations for getting flu shots
Show where to get vaccine. People coming to Google to search for this stuff.
Guy wrote in - daughter with weakened immune system. Found location to help her.
Expanding Flu Trends. Global expansion of estimates continues. 
Hoping to expland the flu shot finder to other countries next year
Can this work for other diseases? Influenza is \"low hanging fruit\". Will be a lot more difficult
Want to target more granular diseases, for which you don't have historic data over time, they only affect 100s or thousands at a time
100,,000s, rather than millions.
Any other questions: 

cconrad@google.com

Don Francis, UC Berkeley 
\"A conversation with Don Francis\": http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LLxIJBrXdw
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Francis)

Thanks Corrie, I am now going to move from epidemics into the control of those epidemics with vaccines

Remarkable story ending with some good news.
Came in unfortunately via relatively successful approach to stop smallpox.
HepatitusB - human and mother to infant stopped.
Both short incubation. And carrier state. 30 yrs later- cancer of the liver. Huge in Asia.

Starting with measles and small pox and using vaccines to ellimnate them
Felt very cocky when HIV came around, probably a mistake
HIV. Horrendous disease. Not only with rapid spread. Primates to humans to humans around the world. Spread by airplane model. 100% death, after 10 year incubation. Millions have died and continue to die. 

Ability to sequence, scan is now inherent. This one was difficult to grow. Find where protiens grow. Find logical place for vaccine to go.
Using work at genentch to create vaccines
Show that we can protect primates
Ultimately move to humans then to trials for an eventual vaccine

This vaccine did not work - $100M+ involved in development
Huge costs involved. Stimulated by private sector. 
After that, Merck's vaccine (private sector) - totally different concept. Caused increase in infections. Really difficult for whole field: risks seemed to increase for volunteering for trials.

Finally a facinating story recently with Army in Thailand combining two things
We found one - no one though it would work - that does work.
HIV. A spherical virus. Unique docking system to T-cells. The ones that should protect you. HIV eats them up.
gp120 docking site binds to T cells, we know thise whole process very well
Docks with cell, kills cell and repeats.
Molecular weight of 100K
Antibodies can bond to prevent docking with T-Cells. That is the concept of all vaccines.
Ideas of strengthing T cell so they can resond and defend themselves from HIV without antibodies but this is the main way vaccines work
[Development history graph 1984 - 2003]
Sequenced HIV.
Once found to be retrovirus, we understood structure quickly. Part could be used as a vaccine. Produced protien. Very expensive. Hard to do in research setting. Immunized one strain.
we went on and made the next strains which were more appropriate and put those in chimps
We could protect against HIV in theory. At Genentech. US Govt did not want to do Phase III.
So Genentech said, start company. Founded VaxGen working in Thailand and this part of the world.
North America (gay men) and Thailand (IV drug users)
How to test vaccine? Randomly some get it and some don't. Double Blind test.
1.5% Sexual transmitted, 4% Blood Borne for Phase III trials
Need 5,00 users in North America and 2,500 in Bangkok
5 years later you have the results. Huge effort.
Look at safety, then see if it works. Swelling, etc. were the same.
If you do a vaccine trial, more people will take risks.
lots of resistance to this initially
Risk behavior went down as a result of intense counseling throughout study. [Hmmm. Sounds like there might have been an education effect ...]
Rate of HIV infection was aboslutely flat
Efficacy drug results were very discouraging.
In US, overall it worked. Not in Thailand. \x3cNOT overall... in subgroups, no?>

AIDSVAX Development History:
Very very difficult and arduous process
gigantic trials of uninfected people also

How much money?
$50M Genetech
$130MVaxGen
$100M Celltrion
300 million to 600 million dollar ventures. These have to compete with all other investments.
Time to get to return is extensive. Generally, a market failure to be honest.

Merck's Ad5. Different path.
Trials in the Americas
3000 volunteers in NAmerica, SAmerica, Caribbean in 2004
800 in South Africa in 2007
both trials stopped for safety concerns in October 2007 - Saw increase infection in vaccinees. Very unsual. WHY?
Seems this vaccine stimulated cells to be receptive to virus. Worst outcome you could have.
This was stopped by data safety and monitoring board.

Last chapter is finally a positive result
most recent Thai study.
Started not for profit with Gates money. 
crazy idea from US army and Thai army
Let's combine two vaccines and see if they would work.
To be honest, I think people in both companies said, Well ... OK, unlikely.
What do you know! Vaccine COMBINATION showed efficacy. Remarkable.

Article: http://www.contentnejmorg.zuom.info/cgi/content/full/361/23/2209

Equally important were people who said, \"Let's take the chance and go ahead.\"
trial took 6 years to finish.
16,000 volunteers. Interest and commitment. Ask them about sex life. Suck blood out of them. To get there, started with 26,000 in rural Thailand. Must all be HIV negative, see if you can prevent HIV. Tell them not to take risks. They do anyway. Once you vaccinate them, you don't want them to move away. 3 years of follow up.
Test for HIV at end of study.
Shows safety. Placebo had same pattern / no side effects.
Shows Efficacy of 31.2% reduction of HIV infection

** We need to improve development and distribution timelines

In order to make a vaccine, we need [very complicated slide]
Develop all the pieces to put the drug together. \"Deca-milions of dollars.\"
Conclusions:
Vaccines are slow to develop
HIV is slower
Long job.

10:51
Sample of a post- post-graduate course in epidemiology.
Take 10-15 break. Come back in and we'll have an hour long panel discussion.
Interactive and Q&A.
Interesting to see what you guys are going.
Good uses of laptops and bad - you guys are GOOD. Community blog in real time.
Half would have Wikipedia open.
Figuring out what IOM was. Wonderful to watch.

Q1: What do you think is the next pandemic? Where from? 
Don Burke, Dean of Pittsburgh School of Public Health. Predicted SARS.

Q2: Given challenge. 10 week project. How can that happen in epidemiology?
Jump in.

If we have time: dark arts. Bio-terrorism. How good is early warning system.
Overlap of natural and manmade pathogens.

Have some fun with bugs and drugs.

11:11
Peter: Technologies may not be here now. Try to intercept.
Extract from these experts what they want?

11:30
Q: Similar to http://earthquake.usgs.gov/ which asks, \"Did you feel it?\", ask \"Did you catch it?\"
A: It's time to put the public back in public health, human beings are a part of the system - especially in the developing world this is important. Up to 231 cases every month, there are cases of respiratory___
We should put these social networking tools in the hands of the people
We don't know the causes of death for ~50% of the people on earth - in rural villages in Africa, we only sometimes know that they die and not even what they die of. Remember that some data is segmented, not everyone has access to the same information. \"Not all clouds are equal\" - need cloud + crowd systems - this technology doesn't exist.
In USA, public health is suffering system. There is no public sector that will fill void of public health. USA is likely as backward per capita as developing world
How do you incentivize?
IJustMadeLove.com to promote people showing where they just did it
Make IJustGotSick.com?? What is the incentive?
[see also
Epidemiologists are using IT to track and tackle the H1N1 swine flu virus
http://www.smarthealthcare.com/h1n1-swine-flu-epidemiology-20may09 ]

11:37
Q: We don't have small pox and polio because we have a vaccine, why are we still getting HIV using the effective vaccine?
A: Keeps reexpressing different proteins on surface. 

11:38
Q: How would you comment on activities around human vaccinations mutating into new viruses?
A: The issue of vaccines is a problem (no one will give a live HIV vaccine), watch for changing of viruses after the inroduction of
Sequence-ability: how many people have taken cipro (?), last antibiotic (and family of antibiotics) introduced.
$1B for a new vaccine to be developed
Antrax outbreak: early on huge exposure in Post Office and Whitehouse, became a social dynamic about which drug to use.
Concept of banning antimicrobials in animals for things that humans are exposed to because it resistance is increasing even if we're not taking the antibiotics directly because it is widespread in the environment via animal waste.

Q: The more lives we save the more lives we help, how are vaccinational programs associated with educational programs?
A: Vaccinating children population_______
Child survivor hypothesis
When parents understand that children will live into adulthood and not die of childhood diseases, birthrate increases (?) [hypothesis that birthrate correlates with expected childhood mortality. see wrt malaria http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v415/n6872/full/415680a.html ]

Q: Detection of viruses, whole spectrum isn't looked at, early detection is probably best prevention, create a viral micro array?
A: Use unknown sample and place it on a chip
Think of biodiversity of species on you right now. Many of them we are still not familiar with. Going through organ systems and attempting to characterize them - which are pathogenic and which are _____
Mass Tech PCR will identify 20-30 common sources of fever
Creating a health infrastructure
Potential for X-Prize? Triquarter problem (Star Trek - instant medical diagnonsis) - how do we get this to be $1 so that it is in the hands of people all over the world. Take current technology and get triquarter ability on a chip - you will solve this problem.

11:55
Q: Spanish flu of 1918 took up to 100M people in two years, how do we enable people to work towards developing drugs when they don't have $1B?
A: Bet: within next 10 years, we will have a disease that will kill 100M people - 50% thought a near probability - not if we will have a pandemic, what will we do to prepare for it/prevent it. 
No one thought that we could get SE Asian farmers to kill their animals after outbreak of ___
Public health has problem of looking at thing at population level but we need individuals to start caring about this stuff
Remarkable ability of people to ignore things that are delayed - used to be impossible to get funding for HIV research because it is slow

Q: How well do we understand how pandemics naturally come to an end?
A: Density of susceptibles: the primary factor 
We now have a large enough population that people who were infected by a disease originally and developed imunity, by the time it \"circles the globe\", mutation causes reinfection

Imbalance of market situation: either a pill that is very expensive, or a pill that needs to be taken over a long period of time

Q: What will you do to break through
A: It could be possible to develop a model but we aren't there yet

Q: When diseases arise in US, what should we do (as compared to wearing face masks in Asia)?

Q:Do diseases change around the world differently based on the area and ethnic groups? 
Q: can understanding the placebo affects on the brain help us improve or create solutions for these viruses and epidemics? 
Q:Should we fight microorganisms with other microorganisms? Should we do somehting about FDA constraints?
We do use microogranisms to generate the treatments, but it's still in it's infacy for exampe phages! As we learn more about them they will probably become a huge help. FDA looks pretty good compared to other countires, essentially they say go for it.

We must understand that technology alone cannot solve health problems. We also need people and the public health infrastructure to deliver proven technological solutions.

Think about animal disease not just human diesase

Very interesting related article entitled: \"Women's Education and Fertility Rates in Developing Countries, With Special Reference to Bangladesh\"
http://www.eubios.info/EJ124/ej124i.htm
Peasants are smart and hard working, if 50-75% of children die you need to think about having 

http://www.healthysocial.org/

[end]

From
http://www.flu.gov/individualfamily/prevention/index.html
Take these everyday steps to protect your health:Take these everyday steps to protect your health:
Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze. Throw the tissue in the trash after you use it.
Wash your hands often with soap and water, especially after you cough or sneeze. Alcohol-based hand cleaners are also effective.
Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Germs spread this way.
Try to avoid close contact with sick people.
Stay home if you are sick until at least 24 hours after you no longer have a fever (100\u00b0F or 37.8\u00b0C) or signs of a fever (without the use of a fever-reducing medicine, such as Tylenol\u00ae). Read detailed information about how long to stay away from others.
Follow public health advice regarding school closures, avoiding crowds and other social distancing measures.
Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze. Throw the tissue in the trash after you use it.
Wash your hands often with soap and water, especially after you cough or sneeze. Alcohol-based hand cleaners are also effective.
Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Germs spread this way.
Try to avoid close contact with sick people.
Stay home if you are sick until at least 24 hours after you no longer have a fever (100\u00b0F or 37.8\u00b0C) or signs of a fever (without the use of a fever-reducing medicine, such as Tylenol\u00ae). Read detailed information about how long to stay away from others.
Follow public health advice regarding school closures, avoiding crowds and other social distancing measures.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jun21-track-introductions
"
Welcome to EtherPad!

This pad text is synchronized as you type, so that everyone viewing this page sees the same text. This allows you to collaborate seamlessly on documents!

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jun25-Team-Project-Introductions
"Track Introductions
Friday 25 June 2010

http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-water
http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-energy
http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-food
http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-space
http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-upcycle

Adriana Cardenas (Associate Faculty NASA)
Will interface with SU. Access to NASA technology.
associated director for engineering. bkgd in Law. worked in civil rights in education. special agent in dept of defense. as an adolescent and teenager worked as a migrant farm worked with her family. ticket out of migrant farm work was education, which allowed her to access her own water, home, electricity, etc. if we impact with 1B+ kids with education, then we will impact with food, water, home, energy, etc.

Yvonne - member of NASA astronaut core.
will interface with SU like Adriana.

Eric Dahlstrom - TP General Overview.
(slides available on TP portal)

Looking for problems that are at the intersection of accelerating tech.
Want you to lift your thinking to a global level.
You all have your specialties, we want you to take the big picture.

You'll need to work in teams. Not everybody will follow you. You actually have to build some consensus. But a team working together is a very powerful activity.

We're giving you as much flexibility as possible in specific products that you develop at the end, but we're asking for intermediate products along the way, and a presentation at the end to report on what you've been doing.

If you see Ray Kurzweil's presentation or book and the amount of information across disciplines, you can tap into that with Kathryn because she assembled all that. Ask her how many footnotes there are!

We had a large focus on TPs this week. Next week we will drop back to just a couple, and gradually ramp up to more and more team project time.

We're looking for actionable results, follow-on research, organizations, projects, potential business concepts, etc. We have a lot of organizations that are interested in what you come up with and there's a lot of opportunity for follow-on work.

Where did the TP structure come from?
My impressions: last time it was one project, starting off with just 10^9+
Of course people immediately started brainstorming.
And with this kind of crowd you get exponential brainstorming: 1764 ideas, being ranked and sorted. This took a while. The vast majority of time last summer was on the brainstorming part, before being narrowed down to 4 projects at the end.

As someone pointed out, this looked like the unsuccessful marshmallow tower.

We had some great outputs last time, but it ended up being something of a painful process.
So, some of the things they asked for:
More time for team project
Constrain the problem space
Start earlier.
Get an overview in the first week.
Get experts and resources (TP leads and TFs bringing in experts and
Have activites for you.)
Also, capture information at each stage.
(A lot of information last summer was never documented)
It sort of dissolves away.
Even your intermediate projects are very useful, for some other organizations and people.

So, the changes we've made. Added extra week at the beginning.
Resources and subject matter experts coming in in the early weeks.
We are asking to document some of the opportunities and plans
And getting more time for the project focus at the end.

So, this expoential technology impact report is
It's basically a survey of advancing technologies, as you'll hear about from the tracks, as applied to a particular problem.
Now, you've heard about these problems.
As you hear the core lectures, you'll say:
Here is something that is useful that can be applied in this area.
What will the team focus on for project focus.
And that's where we're giving you as much flexibility as possible.
when you have that big block of time.

The development plan just is a small step that puts things in context, about why you think the focus of what you're working on is a step towards that Grand Challenge Problem.

Notional example, off the top of my head. 
[Very nice chart, which people should look at.] [List potential applications on one axis, and use the other to list SU tracks]
Let's say you just focus on the transportation side of energy use.
Breakdown problem of transportation
Look at it across the tracks, as you hear about tech and app areas in the lectures, you'd start to think about biotech as applied to energy production or something like that.
What if down towards bottom instead of printing, you 3D print products
[news flash: we just got a 3D MONITOR into the lab]

How do we align these opportunities to address a problem space.
Asking you to do a short 5 page plan of how your steps are moving in a particular direction.
Societal
Regulatory issues

After going through a plan of opportunities, you could get a specific near term step
Get to sharing cars.
Think of a way to shift public view, in this case sharing cars.
This puts it in a context of where it will have a large impact.

So the idea is that most of the effort still occurs towards the end when you're working smoothly as an integrated group in the last few weeks and
you can devote a huge amount of time to your project focus
but we're asking you for the intermediate steps earlier.

Something that could include is that you define within your teams, with your TPs and teaching fellows, what would be the steps - specific reports..[??]

There may be in some areas- space for example- needs across a broad range.
Create a final presentation for your project focus.
Or proposals for a specific research, NGO, business concept, that will lead to a launch of a business outside after the summer
conceptual designs, prototypes, software or hardware demos
or communication, online web tools, online communities.
Think about what you are going to work on . Propose that on your team.
And present on Friday, Aug 6, so we know what you're spending the remaining part of your project on.

Week from Saturday, select from team projects. We have a voting system,
We'll do a test of that tomorrow
but actually asking you to do final on July 3rd. Analyze on July 4th
considering issues like balance between the groups and asking people individually if they want to be in a big group or if they have a second choice if they'd prefer a smaller group, etc.

July 3 TP Final Selection
July 23 Draft tech impact report
Aug 3 ETIR report due (exponential technology impact report, grid of tp topic areas vs. su tech and application tracks)
Aug 6 Dev plan due
Aug 25 Written TP report due (4-5 page)

TP portal has details of draft EITR.
and also the list of specific products that you're working on.

Final week, basically you collect products, whatever they are, reports...

One internally within groups and then a 5 minute version for closing cermony.

One item is that we have this distinction between
Certificate of completion or participation
One factor is just whether you choose to leave the program for extended weeks, but this is all in the handbook.

Tonight we're having a BBQ at Chase Park \"TP Social\" near the dorm (583)

Survey of team project preference. 
Talk on Systems Thinking. Resources with Kathryn. Also Dave Blakely. Teamwork and brainstorming tools. 
TP selection a week from Saturday.

We'll now have presentations from each of the projects, starting with Food for Cities, so this concludes my presentation.
Questions?
Q: Eric: Plans. Regular issues involve ethics ... regulatory, legal. Focus on US?
There are many elements of launching a business and a lot of good things to work on during the summer, but we're asking that the specifics of things like certain elements of the business plan and the launch of that be developed after the summer, because if you start to have people going off to fundraising meetings and things like that, it can actually get less that what you want out of that process.
Answer: Up to project.

Q: Lauren: Overview of schedule. TP Product Development Schedule.
Week 7 formulating business?
If I were going to tell you that you had to wait until Week 7 to start putting together a business plan, and everything you have to do for due diligence, that would be insane.

Get a really sharp concept.
Consider a 10 year project.
Don't launch by end of this project. We'll help you anytime after the program.
Don't feel pressure to get something launched. 
Better off getting the concept down so that when you get into the due diligence phase you know that you're ready and you've gotten feedback from this program.
We'll continue to provide youwith support for the rest of the year.

Q: Chiara: Can you split up within a team or just one? Energy for Cities [Home Energy, Food for Cities]? Or can we do something broader?

Good questions for project leads in that area. We're trying to - within- how to break up with work within a project, we're depending on student self-organization. We would create subprojects and things like that that contribute towards the final goal. a project depends on student organization.

The first challenge is self-organization. To communicate - not only focusing on the problem - but on how to you assign roles, who's making decisions - trying to figure that out is going to be tough enough and trying to figure out what you're going to solve is going to be just as difficult so that's going to be up to you. I've seen many models for successful projects at ISU and SU - from CEO/leader to completely group management, both can work and I've also seen spectacular failures so it really depends on how you want organize your own group.

Chris: Really hard to get different people working together.
Who will work on what part.
Figuring that out is a \"tough nut\" (something difficult).

Q: Sasha/Canada. Go to exponential technologies. Goal to focus on right idea space?
If so, I'm a little leary of forecasting out things 10 years. Is it a valid system for doing that?

I would say that each one of these things have a bunch of other parameters, including confidence, time horizon, whether it looks like a game-changing opportunity or, in the NASA world they've formalized the Tech Readiness Level concept...This is just meant to illustrate that there are these intersections. How you choose to describe the opportunities that you see - we can talk more about what things would be useful to put into an EITR. Like is it research, is it ready, is it already on an exponential trajectory. This top-level view is only one way to slice the data. Deeper views would of course be more useful.

Q: Sasha - great articulation of technology, but not much about people. 

Chris: I think we'll be giving you a little bit more info, this is just to point out that each group is going to have to sit down and define the problem how they see it. These are really just basic ideas and they're really quite large. You'll have to do extra research, but you'll get there, and see a lot of really interesting tech, whether you choose to focus on that later on or not. That's a really great report, though - nobody publishes that. Nobody puts together what's ready today, things ready in 5, 10, years. Just mapping that out is really valuable. If you can pick 1 or 2, 3, 4 ideas out of that and develop into orgs, business, social awareness program, that's a big win, but I think the first one is just as important. We're defining this for the first time as well, and we'll be relying on you guys to make sense of that and make something that is really valuable to the world community.

Q: Rand. I was just wondering since so many people from biotech, how come we don't have anything directly medically related. Finding cure for pandemics?

Chris: We were going to have Salim answer that but he's hiding.

Eric: There are, like you say, there are health implications on each of the other projects. Connections with food, water, and extracting some of the health monitoring in the space world and making that available on Earth. But we want to support all sorts of different networking and connections, and preparing material for the future, and across both space and time a broader network of the SU community into further projects is valuable.

Salim: The real reason that we have - when we did the student selection we have people from all of the different expertises. Each of you has a deep expertise in one of the tech areas. The key desire is that you cross over into something that you're not familiar with. We want you to leave behind the stuff you've been doing. We want you to go play in a domain you're not familiar with. The test of you as leaders will be the ability to go into a domain where you don't know what's going on, assemble a team, and tackle that problem. This is my first experience with academia, nonprofit, and education. Doesn't matter. If you can get the right group of people, make a clear plan, you can make progress. If you know biotech and you just do a biotech project, that's wrong. Each of you has extraordinary projects, but lift up to a whole other level. This is a Petri dish where you can play and think really big. Impacting a billion people is going to almost necessitate that you leave your expertises behind and operate on problem spaces that aren't that familiar. Remember Peter's comment from yesterday: an expert can tell you how things can't be done. We need to break those barriers. That's why we want you to work in an area that's different from your own. 

I think we had 43 major topic areas from Millenium Develop Goals, NAE goals, etc., we were trying to line up champions and experts in each. If you can help us didentify and lay the framework and structure for doing a great job of pandemics next summer, come back as advisors or TFs next summer, we'll know a lot more about how we can work as a project after this summer.

Q: Eric E: How about the number and size of the teams?

We're looking at that. Once we understand your interest, we'll be looking at backgrounds and expertise and things like that...I'm tring to be flexible as much as possible to let people follow their first choice. We're looking at 10 people as a minimum for a team project. We have some experience from last summer where people were missing some expertise that they needed, so we'll be working with each of the TP leads to see what they consider the maximum on each of these things. I don't want to give you any fixed number, but it's going to be us looking at the interest and trying to accomadate that.

Chris: We have to get off the stage, but you can ask any questions on content at the Social tonight.

3:19
Food for Cities Team Project
John Hogan and Chris McKay

As you know Chris and I 
We'll be here at Ames throughout the summer and available pretty much on a daily basis. We are going to be resources for you.
Anyone else coming up?

All of you heard from my presentation earlier, but I want to remind you of certain things, and tell you about resources we have available.

As you know, this is the situation where we have 1 bn people undenourished.
There's your target 1 bln people.

We also have a lot more coming down the pipe.

A large amount of food is wasted due to post-harvest losses, not given to people...many shameful modes in which food does not reach people. Distribution is obviously an important part, but in itself won't solve the problem.

There are a number of issues in terms of the way nutrients are being handled, and certainly in climate change there are issues likely to get worse.

We're dropping in food production quite a bit.

Lots of things to consider. Not a 1-solution space.

[Slide: Current Food Security Goals]
We saw this before, the UN Millenium Dev'ment goals. We have the goal to take about 1/2 bln people, about 1/2 the underweight children up to weight {??}
That's years from now. We can think about how to do that, but the real question is how do we sustainably do that? Can we keep that up?

[Slide: The Grand Challenge]
I actually changed a word in here based on some comments from the students - not production, but supply. Food supply systems.
But sustainably, I can't repeat that word enough. Not just quick fixes -we need to fix the system totally so we can nourish future human populations while maintaining our ecosystems.

If we can't do that we can't call it a solution.
Turning ag on its head. Not just producing food but providing overall sustainability.

[Slide: Responding to the Challenge]
Highly complex system. Solutions that converge on one another.
It's going to include technological advances, but also economic, social, political regulation.
Systematic interfacing with what's happening with climate change. Adapt to and/or mitigate climate change. As well as a variety of other systems.

The TP will require focusing on a subset of these - but we're going to try to maintain an overall perspective.

[Slide: Potential Food Security Requirements]
A preliminary first step is developing food security requirements. Vey much a sys engineering thing.
At the UN people often say let's have a goal.
But all of the problems in the way of getting there are not necessarily arranged systemantically and considered together when you try to think of a solution.
Forom my perspective this is a strong area to think about, similar to what Eric showed, when trying to put together different areas - think about convergent solutions.

[Slide: Potential Areas to Consider]
Here are some ideas, if people have particular interest or expertise...there's a slew of different economic, social and regulatory issues

[Slide: Potential Areas to Consider 2]
We have controlled environmental food production systems. One speaker talked about vertical farming, another talked about specific controlled env't.
You can look at gen. engineering, already going on for plants, and potentially meat.
Water requirements- not imposing on the water team but we are running out of water within ag, so how we can handle that issue within ag?

[Slide: Potential Areas to Consider 3]
Food distribution is a major issue. It's produced worldwide but doesn't get where it needs to go.
Managing the nutrient cycles. Nutrients are being removed from ag systems...we're also potentially at risk of running out of phosphorus. You can make the equation that Phosphorus = Food.
Food safety. There's a lot of issues - esp in impoverished areas - with making food delivery safe - often it isn't.
How do we bring AI or IT to help in the ag sector? People are looking at predicting famines at Goddard Space C. Ecological forecasting.

[Slide: Potential Areas to Consider 4]
How do we use and produce sustainable energy in ag?
Trying to turn ag into a healing process for the ecosystem.

[Slide: Potential Team Activities]
When you think about overall team activities, you could think about developing an overall conceptual model of an indoor farm. Look at both the production and distribution, identify appropriate crops and perhaps aquaculture. And then how to integrate, might not just be vertical farm, any sort of dense farming, into 
{...}
[Slide: Potential Team Activities 2]
ooing at enabling technologies. 
sensors, smart grid, netwokring, AI, nanotech, and robots. How and when to add water. Find out quickly when disease or pests strike and remediate. Can ag become carbon-negative/ Investigate the generation of new products - what things can we make that are typically waste? plastics, compost, feed for ag. [biofuels too]
[Slide: Potential Team Activities 3]
What is the overlap between space and this food systems? We have a lot of experience with controlled agriculture in space, so look at that. ABut also look at how new tech on earth can help with space travel. Think about generating a roadmap to integrate dense urban farming, vertical farming, to impoverished communities.
[Slide: Potential Team Activities 4]
Finally, we have the 3D printer, and other systems could be used, to make a model - we could have the resources to help you build a demonstration. We also talked about actually getting a small greenhouse, a portable one in the back of bldg 20, if you want to do indoor experiments, we can get plants that are already grown. Chris is generous enough to talk about lending various water-sensing systems, hardware to be able to look at perhaps innovation in something like that. We have that hardware here at NASA.

We also have other speakers who will be coming in during the summer - Eric {?} at Rutgers who developed the NJ eco-complex - using the landfill to help produce food, fish, {?}....ag expert, tracking down a lead for someone who does meat substitutes from New Harvest. And we also wanted to get suggestions, as you start finding areas that you want to focus in if you find someone you want to bring in, please let us know.

Time now for questions. Particular questions about food.

Q: .... .... I'll sit.
Q: Chiara/ Italy. A technical question. Came up. Gap in Phosphorus. Why? How should we address. Why is it difficult to get it?
Phosporous has to be mined. 
Nitrogen is in the air.
Phosporous NPK - the P is Phosporous. Amount economically available is peaking close to now. At at that point, same as energy peak. Except it is an absolute requirement. Need to recycle Phosphorous. From humans or livestock. 
How do we get waste phosphorus back into the agricultural cycle?
Not easy.
Lots of issues associated with the benefits of doing those things, but traditionally in terms of health concerns...in China, I've been told, throughout the millenia, if you go to somebody else's house at dinner, you didn't leave until you left part of what you ate in their night-soil pile, because they understood that if you took nutrients away from the farm, that would be bad. {?} So bringing waste back into the system is going to be a very interesting and complex problem, & one that people won't want to address until they can see there's a problem, {?}

Q: Idea: System level analysis of food. Potential technologies that affect that. Conceptual model of the entire problem. Would be an interesting study. I'd be interested in being involved. Also, wire up some plants. Focus on water with sensors. Water state in plants and soils. Drip irrigation taken to its IT limit. My own background is in extreme environment. Measure life forms that are in water shortage. Close that link and find ways to bring back that water. People in deserts = opposite of vertical farm. Smart systems and feedback to control.

Q: Mike Chen - Very interested in in vitro meat. Much of the work here still must be done in the lab. Elaborate how research in laboratory would fit in with team projects here.

Genetic engineering of anything. More or less a trade analysis (?)
So, from that, more of an assessment.
You could also look at what is the process for making it. [mumble mumble]

Question about food for cities.
[Slide: Food for thought
- Bring your ideas forward
- Improve the lives of 10^9+ people]
Food doesn't have to come from cities.

Q: Argentina: Throw into mix. Regarding fossil fuel utilization. In US, 30 calories of fossil fuel.
6000 gallons per pound of meat.

Comment on first point. Top down system. View food production along certain dimension.
Look at fuel cost and water cost.
People in AND out of cities.

Sustainability metrics are difficult. Books show not easy subject. 
Many things may lead to good systems. 
Amount of metrics and specificity may not be well thought out.
Very difficult.

Could be part of output: define what is sustainability.

Eric: Next project. Talk tonight.
3:48

Etherpad for SU ideas: http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-food

=================

Space with Chris Lewicki and TF Marco Chacin

Chris: Heard GC yesterday. 
To Boldly Stay
\"Space is big ...\" Douglas Adams.
[OMG he's dead!] (tear)
So, like every team project, who are the people doing the projects?
Governments
Companies
What are stepping stones across the pond?
[photo of Obama]
Spoke April 15, 2010.
How do you do this so that it pays for itself.
Private sector exploring how to move forward.

Robotic exploration.
Teaching robot and 2 year old: 2 year old can learn faster.
Always easier to do something with ath a human, at least in the near future.
Use them as best as possible.

Resource utilization. Live off the land.

One PhD in geology and 50 robots working for him.

Look at current state of the art. Risk posture has been to be very cautious.
Some super state of the art next to 15 year old technology.
Put stuff from Best Buy in space. [yeah, like the whole store ...]

Overview:
Future Studies is looking at WHEN we are in space.
What new problems?
People who have mobility problems are happier when weightless.

Policy, Law & Ethics.
Land on Moon - so moon is yours ????
Environmental stewardship elsewhere. EPA for the moon?
Obama quote: global collaboration.

Finance & Entrepreneurship
Where are the glaring holes?
Who is leading?
Workforce issues.
What conditions would country/company created in space have?

Networks & Computing
Gets fun here.
What would distributed processing of local information do to accelerate the use of information from large-aperture observatories (etc.)?
[Suggestion: fewer words on this slide ...]

Biotech
Use biology as a machine: a sensor, life support, a battery working off of bacteria?

Nano
Swarm exploration of space
Self repairing systems

Medicine
ER in space

AI
Giving remote-AI to seek answer to \"question\"
What compression can result? Certainly lossy, but the meaning [huh, like taking these notes ...] is retained.

Energy
What about \"the grid\" in space?
Space-based solar power. If you don't have to do it in that direction (down to Earth), what can you do?

Exp Tech Impact Report
[9 point slide with micro print TOO SMALL to read]
Lots of significant obstacles. 
How to change them.
Project from last summer: best way to communicate an idea is to demonstrate something.
Maybe idea is plain to you, but pet people need to see it in action.
Take current technology and showing how it can be applied.

How can we improve life on Earth?

Demonstate Emerging Technologies.
- a resarch plan
- a development plan
- architecture
- tackle a single problem

Examples [more micro print]
\"too long to read\"
A lot of what takes up closet space on the station is spare parts.
Nice to keep 3D printer. Just send up raw materials.

biological manipulation of space materials:
asteroid + sunlight + some life form in bag.
Get more useful form of material.
Is that possible? What 5 steps between here and there?

How will you improve the lives of a billion people:
\"By saving their butts .. and giving them resources\"
- Rusty Schweikart.

Q: Alison: Couple of questions. 
1/ skipped 
2/ why can't we have zero G on Earth?

Question was - why skip over part of why to go to space helps those here on others. 

No micro gravity or zero gravity on Earth? You can get it. Just not for very long.
Magnet so powerful that it could pull bloodcells and hold you up.

Lot of physics no one has found yet. One day we'll figure it out.

How space improves the lives of people?
To me, it is very broad. 
It is exciting.
I like exploration aspect of it. Being able to be an explorer. 
Experiencing for first time, first hand.
Lot of things get developed out of solving hard problems.
Example of JFK, not because it is easy, but because it was hard.
Tiny sense it was possible.
Invented many things as a result.
Alot of the things we do in space are extensions of research.
Best physics experiments are done in space.
Basic science questions are good to research in space.

Starting to see problems -- closed loop life support -- help us think about problems on Earth.
Anything you do inside bubble - new plant, new organism. Might end up with lettuce and nothing else to eat. 
The thing about it - HARD problem to solve.

We are already in a closed system and learning how to make it sustainable, and the closed capsules in space is the same. One thing affects everything else. 
Q: What is lacking is the sense of urgency, how can we operate spaceship earth? 
Unless its in your front yard, its not urgent to you. Best and worst things that can happen to excellerate our needs for space is a target on our back. Rusty says that we do have a target on our back. 
Hard to display urgency when you can't show its actually there. 
Find the market that exists next year, like tourists who want to enter space next year. 
We are not very good at doing what is in our best long term interests. 

Etherpad for SU ideas: http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-space

=================

[break at 4:23 until 4:30]

4:40
Home Energy
Jose Cordeiro and Jim Hurd

$8 Trillion market.
per year.
Electricity in US comes primarily from coal for light and heat.
Oil runs cars and trucks.
As a gross generality.
Totally different ecosystems. Majority of oil comes from overseas.
Huge reserves of coal.

Home Energy Generation:
Off the grid, carbon neutral residential energy systems.
Reason why it is hard, why taken so many years - we are used to VERY cheap energy.
US has lowest gasoline prices in the developed world. 
Jose: Venezuela is cheapest in developing world.
We don't pay much to heat houses -- unless you live in cold part of the country in the winter.

Focus: devil in the details in Energy. Take time and thought to drill down on area you are interested in.
Look at details of business ecosystem.
Look at tradeoffs. Always a series. Get inside that.
When doing solar. Batteries for cars.
Saul made good point - we need Energy Literacy.
We tend to wrap it into one giant ball and call it Energy.
You have to realize that making an impact takes intelligence, sweat and time.
Wanted to emphasize that about Energy markets.

Secondpart here: Point of use systems.
We're used to this grid energy that is really quite cheap.
POU is not easy.
Has taken many decades to get solar down to $25,000 on your roofwith subsidies.
Weed through technologies to see which COULD make difference. See which scale. See whether people will adopt them.
Worst thing in developing world, must look at where PULL is. And do that.
Better not to start from looking at technological solutions. Much smarter to look at process in a given family or community. Understand how process works now, think about how to change it.

Try for incremental changes.

Then think about exponential change. See if it gets scaled up.
Jatropha. [I think this is a cane or grass that has biofuel potential]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jatropha

One I saw won a World Bank Award. Hasn't scaled.
Has not been able to take off.
sort of setting the stage here.

Possible Goals:
- scalable sources
- energy matrix by country
Oil in Russia. Huge land mass.
[May also be more oil in Africa - just hasn't been found yet.]
China has very little oil and water, every area has its own unique challenges

Goals 2: 
- carbon footprints
- carbon-neutral alternatives
- CHEAP local energy production

Copenhagen did not go well for industries - tough time for carbon

Fascinating start ups in this area working on changing CO2 into energy, could be transformative

Identify cheap ways of producing local energy systems for individual homes (solar, wind, and others)

Tight profit margins

Goals 3:
- storage
- wireless electricity
Storage systems is kind of a magical area
If you talk to leading VCs, they'll tell you storage is one of the areas that is most open for innovation
Ultra capacitors

Investigate wireless energy transfer, nanotech, robots, smart grids, transport systems, communication, etc to redce the costs of the future energy supplies.

Bob Metcalf on Enernet. Runs Polaris Ventures.
Jose: Energy Internet.
Jim: If you just try for big breakthroughs, you never know if they will get adopted.
Try from inside of a process out.

When the west tries to regulate tech adoption that's usually a recipe for disaster
Goals 4:
- energy in water/heat
- prototype home energy for developing world
- (missed)

[Slide: Energy is Essential to the Other Challenges
pentagon with Energy / Water / Space / Upcycle / Food]
[Jose takes the stage.]

Energy is essential to the other challenges.
July 26: compare across all projects and learn from each other.
To go to space we need \"billions of whatever\" in energy
$100 to bring you to orbit if the energy comes from the grid.
To send Dan Barry to space just for his weight it costs $1 mln [in fuel?]

[Slide: Energy \"Waves\" and \"Decarbonization\"
1820 mostly wood
2040 much cleaner and diverse]
Energy has gone through different phases.
Then we have the wave of coal, then oil, then gas, then other energy sources
You can see the acceleration
Another important factor is decarbonization in energy
everytime we go up we have more hydrogen, less carbon, moving towards cleaner energies

[Slide: Available renewable energy: 86,000 TW solar, 870 TW Wind, 32 TW geothermal, 7.2 TW hydro. Global consumption: 15 TW]
Two big elephants: Solar and (little elephant: Wind)
Today we civilzation takes 15 TWatts

Russian who talked about how much energy there is in the universe.
[LINK?]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale
We are babies on this scale. There's plenty of E, just have to use it better.

Ray Kurzweil and Larry Page pushed solar energy via the Nat'l Academy of Engineering.
http://www.engineeringchallenges.org/

We have some on-site activities: microbial battery, desalination, Autodesk Innovations Lab for those interest in hands-on, and several visits to companies.

We are going to have a session on teamwork because we have a problem: you are all alpha males or alpha females. It is difficult to get all of you working together! (Hard enough with one alpha male and one alpha female...)

We have to produce a video, Web design, and a T-shirt design. (Going to hire Alison to do the T-shirt design: $200/hr at 20 hours. But she's joking.)

Most of the references on energy are terribly linear. Not doing exponential thinking.
Jim: That's why Vinod Khosla was complaining that the linear thinking says coal and oil will still only be very incrementally decreased 50 years from now. And while energy markets are hard to impact - solar is only 0.1% of what we use - technology adoption has been often exponential (that's why we're here), so the linear thinking of EIA at DOE is very poor thinking in saing that renewables will only increase 30%/year over the next 20 years and not much will really happen. One technology I'm helping is a fuel cell that gets energy from coal. A lot of people say there's no such thing as clean coal. They're right, but every time you can make cleaner coal, you save the planet some carbon, and that tech is going to dramatically uptick.

Jose: Vinod Khosla was one of the founders of Sun and interestingly moved from computers to energy. Venture capital in energy is very new.

Jim: We've had little bits of VC in energy for a long time...it hit the mainstream 5-10 years ago, and now you're seeing the point where clean tech and energy investment is nearly 30% of all VC being spent. We'll still have to see whether these investments can be acquired and do IPOs in time, because energy time frames are longer than Internet time frames. A little bit like biotech, but we'll have to see if the energy VCs have enough patience - if say 2-3 years from now the VCs aren't expecting $100mln profits.

Jose: Google has a plan for clean energy 2030. A Stanford prof has a plan for sustainable energy for 2030 and will be coming to talk to us. We have to analyze these possibilities.

Bill Gates in has last TED talk said the #1 priority was energy. So I hope you have no doubt that should be your first priority. :)

As Peter said, energy will become so abundant as to become free, like Internet today.

Saul Griffith talked about energy literacy. [omitted]
Peter said that he would try to bring Elon Musk here. He has three priorities: Internet, energy, and then space.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_musk

In Tokyo they are hoping by 2030 to use space-based solar power.

You can have your own mobile solar panels. We will try to get William Kamkwamba as well, even though he's younger than any of you [except me...]

Last year energy was $7 trln. This year it's $8 trln. And next year it will be...
(shouts: 9!) [linear thinking...]http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jun25-Team-Project-Introductions
9 to 10!
http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/

[...]
North Korea is dark, but South Korea is light. Each yin has its yang.
For those who know Chinese, my Chinese is not too good and my Chinese is actually Japanese. Crisis in Chinese is \u5371\u6a5f. The first character is danger and the second character is opportunity.

Jim: Energy is not an area where you can make a quick exit, so you have to have staying power to be in this industry.

Q&A

Q: I am interested in energy from light wind, which is everywhere every day. Millions of small windmills together, so the combining small powers in parallel can make a bigger energy?

Jim: No, you can't get the blades going enough. Small wind doesn't get anything started.
[Audience protests repeatedly.]
The physics isn't there. I can assure you. Nobody talks about that. Nobody talks about that.
{Neil Gershenfeld's lab at MIT does - conformal energy generation. Unfortunately there are not many links. Can talk to you about it in person. Rosa sent:
http://www.hku.hk/press/news_detail_5535.html
http://www.motorwavegroup.com/new/motorwindpressmaterial}
Light winds can only make a difference in one way. Superconductive magnets. The Chinese have been using them through German companies. But they tend to use those in the biggest magnets.
There's a reason Saul said you have to understand physics to do energy.

Etherpad for SU Ideas: http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-energy

============

Upcycle is an $8,000,000,000,001 industry [lol]
[big laugh for another pentagon slide with Upcycle at the top and Energy in really small print]
5:28
All sorts of billion dollar opportunites in material waste. In this project, all sorts of substances. Materials. Organics. Food wastes. Talk about opportunites, not just challenges.
Will help other projects as well.
Waste is energy. Is about water. 
Why does upcycle help is Space? 
Answer: limited resources

Some of the sources of waste - EExtraction / Production / Consumption

Walmart is only interested in supply chain management. They don't care about what happens on the backside.

If I said, substitute this which costs this much more ... they wouldn't do it.

Sometimes it is impossible to deal with it. Negative value, requires energy to reprocess it.
Unlimited energy in 2030 would help a lot.
UpCycle model - instead of linear system, turn it into circles.
Understanding what you need to do. [Hmmm. That sounds like education ...]

[Slide: UpCycle Opportunities:
Circle around Exponential Technologies:
Industrial Ecosystems
Materials Recovery
Design for Recovery
Organics Digestion
Toxicity
Collection & Separation
Cultural Innovation [ie Education]
Financial Innovation]

2 degrees C temperatuer increase is only the average, there may be upwards of 50C in some areas

Bioplastics:
Methanogens: methane -> bioplastics -> anaerobic digestion + plastic -> methane

One of our biggest limits is that we have some many input streams, what do you do with all the materials coming in

Sensors, Smart Grids, biotech

Estimate carbon foot-pring: there could be oppurtunities for carbon trading

Road Map....

FINAL GOAL: the reduction of solid waste to ZEROOOO:
Most people will say that this is impossible
Instead of filling landfill with nasty things, they will be reused
If we have ubiquitous energy, this will be a great start for upcycle because it won't be considered as a cost factor

Well-Developed: have a lot of money in them....
E-Waste
Plastics
Metals
Paper

But what about... these are the things that no one wants to deal with... people are mostly worreid about getting value out of the process and thinking about the bottom line
Toxic and contaiminated waste - need to bury, maybe microbes?
Food/Organic mtrl
etc.....

Questions and Answers:

Q: Can you create an organization that will help you understand the content of your product and what % is recoverabel?
A: There are many of these types of companies but there are HUGE oppurtunities to develop these areas. Tools, networks....

Q: AI could be important in upcylce, more ideas?
A: Automated systems that look at things coming in
You can look at smart sorting for instance. You have a bunch of stuff coming in, sensors can identify what it is...The more automated you can make that system, the cheaper it is to reprocess.
Mostly organizations that can afford these systems. 

Q: Is there any database of what kinds of waste there are and any available data about what types of waste and materials are available and where?
A: There has been worked on and there are databases, but I think that they're mostly not terribly accurate or detailed. Particularly outside the developed world. Germany would no doubt have a quite good database, but Bangladesh? Probably not. Lots of work to be done there. With energy there's been enough focus that there's lots of statistics. But people have not really wanted to deal with this.
Q: Can you send out an email for specific DBs?
A: I will take that as an action item.
They are for the most part not accurate or detailed outside developed world

Q: Might be a good opportunity to model the cycle of waste and the cycle of materials and just figuring out ne ways to deliver the right info to the right players, if you have real-time info from satellites or something like that.

A: ...Let's thank Upcycle. [applause]

Etherpad to collect SU ideas: http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-upcycle

5:52
==================
Water
==================

The Canadian Prime Minister said \"let's go to the BBQ!\" ...but let's not. [I seem to be missing something here.]

Water has a lot of properties. It has surfaces, waves, viscosity, it's a solvent, it has phase changes (steam power), it corrodes and erodes, it abosrbs heat, and it supplies energy.

You could save a million people just by developing a new type of paint

\"Water water everyone\" - all people past, present and future depend on water - every challenge includes water - water is the solution, what's the problem?:
Fresh water (oxymoron) - all that water we ahve is recycled - healthy water is better phrase

Watersheds
Problems/Opportunites - I ran through this list before

It is six o'clock. Questions or email.
OK, I'm done. Let's go.

Etherpad for SU ideas: http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-water

[end of session]

http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-water
http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-energy
http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-food
http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-space
http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-upcycle

Salim: 10% through program. End of week 1.
We will have a couple students - from Sweden, Austrian, 
For semis and finals we will move lectures to watch the World Cup.

Incredible week.
Thanks.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jun30-20Chairman-20Talk-20by-20Peter-20Diamandis
"Wednesday
6/30/2010
Peter Diamandis
Chairman's Fireside Chats: \"How to fund & implement your world-changing big ideas.\"

My pleasure to be here. Gone a few days. Missed you guys. [Awwww]

When I am here it is living life in a different way.
Oh my god factor every 5 minutes.
Last year's alums please stand.
[applause]
You'll be here next year.
Conversation to keep alive in your life.
You share ownership in creating this.
Wine/cheese in that room being called the Marshmallow. I'm still not buying that name.
Take 2 on the names.
Do you want to take this on?
Are you happy with the names?
These are names -- if they are good names -- they will stick.

Alright - last year Marshmallow was the Arthur C. Clarke Hall

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_C._Clarke

I was hoping for a theme. For XPrise - rooms named for those who won incentive prizes.
Named after greatest inventors.
Expecting a little bit of genius.
Davidad - suggested Buckminster Fuller Building. No one went for it.

Here's the rules. 
Wine and cheese.
Presentation I never gave before.
Successes and failures.
Stuff I learned along the way.
Making your big ideas happen.
Inherently difficult.
Foolish until they become breakthroughs.
For profit non-profit organiaitons.
Form and future function.

Talk it around examples of 
ISU
XPrize
Rocket Racing

I'm going to start with laws that are fun.
I'll e-mail after if you want.

ISU - Murphy's Law.
I looked at that an said \"That's pathetic.\" \"You bought that and put it on the wall.\"
Made my own:
*If anything can go wrong, fit it!! ... to hell with Murphy!

Went to the Harvard Co-op. Sold 50,000 of these posters.
Peter Diamandis created his own laws like this, called them \"Peter's Laws: The creed of the consistent and passionate mind.\"
*When given a choice, take both. 
*Caused troubles and fortunes.
*When creating new capabilities, creating the top.
*When forced to compromise, ask for more.
*If you can't win, change the rules. James Kirk's approach to life. Sometimes world set up so you can't win. (That's a dangerous gambit. But something you have to do sometimes.) 99% stop. Do you? 
*If you can't change rules, then ignore them. Dangerous.
*When faced without a challenge, make one. Find one you would take on in your heart. If you take it on, you can only blame yourself.
*\"No\" simply means begin again at one level higher (a lot of people at certain levels don't have the ability to say yes)
*When in doubt: Think!
*You get what you incentivize (If there's something really screwed up in your organization, in some way you are incentivizinig it.)
*Without a target you'll miss it everytime. (Byron Lichtenberg)
*If you can't measure it, you can't improve it.

SEDS - first organization.
At MIT as an undergrad, there was no student space organization. Ended up postering the campus to get it going. 30 people showed up. Most scary thing I had ever done. It came off.
After first SEDS meeting - vision was student run organization - future was ours to make. Not theirs, but our future. Very naive at the time. Creating this organization was my MBA. Organize people, raise money.
You learn a lot of lessons.
I had a chance. Was raising $5,000. Intro to head of Draper Labs. Non-profit org.
Pitching my heart out. PLEASE, please support us. Seemed like huge amount of money.
\"As non-profit we cannot help you.\"
As I walked out door, I asked, \"could you print and mail our newsletters for us?\"
Got 30,000 of printing and mailing.
Whenever you go to ask somebody ...
if you don't ask, you don't get.

Money is a proxy for energy. An exchange proxy. 
If you believe, you've got to ask.
It is an insult not to make the request for something.
Advice, what should I do? who should I talk to? Can we work together?

Two gentlemen:
Bob Richards
Todd Hawley?
Met them and they became buddies for life.
Space Generation Foundation.
ISU
Partners for life in venture after venture. Community is level of conversation, trust and dreaming that is really important to maintain.
We had a chance [shedding jacket] to meet Arthur C. Clarke
and I didn't know who he was -- an author.
Bob and Todd were in awe.
So we started talking to him. He suddenly left.
We were at the podium.
I said, I bet Arthur is going to buy us dinner tonight.
I said, \"I would really love if we bought you dinner tonight.\" So, of course, he bought.
In the 40s / 50s he met all the people in space.
Community was so critical to him.

ISU was community of like-minded individuals.
Idea was to have an orbital campus. Way too audacious to put forward.
First step would be summer programs.

Phase 1 was vision - 3 parts summer, travel around world and orbital campus.
Whenever you have a vision - have incremental steps to get there.
Pull off first step. 
What you propose AND who you are.
Best predictor of whether you succeed is what you've done.
Founding conference.
By the skin of our teeth we did it.
In 1992, 5 years into summer program. Put out RFP to the world, taking bids that wants to build a building and fund our campus.
We had 7 cities put in decamillion proposals.
Stasbourg built this building [slide]. It was the audacity of asking that gave it to us.

Stone soup story. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stone_soup
One of my favorite business stories.
France in 1700s.
3 French army men come into town.
Soldiers are hungry. Villagers lock their doors. \"Anything to eat?\" No.
So they go to the next door and say, \"We're going to make stone soup. Do you have a cauldron?\"
Guy says, \"I have to see this. Sure\"
Ask next for water.
Then potatoes.
Then lamb.
Contributions from everyone.
\"Never knew stonesoup could taste so good.\"

Basic tenet: all starts as just idea. Get people to wonder with you. Make contributions.
ISU was our version of stone soup.
Still working on Phase 3.
We had this poster.
The head of aerospace said, \"I bet you want to put building 7 into orbit\"

We'll get there eventually.
Conversation is going to make this the most fun -- feel free to ask.

Realization that incremental steps -- and achieving those steps is critical.

Q: Audacity to ask. What enabled permanent campus of ISU?

5 summer sessions. 4 of the cities that bid had previously been host committees.
We'd left great impression in Stasbourg.

ISU Founding Conference. In our early 20's founding this university.
John McLucas (?) to head the finance committee. We told him what to say, but he spoke the words.

Sometimes it is who says things that matters. Delivery is sometimes more than half of the message you receive.
Some of you are there already.
Something to stand up and credential your ideas.
The more crazy, the more bona fides you will want.

Derek Jacoby: How do you do that with luminaries. How do you ask that?

How do you get those people to back us? They are people we met along the way. SEDS had been our training ground and where met people.
Space station program. Experience and relationships to fall back on.
Must be something they believe in. Mentor/mentee relationship, they want to help you.
There are many people that have started billion dollar companies and now after retirement, just sit around at home. And they would love to mentor you and are still interested in making contribution.
Whole cadre of people who would love to mentor you.
They had time to get involved.

Zero G was a journey.
One company started with Byron Lictenburg?
Had flow thousands of flights.
Listen, let's build a company.
Wrote original business plan: commercial Zero G flights.
I remember walking into FAA office. Take 747? up at 45 degrees, take them out of seatbelts and go over the top.
In 1993 we made our first presentation ... it took 11 years to get FAA approval.
A lot of times the audacious things you wanna do in life butt up against the rules and regulations.

People retire. Or die. People who inherent rules have no ability to modify them.
At the end of the day, we had to go to Marion Blakey, after waiting through 3 administrations. We were taking people to Russia. Much more commercial mindset.
I raised$500,000 in 1993. Spent over 5 years. Metering out a few pennies at a time.

To date - over 10,000 people flew. For Matrix 2/3. A whole bunch. Small handful have flown with us.

If you can raise $150K, 36 of you can go.
World's fastest weight loss program.. Followed by the world's fastest weight gain program. You go to 2x normal weight.

[video]
8:18
8:20 [applause]

Incredible feat. NASA had been flying for 30 years.
Sense of accomplishment was regulatory hurdles. Allowing public to do it.
Not just technology challenge. A lot of times there are regulatory hurdles.

FAA regulations did not exist when aviation started.
They could literally kill themselves.
But they could experiment.

Every time there was an accident,a new rule was written.
Slowly but surely, written in blood. 
If is didn't say it WAS allowed, it was disallowed.
Need to rewrite the rules.
I refused to give up.
In whatever you do, you have got to find something that you love so much, you aren't going to give up.

If I was going to do this just for a quick thrill and not because I loved it I would have given up a million times
Do you get that, just like Dan Barry applying to be an astronaut 13 years in a row

Whateve you do is going to be hard. Structure of society is going to stand in your way.
People won't invest in it.
It takes time.
Ultimate persistence. Viscosity.

Society has an extreme amount of viscosity
Q: Ever had to stop?
Yes. When I was doing something for money I was quick to shut down, ultimately I stopped doing things for the money. \"Follow Your Bliss\" - Joseph Campbell

Flying Stephen Hawking into Zero G. Using it to create a fundraiser for MLS.
Had to rewrite the rules and despite many naysayers that said it was too risky, this is why Peter started the company, to give those like Stephen who couldn't fly on a government plane the chance to experience zero G.

Killing ourselves by not taking risks

Thought raising money for X-Prize would have been easy - originally going to be called Virgin X-Prize

Everyone was infatuated with the thought of \"what if someone dies?\" \"Can anyone really do this?\"

Peter was raising small amounts of money but no one was coming up with the $10M even after visiting hundreds of companies.... then September 11th..... then Columbia crashed.... everyone says you should just give up.... he had a tremendous momentum of not giving up...

Heard about a hole-in-one insurance policy - on a golf course if you get a hole in one then you get a million dollars... they don't actually have the money but they pay the insurance company a premium of say $10K

proposed end date in 2005 - went around to insurance companies and got them to take a bet that by Jan 2005, they would get the $10M. If no one won by then, the insurance company would get the $3M.... problem is that he didn't have the $3M dollars.... he said that he would pay monthly installments - $50K Fridays - no money on Monday....

Read Anousheh Ansari in Fortune magazine, her dream was to fly in suborbital flight.... TA DA!!... wherever she was on the planet.... found her through her old HR(Human Resources) representative...

Extracted an oath from the HR rep that a package from Peter would be sent to the Ansari family vacationing in Hawaii... in honor of them they names the prize the Ansari X-Prize and paid....

MESSAGE: NOT GIVING UP!!! You have no idea how you are going to raise funding for you projects... you mayhave plans A/B/C, but you need to be ready to ahve plans D/E/F....J/K/L....

Call from insuance company... we will give you more time if the payoff is $5M instead of $10M... how about you pay us an extra $500K and we will put your logo on the side of the plane and become a sponsor? They paid $100K...

On the same day, Richard Branson said he would commercialize space flight....

Q: Do you ever sleep?
A: I don't give up because I love what I do so much

Q: Have you ever financed another prize with a hole in one insurance plan?
A: No, it was too hair-raising. We don't have the X-Prizes until we are fully funded.

Q: What did you say the day you met Ansari's?
A: Brought Lichtenberg with him, telling story, upfront with the risk... didn't say you're our only hope....

Rocket Racing League: reinventing racing in the 22nd Century
Went to Indy car race, got bored after a few minutes - I like to put rockets on things!! Point racing to the sky
Space is so expensive because we do so little of it....
Ethanol fuel
I'm not a sports guy. When people talk about sports I usually ask, is this the small round one or the pointy ball? But I saw a huge amount of revenue going into sports. And I started to think how I could tap into that to get revenue for the things I really cared about, such as rocket development.
You can race alongside the real racers using an iphone or software app. Rocket Racing might be the first \"paticipatory spectator sport.\"

The ultimate dream is to go to my barn and open it up and there's a spaceship and I can go fly to space whenever I want.

Q: what are the next milestones in space that you think need to happen.
A: One thing is we need cheap launch. One of the things I have been pushing is beam power. One of the biggest markets I'm excited about is asteroid mining. One concept I'm interested in is \"One planet living.\" (http://www.oneplanetliving.org/index.html) Today the population of earth uses 30% more resources than are available to us. If everyone on the planet wanted to live at the standards of North America, we'd need five planets' worth of resources. But that's a myopic view, we are not limited to the resources on earth. Earth is a crumb in a supermarket filled with resources. I think about the creation of those resources that will drive us.

Q: Distinction between personal and professional relationship?
A: Important to pick your partners, someone you respect and enjoy spending time with. When I find a team, when we go to develop the next project try to bring the same team. You'll make friendships here, come to respect that person's thinking, you'll ultimately respect and trust and enjoy that person.

Q: Are there institutions or organizations that you would not accept money from?
A: Yes. When you accept someone's money you have an implicit relationship with them, and that person is part of your organization. They can drive you in a direction you don't wanna go. Where the capital comes from is reasonably important. It's a very difficult thing. Because capital is so scarce, you're going to be tempted as heck to take the money.

Q: What is your view on Bigelow's technology of inflatable structures in space?
A: I think it's a logical and great idea. ISS is a great place but it's government-owned and -operated. So there's going to need to be other places for space tourists to go. So I think there is a market for it, absolutely.

Q: How do you balance following your dreams and passions which can be really expensive with near-term money needs and the reality you have of living today.
A: Stage your way there. The 10^9+ idea came out of faculty meeting. We asked do we ask the students to do a near-term project that they can have success on, or do we ask them to do something really big? e.g. Gettaround is near-term but the idea is much larger

Q: To what extent is SU a stepping-stone to space, being earthbound in its missions
A: I have been since my childhood a space cadet, it's been my guiding shining star. Then around the early 90's I had this realization that exponential tech is changing everything. It was the first time that something rocked my world. And I said, before we get to space, the Earth is going to be something new. Our going into space is an important safety relief valve for the dangers of exponentials as we go into space. So for me it is earthbound and spacebound, but it's understanding the impact that these technologies have on us.

[end of presentation]

Instant Evaluation:
https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/gsp10/feedback/week-2

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Innovation-and-Breakthroughs-by-Peter-Diamandis
" Innovation and Breakthroughs
Peter Diamandis

7:38 Safety briefing

7:40 Salim: Helluva day today.
You are in for quite a treat.
SU is Peter's brainwave. 
His passion and energy has carried us through.
With HUGE pleasure that I welcome Peter.

Peter:
Exponentially Technology
Executive Program
9 day / 4 day
(October & December 2010)
marketing@SingularityU.org

We invite heads of goverment and executives.
The business model for SU is that the money made from the Exec Programs allows scholarships for the summer program.
Realy important for us.
We're building this university with all of your help, so we're
Looking to start marketing programs.
We want to make sure these are not just from the Bay Area but around the world
We'ld like your help.
If you know an organization or an individual that would be a great marketing partner, we'd like you to get in touch with us about that.
Marketing at Singularity U . org goes to Kieth Powers and Rob.

If you could take that down and have any ideas, help us!
If you know any executives that you think would like the Executive program ... help us.
Again, it is part of the economic engine.

Q: Kind of person you want in summer ....

45 executives came. Entrepreneurs came. $15,000 for 9 days. Not cheap.
A: Last EP, we had about 45 execs who came. It's not a cheap program, it's $15K including housing and food. About a third were CEOs or CTOs of existing companies. Many hedge funds, a few leaders from gov't.
A mix of folks. Same faculty. Very intense for 9 days.

Next thing. Passionate about ring.
Doing another iteration this year.

The ring design is based on the MIT ring form factor.

Anybody have an MIT ring here?

Davidad: YEAH! (Hey, I'm proud of my univ.)

Got some nice features. Very distinctive. Working with Susan with our designer.
Two options. Want to get some feedback.
Flat rectangular face.

10^9+ one with rocket. Or, if not into space motif, the earth.

Side of ring has GSP10. Building has 10 leaves on bottom.
Stars represent founders.

On sides, 2010 in binary. [Note: Rod wanted us to suggest that the binary be byte-aligned - 8 or 16 bits, rather than 10.]

NANO INFO BIO tracks on the side.

How many like A, versus B. Nice thing is, we'll try and do both.

: Printed design out today.
Andrew: It is awesome.

Just wanted to give you that.

Many of you know me as the cofounder and chairman.
I have another title.
Uncle Peter. Two neices here. Alexia and Katerina(?)... to come up here.
[applause]
Birthday is monday, so I decided to embarass you now.
[Happy Birthday sung]
Cupcakes for everybody.
Interns at AMES and SU.

Alright.

Now that the fun stuff is done, I want to jump into our conversation.

===Actual talk starts here===
The best way to predict the future is to create it yourself.
======================

This is what drives me.

I'm tired of having people complain.
Our ethos here at SU is: Go out and fix them!
Peter's laws. 

We are living in a future that we individually and organizationally create. Every problem on this planet can in fact be solved by the right combo of people, capital, and tech.
Every problem on this planet can be solved by right combination of people,
capital.

Most critical thing is the individuals.
If you have the right people and tech, you'll attract the capital. It's called VC.
If you have the right people and the capital, you can create the tech.
But technology and money without the right people is useless.

The first part of solving these problems is believing in your heart that you can. If you don't believe you can solve it, you can't.

Do I really believe I can do it? Psych yourself up.

I have been passionate about opening the space frontier.

A calling.

Only one other time 100s of millions of years ago when life moved onto land.
We are moving into multiplanet species.

Deep field view from Hubble.

They pointed Hubble at the deepest part of the sky and did a long-duration exposure. Every point in this photo (looking like stars) is a galaxy.

So we live in a galaxy of 100 bn stars. 100 bn galaxies.
I want you to put yourself in the mindset that, as a species, we are sooo young.
And as a technological species, we are just born.
How old are we as a technological species? Maybe 100 years old?
Do we really know anything yet?
I mean, seriously?
We may think we know what we know. Laws that are immutable until they are broken.
We are young and we have so much to discover.
But we're so young, and on such a rapid growth curve.

We used to think black holes were rare. Now, causation at the center of every galaxy.

Then we wondered if there were really other planets.
And now every place we look, there are other planets.

As humans we have to recognize our cognitive biases and protect ourselves from that.
And we think we're so special, and we think conditions are always so unique,
But we are I think in a universe teeming with life. That is my personal bias.
That's my personal bias, that it's out there.
If you think aobut the heaviest atoms in our body, maybe iodine.
They're not very high on the periodic table.
Those atoms existed about a billion years after the big bang.
Imagine what life is like 5 billion yeras more advanced than us.
What's a billion years more advanced.
What's even a thousand years, let alone a million or a billion?

I think about taking the human race off planet.
All the technologies you are learning about are going to give us the ability to terrform large bodies.
Can we create large structures transparent to light but not radiation, perhaps?
Are we going to create lakes.
The cooest thing about living on this moon base is that humans can strap on wings and fly around. That would be really cool.
Holding the Olympics on a moon base- that would be really cool.

Or do we go to Mars and start to terraform Mars.
There are many ways to terraform Mars...asteroids, nukes on the South Pole...
X Prize for a bacterium that can grow and thrive in the Martian environment.
And then, extra points if it tastes good [just as cupcakes come around].

\"Why in the world, once we get out of the gravity well of Earth, would we want to go back into a gravity well of Earth or Mars?\"

Basically O'Neil sphere, O'Neill colonies. Build living conditions.

The cool thing about the living conditions here is that if you put on those wings and fly on the axis of rotation, you're weightless.
The closer you move to the center the lower the gravity, the older you get the closer to the center you can move.

I spoke about this before.
The notion that the human race evolved under conditions that were local and linear. Meaning that local -
When we were living in caves and living in small colonies in africa in small tribes.
We didn't venture more than a day's walk. No readon to unless you had to.
And what you really cared about was the people within a small radius.
And you didn't have the ability - the brain did not really drive the ability to think about large populations of people - thousands or millions.
We small about small groups generally 100s or thousands of individuals.
It drives -
Why do people respond for Save the Children with one photo of a person.
Because psychologically our brain has evolved to hink about single individuals.
Why in the world does your mind focus on Britney Spears when she does something crazy
Instead of watching what is going on for scientific purposes.
Because or mind focuses on individuals in our tribe who are doing crazy things because their crazy things - whether infidelity or something else - affects us directly.

If someone threw a rock at us we had to predict where that rock would fall
So we have linear thinking in our mind.
But of course the world is global and exponential, and that is brand new.
It's not coded in our brain, and it's not coded in our DNA.
It is something which is unusual.
It is something that we need to think about.

The disruptive changes we have had are about the mismatch of our local, linear thinking
versus the exponential and global realities of the world we live in.
It's only gonna get worse and become more difficult and create enormous disruptions that we have to think about

An example of Exponential Growth...
From the start of time to 2003 we made 5 exabytes.
In 2010 we create 5 exobytes in 2 days.
2013 5 exobytes in ~10 min

An example of Exponential Growth...
From the start of time to 2003 we made 5 exabytes.
Huge onslaught of information.
Our ability to manage will be part of disruptive challenge that we have.
One of the most profound things is going to be when a billion new minds come online.
What's possible when that hapens?
This is an image of a friend of mine, the last human on the moon.
How sad is that?

Until one of you go back.
This is December 1972. That was almost 40 years ago.

This is Gene Sirnan.
December 1972. 40 years ago.
Has 400 pounds of equipment on his back.
And he's jumping a meter off the ground in 1/6 gravity.

There were debates in medical journals about whether the brain could work outisde the magnetic field of the earth, because it's an electromagnetic organ. Or whethere people would be able to swallow their food due to zero G
This really shocks me. Anyone visiting a fraternity can see people drinking a bottle of beer while standing on their head.

If we could have gone from never putting anyone into space to landing on the moon in 9 years, you tell me what's impossible. Nothing! Nothing is impossible.

Here is the kicker. In 1961, when JFK said we were going to the moon
THe people that were hired to build the navigation, guidance, rockets, propulsion
All the elements required to go to the moon, which did not exist! were 
Average age 27-28 years old.
There was no one there to tell them what could not be done.
They were your age. Imagine you've got the budget. 
The best technology you have is a slide rule
Go to the MOON.
In 9 years.
Is it possible?
Of course it is possible, it was done.

Don't tell me we can't solve water, pandemics

We can solve any of that. 
The proof of concept is here. It's the focus of will, the focus of the goal we're going after that is the absolute critical component here.

Move forward 30 years. Early 90s Dot com revolution. 
The average age of engineers who created that were early 20s.
People who left school and created these companies
Guys. It is a matter of focus of will.
Of what you want to do.
What I fully believe is possible is to create a world of

ABUNDANCE (of)
-communications
-energy
-water
-food
-resources
-education
-health care
-housing

All 6 7 8 9 billion people on this planet
have the comms, energy, water, food, resources, education, health care, and housing they need
to live a life of abundance.

This is the conversation I want to enter into with you tonight.
and over the course of this summer.

Steven [??], book partner
[applause]

He wrote a few books. He's here doing an article as well, \"7 technologies that will save the world.\" uh, for Playboy.

Over the course of this summer we would love your guidance
Let's dive into this a little bit.
What does world of abundance mean?

We would love your ideas.

It probably involves stable government as well.
I would say if someone had all these things they would be living in a world of abundance.

On average 100 years ago, 1880-1910, 

Elements of life and how much it cost in a person's time.
We have this time on this planet.
So, we go from

Effect of tech on our lives ...
Transport Boston->Chicago:
Then, 1 month's wage.
Now 1/2 day's wage.

A 3 minute Phone call NY>LA
Then 19 hrs of work
Now \x3c2 min of work

A kWh of electricity
Then 1 hr wage
Now \x3c5 minutes wage

5,000 lumen-hours of light
Then 1 hr wage
Now [??]

Our ability to move is becoming more efficient by orders of magnitute.

Ultimately, in the Star Trek universe, all this is free.

How brilliant Gene Roddenberry was to think about that

Cornelius Vanderbilt, other billionaires, didn't have any of this:
refridgerators, cars, TV.
Now 99% of the poor have these things. We're redefining constantly what poverty means.
And that's an interesting conversation

So, in abundance, we have already tackled communications. If you stop and you think about these, these warriors in Africa with a cellphone, have better communications today than the POTUS had 30 years ago. Oh my god, what does that mean.
And on Google, have access to more information than the POTUS did 15 years ago.

Would you agree with me on that?

Energy.
We talked about it this week.
Here are some Kurzweilian graphs

On the top axis you've got the cost per watt falling exponentially.
Now that wouldn't matter unless you have the production of sollar also growing exponentially
But luckily we do!

274 million gigawatt-years of solar energy hits the surface of the Earth each year.
Humanity consumes today, about 10,000 gW years. Challenge is it is not in usable form. 

Often when we think about scarcity of resources, it isn't scarcity it's scarcity in usable form. If technology is anything, it's the ability to Take something from form A and convert it to form B.

What technology is doing is turning our world of abundance into a world of *usable* abundance.

So 20,000x the solar energy hitting us.
Now imagine, if we have so much abundant energy - 
There will be breakthroughs in fusion, as well as micronuclear reactors
And it is completely and totally conceivable that in 20 or 30 years time

I think it's way before 50 years, Energy will be free. It will be whatever you need.
Once energy is literally free, there will be a cascade of events:
\"Water water everywhere and not a drop to drink\"

97.3% of water on this planet is salt water.
Important. Only 2.7% of the water on this planet is fresh water. 

But ist's a little bit more dramatic than just that. Over [??] is locked up in polar ice, which means 0.7 is available for us to drink.
2% locked in polar ice.

So we're fighting over water. we're fighting over the .7% that's out there
We could desalinate water. But if we had enough energy, we could quadruple the amount of water available.
by desalinating water

Water is an energy problem. And food problems are water problems.
This cascade of events that occurs.We are moving as a species from evolution by selection
You get what you incentivize, to evolution by intelligent direction.
What do I mean by that?
We have been eating food that just happened to be available for us.
That food did not develop to feed humans. When the plants and animals were developing millions of years ago, they weren't evolving to optimal human nutrition.

They have

But photosynthesis at 1-2% efficiency at turning water into hydrocarbons
That's pretty poor. What if we could make that % efficient. Wouldn't that help solve our problem?

I think of food as a reasonably effective product until we make it better. And our ability with abundant energy and water
To make food far more efficient in its nutritional content and its ability to convert sunlight into something that is absolutely doable.
so once again it's not a matter of the food out there It is converting it into useable form.
We live in a world of abundance, it's just not in the form that we need right now, and we have to actively convert it.

So how do we achieve this world of abundance. There are four different forces at play that all interrelate.

One is exponential technology

Ray is here to talk about it, he is the...what, the godfather of exponential tech?
It is literally an unstopable source. It is going to get faster and faster As population grows and densifies,
and as our ability to [??]
So, if you think about the fact that technology comes about because we are a trading species.
Because we communicate, because we share ideas And, as Matt Ridley says, Ideas have sex 
And in the combination of this, new ideas come out. And that's a very powerful concept. [??]
As humans actually densify The fact that we bring 80 of you together and you are speaking together.
That's where new ideas come from. As humanity moves from [??] into cities. That's going to pick up the rate of tech growth

As we have the internet as the biggest boom to rapid communications. ebay, as we start to do rapid integrations on cycles,
Our growth rate on tech the curve of the exponential is going to continue to grow

The next thing is the bottom billion. They become a consuming force. As a consuming force, we had at our opening ceremonies a gentleman from Nokia. Their market is in Africa, India, Their largest market is the developing world.
Because they're consuming this technology.And because they can't afford it, they drive the price down.
That bottom billion will drive cheaper products. Technology billionaires, another force in itself.
100 yearss ago the robber barons put their names on buildings. That was great.
The tech billionaires today are going to solve malaria, TB, smallpox, whatever it may be.
I've been lucky to make this money in the online world, the tech world. I want to use this money to solve the world's biggest problems.
Warren Buffett, Bill Gates said they'd donate half their money to charities.
And the final part. the part that I focused my life on, is DIY small groups. You guys. Ability you have to change the world.
Period. That's the biggest force combined with exponential tech.

What drives breakthroughs.
What drives people to do crazy things?

Day before breakthrough, it is a crazy idea.
If it were not a crazy idea, it wouldn't be a breakthrough. a computer that is 10-20 % faster is not a breakthrough

Going from vacuum tubes to silicon That's a breakthrough.
What dives people to do that?
First is fear. Fear is problably one of the strongest motivators, unfortunately.
It is the brain. The amygdala
It is the fact that we are constantly sensing the world for danger. Our adrenaline goes up, we take action.
Another motivator is curiousity. 
it's a weak motivator. Is there life out there in the universe?
Let's find out what causes Bernoulli's forces
In the US and probably in Europe you can measure the ratio of fear to curiosity.
It's the ratio of the defense budget tot he science budget
I'm just back from Norway
And I wantyou to think, putting aside what's going on in the Gulf today, t

The audacity of building these deep sea platforms and then moving them to the other side of the planet.
Setting them up in the middle of the ocean and then boring down another [??] miles into the sea floor
Insane.
I was at Shell oil yesterday, speaking with chief of exploration there.

And they found it in about 4000 feet of water.
The deepest they had been drilling was a few hundred[?]

Now they are in 4000 feet of sea water.

They had never done anything close.They estimated it would take a billion dollars to try.

The average VC capital is $?
To go and pull that stuff out of the ground.
That's wealth as a driver to taking risk and driving breakthroughs.
We'll come back to that when we talk about asteroid money later.

The fourth major driver is significance.
It's the human mind, the dedication to say: I'm going to make this happen.
I've been successful now I want to be significant

Driving people from success to significance.

Take those risks. Go and make that happen.
It was Lindberg that inspired me.
It turns out that a Frenchman [??] born in Paris, moved to NY grew up between 1909 and 1919.
WWI was when airplanes first made their appearance He offered a prize for the first person to fly from NY to Paris.
He was ridiculed in the papers, but it turned out that Over the next number of years 9 different teams spent $400,000 to win this guy's $25,000 prize. and Lindburgh was so inexperienced at flying
Noone would sell him an airplane, or an engine. He Went to San Diego and Bought and coverted a mail plane.
In fac,t the dramatic demonstration of his doing this, drove the traffic of airline flights to 180,000 a 30-fold increase.
to 180,000.
Longitude prize in 1700's.
British admiralty had been losing ships. Because you can tell your latitude but not your longitude, and you'd crash into the rocks.
So they put up a prize, the first person who could tell longitude with greater precision. and they thought it was going to be won by an astronomer. They were so biased in who they thought would solve it, that they didn't want to pay a watchmaker. But he won.
For me, I had given up on becoming an astronaut.
I had been told by my friends your chances are 1 / 1000
Half the astronauts had never flown.
I never applied, but I did commit myself to going privately. which has fueled a few other things.

$10 m is enough money to attrack entrreneurs but not the Boeings, the Lockheeds.

A 3 -person spaceship meant that they could go into business immediately, with a pilot and 2 passengers or an autopilot and 3 very brave passengers. 100 km altitude was officially space by our definition of it. 26 teams from arround the world who spent 100 million to win the prize

Best of all, rather than backing a single solution, We had a brand new generation of private spaceship designs.
The day the prize was won, the Google website showed SpaceShipOne. Almost took down our website.
The winning vehicle, Spaceship 1, is now hanging in the Smithsonian above the Apollo capsule, and Right next to Spirit of St. Louis.
I want to show you a short video. I never tire of seeing. Let's take a look what happened during that magical summer

[Xprize video]
\"An incentivized competition can change the world.

You are going to witness history in the making.\"
[applause]

To get small groups to do things is a powerful idea.

Paul Allen ended up backing Burt Rutan. And his team of scaled composites was 28 people, avg age around thirty. Designing everything and building a private spaceship. pretty cool huh, imagine dividing the group into thirds and go build a space ship
Other prizes, real quick just to get into your mind that you can do anything you want to do.
This is a supply line in the defense dep't, which carries supplies from a port to the front lines. 
In 2001 after 9/11,
DARPA said we need to automate these. It turns out that in 19?? the gov. tried building autonomous vehicles
And the best they got were vehicles that were travelling 4, 5 miles an hour. the hardest part still had to be done by humans.
So they put up a prize, originally [??] then [??]

A lot of university teams. 
And the winning vehicle, called Stanley, came from the Stanford team, not far from here, and you'll be hearing from the head of the team, Sebastian [??]. And, here is what is interesting, Remember I said $200 million and 20 years of effort? 100% autonomous. No humans in the loop. 
The second year they ran it 5 or 6 teams completed it as many as 5 teams. And the Stanley team here built their vehicle in 1 year for $500,000 in cash.
Contrast the 20 years and $200 million with the 1 year and 0.5 M.
Of course they built on the capabilities that were done before.
But I want you to recognize the power that a group of smart, young thinking individuals can bring to a problem.
Another idea. One of our US board members, Rob McCuen?

Rob is in the gold mining business.
Rob is Canadian, Go Canada. Rob is in the gold mining business. In 2000, he bought a gold mine up in Ontario
and he said to his scientists: Where is all the gold located? How am I going to get it out?

They basically said, we're not really sure. What do you mean you're not really sure
Now, he had just come back from an MIT program on OSS, on Linux. And he had know about the Xprize
I got an idea. What if I take all the geological data from our mines which we normally keep in our safe
and I put it on the Web? and I say, I'll pay you half a million dollars if you show me where I'm going to find the next 6 million oz of gold?
and he did that and the value of his company went from 50 mill went to 2.7 bn dollars. 3 top teams showed hime where to find 6 million ounces of gold. That's a lot of money. So the open network, the concept of open-sourcing knowledge, is a very powerful idea.
Something you should think about in your TPs and in your lives.

Very powerful idea.

So X- prize is about radical breakthroughs. You'll hear from Cisco.
And when we develop incentive prizes, we look for things that are stuck - where there are market variables.
Looking for a set of clear achievable goals, something that takes less than 10 years define the problem but not the soultion
We launch above the line of super credibility. We use a deadline sometimes. Try to make a prize that's telegenic - fun to watch.
Allow the teams to keep the IP. If we do our job right we attract capital we attract genius, allow them to make failurs and take risks
we launch a new industry. GUYS you have to take risk.

if you don't take risk you're not going to have breakthroughs. I remember when I was announcing the X Prize
I was in Congress, and I was talking about the foundation and what our rules were and 

One of the congresswoman stood up and said, \"Dr. Diamandis
Isn't this going to cause people to lose thier lives?\"
Yes, this is risky business! People could lose their lives doing this.
I said 
\"Oh my god, when did this happen 500 years ago Europeans risked their lives and sailed to this country.
200 yrs ago we risked our lives to go West. And now on the cusp of the greatest exploration opportunity in history we can't risk our lives?\" She withdrew her question.
You must take failure as the only option you have. If you're not failing, you're not trying hard enough.
Push your boundaries.
Incentive prizes have attributes that are really valuble.
You get 10-40x the prize purse.
We put up $10mln, $100bln were spent. The Cramer prize has about a 40x multiplier. Cramer prize had a 40x multiplier.
If you do things right you only pay the winner. Rather than backing a single approach, you back the entire field.
You may not know the approach you are backing is the best one.
You hope it's the right one and returns your investment. It turns out in the venture world in the past 30 years it hasn't...
But in this way, you back all of the successful teams.But ultimately, innovation and success is a state of mind.

Let's talk about that.
I mentioned this earlier: If you think something is impossible, it is impossible for you.
It's impossible for you. And I can't stress that enough. You have to go into the game thinking you can win.
All you have to do is look at the amazing miracles time after time after time.
Henry Ford said \"the moment one gets into the 'expert state of mind' a great number of things become impossible\"
And I believe that. An expert is someone who tells you what can't be done.

Why do people resist failure?

Shame
Personal reputation
Cost
Educated like that -- much more European mindset
Making pictures of the downside, blocking out the positive
Downside of failure
Personal loss of capital, self esteem
Loss of time.

Oh my god, I've spent years of my life doing this! Lost. I can't fail. I've invested all of this time.
Which as an entreprenur is a Really dangerous corner to get to. Knowing when to give up is a really important thing

Next Wednesday I'll be talking about entrepreneurship, giving my personal anecdotes
Fireside chats.
So, knowing when to cut and run. Especially when it's not your money but investors' money.
Embarrasment, reputation, shame, all of these thing.
So, ultimately, there's ways around that. How do you innovate.

First of all, set expectations
... this is really risky, this could fail
But if it succeeds, it will be HUGE.
There are people who will back you when you are honest about it.

Someone I think is an amazing human
Raymond Tata, chairmans of Tata Iindustries
Has in his comapny an award for best failures
Best failures. Failed and learned something.
Someone who tried something but it was great ... and rewards that Fail often fail early. Improve a little bit at a time.

It's iterating, It's trying something over and over and over again and improving it a little bit each time.
3D printing, nanotech, DIYBio, etc. are amazing opportunities for rapid iteration.
If you onlly have $5,000 and amonth of time. Do you care if you fail? A little bit.
But you care a heck of a lot less than if you have $5mln invested and 5 yr of time.

So if you can design what you are doing to try rapid fire ... try and try and try
And you learn each time that's a great way to innovate
Groups 5/5/5 - Within a company you got $5K, 5 weeks to get 5 ideas tested.

And, for us, using incentive prizes.
If nobody does it, well, you're disappointed [...]
But if someone does do it, well, what a great return!
So, how do you maximize your chance of success.

I think of them as Darwinian.
Adaptablitiy / flexibility
Multi-disciplinary
Iterative design, fail often, fail early
Have no other choice
Burn the ships! 
Drop a 0 from your budget

Why?
Power of constraints.. You only have a day.
Or as they said on Apollo 13, you only have the stuff in this box! you only have 10 percent of the moeny if you don't constrain the problem you get lazy. So, small groups, young age, mixed with some older advice.
People who don't know what can't be done. that hopefully is you guys. Diverse backgrounds.
A breakthrough comes from orthogonal thinking.
When someone who is a physicist comes in to a biological problem and says. Why don't we do it this way? \"OMG i never thought about that way\"

Steve Jobs: \"Im going to put a dent in the Universe.\"
Isolation from the hole. So when the PC was being made by IBM. or when the iPod iTunes were being made by apple
Do they leave them where they are? No! They take them out of headquarters and shove pizzas under the door.

Because they're going to say \"You can't do that\"
No one wants to have someone be so far innovative that they look silly. Isolate the team

I think about these as Darwinian principles. If Darwin said to you, What are the principles that drive evolution of a species?

Small population sizes
[?]
Geographic isolation. Those are the things Darwin [something]
Small groups. No management structure..

Isolated and high population pressure.If you don't do this, we die.

Shouted: How about collaboration though?
Collaboration among disciplines in a group is important, but Competition, where there is that pressure, is good too.
You're going to see cooperation and competition maximized in different places.

Let's talk about that in Q&A. Born above the line of supercredibility. 
If you're putting forward a crazy idea, how that idea is announced is equally important as the idea itself.

How that crazy idea is announced is equally as important as that idea itself
So, imagine there is this line of credibility If I said to you, \"tomorrow I'll fly to Japan\", hey that could happen. If I said tomorrow I'm flying to mars that's not credible. Then there's this line of super-credibility. If tomorrow Bill Gates said \"tomorrow I'm funding a mission to Mars to go in 5 years\" everyone would say \"oh my god I want to go!\" There is this line, he's above this line of supercredibiltiy.

Above the line of supercredibility, It takes off immediately. So far example when I announced the Ansari X Prize in 1996, I was on the Stage in St. Louis, On my left side the NASA administrator On my right side I had the admin of the FAA. 
I had the Lindberg family, I had no money. Amazing teams. I didn't have any money, and I had no registerd teams. 
It was born above the line of supercredibility. And that allowed a risk idea to be given birth. Get that idea? How we enter the human consciousness if very important.

We have an incredible competition funded by our partners Google. Google Lunar Xprize. 
$30 mln, build a robot, launch it, land on the surface of the moon, Rove a half a KM and take more videos.
That's all you got to do, and you got 30 million bucks. We have 21 amazing teams. Some in audience.
This is a way of bringing down the price of going to the Moon and asteroids by and order or two of magnitute.

Literally today I was on the phone an hour ago getting an update 136 vehicles. The fastest most efficient production cars on the planet.
We're in the middle of the competiton now. Down to the top 30 teams. And these cars all have to be the fasted cars while still doing over 100 mpg equivalent. We created a new metric called MPGE - miles per gallon equivalent, to compare electric, gas, diesel, hybrid, etc.
So, where are we going next?
As I talk about abundance, here are some of the places that we're going to next.
One is an X Prize that I'm passionate about for an AI physician.
Imagine an artificial intelligence that can speak and listen just like we are now
That technology is here now and getting better literally day after day.
Imagine if that AI could diagnose you
as it's talking to you 
better than a group of 10 board-certified doctors.
What is interesting is that anyone with a cell phone can call these doctors.
By 2013 over 70% of Africans with a cellphone
It speaks Swahili and Mandarin.You''re a pregnant mother, you need to know what to do?
You just call and have a conversation.

We are also working on a tricorder Xprize. Cell phone size device that can take your blood pressure and other bloodwork
That in combination with an Ai physician provides vital medical care.
We're looking at an ocean plastics XPrize. Fully biodegradable in oceans.

Bionics X Prize: the concept is imagine a set of bionic legs that someone who's lost their legs, or use of their legs, or is 85-90 years old and is bedridden.
Lets them get in a care, use a toilet on their own, walk through the woods. To win the competition, you have to race up and then back down a mountain. Imagne a set of bionic legs. and do the normal things Get into a car. Climb stairs. Walk through woods. but to win this competition you have to race up and down a mountain: Being done in Europe. I work with that company.
But that's not full loss of legs it's an amplifier, yes? So this is something for someone who is paraplegic.

Low Cost Housing X Prize. 
Build a 500 sq ft house in under 12 hours that has
Door, window, toilet, internet, 
survives earthquakes and build 50 houses in 25 days

Autonomous Car X Prize
The first autonomous car to win agains the top-seated human driver
in a Grand Prix race.

The future is not people driving cars. The reason we drive a 4000 lb car is to protect us from an SUV.
The reason we drive 2 ton cars is because of the others driving 2 ton cars arround us

Cars all go down 1-on-1 instead of fanning out because they don't know where they are.
Lots of savings of lives, fuel, time, etc.

Deep Ocean Submersibles
Stay down for hours.

An electric aircraft X Challenge
Fly DC to Oshkosh fully electric carrying two people.
Every year you have to beat last year's time by 15 minutes.
$1 m dollar, rather than $10 m prizes.

A prize I am hoping to launch in the next few months:
Vission surrogate X-prize
Right now all they have access to is a walking stick and a seeing eye dog
imagine a pience of tech that allows them to enter a room
Find an open chair, find a clock, find a coffee mug, find the numbers on the building...
Basically be able to see the things they want to be able to see most.
So we're looking at an X Challenge in that arena.

Another short video.
ELIMINATE WHEELCHAIRS!
$10 million = do some good
$10 million X Prize =
CHANGE THE WORLD

This is the comparison of how exponential tech is changing things economically.
X-15 program [??] dollars took one person to 160 km.
SpaceShipOne was [??] dollars taking 3 people, so [??] times the performance

When you were royalty hundreds of years ago, when your friends came over you'd pull out silver plates. When other royalty came over you'd pull out the gold plates. When the highest of royalty came over you'd pull out the aluminum plates.

Ag - > Au - > Al

Aluminum used to be one of the scarcest resources.
Then we cracked the problem of Aluminum. Think about aluminum when you think about food and water.

Resources
Our earth is a crumb in a super market full of resources
When we stop and we say we don't have resources on this planet, or we're running out of resources

I want you to stop and say it is WRONG that we are running out of resources.
You're thinking is too small, we are living in a solar system
And a universe filled with resources.

People say we don't have enough rare earth metals to build the computers, the cell phones, the flat screen TVs, whatever.

That may be true in the mines we have
but these asteroids of which there are thousands and millions more than we need.

Literally planetary cores, 1000s of times enriched. Nickel Iron-Ore ; an average .5 km wide S-type asteroid
is worth on the average of 20-30 trillion dollars in platinum metals.

The difficulty is it's very expensive to get into space today
[...] I put the number close to $1bln/launch, $120mln/person.

It is expensive to get into space. Small experiment here to figure out the energy it takes if you launched one of you plus your spacesuits to orbit at 27,400 km/h.

1.6 Megawatts
If we bought the energy off the grid, the cost is US$100 in energy terms.
Cost to put you in space is $100.

From $100bln to $100.
Can we do that?
We may need some new physics.
We're just 100 years old as a tech. species.
What do we really know?

Beam power. Dmitry working on this.
Instead of carrying the fuel,...
the problem with traditional rockets is they're linear.
[...]
How much of the cost of a launch is fuel? What percentage?
Answer is less than 1%. 
What's 80% of the cost of a rocket?
People.
As labor rates go up, so to the cost of rockets, which is why they get more expensive with time.
Need to be reusable. Need to be efficient.

They're not on Moore's Law.
If we instead put the propulsion energy on the ground in phased-array lasers - which are on Moore's Law - you beam the energy, heat the fuel, and burn it out. We'll talk more about this later.

Bottom line, every problem can be solved, bar none. It is matter of whether you focus on it.
Bring to bear the power of the technology, and the people.

Thank you.
[Lots of applause.]

Q&A:

I'd love to take questions.
Maybe head to 583?

Q: When do we start?
We have started. You're here!

Q: how did you fund the x prizes?
I want to share with you the projects. That will be in a series of chairman's chats this summer.

Q: Where, outside US?

All Xprizes are open to anyone on the planet.
we are getting ready to start Xprize India starting this year
With support of Ratan Tata.
Looking to go into Europe, Asia.

I cannot pretend to sit in Santa Monica thinking I understand the real challenges in Bombai

Q: Personal goal?

I don't have a final personal goal beacuse I hope I will live longer and longer
I would love to walk on the lunar surface privately funded

First people to go privately to the moon. That would be huge for me.

We can experiment with new forms of government : pure capitalism, pure democracy

Great late night convesation: where would you go and how could you start a new country on earth?

Q: Grand challenges seem to have two different views: technology needed / not?
How many have the Xprizes needed new technolgy.

Focus or create? Answer is both. In case of Ansari.
I want to point it out, in the Ansari X-Prize
tech that Burt Rutan used was around before.

It could have been done. The autocad they used. It got easier - less and less people and money - over time.
It was a matter of crystalizing it. but at the same time one of the things I realized, when you're coming up with solutions,
Think about the cell phone situation. What cause it to proliferate. An unstoppable force. You must create a solution that can go viral.

How do you create your water, energy, solutions to be
Almost viral in nature. If you have to keep pushing, it won't spread.
It has to be a solution that people go \"I want that, and you need it as well.\"

Does that make sense?
[Yes]
Q: Formula. Work for any problem?
Great question. The answer is no, absolutely not. I'm very clear, and I should have said earlier:
Incentized prizes work for certain problems.
I have a hammer and so I'm looking for nails.
It doesn't solve all problems but it's a useful tool for solving problems.

Q: How do you differentiate?

It's clear, it's measurable,...we can talk more about it later.

Q: Are there fundamental differences between an XPrize team or an entrepreneurial venture?

i would say mostly not, except for typically if we've done our job right with an XPrize we've hit an emotional core that is really really exciting, Hitting your childhood passions, maybe something that will give you great fame...you're not just doing it for the economic return.

Q: You said that something that starts over the supercredibility line will have success.

It will be immediately perceived as being supercredible, that it has a great potential for success. That doesn't mean it will be a success. If people believe you're going to be successful, it increases your chances a great deal, because people want to help you to be affiliated with you.

Q: You talk about age of abundance. What do you see as threats to that coming about?

I would love to know what you guys think about that, over a beer or wine or whatever, get your feedback. I think about gov't structure, I think about war, I think about the things that would cause economic collapses. It doesn't mean that you can't return back to baseline, but I think the technologies that are causing this exponential growth are also giving us democracy and also making us safer in many ways. But the same things that would cause economic hardships would cause abundance to be put off.

Q: What do you do when not everybody agrees that what you are trying to fix is a problem?

First of all, you probably want to listen to them and figure out why they don't think it's a problem and make my own personal choice. If I think it is a problem, I'll go for it for myself, If I think it's not, I'll stop, because there's no reason to solve a problem that doesn't exist.

Q: Have you been able to predict Xprize winners? Or spot them? commonalities?

I will say that the teams that are able to raise capital - is still a serious factor in all of this. The other side of this is Admiral Bird was the front-runner in the prize to cross the Atlantic - first person to fly to North Pole - and he failed miserably. Lindbergh was the least likely - they called him the flying fool. The great thing about a prize is unpredictability.

Q: We have a communication technology that can resolve conflict. Have you thought about a prize to avoid war or even to achieve world peace?

I would love nothing more. I had a meeting with the [??] for Peace. Congressionally funded. We had this exact conversation. I would love a prize for that. The question is - you have to write the rules and say \"this is what a team has to do in a measurable way to win.\" When you run through the scenarios, it becomes a very very complex prize. Remember Google flu trends, when they could predict where flu was going to break out by where people searched for cough medicine? We thought about a prize that would look at news feed, search trends, and predict when a conflict would break out, because that would be concrete and measurable.

Q: Peter, after all these years talking to Ray, you haven't been able to convince him there is life out there. And he hasn't been able to convince you we are alone. Who is right and who is wrong.

Ray and I have had a standing conversation about - I have no question, I can't prove it, but I have no question that life is ubiquitious in the universe. Ray thinks that we are probably the best. There's no bet, but maybe we should make one.

Q: Portal. Xprize, IP whatever is done ...

There are open collaboration and open innovation portals. Innocentive is a great example I think they're great. I think they're different from what X Prize does. In that case the winning team [??] the intellectual property.

We're looking for, in this book, arguments for abundance, and potential problems for abundance. If you have ideas, please see Steven or myself and let's have that conversation.

peter@xprize.org

[applause]

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul12-WaterTP
"

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul14-Enernet
"7/14/2010 
Wednesday 
1:30 - 2:30 pm 
Enernet (Bob Metcalfe)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Metcalfe
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B2Ij9HPeinaFY2Q1YTQxZWYtODJiMC00YmY2LThhZGYtYjNkOTQ1Mzc2ZWI0&hl=en

Jose: We are going to see one of the most beautiful presenations about Energy. To show why Energy is the number one priority.
Where is Luke?
We discovered the MIT gene. We'll discover the Harvard gene, the Stanford gene.
Wrote thesis on Bob.

Creative genius and technology.
Born 1946 in Brooklyn.
Formulated Metcalfe's Law.
Sloan School of Mgmt.

Bob: Set expectations really low.
I don't stand a chance of satisfying your expectations.
Wish I could stay here the whole 10 weeks.
I'm from New York. I will be annoying. Sorry.

I will talk about Energy.
Any questions?
Q: What is the Enernet?
Great lead-in to this applied history project.

Q: How will we meet energy demands?

One of the hard questions.
I put solar at the top, nuclear right near it.
Tidal, wave, biomass.
Easy to be wrong about that

MIT prof - don't worry about wind power, the Reynolds number is too low.

Q: Sasha - energy abundance?

Internet, by analogy, gave us a squanderable amount of bandwidth.

Jose: Question #3?

Using 1 million times more energy use. Earth could not tolerate.
Two things wrong:
over looks hyperbole - I didn't mean literally a million times.
And it presumes the energy would be used ON EARTH.
Hope that completely guts the answer on the exam.

On Board that sold PowerPoint to MS for $14m
Bill Gates and I had a parting of the ways -- so this is a Keynote presenation.

Energy Initiative launched

Polaris Enertech Portfolio
List of firms
1366
Athenix
Ember
GreenFuel
Infinite Power
...

Some don't exist anymore.

Still an internet guy. This is the internet in 1974. The dots on the map are not cities or buildings This was a map of all the computers on the internet.

Analogizing of energy to internet:
Claude Shannon - used entropy.
old analogy - we'll make it work

- Internet used to build the internet

We could use the internet as a huge collaboration machine in solving energy.
Manage energy. 
Virtual meetings.
Infrastructure for innovation - we can hijack that to solve energy.

Enernet - 43 minutes to go
Lessons from ~64 years of internet history about meeting world needs for cheap and clean energy.

Those who do not study history are dommed to repeat it?
- George Santayana
Said something else ...

I was there.

Carlos Santan said, \"We've got to change our evil ways\"

- Internet Era?
1991 Gore Bill
When begin - 1946, invention of the transistor. Also the year I was born.
Internet / transistor and I are all 40 - hexadecimal [laughter]

-Manhattan project for energy?
Internet took decades. Still time for science.
If 3 year project - science has to already be there.
If 64 year project - avoid Hardening of the Categories.
AT&T - FCC regulated
Computing -
Internet destroyed dichotomy of computing and communication.

Voice \x3c> Video \x3c> Data
Voice was phones
Video was TV
Data was computers
That trichotomy was very damaging.
Now unified.

In energy - categorization failures.
Law of the US that corn ethanol is the fuel of choice.
Wrong feedstock and wrong fuel.
Miscategorization.
Majority of House / Senate and President all thought you could use food for fuel.
Failure of categorization.

Given decades of development - have to be careful.

Internet became a movement - gods, dogma, clergy - in 2000 the 7 most feared words were
\"You just don't get it do you\"

Energy is a movement. Look at parallels.
Ethernet was a movement - once controversial.
Yellow was the color of the Ethernet movement.
Energy has a color - GREEN.

Tom Friedman pointed out green has baggage.
Environmentalism, that's OK.
Anti-trade, -capitalism, -nuke, -hydro - bad choice of color.

BLACK - oil, coal.
Black is not a color.
WHITE - not a color

So I did some science. Plants absorb everything but green.
How about BLUE.

Ocean is 12,000 feet deep on average.
99% of life is in oceans.
So, don't do what universities are doing - Energy and the Environment.
Motion - environment green, energy blue.

Point us to the skies.
Person showing it to you wanted you to feel bad as an American.
Implication is: darken the Earth.
When solved - planet will be black.
This is a conservation slide - we should conserve.
We invented bandwidth sharing, compression.
We conserved bandwidth -
Do we use less than before? 50% more? 100% more? or a million times more? That's about right.
When we are done with Energy, we'll be using a lot more energy.
Conservation mentality may not be the right mindset.
SMATKA - 12 cyl Merc for a 3 cyl Merc.
That is not my wife. My wife is better looking.
Speaking of cars - this is a digression.
Lots of excess energy use in cars
You are used to windows - and mac - and cars.
If you turn wheel slightly at the wrong time,

64 years more - red car means mid-life crisis.
Electric motors, driven robotically - to avoid 1 million deaths.
And we won't own them. Will happen in my lifetime.
DMV
http://www.dmv.ca.gov/

transport bits, not atoms (meet virtually)

Big conference in Copenhagen was hypocrisy. Jets flying in - should have been teleconference.

- Internet Surprise - Timeshared Computer Utilities

\"Incestuous Traffic\" 
ASR 33 would print report on where traffic went.
MIT to UCLA -
biggest number - MIT to MIT. Had to delete that. Wasn't why we built internet.

A few years later - 4. Most traffic on the internet hardly leaves the building.
Big surprise.
Negroponte reversal - thought long haul would go through satellite. Wireless local, optical fibre long haul. Surprise.

- Internet Surprises (Bugs)
Quality of Service, Security, Economics and we are busy trying to fix it and it is not fixed yet.
When we build the Enernet Let's not make the same mistake. Lets build in all these from the begining.
24/7
High quality
Put a way to pay for it in.

Internet Bubble - peak in 2000 - march 11. That I remember.
Bubbles.
There are going to be energy bubbles.
Already have been.
I submit that global warming is a bubble.
Al Gore and I inflated the internet bubble. I know how to inflate a bubble.
He's back.
Now, with recent decline of Al Gore, this bubble may have burst.
Am I saying Earth is not getting warm? No.
Is Internet growing - rampant speculation.
Biofuels was driven into hysteria.
Global 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilamanjaro
1,200 year old ice is melting

Bubbles are Good, just make sure you have a chair to sit on when they burst.
We need them as a tool of innovation

PC bubble
spreadsheet bubble
C bubble
wireless, prior to wi-fi

Then come laws.
You heard a law: Rob
Bigger computers better
Moore's - smaller better
Metcalfe's - networks of computers are valuable

We need some laws to guide us.
Sachs Law -
Improvement of solar over 30 years. Almost a line.
Cheaper than coal? May already have happened.

Washington
Dept of Energy - Carter administration
Aimed in 1970s - budget passed $25 bn.
How are we doing in reducing dependance on foreign oil?
That was a mistake.
Problem was compounded with Nukes, they're coming back but haven't built any new ones in 30 years
No reactors.
Generating 20% of energy. None in 30 years.
Nuclear seems to be coming back.
Starting to see plans. May come back.
Because - 1 million times denser - that factor puts it on the list.
Inside of reactor - BLUE

Washington did help Internet.
Demonopolized AT&T and IBM.
TCIP
Major customer for first packet switches
and provided commercial availability of packet switching
Government did most important thing - fund research.

Research dollars paid off. 
Highest use of government dollars.
We should look at where we are parading towards DC for researh dollars
How? Where done?
Having observed internet history - not at corp laboratories.
Can' afford monopolies - least motivated.
Should we have our resaerch done be govt labs
Govt - marginally negative
Best place? Universities. 100 first class
This is where research has payed off the most
Univ well managed? No. They graduate students.
Students go out with innovations and they are the best vehicle for innovation.
Teams like this one.
CISCO Systems. \"The\" internet company.
Akamai. Prof and 2 students.

Researchers, early adoptors.
Energy system. Map - big and complicated.
The first lessons the internet teaches is layaring
- Like the Internet, the Smart Grid needs a standard layered architecture.
that's how we should start wiht the enernet fisrt with an architecture then with a layered structure

- Like the Internet, the Smart Grid needs to be distributed

- Smart Grid network topology?
The networks we design will need a different topology, the network will need to be prepared to exchange energy not just distribute it
- The Smart Gird should use the internet as its control plane, above its power plane, and not just an Internet, THE Internet.
All heard of the smart gird? It's in a bubble right now
The smart grid could be the excahnge layar of the enernet
Internet should be used as the control of the enernet

- Asynchronous power [skip]
- Storify the Smart Grid
When you typed in came out the other side of the world in 150 milli secs, it had to be that way
then packet switching, then servers, and memories in our PCs (cookies, cache)
early Energy storage was to pump it up hills, then batteries, capacitors, and maybe some day hydrogen storage

- Like the Internet, the Smart Grid needs not just WANs, but LANs, like ZigBee et al.
before we have effective energy management we need to handle energy locally as well

- You Tube - What will be energy's YouTubes?
Youtube was not in spec on internet, it was serendipity
If we had a squanderable abundance of energy what will we use it for? What will be the energy You Tubes?

- Energy, like information, is a factor of production, which in abundance will bring ever more economic output, freedom\x3c>prosperity
Energy is a function of abundance, in any economic model e is important, what if we reduced e by a facot of 10 in all of our models?

- Charles Simonyi rockets into Earth orbit on his first trip into space
Asked Space Adventures how much energy it would take to travel in space in 2070?
Did calc on envelope at airport, to have everyone traveling in space would be the amount of E we use on earth in total

- Energy for Personalized Medical Scanning and Genetic Sequencing

- Energy for potable water?
How much E to give 40 liters of clean water to everyone on earth by just boiling it? 7x total eneergy?
- Energy's YouTubes? Remove CO2.
Why don't we use cheap and abundant energy to remove it
- The end of the rainbow.

Brad: Comparisons. Are you looking at where the list breaks down?

Bob: Not making such a list. Core problem is intervention of thermodynamics. Physicists say,... laws of thermodynamics.

People will argue that energyis a commodity and dirt cheap.
There wasn't a YouTube that we had to replace.
That is just short term thinking.
We'll be doing new things with energy. Just as we did new things with bits.

Alison: If using internet for power management, would AI breakdown or kill itself? Things you don't know going to happen? Would we expect the unknowns to avoid hurting us?

Bob: Hmm. Not my job. A flippant answer.
Voices saying - privacy, etc. 
World better if we get it connected, then sort it out.
When AI grabbed

Alison - ethics of AI. Realized it is an entity.

Bob: Collosus. Movie.

Andrew/Canada: Concerned about potential shortage of energy.
You've been talking about food by building more plates, water with more pipes.
Are you saying real problem is distributing it?

Bob: Didn't say plates and pipes. New ways of doing things. Technological innovation.
CO2 glide path. Cost of energy - can't raise it: devastating.
Current recession was caused by $4 gas. Economic tailspin, then mortgage thing fell about - energy-induced.
Argument - hurt economy, or allow economy to get along decarbonization path.
Solar cells are really close to being economic. Cheap and decarbonized.

David Roberts/MIT: What organizations will resist?

Will be very strong. Much, much bigger thing than telecommunications.
Utilities.
PUCs
Federal structure
Favor distributed generation behind the meter.
Christensenize them - place where there is no jurisdiction.
http://timothyblee.com/2009/08/25/bottom-up-thinker-clayton-m-christensen/
Sold Internet not to CEOs, but to workgroups. 

Waiting for them to die. I mean retire.

Susan: 

Good:
Great event at Women @ the Frontier.

Bad:
1/ Please clean up. 
2/ Quiet hours at 10:00 pm. including BBQ area. People from other labs here. People had to be relocated.

Jose: Team projects now.
2:41

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"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul11-AD
"Missed 1st 30 minutes - doh!

Aging
Children are very expensive, birth rates dropping globally
Anti-aging -> reverse menopause, prediction women have children even later

We have a moral obligation to fix it.

Q: Medical funding / health research.
What % of funding going into aging.

Relates to last point I just made.
You guys are elites.
Pitifully small amount of money is going into intervention in aging. (way less than 1%)
Number one reason that is true - bigger problem.

Bigger problem: preventive medicine is hard sell, experimental medicine is dangerous, hard to get people to look after themselves, rather wait until they are sick
Good idea - BUT medicine is dangerous. Interventional medicine is particularly dangerous.

Aging is particularly bad because it is so slow.
Wait 20-30 years until sick - of do something during those 30 years to make things better.
Somehow, people put this out of their minds. It is a psychological question.

Something we absolutely have to get a handle on to get public support.

Aging has this aura of invicibility. YET people
Aging has aura of invincibility, people terribly interested in it, journalists / media very interested in gerontology

I am on television all the time. 100x more media attention than other scientists.
Once we have evidence, we can have very conservative scientists going on TV and all hell will break loose. Inhibition to embrace restorative medicine will break.

Q: How much?

Way less than 1%.
Call it Preventitive Geriatrics.

Q: When you actually do the math, more likely you will die before having kids if you postpone having kids? Reason we die - replace genes with better ones?

Both wrong.
First, with regard to accidents.
Make assumption that cuase of death
Rate of death independant of aging ?

What he does is preventive geriatrics

Technology happens. Unrealistic to expect rate of death to stay the same.
Rate of death due to accidents will go down even faster.
Rate for accidents - down 7% in West.
World - about 2/3rds.

About a century out of date. In 18th century, natural selection needs to work really well to optimize species. Having old ones around will somehow dimiish the signal to noise ratio.
In 1950s, Peter Medower [ref] proportion having suffered age-related decline is tiny.
They die of other stuff.
Not evolutionary intent, evolutionary neglect.
Didn't want it bad enough to have selection pressure for it.
No comprehensive anti-aging machinery.
Maybe some particular scenarios where it would be good to age.
Some scenarios where it would be good to die.
Salmon - hormonal disaster. Animal just disintegrates. Selection for it.
Remains of the mother will nourish the young.
Most mamals age slowly.
Even if there were some benefit to having aging happen, you wouldn't have some mechnism for it.
We'd turn ourselves into a species with a different age structure.
By altering selective pressures 
We ARE having impact on evolution - weaker immune systems.

Really bad thing? Fewer people die of disease.
More happening, much more aggressively. Vastly faster.

Q: Is there an amount of money that would improve progress?

First question. Yes.
First phase of this mission. Phase that creates mice. No more than 10 years.
So long as we have $100 m a year.
$20 m a year might be enough.
Only mice.
Secondly, other work being done with other sources.
Stem cells.
Really just making sure all the other things catch up.
If getting reasonably close, other funds become available.
First time last month, money from fund.
Private sector funds.
Will get to a point where what we have is sufficiently interesting to attract investment.

Get everything done somewhere.
: In industry as well. Get all the low hanging fruit, so no one piece will hold things up.
NIH focused on pre-disease intervention.

AD: We can position the potential sources into 3 groups:
Government - policy makers follow opinion. Science has to get to a point where scientists can do the work and say the work can be done without risking their reputations. Can't be quixotic. 
Private - short term. Small amount of money sooner.
Foundation - philanthropy. Make own decisions. Free to think long term. That is the way we have succeeded.

Reason we haven't suceeded better is credibility.
Scientific credibility is something we have been building up and only achieved in the last year or two.
Convinced wealthy people it is a worthwhile mission.
Feasible. Not necessarily that is is going to work, but worth giving it a go.
So, again, pretty successful at that.

Bigger than that - how people in network of organizations is going to do it. That money is not going to just go down the pan.
Foundation created to do that. In a bit of a crisis a few years ago. HNW individuals tailing off.
Get prizes going.
Different from research organization.

Q: Separation of MF from SENS?

Influx of funds. 

Q: To clarify, biggest near term goal is to attact individuals ...

Have brought people to time. Research advisory board of 15 people.
Signed up, extremely agressive approach.
Critics still say laughable, but much fewer since I've been able to call their bluff so comprehensively.

I'm not going to talk about a paper coming out Wednesday. BUT

Makes policy case for ?

What really matters is the list of authors. 5 are the ultimate, most respected names in the field. Hope this will make a big difference.
Get congressmen on board.

Shary: Enzymes. I have a vision of a car getting fixed. Won't have the performance of a new car? Will there be a limit?

Answered it for me with car analogy.
If you keep car repaired every year. There are cars out there that are a lot older, not getting any less functional. I'm not talking about vintage cars. I'm talking about VW bugs.
Unusually comprehensive maintenance. Get rust off. They don't have a mortality rate.
Only reason we don't have 200 year old cars is that we didn't invent cars 200 years ago.

Should be no limit whatsoever to keeping you in a beautiful [working] state.

:

Ultimately, the differences that happen are going to happen gradually.
That means the process, the changes that occur, will happen in the context of technological change that will occur much more quickly.

Only caveat - changes in anticipation of opportunity to live longer. More money in pention funds, and so on.

: Relevance question. Every time we get ethical issues, population impact. You don't find these on our website. If anybody doesn't think medicine is going to collapse, they haven't been watching their insurance premiums.

We're saying the same thing - no one got diagnosed with cancer and said, \"it's statistical.\"

Q: Simple question: in the future do you see using these strategies in utero?

No problem with germ line therapy. Will play a role soon. Very unlikely indeed that it will have impact on aging. A lot happens in 50 years.
What you are asking, say you started today. We'd have choice of using it today or waiting 50 years.
Somatic gene therapy is harder than germ line therapy. But I don't believe it is 50 years harder.
More, if we look at the type of damage we want to fix and ways to fix. We could not fix by gene line therapy anyway.
Make mitochondrial DNA available in nucleus.
Other things you just have to fix as you go.
Cross links.
Part of transporting sugar around the body. No genetic basis for that. No way we are going to stop it.

Q: Two questions.
What if any is the mind body connection in aging?

Well. Big. People interested for a long time in centegenerians.
Personality point of view - nothing bothers them. They just cope with stress really well
That is for sure true.
Here's the good news. If we look at therapies that repair damage. No big deal. Therapies fix them up.
Example of more general thing - personalized medicine.
Must be seen in context. 
Only good reason to have it is medications don't work well if medicines don't really work well.
Don't have personalized polio vaccines - they work for everybody.

Q: Go over you game plan. 

Got to fix the brain as well. 
Normally, I tell non biologists - brain is built of same stuff as rest of body.
Some of the things in brain are the same.
Differences are subtle.
Expect to use same technique to removmove amyloid.

Trans cytosis across brain/blood barrier.
We don't make extra categories.

Q: Funding more in other place?

Things we are funding - not at level of which particular organ we are fixing.
Another question - a lot of things about mitochondrial DNA in nucleus - 
Getting molecular garbage in ?? cells.
Make choice of which ones to study 
If intracellular - proteins 
We don't do that one because we may not need to with Alzheimers.
May be able to use same enzyme as for arteriosclerosis.

Q: Make regen work?

Are technologies to speed up what we do?

Q: Anything that should be developed that insn'tn't?

Q: At Halcyon. Push to 

Halcyon example. Would be good to make a lot of money on random things and help the foundation.

Q: We'll do that.

May need a boost for people who are not high priority.
Somatic gene therapy.
Whereas we will need applications - 
Some 

Computational protein design

Enabling technology for addressing cross linking
Stiffening. 
Hypertension of the elderly.
Most people - in mainstream - have given up on breaking links once formed.
In order to actually generate enzymes, we may not be able to use
approach used to eliminate garbage inside cells.
We have to help evolution along.
Create something out of the blue in silica.
Very considerable progress.
General protein folding problem - open problem, but ways to side step it have been developed.
Most important group in that area at UCLA.
Definitely has potential.

Q: Curren physiology or enhanced, 2 hearts, 4 lungs, or treatments?

No interest in implanted watch.
Might like having wings.
Hearing implants.

What is point of having two hearts? Does it help medically? You can think of scenarios on both sides.

: Halycon - biological substrate is not a long term solution. That's beyond our foundation.

Biological substrate is not a long-term solution

H guy: We can make things beyond that. What people choose to do, can't predict.
Like trying to predict what people will use computers for.
Imagine that people in the 50s - could not have predicted social networks.
You can calculate where rockets go - or money in bank account.

AD: Must fundamental thing - if objective is not getting sick, don't just back one horse.
People in AI, don't trust me to get there in time.

H guy: Other ways AI can contribute. Just make computers more powerful. Partially intelligent. Machines that help solve what is now a totally manual exercise.

: You are a connector. What would develop synergy? Talent pool? Where are the in-roads?

More birthday parties. We'll have one more.
Enabling technologies - talk about specifics, exciting discoveries that could have a really big impact. Your goal is a tool - biology/computational make enzymes on the computer - or breakthrough along the lines of regenerative medicine.

Q: Remote research labs. What is the state of my ability to log in and run.
One thing in computer science, private sector has more ability to innovate.
Tell me what is the smallest ...

I'd love to get you to the way to do that.

: Remote labs might be one.

AD: So few biologists were interested. Published a paper. Didn't think of myself as a biologist until I talked to people. Getting people who have built up relevant expertise.

: Self autSelf autonomous research facility. You give it problem, it does research.
Lot of work into automation. Very different problem.

Synthetic biology? MIT. General idea, people bring engineering approach. Structure of DNA, how things are expressed. Lowers knowlege barrier. How things interact.

Libraries. 

AD: Bio widgets.
Marko:
AD: Great access Hassel (haskel?)

: 
If you want to understand the current state of what the problem is.
Pay back 12 months later.
Most heartened by how much information to add - needed a whole new chapter for 1 year's progress.
Obviously we have weekly blog posts on the website.
Also a much more high volume news feed thing.

Q: Particular book that brought you into this field.
Always since early childhood, believed aging was fixable. Obvious.
My wife, 20 years ago, much older than me, full prof at UC SD. 
Discovered from her that aging was not considered to be an important question.
To my horror.

David R: Do we just not have a good understanding of mechanisms?

We do have an understanding of the damage. Difference between 20 and 50 year old.
Poor understanding of mechanistic relationships that cause the damage:
metabolism
How the damage leads to ill health.

We don't need to understand all those things if we can repair the damage.

DR: Nuclear testing - all just simulations now.
Sim body?

Some are optimistic. I think it is absolute bunk. Needs serious AI.

Q: On very general note - what determines in-house vs univ?
At univ when specific people have very important domain expertise - very rare knowledge/experience.
Running a large mouse house that is kept ??? free.
Opportunity to use IP.
Main reasons.

Q: What is IP? Anything you have you would then license?

SENS has model of basic university. Early stage developers. Need patents.
Fairly typical early stage license. Focus on fastest, most expeditious as possible.
Startups.
Established won't understand the change of clinical profile necessary.
Would like to have big epiphany about DIY.
Just play ball and show this thing has legs.
Get more agressive as we put some successful companies out there.

H guy: $$ is not primary objective. If you can cure aging - that is the most significant, biggest thing ever.

SJP: Something you'd do here are SU?

Huge talent pool of life science people.
AD: Difficulty is project that is to be self contained, limited time.
SENS has components like that.
They could definitely work with you to create an SU project.
You have 5. None biotech based.
Outrageous.

SJP: They all could be.

Microobes for upcycle.
Food - genetically modified.

Space / Home / Food /Water / Recycling

No health or medicine one. 

SU meta-statement. Extremsist - even there, we have to be careful. Give excuse that the public might not like what we are doing. Consciously focused on broader types of things.
Pieces on aging possible.

Nothing in observation - not awesome projects. Floored by talent pool.
Lot of life sciences people - transformative. Personality type might be attracted to what we are doing.

3 years from now, won't have to worry about.
Singularitarian agenda to come later.

May develop tech in Food that are enabling, genetic engineering, could be used in humans.
View of Peter Teal. First applications for next gen biotech may be in agriculture.
you have a massive, massive market and less resistance.

No one thinks/worries about what is at store.

: Work in SF. Has funded those two project .... Food.

One he has thrown out. Privately what he has been talking about.

Spoke last summer.

AD: Got one for you. When you make decisions at the moment about what is promising to actually support, how much do you take into account the possibility of change in the regulatory environment.

Just starting to learn about that. Expect it to get work.

AD: Over what time frame?

5-10 years.

AD: Over longer term. 30 years. Will see step change.

All medical systems will go bankrupt.

AD: Change in public opinion. Get to point where implementing really really fast.
Seems inevitable that governments will respond.
Dismantle FDA really fast, then that's what we'll do.

Libertarian view: they'll f**k that up too.
Space program went forward, then set back.

Nothing moves quickly in politics.

If we have a generation of leaders focused for this,
prepared for this,
most long term benefit for the world,
we may be able to do something.

AD: I see my outreach work in large part an exercise in softening the world up. Weakening opposition. Takes that much less effort to start real change.

I thought that there are some techs like tissue engineering, organ replacement that might poise the FDA for a bit of transformative thinking.

AD: What we need is situations when regulatory approval comes [?] Re-calibration of the cost-benefit ratio.

What about the challenge of getting the FDA to believe in a certain amount of risk?

AD: I think the FDA and reg. orgs. worldwide appreciate that peciate that preventative medicine is legitimate. It's just the practical data, showing this work is hard.

There's already using things like the cholesterol drugs....cancer therapies..we can target illnesses and diseases right now, and get those into the pipeline, and as they get used for preventative things, it'll be a natural progression to make them preventative therapies.

Does aging have to get labeled as a disease?

AD: I don't think so. It can be treated as simply the sum of particular conditions, some of which we don't even yet label in a biological sense. The treatments we'll be developing will have side benefits. I think we can get away with not fundamentally changing the terminology of the field. Terminology defocuses people on the general concepts.

One small inroad - about tech transfer questions - I had a box of books in my car, but my wife took them out. One small inroad is anyone who hasn't read Ending Aging should get a book. I couldn't think of a more appropriate group of people to donate some books to. Anyone who wants one, come and see me.

BK: 6:00 pm tomorrow, we'll be starting dinner. Aubrey will talk at 7:30 in 583C.

AD: Spain won, did they? how boring. They were the favorites from the beginning.

CONTACT INFO
=============
SENS Foundation
human regenerative engineering
Tanya.Jones@sens.org
http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/people/Tanya-Jones/

Michael Kope, CEO michael.kope@sens.org
http://www.sens.org/users/mike-kope
+1 650 906 5631
www.sens.org
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SENS_Foundation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aubrey_de_Grey
http://www.sens.org/
End Aging book: http://bit.ly/cvFZKS

Follow at http://www.sens.org/rss.xml
SENS (Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence) \u2014 SENS approaches the diseases and disabilities of aging from an \"engineering\" point of view. Instead of seeking to decipher the code of life and interfere with metabolic processes (the gerontological approach), or waiting until it is effectively too late to treat age-related damage and treating symptoms (the conventional medical, geriatric approach), SENS targets the damage of aging itself, bringing it down to levels below the threshold at which it causes problems.

luke@foundersfund.com
http://www.foundersfund.com/
THE FOUNDERS FUND
We share something basic - the desire to build great companies from the ground up. Our partners are all entrepreneurs who have founded, operated, and scaled companies, and we want to lend our experience to the next generation of founders. If you have a groundbreaking idea, we have the capital, experience, and commitment to help you build it.

http://opensciencesummit.com/

GSP09 presentation
http://www.youtube.com/user/singularityu#p/search/0/HTMNfU7zftQ

TED talk
Aubrey de Grey: Why we age and how we can avoid it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8iYpxRXlboQ

Google Tech Talks
Prospects for extending healthy life - a lot
61 min - Jun 1, 2007
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8554766938711591377

Aging of the Other Genome: A Decisive but ...
62 min - Dec 22, 2007
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEyguiO4UW0

5:55pm

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul13-Trent
"Tuesday
7/13/2010
6pm
Jonathan Trent

http://www.ipt.arc.nasa.gov/trent.html

Water on mars and venus.
On Venus - oxygen oxidized rocks, hydrogen lost to space.

Time.
Not well understand
4.2 bn year old Earth
Convey information about age with football field.
If endzone is present and other endzone
Life 3.5 bn years. Microbial life continues to dominate planet.

Three questions
1/ How do you know?
2/ Is this true?
3/ Why should I care?

Good evidence for thrombolytes?

About 2 bn years ago, oxygen in atmosphere was terrible pollutant.
Anerobic life had to hide.
Oxygen rose, rusted iron. 
Movement of continents has been substantial.
All together until 200 m years ago.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangea

1.4 bn years ago.
All complex organisms in last 13 yards.
Jelly fish at 10 yard line
8 yd line - lizards
6 yd line dinosaurs, disappear at 1.5 yd line.

Asteroid hit.
17 k/s. Huge kinetic energy. Vaporize huge amounts of water, rock - leave it in the air for hours.
Flowering plants at 3 yd
Grass 4 inch from goal.
Mammals at 5 yd line - small rodents.

First humans 3-4 m years ago- about 4-5 inches from the old.
Modern humans only 200,000 yrs old - fraction of an inch from goal.

Reason: VERY unusual circumstances today.

- Exponential growth of people

- Graphics - human popolation at time of vikings. 
At Crusades, 1200AD India and China populated.
1400 Black plague - half of Europe died.
1500 New World.
1600 Colonial America
1850 Industrial age - population suddenly spreads

- Population changes - and CO2 changes / warming
- Temp anomaly

- Average 1850-1888
- 1978 Really warm in Antarctica
Just exited the warmest decade on record.

- What is the meaning of sustainable?
- What is the holding capacity of the planet: 4 bn.
- China / India still heavily populated.
- US has just 5% of world's population.
Japan has had negative population growth for some time.

Overall,
US 307m. One dies 12.6 seconds, born every 7 second.
In China, One born every 1 second, 1 dies every 4
India,1.2 seconds, dies every 4 seconds
We would need 5 planet earths for all of China and India to live with American lifestyle.

Continue to find huge amounts of oil. Building huge systems - $2.7 bn each. Stand in 5,000 ft of water.
New Horizon is growing, consequences.

Our civilization is based on oil.
Let's get real.
Using prehistoric energy that was put down as oil.

Amazing spike in population.
Energy need - fossil energy.
What next?
IPCC 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change
predictions www.net.org
http://www.pewtrusts.org/our_work_category.aspx?ID=110

2020 Extinctions predicted.

2050s - 9 bn people on planet.

Should be having meeting like an asteroid was about to his the planet.

Big question that seems to be paramount - Energy.
Now do it sustainably, renewably.
World using 15 TW/year.

Can only do biofuels if
1/ don't use land
2/ don't use freshwater
3/ don't use fertilizer

Needs to not compete for food. Needs to utilize existing technology.

About 1 bn that go to bed hungry at night (World Bank).

- How green are biofuels?
Corn
Sugar Cane
Switch Grass

- The problem with biodiesel ...
Wood Residue
Soybeans
Rapeseed, Canola
Algae
-183 GHG
- water low

US gasoline use: 18.8 m barrels x 42 gal / barrel

Palm Oil is 600 gal/acre-yr
Algae - botryococcus braunii
Secrete hydrocarbons.
90% of what we pump as \"oil\" today may have come from algae

- Biodiesel production

- NASA studied and knows how to make fuel out of algae.

Raceway and
Photobioreactor.

Cyanotech, HI 
For food
Red color - sells for $5,000 a kiolo

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betacarotene

- What's wrong with this picture?
WATER
Weed species
Energy required for pumping water

- Bioreactor
No evaporation. Can be computer controlled.
- [Lots of examples]

So, say we want to grow these out in the desert?
- what's wrong?
Cost
Cooling - otherwise you'd cook your algae

What about growing algae out in ocean?

20 m long line. You can see the bottom.
Lots of organisms grazing on algae

Very rare to see algae bloom.
Even at this concentration, too low.
Species composition is not good for oil.

FINALLY, the punch line.
O ffshore
M embrane
E nclosures for
G rowing
A lgae

Take treated waste water. Put into a plastic container.
If fresh water algae - if they leak out, they will die.
Containment system is built in.
Nutrient system there for biofuels.
Still have remains to make fertilizer.
Can make biochar through pyrolysis and sequester Carbon.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrolysis

Waste water treatment system
Forward osmosis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forward_osmosis

Collecting solar energy.
Ocean will provide containment.
Waves will provide mixing

Bring nutrients back on land rather than throwing away in the ocean.

Could we build such a thing?

Concept - franchise out to fishermen, when not fishing.
Use big boats to deploy systems.
Mate to manifold, rise to surface.
Forward osmosis concentrates nutrients. Growth accelerates 20-30%.

[Movie: way to use algae]

Able to do it in time to make an impact on the planet.

That's where we were last fall.
Funded by CA and NASA.
Competition for contractor.

From one design, to lots of designs.
From boats to a fixed platform system. Just pumping.

Treasure Island - pumps 300,000 gal of wastewater daily
Oil that comes from algae goes directly into refineries.

[clear plastic bag with values passed around]

[Reads 1962 Kennedy speech excerpt]
6:59
Lauren: No time for questions.
http://singularityu.org/people/nasa-liasons/lauren-fletcher/

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul14-Liddy-Karter
"Wednesday
7/14/2010
5:30pm

http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul14-Liddy-Karter

Greetings everyone,

Liddy Karter, from Karter Capital and Golden Seeds, will be leading a 45 minute discussion after TP meetings today at 5:30pm in the Marshmallow. [Liddy was a panelist member last night] She will discuss the key things she look for in a seed-stage investments. 

Since Jose has an energy discussion at the same time, we will take the larger side room next to the innovation lab, where the Water TP is held.

Jon Badal

"
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul30-Hillis
"Friday
7/30/2010
12:57pm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._Daniel_Hillis

1:19 Willlow Garage bus late.
I'm Reese. On the board.
Really lucky to have Danny Hillis - all of TED plus AI rolled into one.
Over 100 patents in his name.
RAID
Parallel processing
if you use multiprocessing today - he invented it.
Went on into Imagineering.
Full size robotic dinosaurs.
Recently one of his companies, Metaweb - freeWeb, bought by Google.

Co-founder of Long Now Foundation.
Thinking about long term trends -
Bet between Ray and Mitch Kapor. Long term.
Ray bets it will. Mitch bets it will not by 2029.

Designed, among many other things, a physical mechanical clock that 
runs for 10,000 years before it recycles.
Designing things - an actual working machine that runs for that long has
been inconceivable.

1:22 [applause]
Thank you for the great introduction.
Want to get you all in a discussion.
Get you in a different time frame.
Talk about 10,000 year clock.
Get you in a different time frame.
Want to talk about democracy - what it should be,
how it works
long term.
You all have been hit by a whirlwind of stuff
minds spinning
exhausted.
Perhaps an excuse to step out of that for a bit.
For me, that's what this project is all about.
Faster, faster companies.
computers getting things more quickly.

In 1990's I heard about new college Oxford.
Founded with common 
Bryce: 1379. I went there.

Long time ago.
The common room at New College - renovated in the 20th century.
Built around these oak beams.
By 20th century you couldn't buy a 40 foot oak beam.
Went to Oxford foresters - we have the oak trees that were planted to make
new beams for New College.

People don't think like that these days.
All this change has made the future, not real to us.
In the 60's - think about the year 2000.
Read book 1984.
The future had been shrinking one year by year for my whole life.
Given shorter and shorter perspective.
I wanted a project to let me think longer term.
When I started thinking about it, there were these things
Pyramids of Giza
Climbed to the top with Tasha
Make you feel connected to people many thousands of years ago.
How to connect to future in same concrete way?
That's how I started.

Progress report. Still very much in the middle of it.
[slides]
Design Principles for the Clock
Longevity
Maintainability
Transparency
Evolvability
Scalability

This is sitting in London Science museum. Kind of a mechnical computer with a clock.
In 2000, it rang twice.

Here is another one -a mechanism that computes the position of the planets.
Another component - pendulum synchronizes itself.
Built in the center of a mountain.
When sun is overhead at solar noon. It warms something up and synchronizes the clock.
Sun in different places in different times of the year.
That figure 8 thing [analemma] 
Look over 10,000 years - the shape of this actually changes. The north star won't be the north star - Vega will be more like the north star.

The clock has to know about this. and the slowing of the Earth's rotation.
How much this deviates.
A mechanical cam - built from this mathematical shape.
Reading off - over the course of 10,000 years - that turns 10,000 times and this finger reads off this cam.

To make the real thing, it will be much bigger.
Get an idea of the scale. Make it last - so wear doesn't matter. Make it hard to take a piece and walk away with it.
We have to build tools - special robotics.
Built into shaft - carved into the shaft is a spiral staircase. We could do that years ago with 1000s chipping away.
We are designing a special diamond saw.
Here is a picture of the saw - slicing through a rock just to show it works.
Just selecting blasting contractors.
We are doing this twice. First building a whole test inside a mountain.
Figuring out what we did wrong.
SJP: How big?
You get a feel from the size.
To last 10,000 years, it has to be big.
That is actually the mountain.
Long Now Foundation has bought this mountain. Like an island in an National Park.
About as far from a city -
About 300 miles from Reno, Salt Lake City.
Basin National Park
11,000 ft mountain.
Trees on the mountain. Bristle cone pine - about 5,000 years old
10,000 years is not really that long.
We have baskets, pots and things built 10,000 years ago.
Here is something living for 5,000.
This is a very human time scale.
We can almost read the writing of people 10,000 years ago.
We know stories that they told.
Gilgamesh - probably a 10,000 year old character.
People very much like us.
As smart as we are, they dreamed of future,
shaping the world
Intro of agric as big as what we are doing now
We have stayed essentially human.
If I were alive 10,000 years ago, would be able to relate to me.
Precursors to writing and trade.
I think we could have a conversation.
If we had a common language.
Trying to preserve communication across time.
One great gift from the past - the Rosetta Stone
We should give the future something like that.
Project to build a modern version.
We've collected parallel texts in 1500 languages.
Genesis and other creation stories including Darwin's
Word lists
Grammars
Made many copies. 
Rosetta mission going out into space
Different museums. Hopefully one will get saved. Clock will be lost and found in its
10,000 year lifetime.
Asked how large?
Describe experience of going to the clock.
1:39
Machu Picchu
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Machu_Picchu
Get up early in the morning.
Hike out to the desert
See in front of you a giant cliff
As you get closer, it becomes intimidating
Implausible to climb up it
Opening in the cliff.
Go inside that - becomes more refined.
Clear it is a man-made, created opening
Come to a door.
You open the door.
A chamber - kind of an airlock
Other door closes behind you.
Shaft going down
Brad: I saw the Indiana Jones movie.
The same reason - you do remember things if there is a sequence.
A story.
Any experience that has an effect on you has a build up.
Not coincidence.
Not just a film, but look at social ritual like a wedding
They have sequences that build up.
In this case, shaft that goes up 300 feet. Staircase in rock.
You go by components.
Huge weight that clearly drives machinery.
Place you can wind the weight
Machinery isn't moving.
Start to hear, every 10 seconds, a tick.
Of the pendulum.
In tunnel, in maze. Seem to be going away from the tick.
Maybe in the wrong place.
Maybe imagining the tick.
Chamber the size of this room.
Big dial
The pendulum.
Time shows when last person visited.
Won't show you what time it is until you wind it.
Goes forward to the current time.
Close to noon now.
Sure enough, a shaft going another 300 feet up.
Dot of light.
At solar noon, sun shines down that shaft
Triggers sync mechanism and chime mechanism.
Starts playing -
Do we have sound?
[recording of low gong, then more melodic]
That mechanism generates the chime of the clock.
Sequence you are hearing has never been heard before.
Unique for your visit.
That chiming is only - you are the only person that ever heard that 
sequence - unless someone came around in precisely 10,000 years.
See that things are working.
You climb up out, on top of the mountain.
You are back out in the world again.
That is the design of the clock.

: You'll know the gap from the last person there.

You will see that time. Could be 100 or 1000 years.
Clock is designed so you could leave it alone for 1000 years.
Heat keeps it ticking.
Doesn't need people but it needs people to chime and display the time.
Accepts neglect, but responds to 
Brad: Long Now store - in Fort Mason. 
Good place to eat
Vegetarian - Green
See parts of the clock.

SJP: What if obstruction?
It doesn't have to get that every day.
Good question.
We had to assume over 10,000 years. Chances are very good that we'll have many years without sun coming out.
Can go decades without sync event.
Has enough internal weight to keep going for decades.
Can go centuries without people winding it.

SJP: Brian Eno. 
I went to Brian. It was his idea to make the chime like this.
Has a CD trying to solve this problem.
Composition was determined by the mechanism that produces it.
Brian will be choosing the bells.
Engages different interesting people.
Brian worries about how it sounds.
Lawyer worries about who owns it.
Geologists look at earth movement.
Biologist look at environment.
Long Now Foundation does a seminar series. All podcast and recorded talks.
Not their normal talk, but whatever they are interested in with the context of
10,000 years.
In some ways the clock is for us.

Brad: Seminar Monday. 

MartinReese - astronomer

Brad: Read Anathem by Neal Stephenson - You'll recognize something in it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anathem

May take you 10,000

Dan: Martin Reese Coming on Monday. 

Worth getting into the novel. Good ending.

Bryce: Connection with past.
How you wanted to feel with future - do you now?
What does it feel like? Different relationship?

It does.
Every time I hear people looking at an issue.
Specific example - one thing people think about is 
nuclear waste disposal.
I've followed that.
From 10,000 year stand point - planning doesn't work.
What works is creating options for the future.
Solution to nuclear waste - good solution is Yucca Mountain -
not stay for 10,000 years, but creates options for future.
May be very valuable to mine.
May be useful to build starship.
Get unusual transuranic.
Yucca Mountain will mean something to us for a few centuries.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yucca_mountain
Deal with problem now, in responsible way, to take us through centuries.
Thing that responds OK to neglect.
Yucca responds well to neglect.

Take current issue, look from 10,000 year standpoint, it is a good way
to deal with it now.
Even though I don't believe we can design Yucca Mountain to last 10,000 years.
People are going to change.

: How does it relate with humans being jerks? Looters.

Certainly if people deliberately attack it.
Build another one in the city.
Maybe people will forget about the one buried in the mountain.
May become important in terms of its destruction.
Can see it being destroyed and rebuilt.
What it resists is casual vandalism.
Don't have to worry about a couple of teenagers.

Brad: Drop a spanner?

It is pretty resistant to those kind of things.
Parts that esthetic - pretty exposed.
Most critical parts inside a piece of quartz. Not easy to drop something in by accident.

Neil: Co-locating a library.

One of the things early in the clock.
When I went to Stewart Brand - 
The clock to me is really interesting in that it captures the steady, predictable.
Another is informational time.
Physics time is the same forward and backward.
How could we make something that was information time.
Stewart's idea instantly was a library.
Co-locate but copy in many other ways.
Rosetta stone is seed of the library there.
Collected language texts. 
Languages going extinct about one a week.
When we collected languages, found no one had a parallel corpus.
Put that on-line.
Because not biggest corpus, linguists have taken it all over now.
In Freebase now.
Let's people record language that is getting lost.
People are mailing in tapes of last person speaking this language.
Life on internet. Not physical.
Stogy old repository - but living library in the copies.
Hopefully we'll find ways of preserving that.
Being created as we speak.
Figuring out what the library should be.
People have ideas every day to influence the design.
Other things the Long Now should be doing.
Getting projects that don't have any other home, giving them a way to get started.

Brad: Future of Democracy.
2:02
I'm partially deaf and partly blind.
I read lips, but only if I walk toward you.
Problem that has been bothering me as I think about the long term future.
Looking at democratic decisions.
Closest to me is the US.
Happens elsewhere.
Democratic process is short term.
Bugs may be different from what people expected it to be.
[turns off chimes]
Sort of miss it.
Read de Tocqueville.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexis_de_Tocqueville
Big worry then - the tyranny of the majority.
49% would be imposed on by the other 51%.
Doesn't seem to be biggest problem.
If I would characterize the bug, it gets called \"Special interests\"
If small number care about issue a lot and willing to sacrifice,
you have to be responsive to people like that.
Decisions which are wrong over the long run - hurts everybody a little bit
but helps the special interest.
The special interest - 
say an airplane mfg.
May not be good to have tariff for other trading partners,
Generally hurts the world.
As a practical matter, they may vote on it.
A lot of legislation is not believed in - it is trades.
You vote for my airplane legislation and I will vote for your farm bill.
Tyranny of the minority rather than the majority.
Obviously not worth the trouble of trying to solve for next election.
Does not get looked at by politicians.
Bad laws are accumulating.
Small taxes accumulating.
You can kind of see a long term trend in the wrong direction.
I can't see democracies lasting another few centuries without some change that fixes this.

One great thing about Long Now.
Let's you look at things before they are critical.
Where the frog was being slowly boiled, we can say this is a problem that will catch up with us.
You can propose solutions that are so slow -
No effect on current incumbents.
More effect on successors.
Bigger effect later.
Here in the US, ways of ammending constitution.
Is there a long term amendment - a slowly taking effect. Fixing this problem.
Maybe not fixed at state level. Maybe needs to be international.
Not nation state level.

One idea - Constitution was written by much smaller states banding together.
Federal govt has absorbed more and more.
Shift into other hands.

Steve: Corporations in general? Financial institutions failing. CEOs getting millions?
Corporate governance changing? More power to employees? Customers/suppliers?

Raising a really good point. Posed in terms of nation states.
What are human institutions.
Four kinds now: Over lap
one is nation states and subcomponent parts.
They have monopoly on violence. Reserve to themselves the right to commit violence.
corporations - around money.
more powerful than nation states . Have an advantage not tied to geographical regions.
Archaic idea - draw line around this piece of earth. Then laws change when you walk 
across the line. Makes no sense.
Nation states
not for profits / churches
They have their own monopolies.

Andrew: Nature - runs risk, we are cave people. Great to have bigger caves.
Individual consciousness , the way people think now.
Maybe for the longer term - evolve individual human consciousness.

Clear we can't solve tomorrow's problems for tomorrow.
Institutions set up to solve different problems.
Nation states good at solving problems related to land.
Corporations set up to manage wealth.
Oldest corp are now older than nation states.
3-4,000 year old religions.

: Which?

Brad: Hudson's Bay.

Copper Mine.

Several in Japan - ceramics companies.
Tied to a clay pit, a mine, a forest.
Continuity of shareholders. 
Some family businesses.
Depend on continuity of family 
Estates
Agriculture.

: Starting from scratch on moon, mars.
What you see as broad general principles to start from scratch?
Redesign?

There is an issue of scale.
Systems that work for 100 people or 1 m that don't work for many billions of people.

Founding principle of applied minds - never more than 99 people.
Groups that are bigger have politics - guess what people's motives are.
May be easier if smaller number of people.
May have smaller number of people problem here on earth.
We live now in time of expansive growth.
I don't think anyone born now will see population double in their lifetime.
More likely it will start to shrink.
Now we have governance of growth, expansion, scarcity.
May be the problems we face are
European society after plagues - not enough people for all the stuff.
Smaller may be easier.
Starting de novo may be easier.
Interesting to read Jefferson / Adams - they were starting, you know.
Assumed there would be another revolution.
Shocked to see 100s of years later, people trying to tweak the same constitution.
Sometimes constraints can help you.

Steve: 5000 year leap. Democracy starting in US.

Sense of \"restarting\" democracy. What had gone wrong in the past.
Huge discussion at the time.
Slavery was at odds.
Even worth trying to start without fixing that problem.
Only start if they had Southern states.

Dan: Ben Franklin, said biggest mistake of his life.

To compromise on slavery. They just didn't see how to do it.
Clearly they would not have allowed slavery.

Dan: We are getting ready to do this. The space faring society.
top level people. When that group of people establish LEO as a place to live
very privileged people. Don't feel loyalty to one government.
Can't be taken down.
Not a concern of governments.
Becomes rich from sun energy or asteroids.
Will be a powerful group of people not beholden.
A brand new start.

I'm old enough to remember ARPAnet directory. Name of everyone.
At the time, here is this new world.
Make the world what we want - no one would charge for software.

Dan: These people will control access.

Highjacked from underneath us.
This 

Brad: Don't worry. So are the Space people.

Dan: Example of small group going without national links.

Really interesting. LEO not enough. Need to get Mars.

Dan: In LEO, develop relationships - call them colonies, hospitals, hotels.
Permanently in orbit.

Depends on supply train coming up.

That's what happened in the US. As long as it depended on Europe, it inherited rules of Europe.
Only when it became independent and could dump tea into the harbor.

Dan: And that will come in space.

David A: Touched lightly - global governance. 
Seeing new ways - smaller models. International governance structure.
Not yet as a government.

My image of this. I think there is a notion.
Government - very old fashioned. Doesn't matter how large you make it.
Old fashioned idea.
Do a circle around France - all spoke french, catholics.
Go to other side of world to find gee on food, Hindu
Government was the thing that said, we'll share that package,
give monopoly on violence to state.

Cross borders - trade / immigration - exceptions.
Bulk was on patch.
That's not the way world works now.
Religion from one place
Language from another place
and so on.
Every one is mix and match.
Same combinations as you may not live in the same geography as you.

Start having specific aspects of governance - like standards organizations.
Internet is great example of that.
International governance, but not government.

Bryce: story of past

Institute of Advanced Study.
Interdisciplinary group.
Classicists.
Great dining hall.
Regular dinner.
What really happens is the mathematicians sit at the math table,
physicists sit at physics table.
So I said I was not going to do that, sat at table of Aristotelian scholars.
They said the math table is over there.
I said, I want to sit here.
Started telling them about AI. I was with the lab at the time.
Aristotle didn't think that was going to be very important.
He really kind of dismissed it.
What exactly did he say?
Come by my office and I'll find the passage.
Walked into the musty halls of the classicists.
AI comment? Remind me. De Anima.
Oh yes, here it is.
Hands it to me.
In the section on slavery.
In the Politic.
Starts out by saying, 
the problem with tools is they don't understand what you are trying to accomplish
You could, in principle build a tool that knew 
a loom that knew the pattern it was weaving

As far as we know, they do not exist,

So, there will always be slavery.

Recognized it would be a fundamental shift in the human condition.
Saw it could be important, but dismissed it.

You are in the right place at the right time.

Thank you

2:34 [applause]

Good read, 5000 year leap
http://www.amazon.com/5000-Year-Leap-Original-Authorized/dp/0880801484

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul31-Team-Meeting
"Saturday
7/31/2010
4:30 pm
11 students

Juan: 
Our plan -
Finish three days early.
Pessimistic about finding a technological innovation.
We should be working at finding a social innovation.
Our final deliverable should be an innovative business model using the technologies we find.
Today we will find some, tomorrow we will find others.

With this in mind, we have identified 7 deliverables.
Define a business plan for our organization.

this business plan has 7 points, 
Opportunity
Business

Need a brochure, web page, presentation,

Plan interviews with people, collect ideas.

Prepare final presentation.

Four teams:
Business
Technology - continue to look at options. Continue to find which are best
Media - website, brochure
Country team - choose 5 countries, India, Nigeria, Kenya.
Evaluate
Identify needs, obstacles, resources

For the last team -
each does 3 task.

One team to develop this innovative business model

Gary: Pick countries which have less electricity.
Rate them.
Criteria.
Easier political ways to get through organization.
Pick easiest and most efficient.
Initial target.

Emem: Not just those without electricity.
Pick one from developed world, look for niche in that country.

Gary: Something close.

Emem: Very passionate about my country and my people.
I love money more.

Marko: Like to have some sort of modeling.
Not know a lot.
When you say electricity needs this this this and this.
At this price.
Maybe not today. Not feasible today.
May take 2 years. But technologies growing at exponential rate.
This is really important.

Juan: Business team has to
1/ analyze best practices.
Journals, Grameen
Find models which are working very well
2/ Develop, like SolarCity - whole solution - microcredit, technology
3/ Develop our revenue/organizational model
A company / for-profit organization.

Tech team
1/ Do the field work. Now we need to call the companies. How much does it cost. What is the efficiency?
Marko: What does it cost to buy 10,000?
Gary: Introduce yourself - explain how it could scale.
2/ 

Juan: At the end, suppose we identify the \"killer\" technology.
Most likely we are going to introduce a catalog of technologies.

Marko: I would like you to analyze a plant.
MW vs smaller, 50,000 people. 
Operating cost.
Investment.
Can you do this?

Emem: Catalog of services.

Juan: Choose to pick up which are best.

Gary: Bit more sun. Warm water. More power.

Juan: Cost lists. We need to know for sure for each technology.

Emem: The service.

Marko: Here, won't get 200 people to buy. convince a family.
Is it easier to convince community in Africa?

Emem: They don't have electricity at all.
In Europe, clean energy. Choices, motivations are different.

Fabio: Might find places without any money at all.
Good approach - some sort of trade. I give you what you need, but you need to give me something back.
$100 for someone to type a book.
Put someone to work with the electricity.
Give them power - and give them work.

Alex: A new currency?
Marko: I was thinking, but I didn't find a solution.
Only thing they could do is write something on the computer.
Fabio:
Marko: You need time to educate them. Do they know how to use computers?

Juan: So, 4th team: media team
website
prototype 
video
brochure
- any media thing
Fabio: help from faculty.

Two phases - finish this Thursday. Talk to everybody to plan media deliverables.
How long does it take, how much money, who can do it.
All the information - go back to see when.
Later we start, the better.
As we advance in the weeks, have better information.

Emem: Media is our prototype.
Our prototype is the website.
Marko: Fabio, you'll be on media team?
Emem: Outsource it.
Marko: Outsource design? OK, I agree.
Fabio: IDEO.
Gary: Our budget maybe is too short.
Emem: Maybe they'll do it for free. They are our partners.
Juan: First phase finish on Thursday night - include in presentation on Friday.
Phase 2 - execution, starting 2 weeks later.
Come back.
Gary: Media team - 3 people. One from each other team.
Leaders in media on each team.

Alex: Thursday - without knowing exactly the content?
Juan: Nice brochure.
Alex: Not the content.
Fabio: I like it.
Gary: Those are the planning times - for video. Needs 2 days productions. Webpage. 1000 brochures, $500, etc.
Marko: Prototype - we will make a simulation what happens.
I know how to do this, you know how to program.
Alex: Not programming.
Juan: Initial approach.
Later we talk about the people, where they feel better.

Proposed calendar.
Monday ETIR 1.0
ceate subteams

Start. First week. Media team in 3 days, do planning.
Rest of teams do first analysis to end of day Monday.
Each team brings information they have been able to collect AND proposed solutions. What do you think? Take decisions.

Initial proposal. Business. What do you think?

After decisions, 2nd week. Write first draft of business plan of each team.
Gary: Define the bullets. 5 countries picked, why.
Business team, detail all plan, flow.
Incorporate inputs.
Over weekend, media team cannot contact.
Management meeting. 
Then this week - 2nd week - finish teamwork.
16 Aug. We create new teams. With sub teams work done:
Finance
Market
Operations
Third week spent writing business plan
Here - [end of second week]
everything is decided.
This [third week] is putting things together based on decisions.
Marko: Europe is different. But OK, go ahead.
Finance will not be so complicated.

Juan: Third week = finish business plan by 21st. Have free 22nd.
Final details. Media team - doing materials.
Emem: Present 22nd/23rd. Media team - calling us. Maybe all in the video.
John: Sounds like a great plan. [applause]
Fabio: If we could put this in the computer and put it on the wall.
Juan: Put on the calendar.
Fabio: Do ...
Alex: Put on wallpaper.
Emem: Just plot very big.
5:06
Fabrio: Would be nice to print. Put on OneNote- go to Kinkos.

5:15
Marko: We chose solar. We then have 1000 technologies.
Alex: Business plan says how to use your people, assets and technology.
Mercy: If we have some people on the grid in Nigeria, they may need storage. If they have wind, we give them solar.

5:18 [Tuned in http://fora.tv/live/open_science/open_science_summit_2010 looking for Jose's presentation]

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul27-Team-Meeting
"Tuesday
7/27/2010
2:30 pm
Energy Team Meeting

Tony Seba
Blog: http://tonyseba.com/blog/

x Alaeddine Mokri
x Alexandru Celac
x Emem Andrew
x Fabio Teixeira
x Gary Gautier

x Hind Ahmed
x John Graves
x Juan Martinez-Barea
x Marko Bitenc
x Mercy Njima
-
x San Ko

PRIOR pad:
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul22-Team-Meeting

Over next 10-20 years, will be a ton of innovation in energy.
Some will work. A lot will not.
In terms of bang for the buck, it was not there [with balloons].

2:30 pm - 4:30 pm: Tony Seba (author of \"Solar Trillions\": www.tonyseba.com)
- Energy Myths and Realities
- The Energy Industry today
- The Future of Energy (2050) and Our Energy Choices (nuclear, oil, coal, wind, geo, solar, bio energy, etc): what are the world\u2019s REAL options?
(Tony Seba: This is all based on my book \"Solar Trillions - 7 Market and Investment Opportunities in the Emerging Clean-Energy Economy\". The Tuesday talk lays out the energy industry and what our real energy choices are. I developed a simple framework to thing about the future of energy that clarifies the choices. The Friday session lays out market opportunities, challenges, technology descriptions and ideas that entrepreneurs can use to create real products and businesses. Each session should be about 90 minutes to 120 minustes depending on questions.)
4:30 pm - 5:30 pm: Team Project Time

2:35 Team member introductions

2:38 [Looks at wall with calculation]
That's wrong.
I will show you the proper number.
The spreadsheet.
That is a mistake that is 2 orders of magnitude difference from reality.

Jose: What is 2 orders of magnitude for a lawyer?
Alex: We can justifiy almost anything. [laughter]
Tony: I can show you the real number. That is off by 100.
Jose: Our Kenyan runner - finished half marathon.
Mercy: Math and CS.
Hind: Sudan. Physics. I teach.
Tony: Thanks.
Let me start with just a number.
In the US. The oil and gas industry.
They lease 192,000 square km of land.
and 178,000 square km of water.
Total 370,000 square km - to fuel 1/3 of our transportation needs.

IF the oil and gas industry were a state, it would be the 5th largest state.
Land and water to drill.
Not pipelines, offices.

Gary/Al: ????
Tony: US imports 2/3 or oil. We have 100+ million cars.
All this land we need to power some 30 million cars.
Now this does not include leaks.
The oil leak in Gulf is about 200,000 square km.
They did not lease this area, but are damaging.

With that as background, ask one thing:
If every car in America were electric 
and Americans drove 3 T miles (same as today)
How much desert land would need to be covered by solar plants?

Now, background. Compare to oil and gas. To power 1/3, needs all that land.
Just focus on land: 192,000 square km.

Emem: Just 1000 square miles.
2,500 square km.

What I want to show you is the first myth of solar:

Doesn't solar take a lot of land?
Less than 1% of what oil takes.

Al: I work on this CPV. 
Tony: Based on CSP technology.
One thing at a time.

I just wanted to open up with that presentation.
We don't all know solar as much as we should.
An opportunity first. Next week I will talk about 7 opportunities.
I want to talk about myths and realities.
Talk about big picture.

Looked to 2050. World Energy Demand. Backtrack to sources - don't confuse with technology.
What our real choices are.
People talk about nuclear, wind, ...

And, time permits, talk about Energy 2.0.

Important take away, architecture of energy is going to radically change.
Let me show you one opportunity.
Anyone been to Vanuatu?

K: I've been there.
Jose: For the solar eclipse.
T: Marshall Islands. 54,000 people. This is where you would do a Corona Beer commercial.
This sunny island went dark. Ran out of cash to pay for imported oil.
Diesel powers most of its infrastructure.
They just ran out.
Utilities were behind to 20% of the national budget.
Anyone remember July 2008?
Oil reached $147/barrel.
Almost 10x within a decade.
Imagine your mortgage payments going up 10x in a decade.
Diesel fuel went up by 10x.
Went to 60/70 cents per kWh.
Then oil went back down to $40, then back up to $80.
Oil/gas/fossil fuels - Expensive and volatile

Island Scale Solar - 
Saw huge opportunity. 100s, 1000s of islands around the world powered by diesel.
We pay 10 cents in San Francisco.

Solar today is 20 cents or less. Down to 8 or 9 cents.
Today solar is cheaper than diesel on 1000s. Sometimes by 80-90%.

Al: This is for the specific case of islands.
Tony: This hour, I intend to shock you with the truth.
Gary: What makes it possible in some places?
T: Transport of oil. Size of markets- may be a little small for a coal plant.
And solar insolation.
May not be true on an island in Alaska.
So, you have several variables.
Alex: Can we know what type of calculations?
T: Just look at what they are paying.
Alex: I meant with the surface.
T: In my blog. I published it. You are smart. Don't take anything for the truth.
Do your numbers.
Jose: We were going to have spreadsheet to compare real numbers.
Who will make spreadsheet? Alex.
Alex: Thank you.
T: No such thing as average.
If Larry Page walked in this room, the average income would be $1 b per year.
That's not the reality.
Peak power can be 10x more expensive.
Day power can be 2-4x more than night power.
Take a look, not just at avverage, but how it changes.

Jose: Ambassador from Upcycle team. Ministry of Finance in Italy.
Tony: Anyone who wants to start a company, there are opportunities here.
A no brainer. I just started one.
I'm not just talking about Fiji.
In the US where most energy is very cheap, look at Hawaii.
They pay up to 34 cents per kWh.
In Hawaii today, diesel power electricity is up to twice as expensive as solar power.
70% clean energy goal in Hawaii.
Emem: And the Obama factor.
The other opportunity that is like islands, is villages.
Just in India alone, not to say Asia, Latin America.
500 m people not connected to grid.
Have a million villages not connected
$2 / kWh for kerosene.

Grid parity?
In fact, what is grid parity if you have no grid.
Emem: It is fossil fuel.
It is 50-60-70 cents.
Most will never be connected to grid.
Opportunity is to bring solar electricity.

Have you seen this Stirling dish, 25 kW. It could power a village. Of 300 people maybe depends on how much power they consume.
Emem: Is that the capacity?
Yes.

- But, isn't solar too expensive?
- Can the poor afford solar?

Example from Bangladesh. In small towns, off-grid. 
Gramene Bank. They realized you can't have social advancement without electricity.
A lot of women spend hours per day fetching wood and water.
They carry their girls along.
They [GB] went to the poorest of the poor.
Give them a solar home system - more little houses in Bangladesh than in the US.
So, yes, the poorest of the poor can afford it, because otherwise, they pay 20x more.

In the Mojave desert, in southern california, there are 9 solar plants.
Up until recently, generated most of the solar power in the world.
1990 - 354 MW capacity.
0.7 TWh. 50% of the residential power of San Francisco.
This has been going on for 20 years.
Solar plants in the US that have been generating the equivalent of half of SF's power.

Myth
Solar = Photovoltaic Panels on the Roof

Reality
Thermal - using mirrors, not PV

This is parabolic trough.
Look at the size compared to me. These things are huge.
Most are on utility scale, not rooftop.

A single solar thermal plant will generate more power than all the PV installed.
Tells two things:
Our uptake of PV is pathetic.
CSP plants - out in desert, can produce a lot of power
9-12 cents per kWh.
PV coming down really, really, really fast, 9-20 cents per kWh
Latest PV in California - 8.5 cents.
Marko: What is included? Financing?
T: 9 cents.
Marko: Then why do some speakers say 60-90 cents?
Can we get some calculations. I would really like to understand it.
Jose: Consumer prices? Costs?
T: This is cost of production.
Marko: When you already have a plant?
T: This includes land, running plant.
Running it is less than 1%.
Al: This is not what the consumer is paying. What consumer pays has to do with the market.
Peak rate is $1 / kWh.
The price is dependant on the market,
on policy
on transmission
on time of year
on time of day.
The thing you can know about is cost.

Now, a coal plant, depending on source of coal, is 5 cents to produce.
Coal is still, by far, if you don't count all the pollution, the cheapest form of electricity production.
Thermal is 9-12 cents.
What you are asking - build in Seville, build in Mojave. Mojave has 40% more sun.
So the cost will be 40% cheaper in Mojave.
All dependent on nature - more sun, not less investment, but lower price per unit.

But wait, there is more.
The interest rate makes all the difference. How you finance is difference between 9 cents and 13 cents. Most of the cost is interest to pay back the capital.

Marko: Is there a smaller plant. Does the cost increase?
T: Of course. There is such a thing as scale.
Marko: Price for efficiency ...
T: When you take in transmission, it may not be.
Marko: 40% more sun in Mojave. Can you compare this all over the world.
T: NASA has this.
Gary: We have seen this.
Marko: Not high resolution.
T: Where in China - highest solar radiation? Tibet. Very good.
Solar, all forms of technology, are going down in price very, very fast.
Depending on the source:
Cost of energy from solar has gone down 80-90% over the last 30 years.
While, where are fossil fuels going. Look at the curve.

Marko: But probably they will go down.
K: Is this what you were talking about.
Marko: I'd like numbers to corre like numbers to correlate here.
T: Absolutely.
Running costs of solar plants are 1 cent per kWh.
As long as plant lasts.

Reality, drop by 90% in 30 years. Unbelievable. It is expected to drop by another 80-90% drop in another 10 years.
Photovolatics is only part of system.
When I talk to folks in the industry, expecting another 80-90% less.
Marko: Why is the cost dropping?Due to technology?
Ans:Learning (Knowledge), Innovation and Scale.
T: Cost of CPV dropping 20% per year for the foreseeable future.
Assuming the market keeps growing, we have innovation.
Is that great or what!?
At some point, probably in the next 10 years,
it will be cheaper than coal - depending on the solar radiation.
Middle East
Chiina
India

So, are we supposed to look at exponential curves here?

: Scarcity? Materials used to build the cells - 
T: Look, we will probably invent new materials.
I know people who are developing nano structures to totally replace
anything we are doing now.
That goes for energy storage as well.
K: Do you see people waiting - hard to be an early adopter.
T: Early adopter will invest, period. Every market is going to self - segregate.
K: Given such a huge price gap, cheaper to make switch now.
T: Some are already making the switch.
Solar has been going up 50% per year for 10 years.
Emem: Do you mean 2020?
T: Over the last 10 years, installed capacity has been growing at 50% per year.
Have not hit critical mass.
I expect, at some point between 5-7 years, that curve is going to do this [gestures up]

As an industry, the PV industry is probably the most self-critical industry I know of in terms of their recycling, creation of products which can be recycled later.
It takes 6-9 mos to recover energy used to produce the PV.
All the aluminum is recyclable.
No human activity whcih does not generate waste.

CPV is concete.

Gary: Which is material ...
T: Let me put off that question.
Cost of Electricty c/kW - Solar PV
Matrix source Wikipedia

- Solar \x3c fossil in many US markets
2010 CPV project in CA ~ 8.5 cents/ kWh
by 2015 - grid-parity in 2/3 of US

Myth:
Solar is
- New (still needs R&D) &
- Not ready for primetime!

http://www.solfocus.com/en/index.php

3:30 Jose: We should move on.
T: Thank you.
Reality
First commercial solar plant was opened in 1912. Egypt.
With British financing. Energy is global and was then.
Pumped water from Nile to cotton fields.
Fabio: 100 years later - the same.
T: That parbolic trough was invented.
Myth: 
Solar is 
- intermittent
Reality:
Andasol (Spain) has 7.5 hours of energy storage using battery.
Al: using molten salt.
T: You can store energy in a lot of ways.
They store thermal energy - not electricty.
Thermal energy is 10x cheaper than electricity storage.

People go out for dinner at midnight.
Juan: We do.
T: So they generate energy. $100 for molten salt. Versus 40x more for lithium

For those concerned - molten salt is safe.
Potassium Nitrate - used to cure meat for 100s of years.
So you could eat that stuff.

Reality is that a plant coming on line in Spain will have 15 hours.
24/7 solar plant in Spain within a year.

Let me recap:
- is cost competitive today
- uses mirrors on utility-scale -not just PV panels on

I SMELL an OPPORTUNITY.

Alex: Question. What is the best business model?
T: That is Friday's conversation.
Right now, I want to walk you.
We went through some myths.
Now I want to go into Energy industry. Why not wind, geo, nuclear.
You probably heard from other speakers.
Maybe I will convince you that solar is the answer. 
If not, don't come Friday.

Largest industry on Earth. $6.3T / year in 2007
Jose: Now? $8 T.
2007 ~14 TW.

Al: Jacobsen in his article, 12.5TW.
T: You'll see numbers 12.5T to 14TW.
Al: That's huge.
T: Difference is about 10%. I'm cool with that.
If I were to show you 100 TW.
Thing about figures, we don't really know.
When someone in Nepal tells you ... who do you trust?
Jose: Mark's numbers don't include lumber.
He was the first trying to account wind.
People were off by 2 orders of magnitude.
Saul made a 2 order of magnitude mistake.
T: Clearly he is sharp - but he made a mistake about average.
Energy demand historically trends up.
Almost 1 to 1 correlation of energy and GDP.
As more people move from poverty the energy use will go way up.
We will do energy efficiency.
Energy demad -
By 2050, 9 bn people.
If all were American-style, 102TW. Not doable in current architecture.
If all were at European rate, 45.4TW.
Still a lot.
For my book and calcualtions: 
expect to slightly more than double energy use.
Power plant life is 40 years.
In that time, we will have to replace everything.

Plus, build 16 TW.
Gives 30TW.
Revenues over 40 years - IF we keep consuming oil/ nukes and IF prices remain stable:
$382 T.
Compare with 2008 GDP.

Should I pause a little bit?

So I took $6.3 T, raised 1.7% per year and add.
Marko: What was growth 2005 to 2010?
T: It is bigger.
Reality is we have more than doubled in 40 years.
https://spreadsheets.google.com/a/singularityu.org/ccc?key=0AnBeYKoQJeyQdHo5RUhSZlNNWXd4QXNTV2Vvem9mN2c&hl=en

Solar Trillions
1. Is it Clean & Sustainable?
2. Is it Financially Viable?
3. 

Clean and Green. Not the same thing, by the way.

\"Clean\" Coal
Fact is, no one is using it.
Government is subsidizing coal.

We have 400 coal plants.
Each created 125000 tons of ash
3.7 m tons of CO2
170 pounds of mercury

100 times more radioactive than nuclear plants
You burn 2.6 tons of uranium.

Basic Problem with Bio Energy
Conversion
Solar-to-biomass 0.38%
Solar-to-ethanol 0.13% (based on sugarcane)

Physically photosynthesis can only convert at 10% efficiency.

4:13 Break.

4:14 K: IDEO. Global design firm. Dave Blakely. They are offering a first meeting with
Ted Howse - leader of IDEO's energy consultancy group.
2:30 on Thurs - go to Palo Alto first, enjoy meal there.
Introduce him to your project and start a really good dialog
Some of the projects they have worked on
Designing clean tech campaigns.
How to think about energy.
A really helpful resource available to you.
I know you have various deadlines. This creates a resource.
IDEO knows what you are doing.
Introduce other people.
IDEO did help our team project last year.

Jose: So, we have your car also.
Gary: Might be able to get another one.
Jose: Eric might give us his car.
Logistics tomorrow afternoon.
Not all of you going to Energy visits tomorrow.
In afternoon will have team meeting.

Tony: Going to Tesla visit with you guys.
- Biofuels - Financially viable?
Subsidized all through supply chain
Waste to energy is interesting.
Agriculture to energy is brain dead in my opinion.

Mercy: Algae?
Tony: Biofuels only exist due to massive subsidies. Use resources for free.
They use free water. Divert government money.
Burn up forest.

Companies grow algae to treat water but they can't scale and can't justify the investment for energy.

Tony: Not going to work. Not going to scale.
Subsidies are rising. Not being more efficient.
Whole market is political.

- \"Green\" Nuclear
Marko: Bob Metcalfe calls it blue.
Greenpeace has not stopped plants.
Reason is - nuclear is too expensive.
On average, price of a plant was $3 b.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relative_cost_of_electricity_generated_by_different_sources

Nuclear Energy Loses Cost Advantage
By DIANA S. POWERS
Published: July 26, 2010
\"John O. Blackburn, a professor of economics at Duke University, in North Carolina, and Sam Cunningham, a graduate student, wrote in the paper, \u201cSolar and Nuclear Costs \u2014 The Historic Crossover.\u201d
This crossover occurred at 16 cents per kilowatt hour, they said.\"
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/27/business/global/27iht-renuke.html?_r=2&src=busln

Wind is great - but is it scalable?
Total available is 2TW.

Geothermal - scalable?
0.15 TW

Max clean energy - ~ 5.5TW. But we need 16 TW.

Map of Solar Radiation (Insolation) Map
http://www.altestore.com/howto/Reference-Materials/Solar-Insolation-Map-World/a43/

Transmission losses.
HVDC
Only loses 3% of power every 1000 km.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HVDC

Question on
Total System Levelized Cost
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relative_cost_of_electricity_generated_by_different_sources

from
DOE Annual Energy Outlook 2010
at DOE: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/

https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B3BeYKoQJeyQN2RhMTdmODctODE2Zi00MzQ0LWE2NzUtOWNjYmU1ZTM3MTE3&hl=en

5:28 Jose:
Review agenda.
Now we need version 1.0 at 5:30 next Monday.
Plan 0.1.
We are meeting tomorrow.
Thursday we will go talk to energy expert at IDEO. Could eat at Stanford.

Administrative things tomorrow.
[applause]

Dear ENERGY team:

Congratulations on reaching your first delivery milestone! It was a great first pass, and the Faculty was quite impressed with the breadth and depth of your research and is confident that you have done a great job in analyzing the extent of the problem space in looking for the challenges and opportunities.

The following represents a comprehensive set of feedback based on the thoughts of the various faculty and team leads from the other 4 projects. The comments are a combination of our (1) Perceived strengths and weaknesses of the document and (2) General thoughts on moving forward to the next milestone for the team project. If there is anything that you don't quite understand, or have a strong response to, please follow up with us to clarify.

We include some points relevant to each section of the ETIR, as well as a general discussion of the effect of the overall document.

Going Forward

The SU community and other public entities are going to be reading this document for insight into the SU perspective on exponential technology opportunities to address humanities Grand Challenges; therefore, we need to strive for a review of the material that is specific enough to derive some actionable plans that will be needed for the final team project, and which contains the unique perspective of the Singularity University mindset with a myriad of potential opportunities for others to consider.

The 1.0 version of the ETIR needs to tie-together the exponential solutions and place them in context to the grand challenges and the problem areas introduced. 

Where we need to get to in the 1.0 ETIR:

Your developing understanding of the problem space is clear. You have been able to break it down in a way that is logical and comprehensive. By now, you should have an idea of which of the 7 areas have problems that are both actionable and which draw your interest. The next step is to examine which of the actionable problem statements that you would like to consider and exclude the rest. These will be the basis for the next level of research and brainstorming. Do your best to reduce these to 5 if you can (maybe as many as 10, but our recommendation is to reduce quickly). 

Each identified opportunity should be responsive to 1 or more detailed areas. In many cases, it can be introduced as responsive to a \"broad\" area and detailed opportunities within that can also be identified. In the 1.0 ETIR, the team should strive to communicate the \"context\" of the exponential technology opportunitybeing identified and its scalability to positively impact 10^9 people (without negatively impacting 3x10^9 others!).

We are now reaching an opportunity for constructive and focused brainstorming. Consider a question related to your actionable problem statement and work backwards. For instance, we know that we don\u2019t like petrochemical plastics in the environment, so a question could be, \u201cWhat if we could replace all petrochemical plastics with bio-plastics in 10 years?\u201d And then think about all the different strategies, technologies required, and the opportunities to make this happen.

One suggestion is to look at opportunities through opportunities of opening up \"DIY\" activities in waste handling and recycling; perhaps an NGO could be formed to address - through promoting the economic impact (both positive and negative), and business opportunities in licensing designs, technologies, etc.

In preparing the ETIR 1.0, thoroughly examine the template at: https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/general-team-project-information/etir to make sure you're covering the entire space asked for in the delivery criteria. I will work with the other TP leads and fellows to identify a set of \"success criteria\" for the ETIR 1.0 so that we can better guide you to your final product.

The \"Actionable Plan\" follows your ETIR 1.0 milestone, and will represent some of the ideas you've included as you've been developing your exponential technology solution areas.

Also, in getting ready for the 1.0 delivery, please review the General Team Project information at: https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/general-team-project-information 

Along with the ETIR 1.0 on August 3, you will also produce a draft of your \"actionable plan\" -- it's in this document that we'd like to see the details of the options you would like to pursue.

Once again, many congratulations! We are quite proud of the work you have done and have a great deal of confidence that you are on the right track to a really great and important contribution to finding a solution for a very serious global problem! Even though sometimes it seems like we are the enemy, we are very happy to be able to call each one of you our friend:-)

Futuristically yours,

Jos\u00e9 Cordeiro (www.cordeiro.org)

Director, Venezuela Node, The Millennium Project (www.millennium-project.org)
Teaching Fellow, Singularity University, NASA Ames, California, USA (www.singularityu.org)

Reviewer 1
\u00b7 Problem statements are up-front, clear, concise, and compelling. Excellent.
\u00b7 Goal Statement is concise, but needs clarification:
o 1 KW constant output? 1 KWday/day?
o House vs. household vs. persons varies in different social settings
o What does \u201cself-sustaining\u201d mean?
\u00b7 Problem space description
o Clear & concise
o Missing consideration of
\u00a7 Lack of manufacturing, transportation, and education infrastructures
\u00a7 Low education levels, lack of technical skills
\u00b7 Solutions/Exponential Technologies
o Good concise listing
o Could be organized better
o Missing Info. Tech. apps to educate & coordinate technicians.
\u00b7 Overall: Clear, concise & well organized, missing a few key elements, needs more detail.

Reviewer 2
Nice, concise executive summary problem statement
References in summary are good, for an expert referral of the description of the problem
Problem statement is very quantitative (good)
Applying the \"developing world solution\" to the \"Rural developed world\" -- does this deserve going into more detail? Why not start with the developed world first?
The \"Opportunities\" don't seem to map directly to the 5 groups of shortcomings - 
The 3 categories listed in the opportunities space don't seem to be previously introduced.

Reviewer 3
Positive
- Well structured, well defined technology opportunities.
Improvement
- To the Problem space, I would add: \u201cneed for Increased Energy Efficiency\u201d, which I think is key both in the developed and developing worlds.
- In the preliminary exponential solutions, again I do not see Energy efficiency addressed; also for the developed world in fact another potential space could be reduction in Energy usage.
- Something also about the challenge of clean energy infrastructure and transmission. The existing infrastructure is most useful at point of generation and not where energy is actually needed \u2013 something that addresses this would be beneficial again both in the developed and developing world.

Reviewer 4
The problem space is well and concisely defined, the target of communal or home energy systems able to support homes with a likely array of electric products is very good. (Does the 1 kw per household mean deliver 24 kwh per day, meet a maximum load of 1 kw? ) 
There is a good list of available technologies with references to background information. Some of these are new and possibly exponential technologies, but most are fairly commonplace today with incremental improvements coming. There is a notable absence of power electronics, no mention of some obvious storage types like super capacitors, and relatively little discussion of efficiency. 
The matrix seems arbitrary in terms of selection of rows and ranking in columns. I would like to see an explanation of how, for example, lithium batteries and stored hydro can both be depicted as low cost. 

Reviewer 5
Energy 
Positives: Generally, In agreement with other reviewers
Improvement:
1. In general, the Executive summary is well written (especially, it is concise and to the point); however, there is no in-depth analysis or justification of many of the claims and conclusions as outlined in the Executive Summary. There are not nearly enough references to support the many claims, and some claims are completely unsupported. Should stay with the Executive Summary, but an entirely new section outlining the problem in depth is needed.
2. Dirty Energy: Talks about the use of biomass then in the next sentence it talks about fossil fuels. These are not necessarily the same and have very different problems and impacts (aside from CO2 release). This definition needs to be rethought and rewritten.
3. The second to last paragraph in the Executive Summary states the preliminary intent of the TP as off-the grid home energy generation and storage. It would be useful to have a diagram that shows each component of the envisioned system. Then each component could be considered independently with the problems associated with that specific component and the various options that could be used for that component. eg., for generation, options could include wind, hydro, solar, biomass, etc. Then, in wind, problems could be \u201cin urban areas, lack of space for individual home wind power generators\u201d or \u201cnot all areas have enough wind\u201d such that you could define \u201csmall-wind, home power generation\u201d as a potential technology solution.
4. No actual identification of any specific, actionable problems that will be considered in the evaluation of solutions. For instance, if 1khw of daily storage is needed, then you should have a problem statement that says what is the extent of the storage problem and what is the action needed to resolve it (if not several within storage).

Reviewer 6
All ETIRs
* given the overlaps between each TP's problem and solution spaces,
the final reports should show that each individual TP has integrated
the relevant claims, timelines and content from the other TPs.
-----------------------------
Energy Overall:
* Good organization and presentation of problems
* Energy Matrix- good high-level summary
Energy Suggestions:
* Goal: consider splitting into Urban and Rural households: what are
their different needs? Use information from Food, Upcycle, Water on
interdependencies.
* add more data (quantification) to the Opportunities within the Problem Space
* Is there a pattern to which Opportunities have references?
* would like more information within \"Deployment Time\"of the Energy
Matrix: is a technology mature but expensive and the timeline requires
a less-expensive format? Is a technology only in the lab? Are
barriers/ bottlenecks simply technological, or will there be PLE, FEE
barriers (i.e. can a large-scale investment by a single government
drive the cost into feasibility?)?
* Who are the stakeholders? See Water.
* if there's time, annotate the quality of sources.
* don't use Wikipedia as a source

Reviewer 7
Very clear and concise problem space.
Good references and quantification of the problem.
Possible difficulty combining both developing and poor developed world all together.
No information about prototype and workable demonstration.

Reviewer 8
Could Energy also add Energy Usage to their solution space along with Generation, Distribution and Storage? I know they mentioned usage under information technology to educate... but there are opportunities for exponential ramp up in smart/intelligent homes, especially military and government buildings, (etc) huge energy consumption reductions (conservation as different from efficiency) could be achieved. This is also possible in residential, industrial, transportation, agriculture and commercial sectors. e.g. if air conditionerswere to have duty cycles, more energy could be saved, if lighting appliances have occupancy/motion sensors by design (default), etc

Reviewer 9
\"It is my impression that these ETIR's have gone well past the first stage of the four stage process and into the second and some of the third stage.
If people have done the work that goes well beyond the outline stage - that's great - but it seems to me it is not what was requested for the first stage.
Would it be useful to point this out to the teams - and encourage them to submit a document that achieves each stage when it is requested? so as not let them blend together quite so much?\"

Reviewer 10
ETIR 0.1 - initial comments
From:
Eric Dahlstrom \x3ceric@singularityu.org>
View ContactTo:gsp10students@singularityu.orgCc:gsp10staff@singularityu.org; gsp10faculty@singularityu.org; gsp10tfs@singularityu.org; tpgsp10@singularityu.org
GSP students,
Thanks for all your efforts to deliver the ETIR 0.1 documents. All the teams went beyond the basic outline that was requested. Each team developed a unique approach.
Your TP leads and TFs are collecting specific feedback for your teams from the review committee. Below are some initial comments. 
I placed pdf versions of the ETIR 0.1 documents in a folder (link below). I suggest you take a look at the approaches and ideas of the other teams.
Thanks,
Eric
______________________
Eric Dahlstrom
Team Project Director
Singularity University
NASA Research Park
Bldg. 20, S. Akron Road, MS 20-1
Moffett Field, CA 94035
+1.202.288.0622 (cell)
eric@singularityu.org

--------------------------------
ETIR 0.1 documents are in the following folder:

GSP10 Team Projects > TP General Files > ETIR 0.1 drafts
http://bit.ly/bqq1U7
Energy ETIR 0.1 2010-07-23.pdf (164 kb)
Energy ETIR 0.1 Matrix 2010-07-23.pdf (57 kb)
Food ETIR 0.1 2010-07-23.pdf (246 kb)
Space ETIR 0.1 2010-07-23.pdf (442 kb)
Upcycle ETIR 0.1 2010-07-23.pdf (1.1 MB)
Upcycle ETIR 0.1 SolutionsMatrix 2010-07-23.pdf (29 kb)
Water ETIR 0.1 2010-07-23.pdf (9.5 MB)

Note - You can also get to that folder from the \"TP General Files\" link found on this part of the TP Portal:
https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/general-team-project-information

General comments
- The ETIR 0.1 reports are all showing good progress towards team project objectives
- The ETIR structure was intentionally loosely defined - the following points highlight where we thought each approach was done particularly well. 

Energy
- strong and concise problem statement and background
- quantitative targets helped to clarify the objective
- exponential technology opportunities well connected to problem space

Food
- comprehensive coverage of problem and solution matrices with references
- time-phased roadmap for the development plan is headed in good direction
- good structure in matrix communicating general and specific problem statements

Space
- comprehensive coverage of extremely broad problem space
- good communication of a lot of information with 'heat map' matrix
- extensive references

Upcycle
- comprehensive analysis of the problem categories
- good background on each problem area
- extensive references

Water
- comprehensive survey of all aspects of Grand Challenge
- good examination of stakeholders, policies, arc of problem, etc.
- very polished formatting of report with high impact graphics
----------------

Oil Energy Independence \u2013 What is the Solar Electric Land Area?
by TONY SEBA on JULY 6, 2010

Imagine that every car in America was an Electric Vehicle (EV) powered by a electric battery like the Tesla\u2019s (Nasdaq: TSLA) Roadster. Imagine also that each and every car was powered with solar energy. Here\u2019s a question: what amount of land would you need to generate the solar energy to power every electric vehicle in America? And how would that solar acreage compare with the land surface that the oil industry uses to drill today?
I did the numbers and the answer will surprise you.
Part of the angst with the recent BP (NYSE: BP) oil spill in the Gulf is that many think we are addicted to oil and therefore can\u2019t stop drilling. U.S. Presidents since Nixon have proclaimed our addiction to oil and after announcing their plans for energy independence oil demand has gone up. I have a different view.
We\u2019re not addicted to oil. We are addicted to driving.
It is highly unlikely that as a society we\u2019ll stop driving anytime soon. The good news is that we can drive as we have been while not polluting the Gulf, import oil or use oil at all. The way to do it is to shift the way we power our cars \u2013 from gasoline to electricity \u2013 and power those cars with the sun. I have previously predicted that the last commercial Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (gasoline car) will be built around 2030.
So assuming all cars in America are battery electric vehicles and we drove exactly the same number of miles we do today, let\u2019s calculate how much electricity we would need to power all of them.
Electric Vehicle Battery Power
Americans drive around 3 trillion miles (4.8 trillion Km) per year, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation (1). How much electricity would be consumed driving all those miles?
I assume that Lithium-Ion battery can power an electric vehicle for about 4 miles (6.4 Km) per kilowatt-hour (kWh). This is slightly lower that the advertised mileage of three battery electric cars as shown on the following table.
CarBattery Size (kWh)Miles per chargeKm per chargeMiles per kWhKm per kWhBYD E6482053304.36.8Tesla Roadster532453924.67.4Nissan Leaf241001604.26.7
So 3 trillion miles divided by a mileage of 4 miles per kWh means that Americans will need 750 billion kWh annually for driving.
Now let\u2019s calculate the total land needed by solar power plants to generate this much electricity in a year.
Solar Land Needs
The total power generated for a given land area will be given by the following formula
Power Generation = Land Area * DNI * Sunlight-to-power efficiency
(see the definitions and my assumptions below):
I\u2019m using 15% efficiency and a DNI of 2,000 kWh/ m2/yr (see notes below for more).
Resolving for Land Area we get:
Land Area = Power Generation / (DNI * Sunlight-to-power efficiency)
= 750 billion kWh/year / (2,000 kWh * 0.15)
= 2,500,000,000 m2
= 2,500 Km2
= 965 square miles
So here\u2019s the number: 965 square miles (2,500 Km2). That\u2019s less than 1,000 square miles!
What this means is that a solar square with 31.1-mile sides (50 Km) could generate all the energy that would power every single car in America (assuming they were all electric vehicles.)
Ted Turner\u2019s ranch in New Mexico is about 244 square miles \u2013 so he alone could generate enough electricity to power 25% of all cars in America. A solar plant the size of King Ranch in Texas with its 1,289 square miles could generate all of America\u2019s electric vehicle power with 30% extra electricity to spare \u2013 maybe export it to Mexico?
The solar number is 1,000 square miles. Let\u2019s compare this number with what the oil and gas industry uses today to power our gasoline cars.
Oil & gas land use
According to the U.S. House of Representatives, oil and gas companies lease 74,219 square miles (47.5 million acres) of land in the United States to drill oil. They also lease a further 44 million acres (68,750 mi2) for offshore drilling (1). Adding these two numbers we get that the oil and gas industries lease 143,000 square miles from the U.S. government\u2014to meet just about a third of America\u2019s transportation needs.
So to power just about a third of our cars, oil companies need 143 times the land that solar would need to power every single car in America (assuming they were all electric vehicles.)
Needless to say, oil drilling leaks and spills damage more land and water than the above numbers reveal. The BP (NYSE: BP) Gulf Oil disaster has damaged tens of thousands of square miles beyond its drilling permits. As of June 2010 the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries Services had closed an area around 80,000 square miles of water from commercial fishing.
The BP Oil Spill alone is eighty (80) times larger than the desert land that solar CSP plants would need to power every car in the United States (assuming they were all electric). And no one has ever heard of a solar spill.
The conclusion is simple: oil is not just dirty \u2013 oil is a land and water hog. Solar is more than 100 times more land efficient than oil \u2013 without the pollution.
What does this mean to entrepreneurs?
When the most abundant source of energy on earth (solar) is also is 100 times more resource efficient than the competitor (oil) the message is clear: the transition from oil to solar to is going to happen. It\u2019s just a matter of when not if. As the car industry also transitions to electric vehicles keep in mind this solar number: just 1,000 square miles of solar plants in the desert can power all the (3 trillion) vehicle-miles driven every year in America. That\u2019s what I call \u201cSolar Trillions\u201d!
Definitions, Notes and Sources
Battery Electric Vehicle range and mileage like gasoline car mileage will depend on many factors, including the car itself (weight, quality), driving conditions (city, highway, traffic, weather), driver, and so on. Furthermore, not all Lithium-Ion batteries are made equal. The number I came up with was based on a decidedly unscientific sample of three battery electric vehicles (Tesla Roadster, BYD E6, and Nissan Leaf) from three different countries (US, China, and Japan). I used 4 miles per kWh of battery.
DNI = Direct Normal Incidence radiation. DNI depends on the location. I\u2019m assuming the solar plants are built in desert land in the U.S. Southwest, which generally have high DNI. A solar plant in Barstow, CA, may receive more than 2,700 kWh/m2/yr while Las Vegas, NV, or Tucson, AZ, receive about 2,560 kWh/m2/yr. I used 2,000 kWh/m2/yr.
Sunlight-to-power efficiency = What percent of the solar radiation (DNI) is converted to power. This number also depends on the technology used. Thin film photovoltaic might convert less than 10% while Dish Sterling CSP efficiency may be closer to 30%. Solar CSP with Combined Heat and Power (CHP) can have an efficiency of 75%-80%.
However, you need extra land for things like roads, power block, offices, and so on. I used 15% efficiency. Expect this number to go up over the next few years as new innovations, learning curve, and scale advantages kick in.
Sources:
(1) \u201cThe Truth About America\u2019s Energy: Big Oil Stockpiles Supplies and Pockets Profits,\u201d A Special Report by the Committee on Natural Resources Majority Staff,\u201d U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Natural Resources, Rep Nick J. Hall \u2013 Chairman, June 2008

To Do list
__ John - Speakers - names, vote for total
__ Gary - People with skills
__ Alex - energy cost/price

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul22-Team-Meeting
"Thursday
7/22/2010
2:45 pm
Energy Team Meeting

Yimei Wong
Slides: http://bit.ly/bCacsE
Trinasolar, Business Development
yimei.wong@trinasolar.com
+1 415 385 6872 (US)
Mobile +86 139 1866 5331 (China)
Strategic Advisor, Joint US-China Collaboration on Clean Energy
yimeiwong@juccce.com
http://www.trinasolar.com/us/index.php

Jose: We are rushed. Now we have to work.
Yimei is finishing meeting in San Jose, will be here shortly.

2:56 Yimei arrives. In San Jose, closing deals.
Next trip Davos.
World expo in Shanghai.
Let's get started.

Jose: Yimei was last week at InterSolar.
Changing name to Sleepless University.

3:02 Jose: Introductions.
Fabio: explains ETIR.

Jose: Need to build prototype.
Yimei: Greening China.
Take a little bit of a trip.
Ride on Chinese jet - 2 weeks ago did a 6G in it.
Part of background - solar developer
Trinasolar.
Was in petroleum before.
Today share somethings changing in China.
- Overloaded bicycle?
Human energy.
China has 1.3+ b people.
Lot of human energy. That has attracted a lot of energy. Lot of social force behind it.
This is taken in Shanghai.
This is how person is viewed - this person has lot of energy. Transports biowastes.
China is an economic boom. Much is still agricultural.
Only 20% in East is booming.
Idea of how China is structured.
- Hu? Obama!
China is top down.
Understanding of political views.
Then social.
Met last year in November. Chu has met prior to that.
I'm a Strat Advisor with JUCCCE.
This photo says it all.
[Hind arrives]
They [US / China] are very different countries.
China is top down.
US is very democratic. Majority kind of wins.
This is the social behavior within the countries as well.
[Ola arrives]
What I find interesting -politically, sounds like a lot of fluff.
In this presentation, I'll show you substantial.
Hu says, Yes, everybody doe it.
Obama says, Let's discuss it.
Hu says from Beijing - make Wind the top priority. All provincial mayors will make it happen.
AB 32 in CA, makes renewable energy happen. RPS. Give an opportunity for renewable power systems. http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/cc.htm
Companies gathered a lot of money, try to stop AB 32. Goes in circles. Hard to get everyone on board
to support wind and solar.
In terms of negotiating, complete different cultures.
Group of us who believe in collaboration.
You'll see how it impacts economically.
[ Mercy arrives ]
Great. I ran SF Marathon 2 years ago.
- US China Friendship
30 year friendship between US and China.
A lot has happened, and not much has happened.
Because of renewable and clean energy - collaboration became more forceful.
At same time as Obama has visited China, find a list of things to collaborate.
Certain solar projects.
Green buildings - China has huge upsurge in building.
Bulding one building per day. Dramatic.
Takes about 20 years for a building to change place. If all cement - takes 20 years.
Jose: Al in Dhubi.
In China, 10 Dhubai every year.

I was in Dubai 2 years ago. 2000 cars parked at airport.
I did see Dubailand - and the Palm and the 6 star hotels.

Jose: Beijing airport is largest in the world.

Y: I've outsourced promoting to Jose.

UN - common denominator. You can have competition ...
US has been really afraid to collaborate with China on IP issues.
It is the human energy.
Love/hate relationship between the 2 nations.
Chinese is dependent on growth of US market as well.
Group between to help both nations come together.
This guy is from NY.
Pon from Wells Fargo.
Chavez - solar related energy
Peggy from JUCCCE.
How to have renewable energy as a platform.

Jose: America in Chinese \"the beautiful country\"
In US, the \"rice country\"

So here we are talking - copatition - collaboration with c
Just closed deal for 45MW deal.
Possibly the first deal of substance.
Not well publicized. Political issues.
Chinese mfg promoting utilities growth.
So Cal Ed is a well backed power gen co.
They have one of the best
CUPC has given - for 500MW you can produce renewable instead of coal
RPS - renewable portfolio standard - 20% renewable.
A lot has to do with
- commercial drive depends on rules/regulations.
Most important driver behind technology happening.
In China, central govt is big - but waiting for US.
US is the marginal market.
European countries - Germany is leader, France, Spain, now Italy.
Chinese is waiting.

Also, Art of War [ref]
Chinese is waiting for things to be operationally. Take advantage.
US is very messy now. I'm developing solar projects and people don't know.
Devil in the details.
If everyone knows details, that's when you can make a lot of money out of Energy.

- US Utulity & NYSE Listed Solar Mfg
Work expo 
For many, first visit to China. Arranged for exports.
Deal made stock jump 5%.
Emphasize this is really copetition - someone to provide low cost module. Big utilities are very
difficult to work with.
China is becoming #1 PV producer. Solar you see in Germany, Spain is Chinese. First and second tier.
About 3-4 years ago, shortage of top tier- who do you go to?
Chinese govt - pulled - SunTech. Goldman Sachs involved.

With so much production in China, you'd think they would use it.
Pricing point is not matching. 
Not a lot of incentives in China.
Regional will follow central.

Ecocities, wind, biofuel, solar - Majors of china have to have impactful projects every 15 months.
Have to be done, why? Without it, cannot move to next city.
Moved around, like embassadors. If not, they will stay for years.

Say, \"he might be moving to another city in 4 years.\"
Politically, this is how you work.
It must be a full circle, wraparound project. How does he move to next city faster.
Compalin about hierarchical way -
But in US, some things don't get implemented.
Cash for clunkers.
Doesn't make the impact as much.

It is a big utility company buying chinese goods.
FirstSolar
Sun Power 
Trina
Y: Big prize
FirstSolar CaTel is great.

I am on SEIA - solar energy industry Association.
Sun Power is in Jawei? in Southern China.
Separate from econmic/commercial values.

Jose: Trying to arrange visit to Applied Materials. http://www.appliedmaterials.com/
The company that makes the chips - future in solar energy.
Problem is they are building largest plant in China.
Applied Materials made fortune with machines building chips.
CISCO moving to energy.

San: big cos in China? Compete?
Y: Always.
I can give you breakdown -
TrinaSolar
SunTek
Yinlee - started as 

I'm not painting colors, just black and white.
China is going to win war on greening China.
don't want to repeat everything that US has gone through.
50% of Chinese mfg is foreign owned.'

I give you some other examples to justify that.
- JUCCCE
I give another talk about China's energy misunderstood
Lot of comparison of US / China.

World is at war and china is the battlefield.

Ola: So you are saying it is the rest of the world using china to pollute.

Alex: But they are not saying it is illegal.
Y: Policies drive some of these movement.
JUCCCE started 3 years ago.
Bring big pollutors.
US still number 1 user of energy.

Jose: China overtook US.
Y: Not true.
Per captia.
Jose: US 4x worse.

For Chinese - \"China-US\"
Y: for translations - by sound, by content
Means the thinking.
Example - Leap Frog market, consulting.
Educates you. Trying to crack china.
\"Leap Frog\" in Chinese means jumping toad.
It wanted to be called, \"Leaping Toad\"
outsource - copy right away with a beter name \"Educate while having fun\"

Bush is always Bush. Not \"W\"
People come for training. commercial technologies.
Mayoral training. Have majors compete on eco-city. 
Who is best. Cities will compete.
That's how companies started. 
Start with gov't support.
Good to teach good practices along with products at trade show.

Work with local utilties.

Utilities newer.
the way you influence. They are not about change.
Obama wants change and they believe it.
What has happened really - not much change.

In China, pollution in lake. Next day all clenand up. That's change.
We're all euqal.
You have to bring in impactful change in limited time.

- HT Blade. Picture at 360 degree
Wind became #2 in a snapshot - just overnight.
Shanghai - wind turbines everywhere.

Transition from mfg to user of wind blades.
30GW installed by end of 2010.
[ compare coal plant per week - 100GW ]

Not just China, but neighbors.
6-7 GW, going to 60GW of nuclear.
All of solar produced so far is one nuclear plant.
Still far away from wind effecting global demand.
I don't give a lot of hazy outlook on nuclear.
Lots of black snowballs thrown at nuclear - gen 3 coming out.
Unfortunately, ramping up to meet energy demand.

Entire movie - to how grown. Political plot of people -how it is viewed.
It will use renewable energy and sustainability to tattoo this in the people.
Make impactful changes.

Ola: Film in Chinese?
In the China pavillion. At the expo Come to Shanghai before November.
Juan: only 6 years old
Y: Investment has traditionally been from Chinese govt.
Coming from outside. lot of cooperation.
Shanghai district - learned about SV.
SV Bank has investments with entrepreneurs - only way that is sustainable.
Newer companies, within last year are majority invested.
Coupled with Renminbi fund.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renminbi
Companies can't get money out. Maybe through HK.
For own growth, a dollar and renminbi fund.

Help you succeed.
About 5 years ago, too early.
Solar was oversubscribed.
This thinking started investing abroad.
You went to US quite early. Why not earning a million a day?
Some people are having businesses - so rich. They say, you are owning nothing.
A lot of rich Chinese, don't know what to do with their money.
Can't see it. Don't know if it is real change or not.

Jose: The sign?
Energy and Wind. \"All energy\"
The Chinese language is really basic. Like barbarians communicating with each other.
Everything using this is Energy.
Solar would be \"sun\" energy.
Human energy would be the human energy, drawing of person.

China greentech initiative. Where is China now?
Went province by province.
Pipelines of renewable energy.
Provincial data for growth. 
Huge report. How does regional government make decisions. Outsourcing and implementing.
Gathering at end of 2009.
Data is ramping up exponentially.
Usage has dramatically gone up in last 10 years.

So much competition in China - really survival of fittest. If not low cost, you're dead.
Govt says, bid now - or not have opportunity in future.
It is all about face.
Honorary - awareness. Culturally.
All about presentation within negotiations.
Socially first, then political, driven by economics.
If you get the loop of culture, you get to make business.
Americans A to B shortest path.
Chinese walk around it. Essentially get to point B.
That's how you make your deals happen.
So inexpensive - no one wants to do it. Companies do it for face value.
Govt wants face too. They want to be player in renewable energy.
Economically, does not make sense for own people.
Ola: Not making much money?
They are not allowing people to make much money.
Alex: I think about FaceBook ...
Speaking of FaceBook - take a break.
A joke.
Hu is president.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao
Wen Jiabao is prime minister.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wen_Jiabao
Yammer - no FaceBook.
So internal system, via illegal system.
Friend wrote
Hu did it
Wen will it come back?
Black humor. Underlining it is what says everything.

Alex: How about pension system.

Good question for Hu and Wen.
Social and cultural.
Kids looked upon to support both parents.
If you don't respect family structure. 
Since 1976, spoiled brats. But 4 grandparents, 2 parents.
Flip around - aging. Not a lot of social help now.
Chinese always said, Mao will provide.
No longer in that system.
Pension - health issues. All this pollution. Affecting health.
Economic impact - I can make money here. Chinesified old folks home.
Also social impact - govt.
All pressure on that one spoiled child.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Sichuan_earthquake
I went as volunteer. You see people crying, sobbing, having lost their entire lifeline.
Generation is gone.
It is an economic impact.
Less production - less children growing up to be laborer.
Pricing on mfg goods - trend moving to Vietnam -not yet developed enough to take complexity of mfg.

Jose: 15 more minutes.

Another finding of China clean tech report.
Each nation - energy security.
Always a concern.

Put plant in the Gobi desert?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gobi_desert
In Western China.

Issue of intermittency.
Transmission issue.

Australia is biggest exporter of coal.
It is the cheapest.
Coal gas stove.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigri_(stove) ?

New buildings will have solar thermal - more cost effective.
PV need lots of incentives - too much pollution blocks PV in cities.
Solar heating becomes bread winner for domestic consumption.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BIPV

Here Comes China\u2019s $3B, \u2018Golden Sun\u2019 Projects
China\u2019s finance ministry has selected hundreds of projects totaling nearly $3 billion in costs for its subsidy plan to dramatically boost the country\u2019s solar energy production.
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/here-comes-chinas-3b-golden-sun-projects/

Jose: Chinese govt is wrong - will have much more solar explosion. Even Chinese can be wrong undershooting.

Last slide- Nike.
Bombardier Cpc Propulsion System Co, 

Works through revenue sharing.

Safe landing.
China is booming.
Renewable energy is in the forefront to save everyone in this war.

Jose: Say last name first.
Wong means King.

San: mentioned cooperation. US/China. In what sense?

On political level. Like competition. Making business happen. On energy front.
Utility using Chinese modules.

Ola: Has renewable firm in Nigeria.
Y: Conergy sells Trinasolar.
You get a bulk rate price. Most demand gets best price.
May not be beneficial for you to go to OEM.
But if geography is strategic - may work out.
Huge shortage in modules.
COO steps way, question comes up - any modules? Gotten that bad.

Alex: What advice for entrepreneurs.
Buying IMF goal - instead of US bonds.

Y: Go for goal.
In financial community, very much into forseeable gain.
China has difficulty seeing their currency outside.

Alex: Where to go to learn?
Y: Gather experts. Get bullet points.
Jose: Where?
Y: If you are here.
Ola: On the net?
Y: Sometimes useful. Go in person for 3 days.
Look at batteries.
Huge area.
Jose: invite you to become an advisor. Invite you to come back for presentation.
Nanosolar, Larry Page was an investor.
http://www.nanosolar.com/
I was arming CEO of Nanosolar. Take my resume to Larry Page - \"What do you need Google for? You're in energy now.\"

Emem: People don't have a lot of money. How can we get cheap solar.
100,000 or 200,000 homes.
Y: Excellent. Off-grid option.
With China - has provided services.
In Tanzania, Kenya - also a lot of tractors made in China.
Commodities such as solar. Trade for commodities such as resources China needs.
Qatar advisor - head there doing lots of projects in rural areas. 
Sustaining these projects once built.
Love to advise in that area.

Jose: Repeat schedule. Come for dinner, movie. Not officially released. The premier.
Y: Propaganda?
Jose: About Singularity.
Two tracks, sci fi after 2050 and other is interviews with famous scientists.
Need 0.001. Have seen it, but not really. Need to work on that really.
Then work.
Organize yourselves.
4:42 Break now. [applause]

====
7/30/2010
See also:
http://www.solarfeeds.com/the-green-leap-forward-/13660-solar-talk-my-testimony-before-the-us-china-commission?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+solarfeed+(Solar+Feeds)&utm_content=Twitter

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Aug5-Team-Meeting
"Thursday
8/5/2010
3:00 pm

Juan: Divide slides
One on exponential.

Jose: Need 5 min. Missing Fabio.

http://www.powertothepeople.org/our%20projects.html

Think we are doing very well.
Other teams having crisis - people / management.
Really happy. Not going to have any trouble.
Very calm.
Mercy sent \"last\" version. Never last.

Comment:
\"The idea seems to be to show all the ways, regardless of price that 1 Kwh per hour per household can be generated off grid and then illustrate the exponential cost/improvement trends of each technology and how that matches to segmented market needs. It is not clear if they include storage, inverters, etc. in the delivery systems, nor is it clear who the billion people they plan to serve really are and what they think achievable prices might be. On Friday They need to be exceptionally clear about what markets they see and what the current relevant technologies are.\"

__ Need to show exponential.

1,000 True Fans
http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2008/03/1000_true_fans.php

3:21 Gary: The software.
A great idea.
Can get involved in that: Marko?
Marko: It is tech and business. Doesn't matter which team. I can be like my own team.

Juan: Showing agenda. Divide.

Mercy: 3:23 - reads comment
Al: Should mention people in Africa / Nigeria. Technology depends on the market. If you don't know the community/market, you don't know the technology.

Juan: We can choose now. Part of the job is to choose the country.
Gary: Couple ideas yesterday night - full presentation from black to gray to white - light up whole world.
Jose: Ribbon. Prezi instead of Powerpoint - 
Al: looks much better
Juan: Can do it for final presentation.
Jose: Have to put logo of Singularity University

5 points
8 item agenda
Alex: I want a sentence - Alex, I need this picture. When. 9 am. Can you do this?
Al: Let's finish agenda.
3:30
Juan: #2 - explain which exponential - drop in PV cell cost
Gary: Add in subliminal way - smart machines to tell us. Imagine we have that to tell us.
Juan: #3 our goal - why 1kW - explain.
#4 - our approach. Not 1 technology, comprehensive technologies + financing.
For example, 1kW@Home
SolarCity + Grameen Shakti
http://www.gshakti.org/

Picture and one sentence (or word)
#7 Just the teams.

Emem: Follow Rose's advice. Great challenge - an image.
Impact ... exponential
Juan: A graph
Emem: Image Sequence - wood to candle to ... technology.

Jose: Charts with real numbers.
Max 3 to talk.
Juan: 1 / 2 - the best.
Emem: Not got business model. #4 our approach.
Juan: Put we have developed.
Jose: Do that, then review together. Only 20 slides.
Emem: I don't believe the 1% can make that decision. Agree before put on slide.
What is potential.
NGO funding?
Things to discuss. Must nail down.
Juan: Here we present approach.
Emem: What is our growth potential.
Gary: Don't put numbers, put ideas.
Al: Have rehearsals at 6.
Jose: Gary / Aledine / Marko present
1 - Gary
2 - John, impact of exponential technologies
3 - 

Al: regarding first point - electricity - climate change is important too

Gary: If step over developed world mistakes, through easy technologies, solve electricity. Provide time to study, get water.

Al: Energy is also climate change. I know problem is to provide electricity.
San: You can mention it.
Marko: You use pollution - not lose time with global warming.
Gary: Not focus on solving developed world
Al: Renewable justified why - mention almost 2 bn AND global warming.
Emem: 2 birds with one stone
Gary: 3 / 4 - food, water ...

3 - Juan, our goal
4 - Juan, our approach

5 - 
3:46
Juan: Regarding scalability - very important. Start in Nigeria.
Marko: Designing a tool. All sorts of information - feasibility for entrepreneurs to use tool.
Provide energy where it is profitable.
Not possilbe to have in technical point of view.

Emem: Open source software.
What our solution now - 

Juan: No. 

Emem: We can show how. Data come in there. Make sense.
Have optimal solutions. Should not be arrogant.

Juan: Must be discussed. Tomorrow - work on business model.
When they ask about scalability - one approach is to open solution. Entrepreneurs may have/ apply.

Gary: Trends are key. Combined with cost of life of people and resources.
Juan: Can sell this?
Gary: Depending on what you have and what you need, you pick.
Microcredits - 
Catalog - 
Range of solutions.
Juan: Problem is = no electricity, no access to the web.
Marko: Not smart. Only time will work is when market oriented, offering energy to those who don't have it.

Juan: Don't have to solve all doubts today.

Marko: May take 1 year and a half, not 3 weeks.
What timeframe are we talking about.

Gary: How fast established?

Marko: One who tells you such short time, can't.
Gary: Double resources?
Marko: 9 months. Take $1 m.
Emem: How to make money?
Marko: Value to internet? The users. Applications draw them in.
Emem: Let other people use this.
Having thoughts - provide a platform.
Us or anyone else can use that to solve the problem.
I agree.

Juan: Marko - scalability.
Emem:
6 done
7 done
8 Conclusion/Map - San

Alex: Want to make decisions - have control from start to end.
Emem: What to you want Mercy?
Jose: Alex for the domain name.
Alex: Choose the colors.

Mercy/Gary: Where is Fabio?
Juan: I know people - have to finish media thing.

JG: http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Media

Hind: Did you see http://www.powertothepeople.org/our%20projects.html ?

4:55 pm
JG: Completed 38 second Exponential Impact AVI movie.
Used Google http://bit.ly/c4zFxt and ScreenFlow on a Mac.

[Dinner and consulting discussion]

8:43
Kathryn:
At the faculty meeting, things went on.
So, torrow.
Population biology.
Success is not defined by number of offspring. 
Success is defined by number of offspring THEY have.
General background biology concept.
Not how many people hear your ideas - how many people can those people tell your idea to.
You have multiple goals.
If you give me and all the other people a short, succinct description of what you are doing.
I'm going to a conference. People will be there.
Explain it to me so I can explain it to other people.
I've got someone you ought to meet.

You could be succinct on something ridiculous.
\"I'm building a perpetual motion machine.\"
The rest of your presentation makes me believe you and makes me want to tell other people.
Failure mode if I can't remember what you want to do.
Have people understand.
Have people believe you.

JG: We've got to 

Juan: Did you read our development plan?
K: I can read now.
Jose: Would like Marko to make description.
Marko: Develop some sort of model. We will not select best one.
Take all the data from a location, map this and correlate with database.
Here you have maps for insolation, wind, all the natural resources.
Density of people.
Juan: GDP per capita.
Marko: Social on one side. Technology on other side.
third side, financial model we are trying to design.
A geographicinformation system - based on Google Earth.
connect into all the databases.
See where smart to invest.
Not influence 1 bn people by ourselves.
Make tool for people to use.
Link people to energy.
End - make people want to earn money through providing energy.
Predict.
Link data in real time.
Adjust.

Alex:
K: So, what you are saying is you are building a match-maker. On case-by-case basis. Particular 
charactersitics of area/region with people who would invest.
Marko: Google Earth with energy.
Alex: 3 movies.
First only actors.
Second only scenes.
Third, only voices.
We put these to make something 
Emem: coherent.
Juan: Tool, that not only we, to bring electricity - and all entrepreneurs around.
Now we can put windmills in Sudan. Making calculations with Ola vs diesel generators in Nigeria.
Cheaper with solar now. No body knows that.
Now the cost is the right place.
Alex: Watch the movie.
Marko: In 2013, India will be the right place to invest.
Juan: 1000s around the world. USe our tool when and where.
K: See what energy investment is feasible - much earlier than they would have thought.
Jose: Some better for geothermal, wind, solar.
Marko: Even go so far as to point out waste -
Energy map of the world.
K: Like the way you describe it now.
Not each of you impacting 75 m people.
When I listen to you now, it will get across to the audience.
Nowadays we have, through communicationnetworks.
Realtime data on generator in Nigeria.
Fabio: Enable local community to provide data in real time.
K: Underserved, more information they provide, faster results. More data come in.
Emem: Africa. Doing Solar inIndia - very lucrative.
Community based solar - give you back 100% of money.
Jose: This is ...
Emem: Roll out faster.
Jose: Competition in public policy.
Then we also have a hardware part. San Ko?
San: For team project, several people on business model, media.
Business model, make something to keep going.
Have to have killer content, technology. Have to have.
So I was looking for - found Stirling Engine. Could be one of the solutions.
Very easy to build. 
What we are thinking about is making big reflective dish. Concentrate on spot.
Generate electricity.
Stirling Engine seems to be very good.
Make more cheap.
Even when you , for the dish, must track the sun.
For that we don't need the tracker because we have human resources there.
Put somebody to track the sun.
Thinking of building Stirling Engine.
Don't know whether it can collect much energy or not.
Build it next week.
If successful, will make bigger one.
If you are interested, I have a presentation.

Jose: Those are two very good ideas.
Give us additional ideas.
As we called it, the simulation.
Collect solar energy for Stirling Engine.

What is linear
What is exp that apply now
Who are critics going to be
What are they arguing

What exp are kicking in that really make a difference.
Lot more information than before.
Haven't people tried before - they could be your critics if they failed.
What would they be saying.

What was the linear thinking..
What are the exponentials.
Marko: IT, connectivity - in certain city, have app, feasible. Why not have business.
Dropping of energy.
Consequence of exponential
K: Growth of cellphone industry. Can send information out.
IT projections -smart phones around the world.
Look 1 year out. Critical mass of countries. More than 2G systems.
Marko: We were thinking. What kind of measurements can you make.
K: One region where peopleare sending this data and getting it back.
Very fast incentive.
Within a year. 
Able to change over - system paid for itself in 6 months.
Here is a set of investors willing to look at this - speed to build, invest.
Much faster than ever in the past.

Marko: People need to input. Databases. Half open source in a way.
Real business model around it is not developed.
Relating to energy faster.
What is your objective opinion so far.

K: It ...
have been people ...
Are there people who maintain energy cost databases in different countries.
Emem: They have data on how much of country is covered by the grid.
How much coal. By diesel.
Silent on individual generation. Effectiveness of grid.
Nigeria - 6 MW of power. Not individual. They generate 30,000 MW.
People paying $200 per month. If you have $100 month, might be good market.

K: Make visible what are currently invisible markets.

Jose: Seeing other teams - how could we improve.

K: General question.

Marko: Survey. Good. Really bad. Objectively - on idea scale.

K: Only by gut reaction. Haven't read all the refences.
See this is sort of a sweet spot. Need quality data.
For people to invest where there is a hidden market.
Possible in 2010.

Marko: In 2005.

K: That part, I get. Ability to do data sharing. Investors invest in companies, in a potential market.
Need investor who wants to invest.
Maybe they will be playing with variables -
just enough sun. Invest solar in there.
Communities saying, we do not have sufficient electricity - how do we ask for investment in our supply.

Marko: See what suceeded. Forcast where else technology can suceed.
Offspring of offspring can really succeed.

Alex: Information - randomly.
Jose: Eric - will have random order.
K: Have to express to me- will I be able to repeat it back to Brad.
Lot of invisible markets because you have to have a lot of data.
Total power / # of people - doesn't tell you anything.
With enough data, find markets.
If not for one type of power than for another.
Take into account that as power sources change in price, it may become feasible.
Decision tool that gives really quality decision.

Emem: How do we make money from this?
K: Need to know this now? Or ask the audience tomorrow.
Better to ask, we don't have enough information. Better to ask than to guess.
Jose: Excellent question.
Some faculty might know.
K: Different technologies are changing.
Jose: David Rose said Google didn't know how to make money for the first two years.

Fabio: outsiders?
K: Faculty and SU. Bernie Phelp. Founder. Not random people from off the street.
Hope this helped.
Emem: Very fresh and open.
K: People in the audience - ask them questions first.
Alex: Now we have our questions ... something like this.
K: Proof is in how you develop this. See really big need for it.
Granular data is important. Countrywide data does not help.
Gary: Scope of project has deviated a bit. Might be one noticing this.
For me, kind of shocking. At the beginning, focus on same point. Bring electricity to everybody.
Get, given their income. We were going to be able to provide the best on to fit their needs.
Sunny area, income, technology.
If hand craft people, more do it yourself.
A lot of range of different issues, not super trending. Such as PV. One that captures 10x.
Things that can provide - say, via Stirling Engine.
Very very easy - from 0 to something watts - for someone who has nothing now.
Not optimistic we are going to bring this.
Keep bringing technologies that are one level up - 
Shift, none of you have talked about it - thing excited me most.
Software is great idea. One thing is not going to solve the problem.
Can help external investors. Way above target people - this gap may be 10. May be 20 years.
OR, impact at once - keep on erasing things on website.
Providereal energy . PV panel. Solar thermal - make second step. 
0 to something. Then real step. Up from LED.
Have a hands up.
Marko: I have to leave. I have different mindset.
You are only player. I want to connect 1000 players.
I just personally don't.
If probability that you will succeed is higher.
Emem: Before youleave. Believe the way presented, not the way we came through.
Wanted a platform -people to have access. Any would need money - need to give credit.
Then, catalog of services - get credit. For that particular service.
Possilble - progression of ideas.
As we thought more things added.

Marko: I don't know at what stage you thought this. Totally different things.
From point - let's talk later.
K: Since I was part of this discussion. Don't see them as being incompatible.
To be able to do what you are talking requires knowing road by road level to have data on who has
electricity and what type.
Emem: And what they can afford at what time.
K: This database - with map. Investors come in and look for particular characteristics.
Map would glow.
Others, not at investor level, here is tremendous unmet need.
That information is required for anything to get done.
communities talking to each other.
If we can buy 1 millino of these lights.
Different from little groups.
Having information that investors can use. Really good data on who has what.
Two uses for the same dataset.
Question for dataset - \"What will happen in the world when we have really good data on energy?\"
World Bank data.
Person cares about THIS region.
What happens when we do have this in the world.
We don't know yet ...
Gary: Much easier to get from list.
K: SO Cal Edison - 1996- 1999. I did part of that report.
Gary: Real and accurate data to model. Not based on links to internet.
$200 m inhabitants. Don't have super information.
Provide to citizens - both info and technology. Put eggs in the same place.

Emem: horse before the cart.

K: Reminds me of Google maps. When I would look up my own addresss - would be several blocks off.
Has dangerous effects. Google using data from other service. Happened when my neighbor had a heart attack.
I could send information backwards and say \"wrong\" - fix it.
Governments have what they think is data about electricity, but people report, No.
Lost generator.
Corruption.
People can alter/correct things.
Not at all possible 10-15 years ago.
9:26 [applause]
K: AS I say, have the thing people can understand.

Emem: How can we enable people to pay for energy.
To be able to do this - have catalog.
Show people what they can afford.
Where technology and resources cross.

9:30
Juan: Let's see if we agree or not.
About the business model.
Something self sustainable.
Do we agree on the concept?
Fabio: Not use region.
Jose: Location.

Alex: You cannot mix a software with a company.

Emem: Other guys already in the market.
Al: Hybrid system - combining different things.

Alex: First question is, \"Who is GISEF?\"
San: Core of GIS EF is sharing with others.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Media
"Alex, John & Mercy:
Web site
4 days
$800

Video
1 week
we can make with IMovie or better
awaiting quote if outsourced

Matt Rutherford said:
I can help advise, and we have Flip cameras. Unfortunately I can't film or edit personally, and our cameras are too complex for an untrained person to use. If you have a budget, however, I can help you hire a camera man and editor ($20/hr each).

Brochures
2 days
Kinkos Pricing Information* (Per piece)
500 Brochures $1.23
http://www.fedex.com/us/office/copyprint/brochures/tri-fold_brochures.html?lid=brochures_brochuresindex_brochures
Emem: Order 200 brochures.

Slidecast
2 days
we can make

Logo:

Name:

See also:
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Aug5-Team-Meeting

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul12-Team-Meeting
"Monday
7/12/2010
583C
Afternoon

Mark Jacobson

Idea: 
Wind measurement / tower at NASA

We've heard from Saul Griffith
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saul_Griffith
http://www.makanipower.com/vision.html

http://www.climateprotect.org/
Repower America is a bold plan to \u201crepower\u201d our country with clean energy and a revitalized national energy infrastructure.

Electric charging stations near NASA Ames
http://www.afdc.energy.gov/afdc/locator/stations/
Costco Mountain View
Electric
1000 N Rengstorff Ave
Mountain View CA 94043
Distance: 1.9 Miles
Access: Public - see hours

Sunnyvale CalTrain Station
Electric
W Evelyn Ave & S Murphy Ave
Sunnyvale CA 94086
Distance: 3 Miles
Access: Public - see hours

Fry's Electronics
Electric
1077 E Arques Ave
Sunnyvale CA 94086
Distance: 4 Miles
Access: Public - see hours

http://www.zazzle.com/no_suvs_sticker-217076461624575549

3:00 pm
Mark Jacobson
Came to GSP09
Plan for Sustainable Future in Scientific American
PDF http://bit.ly/aSpPA3

Slides: http://bit.ly/dpqFPR

- Steps in Analysis
1. Rank energy technologies
CO2 equivalent emissions
Air pollution mortality - one of 5 leading causes of death
Water consumption
Footprint on the ground and total spacing. On the ground, gaps to avoid interference (Wind/Tide)
Resource abundance
Ability to match peak demand
Hour by hour
Effects on wildlife, thermal pollution, water pollution

2. Take best. Evaluate replacing 100%.

- Elec/Vehicle Options Studied
Electricity options
Wind turbines
PV
Geothermal
Tidal
Wave
Concentrated Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Coa with CCS
Vehicle options
Battery-Electric BEV
Hydrogen Fuel Cell HFCV
H produced by hydrolosis
Corn ethanol E85
Cellulosic ethanol E85
flex fuel vehicles. There are other kinds.

Jose: Hybrid and Tesla. GHGFREE license plate.
Has solar on his roof.

Mark: 

Marco: Power plant capability growing exponentially. Better to wait 3-5 years?

Mark: Energy payback depends on insolation.
Few years ago, was $10/W to install.
Then $5/W.
Now, with subsidies $3/W.
If goal is to solve problems, do it now.
Otherwise, emitting for next 3-5 years.
I spent more money to solve the problem a few years ago.
Opportunity cost of waiting in terms of the problems we have.
Belief system - go as quickly as possible.

: Order?

Will rank.
CO2 first.
Cradle to grave.
For any fuel - CO2 equivalent. Gases or particles converted to CO2 equivalent.
g-CO2e/kWh
Average 900 g from coal plants without carbon capture.
Nat gas 400 + -> 600.

Coal with capture - low/high - 250 to 450.
10-15% of emissions would remain - about 100 g. But still upstream emissions. On order of 200 g. Still puts you in pretty high numbers.

: So transport is included in that.

Yes.
For nuclear - low number from industry. high from 2 survey studies, averaged.

For fairness, put both here.
Nuclear - this is not the primary emission.

Hydro. Dams last for 100 years. Low annual rate.

Wave/Tidal - based on studies so far.

Geothermal - binary plant - water recycled/not exposed to air.
Evaporation of CO2 from underground back to air. That's the low number. 13% are binary.
Rest you do get evaporation.

Solar PV. Numbers used to be higher. For good locations, Southwest. You can get relatively low emissions, depends on insolation.
Producing PVs is very energy intensive.

Concentrated solar - more efficient, CSP has larger range. More expensive.
: What is CSP?
Concentrated Solar Power
Mirrors.

Q: PV - silicon based.
Q: What about bio?
We'll get to that.
Under vehicles.

Wind. 
Depends on wind resource.
7 m / s on annual average. 
About 15% of Earth over land.
Modern turbine. Calc energy output.
Extrapolate CO2 emissions.

Wind and CSP have lowest.

- Time Between Planning & Operation.
Opportunity cost.
In US, coal burning.
For nuclear, time to put up a plant is 10-19 years.
Site 3.5-6 y
Construction permit 2.5-4 y
Actual construction 4-9 y
Only a few places got up in 4 years. New ones in China taking 7 years.

Hydro. Takes long time, but lasts 80 years. Or 100 years.
Coal - CCS: 6-11 y, with CCS longer
Geo: 3 - 6 y
Rest 2 - 5 y (life ~30 y)
Wave/Tidal life, 15 y 

Only one guy runs PV plant.

Run into red tape, zoning issues.

Emem: Large not small scale.

- CO2e From Current power mix
- Loss of Carbon Stored in Land
Vegetation dies. Continuous growth and death or vegetation accumulates CO2 in the ground. Net addition if this is halted by construction. Small number - \x3c 2 g

- TOTAL CO2 - 
Add together, get spread.
Wind / CSP .... / Coal

- % change in US CO2 from converting to BEV, HFCVs or E85
Max reduction is 33%.
Can get reduction, but not complete.

If we have battery powered vehicles charged by wind.
BEV are efficient. Plug to wheel is 80% on average. Rest is lost heat.
For internal combustion, 17-20%. Rest is heat.
Just by converting to BEV, efficienty improvement of 4x.
H is very clean. But requires 3x as many turbines to produce the H.
Need more energy to build those turbines.

CSP will get big reduction.

Corn and Cellulosic. E85 - 85% ethanol. Need 81% ethanol.
Convert from gas to corn ethanol, and don't consider land use change.
At best a few % reduction. 2% for vehicles x 33% of vehicles. Small number.
BUT, if you grow corn for fuel, then price change results in change in land use that results in more CO2 due to forestation. Or underforestation - agricultural field.
Could get 33% reduction - but instead get increase

- Low/High US Air pollution deaths, 2020.
15,000 deaths with gasoline. Baseline for comparison.
Corn E85 - slightly higher death rates.
Cellulosic E85, slightly higher yet.
Creates more air pollution to produce it. Lot of diesel to collect it. Won't go through pipelines.
Deaths from particulates, Ozone, etc.

Coal CCS - does not reduce Nitrogen oxides, or particulates.
You need 25% more energy to run equipment, hence more coal burned.

Marko: So you kill more people with carbon capture.

Increase in coal mining, transport, amount burned. Only thing that goes down in CO2. Still polluting with the rest.

About 400 nuclear power plants worldwide. If we look at speading. Nuclear weopons.
There is India / Pakistan - built bombs.
Iran
Venezuela
Syria
North Korea - to some extent.
Link from nuclear spread and nuclear weopons.

Would need 17,000 plants. If we went to 5% use - we'd double. More would have facilities. More would secretly build nuclear weopons facilities.
If only one bomb explodes in a major city, this is the death rate, annualized.
Something to be considered.

: Direct kinetic deaths, or fall out?

Take Mumbai. 16 m people. 30 years of output. Combination. Assuming direct hit.
One mega city.
Do you NEED nuclear power?

Other technologies don't carry that risk.
Others have zero risk. This is a non-zero risk. Ask BP. Even smallest risk is worth considering.

Marko: Radioactive.
Reason to buy nuclear power. Don't build it.

Can minimize, but not eliminate. Technologies, like fast breeder. Refine further. More difficult to use/acquire that technology. U is more weopons grade.

Marko: Like saying no virology, because it might be terrorist.

John Smart: This one scales with distribution of energy plants. Pandemics die out.

Marko: Number of people with knowledge is rising.

Smart: Virology may be solvable. Nuclear bomb is not.

Mark: We won't resolve this here. 
Look at other technologies, sufficient resource available, so why bother.
17x more emissions, ignoring this effect.
Do you want 17x more CO2? 

Smart: Sure there are not any nuclear low conversion? Thorium?

Less likely to weoponize. Other thing - address these problems today.
Inifinite number of things that could happen if things go right.
If we wait 15-20 years, Arctic will be gone. That's the timeframe.
Opportunity cost.
Still need 10-19 years for plant.
Do you want something in 2-5 years?
Don't want to hang my hat on this reason- it is just something to be aware of.

- % changes E85 minus gas from data
Ethanol.
specific study we did.
Why more than gasoline?
Tailpipe emissions:
NMOG +45%
NOX -305
Carinogens: 
Acetaldehyde + 4500%

- Ozone isopleth (ppmv)
Constant concentration lines
Move from point - like LA. Move to right, Ozone should go up.
Decreasing NOX while increasing ROG, more ozone.

Now in Atlanta. Lot of vegetation. 
Increase in ROG could give you less Ozone.

Whole US? 
- Effect in 2020 of E85 vs Gasoline on Ozone and health
Deaths per year + 120, 9% increase. +200 deaths, up from 15,000 per year.

- 
Bottom line. Ethanol is not helpful with regard to health.

- Spacing [photos of wind turbines]

off shore, no footprint, but is spacing.
To power all of US, about 100,000 5 MW.

Currently 50,000 much smaller turbines exist in US now. Might be 0.6 MW.

Can use land around them.

The 100,000 must be in 15% of US. 7 m/s corridors.
0.5% is amount of spacing.
Mark: will show map of wind resources

Nuclear - U mining. Buffer zone around nuclear plants. 10-17 km square zone.

- map - whole US vehicle fleet needs 4.7-35% of US if Cellulosic used.
- Corn - never get 9.8-17.6% used for corn.

Q: Jose: Brazil?
Fabio: Many cars in Brazil have it. 4-5 y ago. Every car is bi-fuel.
Mark: 100% alcohol.
Some 20%.
Jose: In terms of landmass. 
Higher carbon intensity.
Emem: Sugar cane?
Mark: Better than corn, but less than cellulosic. But they burn the fields.
- nuclear land area. About the size of RI.
Wind could be offshore US.

Emem: No risk like spill in gulf for wind?
Can withstand category 4. Pretty low probability.

Marko: Price per kW hour.
More expensive. On-shore wind, on order of 3-3.5 cents per kW/hour.
About same as new coal or gas plant.
Offshore, 50% higher than that. 4-8 cents per kW/hour.

In US, Wind is second largest source growing.

Geothermal - less space than wind.
Solar - this number too high. this should be 1000, not 250.

Gary: For solar.

This is just for vehicles, about 33% of all energy.
Should be about 130 x 130 miles for all energy.

- Water consumed. 
Hydro takes water - evaporation from lake behind dam.
Corn needs irrigation.
Cellulosic takes irrigation.
CSP - thermal, so you want cooling.
Can do dry air cooling. Less efficient, but no water except to clean mirrors.
- World Wind Speeds at 100 m
Anything 7 m/s or faster - yellow or red, really good.

Q: Floating turbine?

Mark: See video.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floating_wind_turbine

1700 TW overall.
Wind over land is 70-170 TW in fast locations.
Only looking at 17 TW total demand in 2030.

- 80 m high.
Netherlands has very good winds.

Solar available 
340 TW over land. 

- Matching Renewable Supply to Demand
combine wind and solar to match demand

Actual power demand in CA on June 12, 2005. Split between hydro, solar, wind and geothermal (base).

No case where there was no wind at all locations.

- Overall ranking
- Powering the World on Renewables

Global Power Demand 2010 (TW): 
Electricity: 2.2 Total: 12.5 - from EIA. Delivered as opposed to raw power.
We're more interested in what is delivered (AFTER transmission losses)
2030 (TW)
Electricity: 3.5 Total: 16.9
Global overall power demand in 2030: 11 TW

- Number of Plants needed
5 MW Wind turbines - 3.8 million (0.8% in place), taking up 50% of need
3 kW Roof PV system - 1.7 billion

Emem: Enough to have laundry running, TV on.
Million solar roof program in CA.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Solar_Initiative

The CSI initially offered cash incentives on solar PV systems of up to $2.50 per AC watt. These incentives, combined with federal tax incentives, could cover up to 50% of the total cost of a solar system. The incentive program was designed so that the incentives would reduce in steps over 9 years. There are separate steps for residential and non-residential customers in the territories of each of the State's 3 investor-owned utilities. As of September, 2009, the rebates range from $1.10 to $1.90 per AC watt.[1]

$100 T dollars for installation costs. Would recoup costs at 4-10 cents per kW hour.
All existing systems need to be replaced.
So you are just replacing things more rapidly.

Emem: Efficiency improvements in next 5-10 years.
11.5 TW today. Not sure it would occur or not.
Any more efficiency would be great.
Way to reduce demand further.
Used to spending money on energy, if cheap, they plug in more things.

New Lithium deposit discovered in Nevada.

- Summary

Slides: http://bit.ly/dpqFPR

Optimize by combining wind and solar into super grids. 
Problems with island countries near equator.
Look at local resources.
Australia -- huge hydro in Tasmania
Africa and South America - more geopolitical challenges. Cross country lines.
Are resources everywhere. 
Optimize local first, then go to larger catchment areas.
Can't just do it with one resource alone.

Gary: Tesla?
Jose: Ask outside.
Really incredible. Lot of great ideas.
Last year. Read all his papers.
4:45
See roman numeral one at http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/

5:10 reconvened
Jose: Agenda 
Additional sessions. 
Have picnic at Mark Jacobson's place
Build something
0.1 of ETIR.
Emem: Due ...
Jose: July 23.
Aug 3 final.
Yesterday night at Space team session.
Came from Boston. Incredible presentation. World Future Society.
Next year - organize the same.
Meeting in Vancouver.

Jose: Famous, brilliant futurist. Personal library. 
Prof of Future Studies.
Official Masters program at Univ of Ariz.
May create complete Masters program at SU.
5:15 John Smart
My interest is acceleration studies.
Curves - no place where you can get a degree in studying that - yet.
Masters in Singularity Studies.
How fast are these things improving.
We don't know.
Data may be out there, but no careers for people in studying this 
except in secondary sub-specialty.
Don't do this within any formal department.
Current state.
Started A S Foundation.
http://www.accelerating.org/

Just hanging out.

Use wIki
JG: We are fully wiki equipped.
John: Do you have categories?
List of technologies?
Any of which could reach criteria?
Gary: Still trying to figure out.
Jose: about 20-30 pages.
John: Brainstorm outline.
Technologies.
Another thing is companies - which can use private venture capital.
Third thing - policies. Governmental input or large consortium of resources.
Fourth - personal strengths. Team project after ETIR.

Jose: Put visibly.
John: Dimensions: 
Who wants to be builder?
Researcher
Jose: with $4K.
John: Review.
Book: World Changing - leading groups in South Bay
http://www.worldchanging.com/book/

John: Top 5
Rooftop PV.
Emem - you were attracted to 1.7 bn - There is your grand challenge right there. Something new.
Wind turbine - something new there.
Tethered turbines, just over the visible horizon. All on coastal areas - where most people live. No issue with view. MIT prof who worked on this.
http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/spotlights/giant-wind.html

Energy storage for electricity- some breakthrough
Super capacitors - bus running for 3 years in China. Recharges at the stops. Will run 3 miles on charges. Can be cycled millions of times, unlike batteries. Capacitor system for home solar - revolution
Compressed air - two really good presentations CAES
Jeffry Greenblatt / Google
study on CAES - grabs air, releases at night. Pretty sweet way to have distributed energy storage. 300 page publication.

Concentrated solar power. Dry way of cooling. Could be really - Juan knows - Andalusia 
Trip to see in CA.

Osmotic power. #5.

Figure out which ones. You guys - commercializable? Technically better?

Alex: When in doubt - take both. Peter's law.
Emem: Have to have both of them.
John: What other concerns?
Is process going to come together?

Marko: General knowledge. What are the numbers. How much to buy. Price per kW hour.
Policy in states. How in developing countries.
Be as concrete as possible. Must go from general to specific.
Jose: Good to make those questions in real time to Mark Jacobson.
Juan: Main objective in next weeks - the problem we are going to focus on.
Pick. A million technologies.
Marko: Use as something new.
Alex: We are just guessing. Pick one.
Marko: But pick based on probability.

Emem: Hind did the spreadsheet - see e-mail.

Book:
Diffusion of Innovation
http://www.amazon.com/Diffusion-Innovations-5th-Everett-Rogers/dp/0743222091

\"And it ought to be remembered that there
is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct,
or more uncertain in its success, then to take the lead in the
introduction of a new order of things. Because the innovator has for
enemies all those who have done well under the old conditions, and
lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the new. This
coolness arises partly from fear of the opponents, who have the laws
on their side, and partly from the incredulity of men, who do not
readily believe in new things until they have had a long experience of
them. Thus it happens that whenever those who are hostile have the
opportunity to attack they do it like partisans, whilst the others
defend lukewarmly, in such wise that the prince is endangered along
with them.\"
The Prince
by
Nicolo Machiavelli
http://www.fullbooks.com/The-Prince1.html 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul30-Tony-Seba
"7/30/2010
2:53 pm
Tony Seba

Solar City?
Marko: It was good.
Top 2-3 things.
Marko: 1000 start ups
Don't know which will succeed.
They are installing best, cheapest.
Probability.

Today, CISCO, Tesla

Juan: Don't like. What about profitability without subsidies.

Solar, right now, in much of US needs subsidy.

Ola: Why?

All forms are subsidized.
Nuclear is subsidized 3 times.

Marko: Coal?
that is cash.
Not counting pollution
10,000 + americans die from pollution
Everywhere in the world, energy is subsidized.
Also so powerful
$8 T, some goes to politicians.
They are way powerful

Really not a market, per se.
I could talk policy forever.

So, let me get started.
How much time do we have?

Issue: talk about 8 hours in 9 minutes.
Go very fast.
In book. 
Make slides available later.
Point today -there are a ton of opportunities out there.
Give an overview of some. 
Within each of these - others are huge.

Emem: Sorry, we are not safe. Way we are seated is not safe. If we have emergency,
you can break an ankle.

Tony: Fair concern. We are in earthquake territory.

[Eric arrives]
3:00
Some of the questions I got last Tuesday, I thought about.
They have to do with diffusion of innovation. 
Was not going to talk about.
Just present a little bit.
Different technologies, products, spread differently.
Telephone to 100%
Electricity - they follow this S curve.
A few, a few a few and then boom.
On business side of technology,
goes very fast to 80%, then slows down again.
Most technology innovations follow this S curve.
From the product side.
On the consumer side -whether businesses or people - self segrgate along adoption curve.

Here we go 0 to 100% along adoption line.
Usually the innovators here.
About 1 to 2.5% of market, are the ones who are either in deep deep pain
Or are those who take a lot of risks to adopt new technologies.
There is no market in solar/wind. There are many markets.
A Clean Tech Market.
There are a 1000.
Each is a submarket.
You need to choose your market for your product.
Solar City -

Alex: houses

House owners.
Give me profiles.
Small businesses
Tell me about the users? Are they poor? Are they rich?
Sunny or cloudy areas?
Once you have that profile togethter, now we are atlking about a customre.

When you are in the beginning of any market, esp in clean tech.
Which we are now.
Even in CA - 2/3rd o fsolar market 
only 41,000 houses wiht PV That's it.
Where do you think we are in terms of adoption.
VERY EARLY at cycle - barely scratched the surface.
This is a new category.
When we have a new category - there is little or unreliable data.
This is to tell you .
Where can I get data?
There is none.
Lot of sources, but all depends on the specific installtion.
Depends on a lot of things.
Whoever wants exact data - it is hard to get.
As an entrepreneur - make decision on leap of faith. Without data.
I'm very very comfortable with unreliable data.
I'm good at getting through to useful data.
Have to be comfortable with that knid of decision making.

3:07 Please don't video.
I should start like baseball / football game . A performance of mine. I own it.
People like I quote here - are not comfortable.
You are here to look at these technologies.
Cusp of many that will change the way we live.
People need exact reliable data don't get it.
By the time the rules of the game are known, the gameis over. There is a winner.
Does that make sense?
Good.

Let me show you acouple fo things in response.
Who was going to collect electricity data?
Too easy for you.

Alex: For Monday.

I'm kidding.
Thiis is data from last week. Someone else's presentation.
Prices in Sicily for electricity.
look at how it changes from 01:00 hours - early in morning
to evening in August. 
Difference?
4x, almost 5x.
Not unusual. Does it cost more in the day.
That is price, not cost.

Fabio: process is the same.

Don't they have to have peak power plants that are more expensive.

Part of my point is - when you hear elecctricity costs, blah blah blah - what is the cost?

It is irrelevnat what the average is. Depends on the day and hour.

Marko: To end user.

Price. 
Part of why solar more valuable than wind.
Wind usually blows at night. Elec prices are very low.
Sun peaks during the day. Flows with our human activities.
Even though the cost may be higher today,
the price is much higher than wind.

: So that is what they actually charge?
That is very unusual.

When was the last time you checked bill.

: Usually day/night.

Ola: When generous - lump $60.

Not unusual.

Marko: Is Siciliy just a nice example?

Easy to get data. Not so in every country.

Eric: Every home has smarat meters. Most efficient in world.
We got smart in reducing waste.

Gary: Offered by utility?

Eric: Offered by world leader, Enry[?]

Yet another presentation. Victorville, CA project.
CPV project - estimated cost of solar is 8.5 cents.
Marko: without subsidies
Without incentives.
The buyer of this is a non-profit.
Problem with non-profits. don't pay tax.
Usually tax deduction is incentive.
5 year payback

Marko: This is even better than other systems with 7 year payback.

DNI here is great.
Compares to Sahara desert.

Marko: Half as much DNI, twice the price?

Let me show you ....
Ola: 1MW, $1.7 m

Another point before moving on.
What is the cost of electricity?
In her presentation - showed different technologies.
Levelized cost using different technologies and radiation.
4 and 10. Level of solar radiation.
More sun you have, the cost will be lower.
Different technolgies have differetn curves.

So, when you ask what is the average cost of solar - base on that curve, you tell me.

Ola: Levelized cost? Top line is 1MB, 4.7 cents ...

Whoever wants to talk about finance, stay after.
This is not within what I want to talk about today.
Every one wants a bullet - but in solar there isn't one.
Part of the reason, why got 8.5 cents, got 4% interest rate.
If they got 8%, would have been 13 cents.
So, it all depends on how you finance this thing.

Now we can get started on what I really want to talk about.

Mercy: After this session?

I will show you spreadsheets. How changing interest rates will change costs.

10 minutes each on 7 opportunities.

#1 Largest. Maybe/maybe not. Desert Power. Large scale solar power plants in the desert.
I'm going to talk ...

Al: CSP or PV based.

Not talking about technologies - will talk power tower in this case.
When I say opportunities, I mean market opportunities - not about technologies.
Market opportunity - which technology is going to win -based on what we know today,
I think PowerTower.
Don't take what I say as endorsing a technology.
About market opportunities - anybody can win.

Al: Cah you put technology in parallel.

I can, but don't take it as an endorsement of a technology.

Mexico is about to have an unbelievably huge energy crisis.
Sad, it is not in media.
2009. Mexico produced 2.6 m barrels per day. Down 30% from 2004.
Pemex provides almost half of govt budget inMexico.
Energy is subsidized.
Oil will last 9 more years.
First crisis will be social - how pay for government.
87% of energy in Mex = power, gas, comes from oil and gas.
So, as production goes down, get blackouts, brownouts, power cuts.
Electricity price up, economy goes down.
Even less revenues, downward spiral.
Within 5-9 eyars.

But, what does Mexico have a lot of?
Emem: The sun.
Tequilla.
They have a lot of sun.
Lot of deserts.
Opportunity today.
I went to Sonora.
With one company I am working with.
Building a 50MW solar power plant.
Just like this, energy crisis about to happen in mideast, North Africa, China.
Crisis of major proportions.
In Mexico, with such beautiful sunshine, if they start building infrastructure today, huge opportunity.

One student left to go start compnay.

Al: Value in Mexico.
2200, 2400 depending on where.

These are just 2 of the major deserts.
Sonora
Chiuaua.

Gary: DNI around Mexico?
Dependson location. 2000, 2400. Really big.

I was sweating. The sun was unbelieveable.

Large scale solar is quickest way to move the needle.
Can't get faster than this.
Single solar CSP will generate more power than all PV installed across America last year.
One single.

When I lef the city. I live in SF. When Ilef tthis mornign. 50 degrees. 11 C. What now? 80-90.
Drive, get 40 more degrees.

One plant in desert. More than all PV installed.

You know, lots of prime desert areas.
To answer Al's question.
I think CSP is the way to go.
Many reasons
energy storage that is cheap. PV doesn't
Generate all hours.
Other applications - where PV cannot go. Later, when I talk about water.

90% of worl lives within 3000 km of desert.
That means the following.
90% within - if you use high voltaget transmission lines.
Lose 3% per 1000 km
Can pipe power undre Medit and lose only 10%.
Sun here is 4 to 10x higher.
Makes total sense. Generate 4 to 10x more energy.

That little square could power the whole world. Algeria.

I'm just giving you the indicaiton.
The whole world that lives within 90% 
who lives -all of Europe.
All of NA
All of China
Japan.
Major industrial centers.
Most in South America.

Have you all seen this.
Santiago?

These are PS10 and PS20.
This picture is this. [on book]
Solar power tower.
You have 100s or 1000s of heliostats.
With mirrors.
Focus light.
10 x 12 meters.
There is water going up, turns to steam. drives turbine, which generates electricity.
Different type of tech.

Video 20MW. Very windy.
Spanish.

Ola: Can be reflective? Not glass.
Reflectec.

Steam. Hold here. 1 hour of storage.

Alex: Like 2001 Space odyseey.

Why so high?
Mirrors up to 1 km away.
Al: Disadvantage is having at top
We just put mirrors at top, put machines on bottom.

Marko: Lose efficiency?

Juan: Very far away, you see sun rays, it seems to be a bridge.
You believe it is a bridge, it is the sun.

Tony: It is beautiful. People stop and like pray. It is religious.
Costs $4-6/Watt.
Projects announced, 10 GW. 
Just one co here has 2.6GW.
Remember 10 TW gap.
If just 10% - that is a 4-6 T dollar opportunity.

Going to be $2-3 per watt.

Building it.
Capital investment.
Somebody is going to build a terrawatt of desert power.
Somebody is going to make a tillion dollars.

Al: Can you go back to Spain photo. Just near the tower, small panels near tower.

These. When you go here. They have all kinds of technologies.
R&D lab. Just like Masdar.
PV,
Parabolic troughs.
All being tested.

If 10% of 10 TW that is $3 T.
We are talking about $9T.
My opinoin, this is going to be the biggest.
Where are the opportunities.
Desertec?
Basically a group of companies in Europe.
Develop all over North Africa.
Not little companies.
Not mickey mouse.
Certainly not ABB or Seimans.
They are raising half a trillion.
Plants inNorth Africa.

this is the concept 
Plants all over N Africa. some to Europe. Some for Africa, mid East.
Lot of desalinating water. Will talk later.

Heliostat field.
Who here is going to build a solar power plant.
Here is the opportunity.
Former student looks, said,
heliostat field is 50% of cost.
Why so expensive?
But this is mirrors and steel. Why?
Tracking is problem.
Turns out that the drive of these things.
10 x 12 meters. 3 x size of room.
They weigh a ton.
you need an engine that can move a truck.
Needs to move with sub 1% precision.
Truck transmission built by rolex.
These are about 1 km away.
Need to point sun to top of tower.
So he and friend realized, 50% of 50% - the tracker.
We can build a bette drive.
They built one without gears. An engine without gears.
They say,saves about 35%.
Helps companies make 35% more electricity - savings, using their drive.
Opportunity i snot just in building, but in taking part and making it pbetter.
More efficient, cheaper or both.

Way they build drives is not high tech - use air.
Don't need to be rocket scientist.
So Masdar is using something like this.
Beam down.
Has been built.

According to NREL 3.5 cents by 2020.

#2 Industrial scale solar.
Sunchips
2008 Million $
Made by FritoLay - use this.
Parabolic trough. 
Modesto is very hot.
Way desert.
Sun chips used to be made with gas, now made with sun.
Heat up water.
Not to generate electricity.
Generates steam.
Transfer fluid - heats up oil which fries the sunchips.
That is another advantage of solar thermal as opposed to PV.
Most of energy we use goes to heat or cool something.

Best way to heat something is with the sun.

In the US, industry uses 1/3 of all energy.
Within that, 10 industries use 75% of total.
Those use more energy than all of Japan put together.
In fact, take top 3-4, chem / petrol
Japan is big user.
Industry uses energy for - mostly, to heat something up.
In Europe, 2/3 used to heat. Process heat.
Nothing better than the sun.

Heating and cooling is 1/2 of all energy demand.
So 
but wait, there is more.
Most less than 250 C.
Market size, just in Europe of \"low temp\" is 300TW h per year
At Europe's elect prices, $2 T over 40 year life of plant.

So world total available market is about $6 T.

Marko: Use sun to heat water. Could do it where?

Tony: Here is what we do today.
Burn oil/ coal.
Wastes 70% of energy. 30% conversion.
Then pipe through lines. 
30% of orignial.
Use to heat seomthing up - lose 15-85% of energy.
Wasting 70-90% to just heat something up.
Why notjust heat it directly.

Like Frito Lay is doing.

: Tranmission?

Has to be right there.
If out in desert, not a problem.
Many industries will move to low energy price areas.

Alex: Stats?

All in teh book.

Marko: Better to use in industry.

Yes.
One's I showed
Food
Beverage
Textile. Another former student - doing this in Turkey. for washing/ bleaching.
Instead of electricity.

Another thing - Solar chilling.
Solar A/C/
Turns out that a chiller which gets cold air or water out, gets hot water in.

1 MW Absorption chiller.
Pump hot water, get A/C out.
Data centers - cooling is about 2/3 of energy.
Big DC is a fridge.
Power has become the main issue.
Yahoo in 2008- spent $500,000 in power. Second largest expenditure.
Think of what google is spending.

Let's look at energy demand.
1.5% of energy demand in 2006 went to data centers.
Will spend $250 b per year just to power data centers.

NZ whole GDP is $128 b.
Nigeria GDP is close to $200 bn.
Energy demand for data centers - next 40 years, will be $3.7 T.

Policy - permiting - is biggest hurdle.
Number 2 is financing.

Marko: due to environmentalists?

More concerted effort by governments to support clean energy.
In US, more local.

Juan: Cooling -see A/C with solar?

Yes.

To do it you have to be a geek.
SolarCity - first to put together everything.
Only one call to solarcity.
buy panel, inverter, etc.
No one company doing whole thing.

Ola: Sopogee?

Have done solar A/C. Need to get financing, ...

Alex: Why not in country with more cash.

I'm giving opportuniteis. One of my students is doing this.
Huge opportunity - 
market
technology

Do one project for all this.
Alex: And if it is a mobile phone.
Emem: Not answer to every problem.

#3 Clean water.
Water and energy - two most important ingredients of civilization.
And education.
You need water and energy to get food, industry, health.
Wars are fought over water and energy.
I don't separate water from energy. Very tightly linked.
In CA, 19% of energy isused to move water.
LA is a desert.
Water from 400 miles away.
Pump up mountains.

IBM \"Carbon Disclosure Project Report\"

Takes 3 m litres to raise a cow.
An olympic size pool is 2.5 m litres.

Jose: Meat is the most wasteful

1 veg
2 fish
3 chicken
5 cow
7 kobe beef

1 sq km gives 200,000 m^2/day of desalinated water.

Use solar heat to also do desalination.

Opportunites in clean water:
More efficient clean water.
Energy Recovery Inc - that you will visit. Product that recovers some energy of desalinatoin
Lowers cost to desalinate.

Smart Grid
Applications Layer
Al: Security?

http://powershop.co.nz/

Sell power to your neighbor.

Molten Salt, $100 per kW-hour
Andasol in Spain

Electricity storage has to come down about 10x before it makes sense for wind.
$1000 per kW/hr

Marko: Can you produce heat from wind?

Develop storage for $100 per kW-hour, you will make a fortune
Last gas powered car will be built in 2030 when electric storage is $100 per kW-hour.

Electric car = 5x cheaper to maintain.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_Auto

ICEV stands for Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle

Battery pack at $3600 will be end of gas powered cars. Now at Tesla, $25,000.

World has 700 m cars now. Expect 3 b by 2050.
$2.5 T with only 33% market penetration.

#5 Island Scale solar

[pack of 541 slides]

#6 Residential scale solar
Bangladesh - 70%
Grameen Shakti - solar to 75,000 installed in 2008
http://www.grameen-info.org/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grameen_family_of_organizations
Grameen Shakti won a first prize Ashden Award in 2006 for providing photovoltaic (PV) solar-home-systems through affordable loans to 65,000 households in Bangladesh. Its work has expanded rapidly and diversified. With 2,000 staff now operating from 400 local offices, a total of 150,000 solar-home-systems have been installed. 
http://www.ashdenawards.org/winners/grameen08

#7 Solar water heaters
Even GE is getting in.
only 12,000 units sold.
Why would GE get into tiny market?
- Benefits 3x more efficient that electric, 2x more efficient than gas
can last 20 years. 2x gas or electric.
No burning of fossil fuels.

CA passed law AB1470.

5:37 [lots of applause]

--- 
Asides:
Largest renewable energy company -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iberdrola_Renovables
Revenue: \u20ac1.816 billion (2009)[1]
Growth in installed power 14% year on year 09/10
Growth in Production 21.5% year on year 09/10
http://www.iberdrolarenovables.es/wcren/corporativa/iberdrola?IDPAG=ENIBERRENOVAB&codCache=12805335789899962

Compare to Exxon:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ExxonMobil
Revenue: US$310.58 billion (2009)[1]
Exxon said second-quarter production was 4.0 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 8 percent from the same period a year earlier, while its smaller rival Shell said output was up 5 percent at 3.1 million barrels.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/30/business/30oil.html

Canadian Solar Industries Association (CanSIA), The Great Lakes Wind Network (GLWN), the Ontario Sustainable Energy Association (OSEA), the Association of Power Producers of Ontario (APPrO), Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters (CME), the Canadian Renewable Energy Alliance (CanREA), Navigant Consulting, and McMillan LLP. 

Confirmed speakers include experts from developers, OEMs, suppliers, FIT program authorities, and finance professionals including:

Bob Chow, Director, Transmission Integration, Ontario Power Authority
Jon Norman, Director, Transmission & Distribution, Ministry of Energy & Infrastructure
Mark Graham, Director, Business Dev. & External Relations, Hydro One Networks
Cynthia Wong, Business Development Manager, Vestas Americas
Rob Miller, Vice President of Canadian Development, Axio Power
Marc-Antoine Renaud, Business Development Manager, Enercon
David Timm, Vice President of Strategic Affairs, International Power Canada
John Stonier, Vice President, Day4 Energy
Ben Kennedy, Business Development Leader, GE Energy
Kyle Rees, Vice President of Operations, Ozz Solar
Mike Switt, Managing Director, Project Finance, Manulife Financial
Jason Gray, Director of Canadian Operations, SunEdison
Elizabeth McDonald, President, Canadian Solar Industries Association (CanSIA)
Kristopher Stevens, Executive Director, Ontario Sustainable Energy Association (OSEA)
Geraint Breeze, Executive Director, Project Finance & Infrastructure, CIBC

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul29-Ted-Howes-IDEO
"uThursday
7/29/2010

2:32 pm
IDEO
Distributed Energy Generation
Ted Howes
Innovation design firm
started as product design firm
Really good process for innovation in organizations
health
experiences
environments

Joined about 3 years ago
Sustainability
thowes@ideo.com

[cookies]
You can't take one, just pass it.
Most opportunity - energy
and undesigned space
Not a lot of thinking about human needs.

Working with a solar company - problem is adoption.
They think - everyone wants to be off grid
or home remodel
vs science experiment on their roof.

How do you make it an enjoyable experience.
A smart meter
the gamet
Energy is such an enabling force
The way we produce now it doesn't make much sense.
Incredibly inefficient compared to what you guys are going to be designing.

Jose: People from 10 countries
Plan - NGO, policy or company - impact 1 billion people in 10 years
Bascially we are trying to identify - energy generation, storage
off grid
Africa / India
electricity

Gary: Working as a team since 2 weeks ago. Met a lot of interesting people.
Lot of data.
Not all the same

Ted: That's true.

Gary: So far we've tried to identify and detail the ones with more trend, more established.

Jose: Very interdisciplinary, very international.
Marko -biotech guy from Slovenia.
One guy from Stanford says, 12 TW global energy consuption. Another expert, 16 TW.

Ted: Interested in the human experience.
Emem: I went to your ladies. How could you make something some - power from shit.
How could you make it sexy?

Ted: Thankyou. That's interesting. Concerned you weren't able to leave. Now I understand you didn't want to leave.

Something that is mundane, make it delightful.
Designing a business. How does it fit into an ecosystem.
Gary: Goal is to reach target of 1 billion people.
Find out which are the needs and apply the technologies that benefit.
Jose: Emem always concerned with the poor people, but wants to make lots of money.
Juan/Spain: 1 kW per day for a house that can be off the grid or on the grid, where there is not availability.

Ted: OK. That's interesting. Places unreliable or off the grid.
Jose: We are open. Have to decide next week.
Ted: Figuring out the right question to ask = hardest thing.
Fundamentally we are asking the wrong question.
Hate to do that now.
Think not of electricity - heating/cooking - 50-90% is thermal.
Are we asking the right question?
The best place to address is around thermal uses.
Everson/Brazil: Love to hear more from you. How do you approach people centered designs?
Demographics? 

Ted: To back up on our process, how we design. Often times when we think about challenges.
We do design research, not market research - which is good for evaluating, not creating solutions.
You are trying to take statistical sample.
We try - in design - to get inspired. We don't talk to middle of bell curve,
we talk to extreme users.
People entirely off grid.
they exhibit behaviours that inspire us.
Those behaviors migrate into the mainstream.
This one guy who lives on solar - thinks about how much energy comes from his solar panels.
More direct example. Why important.
Ford Motor Co came to use for hybrid eletric dashboard.
Cool project.
When we looked at people - looked at one man who was in accident 15 years ago
Drove 55 mph. Fuel efficiency improved. Stopping more slowly.
Accelerating more slowly.
All behavioral.
Got up to 48 mpg
Did it driving a Ford Escort
How do we take that insight - his needs to maximize that gallon of gas.
Metaphor of coaching.
Designed concepts to coach people to drive differently.

Prius drivers.
Lean in waiting for engine to kick in.
How do we give them the right level of technology.

From there we design concepts.
To get to a nice lovely bathroom like that Emem, it takes a lot of prototyping.
Build it and try it.
We took a video game console, made concept to work like video driving game.
We could test ideas very very quickly.
All around coaching.

Draw insight from unlikely places
Synthesis
Make tangible very quickly

How does that apply here.

Funny we are having this talk here today.
World Bank / DOE / Dept of Defense.
How to distribute energy = particularly.
Absense of need-finding.
How do you assess = not from supply, but in terms of what people's needs are
Think about that as a design problem
pay as you go
entrepreneurs - bright spots that replicate
scalability
Broad tangent.

That's our process.
Juan: Electricity. Enable these people, mostly off the grid to access education / telecommunications
many other resources they do not have without electricity.

Ted: Could not agree more. Changes the world you live in.
Cool.

Ola: What this group should be looking for is both electricity and heat.
Does not make sense to use wood fuel.
To go solar, PV it doesn't make sense - put in battery, then to heat.
Look to energy service.
Lighting - during night. So they do not go to sleep at 6/7 pm.
Right after that = ventilation.
Emem: Fan.
Ola: Cooling - could be fridge, or A/C - worst of them all.
1-2 fans.
Then know what is going on - information, entertainment. TV #3.
Grade it in that order, connect with the people that have problem.
#1 light.
Don't want to hurt myself at 1 am. Use kerosene lamp - burn house down.
#2 ventilation - in Africa 4/5 people -windows need to be closed for mosquitos
Give them fans. It will be hot.
#3 fridge - 
#4 heating - people who have that are middle class - use electricity for cooking,
need to be connected to grid
#5 A/C
Looked at that way, better design.

Ted: Describing from demand side. Specific people with specific cultural needs.
How do we make that scale.

Ola: Everybody needs lighting.

Ted: Less from the standpoint of lighting, heating, etc.
If everybody needs these things, how does it come to life.
Do people want to own the energy source?

Emem: I see where you are going.
My thoughts - for instance, in my country, grid power is not reliable.
If solution depends on grid, people will laugh you off.
Cell phone idea works. Network is linked. All you see is your phone and it works.
If people don't physically see the transmission lines, they will still believe it is
the same old thing.
Ted: How does infrastructure drive decision making.
What I like about this space -
layers
Great and very very big challenge.
Thing I'm interested in - how do you make it scalable from an adoption standpoint.
What was the cell phone minutes banking system - Empaca
Mercy/ Kenya: Swahili word for money. SMS. Go to agent. Up to $500. Send to Ola. I've sent you a message.
You go to Kenya and collect it.
It acts as your bank.
If you want to pay a bill.
No credit cards, no cash.
Gary: So you send SMS. 
Ted: It is my understanding that it evolved from pre-paid minutes, became tradable as currecny.
Taking behavior people have and making it tradable.
Translating minutes to money.
What about scaling energy as a business and make it rapidly replicate.
Rather than hub and spoke.
Maybe a cell phone becomes a meter.

Everybody now has cell phones.
Not just technology, but how scalable as a business.

Chip Heath at Stanford.

Gary: What happened, how would you deal with your business model crashing against politics? My biggest concern.
Government don't really want adoption of certain technologies.
Nigeria - taxes double price of solar panel.
How do you deal?
Emem: Including generators.
Gary: Stop government?
Ted: Kind of interesting. Solar panels in Kenya.
San: [Hi John. Hi John]
Ted: Intersting to look at analogous examples.
Maybe countries where it can't exist.
That's possible.
You raise a really valid point.
I don't have an answer.
Look at countries where = inspite of govt efforts - change happened.
Ola: On that, I was part of internet wave. Nigeria - still had military.
Very very angry. You cannot get on the internet.
Was a time when we needed to have a demonstration.
Head of state was a dictator.
Somebody came and said, Look at you on the Internet.
Everybody has it.
All over the country, people are getting on the internet, with or without you.

Gary: Not creating a model - customizing model to each country.
Ted: But making those adjustments anyway.
Ola: What bothered me were barriers.
You've got to go into advocacy. Need to remove the barriers.
Can't promise it will be dones in one week or one year, but you've got to keep at it.

Emem: Bring parts in? is that an option?
Ola: If assembled in country, no tarrif.
Ted: An opportunity, not a barrier.
No silver bullet.
Not just one kind of each technology.
Wholistic solutions.
One wind solution that can work on very little wind.
lot less parts
Different kind of technology.
May be different solutions for different places.

What is deliverable?

JG: Back up from impact.

Look analogously. Cell phones.

Juan: Business plan, action plan, perhaps prototype.

Not going to be like an iPad.
Gary: Maybe not generate anything new.
One point of reference - look at ways to scale solutions.
Switch - by Chip and Dan Heath.
Scaling behavior change.
For me, I don't recommend a lot of business books.
But this is a really good one.
Inspiring and supporting behavior change.
Everybody wants energy.
Challenge is - needs business.
Something a little less tangible - maybe brand
maybe social/communal experience - celebration of sorts
Create excitement around it.
Drives adoption.
Great example of brand equity is in here (Apple iPad)
Allows them to charge essentially double.
is it twice as good as a PC?
How does the brand help?
How does that help it scale.

Ola: So it could be a good thing if a known brand comes behind an idea and pushes it?
Ted: Depends.
Coca-Cola - if they come out with something like that.
In Nigeria - all through Africa - gas cylinder. Take it out/refuel.
If you cannot go around that - coca-cola brand cylinder. 
Ted: Really interesting.
What is the ecosystem. How does it travel through the system.

Gary: Lot of great small ideas - purify water. Not much technology.
Ted: Using sand in Bangladesh.
Gary: Not much investment - why don't they succeed?
Ted: Same reason small businesses
wrong location
bad financing
no one wrong answer -
Look to where solutions work.
Gramene Schoctee - well known for microfinance.
How culturally appropriate is microfinance - 20 years in Bangladesh.
Everyone knows about it - socially acceptable.
Partially through GS they are installing 15,000 solar systems very rapidcly.
Look to examples of successes rather than failures.

You can learn from failure - but that's what the prototype process tells you.

Everson: What question should you be addresssing?
Ted: Unfair, but great question.
So - short answer - don't know.
Long answer - take an approach.
When you think about scalability - what may work in some places will not in others.
There are systems through which you can deliver this - but a multitude of solutions.
What are the conditions - is that a filter for the right entrepreneur? policies? technologies?
That's how I might think about it.

Ted: Hate to bring up Pyramid scheme.
Policy/Technology/Finance - standard supply side stuff.
Customers tell us when we are right.
No design - throuh ethnographic.
Latent needs - unmet needs that people have.
Unexpressed.
Some of the challenge around energy - people don't know how to tell you.
Ask: Do you turn lights off?
Go into people's home - how do you leave? They grab keys, leave TV on.

Identify tensions.
4 weeks.
Next step.
Jose: $4K for prototype.
Let's go.
[Tour]

4:04 [Back at NASA]

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-todo
"Singularity University Energy Team Project 
To Do List

Enter new to do list items with two leading underscores __
Mark to do list items as complete with an X or with with your inititals _x_ or _JC_

Open:
__ technologies you like
__ successes around the world
__ Jim: I know people in DC.

Complete:
_GG_ Create GSP10 Energy calendar (Gary/Emem) [ see also Wiki: http://bit.ly/de3vKX ]
_JG_ Photos at door.
_x_ Jim: Watch 60 Minutes piece. [on Bloom Energy http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/02/18/60minutes/main6221135.shtml ]
_x_ bring a list.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul28-Team-Meeting
"Wednesday
7/28/2010
2:30 pm
Energy Team Meeting

x Alaeddine Mokri
x Alexandru Celac
x Emem Andrew
x Fabio Teixeira
x Gary Gautier

x Hind Ahmed
x John Graves
x Juan Martinez-Barea
x Marko Bitenc
x Mercy Njima
-
x San Ko

2:30 Jose: Plans

IDEO 2:30-4:00 pm Thursday - leave around 1:00 pm
CISCO 8:00 AM Friday
Bo Varga coming Friday night (re: storage)

Jose will be at
http://opensciencesummit.com/presenters/

Aug 9th on:
http://us.sunpowercorp.com/
http://www.skyline-solar.com/
http://www.solfocus.com/en/index.php
http://www.energyrecovery.com/ along with NIF

3:00 Gary: Review of points

Expect about 20 pages in final report. A couple paragraphs for each technology. Then decide which to pursue and which to discard.

Skills:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/a/singularityu.org/ccc?key=0AsLSEEy1D4KtdE5QT19TcFNYZEpuU3N5WjBsbVd3MFE&hl=en#gid=0

Speakers Poll:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/a/singularityu.org/ccc?key=0AnBeYKoQJeyQdFFRd3dPMkVfVTIxTW9GNzV2WlJPUVE&hl=en#gid=0

Next Wednesday:
Ola - Nigeria
Priv - India

New Songdo City
http://www.songdo.com/Default.aspx

TEAMS
Tech
San
Fabio
Al
Hind
Mercy

Matrix
John
Marko
Alex

Planning
Emem
Gary
Juan

AGENDA
Wed
Night
Thurs
Afternoon / Night
Friday
Tony
TP + 
Night
Saturday
Sunday

4:02 Gary: Continued review of technologies
Modifying matrix: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B8MlaJ_H-IwCYzA0NmRlYTQtMWNkZi00ZTkxLTliYzgtMTJkYjkxMWYyY2Q2&hl=en
To new version:
https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B8MlaJ_H-IwCYzA0NmRlYTQtMWNkZi00ZTkxLTliYzgtMTJkYjkxMWYyY2Q2&hl=en

http://web.mit.edu/coal/
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2010/geothermal-0126.html
Here we can find all the studies about energy that the MIT Energy Initiative are releasing.

http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/studies.html

GENERATION
Solar \u2192
Photovoltaics Plant - Alex +
Photovoltaics stand alone - Marko, Emem
Model to make it affordable
Solar Thermal - Al
Balloon - Juan
Stirling - Fabio 
Wind \u2192
Micro wind turbines - John, San
Wind turbines - Al
Balloon Wind Turbine - San
Jose: Re-read Mark Jacobson for both wind/solar
Bio \u2192
Algae (Omega) - Mercy
Geothermal \u2192
- Mercy
Hydro \u2192
Water turbines (home) - ???
Dams - ????
Others \u2192
SNR (thorium) - Marko 
Fuel Cells (like Bloom) - Juan
Costs $800,000 but material is cheap
4:19 Marko: Work from what people can afford
Emem: Or create small scale and have people share.
Marko: Not so much technology, but a model.
Emem: If that is where we are going to go, why do we need to spend time on technology.
Gary: 1/ It is required and 2/ once we have defined problems, find characteristics. Different countries may have different insolation.
Marko: Also, very different numbers.

See Assignments:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/a/singularityu.org/ccc?key=taOtSYugftkKY5wJZhPTCPw&hl=en#gid=0

First Second 
GENERATION 
Solar \u2192 Photovoltaics Plant Alex Al 
Photovoltaics stand alone Emem Hind 
Solar Thermal Al Hind 
Balloon Juan Marko 

Wind \u2192 Micro wind turbines John San 
Wind turbines Emem 
Warm air (stirling/turbine) Fabio Alex 
Balloon Wind turbine San 

Bio \u2192 Algae (Omega) Mercy Gary 

Geothermal \u2192 Wells Mercy Gary 

Hydro \u2192 Water turbines (home) John Fabio 
Dams John Fabio 

Others \u2192 SNR (thorium) Marko 
Fuel Cells Juan 
STORAGE 
Pumped hydro Juan Alex 
Lithium Batteries Al San Mercy 
Fuel-cells (Hydrogen) Al Juan Marko 
Molten Salt John Emem Hind 
CAES John Gary 
Super Capacitor San Mercy Hind Fabio 
Bacteria (bio) Batteries Gary (see Priv message) Marko 

REQUIREMENTS What to look for 
Bibliography (preferably no Wikipedia - then copy the sources) 
1 Description of the technology One paragraph - what it is about 
2 World Leaders 
3 Future developments related to our problem - latest trends - Opportunities 
4 Operating Costs per kWh, per unit 
5 Investment in unit of production, per kWh 
Scalability refers to how easy to make widely available - nuclear=10 yrs, solar panel=1 week 
Input and output of technology 
Efficiency and number of conversions 
Operation - reliabilty (intermittent?) - for example coal=24/7, solar does not 
WHAT IS THE TREND in cost per kWh 
Negative externalities SWOT?? Threats 
Deployment time time to market 

5:06
Gary: Fix things that were wrong.
What does \"education\" in Energy mean?
Jose: What is a watt? Google meters.
Gary: [Reviewer improvements]
Point 3.
4. 
Juan: Somebody who really understands, explain.
Al: kW is RATE.
JG: A 100 watt bulb is so bright.
A 50 watt bulb would be dimmer.
A 200 watt bulb would be brighter.

But the meter does not turn until you burn the light for
a certain amount of time.

Alex: 
3 bulbs
100 - on for 1 hour = 0.1 kW-h
50 - on for 6 hours = 0.3 kW-h
20 - on for 5 minutes = 0.02 kW x 1/12 hours 
Refridgerator - 1000 watts for 24 hours = 24 kW-h
Total usage is kW-hours

How Many Light Bulbs? David MacKay, Cambridge University:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UR8wRSp2IXs&feature=channel

Dear SU-per friends,

Besides the ENERGY BIBLE that I already sent below, please, also check the Wikipedia list of emerging technologies:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_emerging_technologies

Juan also sent the link about the MIT energy reports (http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/studies.html) and don't forget the Mark Jacobson presentation and \"Scientific American\" article (http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/studies.html)

Futuristically yours,

Jos\u00e9 Cordeiro (www.cordeiro.org)

Director, Venezuela Node, The Millennium Project (www.millennium-project.org)

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jun23-Global-Grand-Challenge
"ENERGY

Jim Hurd and Jose Cordeiro, Singularity University
inspiration first - perspiration second 
30M families in China are using hot water heaters - no subsidies

Look forward to short, pointed questions.

Robert Freling, Solar Electric Light Fund (SELF)
http://www.self.org/
Bob Freling's Solar Blog
Because Energy is a Human Right
http://www.bobfreling.com/
since 1994, solar panels in Africa
\"Solar power as a Key Enabler of sustainable development\"
2 billion (1.6 Billion according to World Bank) people who never had a lightbulb. - How do we conceptualise a life without electricty?
[image of Earth at night with Africa dark (except South Africa and the Nile and rim of North Actually lower parts of West Africa are lit up. Most of that region is Cameroon, Nigeria, Togo and Ghana.)]

Bono edited issue of Vanity Fair about the problems in Africa without a single mention of Energy.

imagine not even having light overhead?
Millenium Development Goals access to enegry not included - http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/
Toll of Energy Poverty on Health, Educatiom, Development in general

50 Wattt solar panel used to create energy in the first house experiments

use of micro credit to enable people to start using home energy generation
there are many people around the world who are willing to pay for solar power

Enable creation of a for profit Solar Electric Light Company (SELCO) now has installed over 100,000 systems. (http://www.selco-india.com/)

Desire to go beyond the home with solar energy eg. irrgation systems, rural school (where wires can't reach, says NYT)

SELF took school straight from NO electricity to solar powered, internet connected computer room.

Remote diagnosis. Solar power used for tele-medicine.

iIn Nigeria, solar power for water pumping, refridgeration for health clinic. Lighting for mosque, lighting for streets.
From grinding peanuts by hand to solar powered oil expeller (food processor).

Working with Partners in Health with Dr Paul Farmer - www.pih.org

Recommends Tracy Kidder's Mountains beyond Mountains (http://www.amazon.com/Mountains-Beyond-Healing-World-Farmer/dp/0375506160) -- $19

Benin in Kalale - Integrated systems of solar power for a variety of uses
http://www.stanford.edu/group/solarbenin/
drip irrigation: the solar power pumps water into the tower and then it feeds into the drip system .. you don't even need battries
Use low-power drip system to feed high-value food growth
20% of produce used by women and their families and rest sold for profit at market

Question now is how can we scale? How can we get commitment to help 2 billion people?

We can't afford to let them make our mistakes of developing using fossil fuels

Cost of renewables has come down. Today, using PV is the least cost option.
Solar is Cheaper than diesel generators.

Extending the grid in these rural areas can cost >20k per mile. 

2:25 [applause]

Q: Erika Anderson/US. what is the extent that carbon finance plays into what you do?
A: We didn't set out to provide carbon offset credits.
First became carbon neutral through Nigeria project.
Nice thing from credits from SELF, they are \"charismatic\" credits. Addressing development goals.
Fantastic way to combat poverty and climate change at the same time.

Q: Ludmilla/US. Have you encountered situation when solar power was not effective? What then?

We are by default working off grid. Option is to extend grid, $20,000/mile. Or generators - cheap at first, more expensive over time.

Question of finance is critical. Asking people to pay for 25 years of power upfront. If people had a more long term view, solar would be more attractive.

How do you define affordable?
Affordable is a loaded word. Solar is often affordable today.
Jim: Keep an eye on cleantech deployment funds. Next 1 or 2 yrs.

Chinese are putting a price on carbon quickly. Reduction of snow melt hits their water.

Q: Sasha/Canada. Amazing work. Cultural resistence and challenges?

Certainly. We have not encountered resistance. We wouldn't go where we are not invited. 
Having light is universally wanted. Perhaps isolated tribes that don't want to be bothered. 
Solar cooking is a different story. We have not be involved. Some organizations involved. 100,000s of years of cooking with fire. Women are reluctant to give up.
Once they try them, they love them. Easier to clean up. Gives time to do other things.

Destroy culture? Technology is always a double-edged sword. Rural exodus going on today. People migrate to overcrowded towns and cities every day.
Clean electricity, acces to information, in communities, in close contact with nature and each other.
Preserve dying languages of the world. Remote regions get power, save languages.

Jim: Thank you.
[applause] \x3c-I'm not sure we need to transcribe everything... :) [OK, OK ...]
2:32

Jose: Good afternoon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!(fine, fine) \"w/ energy\" :) \"let's welcome who welcomed us \"

Steve Zornetzer, NASA Ames
Director for Informations Sciences and Technology, NASA Ames
Linkedin: http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenzornetzer
Biography: http://newspace2009.spacefrontier.org/speakers.php?id=93
Board of Directors for Redwood Neuroscience Institute: http://www.rni.org/directors.html
collaborated with Jeff Hawkin (author of On Intelligence0

[no slides]

I'm going to be the odd man out on this panel today. Not home energy.
Focus on different aspect: energy management. Out o of the contect of the project here at Ames.
New construction by main gate: sustainability base.
Facts & Figures.
Built environment - common term used in sustainability.
US.
128 million residences and 
Buildings Consumes now:
40% of e now In5 billion around the world in urban seettings. If we can do something to optimize and maximize the energy management in this environment, we will influence other areas of need drastically. 

How can we make this building sentient and aware of itself?
In neurobiology, sentience depends on a nervous system: thermostat is an example (feeback, communication and effector systems)

As a neurobio, my approach:
How can we make this building sentient?
sensory endings
transducers into something meaningful for nervous system
thermostat is a sensory instrument

What if buildings were given the hardware, software, intelligence, to control their own environments?
Optimize consumption

What if they could learn to improve their performance? Not far fetched.
In 20 yrs we can create infrastructure that will lead to energy mment to reduce consumption, pollution, etc.nergy
12% of Water
emits 40% of CO2

20 years from now In5 billion around the world in urban seettings. If we can do something to optimize and maximize the energy management in this environment, we will influence other areas of need drastically. 

How can we make this building sentient and aware of itself?
In neurobiology, sentience depends on a nervous system: thermostat is an example (feeback, communication and effector systems)

As a neurobio, my approach:
How can we make this building sentient?
sensory endings
transducers into something meaningful for nervous system
thermostat is a sensory instrument

What if buildings were given the hardware, software, intelligence, to control their own environments?
Optimize consumption

What if they could learn to improve their performance? Not far fetched.
In 20 yrs we can create infrastructure that will lead to energy mment to reduce consumption, pollution, etc.

Here at NASA:
Sustainability Base
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/ames/greenspace/sustainability-base.html
Designed to be the cleanest building in the federal gov't. 
Generate its own energy
Net energy producer
Testbed for new tech.
Water purification system. takes grey water and purify it to a purified form of grey water which will be used for toilet flushing, so don't need to rely on potable water.
Adaptive Intelligent control system developed for space deployed to the space station and Mars, we know the software works
Siemens control system, commercial off the shelf system(COTS) underlying the adaptive intelligent control system
Goes to web and knows weather forecast
Knows people's schedules
Self monitoring almost every aspect of building environment. (a mesh of over 2000 (?) wireless sensors)
Self diagnosing
Deep Geothermal wells, no AC, day to day planning of heating/cooling based upon the current weather, photovoltaics
Optimization algorithms and planning and learning ability.

Could have a very large impact with technology available today and affect a billion people.

Q: Rand: Does this create a huge achilles heel in terms of hacking the system or inherrant errors in the software?
Siemens system beneath the control system is robust enought to fall back to normal building mode???

Q: Jan : Do you have any plans to scale the sentient building approach to an urban dimension? 

2:50k

Saul Griffith, Makani Power

Linkedin: http://www.linkedin.com/pub/saul-griffith/0/71a/17
Website: http://www.saulgriffith.com/
Biography: http://www.saulgriffith.com/shortbio.html

most well known for his low cost eyeglass manufacture technique... neat! http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2002/eyeglasses.html

Questions: Lightning? Birds? Ice?

Small-scale wind energy Technical Report (direct link to 7 MB pdf)
http://www.carbontrust.co.uk/SiteCollectionDocuments/Various/Emerging%20technologies/Technology%20Directory/Wind/Small-scale%20Wind%20Energy%20-%20Technical%20Report.pdf

Rats, that was a neat talk... I wish we had the notes!

Here's a transcript of a talk that is much shorter, but has some of the same points:
http://dotsub.com/view/2a7dc667-f218-43a4-bbf7-2dc22878a671/viewTranscript/eng?timed=true

His TED talk also looks to cover much of the same ground: http://www.ted.com/talks/saul_griffith_on_kites_as_the_future_of_renewable_energy.html

The whole kit weights like 1.5 tons, and the cable weights around 400Kgs (or 600, cant remember)...

Kate Steel, World Bank

Biography: http://poet.mit.edu/people/students.htm#steel

PHD from MIT

\"Rural Energy Systems in Africa\"

disclaimer: not representing world bank here!

People using biomass for cooking is as problematic as lack of electricity.

[photo of mud hut] \"This is your customer.\" (other pics: http://tinyurl.com/muddhutt)
Very rural. Electricity grids are difficult. 
Poor. Not as big a challenge as you might think. 
Three choices:
1/ parafin, batteries
2/ wait for grid
3/ interim solutions

Status quo - indoor cooking is smoky. Extremely deadly to women and children.
Biomass needs to be collected. Burden on environment.

Grid? Reaching less than 20% of people.

Saul brought up centralized generation. Also need distribution.

Grid in 20 years? Target is 30-40 years or much, much longer. Not a great option.

Interim solutions. Not best technologies, but bridges. Home system tied into mini-grid.
What is working?

1. Solar panels. PV is good source. Relatively cost effective, not cheap.
Easily deployed.
Prices coming down.
Lower maintenance.
All of these systems require storage. 
Panel lasts 25 years, battery lasts 5 years. about 25-30% of system cost. Caveat.

2. Making charcol from corn cobs. Works well.
Biomass stoves.
Challenge here too. Caveat. Still use biomass.

3. Home systems and community level systems.
Donor-financed community grid.
Diesel generator in rural Tanzania. He has a chair to guard it. He has run his own distribution system.
Why this works: this is his business. Mixed customer base. Homes and business strip.
Important to get a mix of customers. If they have the same load duration curve, it is a problem.

This is somewhat working. Blends into what is possible. Are working but could be expanded.

First, Bangladesh. Addresses both electricity and cooking. 400,000 systems sold thanks to the microfinance industry. Moved into biogas. 

Used flexible tubing to provide gas from chicken's waste to homes nearby. Cooking gas and electricity. Runs on pure biogas. This works in Bangladesh. (Excellent example of a simple solution that works in local context!)

Lighting for rural Africa. Boiled down to lighting in off-grid areas. Develop specifically for this market. Fewer than 10 showcased - basically camping lanterns. Second showcase, 70 products. Top photo shows examples designed specifically for this market. Modular. Multiple input sources: pedal power, ...
Battery question - in industrial markets, goal is density. In rural Africa, 200 pound battery would have theft deterrent advantage. 

Fuel kit decentralization. Kenya.

Shift toward decentralization. Example: Decentralized phone charging stations

We tend to think in a grid mentality. Sugar cane power is still put on grid.
US model started from centralized grid, now getting distributed.
Africa may be more fully distributed approach which grows into connected system.

Q: Alison Lewis/USA. Developing products for this part of the country. Design? 

A: I can't take any credit for lighting Africa program. Lot of what they are doing is market research. Promotional materials. Ideas for it to pull back and become self sustaining. All technologies are built themselves.

Q: Kausar: You gave us a list of things that work. What does NOT work?

A: Plenty of things that don't work. A lot of them are cultural. Biogas didn't work in Africa. Solar cookers don't work (in Africa) -- maybe in refugee camps. If you don't think about who will be using them, they probably won't work.

Q: Everson/Brazil: Sugar cane model. Biogas. Centralized model?

A: Not so much in Brazil. Model there is very different from rest of world.
Quite limited in Africa. Mauritius uses boiogas generated from sugar cane. Kenya has one generator.

Q: Lizzy/ US (with awesome british accent!). Sanitation system.
A: Only think I know is that biogas is great for dealing with sanitation as well.
School toilet box generates energy.

Jim: Geothermal project. Google behind work.
A: Great success for Kenya. They developed a good industry along Rift Valley. Developed smartly. Very good geophysicists and engineers. World Bank with lenders have put 300mW of geothermal- great due to base load. Solar/wind not big baseload. Hydropower is usual baseload source. Other options are nuclear or coal.

Wasn't familiar with the term base load: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Base_load_power_plant

Jim: Thanks a lot.
3:53

Jose: I'm going to become African also.
How many know William. Incredible person. Just on video at MIT. 2 hours.
He has been working on windmills. The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind.
We wanted to have the real thing.
Jo-burg. SA Leadership Academy.
Coming to US to study.
Went to Dartmouth.

At TED, never saw so many white people.
[playing TED video 4 minutes]
http://www.ted.com/talks/william_kamkwamba_on_building_a_windmill.html

William Kamkwamba, Wind mills in Malawi
[age 19]

Website: http://williamkamkwamba.typepad.com/
Biography: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Kamkwamba
Twitter: http://twitter.com/wkamkwamba

Had idea at 14 to make a windmill
read a book and tried it and made one!
didn't exactly copy the book, book had 3 plates he had 4

Made windmill out of plastic pipe, pulley.
When wind blows it makes kW. Two radios, lights.
Wants to build another one for irrigation for crops.
For entire village.

Jose: TED talk 2007 he was 19. First windmil he built at 14.
Just looking at pictures, he built a windmill.

Jim: CNN article has good update, expansion as of a year ago.
People thought he was crazy.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/africa/10/05/malawi.wind.boy/index.html

1st TED talk video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8yKFVPOD6o 
2nd TED talk video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crjU5hu2fag&feature=channel

George Gaboury, San Francisco Tesla Society

Jim: Since 1999, president of SF Tesla Society.
Since 2003, board of CA Citizens for Health Freedom.
Space show.
Strong advocate for inventors rights.

Charles Ostman, Institute for Global Futures

Linkedin: http://www.linkedin.com/pub/charles-ostman/0/16b/964
Website: http://www.historianofthefuture.com/
Biography: http://www.biota.org/ostman/sfsuchrl.htm

Jim: Turned Eastern bloc technology into plowshares.
Will so you something out in the parking lot after we finish.

Now for something completely different.
George is the one with the vision. I'm more technical.

Plasma Fuel Reformer - change chemistry of fuel
Wood
Oil
Human waste
Small refinery.

Not just jobs, business, but get energy to more granular application.

Cover basic topics:
PFR - what is it?
80% sea water, 20% oil ???
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF8IsifMuBs 
[I understand from this video it can be any water - to be clarified]

Why use a fuel reformer?
Schematic of refinery. Cracker. Liquified vapor. Lot of process, energy.
Idea was to create very small, self contained unit.
Spinning at high temperature, high velocity.
applications on tractors, generators. About 1000 around the world.
France
Germany
now US.
Attributes:
Two things. Cut down pollutants, use of petroleum by 30-50%.

Examples: 
External electricity used to push plasma. Bulky/complex. Takes a lot of energy.

Jim: Communicate how easy or difficult.

This is harder one.
Ceramatec supplies industrial machinery of all kinds. Also requires external voltage.
http://www.ceramatec.com/technology/other-ceramic-technologies/synthetic-fuel/plasma-reforming.php

MIT project - plasmatron.
Somewhat expensive. Takes energy.
plasmatron
http://yeswaterisfuel.com/2010/05/22/plasma-fuel-reformer-or-the-plasmatron/

Version from Italy.
Version in China - palladium as catalyst.
Highly complext.

Can we do something different? Yes.
Reaction chamber. Turn it into a different kind of fuel. 
First in 30s in France.
Used in Germany during war.

Scheamtic shows nothing you couldn't buy at a hardware store.
Charged plasma state breaks down the chemistry. That part gets complicated.

Heat exchanger. Around for 30 years or more. Difference is magnetized rod to help develop a thermal coefficient. 80 nanometer film. Runs into field of 10-12 tesla.

Jim: Who is using it now?

Can be put together in a few hours.
Students in High School doing this.
Minimum amount of machining required.

Jim: Say it again.

20-50% increase in vehicle mileage.
Some are a bit easier than others.
Something like this can demonstrate the principle.

In may parts of the world, you don't have gasoline around.
Puts a lot of countries on the map.
We'd like to see this around the world.

Jim: Will void warranty on US vehicles. Better on older cars.

Suggested use on tractors.
Pollution reduction is over 90%. Don't have to use palladium to reduce pollution - uses ordinary metals. If you are going to have China going to one-car-per-person, need cleaner solution.

Multi-bubbler array. Ways to mix and match.

Video: NBC news.
\"With as much as 800,000 gallons of oil spewing into Gulf. Engine which runs on 80% sea water and 20% oil. Not that complicated. Would work. Mix of oil burns cleaner. It did burn for us ... up to a point. Inventors firing up new solutions.

BP said, 'No thanks.'\"\"

We're hoping BP will reconsider.
Smoke came out because I flooded engine. 

Brand new prototype.

(Can use a diversity of fuel types)

ran a mixture of sea water and crude oil

Q: Derek/Canada. Amazing. 1967. What is barrier?

Social barrier. Snafus with other entities.

Q: Vincent. Lot of technical slides. What makes it work?

Will gladly give you the technical stuff. Vortex plasma fuel reformer. This is better version.
Any hydrocarbon will do.
Just like cracking column. When you convert something into vapor and pull of elements, we are not trying to crack whole chain. Small refinery.

Jose: Very easy to make. Challenge you to make something better.

Marco: Tomorrow's homework!

David H/New Zealand: Why no power?

Multiple fields. Cloud pulled through chamber.

Institute in Oaklahoma. Offers classes. Some available free on-line. Do experiments. Communicate with the inventor. Plenty of OEM (original equipment manufacture) opportunities.

Our point is to get this out there.

Q: Justin / Canada. Another technical. NOX drops. Why?

Burns more efficiently. Recycles exhaust through multiple times.
By using the bubbler.

Jim: Thanks. Talk more in Q&A.
Now panelists to come up. Questions for them: 
What is one interesting/unusual development in last year that points to future?
Where do you see your organization in 5-6 years in scale?
4:24

Panel:
35+ minutes.
Saul, what is interesting development that points to future?

Saul: I think the NIF at Livermore will do a net positive fusion reaction. Still 2 decades before it contributes. To give everyone an American lifestyle, fusion does it.
Jim: May do site visit.

Robert: First like to echo Kate's talk explosion in LED lighting. Combine with small scale solar panels, combines into many types of products. Innovative lighting solutions.
Pure PV side - when first invented by NASA in 50s to power satellites, cost 100s of dollars per watt.
PV died in its infancy.
Decline in cost of solar cells.
Particularly thin film. First solar. 80 cents a watt.
Nano and organic may be even cheaper. Lot of innovation. Cusp of big change.

George: Gulf will awaken public. Need ethical, environmentally sound solutions.

Charles: Amount of water to make silicon wafers is huge. Lots of energy. Computer chips, displays. If you could grow the structures, that would alleviate 80% of energy impact.

Kate: GIS - Geographic Information Systems can really help.

Robert: As economic/technology sector, has become most dynamic. Lots of sectors in the economy. Many floundering. Sustainable energy is going to take great innovation. 

Jim: Who leads in this will reap the benefits. 
China's command/control is starting to move fast on clean tech.
Makes for a fascinating race.

Q: Mike Chen/USA: Great talks. Energy to developing countries. Gap between power have/have not?
Charles: Policy drives it. Makes things possible. As inventors, simpler is better.
You can buy this at the local hardware store. Put this in remote parts of the world.
Access to education, power, situation can change.

A: Kate. Tricky question of have/have not. If you treat energy access as a social good - the drive in US. You can't price at market prices. Becomes unsustainable.
Some countries have shifted to cost-recovery tarriffs.
That is the tradeoff.
http://www.infrastructureafrica.org/aicd/tools/models/utility-tariffs-affordability

A: Current regulatory situation - huge challenges. Insurability (?) must prove to be as reliable as old technology.
Advantage to developing countires.
SME means \"Small and Medium-sized Enterprise\" 

In both situations, financing issues. Incredibly high up front costs. Particularly renewable.
We build natural gas quickly because they ae financeable.

Berkeley has their \"PACE?\" model. That model is needed everywhere.
World is much flatter. Right technology is the same everywhere.
High dynamic will dominate.
Solve big energy problems .
Figuring out how to finance the best technology will be the ultimate solution.

Q: Denmark. Microfinancing. What are the hard issues. Who are the goverments/organizations to work with?

Kate: As far as microfinance - it works, but not in all cases. Seasonal. How to make different installments. Standard model needs to be adapted to environment.
Innovation is needed to figure out payment plans esp in rural areas as incomes are seasonal.
Won't say which are good, which not.

Jim: Microfinance has not transitioned into SMEs.
Small Medium Enterprise.

Kate: End of the line lighting. No payback built in.

Charles: General hydroponics. Low cost aquaponics. Some models don't work. Others do. Wrap model around the technology.

Financing at household level. Had a model for cost recovery - money on kerosene spent on solar instead.
With new LED lighting, a lot cheaper. Significantly.
Solar in 90's 4-500 dollars. At most half could afford even with financing.

Bogo light. Manufactured, $10. Many more can afford. http://www.bogolight.com/

Drip irrigation in West Africa - helping women generate income.
Solar market garden return on investment in 2-3 years.

Jim: How?

Growing food and selling it to the local market. Higher prices in cities.
Working with women collectives (35 women). Drip irrigation system costs $25,000. With microfinance, it will be to group that collectively payback over time. They can pay back over 2.3 years.
That is not microfinance anymore.

Jim: Heifer out of Little Rock. Started with giving goat/cow tor family. Now they need dairies to keep milk cold - - using renewable energy.
http://www.heifer.org/

Gates gave $45 million. To scale up in two countries.

Q: Sherry/US. Future forecast - one primary approach or integrative?

Let a 1000 flowers bloom.

Saul: About 4 flowers. We know the total resource assessment. Solar / Wind / Nuclear and Fusion are exceptions
Peak uranium by mid century.
Small geothermal.
Small biofuels.
[hydro?]

Jim: I believe chaos and emergent behavior.

George: I think there is power in energy diversity.
Charles: Diversity is the key to evolutionary systems. Recognize \"perpetual morphology of evolution\" [whew!]

Solar oxide fuel cells. Present, not marketed yet. 60% efficient system running on methan. Produces hydrogen.
60% is extremely good.
Solar is 25% efficiency.

Charles: Helium 3. Low cost fusion systems. Pathway to mining of asteroids.
Next big thing will be strategic minerals. If those minerals are not available, it will all stop.
I believe answer is in space.

George: Diversity of sources. Less popular ideas need funding now to see where this goes. Not just the ones with buzz. 

Charles. If we give 1/2 a trillion to banks, which is better investment.

Q: Jason Dunn/ Florida: 96% of power gen is turbine. Why? 

George: Take a look at Tesla Turbine. Simple thing to build, had almost no study. Deserves more.
https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Tesla_turbine

Saul: Fascinating question. Linear regression models. Crudest method. 
First derivative of slope and extrapolate.
A lot of just historical laziness.
Second reality, all of large scale plants are financed for 30-50 years.
Coal plant life is 60+ years. Lots of inertia in system. Still paying off financing side.

You need to change the way we finance things. Can sort of ignore forecasts.
Any carbon cap is not in model.
If you believe we will have response to it, 

Charles: Dubious of carbon cap.
Economic models are grid-required, grid-dependent.
What about models that are opt-in?
I say no. We are at cusp where a centralized system could be replaced by diversified, decentralized or even [home systems]

Q: Eugine/France. Smart grid implementation?

Saul: \"Smart grid\" genie is out of the box. Like \"Nanotech\" is a marketing word.
We put in 1400gW into grid. Deliver about 440gW. We operate at about 30% efficency.
Smart grid can effect a bit.
Can help utilities iron out inconsistencies.
Power demand goes up and down all day.

Not panacea.

Lots of people looking at putting power back on the grid. 

George: California Prop 16. Almost had situation where Marin utility provides lines, but can buy power from whereever. If you are producing more power through your solar, wind and can give back, you are not compensated, unless you are in Marin. Hope more of these CCAs will pop up.
http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Proposition_16_%28June_2010%29
[Community Choice Aggregators (CCAs)]

Model where home energy system resupplies grid.

Q: Diva/Italy: Solar.

A: We've talked about PV. What about solar thermal. Luce International. Parabolic troughs heating tubes full of oil. Taken off in big way in American Southwest

On large scale, solar thermal is cheaper than PV -- for now (with innovations on thin films, that could change). PV can work in low light conditions. Building roofs, roadways. Much more diverse.

PV can go anywhere. Solar thermal is capital intensive and large scale by nature.

Jim: Details.

Desertec
http://www.desertec.org/
https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Desertec

Another company - Bright source. Heliotowers. Molten salt to store the energy. Still get power in cloudy weather.

Charles: About scale and application.
Konarka - Clothing that is a solar collector. Tents. - http://www.konarka.com/
Paint.

Jim: Still prototype. 

Charles: At other end, liquified sodium ...
Favorite - solar system in space. Turbine, microwave energy beamed to Earth.

Saul: PV and solar thermal. PV will asymptote at 40%.

20w per square meter. Need to cover double every road. That is end result of going 100% solar. Not sure you want to give up that much land area.
Land area use - I have a map which puts fuels on US map. Covering 20% of landmass with clean energy solution.
Think PV versus solar thermal. Can do learning curve selling small units. High cost.
ST is big, expensive machines. 10s to 100s of mW. Which wins will be a finacial question.

Kate: PV can go anywhere. ST is extremely limited for siting. Land is not free. Sometimes highly contested.

George: Intelligent passive solar design of buildings.

Jim: General question. Also want to be thinking about where can we stretch our imaginations 5-10 years from now.

Existing Solar thermal facility in SoCal: http://www.esolar.com/

Q: Alaidinne / Abu Dhabi: Robert, which will dominate?

Jim: when?

Q: For Saul: availability of source - wind vs solar. Not efficiency?

Saul: That was my arguement. I wasn't trying to say wind was the total answer.
Planning 100 years out, we have to plan for technologies.
Put most coins in bucket for solar. 4th is biofuels.
If I was divvying out the resource dollars ...
Some have intolerable land use.
One nuclear reactor is a gW.

Jim: Question back to questioner. Work as NASCAR (?) Tell us your experience there.

Alaidinne: Experience was unique. Conditions are different from other parts of world. Gather every technology and assess it in Abu Dhabi. At same time, adapt to our conditions.

Humidity, other conditions are different in US.

PV plants in 10 mW ... now 100 mW, trying to build 2 gW.

Saul: Homework is to draw on map 1 terraW.

If you take a piece of land 10 miles by 10 miles in Nevada, covered with solar cells, could generate enough power for entire US.

Saul: Provably wrong.

Charles: Wouldn't use silicon. We're going to run out of it.

American Superconductor. Highly conductive wires.
Must match with costs.
Not easy to manufacture solar cells.

To answer your question, 

Jim: 20 minutes more. [5:16]

Crystaline technology dominant now. Thin films will dominate. Cheap, non-toxic. Can be deployed anywhere.
Superconductivity: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconductivity

Charles: bio-films are great, but less efficient. If you want different density, or solar thermal ... mix and match approach.

Q: Eric - subsitutining present consumption. Some consume 10x less.
Most profitable way to go about it - decrease need for energy.
Blocks of houses that produce more energy than they use.
Like the internet.
Already happening.
Comment?
Applies to rich countries.

A: Charles. Depends on definition of smart grid. My definition is selling back.
Smart materials.
Favorite example, in Czech Republic. Cement is 1/10th weight of normal cement because styrofoam is mixed in.

Make houses that cost less, yet still comfortable.
Everybody should be able to sell back to grid.

Jim: Drivers 55 mph. Tried to legislate that. Can't just dictate efficiency. We need to do both.

Kate: Demand side management. No one has mentioned McKenzie ????
Takes consumer.
I'm installing solar on my roof. Only reason is the unbelievably high incentives.
Tax payers are subsidising my PV system.

https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Energy_demand_management

Saul: [at white board]
Assume 20% solar. Transmission at 80%. 250 x .2 x .8
US demand is terraW. So you need 1000 km square.

Toby: It is 100 by 100 miles.
Take Nevada Solar One - 

Saul: not sure that is true.

Derek: 

300 km on side.

Saul: definitely NOT 10. Be super careful. 3.6 tW. Delivered 400 mW. 
Constant used watts and per square meter of land.

Q: Candice / Canada. Energy and very expensive infrastructure I know well. Power far from load centers. Localized credits? Alternative supplies integration?

Charles: May be a technology specific question. May not be an exact answer.

George: Question to Saul - tranportation energy? 3.6 tW is all primary energy consumed measured at source. If you went to all electric transport, it is 1/3 of 3.6. It would go to 3 tW instead of 3.6 if you could magically convert.

You could argue that only 2 tW if ideally efficient.
China will want more energy. What we give up, they will consume.
How can the rate payer subsidize equipment?
We don't really have mechanism. You can voluntarily pay for schemes.
Not many people will throw in 10,000 dollars to go in on local system.

Q: Sweden. Out of the box. Sustainable cities. Teams looking at different ways.
One team looked at mechanical energy - people and transport movements.

A: Charles. Berkeley - scavenger energy harvesting. On stairways, walkways to capture energy.

Elastomeric material. Not much gain for cost of installing things.
Sensors can be run by scavenger systems.
Some specific systems, but not tW to run grid. Might be useful to run system.

Saul: E-mails which make me irrate. Forbes - completely wrong. Majority of wasted energy goes into heat. 1-2%. Never expect it to do more than power sensor for cat door.
Money put on that is wasted capital.

Charles: lot of waste heat. What about infrared volatic.

Saul: Einstein showed - rectena system could get to 80%. Reality is we can make at cents per mile. Diodes need to be much better.

Nano diodes under development.

Jim: Solexant. http://www.solexant.com/
Last question.

Q: David/US. Two technologies: MIT micro turbine. Toshiba nuclear on liquid lithium 6 small enough to fly on airplane.
http://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news-toshiba-micro-nuclear-12.17b.html

Charles: would not want to be on ground when nuclear plane crashes.

Saul: Worked with microturbines project. Great idea. Efficiency is proportional (Carnot efficiency) to range of temperature. Not that much higher. Microgeneration is fantastic. But what fuels.

What portion of global land mass do you want to give up to grow your fuels?

Saul: Stewart Brand is huge fan of micro nuclear. US Navy has 50 mW 100mW reactors with great safety record.
Would need thousands. How could you secure so many reactors?

Jim: Wired magazine articles. Baby nukes. Thorium nukes. Fuel supposed to be less toxic.

Kate: One of the challenges at low income scale, you can't take a lot of technology risk. Most are undercapacity for electricity. You don't want to try experiments.
There may be place for technology risk. Much easier in US.

Charles: no flying nukes.

Optimizing design passively 

Kate: I think there are game changer technologies out there, but in the meantime a lot of attention needs to be paid to the regulatory and financing side of things.

Charles: Proteomic construction kits. If you can grow the materials and grow them around on nano scale -- that's the big win.

George: Find ways to make it affordable and clean. Major factor in what happens to our civilization.

Robert: We have solutions today to end energy poverty in the world.
Close to 2 bn people to store vaccines, or pump water, that is inexcusable.
Good news is that there are some steps forward.
Energy as a Human Right.
UN has recognized error they made in leaving out energy.
World Energy Outlook will include universal access chapter.
Bring existing solutions to bear.

Saul: Ending energy poverty. Set of aesthetic choices and compromises.
When you draw line between have and have nots.
5-600 watts per person in some places.
If you pick lowest \"tolerable\" energy use, there are still 150 countries under it.
We need to price carbon.
Don't have hope that renewables will beat coal unsubsized.
If you want a reasonable climate world
fusion
heat engine that doesn't use water
break laws of physics.

Jim: Moving to quantum physics.

Saul: I hope we get new physics. Better story.
Last new physics was 1910.
I know I sound like the asshole in the room. Level of literacy about energy is pathetic.
Get energy literacy.

Jim: End on that. Announcements from Salim.

---
Commentary:

June 23, 2010
14:07John Graves: Thank you whoever posted the list of speakers in advance. Big help.
14:12Zain Jaffer : Is William Kamkwamba going to be speaking today?
14:12Emma Brooke: Yep
14:12Zain Jaffer : Isn't he one of TED's most viewed videos?
14:12Zain Jaffer : This is so cool.
14:19dc: @zain - told you so!
14:19dc: low tech, high-impact
14:19dc: thats where its at
14:20dc: and paul farmer is the coolest guy ever
14:20David Hutchison: I thnk this is just amazing and inspiring. I am concerned about the lack of infrastructure for when these technologies break down
14:21dc: @david - this is really cheap infra
14:21David Hutchison: as everything eventually does. Or just replacement parts through normal wear and tear
14:21David Hutchison: but let me be clear that I am not saying this is bad. This is wonderful
14:22David Hutchison: If people become relient on something and then it breaks, they could be worse off than they were before
14:22Sasha: I saw Paul F speak in Boston last year . . . super interesting
14:22Sasha: Matt Damon was there too but he didn't live up to the Goodwill Hunting intelligence expectations
14:22John Graves: Interesting approach to reading/reviewing a book as a team:http://mbmsummary.blogspot.com/2005/11/summaries.html
14:22David Hutchison: *reliant
14:24Emem: Most times, solar panels dont break down for at least 20 years. The problems might be common electrical problems like wirings. The NGOs provide low level skill training for the villagers on this and more skilled workers are in the cities and could help out with more serious problems.
14:28Emem: If we can have 'mortgages' for solar panels it could be more affordable
14:28Julio: Emem, the same problem is going on in native areas in SudAmerica
14:29David Hutchison: Yes, I was talking more about the peanut crusher thing and electrical issues rather than the panels themselves, which come working, out of the box.
14:29David Hutchison: and generally keep working if you keep them clean
14:30David Hutchison: But you're right, as long as there is skill increase and engineering knowledge and supplies transmitted, I think that's the important thing for continuation and further increase
14:31Emem: OK! They are mostly low tech and local/city mechanics can handle most of the problems. Sometimes the parts can be locally fabricated.
14:32David Hutchison: ok. That's interesting, thanks Emem.
14:39Eric Dahlstrom: I just got dropped by EtherPad and had to reconnect a couple times.. let me know if is happening to you
14:39David Hutchison: Etherpad goes down about twice per hour for me, for a few minutes each. Same for others?
14:39unnamed: yes
14:39Diva: yep
14:40Javier: Yes, we all go down
14:40Zain Jaffer : Yes, tis getting rather annoying.
14:40David Hutchison: I think we all go down at the same time, looking at laptops around me
14:40John Graves: Yes. I get drop outs too.
14:40Shary: I've only gotten one
14:40Shary: using firefox
14:40Shary: sorry, two
14:40Eric Dahlstrom: Good to know.. I will ask Ken to investigate
14:40Zain Jaffer : Someone should tell this to Larry Page at the next networking event.
14:41Bill Bing: none for me so far on chrome...?
14:43Emem: am on chrome and it has dropped 2ice today
14:44unnamed: am on chrome and got about two
14:44David Hutchison: I'm on chrome and dropped 4-5 times today
14:44David Hutchison: so maybe we are getting dropped at different times
14:44dc: this is sweeet.. smarter buildings
14:44Justin: buildings with a spine... sweet
14:45Javier: Very cool
14:46John Graves: OK. Ames has a golf course which is going to use reclaimed water:http://environment.arc.nasa.gov/articles/index.html
14:47Sasha: I wonder about what happens when there is competing human intervention
14:48Sasha: I.e. People opening windows, etc
14:49EK: can you use geothermal wells for cooling a building? how?
14:51matt kern: @ sasha, sensors on the window to know when theyre open
14:51matt kern: ?
14:51Justin: standard heat exchanger used in refrigeration for for example
14:53Sasha: can someone secretely take notes?
14:53Rich: Hey guys, can someone elaborate on 'getting dropped' from etherpad?
14:53matt kern: it says \"reconnecting\" or something along those lines
14:54kelly.lewis: test
14:54Kidist: getting disconnected
14:54Rich: hm. alright, thanks guys
14:55John Graves: NOW you see why I like kites !!!
15:08Rich: Hey all, the dropping problem is most likely due to the strain on NASA's WiFi from so many streaming connections... We're gonna upgrade the Etherpad server tonight anyway as a safeguard
15:36Tigist: the lady holding wood is ethiopia
15:42Emem: Interesting use of micro finance for energy business on a small scale
15:43Emma Brooke: I lived in Accra1
15:43Emma Brooke: Accra!*
15:43Kidist: for how long?
15:44Emma Brooke: Not long - 2 1/2 months
15:44Zain Jaffer : She's speaking pretty fast
15:44Kidist: should we show the sign ? :)
15:45Kidist: i meant the \"slow dawn \" sign
15:46Emem: will she understand the sign?
15:46Kidist: down*
15:47Zain Jaffer : She's about to finish
15:47Zain Jaffer : Very interesting speaker though
15:47Kidist: yes, she is\\
15:54Bill Bing: Came across a pretty interesting article on related subject matter by googling Kate Steel World Bank if anyone is interested:http://www.globalization.ac.nz/2010/03/10/how-food-and-water-are-driving-a-21st-century-african-land-grab/
15:55Zain Jaffer : This is amazing...
15:55Zain Jaffer : Too bad he isn't here for real :(
16:00Zain Jaffer : We should watch the second video..
16:11Aaron: Did he mention cost of parts?
16:17John Graves: SNAFU is an acronym meaning situation normal: all fucked up.
16:18Kausar N. Samli: these guys are awesome...and hilarious.
16:21John Graves: Yes, sorry David. I do know that ...
16:22John Graves: OEM - Original Equipment Manufacture
16:27Sasha: OLED Wallpaper . . .http://bit.ly/bkuK4W
16:28Vincent: has anyone understood what goes into as fuel, e.g. petroleum and salt water or any kind of water or any other liquid?
16:30Vincent: OLEDs are the future of light as they emit natural like light and no heat. fun application of OLED:http://www.ubergizmo.com/15/archives/2009/04/you_fade_to_light_interactive_display.html
16:30Emma Brooke: Has anyone else noticed the Matt Ridley talk has been removed the scedule, or is that just an error with my computer...?
16:30Emma Brooke: schedule*
16:30Shary: mine too
16:30Shary: hm
16:30Shary: :-/
16:31Sam Thorp: Yep, looks like he's cancelled...
16:31Emma Brooke: Maybe he realised he used to work for Northern Rock...
16:32Zain Jaffer : Just like NR realised it all too late
16:38Santiago: Matt Ridley is indeed cancelled.
16:39Aaron: :(
16:46Kausar N. Samli: has anyone mentioned harnessing tidal wave energy?
16:46Kidist: no one
16:47Derek Jacoby: yes, it was on Saul's slide. Was very small.
16:47Derek Jacoby: I don't remember the number, though.
16:47Sam Thorp: Yeah, Saul mentioned it after his talk
16:47Kidist: ow
16:48Sam Thorp: Effectively, if we harnessed all of it, completely flattening the ocean, it would account for maybe 30% of our energy needs
16:48Sam Thorp: So he dismissed it
16:49Aaron: Good point, Sam. For anyone who has spent time researching this field, what do you guys think about Sherry's question regarding the future forecasting of the energy market? 1,000 flowers blooming or only a handful or less?
16:52Kausar N. Samli: it may not be 1000 flowers, but I do think it will be more than just a handful. Mainly becuase necessity will force innovation on a local contextual level (e.g: Kate's bangalesh biogas example for cooking and generating elec.)
16:58John Graves: panacea n. A remedy for all diseases, evils, or difficulties
17:01matt kern: what's interesting, no one has mentioned capturing the energy of weather....
17:01Shary: yeah, I meant more whether there's going to be a dominant system, not ONE AND ONLY ONE
17:02Sasha: i wondered about that capture . . especially as we get better at predicting extreme weather
17:03matt kern:http://www.hurricaneenergy.org/HurricaneEnergyReleaseVersion2I.pdf
17:06Kidist: but we don't have hurricanes the whole year every year
17:09matt kern: but if we could capture the energy from them and store it it would just add to the arsinal
17:11Kidist: that was i thought , again can you mention some of the ways to store energy?
17:13matt kern: fuel cells and batteries are probably the best ways
17:14matt kern:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_storage
17:15Kidist: nice! thanks
17:15Aaron: Grab the whiteboard!
17:15matt kern: a fully contained antimatter reaction suspended in a gravitational field is also a possibility.....
17:17Emem: Batteries are very expensive (25% of solar alternative cost from last presentation) and take up too much space and are not very efficient. One panelist projected an efficiency of 60% for future fuel cells.
17:36Dmitriy: http://www.alphabetenergy.com/this company came out of the Lawrence Berkeley Lab
17:37Staff: it's a thermoelectric approach to waste heat recovery
17:37Staff: and it's inexpensive
17:38Sasha: awesome stuff Dmitriy
17:39David Hutchison: There are more numbers thrown around in this intro than any other. There is also more confusion. Doing nothing with energy, but simply mitigating the confusion would affect a billion people
17:39David Roberts: Toshiba's reactorhttp://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news-toshiba-micro-nuclear-12.17b.html
17:40John Graves: @David H. Great point.
17:40David Hutchison: Make that 6 billion
17:44Vincent: where is the central depsoitory for all pictures?
17:44Vincent: also, has one of you seen where the OC video is?
17:45Staff: There's a place for pictures on the portal
17:45Vincent: tx. will you upload the SU video onto the website as well?
17:46Staff: but there's also a picasa account
17:46Emma Brooke: There are no photos/vids on it yet :(
17:46Vincent: there are no pictures though:https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/gsp10/photos
17:47Staff: I'll ask our media guy Matt
17:47Vincent: picasa has no recent pictures
17:47Vincent: tx
17:47Staff: SU has a youtube page as well

---
Additional links:
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jun23-Global-Grand-Challenge-links

http://www.freepatentsonline.com/6793898.html
http://www.teslatech.info/ttstore/articles/geet/geet.htm
http://pesn.com/2009/06/9501546_Paul-Pantone_of_Geet_released/
http://gizmodo.com/5329681/engine-runs-on-mountain-dew
http://www.teslatech.info/ttstore/books/750001.htm
http://www.geetinternational.com/

Radical Energy Efficiency (10X-100X)
http://www.rmi.org

Increasing electricity systems efficiency 10X
http://www.smallisprofitable.org/

Profitably going off oil
http://www.oilendgame.com/

Sweden Government strategy to go off oil by 2020-2025
http://www.sweden.gov.se/content/1/c6/06/70/96/7f04f437.pdf

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul20-Team-Meeting
"Tuesday
July 20, 2010
2:39 pm

Energy Team Meeting
Tim Williams
Slides: http://bit.ly/bMpTd7
twillia@griffin.uga.edu
Bela Nagy
Slides: http://bit.ly/944lKe
bn@santafe.edu

PRIOR Pads:
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul19-Team-Meeting
Michael McGehee - Bo Varga

http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul15-Team-Meeting
Margot Gerritsen - Eric Wesoff

http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul12-Team-Meeting
Mark Jacobson

Technologies from July 12:
Rooftop PV
Wind turbine - something new there
Super capacitors
Compressed air - two really good presentations CAES
Concentrated solar power 
Osmotic power

K: Exponential curve relating to meme. More difficult to show.
Every energy person has one technology they irrationally love / hate.

2:48 Tim Williams: Stirling engine
Basis of what I'm talking about is an engine inspired by the grand challenge of transportation fuel.
That 80% of energy that is rejected heat out of that internal compustion engine.

Use that heat to apply to rearrangement of the stirling engine - invented before the steam engine.
Fixed volume of gas. Volume is alternatively heated and cooled.
Arrange the gases with a piston (traditionally).
One piston moves gas out of heating into cooling.
Another moves from cooling to heating zone.
Expand ...
Got this down to a very simple structure.
3 tubes - achieved by bending metal.
Or taking straight metal and welding it in the right places.
Traditional engine has a problem with a seal.
With my design, all the connections are just welded.
A flew through which exhaust gases flow.
Each has a baffle - against either the cool side or heated side.
Osscillate between.
Linear ossicilator. Magnetic piston - will generate electricity, the other will reverse.
Alternator is well established technology.
With this arrangement ... anyway, people wanted to talk about it.
I'm ready to describe where we are on it.
Take what I have and make a prototype. Establish a company around this - that would be great.
Application, design you would focus. Modify to any particular application.
As a heat engine, any source of heat will drive it:
the sun
steam
heat from your internal combustion engine

I was thinking in the fuel situation - big semi-trailers- use exhaust stacks that go up the sides of the cab. Use the air cooling to provide the cool part of it.
The electricity, no batteries, feed into the motor - either around one of the prop shafts of the differentials or one of the drive shafts.
Very easy exploit that energy.
Perhaps save half their transportation fuel.
Opportunity is there for people who want to work in this area. Work it out.

Q: Why not done before?

Stirling engines are good in not very dynamic energy situations. From 0 to 100% power, they don't work well.
All designs so far have involved pistons/crankshafts - and achieving a seal around that has been problematic.
My design gets around that.
Temperature differential - with cynlindrical design needs to be very high.
My design resolves those obstacles.

People have proposed using stirling engines as secondary engines.
They have always been that piston design.
You could make this a sheet - 1 inch think under the whole bottom of the vehicle.
Huge exchange surface.
As soon as you go to a cylindrical system, starts not fitting into places where you want to use it.

Q: Compare to Dean Kamen's?

Don't know exactly his design.
All the other stirling engines use cylindrical approach.
Mine is a totally linear design.

Bryce: Could it run on solid wastes? Does it run at a high enough temperature to sustain a fire?

Anything that burns.

Bryce: What about fly ash?

The engine itself is clean. The heat source might have a fly ash issues.

Bryce: So what is the advantage? Efficiency?

Advantage is using currently waste heat? You could double fuel economy for the vehicle. That in its own right, apart from my wife getting ill, I would have entered this in the XPrize for the 100 mpg vehicle.

: If you had entered it?

Would have used existing engine. Heat output would go into stirling engine.
Unburden main engine of A/C, charging, etc. All that goes away.
I wouldn't look to have batteries.
That's where things get expensive.
I can afford to waste the energy.

You have the opportunity to retrofit any vehicle to make it hybrid.

: Is it feasible?

One you can practically do immediately is the semi-trucks.
For other vehicles, you need a place to put it.

: What about Volt. Engines always just charge battery packs. Still capture heat output.

Approx double the use of the energy you are getting.
Instead of having a liter engine, you could have a 500cc engine.
Very simple.
Can get to it from four plates. Bent metal forms.
Only sophisticated part is the linear alternator.

AVI #1: http://bit.ly/ap3epE

Jonathan Williams
twillia@griffin.uga.edu
770-228-7312
mobile 
3:11 Bela: Great pleasure to have an opportunity like this.
Santa Fe institute.
small non-profit inst in Santa Fe, NM.
Because institute has such a great reputation, all this was done with local high school volunteers.

First results.
More than 100 performance curves.
Will show 61 performance curves.
each based on a decade of data.
Not just information technology.
About technology in general.
See the same regularites.
Universal laws of technological evolution.
From data we have - universal.

You know Moore's Law.
Will talk about First 3 of these 4.
No time for information technology (superexponentials).

Number 1.
Moore's Law can be generalized to other technologies.
Not big news to you - but big news to Intel yesterday - people don't know this.

Moore's Law is special case of more general law, Sahal's Law- published in 1979. Almost unknown work.
Almost unknown.
Data fits.

Good for forecasting.
Those functional forms based on Sahal's law are best for forecasting.

So, let's get started.
Original Moore's Law: CPUs and memory chips.
40 year anniversary slide from Intel.

How can we generalize this.
One way is to look at price.
All kinds of products have a price. See how it changes over time.
for transistors, you can see a graph like this:

Price as a function of time.
Linear on a log plot is exponential progress.

On log scale Y, time on X. 
Price improving exponentially over time.

DRAM. Price coming down exponentially as a function of time.

Hard disk drives? 
Look at price per MBit. Seems pretty exponential.
1988 - 2007.
A straight line.

Photo volatics.
Straight line - then flatter.
Price per watt.
31 year graph.

Antonon? from Brazil.
Outlier point in the middle.

Beer. Dataset from Japan.
Moore's law for beer. 
Retail price minus ...

1970-2000 something
All these exponentials on the same slide:
Transistor
PV
Hard disk drive (steepest)
Ethanol

All straight lines, but slopes are different.
All these exponentials have a brother, the production.
How many units we produce.

The production is growing exponentially as well.
Same time period
- Production growing exponentially
Put these two exponentials together.
Joined by time.
Take out that variable.
Plot the performance as a function of production.

- Wright's power law progress function

On log-log plot, guess what - you see approx straight lines.
Does it mean to see a straight line on a log-log plot?
It is a power function.
The price is function of the production to some power.

Wright - noticed this for airplanes in 1936.
If you plot the cost of an airplane you see a power function.
the learning curve, or experience curve.
BCG - Boston Consulting Group
Way to squeeze your suppliers.
If you know about energy technologies, really picked up now.

Marko: Would you say this power function is the best function to predict?

Not saying it is the best, but this is a pretty good one.

On the next slide, show connection between Wright and Moore.

Here is a paper, 
Devenda Sahal (1979)
A Theory of Progress Functions
IIE Transactions, 11:1, 23-29

The exponential growth of production x(t) = exp(gt)
coupled with exponential progress (Moore) y(t) = exp(-mt)
leads to a power law progress function (Wright)
y(x) = x^-w
where w = m/g

Rediscovery in paper on energy policy. Same explanation that Sahal had 30 years ago.
Now we can test it with the data we have in the database.

We can feed in equations, estimate g m and w.
Is w equal to m / g? Is it supported by data?

we did this test with 61 time series.
If they are equal, Sahal is validated.
If not equal, ...
- [Chart - a straight line of w on Y, m/g on X]
the line in the diagonal is NOT a fitted line. It is a 45 degree line.
Empirical data NEVER lines up like this.
I checked it, double checked it, triple checked it.
ALL 61 one lines fall on this line.

I Googled Sahal. Wanted to tell him that. 
All these technologies, different industries.
What I found was other people looking for Sahal.
Jose: That is what I'm finding now too.
So I found an e-mail address. OK, how can I find Sahal.
E-mail comes back - retired aerospace engineer in India who is brother-in-law.
In America, all kinds of other ways to look for people.
So - here is challenge for you - if you know of his whereabouts. His family is looking for him.
So is his wife.
Nobody knows.
: How many years has he been missing?
Not sure.

1936 Wright. Factors affecting the costs of airplanes. Journal of Aeronautical Sciences (3) 122-128.

Bottom line, only two are compatible.
Moore and Wright.

When you test these forecasting procedures, these are the best ones.
How do you test if your forecast is accurate or not.

Let me give you an example.
Gordon Moore's presentation on YouTube.
Kind of a pathological example.
Ironically, Moore's exponential function doesn't work as well.

Pretend you lived in 1970's or 80's and wanted to forecast what comes.
Only used this data to predict all the rest.
Put a simple projection line, this is where you end up with.
As you see, the error can be quite substantial.
Remember this is a log scale.

Marko: 10 years.

Difference depends on origin. \"Hindcasting\" origin.
And the other is the target year - which year you are trying to forecast.

Let's plot the error as a function of these two things: origin and target.

You get an error mountain.
Target always after origin.
Error grows from sea level - no error.
Reach the snow line at one factor of 10.
Uncolored part of mountain rises above two orders of 10 - a factor of 100 - pretty serious error.

A factor of 2 - green is good. Anything above that is not good.
As I said, Moore's exp progress function does not work so well, but, if you use other functional forms, you can get better results.

This is Goddard's. All green pasture.

- Slide comparing views.
Moore with big snow cap.

Going to finish up quickly.
Just the error mountains for the other datasets.
We analyzed 61 curves.
Now, going to show 10 at a time.

so each row is a data series.
this is beer.
Very predictable.
This is DRAM. Ironically, Moore is struggling again - others not so good either.
Brazilian ethanol.
Whole lot of chemicals, very easy to do that.
Geothermal electricity - might be interested in.
Laser diode.
Now finally we have some yellow, not everything is green.
This is gasoline, pretty similar, no matter how you try to predict it.
Photo voltaics. Was kind of an exception. Moore's did not fit so well, others fit better.
Overall finding, I don't show you.
Built huge statistically model.

Forms that correspond with Sahal did best.

Last one. Green dominates.
Technologies are predictable.
So, here is a summary again, you can generalize Moore's law.
Just a special case of Sahal's law of technological progress.

But, if you believe what I say and the statistical analysis that is my upcoming paper.
Moore's exp progress function and Wright's progress function.

That's all I wanted to say.

Jose: This information is very valuable for the ETIR report.

If we don't have enough data - still a project we are just getting started.

If you know anyone who has data - open access database.

Jose: Solar Photo Voltaic. Different trends.
Burning questions?

Marko: Really like to ask you - can you project to 2010/2015?

Only calculated up to last datapoint.
Not forecasting.

Marko: If you were calculating errors, can you pick the best and forecast?

You can do it. Power law progress function.

Marko: Get data from your website.

Al: More information?
Photo voltaics, which did you cover?

IF you go to the website, you get the curves and where they come from.
pcdv.edu

3:56 Jose: Lauren will give his view of ETIR.
Space team has been working every night.

From Jose:

Project Goals and Objectives

1. Investigate the potential of renewable, clean and cheap energy sources. Which sources can grow exponentially? Which sources can easily be scalable to reach most developing countries?
2. Compare the current energy matrix of different countries, and identify opportunities for new energy sources in the next 10 years.
3. Calculate the carbon footprint of different energy alternatives and their impact on poor but rapidly growing countries.
4. Evaluate carbon-neutral alternatives, and also consider energy systems that might even help to reduce carbon emissions.
5. Identify cheap ways of local production of energy systems for individual homes, including solar and wind alternatives, but considering other possibilities as well.
6. Quantify the required energy storage requirements for single homes and identify different storage systems to provide electricity at all times.
7. Investigate the development of wireless electricity (WiTricity) transmission, new sensors, smart grids, transportation systems, communication networks, AI applications, nanotechnology and robotic systems to increase the efficiency and reduce the costs of the future energy supplies.
8. Research how some residential energy systems can be used to alleviate other problems and necessities like water production, heating and ventilation of homes.
9. Design, build and demonstrate a simple prototype of a chosen energy alternative for a home energy system in a poor developing country.
10. Create a road-map to provide large-scale clean, cheap and renewable energy in every home during the next 10 years.

4:06 JG: Suggested relatively short brainstorming session, then delegation of authoring to a smaller group.

Problems:
1/ Needs. Imbalance.
2/ Storage of energy
3/ Lowering price per watt - too expensive renewables
4/ Access to energy in the developing world
Jose: Nolene wanted to compare electricity bills in 35 countries. I brought 1 from Venezuela.
Ross: I pay one fee that includes utilities.
Emem: To get 14 hours of electricity in a month, I pay $400. If I can get energy for $300, I will get
the same energy.
Jose: Who will get that database?
Emem: My bill is $14. NEPPA bill, but in whole month I get 30 hours of light. Useless. Rubbish.
Juan:
5/ Energy needs in developing world
Houses off the grid
Marko: efficiency?
Juan: I mean they need energy - they are off the grid. 
6/ Al: Limited or restricted access
Intermittancy
Rolling brown outs
7/ Effect of dirty energy
Pollutions
8/ Ill-considered energy policy
(like corn-based ethanol)
9/ Juan: as Emem says: price of energy. Like (3)
Jose: No service more expensive than the one you do not get.
10/ National security. Al: US - specific
11/ San: Inefficiency
Conversions
Use of too much energy
12/ Distribution - unfair, barriers, weather, geographical
13/ Lack of energy literacy (like 8)
Remember Saul Griffith - (not clear about impact of 1 million fold energy use increase)
Alex: We don't know what is the field. Education.
14/ Al: Increase of energy demand due to economic growth

4:22 K invited in.
K: Going back to day 1. ETIR process. If you capture data, in whatever form you want.
Having captured data - put into form other people may actually read.
MLA reference format.
Almost everybody has as a second language.
XML would be way - but don't worry about that.
As you go through coding - why did I do what I did.
Say, \"I tried something and it didn't work.\"
Make an archive.
Use Mozilla scrapbook. Press a button, saves all the tabs.
When I rejected this idea, what made me think I was 
Be able to recreate your searches.
Use 5% or less of your time.
The thoughts behind your thoughts.
Don't worry about the format.
Good to have and keep, give on to future generations of SU students.
You will be alums.
People will be looking to you.
You may be working at the World Bank, or NASA.
An archive of how you came up with this.
Some way they will not have to come up with everything from scratch.
What we are doing is an extraordinarily complex thing.
Go broad before going narrow.

If you have specific question about research.
Find research which is good enough, but not more.
You can be exhaustive, but that is expensive.

Al: List problems first. Brainstorming.
Then working on solutions.
Throw into Etherpad. Compare.

K: Makes sense.
Still going broad.
Here are problems. Here are technologies.
Three solutions seem to apply here.
Might find patterns different from looking one thing at a time.

Al: What do you suggest?

K: Are people comfortable in working at this level of detail?
Large dataset you are rotating.
People looking what solutions apply.
Don't want to prejudge- depends on strengths of people.
Who has done work like this before.
Given a 4 hour period.
Do this for about 20 problems.
2 to each person.
People who volunteer.
Others fill in the details.
Think it is a question of your individual strengths in this area.
Some brainstorm outward.
This is very very wide. Too much information.
For problem 1 - this belongs in an appendix.
Almost like extreme coding - you are doing extreme brainstorming.

Jose: K is a powerhouse of knowledge.
Checked and cross checked Ray's books.
Reading John's Etherpad.
Reading session - not much about bibliography.
Now, 3 bibliography.
She knows it all.
Degree in Env Systems.
Not critical for Friday.

K: One of those things, I can go OCD - perfectionist.
If I was independently wealthy with all the time in the world, ...
Have just enough.

Dr. Lee has been working on this for 20 years. Critiquing you.
If you have read Dr. Lee's materials, you will know what hasn't worked in the past.
Bibliography is just ensuring ...
what are the exp components
what are linear
what might switch.
What could break from the past.

Al: This comes after defining the problem.
Juan: Want to be clear about what you are proposing.
On each line, a footnote.
In this footnote, go to a report with data on prices.

K: Could be data, a discussion you have had.
Report you are doing is internal to SU.
You said this. Jose said that. 
Put that in there so you can go in and look at that,
but not distracting from getting the ideas down.

Jose: 5:30, not 5:31.
We will be together for 3 hours.

Has to be on time.
We will review the 5 ETIR.
K: Get ideas down. Each individual person is getting enough down, but don't have to go all out.
I'm biased. I spend a lot of time in the end notes.
The complete process includes the document, the end notes and how you did what you did.
A policy change - put in the notes \"we had a discussion: in some countries, the problem is not the technology but that the incumbent phone companies will not let anyone do this. Biotech: some people don't like this. You need that note. When you bring in Policy, Law and Ethics, you've never lost anything you have looked at it.\"
Read Getting Things Done methodology.
We get worried when we are losing information.
Write it down, then you don't have to worry about it.
Put everything into the footnote.

Al: Emem, Hind and Mercy seem very passionate. In Nigeria, Sudan ...
Would emphasize, talking about energy in Nigeria.
Would target community there - what they need, what they tried, what worked, come with new way.

Jose: Nigeria has 130 m people.
Last year, thought about starting in Brazil.
Open to discussion by team.
Would vote for you Emem.

K: If everybody has some time to capture what is a case history.
A really useful thing to have.
Later on, if only components. Lessons learned may still be applicable to other places.
By having it written down you have something to go back and look at.
Acknowledge it.
Becomes a record. A helpful thing.
Something someone in the executive program could look at.
If you are in Energy, do you want to look at this section.
Talk to our local expert.

Jose: Thank you for your advice. She will be reading what John is writing now.

K: If there are questions, that's what I am here to do.

4:40 Jose: Thank you. [applause]
Just one more point.
Three sectors:
Generation
Transmission (larger lines)/Distribution (smaller lines)
Storage
Distribution only at CISCO.
Those three ways are more or less standard.

Gary: When we did why/what?
Why - climate change, business opportunity. Everything relies on energy.
Education
Upcycling
Everyone has a right to it
Improve quality of life
Drives innovation
Some applications will need energy tomorrow
Substitutes
I think that we covered pretty much.

Juan: If you have energy, you have everything else.
Hind: Can we order them? Which the most critical?

Gary: Group them?
Fabio: Group into Gen / Transmit / Storage
Mercy at board: 1 2 3 or A (for all).
Emem: 
Gary: Grids are a big constraint.
Fabio: Don't have a grid for renewable energy.
Jose: Centralized. But switching from centralized to decentralized.
Emem: Comes down to storage. In someone's house.
Mercy: All of it?
Gary: Put something, move on.
Jose: What Emem was saying about Nigeria - breakfast with Larry Page. If he hears about Africa, he'll be with us forever.
Emem: Jose, you lived in Nigeria.
Jose: Yes for 6 months.
Emem: And you knew about this problem?
Jose: Yes.
[continued review, point by point on board, assigning to Generation / Transmission / Storage]

Gary: If you have intermittancy - you have the wired net 
Juan: What is the problem in Nigeria?
Emem: No rail system that functions. Can't get walking road network. How can you get power grid?
[ See Three Cups of Tea, book ]
We have oil, for God's sake.
Other countries have energy 24 hours.
In our country, we cannot fix transmission.
Gary: I'm talking about what is in brackets.
Juan: Sometimes too many people use at the same time, boom.
Emem: Electricity coming to your house is not good.
San: Capacity is too low.
Mercy: Energy is mostly hydro generated. When it rains, we have energy. When it does not, we don't.

Gary: You can't store it?

Juan: Why in Nigeria so expensive when you have oil?
Emem: Buy a diesel generator - from US or China. Costs $14K. Not as expensive in US.
Can last 3-5 years. Now have to maintain it.
Cost about $400. All in $700 per month.

Marko: $700 includes equipment. 
Emem: Just the diesel is $400 / month.
San: Reference to share with us?
Emem: Try to see if I can get anything on the web. Google. Shows on-line. How much sell.
San: Present on all the problems.
Fabio: tells us something interesting. Go to home generation solution - so that's a way.
Juan: we need to do it clean.
Marko: How many as % have diesel?
Emem: Depends on how much you want.
$20 K
or TV to be powered for $150.
Marko: How many?
Emem: at 1 kW - 3 million have them - estimate.
Marko: About 3% of population.
Mercy: 2% 
There are 150 million people.
Emem: Chad, West African region.
Nigerian poplulation can afford the solution.
If comes in at $10K, you will be beating customers back.
Marko: So solar panels can do this.
Emem: Don't live in their houses, the are in apartments.
Marko: Something you can roll up.
Emem: those will go very fast. The way the generators work.
San: Already the solution - cheaper power source. Why don't you use it?
Mercy: Policy. Better to use oil.
Emem: No body can generate power other than national power authority.

NIgeria Info: Availability and reliability of electricity supplies have always been vexed issue in Nigeria. With an estimated population of 130 million people in AD 2005, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and belongs to the group of countries with the lowest electricity consumption per capita in the continent. Nigeria is also ranked among the poorest countries in the world. This paper examines the likely trend in the demand for electricity over the next 25 years under the assumptions that (i) there is a rapid economic development such that Nigeria transforms from low- to middle-income economy during this period, (ii) Nigeria meets the millennium development goals (MDG) in AD 2015, and (iii) the country achieves the status of an industrializing nation. For these to happen, this paper projects that electric-power generation will have to rise from the current capacity of 6500 MW to over 160 GW in AD 2030. This level of supply will be significant enough to increase the per capita electricity consumption to about 5000 kWh per capita by the year 2030. Even then, this just compares with the AD 2003 per capital consumption of some industrializing countries. Analysis of the level of investment required to meet the projected power demand indicates that annual investment cost will rise from US$3.8 billion in AD 2006 to a peak of US$21 billion in AD 2028. The total investment stream over the 25 year period comes to US$262 billion or roughly US$10 billion per annum.

Emem: By the time you get it into the country, 
Jubai won't let you.

Fabio: What percent have generators? 
Emem: 2% at least. Talking about generators that can provide your power need.
Whole country is market for kerosene lamps.
People who have the financial power to buy their needs.

San: If they import individuals, is that illegal.
Gary: Cost to get 3KW installation?
Emem: Too big. 1kW is OK.
If everybody wants to scale, you buy 3.

Marko: If I am a Nigerian person, can I buy a solar panel.
Emem: If you don't have someone in US, put in a car and ship the car.
If as a solar panel, put in port. $25,000 will become $50,000 with taxes.
That is a policy problem.
Always ways around it.
Gary: Sort of forbidden.
Emem: Thought is, If they stop people, it will start to get the power authority to work.

Marko: Can you ship in 4 different parts, say it is material. Not taxed.
Emem: If assembled, not taxed.
Jose: We have to do this. Begin working on the Google documents tonight.
Ross and I have to leave for faculty meeting.
We have Tim Williams. 
Tonight work on Google docs.
What are the priorities - Gary?
Gary: Not best moment.
JG: Can we split up.
Jose: Not so much a speech as to ask.
Build a prototype.
Tim: To make a model, assuming you have a workshop. A few hundred dollars.
Jose: Very cheap.
Fabio: not including ...
Tim: Simulate.
Gary: Split for 15 min.

Juan: Focus on home energy generation. Will machine help houses all around the world?
Tim: Just a heat engine- 
reflect sun on it
Use it as your chimney.
Reflect sun on outside, reverse direction of heat.
Juan: Following your calculations, TV computer lights?
Tim: That is just a design specification.
You can design and determine what you'd need to support it.

Jose: Important point.
Building this.
Like biofuels. Are they useful?
This intermediate step when you can go directly into electricity.

Marko: Biofuels are from light. PV, get electricity right away.
Mercy: Also need transportation. 
Jose: Need batteries.
An airplane needs liquid fuel - for different applications.
So one part of team goes: John, Gary, Fabio

5:04 Gary. With Tim Williams.
Build prototype.
Try to solve problems in cheaper, more efficient way.
Mechanical issues -
point Marko was raising - go through many processes, not worth to do it.
If hot smoke or sun, get hot air temp.
Tim: Then get electricity from that.
Gary: Then output of that is mechanical power.
Fabio: Dynamo 
Tim: With this you could pump water, lots of things.
Lot of options.
In car transport, you'd make it electrical
Fabio: What is source of heat in Africa - sun ... we don't have sunlight 24 hours a day.
Hydro pump is an idea.
Gary: Many ideas.
Nigeria. Do prototype that is fancy - something you can ship in massive way.
Efficient measures. Ship like a lego. Like IKEA is shipping products. In pieces. Easy to assemble.
Very low cost to ship. Easy to assemble.
For houses, that need warmth at night, have a fire. Get the smoke of that 12 hours per day. Then sun, 12 hours per day. Also apply to car industry. Many stuff.
Get one step further from this.
Fabio: will need a prototype.
Tim: Simplest: square box. Let me draw on this.
You know those electrical skillets. You can set the temperature. Use that as your start point.
That is here, with a plug in it.
Weld the box at that point.
Then come on the top.
Insert the baffle, like a plunger, up and down. Not rock.
Gary: That has to be flexible?
Tim: No, this part is like a plunger.

Then you put a lid over it.
What this is, a steel rod that you can put a magnet on the end. Pull it and drop it with a magnet on the top.
When you pull it up, you close this surface and the gas is heated. When you drop it, the gas goes to the other phase.
Measure the pressure on that. Pressure by the volume will tell how much energy you are generating.

On the top you have a magnet.
If this is steel it will go backwards and forwards.
Rest can be Aluminium.
Get it to move with a magnet outside.
If in this position, then this is manufactured with 

Clay spun into wool
KAOwool
Provides an insulation against side that is resting.
To ensure we are maximizing our cooler, 
Put a reservior of water there.
In a vehicle, you'd have the wind blowing.
Ensure that is cold.
Come out here to a pressure ...
see what pressures you are getting.
Take it, put two of them, with the piston in the middle.
Demonstrating that this works.
Crude, but would demonstrate the power that you are going to get.
PSI trans volume translates to the power available.

Fabio: I'm sure this works. Concerned about the source of heat.

Tim: This is a prototype.
If you are integrating a particular source of heat
This is a technical proof ofconcept. Vary the temperature. See the consequence.
Either put it to operate against a springloaded piston.
Normally closed, when you move it up, heat the gas.

Gary: Doing this, going to be able to evaluate the amount of energy.
Tim: Power that you generate is determined by 3 things.
How often you transfer between phases.
Second is size.
In all these systems, pressurized gas. Helium or low atomic weight gases. Will also work with Nitrogen, or whatever.
Third thing is delta T across those things.
If this is set at 70C. And this is 350C or 400C - toward the top of what Aluminum can do.
More diffential is better.
Efficiency is determined by ability of each cycle to move heat.
If low temperature, need to compensate by having large area.
According to temp differential, less pressure, must spread out over bigger area.

Gary: Concern is little amount of time. Not sure by building that, will be able to matrix the other one.
What we need is to know the results of that to see if we could scale.

Tim: Alright. I work with SolidWorks.
Fabio: See if we can open that on Autodesk.
Tim: I can send you the second one.
Fabio: Great.
Tim: If you made the first one, you'd bend it with rollers.
The seond version is completely sheet based.
Spacer to hold them apart.
Fabio: What is it?
Tim: Piece, bent on corners, you weld the joints.
The automation part is exceptionaly easy. your welding beads - you could produce km per day of this shape.
Jut a bent form.
On the end caps, put your pivots.
The production of this is incredibly easy.
Nice way to deal with it.

Mechanical energy take off to whatever you want.

Gary: Have you calculated? 

Tim: Part I don't have is linear alternator.
NASA has research on a linear alternator.
So reciprocating action takes magnets past the coils.
Fabio: Not a hard thing to do.
Tim: Very very simple.
NASA has them and uses them on deep space flights. They might just provide one.

Then you have to bring out a tube to work on each side of the linear alternator.
Just bent metal filled with KAOwool. Same function as a piston. Just moves backwards and forewards.

Skype ID for Tim Williams: tim.peanut

My project works in 10 countries.
Brazil - Minas Gerais. 5 hours from Rio.
Fabio: I'm from Sao Paulo.
Giana.
Haiti.
Sengal
Bukano Faso
Ghana
Uganda 
Kenya
I travel - last year I did 5/6 internatioal trips - usually 10 day trip.
Go on a Friday, spend a week. Come back.

Fabio: If did not understand the stirling engine, this might help you http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_engine

JG: Suggest a first draft be prepared.
Marko: I will inspect tomorrow. I can work while he is talking.
Gary: So you are on second team.
JG: I get up early - I'll be on team 2.
Juan: Mercy/Hind/Emem/Alex are team 1 - deadline Tuesday
Gary: John/Marko/Al/San - deadline Wednesday
Team 3: Fabio/Juan/Gary - deadline Thursday
Work together on Friday.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul19-Team-Meeting
"19 July 2010
MONDAY

Michael McGehee 
At lunch, 7.9% best efficiency from organic PV.
A new research area.

Four part series - Stanford Energy Seminar
http://energyseminar.stanford.edu/event-archive

Not aware of even ONE bit of knowledge invented in China.

Cadmium Telluride in a solar cell is OK.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cadmium
Cadminum in a river is unacceptable.

Nanosolar advisor for 8 years.
Are selling product.
Can manufacture now - but product is not competitive.
Can still sell it - demand exceeded supply.

Spain cut tarrif.
Natural gas price matters, oil not so much.

Not exponential.
Innovation in energy - will not improve lives at all.
But, if we don't use it, our lives will get worse.

All these amazing things you can do with computers, 
no one could have imagined it 15 years ago.
As community of engineers, not sure we will have as much fun as we have had.

Developing world prediction:
People here will be extraordinarily wealthy.
But people who work on solar are particularly generous.
Not very materialistic, almost certainly will buy on product.
Seeing that at Sun Power.
Wouldn't surprise me if that happened more and more.

Jose: Can I pin you. Official community member.
Along with SU pin and my card.

We have 5 people from Spain.

Brad Blair
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Platinum_group
Hard part is knowing what to look for.
Inductively coupled spectroscopy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inductively_coupled_plasma_atomic_emission_spectroscopy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tellurium

RECYCLING OF CdTe PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES: RECOVERY OF CADMIUM AND TELLURIUM
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.clca.columbia.edu/papers/5BV.3.54_Dresden_Recycling.pdf

Brad:
Protection from solar flare - makes miners on the moon in any case
Halley's Comet is 40 kg wide object - has more oil in it than we have on Earth.
Most elegant idea for comment
www.neofuel.com
http://www.neofuel.com/
No way to cool in space without a liquid. Only radiative heat.
His idea was to use the comet core for that.
Refine the ice. Make it a homestead.

Talk to Javier.

2:30 pm - 3:45 pm: 
Michael McGehee 
on solar panels
Title:Associate Professor
Department(s):Materials Science and Engineering
Affiliation(s):Director, Center for Advanced Molecular Photovoltaics
Location:
McCullough Building, Rm. 215
476 Lomita Mall 
Stanford, CA 94305
Mail Code:2205
Phone:650.736.0307
Fax:650.723.3044
E-mail: mmcgehee@stanford.edu
URL: http://www.stanford.edu/group/mcgehee
McGehee's research group studies organic semiconductors, nanostructures and solar cells. 
Administrator: Elies McKone 
https://soe.stanford.edu/research/layout.php?sunetid=mmcgehee

3:45 pm - 5:00 pm: 
Bo Varga
bvarga@USnano.biz
on storage and batteries 
http://www.usnano.biz/ourteam1.htm
Slides: http://bit.ly/baM1cl

The NanoSIG is a nanotechnology business networking organization that staged over 60 conferences, forums, and seminars focused mainly on the business of nanotechnology from 2001 through 2004. 

Forums were focused on the intersection of nanotechnology with biotechnology, education, electronics, investing, and materials science and were staged in Silicon Valley, Washington DC, and San Diego. 

Bo Varga now works with North American nano and clean energy start-up and early stage companies and projects and can be reached via bvarga@USnano.biz see www.usnano.biz for more details. 
http://www.usnano.biz/nanosig.htm

http://www.theoildrum.com/

30% of energy used in CA is used on water.
17% of all water is used by power generation business.
Water is oil. Coming from the Sierras.
All of our food is oil. We are eating oil, drinking oil

There is a ratio: 1000 gallons of water for each gallon of coke.

Third world is exporting water to first world in terms of food, cotton etc

1000 kg of water in the beef exported to the US.

If you are going to do storage economically, you are going to have to have large scale manufacturing facilities.
Tesla used 1600 1650's - batteries you have in your laptop.

Power
If serious about energy storage -
leverage something the car industry or other large mfg base
single household affordability.
OR get from Gates.
Solar cookers. Parabolic type device. Catch the sunlight.

Forward osmosis - ionic imbalance. Fresh water pulled through.
Couple companies have pilot plants.

So much solar energy - very inefficient to use evaporation. Every greenhouse does it.
Many different things, issue is 
1/ can you do away with moving parts
2/ affordability - really crucial
3/ field life - 10 or 20 years? Lubrications. Minimize maintenance.

Look at new project/technology once a week.
Engage every month or so.
Know a little about everything.
Need to dig in to subject - for large investment fund, concentrating 2 to 11,000 suns.
Cheap to make mirrors.
Expensive to make high efficiency solar cells.

2:37 Jose
Bo - from Hungary.
Franceso from Italy.

5:00 pm - 5:30 pm: Eric Dahlstrom and Lauren Fletcher on ETIR (Team Project Time)

Jose: Michael McGehee
Getting money from KAIST

\"Kaust\" N of Jeddah.

Mike: Nice to be here with audience from so many different countries.
45 min talk with no questions.
75 to 90 with.
Talk about solar cells themselves.
Not the policy or economics.
How the cells work and what will make them better.

On first slide - goals
- To provide power - about 10 T W of solar
If we are to do this,
must grow at 35% per year
2 years ago grew by 85%.
To stay on that trajectory out to 2030, 
we must not run out of raw materials. Some concern there.

Really important to make enough money in 2 years to be able to double the factory size.
So, right now, you build with investment - borrow money.
At really large scale, can't borrow several B $.
Need to be able to build factories at very low cost.
Another related to that - if not enough energy paybackto use the energy to build the factory - then carbon 
Energy payback time is less than a year now.
So, I really like this slide
- The grid parity cost depends on location
When will cost from solar cells be less than coal fired power plant?

Amount of sun varies a lot.
Depends on the cost.

In Italy, where electricity is expensive and there is lots of sun,
grid parity has been achieved.
These are countour lines.
$8 - cost per watt.

Q: All in cost.
Maintenance is negligible.
Installation is not.

Q: 0.8 $ per watt.
We are already at that level for the module. Installation adds more cost.

How cells work.
p-n junction.
p - lots of holes.
n - negatively charged.
When you bring these materials together, these materials diffuse across, just like perfume across a room.

When you have imbalance, you have an electric field.

When light comes in, you can excite and separate the positive and negative charge.

That is the essence.
What sets the effiency limit?
Only aborb light if the energy exceeds the band gap.
Want to have a small gap 
but not that simple. Thermalization - you just generate heat in the semiconductor.
Efficiency as function of band gap:
1.4 eV is ideal.

Here you see materials: GaAs is just about perfect.

Q: What stops cells from being more efficient?
Q: Heard 42% effic?
We'll get to that.

You can use multiple solar cells and stack them.
[Al nods]
Hit high gap first, absorb
Reduce the amount of energy you use.
If you put baatteries in series.

This is how you get high efficiency. But outrageously expensive.
50,000 dollars per metre squared

You are going to have these slides to study later.

Efficiency
No change in world record in 12 years.

Thin film technique at 12%

Organic - only 7%, but expect to be up to higher range in a few years.

- Factors
Efficiency
Cost

Throughput of equipement 

You could imagine a scenario where in the desert you would use a tech.

- Mulitstalline siclion
Quite large
Efficiency at 15-18% - $500/m^2.

You need an inverter for most applications - most people want AC.

Q: Decentralized power could be DC?
Yes.

Not my area of expertise though.

Installed, $7.50/kW/h.
Over 30 years - factoring in interest payments - about half the cost.
0.28 cents per watt.

Avg grid cost - 0.13 
********************************
NIGERIA Diesel Generator
a diesel run gen can use 20 litres for 5 hours to deliver 5Kw/hr so this is 4 litres or a gallon for 1 hr of 5kw/hr what is the price of diesel here? $3.00 per gallon, so 5kw/hr = $3, therefor 1Kw = 60 cents, this is JUST diesel. Note the pice of the generator is not includ. Good generator is approx $10K and lasts for 3-5 years.

Already makes sense to get part of power from solar cell.
And these are old numbers.

- compare system on roof of department store with utliity system out in desert.
That is economic decision.

Module after module after module - and costs comes down.

Marko: Like to know where in 3 years.

Bo: $5.50 in Toyko - 100kW system
I've got Deutsche Bank.

- SunPower's Backside Contact Cell

Coolest technologies.
Second best cell - multijunction is the best.
We're proud this came from Stanford, Dick Swanson.
Really neat - both electrodes are on the back side.
Diffuse down, get split at bottom.

Esthetics are very important.
People in Silicon Valley - want to buy cells regardless of cost, so long as it looks good.

Solar cells a few years old look kind of ugly.

Another nice thing, make metal thick.
Can mfg 21% - not one time with a little cell.
Make 6 by 6 inch cells. World record is at 24.
Pay an extra dollar per watt.
Expensive to do all this patterning - photolithography.
You pay more for the module, but then get savings on installation side.

Most prefer technology from Sun Power.

Q: Static.
Cost of tracking is not worth it for the amount of extra power.
For multi-junction, very different story.

- Inorganic Thin Film
Semiconductor is much less.
It can be flexible.
Here is an example of amorphous ...

- CdTe
band gap 1.4 eV - nearly perfect.
Hard to n-type so, CdS

Second pass through solar cell.

Q: Diffraction grating?
Yes. And you can make cells thinner.

Gap between record 16.% efficiency and industry at 11%.
Gap in substrate is very small.
Cells last for 20 years.

- CdTe
One company - First Solar - now doing more than all others.
Costs - 
2009 90 cents / W
2010 81 cents / W 
Ramping up as fast as they can.
Can sell it for a whole lot more - people willing to pay a lot more than cost.
Building factories as fast as they can

- Toxicity of Cd
First Solar will recycle the panels.

Q: Lower the cost - 
What if built to last only 5 years.
Better to wait 5 years to get new technology?

Economics - not right strategy. So much of cost is in glass, packaging, getting someone to put it up on the roof.

If lifetime would have been only 5 years, efficiency would have been 

Marko: So installation is more of cost
Bo: 30% is installation
Mike: Glass will be hard to cut down.
Not going to see a dime per watt. Will level out at 30-40 cents per watt range.

Emem: If I want 1000 kW for $1000 ...
Mike: Depends a lot on scale, installation could range from $1 / W to $6 / W.
Seeing innovation there as well.
Some of the stuff - if you get everyone to install solar at the same time, average cost is lower than doing them one at a time.
Standardizing the stuff.
Gigantic modules - use crane to install them. 
Fewer connections.

People who have thought you could not lower installation.
both coming down, by factor of 40.
If solar cells in shingles, no extra cost to put on roof.

In the developing world, installation is dramatically less.
Truly - no installation cost - people put them out in the day. During the day, they point them at the sun. Not mounted to roof of a building. I've been to Nepal.

- Is there enough Te?
Look at success of First Solar - tempting to tell all solar cell researchers to go find another job.
Not sure. My not have enought Te.
6 g / m^2
16 W / g or Te. USGS tells we have 47,000 tons. Assume we use all of it, then we could do 0.14 TW average.

Started talk saying we need 5-10 TW. I don't think we can provide 20% of world supply.

VERY complicated. If you tripled cost of Te, USGSwould triple amount available.
Only recover if at economically viable way.
When cost of oil goes up, at $150 / barrel, tar sands suddenly become deliverable.

Dave Egelshom. We have a 30 year supply of eery element. We actually have more than we believe.
May be more out there .. may not be. People who know the answer, won't say.

See Martin Gree \"Estimates of Te and In Prices from Direct mining\"

Mostly in China and Peru.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tellurium#Production
\"Tellurium is produced mainly in the United States, Canada, Peru and Japan.\"

- CIGS
20% efficiency
Investment money was going here.
Three cos:
Nanosolar about $500m
MiaSole, $500m
Solyndra - about $1 bn

Nanoparticles, just printed.
Put it down, fuse, end up with thin flim. 
Not done in vacuum.

- MiaSole - evaluating them for VC - got to see factor on Friday - unbelievable. Mind blowing - stainless go in, modules come out at 90 cents / watt.

CIGS could get held back from shortage of Indium.
Competes with flat panel displays 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indium

- a-Si.
Roll to roll process.
Takes 50 min to deposit 0.3 - means plant is really long.

Applied Materials 
http://www.appliedmaterials.com/

Bigger and bigger modules.
2 meter square.
Big. Much fewer connections. Chipping away at installation cost.
Could probably use with other technologies.

- Organic Semiconductors.
Thin film, but now switching over to using molecules.
100,000 tons used in car paint.
Costs 17 cents / m^2.
Need oil to make this.
Using such a small amount - but if using only a couple grams. No problem.
Nothing in here that is toxic.
Could win if efficiencies could come up.

Konarka - Very light weight and flexible.
http://www.konarka.com/

Marko: For cell phones?
Bo: 100 companies selling chargers.

When printing press used, it is a blur to the eye.

- How cells work. Physics is completely different. Donor, acceptor. 10 nm interpenetration.

Key - don't expose to air. With sunlight, you get photo-oxidation.
All solar cells need to be packaged.

UV filter - high energy - a bit of Titania. Don't lose much cutting UV out.
Car paint is very stable out in the light.

Study, accelerating.
Run tests around the clock. 
Still need to test heating/cooling.

- Notes.

Organic works in cold and heat, but not in concentrators.

- Schematic of Multijunction
$50,000 per square meter - grown layer by layer.
Concentrators.
Typically by about 500x.
Only works for direct light.
If you have diffuse light, it won't proprerly focus.

Big difference 3.7 and 6.4 kWh/day - but only about factor of 2x.
Tracker - adds about 30%.
Concentrator - performance drops in Seattle.

Calc by Steve Eglash
http://cleantech.com/news/people/steve-eglash

Al: Beam splitting approach lower costs further?

What is killing you is having to track.
Will motors last 50 years?

Gary: What prevents cells from capturing more energy?

Go back to single junction cell. 70% we can't harvest.

You get recombination,
resistivity in electrodes.

JG: What about really dumb technology - lots of mirrors pointing to a boiler?

This is Silicon Valley.

Could cover part of roof with PV and part with solar water heater.

Jose: We have about $4K for project.
Mike: Best tech is First Solar - almost without a doubt.
If most people approach, they say, \"sold out.\"
If you ask, you might get a couple of panels.

Jose: Do you have solar panels in your home?
Mike: No. I have a convoluted roof and spend my time in the lab.
In Palo Alto, you can pay a bit more and they give you green electricity.
So that's what I do?

Al: Didn't talk about thermo-voltaics?
http://www.leonardo-energy.org/thermovoltaics-electricity-heat
Mike: Do you mean by Stirling engine.
Al: A technology ...
Mike: Don't know what you mean. I have seen sketches in a book but am not in a position to comment on them.

Emem: You talked about Organic solar cells. How do they work?

Mike: 
- Polymer-Fullerene Bulk Heterojunction Cells
Not expensive at all to go multi-junction with organics.
We are not going to get 42%. These are lower quality materials.
We can do $30 per meter squared.

Q: Indium, Fullerenes from other industry?

Could recover Indium from flat panel displays.
Bo: They take waste stream. 6 9 and 4 9 - 
A lot ends up on the walls of the deposition system.

Al: In organic based, arrange to have energy band gap, have 3-4 cells.

Advantage - millions of molecules you can make, get any band gap you want.

Al: 3-4 cells in same system.

Maybe what I just said was too simplistic. We don't get things back in week.
Need 1.2 eV band gap. We have it, but lose other properties.

3:59 Jose: Move from energy to storage [applause]

Bo Varga
Slides: http://bit.ly/bRNlFz

4:09 Jose: Bo has all the answers. Different types of storage.

Bo: Asked for one week to give this presentation.
First presentation on new computer.
Batteries for last 4 years.
Very client driven - commercialization of technology
3 energy related now:
State in Mexico
Li-ion cathode
Micro-inverters
DC - high voltage is very expensive.

If you can do standard AC wiring -- much cheaper.
Has to be affordable.

Client driven. 
Technology only relevant if it solves an important problem.
More for less.
Less heat.

Focused on mfg. All storage has to do with mfg. This is not the world of web 3.0.
What you don't see
Wind appears 4-5x more. 20% of capex. 
5% for solar.

Now a bunch of wind plants that are down a lot of the time.

Started drilling for oil - hit gusher.
Invest BTUs - used to get a lot more BTUs back.

Capex - unit cost at scale. 
On material input side - optimistic, substitution, over time you can do more with less.
Tailings are loaded with value.

Quality - 2 areas to build business. Go either for low cost OR high quality. Not both.

Battery technologies.
18650 - standard battery is $1.25 each.

- LIB cell demand
Close to 2 billion batteries mfg in 2010.

Power - how much can I get
Energy - how long can I get it for

Other storage:
Firewood
Compressed Air - stationary storage. Issue is to have really good underground, salt mines. Much more developed in Europe.
Compressed Nat Gas - almost all buses going into service

Very familiar with study of pumped. Biggest being built in China - couple $ billion.
Altair / Nano 
- Energy Storage Comparisons

Ola: Li Air. 

Will come at very end. Bottom line: on a weight and volume basis - use Li as annode, more power and energy than gas or diesel.
Problem: highly explosive if it gets any water on it.

Please feel free to follow up with me.

400-500 m 18650's mfg per quarter now.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_battery_sizes

Fork lifts still use lead acid for counterweight.

6800 18650's in Tesla.

- Focus on Economics
Applications and technology:

Profit/loss for battery mfg - you've made about 1% per year.
Advanced battery materials is a profitable business.

To have a real impact, need volume,
need to leverage large scale mfg.
Look at very large applications.

VRB - Vanadiam 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vanadium_redox_battery
Replace membrane every 5-10 years.

Now owned by Prudent, a Chinese company, who is rolling it out worldwide.

Build something into a 40 foot container. Just need connections.
Gives 200kW for 4 hours.

- Some comparative costs for grid storage

Have lots of PDFs to share.
$/kW - CAES is the cheapest. A systems approach.

- Energy Storage Applications for the Grid
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_grid
http://www.electricitystorage.org/ESA/home/

Utilities want something they build and have for 50 years.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AES_Corporation

Pumped storage advantage:
Time shifting over weeks or months, rather than minutes or hours.

Lead Acid is still the largest in terms of numbers.
Quite reliable.

- BYD energy storage
Retail price of $500,000.
for 200 kW output

Avg house uses 10 kW/hr.
If people buy $5 m homes.

- BYD Home Storage battery. Basic unit. Li - Fe - Ph
They focused on safety.
Fe is cheaper than Cobalt.

Jose: For export?
Bo: At Intersolar show:
http://www.intersolar.us/index.php?id=intersolar&L=1

Germany decided to keep gas prices high, invest difference in solar.
This year 2x Chinese. and 2x size of last year's booths.
Korean booths this year.

Jose: Had ticket, couldn't go.

- Electrode materials for Li-ion batteries

Li metal in lower right.
Electric car should last much longer due to less shaking.

Dr. Wilkie at IBM Almaden.
Lee Johnson - lead on Gallileo, black inventor

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Alliance_for_Advanced_Transportation_Battery_Cell_Manufacture

Ideal: highest annode, lowest cathode.
Still using graphite annodes.

Silicon nanowire based annodes - could double the capacity.

Aiming for 550 level with new materials - requires new mfg art.

The way batteries mfg today: 
A cylindrical
Long roll. Slurry. Roll up. Crimp. Put electrodes at each end.
Applied Materials - plasma deposition.
Deposit onto separator - can be done very fast and exactly. 
Familiar for ceramics. Or a biofilm resistant.
Toilets with 
Toto
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toto_Ltd.
Ti2 is photocatalytic. If any light at all, rips apart biofilms.

Jose: Buttom to make noise. Cool and heat seat. 3 different pointing mechanism.
Bo: biomonitoring
Real time checks on urine and feces.
Jose: Incredible system.

- Cathode Chemistry in Lishen
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3864/is_200412/ai_n9466805/

Need to let your battery run down on your laptop.
Cramming electrons into a lattice.
If over or undercharged, you reduce the life of the battery.
So life depends on cycle.

Prius. Hybrid - only uses top 20% of battery capacity.
In principle, you can drive it on the battery only - but the battery mgmt system complains.

Li Titanate Annode
http://www.altairnano.com/profiles/investor/fullpage.asp?f=1&BzID=546&to=cp&Nav=0&LangID=1&s=0&ID=10724
You can take your battery down to zero - 
Ola: Deep cycling.
Can use 1000s of times.
voltage good, energy good but capacity is low.

NCM - Nickel Cobalt Magnesium

NCM - Nickel Cobalt Aluminum

Can optimize battery chemistries.

Ola: Developing countries - lots of energy and low cost.
Which for 1 bn households?

Johnson - Li Air.
He says it is 5 years away.
Plans to build a company bigger than
Johnson Labs in Atlanta.
Accelergy spin out.
(or look up super soaker - making money off of children's toys)
Investing in super capacitors.
http://www.johnsonems.com/?q=node/2
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/green-energy/4243793

Ola: Good and ready.

Best you can get.

Ola: For a billion people?

Likely to be using kerosene or diesel.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lonnie_Johnson_(inventor)
http://www.excellatron.com/
Li-Air is projected to deliver up to 10 times the performance of lithium ion and will enable EVs to drive +1000 miles on a single charge! Excellatron Solid State has developed prototypes with +100 cycles. To date it was believed that Li-air was not rechargeable. ESS is currently refining and scaling this paradigm shifting technology. ESS is owned by Dr. Lonnie Johnson the inventor of the Super Soaker.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2x7ThDjfysI

Bo writes for:
http://www.nanotech-now.com/

[trying to get through last 18 slides in remaining time ...]
- Prudent.

Johnson is aiming for $200 / kW hour.

- AEP utility in Texas. Sodium Sulfur batteries.

5:14 [applause]
Intersolar exhibitors by country
http://bit.ly/dqzQph
Australian National Testing Laboratories Australia
Lisec Maschinenbau GmbH Austria
Oekoenergie-Cluster (OEC) Austria
Sun Master Energiesysteme GmbH Austria
Gasokol GmbH The Solar Manufactory Austria
SOLution Solartechnik GmbH Austria
Bekaert Advanced Coatings NV Belgium
enerG Magazine Canada
ATS Automation Tooling Systems Canada
Schneider Electric (Xantrex Technology) Canada
Xiris Automation Inc. Canada
SPARQ Systems Canada
XYG Glass Canada
EnerWorks Innovative Solar Energy Solutions Canada
Jiangsu Sainty International Group Corp., Ltd. China
Jiangsu Sunrain Solar Energy Co., Ltd. China
Allied Advanced Materials Co., Ltd. China
Ningbo BEST Solar Energy Technology Co., Ltd. China
Juli New Energy Co., Ltd China
Polar Photovoltaic Co., Ltd. China
Jiangxi Sinoma New Solar Materials Co., Ltd. China
Tianwei New Energy Holdings Co., Ltd China
Sunflower Renewable Energy Co., Ltd China
Taizhou Hooray Solar Tech Co., LTD. China
China Sunergy (Nanjing) Co.,Ltd. China
Ningxia Yinxing Polycrystalline Silicon Co.,Ltd. China
Sungen International Limited China
CNPV Solar Power SA China
CIEC Overseas Exhibition Co. Ltd. China
Changzhou NESL Solartech Co.,Ltd China
CCPIT Jiangsu Sub-Council China
ZHEJIANG ZG-CELLS CO., LTD. China
CCPIT Jiangsu Sub-Council China
Changzhou Erjin Solar-Energy Equipment Making Co., Ltd China
PowerWay Mounting System China
Jiangsu Micoe Solar Energy Co., Ltd. China
Wuxi High-New Technology Industrial Development Co., Ltd. China
Ningxia Longi Silicon Material Co., Ltd. China
Ningxia Electric Power Group Co., Ltd. China
Zhejiang Jiaming Tianheyuan Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. China
CSG PVTech. Co., Ltd. China
LDK Solar Hi-Tech Co. Ltd China
Wuxi (New Energy) National Science and Technology Commercial Innovation Base China
Wuxi Shangpin Solar Energy Science & Technology Co., Ltd. China
Zhejiang BLD Solar Technology Co., Ltd. China
Westech Solar Technology Wuxi Co., Ltd. China
Anji DaSol Solar Energy Science & Technology Co., Ltd. China
Long Energy (Suzhou Shenglong PV-Tech Co.,Ltd.) China
Zhenjiang Tianlang Luminous Energy&Photoelectricity Co.,Ltd. China
Jingmu International Exhibition Co.,Ltd. China
Jinko Solar Co., Ltd. China
Ningbo Qixin Solar Electrical Appliance Co., Ltd. China
Jiangxi Solar PV Corporation China
Jiangyin Huafang New Energy Hi-Tech Equipment Co., Ltd. China
Jiangyin Jetion Science & Technology Co., Ltd. China
Zhejiang Longbai Photovoltaic Tech Co., Ltd. China
Upsolar Co., Ltd. China
CIEC Overseas Exhibition Co. Ltd. China
Trina Solar Limited China
Beijing Hope Solar Power, Ltd China
GCL-Poly Energy Holding Limited China
Solargiga Energy Holdings Limited China
Nanyang Universal Solar Technology Co., Ltd. China
EGing PV China
GS-Solar Company Ltd. China
Shanghai Areo-Sharp Electric Technologies Co., Ltd China
Zhenrong Technology Co., Ltd. Pingxiang China
Risen Energy Co., Ltd. China
PV Newspaper China
Topray Solar (Europe) GmbH China
Shenzhen Zhong Jing Solar Co., Ltd. China
Borun new energy science & technology co. ltd. China
Shandong Linuo Import & Export Co. Ltd. China
Perlightsolar Co., Ltd. China
Nanyang Green Silicon Co., Ltd. China
Jiangsu Sunlink PV Technology Co., Ltd. China
ET Solar Group China
QS Solar China
KEPT Industry Co., Ltd. China
SVCS Process Innovation s.r.o. Czech Republic
Beneq Finland
R2D Automation France
APOLLON SOLAR France
Vincent Industrie France
Yole D\u00e9veloppement France
SEMI EUROPE Grenoble Office France
Singulus Technologies AG / Stangl Semiconductor Equipment AG Germany
viasys Intelligent Video GmbH Germany
GERMANY-Energy ALTEC Solartechnics Germany
SIBA GmbH & Co. KG Germany
LayTec GmbH Germany
Maschinenbau GEROLD GmbH & Co. KG Germany
GFC AntriebsSysteme GmbH Germany
Siemens AG Energy Sector Germany
pv magazine / Solarpraxis AG Germany
Krinner Schraubfundamente GmbH Germany
Mounting Systems GmbH Germany
AS Solar GmbH Germany
OTTO-CHEMIE - Hermann Otto GmbH Germany
VAU Thermotech GmbH & Co.KG Germany
Fath Solar GmbH Germany
ALD Vacuum Technologies GmbH Germany
Sch\u00e4fer + Peters GmbH Germany
Schunk Kohlenstofftechnik GmbH Germany
G\u00fcnther Spelsberg GmbH + Co. KG Germany
ACI-ecotec GmbH & Co. KG Germany
Galaxy Energy GmbH Germany
Freiburg Wirtschaft Touristik und Messe GmbH & Co. KG Germany
AMB Automation Germany
WATERWAY Engineering GmbH Germany
Germany Trade & Invest (gtai) Germany
OKU Obermaier GmbH Germany
Rena GmbH Germany
Gebr. Schmid GmbH + Co. Germany
Intech GmbH & Co KG Germany
Intersolar Germany
Concentrix Solar GmbH Germany
DAS Environmental Expert GmbH Germany
University of Stuttgart (ITW) Germany
MB Automation GmbH Germany
Dockweiler AG Germany
Still Optics GmbH & Co. KG Germany
SUN & WIND ENERGY/Bielefelder Verlag GmbH & Co.KG Germany
Critical Manufacturing S.A. Germany
Hennecke Systems GmbH Germany
W. Haldenwanger Technische Keramik GmbH & Co.KG Germany
procasi UG Germany
JENOPTIK Automatisierungstechnik GmbH Germany
centrotherm clean solutions Germany
AIS Automation Dresden GmbH Germany
Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology Germany
Deutsche Solar Werke GmbH & Co. KG Germany
Digitron Engineering Services GmbH Germany
SOMONT GmbH Germany
Delta Energy Systems (Germany) Germany
Bosch Solar Energy AG Germany
Jonas & Redmann - The Automation Company Germany
Bayern Innovativ GmbH - Cluster Energietechnik Germany
T\u00dcV InterCert GmbH Germany
GP Solar GmbH Germany
Sun Energy Europe GmbH Germany
Samson AG Mess- und Regeltechnik Germany
Zimmermann & Schilp Handhabungstechnik GmbH Germany
SN Solartechnics GmbH & Co. KG Germany
Bayern International GmbH Germany
twin solar GmbH Germany
Photon Europe GmbH Germany
Roth & Rau AG Germany
Blue Tec GmbH & Co. KG Germany
CleanTech Business Park Berlin c/o Bezirksamt Marzahn-Hellersdorf von Berlin Germany
TSE-Systeme GmbH Germany
Elma GmbH & Co. KG Germany
bw-i Baden-W\u00fcrttemberg International Germany
ZVEI - German Electronical and Electronic Manufacturer's / vbw - Bavarian Business Association Germany
AEG Power Solutions GmbH Germany
Alanod-Solar GmbH & Co. KG Germany
4JET Sales + Service GmbH Germany
KME Germany AG Germany
AEROLINE Tube Systems Baumann GmbH Germany
System Cell Group (H.K.) Limited Hong Kong
M/s. Euro Multivision Ltd. (Euro Photovoltaic) India
Alpex Exports PVT Ltd. India
HHV Solar Technologies Pvt. Ltd. India
INDOSOLAR Limited India
Carborundum Universal Limited India
Jupiter Solar Power Ltd. India
Gujarat Borosil Limited India
ZILMET USA Italy
2BG S.r.l. Italy
Eurotest Laboratori srl Italy
Solar Frontier Japan
Asahi Diamond Industrial Co., LTD Japan
Bridgestone Corporation Japan
S-Energy Co., Ltd. Korea
Symphony Energy Co. Ltd. Korea
Taewon Scientific Co., Ltd. Korea
KSM Corporation Korea
APACK, Inc. Korea
Jaein Industry Technology Korea
SK Brazing Co. Korea
HANKOOK Silicon Co., Ltd. Korea
DY Metal Korea
Seoul Business Agency Korea
INFOVION Inc. Korea
Global Technical System Co., LTD Korea
D-Solartech.Co.,Ltd. Korea
Komocon Co., Ltd Korea
Qualiflow Naratech Co., Ltd. Korea
Umicore Liechtenstein
Umicore Precious Metals Refining Liechtenstein
Umicore Thin Film Products Liechtenstein
Silicon Border Development, S de RL de CV Mexico
KIOTO Clear Energy S.A. de C.V. Mexico
Tempress Systems BV Netherlands
Vetrad BV Netherlands
Santon International bv Netherlands
Recharge Norway
Innotec Automation Pte Ltd Singapore
Iskra MIS, d. d. Slovenia
Onyx Solar Energy Spain
G.A. Solar Spain
ZYTECH SOLAR Spain
JEMA Spain
Suntrack-P4Q Electronics Sl Spain
ADES - Aplicaciones De Energias Sustitutivas S.L. Spain
Solartys, Spanish Association for the Internationalisation and Innovation of Solar Companies Spain
Pevafersa Spain
Mecanicas del Pisuerga, S.A. (Mecapisa) Spain
Titan Tracker S.L. Spain
GreenPowerMonitor Spain
Manufacturas Braux, S.L Spain
Obducat Technologies AB Sweden
GEMOTEC Ltd. Switzerland
Pasan SA Switzerland
SYNOVA SA Switzerland
Meyer Burger Technology Ltd Switzerland
3S Swiss Solar Systems AG Switzerland
Kayex Taiwan
E-Ton Solar Tech Co., ltd. Taiwan
Long Time Electronic Co., Ltd. Taiwan
Millenium Communication Co., Ltd. Taiwan
Sunrise Global Solar Energy Co.,Ltd. Taiwan
Motech Industries, Inc. Taiwan
Earthscan United Kingdom
Arizona Department of Commerce United States
Mecasolar United States
Inspired Solar Technologies, Inc. United States
S-5! United States
Transoptic Solar United States
Ingeteam INC. United States
NY Loves Clean Tech United States
BYD America Corporation United States
Alcatel Vacuum Products, Inc. United States
Cooper Industries, PLC United States
American Electric Technologies, Inc. (AETI) United States
Phoenix Contact United States
Direct Grid Technologies United States
BRYCE Fastener United States
Photon Consulting, LLC United States
Solar Flex Rack United States
Abet Technologies Inc. United States
Cooper B-Line United States
Entegris, Inc. United States
Busch LLC United States
Solar Collector Inc. United States
Plasma Ruggedized Solutions United States
eIQ Energy United States
Solyndra Inc. United States
Evonik Cyro LLC United States
Rudolph Technologies, Inc. United States
Canergy International Inc. United States
Meeco United States
North American Clean Energy United States
Plasmaterials Inc. United States
Yamaichi Electronics USA, Inc. United States
Renewable Energy World Network United States
Carbone of America United States
PLANSEE USA LLC United States
Toyo Tanso United States
Wieland Electric Inc. United States
Cone Drive Operations, Inc. United States
MAGE SOLAR Projects, Inc. United States
Camstar Systems, Inc. United States
Hoehner Research & Consulting USA Corp. (EuPD Research) United States
Solar Depot United States
SunLink Corporation United States
Rennsteig Werkzeuge GmbH United States
GrafTech International Holdings Inc. United States
Canadian Solar Inc. United States
T\u00dcV S\u00dcD America Inc. United States
AlsoEnergy United States
InnoLas, Inc. United States
Heateflex Corporation United States
Silicon Valley Center for International Trade Development (SVCITD) United States
KACO new energy United States
k-Space Associates, Inc. United States
GEDA USA, LLC United States
Belt Technologies Inc. United States
Yingli Green Energy United States
PerkinElmer United States
Zhejiang Sunflower Light Energy Science & Technology LLC United States
Samson Roll Formed Products Company United States
Geosis Corporation United States
Evans Analytical Group United States
Ulvac Technologies, Inc. United States
Ellsworth Adhesives United States
National Semiconductor Corp. United States
Hitachi High Technologies America, Inc. United States
SolFocus, Inc. United States
Diehl Controls North America, Inc. United States
UC Components Inc United States
Patriot Solar Group United States
Santerno Inc. United States
Perlast Ltd. United States
SMC Corporation of America United States
Ercam Solar Tracking Systems, Inc. United States
Hisco United States
Soleras Ltd. United States
TUV Rheinland PTL United States
Saint-Gobain Solar United States
AEE Solar United States
Julabo USA, Inc. United States
Brooks Instrument United States
Daikin America, Inc. United States
Tuthill Vacuum & Blower Systems United States
Epic Resins Corp. United States
Solar Industry Magazine United States
Crest Ultrasonics United States
White Knight Fluid Handling Inc. United States
Nanometrics Incorporated United States
Lumos Solar United States
K-Flex USA L.L.C. United States
ESPEC North America, Inc. United States
Boots On The Roof United States
Airgas, Inc. United States
Oerlikon Leybold Vacuum United States
American Superconductor United States
Avantes Inc. United States
Tigo Energy Inc. United States
Superior Automation United States
TDK-Lambda Americas United States
Veeco Instruments Inc. United States
ADCO Products, Inc. United States
Roll Forming Corporation United States
Newport Corporation United States
SolarPro Magazine United States
Coastal Instruments, Inc. United States
DuPont Microcircuit Materials United States
ixmation COX systems United States
Christopher Associates Inc. United States
Leybold Optics USA Inc. United States
tec5USA, Inc. United States
SolarWorld California United States
COLEXON Corp. United States
ROLLER DIE + FORMING United States
SolarBOS Inc. United States
Ecosolargy, Inc. United States
Traveler`s Choice United States
Team California United States
EcoFasten Solar United States
Heraeus Materials Technology LLC Photovoltaic Business Unit United States
Air Liquide Electronics U.S. LP. United States
PVA TePla United States
Chroma ATE, Inc. United States
DECK Monitoring United States
Intevac, Inc. United States
Renewable Energy World United States
Everbright Solar, Inc. United States
CITEL, Inc. United States
Intevac, Inc. United States
Albiasa Corporation United States
Clenergy International United States
DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions United States
ProtekPark Solar United States
Nova Centrix United States
Solartron Analytical United States
HB Solar of Southern California United States
Fluitecnik Inc. United States
Pumps by Gorman-Rupp Industries United States
Riverside County Economic Development Agency United States
solarserver.com / Heindl Server GmbH United States
Zygo Corporation United States
Morgan AM & T United States
ProTech Materials United States
Ritek USA United States
New Mexico Economic Development Partnership United States
IronRidge United States
American Pre-Fabricated Structures, Inc. United States
Solar Metrology United States
Fire Energy Group United States
Thermo Scientific United States
DUNMORE Corporation United States
EKO Instruments USA Inc. United States
Carmel Chemicals Inc. United States
Intertek United States
Comco Inc. United States
Amphenol Industrial Operation United States
Mersen (formerly Ferraz Shawmut) United States
MDC Vacuum Products, LLC United States
CBC (America) Corp. United States
Moser Baer Photo Voltaic Ltd. United States
Carl Zeiss MicroImaging, Inc. United States
Heraeus Materials Technology LLC Thin Film Materials Division United States
Draker Laboratories United States
Greene, Tweed & Co. United States
Shimadzu Scientific Instruments, Inc. United States
Morgan Technical Ceramics United States
THERMOCOAX United States
Solarzentrum North America, Inc. United States
Poco Graphite United States
SunMaxx Solar United States
Carlo Gavazzi Inc. United States
Vela Solaris United States
SolarTech United States
Solar-Trac by OmegaFlex United States
Greenpower Capital, LLC United States
Comchip Technology Corporation United States
Micro-Vu Corporation United States
TED (The Energy Detective) United States
Technosun Corporation United States
Praxair Electronics United States
centrotherm photovoltaics USA Inc. United States
Edwards United States
Greentech Media, Inc. United States
PROINSO US LLC United States
Optomec United States
REO USA Inc. United States
Nextronex Energy Systems United States
Hollaender Manufacturing Co. United States
COMET AG United States
Gorman-Rupp Industries United States
EFACEC USA United States
Air Products United States
Centrosolar America United States
Magma Design Automation United States
American Roll Form United States
JP Sercel Associates, Inc. United States
Evans Components Inc. United States
Free Hot Water United States
Schletter Inc. United States
Cyber Technologies USA, LLC United States
Sensor Electronics Corporation United States
3S Industries USA United States
Kureha America Inc. United States
VAT United States
Diamond Materials Tech, Inc. United States
ASES American Solar Energy Society United States
RST United States
Specialized Technology Resources (STR) Solar Division United States
Assembly Process Technologies United States
OPDE US LLC United States
Fisnar United States
DuPont Kalrez\u00ae and Vespel\u00ae United States
L&C Group Corp. United States
Solar Ventures USA United States
Advantiv Technologies, Inc. United States
M+W Group United States
Honeywell United States
Kurt J. Lesker Company United States
Kashiyama United States
REC Silicon United States
ScatterMaster, LLC United States
Atonometrics United States
Geolink Technologies LLC United States
OAI United States
SCI Engineered Materials United States
Valentin Software, Inc. United States
Quick Mount PV United States
Stellar Net, Inc. United States
CVD Equipment Corporation United States
Festo Corporation United States
Multi-Contact USA United States
Varian Semiconductor Equipment United States
Oser Communication Group United States
IKO International, Inc. United States
Stego, Inc. United States
KUKA Systems Corporation North America United States
DelSolar United States
ATN Hoelzel LP United States
SunCarrier LLC United States
tesa tape, inc. United States
OE-A (Organic Electronics Associaton) United States
FIBOX Enclosures United States
MET Laboratories, Inc. United States
Matheson Tri-Gas United States
Tyco Electronics United States
Fraunhofer Center for Sustainable Energy Systems United States
Set-Solar Corp. United States
Fluor United States
HUETTINGER Electronic, Inc. United States
AmerCable United States
all4-GP (North America) Inc. United States
Olympus America Inc. United States
Daitron, Inc. United States
Tosoh SMD, Inc. United States
Hydro Aluminum Solar Solutions United States
Zeta Instruments Inc. United States
Linde Gas LLC United States
Applied Energy Technologies United States
Foamtec International WCC United States
Spectral Evolution United States
Alpine Site Services Inc. United States
RBI Solar United States
DEGERenergie GmbH United States
Arguson, an SPX Brand United States
Northern California Solar Energy Association (NorCal Solar) United States
FlexLink Systems, Inc. United States
ICOS Vision Systems United States
Armacell LLC United States
DEHN Inc. (DEHN+Soehne GmbH) United States
GNB Corporation United States
Worthington Energy Systems United States
Asahi Diamond America, Inc. United States
aleo solar North America, Inc. United States
Ignite Solar, LLC United States
Lumeta, Inc. United States
SGS Slicing Solutions United States
Solectria Renewables United States
Arkema Inc. United States
Process Materials Inc. United States
MRL Industries United States
Vikram Solar Inc. United States
Radiant Source Technology, Inc. United States
Gehrlicher Solar America Corp. United States
Arkema Inc. United States
Ontario, Canada United States
Sonnetek United States
REFU Solar Electronics, Inc. United States
OutBack Power Systems United States
Valtech Corporation United States
Underwriters Laboratories United States
Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. United States
PANalytical Inc. United States
Evergreen Engineering United States
Beckhoff Automation United States
AMETEK United States
Wirsol Solar Colorado, Inc. United States
1 SolTech Inc. United States
Unirac, Inc. United States
Baja Construction Co. United States
Amtech Systems Inc. United States
Cuantum Solar America LLC United States
Ocean Optics United States
Pall Corporation United States
Stiebel Eltron, Inc. United States
Balazs NanoAnalysis United States
Gavish, Inc. United States
HVA, LLC United States
Kipp & Zonen United States
Parker Hannifin - Veriflo Division United States
UMA Solar United States
Sanmina-SCI United States
MARELCO Power Systems Inc. United States
Keithley Instruments United States
pv recycling, llc United States
DC Power Systems United States
CSA International United States
EBARA Technologies Incorporated United States
Yankee Environmental Systems United States
PanelClaw, Inc. United States
Ningbo Solar Electric Power Co., Ltd./ Nbsolar USA United States
Beautiful World LLC United States
LumaSense Technologies United States
AMSC American Superconductor United States
Hukseflux USA Inc. United States
GF Piping Systems United States
World Cal, Inc. United States
CourierTronics United States
Solmetric Corporation United States
SierraTherm Production Furnaces, Inc. United States
US Digital United States
MGI Electronics, LLC United States
ASYS Group Americas Inc. United States
Satcon Technology Corporation United States
Custom Rollforming Corp. - Solar Division United States
PV Powered United States
Austrian Trade Commission United States
Solberg Filtration & Separation United States
DB Schenker United States
Semilab United States
Ferro Electronic Materials United States
US Solar Distributing, Inc. United States
Krannich Solar Inc. United States
PV Contractor, Inc. United States
Voltaix, LLC United States
Ferrotec (USA) Corporation United States
Allwin 21 Corp. United States
Reis Robotics USA Inc. United States
Austin Camber of Commerce United States
Indium Corporation United States
Gemu Valves, Inc. United States
P.S.G Wilden Pump United States
Spire Corporation United States
AZZ Galvanizing Services United States
Intevac, Inc. United States
Sefar, Inc. United States
Pacific Gas & Electric Co. United States
Shin-Etsu Silicones United States
Quality Transformer and Electronics United States
Aztec Washer Company United States
FAFCO, Inc. United States
Nanofree Inc. United States
Unistrut Energy Solutions United States
Shoals Technologies Group United States
National Renewable Energy Laboratory United States
Nordson EFD LLC United States
Intevac, Inc. United States
KLA-Tencor United States
Angstrom Sciences, Inc. United States

----

Low mass is key to defense. 
Field operations. Hot/cold, sandstorms, safety - if bullet hits battery you don't want it to blow up.
Trade offs.

Ola: Coming from upcycle team. In 10 years, cause recycle, reuse? Could have globally viable market.

Happening today. Ping me, I'll find conference in FL, March/May. Big automobile battery recycling.
http://www.mpoweruk.com/events.htm

5:21 Jose: Review ETIR. Tues session on ETIR. Define Space well. Finish 2 pages on Friday afternoon.
Bo: Send me an e-mail. Can't guarantee I'll respond on the same day. Will send you a PDF.

5:22 Eric.
First off, just wanted to say we're asking for an outline on Friday. Big part of it is to describe the problem space you've decided to focus on. I knew going into this, the phrases we were using, \"Home Energy\" but it is up to you to decide what problems you are addressing.

One pass through this kind of matrix:
Problem here.
Various exponential technologies over here.
And the exponential technologies, one way to look at them is to look at the different tracks: AI, nano, biotech, materials - they may or may not apply- just ways of generating ideas.

What ETIR does is have different statements of your problem -
low cost systems
different ways of describing what you have been looking at
different scales - large, household, community

Start to identify potential where some of these things
Say, lighting - biolumenescence might apply.
What we are looking for in the outline form - some breaking up of the problem.

List BY NAME things you are pursuing.
By seeing this outline, we can come back and say, offer some suggestions, 
\"Have you considered this area ...\" if you want to.
Section 3 - just a statement of the problem, breaking it up into these different spaces.
Section 4 would be just a list of exponential technologies, not described in any detail.
That's what we are looking for by Friday.

Alex: Range of problems?

Eric: I don't want to constrain you - in the 20 range. Wide variations.
In the full ETIR, you might describe some in details, others just a paragraph.
What that does - shows you have taken problem, refined it enough to make some sense of it.
Looked at all the different opportunities where tech is changing rapidly.
Find where things might be changing faster than people realize now.
Suggest \"someone else can follow this up ...\"

Alex: Can have exp tech, but not applied yet.

Eric: Maybe robots won't help on low cost -- yet.
Maybe no connection there. But maybe a sensor that is very expensive now, within 10 years will be cheap enough that you could build it into a lightbulb. Exp - increasing performance for lower cost - could enable something that people don't think of right now.

Sort of a check mark: you've agreed on scope. And list of areas you are going to address.
Gives us a chance to help you and give feedback.

Jose: How much, in this matrix form? or written form?

Eric: In document:
1 1/2 on problem. Just listed/stated.
Perhaps 8 sentences. Set of lines/ aspect of problem we are looking at.
Maybe the names of 10, 15, 20 things that might be considered, down here. Another couple pages of that.

Not a fixed - you don't have to address every one. Something to start with, to give us an idea of what your thinking is.
Bioluminescent lights. That's all you say. Help you find references on that.
If later, you decide, not that important. That's OK.
In finaly report, might just get a half page write up.

Lauren has ratings, near term, cost effective, exp changing, risks/problems in adopting. Good layers. Main thing for Friday is to get refine problem statement and areas to look at.

Jose: Emem - your question of the day? You bring it today.

Eric: See the value in going through this process?

Jose: Just getting the overview. Define the problem space carefully. Need to begin on this seriously.

Juan: OK. Thank you. [applause]

Jose: One of our faculty died today. Had a heart attack arriving in London.
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/19/the-passing-of-a-climate-warrior/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taps

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul15-Team-Meeting
"Thursday
7/15/2010

8:30 am Breakfast meeting

9:00 am - 10:15 am: Margot Gerritsen, Stanford University (http://pangea.stanford.edu/people/detail.php?personnel_id=180)
Pad: http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul15-Team-Meeting
Slides: http://bit.ly/cR0yP6

10:15 am - 10:30 am: Coffee Break (drink lots of it:-)

10:30 am - 11:45 am: Eric Wesoff, GreenTech Media (http://www.gtmresearch.com/analysts)
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0B3sPlav9xIzoZWY4NmRlNDMtZWQ4MS00MjNlLTk2OGEtZjM4ZWRjZmI3MjNk&hl=en

11:45 am - 12:00 pm: Energy Team Project Time

====
8:40 am At breakfast:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Hayward

We may already have grid parity - depending on capital structure.
Numbers are related to \"disadvantageous\" capital structure.
Not a 60/40 deal, cost drops down.
Latest CSP + tranmission (relatively small cost) is there.
All comes down to financing
Concentrated solar power (CSP) 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concentrating_solar_power

Need government initiative like superhighways.

CA dispatches every 5 minutes. Other states dispatch every hour.
Inefficiencies.
Regulatory obstatcles.
Mostly a policy challenge.

Jose: What do you focus on?

One heavy teaching quarter.
75% is oil/gas research.
Jose: I'm a oil/gas person, but moving into renewables.

Me too.
Now large scale solar.
Optimization of placement, mitigation.

Jose: Spanish solar company connection.

Good people locally. Brightsource. VP would be fantastic speaker.
Really really good view of that.

Jose: For team, smaller scale.

Lots of options
First Solar
Nanosolar

Jose: Polaris Ventures, funding solar ventures.
10 years ago, no VC money in energy

Very few are courageous. Very risk averse investing. Follow Vinod Khosla.
Last couple years, been disappointed.
When Vinod and KP moved to biofuels ...
I said, This is a dead end.

Jose: Hype of H.

Now sequestration.

Jose: Good that you mention that. Not many have caught up with that.

I'd invest in non-convential oil.

Jose: But not in BP. I visited, they have H filling station. I was surprised.

May have a H highway in CA.

Jose: SU = Sleepless University.

That is normal. When I was a grad student at Stanford, I had many sleepless nights.

Jose: Several Stanford. Steven Schneider. Mark Jacobsen. 
Tony Seva.

Good friend of mine.

Jose: High School friends from Venezuela.

We talk about our Catholic backgrounds.

Jose: Intros.

9:20
Dutch
America's cup in NZ
Computational analysis/simulation

9:23 Going to talk about oil, not renewables. Huge part of question in fossil fuels.
End of oil
Unconventional oil
Potential investments in oil
Carbon sequestration - potential solution? Shale gas?
In next 10 years will move into that, rather than renewables.
Interrupt me.
I can talk for 5 hours.
Also means, if you have further questions - as long as you are learning something. Can come back, finish.

Jose: Intro of Adriana/NASA.

A (Brief) State of Energy Address
Margot Gerritsen, Stanford University
http://www.smartenergyshow.com
margot.gerritsen@stanford.edu

= Page 1 =
Unfortunate advertisements of the past 

Awareness of global warming.
Before I was born, people talked about energy in different ways.
Humble Energy ad - boasting they can melt glaciers.

= Page 2 =
Te aio-tanga-nui 
Main drive: find ways to power the world sustainably 
Energy provision and balance is a *global* issue, 
and requires decisions based on global perspectives: 
There is no such thing as sustainable energy 
if it means exploiting other lands 

My drive: 5 yrs in NZ. 
Maori culture.
Statement symbolizes finding balance.
One thing that is driving me. Everything is put in perspective.
Whatever you do in Energy provision is a global issue.
Many were very locally focused. Example: biofuels.
Several states are very important agricultural states - 
for energy independence - no global implications considered.
OR any implications for other areas.
No one addressed water. Just narrow focus.
No thought about soybean replacement.
Surplus soybeans are food aid.
If you go to this source of energy, no more food aid.
Would be devastating to Africa.
No one thought of this.
Whatever large scale solutions you think of - you cannot do this nation by nation.
San: Water.
MG: We have 70 m arable acres. Most semi-arable.
Lots of soil quality. Can use for awhile without fertilizers, 
but lack is water.
You'd need several 100 m acres for cellulosic.
Import water from Canada.
Infrastructure would have to be very large.

World energy.

= Page 3 =
World:
Nuclear 6.4% 
Hydro 2.1% 
Comb. renew. & waste 
11% 
Gas 21% 
World energy 
Geothermal, solar, wind 
0.5% 
Coal 24% 
Oil 35.3% 

450EJ/yr 

US:
Nuclear 9.0% 
Hydro 1.1% 
Comb. renew. & waste 6
(3.2x10 MW) 
3% 
Gas 23% 
Geothermal, solar, wind 
US oil 
0.5% 
\u00b1 7 Bbbl/yr 
>20 Mbbl/day 
Coal 23% 
Oil 40% 

US energy 
100 EJ/yr 

= Page 4 =
Predicted US Consumption (EJ) 

Trajectories - oil and gas continue to grow.
Look at number of cars - constantly increasing.

This is what will happen if trends continue.
I'm hoping for a paradigm shift.
Car sharing -- not happening.
in largest part of country, still car-based society.

I spend a lot of time in the mid-west.
These things are happening very solidly.
Incredible resistance to change.
Much more than here.
Majority of population does not think the way we do.
Listen to Fox news - this is what the majority listen to.
Car use
Environmental pollution.
Heavily support oil/gas and coal industry.
I'm not as optimistic -
Paradigm shift would be very difficult to do.

Oil is $2 bn per day.
Vested interests are just enormous.
Shareholder companies - don't want to give that up.

Go to oil/gas conferences. They have lobbyists.

Marko: Price per unit for energy.

EIA

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm#

MG: All part of this.
Got to International Energy Agency.
Lot of thought behind it. Assumes oil price goes up.
Does not just extrapolate growth %.

60
History Projections
2000: 100 
oil 
Petroleum
50
50 2025: 150 
40
gas 
Natural gas
30
coal 
25 Coal
20
Nonhydro renewables
Nuclear
10 nuclear 
renewables 
Hydropower
0
1970 1980 1990 2002 2010 2025
2000 2025 
1970 

= Page 5 =
Oil Producing Countries 
OPEC 
Canada 
US 
North Sea 
Other 
Top producers: Saudi-Arabia, Russia, US, Iran 
Most reserves held by nationals, not majors 
Source: International Energy Assocation 

People think OPEC is supplier.
Only 40% actually comes from OPEC.
20% of imports come from Canada.
Much from Mexico, Nigeria.
Used to be Venezuela

= Page 6 =
US imports (3/08) perhaps surprising 
OPEC accounts for approximately 40% 
Source: Energy Information Administration (www.eia.doe.gov) 

Mexico 11%
Nigeria - now about 12%
Iraq 6% - clear why we are there
Mostly Canada and Mexico.
Canadian source has grown. 
Non conventional oil.
1.5 m b/day - of that, huge part from tar sands.

= Page 7 =
Oil/gas fields in the US 
Oil production 
Gas 
production 
Mixed 
Dry wells 
Source: Mast et al., 1998; www.eia.doe.gov/neic/infosheets/crudeproduction.html 

Still 3rd/ 4th largest producer in the world.
We still have quite a lot.
Oil green
Gas red on the map.
Lots of red in Appalacia.
Oil in South.
Gas in North.
Los Angeles - oil wells onSanta Monica Blvd. Outside looks like office building.

= Page 8 =
Production and Import US 
Source: Energy Information Administration (www.eia.doe.gov) 

Production declined since 1970s.
More a question of oil price.
Mammoth tankers came on the market - made global market.
More pipelines were built. 
Global market price - oil price dynamic is very different.
60
70
80's
had play makers.
That role has gone now.
Very little excess capacity.
Per b price was just higher in US than in Saudi.
So US production went down.
Gradually, oil became more expensive to produce in US.
Easy to produce reservoirs are declining.
Peak Oil
Huppert - USGS - very simple model. Completely symmetric.
Production follow same line as the decrease later. An exponential.
Doesn't make much sense - very lucky to predict peak.
Needless to day, we have a decline in easy to produce oil.
We'll never go back to the $12 / b in 2001
On average, price increases.

Saudi is producing over 10 m b/day. Getting a good price.
We need so much more, there is market for more expensive oil.

Jose: Ven has 1.3 t barrels of oil. Will overtake Saudi in terms of amount of oil. So there is plenty of oil.

In terms of T barrels. Using about 30 B barrels / yr.

Total already consumed, about 1 T barrels.
Roughly - other sources 1 T each.
Tremendous amount of alternative
heavy oil / Bitumen. Very viscous - unless simulated. Put heat in. Steam injection. Heating via in-situ. Some of oil that is very heavy is close to the surface - very \"young\" oil. Not consolidated to rock. Just scoop it up and melt the oil out by pouring hot water over it.

Ven has a lot.
Canada has a lot.

Look at shale oil - 
Most in sandstone today. Large pores.
Shale is more compact, harder to get things out. 1 T, 2 T - where? In Rockies.
Not saying this with a lot of enthusiasm. Hard, energy intensive to get out.

Footprint of production.
Oils have guck - heavy metals - you want to leave in the ground.
Tar sand production has high environmental price - not to mention the burning of it.

= Page 9 =
US annual discovery, production declining 
Source: Laherrere, Jan 2003 

= Page 10 =
World annual discovery, production declining? 
Finding costs and lifting costs are steadily rising: 
Easy to produce oil is certainly declining 
Source: Laherrere, Jan 2003 

= Page 11 =
Higher oil prices unlock more resources 
Not sure if that is a good thing (!) and unlocking takes time and $$$ 
Source: International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves, page 17, 2005 

All depends on oil price. More you will unlock these resources.

$70-80 / b drives alternatives.
Heavy oil price does not mean energy is going to be killed.
Incredible enthusiasm in oil to go to these resources.

= Page 12 =
Decline of easiest to produce reservoirs pushes industry to 
\u008f Invest in Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) techniques !
\u008f Move into more hostile environments (off-shore, North) !
\u008f Explore and produce non-conventional oils !
Sustainability? Balance? 

New recovery techniques. A lot of oil stays in the ground after \"easy\" production is finished. 70-80% of oil still there.

Move into more extremes - the North. 
When Berring Strait is free of ice - tremendous expansion.

= Page 13 =
Exotic enhanced oil recovery processes 
Gas injection 
maintains pressure, 
swells oil phase, and 
reduces oil viscosity 
CO generally attractive choice 
2
In-situ combusion 
Burns low percentage of oil, 
sets up steam flood, gas drive, 
and upgrades oil in-situ 

Oil recovery - stuff I've worked on.
CO2 injection is used to drive more oil out of reservior.
CO2 and oil mix. Oil face swells and viscosity goes down.
You can separate CO2 and pump it back in.
Putting about 20 Mtons of CO2 into ground in West Texas.
Biggest in the world. We need Giga-tons to make an impact, but still ...

Thermal stimulation.

= Page 14 =
Shale Gas 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shale_gas
and Oil? 
US shale gas 
1996 - 0.3 tcf 
2006 - 1.1 tcf 
4185 new wells 
in 2007 
Shale oil produced in Estonia (70% world), Brazil, China mostly 
Source: Energy Information Administration (www.eia.doe.gov) 

Mostly Appalacians.

Emem: Water injection?

Very common. Not considered alternative.

More about shale gas. Incredible initiative - get gas to replace coal.
Half of the carbon footprint of coal. Definitely a benefit.
Pushing heavily.
Strong lobbyists.
Washington DC is divided between solar/wind and shale gas.
50 states. Every one has 2 senators.
number connected to oil/gas is - it is the majority.

Progressive bills get support in House.
10% of US population in CA.
Get to Senate, changed a lot.
Carbon bill - very strongly impact, some say hijacked by coal industry.
Other shale gas - China, Estonia and Brazil.
China relying on coal - esp dirty coal. Has lots of impurities.

See wells that cost $100 m.
Never one below $1 m
Jose: Those were my home for 10 years.

= Page 15 =
Oil Sands (or Tar Sands) ??? 
Estimated resources trillions of barrels 
Canada 
\u008f Only large-scale commercial oil sands industry !
\u008f 2006 production 1.25 Mbbl/day (47% total Canadian prod.) !
Venezuela 
\u008f Orinoco oil largest known accumulation oil sand in the world !
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orinoco_Belt
\u008f Production currently difficult from lack of local gas !

Oil bill 
climate bill
has line of legislatoin
\"every imported oil must have carbon footprint below conventional oil\"
No one has defined \"conventional oil\"
Well to wheel?
Tar sands have 20% penalty 
Whether large scale regulation - as effective as conservation?

What you will see coming up - voice, \"stop oil sand imports into the US\"
Had passionate debate.
Have to stop it because it is so dirty.
Cut off imports with friendly neighbor. 
Are you going to stop production? No. It is a global market.
Naive to think if we say, \"we don't want it\" that production would stop.

If you cut this off, where does marginal barrel come from. Replacement oil could be dirtier.
Lots of political decisions.
Just crazy European Union ideas.
Green movement in Europe - 10% of liquid fuels from biofuels.
didn't think about Europe not being able to support this at this grand scale.
Where to get it?
Indonesia and Borneo deforested to grow palm oil.
First signals -
another local decision that was local.
Scandal - only green on paper.
Lots of decisions like this, have to be very careful.

Emem: Palm oil. Nigeria - people became rich.
$2 / barrel to produce oil.
Europe stopped using Palm oil. 
Deforestation effects whole world.
Why don't poor countries - who don't sell oil, sell palm oil.

MG: No decision you can make on energy that is positive for everybody.
Same arguments.
I'd like to see the coal industry go down.
Coal mining states in Congress object. You must say, yeah, you've got a point - that would be hard.
You cannot do this without looking at the local decisions having other consequences.
Most politicians only think regionally.
This is the problem.
People want to stay with the status quo.
Sceptical of paradigm shift technology.
Political / social cultural pattern.

Agricultural subsidies.
For food team - doesn't make sense to support rice industry in semi-arid California. Stop it? That would hurt people.
= Page 16 =
Our barrels and cubic ft come with increasing 
Main Question 
environmental (and cultural) impacts 
We have to be ultra-careful in choosing location and 
production techniques of fossil fuels 

= Page 17 =
Not a Pretty Picture. So, Now What? 
Urgent need for oil demand reduction: Save, baby, save ! 
\u008f Higher mpg cars and lower mileage per capita !
\u008f Increase efficiency of existing power and energy systems !
But demand will continue to grow (!!!!!!) 
\u008f Population growth, economic growth in China, India, Latin America !
Move from oil to other liquid fuels? 
\u008f ! Gas, biodiesel, ethanol, hydrogen 
Move to electric based transport? 
\u008f ! Electricity generated by gas, coal, nuclear 
\u008f ! Electricity generated by renewables 
As much as possible, use local, renewable resources 
and do it responsibly 

Strong movement against coal. Would be replaced by shale gas.
Most coal states have shale gas.
VA - special case.
Remember election last time.
People will be careful what they do.

We are just energy inefficient.
We say, we use more energy because distances are further.
In Reagan years, past oil crisis in 80s. Dismantled all that.
Average energy consumption went up, but not in CA.
Large distances - stayed at same level.
No reason.

Eric Wessoff: That's the Art Rosenfeld effect. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosenfeld_Effect
Appliance efficiency.
In the 70's enormous amounts of industry left CA is reason we used a lot less.
Structural change.

MG: Agricultural - 30% elec. used in agriculture.

EW: Jevon's paradox. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
Consumers are not rational. Make it more efficient - people use more.
Save, baby, save is better than drill, baby, drill.

MG: Demand will continue to grow. Population growth.
Hoping projections are too high.
China 
Latin America - huge market.
Brazil - looking at their total sugar cane production
If we take over our bad habits, we are in trouble there.

H hype for awhile. Quite expensive to build now.
Very slow to adopt some of these technologies.
Right now, really, increasingly less and less need for intermediate.
Nuclear
Large scale solar.
If I were the boss and everybody would listen,
I'd go to electric based transport with renewables.
Tony Seva - very close to grid parity with financing.

Spent a year talking to stakeholders. CEC here in CA.
Most challenges are political, regulatory challenges.
Don't discount that.
Everybody talks about costs.
Lot holding us back is the regulatory framework.
CA is a complete mess on all levels.
How to change that? Don't know.
= Page 18 =
How About Gas or Coal for Electricity? 
\u008f Easiest way to increase !
electricity supply is with coal 
Proven reserves 
to production ratio 
\u008f Gas probably peaks after !
oil, but trends similar 
\u008f How about clean coal? !
Carbon capture and storage? 
Source: BP Statistics, 2001 (oil: does not include nonconventional oil) 

= Page 19 =
Is Carbon Capture and Storage a Solution?

Carbon dioxide could be stored in 
\u008f ! Oil and gas reservoirs: enhanced oil and gas recovery. 
\u008f ! Deep formations that contain salt water. 
\u008f ! Coal beds (adsorbed CO replaces adsorbed CH ) 
2 4

What did MJ talk about? 

Colleagues are proponents. Store co2. Capture from a power plant.
Ineffective to capture at car-level.
Put it in depeleted oil/gas reservoir.
Deep water 
Coal bed. Methane there. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalbed_methane
Absorbs CO2 and methane production. \"Enhanced coalbed methane\"

Saline aquafer. look at capacity - this is very large. Less for others.
Problem with sequestration - for most we understand. How long does it take for the CO2 to be really trapped. May be a plume that finds \"leak\"
Give it long enough in saline aquafer. It dissolves.
Assessing the risk of leakage.
Very few- non truly commercial project. Difficult to deal with this uncertainty.

Suppose CO2 finds it way out. 25 miles away. Comes out and kills people. Bubble kills people in a hollow.
Generator station that was checked by 2 maintenance people.
One never came up, the other went to check and never came back.
Concentrated CO2 is very poisonous.
Risk is small. put in perspective.

= Page 20 =
CCS / Sequestration Not Widespread 
Sleipner (North Sea): 1 Mt/yr 
In Salah (Algeria): 1 Mt/yr 
In West Texas: 20 Mt/yr 
(E missions from 1 GW Coal Plant: 6 Mt/yr) 

Huge, huge infrastructure we have to build.
20 Mton injection per year for oil recovery.
Just one plant is emitting 6 Mton per year.
To make impact, need to sequester Gigaton.

What will outcome be?
How much could it help us?
Compare to other measures?
Not the silver bullet.
Taken up by fossil fuel industry because it can make coal sound clean.

= Page 21 =
Is CCS Practical? 
Technology is available (thanks to petroleum industry), but 
\u008f To stabilize at current rate we need 25,000 Sleipners !
\u008f Storage security uncertain: risk analyses needed !
\u008f Legal framework is not yet in place !
CCS will be heavily sponsored by stimulus bill 
\u201cARRA provides $3.4 billion for additional research and development on 
fossil energy technologies. A portion of this funding is expected to be used 
to fund projects under the Clean Coal Power Initiative program, focusing on 
projects that capture and sequester greenhouse gases. [..] additional 1 
gigawatt of coal capacity with CCS will be stimulated by 2017\u201d 
(www.doe.gov) 
Should we invest this much? Is \"clean coal\" an oxymoron? 
Will it only \"sustain\" vested interests? 

Lot of investments. 100s of people working.
Wish these people were in solar, smart grid designs.

Q: Algae?

one development people are pushing for
Good for some local solutions.
To make fully scalable, 

Jose: J Trent Omega

I'm talking about the global scale. 
Low hanging fruits. Where would you invest? Not algae.
Would be drop on the plate - maybe big.
Not in the same league as large scale solar.

Gary: capabilities

Time to market. Can make some difference locally.
If doing resource assessment at global scale - how much out
Very good alternatives.
Wind in the Dakotas. Energy density could be quite high.
Reasonable to implement.

Marko: Calculations you could give us?

Ask Tony. Lots around.
If you have a DNI - Direct Incidence of solar. We have 1000s of sq miles.
You would need 200 x 200 mile area to supply the energy of the US.
A bit difficult to make estimates.
NREL
Various solar energy maps.
Requirements - land grade. Contiguous area. Can't have fragmented.

Marko: Comprehensive? 
Cost per unit.

Some articles. Most too narrow.
Nothing out there that is a really fair comparisons.
Lots of comparisons of apples and pears.
Not considering subsidies. Transports.
Regulatory frameworks.
Sounds feasible - but hard to do.
Attempted, but easy to find holes.
I do some of this myself - water comparison study.
Using USGS, NREL.
A lot of the NGOs, trying to come up with assessment.

JG: Simulation of human brain. What about actor-based simulation?

Ultimately, brain is simple. With people, market/decision - very difficult to predict. Uncertainty estimation.

Marko: Where would you invest?

Oil and gas.
Field in West Texas.
Solar - some money.
Dicey year in 2010.
Make or break year for CSP. Globally for next few years.

Jose: Oil and gas. PetroChina.
First company 2007 market cap of $1 T. Then dropped after a few days.
Want to go through other energy sources.
Mark Jacobson talked about wind.

= Page 22 =
Electricity Using Nuclear? 
In US, 100 reactors supply 9% of electricity 
Utilities Ready With New Projects 
\u008f ! Cost competitive* 
\u008f ! Resources high, but debated 
\u008f ! Very low GHG 
\u008f ! Need solutions for long term nuclear waste storage* 
\u008f ! Public fear for accidents, proliferation 
Stimulus bill? 
390M$ for enrichment, decontamination, decommissioning 
*External costs not included in costs per KWh for any resource 

Never been friend of H highway.
Looking at larger scale solutions.
You'll hear more about nuclear.
17 plans being debated, permitted.
Politically too difficult.
Greens in Germany - they decreed that they needed to stop nuclear production.
Where do you get electricity from then? We import it. Where from? France - mostly nuclear based. Or Poland - mostly coal based.
But did not show up in carbon footprint.
US President has not been mentioning nuclear as much as Obama has.

Marko: Nuclear is linear on your chart.

Permits are not to add, just replace. 

Marko: Grow?

Not that much. But we'll get some new ones. it depends. Plants take some years to build.
With CSP - direct competition. 
If CSP does not make it- we'll know in a year's time.
Then nuclear.

Marko: Cheapest?

Depends on how you count. Very difficult to make cost estimates.
Fuel component is very low compared to capital cost.
Depends on loan guarantee.
Who invests.
With government guarantee, lower loan rate.
External costs? Long term storage is not counted.

Marko: And cost of that?

Very expensive. Who is going to pay?
Other than risk -
Oil spill. Interviewed by newspapers - 
Not impact on oil industry.
offshore oil/gas won't go away.

Will be impact on nuclear.

Risk of something happening is very low. Consequences are huge.
Problem people have had with nuclear.

If nuclear goes wrong, could be very bad. 
Low risk systems that could lead to large scale risks in the end.
Same with CO2.
Risk estimation, extremely hard.
People have strange ideas on risk.

= Page 23 =
Use Renewable Resources 
Annual available energy & consumption 
as fraction of total annual world consumption 
(ballpark) 
Source: W. Hermann, Quantifying Global Exergy Res., 2005 

Put things in perspective.
What is out there in terms of resources.
Order of magnitude.
Wind data from Jacobsen and other experts.
This what we have and what it looks like.
First number is factor +/- 50% or so, as fraction of wind now.
Wind could be extracted technologically -45x the energy we need.
Second number is amount we are using.

Solar is 1000s
Ocean is relatively low - technically hard.
Geothermal - still technologically difficult.
Hydro - interesting 0.3, 0.02 - closest. We are 7-8%. Huge for an energy system. In many parts of world we say hydro is maxed out

Micro hydro good for developing world

Photosynth - very small %

Obviously from this we should try to tap into solar.

Nuclear - interesting article - claims it could never be part of solution - run out of Uranium. Huge, just not explored for them.
Based on current, minimal exploration.

= Page 24 =
Specialized Biomass Crops 
Emphasis on US cellulosics, exploitation tropics controversial 
Photosynthesis captures less than 1% of solar energy 
Photovoltaic cells beat plants convincingly by factor of 15-25 
Lively debate 
Scalability? Conversion efficiency? Crop yield? 
Land use conflicts? Water security? GHG? 
Environmental impacts? Fertilizers? 
Agricultural subsidy? 
Is it a reasonable local solution in (semi-)tropical areas? 
Stimulus bill 
Development (loan guarantee); production tax credits extended till 
2014; science ($1.6B total, stipulation: lifecycle GHG reduction) 

Very controversial. Don't believe in large scale application of this.
Cellulosic ethanol. Captured solar energy. Using stored solar as biomass source. % you get out is very small compared to PV. An order to two in magnitude better to use PV than plants.

In the US, pushed a lot. Incredible public debate, and support. Then people say, doesn't help carbon footprint.
Money going into cellulosic ethanol, algae - carbon seq gets 2x as much.

= Page 25 =
Geothermal: Traditional, pumps, dry hot rock 
Dry hot rock uses existing technologies from petroleum industry 
Resources being explored, controversy 
Stimulus bill? 
Loan guarantee; production tax credits; science ($1.6B total) 
Source: Los Alamos National Laboratory, R. Horne 

Will hear more in two areas:
Heat pumps put on buildings like schools , offices some homes.
Over 1 m in US.
Geothermal heat pump area growing.
less intrusive - nice market.
Dry hot rock. Go deep under the surface - several miles down.
Not a biggy - we've been doing that forever.
Drill 2 wells.
Fracture rock.
Put down cold fluid.

Deepest well is 35,000 ft now.

= Page 26 =
Wind Cost Competitive and Growing Fast 
Top producers (2009) 
\u008f ! US 35,000 MW 
\u008f ! Germany 25,000 MW 
\u008f ! China 25,000 MW 
\u008f ! Spain 19,000 MW 
Total end 2009 158,000 MW 
2 2
1-2 million turbines for all US demand (350x350 mi with 10 MW/km ) 
Main challenges: robustness of large turbines; transmission availability and 
pricing; intermittency; policy consistency to build mature wind industry 
Stimulus Bill? 
Transmission (loan guarantee,$4,5B delivery/reliability); production 
tax credit to 2013; loan guarantee; science funding (1.6B$ total) 
Source: windpower.org 

You've heard Mark J.
He is biggest proponent of wind.

Cost functions. Always debating. Just growing. Taking care of itself.
Cost competitive and a lot of places. Consolidated itself. 
Needs subsidy climate.
One number - to supply US demand 1-2 m turbines.
10 MW / sq km 
Regulatory framework and policy.

Renewable only requires subsidies?
Fossil fuels have tremendous subsidies.
Solar generates above the ground.
Gas - below surface - tax breaks.
Hidden subsidies.
If you say \"subsidy\"

Marko: in US

Everywhere. You need to do comparison from level playing field.

Jose: Invite Margot to be consultant.
Drove Mark's Tesla.

MG: I have a bike.

Jose: Asking, visit lab at Stanford. Combined trip. Running late.
= Page 27 =

= Page 28 =
The Sunny Energy Resource 
Must be main target because of abundance of solar energy 
2 
Estimated energy density 30-100 MW/km
US energy supply requires anywhere between 100x100 to 200x200 
2
mi with current efficiencies 

= Page 29 =
http://www.solarmillennium.de/upload/Animationen/
andasol_blue_engl.swf 

= Page 30 =
Large Scale Solar Not a New Idea 

= Page 31 =
Renewed Interest thanks to Incentives 

= Page 32 =
A Solar Rush - maybe 

= Page 33 =
Solar Faces Some Challenges 
Challenges for central large-scale solar projects 
In the short term 
\u008f ! Siting 
\u008f ! Transmission 
\u008f ! Financing (create level playing field) 
In the longer term 
\u008f ! Improve efficiencies 
\u008f ! Develop effective storage and integration systems 
Stimulus Bill? 
Transmission; production tax credits to 2014; loan guarantee; 
Science ($1.6B total); but not a Marshall plan 

= Page 34 =
Are We on the Right Track? hmm 
We will be dependent on fossil fuels for next few decades 
There are (too) strong vested interests: facing big fight 
Urgent need for demand reduction 
Stimulus: weatherization (5B$); efficiency (>3B$) 
Also: Higher MPG standards; building codes 
Urgent need for solar (wind, geothermal) and electric transport 
Rely on local and sustainable resources, produced responsibly 
Stimulus: Advanced batteries (2B$); science (1.6B$); 
loan guarantee (6B$); transmission (4.5B$); 
CCS (out of 3.4B$ fossil fund); nuclear (0.39B$) 
But no Marshall plan for solar, which I think we really need 

= Page 35 =

------------------
India: Micro hydro or wind. Simple solar. 
Africa: 
Follow Kickstart
Martin Fisher.
http://www.kickstart.org/about-us/people/martin-fisher.php

Really thinks about larger consequences.
Systems forget about depleting aquafer.
Local materials.
Local expertise.
Very simple in construction.
Ownership in local community.
Understand social structure.
Not just technology.
Managed to create buying / leasing /owning
that makes it sustainable.
Can't say to village chief: You are in charge.
When it breaks down.

Example: Farmers got rich. Whole extended family wanted to be supported.
could not pay lease aggrements.
Focus on local systems, local resources.

Jose: Wonderful. Thank you.

========

Eric: I will wake you up.
\"A Brief Overview of Renewable Energy Sectors\"
Wesoff
Started successful and unsuccessful companies.
VC
Greentech media

Jose: recommended that.

Eric: Not spamming.
You can sign up for daily, weekly or continuous.

Marko: Only 3 today.

Jose: A different point of view.

11:00 Eric: 
greentechmedia

VC funded.
Just stopped being a non-profit. We are making money now.

- More coal?
- Peak oil?
- Peak air?
China city at noon on a sunny day. Like smoking 50 cigarettes a day.
- oil covered bird
- Peak Temperature?
Anthropogenic or not. Problem
- photo of Germany? No sun. Yet Germany owns 51% of solar generation.
- Solar Resources
US is the Saudi Arabia of sun.
germany gets as much sun as Alaska.
- Solar insolation map
Jose: Gary and Juan - come from sunny places
EW: And place where tarrif was screwed up.
So why does Germany own solar industry?
Policy.
Always be coming back to policy.
Spain has solar - CSP.
Specifically feed in tarriffs.

- Energy Generation Mix.
50% of electricity from coal.
In 2007, 21% from nuclear. (US)

In 2030, 39% from coal. 29% from nuclear.
If we don't make some changes, this 9% green slice is the best we can do.
Still have 51% from coal. 
I don't buy that.
We can do better.
I don't like previous presenter's shale oil.
Worst place.

I don't accept that inevitability.
We can accelerate through SV mentality.

Nuclear green?
- Energy Generation
- Greentech vs Maintech (Khosla)
Buildings

- Photovoltaics - Phase 1
Solar PV were invented in the US. Bad policy caused loss of industry.
- PV Phase 2
Off-Grid lifestyle choice

- PV Phase 3
14 MW at Nellis AFB. Map: http://bit.ly/9M5Psp
Trackers.
Marko: efficiency? Trend.
1 sq meter. 

Eric:
LCOE
$ / W
$ / W / sq meter
Use them all.

Everybody has own agenda.

-
-
-
- Global PV Demand 2000-2008
Germany overtakes 
Spain jumps to #1. But feed in tariff http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feed-in_tariff

- PV 
- Gigawatt Scale Solar 
1 GW is small nuke or one large coal

China is building 1 coal plant every week.

- SunFab 
Scale of solar.

- utility scale solar
SEGS in so cal.
Solar works well when sun shines
Wind works when wind blows.
Way to help - store heat as molten salt - use that to continue to turn turbine.

Spain, at 11 pm spike of energy use for dinner.

- power tower architecture. heliostats.
Boiling water with the sun on a massive scale.

- Applied materials parking lot in Santa Clara.
- c-Si Start ups
Secret - answer has to be technology

The black swan. Technology that will blow away, look at current technology and somebody is going to double that performance.

- These in CPV
Financers
Next Gen solar
More companies to be added.
Maybe one of these .... most will fail.
Started with prof. with powerpoint -won't be the right technology.
But that one ... can't tell you which one - disrupts.

Jose: Nanosolar - not doing so well already.

Nanosolar does CIGS - Taken $1 bn.
Done nothing.
Money could be used for other purposes.
A lot will not make it.

Al: Lead?
CadTel - not something to eat. First solar owns 14% market share.
So VCs want \"second\" solar.
CIGS has potential to be highest efficiency.
Solyndra has taken $550 m in loan guar from Fed.

Amorphous Si not likely

One of these will 10x the performance and 1/10 the cost.

Few out there: Output tech
50 cents / W

- Steady and STrong 
51% growth
Price has plummeted.
Adding capacity.
Due to price of silicon feedstock. Exactly the pinch point.

- Good news, 17 GW in 2013. Bad news ONLY 17 GW.
In 2009, Blue bar. Amount of solar was German.
Other solar users.
If change of policy in Germany, doesn't impact entire globe.

China exports all their PV.
Can become a user of PV.
Nice if they were an importer, but unlikely.

51% growth every year.

- 2015, with 1% hike. Areas with grid parity. Peak power cost = solar.
Already there is some areas.

Marko: Explain.

We have power plants in the US devoted to the 30-40 hours per year when we need them for A/C.

Marko: Baseload power?

Don't know.
- What is the Smart Grid?
Lot of buzz. A lot is B.S.

Go to greentechmedia.
Taxonomy of what it looks like - http://bit.ly/bYXmaq

- Energy Storage
Maybe a black swan.
Pumped Hydro
CAES - salt cavern
- Unpredictable wind. Nightmare to utility.
- Intermittent Solar - gaps are clouds.

Marko: if you have many, they smooth out.

Fabio: Ultra-capacitors.

Megawatt storage farms. Need 4 GW 
20% by 2012
30% by 2020 CA

Most efficient energy storage?
CAES!
Pumped hydro.

- Transportation
- Algae?
You are renting, recycling. You never store the carbon.
VCs have put billions in.
Very difficult.
Grow, then starve the algae. Produces lipids.
Then break open.
Then dry out - very energy intensive process.

Mercy: J Trent.
Forward osmosis.
Eric: Hope he can do it.
License out.
China has food based systems already.
I don't know the math.
osmotic gradient is great idea.
He's done it with a little plastic bag.
Waste water - brilliant.

- artists rendering of algae farm.
Biggest employee - artists.
No one is doing this:
missing?
Transmission. No wire
Water in the desert? Where do you get the water?

Jose: Subscribe.

- hanging algae
wrong way to do it.
Algenol - photobioreactor
Instead of fats/ lipids - directly emit ethanol via GM.
But too high, kills the bacteria.
Lot of problems
Feds gave them $25 m.
You have to bet on these.
Woman at Morgan Stanley.
Wanted to become a algae producer.
Story - GM algae? Math wouldn't work.
Went to Salton Sea. Horrible inland sea.
Tried to grow it. No lab coat. 
Horrible, dusty dry place to grow algae 
So went to LA.
Grow like Trent - now on boat. Getting sea sick.
Wrong way.
Tried to grow to feed fish. Manhattan -
hard to harvest algae, easy fo harvest fish.
Boil fish, squeeze them, extract fish oil.
Banker at Morgan Stanley went to boiling fish.
Law of unintended consequences.
Congratulations, you are now a fish farmer.
Comment: feed fish to bears, and squeeze the bear.

- Automotive Start-up Succss Stories [another blank slide]
We've watched Tesla go public.
Got through IPO window.
$109,000 car does not solve the Chindia problem.
$5,000 tatas.
Tesla is the toy of the rich, upper middle class software millionaires.

- Lightning car company
- Venturi - from Monoco
- Forget about Tesla - BYD - Chinese car.
Lithium F6, for $25,000. Will kick the ass of Sedan or Volt or Leaf.
Incredibly vertically integrated company.
Factory is a mile long.
Every box is a BYD product.

- Porsche.
- Ferrari
7.8 MPG to 11.1 MPG

EVs?
[plug into coal or nuclear plant]
Still have a carbon problem.
Ain't the answer.
I drive a \"green\" car [in color only]

- A few conclusions
* No one silver bullet - the future will be a patchwork
* A GW of energy does not come cheap
* Unforeseen consequences? Wind power plant - so erratic, must be backed up by gas plant. 
* Policy, policy, policy
China has clear policy they can implement, boom.
US has 1000s of lawyers blocking
Transmission - takes 20 years.
China says, start here, end here.

JG: Behind the meter?
Theoretical fantasy.
Dollars.
Love the idea - information on periphery
Sounds good. 
Batteries cost a lot of money. They can't afford it.
Theory sounds spectacular.

Fart simulator iPhone app.
4 22 yr olds -> in 3 months, you have a product.
CES - community energy storage.
Microgrid.

Cost - first in costs.
Solar on roof - 20 years of electricty up front.

Emem: Generator. $14,000 for generator.
Then buy diesel.
$400 per month.
Ola: More than that.
$6K per year.
So solar is cheap.

Solar competes with diesel.
Grid is never there.

Mercy: Africa - Nigeria is special case.

Emem: Grid is not constant.

Eric: Yes. 
Good point.

Ola: Moving towards grid parity.
Eric: Was this fun?
Gary: Same question.
Eric: Better birth control.
Change behavior and population.

Technology and policy.
How do you change the energy policy of a billion people.

Juan: impact 
Jose: We have $4000

CAES? Heat issue.
Expanding gas gets cold.
Low cost energy storage - both centralized and distributed.

I want to be a dictator and depopluate the Earth.
Biggest user of electricity is the utility - they lose 7% in transmission.
I squared R losses.

Al: CPV?
Eric: Mild celebrity. The zero billion dollar.
No body has made it work profitably.
When silicon is cheap, value proposition is fragile.
Not disruptive.
Just more expensive.

CSP - multi GW success.

May be economies of scale.
Direct Normal Incidence - DNI must be high.
Not a lot of clouds.

Forget it.
Brightsource - 2 GW contract with PG&E

Stupidest idea ever: Solaryn. Convert energy, beam.
$10,000/kg. Maybe someone can make this work.
Convert to RF or microwave - amount of energy put out, all dispersed.
Raw radiowaves, convert back to electricity.
Becomes 0.001 of energy collected.
Ola: Mine from the moon. Bring to Librarion point.

Marko: Lot of companies. Not focus on one thing. Find higher solution.

Eric: Patchwork.

Marko: Lot of fields. Lot of startups. Should look outside the box - or higher level.

Eric: One other interesting thing.
O Power http://www.opower.com/
Send, electric bill. You open it, write check. You think about it for 10seconds and you are done.
When yo uused power. When you used a lot of power.
Making money from the utility.
JUst that information lowers the electric bill by 3%.
35 m in rev today from utility.
They own the electric bill.
Avg bill $150/m
Aggregate can shut several coal plants.
Amount of GW is about 1/3 of global PV industry.
Software co, paper, a bill and behavior modification
MAybe answer is not material or toy, but way to change behavior.
35 m in rev, saving 1-3%. Could be 5% savings.

Jose: How to spend money.
Eric: Not on speakers.
I write 2,000 words a day.
More than glad to stay engaged.
Greentech media puts on events - you are invited. We charge people, but we don't charge you.

Solar Trillions
Tony Seba

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul21-ETIR-0-1
"Energy Team
References relating to ETIR:

Here is an excellent FORMAT for an on-line report:
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/5/1/014005/fulltext
The paper addresses the science behind 
cool roof initiatives
such as 
DOE Announces Steps to Implement Cool Roofs Across the Federal Government
July 19, 2010
http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/news/daily.cfm/hp_news_id=256
http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/news/daily.cfm/hp_news_id=256

ALTERNATIVE & RENEWABLE
ENERGY DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE
http://www.aeecenter.org/i4a/pages/index.cfm?pageID=3405

Environmental concerns (and lower costs) are motivating more residents to go solar
By Joseph P. Kahn, Globe Staff | July 20, 2010
http://www.masscec.com/index.cfm/page/At-home,-panel-discussions/cdid/11602/pid/11150
when Konicki had rooftop panels installed on his house in Webster and signed an 18-year contract with SunRun, the California company that owns and maintains the equipment, to be his main electricity vendor. He figures he will save 8 cents per kilowatt hour in future energy costs \u2014 taking 50 percent or more off his monthly bill, which has averaged about $66 \u2014 while helping save the planet. 

Guys
Keep in mind if you want these areas for the outline
- CO2 to energy - Joule technologies is one co in this category
- waste to energy - will be big everywhere but particularly in developing world
Methane from - landfills and - coal-bed methane are two examples
Jim

India
Electricity Crisis Hobbles an India Eager to Ascend
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/21/world/asia/21india.html?_r=1

Micro grid: Finding community-level energy sharing way
1/
KAMENETZ, ANYA. \"Why the Microgrid Could Be the Answer to Our Energy Crisis.\" Fast Company 2009. Print.
- \"On the roof, powering this cozy scene, sits a half-kilowatt microwind turbine and 5.5 kilowatts' worth of solar panels. The system was roughly half paid for by a $25,000 grant from the Massachusetts Technology Collaborative, which administers a fund collected from a surcharge on every electric bill in the state. The solar installation can produce two to three times as much energy as Butler's home needs, meaning she can run her meter backward and sell a surplus back to the grid, a procedure called \"net metering.\" 
- Butler can bank power in the batteries in her basement -- they hold enough to run her house for a week -- and sell it back to the grid at times of peak use. 
- the payback on Butler's $60,000 system at four-and-a-half years or less.
http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/137/beyond-the-grid.html?page=0,1
2/
http://www.allianceforresponsibleenergypolicy.com/
\"Photovoltaic technologies and micro wind turbines installed on residential and commercial buildings are THE BETTER WAY. \" 
http://www.allianceforresponsibleenergypolicy.com/betterwaydefined.html
3/
http://science.howstuffworks.com/microgrid.htm
http://science.howstuffworks.com/smart-grid.htm
THE SMART GRID: Enabling Energy Efficiency and Demand Response 
Clark Gellings
https://www.aeeprograms.com/store/detail.cfm?id=1037&category_id=6
4/ 
http://showcase.homesandcommunities.co.uk/case-study/ecotowns-amersfoort-the-netherlands.html
Eco-towns: Amersfoort (The Netherlands) One of the greenest cities in Europe
http://showcase.homesandcommunities.co.uk/files/general/eco-town-report.pdf
5/
Urban Scale PV projects
http://www.pvdatabase.org/projects_viewupscale.php
6/
Korea's S-Energy
http://www.s-energy.co.kr/MalgumBoard/Index.asp?BoardMode=View&BoardCode=notice&Seq=87
- investing 3.5 billion won of R&D costs until 2013
- expected to form the market of more than 50 billion dollar, rapidly increasing as much as being expected to grow more than 70%, that is from last year\u2019s 7.5GW to 13GW this year
- 90% exports (5 MW to Europe )
7/
Small is Profitable
http://www.smallisprofitable.org/ExecutiveSummary.html
This study therefore seeks to provide the first full and systematic, if preliminary, public synthesis of how making electrical resources the right size can minimize their costs and risks. Its main findings are:
*The most valuable distributed benefits typically flow from financial economics\u2014the lower risk of smaller modules with shorter lead times, portability, and low or no fuel-price volatility. These benefits often raise value by most of an order of magnitude (factor of ten) for renewables, and by about 3\u20135-fold for nonrenewables. 
http://www.smallisprofitable.org/Links.html
8/
http://www.cader.org/
http://www.cader.org/conference.html
Chart: Billions of clean tech investments by State
source: http://cleantech.com/news/5755/cleantech-thriving-AB32-data
Produces jobs: Venture capital has proven to be the fastest, most efficient driver of job creation. A Cleantech Group analysis in conjunction with environmental policy advocates Environmental Entrepreneurs (E2), estimated that 2,700 direct jobs are created for every $100M in venture investment, or about $37,000 per job on average.

In-situ resources: Using in-situ energy sources and resources. 
1/
The Fundamentals of Sustainable Development & Carbon Reduction Online Seminar
http://www.aeeprograms.com/realtime/CSDPprep/SeminarAgenda.htm
2/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agenda_21
3/ 
UN CSD
http://climate-l.org/2010/05/04/csd-18-commences-review-of-transport-chemicals-waste-management-mining-and-sustainable-consumption-and-production/

e.g. In Nigeria, the government energy policy impose heavy tax on imported energy generating devices.
THE PLACE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE NIGERIAN ENERGY SECTOR (2009)
http://www.worldfuturecouncil.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Presentations/
http://www.worldfuturecouncil.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Presentations/Nigeria_RENEWABLE_ENERGY_MASTERPLAN.pdf
and
Renewable Energy For Rural Development : The Nigerian Perspective (2005)
http://www.isesco.org.ma/ISESCO_Technology_Vision/NUM01/A.S.Sambo/A.S.Sambo.pdf
and
Renewable Energy For Rural Development : The Nigerian Perspective (2005)
http://www.isesco.org.ma/ISESCO_Technology_Vision/NUM01/A.S.Sambo/A.S.Sambo.pdf

DIY energy: Inventing simple and cheap way of energy generation

Hybrid: Harnessing multi-source for energy generation 

Sterling Engine: Using stirling engine to catch the wasted heat energy
e.g. Catching the heat energy form Chimney or auto mobile
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_engine

Compressed Air Energy Storage: Using CAES

Using waste: 
e.g. using wasted CDs for energy generation, Using feathers for small windmill 

Helium Balloon: Flying balloon with small windmills to catch strong wind from high altitude 

Making wind: Facilitating wind-power generation by adding specially designed structure or terrain 

Viral Web Site: Spreading our idea or Gathering more ideas from the public to make it more effective.

Bio Batteries: Finding bio-chemical ways to store energy 

Auto + Grid energy storage: Using batteries of electric cars to supply extra energy to the grid during the peak time 

Robotics - Using robotics to save energy.
e.g. AI cars convoying themselves

Recapturing wasted Heat Energy 

http://ge.geglobalresearch.com/blog/waste-heat-recovery-the-hidden-source-of-energy/ 
GE's Organic Rankine Cycles : GE is working on it and it is applicable to reciprocating engines, small-scale gas turbines and industrial waste heat sources

Energy conservation: Using technology to conserve energy
e.g. Using infrared camera to show how the energy heat energy is leaking, Using IT to educate people

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_conservation
Energy conservation policies of many countries

http://cleantechnica.com/2008/12/05/thermal-leak-detector-saves-up-to-20-percent-in-energy-costs/
Thermal Leak Detector Saves Up to 20 Percent in Energy Costs

http://www.energyeducation.com/
People based energy conservation

Emem insists this reference is wrong:
Vaccaro, Alfredo, editor. \u201cReliable Electric Power for Developing Countries\u201d
\u201cRoughly 350\u2013400 million households, or 40% of the population of developing countries, have no access to electricity.\u201d http://www.ieeehtc.org/files/Reliable_Electricity_Challenge_Description.pdf

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul14-Team-Meeting
"Wednesday
7/14/2010
Bob Metcalfe, General Partner
bmetcalfe@polarisventures.com

http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul14-Team-Meeting

2:30 - 3:30 pm: Bob Metcalfe (with Energy Team Project (and we welcome Ambassadors from other Team Projects:-)
Pad: http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul14-Team-Meeting
3:30 - 4:30 pm: Energy Team ProjectS (John, Alaeddine, Jose, Eric, etc.)

2:54 
Descibe cool companies.
OR MIT Energy initiative.

Q: We are try to identify problem that effects 1 bn. Design product / service, what should we work on?

Wow. 
Sorry not prepared.

Q: Home generation.

We've invested in a professor whose vision is to use solar.
Need to store it.

Q: Supercapacitors?

Not a good use for that. Hydrogen.
Electricity to split water - hydrolysis.
Reason you do that is for the huge energy density of H.
Like propane tank. Residential scale.
System would produce elect at night.
Completely clean water. All impurities left behind.
H converted to fuel - ethanol.
For vehicles.

Luke: Efficiency - electrolysis and loss in recombination?

In solar world - those who talk efficiency? Max 22% Space solar 40%
Other kind who talk cost, pennies per kW.
Not efficiency play.
10,000x the energy is completely wasted.
0% efficiency now.
This innovation is KOH equivalent.
Minimal cost, pH 7
Room temp.
Same efficiency.
Not big machines, but small residential.
Dan Nocera.

Jose: Video on portal.

Cost thing.
If you want something to be dirt cheap, make it out of dirt.
PVC.
Don't need stainless steel.
Catalyst is Cobalt Phosphate.
Whole story aimed at low cost.

Another angle to defend against.
More money spent getting ready to process.
This guy's approach works with dirty water.

A billion people.
Sun catalytics. Very early. Solar water for off-grid residential.

Sunlight + water.
Electricity
Clean water
oxygen - stunning number need O2 to breathe.

Take H - a great chemical, make other materials.
Imagine a billion of those.

Emem: Thought. One problem with being able to sell to 1 bn people - affordable? Early adoptors have the economic power and credit in the US. What economic model would be used to enable people to buy?

Not even close to taking on that difficult problem.
We're trying to make world's cheapest electrolyzer. To help with that problem. Just focused on driving down cost.

Another project on agenda. Instead of solar cell ... integrate .. photos to H, skipping electricity. Or direct to liquid fuel. Might buy a little box that does this miracle.

Gary: Spain. 

Bob: You guys win world cup?

Gary: Omega - algae. 

Jose: Trent

Gary: Algae platforms on the sea. Provide energy needs for coming years. Interesting, but point to keep on focusing on how to produce more - or change to more sustainable? Don't have time to do switch in time available.

Bob: Fuels from algae. Why not sustainable?

Gary: 

Bob: Closed loop. 

Gary: Does it take it all? Completely clean process?

Bob: I'm an expert. we lost $10 m. Algae business. Very promising. Surprise we encountered was at the point of making the algae. What do you use it for? For sequestration, you bury it. What do they pay you? Nothing.

[ room becomes even more crowded ]

Jose: you are a sensation

Bob: Able to make algae. Take CO2 out, but no one will pay you. $30/ton in Europe.

Gary: Amount of algae platforms, surface impact would take all CO2 on whole earth?

Bob: Don't have math handy. We did the math for a large coal plant.
25,000 acres of greenhouses for the flue gasses of the coal plant.
Sounds huge, right. Surprise. It is huge. Revenue you could get for selling the algae - more valuable, plant food, rather than energy.

Could take it, burn it in the coal plant or convert to valuable motor fuels.
Feed and food = algae is worth 10x more. Swamps revenue from power plant.

Gary: Do you see the future trend to keep on focusing on fuel creation? Rather than switching to alternative source?

Bob: Fuel - hydrocarbons. 
Class: biofuel
Mercy: Produce fuel from bacteria. Extract that oil, ...
Bob: Why don't you like that? CO2 from atmosphere. Sustainable fuel, CO2 where it goes in a circle.
Hydrocarbon or biofuel?

Gary: Way we should keep on thinking?

Bob: Biofuels are not clean - still produce CO2. Now I finally understand.
Real bad ones are hydrocarbons.
Not so bad, biofuels, renewable.
Higher, solar or nuclear. Those don't produce any CO2 at all.

We have investments in 3 solar. Hoping it comes along in next few years.
Has to be some phasing planned.
Won't all happen at once.
Big surprise is natural gas. 40% of carbon as oil 
Just discovered (US) have just found 100 years of it, in the last year.
Progress on decarbonization - 100% to 40%.
Go from wood to coal to oil to gas to solar.
Each time, decarbonizing, step by step.
You are saying, jump to solar.
We don't know how.

Jose: Mercy ...
Eric: Deployed internet. Not from big players.
How to bring in revolution?

Bob: They'll eventually come around.
Eric: When they retire.
Bob: When they die. When they retire, they are still there voting.
The status quo is sometimes right: reliability, cost.
Because we are impatient, want to save the Earth, need solutions that run around the status quo.

Top form of energy is Negawatts.

David R: Candid feedback on micro nuclear reactors on ships?

Do that now. our aircraft carriers.

Nuclear is going to be very important. Not green. Hold against the greenies their obstructionism of nuclear. Rather than building big, $15 b nukes, small modular reactors (SMR) - one the size of a refridgerator to power a city of 10,000 for 10 years. Produces heat. Manufactured, instead of constructed.

Big reactors cannot be built here, must be built in Japan.

Small ones could be buried. No moving parts.

Fran: Stolen?

Bob: not really - if you go to pick it up, it will melt you.
Nine variations of this.
Why steal it?

Dirty bomb - amplify effects.

No weapons grade. Unless you had reprocessing.
Produce much less waste.
Hard to steal them.
There is a security concern - can't afford SWAT team, tank, ....
Very hard to steal. You bury them.
With improper gear - too hot.
If you break it open.

Jose: question order

Three things left:
Ed
Health Care
Energy

Univ of Phoenix - 400,000 students. Growing rapidly. Distance learning based.
Disintermediated.
Don't have to go to Uni.
\"Here comes Phoenix\"

Institution -
Music
AT&T not the same company anymore
Harvard / MIT / ... all those universities to the extent they are set in their ways. They are in trouble.

[son going to Auckland]

Erika: 
Working with geophysicist - undersea hydrodynamics. Renewable? desalinization. Near land? So far out there?

Bob: Two kinds of nuke - fission and fusion.
One flys across the sky every day - keep it 93 m miles away OR build our own here.

Big fission reactor around Earth. Without 5 bn years to cool down - would be an ice ball if it were not having radioactive decay.
We should harvest geothermal - of which yours is exotic kind - vents at bottom of ocean.
Lot of it. Distributed.
Gateway technology there is drilling.

Erika: Tech - inexpensive - surface and near surface vents.

Bob: Then cap them. To capture the heat. Run it through the exchanger.
Complication -all this ocean involved.

Erika: will boil itself as it rises.

Bob: Startup - go to existing, abandoned oil wells. Later, out comes steam and hot water. 20-30 years, open well again, generate electricity.

Erika: In TX.

Bob: Yes, easier than bottom of the ocean.

Erika: Red Sea. Juan de Fuca. Does it pass the laugh test.

Bob: Geothermal is promising. Problem it is under the ocean. Two compliations.

Alex/Romania: Ray K says, only 7 years until solar efficiency.
Jose: 7 doublings. Maybe 20 years.
Bob: What is doubling? Installed solar.Doubles every 2 years. Like Moore's law. Whatever Ray K says is fine with me. 
We have invested in 3 different companies in solar.
metcalfe@polarisventures.com
http://www.polarisventures.com/whoweare/OurTeam.asp

40 year payback for inverter that needed to be replaced due to lightning strike.

San/Korea: CSim trainedwith us. One of best talks here. You may have good opinion for policy in America. What is of the energy policy? what is bad? How make better?

Bob: Very important question. I'm not expert. Others disagree with what I say. DOE has good research program under Chu.
Flip side, notion of capturing the exernalities - very worried about - economy is very shaky. Shaky is optimistic. Burden of taxation, prices.
Increasing spending does not make me happy.
Prefer lower spending
lower taxes
so economy can lift itself up.
With economic activity we can grow our way out.
When economy flagging we cannot do much at all.

Jose: Two quick - Aladine - Masdar.

A: Solar. Among tech- space based. Design. Students might improve?
Efficiency of cars?

Try not to ask two questions? Forgotten both!
Your second question - we think silicon will be solar is done.
Negative on cadtel and more exotics.
Two silicon solar, no exotics.
One is multicrystaline. 1366 is lowering cost of mcry through manufacturing.
Other is doing mono, multi and amorphous silicon
Which form will be dominant.
Clearly dominant today is multcry
Two kinds - efficiency, cost.
Pay more for high eff to reduce cost of rest of system, the area.
Ultimately all costs.
Eff ultimately becomes cost.
Which is more important?

A: Which to target?

Eff becomes cost. Per kW/h.
Eff is one way to get there. For total system costs, as opposed to just the silicon.
A: 35 cells - cost high, eff high.

cell,
module,
system installed is the right cost to focus on 
Lower area you need.

Which cost do you mean, is the way I am answering back.
Way too short an answer.

Luke: Two things:
Get off the grid.
Packet switch energy.
If we can't use public grids, can't put 

Bob: Grasshopper. Off grid is way to get customers now. Packets is later.
Think deeply about this.

Luke: Short term? Local gen?

Bob: Yes. Avoid getting slowed down by utilities.
Get behind the meter.
Sell services

Luke: Generation right by consumption

David R: Ethanol microturbines.

Bob: Exploit energy density of fuels. Nuclear turbine would be next.

Jose: Father of internet and of Enernet. Big applause. 
3:43 [applause]
Bob Metcalfe, General Partner
bmetcalfe@polarisventures.com

Jose: Ambassadors can leave, others can stay.

Jose: Break coming at 4:15.
Have to review this morning.
Formal announcements.

Eric: Making some changes. Jim Hurd to be advisor, not leader.
Make him a resource to the group.
Important to have the dynamics be for you to set your own agenda.
Ross will be facilitator/moderator.
Any questions about that?
Salim talking to Jim today.
Jose will be managing.

Gary: Will he attend?

Eric: Not attend unless asked.

Jose: He will be here Thursday.

Juan: Happy with this. Nothing against Jim.
Emem: We'll accept you on one condition- throw a party.
Jose What I have for you is chocolate.
Toblerone.
Toronto. Really fantastic chocolates.
Several boxes of those.
Jose: The project is yours.
Luke: How not to do it.
Jose: 3 min on that.
Luke: You are really respectful of each other.
Smaller group. Dynamics were different.
Similar type A personalities. No designated leadership.
Lot of social negotiation.
Lot of really good ideas.
No advice, just go for it.
Make the most fron the opportunity.

On same team as Ross/Luke.
So impressed by you. Opening ceremony. Salim listed your accomplishments.
You guys are going to be great.
Early on groups - doing it right this year.

Alex: Last year war. This week peace.

Luke: Guinea pigs last year. Where do you start. We didn't have topics. Week 5-6. Finally tried brainstorming. Half junk. Go through. 
In first thre days, outline problem areas.
You had that right up front.
We had to commit 3 weeks before end, not 3 weeks from start.
Keep running.
Most important - each other.
Friendships will continue on- resources you didn't have before. Get to know your team.

Energy really is the most important area.
Clean water.
Food.
Outerspace.
This group the most important.

Ross- say monetarily most successful.

Emem: Ignite slides. Not to everybody, just us.
Luke: picture.
15 seconds - 1 1/2 to 2 on one slide.
Extremely difficult to do.
Really good - time for 15 seconds. Keep clicker in your pocket.

Ross: 15 slides. 35 words.
David Rose says: Never look at your slides.
Doesn't have as much value as giving really good presentation.
Give a David Rose presentation - every one from then on.
Really powerful points.

Alex: Or guy from Wired.
You learn more. Core principles are the same.
Presentation Zen.

Stock photography.
Or find them free.
Alex: There are some -
Luke: Wikipedia - all CC license.
Alex: Nice to have Getty - watermark.
Jose: Talk a few more things:
Break 4:15.
Go over things we are trying to achieve.
Team - 
all the pictures
organize room.
Still lectures Thursday.
You ask all the questions.
Get all the information you can to begin working.
After 2 weeks no more invited people. But visit Mark Jacobsen.
2 more classes.
Next week classes. Smart grid. Storage.
4000, maybe a little bit more, 5000 for building a prototype.
competing ideas.
Gary - Emem
Decide how to use that budget.
In fact, Emem could be fantastic party.
Not best use of those resources.
As Luke said, Greg mentioned. Ross says, this is going well.
Last time - 9 weeks, people jumped.
We are doing fine. Define the problem space - what are we going to solve.
This year indication - 8 T + 11 dollars. Huge. We'll not go into this 8 T.
Companies start in September.
Prototype
Later, build company.
1/3 of students moved to SV

Alex: We will not leave [laughter]

Jose: Another possiblity. Just stay here.
Met Rod, Shauna, Bently - you might move up or down here.
Some people really want to move forward.
Two people who want to 
John - I admire him. He is a machine [Emem claps]
Luke: Taking exiting technologies - getting new machines.
Electric cars - put together.
John did that with software
Jose: Marcos - also student. Do 3 weeks every year.
Started meeting last year. Anything is possible.
When Pete Worden was talking, John sent e-mail.
Then at end of talk, Pete replied, \"We should talk\" Deputy Gary MArtin.
7 am meeting. 
When I arrived at 7, 3 beautiful girls, including Adriana, San and 
Once I arrived at 7 am, John is on video teleconf with another person.

Jose: We're going to have a party at house of Gary Martin.
Next team meeting - Monday afternoon.
Post in shared agenda.

Luke: Don't miss Dean Kamen.

Jose: Know about people coming. Know what to ask them.
Homework - read bios
Gary: and make summary and mail to us

Al: Juan gave insight in how to boach subject.
Jose: Stand and present.
Al: Bob is sharing same concept. How to store it.
Working on how to design systems.
First - fly to HI in 3 weeks, 
Second - in Spain after end of Singularity.

H is best storage. Compress and put in small tanks.
Generate in hydrolysis of water.
Devised models myself, 21%.
Inventors got 60% efficiency.
Fuel cell efficiency is 45%.

1991 design shown in Australia.
Concentrated solar, tube.
One part to electricity. One part collected as heat.
Combination of heat and electricity produces H.
Plus extra for day use. Fuel cell uses H to give electricity at night.

-
Solar system
Rays during day.
When hindered by planet, uses collected heat.
Special type of materials. Material heats up. Because it is hot, emits IR.
Modified system, concentrate on special Silicon Carbide.
Rods.
Just collecting heat.
Metal stays hot.
Luke: Escaping heat 
Gallium Arsenide
Luke:Heat storage and flux
Al: Don't off the top of my head.

Striling engine.
High eff.
4:17
Jose: 10 min break.
Emem: Helps if solar collector rotates.
Which you prefer?
Al: Both.
Luke: 

4:43 Jose. Ross got us a ventilator.
UNESCO water e-mail.
Going to water team in a few minutes.
Survey - 4 parts.

4:59 John Smart:
Hidary might be good guy to talk to.
5-6 ideas. Would you be willing to support us with a research assistant.
Or other set of resources.
Something there?

Big thinker.

Emem: We qualify for the school award.

John Smart: Brainstorming on what to ask Hidary.

5:16 Jose: Dinner with Hidary.

Emem: Stone Age did not end for lack of stones.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Better_Place

Nissan Leaf.
Robot swaps battery in a minute at station.
Drive over a well at station.
Robot whips old one out.
Total time is 10 minutes.
Takes 60 seconds.
Networks in Israel. Bay Area. Having for schools - might be a big win.
Jose: You don't own the battery.
Concept of ownership

July 12-16, 2010
Science and Ethics of Biotechnology
Huntington Botanical Gardens
San Marino, CA
Contact: Carolyn Saruwatari
E-mail: cksaruwatari@sbcglobal.net
http://www.bwbiotechprogram.com/

Norway - building a H higway
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_highway
7 stations
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hynor

EarthKAM (Earth Knowledge Acquired by Middle school students) is a NASA education program which enables students, teachers and the public to learn about Earth from the unique perspective of space. Sally Ride.
https://www.sallyridescience.com/for_educators/school_programs/earthkam

Business theory commentators have used the Kobayashi Maru as an example of the need to redefine the foundation upon which a business competes\u2014changing the rules rather than playing within a rigged game\u2014as an example of successful business strategy.[4]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kobayashi_Maru

5:41 Hidary arrives
Juan: 1 billion people. Where should we focus?
Hidary: sustainable home energy
Juan: Which program to focus?
Hidary: Haven't fixed yet. Hear ideas now.
Talk about a lot of energy issues.
Dinner.
Then deeper.
Other proposals.
Al: Satellite
H: Small scale?
Al: Small. 
H: Dev or general. Scale to 1 billion people.
San: Small windmill. DIY windmill. Pinwheel. Many, many for developing countries. Not enough for factories, but enough for several entities. Good at night. Extend 3-4 hours.
H: How many on planet -
Emem: 2 bn no elect.
H: Clean water.
Emem: 2.5 bn.
H: Connection between water and energy
Small wind.
Emem: system for 10 hours in night. At affordable price.
H: What price is affordable?
Emem: $500 with credit. Better than firewood.
If don't provide up front, can pay back.
H: Unit that can produce power.
Emem: Lights, TV, computer.
H: Good.
Gary: At start - focus on dev world. Homes far from energy sources.
PV cells.
Buy for $25-90.
Without, cannot plug in washing machine.
Already exists. Other fancy thingsthat can be.
India/China - 
focus on enterprises, develop platform on ways to build themselves.
Get in with NGOs. 
Most people don't have internet access.
Library of things to build.

H: Buckets.
No power.
Lots of Brazil / Paragu / 100s of m of people. Some power during day, goes in /out.
Iran has shut down functions due to shutdowns. Bridging.
Storing. How to continue. Homework, reading.
Not black and white - intermittent - lot of people.
Bangladesh - all industries agreed to not open for week so they could watch TV.
What area to focus
Mongolia - 100,000 solar gare.
Went to visit. Can run fridge.
Some with a lot, some with none. Lot in the middle, how to smooth.

John Smart: Two kinds.
CAES
Capacitors
specifically - bus recharges at stops. Millions of charge/discharge
CAES - long term storage. 
Grab solar.
H: Storage - pumped hydro. Different from hydropower.
Also microturbines.
Small system. Take water at low level, pump up into artificial res.
Then let flow down. Closed system hydro. 1000s of installs.
Depending on where you are can be very economic.

Molton salt. CSP or CPV - combines. 8-9 hours of sun extended another 8-9 hours.

5:52 Jose: Ready. Main conference room. 

Pad for Jack Hidary is http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul14-Jack-Hidary
http://tatanano.inservices.tatamotors.com/tatamotors/

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul9-Team-Meeting
"Energy Team Meeting
7/9/2010 
Friday 
Afternoon
2:32 Jim: Separate out what is realistic pricing on-grid versus off-grid.

x Hind Ahmed
x Emem Andrew
x Marko Bitenc
x Alexandru Celac
o Gary Gautier
x John Graves
x David Hutchison
o San Ko
o Javier Mares Romero
x Juan Martinez-Barea
x Alaeddine Mokri
x Mercy Njima
o David Roberts
x Fabio Teixeira
+ Jim
+ Ross

People are happy to pay more if it is their only choice.
Running database of on-grid and off-grid solutions.

David H: What is the distinction between off-grid and on-grid?
Jim: Whether you have access to grid or not. It's not a question of the solutions or particular tech, but the problem space.
Marko: Give energy back?
Jim: Can sell back, at what price. People unhappy paying retail price, get paid wholesale when they put energy back. All part of the developed world question.
Vast amounts of the developing world - mid category.
In india, opportunity for businesses that can afford to be down off the grid.
Basically, home and community generation of energy - what could scale up rapidly - fairly open field. Still room to make a mark there. Trying to provide solutions for on-grid is tougher. We certainly don't want to rule anything out for ETIR. Something I hadn't really thought about. You can have really expensive energy in off grid - people will just use it for an hour or two and they will pay 50 - 75 cents. You'd be amazed at what people are paying for off-grid power. Working hand or foot pumps which have made a huge difference in Kenya.
Aprotech and others. http://www.aprotechcorp.com/
Won awards, San Jose tech awards.
Every year http://www.techawards.org
Joseph Cows to Kilowatts
http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/publications/africa_casestudies/kilowatts.pdf
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/11/tech-awards-2009-recognizes-cow-to-kilowatts-as-winning-eco-project.php

Share links. 
How do we in a relaxed way, find our intensity and cut to the quick. Not about quantity of action. Getting to the heart of the action. Thoughts since Monday.

Alex: Very disoriented. Expected much powerful thing from the start. Have 3/4 weeks.
Jim: My job is to not overly tell you stuff. Projects this year are not the same as last year.
Alex: Most are used to having leader. 
Jim: Also nature of team project.
Alex: Couple of discussions with Richard. 5 min. What can we do? Suggested we try for microgenerators. Split between first world - something more fance, on or in houses - a thing that we will sell from Sept/Oct/Nov (2010). Make some research for third world. Obscure technology. What is on the market. Maybe different - with supercredibility coming from NASA. This is what I think we have to do. What we are looking for. Whole universe we need to research. Any decision is better than no decision.
Jim: Job for first 3 weeks is not to make a decision.
Alex: Sent - slideshare / script. Sent 300 pages on solar energy. 
David H: Rapidshare.
Alex: Sent today. Optimistic we will find a way. Don't have any doubt.
Jim: 1000 things. Literally 500.
Alex: When we find it, know it.
Jim: Most people do not understand home energy. Grid energy is much better understood.
Jim: Keep in mind. Electricity is only 1/2. Heat and light. Transportation driven by oil. Sure gradually transitioning to driving cars on electricity, but for now, fraction of fraction that way. Whole separate way to drive transportation. Fuel cells. In general, transportation needs tend to be very different econsystem from heat/light. Motorcycles and bicycles - even buses can be community.
Keep heat/light distinct from transportation.
Quick impressions.
David H:
Also impressed by skills and connections document:
https://docs5.google.com/a/singularityu.org/document/edit?id=1fEVcqRpcIqKM8W1z7ODCEM9v6KEZLf7BpL1AxITjHy8&hl=en#

Know our space. 
On/off grid
Need zoology. Not every technology out there, but bin to put it in.
For example, solutions:
Solar / Wind / etc.
or problems:
Rural in Africa / Energy for cars
Have good idea of bins.
Jim: Certainly going back and forth between generation and who is using it and at what price.
For our problem, 1 billion people.
Will end up on off-grid side. But keep things open.
What technologies could be developed world technology that could scale up and benefit developing countries. Solar - still a time before inexpensive sheet could give significant energy. 5-7 years away.
Home Hydrogen generation. Could scale up a long time from now. Watch out for whole H economy.
Good to do what you are saying in terms of looking at which users.
Sometimes a good diagram, draw visuals. The brain software. Here are users on one side, generation on the other. Which links go to which.
Energy tends to be complicated so visualizations could help.
David H: In order to do that, before this meeting is out, have a good structure to plan, hit ETIR. Who researches what by what date. 5 days before date start writing. 2 days before. 12 hours before.
- what i would like to see is a structured, deadlined plan to attack this great unknown of knowledge (ready for the first small milestone which is the ETIR version 0.1 in two weeks)
- figure out the categories in problem space and solution space 
- who researches what to research by when
- meet and teach each other what we have researched
- five days before deadline, start writing report
- two days before deadline, big meeting to criticize report
- send it in 12 hours before deadline
... or something like that. Just some clear view of how to get to the milestones we need to get to.
Jim: Great Ross can be with us today. Jose is back with Ray at WFS.
Thanks Ross. Try for half hour ....
Ross: If Gary is back. Team building exercise.
David H: Doing something at the start of each meeting, in terms of regular thing.
Jim: I didn't want to do it that way - Dive into where we are going.
I'm back in DC from Sun to Wed. We have two sessions 
Tony Seva Monday
Margaret Garison
Eric Wessoff Thurs morning. Famous - Clint Wilder on steroids with an edge on him. Big writer on Cleantech.

[Jose wrote: \"Mark Jacobson is a good friend from Stanford and an international expert on all types of renewable energy\" coming Monday]

Juan: Huge field. Easy to get lost in the mountains. Building on what David has just said. Concrete definition of problem/users.
Jim: Working on report. Brainstorming. Clarifying on vs off-grid. We are supposed to be lost a little. We're supposed to be researching. Balance between getting lost a little. 
Energy is massive. Covers so much gound. Visualize clearly - different buckets. Will do diagramming. Use today to brainstorm about objectives over next 14 days. 3 hours today.
Wanted initial feedback/reactions. Then focus one at a time.
What do we want ETIR to try to cover.
Juan: Discussed with team. When you create. Bad idea to focus on technology. Must look ...
Emem: Eric sent an outline of what ETIR is supposed to be:
-------------------------
ETIR high-level outline

1. Executive Summary
(we suggest you write this after the rest of the report)

2. Scope of the report
A statement of the Grand Challenge and the scope of the Team Project

3. State of the Problem Space
\u2022 Short description of the entire Problem Space
\u2022 Detailed description of the aspects of the problem being addressed (different parts of the problem being examined)
\u2022 Current state of the art of technology and other solutions within the detailed problem being addressed
\u2022 Summary list of the exponential technology subject areas (a short list of what you considered, based on the SU tracks, for example)
\u2022 Definitions used to classify or label the opportunities (what 'near term' vs 'long term' means, etc)

4. Exponential Technology Opportunities Within the Detailed Problem Space
For each opportunity you choose to describe:
\u2022 assess the current state of the technology
\u2022 identify companies, researchers, etc working in this area, with links and references
\u2022 make an estimate of the potential benefit of this technology
\u2022 estimate if this is near term or longer term, or other labels to measure the opportunity
\u2022 identify if there is a convergence (or mutual benefit) from other technologies
\u2022 identify potential barriers to the development or adoption of this technology
\u2022 identify significant bottlenecks in technology, process, law, policy, regulation, and approaches and potential solutions to these bottlenecks (this detailed assessment would be applied to opportunities you chose to highlight)

Note that some opportunities can have more detail than others

Capture all relevant references and source notes (as you find them) to aid in the examination of alternatives later

-------------------------
The minimum for the ETIR Outline (version 0.1) due July 23, would include:
- (item 3) A description of the problem being addressed, including a list of short statements that describe aspects of the problem
- (item 4) A preliminary list of the Exponential Technology Opportunities that will be addressed in the ETIR (it can be expanded/revised)

Jim: How much time to spend on each section of ETIR?
Notice I sent small wind, even if not much of an opportunity.
Just a catalyst. I'll have opinions, but those can change.
David H: We need to narrow eventually. Look at 5-10 problem spaces. Not 100. Not 1.
Jim: Not limit to 5-10, but we can check.
Mercy: From Monday, first thing I realized - Home Generation. Thought before it was Energy generally. First thing I thought we should be doing is off-grid. Community by themselves. Most seen are expensive. 
Jim: Challenge - with HOME as first word - several billion with NO access to power. Don't create a new fusion thing. Come up with something that can help off-grid. For ETIR, my preference is to weight off-grid.
Mercy: On grid already controlled by governments.
Jim: 
Emem:Situations in different countries:
\u00b7 Country Situation
New Zealand \u2013 Countries of \u2018hippies\u2019 very concerned about the environment. Less energy hungry than USA but generate some energy but is a net importer of oil and gas energy. Completely against nuclear energy bc of environmental concerns.
Slovania \u2013 Variety of plants \u2013 hydo bc of rivers, 1 nuclear, some hydo plants and some photovoltaic
Korea- Pro nuclear. Exporting nuclear plants in Arab emirates and turkey. Govt interested in green growth but not started yet. Every energy in Korea imported from other countries; oil, gas and uranium. Next decade will see growth in green energy.
Spain \u2013 Energy dependent have 3 nuclear stations, imports from other countries. Spain against nuclear stations. Green energy is pro. Has solar energy and quick start has a lot of thermal solar plants. Rated 3rd in the world. Also have a good installed base of wind. The No. 1 wind energy producing company in the world is in Spain. More dependent on Germany and China for technology.
Sudan: 87% of its energy needs with biomass, oil supplies 12% the remaining 1% are produced from hydro and thermal power, we now have oil we export to China, Japan Indonesia India crude oil and petroleum but due to the conflict in Sudan it has never had a real impact on people life especially in the rural area where 70% live there, renewable energy technologies such as solar, wind, etc would be a very good solution since there are local resources.

Kenya \u2013 Net importer of energy. Most of the energy comes from hydrothermal, solar and wind but not on a large scale. Most people do not have electricity but capital cities are on grid. Approximate number of people off the grid is in excess of 50%.
Nigeria: - Primary source of power is private petrol or diesel powered generators. Some hydro electric power, gas plants but there is problem of distribution. Nigeria is a net exporter of energy.

Emem: Wide application in Africa.
Jim: Backup power, should look at that. Not just energy that is team project. Understand ecosystems of energy - continent by continent. They tend to change a bit.
Alaeddine: Technical guys and business guys have different perspectives.
Look for customers - this is the way to approach it.
Report is not the main target. Just ideas.
Jim: Report can focus on WHERE is the need. Can focus on more than just technology.
Fabio: That's what A said.
A: If someone has technical suggestion, 
Jim: \"Impact\" is important. Organize by technology. But each technology you don't understand the impact without context.
Alex: 
A: Need objective.
Jim: Organize by technology. Each needs clear usage/ impact.
Jim: Not to determinewhich project we do.
Understand ecosystem.
DH: Excited to narrow down. But we can take a couple weeks.
A: have been in the field 3 years - it is huge.
Jim: I know how huge. It is about clarity of perception. If we organize well.
Calmly understanding the major differences and not getting lost in the weeds.
A: Grid potential in the future?
Jim: We could do that in half a day. Taking today to go over. Called Exponential Technology Initial Report (ETIR), so my take is to list by technology.
Then breakdown, solar, breakdowns in between.
Naming technology is only first step in who used it and where.
Keep thing circulating - 
Recycle Casava Been Waste.
Only Energy prposal.
Find where real usage / real projects that have been successful.
Will be at World Bank, meeting with Kate and some friends.
Fried did projects in Kenya and Ghana. 
We have time and brain power.
Who is using jatropa, solar, at what price. We'll see where.
Boot camp for Santa Clara University.
25 Social Entrepreneurs. 2 weeks of classes. 
On 27th, close to whn we finish. Might be good to visit.

As a group we can brainstorm and gradually zero in.
Use collective insight.

Hind: Most agree - define programs / market.
Look on grid/off grid.
Started studying country situation.
We extend to the whole developing countries. 

Jim: Unless you know what is already being used, you won't make progress. 
Things take time. What is being tried?

Find - in last 20 min - brainstorm for hour or two first.
We'll start it between now and the next session.
Other thing: howdo you envision - color coded?

Emem: We get stuff - 6 months stuffed into our brains in 2 weeks.
If we can split up. Do it in one week.
Jim: Need process to share knowledge.
Can we use etherpad?
Can we see who is adding which piece in. Critique - give feedback.

Emem: Can use Word, Etherpad.
Jim: Hold on. Let's calmly think out mechanism for sharing our collective knowledge where a few people will have to edit.
David H:
Specific idea, #1.
Google spreadsheet - brainstorm on whiteboard.
5 on technology
5 on problem space

Solar
then solar thermal
then enter every single line from board onto spreadsheet with name beside it
After each meeting report on what found.

Jim: Good starting point. But let's not make up mind right away.
How would that morph into document?

DH: We spend time - just 2 meeting per week.
Jim: This week 2, then 3, then 4, then every day.
DH: Days we are not meeting we could meet for an hour, even on weekends.
Spend 4-5 meetings exploring problem spaces, refining that.
List of 50 areas then meet to specifically form document.
Jim: Massive amounts of stuff. We don't need to decide today, but intelligent about planning that in next 1-3 sessions.
Understand that you can get lost in research in one arcane area. Help each other to constructively - avoid getting lost in the weeds.
Look at each other's research while going along on-line.
Mercy: Wave?
DH: Say 10 things to research each. 5 meetings to research and present.
Won't get hung up on one. Will get through everything.
Jim: Will be massive - build in flexibility to process. Adjust collective and individual knowledge as we go along.
Emem: can we do it as prototype.
Jim: Original thing, we have not had feedback from around room.
Think of meat we aim to accomplish.
Marko: Suggestions:
Lot of problems. Meetings should be productive. This one is not.
Jim: Until they take me out, flexible, intelligently, not fast decisions. I have certain things important to do. If you don't like way I'm running it. Carefully thought out.
Marko: Basically I suggest, mail how report looks like. Just sent from Eric.
Ross: Every person you've interrupted so far ...
Jim: You just did it to me.
Ross: Address at end. 
Jim: It never gets addressed.
Ross: How can you let someone talk if ...
DH: Yeah, 
Jim: Important to address or not. Making notes. Coming to understanding on things. If you decide you don't want me to run ...
Ross: If we had a moderator ...
Jim: I'm the moderator.
Ross: If someone is trying to speak, they have to get their thoughts out.
How many people are shaking their heads. Might be good idea to let people to get thoughts out.
Jim: My style is to respond.
Marko: You didn't know what I said.
Jim: Are we talking about anything important in here. That is what should count.
Marko: We've lost 10 min.
3:31
Marko: We have idea of what report should look like. Then make graph. Then have orderly way. Everybody see what everybody is doing for next 2 months. Design it today. Otherwise ...
Jim: What do you think we are doing today. That's what we are here for.
Emem: Can you do a short presentation on how to proceed?
Jim: Done it already.
Emem: When you present again. I don't understand ..
Jim: I don't know what you are talking about.
What I have said today . I have e-mailed some things. How do we create a good ETIR. In my opinion, we need a way to be able to share collaboratively, otherwise it will be a mess that will take a lot of editing. 
We need to understand the ecosystems.
one is on grid / off grid. 
Point today is to start to research.
Start on ETIR
How to share this information.
Emem: Any other ecosystem to look at?
Jim: No rush here. We don't need to rush. I am the moderator. Not my decision or your decision. The point here is to talk.
Emem: Do you have alist? 
Jim: Many overlapping ecosystems. We'll try to understand.
Alex: First 2 hours, everybody has to talk.
DH: so excited to jump into it.
Jim: Haven't had a chance to do yet - chance to talk about skills, ideas. That is the next thing: assignment from Monday.
Alex: Matter of communication here. Try not to give negative feedback. Say \"not productive\" Start with relaxation, say what you wanted to say in constructive way.
Jim: Like jazz music, improvising together.
John Graves: Haven't had a chance to review all the materials you sent yet. My focus has been on the tools, and moving things that came thru on email into our wiki page. We have wiki pages and the etherpads. 
Jim: I read the last etherpads. There are certain things on the last pad I didn't necessarily want named. You can say to JG \"This is an off-the-record comment.\" This info might come back later. You need to understand the + and - of every quote you have on the internet.
John: There are other tools we might use. Mind mapping tools. \"The Brain\" software is like that and is free.
http://www.thebrain.com/

Jim: Ether try to hard or try to little Wanted to hear what you had to say. At some point I have to make decisions about how to run a meeting that gets somethings done. Let's share information and respect the group. Shouldn't act until the majority of the group says to act on it.
Fabio: Most said already. Feeling for how team feels. Tech guy. No clue what to do. Not a business guy. Light at end of the tunnel would be more comfortable. Have a few concerns: seems first steps are research. - are we going to address what to research.
Jim: Will talk about that today
F: Avoid researching same things.
Jim: We have 7 weeks. 30 sessions. We have to have ETIR in 15 sessions. We can have a little bit of waste and refine as we go forward.
Energy is like an elephant. 
Beyond one person's comprehension.
Collaborate, gentle process. If not gentle here, will have minus, not plus effects.
The start is to create environment where we are sharing feedback.
Heard initial feedback.
Thing is, even this is ... you have to understand too, this is a process of discovery. NOT this report has to cover XYZ within energy.Two steps. ETIR then team project.
How can we do a good ETIR. Generalist function.
I think we've been at it now, hour and a quarter.
Let's talk about skills.
Alex: First, two suggestions. Understand what happened. Expectations.
First minutes of meeting when we will talk about this, second part this. If not sure how meeting will be, become anxious. Clarify what we will discuss today, will see improvements very quick.
Matter of attention here. Everybody have laptops open. Cannot have attention to what you are saying and have listen.
Jim: Anything on computer, be notes about this.
Mercy: All looking at Etherpad.
Alex: From 50 countries here. Other countries, conflicted. Emem wants to beat us all. We have to find - some smiles.
[Emem laughs]
Fabio: no laughing. 
Alex: Not a war here.
Jim: Goaround room,talk about skills. From past. Not directly related to this.
Alex: Allocate time- 2 min. 10s of books about meeting. We are 10 people - then 10 hours of speaking. Efficient - invest 10 hours, gain 1 hour.
Jim: 2-3 min max.
Emem: Document already. Put on projector? Read it out?
Alex: Maybe say more.
Mercy: Already spent time. Already done.
Hind: Can you open:

Energy Team: Skills and Connections Repository
Please write your name followed by a bulleted list. First is a list of Skills, then scroll down to see the list of Connections.

SKILLS: Please write particular skills you have
David Hutchison
*Physics background (particularly nanoscale experimental, computational (especially MATLAB and COMSOL), and some hands-on electronics knowledge)-- B.Sc. in 2008 and now pursuing Ph.D.
*2D and 3D CAD drawing + artistic sense
*I consider myself a good powerpoint slide maker. It bugs me when I see bad powerpoint slides that are cluttered, unhelpful, not aesthetically pleasing, and it is my mission to rid the world of awful slides!

Studied Physics, in EE dept. Experience with MATLAB, coding computational things. COMSOL software. 2 and 3D CAD drawing. Makes good PowerPoints - had classes. Bugs me when PowerPoint has too many words or comicsans font. That is the worst.

Jim: 2-3 min per person. When you were a kid.
Played clarinet,guitar (classical), bit of piano. Sang in choirs.
Undergrad big men's chorus.
Jim: as a kid
Liked making things. Balsa wood planes. Machines and things.
Jim: Great.

John Graves
*Finance (MBA)
*Statistics (SAS, Excel)
*Programming (Python)
*Presentation - I\u2019ve had some coaching in question answering and voice (singing). I also know how to create those flowing Prezi presentations and make YouTube videos.
*Systems - managing things like Etherpad

Jim: Edison - Menlo Park
Marko: We should play tennis.
John: You bet.

Emem Andrew
*Electrical Engineering (BSc)
*Oil & Gas Management (MSc)
*Certified Project Management Professional - pmp
*10 years experience in upstream Oil & Gas company
*Presentation Skills - Extensive training in communications 
*Stakeholder Engagement - skilled in defining stakeholders needs and facilitating interfaces between stakeholders.
*Micro-finance - Currently running a cooperative women based micro-finance company in Nigeria

Emem: 1st of 8 kids. Spent lots of time taking care of kids.
Have 2 kids.
Jim: what else when you were very young. Either doctor or engineer.

Hind Ahmed
*Physics and Mathematics background ( B.Sc and M.Sc in experimental solid sate physics, PGD in mathematics)
*Familiar with some mathematics and physics software like , XRUMP, ANSYS, XGENPLOT, LaTex
*Micro Electromechanical Systems (M.Sc)

Hind: Backgound in Physics and Math. Solid state physics. Familiar with software. MEMS master.
Jim: What is it you do?
Hind: General Masters level courses. Micromachines.

Mercy Njima
*Mathematics and Computer Science background (currently using logics to verify software systems)
*Accounting/Finance (Certified Public Accountant training)
*Professional document preparation and presentation using LATEX
*Programming (Haskel, abit of Python)
*NGO management, workshop and conference organization 

Mercy: Studies mathematics for bachelors and masters. PhD in CS.
Using logic to verify software systems. Studied to be CPA. Acct and finance background. LATEX - presentation tool. Can program in Haskel and Python.
Jim: As a kid?
Mercy: Breaking up stuff. 1st of 5 kids. Dad very handy. He needed extra hands. Once in school, fridge broke. Came from school and I fixed it.
Jim: What part did you help with?
Mercy: I just pulled off the back. Mostly, not fixed, broke things.

Alexandru Celac
*Faculty of Public Relation and Communication - David Ogilvy
*Faculty of Law
*I know how to make VIDEOS http://video214.com/play/C42jXqjbADu5wgyI1xE4zg/s/dark
*leadership and training backround
*sales skills
*real estate backround (7years)

Involved only in teams. Mother had idea to send to musicalband. From 5 years on involved in extra-school activities in teams. Used to teamwork. Mother a teacher. Lots of reading. I sing. 4 years, leader of band - tournaments, concerts. Used to lots of people around me.
Background in Law. Bachelor degree. Second in administrative studies, PR and communication. 7 years in real estate. Investor. Had a compnay. 4 years before in NGO - vp in largest youth organization in Romania.
I think if you want to ask me anything else?
Jim: Liked as a kid?
Readking. Singing. Listening to music.

Alaeddine Mokri
*Engineer in Mechanical Engineering (Speciality: Energetics).
*Graduate Student and Research Assistant working on Solar Energy.
*I designed several systems for converting sunlight into electricity and hydrogen.
*I designed thermal systems: green buildings, solar collectors, solar water heaters...etc.
*Authored several scientific papers in the field of solar energy.
*I do computer programming, CFD modeling, CAD modeling, Web Design.
*Speak English, French, Arabic.

A: French only degree in Energetics. Full scholarship to Masdar. Extensive work in solar. Through studies, convert produce H. Solar water heaters. Etc. Gathered 80 programs - virtual calculation center.
CAD modeling.
Jim: As kid, under 10?
A: Used to read a lot. At age 12, maid stole from the library the biography of Edison. Changed my life. Used to collect sayings.
Jim: Great. Thanks.

Juan Martinez-Barea
*Background in Industrial Engineering (MS) and Business Administration (MBA)
*Wide hands-on experience in technological entrepreneurship (launched and managed a high-tech start-up incubator)
*Wide managerial experience in the triangle: Business-Government-Social Organizations
*Business plan design
*Strategic planning
*Teaching (I am a business school professor)

Masters in Industrial Eng.
MBA fom MIT
Launched 12 yrs ago high tech incubator
Come from less developed region - andulusia
Need more innovation.
Working there with hundreds of start ups. Trying to tranform into high growth.
Triangle of Social / Business / Government.
In Social sector also launched 3 years ago, identify young leaders. Get them to study around the world.
Responsible for innovation in the government.
Jim: End July. Jerome Glenn. Jose works with Jerry. 5 years ago - trying to get legalized combination of Govt agency/NGO/corporation. Seeing these hybridizations.
Juan: Since I am in the govt, tryihng to bring the business way of thinking to the government. When we launch new initiatives, we try to make private. Foundation that business people manage.
CONNECTIONS: Please list connections with people or companies that might help

David Hutchison
*Good friends with CEO and CTO of emPower playgrounds (they were friends from undergrad university). This company uses mostly local resources to make a merry-go-round for rural schools in Africa (especially Ghana), which powers batteries that provide light inside the classroom. They may have expertise with social engineering and also in how to use local materials and create economically sustainable local businesses.
*I\u2019m at Cornell, which is totally into energy so I have access to lots of professors who are interested in this, many of whom are listed here: http://www.geo.cornell.edu/eas/energy/alphabetical_list_college_o.html
*Friends with Geoff Whitcher, in charge of \u201cSpark\u201d which is an entrepreneurial incubator / VC in New Zealand. Through him we have access to similar groups, mostly in New Zealand and Australia but also in the US.
*My brother in law manages and works with largest wind farms in New Zealand.
*My brother went to GSP09. I thought we might be able to tap other GSP09 students for help and resources, if there were GSP09 students that are still interested in energy (which I\u2019m sure there are!)

John Graves
*Know owner of Thermosash (http://www.thermosash.co.nz/) in Auckland, New Zealand: David Hayes. Thermosash makes commercial building facades out of glass and has particular expertise in solar flux.
*Classmate of Mike Nelson (http://www.asis.org/Chapters/asispvc/michaelnelsonbio.html) at Caltech, former advisor to Al Gore. Policy wonk.
*Sister is City Attorney for Providence, RI with many contacts in public sector, especially around brownfield development (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brownfield_land)
*Brother is Director of Old Town School of Folk Music (http://oldtownschool.org/) in Chicago, IL with many connections to performing artists who might be willing to contribute their names or music towards publicity.

Emem Andrew
*Access to NGO in Nigeria
*Access to government and engineering professional groups in Nigeria and diaspora organisations.
*Possible interfaces with other African countries

Hind Ahmed
*I have an experience working in local community and rural area in Sudan, South Africa.
*I work at AIMS ( the African Institute for Mathematical Sciences ) is a centre for education and research in South Africa. AIMS is very well connected to most African universities as well to many research centres in Africa. 
*Access to some NGO and local organisations in Sudan.

Mercy Njima
*Former colleagues and friends working in universities, Ministry of Energy and energy companies in Kenya
*Access to NGO\u2019s and local organizations in Kenya with partnerships with the UN Nairobi office
*Access to the AIMS alumni spread around Africa 

Alexandru Celac
*possible Romanian government connections in energy field

Alaeddine Mokri
*I am based in Masdar, the host for the International Renewable Energy Agency, and the first institution dedicated completely to renewable energy in the world, where everybody is doing research on renewable energy topics.
*I know some experts and activists in the field of Solar Energy. 

Juan Martinez-Barea
*I work for the Innovation Ministry of the Spanish Government, where I can access different departments
*Contacts with CEO of Spanish energy companies like Abengoa, Gamesa, Ayesa, Inerco and Iberdrola
*Good friends with CEO of Spanish energy startups like GreenPower
*Good friends with CEO of MIT Entrepreneurship Center, MIT $100K and MIT Clean Energy Prize

Fabio
Bachelors in 
Degree in electronic.
Programming Arduino
Design small circuits.
PCB - plates where components goes on
Brazilian company. Language learning for 10 years creating a new device.
Degree on software.
Java / Oracle / SQL
Some software
Jim: As a kid?
Up until 10, pretty much normal. Go into neighborhoods, anything broke?
Parents complained about whole bunch of TVs, radios, looked inside. How to fix it.

Marko
Also doing this. Didn't understand what I was doing.
Molecular biotech
Worked on HIV at MIT
2007 first company - genetic testing
Started preparing business plan
Jim:Where?
Slovenia
Started from scientific point of view - economy and business.
How to talk to VCs.
2008 funding
8 employees. Growing more each year.
International investment
Want to do something else also
In life, biofuels a couple of months.
Why here - I think, first in Water, still deciding - would like to have big scope of energy. See trends. your question - as a kid - destroying radios. Football, regular kid.

Jim: Skills that I like to use. Then a break.
Normal kid. liked sports. Making music. Getting into trouble.
Not doing what I was told to do.Certain people don't like being told. They find their own way.
Around 15, started getting into arts. School in DC. Lived in India.
Lived with Navaho medicine man. Got excited about studying.
Motivated. 
Fun to enjoy learning.
Mohandas Ghandi - 
Was a hindu monk in SF for 1-1/2 years.
Went to George Washington U.
Paralegal
Art 
In 30's interested in politics. Mid-level Clinton administration.
Hated it before
Brother, since he was 23, has worked in Africa. 
Save the Children
RNDP
Cartoom?
Sister to Palestine in 71
Help with rights issues. 
Sort of guy, when R.B.Fuller said he was \"comprehensivist\"
More and more as singularity starts to approach - people who can be brilliant generalists, results oriented, can do things specialists can't do.
I'm an \"inclusiveist\" Take my time. Think out loud. Happy to be proven wrong.
Synergyies. 1+1 =
Alex: Eleven.
Jim: Talking about net effect.
Look at new issue of Esquire The Impossible. Bi on the light side - how everything we thought impossible is not impossilbe.
4:18 Break.
My suggestion is that we can each do our own thing for a little while. Share what you are doing. Each person take a week to define the landscape as they see it. Compare landscapes. Compare different ecosystems of energy. We may have a lot, or just a little difference.
Be philosophical, a bit artistic. Have a little fun. Not get too defined. We'll have plenty of time to get defined in the second week.
Back Thursday morning. Jose will pick up the ball.
The more wecan improvise and share perspectives, the more we will come out with a document that weill surprise us.
We are trying to define the elephant now. Magical. Requires both intuitive and linear thinking.
Thoughts from my perspective. Come back and discuss.
Alex: What will happen after break?
Jim: Approach I just said. What do people think. How do people here see as a good way to proceed so that we gradually get where we need to be.
First generalists. ETIR, not a technical discussion but where being used, price, what are opportunties.
Almost a month - 3-1/2 weeks before final ETIR has to be done. 
DH: Break. 15.
Jim: 12 min. [5 on pad]

x Hind Ahmed
x Emem Andrew
Marko Bitenc
x Alexandru Celac
x Gary Gautier
x John Graves
x David Hutchison
o San Ko
o Javier Mares Romero
x Juan Martinez-Barea
x Alaeddine Mokri
x Mercy Njima
o David Roberts
x Fabio Teixeira
+ Jim
+ Ross

4:39 Jim: Take last hour to discuss how we want to go about using our time the next 1,2,3,4 weeks. I'm making a suggestion, but it is a group process. Make group decision about how to proceed. Go slow, give it one or two minutes. How Monday went, how things went this week. Also sharing about process - how to move forward. Fair amount - update Gary ...
Mercy: our skills.
Jim: Let's wait a minute and a half. You can talk.
Energy is massive, complicated area.
On and off grid.
Also, I was saying transport vs heat/light in home.
In US, primarily oil. Electricity for coal.
Only import oil for transportation.
Whole area of natural gas - price low right now.
Effecting everything else. In China 2-1/2 weeks ago. 
Company in So Cal planning to 
Company in China working in Alabama to create natural gas cars.
Quite a challenge to understand some of it.
4:43
We've waited enough. Gary, why don't you talk about skills. Rather than resume.
Gary: Consider myself very creative. Always been thinking since I was very very young, come up with great solution that would be implemented worldwide. Keen on getting in touch with people. Love having relations. Get in touch with new people, have easy friendships.
Jim: What did you like as a kid?
Mostly playing sports.
Hind: Playing soccer?
Gary: Twisted ankles 40 times each.
Jim: That's good. Rough idea.
Worked with a man - guy who developed motivated skills - good at but hate to use. What color is your parachute. Benjamin Disraeli - most people die never having heard the music inside them. Your life becomes more inspiring if you do what you love and miserable if you do things you hate.
Gary: Saying in spanish,
the goal of life is to 
combertia 
Your work has to become your hobby.
Only way to go further.
You must find the things you are passionate about and go for it to get the best out of your time.
Jim: Guy, age 12. Went on bicycle asking whatdo you do.
halding
People
1 in 20 said, I do this, not enough time in day.
In 1945, he moved to US. Wrote for FDR. In charge of putting US soldiers back to work in jobs that would last more than a few months.
Died, age 95, motivated skills.
Did some software with him.
Guy who could come in. Dick Knowdell. Orignially doing career development at LivermoreLabs. Understand skills you are very good at doing, but hate. Others you are very good at and enjoy.
You might enjoy this card sort Dick created 40 years ago.
People raise their hands.
Need to be creating fairly comprehensive. Name technology. A few sentences on where it might go to. Main thing, where used, at what price, are there big opportunities for growth. 
Energy people tend to be risk averse.
Energy can be tricky.
Home use of energy. 
Slowness of new adoption.
Anyone who has been an entrepreneur - wonderful solution, but takes years to get up and running. Kicks in and hits exponential.
Let's share.
DH: Going to say, rather than each do overview. Specialize. Overview as a brainstorm. In column A - all the brainstorm items. In column B - our names, perhaps 10 topics each.
There are 11 of us. Half problem spaces - how used, which people. Solution spaces could be things out there.
Divide ourselves. list down. Assign to a person.
Gary: 2 weeks for research.
Jim: Rough draft in about 3 weeks.
Emem: First draft due in 2 weeks.
Gary: How developed?
10 slides? 1000 slides?
We can keep doing the research, but don't have to have output. Write it down.
Jim: Not to get lost in details. Trying to evaluate technologies - more important, where successful. Where using technologies.
Many different places, home generation. Lot of work to find failures and successes.
Can't just say, no body ever tired so it will be useful.
Find where it is working and do something alongside it.
DH: Need only a few things for ETIR 0.1
Eric: Explain what I meant by that. High level outline
What I was looking for in the 2 weeks.
[4:56 Memodisplayed]
Analogy for you.
Other groups picking a solution right away.
How to win world cup. Kick ball in goal and win.
Need, from ETIR, what goal is.
Need to find problem space. Knowing what the goal is.
Jim: Our challenge is home and community generation.
Eric: As a group you get to pick your target.
Jim: You don't mind if we narrow scope down.
Eric: Value in a comprehensive one.
Value in report that covers this broader space.
Part of value in identifying opportunities is to describe problem space. Narrow that. Then address that.
Whole other report on transportation energy.
Manage just the problem you are concerned with.
Jim: Sorry to interrupt. I'm away 2 days next week.
Clarifying off and on grid. Much more need for off-grid things to happen.
Pricing can be so much higher. Use smaller amounts.
Eric: Potential for defining scope.
If you decide as a group that off grid is where to focus.
Make available through exponential technologies.
Gary: 
Eric: Within the group you can choose to scope the problem.
In my football analogy. Technologies are your teammates.
Either going for solution or other opportunites where other players may have a better shot at the goal.
Define the problem with 4 or 10 statements. Different aspects of the problem: 

off grid
developing world
different aspects

Subject areas. Give you opportunites to brainstorm. You know technologies are out there, but may be changing. Does biotech help? new sensors? wireless or networks? Anything in lectures, something may have changed from a year or two ago? 

If you find these areas - take lighting. Maybe bioluminescent lantern - one opportunity - either a few lines, or more detail.
[Juan has question 5:03]
Tha is the due diligence.
Jim: One thing explaining to people. Start with list of technologies, ask where adopted, price. That is the impact side.
Eric: What companies have it. Current price points. Idea, if you - one term in hockey - skate to where the puck will be.
Maybe some smart phone sensor, in a few years will be practical.
Solar arrays - we can project will be useful, practical - thin film.
Look out a few years. That is the 5-10 year opportunities. Start now on some project that will then trigger and be ready.
Juan: Given that we have to choose problem, when is it good to have clear definition of problem?
Eric: Good to think of that in this 2 week period.
I think you can refine/change this later. It is really at the point you have a plan, at end of ETIR you will have settled on statement.
Good to have
\"We have chosen to look at off the grid ....\"
or whatever you have chosen along with attributes.
Mention list of technologies - 15/20 that may be applicable.
Develop farther.
Snap shot of where you are going.
DH: Just now describing problem being addressed. 
Short description of broad problem space.
Eric: Follow thinking - access to energy is a grand challenge,
then residential energy
then off gird or smart gird....
What is important? Off grid energy be zero emission? If you give everybody a diesel generator, would that help?
Need to be able to say:
1 which problem we addressed
2 what it would do to help people
Gary: We should look at benchmarking. 
All the things we want to work on.
Try to identify as much as we can - 
which industries in which countries.
Risks they are facing. Then matrix.
All problems related with water....
What we can see is this map.
Julio: Designed this thing right now.
Diagram of technologies and needs.
Gary: brainstorm, then distribute. Can just be an Excel spreadsheet.
Jim: Energy is massive. All our best efforts will be just skimming the surface.
Not confident we are going to have a comprehensive understanding.
Trying to spot technology and opportunities, you'll be skimming the surface.
If you really tried to understand.
The devil is in the details. 
Every time I''veseen it before. Trouble on agreeing on details.
So many possible ways of looking at it.
Frame of reference: don't expect to be comprehensive.
Do bestwe can. Develop as much as we can.
Don't assume it isgoing to be easy as we get into thtese details.
Marko: We can jump - do market research.
Eric: Unique to SU - where exponential technologies can make a change.
Assumptions of this works/ this doesnt. 
what will change parameters
Ross: Good ideas that finally explode were tried for 20 years, but once something fits, it takes off.
Jim: Somehing already being adopted in small version. Amazing thingsbeing developed. People don't like implementing them.
People from World Bank say, \"Is this real?\"
Be a little careful on ....
Eric: Blue Sky ideas. My magic pump will solve everything.
Jim: Bring blue sky idea in behind something.
If something can screw up in Energy, it will.
Understand from a viral point of view. Where have things come togeher
Sabir creation of hotmail. Never spent a penny on advertising.
Look where viral adoption, walking to next village saying \"You've got to try this.\"
Eric: If you really do want to address residential. 
This amount of power.
Here is this technology - almost ready, but needs this change.
If really wide/broad, difficult to cover all waterfront.
Alex: Can we outsource this
[laughter]
Emem: Pay for Facebook ad.
5:25 Ardvark question debate.
5:35 Can Skype in. Next meeting Monday. Saturday - energy track has three presentations.

Jim: Away 4 days. Sending e-mail.
Send questions into Ardvark.
How to share information now?
How to access it?
__ Somebody send me a link I can click on.
__ Meeting on Sunday

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul23-Team-Meeting
"Friday
7/24/2010
2:45 pm
Energy Team Meeting

Alaeddine Mokri
Alexandru Celac
Emem Andrew
Fabio Teixeira
Gary Gautier
Hind Ahmed
John Graves
Juan Martinez-Barea
Marko Bitenc
Mercy Njima
San Ko
Ross Shott
Jose Cordeiro

2:50 Gary: Forget about doing nice document until the very end.
Different versions of Excel, Mac and PC. Formats will be messed up.
Do shitty documents, very rich in content until last one.
Don't lose hours in between.

Emem: Approach we did was very good.
What you have produced was not very different in content. 
To me, it is better.
Had to prove what you wrote.
Instead of 10 people working at the same time.

Gary: I'm criticizing myself.
Only ones who did fancy document were Fabio and I.
We did it.
Do in black and white - put numbers.

Emem: This thing is going to last forever.

Gary: But every time you change it.
Once you finish it, I'm the first interested in making it fancy.

Jose: Work on-line.
Emem: On documents page.
Send links.
Gary: Word? Instead of on Google docs?
Juan: In order to do it quickly. I sent it.
Gary: Be careful - teams are good idea.
Save work with other names. If erase something valid.
Marko: We made this mistake.
Alex: EverNote.

Jose: Also - upload into portal. Those can be modified.
Marko: Why I like Google docs - you can see it in real time.
Open Office is not an option.
Need just one document.
Word is you want words.
Gary: Google docs and spreadsheets.

Jose: Wiki format is also good. You can see who made changes.
You can see previous versions.
Gary: 
JG: 
Marko: Everything in one place.
Gary: One spreadsheet. One Google doc.
Emem: I will upload to Google docs now.
2:58
Marko: Not include all technologies ... add what is relevant to this field. But not applicable to home generation.
Juan: I took all the information sent. And John's e-mail. Like nanotech, space solar, addressing the homes in Africa - what are we doing speaking about these?
We can say, only address which are relevant.
Gary: Any compulsory option?
Jose: Other teams are doing that.
Just list technologies as originally suggested.
3 gorges dam is not applicable to home energy.
Hind: Later, say not applicable.
Emem: Keep it in view in case someone else has to work on this.
10 years. Some technology may not arrive for 5 years.
Keep possibility open.
Hind: Put everything for now.
As going for final draft, say \"dropping\" to focus.
Jose: Ross?
Ross: Time spent discussing - just leave it there.
Having nothing is a potential gap. Having more than you need is not a problem.
Stop spending time discussing.
Jose: Appendices. Usually refs as footnotes.
Juan: In order to take advantage - agree on definition of the problem.
Everyone agrees, properly defined.

Alex: Discuss.
Jose: Alex - go. Read it.
Alex: \"The problem addressed is the lack of continuous, reliable, inexpensive and clean flow of electricity for all the population in the developing world.\"
Ross: Write it as a positive statement.
Are you only specifically focused on the developing world? Not rural areas of developed world?
Alex: \"all the population\" - just one person not having it? Say for vast majority ...
Marko: For the population is OK.
Alex: More powerful if we say, \"vast majority\"
3:08
Alex: Fix on paper.
Gary: If write on paper, then we have to wait.
Mercy: Concurrently.
Gary: Split into teams again.
Marko/John/Emem: onto bibliography.
Discussing http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul21-ETIR-0-1

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul5-Energy-TP
"Assigned room in Bldg 583C for the first TP meetings the afternoon of 5 July 2010.
Energy - Room 111 'room A'
__________________________________________________________________
TP Energy

Google Group: https://groups.google.com/a/singularityu.org/group/energy

x Hind Ahmed
o Emem Andrew
o Marko Bitenc
x Alexandru Celac
x Gary Gautier
x John Graves
x David Hutchison
x San Ko
x Javier Mares Romero
x Juan Martinez-Barea
x Alaeddine Mokri
x Mercy Njima
x David Roberts
o Fabio Teixeira
+ Jim
+ Jose
+ Ross
+ Kathryn

Existing pad: http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-energy
Wiki: https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/tp-3-home-energy

2:39
Jim: Let's try to get eveybody in.
[18 people]
Jim: Point is to keep things simple and fluid and practical and relaxed.
We encourage disagreement.
David H: No we don't. [laughter]
Jim: Exactly.
Some of the best work is done like jazz improvization.
Don't get into corners where this has to be black and white.
Be flexible together.

So I brought in a bunch of stuff - unusual things.
Mounds and mounds of different breakthourgh things.
Can take some time to look at those at the end.
Focus here: 
Home and community generation of energy
Rule out some of the bigger things.
Doing the right kind of research to have a dynamic report.
Not get too wrapped up in specific choices until we have a report.
Collective intelligence of group
Brainstorm
Creative insights, environment
where we think creatively.

I have the great pleasure to be working with the ever-shy Jose
Probably creates one of the 8 trillion dollars of energy himself.

Jose: I wish

Jim: Background of what I have done. Then Jose. Then, other speakers?
Your PowerPoints?

Jose: Kathryn after me.
Jim: Others? Wait?
Jose: Richard and William could give us ideas in about 1 hours.
Richard: I can fill in gaps. Worked with many. Where it comes from, where it goes?
Jim: Time?
Richard: Fill in blanks.
Jim: Jose 30-45 min.
R: Just so I know what he is covering. 
Jose: Good you know without knowing.
[sorting out projector]
2:46 [Emem arrives. Fabio arrives.]
Jim: Go around room, talk. Give us 30 seconds about your background. 
20 seconds on your background and 10 on what intrigues you in Energy today.
Start off, lot of great people today. Resources in the room.

Fabio: Software development. Brazil.
Jim: Interest?
Fabio: Energy for everything - purify water, go to space.
Juan: Background in high tech entrepreneurship. 10 years ago. Spain.
Working for the government in the south of Spain. Try to become hot spot 
in clean tech. One reason I am here. Main challenge.
Mercy: Math background. Now doing computational stuff. Kenya. Energy deficient.
Jose: Coordinator with Alison of SF Marathon.
Hind: Sudan. Background is physics. Energy the key for solving all the problems. Serious problem there.
Gary: Barcelona. Business management. Many years in consulting. Reasong why I joined this great team, don't like all these linear models. Truly believe in synergy models, retrofitting.
David Ayotte: Theology. IN Zimbabwe. Doing work there, struck by education, lack of consistency of energy.
John Graves: Energy policy studies and geography. Interested in educational mindset perspective, knowing more about how systems interact. 
Jim: Worked with Eul Gibbons. Lived on commune.
David Roberts: background in AI, entrepreneurship, government. Energy is hard and I'm attracted to hard problems
Entrreneurship and goveernmet.
Kathryn: Staff. As K som, help all teams with research. As Jose knows, before freelance research analyst, energy economist. 
Jose: Very shy to say, but all footnotes in S is Near from K.
I will say something more about me later. Real please for me to be here with you.
I will continue working all my life, which will be infinite ... [laughter]
San Ko from south Korea, background is aerospace.
Energy will be big issue in Korea soon. Also person who asked small windmill question. Open to all the issues about the energy.
Jim: In silicon valley, you encourage peope to find out that what you said was wrong.
Brainstorming together.
San: We can make something together.
Javier: From Spain. Aerospace engineering and machine learning.
Solve energy and things become disproportionately easier.
Thing to focus on at SU.
Interested in variety of tech
Alaedine: Clemson in Nigeria? Solar energy. Published severl papers. Masdar. Assistant, working on PV. MAny techniques for producing H, justified my interest.
Your birthday today [applause]
Jose: 25 today.
David H: New Zealand. Physics. PhD in nanotechnology/material science. Interested in energy because of potential to solve other grand challenges. Some confusion, ignorance in the field..
Emem: Nigeria. Trillion dollar business. Show me the money.
Ross: Like K, on staff. Future studies. 5 - 10 year projections. Fill in for Jose, gone Friday.
Jose: Everybody know
Ross: In oil and gas for 15 years.
Emem: Degree in 
Alex: Romanina. Public Rel. Real Estate. Grew up in \"civilized\" world. 5-7 hours/day. What I learned, I learned from candles. Also the second trillion.
Richard: Head of Blue Sky for Idea Lab. EVery scale. PV for rooftops. Different architects.
Desal
Wave
Tidal
Lot of things.
\"Professional generalist\"
Just hanging out.
Will: Studing at MIT. Working for [Richard] Random info.
Richard: I'm here all week.
Alex: One year faculty of energy. Wanted place. had to learn just to have one room.

Jim: Well, I'll talk a littel about myself as a starting point. Then to Jose before he goes to help Ray at Future
Gerry Glen on 31st o fJuly.
Look up Herman Kahn. Who ran cold war in 50's and 60's.
Gerry knew him. How could I get to know Kahn.
Iron mountain report - 300 page report delivered in brown paper bag.
Never printed.
I start by saying I like to be around weird characters and innovation.
Grew up in DC. Dad in foreign service. Lived in Madras when I was one.
Guy, Ed Applewhite was R. Buckminster Fuller's right hand man.
Fuller's autobio - could not see well until glasses at age 5. Judged by smell.
\"I'm a comprehensivist\" You may find youself in an emerging dynamic.
2001, my sister decided to move 100 miles off grid in Santa Fe.
Could she live through the winter.
Hanging at Santa Fe institute.

These days, green science exchnage. Successor to nano science ex.
Sometimes in Beijing., DC, SV.
How do we get real businesses.
Asking Eric: Two types of knowledge we can go after
for sake
or experiential knowledge. Hope/plan/sweat to get action
Eric said, fair degree of e k.
What do we need?
You have to g a little slower, with less clarity to see what turns into reality.
Plan a, b, c, and adjust back with your
I'm not so into k for k itself.

People look at me in Beijing and go \"Jim ..\" or in DC in Senator's office \"Jim, how do you make a living?\"
I hlep CEOs of starts with strategic objectives.
Hamburger helper.
Give me list of 5-6 things.
Bring in major corp
Round of financing
Help you to get this thing scaled up.
Charles Osman - 2 fridays ago.
He said in Aug 2001, Jim, you've got to focus on nano.
Huge wave of business impact.
Another man, next few weeks, bo varga
First bus group on nano in Nov 2001.
Bo and Charles introduced me to woman, unusual self-aligning crystals for polarizers
On every computer/ cellphone screen.
Fascintating in 30 venture firms and present in 2002.
Long/short - they raised $30 m that yera. Had raised $15 mil before.

Was able to travel on 
Russian tech - best on brilliant one-offs.
Many other examples. You can debate.
Unbelievable out of academy of scineces.
Worked perfectly on cell phones.
On Italian mountains, did well.
50 inch - 25 different layear.
Each year paid$50m to be that layer.
Could not get yellow tint out of crystals, so went down.
Japanese bought it for $2 m. Haven't heard of it since.
Spray on nano.
Acetates - tiny bubble on 50 inch screeen, have to toss it out.

That got me in the middle of innovation.
1987 Adobe going public. Buy stock.
John Warnock at Xerox parc.
Started Postscript
2 to 64 in 2 years.
Had a lock on it. Absolute.
X P didn't know what to do with it.

Apollo Diamond. 2004. Watching at nano conf.
\"Id like to talk to you.\"
John Fam (Fan?)
Worked with Apollo. have some shares. on retainer.
Perfect real diamonds in their clean rooms by layering atoms.
If 100% pure real - mined diamonds have flaws.
Go into it for computing at nano scale.

If you come up with a tech that let's you make perfect real diamonds.
How long until we can make silver.
Fun to be around innovation - extremely uneven. People think you are an idiot.
Little hiccup. Road is extremely rocky one.
Sort of a drug. ONce you get that startup . Like a drug.
Very risky and intoxicating.

Another compnay Man at aopening.
Energy from coal without burning it
Signed in China.
Will ramp slowly.

What turns into real scale things people use is anybody's guess.
Will talk about other things.
3 years a judge at world bank awards. 
Books showing

S Jose tech museum awards

S Clara - 13-27th Aug. Met Joseph Adeligan (?) of Nigeria.
Cows to kilowatts.
AFter 7 years, has $1 m /year budget as of couple years ago.

Opinionated. Bob Metcalf on Enernet.
Most people half admit they are wrong. other half rich enough, they don't have to.

Jose: I'm going to be doing something more formal.
Plenary sessions in this room only. Usually in central room. Or main building for teleconference.

In one week, subteams. Work under the trees, you decide.
Jim and I are resources.
This is your project. Want you to be as successful as you can be.
Then K on Know Som business.
See what we have done so far. Then Jim and I go through piece by piece.
Richard/Wiliam.
Ross will facilitate thin-management. Not Jim or I. You have to decide how to be organized.

About me quickly. PowerPoint presentation.
JG: Slides?
Jose: Once I have shown them, they are all yours.
Venezula.
Piccola Venezia 
Macro, the space guy - houses on top of the water. 
Half italian, half spanish.
Beautiful women - 6 miss univ.
Up is made in Ven. Movie.
One km high waterfall. Little calendars - learn by heart.
Will give you 2.
Camels came and died.

Had to leave V due to Chave. Friend of Sadam Hussein.
Put a letter in my home that I would be assasinated.
If she hd been beauty, it was the beast. I would have been min of energy.

I had to change citizenship. They want to arrest me. I am officially spanish.
Moving to Korea.
Organizing Milton Friedman day - for Marco.
Emem: Is Thomas the grandson?
Jose: Not related at all. Marco is liberatian. He joined Water project.
Plasmodium falciparum.
My brain so tiny - parasite did not like brain.
I know what it is like to be dead - 3 days in coma.
Brain Malaria
Only .001% of people survive this.
Two MIT related - David Juan and invitees here.
And David H's brother who is coming next week.

MIT is unique. OpenCourseware. Trans- / Multi- disciplinary effort on energy.

meeting some of them in Boston.
Frm MIT. Founded \"little MIT\" Masdar - Institute of TEch.
Invite people from Stanford - we are open minded.
$50 m for solar from Saudi.
Bringing really incredible people.
Stanford/Berkeley - cheaper to bring here.
I say \"Chabatical year\" due to Chavez.
Continuous re-election. So I have been in continuous.
David H knows some Japanese.
People give cards like this [bowing, handing card in 2 hands]
My card is in languages: Japanese, Korean ...
-
Ban Ki-mmon. Best book about future.
-
Millenium project. Spefic countries: Kuwait. Four scenarios.
-
Energy content of differnet sources.
We have plenty of energy avilable.
Kardashavez scale
Alex: Discovered/proposed the most known sinus - big cycle in economic.
Jose: That's Kondratiav.
Karad -energy in universe.
Human brain uses 30 watts
Body 100 w
14 Terra watts for humanity
Solar influx 174 pentawatts.
Gary: Use by humans?
Continuous rate.
Laptop is 60-70 watts.
Gary: Where do we take watts from?
Our food.
Greg will cover energy basics. Elect and energy. Lot of confusin. Good question.
Universe has 1 x 10^56 - so we have lots.

Peru govet. 2030.
-
Delphi survey
Expert survey where you have rounds and see where there is a convergence.
Two books in Korean.
10 most famous 
Eric Drexler - father of nano.
Gerry Glen
Ray
Jim Dater
Megatrends, Nasmith.
Me
Very famouse in Kora.

Gary: Where is your Disney tie?
Jose: this project so good.
Sister in law head of Google South America.
Meet with Larry Page. Goes on holiday in Africa. He goes to see and help people.
Particularly interested in helping people.
He will love what you produce.
You will be hired.
Or he will pay for all your projects
Produce a good report

23andME. Please share your genome with us.
Help solve diseases.
-
My name - Yo+se = \"I know\" In spanish.
Katakana. Japanese. Chinese.
World Live
David H: Same as word for luggage.
Jose: Lotus of the West.

Alex: In romanian, I can tell you.
Jose: Korean. 
Yoga class tonight. Lilly is Salim's wife, really wonderful.

Moving to Asia. World is mofing there. 
China is not any country.
Jim was meeting with them.
China - 1 out of 5 is Chinese.

Jim: First day. 100 new subway stops opened in one day in Shanghai.
Jose: Dubai is nothing. In China, they build 5 every year.
1 in 5 
No more than 4 children, 5th wil l be Chines.

Jim: 3-4x pop as us. Same land mass.
Alex: 3 chinese under cover.
-
Jose: World centered on China.
Jim: Middle kingdom. China was dominant up until 300 years ago.
Real trick British used on China was to bring opium in. Chinese got addicted.
They didn't know what it was.
Jose: Beautiful to know names.
Learn to write Energy in Chinese.

David H: Map actually centered on NZ.
Jose: Actually NZ on top of the world.
Dubai - each 100 m dollars.
-
Chinese world expo - cow with map of world. [laugher]

Gary intor - to 50.
I have been to 131.
How many in countries in world? 210.
-
See world with new face
-
and new behind.
-
We have 12 nationalities.
Only NZ gringos/
Spanish only repeats.
-
Arthur C. Clarke
Three Laws of Future
First: Possible - yes, impossible - wrong
Second: Venture into impossible
Third: Magic
-
As Ross knows, 4 ways to look
Be proactive.
-
Even if ostrich - doesn't matter if you use technology [jet pack]
-
San: First Korean astronaut in 2008.
Jose: We have the two astronauts of Korea.
-
I alsolike robots.
-
Bar robot in Korea.
Emem: What? The lady [laughter]
-
Not everybody has sent back NIF information. Deadline today. ONly 6 people.
-
David - don't put SSN in e-amil.
Jim: Already went when we had deadline. Friday morning. WE can try to not send it again.
Jose: DOB, docs, 10 other things. What do we do?
David H: FAX it?
Jim: Better not to be in spreadsheet. 
Jose: Compiling into Excel.
Jim: intercept Excel and get into it? Your thoughts?
David R: Can I just put it on paper?
Jim: I'll have to find out what they want. A work in progress. Taking each case at a time. Why don't you write it and give me the info. Very unual facility to get into. Maybe only 1/3 can go.
Gary: Main concern?
David R: Don't put name, DOB and SSN together. Last time I did this was 5 years ago.
Jose: Marathon.
-
Student organizer.
-
Our beautiful leader.

Kathryn Myronuk: 
Research and research goals.
1.1 BA per person
Masters.
I went to UC Davis, studied Zoology.
Went into Agricultural Economics. Generalist.
Worked as a research economist. Measured how the LA area uses energy for a year.
Slowly moved from being a research analyst to talking about how do you do research, how to deal with a flood of information

From research analyst to market research analyst.
Now \"Knowledge Sommelier\"
Worked on endnotes for Ray's book The Singularity is Near
We need to work in the area of Super Credibility. You need to know who your biggest critics are and what their arguments are going to be.

How can this group of people who have been together for just 10 weeks make a contribution?

Here we might bring information from interdisciplinary people that we didn't even think we'd need to talk to. To build this research chain... you're writing everything down, why you decided to go down a particular trail, why did you stop. 

What is the best sort of information to use, what do you need? (as opposed to what you want)

One need that needs to exist, to continue to build on, is supercredibility. Project has to be more than just good, we are making an extraordinary claim that people working for 10 weeks can make a substantial contribution to something other people have been working on for decades.

We need a \"research chain\" --- really good documentation on what we've been working on during this time. 

It's important to keep taking notes. Be able to recreate your searches/thought processes. Check everything, especially well known stuff. (ie. how large a market is) Sometimes it's okay to say, a bunch of people believe

Better to design than retrofit.
Storage is infinite.
Always verify - common knowledge - WSJ/Time - how big things are, you can't actaully verify it.

Richard: Don't try to build a solar power plant on common beliefs. They are so wrong.

K: RSA used quotes about size of industry. Was no verification.

Things that were rejected might later become useful.

4:02 Break
4:19

x Hind Ahmed
x Emem Andrew
o Marko Bitenc
x Alexandru Celac
x Gary Gautier
x John Graves
x David Hutchison
x San Ko
x Javier Mares Romero
x Juan Martinez-Barea
x Alaeddine Mokri
x Mercy Njima
o David Roberts
o Fabio Teixeira
+ David A
+ Ross
+ K
+ 

Jose: Pg 32 of WorldFuture
Jim: Idea lab.
Richard: Tinkerer by nature.
MIT Media lab.
User interfaces, experiences. Multidimensional data.
Samsung. UI for TV division.
Awful after 5 months.
Idea lab - incubator and generator. If good idea, funded.
Jim: Years?
R: 2007-2009
Elect Cars
Green power
Mass energy storage
A lot of other stuff
Low cost housing
Built a lot of solar power stuff
Microgeneration is the right approach
Biggest con: distributed. Harder to swap out.
Cars - some 20-30 year old, horrible emissions.
If you have solar on roof, hard to switch.
Coal to solar fairly smoothly.

Jim: expensive.
R: Currently not feasible.
In CA, must build Nat Gas 11 cent/kW hour.
No solar can beat that now.
Will make energy forever? Not true. Human time investment, things break.
Jim: $20K min for solar on roof.
R: Depends. You get, 1 kW/m2 - semi accurate in the desert if no clouds.
In solation.
At 9 AM ,
1 m2 - 4 kW per day. On average. Not much.
Your house has certain number of square meters.
Current american lifestyle outstrips power that hits the house.

Barely breaks even in desert environment.
Your solar panel only lasts a certain amount of time in weather.
Jim: Germany. Are the Germans doing roofs not very efficient for them.
R: What makes solar worthwhile is amount of energy put in to fabricate, transport and install. Quite large. Will that much energy come back out before it is crap.
Alex: Invested energy ...
R: To make silicon, cutting, fabrication, assembly, power regulators, inverters, very high cost. Over life span will only put out so much 
If you put in more than put out, made worse.
David A: Time?
R: Depends on time. 25 years. or 3. Depends on person.
Keep form of energy.
Solar water heater - genius.
Solar to electrical - 80% loss.
Solar to 

Jim: Potenco in the background.
R: Foot powered pumps work well.
Human power output 100 W.
Jim: World Bank Awards.
David H: Nuclear. Waste, policy.
R: Nuclear wins. Hands down.
JJim: Martin Roshau. He says dinner with Jeffrey Immelt - by time up and running - 10 years here. 3 yrs in China. More expensive than what renewable will cost 10 years from now.
No more plants to be built by GE.

Jim: Baby nukes. VCs talking about.
R: Really cute.
Very small, completely small town sized.
Jim: MIT have one?
Fair sized. 
No human intervention.
Think of it as a nuclear battery.
Completely sealed.
Runs for 20 years.
Mercy: Cost?
Jim: Are baby nukes same as thorium nukes? Wired articles.
Google.
R: Why Thorium.
Jim: Why?
David R: No limit to resource.
r: 100s of years of Uranium.
David H: Hard to find cost.
K: 4 major companies. Are small enough to be residential neighborhood.
Jim: Got to be millions of $.
R: Just don't hit it with a backhoe.
Jim: Wherever you put it, think security.
R: Nature is good at it too. Solar Thermal.
Don't want to move metal.
Have to build serious structures - winds, hail.
Jim: People want to disassmble things. Even tanker ships.
R: Kids - in Lancaster. Local kids thowing rocks. Or shoot with rifles.
K: Safety is externality. Get it put in there.
Argument made - Chernoble - put entire plant in atmosphere as dust - More cancers less than coal pollution causes

Jim: Different areas you find interesting
R: Build energy independent house on river.
So much power out, it is great.
Solar is good for LED lights.
Used to climate control - orers of magnitude. Wash machines/driers eat power.

David A: Rivers already maxed out.
R:Small dam. Small turbine. Co-generation.
Don't need full load all the time.
Always pair these tings up.

Jim: Min $5 m.
JG: Turbine in stream by cabin in the woods.
Jim: How much
R: Remote regions. Bilding tech in small bulletproof package, all rest.
Make small turbine, build rest with concrete/rocks.
Shipping is drain on resources.
If built locally, they know how to fix it.
Jim: Wind
R: Mostly made of lies.
Big turbines. Rated on gen, not on how much power you could get out.
Wind fluctuates so much. Even consistent prevailing high winds.
Minor shifts comoplete screw up installs.
Wind is entirely mass flow. How much move though this area.
Cute things, use obstructions.
Air goes vertical. Scoop that catches wind, puts it through turbine.
Small wind generation.
Jim: Lots of these. Mariah. About $7K. Windmill.
R: Interesting. See how long they last.
Sevonius - omnidirectional. Don't have to swivel.
Wind is rarely interesting. More interested in water.
Wave/Tidal 0 more energy per area. Poplation concentrated along water.
So many really good wave power, good tech, then just died.
Ran into problems.
Red segments flex, pump oil.
Fell short on funding. Dissolved.
Gary: Sea power gneration, same as rivers?
R: With river, you make a dam, make tower of water, pull water at bottom.
With wave, then you are riding on the surface. Motion of the sea as the effector.
Gary: Comparison of energy? Enough for house?
R: Depends on how big you build it. Energy req for house. American house, much bigger house.
If LED lights and radio, then insignificant.
Mercy: Geothermal.
Other big winner.
Any kind of active geology.
Steam vents
Lava flows.
Iceland smelts bauxite.
Electrictiy costs zero.
Only way to export electricity.
Concertn about water going into active vent.
Earthquakes?
Mercy: Rift valley. Steam vents. Lake that shoots hot water. Not been touched
for energy (yet).
R: Depends on temp available.
Other thing - grade of heat. High = turbine. Low = hot springs, good for heating homes.
Technologies don't work well in hot water to air temp is not much.

Will: Roof Ridge Wind Turbine.
Looking up nuclear battery. Toshiba - 10 megaW
Jim: You can have new ideas about energy, ideas you want to do. Interesting things others
have done that you want to sacle.

Ideas of energy gen. Successful scale up.
Look at it from what is starting to work.
Brainstorm fo r9 min.
R: Any thoughts, can we build a blank? Just ask.
Jim: Jatropa.
R: Alagal lakes
Jim: Ericson promised cellphones powered by Jatropa oil.
R: Depends on what you mean by bio oil.
Palm oil - pretty high energy. You make a burnable material.
50x more efficient than ethanol from corn.
Jim: Not a good one.
will: Clearly a political decision.
Jim: Sugar and cellulosic. Ethanol. That's the baseline.
David A: Palm oil is good.
Jim: Lot of bad press.
Emem: Nigeria - now imoprt Palm Oil from Malaysia.
Alex: List ...
Jim: Share on Friday.
Make onw lists.
Emem: So cheap 
Jim: Palm oil exploitation ...
Emem: It is a lie.
Jim: NextFuel $100 m Palm Oil in devel world. Read articles. Don't understand dialog.
R: If you can keep the labor in country.
Emeem: Palm better than stock market. Put in drums, selling for 60% more than you bought.
Then, couldn't sell any more.
David A: Culturally supported - palm wine. Many layers of culture.
R: Oil is not consumed in quantity that trees produce it. Find efficinet ways.
Algal biofuesl. Pretty easy. Ponds near coastlines.
Jim: Johnthan trent in ocean.
R: Tide flow through every so often.
Algae gorws like crazy.
Jim: community scale.
R: Turn waste water holding ponds + bubble waste trhough it.
You can brew it. Sugary, yeast which grows on it.
Jim: Strains
R: you'll want to seed it.
Jim: China lakes turned into unusable water. Other questions?
R: PV - more efficient to do concentrated. Focus on panel. Lens/mirror is less expensive, 
but then track sun. Must be accurate.
Smaller chunk, can use higher quality cells.
Very high quality for NASA. 43% efficientcy vs 15%. Lots of light focused on it, then big 
heat sink.
$20-30K panel.
Jim: $25K after subsidies.
Could be home?
R: Being done. Cheaper. 
David A: SpectraLab high efficiency cells.
Non imaging concentrators.
Mercy: Storage and distribution?
R: Micro gen makes sense, don't need to do it.
Mercy: Community
Keep lines short, voltages high.
Storage is problem for everyone.
Water tower - turbine at night.
Batteries.
If concentrated solar thermal, can store heat. Pipes.
Power plants just wnat one more hour.
Time you sell power to the grid determines price per kW hour.
Jim: Closing thoughts?
Will? China, doing great things. Fascinating to see.
community brainstorming is exciting.
Green blogs:
Keep up way better.
Jim: Particular?
Tree hugger. Broad range of insane things. Like hippies.
Will: The internet is weak here.
Jim: Blog?
Looks like TH still posts a lot. Others were good.
Jim: Eric Wesoff.
R: Worldchanging
Blog called metaefficient. Has ceased.

Pez? 
Peswiki.com
5:03
Jim: ARchive.org. Things that no longer exist. About 2/3rds of history.
Wayback machine.
R: On google wave - keep track of what is oging on .Invite me to your wave.
Jose: will circulate.
Jim: will send invite.
Jose: put room as you like for Friday. We can move furniture.
Plenary sessions for our group. Must organize.
We must clean each night. No food. Put things in bins.
Team member photos.
Alex: Next meeting Friday 2:30-5:30.
Jim coordinating and Ross telling from last year.
Like what John did - differentiate. Image.
T-Shirt.
Decide on name for the team. Something on internet, get web page.
Ross - 3D ACASA 
GetAround for transportation.
Buy the domain.
Interesting exciting and good name to identify project.
Leaving tonight for Boston.
UNESCO.
Giving to water - scenario for 2020. Cooperate with our friends.
Marco - Slovenian guy. Not totally decided. Try to get him back here. Went to water session.

John should not complain - presentation upload in progress. 15 minutes (30 MB) not possible at NASA>
Want everything onlline.
Time management.
John: doing what I can.
Jose: energy@singularityu.org
Might use otehr things.
Etherpad.
What you think is best.
Alex: Process of taking decision. So many optinos. No clear direction.
Jim: May be simpler ...
Alex: Naming of building took 2 weeks. Don't focus on naming, last thing.
This is kind of things we can decide very quick, 5 min.
Jim: Choose name in 5 min and change it. Take 4-5 days to think about it.
Jose: You met Shauna. Civiguard. Had other name for 3 weeks.
Team project willh ave nothing to do with what we are doin g now. Be flexible. 
Jim: Efficiency is important.
Jose: Group dynamics. 3 members disappeared.
They have pet project.
Nuclear micro reactor - 
2 Davids and Javier.
Planning something coup de tat. 
Talk to them. Need convergence.
Had many problems.
Very intelligent poeple with your own plans.
Logistics - very important.

Jim: Speakers?
Jose: The agenda.
JG: Specific to energy team.
Jose: Like space, we are double - both track and project.
Jim: 3 faculty on e track 
Maryniak
me
Lot of great site visits as part of energy track.
Wonderful stuff happening in both.
Lot very quickly in 3 weeks or so.
Jose: Quick preview.
This is our room. Put things, whatever you want.
Put this as example.
__ Photos at door.
Two areas of interest: project and energy/environ track.
Jim: Get 2 desks out. Leave some furniture in here.
Gary - organize like library.
David A: Keep groups in building to interact.
Gary: thinner tables easier to use.
Jose: we can try different things.
Different team projects - modify anything they want.
Lots in Water.
Schedule.
Etherpad - everything nicely recorded. even bad jokes.
Can't go to China now!

In terms of what has happened. Who we have. Friends of faculty.
Very interested to follow up. Will invite in August. See what you are doing.
First activity.
Quick slides from presentations:
Gregg Maryniak. One who gave Spirit of St. Louis to Diamandis. However they disagree.
Disagreements - space based solar power.
Jim: Experts will violently disagree
Jose: Ray/Peter disagree about life in universe. No/Yes.
Richard Smalley - chemistry Nobel Prize winner, disagrees with Eric Drexler.
Huge arguemnt in chem assoc mag, 
Same with Aubrey deGray. Top MIT mag, $20K bet to prove hime wrong.
We are going to disagree.
3 team members that left. This willhappen again later.
We want them here.
MAybe building micro nuclear now.
Priority #1 is Energy.
-
UC Davis, Stanford.
Q&A. Emem.
Next Monday. World expert on all energies.
Sci Am in Octo. Article 
Plan for wind, water, solar
First lecturer on 12 July.
Wed: Margo Garodson. Other counterpart at Stanford.
Wind all energy.
Just talking to us.
-
Gelobter. 
Costs of energy. Two views: Pessimist/Optimist.
All are self fulfililng prophecies.
If we think we will survive, we will. - Arthur C Clarke.
I am a cornucopian.
Schneider - I think totally wrong.
Is the Science settled? Many friends working on this.
These guys are not stupid. 
Jim: Considered a world expert on climate.
Clint Wilder: Clean tech rev. Sausalito - visit him.
Will visit BrightSource.
concentrated solar. Juan.
Jim: Probably leader in country. Read. Get a feel.
Huge financing behind them.

Eric: Dates.
3 phases. projects. dates.
Jim: Speakers coming up.
Jose: Absorb all knowledge to get to ETIR. Our concentration is on this.
Understand all technologies available.
Define the problem space.
Maybe what we do will have nothing to do with what we started.
You are incredibily smart.
Target again: ETIR 3 Aug.
Bring experts. you are as powerfulas us.
Juan - presidnt of larges power co in Spain.
Jaun: Obama has chosen co to build biggest solar plant in the world in AZ.
Jose: VEry importatn company. Workign on technology reoport.
Jim: The speakers.
Jose: Version 0.1
Original proposal from 3 mos ago.
Jim modified.
This is what we presented. 
You will decide.
Jim: Brainstorming then research.
Keeping flexible.
Kicking ideas and numbers around.
Jose: 10 goals. Like 10 commandments. Not religion here.
you can change the 10 commandments - isn't that beautiful.

Volume of solar and wind are incredibly big.
Bob Metcalf. Strong advocate of nuclear.
Jim: Invented ethernet. Strong thinker. If you are full of BS, he will tell you.
Famous.
Jose: Ask him the questions. Very influential. 10 companies in Polaris fund.
Jim: Algae scrubbing coal. Very sexy idea. Went out of business a year and a half ago.
Major VCS don't mind 8 failures if they create mutlibillion industry with one of them.
Jose: Space solar.
Jim: Gerry Glenn, Paul Wearbos? Deeply discusses in Carter. Spend $20 bn to get it going
Other things easier.
Understand possibilities here.
Jose: Japan actually doing this.
Jim: US military got hotter on it.
Jose: Mitsubishi Heav Ind - $2 bn
R: Was going to be provacateur. Will leave it.
Jose: We are working on something else, unless you change it.
Ray - big fan of solar.
Meet with Larry Page - if your project is good.
Microbial battery.
salt wtaer ponds

Field Visits:
Solar Company
Bloom Energy - 60 minutes piece. Senile PAul Sold brightmail. Bloom is PR breakthrough
Google behind it. Success reamins to be seen. 
__ Jim: Watch 60 Minutes piece.

Jose: 3 weeks. Now to abosorb.
Technical
Financial
Corporate issues

Videos
Budget of about $4-5K for you to devise prototype we can show.
Buy solar panels, wind equipemnt, some stroage device.
Jim: Not much wind below $7K.
We can brainstorm.
Jose: Take decisions amongst yourselves.
Jim: Or get loans from friends.
Jose: can do yourselves, scavenging.
R: Assume your time is worth nothing.
Jose: Work together - forever. 
Team management. Corporate structure. Subgroups.
Not good that subgroup left.
Alex: Still with us.
Ross: Students wil do what they want to do.
Leadership roles.
Shuffle.
Don't be offended.
Eric talking to people not in groups now.
Jim: Point is to relax an d do what each cares about. Self assemble.
6 or 16
R: Best 3 people.
Jim: Waht matters is what gets done, not how many people.
Jose: Self organization
Jim: Peopel eithr 1+1=0 ro 5.
People who multiply each others ability.
Optimism creates results. Enables results.
Pessimism makes us feel we can't do much.
Fun things to do.
Try to create a web page. Domain name.
Stories about names. Ask Ross.
Jim: Mention skils 5-10. Make a list.
You said you were good at this.
__ bring a list.
__ technologies you like
__ successes around the world
In a giant stew.
Each person should take 10 min to bring up skills, ideas, successes.
Chart out on paper, big stickies.
Jose: Filming. Literature about your project.
Company? they give you $10 m.
Organizing Vancouver presnetion.
Marathonl
Jim: And Jose keep in mind energy track - Brightsource, Solar City, Bloom, you've got those
And the 
Bo Varga
Eric Wessoff - green tech media. com on 15 July.
Lineup we'll get out to you clarified list by friday.
Really exciting group.
Jose: Show on internet. Presentation is here:
https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B3sPlav9xIzoOGU1NjM4YTItMjRmNC00NjcxLWI2YjgtN2ZiZjdkMTg5YmZh&hl=en

Sign up for activities of interest:
Build microbial battery.
Prize for best one.

Visit several companies.
CISCO Smart grid
Jim: 1 hour at each place. 2 for half day.
Juan: Tesla.
Jim: Only had certain on list. We thought ... Tesla nice, but not cutting edge.
Visiting Brightsource, understanding better.
Fuel cell company - very high profile.
Only 2 half days for visits.
CISCO is a real treat - very dynamic.
John Chambers does not fool around.
When they go after a market, they go full force.
Intel in China.

We do have Mark Vandenberg. Vantage Point - second biggest shareholder in Tesla.
Big energy
VPVP.com
Heaviest hitters in the valley on future of energy.

Jose: You are free. As many contacts as we do in some places.
JG: Government interview?
__ Jim: I know people.
Jose:Have schedule displayed somewhere.
Jim: We'll refine this. Flexible, experiential. Brainstorm. Put some into practice.
Refine.
Doing good in these areas, refine.
Turn good ideas into reality.
Jose: Wiki comments not good thing to do. [why?]
Track portal is not editable.
Jim: July 20. Speaking of government 
Dan Kamen - Clinton advisor. ACORE - American Council on Renewable Energy.
Justin ... who could have been Chu.
Senile Paul - briliant guy on faculty here last year.

3 July sessions.
10 July sessions - Friday.
__ Create GSP10 Energy calendar (Gary/Emem)
Homework for Monday. Guy knows everything.
Team project.
Marathon. Mercy will finish with that.

Gary: Who pushing marathon? 
Jose: Mercy
Alex: Question an dAnswer -> Question and Actions.
5:53
Jim: Action is what we are aiming for, but some time we may just need a few answers.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jun23-Global-Grand-Challenge-links
"Energy

Main Etherpad: http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jun23-Global-Grand-Challenge

Links:
==============

News:

Organizations:

Blogs:

Books:
http://www.amazon.com/Mountains-Beyond-Healing-World-Farmer/dp/0375506160

Regarding energy for the home: all the buildings in this database are ZERO energy
http://www.passivhausprojekte.de/projekte.php?search=2

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpfood-Jun22-Global-Grand-Challenge
"TP Food Grand Challenge Session

Tuesday, June 22, 9:00 am

[ NOTE: DO NOT EDIT THIS PAGE NOW. Make your changes to the searchable wiki version at 
https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/tp-2-food-for-cities/grand-challenge-panel-6-22
instead. Cheers.]

John Hogan, co-lead TP Food for Cities
John's charts have been uploaded to the TP Food folder
http://tinyurl.com/282k2xz

FYI - The link to folders with presentations is off of the TP page (near the bottom of the page)
https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/tp-2-food-for-cities

Food for Cities Overview
6.8 billion people; dozen or so in space station.

Where are we today? Key food facts and figures.

In summary: 
a) 30-50% of all the food produced on the planet is wasted
b) the number of overweight people is now higher the number of undernourished people (about 1 billion).

\"Food losses occur at all levels of the food system, from farming, processing and wholesaling, through to consumers \u2013 in both developed and developing countries.
In developed countries, losses along the entire value chain of food products range from a few percent to as high as 40\u201350%. Food losses and spoilage first occur at pre-harvest level, then, inefficient harvesting and poor post- harvest handling adds up to these losses: for fresh fruits and vegetables in the US for instance, harvesting losses are c.12%. At the consumers\u2019 level, 14\u201326% of the purchased food in the US and around 25% of food and beverages in the UK are wasted in households. Most of this food is thrown away untouched and still fit for consumption even items for which the \u201cbest-before-date\u201d is largely irrelevant (e.g. chocolate bars).
In developing countries, losses are estimated to be 30\u201350%. Pre-harvest losses and spoilage of up to 40% first occur, mainly because of attack from rodents and insects and as a result of inadequate storage facilities. An adverse climate with high humidity and temperature, coupled with inefficient harvesting, storage, transportation, and processing result in losses ranging from 10\u201337% for cereals and oil seeds in Asia, reaching c.50% for some perishable staples. Wastage levels at the consumer level however are then very low.
Inefficiency in the food value chain from harvesting losses through to consumer wastage generates a cost of at least $100 billion annually in the US. In the UK, the 5.3 million tonnes of avoidable food and beverage waste is associated to a \u00a314 billion expense by households for food beverages purchased but not consumed, with an additional \u00a31 billion expense for local authorities who have to collect and send this waste to landfill2.

The impact of this food waste has additional impacts beyond purely monetary, for example: \u2022 Greenhouse gasses: on average 4.2 tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions; and every tonne of
beverage waste generates on average 1.5 tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions3 \u2022 Water: conservative estimate of the water losses caused by food losses and wastage could
therefore be that about half of the water withdrawn for irrigation is lost4 \u2022 Further emissions to soil, air and water occur along the value chain: e.g. 36% of acidifying air
emissions in Europe come from agriculture5

Today, despite the high levels of spoilage and waste and more food being available, one billion people \u2013 a sixth of the world's population \u2013 are undernourished.6 At the same time, the contrast between developed and developing countries is shown again by the fact that the number of people who are overweight has surpassed the number of people who are undernourished. The balance needs to be struck to ensure provision of sufficient daily per capita calorie intake requirement to lead an active and healthy lifestyle.\"

(Source: Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Research for Food Value Chain Waste Working Group, contributing to the World Economic Forum 'Driving Sustainable Consumption' report, 2010
http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/DrivingSustainableConsumption/index.htm
Ask Eric Ezechieli for details)

ELSS - Earth\u2019s life support systems:
Physical/chemical properties and processes:
Radiation protection creates a field to protect us from radiation
Stable rotation
Proper gravitational field
Proper solar radiation levels and atmospheric pressure

Ecosystem services: 
Water purification, air purification and radiation protection, disease/pest control, waste decomposition
Climate control, nutrient cycling, soil formation/fertility, food production

Human life support systems: agriculture, waste treatment, water treatment, power production, transportation of materials good people, commerce, industry, communications, entertainment. Question is how do these systems work together.

Human population explosion due to discovery of energy, however, this does not mean food. Energy does not feed us.

City populations will double in 30 years (predictions); this will require land away from agriculture. Will need more water, energy and nutrients. Population growth and production growth are not commensurate. 

Food aids and imports constitute transfers.
Undernourished population 10 years ago was in Africa. Right now 1 billion regularly suffer from hunger, mostly women and children. One child dies every 6 seconds due to hunger. 1,800 in the next 3 hours. 

We lose 8 million hectares of trees (deforestation) mostly in Africa and south America. Aquifer depletion, (non-replenishable), increased soil salinity and ecosystem disruption
Some urban areas utilize untreated or treated wastewater or groundwater; thus agriculture is a major human disease interface. 

In past 50 years, nitrogen flux doubled, phosphorous tripled
169 hypoxic areas: 233 areas of concern, 13 in systems
peak phosphorous (recall, ATP ADP) \u2013 declining availability of major crop macronutrient
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphorus
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/33164
In the literature, estimates before we \"run out\" of phosphorus range from 50 to 130 years. This date is conveniently far enough in the future so that immediate action does not seem necessary. ]

CO2 derives 15-20% from agriculture

agriculture \u2013 major source of greenhouses gases, deforestation, loss of soil carbon, other outcomes.

UN millennium development goals: 1. Halve proportion of those who suffer from hunger
Grand challenge: develop and implement robust and resilient food production systems that sustainably nourish future human populations while restoring and maintaining Earth\u2019s ecosystems.
[http://www.endpoverty2015.org/]

Overall system requirements:
Increase food production (9-10 billion, mostly in systems)
Sustainable water use practices (reduce current levels even when we feed more
Close nutrient cycles (especially phosphorous)
Provide utilize and sustainable energy sources
Decreased human and plant disease propagation
Improve distribution infrastructure
Buffer food systems from environmental/climate change
Use agriculture to restore and maintain earth\u2019s ecosystem health and services

Highly complex process, interlinked with water, upcycle and energy, too. 

Food waste: see, for example, http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.Print.asp?DocumentID=591&ArticleID=6237&l=en
40-50% in the US, 1/3 of food purchased in the UK not eaten, in Africa 30% of fish loss after being caught...

===

Christina Milesi: 

Dr. Cristina Milesi
Research Scientist
NASA Ames Research Center & University Corporation Monterey
Mail Stop 242-4
Moffett Field, CA 94035
(650) 604-6431
email: cristina.milesi@gmail.com
http://ecocast.arc.nasa.gov/peop/cristina.php

Deteriorating food security in the semi-arid world

Annual rate of growth in grain yields has been declining since 1960 - more than halved. Projected to be 0.8% in 2040s.
This takes place concurrently with population growth

31 of 41 countries that hold 90% of the water-limited croplands show a decline in annual average growth rate of food grain production. But crop statistics are aggregated.

Is it because of droughts? Is the precipitation declining in this area? No. Compare changes in food production to changes in precipitation and there is no correlation.

Also, Satellite data shows more precise view of crop production globally, not limited to country discretization
We look at Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a measure of concentration of green leaves. 

NDVI satellite data measures what is reflected from earth\u2019s surface. Near infrared minus red over near infrared plus red; lots of growth \u2013 higher NDVI

Some areas actually show an increase in NDVI, but this took place 82-92 or mid 90s, and has stagnated. Most areas don\u2019t have growth. Many areas have a decline.

Rate of change is negative for 45% of water-limited tropical cropland

India - Rabi season no rain from Nov to May. Kharif season is the rainy season. In a good moonson food production increases. Food production is also high during the Rabi season because of good irrigation systems. Up to 60% of the country is irrigated.
Sources of irrigation are: Canals, rivers, ground water (wells).

Decline in agriculture likely has more to do with irrigated water than with rainfall. The consumption rate of water surpasses the capacity of aquifers - they're being depleted. 
Rates are between 50-150% of annual precipitation.

Irrigation in India increased linearly over last couple of decades until mid 90's. then flattened. Why? See above not regarding aquifers.
Relative increase in water consumption due to increased dry season crop production.

Measure the change in distance between two GRACE satellites: measure change in local gravity, which has been shown to correspond to change in underground water sources.

Gravity declines in areas where groundwater is depleted - this can be picked up by a system of two satellites (GRACE)

if precipitation does not increase but temperature rises(projected to increase by >1 deg over the next 50 years) , food production still falls (crop yield)

Cropland area in wet season is already in decline. Dry season cropland area increasing, results in strain on water systems.

Summary:
-Satellite data provide measurement of declines in rate of food production.
-Various environmental drivers are involved in this decline
- Improved water management and overall use efficiency are essential for reversing the recent food grain shortages

Christina mentioned evidence that crops can be grown better and more plentiful with less water

Evidence exists that using less water allows u to grow more and better crops. One solution is then to increase efficiency of irrigation systems.

===

Dr. Dickson Despommier:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dickson_Despommier
http://www.verticalfarm.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vertical_farming

Damaging the environment has medical consequences
Moving agriculture indoors has tremendous advantages
Solving food and water problems are core global issues
How to go about solving the problem
First create a prototype

Indoor faming saves about 70% of outdoor faming water
VF allows farming on the planet Earth, on the Moon, on Mars and elsewhere

Farming began 12K years ago.
Today we farm the size of South America in cropland.
Dr. D defined birthright as: 2.3 L of safe water, 1500 calories of food per day and this should be available to the world popln of 6.8B people.

Gorgeous food pyramic in Dubai

The Eden Project: http://www.edenproject.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eden_Project
Images of the Eden project
http://tinyurl.com/2eq6vgl
Other concepts:
Pla(n)tform, in Israel. Intensive farm idea.
Also \"Vertical Farm,\" Gordon Graff, Toronto
\"City of the Future,\" Fougeron Architects, San fran
\"Vertical Farm,\" Blake Kurasek, Chicago IL
\"Vertical Farm,\" Owen Foster, Queensland Australia
\"Urban Farm,\" Jung Min Nam, NYC
PlantLab in Holland \"probably the first ones that will do this.\"
\"Experimental Vertical Farm,\" Santiago, Chile
Holland also has underground growing systems. They utilise LEDs.
Also Vertical Farm Model Team, Chicago
\"Newark Vertical Farm,\" Weber Thompson/Thomson

Recommendations on how to start: 
First create a prototype

Newark NJ and Chicago IL have both announced plans to build vertical farms

Sting wants to make a documentary about building the first VF in the USA

NOTE: There is competion from 65 guys@MIT on this project! Who? Do they have a team name we can google? Will have to ask Dr. Dickson. he just mentioned it in passing. OK I thought you might have inside info. I spoke to him about it last night. The person he's referencing is Herbert Einstein http://cee.mit.edu/einstein but I cannot find any references - besides another interview with Despommier - to his 65-man team or to work he's doing on vertical farming.

Aeroponics 70% more efficient than hydroponics. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeroponics

Use human feces and urine as sources of water and energy.

===

22nd June 2010
Food For Cities Challenge
John Hogan co-chair
6.8 billion people on Earth

Earth's LIfe Support Systems (ELSS) is made of resource diversity, radiation protection, gravitational field, table rotation, etc..

Earth's Ecosystem Services have evolved to maintain and support the systems (ELSS)

Agriculture became another Life Support System (created to support human life)

Earth's Human Population boosted in 2000 because of Energy which helped us create more food

15/24 Life Support Systems are starting to decline

Most population growth we will see will happen in cities, which will require additional agricultural land to enlarge, lots more water, energy, nutrients

Double of population growth is expected within the next 30 years

Additional 10^9 hectares needed in next 50 years

Nearly 1 billion people regularly suffer from hunger (most of Africa and Asia)

Deforestation is increasing at an alarming rate

Farming in areas that don't have rain, which means we need to irrigate them

70% of freshwater use is for agriculture

Agriculture is a major interface between disease and human

Agriculture releases nitrogen and phosphorous to waterways/oceans

Phosphorous is a macronutrient that all plants need. Nitrogen is different because it is in the air and can always be pulled down, but phosphorous needs to be mined. All waste phosphorous is released in ocean which means we are going to run out of it. Phosphorous owners are soon to be equivalent to oil owners today.

Current Goals: 
1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
Develop and implant robust and resilient food production systems that sustainably nourish future human populations while restoring and maintaining the Earth's ecosystems. So basically try to make agriculture helpful instead of harmful.
To do this we nee to:
Increase food production
Employ Sustainable water practices
Close nutrient cycles such as phosphorus
Provide and utilize sustainable energy sources
Decrease human and plant disease propagation
Improve distribution infrastructure
Buffer food systems from environmental and climate change
Use agriculture to restore and maintain Earth's ecosystems health and services (how do we use agriculture as a useful resource?)

Cristina Milesi

Er-Raki et al., 2007
One way to calculate change in water consumption is through satellite. Established methods relate the changes in water consumption and vegetation appearance.

Rodell et al., 2009
GRACE satellite 2002-2008 (aka Tom and Jerry)
Gravity measurements are smaller on denser materials, which is how the calculation for water consumption is done.

Relating changes in temperature with crop yields, it is seen that, even if precipitation increases, the yields decline up to 4% for 1 degree celsius increase. In India this is going to happen because of climate change, which is worrying. In the dry season the crop yield is already in decline. But population is not declining yet, and is getting more concentrated in the cities. This means it's a change that is already happening.

Dickson Despommier-Columbia University

The vertical Farm: Keystone Concept to the Sustainable Eco-city

Farming begun 12,000 years ago

Eden Project-UK, Cornwall

How do we get to vertical farming from where we are now?

How do we remove agriculture from the landscape?

Fashion a city farm (vertical farming)

Indoor farming uses 70% less water than outdoor
Aeroponics uses 70% less water than hydroponics
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeroponics
(more precise thanks)

Lane Patterson

6months for the sun to set in Antarctica and then 6 months of darkness

Hydroponics is a method of growing plants using mineral nutrient solutions, in water, without soil (Wikipedia)

In South Pole: Semi-automated Plant F Growth Control (SPFGC) system requires Hydroponic , Nutrient Injection, Carbon Dioxide Injection, Light Cycle

His Job (Nasa grant): Characterize how a high-pressure sodium lamp worked in a water cooled environment-you want plants to grow really close to the light source

Descritpion of System: 3 Hydroponic Systems, 63 computer driven sensors, 8 sensors allow the control of the chambers

Lettuce and Cucumber are the best grown vegetables in the chamber (reliable twice a day)

Rotation Schedule for different vegetables (turnover when plants exhausted their growth capacity) ensured constant supplies of vegetables for the entire crew

47% of what comes out of the chamber is edible in terms of mass (Harvest Index)

===

Antarctic Hydroponics, by Lane Patterson
http://www.aquaponicsjournal.com/articleAntarcticHydroponics.htm

The University of Arizona\u2019s Controlled Environment Agriculture Center 
http://ag.arizona.edu/ceac/

Lane speaks on 
Antactica's winter provides no light and no soil so you use hydroponic systems to grow food
SPFGC

SPFGC: semi-automated plant grown chamber
1. hydroponic 
2. nutrient injection
3. automated CO2 injection
4. light cycle
5. Anyone get 5?? was it waste management? Jeez, someone with my exact color. That's nuts. If I were schizophrenic, this would be terrifying. Also, probably waste management.

High Pressure Sodium Lamp
cooled with a water jacket

17 hour photoperiod
Hydroponic PH 6.0
Photo period temp 23.6 degrees to Dark period temp 19.3 degrees. 
Constant rel humidity % 59
Average Pressure kPa about 68 (also experience oxygen deprivation)
CO2 conc , ppm 1334 (usually we experience 400 ish outside, up to 800 ppm inside in everyday setting)

Harvest Results
Lettuce 45%
Pepper 1%

1 nursery zone for seedlings
There are different zones for different crops. Different conditions? Not really just spacing to ensure optimal grow out (space efficiency - more plants in the early stage and thin out as they grow bigger).

Lettuce and Cucumber two staple crops

Harvest index: ie. how much was edible

Measured inputs and outputs of SPFGC

Biomass produced 6 kg/day 47% of which was edible
1.1 kg CO2 per day, producing 0.52 kg/day of O2 (calculated not measured)
281 KWH day, electricity and 315 KWH day heat

leak of some air and CO2 from chamber

for 0.17 kg salt/day used, 6kg/day biomass produced
for 153.3 kg/day water used, 143.8 kg/day water produced
1.1 kg/day CO2 consumed, 0.52 kg/day O2 created
Used 153.3kg of water per day and produced 148Kg of water
Labour 3.3hr/day. Telecontrol is possible. Can robots be used to provide the labour?
The energy balance is 13% between input and output energy

Chamber managed remotely by tele-presence and tele-robotics. http://ag.arizona.edu/ceac

C130's deliver supplies and materials
Lunar Greenhouse Project (LGH) carried at the moment at the University of Arizona
50square meters is according to NASA what you need to produce enough oxygen for one person one day in a biosphere and that's close to what the LGH project is producing at the moment

Need to close the water/carbon/oxygen cycle 

about 30 nutrients in all, 6 macro nutrients, 7 micro nutrients

Carbon, Hydrogen, Oxygen, water CO2 is what most of life is made out of

To ensure sustainability, there is need to recycle these life essential components. Reuse water, O2 etc. LGH has demonstarted 85% reuse of H2O. 

Would be able to save 100litres of water a day if the water used by the cahmber were set in a closed cycle in which it would constantly be reused
85% water closure of system

use of CO2 for input from atmosphere rather than from condensed canisters flown in

A human produces 1Kg of CO2 a day

Key QUESTION: how many calories of fossil fuel do you need to produce one calory of food in the South Pole Chamber?

Resources (ask Eric Ezechieli for details): 
1) Sahara Forest Project: http://saharaforestproject.com
2) John Liu massive reforestation in arid China Areas (the size of belgium): http://blog.earthshope.org/category/lessons-of-the-loess-plateau/

Questions: With current technology, how do the price of these vegetables compare with market prices? How does the nutritional value of the plants found at the south pole compare to those in the grocery store? When can we expect them to be competitive, or near competitive? What about meat and fish? (ans: synthetic meat production?)

11:23 We have another 35 minutes. Discuss material from this morning. How to craft into a project.

Chris McKay
Planetary Scientist, NASA Ames Research Center
Chris McKay is a Planetary Scientist with the Space Science Division of NASA Ames. He has been a research scientist at NASA Ames since 1982, after receiving his Ph.D. in AstroGeophysics from the University of Colorado. He is one of the world's leading researchers studying Titan, and has also been actively involved in planning for future Mars missions including human settlements. 

Question and Answer 
with the full Food for Cities TP panel

Manuel from Spain. Teaching Fellow.

Q: David: how much bioengineering plants using ocean salt water.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halophyte

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spartina (cordgrass)

Idea: Desalinate water with bioengineered plants
Engineer plants to grow much smaller, provide all amino acids, increase the efficiency of photosynthesis

photosynthesis is ~1-2% efficient
keep salt stress on the list of team project things to address

Q: Connor: Loss of biodiversity to enable mass food produc
A: consider Vault vs Monsanto, balance

Svalbard Global Seed Vault: 500,000 samples so far
http://nordgen.org/sgsv/ see also the Seed Trust's work overall on collecting, emergency rescue and regeneration:
http://www.croptrust.org/main/arcticseedvault.php?itemid=211

Q: Davidad: what is the use for planetary bodies if you can have just floating bodies in space?
A: giving up on earth is not an option, biggest export from moon/mars is information
reason for moon/mars: it is destination for exploration, the cans in space are just means for getting there

Book: Gerald O'Neil. Colonies In Space
http://www.amazon.com/High-Frontier-Human-Colonies-Apogee/dp/189652267X

Q: jan: Food subsidies?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agricultural_subsidy
Remnants of a system that is no longer viable or perhaps no longer integrated well

what do we want to change to?

leap frogging, not just small changes
remediation
$200B food aid from USA, (this subsidy is given and the other countries are not expected to grow their own food or the subsidy does not cover or help the aid receiving countries to grow their own food) majority for other countries: mistake because other countries dependent on USA

How do we create subsides that would promote the agricultural systems of the future.

question: what will farmer of the future look like? cooperative/community farming?
answer: many communities are already starting gardens in vacant lots, what was in the vacant lot beforehand becomes problem though
in general >1000ppm CO2 you get diminisioning returns

Question: in terms of genetic engineering, if there is a feature of plants you would want to change what would it be?

Answer:
heat tolerance and draught tolerance
greate photosynthesis efficiency
dream: a plant that is >2% (photosynthesis) efficient and whose energy is taken advantage of by humanity
developemnt of rice that has all basic amino acids
engineer all crops of the world that have basic amino acids without changing taste. Also increase the nutrients contained so that people can get all the nutrients they need from one bite rather than having to eat many different foods to get different nutrients.

q: bill: financing/automation

question: What control systems are available to control agriculture
Answer: The sensors mainly control the environment. Power sensors measures the light for photosynthesis, temp sensors (plant and light), water, electrical conductivity sensors (salt in water) .
Some control involves simple protection of agric - eg is screens to protect from insects
\"Speaking\" plant - controling envr based on what plant is telling you not temp humidity etc and system responds
Growing Plants that aren't edible(side by side with edible plants) but will warn against threats to the edible plants....

question: david: 3D limits of capacity?
Answer: now we are using cheap splace (Tennessee making 40M heads of lettuce a day)
Eurofresh farms
http://www.eurofresh.com/
Use social marketing to demand food as fresh as one hour old.

Q: Aim to produce more food or get more people fed?
A: issue is control of distribution and pricing
must put food prdocution in hands of people
trade agreement from: trading grain for air bases to, wow we grow the same crops of each other we're friends
Access to food needs to be improved. Most people's diet still depends on starch and not vegetables.

Q: Candice- Complex Q help! Based on the answer of synthetic meat production I have a hunch it had to do with protein generation. She was also mentioning food , feed and fill instead of fuel if that helps to reconstruct the question

Q: can you grow any type of plant everywhere or is there extra input required (like transportation)?
Will Allen in Milauwkee

Q(in etherpad chat, from Andrew Hessel): Food biotechnology is the largest and most important route to people. What would a better food biotech company look like?
- More genetic diversity, perhaps - keeping the pest-resistant traits without creating a pure monoculture.
- an alternative use given the overlap of TPs: Explore the potential to integrate non-food crop based biofuels production into vertical farming. Interesting - perhaps a nitrogen storage legume? (which you can then convert to fuel). To put nutrients back? But perhaps not as useful in a hydroponic system. Maybe even growing algae for biomass in the wastewater.
proximity to the consumer 

====

Unrelated discussion:
Earth is 71% water
Crops are 2000 million tonnes of biomass.
Antartic krill are 500 million tonnes of biomass.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomass_%28ecology%29#Ocean_biomass

http://aquaculture.noaa.gov/
\"Aquaculture is the fastest growing form of food production in the world.\"

http://www.nzmfa.co.nz/faq.asp
There are approximately 645 mussel farms in New Zealand. The average lease is between three and five hectares although farms may vary from one hectare to 20 or more. 

How is a mussel farm set up?
Each three hectare farm would typically have nine longlines of 110 metres each. Each longline would support 3,500 to 4,000 metres of crop line. Each long line is supported by 50 to 70 polypropylene floats, each of which can support one tonne. 

http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/oceanography-book/microbialweb.htm
Life in the ocean is microbe based. Most of the biomass and biological activity in the ocean is microscopic, and microbes dominate earth's carbon, oxygen, sulphur, and nitrogen cycles. There are 100 million times more bacteria in the ocean than stars in the known universe, and there are a thousand times more viruses than bacteria. Yet we know little about the relationships between microbes and their environment because only one tenth of one percent of the bacteria have ever been cultured. The traditional marine food web exists in a sea of microbes and dissolved carbon-based matter. [Sounds like a biotech opportunity here...]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algaculture
Several species of algae are raised for food.
*Purple laver (Porphyra) is perhaps the most widely domesticated marine algea.[17] In Asia it is used in nori (Japan) and gim (Korea). In Wales, it is used in laverbread, a traditional food, and in Ireland it is collected and made into a jelly by stewing or boiling. Preparation also can involve frying or heating the fronds with a little water and beating with a fork to produce a pinkish jelly. Harvesting also occurs along the west coast of North America, and in Hawaii and New Zealand.
*Dulse (Palmaria palmata) is a red species sold in Ireland and Atlantic Canada. It is eaten raw, fresh, dried, or cooked like spinach.
*Spirulina (Arthrospira platensis ) is a blue-green microalgae with a long history as a food source in East Africa and pre-colonial Mexico. Spirulina is high in protein and other nutrients, finding use as a food supplement and for malnutrition. Spirulina thrives in open systems and commercial growers have found it well-suited to cultivation. One of the largest production sites is Lake Texcoco in central Mexico.[18] The plants produce a variety of nutrients and high amounts of protein. Spirulina is often used commercially as a nutritional supplement.[19][20]

http://www.spirulinasource.com/earthfoodch6c.html
Three kinds of commercial farms operate today. Lake farms harvest spirulina growing in natural lakes. Outdoor pond cultivation systems may use open ponds or covered greenhouses. Newly developed enclosed systems use transparent tubes or photo-bioreactors.

Ecologically designed future communities may incorporate microfarms. Computers can handle the basic functions of cultivation inside a controlled greenhouse or bioreactor. On a tiny land area, a community could meet a significant portion of its protein and vitamin requirements from microalgae, freeing cropland for community recreation or reforestation.

Spirulina has no hidden environmental costs and offers more nutrition per acre than any other food.

PDF: http://www.spirulinasource.com/PDF.cfm/EarthFoodSpirulina.pdf
This book has been called the \"definitive popular reference book about spirulina.\" 

Who is writing about spirulina? Should we move this to a general discussion page?

NOTES from 6/25
Chris McKay and John Hogan
Remind us of certain things: undernourished population. Billion are malnourished. There are a lot more coming down the pipe. There is a lot of food wasted due to shameful modes of distribution. However, distribution in itself will not solve the problem. There are number of different issues: deforestation, climate change (likely worse) --> leading to a drop in food production. This is not a small, discrete one solution space.
UN Millenium Development Goas: Get underweight children up to weight. Achieve targets by the year 2015, which is in 5 years. How do we sustainably do that? If we just ramp up our current agricultural practices, we won't be able to do this.
The Grand Challenge: Develop and implement robust and resilient food supply systems that sustainably nourish future human populations while restoring and maintaining Earth's ecosystems.
Thinking about this: we are going to turn agriculture on its head.
Highly complex process/system - involve developing convergent solutions that include: technological advances, economic, social and political systems; systematic interfacing with climate change and a variety of critical human/Earth systems
Team project is going to be a subset of all of these issues while we maintain an overall perspective.

We could develop food security requirements -- this could work as a convergent solution
potential areas to consider:
1. food security requirements development
2. economic/social/political issues
3. controlled environment food production systems
4. genetic engineering
5. water requirements - not trying to impose upon water team; this is for agricutlure (including technologies/techniques for water use reduction)
6. Food distribution
7. Managing Nutrient cycles (phosphoros = food)
8. Food safety (get food to people in developing ares in a safe way)
9. IT, AI, and Modeling (how do we bring computing power to help the agricultural sector?)

potential team activities -- develop an overal conceptual model of an indoor farm system/food system
integration in an urban environment
genetically engineered crops/meat

what is the overlap between space and these new systems
we could generate a road map to integrate indoor farming into the global agriculture in 20 years

create a model of an indoor farm system
grow some real plants!! greenhouse behind building 20 for indoor experiments. we could get some pre-grown plants.
chris can get water-sensing systems to test various concepts

other speakers: James from Rutgers -- using landfill to help make food and fish
Dr. Williams: agriculture expert
name: invitro meat from New Harvest
other suggestions...

Any questions?
Why is phosphorous difficult to get? How could we address it?
A: Phosphorous is like a metal, like gold. Nitrogen is in the air so we won't run out of it. Phosphorous has been mined, then added to fertilizers. It is an absolute requirement but it is a peak product. We need to conserve it and recycle it. It is in human waste, other forms of waste. How do we get it back into the cycle? It is not easy to separate human waste.

Chris: more potential activities
2 interesting things to look into: one is the idea of doing a system-level analysis of food, a top-down analysis of systems. conceptual model of the entire problem. the ways in which technologies can fit in.
on the other extreme: a hands-on project where we take some plants and wire them up focusing on water. focusing on ways to detect the water-state of plants, to give plants enough water but not any more. I'm particularly interested in that because it will give us an insight into how to feed people on Mars.

Mike, USA, question about in-vitro meat: how will something like that, which is just research in the lab, will fit into the scope of our team project here. 
A: Good question, observation. GE is beyond the scope of what we are doing here. That would be a trade analysis. It is so new, the overall cost is not well known yet. For that, it would be more of a projected, an analysis of the potential. You could also look at just what the process to make it is currently. Identify areas that would require further research/technology. 
Chris: This would fit into a top-down model, to figure out in what ways this is a solution.

Making food for cities doesn't necessarily mean that food has to be made in cities. We will need to keep some of our land-based agriculture as well. 

EK from Argentina: I've been aware that a certain amount of ways that agriculture is not sustainable. I've read somewhere that there are 6000 gallons of water: 1 gallon of meat. How can we make food sustainable so that it doesn't require fossil fuels? A second, is about sustainability. In 1st world countries, subsidies are provided to make cheap food. Large, single-crop agriculture for corn and things like that. Are there any specific standards for measuring the sustainability of food production? That might be an area 

Chris: We should look at this as a top-down systems-based problem. View food production in a global perspective. Water, fossil fuel costs, realities of improving the lives of people in and out of cities. 
How can you tell if something is sustainable? Sustainability metrics are difficult. Defining sustainability is difficult. These metrics are not fully integrated with the other systems. Defining sustainability metrics for food will tie into all the other projects. CM: This could be an output of a systems-based TD project. 

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpfood-Jul9-Team-Meeting
"Food for Cities Team Meeting
7/9/2010 
Friday 
Afternoon

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpfood-Jul14-Team-Meeting
"
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http://su-etherpad.com/tpfood-Jul5-Food-TP
"Assigned room in Bldg 583C for the first TP meetings the afternoon of 5 July 2010.
Food - Room 112 'room B'

Google group: https://groups.google.com/a/singularityu.org/group/food
__________________________________________________________________
TP Food

Steven Cronin
Robert Denning
Rand Hindi
Anders Hvid
Margaret Jack
James Jacoby
Zain Jaffer
Nolene Naidu
Sam Thorp

Existing pad: http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-food
Wiki: https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/tp-2-food-for-cities

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpfood-Jul12-Team-Meeting
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http://su-etherpad.com/tpspace-Exponential-Technology-Opportunities-from-the-AIR-subgroup
"
Organization of AI and Robotics for Space

I) Cyberspace Worlds (Inward Space)
Sensory Resolutions: Lower, the same, and higher than real world
Senses: Visual, Auditory, Olfactory, Tactile, Taste, Proprioception, Vestibular

II) Real World Outer Space

Purpose:
Mining
InterPlanetary Exploration
Planetary Surveillance and Reconnaissance
Surface (Planetary Ocean and Atmosphere) Exploration
Human Life support & companionship
Predeployment preparation for Humans
Predeployment testing for Humans
Problem solving & Analysis
AI SynBio
Terraforming
Intelligent Space Environments
Brain Computer Interfaces (and augmented reality)
Silicon based human brain backup

Robotic Capabilities
Telepresence/telecontrol
Self Healing
Self Reconfiguring
Swarming
Self Replication

Humanoid Robot Evolution (Testing AND matched understanding for control)
Humanoid Robots
Organic Robots
Remotely Piloted extraterrestrial aircraft
Remotely Piloted Humanoid Space Robots
Autonmous Humanoid Space Robots
Avatars
Remotely Piloted Synthetic Bio Bodies
Autonomous Artificial Bodies
Brain Downloadable Artificial Bodies
Nanorobotic Bodies (remotely controlled or brain downloadable) Human 3.0

Non-Bodied Intelligence
Narrow AI
Silicon based human intelligence
Super human intelligence
SHI built SHI
Space Internet (Space 3.0: Ubiquitous Interstellar Communication/Intelligence/Knowledge System)

Non-Humanoid Robots:
Satellites
NanoSatellites
Rovers/Swimmers
Extraterrestrial Inpace Sensors
Remotely Piloted extraterrestrial aircraft
Habitats (Human, Humanoid Robot)

Human enhancement/adaptation

Example of a combinatorial solution.
Nature inspired cooperative swarm of robots for planetary surface exploration

The 24 Problem-Solutions
Cyberspace Worlds [David]
Remotely Piloted Robots with Body Evolution [David]
Autonomous Robots w/AGI Evolution (Later Biological and/or Downloadable later) [merged with another]
Non-Bodied Intelligence w/AGI and SHC evolution (analysis and problem solving) [David]
Specialized Robots (mining, reconnaissance, inplace sensors) Falls under remotely piloted and autonomous robots.
Usage of AI-enabled robots for planetary exploration [Santiago]
Usage of AI-enabled robots for in-situ asteroid mining [Santiago]
Usage of AI-enabled robots for Terraforming coordination [Santiago]
Molecular nanotechnology for terraforming (highly productive manufacturing nanosystems produce atomically precise products) [Javier]
Mind uploading for space travel [Javier]
Emotionally Intelligent Human Companions for stress managements mechanisms in human beings and counteract [Yara]
-Having data centers for Knowledge System [Yara/Carlos(if enough time)]
Develop new design for different planet explorations-Swimmers [Yara]
Affective Computing for Emotional Intelligence Emulation [Yara]
Nature-inspired self-reconfiguring cooperative swarms for planetary exploration (5yrs) [carlos]
Nature-inspired self-reconfiguring, self-healing cooperative swarms '' '' (10yrs) [carlos]
Humanoid self-reconfiguring, self-healing cooperative teams '' '' (15yrs) [carlos]
Using the interplanetary internet (cloud-computing => galaxy computing) for enhancing the processing capabilities in space applications
Brain Machine Interfaces for Remote Sensing/Presence [Jan]
Space Intelligence Operating system (Open-Source Interstellar communication/UbiquitousCommunication/IntelligenceSatellites for dynamic application upload [Jan]
Intelligent Environments for life support/robotic habitats [Jan]
Mind-Emulator chips for Microrobots/Microsatellites [Jan]
Human Brain emulation for Super-Human Intelligence/Building AGI that can be embedded in exploration robots [Jan]
AI SynBio solutions (reproducing bacteria and Animals)
AI driven Synthetic Bio for air purification
AI driven synthetic Bio for 
AI driven synthetic Bio for colonizing other planets [Ronen]
AI driven synthetic Bio for teraforming [Ronen]
AI driven synthetic Bio for human enhancement wrt space [Ronen]
AI driven synthetic bio for human-like robots [Ronen]
____________________________________________________________________________
DO NOT MODIFY THIS TEMPLATE HERE
____________________________________________________________________________
Template: 
1. Application: 
2. Problem: 
3. Opportunity: 
4. Exponential Technologies: 
5. Grand Challenges: 
6. Other Connected Ideas: 
7. Estimate of the Potential Benefit: 
8. Who is doing it:
10. Time Scale: 
11. Convergence: 
12. Significant Bottlenecks:
___________________________________________________________________________
Sample Template:
___________________________________________________________________________
1. Application: Generating electricity, or controlling temperature in
space can depend on the thermal properties of radiators.
2. Problem: Radiators can be large, heavy, or their properities can
be degraded by contamination.
3. Opportunity: Single-Walled Carbon Nanotubes (SWCNT), arranged in a
\"Forrest\" have very absorptivity, and very good thermal conductive
properties, and could reduce the size of or increase the performance
of existing radiators. Bucky paper (1,4) represents a form of
material currently in production that could serve this role.
4. Exponential Technologies: Nanotechnology[, and/or Biotechnology,
and/or Neurotechnology, and/or Medicine, and/or Computing, and/or
Networks, and/or...]
5. Grand Challenges: Robotic Exploration, Staying There
6. Other Connected Ideas: Structural Nanomaterials, Nanotubes,
Positional Assembly,
7. Estimate of the Potential Benefit: Current black paints have
absorptivities of about 0.94 (2), but SWCNT have absorptivity up to
0.99
8. Who is doing it:
(A) Scientists Harold Kroto from the University of Sussex, and
Robert Curl Jr. and Richard Smalley from Rice University shared the
1996 Noble Prize in Chemistry for their work on fullerenes.
(C) Tsinghua-Foxconn Nanotechnology Research Center and
Department of Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, People's
Republic of China (1)
10. Time Scale: These materials have been produced in the laboratory
for several years, and are even available for purchase (4). It
appears that they may be ready for a demonstration application in the
near-term.
11. Convergence: Being in the area of nano-materials, this technology
could benefit from advances in nano-scale assembly.
12. Significant Bottlenecks:
(1) http://iopscience.iop.org/0957-4484/19/7/075609
(2) http://www.solarmirror.com/fom/fom-serve/cache/43.html
(3) http://thefutureofthings.com/articles.php?itemId=24/61/
(4) http://www.nano-lab.com/buckypaper.html 
___________________________________________________________________________

David (By Functional Need?)
Capabilities vs Purpose
Inner Space
Remotely Piloted Robots with Evolution
Autonomous Robots w/Evolution (Later Biological and/or Downloadable later)
Non-Bodied Intelligence
Specialized Robots (mining, reconnaissance, inplace sensors)
AI SynBio solutions (Replicating bacteria and Animals). 

Javier
Molecular nanotechnology for terraforming (highly productive manufacturing nanosystems produce atomically precise products)
Virtual spaces for space travel
Mind uploading for space travel
Human body 2.0

Tigist

respirobots: to solve the problem of oxygen in space

Yara
Emotionally Intelligent Human Companions for stress managements mechanisms in human beings and counteract [Yara]
-Having data centers for Knowledge System [Yara/Carlos(if enough time)]
Develop new design for different planet explorations-Swimmers [Yara]
Affective Computing for Emotional Intelligence Emulation [Yara]

Jan
Brain Machine Interfaces for Remote Sensing/Presence
Intelligent Environments for Colonization
Intelligent Space Operating System (Open-Source/ Standardization/API's/Interstellar Communication/UbiquitousCommunication/Satellites/Internet of space)
Mind-Emulating chips for Microrobots/Microsatellites
Open source/ open cube sats for development (OSCS)

Carlos
Application: Autonomous teams of collaborative robots for space exploration
Problem: Autonomous rover exploration relies on one single unit which has no means to recover from critical situations and, therefore been exposed to high risks of unrecoverable failures.

5 years:

Opportunity: As biologically-inspired approaches to robotic systems are becoming more common, novel bottom-up designs for teams of robots have been developed. The so called robotic swarms exhibit cooperative, autonomous, intelligent behavior. Their potential has been investigated on interesting applications such as disaster mitigation, in which a Swarmming Micro Air Vehicles Network (SMAVNET) is used for establishing an ad-hoc wireless communication relay [ref]. By implementing nature-inspired low-level local rules, this approach has great prospects of serving as a cost-effective alternative to current rovers, which are much more expensive and very limited on the effective area they are able to cover in space missions. 

Capabilities: Self-reconfiguring

Pros/Cons

10 years:

How do we scale this model? Self-healing, better resources management (power, etc)
More processing power allowing for more sophisticated behavior.

15 years:

teams of humanoids with more capabilities

15 Exponential Technology Opportunities

(Original ideas: http://su-etherpad.com/SPACE-TP-AI---Robotics--preliminary-ideas )

1. Cyberspace Worlds
1. Application: Cyperspace Worlds an entirely new domain that we believe falls under Space. Cyberspace is so different but also very related to real world outerspace, and is perhaps the most different application/problem/opportunity that the Space Team identified. Currently this is so outside the box of traditional NASA thinking that it is almost unrecognized as a new domain that perhaps NASA should explore. The creation and growing importance of this new domain is demonstrated through the U.S. government and military recognizing this new domain through the creation of the well funded CyberSpace Command. CyberCommand's mission is not specifical targetted at the human virtual visiting of this space. We categorize this aspect of the space as Virtual Worlds and these virtual worlds represent a new kind of space that humans visit and explore, but differes from real world outer space primarily by the fact that the domain is created by man (and more recently also machine). The \"New Space\" is rapidly increasing in sensory resolution and, because of it's increased accessability, holds more visitors to it than real outer space does. These virtual worlds will grow in sensory resolution, and then match and eventually exceed the resolution of the real world. Pioneering examples of this world are 2nd Life. Cyberspace Worlds is different than Virtual Environments of Pyschologic Well Being described elsewhere in the ETIR, which is a specific application of this technology for use during Real World Space visits. Our recommendation here is to consider recognition as Virtual Worlds as an entirely new domain of exploration and development.
2. Problem: Satisfying humankinds quest for exploration of Space -- in this case a new domain of Space called Virtual Worlds that are man or machine created in Cyberspace.
3. Opportunity: Use of Virtual Worlds for training, recreation, pre testing of real world activities, and treatment to the pyschological conditions of confined spaces in real world space travel. While today predominantly just a tool (flight simulation), game or life simulation, we believe Virtual Worlds will increasing be a place where humans spend more and more time. Already today there are people that spend more waking hours in virtual worlds than in real worlds. Real business is conducted, real world millionaires have been created, real eduction and business transactions are occuring. The sale of virtual goods is one, if not the fastest growing revenue source on the Internet.
4. Exponential Technologies: Computing power, memory, and the decreasing cost of computing power are exponential technologies that are quickly creating increased sensory resolution in these virtual worlds, and at the same time, increasing the size, complexity and degree of reality (and exceeding reality).
5. Grand Challenges: Human Exploration. Education and Inspiration. Bio-Medicine in Space. Satisfy the human need for space exporation. Testing of real world space craft, environments, human interaction, and habitats of real world people, places, and things.
6. Other Connected Ideas: Use of Virtual Worlds for training, recreation, pre testing of real world activities, and treatment to the pyschological conditions of confined spaces in real world space travel.
7. Estimate of the Potential Benefit: Improved success in real world activities flying, living, building, scientific exploration etc.
8. Who is doing it: Flight Simulators. 2nd Life. World of Warcraft etc.
10. Time Scale: Available now. Increasing in resolution, reality, and capacity each year.
11. Convergence: Computers, brain computer interfaces, modeling and simulation
12. Significant Bottlenecks: Primarily computer processing capability, cost of memory, development, ease of use, improved brain to computer interfaces

Remotely Piloted Robots (with evolution)
1. Application: Remotely Piloted Robots (with evolution)
It is likely that nearly anthing humans need to do, robots will be able to do, but robots have one significant advantage -- robots bodies can survive a sundry of environments that humans can not, making robots an ideal platform for a rapidly growing list of nearly all activities in Space.
2. Problem: Any physical (and with evolution of the technology mental) problem or task that a human needs to solve or do, could possibly be done or solved better by a remotely piloted robot. Robots can operate in space and other environments, do not risk human life, need no life support (other than energy), and in some cases exceed human capabilty especially today in narrow categories, though these categories are quickly expanding.
3. Opportunity: Extraordinary. The abilty to explore space with robots, and have robots assist humans, greatly reduces the risk to human life, and with time increases the effectiveness and efficiency by which nearly any space goal can be accomplished.
Evolution of Remotely Piloted Robots
Remotely Piloted Humanoid Space Robots (mechanical robots resembling human bodies have the advantage of being easy for humans to related to in terms of their control and sensory perception and because they resemble human bodies, make better platforms for use in pretesting an environment for humans, since their bodies are similar in function, size and form. Additionally, people can relate to humanoid robots better than than they can non humanoid ones. Robots can be designed and built to operate in Earthlike air, another atmosphere, or the vacuum of space itself.
Remotely Piloted extraterrestrial aircraft, ships, and submarinees: Similar to the Remotely Piloted craft on earth, these vehicles can cover very large areas with a variety of sensors.
Avatars, represent a long term humanoid robot that has at least it's external form to be primarily organic (like a human body), potentially offering a much greater and more accurate sensory perception, expecially with regards to touch and olfactory senses.
Autonomous Artificial Bodies are like Avatars but allow us to download fully functioning thinking, so as to function without a communication link or controller.
Brain Downloadable Artificial Bodies are bodies that the working thoughts of a person or silicon based mind, can be placed into for full functionality.
Nanorobotic Bodies (remotely controlled or brain downloadable) Human 3.0. This is a body made entirely of nanorobotic bodies. It looks and feels human, but is not made from traditional biology. Such bodies offer extreme flexibility in functionality, repair, surviviability, and sensory perpecption.
4. Exponential Technologies: Artificial intelligence, Computing power, speed, and memory costs. Communicaiton speeds. Bio-Sythesis. Nanorobotics. 
5. Grand Challenges: Robotic Exploration, human exploration, space resources, staying in space, bio-medicine in space.
6. Other Connected Ideas: Autonomous robots
7. Estimate of the Potential Benefit: Extraordinary. Robots will increasingly develop human thinking abilties, and are more easily built to adapt to atmospheres (or lack of atmospheres) different than earths.
8. Who is doing it: Hundreds of robotic companies. A few space robotic companies most notably those doing Robonaught.
10. Time Scale: Immediate, with growing evolution towards the future.
11. Convergence: Robotic technology, Artificial intelligence, computing power and cost, sensory devices.
12. Significant Bottlenecks: Primarily algorithms that mimick or exceed human thinking capacity, mechanical robotic technology, small power systems, sensory systems expecially tactile, olfactory, balance, and touch.

1. Application: Non-Bodied Intelligence w/AGI and SHC evolution (analysis and problem solving)
2. Problem: Solving Problems with human thinking.
3. Opportunity: Computer AI offers the opportunity to solve a broad set of problems that computers perform better than humans.
4. Exponential Technologies: computation power, cost, speed, and cost of memory.
5. Grand Challenges: All
6. Other Connected Ideas: 
7. Estimate of the Potential Benefit: AI can perform a variety of tasks better than a human, from landing spacecraft to managing life support balance.
8. Who is doing it: Hundreds of AI companies
10. Time Scale: Immediate with growing capabilties
11. Convergence: Reverse engineering of the brain used as a model to develop improved algorthims and brain computer interfaces
12. Significant Bottlenecks: Reverse engineering of the brain -- abilty to monitor spike trains over a variety of cells, model the brain, and understand it.

1) Application: Usage of autonomous robots with Evolution

Problem: Robots solve the primary barrier to human exploration in space -- that human bodies are designed only for Earthlike conditions and will not survive on other Worlds but time delay makes managing the robots from Earth very time inefficient. However, with the sole exception of the Moon, time delay makes controlling the robots very inefficient from a timing perspective. Even in Mars, our closest neighbor, sending a command to a robot and awaiting for its response to know the final state after that command was executed takes a minimum of 20 minutes per iteration. Additionally, autonomous capability can be critical for remotely controlled robots if the communication control link is lost for any reason. Autonomy is also important to releive the controllers from having to always control the robot. Autonomy also allows one controller to control several robots at a time, by giving small (and later large) tasks for the robot to complete. Robots also can operate in space, without life support or inside a habitat offering significant advantages in terms of space rescue, repair, and the capabilty to launch ships of greatly reduced weight since no life support system or materials are necessary. Robots can also be designed to survive much greater g-forces during takeoff and rentry, providing more efficient launch and recovery designs. They also do not need to be returned to Earth. 

Opportunity: With the inhospitable conditions for human life in other [w]Worlds sending robots that can withstand the conditions without mimicking Earth around them seems like a better alternative [than]to sending humans. Usage of AI-enabled robots that can add some level of discretionary action to the instructions received from humans. Some of the key areas where AI could be implemented include: navigation, energy management, sample recognition and analysis, etc.
Enabling rovers and robots with AI would allow for them to make decisions on certain areas, independent of human input, allowing missions to accomplish much more in a certain period of time. 

Exponential Technologies: AI, Robotics and potentially Nanotech

Grand Challenges: Robotic Exploration

Other Connected Ideas: 

Estimate of the Potential Benefit: The level of sophistication of AI embedded in the robots would determine their ability to function autonomously while not receiving instructions from the Earth. 

Who is doing it:

Time Scale: Some basic narrow AI capabilities could be implemented today. More sophisticated functions will be possible with progress in narrow AI algorithms and convergence of different AI functions. Eventually, AGI will allow for fully autonomous exploration.

Convergence: Robotic communication could lead to the use of many coordinated robotic devices, doing explorarion coordinately and cooperatively. Miniaturization coming from progress in Nanotech will help improve the hardware side. 

Significant Bottlenecks:

(1) Progress in narrow AI applications and AGI
(2) Resistance of human explorers to let robots do the job

2) Application: Usage of AI-enabled robots to do in-situ asteroid mining

Problem: Identification and extraction of resources from asteroids is a complex task that requires intelligence, but the conditions dictate the use of robots is more convenient than sending humans. Time delay is also a problem, since potentially mineable asteroids will likely be far away from Earth.

Opportunity: Asteroids are a great potential source of raw materials, both to replenish some scarce resources on Earth and to build infrastructure on the Moon or Mars. With AI-enabled robots, asteroid mining missions would not need human presence at all. Depending on the distance to Earth, time delay is also an important factor, so using AI could again provide significant help. Lack of gravity on an asteroid\u2019s surface make staying there more difficult. So an autonomous AI module that can keep the robot \"clamped\" to the surface. Finally, using narrow AI the robot could identify and separate those resources that are needed and collect them.

Exponential Technologies: AI, Robotics, potentially Nanotech

Grand Challenges: Robotic Exploration, Resource Availability

Other Connected Ideas: 

Estimate of the Potential Benefit: Mining asterioids could drastically increase the resources vailable to humanity both on Earth and on other potential locations (Moon, Mars). Processing in situ would reduce the load brought back and limit unneeded material disposal.

Who is doing it:

Time Scale: Several challenges involved in asteroid mining could take 10-20 years to make this completely viable.

Convergence: 

Significant Bottlenecks:

(1) Technology to decelerate and reenter the Earth or other bodies atmospheres wihile bringing back very heavy loads
(2) In-situ material identification and substance separation technologies

3) Application: Usage of AI-enabled robots for coordinating the process of Mars/Moon Terraformation

Problem: Making foreing celestial bodies habitable by Earth-based living forms will require the implementation of complex processes to generate significant changes in their atmospheres, soil composition, etc. Before those processes are completed, having humans physically present to coordinate them is, at the very minimum, impractical.

Opportunity: Further beyond in time we will have to deal with the challenge of adapting the Moon and/or Mars to be inhabited by humans. That could include modifying their atmospheres and soils, extracting water, etc. The ideal way to prepare those extraneous worlds before humans disembark there is to have AI-enabled robots taking the necessary actions to generate the needed environmental changes. That would include the management of closed systems to grow living plants, algae and/or bacteria in the early phases of the process, when conditions may not yet be suitable to any Earth life forms. Some of these robots could in fact self replicate, minimizing the need to take matter from Earth in order to accomplish the goals of Terraformation.

Exponential Technologies: AI, Robotics, Nanotechnology, Molecular Manufacturing

Grand Challenges: Robotic Exploration, Staying There

Other Connected Ideas: Molecular Manufacturing, Self replicating robots

Estimate of the Potential Benefit: Inhabiting the Moon or Mars would be a huge initial step towards explanding Humanity to other parts of the Universe. That would allow humans to continue expanding beyond the limitations of our own planet and provide a needed \"backup plan\" in the event of Earth-scale catastrophes.

Who is doing it:

Time Scale: Given all the complexities involved in Terraformation, a reasonable time scale would be in the 25 to 35 year range.

Convergence: 

Significant Bottlenecks:

(1) Too many to list for now.

AI & SynBio - general reference

Problem: Sustaining life on other planets would require establishing basic living conditions, including gravity and radiation protection, providing basic human needs, including brievable air, water and food, and maintaining a clean healthy living environment. This also partially applies to long space trips. Synthetic Biology enables designing new organisms that could help in many of the areas above. However, there is a gap between the DNA codes we can \"write\", and the real world requirements.

Opportunity: AI could help bridge that gap. Treating DNA as a language, with its syntax, grammar and semanthics, AI could enable definition of organism \"functionality\" in \"natural language\" - high level description, which is automatically translated all the way to DNA that can be \"written\" into a new organism. Such an AI driven Synthetic Bio system would take into account all the constraints, al all levels - from gene's, through RNA, DNA, and folding, all the way to the phenotype level. 

Exponential Technologies: AI, Synthetic Biology

Grand Challenges: Boldly Staying, Getting There.

Other Connected Ideas: 

Estimate of the Potential Benefit: Synthetic organisms could help producing and recycling air, water and food, as well as facilitate teraforming.

Who is doing it:

Time Scale: Currently we know how to write around 1 million genes, sufficient to modify single cell organisms. As an exponential technology, we expect to be able to design single-cell organisms within 5-10 years simple multi-cell organisms within 10-15 years. 

Convergence: Synthetic Bio could eventually lead to enhanced humans, and human-like bio-robots.

Significant Bottlenecks:

(1) Much of the constraint and mapping space between DNA level and high leve functios is not known.
(2) Resistance to artificial life forms and fear of the perils it could involve.

4) AI driven SynBio for space exploration 

Problem: Space exploration would require a human friendly environment maintained inside a spaceship, or in a base on another planet, for an extended period of time. This includes provision of:
- Clean air
- Clean water
- Food

Opportunity:

Synthetic Biology enables the design and manufacturing of new organisms that would help:
- creating and recycling air: synthetic organism/bacteria that use toxic atmosphere to produce oxygene,
- purifying sewer water: synthetic organisms that feed on the contaminating materials,
- producing food: synthetic organisms that process nutrient to produce food in solid or liquid form (such as milk, pills with specific properties)

In the context of space exploration, typially involving only few people, such solutions can be modular and movable, containable is small/confined/constrained spaces - tanks, rooms, etc...

Exponential Technologies: AI, Synthetic Biology

Grand Challenges: Boldly Staying, Getting There.

Other Connected Ideas: 

Estimate of the Potential Benefit: Consistent, cheap and light supply of human life needs.

Who is doing it:

Time Scale: Currently we know how to write around 1 million genes, sufficient to modify single cell organisms. As an exponential technology, we expect to be able to design single-cell organisms within 5-10 years simple multi-cell organisms within 10-15 years. 

Convergence: Synthetic Bio could eventually lead to enhanced humans, and human-like bio-robots.

Significant Bottlenecks:

(1) There is a gap between the DNA codes we can \"write\" and the real world requirements. AI could help bridge that gap.
(2) Resistance to artificial life forms and fear of the perils it could involve.

5) AI & SynBio for colonizing other planets

Problem: Colonizing other planets would require establishing proper large scale living conditions for an increasingly large population, including:
- Radiation protection
- Supplty of air, water and food.

This would require massive change of the environment to suit human existential needs - teraforming. 

Opportunity: Synthetically created organisms could help teraforming other planets, including:
- Generation of an athmosphere by transforming available materials into air.
- Transforming local soil so that it can support...
- Synthetic plants designed to grow in the new environment, making a food source.
- Generate water from locally available materials. 

Exponential Technologies: AI, Synthetic Biology

Grand Challenges: Boldly Staying.

Other Connected Ideas: 

Estimate of the Potential Benefit: Providing human life necessities by transforming locally available materials, requiring a load of bits (information) rather than atoms (matter).

Who is doing it:

Time Scale: Currently we know how to write around 1 million genes, sufficient to modify single cell organisms. As an exponential technology, we expect to be able to design single-cell organisms within 5-10 years simple multi-cell organisms within 10-15 years. 

Convergence: Synthetic Bio could eventually lead to enhanced humans, and human-like bio-robots.

Significant Bottlenecks:

(1) There is a gap between the DNA codes we can \"write\" and the real world requirements. AI could help bridge that gap.
(2) Resistance to artificial life forms and fear of the perils it could involve.

6) AI & SynBio for space related human enhancement

Problem: Space exploration, including life on other planets, requires providing human life neccesities during potentially long space trips and long stays. 

Opportunity: One approach would be to provide the necessary living conditions and needs. However, another could be to modify the required living conditions and needs by enhancing human-beings, adjusting human physiology to space conditions, including:
- adjusting for micro, or no gravity
- resistance to radiation
- adjusting for a different athmospheric blend and resistence to currently poisenuous materials.

Exponential Technologies: AI, Synthetic Biology

Grand Challenges: Boldly Staying, Getting There.

Other Connected Ideas: 

Estimate of the Potential Benefit: Dramatically reducing the costs and efforts required for space exploration and colonizing while increasing survival chances.

Who is doing it:

Time Scale: Currently we know how to write around 1 million genes, sufficient to modify single cell organisms. As an exponential technology, we expect to be able to modify human DNA in 20-30 years.

Convergence: Human enhancement techniques could also help generating human-like Robots.

Significant Bottlenecks:

(1) There is a gap between the DNA codes we can \"write\" and the real world requirements. AI could help bridge that gap.
(2) Resistance to artificial life forms and fear of the perils it could involve.

7) Application: Brain Machine Interfaces for Remote Sensing/Presence

Problem: The problem with todays\u2019 external BMI\u2019s is their limited resolution, inability to connect well to the inner parts of the brain, usability problems due to an abundance of sensors to be attached. Neurally connected BMI\u2019s afford surgery operations. FMRI and other imaging technologies provide better resolutions, increasingly in real-time fashion.

Opportunity: Portable as well as implanted BMIs with neural resolution can provide a much richer remote sensing experience compared to today\u2019s remote presence technologies (HMD, Caves, Immersion technologies, mixed reality). If remote robotics provide rich sensing opportunities from exploration, such experience can be reflected within the BMI in a much better fashion than today.

Exponential Technologies: Nanotechnology, Neurotechnology, Medicine, and/or Computing.

Grand Challenges: Robotic exploration 

Other Connected Ideas: Neurobiology, Nano/Materials Science, 

Estimate of the Potential Benefit: Full immersion with regards to remote places, wider bandwidth of sensing experience through real-time filters, real-time augmentation of experience.

Who is doing it:
(A) Fraunhofer IGD
(B) MIT MEDIA LAB
(C) Merl

Time Scale: 5 years limited visual/retinal,10 years partial real-time, 30 years full immersion

Convergence: 

Significant Bottlenecks:
Complete mapping of the brain, lasting sustainable neural/electronic connection. Representation resolution.

8) Application: Molecular nanotechnology for space based manufacturing

Advanced molecular nanotechnology (MNT) will permit extremely cost effective, scalable manufacturing of infrastructure and terraforming of extraterrestrial environments. Theoretical models (Drexler, Nanosystems) indicate that MNT will be able to fabricate a wide range of structures with high productivity and precise molecular control. 

Problem: Building extraterrestrial infrastructure and habitats cost effectively and sooner. 

Opportunity: \"Send your bits, not your atoms\" (Bob Metcalfe) If we can accomplish our goals by sending information instead of matter, the economics of space colonization change fundamentally. Robotic manufacturing will help us do that. At some point, fabrication will become an information technology and it will be as cheap, precise and reliable to manipulate atoms as it is to manipulate bits today. This capability will be brought about by advanced molecular nanotechnology (MNT). 

Exponential Technologies: Nanotechnology, miniaturization, computing, networks.]

Grand Challenges: Staying in space, human exploration, cheap access to space 

Other Connected Ideas: Self replicating robotcs, self replicating manufacturing, autonomous robots 

Who is doing it:
(A) Eric Drexler (www.e-drexler.com) the father of molecular nanotechnology and author of \"Nanosystems\"
(B) Ralph Merkle
(C) Rob Freitas

Time Scale: According to the book \"Singularity is Near\" by Ray Kurzweil, the technology will be available in 2025. 

9) Application: Mind uploading for space travel

Problem: Human bodies are not designed to survive and thrive in space.

Opportunity: In \"The Singularity is Near', Ray Kurzweil predicts that by the end of the 2030s it will be possible to upload a human mind into a computer. If this comes to pass, human minds will be able to reside in the extremely rich virtual worlds that should be available in the future, and also occupy robotic physical embodiments of different kinds. This will substantially improve the survivability of the human race in space and its ability to travel and adapt to new environments, existing essentially as a pattern of information. 

Exponential Technologies: Computation, memory, networks, resolution of brain scanning technology

Grand Challenges: Human exploration, staying in space

Other Connected Ideas: Virtual worlds, brain computer interfaces

Time Scale: End of the 2030s (as predicted in the book \"Singularity is Near\")

10) Application: Intelligent Space Operating System (ISOS)

Problem: Robotics, AI and communication systems for space more often than not are designed in isolated fashion. Hence devices and data transmission is mostly non-interoperable, isolated with great redundancies.

Opportunity: An Intelligent Space Operating System provides an open ecosystem for AI, communication systems and satellites, as well as robotics to tie in by means of standardized API\u2019s. Parts of such ISOS can be open-source and reconfigurable. Open access, open purpose, is granted as much as possible. AN ISOS ideally encompasses all technology within space and provides unique identifiers (IPs with encrypted authentication for safety/privacy). Similar to the earthbound internet (of things) the ISOS provides connectivity, packet switching and intermittent storage, smart communication processes and optimal routing, satellite access, swarm satellite tie-in, spacecraft and extraterrestrial station communication, inter and intra-stellar communications, earthbound internet access and geo-stational satellites, real-time as well as time-buffered information transmission, and inter-robotic communication. 

Exponential Technologies: Nanotechnology (Microsatellites), Computing Networks, Laser technology, Solar Panels/energy

Grand Challenges: Robotic Exploration/ Communication & Information Networks

Other Connected Ideas: - 

Estimate of the Potential Benefit: Eradication of redundancies, standardization, smart information transmission.

Who is doing it:
(A) Google
(B) NASA
(C) ESA
(D) JAXA

Time Scale: Incremental growth during the next years, inclining growth with evolution of microsatellites, exponential growth as soon as cheap access is possible.

Convergence: nanotech

Significant Bottlenecks: cheap access to space, but not essential

Brain Machine Interfaces for Remote Sensing/Presence
Intelligent Environments for life support/robotic habitats
Space Intelligence Operating System (Open-Source Interstellar Communication/UbiquitousCommunication/IntelligenceSatellites for dynamic application upload
Mind-Emulator chips for Microrobots/Microsatellites [Jan]
Open source cube sats for development

11) Application: Open source/ open cube sats for development (OSCS)

Problem: Developing countries more often than not have no direct access to satellites and little influence on application development, such as remote sensing, communication, and science. 

Opportunity: OSCS can provide a new platform for developing countries to improve data analytics for development. On open source/open access model is apt to spark innovation in areas such as remote sensing for pandemics, resource identification, communication, education, engineering, etc.. USE of NASA CUBESAT ANNONCEMENT for 2011 possible.
(https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=5f87fc37b28adbfc05942bc961468ac5&tab=core&_cview=0)

Exponential Technologies: Nanotechnology, Computing, and/or
Networks.

Grand Challenges: (Space for) Earth

Other Connected Ideas: Intelligent Space Operating System (ISOS)

Estimate of the Potential Benefit: Significant benefit for developing countries if combined with terrestrial communication systems. Financing can be achieved through Worldbank and NGO\u2019s with the benefit that loans/donations are transparent (Satellite/infrastructure).

Who is doing it:
(A) NASA
(B) ESA
(C) JAXA
(D) MIT

Time Scale: Immediately, increasingly cheaper in future

Convergence: Nanotechology, 

Significant Bottlenecks: Cheap Access to Space

12) Application: Intelligent Environments for colonization

Problem: Extraterrestrial habitats for human space exploration must provide a high level of sensing capabilities to assure life support. If humans are out to colonize space, long term needs for human, animal and plant survival must be met.

Opportunity: Smart environments are already emerging on earth. Due to innovation in sensor networks, sensor sophistication and miniaturization, an increasing amount of environmental conditions can be assessed. Sophisticated data analysis techniques allow for better modeling of conditions and actions to be undertaken. Smart environments such as a planetary or orbital station can connect to other nodes within the Intelligent Space Operating Systems (see ISOS) for optimization of the overall space system state.

Exponential Technologies: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Computing, Networks.

Grand Challenges: Habitats, biospheres, networks and communication.

Other Connected Ideas: ISOS (Intelligent Space Operating Systems)

Estimate of the Potential Benefit: Essential for survival and colonization, interconnectivity with other habitation nodes allows for overall system optimization.

Who is doing it:
(A) NASA
(B) Living-Planit
(C) Smart cities MIT
(D) Responsive environments group MIT

Time Scale: 5 \u2013 10 years.

Convergence: Nanotech and exponential ICT. Sensordevelopment and miniaturization.

Significant Bottlenecks: Dependent on cheap access to space.

13) Application: Autonomous teams of Unmaned Air Vehicles for planetary exploration

Problem: Current rover-based exploration relies on one single unit which has no means to recover from critical situations and, is subject to unrecoverable failures.

Opportunity: As biologically-inspired approaches to robotic systems are becoming more common, novel bottom-up designs for teams of robots have been developed. The so called robotic swarms exhibit cooperative, autonomous, intelligent behavior. Their potential has been investigated on interesting applications such as disaster mitigation, in which a Swarmming Micro Air Vehicles Network (SMAVNET) is used for establishing an ad-hoc wireless communication relay [ref]. By implementing nature-inspired low-level local rules, this approach has great prospects of serving as a cost-effective alternative to current rovers, which are much more expensive and very limited on the effective area they are able to cover in space missions. Such approach does not assume complex processing capabilities based on cameras or global positioning systems, but rather implements simple peer-to-peer communication within neighboring units and generated low-level data on heading, speed, altitude and angular velocities.

Exponential technologies: AI, Computing, Networking
Grand Challenges: robotic exploration
Other connected areas: sensors, solar energy, material science

Estimate of the potential benefit: Since August 2008, The Opportunity rover advances towards Endeavour, an impact crater 12km distant from the Opportunity\u2019s current location on Mars. At average speed, this journey is estimated to take about two more years. If SMAVNETs were deployed for this mission, assuming an average speed of about 10 m/s, the estimated time would decrease to no more than a few hours, given adequate weather/wind conditions, and, thus, allowing for a faster mapping of planetary surfaces. Furthermore, by implementing self-reconfiguring protocols, the eventual loss of any unit due to malfunctioning would not have a dramatic impact on the overall system performance, since the swarm can easily self-organize to continue its mission. The number of units incorporated in the swarm would depend exclusively on budged constrains, since the swam system does not rely on centralized control and, therefore, should scale well without having its performance degraded by a high number of units.

Who is doing it: Dario Floreano, the head of the Laboratory on Intelligent Systems at \u00c9cole Polytechnique F\u00e9d\u00e9rale de Lausanne, Switzerland.

Time scale: Basic models are already being tested. The current units are flexible EPP foam-made flying wing type aircrafts which use very cheap circuitry and sensors with the following specs: 80cm wingspan, 350-400g, 30min flight time. The researchers state that \u201cthe hardwre simplicity and low cost are key elements to enable flying swarm systems\u201d. Materials which may provide additional air-resistance and solar-power batteries that can dramatically extend the flight autonomy of such units are already available and should be considered on the design of such systems for planetary exploration, which can be considered in a reasonable 5 years time frame.

Bottlenecks: 
- Low resistance to adverse wind conditions due to low weight.
- Relatively low flight autonomy

References:
Hauert, S., Mitri, S., Keller, L. and Floreano, D. (2010) Evolving Cooperation: From Biology to Engineering. in The Horizons of Evolutionary Robotics, Cambridge, USA : MIT Press, 2010.

Hauert, S., Zufferey, J.-C. and Floreano, D. (2009) Evolved swarming without positioning information: an application in aerial communication relay. Autonomous Robots, 26(1) pp. 21-32.

Hauert, S., Winkler, L., Zufferey, J.-C. and Floreano, D. (2008) Ant-based Swarming with Positionless Micro Air Vehicles for Communication Relay. Swarm Intelligence, 2(2-4) pp. 167-188

14) Application: Autonomous teams of self-healing Unmanned Air Vehicles for planetary exploration

Problem: In adverse windy conditions, swarm-based UAV exploration is subject to losing units due to malfunctioning. 

Opportunity: A self-healing capability can make the whole swarm stop by whenever it detects that one of its units has reported a critical failure, or when it becomes unresponsive. Once the swarm has landed, autonomous coupled tiny robots can be released to perform basic diagnosis and healing tasks such as wire welding or equipment replacement.

Exponential technologies: AI, Computing, Networking
Grand Challenges: robotic exploration
Other connected areas: sensors, solar energy, material science

Estimate of the potential benefit: The potential of the accelerated growth rate on the processing power of computing units, aligned with the availability of reversible circuits designs which generate less heat, and therefore require less energy, allow for high level resources management, as well as self-healing applications.

Who is doing: 
- Josh Bongard of the University of Vermont in Burlington; 
- Viktor Zykov, graduate student at Cornell

Time Scale: minimum of 10 years
Bottlenecks: computing power, high energy demand

15) Application: Autonomous teams of humanoids for planetary exploration

Problem: Swarm-based exploration is constrained on the number of applications it can perform due to the lack of useful actuators to collect more substantial soil samples.

Opportunity: By incorporating simple visual processing and pattern recognition, a team of humanoid robots can more easily identify and collect soil samples, what allows for more accuracy on the data which is transmitted back to Earth. Since the state-of-the art humanoids are able to perform complex movement tasks such as running, riding bicycles, and climbing stairs, such robots might be suited for basic sample collecting and analysis in a large variety of terrains. In 15 years, these robots can incorporate even more sophisticated motor functions in their repertoire, thus allowing for robust self-recovering behaviors such as lifting off the ground.

Exponential technologies: AI, Computing, Networking
Grand Challenges: robotic exploration
Other connected areas: sensors, solar energy, material science

Estimate of the potential benefit: We\u2019re gonna be able to perform automated in-site soil sample analysis, allowing for detecting organic chemicals and even life in planetary surfaces.

Who is doing: 
- Honda

Time Scale: minimum of 15 years
Bottlenecks: computing power, high energy demand, motor functions, actuators

http://world.honda.com/ASIMO/

16) Application: Brain-inspired chips for (Micro)robots/ (Micro)satellites

Problem: In order to be able to build light-weight robots as well as miniaturized robots and satellites, AI and AGI computing will need to be computationally encapsulated within hardware. 

Opportunity: A promising approach to develop hardware for brain-emulation is the design of brain-inspired chips. This design aims at providing a miniaturized hardware platform for brain functions such at perception, cognition, recognition, navigation and decision-making, as well as actualization. A salient characteristic of brain-emulating chips is non-serial information processing, instead applying emergent, bottom-up computational processing rules 

Exponential Technologies: Nanotechnology, Neurotechnology, Computing.

Grand Challenges: Robotic Exploration

Other Connected Ideas: Robotic AGI

Estimate of the Potential Benefit: The impact of miniaturized, high-speed brain-emulating chips will be essential for all space-based robotics emulating human thinking. 

Who is doing it:
(A) SpiNNaker project
(B) IBM 
(C) INTEL

Time Scale: First prototypes are available today, further evolution will depend on advances in neuroscience, cognitive computing, chip manufacturing, nanotechnology, photonics.

Convergence: Nanotech, neuroscience.

Significant Bottlenecks: Brain modeling.

-----------------------------

Application: Nature inspired cooperative swarm of robots for planetary surface exploration

As biologically-inspired approaches to robotic systems are becoming more common, novel bottom-up designs for teams of robots have been developed. The so called robotic swarms exhibit cooperative, autonomous, intelligent behavior. Their potential has been investigated on interesting applications such as disaster mitigation, in which a Swarmming Micro Air Vehicles Network (SMAVNET) is used for establishing an ad-hoc wireless communication relay [ref]. By implementing nature-inspired low-level local rules, this approach has great prospects of serving as a cost-effective alternative to current rovers, which are much more expensive and very limited on the effective area they are able to cover in space missions. 

Problem: The highly specialized currently implemented rover systems for planet exploration are very expensive, and are very limited on the effective area they are able to cover in space mission.

Opportunity: robotic swarms exhibit cooperative, autonomous, intelligent behaviorSingle-Walled Carbon Nanotubes (SWCNT), arranged in a
\"Forrest\" have very absorptivity, and very good thermal conductive
properties, and could reduce the size of or increase the performance
of existing radiators. Bucky paper (1,4) represents a form of
material currently in production that could serve this role.

Exponential Technologies: Nanotechnology[, and/or Biotechnology,
and/or Neurotechnology, and/or Medicine, and/or Computing, and/or
Networks, and/or...]

Grand Challenges: Robotic Exploration, Staying There

Other Connected Ideas: Structural Nanomaterials, Nanotubes,
Positional Assembly,

Estimate of the Potential Benefit: Current black paints have
absorptivities of about 0.94 (2), but SWCNT have absorptivity up to
0.99

Who is doing it:
(A) Scientists Harold Kroto from the University of Sussex, and
Robert Curl Jr. and Richard Smalley from Rice University shared the
1996 Noble Prize in Chemistry for their work on fullerenes.
(B) The Florida Advanced Center for Composite Technologies
(FACCT or FAC2T) directed by Ben Wang, Professor of Industrial
Engineering at the Florida A&M University-FSU College of Engineering,
have carried out pioneering research on the properties, bulk
manufacture, integration into nanocomposites, and applications of
'buckypaper' since the year 2000, when Dr. Wang was first introduced
to it. (2)
(C) Tsinghua-Foxconn Nanotechnology Research Center and
Department of Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, People's
Republic of China (1)

Time Scale: These materials have been produced in the laboratory
for several years, and are even available for purchase (4). It
appears that they may be ready for a demonstration application in the
near-term.

Convergence: Being in the area of nano-materials, this technology
could benefit from advances in nano-scale assembly.

Significant Bottlenecks:

(1) http://iopscience.iop.org/0957-4484/19/7/075609
(2) http://www.solarmirror.com/fom/fom-serve/cache/43.html
(3) http://thefutureofthings.com/articles.php?itemId=24/61/
(4) http://www.nano-lab.com/buckypaper.html

Application: Nature inspired cooperative swarm of robots for planetary surface exploration

As biologically-inspired approaches to robotic systems are becoming more common, novel bottom-up designs for teams of robots have been developed. The so called robotic swarms exhibit cooperative, autonomous, intelligent behavior. Their potential has been investigated on interesting applications such as disaster mitigation, in which a Swarmming Micro Air Vehicles Network (SMAVNET) is used for establishing an ad-hoc wireless communication relay [ref]. By implementing nature-inspired low-level local rules, this approach has great prospects of serving as a cost-effective alternative to current rovers, which are much more expensive and very limited on the effective area they are able to cover in space missions. 

Problem: The highly specialized currently implemented rover systems for planet exploration are very expensive, and are very limited on the effective area they are able to cover in space mission.

Opportunity: robotic swarms exhibit cooperative, autonomous, intelligent behaviorSingle-Walled Carbon Nanotubes (SWCNT), arranged in a
\"Forrest\" have very absorptivity, and very good thermal conductive
properties, and could reduce the size of or increase the performance
of existing radiators. Bucky paper (1,4) represents a form of
material currently in production that could serve this role.

Exponential Technologies: Nanotechnology[, and/or Biotechnology,
and/or Neurotechnology, and/or Medicine, and/or Computing, and/or
Networks, and/or...]

Grand Challenges: Robotic Exploration, Staying There

Other Connected Ideas: Structural Nanomaterials, Nanotubes,
Positional Assembly,

Estimate of the Potential Benefit: Current black paints have
absorptivities of about 0.94 (2), but SWCNT have absorptivity up to
0.99

Who is doing it:
(A) Scientists Harold Kroto from the University of Sussex, and
Robert Curl Jr. and Richard Smalley from Rice University shared the
1996 Noble Prize in Chemistry for their work on fullerenes.
(B) The Florida Advanced Center for Composite Technologies
(FACCT or FAC2T) directed by Ben Wang, Professor of Industrial
Engineering at the Florida A&M University-FSU College of Engineering,
have carried out pioneering research on the properties, bulk
manufacture, integration into nanocomposites, and applications of
'buckypaper' since the year 2000, when Dr. Wang was first introduced
to it. (2)
(C) Tsinghua-Foxconn Nanotechnology Research Center and
Department of Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, People's
Republic of China (1)

Time Scale: These materials have been produced in the laboratory
for several years, and are even available for purchase (4). It
appears that they may be ready for a demonstration application in the
near-term.

Convergence: Being in the area of nano-materials, this technology
could benefit from advances in nano-scale assembly.

Significant Bottlenecks:

(1) http://iopscience.iop.org/0957-4484/19/7/075609
(2) http://www.solarmirror.com/fom/fom-serve/cache/43.html
(3) http://thefutureofthings.com/articles.php?itemId=24/61/
(4) http://www.nano-lab.com/buckypaper.html

Application: Nature inspired cooperative swarm of robots for planetary surface exploration

As biologically-inspired approaches to robotic systems are becoming more common, novel bottom-up designs for teams of robots have been developed. The so called robotic swarms exhibit cooperative, autonomous, intelligent behavior. Their potential has been investigated on interesting applications such as disaster mitigation, in which a Swarmming Micro Air Vehicles Network (SMAVNET) is used for establishing an ad-hoc wireless communication relay [ref]. By implementing nature-inspired low-level local rules, this approach has great prospects of serving as a cost-effective alternative to current rovers, which are much more expensive and very limited on the effective area they are able to cover in space missions. 

Problem: The highly specialized currently implemented rover systems for planet exploration are very expensive, and are very limited on the effective area they are able to cover in space mission.

Opportunity: robotic swarms exhibit cooperative, autonomous, intelligent behaviorSingle-Walled Carbon Nanotubes (SWCNT), arranged in a
\"Forrest\" have very absorptivity, and very good thermal conductive
properties, and could reduce the size of or increase the performance
of existing radiators. Bucky paper (1,4) represents a form of
material currently in production that could serve this role.

Exponential Technologies: Nanotechnology[, and/or Biotechnology,
and/or Neurotechnology, and/or Medicine, and/or Computing, and/or
Networks, and/or...]

Grand Challenges: Robotic Exploration, Staying There

Other Connected Ideas: Structural Nanomaterials, Nanotubes,
Positional Assembly,

Estimate of the Potential Benefit: Current black paints have
absorptivities of about 0.94 (2), but SWCNT have absorptivity up to
0.99

Who is doing it:
(A) Scientists Harold Kroto from the University of Sussex, and
Robert Curl Jr. and Richard Smalley from Rice University shared the
1996 Noble Prize in Chemistry for their work on fullerenes.
(B) The Florida Advanced Center for Composite Technologies
(FACCT or FAC2T) directed by Ben Wang, Professor of Industrial
Engineering at the Florida A&M University-FSU College of Engineering,
have carried out pioneering research on the properties, bulk
manufacture, integration into nanocomposites, and applications of
'buckypaper' since the year 2000, when Dr. Wang was first introduced
to it. (2)
(C) Tsinghua-Foxconn Nanotechnology Research Center and
Department of Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, People's
Republic of China (1)

Time Scale: These materials have been produced in the laboratory
for several years, and are even available for purchase (4). It
appears that they may be ready for a demonstration application in the
near-term.

Convergence: Being in the area of nano-materials, this technology
could benefit from advances in nano-scale assembly.

Significant Bottlenecks:

(1) http://iopscience.iop.org/0957-4484/19/7/075609
(2) http://www.solarmirror.com/fom/fom-serve/cache/43.html
(3) http://thefutureofthings.com/articles.php?itemId=24/61/
(4) http://www.nano-lab.com/buckypaper.html

--------------------

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpspace-The-Real-New-Space
"Intro

[Ronen: my comments/suggested in this form]

The Problem

Two powerful ideas capture our imagination on the impact of the accelerating technologies of AI and robotics in Space. One completely transforms how we think about exploring space, the latter radically transforms our definition of space itself. Previously we have viewed the barriers of space exploration being primarily the barriers to moving our life support systems into space and onto other planets (or asteroids). We think this view to be highly limiting.

The reality is that humanities goals and objectives in space are limited not as much by our ability to move life support systems into space, but limited by our human bodies. Quite simply, current Human bodies need an earthlike environment almost to exact Earth specifications. Earthlike atmospheres, which are changed by the very metabolism of the body being in it, water and hundreds of other needs from complex nutrients, molecules, to exercise, social and spatial requirements. Ironically, the body that gives us the primary medium for experiencing our surroundings, is also the single largest barrier to traveling and experiencing space. 

Our ideas or [of?] space exploration in a space ship, are as old as the ideas of continental exploration in a boat. The advent of AI, reverse engineering of the brain, and robotics are transforming long standing paradigms of travel, exploration, and experience.

We believe the current idea of exploring outer space in human \u201conly-for-earth\u201d bodies shows a certain \"poverty of human ambition\" and \"asks too little of our ourselves [our ourselves?]\". A long term plan to visit space in human bodies is basically committing to the idea of bottling up earth and exploring space inside of an \"earth -bottle\", separated us forever from the extraordinary experiences the interplanetary universe offers us. 

Is the future of human space exploration really visiting every planet, in a bottle?

Do we have to experience the solar system and the rest of the galaxy like a goldfish experiences our living room -- locked in some bowl of water \u2013 or in our case locked in some bowl of planet Earth? Seeing, but never fully experiencing, the breadth and depth of diversity and experience that other planets have to offer? Always being seperated from the environment we are so longing to experience seperated [redundant \"separated\"?] by a [a?] layers of inflated Kevlar clothing or helmits [helmets?]of acrylic breakproof glass?

Evolution of Physical Embodiments:

We believe the future of mankind in space can, and will be more interesting, exciting, and inspiring than the current vision of exploration with a human earth-bound body -- both can and should happen in a parallel initially. We believe we can explore the planets not just from the confines of a space suit or tin can on the surface, but from a spectrum of physical embodiments, beginning decades ago with space robots (satellites) that sent back images for us to experience. 

While evolution gave us the human body, our current physical embodiment, we have extended it with highly sophisticated and complex sensors, that have become so commonplace we barely think of them as virtual technologies. TV\u2019s allow us to experience multiple locations in the world in just a few seconds - live, or pulled back from previous time, in a way enabling us to travel back into time to experience something again, safely and at a distance. 

Moving to the present edge of fully operational technology, Unmanned Air Vehicles allow us [to?] experience the other side of the world in real time, with perspectives that a century ago would have been difficult to imagine. 

The evolution of the human body will continue with robots, even humanoid robots, remotely piloted in space [drop \"in space\"?- another one follows], allowing anyone to be virtually in space, but experiencing through the body of a robot. Today these robots are crude with limited sensory input like vision and sound, but this is changing rapidly. Robots are quickly acquiring touch, smell, position, and a sundry of other capabilities. 

Humanoid robots (robots with human-like bodies such as Asimo or Robonaut) will quickly increase in their sensory capacity, eventually exceeding the sensory capacity [\"that\" instead of another \"sensory capacity\"?] of the human body. In limited ways we [already?] see that today with robots equippped with night vision capability, thermal imaging capability, radar, seismographs, EMI receivers, etc. These provide electromagnetic reception in wavelenghts impossible for the human body to receive unaided by the technology. These additional capabilities open up a world that could not be received [preceived?] unaided. Humanoid robots are only the very begining of this \"body\" evolution.

Replacing our human brains has already begun and is founded in reality. Today, over a hundred thousand people walk around with part of the [their?] brain [brains?] replaced by computers. Cochlea impants provide hearing to many that would be deaf without them. The implants replace the function of the Cochlea with direct neural stimulation.

With the introduction of biosynthetic engineering, the ability to build biological bodies with body to computer interfaces [with interface to computers?] enables the creation of human, or other biology based avatars that allow for a remotely controlled body. The biosynthetic avatars can be engineered to survive environments that the unaltered human body would not be able to. It means we can experience another body, and one even altogether different than our own (such as a bats or dolphins). Biosynthetic bodies can be built to survive in environments in which the human body would not last even a few minutes. Biosynthetic bodies can be developed with more sensory perception than the human body, allowing an even more \"real\" experience than the human body. The movie Avatar communicates some of this idea -- at least for humanoid-like bodies. [2]

This is not just science fiction. Soldiers can experience combat from the other side of the world watching video from flying robots (remotely piloted vehicles). These experiences are real enough to create the same emotional experiences as if they were present.

A future vision of space exploration includes wanting to feel the Martian wind on our face, dig our toes into the Martian sand, even ride thermals in the winds of Neptune.

Our destiny for the Universe can not be just bottled earth elsewhere! We are capable of so much more. The future of AI, robotics and bio synthetic engineering creates a far more exciting future [for us?] with accelerating possibilities.
There are many reasons to explore space, but none as inspiring and humanly driven as simply the need to experience it. 

A summary of the progressive path of AI and Robotics can be described as: Telepresence => Virtual Reality => Brain-Machine Interface => Avatar => Full Body Download and Cyberspace life

Lets examine some of the the most important reasons to explore space. Backing up the human race from a whole set of known catastrophes ranging from asteroid hits that destroyed most life on earth at least twice, the dinosaurs being the most notable [ranging from ateroids to what?]. New naturally mutated viruses have eliminated entire species on earth, too many times to count and human engineered viruses pose new threats with extraordinary asymmetric proportions. The ability for a smaller and smaller [is one \"smaller\" enough?] number of people to harm or kill a larger and larger [is one \"larger\" eniugh?] proportion of the population is, unfortunately, growing with time. 

Global warming, thermonuclear war, environmental poisoning, and a host of other known and unknown threats, constantly threaten the future of humanity. Backing up the human race on another planet as soon as possible is a critical safety function for the future survival of the human race. We backup our hard drives, because we know it's a smart thing to do. It's not especially inspiring, and in fact it is often so uninspiring that many of us don't do it, and then when disaster strikes we're in regret -- but we just buy a new hard drive or a new computer.

There is no hardware store for the human race. While backing up the human race and gathering resources from space are important, they pale in comparison in terms of inspriation to extend our experience into space. Backing up is important and something humanity needs to do to ensure it's survival but it is a \"check box\" and once we've done it, humanities [humanity's?] drive will not just be [be just?] to keep making more and more backups. Thus, backing up the human race, with a extraterrestrial colony, while a critical function, is not a driving motivation. [you forgot my grandchildren again...]

Similarly, while resources are important, needed, and profitable, there are plenty of resources on earth, and these resources, at least for some long period of time, will remain more affordably accessed [accesable?] on earth than in space. In the long run, resources may be needed from outer space.

Physical Embodiment Roadmap:
The extension of the human mind outside of our bodies started decades ago, even on broad scales with radio and television. We experience visually, and with sound, [adiovisually?] events occurring on the other side of the world in real time. In some cases, like unmanned air vehicles, these experiences are not even from the first person [first person redundant?] perspective of a person on earth (say with a video camera) but from the perspective of 10,000 feet or some other altitude. The range of our experience is changing, and we believe a similar change is transforming our ideas of how we can experience other planets.
We\u2019ve been sending robots to other planets to send us back images and information \u2013 essentially extending our experience, albeit in relatively crude form compared to our bodies being their in present. 

Biosphere Backup

The future of the backup of the human race, should occur not just by having humans on another planet. This doesn't stop all those on the Earth from being killed and not replaced. A better backup, is to back up the minds of all humans and then place several backups into space perhaps on asteroids, even ones that leave our solar system.

Another New Space: CyberSpace and Virtual Worlds

Additionally, we previously viewed space predominantly as being outer space -- up and out, but we believe this view of space to not only to [to not only be?] be confining and restricting, but likely to also not represent [misrepresent?] the predominant trend of long term future human migration. 

Space is not just up and out \u2013 but [but redundant?] with the recent centuries creation of cyberspace and virtual reality comes [come?] virtual worlds or virtual space. These virtual worlds have the capacity to quickly exceed the resolution of the real world, in all sensory dimensions, and when they do, we will spend more and more of our time in these virtual worlds, where the limitations of the real world do not exist. 

Once this sensory resolution has exceeded the real world, it is altogether possible that we spend very little time at all [at all redundant?] in the real world. Virtual Space becomes the real \u201cNew Space\u201d.

The relevance and importance of Cyber space is not just science fiction. There is prior government precedent in this move. The recent creation of Cyber Command is [a?] definitive evidence of the acceptance by the U.S. Government of the creation of a new domain, cyberspace. NASA may want to consider this new domain to be one worthy of exploration. While cyberspace and virtual worlds are in their infant form, NASA has already pursued with considerable success precursors to this domain with virtual simulators, providing critical training to astronaughts. The simulators were designed for training, while the Virtual Worlds are designed and used for experiencing \"real\" life. Colonization (or at least visitation) to Virtual Worlds has already begun, and from one perspective is now exceeding the exploration and visitations by humans of outer space (approximately 500?) verses millions.

Similarly the creation of virtual worlds, is the creation of a new kind of space that humans can visit. \"New space\" is a broader new domain of the future spaces that we explore that includes outer space and \"inner space\" -- inner space being Virtual worlds. While today much of this space is human created, new virtual worlds are increasingly being created by AI, with little human intervention, meaning that these are new places that can be visited where no person \u201chas gone before\u201d. 

Virtual World is an under-representative phrase. Software games are now a larger industry than the entire movie industry. These games offer a virtual experience which is quickly becoming [a?] collaborative multiplayer.The people in virtual worlds are real (at least most of them [)?], [new sentence?] recently new AGI and AI run virtual people (and even pets - Ben Geortzel) have entered these virtual worlds. These AI people have existed for years in virtual games. The people are real, their communications are real, and the feelings, emotions experienced, and social interactions in the virtual world are experience [experienced?] by real human beings. Real classes are taught, real business meetings are held, and virtual money in the virtual world is converted to real world and back. Virtual goods are one of the most profitable new Internet business models. More suprising is [not surprisingly?] that Second life has already created several real world millionaires. 

While for many, these new worlds are quite foreign and hard to imagine [, nor?] anyone spending time in them, for [for redundant?] others, they [they redundant?] already spend more waking time in the virtual worlds than they do [in?] real world and this is [and this is - redunt?] despite the extremely low sensory resolution of the virtual world.

The virtual world offers a freedom unmatched in the real world. Teleportation, time travel, defying gravity and physics, ubiquitous computing and communication, and unlimited resources create a world with few limits. New bodies are as easy to come by as new places. Virtual goods and property are sold, people are educated, real contracts are executed with real lawyers in the virtual world, [crimes are made?] and economies, social networks, and norms are created. 

[2] www.avatar.com (this is only an exmaple

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpspace-Jul9-Team-Meeting
"Space Team Meeting
7/9/2010 
Friday 
Afternoon

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpspace-2010-7-5-evening-meeting
"Action items for everyone:

For the next few days, gather information and talk about your findings about a topic in an informal way if you like in our daily meetings (30 min). Meetings are not mandatory. 
On Friday + Saturday, make an official presentation up to 5 minutes per subject of 5 slides with regards to history, present and future of the topic.

go to people who have expertise to get advice. Fill in the online spreadsheet 

We will meet in the big room in B20 from now on.

Please go to 
https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/tp-1-space/reference-material

and the luna gaia report (uploaded tomorrow).

to download the final Nasa report called TP_MiNI_FinalFinalReport.pdf posted by Marco.

For the topic list, please go to the new spreadsheert Jason will set up. Pick your topics and mark which ones you will be working on.
thanks!

Space:

Planets

Moon

Sun

Mars

Asteroids

Aliens (Eric)
jill Tarter TED Talk: http://www.tedprize.org/jill-tarter/

Terraforming

Radiation

Doomsday

Time

Closed-loop systems, biosphere

Orbit:

Satellites

GPS: Santiago

Networks

Trash/Debris: Eric

Entertainement/Tourism: Santiago

Atmosphere:

Launch/access

Home:

Ethics

Culture

School

Policy

Business of Space 

Systems conditions for life on Home (and in Space): Eric

Fundamental Human Needs on Home (and in Space): Eric

Development

Poverty

Development on Earth

Urbanization

Waters and Oceans

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpspace-Jul12-Team-Meeting
"
Welcome to EtherPad!

This pad text is synchronized as you type, so that everyone viewing this page sees the same text. This allows you to collaborate seamlessly on documents!

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpspace-Jul5-Space-TP
"Assigned room in Bldg 583C for the first TP meetings the afternoon of 5 July 2010.
Space - Room 100 (center area)

Google group: https://groups.google.com/a/singularityu.org/group/space
Existing group (21 members): https://groups.google.com/a/singularityu.org/group/space-tp

TP Space

Ronen Amit
Tigist Ashenaffi
Carlos Azevedo
Santiago Bilinkis
Homan Chan
Michael Chen
David Dalrymple
Jason Dunn
Eric Ezechieli
Jan Jungclaus
Emiliano Kargieman
Aaron Kemmer
Erez Livneh
Sarah Jane Pell
Raycho Raychev
Yara Shaban
Diva Tommei
Dmitriy Tseliakhovich
Julio Valdivia Silva

Existing pad: http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-space
Wiki: https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/tp-1-space

meeting minutes (Jan):

Grand questions:
how to not HAVE to leave space after certain amount of time?
how to get there?

Project outputs?
ETAR: July 23rd
Scan the whole problem space, illustrate to others what can be done

Several topics:
1. how to choose only one once you have found all the interesting stuff?
for business, phd, proposal to space agencies, 
detailed action plan. => This would be our business plan.
Finances, logistics, communicating it to the stakeholders. 
!st step towards changing the lives of 10 bio people in 10 years.
combination of printed report, websites, imagery, I-phone app, every medium/tools can be used.
2. New space conference. People like Hudson will be here and speak about space tourism.
2nd week of August: SU organizes a 2-week conference for Nasa. To have execs get to know what is going on in the space project.
Preview to get to know the \u201ccustomer\u201d and the \u201csausage works\u201d.
If we come across names, books, and other things we might need, let Emeline or teaching staff know.

Pete Klupar coming in: Director of engineering, robotic type operation, unconventional concepts, cheap set of satellites.
John Hogan will talk about life support systems.

Crossovers? => Fuel cells made out of hydrocarbons such as Bloomservers. Will talk about solutions. \"There are no problems\".

Other projects we will sicuss and see: Lunar solar power, using AI; desert rat projects, biosphere, tools for excavations using robots. Crews who live out in a closed system.

Field trips:
Nasa 13th, field trip to Nasa.
Mc Moon project at Mc Donalds. 

What is our mandate with Nasa as the client? 
=> No constraint, we can easily look at private space exploration as well.

Michael: Direct vs. indirect innovation: What has come out of Nasa?

start by looking at:
spinoffs.nasa.org

Aaron: Suggestions where to get a good overview? 
=> Check reference material on TP webpage.
Chris: Excited about what is going in in Japan. ISRO in India, China in particular interesting for exploration with less ressources.

Have a look at proposed budget of Nasa for next year.
International Space station, what is going on in there?
Also look at the European space agency (low budget missions).
Roscosmos.

Eric: Biosphere 2 field trip? Eurotech involvement, super computers?

Chris/Marco: Everyone has ressources in their networks => outsource brainpower.

Marco: Micro/Nanotechnology for space. Ralph Merkle, self-replicating machines reports.

(Tools: Mindmaps, mindmeister)

3 topics for classification of project ideas:
1. Automation/AI
2. Miniturarization
3. Parallel processing

FOcus for now: Cast out the net. Going for solutions first, then back up.

Goal is to come up with a braod list of categories about exciting new technologies.
Emiliano: Let's look at things that have persistenlty failed in the past.
Chris: Look at books that have been written 30 years ago.

Look at all the ideas in the etherpad and check what is feasible/crazy/highly speculative.

Finding patterns => what's the failing of some of the technologies but also bureacracies.

Isle of man. 

How to think of more open, more sharing systems? Open-source? Standardization?

Prof. Freeland leading acadmics in space law. 

Daily 30 min meetings. 2 pm in the marshmallow on Tuesday July 6th, after that t.b.d.

Eric: how can we make sure we stay to an overall mission?

Rotate who leads the meetings.

Take aways:
Come up with a few ways how to sort ideas. 
Start categorizing how to collect things for the first report. E.g. \"Humans in space\", \"robots in space\", etc.

Two possible approaches:
Either describe end state of how space could look like. 
Or take research route: Where are we at right now?

The most important thing for the next days will be to find out how we should work as a group, how to organize?
Idea-generation process
Research.
Elect a leader or have a board?

tonight 8pm-9pm.
Daily 30 min meetings. 2 pm in the marshmallow on Tuesday July 6th, after that t.b.d.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpspace-Jun28-Lewicki
"June 28: Lewicki Space Team Project

To propose and vote on questions for this session, please follow this link:
http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10space
this site doesn't seem to be doing much, trying to add a question and nothing is changing
JG: Try refreshing the site or viewing the results

Dan: 5-6 people discussing for 15 minutes.
Then, put questions/comments onto etherpad.

Salim: 4/5 students still haven't filled out student survey.
Important session this afternoon on systems thinking.

L: Just in time engineering.
Background in aerospace engineering.
I've found that working in spacecraft, most people who call themselves \"systems engineers\" come from AE.

Slide: Jan 3, 2004, my office - voyager. Mars rovers. Phoenix, all the fun again.

Systems Thinking:
- to optimist, glass half full
- pessimist - half empty
- to engineers - the glass is twice as big as it needs to be

NOT systems thinking:
all types of disproportionate designs of a plane.
Systems approach: All parts play together in balanced whole.
2:43
[Slide in script: \"Specialization is for insects\"]

Not about details or big picture, but space between those. 

Ablility to focus on details while keeping the big picture in mind
Systems thinking is about being able to think big while keeping the details in mind.

Also about being able to bounce back and forth. 
Is thing doing right now, brainstorming a response to the big picture, THEN get to details.
About compromise.
Never are so lucky to find the best solution. Always the least bad.
Everything seems terrible. Pick one that seems least terrible.

Planning any project is all about the flow of activity. General at beginning. Codify in written form to communicate. Agree.
Take that,
get steps 1-10
When a ways along, you test ideas.
With rocket launches, you find if it works or not.
Ways to check parts.
Find things you can identify that this piece of the pie is going to do its job when it needs to because I have tested it, put it in the field, found it worked somewhere else in the world.

So, risk management is important.
Ways things can fail. Only limited resources.
Big picture on \"why your project won't work\" Agree on what will make it fail.

Projects start out with big picture problems:
1. Cost / funding
2. Will it work
More detailed things:
Example: Lots of fresh water needed, but not available.
Make sure you have access. When you don't, plan to fix it.

Get ideas out on the sidewalk. People who are friendly. People who are receptive.
Not only non-advocate, or someone openly hostile. If you can communicate to a stranger (my 4th grader) I can explain it to my managers.

Maintenance session - evolving, improving.
First part - learn from past experiences.
Grand challenges panel last week.
You heard why it is hard. What is in the way.
What do they wish they had.
What would be better next time.
Look closely at what the panelists were trying to say.
Go out and make new mistakes.

We've helped you start. Identify things you don't want to do.
This will serve you well.
Jot these things down on wiki or wave and it will serve you well.

Subject I don't like: requirements.
Do this this many times. Just generally unpleasant.
So very important.
Learned through 3 Mars missions.
Only way to tell everyone what you want them to do is to write it down.
Unless you write it down, things will be up to interpretation.

How you know you are done.
General charter to do good for a billion people, 10 years, positively.

Articulate in a way that there is a finish line.
Huge goal like that - never reach perfection.
80/20 rule. Can put 80% of effort into 20% of what you are doing. (pareto)
If you can free up time to focus on what matters,
it is OK not to have 100% saturation.
Greatest good fro greatest number of peoplle.
Goal: \"reach 90%\"

So, example:
Top level highest requirement.
Phoenix Mars Lander
Didn't have mission statement, but similar.
Three sentences:
- study the history of water in all its phases
- determine if the martian arctic soil could support life
- study martian weather from a polar perspective

We have identifed 5 projects for you.

What you need to do in your Team Projects:
Identify in general what you are trying to accomplish (big picture) - and get agreement with whole group.

Once you have those big picture goals,
Drill down into necessary steps chronologically to achieve those goals
This should tell us: what we have to do, how well we have to do it and how often we have to do it
Everything revolves around the statement.

Level 0: 
Assemble, educate and inspire.

What is Level 1?

Below are student suggestions:

Have a campus
A faculty
Students
Define what leadership means - a level 1 requirement
Define each part - get to next level of detail
Need some money
Curriculum

Slide: Assemble, educate and inspire leaders. [Wait. That was level 0.]

Actual Level 1 (taken from Level 0):

*Assemble leaders
*Educate leaders
*Inspire leaders
*Develop exponentially advancing tehcnologies
*Address humanity's grand challenges

Get to next level of detail of what Level 0 means 

What do you notice?
No \"ands\" simple and concise statements.
Language is consistent between levels
David: Verifiable
Quantifiable. Measurable
All these things have numbers.
I could say, \"Go out and change the world\" and you could release a butterfly.
You need a number to help set budgets, involve people, and most important, you will know you are done when you have reached it.
Not up to interpretation, means the same to everybody, avoid ambiguous statements
1 topic per requirement, avoid 'and'
*1 Follow the water
*1.1 land on mars and achieve power-safe state
*1.1.1 Deploy both solar arrays in less than 10 minutes
*1.1.1.1 initiate the solar deployment mojo

http://goo.gl/K9Fn \x3c- this doesn't work

3:06
IN planning Mars missions, on landing day, what pictures do you take: most important, iconic.
Similar for tourists. Eiffel Tower in Paris. In SF, Golden Gate Bridge.
Get target list. Get more and more details.
Requirements have opportunities to overlap:
Dinner in Chinatown meets seeing Lombard Street - creates intricate web.
I really don't like requirements, but I have respect for them.

It is up to you to decide level of detail needed.

Fault Trees:
- most failures are things we didn't think about
It's not usually things we thought of because hopefully we fixed those things that we thought about
- try to think of every way that it could break
[ diagram resembles a genealogy tree]
Nuclear regulatory commission.
With rocket, all the ways it could break, fail, prevent launch.
Could be guidance computer goes AWOL (Absent Without Leave - that is, stops working)
Most failures you make sure they don't happen.
Usually, \"we never thought of that\" when something goes wrong.
Easy and obvious ones are on fault trees.

Suppose water flow needs to go from A to B.

Fault trees can get depressing if you get lost in the details and miss the point.

Success Trees:
-What needs to work in order to achieve your goal
- More helpful when starting from scratch
- good for a \"completenes check\" on the issues you need to address
- helps focus your efforts, if something is missing it will be obvious

Slide: Approach Success Tree

Event Trees:
Show turning points chronologically that can cause the mission to end in success or failure
Slide: \"one you surely can't read\"
Very time based. Event tree.
Event tree for landing on Mars. All the things we would have to do before NASA would sign the check and say, \"Well done\"
Everything had to go right for Mission Success.
Obvious critical link is LANDING. Not negotiable.
There will be aspects of your project like that.
Goal: Get panorama. Suppose panning camera breaks.
Perhaps panning with still camera on end of robotic arm provides graceful degradation.

Change Control
Write it down and agree on it: The benefit is that WHEN and not IF you decide to change it, you will not need to argue about what to do with it. You will be able to know exactly how it will affect or change your project approach.

Advantage to having good requirements is being robust, ability to adapt to change

Managing Resources.
3-4 big ones.
1. Time (Schedule)
\"Waste anything but time\" for Apollo
2,3,4 teams working on same problem at the same time.
Like getting 9 women pregnant and expecting a baby in a month.
You do need to sleep for some portion of the day -- at least on a weekly basis.

2. Money
Could be anything of value.
Money can be irrelevant in places.
Money can solve many, but not all problems.
If you don't have money, you have problems.
3. People
Not just number but their unique skills and talent

4. Consumables
Consumables on space missions - good only for certain amount of time.
Water filter gets dirty after awhile. Resource takes time and money. Need to know when to change it. Available people to change it, etc.

We talked about writing down what you want to do.
Then doing it.
Planning to do it.
Programmers
Business plans
Grants
Building devices
Instruction manual
Testing
This is where it gets kind of interesting. If you track what you told investors, they will check that list.
Two things to look for there: one is widget that uses exp tech and grand challenge. Put together to spec. Most advanced. Most amazing. But doesn't do quite what you wnated.
Did you build the RIGHT thing. Solve problem you set out to solve?
Usually some unexpected result. Won't work the way you hoped.
Time/money/resources to fix
OR
Is this good enough?
Will top level objective be met? This is the real world.
Burned through money/time.
Can we be happy but not perfect.
That is the biggest picture.
Perfection vs Application.
this is a loop you go through.

Get to the point where you are trying stuff out as soon as possible.
In formulating final deliverable, demonstrate how it is going to work these details, prove you did the right thing.

Numbers.
Not just having them, but having access to them.
Google.org. Flu Tracking. Numbers were there, just made visible to people who could do something with them.
You'll have something - know when you are done.
Make sure you know when you have reached the person out in the field.
Where to apply your resources
Where you get feedback.
Measure how well they are working in the environment you apply it in.
Other place may need it than one you expected.

System Engineering Interfaces
We are all surfaces
Really important to understand when and where an interface exists.
Between 2 people you work with and 3 other people.
Btewwen the computer and a person being measured
Wher e your job ends and someone else's begins.

Division on spacecraft - command, control, top manager, ...
OR, 
Flat structure.
4/5 at top, all rest slaves.
Still need to konw how to work with each other.
Part of requirements is to know what they are and how to use them.

Standards.
USB - Universal Serial Bus
Much better than before standard. Use things that are common and available
Open source will improve odds.
Resist tempation to do (create) something new. You might find something around the corner that might solve the problem.
When it breaks and replacement must come from another continent, you might have wanted something that came from corner shop.

[Chart: 4 quadrants: Risk Desc, Mitigations, Residual Risk, NASA Standard 5x5 Risk Matrix following Mitigations.]
About mid-project.
When in home stretch. Go through exercise. Blank sheet, write down risks. Every risk from every type to every category that you may think of.

\"so and so is hit by bus\" Single point capability risks.
Make sure person is augmented.
Personnel risk.

Maybe you have found something in your exponential - works 99% of time, except when it breaks down. Maybe not as adaptable as you would have liked. Human would have helped, but not enough time to fix.

JPL: describe risk ...

Q: Emiliano - what about likelihood?

Don't know is an acceptable answer.

Risk will never go away.
We try to eliminate risk, but it is very expensive.
Perfectly acceptable to say, we will fix as much as we can, but give full disclosure to your backers - here is nasty stuff that could happen. Some things will be left over. And this could possibly be the consequence of this 'leftover'.
Concede that there will be some left over.

NASA 5x5 matrix - green yellow red - likelihood 1 unlikely 5 very certain (X)
damage 1 no big deal 5 really really bad (Y)

Maybe computer breaks. Really cheap. Perhaps a risk 4. Cost 1. Risk profile is 1x4=4

Really exciting things are kind of probably and pretty bad, if it happened.
Qualitative judgement.

Decide what you are going to do about it.
Either take every last dime to fix it OR live with it.
You either lose sleep over red boxes or spread resources appropriately to mitigate.

Process used for some time at NASA. Harvard paper. 
Very useful for making decisions about ugly choices.

systems thinking.
Ways to approach problems with amethodology.
Marco mentioned this: On Mars rovers.
Tested what we know. 
You can send ... upgrade on the way to mars.
Focus on what you had to focus on before launch.
But don't need landing stuff for 7 months.

\"Bathtubs\"
Would not want people twiddling thumbs for 7 months.
You have to find something for people to do during flight.
Schedule becomes extremely important.

Decision would not have arrived if focus was only risk or money.
But balance gets you there.

Projects: Opportunity and Spirit.
\"We can't afford to build only one\"
Needed both rovers to perform all of the tests. Another plus in building 2 is that if something went wrong with the first, you could fall back to the 2nd.

Bent Thruster:
Little socks that go around thrusters for thermal and other reasons
Test where all piecerst where all pieces were separated out, didn't notice sock got caught on end of thruster
Big oops!
Two choices: can probably leave it... doesn't matter where it's pointed as long as we know in which direction it's pointed - you can make the math work
Decision of not fixing the problem based on the value of the resources associated with figuring out the landing

Problem solving and System Thinking: Traits
*Identify the real problem - bent thrusters may be a result of poor process beforehand for example
*Assimilate, Analyze and Synthesize Data
*Think systematically
*Find Connections and Patterns
*Communicate visually, when possible - a picture is worth 1000 words
*Exaplain and illustrate by analogy and story - communicating between different groups of people may be difficult
*Set Priorities
*Keep the focus on Top level Requirements
*Be Creative, curious and solve problems
*Validate Facts, information and assumptions: Ask questions Never trust something that is handed to you. If it is a number ask why that number is handed to you. Ask how does this translate to making the life 0.5% better or worse.
*Remain open minded and objective
*Draw on past Experiences
*Manage Risks;

Growth Capability - Scalability and Extensibility
Scalibility - Don't try to solve the big problem immediately
Standard: not trying to reinvent what is already there

Having hooks in the system - useful to have aspects of your solution where you can hook something else in - solve problem A and then maybe later problem B

Scars - if you have something that isn't used in rev 1, keep it around because it may be used in rev 2

Best design is something from which nothing can be taken away.
Einstein: simplest solution is the best.

High level
low level
glue in the middle that connects the two.

In Phoenix, we knew days were numbered.
Not on rovers.
Resources had to deal with in Phoenix - sunlight. Available energy. Blue and red lines - need to heat house more in winter.
One of the more systems thinking/balancing things.
Great studies. People have invested their careers
On the other hand, an experiment could use so much power, the mission would be over.
When would we \"chew off our own arm\" to survive.
Continue to live to do other science experiments.
Going further and further away. 
Free variable was risk going to take.
Worry less about procedure - won't have a chance to do something again, so TRY IT.

Start small.
Everyone learns by doing. Everyone learns by mistakes.
Just because you have been exposed to ideas 
Plan to fail
Learn from your experiences.
When developing projects, reaching for big picture, make sure what you are doing is relevant. Start with small wins. Hopefully it has an exponential component.

From All Our Ideas:
What questions for the Space TP? Score 
Q1. Top level requirements evolve. How do you support that? 69 
Q2.should I listen and avoid trying to create something new? 67
Q3. What's the best way to deal with divergence within subgroups of students interested in different approaches for the same team project? 56
QQ4.What happens when requirements change? 53
\"Most economical driving directions\" option for google maps 25

10 minute break
4:01
4:14
Salim: Trying to get out of here early.
Eric: There was SECOND etherpad for this talk:
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jun28-20TP-20Systems-20and-20Tools

http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10space

Q1: 
Nothing is written in stone. At least at one point in time, you can agree. This gives you a point of departure

Q2:
I don't know. Where standards exist, you should listen. Standards had to come from something. Your solution may require new data

.... (missed this due to dead pad)

In rover projects, did it 3 times. Does take a different tone:
Programmatic risks
Facilities are not available
Technical risks: system does not perform well enough.
Do at least once if only to acknowledge how you will accept your fate.
80% of risks you identify - \"it sucks to be us\" - gave 15

Q3:
Eric- much of the work in systems thinking ad dynamics is about leverage points: maximum result with minimum effort or limited, focused resources (example the rudder in an oil tanker).

See here some resources on where to look for leverage points:

http://www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/pubs/Leverage_Points.pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelve_leverage_points

====
Very sensitive to local temperature - outside bounds, you are on curve to somewhere you don't want to be. Part of challenge is knowing those points

Look at bound on where you expect to be operating.
Strecth limits to make sure, on seomthing that varies a lot, to be able to exploit it.

Eric: Other topics. End early.
Touch on topics -
One is that later on we'll have Kathryn give infor about references and documenting them.
Off the top of your head, what reasons for capturing refs as you go along.
Any ideas of importance of web-references or other material.

Controversial topics, need strong supporting material.
Space- resistance to idea of space based power.
Better be capturing references as you find them.
Will talk more about that.
Talk about mechanics
2 Megapixel displays.
Zero energy 30 megapixel display My book. How to calculate power output of small turbine.
Building library. Assembling shelves.
Things still in hard copy, not on web that will be useful.
Efforts to link with other library sources.

Short discussion. Discuss variety of tools that we have off.
Etherpads,
Wave
e-mail
Wikis
and how we find areas that are useful for different things.
Won't converge in 5 minutes.
Glad you are experimenting.
Wonder if you have any opinions about preferences?
Systems?
How many on pad during lectures [many].
Useful?
Comments?
: Etherpad system useful.
Saving system is a big mess. All of presenations posted - 
very easy table by columns, topic speaker, attach every line.
record all sessions by audio or video.
Gary:
JG: Don't suggest it. Build it.
Marco: Pads find way to presentation.

Video: edit
code
Salim: team during summer is just recording
A few people recording various lectures.

Q: We would have the ability to go later?
Salim: we ended releasing about a quarter of lectures last year.
Problem is speakers use clips which are not authorized.

Q: So, delegation is a good thing.
Leadership
Delegated - trust everybody to deal with these issues
Single person focal point
Some people feel strongly about what is best
A system is better than mixed systems.

Will post paper, nominate. Silent voting system.
[How about
http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10nominations
???]

Eric: Where are notes going? Stable searchable way. Good to tie to portal.
Good to put into wikis

Powerpoints are supposed to go to Google docs.
Each section is supposed to have links.

Q: Possible to link all FROM schedule to etherpads?
Next level for teaching fellows. Another way to find information.
Hopefully simplify this.
Give you differnt paths.

4:40
White board.
Eric: Would help to have that organization.

Em: 7:30 talks will be in building here instead of B3.

Eric: Getting tools working -see and contribute to others.
Work distributed. Do more things, engage outside community
Go beyond these 5 projects.

[end of presentation]

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpspace-Jun24-Global-Grand-Challenge
"SPACE

https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/tp-1-space/grand-challenge-panel

TP Space Introduction
https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0B4vPhZkVxOc3OTk4NWIyNDktYTkwOS00MmViLWE3MTAtZjQ2ZDkyNWIwMWNj&hl=en

Chris Lewicki
Team Project Lead for Space
What we need to do is figure out how to stay in space. In a way that people can pay for and not have to rely on government

*To Boldly Stay*
Rapidly and cheaply robotically scout the Moon, mars, asteroids and other deep-space desinations to find safe and interesting sites for humans to visit
-see rest of of slide!!!!

Robert \"Bob\" Richards 
Founder and CEO of Odyssey Moon
What really means to be human beings?
What next?
All about to boldly stay.
Where will we be in 2050?

Will we have joined a galactic empire?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wupToqz1e2g - Pale Blue Dot - Carl Sagan

Exploration is a voyage of discovery and perspective. Planet earth is our home - where the future comes from.

Cosmic calendar, compresses the entire history of the universe into one cosmic year - http://www.presentationzen.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/12/04/cosmic_cal_dec.jpg

The MOON
Earth's sister world in a 2-world system

An 8th continent

Mars
the most earth like planet in the solar system
possibility of life or history of life

Asteroids, enormous potential - if we don't visit them, one day they will visit us! 

Global warming

The exploration dichotomy: What is the right mix, private sector, gov't..?
Astro-preneur (Elon Musk): Iconic picture: http://www.urbanchristiannews.com/ucn/16nasa_CA0-popup.jpg (Obama behind Musk)

Expanding earth's economic sphere
Historically expanded by private investment leveraging and commercializing government R&D

To boldly stay:
Rapidly and cheaply robotically scout mars, moon, asteroids and other deep pace destinations to find safe harbour

Create a sustained capability to send humans in the solar system to stay indefinitely.

Commercial hand-off
Achieve once - government project
Repeat success - business venture

Q: Rand, France: What do you think of that email that was sent out - the conspiracy?
A: Bob: Huh?

Rusty Schweickart

http://www.b612foundation.org/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rusty_Schweickart

Chinese word of crisis: \u5371\u673a
First character means danger.
Second character means opportunities

Biography: http://www.well.com/~rs/rls-bio.html

remember, the asteroid happened Dec. 27 of Carl Sagan's year of the history of Earth
# large NEA (near earth asteroids) - search began in 1999 for those over 1 km in diameter (yes?)
Diagram shown: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/stats/images/web_total.png

About 300 of the asteroids we have found have a nonzero probability of hitting the earth in the next 100 years

Once every 100 Million years, K-T impact (what wiped out the dinosaurs). Red curve tracks what we have found to date, so you can see that we are basically 100% complete on knowing all earth-crossing asteroids up to about 1km in diameter. We're about 86% complete at 1km. However, the Tunguska size object (40m) diameter can do serious damage on the ground. 1m objects, hits every 300 years. We often leave this to the \"next\" Mayor/leader. Anology of rock being thrown at your head. You only duck what you think might hit you, you won't duck what you don't know what we will hit you. Asteroid protection issue: Can't wait for truth because by the time it gets to you, it's too late to duck. Game over!

To preserve life on earth, you need to act on your best estimate of what's going to be dangerous. Probability of impact may be something like like 1 in 50, or 1 in 100 (example being used). If P is 1 in 100, and hits 300 years, every 3 years you make a decision whether to act. 

Image being shown: http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/files/2007/tunguska_sim.jpg. 200-300X the size of the Hiroshima explosion.

5-6 of these buildings = 1 tunguska
(diagram of Tunguska impact zone compared to the size of New York City: http://astro.wsu.edu/worthey/astro/html/im-meteor/tunguska.html)

Graph being shown: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/stats/images/nea_size_bins.png

95% we haven't found yet. The smallest things (30m diamater and larger) can wipe out a city. Our early warning system has started but has not yet found any (essentially) of the million that can do us danger. Important program. 

Top 10 ways to stop an asteroid: http://dsc.discovery.com/space/top-10/asteroid-stopping-technology/

What do we do when we find one that has our address on?
Smaller asteroid = Civil defense (duck and cover, evacuate)
Slightly larger, with 10 years warning = run something into it to change its orbit. (Kinetic Impact) 
If we have longer (80 years or so) to react, we can use a gravity tractor which is more predictable. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_tractor
If it's larger than about 1km in diameter, can use a nuclear explosion

Current Deflection Capability
Kinectic Impact
Gravity Deflection
-increase the velocity or mass of asteroid slightly to add 2 minutes to its orbit and avoid the collision. With this the earth completes its own orbit and the asteriod does not collide with earth.
(seems like this requires very early detection of the asteroids)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis

Risk corridor concept

Biggest technical issue:
Geo political issue, \"whose country is going to be affected\", which way asteroid will be deflected, funding, mulitlateral decisionmaking, assume responsiblity/liabilitiy, in order to potential save someone, someone else must assume certain increase in short-term risk

Early Warning: finding them
Deflection: diverting them
Decision to act: geopolitics

Commercial Applications and Considerations
Valuable ore deposits (oxygen, water, heavy metals)
Easily extracted, rubble piles held together by microgravity
Unlimited solar energy availability
Often binary or tertiary pairs
Microgravity environemnt, don't land on it, dock or hover
Cost-benefit analysis: consumption of non-renewable resource

How do you attach to an asteroid? surface is akin to pea gravel, debris held together loosely by micro-gravity

Q: Derek from Canda: If it's all made from gravel why isn't a nuke a bad idea and how does gravity work as a tow rope?
A: The artificial impact body actually adds the the impact and the majority of the material eventually comes back together again, the gavity deflector puuls on every piece of gravel using gravity. 

Getting Off the Ground
Gary C Hudson, founder of Rotary Rocket
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Hudson

Commercial approach
Cost of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) constrains everything we wish to do in space
Nothing else matters in terms of cost, energy, routine and reliability of LEO

Biggest Challeges to LEO
Financing and naive regulation (not technological)

\"Nothing else matters as much as low-cost, routine and reliable LEO access\"
Robert Heinlein said once you're in orbit you're \"halfway to anywhere.\"

The challenges are NOT technological. That is not the core problem. It's not whether or not we have a destination to go to.
It's Not heavy lift (50-100 tonnes on a single launch), what we need is frequency of flight
Flight rate controls cost per pound.
The problem is not enabling legislation and not spaceports.
It's not NASA opposition (historically this was the case but not any more)
The biggest challenges ARE: Market demand, financing, and naive regulation (regulation based on ignorance?)

Why has this been a problem?
-once in orbit you are \"halfway to anywhere\"
-cost of access has constrained us

What are the challenges?
-not technology!!!
-not destinations (constellation)
-not heavy lift
-not enabling legislation
-not \"spaceports\"
-IS market demand, financing and naive regulation
-NASA opposition WAS a factor (no longer a dominant concern)

Need:
-greater market demand
-will drive financing

The energy requrement to reach orbit is a contributiing factor when combined with available propulsion and structures of technology and lack of innovation due to expense of development.

What has been tried (or proposed)?
EVERYTHING!
-Reusables vs. Expendables
-One stage vs. multiple stages
-Ground, sea and air launching
-Solid, liquid, hybrid & airbreathing propulsion
-All gov't funded; all private funded; public-private partnerships

Reusability is important because it enhances the reliability of the device (you learn even from using it only once) and economically. The core problem at the moment is the lack of innovation (you canot start a rocket company in a garage like most of the other companies d

We can't really push propulsion and structures much beyond where they are today, or even beyond where they were 30 years ago. \x3c-- I don't think that's what he said I think he said we can push beyond what we have today but it requires R&D that we aren't investing in, we still use the R&D from 30 years ago, anyone know for sure?

Launching can happen from ground, sea and air. Propulsion can be solid, liquid, hybrid & hybrids. 
Nothing has worked yet!!!!! Because cost breakthroughs are necessary to make this a sustainable effort.
We need to get the cost well under $1k per pound, even down to $250 per pound and this is technically feasible.

Biggest Roadblocks:
Technical - not really, but reduce risk, cost, waste are welcome
Political - The core problem that they have commercializing space is Political, because NASA is an organization based on tax payers' money. Need an end to pork and \"cafeteria-filling\"
Legal - we need to have engineering based regulations and not emotional regulation. Criticizing FDA maintains a realistc tension that keeps the regualtors on their feet.
Financial - 
Social - none

so what was \"cafeteria filling\"? This is of course an example of a bigger problem where money is consumed upon things that are supposed to help progress space exploration but in fact are peripheral and mostly unnecessary
'cafeteria filling' can also refer to keeping jobs at government funded facilities - like the 10's of thousands of people working on Shuttle launches

http://www.nasa.gov/news/budget/FY2010.html

http://www.nasa.gov/news/budget/index.html

Rockets burn money...

Rotary Rocket Accomplishments
-Moved the debate
-Raised awareness
-Conducted a successful....

Rotary Rocket Failures:
lead investors prohibition on seeking govt funding and x-prize participation
let investors drive business plan
chased markets insetad of creating them, sought out gov't funding and x-prize participation instead of creating a new prize for example

Breaktrhoughs needed:
Risk Captial and Investor Patience
Perception Change - \"brother in-law\" problem, broken regulatory regime
Certaintechnological advancements would be nice - active cooling TPS, tethers in LEO, \"impulse engines\"

What's a TPS? T-something propulsion system? thermal?
Thermal Protection System (heat shield) - NASA Ames studies this, very important for reusable space vehicles

Traveling through space
A. Robotic Exploration of Space
Chris Lewicki

Space Access Shapes Design
- every gram counts
- needs to be very balanced for part of the trip

Velocity Change
7000 m/s just to get into space 
another 4200 m/s to leave earth
another 1800 m/s to get to Mars

In space, there is no repair person (yet)
with a few exceptions, if its broke you have to send a complete replacement.

Antenna couldn't be delployed and dropped bandwidth from Jupiter 4 orders of magnitude from
Spirit (havent heard for 2 months now) right wheel broken

Inverse Square Law
Intensity = Power/Area, i.e. inverse proportional to distance^2

Solar powered devices don't make sense as you get further from earth
e.g. Mars
20 minutes to take command, 20 minutes to send picture back, i.e. 40 minutes ahead to make decision

Radiation: deterioates material and creates bugs in electronics

MER Rover Thermal Vacuum Test
Robotics Origami

There is probably more computing power in the cellphone satellites than in anything larger, and this is something that we're not yet harnessing

Technology Readiness Levels

Readiness Levels:
- Basic Technology Research
- Research to prove feasibility
- Technology development
- Tehnology demonstration
- System development
- Launch

Inconvenient Truth
With great power comes great responsibilities
Tech to navigate a shuttle to another planet
---> naviagate a missle to another city (through a window)

Export Control
- prevented us from collaborating with innovative forces around the world e.g. Spain, Japan

What breakthroughs are needed?
-More opportunities to iterate
-more functionality per gram; per watt
- continuum of launch capability 
- send the bytes not the bits
- an interplanetary internet (with routers)
- Continually improved autonomy
- because it takes so long for information to go and come back
- how to get a geology PhD for robots, i.e. perform task autonomy

B. Human Exploration of Space
Dan Barry

Not convinced that the argument has been made that people should be in space.

Not about scientific breakthroughs, about survival ... we have to go.

If we become a multi planet species it's harder to wipe us out. 
Makes it more likely that we become an inter galactic species. 
Find Life.

We don't have to think too diferently than we do of ocean or antartic conditions.

Only two differences in space are zero G and radiation.
Not in a new place, but you can do new things (fly like superman)

Zero G issues:
Problems are few while in space - immune system issues and other small issues
Coming home is the problem - bone density, muscles

Radiation Issues:
Permitted dose limit: Up to 3% more likely to die of cancer
Can spend years in LEO without getting to that limit

Challenges of living on a space craft or foreign planet:
- Resources: have to use the resources inherent to that environment or wait for resupplies
- Relationships: crew selection critical
-Communication: 10 minute delay, true isolation

Challenges of deep space:
- Environment: all you see is space and the inside of a small ship
- Years in Zero G: maintaining bones and muscles
- Food & Water: recycling supplies and waste
- Lack of bio diversity: no meat and no plants that disturb the controlled environment
- Radiation: In deep space this goes through any material, only experience we have with high enery particles and protons is studying survivors from Hiroshima, will increase cancer risk to 5%, no adequate shielding for cosmic rays, some shielding can make radiation worse, cosmic rays can create other radiation when they hit aluminum

5. Living off the land
Chris McKay

In situ resource utilization (ISRU) in space, learning to stay
Looking to make long term bases on Moon/Mars 50+ years

we do not consume water, in fact we produce it i.e. grey water or waste water
only need source of water is food is to be grown there
also talk about water as fuel
- requirements for O2, H2, H20 is scenario dependent
- life support is always necessary

Scenario independent life support needs
2kg 02 per person day
removal of co2
purification of h20
food

ISRU
1. standard view
3. H20 on moon
3. O2 on mars
4. biological life support
4. Bio life support, cna benefit from exponential technologies

Sources of H2O on moon
1. recylcle
2. bring it from earth
3. mine it fram dark craters
4. create it from O2
3&4 not probably viable economically

First ISRU device was made to produce O2 from CO2 on mars but was never utilized (2001 Mars lander mission)

Composition of the Martian Atmosphere

Why Mars is important for human exploration?
Life, Past - did it have life?
Life, Present - can it sustain life?
Life, Future - can it sustain a bio future?

Could grow arabidopsis: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arabidopsis to demonstrate/test plant growth on Mars

The penultimate biological ISRU for life support
terraforming the planet

11:39

Q: How do you colonize without magneto sphere?
A: okay on earth to lose magnetism or to flip it due to the atmosphere

Q: What's the killer app for space? Where do the advantages come from?
A: Survival of the great experiment of life is what drives us. Immortality of the species.
To go to space and stay ... it has to pay. I believe the first trillionaires will be made in space.

Q: In LEO gravity deflection, what are the consequences of a near miss?
A: Need to protect the neighborhood, make sure they don't go into areas that cause subsequent impacts

Q: What is the practicality of using space tethers and magnetic sleds on the moon?
A: Yes rails make more sense on moon than earth, but requires a lot of infrastructure, tethers might be promising.

Q: Something about life diversity?
A: We have a good understanding of life on earth but anything is possible and perhaps even with new and novel life found a common ancestor could exist

Q: Space debris factors?
A: The shuttle takes about 100 hits per mission. Most of it is paint chips. Cosmos and Iridium ran into each other and created a lot more space junk.
Sometimes just making a small change to a single piece is the easiest move.

Q: What's the best funding structure especially regarding gov't funding?
A: NASA was the entity that enabled LEO and pushed back the frontiers and make them viable for future commercial interest. So the government is done when it comes to LEO in my opinion.
Gov't needs to be into equity and values. It doesn't necessarily need to be \"more like business.\" Gov't's responsibility is longer term and it will be far less efficient because it should be more focused on values.
If you're doing it once it is for the gov't, if you're doing it more than once there's likely a business there.

DB on monetization/commercialization of space
Short term: Space tourism ($200K for 5 minutes, $2MM for somewhat extended trip)
Intermediate Term: One way tickets for older, debilitated, injured patients, when die, re-enter in atmosphere
Long Term: Asteroid mining (massive opportunity: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining)

Commentary:
June 24, 2010
9:44EK: and Rusty *looks* like Clint Eastwood :)
9:45Bill Bing: @EK I think you mean Eastwood looks like Rusty :)
9:46David Hutchison: @matt: you put something heavy beside it and over many years it changes trajectory
9:46David Hutchison:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_tractor
9:49matt kern: so that's why you need to know so far ahead of time because you need to fly something out to the asteroid....
9:52Santiago: Rusty Schweickart was born in Neptune! And it is not a joke!http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rusty_Schweickart
9:55Carlos: Hey guy, check this out: Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment of Global Risks: http://yudkowsky.net/rational/cognitive-biases, by Eliezer S. Yudkowsky, Research Fellow - Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence. Worth reading.
10:00Mercy: :) right
10:06David Hutchison: What is \"naive regulation\"?
10:07Bill: uninformed...?
10:07Aaron: I believe it is regulation based on ignorance
10:13Eric Dahlstrom: 'naive' regulation example - we took a year to lobby US Congress to change the FAA regulation for reusable space vehicles from \"license the launch\" to say \"license the launch and landing\". To add those 2 words, took a year.
10:16Bill: Anyone know specifically the issues with financing? Is it a lack of perceived commercial value?
10:20Aaron: From my understanding its lots of reasons - lack of commercial value is a huge one... going back a few slides at all of the companies that have failed in the space industry (after tens - hundreds of millions of dollars of investment) vs. the ones have succeeded is a big issue, a current small market demand (we can only send up so many satellites), and the high-risk of space tends to scare investors away.
10:23Javier: \"An average half-kilometer S-type asteroid is worth more than $20 trillion.\" What are other big commercial opportunities?
10:24Javier: Ref: http://bit.ly/9Yh0Nl
10:25Brad Kohlenberg: sounds like a good way to recover the economy
10:27unnamed: beside the S-type asteroid, ho could you make money going in the space?
10:28matt kern: tourism
10:28Aaron: In 10 years? tourism and Business to business or business to government
10:28unnamed: Chiara: even research?
10:28matt kern: medical - i think some diseases act differently in space
10:28Bill: mining
10:29Aaron: mining is a good point: helium 3 on the moon was mentioned yesterday... but it's a ways out there imo
10:29Javier: @Aaron: Interesting. What kind of b2b?
10:30Javier: @Aaron yes, in 10 yrs
10:30Chiara G.: @Matt: you are right. cell biology is in certain case different when the gravity is different
10:31matt kern: \"At today's prices, a relatively small metallic asteroid with a diameter of 1 mile contains more than $20 trillion US dollars worth of industrial and precious metals.[1] In fact, all the gold, cobalt, iron, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium and ruthenium that we now mine from the Earth's crust, and that are essential for our economic and technological development, came originally from the rain of asteroids that hit the Earth after the crust cooled\" fromhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining
10:42John Graves: Bios:https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/tp-1-space/grand-challenge-panel
10:48Aaron: @javier: communication companies paying for satellites to get up, odyssey moon paying for a ride to the moon
11:07Javier: Virtual worlds in space?
11:24Marco: During the panel, please direct your questions to a member of the panel
11:25Marco: Due to time restrictions we may not have time to have all answer the same question
11:26Marco: thx
11:27David Hutchison:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arabidopsis

Tweets:
davidad
#SingularityU We'll collect your life insurance, launch a hospice in space, and send you as a shooting star above your funeral. -Dan Barry7 minutes ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU We will sell more one-way tickets to space than round-trip Who will buy them? The elderly and the disabled. - Dan Barry8 minutes ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU I didn't go into space business for money-I was convinced by Arthur Clarke that freedom requires an open frontier.-Gary Hudson11 minutes ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU Human beings are bags of desire. - Bob Richards13 minutes ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU Government is not in the business of being efficient. Goverment needs to be in equity and values. - Rusty Schweickart14 minutes ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU It's possible that Earth life is the best of all biochemistries, but I hope the universe isn't that dull. - Chris McKay27 minutes ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU You can run tracks on the moon, run a train to the velocity you need to get anywhere, and escape with 0 propellant. -Dan Barry32 minutes ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU I do believe the first trillionaires will be made from resources in space. - Bob Richards40 minutes ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU To go to space to stay, it has to pay. - Bob Richards40 minutes ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU Cosmographic diversity: We have to get in more than one place so one thing can't wipe us all out. -Rusty Schweickart41 minutes ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU \"We're talking about 'what is life' and 'how is it related to the universe in which we live.'\" -Rusty Schweickart42 minutes ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU \"One problem with Mars is that it's too cold--Wait, we know how to warm up planets.\" -Chris McKayabout 1 hour ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU We should learn to grow plants on the Moon & Mars using robotic plant-growth modules in a very near-term mission. -Chris McKayabout 1 hour ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU \"We can only answer the question 'Can humans live and work on Mars' by sending humans there.\" -Chris McKayabout 1 hour ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU \"You know you're moving somewhere to stay when you take your plants with you.\" -Chris McKayabout 1 hour ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU When you're a Mars colonist, you're going to spend most of your time hauling rocks. -Dan Barryabout 1 hour ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU In deep space, every nucleus of every single cell in your body will be hit by radiation every two days. Holy crap. -Dan Barryabout 1 hour ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU \"Schizophrenia? I don't know, I'm of two minds about that.\" -Dan Barryabout 1 hour ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU Have you ever had a roommate who snored? A big issue in spaceflight is crew mixture-married couples, single-gender? -Dan Barryabout 1 hour ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU Radiation is quite small in low earth orbit, because we're still protected by the Earth's magnetic field. - Dan Barryabout 1 hour ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU \"Zero-G is great!...well, it's really gravity that sucks.\" - Dan Barryabout 1 hour ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU \"The only things we experience in orbit that can't be modeled on Earth's surface are zero-G and radiation.\" - Dan Barryabout 1 hour ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU \"We should have people in space right now...if we have a two-planet species, it becomes very hard to kill us all.\" - Dan Barryabout 1 hour ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU \"I do still think we need to make a convicing argument as to why humans should be in space.\" - Dan Barry, astronautabout 1 hour ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU Because it takes so long for commands to get to your robot and so long for info to get back, you need autonomy. -Chris Lewickiabout 1 hour ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU If we had a network of interplanetary routers throughout the solar system, that would do wonders for bandwidth. -Chris Lewickiabout 2 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU We as humans learn well from failure, not from success. But we've designed that out of the aerospace industry. -Chris Lewickiabout 2 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU Unfortunately, the tech to naviagate a spacecraft to another planet is the same tech needed to guide a missile. -Chris Lewickiabout 2 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU One thing in thinking about exponential tech is that spacecraft may soon be sub-kilogram, thus cheap to launch. -Chris Lewickiabout 2 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU The inverse-square law and the speed of light are fundamental limits for power & comms on space probes/rovers. -Chris Lewickiabout 2 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU What breakthroughs are needed? Money. There's not enough available risk capital. -Gary Hudsonabout 2 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU The market is really human spaceflight. Self-loading, self-reproducing payloads are the best kind. -Gary Hudsonabout 2 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU Rockets burn money. And if you don't have money, you don't succeed. -Gary Hudsonabout 2 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
RT @switchGirl: \"I have many arrows in my back, which is the definition of a pioneer\" - Gary C Hudson #SingularityU...http://fb.me/D9EmJ3d2about 2 hours ago via mobile web
#SingularityU We're producing more lawyers than engineers in this country. -Gary Hudsonabout 2 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU The problem with commercial space is that NASA's still only spending 1% on it. Hopefully that will change to 10%. -Gary Hudsonabout 2 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU The bulk of the funding for commercial spaceflight so far is actually government funding. -Gary Hudsonabout 2 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU What's been tried in launch tech? Everything. One-stage, multi-stage, sea, air,... but the cost isn't low enough. -Gary Hudsonabout 2 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU Why are launch vehicles costly? They're disposable, & hard to test. Energy req's only a factor with current tech. -Gary Hudsonabout 2 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU Once you're in orbit, you're halfway to anywhere -Robert Heinlein (no, he's not here, he was quoted)about 2 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU Gravity tractor: hovers next to an asteroid with ion engines, pulling it using gravity as a very weak rope. -Rusty Schweickartabout 2 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU You can't land on an asteroid and run around. If you try, gravity's so low, you'll reach escape velocity. -Rusty Schweickartabout 2 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU Asteroid issues are detection, deflection, and geopolitics. If we get hit, it'll be the last that failed. -Rusty Schweickartabout 2 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU The fundamental point in asteroid protection is that in order to drop risk to zero, some must compromise. -Rusty Schweickartabout 2 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU At the time action is needed, you won't know what country will be hit, if any: a serious geopolitical issue.-Rusty Schweickartabout 2 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU We don't make perfect measurements. That's the problem with asteroid predictions. -Rusty Schweickartabout 3 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU If you have a few years' warning, you can adjust an asteroid's speed by only 1 cm/sec to make it come late. -Rusty Schweickartabout 3 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU Four strategies to asteroid defense. Evacuating the area, kinetic impact, gravity tractor, or nuking it. -Rusty Schweickartabout 3 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU If someone's throwing rocks at you, you duck before you know they'll hit you - otherwise you'll be too late.-Rusty Schweickartabout 3 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU We know about most of the >1km asteroids, but the Tunkusga event was caused by a 40m diameter asteroid. - Rusty Schweickartabout 3 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU About 300 asteroids have been discovered that have a nonzero chance of impacting the Earth. - Rusty Schweickartabout 3 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU There are resources on the asteroids - we don't have to dig up the Earth to get them. Plenty of energy. - Rusty Schweickartabout 3 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU \"We're just as vulnerable as the dinosaurs, but we don't have to be.\" - Rusty Schweickartabout 3 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU How to improve 10^9+ lives through space exploration? \"Save their butts and give them resources.\" - Rusty Schweickartabout 3 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU Rusty Schweickart, Apollo 9 astronaut, now coming to the stage!about 3 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU If you're doing something once, it's likely a gov't project. If you're doing it more than once, it's business. -Bob Richardsabout 3 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU Our project is \"to boldly stay\" not \"to boldly go.\" To understand hazards and resources and space sustainability.-Bob Richardsabout 3 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU Our history of going to space has been predominated by government. What's the right mix with the private sector? -Bob Richardsabout 3 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU The Moon is a convenient stepping stone, but Mars is more similar to Earth, and so more valuable to explore. -Bob Richardsabout 3 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU How would an extraterrestrial civilization rate our stewardship of our little speck? -Bob Richardsabout 3 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU We've learned that exploration is a voyage of perspective. We live on a tiny speck of the galaxy. -Bob Richardsabout 3 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU Where will we be in 2050? Still trying to solve Earth's problems? On other planets? Or throughout the galaxy? -Bob Richardsabout 3 hours ago via Duo for iPhone
#SingularityU \"Space\" grand challenge presentation just began. How does space tech impact a billion people? We'll find out...about 3 hours ago via Duo for iPhone

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http://su-etherpad.com/tpupcycle-Aug7-TomTerraCycle
"TerraCycle - http://www.terracycle.net/
Tom Szaky - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Szaky
email: tom@terracycle.net
Good friends of Tom: www.recyclebank.com - willing to connect us with them.

Tom's Intro
20$ in sales - canada, us, brazil, ireland, UK, turkey, israel, sweeden, france

everything has an end of life, most aren't recyclable

sun chips bag, need special handling (not landfill or consumer compost, uses terracycle as method)

target #1-#3 companies in every sector

28 waste streams currently, ~1 new one each week

coming up: juice bags, pet food bags, expired pills and pill packaging

logitech, peripheral collection

with waste exchange, think about the transport also (razor blades, hair, blood, skin...)

major success collecting funding

where we make the program available
people who are interested in that ake a box
once the box is full you download a shipping label and ship it to our distribution center
UPS Free shipping in the US. Other countries have arrangments with local postal services.

once it's in there, we give a little morney to the collector and then donate the rest 
2Cent a box donation to charity of choice ($2-3M now)

On our end we do the separation e.g. cosmetics
no manufacturing of products directly
material scientists evaluate the materials and come up with ideas

squeezing potato chip bags together creates fabric
glue on packaging
injection molding

textile from chip bag, RPET
we create the materials, collection and separation but there is a massive intellectual property issue

IP issue if you show logos - distinct shapes from coke is registered copyright need approval. 

We go to manufacturing companies - Rubermaid, Hasbrow, Timberland

cork for sole, wrappers for shoe

as long as >0% non-virgin material in original product, the project can get approved

juice pouches to plywood

no competition - brands are asking them to open everywhere

5B juice pouches a year - first year collected 20,000 now at 75M (1.5% of entire waste stream) - this is all crowd sourced - goal is ~25-30%
water bottles: 25% recycled, 75% thrown out

CapriSun - $80M advertising, will divert 1/4 to TerraCycle

New in January 2011, World of Waste, focus on everything consumers touch
Look to wallmart for waste streams
Set up a system where everything is collected

Brands pay TC to collect - this covers donation, shipping, handling, storage
Biggest cost is transportation, then donations, then warehouse...

Material team's goal is to move material FAST out of warehouse.

Sometimes amalgamate for 2-3 years to get enough of a material to do something with it, but when it a fast moving product, then storage is usually not an issue.

Licensing is part of agreement with Brand. Benefit to brand is a system of control of their product waste stream.

one challenge that you will be facing will be an intelectual property challenge

Strange concept - it's not yours even when it's waste

biggest issue with products is the use of mulitple materials instead of a single polymer. terrycycle is influencing design changes of products.

Why is polypropylene not recycled? It shoul be but there is such a fragmented recycling industry that it isn't happeneing...

Brad: have you had companies that want to be vague about their waste?
Tom: DVD industry (crates of DVDs straight to landfill), we don't want to show that our product is a waste because they want to portray it as a collectible

Also, greeting cards, these products are so cheap to manufacture that they literally go from production to waste....

Only pre-consumer side collected is the same as what would be collected post-consumer

No capital equipment - 

Terracycle is a supply chain creator. once its up an running, then it's just a matter of growing the supply chain.

Container in from of WalMart, many different holes where consumers can throw waste. starting in january on east coast. eventually, don't want to have a wall with hundreds of holes, and will want the separation to happen on the back end.

lauren: what about industries that will become valuable eventually, will you pull out?
Tom: positive and negative value recycling streams - we don't touch positive recycling because we aren't relavent. 

Terracycle focuses on non-recyclable negative economic streams. if the waste is recyclable (eg aluminum cans - positive economic stream) then terracycle will not go after it.

industrial waste exchangers already exist. waste is easy when it is in big loads at the plant - the plant manager will want to deal with it at the plant somehow. they are already thinking about it. but may only have a level 2 (scale 1-10) solution. market need is to develop higher level more effecient solutions in the industrial sector.

TC is not a waste exchange - only if it's exactly what we're looking for and you're a large company are you relevant.

Zain: difference because you touch the waste and we won't touch it...
Tom: inconsistent waste palettes a concern...

Everson: Have you considered looking into industrial waste?

Example: Caprisun - trilaminant (Al + two other plastics). 500M pouches. Plastic was liquified off (for biofuel) and Al collected. Low level soln. Terracycle investigated the system and determined you would granulize and extrude out the plastic for plasticized lumber. Much better solution. Vol for consumer related waste is MASSIVE. 3 truck loads/day of caprisun bags direct from factory. Finance has to be number one. If the story can be leveraged better, that also helps.

Europe - 50% of all waste is burned. US - 5% of all waste is burned (much more land available).

Unilever Butter Tubs:
Cutting holes in the bottom of them and selling them to gardens for flower pots
Recyclng - only values the polymer, not the shape
Re-use/Upcycle would value the shape and the ploymer.
Upcycling is limited by volume - not that many products out there that can be upcycled.

INTRO TO WASTE EXCHANGE
either we create market place where you bid or have narrow AI that matches

Tom: things to consider:
1. waste streams of opportunity will be those where the buyer and seller have a disconnect. Terracycle's science team creates solution and connects the buyer and seller.
2. many companies aren't in the business of conversion. Who is going to do this? (Example, company will only take granularized pouches to make lumber, not the raw waste...)
3. No company has every allowed Terracycle to identify companies with pre-consumer waste. They don't even want the consumer to know that there's pre-consumer waste
4. Security issue - Kraft food, 30 FTE involved in food security. People steal Kraft waste food, and resell in china which dilutes the brand. TC has security to bring the material in, must damage the product so that it cannot be resold in another market. Chanel glasses need to be broken before leaving. 

Lauren: do you ever get to go through entire streams entirely?
Tom: yes

Identify low hanging fruit - supply chians where the process is so bad that they're willing to do something. 1. identify economic saving for company pre-consumer. PNL is most important for plant manager. 2. how can they leverage it in CSR reports, PR. 3. on post-consumer side it is all about IMAGE.

100% of money for these programs, comes from marketing team...Terracycle never collects back end waste from company unless they first have a front end cunsumer collection agreement in place (ie. usually means money from the company's marketing dept.)

Caprisun - $255M inc in sales from 2008 to 2009. cause Caprisun went to walmart and told them they the product is now eco-friendly. so buyer at walmart gave caprisun more space than minutemaid. even though Terracycle can collect any bag (caprisun and minutemaid) only caprisun funds and has exclusivity. exclusivity is req'd in the first few years.

EcoOption - private label versions of terracycle so that terracycle can get around the exclusivity between competitive brands.

Terracycle is able to generate $100K-10M a year through marketing partnerships with brands.

National Geographic August 21st. GarbageMoguls. Terracycle TV Series.

RecycleBank.com -> increases recycling rates from 20% to 90%

Tom's top 5 market opportunities in waste (will email Zain):
1. 
2. 
3. 
4. 
5. 

Identify waste that is not being collected in large volumes!

Lauren: Tom, what gave you the interest to drive this?
Tom: ...very little innovation in waste...

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpupcycle-July-28-Team-Meeting
"ETIR Discussion:
We are finished with the problem space - work on the solutions

Compared to energy, our report was really long (4pgs)

Let's work on the quality (mostly for the immediate team) and not the quantity

Split into a small group to work on the ETIR - will meet later to discuss

Waste Water treatment visit
biggest problems:
desalination
recycling water
psychological hurdles of reusing cleaned waste water

5 cities

overflow when it rains into the bay
UV is more cost effective than clorine is overall system cost
technology is quite old

using ash from waste water as top soil if you could pre-treat to remove metals
copper piping in the area may not be common in other areas

water in palo alto comes from yosemite (120 miles away)
which is why they are trying to reduce the water usage in the area

Tony Seber
book with cases that are adviseable business-wise - little smart grids in closed environments

challenges viability of nuclear power because of subsidies

Bloom Energy
create large fuel cells - $800K for one box, 100kW/hour
permanent structure but potentially more portable in future

use of stacking and special paint.

gas in (maybe biofuels in future)

interested in working with solar 

runs at 850C, closed-loop system

use waste stream to scale up the business??? scale down prices??

woman who does research works at NASA Ames

no platinum, sand-based silicon

some waste/CO2 waste 

methane:
natural gas etf: (shows drop in prices)
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UNG+Interactive#symbol=UNG;range=5y

horizontal drilling
http://www.naturalgas.org/naturalgas/extraction_directional.asp

San Fran Recyling Visit
SF recycles 73% - highest percentage municipality in the country

stores with >$3M in revenue can't use plastic bags

3 bin solution, compost, recycle, landfill

non recyclable to landfills: styrofoam rubber dog poop linen, aluminum lined containers, plastic bags (gets caught in machinery), diapers

bioplastics don't break down like other organic material - need a separate process...

people are fiercely resistent to anything that will take away jobs

very apparent inefficiencies
some materials go through the process more than once, because they aren't caught the first pass through

paper and plastic, packaged and then sent to asia

biodegradable diapers... this looks interesting :)
http://www.gdiapers.com/gdiapers101

IDEO
Section 2.1 as intro to IDEO guy, add another paragraph explaining our intent...
Steve to prepare

Brainstorming from last night
discussed what the ideal future would be

some examples, Waste packet switching, Storage of waste, smart waste 

Today's Brainstorming

Kausar
biodegradeable diapers, smart toilet
bioplastic from methane
satellites to monitor mining
waste-water measurements for real-time monitoring

Brad
moving compost truck
rolling tumbler, bring to farm, can hold waste oil from restaurants, 

Bryce
more efficient waster water treatment - capture energy (stirling), capture methane (cover), bacteria for Cu removal....

Andrew/Connor
criticism of ETIR: exact numbers identifying attackable waste streams. idea of making these numbers available. compiling information into collective waste site. making these streams less secretive

Steve
use of tires

Tony
get rich quick, free real estate for solar panels on top of peoples' houses. letting people use a percentage of this energy and then selling the rest back to the grid
Chiara, this works in Italy with gov't aids

Luca
nano for water filtration, photocatalytic when exposed to UV - singapore
spill control nanotech (lotus code) - mimics lotus leaf
nano for CO2 uptake

*Vincent will oversee group of people to assess viability of tech solutions*

How are we going to aggregate & assess the ideas we've generated?

Luca: are we looking for tech that could be converted into a business opportunity or not? We aren't going to get funding if we try to promote an untested technology.

Lauren: we could find at least some small parts that are working and then work from there... there are other sources of funding

Chiara T's ETIR discussion
-define concept of upcycle better and filter the report based on this concept
-too long, summarize in more visual way, gets the message across better
-who? what? when? where? why?
-rough editing in google docs, then eventually move to outside of google docs
-make a choice on streams/critical points based on taking specific numbers into consideration

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpupcycle-Aug5-Team-Meeting
"Connor is moderating

Andrew: Split up into groups and combine ideas of select one to present to the rest of the group

3D Printer Plastic Replacement
talk about what materials and bio-polymers that are already being used and talk about their reuse potential

Waste Gaming - maybe something to integrate in the end?
Waste Portal - cool but big hurdles
challenges is getting people on board
If you can package this into something that Corporate Eco Forum (http://corporateecoforum.com/contact/index.php ) then this is a great oppurtunity. Right now it's just an event, what if they start branding? This is an open forum for CEO's to talk about their waste
Shay Agasi is associate with SU
Do you have to handle the waste?
Potential competitor is exchange base

Modifying Waste Streams
Went to waste management facility found ash that is useful but tainted with copper, idea of biomremediation to reduce coppper in waste stream
Sync Bio - consultant/supplier of microorganisms. synthetic biology to understand processes and custom microbe manufacturing.
creating ecosysosystems rather than selling enzymes for example

what if we started out with a waste exchange portal and then eventually started engineering the organisms to purify?

Phosphorous
Andrew: Algae as it relates to metals
If we can attach ourselves to one propblem (like copper), then there are probably similar situations that would be attracted to us

Bryce: We wouldn't be selling a product but engineerring waste economy solutions

Bryan: Palo Alto, $250,000 a year to dispose of ash as waste from burning waste - what if you sell as fertilizer instead?

Presentation for Tomorrow:
Andrew: Grander Vision then show a first step to get there....
Kausar: we have three group areas, what if the main people in each group work together and work on grand vision and the remaining members work on preparing the individual slides
Tony: divide by time and not slides

Info slides:
Make an emotional conenction with the audience
Drill home the concept that wast doesn't need to go to a landfill
How to impact 1 billion?
Platforms can scale really fast

-----------------

Order of presentations:
Introduction
Bioremediation

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpupcycle-Aug4-Team-Meeting
"What's due Friday

Presentation ~20 min
Plan 1.0 - 5 pages

Outlines
Problem Overview - General
ETIR Discussion - How you focused (1 slide)
Focus Ideas (2-3)
Define problem
What is the solution
How does it impact people
What are you going to do to prove concept by Aug 27th

Idea Convergence
Alison: Textiles
Greensulate - uses agriculture waste (bacteria, bioremediation) to create clothing
\"Second largest\" air pollution generator world-wide
100,000,000 textile workers around the world
Lauren: Replacement of oil products for textiles? Alison: Yes!
Ecocoutoure - growing of leather

Bryce: Bioremediation
microbes can convert waste stream into feedstock - turning a contaminent into something else
treatement of paper industry waste can capture pulp for reuse
this is exciting because we just finished sequencing of many of these microbes....
GeoBacter - UMASS - produces energy while bioremediating
synthetic biology hasn't been used for this yet... exciting possibility!
Lauren: people at NASA are looking into this...
Everson: how are they looking into this?
Lauren: one case, Hangar 1, engineering organisms that breakdown PCBs found in there....
Bryce: this is exciting because the water tour we went on although specific situation, would be great to separate out copper specifically to generate top soil
Andrew: I like this idea, would be a great jump off point for something larger
Kausar/Everson: water group is working on this - discuss together?

Vincent: Waste Trade Platform
Existing Problem:
non-profit orientation, mostly local, the ones that are non-local don't seem to do the job as well as it should be. now there are lots of offline processes.
if you can promote the platform well, there is a big space here
lots of hurdles 
promotes carbon credits
easiest part is the platform, more difficult is getting people to use
Lauren: you have to convince the company to give the information
Tony: there are lots of ways to collect the information
Alison: IWEX (Cape Town, South Africa),http://www.capetown.gov.za/en/iwex/Pages/default.aspx
Kausar: http://wastemarket.net/

Tony: 3D printing for larger-scale items
This will be disruptive for any industry
Reuse of materials 
No packaging or transport
Alison: what's NOT happening with 3d is that you have to have is the best material to use
Lauren: has a thesis on 3D printing from one of my colleagues, also this is a great idea because you don't have to have the designer in the room

Tony: Waste-based games

Matt: recyle
http://www.affresol.com/index.asp

Everson: Phosphorous remediation or conversion

Zain: talked to MR, gets together the top head people 
talked with Waste Management Inc - $10B waste stream, $8B value!!!!! this could be a great start for Waste Portal.

TerraCycle - collect waste and turn it into products http://www.terracycle.net/

Kausar: devil's advocate, what if they say no and run with our ideas?

One that's easiest to implement
One that's the wildest
One that has the biggest impact

voting for ideas:
IT:
Portal - 13
Waste Stream Exchange - 13
Gaming Platform - ...

Materials:
Smart Bio-Materials, plastics textiles - 9
Bio textiles - 9
3D Printing Large Scale - 6

Remediation:
Phosphorous Extraction - 11
Waste Stream Bio Remediation - 6

Others:
Recycling Tires - 3
Auto Dissassembly - 1-2
Rating System - 2
Dissassembly Construction - 0

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpupcycle-Jul14-Team-Meeting
"Alison please paste your notes here so far so we can help:

Meeting July 14th. 

Matt is moderating
Discussion on the current Upcycle pyramid. 

Steve: The current model makes sense, looking at model as it should be. 
zain: Conceptual framework, make sense to split into teams. 
who came up with the pyramid. 
Brian: One of the speakers at grand challenges. Tom ???? was the originators of the bottle with the pyramid flipped upside down. 
Make an argument to why its most/least desirable, why its the size it is? 
Alison: why is it a pyramid. 
Connor: 

Matt: Nobody really understand why this is developed and how it was developed. Don't know if its the best way to divid it. Maybe we can come up into groups 

Brad: Ultimately, going to go back to the problem space. Lets just do it the way we have it. 

Chiara: What tony says makes sense that we could see these types of things through different kinds of filters. What can we use from these things? For example recycle, problem of plastic or glass - no incentive of using it. If we decided a way to make clothes with plastic or glass. 

Brad: Can we combine? 

Andrew: We had a discussion on why we care about this at the first place. We are driven by a purpose. What is the reason we are interested in why we are interested in waste. Maybe we are not be inficent about it, need better understanding of why there is a problem and what are the specific problems. 

Matt: Suggest we ask why it is a problem

Kausar: It makes sense to me to have these pyramids, we should look at the numbers in percentages of these groups now (reduce, recycle, dipose, etc) and the percentages of what we want those numbers to be

Bryan: Highlight so we don't loose what andrew said before is important. Question of why or what is important? When/Where is waste important? It may not be mass and material, so it may not material. 

Where is waste a problem?
What kind of waste is a problem?
Methods of fixing waste problems? (this is seen in the pyramid)

Identify what waste you are trying to do something about instead of lumping it all together.

STEVE: Did we decide to focus on industrial waste, that seems to be what the most of the waste seems to be.

Brad: I don't think there was a specific decision. 

Andrew: We didn't discuss what to focus on, but 70% more industrial waste. 100% production in consumer waste would be negligable in the total industrial wastes. 

Bryan: Where is the problem. If its most industrial and not causing a problem. 

Steve: How much access do we have? Knock on DuPont's door

Connor: Yes, you can? Talked about a company that got fish from farmers, the waste from fish were turned into Omega3 pills and the company bought that idea and making more money on pills than on Fish. 

Matt: Do we want to split this up globally or by sectors? 

Brad: Not enough people?
Andrew: Tackling problems in the order they are listed, doesn't seem to make sense to go to next level. Is there something that is even more important than where we are running out of resources 
2 problems: 
1 using up things and throwing up value stuff we are running out. Example resource A is in Dump and we need it. 
- or- 2 Affluent A that hurts us and takes up space, we should reduce effluent A that is coming out. 

We don't have a clear idea of what problems presently exist really are. 

Tony: Are you saying that we are understanding pyramid structure based on material? 

Andrew: Who knows, house hold industrial waste vs. industrial waste. No clear problem at the moment. 

STEVE: Toxic 100 website. (http://www.peri.umass.edu/toxic100) 

Tony: What you are saying that we are just accepting the waste, your saying the resource is the problem. 

Andrew: Don't understand why waste a problem? 

Chiara: You can read everything in two ways: optimize resources and the other is reduce toxic or negative ways. 

Andrew: We had dicussion of how we can deal with this economically or politically, we discussed mainly economically and looking to have a potential to have a businesss instead of a lobby group. Only two ways to make money, selling people things or taking away things people don't want. Want to understand what the opportunities are. 

Where people are not optimizing what are value? or Help them with their toxic problem? 

Alison: I think these are all things we should be talking about and that's awesome, I don't think we are all in agreement we want a business. I do like the way you said we can give them something you want or take away what they don't want? Is there anything else?

Brad: Contradiction? You don't want business but you want to look at other ways we can monetize?

Alison: I want to look at way to understand the process.

STEVE: Secrete is seeing the value in what they see. Finding the value in something people don't see value. 
Connor: comes to marketing, viagra, was a failure at heart disease medicine and marketing got a hold of the side affects list and make it into Viagra. Its all about perspective. 

Chiara: I think what Alison is saying is looking at the process ultimately you come back to what Andrew said either add good or take bad

Alison: Or both

Bryan: Mercury is both good and bad. example mercury in the system. 

Andrew: Is there something else that can be valuable from an output form the team or an alternative for things that we can begin with. Is there anything people would like to focus on

STEVE: put together a framework on the intrensic value in waste. Nebulous term \"value\" and don't always know what that is. 

Andrew: Please elaborate

STEVE: lots of waste streams that exists, good for world to have a summary of all the different waste streams. 

Chiara: Its basically what STEVE is saying, turning the bad into the good like with plastic.

Connor: Affluence from manufacturing, someone mentioned yesterday the EPA has a large listing to know what companies are getting rid of each year. 

Brad: looked at it and got no results, 

Ola: Brad sent it.

Brad: put in links and always returned zero, has anyone used the tool successfully

OLA: Get NAICS and get the number and put it in the box and brings a tons of companies. Once you get in there, it has classifications of 

Connor: Don't care about companies, but the byproduct that is useful for me. 

Matt: What do you suggest we use from this site? Get the maxium amount of material

Ola: You get type of company and the type of waste. Example: mining industry. Look little deeper you can start to compare companies. But it significant to dig a little bit. 

Alison: Suggests that Kauser and Zain look into the the 

MATT: found a site where India has it broken down into streams. 

Chiara: Maybe so good since they are back from Energy meeting we can do a brief summer of what we have done. 

Andrew: Taking a look at the affluence of what is being pumped out. If we are starting to look at these things as resources and recovering or reducing these things ... the more of something bad is putting out there then the more value. Example: Mercury where comes from... all mercury comes from thermometer companies/products. What is being dumped helps us identify opportunities. 

MATT: More waste does not acutally make it bad. Do they have CAS numbers so we can cross reference, this is used to know if something is hazardous. 

Andrew: Reducing things are hazardaous, and also recovering things that are valueable. Throwing out something benign, it would be great to take that out use it for something of purpose. 

MATT: Did a brief summary of what we said. Decided why these are unimportant and considering quantifying each one of these levels. Trying to optimizing between taking away and giving and discussing the databases online and the waste is available through the industries.

Luca: I don't understand the percentage on the pyramid... the percentage numbers up there were added as an example. 

Andrew: fictious numbers and w/out units. What the current pyramid looks like and potentially looking at the idealized version and what would be a better organization. 

Everson: I am working to create a visual about the waste problem and the idea is to see how basically that we waste as a bad thing and not too bad, like incineration. Generate energy, but material is useful so it has economic vaule. ___ need more information. 

Tony: Need to add toxicity and medical effects and time. In the end would should have knowledge of each material or process we should be able to draw a pyramid in our head of the best process. Have a pyramid for every material and every parameters. 

Brad: Kind of plays nicely with my suggestion. We have those groups already to split everyones workload in the groups and have one person be on energy, economics, healt effects, 

Kauser: thinking about numbers and how to get them. We need numbers. People need to get the numbers in the subgroups instead of Zain and I getting it all. Get the numbers as your researching your specific areas. 

Andrew: Now that we are getting a better idea of framework, seems like what we are saying an availbility of a certain element and here is the amount, here is where it is coming from, and a vertical. Maybe in groups it would be easier for consantrating on specfic areas by industry, matierals, understand what is available. 

Matt: I think that's a good idea when you do research, like paper recycled was 

Luca: is it common sense to assume consumption of energy is the consumption of waste? 

Andrew: that is a potential sources, none of them come from energy production. Waste isn't amporphic it is going to be specific item, like coal mining... 

Luca: We are coming from talk with bob and introducing the concept of selling megawatts to reduce consumption of energy and they are paid for that. 

Vincent: can you switch off air conditioning and then getting paid for that

Bryan: Reduce is is at the top is energy, the presumption that these are tied together. You need to keep the connection and separation in mind. Energy is important and global warming is important and they say if we reduce waste then we MIGHT BE reduce the amount of energy we use. 

Coal mining is one of the biggest producers of harmful waste and it's in the air and its creating huge amounts of coal ash. 
Maybe there is a different solution to that and we could solve other waste problems with that energy. 

STEVE: coal isn't just 

Andrew: discussion really confirms that some of the things we are using. Economics, health, and we are on the right path, the frame work we are coming up with. 

MATT: What else do we need to be considering with this whole breakdown? We have the whole pyramid, pyramid by section, breakdown from industry and material? 

Chiara: 

STEVE: its the consumer impact, what do they have to change in order for these opportuines have to change? 

Luca: We need to go global with our work? 

MATT: That is up for discussion, the are a couple of large countries we want to work with. Do we want to work with

Luca: US and Europe

Kouser: 1Billion impact is over 10 years, each start on, should start on specific markets that highest return in time and resources is the potential to succeed in a start up nation? Is USA? After it should be scaled. 

Andrew: Like what you are saying, if we idenify all the wastes then it would clearly impact 1 Billion people. Probably be one affluent we realize we can make a big impact on or impact a lot of people or allow us to take down. That does give us the ability to scale out and provide solutions that will affect billions of people

Chiara: Tried to divid according to materials, plastic and exct... and do the metrics. It will be easy to see our matrix and make it real. 

Zain: 76.6% of the waste. Less ignore US and Europe, but they consume the most and poorest are consuming less. 

Lauren: Zain makes a good point, developing countries are the producers of a lot of the things that the developed countries make even if they are not the consumers

Ask Luca a question, what constitutes impacting 1Billion people you said US and Europe. How is the group going to affect secondary and tirtiary affects when doing our metrics. 
For instance maybe you come up with a really cool tech that allows you to take advantage of policies in developed countries that you can't roll out in undeveloped and vice versa, think of secondary and tertiary outcomes and effects.

Andrew: Assume what I am saying is right. False dichotomy to say this country or that country, because pollutants don't know borders. 
If you look at the really big problems, I've heard that aspertame is really hard for your body to break down, it's in diet coke, probably not much in undeveloped countries as in developed.

Reducing this in the USA or a small populations and the impact could eventually affect a billion people down the line. Doing something in a small region could impact everyone on the planet. 

Tony: Libby Carter and lets start to talk next steps. 

Matt: What we want to ask LIbby or next steps. 

Andrew: Lets schedule a time. 

Matt: Lets go through how to break this up. 

Chiara: Lets close this discussion for the moment. 

Brad: Lets set up some time to prepare for the next meeting. 

Brad: Lets make a time, this was kind of organic. 

Chiara: This was really useful, wish we would have done this this first meeting. 

............................................................
Liddy Carter QUESTIONS:
Bio: (http://www.kartercapital.com/who.html)

Chiara: Give an answer to what we are doing? 
Vincent: Where is the biggest opportunity?
Chiara: Pointed out the parameters for the metrics and we need to find examples? Looking at these lense?
Andrew: Don't affective use of her time? Drilling her for research material? 
Chiara: Economically speaking what is the biggest impact. 
Andrew: While focusing on dollars what material or area has the greatest material. 
Francesco: If we ask her to prepare rankings on dollars and on water, we are asking her to do rankings. Not a useful way to use her time. 
Luca: Rather ask her if this is a good approach? A good metrics?
What kind of documents and materials we can have from her? What are online databases to reference?
Andrew: Is there any particular areas or opportunties for us to focus? Low hanging fruit? Less crowded spaces? What are our biggest opportunties?
Vincent: Add on to metrics? This is good and if there is a better one? Does she have a better idea to appraoch the problem? 
Andrew: Who is going to present this to her? How are we going to slice the problem? 
Zain: Give her framework and give her feedback? 
Lauren: - Marian Chertow ahs a PHD group at YALE working on the same thing
Matt: We need to 
Vincent: Is it industrial, personal, 
Bryan: Different answers from her if you ask her right now vs. 5 years from now
Andrew: Biggest problems that are not on people's radar right now 
Vincent: Not only opportunites but challenges?
Andrew: put this on hold, once this is done we have a presentation and scheduled up through dinner to presentaton. If we want to do anything after this? or just come back here and keep discussing. Come back here with food. The final presentation is here... come back here and meet up again. 
Tony: 5 minute break before meeting here? 
Alison: How do you define opportunity? 

======================================
Liddy Carter
======================================
Andrew: Happy to have you here
LIddy: Happy there are some many people here
Andrew: How can we impact 1B peoples lives on 10 years, and we all agree that we have a way to affect everyone on the planet
When first came in here we were given this diagram (points to diagram) and that has been our jumping off point. We want to take advantage of your expertise and give us a start and let us get some ideas form you. 

Liddy: 
OK. 
A: Let you know that waste and recycling is a real problem space and how we can slice this down into manageable ways to research. Is there some area or some way at looking at the problem or a frame work for looking at this? 

L: Yes, paradigm is different sectors of waste: solid waste, food waste, wasted heat, stuff in air. Gaseous waste? Have we narrowed it down?
A: Currently narrowing down to different influence, we are looking at things a bit more granular. 
L: Have you thought about it as it regards industrial vs. consumer wasted
A: This is 70:1 in absolute volume, great things have been done. Opportunity is in the industrial sector.
L: We will agree there and not deal with post consumer. 
L: Now that we know we are industrial, are we thinking along organic or inorganic waste? 
Vincent: We were asked to look at complete problem space. No decision as it stands now. 
L: So I'll tell you how I think about that, I look into the
L: Regulatory framework, what is government going to do to screw up all these streams, and incentives,... risks are very real, in certain areas in inorganic space, will be regulating that in different way,and in organic space also, will be regulated... much less harmful way. Our focus is on organic waste recycling. chances are that those waste streams will be handled more consistently over the next 10 years
Steve Cronin: what are examples of the regulations?
L: Being discussed are taxation and greenhouse gas markets being implemented more aggressively. So we green house gas and carbon markets have been really wacky with low values, so the expected benefits for carbon based materials in Europe have not been realized. Anytime when you have to rely on those markets its really tricky What they have done is excluded 

T: Policy: We thought that we don't need to think about it, if we have an eocnomic solution,then it will bypass policy. You depict that regulation has the biggest role. Without regulation, can we tackle waste? Is this your view?
L: Our fund,only invest in 50% improvement over current meothd of handling whatever wast stream it is. 50% is enough to drive ity down. Agree you should go that kind of thing
A: Clarify please
L: Ecoomic solution, you have to start there. But if you do, and then regualtionis on the horizon somewhere, then sveryone will delay implementing those proejcts in otrder to jump onto bandwaggon of regulation (2-4 yrs). E>G. in 4 years I'll have this benefit. 4$ for natural methane etc... lots of people have delayed as they don't want it for incremental projects. Don't let regulation drive your decision but let yourselves go for the economics for the . Opportunity to pick your field, go where there isn't any regulation. Easier to get things implemented. you might have seen inmy slide. In terms of energy potential, the food stream has a lot of benefits, nothing in food stream that is hazardous - and these can be particularly challenging, And mor energy in our food stream than anywhere else and it is dispersed eveywhere. Consistency processed everywhere. : Huge opportunities for improving proiduction capacities and values
Steve C.: What is the biggest vlaue and opportunity? Food and waste?
I like those terms ... economic opportunities, new tech is rapidly developed and is mostly biological processes that are being developed and there is a huge amount of biochemisty that is going into the process.?
A: Anaerobic digestors and fuels from organic waste?
Example: 
L: With people being abe to engineer the microbes, efficiencies are increasing in multiples, resulting amount of sludge going down to a fraction of what there was before. These kind of opportunities will change the eocnomics of framing. Suddenly waste stream is as valuabe (or more) than the product. IN rice, waste stream is twice as valuable as the rice
Lauren Fletcher: example is the 
Salmon industry, vitamin B3 - $1,000/kg. Organic farming... petrochemical subs that are extremely valuable, not chemical based so we like them they are valuable?
Renewable, biodegradable, and breakable and be able to be broken down and put into an plastic. 
Vincent: I would like to ask, is waste an opportunity? From the big picture, where is the biggest problem if there is one with waste? Or is just opportunity driven?
Liddy: I don't think that there is a problem. I am an optimist and have trouble seeing problems, but 
Global warming is a problem, capitalism is a problem and getting it deployed is also a problem. Having a group lke this is, with lots of ofllowing that capital will follow you guys... all these things will require capital implementation. All technology can be filled but money is essential. If we don't deal with our waste streams from agriculture, then methane produced will be a huge contributor to global warming - this is a real problem. A real driver for addressing the problem... not just methane but also run off into the water for all kinds of farming
A: Reduction for reductions sake isn't the area we should look at? 
L: Yes, not a problem but a huge opportunity. If you want to affect a lof people then go for something that is really consistent. Go for a process that is simple enough that it can be implemented ... 3 hours spent working on a project that is going to be implemented on a small scale in tanzania ... lots of issues there, such as infrastrucutre, this project will create electricity, but get the project here on dirt roads, and other such issues... something that scales well is very relevant.

A: That is specific to organic recovery that we are lookign at. Great to know. 
Lauren: one thing that strikcs me in this, when we think of Upcycle, we are thinking about transforming a discarded byproduct by some process. Is the word \"transform\" should be on that chart? 

Andrew: Looks like recycling process in some areas isn't quiet as affective for the amount of inputs are working out well. However, in recover, transforming inorganic waste is very valuable. 

Lauren: Recovery on the pyramid means recovering energy, but now we are saying energy is valuable, but other useful products you could use methane for may be more interested. 

L: I appreciate that, but whoever talked about methane, the value is 3:1 by turning it into a liquid fuel. This is also true for liquid plastics. We don't have a lot of plastic factories because they don't have the fossil fues to do that. ????

L: another area that needs sme research is on the opppsite side of the spectrum ... recovering something that is very rare, transforming something that is common and less common but this is sitll a commodity ... think about the mining processe that we go through ... such as oil and coal (mostly)... ripping out of earth, has lots of things inside it such as valuable trace minerals, rare earths are getting very hard to find ... only exist in a few places like china and afghanistan ... we have those in a few places, coal ash, military waste streams, landfills, studies have been done that show the value of those waste streams is highly lucrative ... (and becoming more so). How to get at that I don't know, but the opportunity to affect 1b is a bit tangential, not like gona be transorming lives lik epeople seeing but giving them other opportunities like letting them have infrastructure and computers.
SC: What is the best process for getting those materials? They are rare earth elementes (REE), seperating them is a problem
L: Out of fly ash for instance, there is a gorup in spain that is pulling out La, Ce, Nd rare earth elements (REE) ... long names! ... interesting as it sits in huge piles, we don't even use it concrete but we use it elsewhere as it makes good concrete. 
A: One approach is to view things in terms of reducing, harvesting, mining things in abundance in waste streams, or take a look at things we're running out of ... focusing on where are things that we are running out of which are ot being optimised. You mentioned some rare materials, we spoke about phospoerous ... 
L: Phospoerous is a really good one. That's sewage treatment plans, the technology there is very well establish, it's not like we don't know how to get Phosporus back out, nobody is paying for that but they will in the future. if they don't, we can't farm in the future so someone needs to.
Scott: Is someone like ??? doing anything or any initives, 
L: There is a lot of discussion, I don't really know on that needing to be handled differently.
Scott: You'd think they would be thinking long term
L: But maybe not, oh there will be more, but maybe not
A: An other thing, in addition to things like that ... are there any resources, documents etc, that we need to take a look at that you sually do ... in order to understand the problem space

L: Well there is so many. Biocycle, Best thing is to send you a list and get you access to some of it, some of it is private. 

*** Libby's EMAIL: ikarter@kartercapital.com ***

L: I think that we really have not gone anywhere in terms of dealing with our organic food based waste streams, and that alone when handled properly will completely change the energy balance around the world but we are no where on it at the moment - this is on the horizon however, someone I work with is really involved in water waste ... and the problems there. I heard that yesterday London has crossed threshold that they are desalinating more water than they are losing in their pipes. London is needeing to get water out of ocean... whole new kind fo waste stream, wate ris being wasted unncesseraily, waste water treatments plants in the waste 85% are at or above capacity... what are we doing with that? we're being incredivbly stupid, cleaning a bit then dumping into rivers ... wasting all this fresh water is being wasted, can be turne dinto a fuel source and clean drinking water (no reason we can't do this)

Liddy: Cycle it back through a microbial process, with reverse osmosis or forward osmosis. There are very few places in the US that are doing this, but they don't think about it because water is so abundant. 
A: Another question we have for you. When people bring and present to you, there are a number of ways to look at problems ... energy required to create water, or volume , or weight or other such measurements ... do you want ti broken down into dollars..
L: I don't wanna anything but dollars. It's the only universal measure. DOLLARS DOLLARS DOLLARS. And I am biased. 

A: Our method is to take a look at this different affluent methods/opportunites and reform the pyramids based on the materials. Do you think looking at these specific affluent streams is a helpful for us to research. 

Liddy: In my sense, I'm one to cut to the chase ... look at big affluent streams, look at one you can get at, systemic across the world - not many... that should be a criteria ... how many are there? I would start there. How are you goin to get access ... so complciated. Supply chains are really tortured. Go somewhere where the resources are consolidated and easy to get rid of. Not gonna drive this process solely on the ecomomics of the value of the material.
Someone has to have the material they need to get rid of. Eeven though fisheads are very valuable, but not economical to grow fish for this ... you have to identify a big consistent waste stream first. 
Bryan: Doesn't this create big roblem, all the energy extracted - nothing to put back. Grow fish jsut to make VB3. 
L: Think about what happens when you waste frood in to anorobic digestion, you are putting some in carbon and methane, but the solids actually get longer and when you get them back into the soil it makes them very stable. 
Bryan: 
L: If you need is a oil admendment, 
Bryan: If its all about dollars - then the incentives can go the wrong way (e.g growing fish for fish heads, or corn for whatever) - you raise the price of food by doing this which is bad. 
Lauren: Yes, and offer additional suggestions/recomendations, we can think about a longer term problem and really scale up at the 10 year mark. We can consider problems that others don't want to deal with. Even its specifically an energy issue we can ___ I think focusing too quickly down into problems is not the quit the right way to go. At least define it in vertical spaces to convience yourself that a vertical but it looks like is there is an opportunity to make that vertical stream valuable, then that is what you should be going after. 

Andrew: Project finishes at September. People are interested to continue and this room and table will go away and we need to look at potential 
Ignoring small opportunities that bootstrap us up. Do we want to follow that model? 

LAuren: We have opportunity to think about how something might be really economicaly feasable in the 5-10 range. 

L: I was with someone early this morning, who worked for 8 years before their tehcnology matured sufficiently before it became economically viable Many of these technologies won't be done overnight, but problem discovery will work.

Andrew: We will see acellerating technologies and preparing for things that might be coming out further might position us well, so that the 
Iknow the common knoweldge that 

L: No. I object to that, because there are so many things that need to be done today, why go to the future? Most of the things you will be thinking about, or at least think you will be a problem 10 years from now. But if you can improve today what we are doing and build the infrastructure for additional solutions. Example: Anarobic digestors you still have to contain the material even if you come up with a genetically engineered microbe. Pitch what you are doing today. 

Lauren: I object to that. I would say investment banker will object it straight outof hand . there are additonal money streams to convience ecnomic supporters to invest. There is no justification that we can scale it into commercial product and yet, people 

L: Totally agree, but you asked me what I'd say if you came to me. SBIR/STTR grants available through NIH/DARPA/DOE/NSF and others are really viable. 

Andrew: We'll send off to talk to different funding types. 

Liddy: We look as SBIRs (small business innovation research) and STTR (small business technology transfer).

Andrew: Maybe what we can do is have casual conversation as we sit here and andrew sits. :)

Tony: you say there is so much opportunity in waste. Why aren't people taking advantage of that? Is it a yuck factor or environmental parameters have changed. What are the main reasons

Liddy: It must be taken down into waste streams. Italians always deal with waste streams. Lets think about haz. waste is completly stiffiled because they keep chaning the rules and regulations. We are pouring it into landfills when there is so much valuable materials are in it. Then you've got agricultural issues where there is less regulartion and volitility in regulations. This is much more productive. Why does the US not handle it not productively, and our agricultural system is productive and they have not regulated what is going into our water streams. 

fran: When you have to asses the regulatory area, do you have lobby firms or people who mind these regulatory framework. 

Liddy: Mary is advisor to DOE and AGRICULTURE and use people at Yale w/in VC industry, they use a subgroup for clean teach and look at reg. that are coming. 
Fran: In Italy, if bill is going through it might be too late or vary late and you have no chance to affect it. So better to get it in the cradle. 
LIddy: Spend time in legislation in early plans. You are so right, get there early and people have to know you and the person that people have to go too. There is no easy way to do it, time consuming and expensive. 
Fran: Do you invest in EU?
Liddy: No, have small child and don't want to travel that much. Here cause her kid is at camp. 
Andrew: Involved in carbon credit generation company. Use anorobic digestion and sell off the power. My experience with that so far has not been that things have not been successful. 

A: When you speak about value the rights project... where you talking about that includin carbon monetization or power generation? 

Liddy: Neither, there is a lot of chemistry and if you can find a right way to break down the fiberous materials you can make interesting products. Energy that is a benefit of the process of the product, its different than combustion. We as a industry, the first thought is combustion, that is why when we think of plastics we see that we can 

The fact we are gasifying that and choice to make fuels out of that. Biochemistry is where there is a huge undeveloped source of potential new materials. 

A: That's great. Yah. Eheheh....
L ... Any other questions?

Everson: What kind of buyers do you find on the exit?
L: Who do we sell these companies too? I hope,or I just hope I did sell ... we have a deal cooking for ac ompany that eliminates waste, on the reduce size ... they took regularly lubricating oil and in every truck car, any internal combustion engine ... uses this kind of oik. If you keep fluids out of it water, will keep oil from getting acidic and therefore won't break down ... can use semicron filter ... can have a clean engine running all the time. . Oil Purification Systems (http://www.ops-1.com/), Waterberry, CT. Purchased by customer, logical exit is a customer ... because large companies ... level of innovation is very low and so they need people who are willing to take risks with innovative ideas and prove a market and then the big company is good for distrubtion, they are good marketing and sales machines ... always looking for a new product, happened in thsi case. another example, a company built out a lot of power generation from a series of anarobic disgestors from a food waste process... they are getting bought by utilities ... they see this as their new power generating opportunities, they don't see many such opportunities, even with power gas being cheap etc ... this is a great opportunity for them to think about distributing power generation. they were once a customer who was buying this product. Very few of the things I invest in, by design, makes me different from others in my field. I tend to invest in companies that will be sold in 3-5 years, that sell single or a few products that can fit well into strategic acquisitions

Luca: OPS will detroy the oil fluids market

Lauren: resistance from catiplillar? 
Liddy: Catipillar loves this. The warranty has nothing to do with how often you replace the oil, but on testing the oil. Catapiller loves this because their business in old machines. Getting back engines that are in better shape and getting a more valuable machine. 

Andrew: Strategy? Early exits? Does that fall in line with other Angel Investors?
Liddy: He has more money and is more patient, and I don't know. He is looking for the same thing I am. They are really looking to build companies. I am looking for technologies that will change companies.

Andrew: is that common and there is shift towards this. 

Liddy: Yes, we drive it in that direction, not because we don't love the entrap. its about how you are going to make change, you do it by working with a large company to get it into the broad market fast. That is exciting. 

Brad: loved your talk in grand challenges. If you had 20 people (referring to our team) what would she do with us? 

Liddy: It strikes me that optimal size of groups is to work with 5-8 people. 

Lauren: Can't have multiple projects from this group. 

Liddy: I felt like I am not supposed to tell you what to do. I am constrained because I need to make a return and I have a lot of people that care about that and not me. My thinking is so narrowed, such a position is so narrowed and I am reluctant to say to you... think about manour. 

Lauren: Valuable question, but the time to ask is when you have a more defined problems and we have 20-25 ideas. Which ones are 

Brad: I don't want to waste time, what not to go into and what not to go into? 

Liddy: Regulatory things should be kept in mind. Stay on in the industrial space, also think you want to stick with one broad category is the organic catagory/food. 

STEVE: corporate politics, corporations don't want to be open about what they are creating as far as waste and toxins. General question would be, how do you determine which corporations or entities are the ones to interact with.

Liddy: Here is an idea, go to those companies that are makign the most money. Actually, they care a lot about the brand and have ability to deploy capital and people to deploy. Novo Nordisk (http://www.biotech-monitor.nl/3308.htm), makes insulin from white flour. What do you do with sticky flour, they are a big company and most pharm. are coming from food and makign lots of waste. Live near lots of pharm. plants. Waste streams are a big problme and want to talk to them. This goes back to the journal question, these are not secretes. Interesting potential to help a lot of people. Imagine if Insuline prices could fall by 3/4 ? Room for technological benefit because of the waste streams. You make antibiotics, but there is a lot that actually isn't used. Its building in sewage treatment plants, the pharm companies are having this problems as well and how to think about those problems and that is powerful stuff. Its regulated, but not like haz waste because most is food products. 

STEVE: in his company, its a conservative converstaion and the conv. doesn't get very far and its difficult to have with people. how do you start this conversation. 

Liddy: We have marians papers and they are posted on our site and they are helpful in understanding the waste streams. Once that junction gets made once its easy replicate these junctions in waste streams? Who has these problems and who has solutions for them and how often can this be replicated around the world? Its possible.

Zain: If a project can't be financed it won't be able to reach a billion people. What lens should I look through. 

L: Its rare to find a company that can grow well without company. However, in waste space when your dealing with capital equipment you are going to have to finance that somehow. Its different in high tech. There is a lot of money out there, although many people are using social networks to deal with waste. 

Andrew: We are ready to wrap up. We will send you an email. Is there anything we can do to keep you abraest of what is happening here. Can we keep this ongoing w/out hindering your time. 

Never thought I'd see a room full of people doing this. So happy to respond to the questions you have. 

THANK YOU (clapping) 

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpupcycle-Jul9-Team-Meeting
"UPCYCLE MEETING NOTES
Friday July 9, 2010
Action Items for Next Meeting

Let's discuss Shareholding after Salim's discussion this afternoon.

Tony: Start off with pyramid...

Bryce: I propose that we do innovation excersizes and personal anxieties first....

Tony: Alison, what should we do, team building, anxieties?

Brad: Managaement seems like the logical first....

Management Structure Discussion

Tony's Proposed Structure (7/8)
Upcycle Team Management Structure
Management Structure - Focal Points
1. Coordinator
a. IT/Info Management
b. Social/Logistics/Events
2. Financial/Treasurer
3. Legal/Policy
4. Ambassador/External Relations

Chiarra G: Ambassador goes to other meetings?

Tony: Yes, and also goes to outsiders and talk with them...

Chiarra G: Maybe we have two people?

Bryce: One can be team ambassador, one can be external...

Andrew: I like this plan....

Alison: Bryce you were talking about a voting mechanism...

Bryce: I like voting mechanism, a person can say \"move to vote\" if the discussion has progressed enough. Can also help when there's an awkward pause and people feel pressured to continue talking about the topic.

Andrew: What happens if people want to continue talking?

Bryce: Robert's Rules... See how many people still want to talk... if there are enough people that want to continue talking, the person who called the move to vote can withdraw, if they don't withdraw the team votes. 

Tony: Don't confuse business and parlimentary processes...

Bryce: I move to vote on using this system (Alison: temporarily)

:::::: Majority of group agrees to use Robert's Rules Temporarily ::::::

Tony: Let's use this for two weeks or so until the team becomes better evolved....

Andrew: It would also be great to have a secretary or someone lead discussion...

Bryce: This wouldn't be a power position, just to lead the discussion. The chair has no power but just moderator roles.

Tony: I'm getting that this would be someone who makes sure that the meeting goes well.... I think there should also be some CEO or person in charge...

Alison: I'm not comfortable talking about this yet...

Andrew: Let's have a consiglierri!

Chiarra's Option: the person who's moderating the meeting is also in charge
Andrew's Option: there is a separate moderator and CEO, checks and balances
Third Option: have a moderator and no CEO....

Kidist: what would the CEO actually do?

Tony: Like an info manager...

Bryce: I say that one person each week just go through all the items each week... each item on the agenda will be run by the person who proposed the item on the list....

Andrew: I would like to have a dedicated moderator who knows how to move things along....

Lauren: I agree with you Andrew, but also people who haven't really had the oppurtunity to moderate should have the oppurtunity...

:::::VOTE:::::
Majority says no CEO yet, only moderator.

Tony: Person leading the discussion isn't the person responsible for the agenda. Should we have a rotating moderator or the same moderator?

Luca: Tony do you want to do this the whole time?

Tony: I can do it but if someone wants to step up.

Andrew: I propose that we rotate until there is a problem

::::::VOTE:::::
Majority says to rotate moderator

Tony: Do we need an IT moderator......

Tony: Social/Logistics/Events moderator?

Andrew: let's vote on whether we need one...

Everson: I think we are discussing points that we don't know if we are going to use yet

Tony: Skip them for now...

Vince: I think we can skip them all for now...

Chiarra: I think IT guy and external guy should be chosen at thebeginning...

Alison: I think we need external relations and IT guy right now...

How are groups communicating?

Lauren: I think once you get involved in projects, the communication will break down. Talk to them over beer at night...

:::::VOTE::::
majority to separate Ambassador and external relation

:::::VOTE::::
majority agree that we need social/logistics/events

:::::VOTE::::
majority agrees not to have financial/tresurer until a later time

Alison: I thought one of the purposes of coming to this program was to get involved with something that you haven't normally done.

Chiarra: When we are in our group this may be ok but when we need someone who has more background, it's better to have an expert.

Andrew: I like to have orthogonal thinking but it's not probably the best to have the best guitarist play the drums.

:::::VOTE::::
Majority votes that we need a legal person

Lauren: I feel that there should be a person who's an expert in the field but that there should also be a couple people to follow and learn from them.

Alison: I'm thinking of another position, someone who does little things like t-shirts, like a creative director etc...

Lauren: After August 6th, the structure may need to change depending on what the topic is...

::::VOTE::::: 1 week trial period.... see how things are going
IT/Info Director:
BRAD

Social/Logistics/Events/Creative Director
KIDIST

Ambassador to Other Team Projects
ALISON

External Relations - this person will just collaborate all the external discussions and not necessarily be talking to everyone. Lauren suggests that we filter all of our outside contacts through the SU staff. This person would be responsible for clearing.
Nominate: Connor, Chiarra Turelli (Alison, thoughtful and rational before making decision), Francesco
Majority: FRANCESCO

NEXT TOPIC: PERSONAL ANXIETIES: Alison (from https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/Doc?docid=0Ad6mMT3KY0RIZGRwOTYzMzNfMmNrZ3E5OHhx&hl=en)
+ main concern involves picking the best idea, we are all smart and have relatively good abilities to convey our ideas. I would hate if the best idea gets smothered by those who dominate the group.
+ My concern is that the focus is so much on business that ideas will get crushed at the beginning of the process and not be allowed to grow and expand before researching. 
+ all of the voices in the group will not get heard
+ I worry about building trust between the group

Andrew: When we have discussions that are blind and we have a moderator, can we reorganize the group so that it may not be as intimidating? Make a better model....

Chiarra: I think you (Alison) should be the \"social moderator\" to directly say, hey you what do you think? 

Lauren: If you feel uncomfortable talking to peers, go to Lauren. If you feel uncomfortable talking to Lauren, go to Emeline or Salim.

Vince: If they don't feel comfortable with the decisions being made, we aren't going to have time to ask 15 people every time....

Bryce: I agree, that's why we have a vote. Everyone has the oppurtunity to vote. It's undemocratic to call on people what they think right before a vote is made. The vote is what makes your voice heard. 

Alison: we should have an opening up excersize each meeting???

Vince: maybe an option, is to either add it to the concerns sheet, etherpad, higher ups.... start local... don't elevate unless you have to...

Andrew: As for the type of concerns raised so far, are they the type that can be addressed?

Alison: Depending on the problem, I think that there are ways to deal with them. Group activities diminishes a lot of worries and stresses. Depending on depth of concern, case-by-case basis.

Bryce: My greatest fear is that we are going to be totally distracted by laptops because only half of the people are paying attention. Out of respect for everyone, try to only use laptops for taking notes and not searching on the internet. You may not have sense of how well the meeting is going. 

Luca: I agree with Bryce, we are not that effective. We need to be faster....

Everson: We are loosing time inside the meeting....

Andrew: there are two problems, inefficient meetings, not open to brainstorming ideas...

Kidist: have some fun activities

------------BREAK-----------------

PYRAMID TOPICS

REDUCE 
Brad: 
consumer, societal, 
Industrial source reduction: reducing materials like making McDonald's straws 2cm shorter

Vince:
you can catergorize the types of waste
resource optimization: make better use of source material
reuse of scrap material: loop intermediate materials (paper mill reintroduces paper roll)
Improve process control: if you have 1% wrong, bring to 0%
Waste: it may be useful for somebody else for something else
Ship to point of use: get materials directly rather than 5 intermidiaries
When you reduce, negative externatilies: reuse of glass milk bottles, need to make thicker, more material, more transportation costs, sounds good at beginning but all calculations may be more expensive
Manufacturing for longer lifetime: less beneficial because you omit people from buying something that is more efficient

Luca:
US, Russia, Brazil, China have most collected waste
Mexico, Europe, Turkey, second
Canada, Eastern Europe, Australia, third
Huge reservoir remaining
South Korea first in recycling, has 50% recycling rate
China and Singapore second

Brad:
USA sourced to the point in 2006 that waste is leveling off - see Brad's email...
There's also cool grants we can apply for http://www.grants.gov/search/search.do?mode=VIEW&oppId=50765

REUSE
Alison:
Funny pic of guy riding toilet - this is indicative of what's happening out there.
Brad: does it run on human waste? That would be awesome....
Reuse means using it more than once. Different that recycling because it's not being reprocessed.
Obvious Examples: used books, cars, bottle with flower, reusing hair for hair, sinking ships into reefs, cigarette butts into wool, repurposing things in fashion, cassette tapes into fabric, prefab bar made from tubs lights up the night, refurbishing electronics, mooncup
Where to look, etsy.com, treehugger.com, inhabitat.com

Connor:
before WWII, people measure value in products of how well they were built and how easy they were to fix themselves. Today we value the rapid turnover of products, rapid upgrade cycle. 
iphone has no user fixable parts, taking teh cover off voids the warranty even if it's a service provider.

Luca:
refurbished products not in Europe

Alison:
Industrial reuse: Andrew Hessel, biotech companies buying rights to our waste because it's so fertile with bacteria. What's happening on the microscale that we can scale up to have a bigger influence?

RECYCLING
See document in email from Matt Kern
Matt: 
70-80% of bottles end up in landfills, a lot of it in China
Plastics are biggest source of waste stream
Chiara: Wants to handle compost during next talk
Vincent: Where are best recycling markets?
Alison: What's the process beginning to end?
Luca: Nice to find reports of energy usage for recycling

RECOVER (energy from waste...)
Francesco: 
Diverts waste from waste stream, waste-to-energy, burn waste simply to reduce size/volume without collecting electricity
Incinerator: half is for producing energy, other half is for collecting emmisions (NOx, SOx, ash, etc)

JC:Alternative Technologies, thermal/non-thermal technologies, Anaerobic Digestion, hydrogen from farm waste, San Francisco GreaseCycle Program, Hydrogen from Waste Materials, Cellulosic Ethanol from wood

Everson: comparison of cost per MW

DISPOSAL/LANDFILL
Andrews: why do we use landfills? probably because it's cheaper or some other incentive...
Recycling is putting cost to tax payer.
Aluminum great energy savings, others not so great
Plastics, more expensive to buy recycled plastic and it's not as durable. 
NY Times Article in 1996, recycling may be the greatest waste of time in human and natural resources
Dumps, things that make it there are things that aren't business models - if we can make it profitable then it would be easier to market. Easier to get them to not go into dumps rather than mining dumps.

Bryce: I disagree. I think landfills are great potential power sources. Incinerating Trash is classified as a renewable resource - same as a solar panels but trash has up to 37% energy, solar only 12%
Basel Convention convention on hazardous waste. Bioremediate toxic materials into less toxic materials before burning. Expensive to get rid of toxic waste cheaply.

Tony: In waste collection, N-Vac system below some cities in Europe to automatically bring waste to landfill
Landfills are covered everyday with soil, blanket, foam, wood, sewage to prevent rodents
Compressibility and thickness need to be considered.
US Government monitors landfill for 30 years and after that you are no longer responsible. Fresh Kills landfills being converted to parks. Biggest landfill now in LA. 
Great Garbage Patch in Pacific is the size of Texas is mostly particulate plastics because of currents in ocean forming vortex

Lauren: Pull a liter of water out, some particles. It goes down tens of meters. Not that you can walk on it. How do you filter out this much garbage at this low of a density? Fish eat it then we eat it....

Brad: any examples of capturing methane?

Bryce: misconception that gas is pure methane. it's only 50-60% methane, the rest is dioxins so it must be treated first. 

Bryan: methane generation requires moisture and modern landfills are dry tombs. Then they said, let's make it generate methane. Recyled bottom waste water. Can't capture all the methane, 15-20% leakage. Methane 20-100x more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2

Vincent: how to capture?

Bryan: trucks go into to working area of landfill. end of day cover with waste. pretty soon after covering, food waste uses oxygen and generates CO2. then it uses oxygen and generates methane. in USA, required to cap each working cell withing 5 years but food breaks down after 6 months. Put on clay cap, not impermeable put pipes over to capture methane. Have to put this through a reformer to dry and separate the gas. Then goes into internal combustion. Could possibly use this gas for fuel cell but this is expensive.

COMMENTS
Ola: you guys are coming up to speed very fast - great job
Chiarra G: some numbers missing from presentations
JC: how are we going to choose the project? 
Lauren: depends on what the group feels. 
Chiarra T: useful to have more numbers in consistent format - costs, impact on environment, energy useage.
Brad: I'm going to try to make the information more visual, thanks for graphs and pictures
Francesco: I need to see the big picture better.
Lauren: Books: Economics of Waste, UN Report on Waste Management, read links on TP10
Luca: I think it would be useful to provide sources with numbers and figures
Kidist: Easy way to compare advantages and disadvantages. Split content or country wise
Alison: Would like to see who we are impacting, portrait of people we are impacting. Like exporting plastic China, how does that affect Chinese
Andrew: like big picture type solution, want to look at overall impact on society. 
Everson: what problems are there in the industry?
Connor: agree with big picture. always low-hanging fruit, big picture from new perscpective 
Matt: looking at big picture and focusing on helping people first and then the amount of money.
Vince: really understand what is going on. How can we make a big impact, competition, regulation, grants, new technologies.
Bryce: not sure if there is a \"big picture\". it seems like upcycling is a homogenous area. as soon as people have an idea about what to do, it does become more exciting. 
Bryan: nothing specific
Tony: nothing specific
Lauren: you guys are doing a great job, don't underestimate what you have done. this is only the first round. we are running across really cool technologies and really great companies, we can't miss out on that. as we continute to build better understanding of problem space, we need to start adding things to a list that has a brief description of the technology with links... time to availability... consider ethics... legal limitations...
Bryce: voluteered to create document with companies

Monday is a working sessions: Bryan is leading discussion
Looking at waste within systems. May be able to do one of Alison's IDEO excersizes.
Read industrial ecology stuff on wiki (2 and 3)

Figure out who has access to pub med like facilities and put those resources up

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpupcycle-Jul15-Team-Meeting
"July 15, 2010

Alison Moderating

Missing:
Everson
Steve
Kidist
Zain
Andrew

Review Liddy Carter

What did you guys think of Liddy?

Connor: Concentrate on organic because inorganic is too heavily regulated - lots of money potential. She can look 3-5 years in advance and make 5x the investment.

Kausar: Cautiously optimistic. As a metric, only use $$$$$. Health, kg etc, only keep internal.

Vincent: Regulation is difficult to change, go into area with little regulation. Common credit in Europe cahnges all the time. If there is a lesser impact, people will adopt it. Look at non-hazardous (example of Omega-3 from fish heads being worth more). Waste is an oppurtunity - consistent waste streams. Scale is importatnt especially globally. Rare earth materials, high values or higher volume waste streams. Phosphorous. Will send list of sources. Look at easily consolidated waste streams. Shorter term look for easily changed markets. Oil purification systems. 

Chiarra G: She mentioned how to divide upcycle... Heat, food, etc...

Bryce: We should not have to separate out how we feel and how the project is structured. 

Vincent: Only if you have something to say, then raise your hand or voice. 

Tony: Use the facilitation method: Head (what you thought?), heart (how you felt?), hand (what can you do now?)

Chiarra: Let's just try to do something and do it rather than changing our minds every 20 minutes.

Ola: Policy of SU is for faculty to stay away until

Formalizing Categories
Brainstorm: What types of waste are there?
*=actual categories

*Organic (chemical = hydrocarbon-based, agricultural = compostable)
*Inorganic
*Toxic
*Non-Toxic
Solid
Liquid
Gas
Industrial
Consumer
Heat
Rare
Common
Recyclable
Compost
Hazard
Biological
Non-Hazardous
Regulated
Non-Regulated
Nuclear
Grey Water

Hazardous vs Toxic - compressed air is hazardous but non-toxic

Hazardous Waste from EPA Perspective: 
Is it excluded from RCRA?
Is it listed as a hazardous waste?
Does it have characteristics of hazardous waste?

Bryce: The sooner we adopt limits and structure, the sooner we can move forward. Let's split it up by sectors...

Brainstorming of Sectors:
Agriculture
Radio-Active
Clinical Waste
Industrial
Chemical - Luca/Francesco
Construction - Vincent/JC
Paper Printing - Bryce/Tony
Wood - Brad/Zain
Metal - Chiaras
Food/Beverage - Matt/Kausar
Mining - Alison/Andrew
Household
Commercial

Types (potential aspects of each sector):
Hazardous
Non Hazardous
Organic
Non Organic
Inustrial
Consumer

Break up into groups for an hour.....

Francesco, chemicals, difficult to find where to start because the industry is so large and interdependent

Brad: Need to know the process that generates a waste stream

Andrew: Mining: Easy to find \"here are things in mining waste\" and \"here are mining practices.\" Difficult to penetrate.

Alison: Mining: Found document that mentions the problem spaces and potential solutions

Tony/Bryce: Paper: Found a good paper that summarizes the entire pulp/paper production process. At this point, it may be more useful to read a document to understand it rather than putting numbers into a table. 

Vincent/Brad: Construction: Created a mind map. Different construction materials in US and non-US construction (lots of wood waste)

Kausar: Food: 40% wasted, $70/ton higher in US than in other countries because of lobbyists, overconsumption, lack of planning. \x3c3% of compostable waste is actual composted. Software package and weighing system that calculates the amount of food being wasted. 

Discuss NEXT MEETING:
-Identify Problems and Solutions
-Larger Categories??

Andrew: Worried that the way we're splitting up doesn't get us closer to the deliverables

Lauren: There is probably going to be a common theme between each sector

Andrew: Create a common format

GROUPS (pre task force):
Chemical - Luca/Francesco
Construction - Vincent/JC
Paper Printing - Bryce/Tony
Wood - Brad/Zain
Metal - Chiaras
Food/Beverage - Matt/Kausar
Mining - Alison/Andrew

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpupcycle-Jul5-Upcycle-TP
"Assigned room in Bldg 583C for the first TP meetings the afternoon of 5 July 2010.
Upcycle - Room 104A (inner) 'room D'

Google group: https://groups.google.com/a/singularityu.org/group/upcycle

TP Upcycle

Erika Anderson
Vincent Daranyi
Connor Dickie
Luca Escoffier
Andrew Fursman
Francesco Galietti
Chiara Giovenzana
Bryce Goodman
Matthew Kern
James Kohlenberg
Alison Lewis
Everson Lopes
Juan Lopez
Young Suc Lyu
Chiara Turelli
Kidist Zeleke
introduction from leaders; Priv is out for the moment b/c she has visa issues...
Ola-Nuclear engineering & energy, from Nigeria, lots of experience /w renewable energy...
Fletcher-buy him a beer to find out what he does

Intro
Some of you are going to get disillusioned and decide spending your days at SF is better than being here...Andrew Fursman: \"sounds good\"....so problem is how to keep eevryone involved...
Lauren: \"if i have to bring you coffee in the morning i will charge it to the budget, frothy coffees, whatever it is that it takes to get you involved, i will do it\"
\"if nobody had come I'd have to go back to the lab to do my real job....so thank you for coming\"

Deliverables
*Exponential technologies impact report (ETIR)
1st: general review, try to understand problem space...what is the problem space & why is it a problem?
2nd: how can we bring the technologies that exist to bare on the problem space...this is the 'due diligence' to convince yourself that the idea you came up with before you started (if you had one) is in fact the best one
3rd: narrow down, of all the techs these are the ones that look most promising, we could form an NGO, company, tech research, etc.

Due: Fri - 7/23 ETIR .1
Due: Tues - 8/3 ETIR 1.0 & Plan 0.1

*Development plan and standup review
What are you actually going to develop during final 3 weeks of the program
There needs to be 1 presentation & 1 report, but there can be sub-groups that are clustered around different aspects of a central problem, they should support each other...

Due: Friday - 8/6 Plan 1.0

*Project focus
*Full final presentation
*short presentation
Student intro's

Video and discussion
intro to pyramid and division into research groups

HW: Next friday have everyone's picture and background

Focus on the global problem not just US, though US is 70% consumtion of earth

Work with industries rather tahn guilt consumers

Focus on changing waste on back end (possibly too late?) or produciton on front end?

I. Reduce
1. Reduce consumerism, make non-disposable products
2. Reduce waste in production process
3. Reduce
II. Reuse
1. Close the loop at every step
III. Recycle

China
Single largest contributor to CO2 levels but per capita it is the lowest, they don't want to change their ways until western per capita is equal
How can we do that?
- If we have something that makes sense they will copy it.

Shaming companies instead of consumers for going towards disposable materials (Swiffer, razor blades)
Having companies think about the entiire life cycle of their products (Would Walmart? but it's not walmart it's the producers)

Suggested Constraints
1. Don't think about separating organic waste from water
2. Don't worrk about consumer electronics and automible recycling
3. Don't worry about carbon reclammation and sequestering but think of things like biochar and carbon credits if the oppu=ortunity presents itself

S

Existing Pad: http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-upcycle
Wiki: https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/tp-4-recycling

UPCYCLE INFORMAL MEETING NOTES 7/7/2010

Alison:
Will bring team building exercises for friday

Francesco:
1. First Period is general learning and team building
- Friday meeting to share what we've each discovered
- Use Bryce's friends to ask a bunch of questions that we'll have
- Follow up with ILSR (institute for local self reliance)
2. Second Period is existing Patent discovery, IP and investors feedback phase
- Lauren said don't do this but probably okay as long as we do our due diligence first
3. Third phase is ETIR

What about any report we develop?

Luca: (responding to the report question)
We need to understand from the beginning the school's position on legal matters
1. If there is no novel tech developed and instead just an idea or report is created, what is the school's position?
2. If we have to license tech from university or research group what is the school's position?
- Bring these questions to Lauren on Friday

Alison:
Alison will push for room A

Lauren: We will have a much clearer description of the ETIR in the next day or so, and this will help significantly to understand what steps should be in what order. Roughly, steps 2 and 3, as you have them, are reversed and you've left out investigation of the problem space. Anyway, stay tuned. It will all make sense.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpupcycle-7-20-meeting
"Upcycle Team Meeting - July 20, 2010
Kausar Moderating

TIm Williams is a great resource for organic related topics/ideas

Bryan will begin the talk:
Organics in Human Economy
Humans are like parasites

Homing in on farming
2 ideals
beautiful complex farm and space ship like farm
neither of which we have

two ideas come from tow ideas of soil
one is full of bacteria and symbiotic organisms
one is isolated, aeroponics where we take it out of all the complexity

What we have: Mature Grassland turned into mechanized monoculture

Take Mature Forest ecosystems and turn it into monoculture forestry

Mechanical trees: grow to their height and fall down
if you replant the tree you are not recreating the forest
Clear cutting like Madagascar, erossion, rivers filled with soil (if waste is loss of value, this is large scale)
Areas for conecern of soil degradation is all over the world

Soil isn't easily replaced, slow natural process. 30cm takes 50 years where sediments are built up rapidly
Q: Andrew: who's able to make soil faster unnaturally?
creating new soil is possible but it's very difficult to scale.

one rainstorm can remove 1mm of dirt - it would take 13tons of topsoil or 20 years to replace

US loosing soil 10x faster, China/India 30-40x faster than natural replenishment rate

$37.6 billion cost for loss of soil / errosion 
what we have is less soil and more dirt.
more like hydroponics flushed with nutrients

Forests preserve the nutrients but we don't ahve this in farming. We use fertilizer.

3-5% of natural gas production, 100M tons/year for Nitrogen

Phosphorous production is in decline, we aren't able to increase the production of phosphorous 

Plentiful Potassium

Water Pollution --> can algae bloom be transformed into a good thing?
Fertilizer run off -> algae bloom -> oxygen depletion -> biodiversity loss
Tim: algae bloom can be good if it's harvested and utilizied 
Tim: bad if you leave algae, good if you harvest it
Tony: oxygen or CO2?
Bryan: CO2 sucked up during day, O2 at night. When it dies it's the eutrophic cycle. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eutrophication 

Nitrogen oxidized by atmosphere so whatever N2 isn't absorbed by plants becomes a green-house gas
NO2 is 300 times more powerful than CO2, however it's in a lower quantity in the air
methane is 21 times CO2 for green house impact??

Landfill Methane created it's capped

Open Loop Disaster
Linear production, soil loss, nutrient loss, energy for artificial fertilizers, pollution, climate change, bio loss, biosystem collapse

Examples: manue, meat processing, food processing, biotech/bioenergy waste, spoilage, consumption wastes, human feces

Learned many techniques from the dust bowl
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dust_Bowl
contour farming has been helpful in improving the lose of nutrients
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contour_plowing

Organic Upcycling:
Compost and return to the soil...

Soil Restoration:
mine tailings: bunch of junk leftover after mining
biochar - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biochar
digestate - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digestate

Solution Space:
Composting
Anaerobic digestion
Pyrolytic coversion
Waste stream blending
Bio-remediation
Monitoring/Reporting
Knowledge bases
Social transformation

Home Composting: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Composting
In: everything. Kitchen scraps (amazing how much organic waste is created). 
Out: Lots of organic material, biochar, worm casting. Creates terrific soil. Takes about a year for a great composting pile...

What materials do you not include in the compost?
Everything except for meat and plastic..

Q: Lauren --> How can you make the compost faster, instead of 6 -12 months?

In-Vessel Aerobic Composting - http://vcutechnology.com/

q: can you actually compost meat?
a: Yes, but it smells kind of bad, but not that bad. Brian doesn't do this because it will attract animals such as ratcoons etc. It could about $1000 to build it as a kit. It would be about a few hundred if I built it myself. Can provide costs for palo alto composting ...

q: what type of bacteria are in compost heaps?
there are many different types not sure exactly which ones, some mushrooms of course...

anaerobic digestion:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anaerobic_digestion

there are two types of anerobic digestion: wet and dry

Wet: Methane comes out top, use for combustion
Dry: Solids put into storage for fermentation, pull off methane, use remaining for compost

Low-Tech Anaerobic Digestion: first feed farm animals, then put waste and remaining solids into pile. Cover to capture methane and then use this methane to cook food. 

methane is used to cook the food for the pigs to eliminate pathogens from the food so that the pigs stay healthy. probably not the most efficient use of the methane in this low tech anaerobic process.

Biochar/Bio Oil
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biochar
Feed food/yard waste into the system, it cooks it without oxygen (no burning,like closed pot on stove). Results in charcoal which is beneficial for soil - no nutrients, pure carbon. Microstructure with microscopic holes that bacteria find a suitable home. Also retains water and increases air flow. When you mix it into the soil, it stays there because it is a stable form of carbon. Carbon sequestration
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_sequestration

Biochar website --> cost about ~$15k to $20k, unknown overall economics seems debatable at this point
http://www.biochar.org/joomla/

Lauren: Is this something that's viable in the developing world where cost is a bigger concern?
Tim: In West Africa, they have a process of recreational burning where they watch 2-3000mi of vegetation. All of this biomass could be better utilized (burnin makes the nutrients go into atmosphere). If you had a system that makes this transportable, could work.

Closing Remark: Waste recovery, not waste disposal

Harvest Power is coming in to talk to us
http://www.harvestpower.com/

Luca's Slides: Agricultural Waste
encourage smart agricultural practices, reduce nutrient and pesticide usage
Chart of top global companies in water

Everson: water team had a presenter talk about bacteria useful for water filtration

Brad: would like to see more streams of waste besides water from ag

Tim: Dealing with poultry waste, can extract oils, nitrogen and ammonia for fertilizer.

Ola: Would it be dentrimental for human health to use poultry droppings to feed to fish?
Tim: you are not only feeding fish but you are adding ammonia to the water. Also bacterial (ecoli) contamination.
Kausar: This may promote the spread of avian flu

Last question for Tim
Tony: Oppurtunity for Phosphorous capture?
Tim: unless you use a concentrated source maybe not.... biological concentrators, extract from fish?
Bryan: phosphorous is mined. Low concentrations everywhere, high concentrations not too often. Peek phosphorous has been reached but because cost is still low, there isn't a big push for recovery.
Chiarra G: how efficient are we at recovery?
Bryan: Not sure. If you can find a process to recover phosphate in soil then you got it.

Francesco: should we contact Liddy about phosphorous? I can contact her right away...

Zain: People that we should contact!!!!
Get experts in a specific field rather than upcycle in general
1) Cradle to Cradle author, William McDonough: working with NASA for sustainability base
http://www.amazon.com/Cradle-Remaking-Way-Make-Things/dp/0865475873
Will be US Government's only LEED-certified building - this is the building under construction at the entrace of AMES

for other contacts see Zain's presentation (email forwarded from Kausar)
5 contacts several amazing people we should connect with

Tony's Slides: Electronic Waste
Biggest companies in industry: Walmart, Bank of America, AT&T included in list?
Material waste and software waste
1 metric ton of circuit boards contains, 40-800x gold mined in US, 30-40x copper mined in US
1 million laptops, lots of homes electricity equivalent

Phase 1 -> First Use
Phase 2 -> Second Use
Phase 3 -> Reach End of Life Management
Phase 4 -> Recycling Processing

Cell Phones, 2 year life span, recycled 10%
In Storage: not used or recycled, 10%
Combusted: use as fuel \x3c\x3c19%
At least 80% to landfill

lauren: effectiveness of electronics recycling --> in the end not much real recyling is actually happening

Consumer electronics \x3c2% of municipal solid waste but contains toxic substances, rapid growth may change this.

This seems to be a pretty crowded space now in terms of startups going after this space

Bryce's Slides: Paper and Pulp Industry
Diagram showing the simplified flow diagram of an integrated mill
66% of TRI 
Areas for waste reduction: chemical recovery, chlorinated compound reduction, secondary and recylced fiber use
Anthraquinone catalysis: enhances paper recycling by breaking down fibers
Enzyme treatment of pulp: xylanases
Enzyme treatment for de-inking

40% of power used to power paper plants is already from organic effluents

Thursday Presentation Bob Winslow: Terradex CEO - IT company for looking at landuse/toxic waste has been moved to next week

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpupcycle-July-27-Team-Meeting
"Connor:
Bioplastics: 
multiple organisms that create PHB. 
mostly consider growing in bioreactors
alternatives -> probiotics (internal to the body)
include microorganisms in animal feed
ecoli produces PHB
maximize methane, minimize nitrogen
do experiment to see if PHB can be generated in our poop
long-term, cow would be generting plastic

Biotechnology to create biodegradeable materials ->
From Frank Feher at goodyear who started a Biotechnology project to create isoprene molecules from a biotech process and then create Polyisoprene from this monomer

http://www.linkedin.com/in/fjfeher 

You also might want to track down the CTO or VP for R&D at Natureworks LLC (see:http://www.natureworksllc.com/). 

If you need something else, please let me know. 
One guy you should talk to about \"green\" plastics, etc is Oliver Peoples. He's very smart. Although not a traditional plastics guy, he almost certainly has learned a great deal and is likely to be able to provide a good overview of the issues and needs. 

Oliver Peoples @ Metabolix
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/oliver-peoples/17/265/884

Tony:
Waste Broker:
one central place for people to see who is producing what
private information
software 
Brad: with website and waste broker, you could use AI to judge inputs and outputs

Chiara G:
Biowaste for energy and compost http://www.superiorservicerecycling.com/
Brad: 62% of waste
Lauren: phosphorous is valueble, what if you could recollect this from compost?
Using Plastic for other uses: clothing, boats...

Downstream algae blooms from waste-water treatment plants that don't separate out phosphorous
Figuring out a good way to capture phosphorous could be huge

Matt: Plastiki, boat made from plastic bottles, \"reuse\", sailed to sydney from SF http://www.theplastiki.com/

Zain: terracycle, turning waste into a nubmer of other products, \"reuse\"

Andrew: instead of collecting a million different things from post-consumer waste, collecting a lot of one thing from one company or group.
Alison: putting biotech near manufacturing
Andrew: changing what you put into the manufacturing
so you could do 2 things: collect stuff after use or use other stuff

Brad: make composting easier. add waste option for compost. ways to accelerate compost, heat + rotating. ways to extract other things besides soil. combination of composting methods fermi composting with worms, bokashi composting for meats. use with waste treatement plants. create tumbler devices with modular attachments that can be self sustained devices for developing countries and municpalities alike

Chiara T: Biochar
pyrolisis of biomass in general vs composting
efficient, self-sufficient, exothermic transformation
use as a sink of carbon
can be used as a slow-release fertilizer
50% energy...
http://biochar.ca/
Kidist: if you make this, it could be marketable in the developing world as a replacement for kerosine
Chiara: there is already an example of this (lucia stove)
Brad: adding biochar to compost -> supersoil!
(benefits and consequences of using BioChar http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/03/biochar-is-no-climate-change-miracle-cure-george-monbiot-says.php) 

JC: fuel from chicken feathers
Links for chicken feathers: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/et-cetera/Indian-American-professor-turns-chicken-feathers-into-fuel/articleshow/5670477.cms
http://portal.acs.org/portal/acs/corg/content?_nfpb=true&_pageLabel=PP_ARTICLEMAIN&node_id=222&content_id=CNBP_022276&use_sec=true&sec_url_var=region1&__uuid=
Connor: group in Idaho to think about what to do with all these chicken feathers... recently, discovered putting them in vacuum and heating = nicely formed nanotubes
http://www.greenoptimistic.com/2009/06/25/carbonized-chicken-feathers-hydrogen-storage/

Lauren: byproducts from industry you never thought would be useful. cocunut husks used for sequestering gold. what else can we do with piles of stuff that wouldn't be used??

Steve: corn cobs useful for tires - greater snow traction! what else can corn be used for? 
Connor: pipes!

Luca: recovery of rare materials from waste. phosphorous from water 

Alison: materials from biological processe

Matt: A student dicovered a microb that eats plastic 
http://www.mnn.com/green-tech/research-innovations/blogs/boy-discovers-microbe-that-eats-plastic

Dow and Crystalsev to make bioplastic in Brazil
http://cleantech.com/news/1496/dow-crystalsev-bioplastic-brazil

Brad: http://novomer.com/ converting CO2/CO into plastics no need for petrochemicals anymore

Vincent: tire disposal use for roads but there isn't a full system for recycling...
Chiara G: use for insultation

Zain: 
Mitchell Joachim building houses from meat or plants - totally organic
http://www.ted.com/talks/mitchell_joachim_don_t_build_your_home_grow_it.html
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2010-07/12/meat-house

Brad: playground that captures electricity

Piezo electric floors http://www.inhabitat.com/2008/12/11/tokyo-subway-stations-get-piezoelectric-floors/

Recycling old tires to make shoes that are provided to people globally

Connor: Steve, what are the wastes coming out of Goodyear?
Steve: we have rubber and other materials come in and get mixed together, waste generated along the way and either reincorperated into the system or sold. \"zero waste created\" but this can mean just sold off... when tires are used, small particles of rubber released into the environment. recycling of tires has a lot of creative oppurtunities.

Andrew: how does everyone feel about the type of system where you buy one thing and give one of them to some other group? http://www.toms.com/
Chiara: wouldn't happen in italy because people don't think that the money's going where they say

alison: melissa's shoes:
http://www.melissaplasticdreams.com/home/usa

Chiara G: wouldn't happen in

growing clothes http://www.biocouture.co.uk/

Kathryn: Write a two paragraph summery of what upcycle is ..

Priv: Think about the energy put into anabolic vs. energy from catabolic processes
Show me the money, finances have to be taken into account

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpupcycle-July-29-Team-Meeting
"Alison: Looking at a lot of solutions, but not asking any questions....

Kausar: For example, what if we could replace all petrochemicals with bioplastics in 10 years? And how do you get there?

Andrew: Narrowing down problem space is the best way to go?

Alison: are others looking through lenses? how many people are you affecting? why is this [upcycle] so hard to discuss? how do you make people care? what are others' questions?

Andrew: are these questions you want to have asked when we are looking at solutions?

Alison: Make sure that everyone is on the same page.... before you start you need to where people start....

Kausar: Tasks:
1) Investigate Exponential Technologies
Nano
Bio
Info
Robotics
What specific problems will it address?

2) Narrow problem space...

3) Market dimensions?
1B people?

Chiara: Pre-screening to remove solutions....

Bob Wenzlau - Terradex
Webcrawler business for GIS
Masters in environmetal engineering

What is upcycle: Connor, what is one person's waste is someone elses feedstock. talking about waste streams not as waste streams but as potential, closing the loop...
Bob: that was good!

\"Long-Term Stewardship of Environmentally Impaired Land - Service|Business\"
I'm a part of your team so if you need me as a resource don't hesitate
first recycling center in 1971

Worked on recycling for 10 years
Well versed in the space, curb-side pickup worked on at Berkeley.

Bryan: Long is familiar with Biogas production from organic waste stream in Palo Alto

Terradex was/is a reasonable success
6 years old
Passion + Environmental business doesn't always line up with economic success
Challenge that Terradex took on was interesting: Sell a service called 'LandWatch' that watches landfills etc. To make sure there is no leaking, keep track of regulations, push alerts to those who need them, etc.
in US there are 600,000 sites where pollutants are left in the ground, toxics, non exploded ordinance (bombs)
275,000 leaking underground hazardous waste containers

typical reaction is the polluter cleans up 
ticholoroethene, benzene in the range of 1000ppm leaking you can breathe it, drink it.... broad impact...
outlined the social problem
Engineer gets payed to go in and clean it up to 99.999%
3-4 9's is usually good enough for an engineer.... from health standpoint need 1ppb, 1ppm not good enough

cat and mouse goventment, environmentalists 
What ends up happening at these sites is a residual is left

perpetual environmenal residuals

brown side, cities
green side, landscapes

how over time do we safe guard these communities? time frame, 1000 years...

Environmental agencies vs local government - when the agency has completed clean up to a certain extent, push to local government

In terms of business -> it's a great vehicle for environmental change but not necessarily easy!
\"who is your customer\" becomes complex

in 2004 goal of business helping safeguard to provide environmental stewardship guidelines after sites are cleaned up... didn't work

catalog sites and help local governments make informed decisions

polluter is the payer
regulator sets business rules
local government is part of solution

took to VC's, how do you control value proposition? can you warrant your result?
found out you can't do this when local government is making decisions...

example: landfill
first 50 years, methane generation
after that there are still haz chemicals in it
kausar: are you managing this landfill or monitoring it??
found out that we ned to responsible for this. we need to monitor and operate like a city government. has a catalog of policies, laws...

learned that you could harvest permiting, excavation, laws, etc information from the internet through crawling

Each month monitoring in California 30,000 land activities from 100 sources

close to real time monitoring

example: homes built on top of hooker chemical near niagara falls in NY.
US government took money to generate scoring system 

superfund - http://www.epa.gov/superfund/ - chemical companies set aside money for potential future clean-up

landwatch service from Terradex
customer draws the area they are working on and says we can't do this and this and this here. example no excavation. 
potentially impacted millions of people because 2000-3000 unsafe acts were stopped in their service area (600,000 sites, 700 sites under their management, 500,000 acres of land)
piggyback existing laws that say that (in california) for every excavation, call 811 and linked this into the system. clever idea! got a patent!

no competitors really but in this space, hope that higher safety standards will exist

LITTLE USE OF INTERNET IN ENVIRONMENTAL SPACE!
Only problem is economics, how do you get a payer, customer, lots of innovation but challenge is who is going to pay the bill and who is going to set the standard
One way is to come up with standards, \"hey you have to meet this standard\" and then people will pay to meet this standard

profitable, growing, still small...

180 differnet places to discover if you have a polluted site...

created a mashup for environmental data sets

like social media at work - local government, excavator, day care owner all mixed together....

alison: how do you know if all the data is good?

bob: the enemy of good is perfect... if you stop 3 out of 4 unsafe acts, it's ok!

building a swimming pool over an old oil field...

many customers are on for 30+ years, how do you manage this? possibly work with NGO so that it can last forever

Kausar: what happens after you issue an alert?
Bob: if you are about to tell someone that you are about to do an unsafe act, a lot of lights go off. no one has really said, up yours. built in a shame factor, multiple parties know... environmental justice. bilingual issues. 

Kausar: briefly sum up some of the needs that you see that aren't being met?
Bob: we are working on bring environemtnal knowledge to mobile devices, iphones
energy space, rebates, geospacial into multiple areas
international work, need for exchange formats. how do different countries share infomraiton. ariba for business to business

kausar: how do we get nation states to communicate? what are the key isseus? market need?
Bob: award for multination mashup for air quality. put together data related to air quality. some reactions, the data might be the same but the value towards the data may be different. clean air day in china may be hazardous air day in UK but there wasn't a tool to say china didn't have UK clean air day. wasn't a standard for this. separate data from value. if you already give data that is biased and let values be established from the data. evnironmental KML built around google earth platform.

kausar: similar to water?
bob: lots of science but not lots of information innovation. what could we do with mashups or inexpensive web services? as easy to drop a site in mexico as it is in the us... google maps give you a geospacial business platform.

IDEO - David Blakeley 
Dave: most significant areas you've discuss
Kausar: 
post-consumer solid waste
food/ag waste
paper/wood
construction
plastics
mining/fly ash
electronic
one of the biggest problems is figuring out how to narrow down

alison: we would like to ask questions

kausar: like what do you have to do to replace all petrochemicals with bioplastics in 10 years? so what we would we need is strategies, technologies, oppurtunities...

tony: 80 solutions, have to narrow down

andrew: will become more apparent eventually

dave: with a huge group like this, like to suggest that challenge areas may be too specific... you may want to think about megatrends. social, economical, political. strategic overview.... at intersections of megatrends, think about various technologies you've been hearing about....consider that maybe the best oppurtunities. focus on megatrends in the world that have a direct bearing on waste.... read up on them with a lens of immediate upcycle...

andrew: field trip to water treatement plant. oppurtunity for Cu/topsoil extraction... any ideas for techniques that we could focus on without going on thousands of fieldtrips?

dave: synthesis i described before is great. this is not the optimal group size... lots of itme on production, lots of time of ideation... wheres the time for absorbing... see if you can catch all the corners in this challenging space.... divide yourselves up into groups of 2 or 3 and have primary source research done. create map as a large group that is comprehensive... look for recurring trends... recycle, repurpose, reuse... what are themes that come up that we can drill into deeply... when you have your synthesis session i will join you... 

tangible to abstract back to tangible

can't just go to guys at waste water treatment and find that copper comes out. must typically find the higher level, 6 groups coming together with their own ideas...

alison: some comfortable with tangible, some comfortable with intangible....

dave: this is a foggy problem program - service, hardware, policy that is software enabled.... you don't already know the answer and if you think you do you should abandon it. as long as you all agree on the framework and the dates and times and have a process.. beyond that its a foggy project

everson: can we use market research etc?
dave: i would suggest primary source and also secondary source reading, policy, product design or marketing. general market factors... 100 page report how ot summarize framework and conduct interview....

dave: what is the deliverable for monday?

lauren: common language, general research, identify specific problem statements.... at the same time see specific solutions... what we haven't done yet is find specific problem statements and solutions and find the intersections...

chiara: such a great oppurtunity that you are here, what you are saying should ahve been done atthe really really beginning. we shouldn't spend as much time on the report but what we can do in the next couple weeks.... 

andrew: things that are to go in the report can help us with this.... 

everson: have we done enough primary research yet? group, no... point is great that until monday we try to find more primary...

dave: on monday you owe a pusuasive document..... suggestion, retain thoughts of primary source as a way to refine... 

tony: last week we had a draft due.... our goal was to make a good document... our only real timeline is the end of singularity... don't think that this should guide our process..... we should hand in what we have...

dave: what i would do: lowest priority is what we hand in on monday... tomorrow, group share of divergent perspectives with ideas on how to converge. separately try to communicate thoughts and ideas. sort yourselfs on self-selected groups. find room with big wall. five minutes briefing everyone else with their perspectives.... put post its up... as SU students, look for emerging trends and ideas.... i think the chart lauren drew needs a title and focus, narrower perspectives.... can't have a million solutions and problems.... need to be in the context of key themes that emerge across relevant ideas... identify crisper theme in upcycle.... the problem space is pretty broad,find a common idea...

we are going to have to leave stones unturned.... focus on one area!

solutions as enabling technologies, problems are more specific problems in the megatrends....

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpupcycle-Priv
"LanzaTech, took all sorts of waste and used bio tech (engineering and natural) and made fuel from chemicals. Selective adaptation to become accustomed to environment from . Also think about what the bio creates.

2,3-butanediol as intermediary.

Contacts with James Woolsey

Ghosts of Upcycle, if you were pitching to the following, what would they say

Clausius' First Law of Thermodynamics: energy in = energy out
hydrocarbons today are high energy density
how do you ensure that the reactions you're considering don't defy thermo?
examples: interview with company that produces fuels from cellulosic materials. she asked, is your process catabolic or anabolic? answered that it's not important. decided not to work
biomass to turn into sugars is easier because it's the intermidiery
flue gas to carbon monoxide is easier \" \" \" \" 
starch/cellulose
question the conversion energy that goes in vs the energy that is released
if only 30% of your energy density is being converted, this isn't an efficient process

John Muir (The Sierra Club) - classic tree hugger
from his angle, does it look right from a life cycle analysis?
Are you considering all angles?
Example: 7 barrels of water to produce 1 barrel of oil, 19 barrels of water to product 1 barrel of biofuel... is this looking at the right angle?
Lanzatech considered not to look at biomass, looked at waste gasses instead. First time, we are going to turn your flue gas into fuel. Flammable liquid on our property? No way!! Second time, We are going to address the carbon problem... open arms!
Distilation is energy intensive (lots of waste heat in steel mills). Optimized this process.
What are the other verticals you are looking at?

Carnegie: Show me the money!
Does it make sense economically today?
Whatever you use as a feedstock, there are a lot
Andrew: consider money from the beginning?
Priv: at least have the lens on up front....
$1/gal ethanol, no one talks about capital costs.... which were ~$10/gal. This is not presented, CTO just says scale efficiencies will accomplish this.
When looking at feedstock, how expensive? For every gallon of ethanol, $0.73 for biomass only....
Agricultural waste as a resource -> waste management (company) started charging people for this because they realized that it's a commodity. Medical waste is still not considered a feedstock
Opex AND Capex - scaling up is not obvious
Lanza Tech: Gassification plant - ~$800M - because it's expensive, getting biomass to carbon monoxide or sugars. Because CO is already made by some other companies, you don't need the $800M intermediary. 
Find resources that make sense up front
Looked at landfills, 2M gal of methane doesn't jsutify the cost for capital....
Make sure that you're usign realistic today's prices
Who's the bank?? Don't rely on subsidies because they don't last forever

Ghandi: Concept of the Charkha
movement that says be self-sufficient (boycott British goods)
is it swadeshi? (self-sufficient)
if you do this in the US, can you do this on China or India?
Example: Fuel, in Brazil ethanol works because they have a lot of sugar but this doesn't necessarily mean you can do this globally in each country

Jintao and Political Will:
question: if i told you thtat I can make fuel and chemicals using waste gasses from industrial processes, don't let it go to CO2, recycle carbon one more time do you like this?
Go to White House, they think it's a great idea.
Only subsidies now for industries that create fuel from agriculture
Spent a year trying to get ideas out but not enough money to pay lobbyists
helped municipal waste get in but that's it 
India: enough steel mills, they want ethanol as transient fuel, but all sugar in India is made to create alcohol for consumption. Price for alcoholic ethanol is higher than fuel ethanol. Everyone wants it but it doesn't make economic sense
Andrew and Connor: \"Turn waste into alcohol. Get wasted off waste!\"
Partnered with Shanghai company

Priv's career: a few cellulosic ethanol company, then Lanza Tech 

Look at places where Construction/Demolition Debris is free. 

Feedstocks is the oppurtunity, what you can do with these feedstocks are where the upcycle is....

municipal solid waste - the big problems are associated with sorting.... much of it is done manually
In India, little piles of trash. Not much wasted but it isn't dealt with properly. If you could incentivize rickshaw drivers to collect waste this is a potential oppurtunity

Tony: getting waste and turning it into something else is one way to think about it, but what about lowering the amount of material used initially?
Priv: example of Ford and using crates that were used to carry things to make cars actually used in the production of cars

Company like recylce bank but for upcycle, to institutionalize thinking of upcycle. Sphere something. Search for \"Sandeep Ahuja\"

Look at carbon and if you can design something that can reduce this that would be beneficial

Tony; What do you think about biochar?
Priv: you sequestor carbon, then what do you with it?
Chiara T: tranform biomass in lignite (stable form of carbon) + water without drying the biomass
Priv: organosalt treatement at Harvard.... if you can justify use of biomass for this process, yes. Pyrolis is considered incomplete combustion
Syngas to energy is the lowest use of the carbon in this form...
Technilogically feesible, but economically and energy must also be considered. Apply these lenses also!

fishertrop - been around for 50 years
valero looking at coal gasification
harvest power

Priv: Recommendations: shorten the list....

Lauren: take the 80 ideas that you have, each person to come up with a three minute pitch for each...

Priv: If you look at feedstocks, what kind of conversions are you creating? You may be able to see some things that just don't make sense. Maybe pick one specifc area for each topic (only biochar for biomass for example....)

Lauren: how do you drilldown to something short-term that makes sense? Balance between short-term low-hanging fruit to help fund future ideas....

Priv: depending on your outcome, money may not be a criteria. drop the lenses that don't make sense for your focus! Even if you go door to door in villages, ultimately this is what should be considered. 

Tony: previous job, found solutions by going to experts in the field and asked them what they need or are lacking. Maybe for site visits, go on separate trips and ask around. like interviewing. Cannot come up with world-changing solution sitting in this room.

"
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Agenda:
share slides from problem space research assignment

1. Post-Consumer - Everson (See Note#3 below)
2. Food/Compost/Agriculture - Brad, Luca, Francesco
3. Paper/Wood - Tony, Bryce, Zain
4. Construction - Vincent, JC, Kidist
5. Mining/Metals - Andrew, Alison, Chiara T.
6. Chemicals (medical, plastics, and many other things) - Chiara G., Kausar, Matt, Steve
7. Radioactive - Connor

Some people need more time to finish research/slides and have more time to discuss slides.
Friday - ETIR report due.

https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/general-team-project-information/etir

ETIR strategy....

Only one person per meeting should go to other TP meetings. (Francesco, Luca, Vincent, Alison, Chiara T. - 5 people missing today).

Order of presenting will be
1 Radioactive waste/Nuclear
2 Wood/Paper
3 Chemicals
4 Food/Agri/Compost
5 Post consumer
6 construction isn't ready will present later
7 metals/mining
8 paper

1. Radioactive/Nuclear Problem Space = Connor D.

not focusing on Tritium.
plentiful U235. not much interest in recycling. big cheap find in Nigeria.
Plutonium

Major problem - red tape, policy, regulation. should avoid this highly regulated problem space.

Cool development - kelp = bioengineered kelp for uranium sequestering/leeching from sea water. harvest kelp and burn it. left with uranium resource. kelp idea is relatively scalable.

canada supplies best quality uranium 20% purity in uranium ore. Nigeria is 3%. industry ave is 3-6%.

almost all nuclear is U235 only 4% of U235 is used... 96% of the material is left over and not recycled. there maybe an opportunity to recycling U235 but there's plenty of U235 so it's not being recycled much.

plutonium is used in nuclear bombs
has the most regulartory concerns so there are probably better opportunities for us as it's regulated so much.

0.003% uranium found in kelp in sea water

Canadian uranium in ore is ~20% - industry average is 3-6%

2 Wood/Paper

Problems:
50-80% of amazon logging is illegal (people are just cutting down the trees and taking it)
10% of industry is illegal $150+ billions
80% of the worlds forest have been logged and cut down
20% are remaining; many earth species have been killed as a result

Contributes to air pollution 60% of fine particles in Mebourne Australia

Just because it's cheaper doesn't mean it's a good decision

Solutions:
Real time monitoring of logging, it's an interesting idea to know any time a tree falls

Wood pellets are made from compacted saw dust, produced with low humidity content
Locally produced wood pellets is a more sustainable solution...

Micro waves treatment of wood... university of melbourne in australia
This solution would be used instead of pesticides This solution would probably only work to eliminate bugs inititally in the wood, but bugs would likely still be able to attack the wood later.

CCA chemical is banned but is still used

Crowd-sourcing for detecting/monitor deforestation? Click yes if someone is cutting a tree down...

Bryce: US Government spent $3.2B on attempting to stop illegal logging. 

Zain: Have statistics about how many logs a company uses, \"TreeCounter.com\"?

Everson: Has friend with wood factory in Brazil. Some authorities are benefiting from the legally tree extraction. It's cheaper to just extract wood from existing trees at this point

3 Chemicals

Kausar..
2005 report solutions chemical wastes are managed
Thermal destruction 
Recyling
Chemical treatment $2.5 billion
Separation
Biological treatment
Irridation

Steve C. - Petrochemicals
recycling plastic opportunity. \x3c5% Plastic bag are recycled.
Highly regulated in terms of petrochemicals? Not sure about polymers/plastic
Difficult to separate out various polymers from each other.
Lots of waste and environmental destruction due to extraction of oil and natural gas from the earth. Need more time to fully investigate the opportunity

Chiara G. - Medical/Biological Waste
majority of this waste goes to inceration...then land fill
3 big problems
1. environmental pollution - water, land and air pollution. 
2. risk of exposure to people
3. peak capacity is quickly exceeded

Matt Kern/Kausar - Chemicals
Neighborhoods use hazardous chemicals that are ending up in landfills and eventually into groundwater
Aren't sufficient enough of decentralized waste management
some companies sell their waste stream to other companies...
so there could be heavy metal waste in the fertilizer steams such as phosphous, nitrates, etc
Iraq: US leaving 11M lbs of hazardous waste behind
multiple layers, how do you manage this waste?, hazardous/non-hazardous waste isn't correctly separated - logistics problem - oppurtunity here...

Safe chemicals act of 2010

66,000 chemicals are now needed to be studied vs the current 5 that have been...
Have to develop a dynamic model in this field because of the regulations changing

http://www.saferchemicals.org/safe-chemicals-act/

http://lautenberg.senate.gov/newsroom/record.cfm?id=323863

4 Food/Agri/Compost

Water is the main problem with agriculture... water pollution being one of the primary problems

25% of food is thrown away 

31 of the 32 million tons of food being generated each year is going to landfill

aerobic process

vs

anaerobic process

Wasterwater consist mainly of 
pathogens
nutrients
sediments

solutions and opportunities
compost gold a two pronged approach
encourage smart agricultural practices
reduce nutrient and pesticide pollution

wastewater infrastruture is lacking in many big cities wastewater is an opportunity for investments

brad there's a sugar based polymer which is biodegradable it's in the solution space.?

brian: i'm a composter...
There are several ways to approach this
It would be an interesting exercise to collect the waste, 

how are oils used in the food industry?

5 Post consumer

Emerson...

500 kilos per year x 390 million people = alot
consumer packaging is one of the primary sources and wastes
paper is used more than plastic for packaging

paper packaging is about 3 times as large in volume compared to plastic packaging.
we also have electronics waste and others...

connor

coke is pursuing possibly having soda despensed without packaging
packaging helps solve the a very real wasting problem.. packaging has a purpose

ola: if you add packaging that says \"this packaging takes away food from three african children\" may influence peoples' buying 

bryce: what if you ship concentrated coke and then at point of use add carbonated water?

chiarra g: taking as much soap as you want at the store.

Zain: edible packaging... university of minnesota
http://www.organicconsumers.org/foodsafety/packaging122004.cfm

Andrew: keep in mind, what's the scale and what's the impact? Making chip bags edible going to impact a billion people?

Everson: company's would love to have their packaging back....

Kausar: a lot of biotech companies have customers ship the packing back
Often times the packaging is actually more expensive than the contents.

Bryan: Stanford hospitals have eliminated packing and now use reusable bins

6 construction and demolition waste...

construction and demolition

35-40% of municipal solid waste stream (136 m tons in 1996)
up to 90% could be reusable or recycled

reuse the actual object not just the material, don't recreate the object from materials, just reuse the object itself such as a window

majority is demolition ~ > 50%

DEMOLISH -- done in a few days

RECYCLE --> need contractors to handle this task from a project management standpoint

RECOVER -- > how much can be recovered? generally 50% of the for new cost

DECONSTRUCTION --- takes a few weeks

Several big cities don't have any landfill space left so they send the material elsewhere

construction waste by weight:
42% wood ---> how good is the wood really?
26% drywall
15% other
11% masontry 

are companies that do this already where they basically help deconstruct the buildings and recover the materials...

andrew: this is probably less than 1% overall waste...

brick walls aren't really feasible as they mortar breaks down and you can't really transport the walls...

Luca - Energy meeting minutes.

shortage of Thorium? and Indium shortage - used for LCDs.

indium Tellurium materials for solar cells which are rare and toxic
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tellurium

less than $1/w? solar
http://www.firstsolar.com/en/index.php

7 metals/mining

8. Paper

what are the best metrics that we could use...

volume x value ?
barrier to entry
human factors...

ETIR REPORT by Friday
90% of problem space SEE 3 below --> near and long term
30% of solution space

ETIR high-level outline

1. Executive Summary 
(we suggest you write this after the rest of the report)

2. Scope of the report
A statement of the Grand Challenge and the scope of the Team Project

3. State of the Problem Space
\u2022 Short description of the entire Problem Space
\u2022 Detailed description of the aspects of the problem being addressed (different parts of the problem being examined)
\u2022 Current state of the art of technology and other solutions within the detailed problem being addressed
\u2022 Summary list of the exponential technology subject areas (a short list of what you considered, based on the SU tracks, for example)
\u2022 Definitions used to classify or label the opportunities (what 'near term' vs 'long term' means, etc)

4. Exponential Technology Opportunities Within the Detailed Problem Space
For each opportunity you choose to describe: 
\u2022 assess the current state of the technology
\u2022 identify companies, researchers, etc working in this area, with links and references
\u2022 make an estimate of the potential benefit of this technology
\u2022 estimate if this is near term or longer term, or other labels to measure the opportunity
\u2022 identify if there is a convergence (or mutual benefit) from other technologies
\u2022 identify potential barriers to the development or adoption of this technology
\u2022 identify significant bottlenecks in technology, process, law, policy, regulation, and approaches and potential solutions to these bottlenecks (this detailed assessment would be applied to opportunities you chose to highlight)

Note that some opportunities can have more detail than others

Capture all relevant references and source notes (as you find them) to aid in the examination of alternatives later

CEO of Terradex to speak on Thursday
Bryan to talk on Tuesday

-------------------------

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpupcycle-Jul12-Team-Meeting
"UPCYLCE TEAM MEETING
Monday, 7/12/2010

ETIR Report:

-first develop common language (pyramid)
-second, redefine the pyramid
-create a matrix of problems, solutions (technological, social or policy), links, companies etc
-match problems with solutions, strong, weak correlation and also note whether it's scalable to 10^9 people
-after matching, go into more detail around a few of these

7/23, v0.1, 90% of problem space, 30% of solution space
8/03, v1, 99% of problem space, 90% of solution space

The Big Picture
3.8B years for creation of life on Earth

What is life?
-fighting entropy on an energy gradient
-dependence
-evolution
-adaptation
-metabolism (waste generation relative to producer)
-recurssive loop

Group Questions:
When does waste become a problem?
Waste management problem before humans, how did evolution solve this?

Blue-Green Bacteria, story of converting O2 in atmosphere: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyanobacteria

Group Questions:
What made humans diverge to be the unique species?
-communication
-reflection of community
-empathy
-mimicry
-dexterity of hands
-tools
-meta pattern recognition
-self-awareness
-FIRE!!!!!!!
-living in eastern African planes during dry season in woodlands, there were frequent fires. Eventually cromagnons, homosapiens etc learned to harness this
-no need to spend 8hrs a day eating leaves
-more calories with each bite (of meat)
-brain uses ~20% of calories
-can't imagine human life without fire
-we developed exometabolism (cooking, pottery, metalurgy), creates toxic waste for life
-evolution can't keep up with our waste production

Efficiency
2nd law of thermodynamics, efficiency always \x3c100%
Adam Smith, efficiency related to specialization
types: time, material, energy, investment, resources
Efficiency is the measure of one thing to something else that is considered a constraint
Biomimicry: abalone (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abalone)
mother of pearl created by this sea creature at \"ambient\" conditions - low E input - takes years to build a thin layer
we can do this also really fast - requires high E input
Upcycling will likely require the input of energy - example of tree growing requires input of not only soil/water/co2, but sunlight

Palo Alto Anaerobic Waste Project (Bryan Long), power 1400 homes

VIDEO: \"The Story of Stuff\"

Waste -> excrement
Wasting -> throwing away potential value

Shorter consumption/production cycles make economies look \"healthier\" (Gross National Product)

Other measurement systems:
Gross National Health
Human Development Index

Work for next meeting: Why do you care about the waste management problem?

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpupcycle-Jun-23-Global-Grand-Challenge-links
"UPCYCLE

This pad is for additional links:

Main Etherpad
http://su-etherpad.com/tpupcycle-Jun-23-Global-Grand-Challenge

---
News:

Waste-to-Energy Could Provide Half of U.K. Renewable Energy by 2020
http://www.greenbiz.com/news/2010/05/07/waste-energy-could-provide-half-uk-renewable-energy-2020
except that...waste to energy is not renewable!
Anonymous, May 9, 2010 - 07:57
Turning mostly non renewable resources into energy does not renewable energy make!
Most of the environmental impacts of our products come from the mining and primary processing of resources. Burning those resources instead of recycling them is a waste of energy, not a net creator of it. Incineration captures only a small part of the energy embedded in products. Recycling saves much more energy than burning creates.

Organizations:

http://www.productstewardship.us/
The Product Stewardship Institute (PSI) works to reduce the health and environmental impacts of consumer products.

Wikipedia:

Kyoto Protocol 
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC or FCCC), aimed at fighting global warming
(check out the map of who has signed and who has not -- the USA)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol

Also known as Product Stewardship, Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) uses political means to hold producers liable for the costs of managing their products at end of life. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended_producer_responsibility

Upcycling
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upcycling
The first recorded use of the term upcycling was by Reiner Pilz of Pilz GmbH in an interview by Thornton Kay of Salvo in 1994[1].
We talked about the impending EU Demolition Waste Streams directive. \"Recycling, he said, \"I call it downcycling. They smash bricks, they smash everything. What we need is upcycling where old products are given more value not less.\"

Books:

Cradle to Cradle
http://www.amazon.com/Cradle-Remaking-Way-Make-Things/dp/0865475873

Blogs:

Six Creative Upcycling Projects
http://blog.sustainablog.org/six-creative-upcycling-projects/

Recycling Today
http://www.recyclingtoday.com/Article.aspx?article_id=18399

WASTE CHARACTERIZATION RESOURCES: 

Bryan Long: A question was asked during the June 23rd presentation about sources for waste characterization -- i.e., what waste is out there? Here are links to various studies and resources:

United States Waste Characterization

California: http://www.calrecycle.ca.gov/wastechar/

Wisconsin: http://www.wnrmag.com/org/aw/wm/publications/recycle/wrws-finalrpt.pdf

USA: http://www.epa.gov/osw/nonhaz/municipal/msw99.htm

International Waste Characterization

International Source Book on Environmentally Sound Technologies for Municipal Solid Waste Management http://www.unep.or.jp/Ietc/estdir/pub/msw/

Germany: http://www.lanuv.nrw.de/englisch/abfall/abfallbewert.html 

South Africa: PDF - A CASE STUDY ON ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO WASTE ...
http://warrr.org/216/1/272.pdf

Tonga: Household survey and waste characterization for Nukuhetulu, Tonga
http://www.sprep.org/att/publication/000564_IWP_PTR54.pdf

Vietnam: Solid Waste Management - Vietnam (EXCELLENT, with photos)
http://www.seas.columbia.edu/earth/wtert/sofos/Nguyen_Vietnam_Waste_management.pdf

Waste Management Studies & other publications (free)

United Nations Environment Programme, Division of Technology, Industry and Economics, Waste Management Publications
http://www.unep.or.jp/Ietc/SPC/publications.asp

Building Deconstruction & Recovery Case Studies & Resources
http://www.recyclecddebris.com/rCDd/Resources/CaseStudies.aspx

Technical Support Times online on mine waste characterization ...
http://www.epa.gov/osp/hstl/techsupp04.pdf

Studies & Papers (may require purchase)

Solid Waste Characterization and Recycling Potential for a University Campus
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VFR-4SV0SR8-4&_user=10&_coverDate=12%2F31%2F2008&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1382640495&_rerunOrigin=google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=833f511ea12e03b4db33360137beb683

Characterization of solid waste disposed at Columbia Sanitary Landfill in Missouri
http://wmr.sagepub.com/cgi/content/short/23/1/62

Landfill mining and waste characterization: a strategy for remediation of contaminated areas
http://www.springerlink.com/content/m35plgfe6p8rpkte/

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpupcycle-Jun-23-Global-Grand-Challenge
"UPCYCLE

Intro 
by Eric Dahlstrom:

Lauren Fletcher - chair
Senior systems engineer at NASA (20 years)
Worked on life support systems for space station, shuttle
Worked with Japanese and Russian programs
Running around the world - deserts, exotic places
Many fields
Focus on Latin America
9:08 am
Unacknowledged truth: stuff we throw away.
What is that global problem?
Waste is a noun.
Wasting is a verb. It is not waste until you throw it away.

Priv Bradoo - Co-Chair (also working in the water team project)
Ola Abraham - teaching fellow
brian long - advisor, knows people in local area - talk about palo alto land fill that will be full in ~2yr
http://www.cityofpaloalto.org/depts/pwd/recycle/landfill_and_composting_facility.asp
http://www.cityofpaloalto.org/depts/pwd/recycle/default.asp
[The Palo Alto community has set the goal of Zero Waste (no waste to landfills) by 2021.]

https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/tp-4-recycling/june-23-speakers

Sandra Cointreau
Waste, reduction, recycling, reprocessing, and recovery to sustainably optimize energy and material value recapture
SandraCointreau.com
Sandra's linkedin profile:http://www.linkedin.com/in/sandracointreau
Sandra's presentations: http://sandracointreau.com/engineer.htm

optimize in sustainable way a material's value
Two parts in the talk: (i) The Challenge -global waste context (ii) The Opportunity
The Challenge:

Global Context:
80% of world's people and 40% of world's livestock live in developing countries, no environmental protection incentives or regulation
Over 50% of the world's population live in cities
One third of the world's urban population lives below the poverty level of $2/day
1/3 of world's urban populations lives on \x3c$2/day (poverty level)
[recommended: http://www.wri.org/publication/the-next-4-billion]

Remember there is a huge world out there with very little money.

things we can accomplish in europe/america are not as easy as in developing world

Waste: Anything discarded (non air and non liquid)
By-products: material that can be reutilized from the source - never enters waste cycle
Governements tend to define waste as anything that is discarded (ie put out for collection).
Municipal Solid Waste (MSW): institutioinal commercial, residential, small - scale industrial wates - only about 20% of the total waste
Other wastes that require management - medical, livestock, large-scal industrial, construction/demolition debris, ashes...

Developed countries: 1.0Bb, 1.4 mm tonnes/day, 1.4kg/capita/day
Developing countries: 3.0BB, 2.4mm tonnes/day, 0.8kg capita/day
Developing countries 2.4 BB, 1.4mm tonnes/day, 0.6kg capita/day

Upper income brackets we have laws and incentives, systems, and remanufacturing waste has now decoupled and now plateued 

in developed world waste has decoupled from economic growth. billion people in developed (high income) countries so we do not have (in an absolute sense) as much waste as in middle or low income countries. 1.4 MM tonnes/day high income, 2.4 middle income 

Developing Countries - Low Income
-population 2.4 BB (~65 of city dwellers live in slums)
-MSW - 1.4 MM tonnes/day (.06kg/capita/day)

Middle and low income countries generate 5.4MM tonnes of waste per day, much higher than developed countries. The problem is that these countries dont have the money to mange the generated waste, compared to wealthier developed countries.

last year China produced more waste than USA

*Waste decoupled from economic growth, plateaued in developed countries, higher wastage rate but lower tonnage due to laws/incentives, majority of waste in low income countries
The waste is not the same around the World because people produce waste depending on how much they buy. Fifteen years ago in China a major component of waste was ash because that's o

Produced waste in relationship in relationship to how much they buy. 15 years ago in china major waste was ash, up to 40 -50% ash in sh

10 years ago - china - major component of waste was ash from heating homes

In high income countries there is a lot of packaging, a lot of which is recyclable. Therefore there is a smaller fraction of water. Developing countries have high volumes of compostable material and therefore high fraction of water.

Developing countries aren't clean (??) because they dont' have enough money, most of things they need are imported, costs are higher in developing world then in developed world, lower taxation rate

Available Local finances
In developing countries, most of the facilities and equipment needed to manage waste are imported.
The govt gets approximately only 11% of income to govt. translating to only $64/yr per person to govt to provide all services.

MSW Services
High income countries collect approx 100% of waste of which 50% are recycled and 50% are in sanitary landfills.
Developing countries middle income collection is 60%, disposal 30% and recycling 20%
Low income collection 40%, safe disposal 5%
Due to high poverty a lot of waste in developing countries is recycled and reused. People make a living from this.
Income:
Developed Countries: 34,500$/capita/year and 18% taxes
Developing Countries with middle income: 2,833$/capita/year, less texes (11%)

end result: developed countries have avg $6000 per capita to play with, developing avg $64

How are we tackling this in different countries?
Developed countries: collection 100%, landfill 50%, recycling 50%
Developing countries, low income: collection 40%, safe disposal 5%, recycling 30%

In the sixties there were only dumps in the US, no sanitary landfills

Now in developed world, 1/2 sanitary landfill, 1/2 recycling/resource recovery, 100% collection; in developing world 40 - 60% collection, safe disposal 5 - 30%, recycling resource recovery 20 - 30%, lowest income recycle more (waste pickers)
Trends:
40 years ago there was virtually no safe disposal. Streams and oceans were clogged. Now all disposal is considered safe.

Developing World Trends
Waste generation still coupled to economic growth
Recycling rates decreased in middle income countries

Incineration of materials; example: composting: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compost

Part 1 Organized:
THE CHALLENGE: The Global Waste Context
-80 percent of the world's people and 40 % of the world's livestock live in developing countries
-50% + live of people live in cities
-1/3 of world urban population lives below poverty: $2/day

Types of wastes
-Waste: Anything discarded (non air and non liquid)
-By-products: material that can be re-utilized from the source - never enters waste cycle
-Governements tend to define waste as anything that is discarded (ie put out for collection).
-Municipal Solid Waste (MSW): institutional commercial, residential, small - scale industrial wates - only about 20% of the total waste
Other wastes that require management - medical, livestock, large-scal industrial, construction/demolition debris, ashes...

MSW Contribution
-Developed countries (HIGH INCOME): 1.0Bb, 1.4 mm tonnes/day, 1.4kg/capita/day
-Developing countries (MIDDLE INCOME): 3.0BB, 2.4mm tonnes/day, 0.8kg capita/day
-Developing countries (LOW INCOME): 2.4 BB, 1.4mm tonnes/day, 0.6kg capita/day

MSW Service
-Developed countries (HIGH INCOME): collection 100%, sanitary landfill 50%, recycling 50%
-Developing countries (MIDDLE INCOME): collection 60%, sanitary landfill 30%, recycling 20%
-Developing countries (LOW INCOME): collection 40%, sanitary landfill 5%, recycling 30%
*low income countries recycle because they have to

Trends
-40 years ago there was virtually no safe disposal. Streams and oceans were clogged. Now all disposal is considered safe.

Meeting the Challenge (The Opportunity):
Hoping to inspire us to have a balanced life: quiet our thoughts, not be analytical, be in the moment.
Policies define our dreams; regulations set minimum standards [one might add, they frame what counts as a problem, and what counts as something we feel we simply have to put up with]

Part 2: Opportunities for Change
Economic Instruments:
- deposit refunds
- procurement preferences - 'governments can proclaim how much recycled content the material they buy must have'
- llandfill, incineration, fuel taxes, etc. - use taxes to clean up dump sites
- polluter watch lists
- waste wise recognition lists
- tax concessions for resource recovery
- favorable renewable energy grid pricing
- emission trade-off arrangements
Example: companies can trade their emissions with companies that may need those emissions.
- polluter pays tariffs
- regional or global protocals
Carbon finance has been one of the most positve global protocols for the solid waste energy. www.carbonfinance.org
Carbon finance is now a global instrument
- subsidy reductions on raw material

Levelling the playing field (i.e., economic instruments very strong in Europe) not present in developing world
Economic instruments are tools that incentivize waste generators to do things that they wouldn't normally do, in order to meet the laws. Examples of economic instruments: deposit refunds, procurement preferences, landfill-incineration-fuel taxes, polluter watch lists, waste wise recognition lists, tax concessions for resource recovery, favorable renewable energy grid pricing, emission trade-off arrangements (companies can trade their emissions to ones that aren't producing any), polluter pays tariffs, regional or global protocols (carbon finance has been one of the most positive global protocols for solid waste), subsidy reductions on raw materials

carbon credits - in certain areas of air pollution - companies can trade emmisions - one company has traded emmisions for garbage trucks

carbonfinance.org - motivating countries all over te world to build landfills and capture the gas
What is Carbon Finance?: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_finance

subsidy reduction on raw materials - 
Regulations: 
-emissions from waste retreatment systems
-deconstruction versus demolition - taking a building apart to recycle pieces rather than smashing it all to bits
- remanufacturing versus disposal
- source segregation of recyclables
- product stewardship (take back systems)
- bans on certain materials or products
- liability laws
- performance disclosure
-trade-off arrangements

shifting from production to services
Opportunities for Change
Eco-design: incrase usefl life change or reduce materials, facilitate remanufacturing
Shift from production to services economies
Technical innovation in waste processing
Technical innovation in markets for recyclables
Shift from production to services economioes
Waste a major issue between the Israelis and Palestinians - ground water is in West Bank, hazardous waste in the west bank makes Israel reluctant to relinquish the WB. as part of peace process, Israel moves from agricultural to service economy, recycles groundwater
Technical Innovation in waste processing
Technical innovation in markets for recyclables

Manifesting your Vision
Awareness
Visioning
Deliberate intention
Focus on positive
Expect and allow it to Evolve & it will happen

Israeli Waste water treatment:
http://www.israel21c.org/environment/israel-leading-the-way-in-wastewater-treatment-techniques
\"Israel reuses its water at 70 percent, the highest in the world.\"
Israel has the most advanced water policies in the World today

Doctor Marian Chertow, Yale University 
Upcycling, Waste, and Industrial Ecology

Academic profile: http://mba.yale.edu/faculty/profiles/chertow.shtml
Linkedin: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marian_Chertow
Manage waste versus letting things become waste
Asks question: Why should we let things become waste? 

Tennessee 500M gallons(?) of coal ash spilled after retaining wall broke. Further pictures online: http://tinyurl.com/t-coal-waste
Why did we just put it in a pile in the ground in the first place? Is that the best way to do this? Of Course not. 

Lets Protect human health and recovering bio materials. 

Generation of waste:
Manufacturing creates 6B metric tons of waste
Mining: 1.7
Oil/Gas: 1.2
Ag: .8

Manufacturing, mining, oil and gas, agriculture primary waste producers

2500 litres of water required to make 0.5kg of cheese.
Mfgr PC: 11x fossil fuel required than that weight of PC
Jet Engine: T, Pratt/Whitney - ore to make metal, 1M lb.....
Ore to metal 10:1; Metal to engine 10:1 -> Ore to engine 100:1
Virtual water - water being imported to countries in food, in products etcc

industrial ecology: study of the flows of materials and energy in industrial and consumer activities, of the effects of these flows on the environment, and of the influences of economic, political, regulatory and social factors on the flow, use and transformation of resources
https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Industrial_ecology

don't want to throw something away because youare not only disposing of materials, but also the water used to mfgr it

Design for Environment (DFE) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Design_for_Environment

MFA Taizhou Chiho-Tiande Metals in 2006:
250K tons of scrap electric motors -> 2% solid residues to be disposed of and the following was recovered for reuse:
150K tons of steel scrap
45K tons copper scrap
20K scrap silicon
30K tons aluminum
http://www.china.org.cn/english/China/98308.htm
(China example: '1,500 workers recycle usable materials from 200,000 tons of waste annually')

Integrated Waste Management
Waste reduction, reuse, recycling, recovery (composting and digestion), landfill disposal and incineration

think of inputs and outputs at each stage and then you will really know if the process is green or not - extension of producer reliability

Honolulu: one land fll:
UPSTREAM:
13.7 tons coming in -> imports - exports + production (16.6M - 6.7M + 3.7M tons)

DOWNSTREAM:
exports of recyclables off-island: 242K tons
on-island recylcing: 441K tons
landfill and waste to energy: 1.1M tons
total recycling, composting, and waste generation 1.8M tons

7.6% waste from consumption
Systems Approach
Upstream (imports minus exports, local production) versus downstream (exports recyclables off-site, etc.,)

Biological systems are very efficient recyclers. 

Circular processes that are closed systems vs linear processes that start in raw materials and end in waste

See BIOMIMICRY - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomimicry

Humans may not be able to get there.
We need to think of very advanced ways to get there due to materials.
[Marian's paper on Kalundberg: http://bit.ly/bOrUO6]

Question: Example of an industry using closed model systems?
Kalundborg, Denmark: 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalundborg
http://www.indigodev.com/Kal.html
Similar image:http://newcity.ca/Media/Kalundborg.gif
Kalundborg is an example of an industrial ecosystem. Symbiotic relationships between companies.
cooperation is contagious

self-organized, private partnerships

Other examples:
UK: NISP (national industrial symbiosis programme)
Korean National EIP Plan
Styria, Austria
Montfort Boys Town, Fiji

TOM KACANDES

(biography is on https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/tp-4-recycling/june-23-speakers)

Filters for Analyzing Opportunities
Energy: embodies, transport, process (net consumed or generated)
Land use
WAter (used and/or, contaminated and made useless)

some of the biggest material consumers is IT

Energy and materials are always intertwined.

hydro = aluminum = aircraft = victory : WWII slogan/equation (that's why boeing is in washington)

NY State waste exported: 14M tons consumes 3M gal of diesel per day (?)

Interesting statistics: http://www.zerowasteamerica.org/Statistics.htm
http://www.epa.gov/osw/nonhaz/municipal/msw99.htm
Waste Management Practices, 1960-2005
(as a percent of generation)
Recycled/Composted
1960 6.4%
1970 6.6%
1980 9.6%
1990 16.2%
1995 26%
2000 30%
2005 32%

Solar Panels: Energy involved with manufacturing

Tom's Solar Panels: http://www.prismsolar.com/

If your process makes water contaminated, this is bad.... ellaborate....

Virtual water concept: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_water

Craig's list: tremendous increase in recycling/reusing
(www.freecycle.org/)

Started company to recycle dry wall

Filters for Analyzing Opportunities
Waste: in original use, spoiled in transport/damaged in handling, failed packaging, wrong item, not used or useful; contaminates other material, creating waste, waste byproduct from reuse or recycling, both separate useful from not useful (waste)

Toxicity
\"if you use any toxic materials in your products you are part of the problem\"
Toxics (ex., pesticides, cleaners, cadmium, etc.) very persistent, negative effect of industrialization
CFL: compact fluorescent lightbulbs
Wallboard + organics in LF = hydrogen sulfide and SOx
Mercury (Hg) + LF = dimethyl & methyl mercury over 100x more toxic than elemental Hg from power plants
Landfills make Hg more toxic....

Complicates Reuse (insurance /potential liability to new user) and Recycling (cost/energy to separate) (cost to handle by-product made toxic)

Legislation and Regulation
- their best reocrd is in toxic reduction and elimination
toxics in printing inks banned
same with batteries taht containg Hg

Bottle Bills: 

Use existing things rather than try to create something from nothing e.g. Markets

try to make a market for ... boogers? this would be challenging. (he said this pejoratively)

Island mentality is the right kind when looking at the problem

1800 landfills (some mega landfills) in the USA.
A more efficient approach: separate everything you can, compost food waste at home, reduce commonly wasted items, separate toxic items, seperate non biological (concrete, metal), use remaining biomass to create feedstock

TaylorBiomass - http://www.taylorbiomassenergy.com/

IDEAS:
Solar Powered Composting Toilet
Cemetery which removes toxics from bodies
Greenhouse to consume compost and make food
If you have had chemotherapy, you're toxic waste...
compost ourselves after we remove toxins --> to make more food

Appendix:
12 Principles of Green Chemistry: http://www.epa.gov/gcc/pubs/principles.html

Liddy Karter (email: lk@industrialsymbiosispartners.com, Tel: (203) 376-7958)
Industrial Symbiosis Partners, LP
http://industrialsymbiosiscapital.com/index.html
http://www.kartercapital.com/

INVENTSTING AND INCENTIVISING RECYCLE PROJECTS TO IMPROVE THE LIVES OF 1B PEOPLE (strictly confidential)
NOTE: THIS IS A CONFIDENTIAL PRESENTATION, Please no blogging details or sharing of the PPT. 
A presentation by Industrial Symbiosis Partners, LP 

tortured by policy.. etc (other problems)
\"manufacturing is where it's at\"
private equity fund, focus on how to reuse waste energy, water, materials
bigger opportunity than telecom, etc --> commercially powerful

think about opportunities not problems

Environmental Investment Sources
Start with friends/family, grants, move to preferred 
Same players with one big exception, the government really wants us

100Billion Dollars Available from DOE (department of energy) http://www.eere.energy.gov/
31Billion tax incentives

Don't just think about what you don't see, but a really big problem. If you can't finance the problem, it won't happen. 
Want to see a real economic value. 
You must improve by 50% or people won't adopt it. 
Think about great marketing (note: I can help with this!) 
Create a product that is so good that the market DEMANDS for it.
Putting a company in this space is drop dead easy.
\"If you can't finance a project, it probably won't have the scale to reach a billion people\"...

US is the capital of waste (best waste, most waste)

Investable criteria:
Rev potential more than 1b
.5 reduction in costs over existing sols
market demand, pull not push
limited technology and regulatory risk
Impacting a billion people ... not so much

Dont build a company around the regulatory objectives, it has to be built around the economics. regulatory objectives will change and the company will fail. Create a market demand so your product is pulled into the market, and you dont have to push it into the market. Make it easy for customer to adopt your technology.
(remember solar in Spain)

Where she sees opportunities:

- Food processing and agricultural waste to energy
- Power gen waste energy and other coal combustion byproducts
- Hydrocarbon and biomass waste products
- Largest of all, wastewater treatment and energy production

Divert things from the waste water streams is a good area to work in. 

MAGIC HAT BREWERY EXAMPLE
Brewery Waste Anaerobic Digester
Proprietary technology in $1B+ Market
Biogas produced > fuel demand for brewery 
Proven technology plant under construction
25%+ IRR for equity holders
Carbon beneficial
Everbody loves beer
wanted to expand but area said that they cannot because they didn't have enough capacity for their waste water
technologist from MIT figured out anibolic digestion for breweries - how to make enough power from waste streams to power entire brewery and eliminate waste water
methane created and runs the brewery
cost of production reduced 20%

Sludge to Biogas
- can eliminate 95% of sludge ad turn it into energy
- proven tech

Industrial waste - hint 
When your looking for solutions, innovation is out there. There is so much innovation out there that weeding through it is the problem. The small companies are out there and struggling to get noticed and funded in this environment. HINT: look for what is already out there.

Industrial energy and power plants are not always open to innovation.
For every 100 units of energy into a power plant, 70% is wasted. Most of it is heat out of the stack. Solve power generation problem (convert waste heat to electricity), and downstream issues will be improved in terms of economics.

Summary
Disrupt an industry - mainly in terms of cost
Focus on discrete, large oppurtunites - its easy to get diffused and difficult to find financial success when not optimised. Focus on a solution for example an induustry and it will be easy to get this adopted rapidly across the industry.
Not Best Technology... Best Known Technology
Disrupt an Industry
Focus on discrete, large opportunities.
Not best technology...best known technology
Strong underlying business model
Great team

Great marketing trumps great technology every time
Not best technology but best known technology

Liddy Karter lk@industrialsymbiosispartners.com
203-376-7958

Panel Q&A
11:20
This is a very complex space.
Part of the problem is defining the problem as they see it.
Distinctly different in every location.
One country decided replacing buildings every 15 years was good for economy, but filled landfills with construction materials.

We're looking at materials. Nothing is really waste until you start wasting it.
How is the best way to frame that thought?

Energy use is valuable.
Way to avoid material become waste.
Kraft and others used to throw away stuff.
No one wants Cherrios to have metal shavings.
If one is detected, they throw away a tractor trailer load of Cheerios on either side of that production.
What are the economics that cause people to treat material as waste.
Time
Space
We rely on waste systems to keep from having things get clogged up.
More thorough application of IT allows for better treatment of waste streams.
[OK, so there is room for AI, sensor technolgies here ...]

You've seen a lot of projects in US. We have 80 students from 35 countries. Many don't have technology - either proprietary or patented. How to push to where there is need, but no access?

When I wrote 1 billion people, word processor put a $ in front.
Hard in US.
Harder where the waste stream is not as valuable.
Triple value of rice production.
Happens all over the world. US is biggest.
Waste coming off is key.
Found group that has lots of rice production elsewhere -> funding.
That family will invest in that technology.
Rice production and price of rice could drop by 1/3. That is huge.
A lot of innovation starts in US and spreads.

Innovation can spread. Make sure you get capital behind it.

Talked about recycling money and budgets. Here is a company spending money getting rid of waste. That money is available as investment in governments. First place to look for money -- where is it being spent getting rid of waste -- money is already there.

We just published piece about India. Looked at Industrial Park. Karnaka (?)
100% of material leaving those companies -> 99% was being reused/recycled at least once.
Lots of reasons: poor country, resources more precious. This is economic necessity.
How can rest of world go the way of India.
Twice as much waste per capita in China as in India.
India has tremendous amount of reuse.
Who can use the waste oil, material from sugar cane company. Most impressive.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2010.04.007

Q: Accelerating exponential technologies. What are realities of technology adoption?
Example of latrine. Something they have been doing for 1000 years. How do you get them to refocus?

Sandra: It all comes down to political will.
Looked at clean city and dirty city and why. In each case, came down to political will. This is not about technology. Technology can help.
30 years ago in Andes. Bit later with first satellite TV. People watching Dallas. Remote places watching TV. Internet, availability changing everything.
I love Google. A day does not go by. 
Front end stuff is important.
Money
Industry are international.
*** Corporations are controling the world right now.
Bankers are global.
Good ideas that start in one place get adopted elsewhere.
Harmonizing the laws is important to leveling the playing field.
Maybe we need global re

Abu Dhabi- has decided to become a green city. Then things change.
Various cities joining this pathway. Singapore - an eco-city. Cities in China.
When you start to get a movement going then you can make some change locally.

One of very few panels where the women outweigh the men.
Do women have more concerns about trash then men?

Challenge is Opportunity spelled backward.
Focus on converting industrial waste gases into high value industrial chemicals. 
Speaking on the challenges front. First challenge is political issue.
It was amazing, there was political will. 
Go to countries which want to make things happen.
China produces 40% of world's steel. Convert flue gases to chemicals.
Second challenge: convincing the industries that this is good thing.
We'll produce fuel and chemicals with multiples of the value of your other products. 
Should have been \"wow\"
Said, \"we are going to mitigate your __ problem\" REPHRASE
Doors opened.

Jan 1 2009. Circular Economy Promotion Law . Not throwing away, but reusing everything.
Japan has a rule. German's law. Based on waste.
Wonderful model for the world.
http://www.fdi.gov.cn/pub/FDI_EN/Laws/GeneralLawsandRegulations/BasicLaws/P020080919377641716849.pdf

Please keep questions to the point.

Q: Kausar/India/US: Discuss issue of the rates of consumption with respect to waste generation. Thank you for mentioning circular economy. How do we incorporate sustainable practices/circular economy into the business models of solutions we develop?

A: Liddy: vague response. Tom K.: our society relates consumption with wealth. look for ideas that address/change this relationship as part of the business model.

Q: Brad from US: Do symbiotic industries ever have a massive failure because of a single failure in one company?

Marian: All supply chains have potential failures that must be built into the business model.
Evidence has shown however that there is a lot of resilience.
.
Liddy: insurance. handle it financially.

Q: Sasha from Canada: to what extent do you think that waste and waste mgmt has a mkt and perception problem? How is this different in the developing world?
11:46

A: Problems are extremely complicated. Dealing with every part of living and industrial system. Can only work when people try to make it better. I can build a power plant and I don't have to deal with a single one of you. To manage your waste, I need you all to cooperate. I need everybody to participate. Not only is it complicated, but there is an enormous social inclusion to waste management.
Yeah, it has perception problems. Just send out trucks and cleaners. Waste people are not put at an elevation in terms of technical expertise. Not taught in Universities. Professionals not recognized. May not draw the best people.
When we talked about consumption earlier: all about awareness. Technology making us more aware. People in Afganistan, Uzbekistan. Watching same TV shows you are.
Grassroots movement to change is really really happening because of [commications] technology.

Q: ????? 
A: Question was how much is perception or things that can be addressed.
India viewpoint. Recycling is inherent in their mentality, but trash is \"somebody else's problem\" Down the value chain of what it is worth.
Concept of upcycle - not trash, just material.

Q: 
Look up Garbage Barge (http://www.jconoverjr.com/g-barge.htm)

Supposed to go to South Carolina.
They didn't want NYC waste.
Barge started wandering.
Caribbean didn't want it either.

Look up Garbage Barge.
Look up Pete Seeger.
Sung song as opening credits.
Great song.
Like anything else, only guy on TV was Fred Sanford. https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Sanford_and_Son
Metals recycler. Multimillionaires.
Very wealthy from managing waste.

Q: Dmitry. Composting not implemented on large scale. Social, not restaurant scale.
Say, a University campus.

A: Composting can be done on many scales. Not that it is not happening, but underperforming. Main problem is contamination.
Biodegradable plastic? If wrapper from Saltines, then I care.
I heard this group nearby, presentations weren't that specific.
How do you make contamination - avoid in systems, esp in developing world.
Composting could be 50-60% of the solution.

Sandra: 8 italians - leaders in the world in composting
Really effective at it.
Main problem in developing world has been the cost of making the compost is more than people are willing to pay.
People not aware that animal manure is not clean. [OK ...]
Extremely contaminated and toxic. 
70% of Chickens fed arsenic everyday.
Pharma going into livestock feed.
Made to be persistent. 80% excreted unchanged into the waste.

Q: Out of the box concept of waste. Information waste? Recycling human attention. Captcha. 
For track chair, how focused on material waste?

A: Lauren: When you look at all the global grand challenges. Address PART of problem space. Frankly we are not dealing with industrial sludge. Different opportunities. Human waste opportunites. This summer JUST solid waste management. Future summers, may look at something else. 
Consider broader problem spaces.

A: Brilliant. I like that image that if I go to Amazon.com they tell me all the things I should like because they have my history. Is there a way in my consumerism, without going to 1984 Big Brother-ism, some identification that we have some flags come up when we waste things in a certain way. I love the way of these little reminders coming up.

A: One flag for me was SHAME. Indonesia made law to make pollutors public. We'll tell you your color rating: Gold to Black. You have 90 days to clean up, or we tell the world. A different mechanism.

Your point is excellent. Part of presentation was recycling what is existing. Wrap it back into a material waste - evidence of missed opportunity to make things more efficient.
If filters don't cause problems, go for it. We think of IT as magic. IT is consuming massive resources - computing power uses material too: data centers. Phenomenal heat. 42kW 15-20kW right now.
Massive electricity use.
Optimize storage of crap we don't use. Clean out my hard drive.

Q: Sam/Australia. What type of waste is biggest concern?

A Sandra:: **Livestock manure.
Whole world is growing richer, they all want meat.
China - beef/chicken/pork/fish - all largest producer.
Stuff going on crops, crops come back to us. Kids get autoimmune diseases. Animal waste is the problem.

A Marian: Geopolitical waste. Causing conflict.
Lot of attention on rare earth metals. Good example.
Big opportunity in making standard power plants more efficient.

A: Electronics and toxicity. Once toxic, hard to clean. Won't pick up LCD - contains lead, mercury.
**Wished more bioengineering could displace heavy metals. Insidious. Net result is to take really toxic stuff and spread it all over.

A: Best OPPORTUNITIES. So many problems, pick one you can accomplish. Focus on **food waste: highly achievable. Reuse bio-waste, for instance. All kinds from animal waste, to baby food. More waste here than entire world's energy consumption.
If we can solve this, a lot of other problems go away.

A: Industrial waste. Some incentivized. Convince them and they'll be happy to work with you.

Lauren: One last question. Eric?

Q: Hi. Eric E/Italy. Even more optimistic than Peter and Ray. We never really designed system we have today. Now we see side effects. Wonderful technologies. Last 2-3 years raised awareness. In people and corporations. WalMart commited to zero waste. Going to 63,000 suppliers. Nike going same way.
Upcycle is topic here. Downstream part. What about going to source, cooperate with top levels of organizations. Now ready to do this job. Looking for leverage at that point, rather than boring waste collection.

A: Garbage is really sexy. Sorry you don't see that. Corporate Sustainability Officers are talking about carbon. Lots of cos have CSO. Most have no idea what they are doing. Going to CSO to get to CFO. Create durable value to society. Can bring upcycle forward.

A: What is front of 

Q: (withou

More Links
World's top rice producers:http://www.mapsofworld.com/world-top-ten/countries-with-most-rice-producing-countries.html
Forum For the Future:http://www.forumforthefuture.org/
Composting:http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88163285
Waste To enetrgy (Incineration) : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waste-to-energy
Energy Recycling:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_recycling

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpwater-Aug-7-Mapping-Team
"
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Decision-Making
I agree
I don't agree - suggest an alternative on what to do
I don't know, need more time

Listen to each other
Have to do things

Different flow of information: Aquality mailing list

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpwater-Aug-5-FR
"
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Ethics and Water and Development

Frank Rijsberman
Director Program, google.org

Does the water crisis affect you?
Two thirds of world pouplation will suffer from water scarcityin 2024
Future wars in Middle East will be fought over water
Water the blue gold. Water the new oil.

Deaths diarrheal diseases

MDG

Photo: improved access to water, public standpipes, latrines, and handwashing

Water scarcity generally in arid areas (Egypt water scarce), generally refers to not enough water for growing food

Minimum 2 -5 L /day for drinking, 25 - 50 bathing/cooking, 
US 400 L/d
Europe 200 L/d
Food 70x more water needed to grow food than for drinking

Global hydrological cycle
15% rainfall agriculture 
6% irrigation

Domestic use water inclusive term

Falkenmark Indicator: water scarcity in 2030
Physical (not enough water) versus economic scarcity (no infrastructure to make water available to people)

Environmental Water Stress
Different map than water scarcity (Middle East, northern of Africa, Australia, California)

JMP
Only measurement of water access and sanitation
Looks at water infrastrucuture (pipe) doesn't show if actually getting water
National level statistics
Water aid: water point mapping
Google: improve monitoring of water points at finer scale through surveys H2.0 (Kenya, Tanzania), less than 3 hours or 10% income to buy water, uses google fusion tables and googlemaps, planning to launch at World Water Week next month
*need to have frequently updated map of services provided = better indicator of performance of water actors 
Water for people: Android phones, open source, SMS-based and mobile phone based monitoring of water services (Ned Breslin)
*Difficult to get data, provide incentives for crowd-sourced data, easy to think of map!

Human Sensor Web: public tap has number, public campaign tell public to send SMS if tap is out, consumers have transparency, service providers are accountable, essentially a automated complaint system (good incentive)

Water Report Cards on people's perception of water services if no lap tops or telephones

Water Problems:
Environmental stress
No access to clean water
Inadequate water for agriculture

Water service provisions should be decentralized (government failing miserably in multiple places), privatized water services failed, emphasize local businesses with opportunity with government regulation to provide smaller scale (water kiosks in Phillipines, UV filtration and reverse osmosis brought price of water treatment plant to few hundred dollars, poor person's bottled water)

Water Health International: promote small scale water treatment plants at community level, private company

Future Solutions Needed:
Through nanotechnology could reduce cost of treatment, nanofiltration targeted at specific types of pollution, need to reduce energy costs, desalination 0.5 - 1 dollar/cubic meter (80% of costs is energy)
Cheap water quality tests (no data on water quality, very few water quality tests, Bristol Aquatest funded by Gates Foundation, Univeristy of Capetown mobile upload of water quality test)
No data on Africa and Asia
Large geoinformation platforms at river basin level to close the water balance (evapotranspiration, ground water uptake) through satellite imagery and atmospheric data
*Mobile Health interesting gadets for healthcare workers for data collection*

Google Nairobi
Helping program H2.0 platform using google fusion tables and google maps/earth 

Disaster Response at Google
Earthquake in Haiti, Google called suppliers for satellites to task, distributed to organizations
Clouds, rainfall, floods, tough to get good imagery in moonsoon season in Pakistan, use Radar or microwave satellites for analysis
Google Earth/Maps use only visual imagery
Google.org, can have large image archives of remote sensing (Landsat) imagery not flat data -> preprocessing available, API, run apps on top of it in cloud on supercomputers, looking at land use and deforestation change and water (evapotranspiration, pixel-based calculations can do better than anyone due to massive parallellization, difficult to do floods)

Ideally want user and crowdsourced data, survey percentage return disappointing, best data from users directly linked to user behaviour (people have incentive to put in straightforward, simple, data corrections in Google translation), more complex info has to be put in survey form, incentive contests or paying users not sustainable 

Cellphone in pocket = human sensor, telemedicine heatlh data, no large automated systems, automated vs. gathered through more social networks, market inevitably coming
Birdwatching community - online, data gathering, active social community, shares and collaborates on data through interest or better sensors

Social networks: Peer Water Network, not easy to navigate, been around for a few years, 
Water portal spreading best practices, automated semi-community, expert knowledge base on best solutions, none have worked to degree, emerging technologies 
Most are too complicated, need to have person in bar get it in 20 seconds, assume most people have higher attention span

Problems in fluoride and arsenic in Bangladesh water looked clean, pollution problems hard to detect

Water supply, sanitation, hygiene (washing hands, don't recontaminate water - PUBLIC EDUCATION) 

Recommends 2 or 3 names / experts 
Mapping: Water for People (Ned Breslin) developed technologically advanced projects in field
Peter Glick Pacific Institute on resource issues, building portals
Mina ?
Stanford
Graham Alabaster
Water Aid based in UK, GIS Vincent Casi

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpwater-SynBio-ProjProposal
"

August 5 2010
Due Today @ 6:00pm

One page per group of your proposed approach and development which could look like this:

1/ Overview of your specific problem area

*location of contaminated water is unknown, not well documented and/or not well characterized
*technology that is used to detect contaminants is limited/expensive
*technology that is used to treat contaminated water is limited/expensive
*technologies are not part of an economicall sustainable model

2/ Market / Target overview (who are you trying to help specifically? How many people? How big is the market / opportunity in US Dollars?) 

3/ Proposed solution including a technical overview Justin Valentina
Biosensors

Filtration systems

4/ Development plan for the solution (1, 5, 10+ year high level plan)
Umbrella Syn Bio Water solutions company
1) Identification of contaminated water
2) Treatment of contaminated water

5/ Other pertinent information

6/ Team members and schedule till the end of the GSP 10 progra

Candice
Claudia
Emma
Justin
Michael
Valentina
Sasha
Sharon
- Shall we add focus areas for every person? Or is this too early? I don;t really think we've established them yet - not something that we really want to rush in a few hours I'd imagine? Working titles? Ok, forget about ut. 

Berkely - microscopes on phones
telepresence plats to compile health data
humanitarian inst - use cell phone network - for weather

Bio Enabled Water Solutions 
1. Overview of specific problem area
Water pollution is a significant problem within a global context, and one of the leading worldwide causes of disease and death. There are two key aspects related to mitigating and managing contaminated water: detection and remediation. The application of biologically based solutions has been predominant in wastewater treatment, and has become increasingly pertinent with the development of synthetic biology as a refinement of traditional biotechnological processes. This emerging discipline enables increased complexity and control over biological systems, facilitating a nearly limitless repertoire of useful biological tools. With respect to the core issues outlined above, biological devices can be bifurcated into non-genetically modified organisms (non-GMO) and genetically modified organisms (GMO) sub-categories. 
2. Market / Target overview (who are you trying to help specifically? How many people? How big is the market / opportunity in US Dollars?)

3/ Proposed solution including a technical overview
Overall Work Field/Solutions Justin

The advantage of using biological systems is twofold: scale and sensitivity. There organisms have tremendous specificity at minute concentrations. As outlined above, the application of both non-GMO and GMO organisms will be explored within the fields of sensors/detection as well as treatment/remediation of treated water. 

Specifically, the development of biosensors that require less time to analyse samples, and detect several potential contaminants per run will be investigated. A preliminary list of contaminants include metals such as copper, lead, mercury, cadmium, arsenic, and gallium as well as various harmful organics and agricultural contaminants such as nitrates. The biosensors will be extremely easy to use, as the signal outputs will likely consist of color changes.

A second technology our team aims to investigate is the use of biologicals for the treatment/remediation of water sources. Various organisms are currently being researched for their ability to physically remove or chemically alter contaminants.Biotechnology has the potential to contribute to long-term quality and availability of water resources enabling increased water reuse and preventing waste water pollution.

(Sources of information include primary journals as well as open source data provided by the international genetically engineered machines competition.)

4/ Development plan for the solution (1, 5, 10+ year high level plan) Sharon
Our plan is to establish a company which mission is to leverage both non-GMO and GMO organisms to supply clean water all over the world.
Based on an initial analysis the group has decided to initially focus on biosensors for both the developed and the developing world as this technology is available to the group at the offset. In parallel we will unfold the technology needed to treat water to integrate this in our products as the technology becomes available.
Below is a representation of our over all plan for the business.

5/ Other pertinent information

6/ Team members and schedule till the end of the GSP 10 program
Team members
Candice \u2013 Focus on biosensors
Claudia \u2013 Focus on biotreatment
Justin \u2013 Focus on biotreatment
Michael \u2013 Focus on business
Sasha \u2013 Focus on business
Sharon \u2013 biotreatment
Valentina - Biotreatment and sensor
Emma - Focus on biotreatment and sensors
Process for the Work
1. Week one: technological/market analysis and selection of the solution
2. Week two: expand upon week one\u2019s results in greater detail and design solution 
3. Week three: continued design of solution plus supporting business/organizational setup
4. Week four: final presentation
Deliverables
Description of the solution in terms of:
\u00b7 Initial brainstorm and project selection:
- Documentation of ideas
- Evaluation of ideas
\u00b7 Technology description including:
- Definition of technology
- Current state of the art
- Development trajectory of technology
\u00b7 Business plan including:
- Cost/Benefit analysis
- Technology/technologies
- Geographic
- Plan

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpwater-WATER-synbioiGEM-Aug2
"Team Water - Bio Based Solutions - iGEM

Team: British Columbia/Project 2009
Traffic light sensor with fluorescence
Depending on the concentration of a particular substrate in the medium, E. coli will respond accordingly by producing different coloured fluorescence proteins.
Variable s Arabinose sensor: the pBAD promoter
We designed two variants of the BBa_I13453 pBAD promoter, one weaker and one stronger than wild type.
The traffic light requires a component that switches off a light that was previously turned on. To date, the registry does not have a method to easily turn off genes independently from a forward promoter (e.g. inducible and repressible promoters) or biological chassis (e.g. Dicer). We designed a modular, endogenous method of repression using a reverse antisense promoter. Our proof-of-concept jammer BBa_K206010 uses pBAD in the reverse direction along with various terminators to knockdown GFP expression.

****Regulatory Network****

Team: IvyTech-South Bend 2010 (related to british columbia 2009)
Monitoring water quality is complicated by the fact that the test for presence and quantity of coliform bacteria requires a 2 days of incubation for results. For swimmers and other beach enthusiasts a rapid quantitative water test would be desirable. The Ivy Tech-South Bend team, new to IGEM, is planning to building an IGEM from registry parts. In particular we hope to marry the \u201cstop light\u201d device developed by the British Columbia team in 2009 with a circuit built from registry elements that can be used to detect bacterial quorum sensing proteins. Our device will ideally detect the presence and relative concentration of quorum sensing proteins in suspect waters thus indirectly measuring the extent of contamination and therefore safety.
No other specification.

****Bacterial Quorum Sensing System****

Team: Tec de Monterrey 2010 (related to Brit Columbia 2009)
In our initial research we realized that the iGEM British Columbia 2009 team decided to do something similar, so we used parts of their project as a base and integrated parts of other previous iGEM projects in order to propose a new genetic construction capable of detecting different amounts of a certain substance. We call these new types of sensors, \u201cintelligent biosensors\u201d, because they have the ability to react in different ways depending on their surroundings. In the process we plan to develop BioBricks for two new families of phage activators as well as different BioBrick constructons that can make our system easy to adapt, so that the creation of these \u201cintelligent biosensors\u201d becomes just a matter of choosing the substance of interest and choosing the different reporters.

****Regulatory Network****

Team: Korea U Seoul 2009/2010
Complement iGEM 2009 project topic
Our team project is designing synthetic modules for simultaneous detection of multiple heavy metals such as arsenic, zinc, and cadmium in E. coli. The ultimate goal is to build a micromachine sensing and determining of the concentration of heavy metals in a sample solution (e.g. the waste water). In order to design the system, we will employ two fluorescence proteins (GFP and RFP) and aryl acylamidase as signal reporters. Since each heavy metal promoter produces unique fluorescence or color by those reporters, if more than two heavy metals coexist in a solution, the results would be interpreted from the convoluted fluorescence and/or color rather than a single signal detection. The successful construction of the synthetic modules in E. coli can be utilized in the form of a lyophilized powder, which can be stored in a drug capsule to make it portable.
Problems with iGEM 2009 project topic: When registering part, Not done in designated way but in our own way. As the purpose of iGEM is to STANDARDIZE data, it was considered violating diciplines, winning no medal. (The restriction site should have been eliminated)

Complement: Partization, cloning in \"iGEM way\" - Make former result a capsule as a complete product. (Former presentation shows that we can check if the water is contaminated with heavy metal with Tylenol and E. coli) Since it is already shown that the circuit works, we can develop the result. We can put the tools in a capsule and provide the capsules to developing countries to check if their water is contaminated.
****Searching for Arsenic, zinc, cadmium****

Team:Sheffield 2010 (related to Cambridge 2009)
Project Description
The aim of our project is to create a bacterium that can detect the presence of vibrio cholerae in water. Some bacteria use quorum-sensing. They produce and release autoinducers; signal molecules which vary in concentration as a function of cell density. When a minimal threshold of autoinducer molecules is detected, gene expression is altered. This provides a mechanism for coordinated behaviour within bacterial populations. The detection of autoinducers involves a histidine kinase in the membrane which detects the signal and autophosporylates on a His residue. A phosphate is then transferred to an aspartate residue of a response regulator which relays the signal. We aim to create a fusion protein in E.coli capable of detecting the presence of CAI-1 (cholera autoinducer). This requires fusion of two related receptors with similar topography. The signal is then transmitted down its native pathway. We have chosen 2 similar receptors to create our fusion protein; BarA and CqsS. BarA is a sensory histidine kinase present in the membrane of E.coli. CqsS is a sensory histidine kinase from vibrio cholerae which detects CAI-1. We aim to fuse the N-terminal (receptor) domain of the CqsS (which detects CAI-1 and autophosphorylates) with the C-terminal (transmitter) domain of BarA (which accepts a phosphate and relays the signal downstream. We will then insert the recombined BarA gene into a high copy plasmid. An alternative is to transform the whole CqsS pathway into E.coli. Phosphorylation of the BarA/CqsS causes the phosphorylation of the response regulator UvrY, which then binds to DNA causing transcription of CsrB (a small regulatory RNA). CsrB inhibits CsrA which, in turn, inhibits certain genes. These genes are part of the pgaABCD operon, a 4 gene locus in E.coli. Upon CAI-1 detection by the fusion kinase, transcription of CsrB causes inhibition of CsrA therefore relieving the inhibition of the pgaABCD gene transcription. We want our biosensor to produce a response visib
le to the naked eye. We plan to insert E.chromi (from the Cambridge 2009 project) into this operon, this will ensure that its expression is controlled by the activity of our fusion receptor causing a pigment to be produced in the presence of the cholera autoinducer. This project has the potential to be expanded to detect many different pathogens. We have chosen vibrio cholerae as an initial proof of concept as it has a specific autoinducer (CAI-1), reducing the chance of interference in the pathway.

****super complex**** will require a lot of extra research ****

Team:Cambridge 2009
design and construction of biosensors in the the future with a tunable biosensor and colour output (no need to other istrument to visualized the output)

* 
*A Sensitivity Tuner: To avoid being limited to the sensitivity of the promoter and in order to be able to detect distinct concentrations of an inducer using just one promoter, we see the need for a set of sensitivity tuners. These devices allow you to \"tune\" your biosensor, such that it reports meaningful concentrations of the inducer appropriate to the biosensor's application. The sensitivity tuner also modifies the PoPS output from the promoter's native behavior to a sigmoidal \"on\" or \"off\" response pattern.
* 
*Colour Output: What if we could \"see\" the concentration of an inducer in a sample by a change in colour of the biosensor? Many prey species are brightly coloured, showing off clearly the fact that they are poisonous or otherwise harmful to potential predators, a phenomenon known as aposematism or warning colouration. Humans use colour as a means of conveying information as well - we can \"see\" if a child has a fever using a thermometer strip and we can \"see\" the pH of a solution using a pH indicator. Colour can be a meaningful but simple output solution for biosensors, adapting nature's idea of warning colouration.
*

Team: Michigan 2010

**NO GO**

Team DTU 2010
Enable colonies of E. coli bacteria to transition between production of two different reporter proteins
The team is developing E. coli bacteria to function as a switch which can switch between states when exposing the bacteria to light. Different wawe lenghts can control different states in the bacteria enabling various outcomes.

*****Tool that can be used to switch on biological functions*******

EPF Lausanne
The team wants to help stopping the propagation of malaria. The genus Asaia have been proven to be stably associated to a malaria propagating mosquitoe, Anopheles stephensi [1]. We plan to take advantage of this and use engineered Asaia to block the Plasmodium cycle.

We plan to test the following two approaches:
* 
*Asaia produces an immunotoxin consisting of an antibody, which will bind to a specific site on the plasmodium and a toxin (a porin, which will perforate the cellular membrane of the parasite).
* 
*p25 p28 are ookinete (a specific form of the plasmodium) surface proteins. It has been shown [2] that if these proteins are missing the formation of ookinetes and the transformation of plasmodium to the next stage are inhibited. We therefore want to engineer Asaia to inhibit these proteins.
*

******Asaia as chassis********

Team: Stanford 2010

****Regulatory Network****
Based on RNAi 

Team VIRGINIA UNITED 2010
multiple-compound biosensor that detects heavy metals (arsenic, mercury, copper) in aquatic environments with fluorescent output

Team:Uppsala Sweden
****Regulatory netwok using Lactose*****

Team:UT Tokyo

****Salt intake into yeast*****
interesting idea...but probably won't work..:)

Team: Newcastle
***Cement Repair*** ?? Cool stuff

Team Cornell 2009
cell cadmium biosensor by attaching cadmium responsive promoters in Bacillus subtilis to fluorescent reporter proteins.

Team: Georgia State 2010
The recent oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico presents significant pressure to develop new bioremediation technologies. Contamination of sensitive environments can often have devastating ecological and economical repercussions. Monoaromatic compounds such as Benzene, Toluene, Ethyl benzene, and Xylene (BTEX), are particularly toxic and present in industrial products like crude oil and paint thinners. Although there are microorganisms capable of degrading BTEX, they are not always optimal for bioremediation in certain environments. It would be ideal to transform these enzymatic functions into organisms better suited for such conditions.
We propose to utilize Cyanobacteria as a model organism to host a toluene degradation plasmid and contribute to the bioremediation of marine oil spills. High cell densities of Cyanobacteria are found in many of the world\u2019s oceans, and their unique oxygenic ability is useful in the hypoxic environment of an oil spill. The plasmid will be constructed primarily from parts built from the Pseudomonas putida TOL plasmid. Engineered Cyanobacteria could serve as an effective and environmentally-conscious treatment for oil spill contamination.
****Degradation of Toluene**** 

Team Edinburgh 2009
Our project is concerned with the detection of both TNT and nitrites/ nitrates. We have designed two distinct pathways, each detecting the relevant substances. Via signal integration, both pathways interact to give a different visual signals depending on the presence or absence of our target chemicals. The resulting colour pattern will be viewed at night. 

Team: METU Turkey 2010
CO (carbon monoxide sensor - don't need)

Team Gaston Day school 2009
We plan on creating a biological nitrate detector??????? no more information

Team Gronngen 2009
Heavy metal scavengers with a vertical gas drive

It was shown here that the system has potential as a cleaning system for arsenic. As mentioned earlier this modular system can also be implemented in cleaning of other substances. Literature research showed possible modules for copper, zinc, mercury and even gold. So not only cleaning water and sludge but also mining rare metals could be functionalized using this system. 

Team Michigan 2009
This promoter has the ability to sensing toluene when associated with the regulating protien XylR. The goal of our project is to link the absence of toluene with cell death. This is used in our bioremediation project to clean up toluene pollution because it would help prevent the bacteria from poliferating in the environment when there is no more toluene present. Toluene is degraded through two pathways: the upper and lower, meta-pathway. The upper pathway expressed by Pu and degrades toluene into catechol. The lower pathway expressed by Pm and it degrades catechol into pyruvate and acetaldehyde.

Team UIUC Illinois 2010
The 2010 Illinois iGEM Bioware team project has two main components: development of bacteria capable of bioremediation and refinement of a bacterial decoder developed by the 2009 Illinois iGEM team.

The bioremediation portion of our project will focus specifically on heavy metals. To achieve our goal of complete removal of harmful heavy metals, we plan to introduce genes into E.coli that will make the bacteria resistant to the metals being removed, and also genes that code for metal binding proteins that will be displayed on the bacteria\u2019s outer membrane.

Team UQ Australia 2009
Microbes such as Escherichia coli and Cuprivadis metallidurans have an endogenous multicomponent mercury (Hg2+) uptake and reduction operon, under the control of a metal responsive transcription factor, MerR. By utilising elements of this pathway, with a novel recovery mechanism, mercury can be accumulated intracellularly and efficiently removed from the environment. The presence of mercury activates MerR, driving the expression of Antigen 43 (Ag43), a self-adhering surface protein. Coupling a mercury sensitive promoter to the expression of Ag43 enables cells to accumulate mercury then aggregate in solution.

Aug 5 1:45
Michael: we're interested in taking the project beyond biosensing if we don't overexert ourelves
Are there technologies both to find and to clean contamination?
Valentina: yes, but sometimes the explanations in Igem are not sufficiently clear. there are some filtering systems for different kinds of heavy metals
Michael: the model from last night? building a product we can launch in developed AND developing areas? (biosensors)
V: we have to be careful because it's really different. We cannot use flourescence in developing countries, for example, because they don't have readers = it would need to be visible. 
M: ok but we could have that stuff in mind. we can leverage these things in both places.
S: I like our color matching system; different contaimnation types to different filtration or purifcation systems
M: yes, it's intuitive; if you have a red dot in the test,you use a red pill in the water. does that conflict with the purification technologies we have?
V: no, it's in line. we can create different color sensing. it's a good idea, but I don't like the idea that we'd start from just one pollutant, I prefer to create a reading system and a microorganism that can fill another one.
M: so go step by step. How long will it take to develop these things?
V: if we had ALL resources, 6 months. 
M: what about leverage idea of sensors (because they're ready to go) putting them into action and then launching the sensors first, using the capital from there to bring the later parts forward
V: depends what kind of biotech you want to use - if you want to use something igem already created or to combine things, in which case you have to design it yourself. not everything is done - we have to do some things, including testing
M: I understood you can have one organism that could do more than one thing, or we can mix different ones together
V: correct, but for the first we would have to put a lot of work into synthesizing this organism
Claudia: how do we generate money?
M: these sensors have an advantage because they're fast, portable, we can use that to compete with current chemical or electronic sensors, so we could go to developed markert with biosensors and gain money there.justin believes inthis stuff, and candice agrees there's a market for it. so use the money from developed market to bring to treatment development for the developing countries
V: biosensing is a good idea and there's a market, but I would like to spend 20 minutes to think about something different
Sasha: have you discovered any companies who do exclusive biosensing for water
V: no, companies look at wastewater treatment in big plants. I'd lke to think about household systems
Sasha: I think the important thing is what do we do now.
Justin joined
M: question on how to move things forward; we have 10 years, we can start with biosensing and form a strategic plan regarding treatment. first product as opportunity to generate profit
Claudia: I'm not sure we really know that biosensors are needed or superior, we don't have that info. I also don't like the idea of developing treatment in future
Sasha: no, I said create a company that's biologically based, and start with sensing ecause it's available, this doesn't mean we can't look at treatment now or at any specific point, I was just saying it would be good to launch with a project
Valentina: we can also combined sensing and membrane, and maybe it can be developed together
M: I don't know the developing time, do we have one part ready now, one in a year. 
J: different deliverables, there's a timeline
S: market research should be built into the plan, just saying there's a solution that already fits and is readily available, if I were putting business hat on, it would be crazy not to start with what's already there. 
J: my primary interest is in treatment, I just htink biosensors is the best way to start. 
Shary: so how are we going to tackle it in terms of who's working on biosensors and who's working on future activities?
Emma: I'd prefer if we all worked as a team
Claudia: why don't we concentrate on pollution we already know exists
S:J: because that's not cashflow positive

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpwater-Aug2-IDEO
"1) Where we are: the world of water and how we split into problems
2) Avoid anything that looks like a functional group
3) Group by group look for themes of opportunity (broader opportunities to address)
*a. Urban/deployable watersheds
*b. IT enabled solutions
*c. Health 2.0 \u2013 IT Enablers
*d. Bio-enabled solutions
*e. Delivery of potable water
4) Possible deliverables
*a. Business structure
*b. Specific technology
5) Let\u2019s talk about how to advance each of these areas & the ultimate deliverable
(innovative approach to these projects)
6) He would
*a. Be reassured that this is doable
*b. Activities that can roll out over 4 week time scale
i. Before synthesis
1. Everyone reads the seminal works on water
2. Everyone reads a couple other things and reports on them
3. Everyone talks to a couple of experts
ii.Structure innovation ideas \u2013 gather and share information
1. We each have our own understanding of why this is exciting so
make sure that everyone understands everyone else\u2019s point of
view.
a. List on post it notes the interesting bits of information that
we have gathered from reading, talking, etc. to share key
points we have gathered.
b. Look for recurring patterns/specific domains of opportunity
which are manageable.
c. Come up with brainstorming ideas (use IDEO on-line tool
kit) and have a couple of brainstorms.
i. This will generate a framework of opportunities and
concepts.
ii.Narrow down to 3 or 4 or whatever that look good.
iii.
Poster session + critique from rest of group
iv.
Then show them to leaders to get them
critiqued
v.
E.g. \u201cThe Ripple Effect\u201d at IDEO.com; also
launch.org
d. Visualize a system of prototypes to illustrate what you
are going to do \u2013 will need to find ways to mock up the
experience without actually being able to build it.
e. Create stimulus by demonstrating key concepts and get
them in front of thought leaders in water \u2013 i.e., 5 screens
on a phone re technology; a day in the life sketched with
stick figures; a simple key interactive element.
i. Make sure that the experts are spread across
several axes \u2013 ngo, start-up, VC, developing world,
etc.
iii.
Roll information up team by team before consolidating/merging
1. Only consolidate teams/information if it\u2019s required from up high \u2013
don\u2019t force fit stuff.
iv.
Share knowledge with goal to inspiring
v.
Come out with high level insights that we can rally around and
agree to act on
vi.
Create stimulus for research & do this
c. He wants to come back when we have the 4 groups which have identified
areas of opportunity (recurring themes that we are going to do visualization of
opportunities \u20131 week from now) \u2013 around the time of the poster presentations.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpwater-Jul9-Team-Meeting
"Water Team Meeting
7/9/2010 
Friday 
Afternoon

David Dell
Older idea that conventional developed country solution technically, economically, culturally unsuitable in developing world, now outdated
50% world in urban environment
Conventional methods: dogs, pigs, flow in river, now unacceptable
What scale do we want to deal with? How do we frame it?

Sasha: plenty of bandaid solutions, not cost-efficient yet, have ability to affect 1 billion, systemic opportunities bigger, help new, burgeoning cities, how take best part of US water infrastructure?

Pipes, flow, complex problem, no optimal solution in linear time, what if point of distribution network crashes?

Eugenie: want focus on long-term impact

Dhaval: urban slums, legal problem, unable to place infrastructure

2030: 50% population will be urban - 830M people in slums!!!!

David Dell: best water infrastructure being built in Asia (where countries have money to build new cities), most US structure > 100 years old

Water, scalping

M: need to put pipes in

Action Plan:
keep track of and collect statistics
think about groups knowledge needs. who'll focus on which area. gather stats - reliable stats that we can agree on based on our understanding of the issues.

UNCONFERENCE
Justin - Oil sands and shale in Alberta - Oil and Water use.
Significant negative impact on the environment. ecological damage, inc. in cancer rates, loss of life, destruction of habitat.
David - nigeria oil water environmental damage.
Justin - this is a specific issue to oil sands, but other energy generation processes also have their specific environmental impact.

Brief talk on the properties of water.

3 water issues:
1. decentralized/local water treatment alongside of infrastructure (target slums)
2. industrial water usage (target industry)
3. change water usage behavior (target

monday meeting actionable items
meet with nasa person.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpwater-Jul14-Team-Meeting
"
Welcome to EtherPad!

This pad text is synchronized as you type, so that everyone viewing this page sees the same text. This allows you to collaborate seamlessly on documents!

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpwater-Jul12-Team-Meeting
"Satellite Imagery for Water Resource Management

Free (+/- processing)
3D

Know what looking for and how to use
Contact

Reference: EO from Space: the first 50 Years of Scientific Achievements

Case study of Betsiboka Estuary, Madagascar: images assist with conversation efforts

Case study of Yellowstone Lake; ID fire, monitor, plan for future

World Bank: internal projects -> silt barriers

*satelllite date allows you to read environment*

Case study of plankton blooms in Australia: clear indicator of sea surface T, die off -> T rising'

Case study of Lake Poopo: water level drop due to aquifers?

Case study of eutrophication of Buzzards Bay, MA: tends be urban problem due to nutrient run-off

Youtube video on managing agriculture water use

Justyn to speak to speaker about obtaining satellite data for our project

Can make files compatible with Google Earth

DATA SOURCES:
USGS Satellite Products: http://eros.usgs.gov/#Find_Data/Products_and_Data_Available/Satellite_Products

NASA Satellite Products:
https://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/Search_html

Data outside of US more difficult to get

Case Study: TRMM Brazil flood, in retrospect, flood warning signs present, no one was looking/monitoring proactively

*DATA there, not enough educated people monitoring*

Recycling Urine in Space

Not high tech, want low tech because don't want to be troubleshooting, want reliable

No laminar flow in space -> lots of valves

Redundant systems, think about resource constraints

Gas from Sharpies and Velcro -> overloads filtrations system

Packaging very important

Microbial growth issue in 0-g

Diagram of schema

[get presentation slides]

Nomix Toilet: keeps feces separate from urine, keep chemicals in urine for fertilizer

Action Plan:
By Wednesday, synposis description of 5 problem spaces could be addressed
Sasha, Dhaval, Julian, will come up with brainstorm list
Claudia: Monday off to brainstorm, work together, Sunday/Monday
Monday/Tuesday greywater recycling

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpwater-Jun24-Global-Grand-Challenge
"7 vSingularity University Graduate Studies Program
Sustainable Water Assets Panel
June 24, 2010
2:30 p.m. - 5:30 p.m.
NASA Ames Research Park, Moffett Field (Mountain View, CA)

David J. Dell, Ph.D.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaston_Bachelard

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_David_Thoreau

Millions of wells, canals.
Tube wells drew arsenic out of the ground.
20% of all deaths due to poisoning. 
Metal buckets used to be clay.
Now made of recycled parts.
Chains instead of ropes.
All of that has changed, replaced by a tube well.
Today's technology has gone through similar steps.

Man-made waterfall coming out of sewage treatment plant.
1000s being built to deal with urban pollution.
Replacing chlorine with UV light.
Replacing big paddles with oars to stir the SH*T
We could have designed the propeller to be a replicat of the persian wheel
These will be with us for 50-100 years.
Maybe we aren't doing it right.

Lot of \"New\" exciting stuff out there.
Enabling Technology:
Analytics, imaging, mapping, GIS (geo imaging sat.)
Databases.
Magnetism of earth. Some can see whether there is a bug on your tomato.
Water hydraulics. 
I spent 1000s of dollars to have the water analyzed. Trying to find how much cavitation.
We don't know how water works.
There is a wealth of data and knowledge about water that we are just begining to understand.

Emerging Tech:
Nano membranes and substrates.
All modeled on body. Your blood is water.
Most of the modeling we have today Started with blood analysis.
Squeeze out something to make profitable drug.

Biomimicry. We all filter bad stuff out of water.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomimicry

I told Eric I would demonstrate recycling some of my personal water.
You've got to see this.

Hold you hands in front of your face.
Exhale.
We inhale 1% or less, exhale 6% of humidity.
Air being processed by our body back into the environment.

We have clams/mussels which can filter water.
IBM can tell you how big potential is.
Merger of digital and analog worlds.
It is amazing.
Then all those sewage treatment plants - trillions of dollars of continuous improvement.

Knowledge explosion.
June 24 2010 Conference ....
11,000 hits in Google related to membranes.

Maybe 100 conferences going on today for technology and water.
Lot of money in it.
Reason: there are problems.

Problems/Opportunities
Growth:
\"Now we are six\" by A. A. Milne.
We are 6 going to 10 billion. 
Where is our critical mass.
We are hardly grown up at 6.

Urbanization:
Next thing ... I can't even see that stuff. Half of us are urban now.
Urban means not enough land to capture water where you are.
All of these different things. We are creating problems of the future.
Tremendous amounts of pollution.

Rural: half of us are not urban

A farmer and son came across turtle on fence post.
Father took turtle down and said,
\"If you ever see a turtle on a fence post, he had a lot of help getting there.\"

We have poison in all of our water -- some we cannot detect, never mind remove.

Take a moment. Look at each other. Repeat after me,
\"It is not your fault.\"

Phase II.
With knowledge you get and opportunity you have, you CAN do something about it.

In Indian philosophy, giant turtle supports world. Fence post churned ocean. Creativity, joy, immortatlity.

Then, just to close up: No good technology ever came without playing with it. Is it \"Aha\"
Here is a happy turtle.
A happy soul is our next speaker, John.

\"Play! Nothing came to be without playing with it.\"

Stirs up heads of different foundations.
A real pain in the ass sometimes.
If anyone really gets it, he (john below) does.
He cares.

John Oldfield

http://www.wateradvocates.org/

I did read your bios. I have individuals I will put on the spot.
Three things you did this morning:
shower
brush teeth
coffee

Once asked an English friend.
First three things: gin, cigar and good scratch.

You've been warned. Thank you SU. Thank you David Dell.

Time, Space and Water

I've titled \"Time Space and Water\"
There is enough water. Temporal and spatial challenges.
At wrong place at wrong time.
Quality issue.

For today, focus on one aspect. Essentially 1 bn people who do not have safe, sustainable supply.
2.6 bn lacking sanitation.Defecating in open.
We are go into graphic detail.

Water (as vertical) is just another thing out there in a crowded marketplace.
Water (as horizontal) as the foundation. Sine qua non.
Water is the operating system.
If I could choose 1 bn people to impact, who would I choose?

Ad: Here is your brain. On Drugs. My version.
This is the world. This is 4 bn diarrhea cases.
Here is mortality (big red blob in Africa)
2 million under 5 year olds die every year.
Raw numbers in Africa and Asia. And elsewhere.

I like these density equalizing maps.
World Cup version. Number of times in WC. Number of wins.
Interesting maps come from: Worldmapper.org (density equalizing maps)

http://www.worldmapper.org/

New allies into this cause.
Spent a lot of time to get over this 1 bn person thing.
First thing - denial.
Not dying of thirst?
First step is getting past denial.

4 bn cases. NOT 4 million. of diarrheal diseases and 2Million kids die yearly
Get Google to acknowledge.
Get us past denial phase.

How can I get past the despair phase. Manage that needle between denial and despair.
Too young to be in the despair phase. Only question is how to help.

Couple of thoughts about what might work:
First. Sustainabiliy happens when people have a stake in the game. Where poor people have a financial gain in implementing a solution.
That is a radical concept in some circles.
People pay a lot for water - 

Unrecognized ability and willingness to pay for safe drinking water.
NOT suggesting we become water entrepreneurs.
Poor pay more for water than anyone else.

David Kuria.
Schwab prize winner.
Builds toilets/crappers.
This is a kiosk. Sell newspapers. Shoe shine.
Can this scale to 1 bn people over 10 years?
http://www.changemakers.com/en-us/node/6025
Micro-credit/finance.
Mohammed Yunus

This is a woman who has taken a loan out in local currency.
[power drop]
That WAS a woman who extended to her home. $100 debt to get supply to her home.
Very unusual.

Don't forget there is an ability to pay for these services.
You'll see there is a backyard banana plantation.
[power back]
So, 6 weeks of additional revenue, paid back in 4 months.

Momma May. Sells water outside Nairobi - Kenya.
What do you need to electro-chlorinate water?
Adds chlorine (salt) into water. Deactivates bacteria.
Able and willing to make safe water.
That is where it shakes out.

Think services: water, sanitation, services
Think capex (capital expenditures) Think recurring revenue streams.Think job creation.

CEO of water for people.

We have rainwater harvesting. No body is thinking revenues. Cost recovery.
Cell phone or printer model, not just up front expenditure.

Bill Bing?
Loyalty programs.

Frequent shitter program.
Make it cool to take a shit in that establishment every day. 10th one free.
These guys are not impressed by health. They are impressed with being cool - and get shoes shined.
I think it would be cool to get my shoes shined while I take a shit.

Take a piece of shit and crack it in two. You get two things, one is pathogenes while in the other hand you get good stuff.

My job is to deal with morbidity.
Good things - phosphorous, etc. You save lives, create revenue. New agricultural input.
Can it scale to 1 bn? Figure it out.

No silver bullet.
There is for water and sanitation.No silver bullet technically.Very simple, well ventilated pit latrine.

Social silver bullet. Rock star. Ethiopian grandmother.
http://www.watercan.com/ 
Grandmothers who know each other and know the chief (use social marketing). 
Carter center is aiming to eradicate trachoma?

Key to eradication (preventable blindness) is latrines.
Right answer in Ethiopia - grandmother connectors. Connectors. Connectivity will be huge part of your work.
Status. You want latrine in home. Prevents girls from going blind.
When Carter Center relied on grandmothers, 1 m latrines built. Cost: under 50 cents each.

Try to build 1 m pit latrines. 60 cents per.
Ambient intimacy.
New term. We all know too much about each other from Facebook.

B side of water issue. Not rocket science. Actually harder. Behavior change.
In head, not in hands. If only one message, that is it.

If you choose to tackle the mortality map, move way down.
Barefoot mechanics. Rope pumps. Sand filtration systems.
Look at photos in real world.

Community-led total sanitation.
Any idea about flags carried by kids?
Poo flags. Fellow has found a pile of shit and kid has flagged it.
If they see someone taking a shit, they write that person's NAME on the flag and put the flag in the pile of shit.
Kids and Ethiopian grandmothers.

Technology is the software, organization to get things done.
Bore well.
Bunch of shitty water around the outside.
No animals around it.
A step up.

Little girl using a tipi tap?
What if 7 bn people could wash with soap and water after going to the bathroom.
She feels good about washing her hands. even if she might not know the health benefit.

Pit latrine. Looks nice. Well ventilated.
Technology is not only the hardware it is also the software and the social connection. What makes it appropriate.
What does it take to reconfigure.
Central american farmer making a buck ($1) a day.

We know how to remove arsenic.Safely and cost effectively.Also find the social connection that will promote this.

Bangaldesh 77 million people - find technical solution for that.
7.7% toward 1 bn.

We know how to test water. We test without mercy in this country.
We need a dirt cheap water quality test.
Immediate results.
Local result. So locals can act.

We know how to treat water.
Upcycle Shit. That simple. Could be done several orders of magnitude more.

Waste management.
SHIT - needs to be much easier to talk about.
Let's get the scoop on poop.
We can desalinate water - faster, better, cheaper.

Climate change context: water storage. Sorely overlooked. How do you store it safely and effectively when rainfall is unpredictable.
Maybe nano,biotech, fiber. Maybe more holes.
3:22

Soap: could save the lives of 3000 children a day
Average NYorker touches 40 penises a day due to no handwashing

http://www.cartercenter.org/health/itfde/role.html

NASA = hydrogeological maps/data on all countries in the world. get these maps to countries.

Concern about technology is:
My problem with technology is this: if you have too much form and not enough function e.g. people wearing backwards caps
Function versus form. Too much function and not enough form means that children will not used pitlatrines because kids are scared of falling through
Think about water as the operating system and not at water alone. It's water in a very specific context.
THIS IS SOLVABLE

Worth repeating: Behavior change. In head, not in hands

Links:
Interesting igem project on arsenic detection a couple years ago...http://www.technologyreview.com/biomedicine/18103/?a=f

Arsenic Biosensor:http://parts.mit.edu/wiki/index.php/Arsenic_Biosensor

Nano filtration: 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanotechnology_in_water_treatment

Defining Water:http://www.nestle-waters.com/environment/PopupDistrib.html

http://www.theonion.com/

Paul Stimers, Associate, K&L Gates
Global Grand Challenge: Water
Innovation and Policy
(via skype from Washington DC)

Hi, this is Paul from Washington, DC

Exciting opportunity. Glad you are facing challenges.
For a lawyer I have a prettycool job bridging between innbovators and government.
Hard to explain what you do.
Some people - water advocates.
John just wrapped up work they do.
Nanobusiness Alliance. http://www.nanobusiness.org/
Commercial Space Flight
just barnstormed capital hill.

XPrize.
Neurotechnology Industry Association. Improve R&D support.
Clean network.

So, the water innovation alliance at my law firm got involved. Most pressing issue over next century. Right now.
Bring safe water and sanitation to developing world. Be at leading edge.
Problems in water availability.
Way for companies, researchers ...
Increase R&D and education and outreach.
Just of few members - strong IT company representation.
Large water integrators.
Small, nimble innovators.
Universities.

We know there is a problem. $1 T per year for next 10 years needed. WITH technical improvements.

We know brute force won't work. We can't just keep doing the plugging and chugging.
Simply don't have the money.
On transport side, can't rely on high maintenance solutions.

We underinvest in water innovation. 0.3 bn dollars. Vs 1.5 bn on nanotech.
10 bn for renewable energy.
No one is saying nano and renewables are not important.
Agricultural water ... huge sector.
Needs more R&D. Work done is incremental, not game changing.

For last 100 years, underinvesting. Goal is to change that.
Talk about ways to do it.

Top is Water IT. Staggering how little we know about what we are doing with water.
What it costs.
Where it is going.
cost to treat.
We know in aggregate.
Some estimates Chicago loses 60% in pipes under the city. It just disappears. That is staggering. Produce/Tranport/Treat. Could save every year.

Underground sensor for water.

Obstacles: 
First, organizational fragmentation. 25 government agencies that manage SF Bay.
54,000 water organization in the US.
Regluation clash?
Hurricane Katrina. Leading up to storm, levvy system was controled by 90+ authorities.

Second: data fragmentation. Different owners. Different timescales. Min/min day/day month/month.
Different scale of measures. Up to watershed.

Worst part. No one wants to go first. Everyone want to go 3rd or 4th or 5th.
Need to clean up structure.
Enable pilot projects. Have first movement take place so everyone can join later.

My job is not to DO innovation, but to EXPLAIN it.

Not able to clear all copyright. Imagine a diagram with well.
Policy makers are impressed with technology.
Play pumps are wonderful technology.
Use child labor in the form of a playground merry-go-round to pump out ground water

My company promotes the aggressive development of water technologies and innovations across all sectors by creating new market opportnities, increasing funding, strengthening R&D programs, removing regulatory and market barriers.

1Trillion$ per year for the next ten years with technological improvements are the estimated annual investment needed
We underinvest in water innovation where most innovation is incremental and not innovative: in 2008 0.3$ billion for water R&D, 1.5 for nanotechnology R&D and 10 for renewable energy R&D.

Top priority is water IT. We don't know where the water is goign and how much it costs to be produced, transported and treated. Understanding this could save 30-50% across the water sector every year and one of the key ways to do that is to put together a smart network or \"energy grid\" for water. 

Obstacles to achieving this are (i) organizational fragmentation and (ii) data fragmentation where nobody wants to go first!

Best technology is the technology that fits.
Set it in brackish salt water, set it in the sun.
Over the course of a day, water evaporates and recondenses into lid.
1.7 l water per water cone. No moving parts, just a little cap.
That is the kind of thing that can be applied around the world.
http://www.watercone.com/product.html

Policymakers need ways to support game-changing technologies withouth picking winners and losers, waste money on dead ends or worse. They are not very good at this.

Important for policy makers to understand the difference bewteen Fulton [inventor of steam engine] and Bozo [a clown].

When I go meet a member of congress and say that \"this is a crazy idea, but it works\" there can be tremendous support.

We don't HAVE $1 T to spend on water. If you come up with cheaper ways, they are all for it. They can get the job done.
Water Innovations Alliance will be happy to help you.
We could not be more happy that you are focusing on this.
Foundational for all issues, including space.
We want to assist however we can:
paul.stimer@klgates.com
202-661-3883

Manna Jo Greene
http://www.clearwater.org/about/

Use the hudson river as a case study as river water protection.
Problem is found around the world but the same problems are universal.
Founded by Pete Seager.

What is watershed?
An area of land that drains into a single body of water, such as the Hudson River (which empties into the atlantic ocean).

315 miles long
drains 13,400 miles^2 - parts of five US states

All watersheds begin in the head waters
often very pristine, high altitude.
Starts off very steep

Headwater of Hudson starts @ Lake Tear of the Coulds
elev. 4,293 ft
http://www.hudsonwatershed.org/map.html
http://www.hudsonwatershed.org/atlas/maps.html

tributaries care water nutrients pollutants through the watershed.

the lower tidal portian of the Hudson is fed by over 6,000 miles of tributaries making up 14%of the total flow

water is brackish from nyc almost up to poughkippsee

treasures/resources:
recreational
transportaion
historical
tourism

provides 580 Billion gallons of water to 9 million people
concerned that tehy were going to have to put in filtration system

http://www.cwconline.org/pubs/moa/moaintro.html
[The New York City Watershed encompasses some 1,900 square miles of land in the Catskill Mountains and Hudson River Valley Region of New York State. It serves as the primary source of drinking water for the New York City water supply system, which provides approximately 1.5 billion gallons of water daily to more than 9 million customers in New York City, as well as areas of Westchester, Putnam, Orange and Ulster Counties.
The Watershed is actually divided into two separate systems -- the Catskill/Delaware Watershed and the Croton Watershed.]

cost benefit analysis - for $1B, could protect watersheed rather than building $6-8B filtration plant - protecting habitat and water supply

Shad fishing has been banned due to decline in shad \"shad-less shad festivals\"

10 of 13 Hudson River fish are in decline, causes include:
loss of habitat and spawning grounds
overfishing and ocean bycatch
low dissolved O2 from swage plant ischarges
impngement, entrainment and thermal pollution from power plants

wildlife: some are on the rise, others suffer
mink are suffering because of PCB's being discharged in Hudson River between 1937-1977 when they were banned but leaked until ~10years ago

threats to the health of the watershed:
smog - NOx
asthma
respiratory illness
acid rain - SO2
habitat degredation
loss of biodiversity
mercury

adult male, one fish meal/month

persisten organic pollutants (POPs)
PCBS
DDT
dioxin
MTBE
TCE, PCE...
etc...

PCBS banned from Hudson
fish advisories still in place
still continue to enter through bedrock at GE Hudson Falls plant (3- 5oz/day)
continue to flow from Thompson Island pool (1-2lb/day)

Zebra Mussels are invading species that clean the river a little too well, taking other organisms food supply

One of the biggest issue is the Indian Point Nuclear Power Plant
bad record in terms of leaking

Indian Point Nuclear Power Plant:
Assets:
2000mW of electricty
1000 employees
emits less CO2 than coal, gas or oil 
Liabilities:
aging
leaking

Nulclear meltdown would affect 20 million people
power plants kill fish by impingement, entrainment and thermal shock
could save 95% of fish with close cycle cooling

ground water is found at the water level, everything above that has air pockets

over developing can create excessive run offs ... drives up rivers ... kills fish
ground water should be a rate limting factor for devopment

http://www.hudsondredging.com/

Anup Jacob
http://www.virgingreenfund.com/

anup.jacob@virgingreenfund.com

Private equity investor, venture capitalist
We've invested about $500M so far

In terms of context: we invest in renewable energy and resource efficiency. There's a lot of synergistic relationships.
As the world continues to develop, we think about water as the next oil.

> come to us as a source for funding \x3c

Myth #1 Water is a small fragmented market

Water is one of the top 5 areas that you can spend your money in.
If you look at the amount of capital being spent in a number of sub-areas, most of it is in water treatment
As population increases and industrialization occurs and we move to a beef and wheat economy, we're seeing higher water draws occuring.
We're also approaching crisis levels, not just in the Middle East and Latin America, but even in Europe and North America.
Kansas used to have one of the largest aquifers in the world - you now have to drill 150 feet to get to water compared to 10 feet at the turn of the century.
Desalination costs descreasing
The demand is coming from two main areas. One is the actual generation of power. The largest user of water is the production of energy. The largest cost for the clean delivery of water is energy. The convergence of these areas is clear.
If you look at global water usage, we find that ag is a huge consumer of water, which makes sense as we change our diets.
Areas that we can actually focus and impact on the ag side will have a huge impact going forward.
Thermoelectric power has nearly half of the water demand in the US. [Thermoelectric power is when you cool one side of a thermoelectric device. The other side is heated with something, and you get a voltage out. This is an incredible amount of water for a very inefficient power generation process!]
People ask us \"how do you think about the cost of water?\"
Quote by B. Franklin: \"People understand the value of water when the well runs dry\"
You can live for a month without food but only a week without water.
If you look at where low-cost water is, you can look at India and China where it's subsidized. High-cost water is where delivery is expensive.
[Missed something]
The use of wastewater as a source for water going forward is increasing.

Myth # 3 Water is a low growth industry
People view water as growing at about GDP + inflation, but it's a myth.
We need to spend about 10x what we're spending today just to keep up with EPA standards.
Basic water systems continue to not meet the levels that they need to to keep up with population.

Myth #4: You can't make money in the water space.
You're able to make about a 2x increase over where the public markets have been on the S&P 500; over 10 years you're at about 3x. We believe the water industry creates long-term sector returns, across a number of areas.
Long-term evaluations are going to trend toward decentralized water. Where we think that the dollars will flow would be drip irrigation, desalination, any types of UV desktop filters - we think you're going to get paid much more capital because you don't have to deal with municipalities.
Private equity has been spending a lot of money in this space. There's a lot of green investing going on. We're seeing year-on-year increases on the spend in this space. We're also seeing a diversification - not just VC but also infrastructure.
It's ultimately not a very sexy industry but it is large. If you go to the largest conferences you'll see. The solar industry has a large conference of 10,000 people, but water has a 60,000 person conference.
Fundamentally, economic substitution is very different. You can't subsitute this commodity. This is not coke vs. pepsi, this is water vs. thirst.
As populations go up, demand is going up over time.
Two examples of business we promoted:
7 seas water - desalination in the carribbean. Very wealthy resort areas and very poor domestic areas. The domestic areas need power and water. This was a startup in 2003; this year they'll do about $25 million in revenue.
Quench is a water distributer. Water sits in plastic bottles and there is legislation about leaching. Our view is that the distribution of water will create good long-term economics.

The emerging trends we're seeing are increasing tech being applied to fundamental disruption in the price and cost of water,[??]
The M&A side of this will continue despite the economic climate.
The conclusion here is that as an investor, when we look at economic opportunities, people are looking for 30% on their capital, so you have to create an economically viable solution: follow the energy, have long-term sustainable margins, and if you're creating a distributed system you'll be paid on the exit as opposed to the entrance.
Look out for those that say they have a \"one product\" business because those multifaceted companies have the best returns

when they look at an investment, they want to see a return of investment that is 3X (= they get back 3 times more what they have invested) and the exit can be going public (IPO) or being bought by a private company.

anup.jacob@virgingreenfund.com

Howard Passell

Defining Water
http://www.nestle-waters.com/environment/PopupDistrib.html

Q&A:

Q: Use of solar?
A: Desalination hasn't worked because of 
cost of operation and construction needs to come down ~50%
concerns also of remaining salts
compared to the alternative of no water...

Q: is oil in gulf going to clog reverse osmosis plants?
A: largest plant is in tampa, no issues yet
no question that energy and water are intertwined
biggest oppurtunities in both are reducing use 
per function use is going down, but overall total use is increasing
reverse osmosis, some costs are decreasing, interesting to follow because the oppurtunity to decrease other component

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desalination

sand filtration

UV filtration - Example: Water Health International, $50K/kiosk and it works - attempting to reduce the UV spectrum

Q: The way technology is implemented in our lives (rich people can afford, poor eventually can afford), how do we make this problem global and dispell some myths?
A: Definitely a developed world problem (example is keeping clean water in Hudson - a couple years ago people weren't familiar with watershed terms etc -> education in local area is key
Even in developed world, cost of water is no where near value of water
New Dehli, 1/3 of disposible income on water -> until water bills are higher than cable bills, may not pay attention to it
In rich countries: water is poisoned, built infrastructure that overflows and doesn't filter contaminents. is there a way to leap frog technology?
What does Las Vegas need to learn about water collection? Should it (or Southern California) even exist?
US EPA is funneling stimulus $ into green infrastructure, development of sewage treatment that would be like wetland

Q: Mostly about making $ from water, in Nigeria big boom in water business because of people being aware of needing to drink clean water. A gal of water costs $0.01 on average... 
A: Situation in Nigeria similar to other dev'ping countries. Invest in water (Example: Manila,http://www.manilawater.com/) What can society do to prioritize this issue? Ask for money? How do you spend money? Infrastructure? Environmental? Indigenous lobbying
Azurix (Enron's other business) - privatization fo water worldwide
Pitch: You're a developing country, we will give you money but you pay us back at 5x

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azurix
azurix

Q: Can you give us any examples of countries that have successful water management?
A: India - water is constitutional right
South Africa - government has established a threshold of 30L/per/day for free (after that you pay)

Q: Clarify >30% ROI (return on investment), is this for developing or developed world? What are limitations?
A: Cost of capital concerns. 5-10% IR for developing world, 8-12% IR developed countries.

Q: Should we make money off of water when it's something that we really need? Is there a way to do it ethically?
A: If one hand, I want to live my life the way I want
Other hand, I don't want to pay for it
Capital markets won't pay for this
Developing countries paying higher return on equity
Are cell phones, electricity, air, Apple computers a right?
Would we do what Azurix did?

How many think water is given right? almost all hands up
How many think that you pay too much for water? some hands went up..
McKenzie's view (http://www.nawc.org/resources/documents/pdf/price-cost-value_brochure.pdf) - in USA paying ~\x3c40% than what we should be paying - poorer are paying much more than they should, 2x on either side. The rich is paying much less than they should be paying while the poor is paying much more than they should.

====
Unrelated discussion:

Systems Thinking
http://www.hainescentre.com/systems-thinking/seven-levels.html

June 24, 2010
15:20Emma Brooke: I love this huy
15:20Emma Brooke: guy*
15:20Shary: He loves the word shit
15:20Shary: Loves it
15:21Emma Brooke: !!
15:21Shary: John Oldfield \x3c3 shit
15:21Emma Brooke: He's telepathic!
15:21Claudia: http://www.peepoople.com/ (a cool solution from Viking land)
15:22Derek Jacoby: interesting igem project on arsenic detection a couple years ago...http://www.technologyreview.com/biomedicine/18103/?a=f
15:23Candice Berezan:http://parts.mit.edu/wiki/index.php/Arsenic_Biosensor
15:29John Graves:http://www.theonion.com/articles/los-angeles-to-siphon-water-from-minorities-bodies,915/
15:30Emem: @John- Pls share the title or subject of above link
15:31Matt Kern: i think nanofiltration is something (if made economical) is worth looking into
15:31Matt Kern:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanotechnology_in_water_treatment
15:34Claudia: will he speak clearer if we show the sign? :)
15:35Everson: some projects made economical converting sea water in potable using nano
15:35Everson: taste good
15:40Eric Eze: defining water: see thishttp://www.nestle-waters.com/environment/PopupDistrib.html
15:41Rich: anyone been kicked from etherpad this afternoon?
15:42Derek Jacoby: only once. Much better than this morning.
15:42Eric Eze: try to change browser ?
15:42Matt Kern: einstein was all about elegance
15:43Alison Lewis: question: has anyone created a sensory-type network from bio or nanotech that does not require a local power source or is chemical based?
15:43Claudia: Browser, I recognize that word....
15:44Derek Jacoby: the prototype igem arsenic sensor that was mentioned a bit ago is pH based and doesn't require power.
15:44Derek Jacoby: that one is not by any means deployed, though
15:44Alison Lewis: thanks Derek
15:45Alison Lewis: If this is your specialty, I'd like to talk
15:46Derek Jacoby: not sure it is, really, but happy to chat and see if I know enough to be useful to you
15:48Matt Kern: article describing issues around filtering water and some related companies/solutionshttp://www.tahan.com/charlie/nanosociety/course201/nanos/SK.pdf
16:13Candice Berezan: Allison - you should chat with Jason - he competed at the competiton a few years ago and won with his team (maybe at the same time as the arsenic project) I deal with iGEM and have been involved with the group out of MIT for a few years not...we can chat further if you'd like
16:13Candice Berezan: Shoot - meant Justin - my bad (sorry Justin - our joke got the better of me!)
16:21Emma Brooke: @Candice - Or as John Oldfield would say - Shit!
16:21John Graves: I am VERY familiar with water treatment in New York. Once dated the chief scientists at NY City Water Authority ...
16:22Shary: Justin, do you have the same joke with everyone?
16:22Shary: I'm feeling a little slighted
16:23John Graves: Pete Seager takes students out on the sloop to help educate them about water quality.
16:23John Graves: So there really IS a boat on the river.
16:24Candice Berezan: @ Emma - absolutely!!
16:26Candice Berezan: iGEM Hg project out of Australia: http://2009.igem.org/Team:UQ-Australia/Project
16:26John Graves: Liberty Science Center has good exhibit on Hudson River life:http://www.lsc.org/lsc/ourexperiences/exhibits/hudsonhome
16:27Chiara G.: what is PCB?
16:28John Graves: Poly Carbonated Biphenal?
16:30John Graves: Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs) PCBs, since classified as persistent organic pollutants, were used for a wide range of industrial applications, before their manufacture was banned in 1979.
16:31John Graves: Environmental Protection Agency: \"PCBs have been demonstrated to cause cancer, as well as a variety of other adverse health effects on the immune system, reproductive system, nervous system and endocrine system.\"
16:38John Graves: TCE = Trichloroethylene is a colorless liquid which is used as a solvent for cleaning metal parts.
16:40John Graves: Benthic organisms, such as sea stars, oysters, clams, sea cucumbers, brittle stars and sea anemones, play an important role as a food source for fish
16:51John Graves: EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Value/Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization or Enterprise Multiple)
16:53Kausar N. Samli: i wonder if the growth rate data just shown is for NA and Europe, or Asia and Africa, or Global?
16:53Kausar N. Samli: growth rate data for higher multiples in UV, filtration, and desalination compared to plumbing and pumps etc.
17:27Tigist: Candice: thumbs up for the thought sharing first
17:31Emma Brooke: Woooo ethics!
17:35David Hutchison:http://www.nawc.org/resources/documents/pdf/price-cost-value_brochure.pdf
17:35David Hutchison: i think that's the study he's talking about
17:41unnamed: \"the rate of profit does not, like rent and wages, rise with the prosperity, and fall with the declension, of society. On the contrary, it is naturally low in rich, and high in poor countries, and it is always highest in countries which are going fastest to ruin\" Adam Smith

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tpwater-Jul5-Water-TP
"Assigned room in Bldg 583C for the first TP meetings the afternoon of 5 July 2010.
Water - Room 104B (outer) 'room C'

Google group: https://groups.google.com/a/singularityu.org/group/water

TP Water

Candice Berezan: agree with everything been said, more aligned to access to clean, safe, water is right, appalling that with our technologies, people don't have
William Bing: huge problem affecting large # of people, most passionate about, addressable with today's technology
Elizabeth Brook: opporutnity to social business and change, so important for platform for economic development, may be magic bullet solution
Emma Brooke: solve water problem, platform for solving 
Dhaval Chadha: conceivable, doable project, based on people wanted to work with
Jorge Fernandez: impact positively more people in world
Aleksandar Grujicic: direct consumer solution, legislative nightmare too daunting in other projects
Ankur Jain: solvable problem, align minds to focus on it, water needs met, basic needs can be met -> economic progress
Michael Jensen: great opporutnity to do something tangible, connections to leverage to get stuff done
Tyler Kratz: water = new oil, make money off it
Miguel Angel Luengo Oroz: water = right, don't realize it's not free
Valentina Margaria: agree with everything, can solve problem of clean water can drive economic revoltuion in developing countries
Sharon Niv: the most pressing problem when travel, greatest potential to impact
Claudia Olsson: water can make difference in communities like India, when supplied in sufficient manner
Justin Pahara: here for all of these reasons, can solve water as well as economic problems in communities, create sustainable solutions that may become viral, implement biology, scalable, cheap with nanosystems
Eugenie Rives: water impacts developing countries
Kausar Samli: single unifying factor to improve quality of life, integrate multiple factors: education, health, economics
Julian Ugarte: water = right, want 
Julielynn Wong: prevent deaths through water-borne diseases
David Wyler: technology exists, needs implementation in right places
Marko: most connected to heatlh

Existing pad: http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-water
Wiki: https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/tp-5-water

Water issues to understand:
Understand context - probably not going work on Mars water.
Understand watershed.
Understand water infrastructure \u2013 pipes, water treatment plant
Understand water vocabulary

Central Themes Behind Student Motivation
Water = right
Technology exists
Solvable
Drives other factors (quality of life, healthcare)
Sustainability profitability

New technologies coming and sufficient technologies today
What kind of company/organization we have to organize vast amounts of knowledge

5 rubrics for a company/organization
*Marketing
*Technology
*Talent+Resources
*Finances
*Design+Aesthetic

Simple game to map capabilities
Be interviewed by each table
Ranking

Research 50 companies listed by Artemis Website
Each group selects top 5 from 10 companies reviewed
One line intro by each person

David Dell:
Lots of technologies evolving rapidly
Balance of equation between waste water generation versus cleaning
Why hasn't this problem been solved? (Government hasn't selected one technology - Ankur) Problem: water isnt' clean and people drink it
All water exists in watersheds
No water infrastructure today that doesn't have 100 technologies in it, leaky pipes
Core technologies can be added up
Water infrastructure for next 100 years will be built in next few years, affecting several billion people

Action Plan:
-Meet on Wednesday at 9 pm, light reading on problems and technology solutions, on what things haven't worked, 2 minutes, consistency of presentation format, start a glossary/term definition
Visit wastewater management plant this Friday

Discussed Future Activities
-Research technologies relating to developing world akin to exercise today
-Sasha: divide half to research problems and half to research technology solutions
-ETIR: technology roadmap, technologies available, might be able to do in a few years and beyond, mapped against a few problem spaces
-Goals = doable, prototype in 18 months, in foreseable timeframe with technology now and understanding of what future technology will enable
-Lizzy: Session schedule due by tomorrow
-Candi: Themed unconference on problem space

Suggested Activities

Skylab water recyling 
Photophotalysis: light purification of water
SanDeo Labs looking at watersheds and data mapping for managing politics, identifying stakeholders
Risa Labs: best geospatial database capability -> watershed map, data input, harvest, ID watershed put at risk if mine shale 
Water Institute teaching people to clean up watersheds, using natural methods rather than industrial route
Membrane technologists focusing on UV, how to sell in infrastructure environment
Domenican Republic
Redwood water management

Q&A:
Problem sourcing and solution
Urban versus rural in developing world
Most of poisoning happens in industrial world
Mixed truth about Sterling engine, Dean Kamen

July 7th 2010 Meeting

Problem Spaces:

1. What is the problem? Be specific.
2. Where is it happening? Geography.
3. How many people is it affecting?
4. What has been tried so far? Successes, barriers, etc.

Sasha: water leakage in developing world, 6 million gallons treated water lost per day in US, backflow: reduction in pressure -> untreated water gets pulled into system, primarily across water dissemination in US, number affected 300 million, could extract to other populations, solutions; water acoustic systems, flow meters

Dhaval: 1.1 billion without access to safe clean drinking, 1.6 - 2.5 million die of unsafe drinking water each year, cost unknown, Sudan, Venezuala, Zimbabwe worst; poor sanitation affects 2.5 billion; 2030, 80% of people will be in urban settings

Candice: Sanitation and open defecation 1.1 billion 10 countries (#1 = south Asia), decreasing in rural settings and increasing in urban settings, David Dell: open field defection healthy

Kausaur: sanitation

Michael: Article Africa national state ownership of water -> conflicts, collaboration in Niger and Okavanga basin, problems around Nile, Egypt uses military to enforce water, 300 million people are affected by water scarcity, cost

Emma: arsenic poisoning, skin problems, cancers, death, DM, HTN, reproductive disorders due to ingestion of contaminated, countries affected include Argentina, China, Bangladesh, Thailand, Mexico, India, US, not well documented, arsenic linked to onset of leading of death (WHO website), digging deeper wells, rainwater harvesting (can lead to secondary risks of infeciton), water testing, arsenic removal system, Marko: cheap testing

Erika: Thermal pollution defined as water degradation which leads to changes in water ambient T , circulation of water as coolant by industry or urban run-off, slow and fast kill in ecosystem (i.e., fisheries), solutions: cogeneration, cooling ponds, towers; infiltration basin, retention system, examine cogneration, tools for measuring T, 30% of water delivery is for cooling electric plants in US

Erika: nonpoint solution pollution: diffuse point solution arises from many different human activities land clearing, deforestation, construction, feed lots, agricultural practices, change hydrological conditions by decreasing permeability or increasing flashiness?, not easily controlled directly, solutions often focus on land management, problems -> erosion, loss of fertile soils, increased sedimentation, dams, waterways, excessive turbidity -> devestation to potable water and habitat, sediments primary carriers for toxic chemicals, differences in water quality, pesticide pollution, changes in soil permeability, increased surface run-off couldn't get it all!, difficutl to get data (timescales in appropriate, problems with information sharing, using developed world technologies not always appropriate), issues decisions made at local level -> unwilling to absorb externalities of actions, edu, action education, sharing info on best practices

Mining and leaching as primary source on bad stuff in water

Claudia: supply chain management to Africa, India, etc., women have to collect water from distant sources, carry 10 L /day 3 - 5 km, health problems, at home, reduces productivity, large socioeconomic problems, reduces school attendance, solution: well drilling, piping, cars deliver water to villages through microloans, take into account culture - women didn't want to use pipes because water collection was a social event, Dhaval: involve people in solution-building process, motivation -> allow girls to be educated

Lizzy: 27 waterborne disease, WHO pdf, diarrheal diseases 4.1% total burden of disease worldwide, had clean water and good sanitation 88% reduction, effective to invest in technology, $1 USD -> economic return of $3 - $34, business to be made, $11.3 billion woudl halve number of people with waterborne diseases, only spent 1.7 billion -> water supply, takes 22.6 billion for adequate sanitation (real issue: running water, waste managment), piped water supply access to all cost $136.5 billion dollars, achieve MDG only lead to a reduction in 10% of episodes of diarrhea, think bigger than MDG, 

Water used to shower, clean, cook, not just for drinking, people don't have access to water, don't have access to running water, can't place pipes if don't own land, slum in Peru paying 8x more for same water in center of Lima, delivery not good, many people don't have good, reliable access to water, how create new system of delivery without pipes; search term: greywater, somewhat used water for reuse

Solution Spaces

1. What problem is it trying to solve?
2. Where can it be applied?
3. What are the limitations of the solutions? Political, technological, cultural, etc.
4. Where is this technology headed (Cheating the ETIR)

Claudia: sell clean bottled water in developing water from contaminated waters, use profits to improve quality 

Lizzy: social water Ethos, sell water at Starbucks, part of profits use to support water projects; interesting revenue model 

Ankur: Give Water 10 cents/bottle -> National Wholefoods distribution, 1 gallon of water to create bottle?, Fiji water company take filtered water, made it hard for locals to get access to own water supply due to high demand

Marko: new water systems, diseases go down

Marko: biosensor for arsenic, need solution to purify arsenic GMO

Ankur: Dean Kamen $1000 water system, 1000L /day, works for 2 years

David Dell: Cost to build wastewater treatment, bigger they get, better they scale, $20,000 per person

akashgunga: rainwater 

Ankur: X-prize Lab student prize competition Powerpoints

Bill Bing: toilets 2.6 billion lack access to adequate sanitation, separate feces, worst in southern Asia, central Africa, number of diarrheal deaths, limitations: cultural adoption, money for initial mould via printing under $74/bathroom, microfinanced by community, article from Ned Breslin, Fertiloo designed by Stanford, Justyn idea on refinements with enzymes, job creation and waste disposal -> fertilizer, Powerpoint

Justyn: address water contamination, inexpensive lavatory, economy-based, create low-tech waste treatment plant, create economy around waste collection, transportation to low-tech treatment plant, harness methane for biogas, genetically modified organisms to enhance waste sterility and fertilizer -> community electricity, sanitation, calculate amount of energy from it, 1 L -> 400 L methane, needs business model, cultural acceptance, develop ecosystem, 

David: consider alternative technologies -> missing a lot that's massive

Three Themes:
Distribution
Upcycling
Cleaning
Water reduction

Julielynn: Problem: contaminated drinking water, Solution: Lifesaver Water Purifier, Applied: disasters, refugee displacement, wound irrigation Limitations: large scale, $8 billion for MDG, 20 billion for all safe drinking water, does not remove salt, requires maintainence with silicon grease, takes 1- 28 days to be shipped, cost 149 - 179 USD, discount for charities Future: Mazda Kyoma car 

Julielynn: Problem: lack of water distribution infrastructure Solution: ID areas of need and have militaries/universities train their units to build water infrastruture Limitations: political and institutional buy-in 

David Dell: drinking water facility can be constructed in emergencies for 2 hours $70,000 for 10 years, don't want to create PortaPotty to be parachuted in, at least 10,000 organisms working on these issues, eg., composing latrines x 1000, existing solutions big part of problem

Valentina: ceramic pot with clay filter element, easy to use, produce, use local materials and skills, educational programs, successful, prevents pathogenic organisms, not useful for chemical contamination http://s189535770.onlinehome.us/pottersforpeace/?page_id=9

Tyler: large scale desalination

Actions Plan
Justyn: sign-up sheet for problem list
Friday: 2:30 pm Unconference on problems we should focus on, program agenda, ETIR 
Ankur: fill in Dean Kamen product on David Hutchison's list, X-prize Powerpoints
Bill please post Powerpoint to docs section
Portal -> ID water problem list

July 9th 2010

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Aug6-Class-Meeting
"Friday
8/6/2010
Class feedback session

5:42
Salim:
2-3 things
Class rep
Phase II feedback

So I want to get this started. Keep to 30-45 minutes.
A few people missing.
Kick off with one very important thing.
Today is Andy's last day.
[lots of applause - standing ovation - Andy beams]
In his honor, cupcakes and cookies here.
[more applause]

Sense of how Phase II went.
Please fill out feedback forms.
How did Phase II go.
Did people like them? 
80% fabulous.
- most thought 3/4 really good
How many switched? a lot.
How many told you that before you did it? I don't think so.

Emma: Large difference between excitement level.
Marko: One day - 2/3 really good trips. Second day.
Brad: Spread out the sucky ones ...
Chiara: More people do more. Keep up past 3 weeks.
Salim: More plenary - only a few.
Chiara: Repeat?
Salim: Not easily. Not VMS. Only astronauts - or time in pool.
Davidad: Restrictive things to co-occur.
Michael Chen: Make case why we thought to fit in restrictive ones. Different selection based on merit (rather than first in).
Emma: Seemed the restrictive ones were too much favoritism.
Andrew: Bit of concern - not many people showed up.
But. If you put 1 / 2 / 0 - get pushed in. Not a lot of incentive.
Difficult that slotted in means people should attend.
Might be eeshould attend.
Might be easier - if people weren't going to go, could opt out.

Salim: Need to tell us. Embarassing.
Aspect of that comes in to play.

Alison: One thing contributed to that - better planning on ETIRs. No excuse we aren't getting sleep - Due Monday. Tuesday morning, we're done. Look at deadline and day next to it.
Salim: Discussed at faculty, will fix.
David H: One day when nothing was scheduled to get things done.
Felt had to cram and miss.
Salim: Half day free the day before a deadline.
Juan: 2 comments about entrepreneurship =
Tina Seelig - should have been plenary
In this track, message was a bit narrow.
Only internet guys are entrepreneurs - told social entrepreneurs were not entrepreneurs.
[applause]
Salim: So, social entrepreneurs are people too.
Valid point.
Jason: Had trouble remembering what I had in the morning. 
Each person sending activities - calendar thing - reminder.
Davidad: There is.
Dmitry: list names in the calendar event
Eric: Screen in this room showing what is going on whehere.
Hessel: Standard phone - not common phone is issue.
Salim: We tried that - at last minute fell through.
Claudia: Why Phase I and II divided up.
Mix with lectures?
Salim: Rationale - Phase I - give overview. Give state of the art.
How people thinking.
Phase II - hands on.
If you mix it up, the pedagogy - you miss context.
If two combine - if you've only seen one - haven't had lecture.
Claudia: The two are indepedent. Should be merged into one phase with lectures and site visits
Emma: Learn well from doing things. Refreshes you a bit.
Zain: WillowGarage was the best.

Chiara: Spread lectures - rather than 8 hours.
Salim: Eric / Em? ISU model - lectures , interdisciplinary?
Eric: Different experiments done.
Right now = what lecture would you have next week until this late in the program?
Making use of networks. Only now be hearing about biotech?
A lot is scheduling.
Biotech packing in.
People coming in/out 
If everybody spends whole summer up. Costs go up.

Andrew: 3 before. 2. Then 1.
Great at the beginning. Sort of dragged on.
Difficult to get same enthusiasm.
More unconference or general side opportunities.
Would be highest on my list.
3AM hanging out.
Salim: Hold that.
Chiara: +

Vincent: Team project. Reworking.
Salim: Next topic.

Vincent: Brilliant speakers. Lot of fun. Designed a restaurant with Tina. Fun but not productive.
Alison: Came in way too late. Needed 3 weeks ago.
Vincent: Lecture was great, exercise not.
Alison: VC - but really weird time for that. Not ready to pitch.
I'm thinking about different process.
Salim: Casualties of scheduling availability.
Vint Cerf - get time when he says.
Juggling the schedules in the three months previous.
Ridiculous combinatorial problem.

SJP: Timely VC. Might be done before ignite.
Salim: Another casualty of scheduling.

Everson: How they did not fit the proposals we are building here.
I would like to suggest - billionaires who invest in long term projects.
Different kind of MO.
Salim: Different types beyond internet startup types.
Everson: First Round, looking that way.
Doesn't fit with THAT investors ... but other types.
Eric: Silicon Valley models here. Explore how things happen in rest of world.
Zain: More start ups. Yahoo? Brickhouse?
Salim: Here is the problem - you see cubicles.
Zain: Seeing Google was really interesting.
Salim: Lot, dull boring. May see more.
Bill: Tim Ferris - organizing him to come back.
Potential to bring back - 5/10 minutes per person.
Really valuable.
Salim: Last couple of comments.

Julio: ETIR sometimes ...
Salim: Pause.
Julio ... Okay.

Jan: Last minute additions, but pushing the ones already scheduled. Missed opportunity to get together. Hurt cohesion
Salim: Difficulty with Phase 3 - exponentially harder. Throws you off.

David R: Tom Byers: So good - everyone should see them.
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Aug4-Silicon-Valley-Entrepreneurship (second talk)

Zain: Side visits - despite constructive criticism, enjoyed it.

Eugenie: Not one person from SU from 9 to 9. Great to have someone just staying with us all the time. Brainstorming - one along. 
Salim: ?
Eugenie: Just one person with us all the time.
TFs: We are here all the time until midnight. (Ross)
Eugenie: 
Salim: The TFs give us feedback also.
Move on to team projects.
Presentations up and down - overall phenomenal.
Feedback, comments?

Chiara: I think that I am kind of scared about next weeks.
These weeks were maybe too much for the team projects.
Few things I really like - not in team project.
Polypill
But we have to discuss at midnight.
People here, for me, the most important thing.
People I haven't seen in a few days, will be worse.

Emma: Building on that. Have a little variation time.
Daunting - 12 hours a day with same people doing the same thing.

Maggie: Bit of a minority opinion. I want a deliverable I am really ply proud of.

Salim: We have now finished Phase II.
Maggie: I don't think 100%

Davidad: One day at park. Would be good to break up.
TF: SF weekend.
Salim: One more leisurely trip.

Bill: Random deliverables that feel like academic work. ETIR.
[applause]
Why write a document significantly worse.

Salim: Failure of communication.
Last year. 
Found solution on day 3. That was the solution they were stuck on.
When we did feedback at end of term, with the students, they said to put deliverable in the middle - put solution in context. With consideration, put solution forward.

You are now gelling as a group - dynamics just starting to settle down.
We had it blow up last year.
Bill: Why write a paper?
Salim: How long were reports supposed to be?
Eric: 15-20 pages.
Salim: Space one was 69 pages.
Boiling it down was the harder part.
Reason it is there.

Alison: Reason for me. What happened - start getting this wonderful momentum. 

Vincent: If purpose of ETIR - take path.
Forcing to write document - not best solution.
People want to go path X, write bad document, go back to path X.

Salim: How to manage tension -
look at overall problem space - please let us know.

Emiliano: Good idea - just in wrong place.
Pick ETIR for end of stage 1.
Analyze things we learn, in specific space.
Not clear WHY writing ETIR.
Once we were together wanted to work on project.

Chiara: To give overview - didn't get it.
Goal should be addressed by team leader.
Reduce our time.

Salim: Not a lecturing exercise. Not that you are fed that.

Chiara: Once you have a general overview.

SJP: In relation to Space team, advantageous for articulating expectations of 
ETIR:
5 distinct different directives -
Sponsor is one way - very confusing for a group. Manage response to that, due consideration.
Transparency there - ask us to be innovative - step up, level of respect established.

David Roberts: Two changes. Time shortened 2/3 day period.
Rather than producing - educated each other, more engaging.

Zain: Salem

Andrew: Groups of 4. Tried to tie together.
Salim: Team sizes too big.
In ISU model - 30 to 50 sized teams.
: And we haven't been back to space since the 60's. [laughter]
Eric: Founded out 
Salim: Fastest growing space company founded out of ISU.
Eric: Ones who learned to work in larger groups went on.
Claudia: ETIR was great for us. But knowledge does not seem that rewarding.
Change - have competition - who will be most informed.
They get budget.
Salim: Fabulous idea.
Claudia: Experts to question the team - Team will have to get the knowledge, not produce the report.
Salim: A 15-20 page report is not a big deal. Called team building.
One other aspect of this.
Not just about producing a product.
Creates another data point for you to interact with each other.
Having the group do different things, builds depth of relationship.
Hardest thing to do is to work effectively when team is all high performers.
Biggest problem with Brickhouse was getting rockstars to work together.
When they did it- unbelievable.
You learn it over time.
You'll come back to structures, not obvious right now.

Michael: WHY ETIR? So you can understand problem space.
I would like to challenge assumption that you actually have to do that.
Ideas for impacting - 
Fundamental issue - people to get broad understanding - or ACT.
Metric is whether solution is 10^9+. 
If I can convince you, I don't have to show you about 20 ideas that didn't work.
Measure what you want people to do.

Bryce: second what Michael said.
I don't think it is true response - hard to get everyone to work together.
Suggestions are aimed at fixing ETIR. 
Giving us a broken process - not good.
Not a good relationship between students and faculty.
If we are going to have ETIR.
Research
Meaning having journals
It is an embarassment - no academic access.
needs to have time spent in that area
[applause]
Salim: Let me give you some caveat. Not saying ETIR is perfect. After last summer, 
lot of thrashing around. ETIR was best guess.
At end of summer, we will evolve.
Last year - groups formed on this day last year. You are 4-6 weeks ahead.
About Aug 5/6 is when they figured out what their teams were.
Have thinking start early.
Is it perfect? No.
Can it be improved? Yes.
Will we try? Yes.
What worked, didn't. Put it back in feedback loop.

Zain: Essential to have research in front of us.
Lauren: Stuff we needed was $800 per report.

Andrew: Working on team project - support process already being done.
As a future method - here's what we found from thorough approach. But here is what
opportunities really are. After having this presentation. Maybe some areas might be 
abandoned.
Not much feasible now. Let people choose into it.
What you are getting is that people are pushing sub-optimal reports.

Davidad: ETIR really good idea. Communication about way phases would flow was misaligned. 
Ramp from week 1.
I think team projects started today.
Need to reflect that's what you are doing.
Then, maybe, you change teams.
Form teams around most promising.
Dhuval: Free market to change projects.
Polypill
10 others.
List 25 online.

Bill: For Space group - you wrote entire report yourself. Different from most.

Tony: One way to improve this and help ETIR - submit it when we are ready. 
Upcycle - none of us experts.
We are just giving you something we have. More time to give it to you.
Salim: No deadline? A little tricky. Better point - no one expert in that area.
Vincent: Pick on interest. Last year: who you wanted to work with.
This approach - getting things done much more difficult.
Salim: Last year, bit of a hybrid. Caucused.
Topic based.
Emem: What is the aim of team projects? Get excited enough to implement. If not excited, won't implement.
You have three weeks. People have been talking.
Let people who are excited actually do it.
Salim: But if you are a team, you should be excited about it.
Emem: I had three options. Went to Energy because Jose recruited me.
At end of SU, do I want to do Energy.
Is it solution anyone can pick up.
If at end, people who have jobs will quit their jobs and take up project.

Eric: Postpone team project selection. More open space. Throw more ideas.
Assemble teams via polls.
Do what Emem is saying - projects we really want to happen.
2 weeks of real work. 
We should do it.

Claudia: Good process.
Fantastic to have accumulated this knowledge.
Only thing I've seen - report not everyone will read. Not write report.
Learn about area. Have competition.

David H: Comments on motivation. Seems like the way it happens in business world.
Open field. 5 different areas. Found friends. Motivated to do own research.
Just as when starting business. Some deadline - may form earlier than that.
More a matter of working with the right people.
Rather than list of requirements.

Sasha: Just an idea. Categories. Not a good idea.
In principle, know you are trying to focus room of people onto big problems, issues.
Harness that energy.
What it lacks is personalization of issues.
We have some people really at the coal face of these issues.
Identify groups to have them pitch to us.
Experts in a field.
Experts in technology.
Rather than \"try to learn all you can\"

Salim: More expertise that you can ask of ...
Sasha: Partner with people who need our input.
Gary: Personal feedback - not just e-mail
I'd like to know your opinion. Be directional. Rather than bullets.

Maggie: Dialog.
Salim: OK. will try to find time to do that.
At team project level.
What we did was collect all individual feedback. Try to do that.

Eric: Tried to give feedback to leads. Can visit teams.
Marko: OK. If I understood correctly - ETIR to look at whole problem space.
We had different way. 
Jose, talks every day - had problem space
Learned about space from talking to people.
Everyone has different numbers about the field.
In this way, really learned - lots of guests - plus presentation.
You ask questions.
Salim: Rather than report. Have verbal defense.
Marko: Would work a lot better. Brad came, asked us. This is how we learn.

Julio: Surprised with Gary. Spoke with so much passion about the problem.
When you are passionate - you will work to find the solution.
Academic delivery. Find passion.
Not difficult.
To help 1 billion people, need energy.

Salim: context where we are overall.
Finished Phase II.
: Yeah
[applause]
Salim: How many remember Tom Wujeck's talk.
http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jun26-The-Art-of-Visualization-by-Tom-Wujeck
You are about there. Peak unhappiness.
This is a point -you've turned corner.
When doing team building. Always that curve.
Goes through this curve.
If we change structure, will be just as many complaints about panels.

Next 2/3 weeks is a really profound opportunity. Smart people all around you.Faculty to ask.
Really great solutions.
We'll get feedback to you at 
Not seen - what will you do as a class.
Don't know if 70 /2 
or 50 /50
Get together how you want to convey
Bryce: If Ray K would stop coming back after his movies [laughter]
If you find 5 want - unfair for us to react.
Lots of mechanisms. Voting
Hold on \"Zen\"
Unconference -you could do it yourselves.
Let's pick Sundays from 5-6. You could easily do that.
Marko: On Sundays we were writing ETIRs.
Salim: You are not choosing specific courses of action as a group.
Zain: Vote now.
Salim: No. You can stick around to do that.
Zain: Can we have a vote on questions now.
Bryce: Up until now - I promise you - we have not had time to meet.
Looking at the schedule - monday night, I propose.

: We have at least 7 things on Monday night.
Bryce: Maybe we need to have time blocked out.
Chiara: Monday morning at 9.
Brad: Last year - Saturday and Sundays all booked.
Gary: Regarding time for all of us. Get rid of \"me too\" issue.
A movement - replying to all SU, \"me too\"
Just reply to person asking the question.

Alison: Point is to create annoying volume.
Salim: You need to get together how you make considered requests.
Survey monkey.
How many people want to get this done.

Sasha: We've got 3 weeks done.
I understand merits of team project.
Don't want to miss opportunity to do something great.
Awesome opportunities - impossible to do in free time.
Dhuval: Can we write alternative project proposals?
Salim: This institution was funded and created, many by scholarship to work on these problems.
Many of you are looking at side projects.
SU will be judged on team projects.
Suggest you guys together as a group.
5 unhappy?
70 unhappy?
We can't respond in an appropriate way.

Andrew: Maybe we can take - if we have team project time.
Monday 9 am will be self organization.
Salim: With that we have ended the session.
Alex: Me too.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/GIS
"GIS
Geographic Information Systems
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographic_information_system

Etherpad for collecting information and links relating to Singularity University GIS resources.

Sections:

SU Expertise
Links
General 
Applications of GIS
Energy
Health

SU Expertise:
*Ronen Amit, over 10 years experience in GIS
*Tony Lyu, helped build GIS system for disaster recovery
*John Graves, undergraduate degree in Geography
*Marko Bitenc (has a vision of GIS with business component)
*Alaeddine Mokri, developed a new app that can be applied for GIS. I am not going to share it because it is confidential; still, I will be happy to contribute. I am a research assistant on solar energy and I can help with how to start with Solar Energy as an application. 
*Rosa Chan, no experience with GIS but can help locating/requesting data from chinese speaking regions and translating chinese information into english, very interested in applications with public health (e.g. SARS, avian flu etc)

Links:

General
http://www.esri.com/

Applications of GIS:

See ESRI's site - almost any area.

Energy
ESRI - GIS for Renewable Energy 
http://bit.ly/bR4Xt7

Health
The Ghost Map: 
The Story of London's Most Terrifying Epidemic - and How it Changed Science, Cities and the Modern World 
by Steven Berlin Johnson
Tells extremely readable story of Dr. John Snow who created a map of the cholera cases
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ghost_Map

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Quotes
"Zain: Salem

Merkle: I AM MASSIVE.

Jose: ENERGY IS EIGHT TRIIIIIIIIIILLION DOLLARS !!!

BradT: Ah, yes, a question from the man with the unusual name.
BradK: ...Brad?

Alison: May I borrow the microphone?
Salim: No. Why?

BradT: There might be a pony in this pile of manure.

Sasha: No Sweden! What will happen to the Gravalax?

Shary: Humans are so cute when they dance.

Ben Goertzel: *crackle* Reboot?

Alexandru: Have you ever seen a feral child?

Sarah: Now come back here when the big hand is on the six.

X: Hitler and Charlie Chaplin aren't that hard to tell apart. I mean, one of them's a comedian. And the other starred in silent movies.

Sasha: That's what she said?
Candice: Good, but with a little less inquiry.

Candice: We're a quizzical people.

Fursman: So [female], how wide's your body hole?

===

Wall of shame:

(after Sam takes a whole bunch of ginger)
Fursman: Aren't you afraid of getting... gingervitis?

X: A childhood friend of mine had polio.
Fursman: Man, that's pretty lame.

Sam: Did you go to boot camp?
Fursman: You're not the ross of me!

=======

Wall of Candice

\"I'm a Decepticon\"

\"Does anyone else hate animals?\" 

\"Oh, Scandahoovia\"

\"If it has more than one type of chips it's a salad. Chip salad.\"

\"Moths? Oh, you mean night butterflies?\"

\"I've been known to drink syrup. I won a competition at work\"

\"It won't fit. I have an enormous head\"

=========

Wall of Michael Jensen

Fuck, this is good. (about the ETIR)

The motion in the ocean. I know a lot about small boates. I was a fisherman for many years. A dirty fisherman.

Christina Aguilera.. she is dirty! Not showering enough.

My body is saying let's go..

Knock me up baby, you don't have to say that twice!

I am always doing my magic.

\"I will approach XXX with a handful of rat and a fistful of courage\" - Michael

Almost... Almost... Almost...Ja.

=========

Vincent: \"For mysterious reasons, someone changed the settings on my dryer which had the exponentially unpleasant result of all my laundry being shrunken... 

Ralph: \"The atomic mass unit is... Blaahhhha..\"

EK: \"How do we educate people to be inspired by space?\"
Buzz Aldrin: \"Hollywood!\"

The Moffet sheriff when finally (after 40min of detaining our car in the gate) lets us go:
\"Be excellent to each other\"

Anonymous conspiracy mass-email: \"You are the individuals that have been selected for the new Noah\u2019s Ark. Have you not wondered why certain faculty refer to each other as \u201cco-conspirators\"?\"

SJ: \"You are fired\"
Sam: \"I'm the worst Australian..\"

Salim: \"some of you marked you are happy with the cafetiria food. Rrrr..eally???\"

Andrew Hessel: \"it's not about missile defense, it's about sniffle defense\"

Chiara from Italy: How do you say \"incest\" in english?
Alex: Fun?

BradT: \"How to make a baby in 9 months with things you have around the house\"

BradT: I always have problems falling asleep at airplanes. Firstly because I sleep nude. 

Alexandru: Why do you call them a broker? Because when you speak to them you go broke.

Regarding Dean Kamen's super jumper that allows a soldier to jump 5 stories high:
Stephen Colbert: Haven't you just encouraged our enemies to make six story buildings?

San: Just push the damn button. (What Russians say in lieu of a countdown)

Rod: GPS is training to control us: Turn left. Pull the trigger now.

Our group doesn't believe in diagrams or charts, just cold hard facts.

Hunt for Bin Ladin: Experts agree Al Queda leader is either dead or alive.

After being show an image of a 103 car pile: What's the lesson from this? People shouldn't drive!

Photo of street begger with cup and sign saying: \"If you fear change, leave it in here.\"

David H: No we don't. (responding to instructors comment that we encourage disagreement).

You should have no more than 4 children. Why? Because the fifth will be Chinese.

It's like Jim told us: Anything is possible . . . except small windmills.

Brad: (during boot camp) Oooh, clover patch!

Andrew: Command-S, it is the future.
(igniting1)

Andrew, showing a slide with cows: This is relaxing to me
(igniting2)

Salim: I would like to see your free-will presentation 
Andrew: So would I
(igniting3)

Javier: I am hungry for a proper meal. I think I'll order pizza.

Rosa: A number of rats have to die in space 
(cancer research meeting)

Sam: Wouldn't that be the worst, if you could send a message to your past self but could only send it in the form of a poorly-disguised Nigerian chain letter?

Regarding sex and circumcision, uncircumsized as having more feeling:
Jason: \"I can't imagine it feeling any better\" 

Connor: Why is it the human body has only one chin?

Rosa: I'm sorry, I am not a native english speaker. Please define 'eat'?

KIdist: \"We are going to start wearing meat and shitting plastic\"

Alison \"SU is a virus that you want to catch\" 

Alison: \"If we could spread confidence like Emem's pink eye, we could change the world tomorrow\" 

Emem: But how do we make this viral?
Zain: What, like your conjunctivitis?

SJ (writes): Greta work guys! 
SJ (corrects): Great not greta ;) 
EK (replies): Maybe Chiara's italian accent is contagious! 

Yossi Vardi: Business plans are a sub-genre of science fiction. They are similar to sausages, you are willing to eat them only if you didn't see how they were made.

Yossi Vardi: After fake 3000 orgasms with demos i cant make anymore

Tigist: We need to be focused
Ronen: Two focus!

At Autodesk, disassembling the CAD motorcycle on the multitouch screen...
Unnamed male: You are forgetting about the nuts
Unnamed female: I never neglect the nuts

Dan Barry: Well, I'm going to put on some long pants and play some Starcraft.

Alison to David Roberts: \"David, you were being totally slutty last night.\"
David says seriously \"Oh no, I felt I was being slutty\" 

Julielynn Wong: \"It's not worth dancing if it's not dirty.\"

Erez during Q&A at the end of Patri Friedman's talk about The Seastead Institute - 
\"In history many bad ideas became popular, it doesn't mean that we should do them. For example, the Nazis...\"

\"I made a girl believe for an entire year that I have a glass eye\" - Erez

In response to Javier asking if anyone had been slapped by a girl:
\"I've been slapped by a tranny, does that count?\" -Brad
\"I've been strapped by a tranny, does that count?\" -Alison

\"ALL OF THE BILLIONAIRES ARE HAPPY THAT GAY MARRIAGE IS LEGAL!\" Tony

Ola: Can I have your card?
Garret Lisi: I don't do paper

Ralph Merkle (when asked when can we have another nanotech workshop):
\"It has to be before August 13th, when the demo software turns into a pumpkin\"

Derek: It's putting lipstick on the chicken at this point.
Robert: It's putting lipstick on the PIG. What is wrong with you people?

Dmitriy: \"If you want me to talk you listen\"

Zain: \"Forgive the British accent, but I really liked Willow GARE-udge...\"
...
Salim: \"If you can say GARE-udge, I can call you Zen\"
Zain: \"OK, SALE-em\"

Sasha: \"I think it's a good idea--well, not a good idea, sorry, what I'm trying to say is...\"

EK: Maybe your brain will function slowly
Brad Tempelton: It already does

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Open-Allure
"Links for Open Allure
Open source Voice-and-vision enabled educational software

*Project Homepage
*http://openallureds.org

*YouTube channel
*http://bit.ly/openallure

*Use in Brazil
*http://bit.ly/b3m8tH

How to Make Content:

*Prezi - presentation software
*http://prezi.com/

*The Screencasting Handbook
*http://thescreencastinghandbook.com/aboutcontact/

Things that will make Open Allure even better:

*Loquendo TTS
*http://www.loquendo.com/en/demos/demo_tts.htm

*Khan Academy
*http://www.khanacademy.org/
*http://www.khanacademy.org/faq.jsp
*(see How do you know that the Khan Academy is effective?)

Other approaches to on-line / digital learning:

*Mediaroots (Zain)
*http://mediaroots.info/

*Lynda
*http://www.lynda.com/

And off-line

*Quick Calculus
*http://www.amazon.com/Quick-Calculus-Self-Teaching-Guide-2nd/dp/0471827223#reader_0471827223

As an ETIR statement:

We addressed the Grand Challenge of Education.
Specifically, we worked on the problem of on-line collaborative learning.
We considered how exponentially advancing technologies, such as voice recognition and text-to-speech could help provide personalized education on demand.
Our team decided to focus on development of a collaborative on-line learning application/platform.
Because this is an important step toward a globally sustainable free education system.
And our result was Open Allure.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/sky
"What do you think
makes the sky blue?

The color of sunlight ; True. Sunlight contains blue light. But clouds are white when the sun shines on them. What feature of the sky makes it blue?
The color of the air ; Does the moon appear blue at night? It would if the air was blue.
Something else ;; Correct.

The sky is not always blue.

It is black at night. ; So the blue color requires sunlight.
It is orange at sunset. ; So the blue color requires the sunlight to pass through relatively little, clean air.
It is white or gray on a cloudy day. ; So the blue color depends on the air not being full of condensed water.
It is blue at midday on a clear day. ;; And moreover, it is blue in every direction.

What does this tell us
about the blue light
coming from the sun?

It is reflected ; No. This would cause the blue color to be brighter in one direction, just as we see a reflection of the sun in a mirror only from a certain angle.
It is refracted ; No, like reflection, this would cause the blue color to bend in one direction, just as we see the blue color in a rainbow only from a certain angle.
It is scattered ;; Correct.

Air absorbs some of the blue light from the sun.
That light is then radiated in random directions.

This is called Rayleigh Scattering ; after the English physicist Lord Rayleigh
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rayleigh_scattering Learn more];
[input];

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Aug6-ETIR-Presentations
"Friday
8/6/2010
ETIR Presentations

Order of the teams will be randomly selected at 2:30.

2:23 about 17 students and 1 faculty member in 583C
2:24 about 20 students and 2 faculty members in 583C
2:29 about 30 students and 3 faculty members in 583C

Draw: Energy is #2 (eta 3:00)
Food is #1
Water is #5 (eta 4:30)
Space is #4 (eta 4:00)
Upcycle is #3 (eta 3:30)

2:34 about 40 students and 4 faculty members in 583C
2:36 about 40 students and 5 faculty members in 583C
2:37 about 50 students and 6 faculty members in 583C

The Singularity University lectern lights are ON.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lectern [we need to hack this page]

2:37 about 50 students and 7 faculty members and table of TFs in 583C
2:40 Food Presenters are in position
2:42 Dan Barry and Eric are in position
2:44 still about 50 students and 7 faculty members and table of TFs 
2:45 Food laptop shifted to lectern
2:47 Eric: Welcome everyone. Please take your seats.
We have the team presentations starting with Food.

Hi everybody. 
We are food for cities.
Food is mission critical.
Great part of our lives.

However food system is broken
International politics, subsidies
Unhealthy, environmentally unsustainable foods
Not enough access

Environmental and health factors catalyzed by urbanization.

Environment being destroyed by agriculture as we know it today.
38%.
Water, land and air polluted.
Deforestation = due in part
Methane
Fertilizer
Carbon emissions
Manure contains antibiotics and hormones
Fertilizers are made from Phosphorous.
Reaching peak, as with oil
Not only is env being destroyed, hurts health
Lack of access and unsafe foods.

Unhealthy fast food is cheaper than fresh produce.
Furthermore, city populations such as New Orleans don't have
supermarkets.
For all non-profit work in Oakland, only reaching 1%.
Food is unsafe to eat.
Spinach infected by e coli.
This morning, big beef recall.
Unacceptable to have unsafe and insecure food.

More people in cities than in rural areas.
Causes problems - need that much more transportation to bring
food into cities.

Luckily we do have some solutions.
Agriculture - 
Biotech. GMO foods.
They could have a lot of benefits.
New stain of rice helping fix vitamin A def.
We could use nanodroplets to more effectively connect pesticides
Indicator plants
real game changer - lighting.

Another way to capture sunlight more effectively.

Haven't figured out how to harness these technologies.
2:53 [applause]
Robert:
First cell phones cost $4,000.
Same about personal computer.
Today cell phone, computing having impact on billions.
Prius is groundbreaking, pardigm shifting way automotive fleet is powered.
At Willow Garage - robot that costs $300,000
They want to be a spark.
How do we do the same things for food.
Framework for success:
four key criteria
Don't compete on price.
Walk before you run. Prius was not completely emission free.
Initial urban farm is not going to be a huge skyscraper.
Change the way people think - change availability - economies of scale and knowledge
Demographics, health, land use - drive cost competitiveness.

Integrate all these technologies and further market.

Rand: So. As Robert said we are going to come up with the idea of an urban farm.
Was big, expensive, needed lots of space.
Had to be outside.
Scalable urban farming.
Small to medium size. 
Anywhere there is actual space.
Quite a few solutions:
Create an urban market- everything grown on site.
Salad can be as fresh as you can get it.
Just harvested from back room.
Minimize carbon footprint.

Hydroponics. Well studied.
Any shop could have a rack like this.
Solution chamber. Put this anywhere. Very easy to implement.
Problem is space.
This is a shopping mall in Cleveland. Loads of natural light - empty.
This is not optimal design. In the middle, you could grow food.

One solution we are offering - incentivizing people to grow food at home.
This little machine - a mini-hydroponic farm.
One on right, you probably already use. Pot with basil. Great on pasta.

In order to get others to adapt:
Urban Farmer label
Silver Urban Farmer
Gold Urban Farmer.
If you grow anything on site - silver 50% - gold 100%.

Roadmap
Within 6 months, start market buzz.
Want word \"urban farming\" to be jargon
People to know it exists. Does not require a skyscraper.
8 sq meters will feed someone for a year.
Forget idea of acres and acres.
Think about every available space being used for growing food.
Build a model of shop.
come up with solutions
At end of day - we are farmers. Nothing to stop you from growing food in cities.

Back room.
Very high end in front.
This will be your stock room. Bring to front as people order things.

5-10 years.
We don't want necessarily to grow skyscrapers.
We want people to do this.
Loads of things to solve between now and then.
By then, developing countries will be able to farm whereever.
Forget rent. 
Being rich and powerful.
Have a cover with carrots.
Be your own boss - everywhere.
Every single place could be farmland.
You'll use whatever is there.

This is our team.
Tech guys,
UI Guys
This is our main 
Sam Thorp
Derek - knows everything
Anders - Danish, business guy. I can picture Denmark and urban
Robert - MBA, Stanford
UI people - Maggie. Nice picture.
Myself. I don't smoke.

Deliverables:
- Business Plan
things you won't read
Emphasize - ecological footprint
SROI - Social Return on Investment.

We have built a hydroponic farm. May have noticed it in building 20.
- DIY Hydroponic - cost us $80.

- Architectural Design.

Finally, I'll let you read this.

\"It is, in every way, in the best

3:05 [applause]
Questions: we are all here.

Neil: Important project. Good area to focus on.
It might be good idea that you do factor analysis of where the bang is going to come from.
Not clear from presentation.
Net energy analysis.
What net energy factors are - even if not perfect now.

Dan: My question is. Obviously an important area. Not seeing one of the fundamental questions. 
Where is the exponential technology.
What are the problems. 
Which technologies.

Lot of overlap.
Energy for indoor lighting - very important. LED lighting. Cheap energy.
Also important - water.
So this is where we hope the water team will come up with a good solution.
Robert: We see biotech, energy/lighting, robotics.
Our space has these ancillary technologies. 
Our view, until we have up and running prototype, vertical and urban farming could be left behind.
Economies of scale as you start to build these.

Dan: Showed examples of racks.
Can you give me a picture of how a hydroponic garden would be different 5 /10 years from now.
Knowing those exponential technologies.
How different?

Robert: More productive
less energy intensive
much less expensive - components are themselves benefiting from exp downshifts.

Rand: Also -yields. Efficiency of each component. nanodroplets.
Get to a point where you can grow as much as you can.

Dan: Really important. Get you off \"and all these things\"
Give me more. Tell me a couple more.

Rand: 
Nano droplet
LED lighting
bio sensing
Indicator plants - that tell you what you need.
Sensing technology is a big problem

Maggie: One thing - RFID chips in food.
Want to have less transport.
Show extremely local food.

Chris L: High rise in Miami.
Local economy - who's got fresh basil within 2 min walk.

Rand: Get started.
Robert: Farm to be incubator.

Ted Selker: Big internet organization around that.
Benchmarks.
People doing it.
Even high rise.
Even outside of building
Maybe fun to have that as information resource to fuel your revolution.
I'm hearing \"everything is going to solve all problems\" need to pin down.

Robert: Not profitable -with scale- yet.
Lauren: I think one thing I saw that gives me concern overall.
Have not address developed vs developing world.
Social Return onInvestment - two forms.
People in developing world have two responses:
- people have been farming this way for millenia
- suggesting that you will replace life blood of economy.
\"We're going to replace all of you with urban farming\"
or at least work on that.

Rand: Focus on developed countries first.
We know we don't know. Try to adapt to needs.
Not the 5 of us going, \"Hey, we solved this.\" 
Understand that it is possible.
Not compete against.
Some crops.
Robert: That was the whole cellphone analogy.

3:15

[Here John had to stand up with his team giving their presentation, so we do not have any notes.]
Energy Presentation
3:53

3:56 Eric: Your attention please.

3:56 Kauser:
[applause]
Alright guys.
So. Upcycle.
What you are looking at is the SF waste transfer station.
73% of SF waste is recycled.
27% is what you are seeing there.
5 types of waste.
Diapers.
Plastic bags which cannot be separted reliably.
There are a lot of us [population]
From 1 billion

This is a very complex problem space. We've had people looking into Food, Water, Energy, and even a bit of Space. but at the end we focused on 3 ideas.

The first has to do with bioremediation: addressing problems that past policies have brought us to. For example, removing copper from water. This incorporates bio and nano techs, and is in essence a component of recycling.

Waste exchange: one man's trash is another man's treasure. This involves some AI and IT, and addresses reuse.

Third area: develop materials that allow a sustainable future. biomaterials, exp tech in bio and robotics. Essentially this will hopefully allow us to reduce waste generated.

Bryce: bioremediation.
The sunglasses are not part of the talk; I have an eye infection. Just to be clear.

What is bioremediation? The definition is behind me. I'm talking about a technology - application of organics to clean and eliminate dangerous toxic effluent from waste streams, but it's also a mindset. Addressing problems from the past. Production has been thought of as a throughput - input-output system. Efficiency is measured by how much you get out for what you put in, with no thought as to what happens after it comes out.

Tomoko and Her Mother. The girl is suffering from [?] disease, caused by ionic mercury in the water. Her mother ate a lot of fish when pregnant, and all the mercury collected in the fetus, and she died at 18. A lot of mercury goes into water totally untreated.

But what I want to focus on is a problem that's closer to home. We went on a trip to the water treatment plant, and saw how the water comes in. They get the water from the municipal system, filter out the solids, into a 30% solid slurry, and that goes into an incinerator. The problem is after you incinerate you have ash with a high level of copper. If it weren't for the copper it would be very valuable as topsoil due to nitrogren and phosphate, but because of the copper, they have to landfill that ash.

The solution we want to look at is bioremediation. There have been a number of recent developments. Add nutrients to the area you want to bioremediate. Then we moved into where we are now which is genetically modifying these microbes. Where we hope to go is synthetic bioremediation agents - custom-designed microbes that can process the waste stream, depending on the exact composition of that waste stream. Craig Venter, and recent developments will allow us to create custom solutions for waste streams. We're entering a place where there is a triple line - companies are required to dispose of hazardous waste in a way that represents significant cost, so we'd save them money, and also produce benefits for the environement and the People.

Brad: Industry waste is bad. Very bad. This is the BP oil disaster.
It's 98.6% of all waste, industrial waste. This is what you have to target. What's being done today? Certain waste streams were found to be valuable...scrap metal, rare metals from waste electronics, fisheries found a new way of extracting omega-3 from fish heads, which turned out to be more profitable than the fish. Still, everything else is going to landfill. Idea: how can we expand upon these examples and make a more global solution?

Industrial Economy/Industrial Ecology. One's waste is another's treasure.
Expanding on all the industries, finding out what their wastes are, bioremediating them or using them as input for another industry, closing the loop instead of landfilling. Can this be done? Can you turn what you're throwing away into money? The answer is yes. In Kalundborg, it's already being done. Complicated graphic, but everything you see is waste being turned into an input. Most places around the world, those arrows would go into a landfill. We want to approach our friends at Corporate Ecoforum, Vinod Khosla, Shai Agassi, they are all members of it, it's an organization you have to be invited to, but it's comprised of leaders in large companies that are all focuses on sustainability and ecology. Right now they're just this organization, and they talk about waste, but what we want to do is give all these giant companies, like 3M, P&G, GE, a platform where they can actually do something and get behind it. First step is a demand analysis, would they be interested in a waste exchange system? Narrow AI, match industries outputs with other local industries inputs. We would then look at any competitors, such as Exchangebase, look at what they're doing and what they might be doing wrong, and getting 5-10 examples of targetted waste streams we could bootstrap with. Then repitch to our friends at Ecoforum and having that spread.

So the impact would be global. These companies were huge multinationals, so they would in essence..all working together, reduce the resources being extracted from the environment and going to landfill. Also create transparency, you could do research on industry wastes. It would also save money for these companies, and saving money for municipalities in dumping fees and things like that.

Challenges: anonymity. Some industries may not want to share their wastes, although the guy from GE seemed to think that was ridiculous. Logistics, getting one waste from one company to another - who's going to move it, geographic disparity. Again, finding those novel waste streams that are new or maybe need some bioremediation before they become valuable. With that, here's Kausar.

Kausar: The use of biomaterials.
Fundamental approach here is using biomaterials to replace petrochemical-based plastics. Many challenges I'm sure most of you are already aware of. Reliant on fossil fuels, generating lots of pollutants. Certainly recycling is a very difficult process with these as well, and not biodegradable. Some of the state-art things are biomedical applications, some of which can be applied into this space. NatureWorks is an example, several others. Eventually replace petrochemical plastics with bioplastics. The pathway we're looking at is plant-based and chitin-based biopolymers. One way we could spread the use is 3D printing, and exponential technology, providing biopolymers as this takes off is going to be a very good launching point. Biomedical biomaterials are already being developed, smart biomaterials change phase with temperature, has potential applications. Perhaps significant step towards freedom from fossil fuels, less emissions, and hopefully we envision cheaper products as the economy of this takes off, and the societal impact of a paradigm shift. Moving to a newer type of technology from fossil fuels. Will require novel biomaterials.

Some challenges: generating these biopoymers. Really, for these to work, we need them to match the characteristics of existing plastics. This can be done - lots of work already going on. The cost will come down as we progress in expanding this technology, and you guys may have heard of the SunChips bags that are completely biodegradable. We're looking for transformative impact. We think these ideas have that potential. Allow us to efficiently manage our resources. Develop new economic opportunities -waste is a problem in every nation. Improved health, and hopefully lead us toward a sustainable future.

In summary, we're addressing past, current and future challenges. Creating a sustainble future. Thanks.

Questions:

SPACE
[...]

WATER
[...]

easily available resources.
Use a lot.
Limited resources.
What are we going to do about this. 
How will we manage it.

250 million tons of municipal waste
Wealthy nations spend $270 bn per year on municipal solid waste.

Developing - India, China and Brazil - $5 bn per year.

10% of 260m pounds of plastic is floating in the sea now.

The Waste Hierarchy.
Requires a multi-pronged approach.
We use resources in very sustainable manner
Recycle and recover energy from waste.
Minimize what is discarded.
Very complex problem space.
Agriculture / 
Energy from waste
Space even.
In the end, as a group, we focused in on three ideas:

- Upcycle Problem Space 
1. Bioremediation - copper pipes - bio/nano - recycle
2. Waste Exchange - Info/AI - re-use
3. Biomaterials - bio/robotics - reduce

To discuss bioremediation - Bryce:

Thank you.
Sun glasses are not part of talk.
Next few minutes - what is bioremediation.
A technology - application of organic organisms to cleanse waste streams
A mindset

Problem from the past - production has been thought of as input/output,
not thinking of what happens AFTER something comes out.

Famous picture. Ionic mercury in fish mother ate collected in fetus.
Child died. Published in 1971.
70% of industrial water goes directly into drinking water streams.

Local waste water treatment plant.
Filter out solids. 30% solid/slurry goes to an incinerator.
Very high level of copper in the ash.
Without the copper, would be useful.
As a result, must spend $250,000 annually to landfill that high copper ash.
Bioremediation changes what we can do.
Was done by adding microbes -
Where we are now: genetically modifying microbes.
Hope to go to synthetic microbes. Tailor microbes to waste stream.

Clean up resulting ash, use for top soil
This is the basic process.
Craig Venter's synth bio.
So the really exciting thing about this - 
a triple line
BioRemedy(TM) - WasteExchange - BioMaterials.

Brad: Bryce talked about what we can do with wastes already in the stream.
Wastes at the present.
More recent example: BP Gulf oil disaster.
98.6% of all industrial waste.
Isolated examples - scrap economy, waste electronics, fish heads -> omega 3 oils more profitable than fish.
Rest going to landfills.
How can we expand upon solution.
Economy / ecology.
One's waste is another's treasure.
Close loop - put inputs of one industry into another.
Can you turn what you are throwing away into money? Yes.
Here is a complicated info graphic
- Kolundberg, Denmark

Approach corporate ecoforum
1 Exchangebase
2 3M / P&G
3 ideas
back to 2
on to corporate ecoforum

So first step is demand analysis.
How interested would they be in a narrow AI - input/ output analysis.
Assuming they are interested. 
Look at competitors. Such as Exchangebase.
5 - 10 examples of targetted waste streams.
Then produce platform, pitch.
And have that spread.
Impact would be global - multinationals. 
Indirectly create transparency - database from all the wastes from all the industries.
Try to tailor fit solutions.
Save money.
Challenges: industrial anonymity
logistics
geographic diversity
novel waste streams

4:14
Kauser: Biomaterials.
biopolymers to replace plastics.
Petrochemical plastics have issues.
rely on fossil fuels, generates pollutants

- State-of-the-Art
- Idea
Goal: replace petro plastics with bio-plastics
- Pathway
Plant-base
Chitin-based biopolymers
3D printing - merging wtih biopolymers - very good launching approach.
Thermal responsive - lower temp liquid, higher temp solid/rigid.

- Impact
Freedom from fossil fuels
Cheaper products
Societal paradigm shift - need novel biomaterials

- Challenges
For them to work as plastic replacements, much match characteristics.
Completely biodegradable SunChip bags example.

- Overall Impact.
New economies.
New opportunities - whether in developed or developing country.
- Vision
Thank you
[applause]

Recognize Upcycle team. [applause]

Neil: really interesting
had maybe half a dozen ideas here
Given time, interests - what do you plan to focus on and how.
Kauser: complex space
We imagine diving into these ideas - find application that is a solution.
We just have to dive through it. Lot of work to be done.
Bryce: Are you asking what deliverable we intend on offering?
Neil: Potential investors - what will they invest in?
Bryce: There are at least 3. Potential solutions, autonomous. Related.
Follow from similar mindset.
Talking about launching web portal - creating web portal.
Spoke with bioremediation - prototype treatment.
Biomaterials will be a research report.

David Dell: To me, the question I have is generally the scalability of it
What do you see companies already doing?
What marketplaces have already emerged.

With respect to biomaterials -several companies working on bioplastics.
Very focused application in medical field.
Very novel biopolymers - will also have thermal responsive materials in 3D printing.
Brad: Touched upon in waste exchange - selected individual examples.
Only one with global focus - exchangebase
Bryce: Scalability - top down approach. 70 times more industrial than consumer waste.
Despite campaigns, 25 % increase in amount recycled, still in same place since 1979.
Target more supply side rather than consumer side.
Less obvious.
Scalability built into model.
Kauser: Biopolymers are being used in ways we don't recognize.
200 tons used.
53 companies use this material. In cosmetics, for example.
In applications not in things we use everyday. 

Chris: Building on what Neil said.
Kind of difficult to tell what was problem/ solution.
In a way, leaning on everyone's understanding of the problem.
Could leverage that.
Here is a look at the problem -
Say, \"I'm going to solve the problem with biopolymers.\"
Everyone gets it. Get to the nugget and build from that.

I don't understand what is different with industrial waste.
Volume?
What is with it?
Kauser: Point noted. 
Industrial vs Municipal. - Municipal comes out of home.
Industrial has hazardous and non-hazardous.
Chris: all very vague. I could have delivered - charts, data, samples, scale.
Just challenging you.
4:27 applause

4:29
Davidad: Greeting Earthlings.
We lurk in your midst.
So, I've got a question.
What is the biggest application of exponential technology so far.
COMPUTERS
not the backbone of nearly everything that people do
I would argue that space today is where computer where in 1945
Used primarily for government operations.
I you told people you'd effect a billion people, they'd think you were crazy.
We can lead space through 1945-1995, not in 50 years, but in 10 years.
We are going to have 10 billion people on the planet.
As space becomes the background, will become a 10 to the 10th solution.
Different ways to cast 
CATS cheap access to space
BEST biologically enhanced space tech
SWARM a swarm of cheap and small - using a powerful economic model
UP - unlimited presense - telepresence technology to bring space to earth.

[applause]
Dmitry: Goal.
CATS Cheap Access to Space
What we want to accomplish - 
people to go into space - why don't we mine asteroids?
Why no space based solar?
Space is extremely expensive.
For 5 decades, High cost above $10,000/kg - fundamental reason - inefficiency of chemical rockets.
Working on external propulsion
Change fundamentally the way we are getting into space.
Vehicle can be much simpler, more efficient.
Small, personalized vehicle going into orbit.
Drop the cost, exponentially down.

need to quantify exponential impact - mind map
see how we approach problem of launch - 
components - heat exchanger - very specific plots.
manufacturing of materials - how cost of materials goes with time.

Microwave production for example.
Output of single device to produce goes up.
3D print, rather than produce. Could be much cheaper.
Exponential - change in engineering.
Today - all system we need inside the computer.
don't need supercomputer due to cloud.
Mfg absolutely everthing inside the computer. - digital prototyping.

4:36 applause
Rosa: What is the most important thing in space - LIFE
BEST 
Vision : reliable biotech and extreme
Problems: Unsustainable life support, radiation shield
Under explored biotech
Unimaginative education
BEST approaches - 
interdisciplinary approach to solve all these problems
Take technologies back to earth
We can also revolutionize the education system with a new paradigm.
Started with organic architecture in space X HAB 
Inflatable habitat challenge
Educational and design plan.
SU + NASA
Here is the list of top universities teaching space research

Open research platform in space
More cancer cells in space
Talking to Kentucky Space - develop protocols.
- Explore synthetic biology
BEST deliverables: 
Proposal to People in Space
BEST team: photos

Emiliano: A Shared Satellite: SWARM
Tremendous effect.
Billions effected.
Company to come out this summer - revolutionize commercialize space
Bsaically problem, as Davidad explained. A few big governments.
Large money to send satellites up.
For example, grand challenges - monitoring health of planet, emergency response,
communication in rural areas.
Only a few big corporations/ governments can do these things.

The Amazon S3 of Space. Infrastructure shared. Can rent.

Rest of summer: 
Technical validation
Customer/key player validation
Initial plan
Investor package - 
small commited team
Davidad / Fursman / Ankur

David Roberts / Jason: UP.
4:46 [applause]

So, if I told you you had a 100% chance of survival, how many of you would take it?
Current view of human space exploration is this: [goldfish bowl]
We orbit - connect fishbowls.
Looking out through a glass window in a tin can.
We can do much more than that.
Glass bowls are dangerous - we don't just risk loss.
We want to jump out - not as a fish. More like a frog.

Remotely controlling something -gives you an experience greater than if you were there in reality.

Happens with humanoid robots.
Watch Earth set with a friend.
Future is biolsynthetic Avatars.
Experience Mars as a Martian - that is how human kind is meant to explore the universe.
This gravity well keep us from exploring space.
A single avatar - Jason can talk very specifically how that reality can come here next year.
4:50 Jason:
We know what we are going to have in the future.
Leverage computer technology
Cell phone technology can be used in space.
Give telepresence on earth.
Lay foundation to give live view from space.
What you can do when you have a live view - anyone can use this live stream.

Here at NASA Ames - Nexus 1 in a vacuum chamber.
Skype call from Space. Talk with Space as a background
Control these spacecraft, look at whatever you want.
On last slide, look at \"overview effect\"
Hard for someone to describe - your brain clicks, you feel you are part of something larger.
Try to give this effect from space.

Take technology of smart phones - how do you orient them. How to put telepresence into spacecraft.

1,000,000
A smart phone is 1000 faster and cheaper than most spacecraft.
We can use viral marketing - 
make people realize what you can do.
Leverage mass produced technologies.
Compared to space technologies which develop slower.

Fail early, fail often.
Investigate markets, funding.
Apply telepresence - make it the experience we want it to be.
Carl Sagan said, we are all made of Star Stuff.
We are not going to space - we are going back home.
Thank you.
4:54.
Davidad: Questions.
Brad: Very inspiring. Space seems to have hiccup where computers never really did.
Davidad: Has been. Space capabilities - about 15 years behind.
Reasons - 
Space mission is so expensive, you don't want to fly anything that hasn't been
flown before. Slow to adopt new technology.
By launching tons of these - lot more risk
Emiliano: political nature. Tolerance to failure is really really low.
Way to innovate is to fail until you succeed.
Brad: Kudos for being concrete.
More specific - how do you do telepresence with that pesky speed of light thing?
Jason: Go to AGI - mechanisms that can think on their own.
Brad: How does that put me on Mars?
Emiliano: An extra thing - your brain can adapt to things that work at different speed.
Neil: Really good business ideas - nanosat -immediate commercial potential.
This set of ideas really exciting. Total space team interacting -lot of moving parts.
Davidad: Not rigidly divided. Just had a couple teams merged.
I personally am bouncing around everything.
I think we are all working on different aspects of a shared vision.
: Fishbowl analogy great. Will use that.
How do you get from sci-fi movie scenario.
CATS team: what can you tell mew I haven't heard before. What technologies lend cred?
Dmitry: Exponentials are there. What is happening in microwave and materials coming to the point.
5 years ago could not have had emitter with enough power.
Technological evolution. Idea is not new. What is happening now is that technologies
are coming to date.
: Can you provide evidence.
Add that in presentation. It would help.
Dmitry: Tested.
5:00 Eric: Thank you very much. 
[applause]
Sasha / Candice:
Water ^ n
We have a rather large contingency.
More countries
Water as a fundamental human right
All elements of life
Much as we heard Upcycle - enormous area
Tried to come up with, in time frame alloted.
Scan.
Boil down to pinch points
Ubiquitous problems.
1 billion
If you look at total population - 1/6th does not have base level safe drinking water.
We are technologically advanced, but 1 bn still don't have clean safe drinking water.
how team subdivided
Sasha: Much like everyone else - no simple answers. If there were, somebody would have already done it.
System is largely different - 
Whether sub-saharan africa -
Dependent on fiscal opportunity - that was place to focus.

Good news is nature leaves some good clues in how to approach a solution space.
Watershed notion.
Different companies have placed across watershed.
Effect, reach 10^9.
Which were most opportune.

Three key area:
Desalination. Trying to be tapped, but not efficient. Not helping people who don't have water.
Information - Mapping.
As solutions evolve, problems will continue to evolved.
Biotech. If there is one consistency, resiliency of human spirit. 

[applause]
Bill: Thanks guys.
About a year before a more famous quote [Kennedy said]:
\"If we could ever ..

Problem is salt. 
People's proximity to ocean. About 1/2 lives about 200 km or less from shore.
65% Asia, 27% Africa- those areas can see solutions.
Membrane - 15 nm filters. Aguavia - claiming 1 nm Pressure required is lower.
Power of ocean itself to cause it to be filtered.

Solar pump. 
[applause] 
Tyler:
- Solution
Say you pump 100 l in , 40 back as brine
Only take in 60 l once, no brine back.
Pump up any way you want. Solar voltaics. Point is, use less water.
[applause]
Bill: Lot of people in this space. 
Localized 10,000 people near coast that need clean water.
Declining cost may make this a possibility.
Making it affordable.
- Plan
Prototype
Business Plan
Presentation

Sasha: Mapping
Eugenie: OK. 
Problem
2.4 bn who do not have access to water. An estimate. Know it is growing.

...
Solution:
Using organisms - scalable.
Bacteria - trillions in no time at all.
Once you design, you can just let them grow.
cost of containing them is the cost of the device.

Binding event - causes change.
Aresenic -turns red.
Another example - contaminant is broken.

In the future, multiple inputs, multiple outputs.
Biosensing solution.
Deliverables:
International biomachines competition. Ripe for picking
[10 year plan]

Sasha: 
With all the different initiatves - biggest challenges are the unforeseen challenges.
Things that do effect water.
Sourcing.
Q&A.
Recognize - the broader water team. Candi David ...
[applause]
Neil: Just two quick pattern match -
for bioremediation - connections with upcycle
Mapping energy has a geomapping as well - infrastructure might as well.

Marko: Upcycle wanted system as well.

Chris L: Advancement of nanofilters - going down/down.
By nm, better it gets.
Short of putting water into H and O.
Tyler - you need about 1 m of water and gravity.
Don't know how much better you would need it.

Bill: One PSI. They have proof of concept.
Claim is, urea can break down - but let through minerals.
Tyler: At atomic.

SJP: Implications?
Tyler: Volume. In Brackish area - depends on how much you do.

Brad: Like Biodetectors,haven't seen that much. Lots of work on crud eaters.

Justin: We are looking at semi-quantified devices.
Other companies are autonomous.

Candice: My personal experience - non-genetically modified.
Our approach - as Justin said - make organisms. Combine specific
traits to make specificity. Desirable traits.

5:33 [applause - some hoots]

Eric: Send link to files.
Share with reviewers.
Just a powerpoint
Have received 1/2 of development plans.

Salim: 5 minute head clearing break.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/undefined
"
"
http://su-etherpad.com/s
"Fri Aug 6 Space Team Presentation outline
20 minutes total!

* Brief introduction
- We have 5(?) teams, each presenting for (n) minutes
* 10^10 and CATS
I will introduce the vision of opening space for large scale commercial and social exploration and will discuss the main challenges standing on the way: launch, policy and market. I will bring the solution: external propulsion concept and briefly outline the current state of the project. I will finally say what we can do to acellerate the progress on this project: 1. ETIR 2. Digital prototyping 3. Education and participatory platform for businesses. 
- \x3c\x3clist slide titles here>>
* Bio and X-Hab
- Bio?
\x3c\x3clist slide titles here>>
- X-Hab
\x3c\x3clist slide titles here>>
* Swarms
Space-based services are the realm of a few governments and a few big corporations. We propose to democratize the access to in-orbit resources through shared infrastructure to let thousands of new space applications bloom online.
List of slides:
1) A Shared Satellite Swarm
2) Problem
3) Idea
4) Technology
5) Why
6) The Rest of the Summer
* OpenSpace and AI
- \x3c\x3clist slide titles here>>

Davidad's outline, if he were giving the whole presentation:
* What exponential tech has had the biggest impact on humanity to date?
= COMPUTERS
Definitely 10^9+.
= COMPUTERS
SPACE
Space is where computers were in 1945: (=EDVAC) the realm of governments and big businesses, used for military projects (=nuke) and tremendously expensive commercial operations (=LEO MARK I). In 1945 very few people could see how computers would ever have an impact on society at large (=motofone). We have the opportunity to lead the space industry through the same transformation computers went through from 1945 to 1995. And because change is exponential, (=exponential) we can do it in 10 years, not 50.
* Team structure
= STRUCTURE

"
http://su-etherpad.com/space-exp-tech-overview
"\\subsubsection{AI and Robotics}

% [Can we make this paragraph a vision statement rather than a historical statement?
% Something more from http://su-etherpad.com/tpspace-The-Real-New-Space ?]
% [davidad: this is intended to be a historical orientation, but feel free to add a
% third paragraph that is more visionary in tone.]

In the broadest sense, the fields of AI and robotics strive to make non-human systems able to perform human tasks%
%Is this too limiting a view of AI and robotics? -- Will they just be worker tools, or the
%beginnings of a future of extraordinary intelligence and physical capabilities?)
, or other difficult tasks that are helpful to humans. Robotics focuses on the necessary physical capabilities, while AI focuses on the necessary mental capabilities. At present, AI systems are capable of solving a plethora of individual problems, each of them far more swiftly and accurately than a human could; but no robot is capable of loading a dishwasher yet.
% I would not make this point, as Robots already wash our dishes today far better than
% humans do (including total disinfection), and don't do it at all the way we do (contained
% machines). Planes also don't fly like birds, but we might say they are far better for our
% purposes.
This phenomenon is represented by the term \"narrow AI\": each AI system today is typically helpless outside the situation it was designed for. These systems solve problems such as searching the Internet, routing FedEx packages, military logistics, or playing chess. However, it has been predicted that in the future, we wil develop what is known as \"strong AI\": an AI system that nears human levels of tolerating uncertainty, and can generate original solutions to problems hitherto unseen and unanticipated by the designers of the AI.

\\subsubsection{Biotechnology}

We currently live in the Renaissance era of Biology. Molecular biology along with computer science is the fastest growing science of the past four decades. This rapid development is due to a consecutive line of major milestones that include: Solving structure of the DNA, Deciphering the genetic code, Genetic engineering via restriction enzymes, The PCR machine, Microarry technology, The completion of the human genome project, microfluidics technology and more. The vast array of tools and knowledge gave rise to a growing branching of sub-fields of Molecular Biology that include Genetic engineering, Biophysics, Protein design, Protein fold prediction, Bioinformatics, Computational biology, Systems Biology and most recently, Synthetic Biology.

In the following paragraphs we shall outline the most notable exponentially growing molecular biology fields and methods:

Genomics is the extension of genetics to the scope of full organisms' genomes. Genomics is rapidly developing in the reading capabilities of DNA which is regarded as \"DNA Sequencing\", the artificial generation of DNA polymers which is regarded as \"DNA synthesis\" and the comprehension of the genetic information.

DNA Sequencing capability is exponentially improving ever since the human genome project was launched. The first significant technological leap is owed to the contribution of Dr. Craig Venters that introduced the \"Shotgun\" method through his company Celera. An active and highly innovative industry competes by introducing diverse technologies for sequencing which may be very different in method. Although there still is no one technological golden standard, the speed of sequencing and amount of DNA material that can be processed in parallel is exponentially growing whereas the price is rapidly dropping. This could be exemplified by the amount of DNA sequences submitted to Genbank, a NIH funded DNA repository (see figure).
The vast amount of genetically available material paved the way for the Bioinformatics fields that was essential for the assembly, interpretation and pattern recognition of the accumulated data. Bioinformatics in turn grow rapidly and branched into several sub fields that specializes in genes (\"coding regions\"), regulatory elements (\"intergenic regions\"), gene expression analysis, systems biology and computational biology. Systems biology that aims to achieve the co-functioning comprehension of a large set of genes and proteins is rapidly growing as can be seen by the amount of grant funds the field receives (see figure).

Upon the completion of the human genome project in 2000 by both by the international consortium and the Celera private venture the tipping point and rise of the post-genomic era began. The draft to our genetic software was accessible to study for the first time in human history, and genes where being studied in large sets of thousands rather than one at a time.
A similar era is about to embark soon, as full genome sequencing prices will fall sufficiently to enable a multi-genome era where humanity will hold a large set a genomes by different individuals, enabling comparative genomics, the exhaustive comparison of entire genomes.

DNA synthesis capability, albeit lagging behind the DNA sequencing technology, is also advancing by a verity of methods, and synthetic DNA grows longer and cheaper rapidly. As in the DNA sequencing arena, Dr. Craig Venters contributed greatly to this field to and currently holds the record for the largest sequences of artificially generated DNA.
Long synthesized DNA is driving the emerging field of synthetic biology that aims to fabricate novel life forms. The current state of the art is a partial generation of a bacterial organism.

Proteomics is the extension of Biochemistry to the scope of full organisms' proteins. Proteomics is rapidly developing in the reading capabilities to solve the 3D structure of proteins by means of X-ray crystallization and NMR studies as can be seen by the exponentially accumulation of protein structures in PDB, the protein data bank (see figure). Although the 3D structure of most proteins is known to be directed by the amino acid sequence of the proteins, the question of inferring the structure from the sequence which is also known as \"the protein folding problem\" is still largely unsolved and is on of Biology's holy grails. However, the computational prediction of the structures are growing increasingly better due to superior heuristics, vast amount of biological raw data and extended computation capabilities, and it is widely believed this challenge will be eventually solved. The ability to comprehend the correlation of protein structure and function will enable the rational protein design and will open a virtually limitless space of synthetic proteins with properties that to date do not exist in nature. A mature protein design field could correct for most genetic defects along with the transplantation of genes via Gene therapy methods, create new genes and produce new bio materials and biological drugs such as hormones and antibodies. To date, protein design is limited to semi-random in vitro evolution methods, partially driven by rational thought and by chimerical approaches of modular construction of proteins based on naturally existing scaffolds.

The microarray technology and its subset DNA-chips is yet another disruptive trend in biology that enables a vast readout of all the expressed genes within a cell by assessing the presence of mRNA transcripts. This technology, along with the exponential advances in DNA sequencing, greatly contributed to the generation of the Bioinformatics field, and to its sub branches, gene expression regulation and Systems biology. The microarrays that were at first extremely expensive, unreliable and with a relatively small number of biomarkers, are now commonly used, as can be seen in the elevated number of publications that address microarray data, and they are rapidly growing cheaper, larger and robust. To date there is still no gold standard to the optimal mathematical correction algorithm for their analysis, and the field of microarray analysis quite active.

Another disruptive and rather new technology is Microfluidics that enables micro manipulation and experimentation on single cells via liquidous apparatus with miniature compartments. Microfluidics enables experimentations that have previously not been feasible.

In the near future, we will be readily reading, generating, transplanting, manipulating and creating genetic and protein material, capability that will enable us to reshape life forms including humans.

\\subsubsection{Nanotechnology and Materials Science}

The first tools that humans used were simple sticks and stones, native \"bulk\" materials from the environment. Certain rocks were chosen for their hardness, or for their sharpness when cleaved, while certain sticks were used for their light weight and as tools requiring aspect ratios that are unattainable using rocks. Later these bulk materials were combined into things that enabled functions that were more than the sum of the parts, such as stone axes, animal traps, and wheeled vehicles.

In a similar way, we are barely beginning our technological evolution in space and are using many bulk materials, for example the planned Mars Curiosity rover is made mostly of aluminum and uses two-dimensional monolithic computation elements. The next step, and the goal of nanotechnology and materials science, is to discover the structural, electronic, thermal, and other physical properties of nanoscale materials and learn to harness these properties to create new or improved functionality, both structurally and on the scale of sensing and computation elements. These properties that may be inferior in bulk materials or perhaps not even exist on the macro-scale.

% Nanostructured materials and nanoscale devices will be precisely engineered on the molecular scale to harness these properties. 
% Structurally, they may be stronger, lighter, or more flexible, such as carbon fiber. They may promise improvements on existing technology, 
% such as graphene as a replacement for transistors, or heretofore unforseen devices, such as graphene as an atomically thin vibrating 
% two-dimensional membrane for mass sensing (while other materials, even thin materials are three-dimensional). In addition, since 
% biological organisms are a vast assemblage of nanomachines, the line between artificial nanoengineering and nature may be blurred 
% in many applications.

The enabling factors for continued improvement and innovation at the nanoscale reside in both funding new research and in an applications-centered, business-driven approach. They may reside in a shift from old ways of thinking and an agility to absorb new technologies as they become available.

\\subsubsection{Information Technology and Networking}

The exponential nature of Information Technologies and Networking is, vox-populi, a well established phenomenon. In 1965, Intel's co-founder Gordon Moore noted that the number of components in integrated circuits had been doubling roughly every two years since its invention in 1958, and predicted that the doubling trend would continue for at least another decade. Since then, and more than forty years later, Moore's \"law\" continues to signal the evolution of processing speed, memory capacity, hard-
disk storage, power consuption, transistor cost, and many other applicable metrics that seem to lay, roughly, on exponentially increasing (or decreasing) curves.\\\\
\\includegraphics{Transistor_Count_and_Moore's_Law_-_2008.eps}[Attribution: Wikimedia Commons - WGSimon - GNU Free Documentation License]
It is remarkable that these exponential trends have survived many technology changes, and some technological paradigm shifts, without ralenting even through global crisis or other political and economical turmoils. An industry-wide belief in the nature of these exponentials has led companies to invest billions of dollars in the process of finding the next doubling factor before the competition, and drove many to describe Moore's law as the \"self-fulfilling prophecy\" of the electronics industry. However, and even though every few years new technical bottlenecks seem to suggest that Moore's Law might be getting to an end, our current understanding of the fundamental limits of computation shows that there is no fundamental reason why computational density should not keep increasing at its exponential pace for the forseeable future.\\\\
Over the last five decades, the exponential evolution of electronics has played a fundamental role in many of the scientific and technological achievements of humanity, and has been a fundamental enabler of global trade, the increased efficiency of value chains and the onset of what is called the knowledge economy. The Internet itself, still in its infancy, has revolutionized the way we do business, collaborate and interact with each other, and the same technology, in the hands of billions through mobile phones and its descendants, is predicted to play a fundamental role in integrating the next four billion people in the base of the pyramid to the global economy and to a global society. The astronomical increase in our capacity to generate, store and process information is leading fundamental changes in the way we think about and do science. Many other scientific disciplines, including, most notably, biology, are now increasingly becoming information sciences, and the exponential trends of information technologies spread to these disciplines and help put them in their own exponential paths. \\\\
We expect these trends to continue and evolve in the short term, and over the next few decades, to show an increasing paralellization of today's architectures, increasing interconnectedness, increasing miniaturization, new human-machine interfaces, new machine-to-machine interfaces, sensor and actuator networks; embedded computational systems in everyday objects; distributed, decentralized platforms for data acquisition, storage and processing; ubiquitous, high-bandwith networks; high-quality augmented/virtual reality with haptic interfaces; implantable bio-electronics; new computational paradigms for high-performance, massively parallel computation; new computational paradigms for energy-efficient and low heat computation. \\\\
At the same time, we expect Information Technologies, Computing Systems and Networks to impregnate, merge-into and drive the convergence of Biotechnology, Nanotechnology and Neurotechnology, to a new integrated technology realm at the nano-scale.

\\subsubsection{Neurotechnology and Medicine}

The human beings through research and technology have begun to understand the nature and mysteries of the Universe. However, Space is a harsh environment, and technological advancements in material science, robotics, power generation, and medical equipment will be required to ensure that astronauts survive interplanetary journeys and settlements. In addition, operational challenges, such as the management of life-support systems, food and nutrition, medical care, and psychosocial health due to long-term confinement, will have an impact on human health during long-term space missions and more even if we think to settle and to stay on other planets or regions in our Solar System.

Since the human is considered to be a critical system of space flight in the same way the propulsion, thermal, and power are critical systems to space flight, the searching of opportunities where accelerating technologies could be possible solutions in these issues in the coming future, is warranted.

Why go into space when we have so many problems here on Earth?, it is a legitimate question that unfortunately not enough people have been made aware of the vast benefits the space program provides that increase the quality of our daily lives. Applications on Earth of technology needed for space flight have produced thousands of \"spinoffs\" that contribute to improving several fields including medicine, biotechnology, and neurosciences (The Space Place, 2004). One small example is the Hubble Space Telescope technology which was used in the Charge Coupled Device (CCD) chips for digital imaging breast biopsies. The resulting device images breast tissue more clearly and efficiently than other existing technologies. The CCD chips are so advanced that they can detect the minute differences between a malignant or benign tumor without the need for a surgical biopsy. With over 500,000 women needing biopsies this technology saves time and cost for this procedure versus surgical biopsy. 

At the same time, accelerating technologies in Medicine and Neuroscience should help to solve huge problems during the human space exploration and staying there, including better methods and techniques in the basic and clinic research, which are the base for new knowledge and the source for new technologies. 

Medicine tools that could help solving grand challenges are immersing in biotechnology, nanomedicine and nanomaterials, robotic, artificial intelligence, bio-engineering, and bio-informatics. More specifically, the broad spectrum of sensors and biotech for prevention, and early diagnosis of the health problems, new materials for radiation protection, autonomous medical care (AI, robotics, bioinformatics) for diagnosis and treatment, and tissue engineering for recovery, are some interesting examples where exponential technologies should be involved.

Neuroscience research helps us to describe and understand how the brain controls behavior. One of the critical tools is the recording equipment which helps us to study the neural signals during behavior. While noninvasive neural signal recording techniques, such as electroencephalography (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), are getting more precise and easier to operate, their costs are also dropping [MRI]. As these equipments are more affordable for the public, more neural recordings from individuals are available to study a wide range of problems. The exponential increase in hardware and software tools and the available data help the development of statistical models for different medical applications, such as personal health diagnostics.

Another trend observed is the decrease in computational time for non-invasive medical diagnosis through computer tomography (CT), MRI and positron emission tomography (PET) as the computational power exponentially increases through techniques like parallelization. Meanwhile, for instance, PET detectors are getting smaller at an even faster rate, offering higher resolution data [PET]. The figure below shows that improvements in run time alone are not sufficient to meet the computing demands for future PET scanners. 

Clipboard01.png
Illustration of the approximate order of computational complexity for 2D and 3D clinical and small animal scanners shown in comparisons to \u201cMoore\u2019s law\u201d, the observation that single-processor computing power doubles roughly every 18 months [PET]. The lower curve for the ECAT systems represents 2D complexity, the upper curve represents 3D complexity.

Significant improvements can be also found in neural prosthetic devices. Using implanted electrodes to deliver electrical stimulation to the sensory nervous system, cochlear implants have been well developed for the deaf to hear and retinal implants are under FDA trials for the blind to see. Figure below from Zeng\u2019s paper in 2004 demonstrated the improvement of sentence recognition of cochlear-implant users with more recent models [ZENG]. Custom motor prosthetics like robotic arms with high dexterity are developed for patients who lost their limbs. Paralyzed patients can now interact with the world with brain computer interface (BCI). The exponential increase in computational power also allows researchers to simulate large neuronal network and the resulting knowledge benefits the development of better neural prosthetic devices.

Clipboard02.png
Sentence recognition of cochlear-implant users [ZENG]. The x-axis labels show the type of device, the processor model, the place where the study was conducted, and the year the study was published. The y-axis shows percent correct scores for sentence recognition in quiet. The scores in cochlear implants developed before 1994 were averaged from investigated studies published in peer-reviewed journals. The score in devices developed thereafter were obtained from company-sponsored clinical trials that had also been published in peer-reviewed journals. Besides \u201csingle-electrode\u201d for the 3M/House device, the text on top of the bars represent speech processing strategies including SPEAK (Spectral PEAK extraction), ACE (Advanced Combination Encoder), CA (Compressed Analog), CIS (Continuous Interleaved Sampler), and SAS (Simultaneous Analog Stimulation).

REFERENCE
[MRI] http://www.diagnosticimaging.com/display/article/113619/1219412
[PET] http://neuroimage.usc.edu/ResearchPETComput.html
[ZENG] Fan-Gang Zeng, \u201cTrends in Cochlear Implant\u201d, Trends Amplif. 2004;8(1):1-34

\\subsubsection{Policy, Law, and Ethics}

We are not in a position to fully analyze the far-reaching consequences of near-term steps by space agencies and private space entrepreneurs, however we can set about to establish a context for critical evaluation of our motivations and hesitations at the Singularity University during the 2010 GSP. This is a time to develop a culture of intense questioning and reflexivity, weighing up the pros and cons of social and education value, economic and political drivers, scientific benefits, risks, the battle for sovereignty between nation states; time readiness, and the lessons learnt from past human endeavors at each stage of mission planning and undertaking. Particular attention must be paid to our obligations and restrictions, the differences of moral standing and the agents behind them; the intrinsic and instrumental values of global peoples and the core truths of our calling, in order to plan effectively and to garner new insights and knowledge for wider reaching solutions to terrestrial concerns so that we can leverage exponentially advancing technologies for the benefit of humanity, the planet and the future of our activities in space. We have a responsibility to boldly stay to serve legitimate interests as a peaceful, well-meaning people and the opportunity to explore new ways of seeing life, and space, from a whole new perspective. 

It is posited that if we are to actually improve standards of living on Earth through space by generating economic opportunity; providing access to new resources (material, intellectual and so on) then we need to bring about the prospect of rapid technological development, the cross-fertilization of ideas, new visions and shared dreams for the benefit of all human-kind and this begins with the power of the questions we ask ourselves, and the declarations we make for our future generations. 

\\subsubsection{Entrepreneurship}

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Aug5-SU-Consulting
"Thursday
8/5/2010
7:30 pm
SU Consulting

Salim: This is a discussion.
Here's the history.
Lots of executive program - give us advice requests.
Time with faculty, alumni.
We have been thinking of this for awhile.
Inside the non-profit.
Current viewpoint is the following
A separate company.

Faculty / alumni can be called on by the separate company.
May be remote SU folks.
Dhuval - setting up in Rio.
D School might be involved.
Depending on the faculty, etc. - ask, can you be on this call?
Fee involved. 
Time - 2-3 months. Must be ratified.
Non-profits must be disclosed.
If anyone is making money, needs to exposed to everyone.

Some are interested, some not.
Questions about history?

Q: How does that work.
Students running own companies.
Consultancy owned by people, will contract with students.

Salim: Yeah, probably.
Deserving faculty may get equity in the company.
Set up separately. 
Maybe a minority stake to SU for the brand.

Q: If people call for consultant - SU approved / verified.

Salim: You mean for the people?
Let's work through a case.
Say Dhuval is in Rio, they want to do biofuels.
You want to say for your stakeholders saying this looks good, has potential.
We have list here with expertise in various areas.
Someone with rockstar brain.
Let's get that group of people with that set of expertise - delivered.
Some things may go longer.
I spent 10 years building up consulting firms in Europe.
Feed the Monster - hard to find clients.
Fixed costs are fixed. Income is up and down.
Do it on a virtual basis.
See what demand is.
Need a client account manager. Delivery manager.
Have to get your methodology.
Deliver the thinking - have that rock solid.
Use that channel and process to continually improve it.

Davidad: SU Labs?

We've thought of that.
Everybody familiar with SU Labs. Want to research Stirling Engines. 
Use US as a holding vehicle. Out of that could come spinoffs.
Someone wants to be SU company.
Consulting company ratifies it.
Helps establish the methodology.
Neil has consulted for many years.

Neil: Both are viable.
Big challenge is to get quality control.
Make sure it is high quality.
Multiple other commitments. Testing those commitments in real time.
Very challenging.
Genuinely excited about it.

Salim: Rather than having internal staff, have list of experts.
Called me up at Yahoo. Fortune 500 wanted me on the phone for $500 per hour.
By doing that, they stay virtual.
Join consulting firm, your skills go out of date.
Issue with business today.

Andrew: Small group of people maintaining relationsihps.
Identify opportunities. Select set of knowledge on problem.
If you have worked for consulting before, amount of time ACTUALLY on problem ...

Salim: 10 to 150. Became CSC Europe. Did that for 5 years.
Large scale database projects.
Restructuring companies to optimize.
Been left a McKenzie powerpoint set. Had no idea what to do.
This is really difficult. Actually make the change.
Dynamics of that world I like.
If somebody wants biofuels and these three things - and you have tag cloud.
Someone's name pops up - here is someone who could.
How do you define quality of delivery.

Q: Everyone here comes from a different place - clients elsewhere.

Salim: If you are not the right people, you know the right people.

Q: So the whole virtual model meant you could not do any implementation.

7:54 Chiara G: Inside this firm, different options.
Start just with biotech.
1/ Focus on exponential technologies.
2/ Put inside big box, consultants with Space. Not much for Space available.
Entrepreneurship / Finance. Will all different expertise together.
Fund $$.
Provide SU Investors no charge.

Salim: What you are talking about there - a consulting - due diligence. Could happen independently whether there is a line there or not.

CG: Client, but they don't have to pay.

Salim: Whoa. Non-paying client is a bad idea.

CG: Year after, become part of box - become normal customers.
Would also like to see incubator.
Fund / Labs / Incubator.

Salim: Who owns client. If it goes bad, who gets beat up.
Somebody calls up - 3 people go in on biofuels.
Find, \"this is crap\" then who is the person responsible.
Dhuval [walks in] - was using you as an example.

Luca setting up IP process in Italy.
Demands on faculty. We don't have bandwidth to deal with it.

Very useful thing.
Couple of big value ads. We have this core brand.
Constant freshness of content.

Andrew: Buck has to stop with SU consulting.
If you get call, say, \"Great. You should talk to our consulting arm.\"

Dhuval: One thing for me to tell Petrobras about Dan Barry, Neil.

Salim: Key question is accountability to the client.

Q: When do we start?

Salim: Next step is 2/3 fold. Tag with expertise. Rod is helping with that. First step. Has to start organically, low key. Try it a couple times. Pretend SU company is a client. Use that to establish the system. Get real client, call in Brad. John Gage. Get started that way.

SJP: Really small observation. Never want to have S.U.C.

David H: SC = Singularity Consulting.

Salim: Considered \"Disruptive Inc.\"
SU Consulting Group.

Davidad: Not throw \"University\" into them.
Useful to have Singularity Group brand.

Salim: That is a real issue. Branding issue.
There is a 
Singularity Institute
Singularity Summit
Singularity course - at Rutgers - you get lost. People
have called and said, \"That must be your on-line offering ...\" NOT.

Q: Thinking of changing name?

Salim: One of those hassles. Succinct. Unique.
I'm interested in leveraging technology.
iPhone is mini-singularity.
We are not trying to achieve the Singularity.
We are addressing Grand Challenges.
If you called it \"Accelerating Change University\" no one will come.
Understood in geek world, can shape conversation.
If done well, we own the brand.

Singularity Summit - Ray talking. Get calls, \"Is that your conference?\" NOT. An AGI conference.
It actually causes us considerable messaging issues to drop the \"University\"

Q: What will be the process to ensure quality. Crucial.

Salim: That will evolve over time.
When doing consulting, the product you send back will make or break you. Reputation goes ahead of you.

Neil: Best practices.
People have collected best practices.

Salim: No shortage of sample documents, etc.

Maggie: Other non-profits as clients?

Salim: This institution was set up and funded for Grand Challenges.
Fundamentally core to what we do.
Maybe a discount.
Maybe pro bono.
It is the heart of what we do.

Anders: Shift in consulting from big 5 to personal, one person trusted, not company / method.

Salim: Absolutely. Think of consulting in the cloud.

Neil: 
: Really good term.
Neil: Want to hear ecosystem of opinions. Old McKenzie model is not perfect for today. One thing we need to be sure - that it really means something. High bar for signal to noise ratio. Not people going off half-cocked.

Anders: Ensure quality.
Neil: No magic method. Having repeatable model really matters.
Having something that is repeatable - built in quality control is essential.
Chiara: Checking output from students.

Andrew: Noticed in team projects. University atmosphere. All accepting. Given your relationship with all of us. Your \"strong love\" 

Salim: As I duck the tomatoes ...

Andrew: A lot of people are going to want to do this. Need to have a filter. End product going through Neil.

Salim: Part of the reason hasn't been done. Not bandwidth. Not core purpose of this organization.
Starting to see this in specific domains.
Strong interdisciplinary focus
Accelerating -natural demand goes up.
This is a much more ...
Executive Program - very tightly run.

Neil: It is different.

Salim: Nature of this program - have to be flexible. Chemistry of class matters. 
90% of EP said amazing. 34% said best ever did.
We've got a good tight viewpoint there.
Need to go to full EP to get the full whack.
Separate team.

When I was with consulting firm -hard to build equity. 
1-2x revenue was your valuation.
Always trying to spin out product teams.
Product never gets finished.
All 3 kept trying - no success.
Needed a brick wall.
Maybe week 1 or month 1.

Neil: Very big difference from SU Labs and product teams.
If you are really working on research, ITS research.
Both are legit. Keep clear distinction.

Eric: Partnerships?
Salim: Example?
Eric: Existing consulting firm. Help us become best.
Salim: Not seen that work very well. Certification is out of date as soon as you give it.
Top CEO advice - call on these guys for expert help.
Subcontracting model is much more viable.
Talk to those guys about your problem.

Eric: Complementary.

Salim: How could it scale.
Eugenie: In biotech, some controversy.

...

Salim: You need the freedom for Neil or Dan to ask Sarah to take this on.
On a legal-firm-type approach.

Neil: Ratification model doesn't work that well. You need ownership of ideas.
Report to be ratified is through through the net without consideration of what the faculty might be doing on that day. Recipe for a rubber stamp or something worse.
Salim: Time lapses -need an answer this afternoon -VERY hard.
Halley's comet comes around more often than a hole in Ray's schedule.
Davidad: If I can spare 10 minutes, get $50. That's a good deal.
Neil: Not worth management attention if only $500.
Dhuval: Rather have contract, this number of hours, guarantee good product.
Salim: Rule I have here will prevent me - incubation questions, I'm your guy. But being accountable for deliverables, no.

Eric: Reflection. When I think about SU Consulting -serving larger purpose. Revenue opportunities not focus - pick the ones that matter.

Salim: Luxury of premier brand. 200 clients want their work. They say, we'll work with those 3.

:Who will want want. He needs this done. This is his budget.
This way, if you don't want to do it you don't have to sign up.

Salim: Very manageable that way.
Put in a system. Saw this speaker. Here is his domain.
Great biotech speaker.
Act a bit like a speaking bureau.
Go down for the on-line system.

David Roberts: We don't have many MBAs. Certain kinds of consulting we won't be able to do.

Salim: MBA is geared to business/strategic. We are different type of animal.

Neil: There are MBAs who are multidisciplinary. We want to steer away from straight up business consulting.

Bryce: Competitive advantage. What it is. Amazing speakers. Filmed.
Will eventually be made open - if not to the general public. Contact with speakers. Will we - say we get a consulting job. Would research we conduct be done in the SU community.
Delegate to student. They interview. Prepare report.
Or students work from scratch. What is our proprietary advantage.
We're not consultants. We've been through 10 weeks of classes.

Salim: Ethics, practice leader will talk to 4/5 people. Do an exercise. Then respond back.
The easiest type of sale is time from the track chairs.
Ray's time- quite something.
Thing that is easily salable. 
Further down chain, into delivering solutions -different animal.

CG: Next step?

Salim: Board meeting in 2 weeks. Talk about it there.
Get board's blessing. 
Easy way of systematizing people's skills.
Way to work through, practice.

CG: Good to have idea before we leave.

Dhuval: Anyone having a company starting - run for practice. Might be potential client.
Oh, TPs, sure.

Salim: Thanks folks. We will act with Chiara as the point person.
Meeting over.
8:32

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Space--AIR--Project-idea
"One paragraph describing our project idea:

Let's agree on the different pieces:

\"Willow Garage\" for AGI (yara,carlos, ronen)

Our project idea is a research and development institution with a novel approach to Artificial General Intelligence, based on the funding and business model of Willow Garage, and
begining with a practical application of humanoid telepresence robots and evolving with an increasingly autonomous capability for space.

Developing an ecosystem for Space-AGI.

for line 12: based on the funding, general platform/ecosystem approach, and business model of Willow Garage

to advance Artificial General Intelligence (roberts, carlos [it's not the goal, symbiotic relation], Jan and ronen [doesn't like \"AGI\" after 4 weeks call it something different]),
based predominantly on a novel approach to perception (yara,carlos, Jan, ronen)
The new AGI model offers an operating system for robots (carlos, roberts, yara, Javier)
The new AGI model offers a perception operating system for robots (Jan, yara, ronen)
robots can be used in environments humans can not or should not operate in (carlos, ronen)

AGI \"Willow-Garage\": Developing an ecosystem for Space-AGI. (roberts,
The software for robot hardware. (The Microsoft of robots.) (Yara, Javier, ronen)
Presenting a platform for AGI research that is 
based on integrating , analyzing, and comparing different current approachs to the AGI problem. (roberts, javier)
Novel hybrid approach to be applied in space and space problems. (javier)

Novel approach to AGI based

Presenting a platform for AGI research that is based on integrating , analyzing, and comparing different current approachs to the AGI problem, and come up with a novel hybrid approach that could be applied in space and space problem solutions from our current understanding of the space challenges.

Any comments?

J:
\"A new research and development institution based on the model of Willow Garage to advance Artificial General Intelligence beginning with practical application of humanoid telepresence robots and evolving with an increasingly autonomous capability for space.\"

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Pad-name
"
Welcome to EtherPad!

This pad text is synchronized as you type, so that everyone viewing this page sees the same text. This allows you to collaborate seamlessly on documents!

"
http://su-etherpad.com/openspace-technical-questions
"Technical Questions for OpenSpace

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Jul20-Bela-Nagy
"July 20, 2010 
Bela Nagy
Santa Fe University
Slides: http://bit.ly/bzLpvj

Building an open source database for exponential-related data....

PCDB.santafe.edu

Moore's Law is a subset of Sahal's Law
http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/Interpack_0705_Holt.pdf

Harddisk drive capacity, memory capacity, photovoltaics cost, ethanol in Brazil cost, beer in Japan cost

Not only cost but production

Log vs Log is a power function - Wright's Power Law progress function (Average yearly unit price vs cumulative production volume)
Wright noticed this for airplanes

Devendra Sahal (1979), \"A Theory of Progress Functions\"

the exponential growth of production coupled with exponential progress (Moore) leads to a power law progress function (Wright) - first to publish this idea

x(t) = exp(gt)
y(t) = exp(-mt)
g/m - must plot to see if true....

couple years ago, European guys discovered independently but didn't site despite having the same conclusion

plot of 60+ trends, created linear plot (not fit, just naturally lie on the line)

Bela tried to find Sahal, but only found people looking for Sahal. Found his cousins and they were also looking for him. They asked him to help find him.

only two forecasting procedures that agree with Sahal are Moore and Wright...

[ref]
[ref]
link: Sinclair et al. 2000 http://www.jstor.org/pss/2634906
Nordhaus 2009 pdf: http://nordhaus.econ.yale.edu/documents/LearningPerils_v8.pdf

How do you test if your forecast is accurate?
Depends on 
Target year
Origin year

Plot X: Origin Year, Y: Target Year, Z: Error orders of magnitude
Eventually get orders of magnitude errors (moore's error mountain) - upwards of 3 orders in recent years using Moore's data
Can use Goddard's error calculation, less than 1 order of magnitude

IT Exponentials become superexponentials (doubling time is shrinking)

"
http://su-etherpad.com/SPACE-TP-AI---Robotics--preliminary-ideas
"AI & Robotics in Space, preliminary ideas

This gathers the set of ideas produced on the night of the 27th Aug., including a brief description and the opportunity they represent within the space mission.

5yrs

-Probes
Probes are small robots ejected from space vehicles that sense the environment.
-Satellites
Nano
Remote sensing
Communications
Probe filled
-Brain Machine Interface (BMI) with partial perception
-Enhancement in BMI technology will allow for a richer human multisensory experience to remotely sense the environement through the robot. A limited amount of human senses can be assessed by computing technology (e.g., vision, hearing)
Swarms
Connected swarm satellites (EK)
-Swarm spacecraft
Asteroid prospectors
Space exploration
Virtual space
Mini robotics
-Synthetic bio - single cell organism
AI driven Synthetic bio printers could be used to engineer organisms that could support long space trips, staying, and boldly (large scale) staying on the moon, asteroids and other planets such as Mars. Such engineered organisms could be used to for water recycling, food, and material generation, terraforming and human enhancement. We expect to be able to synthesize a single cell organisms within 5y-10y, a simple multi-cell within 10y-20y, and enhance humans with regard to space (radiation, microgravity, ec') in 20y-30y. 

Remote planetary sensors
-Remotely Piloted Planetary Aircraft
Unmanned Air Vehicles used to expore planets.
Enhanced sensing (thermal imaging)
Remotely piloted humanoid robots
- Self reconfiguring, self healing robots:

- Nature inspired cooperative swarm of robots for planetary surface exploration:

As biologically-inspired approaches to robotic systems are becoming more common, novel bottom-up designs for teams of robots have been developed. The so called robotic swarms exhibit cooperative, autonomous, intelligent behavior. Their potential has been investigated on interesting applications such as disaster mitigation, in which a Swarmming Micro Air Vehicles Network (SMAVNET) is used for establishing an ad-hoc wireless communication relay [ref]. By implementing nature-inspired low-level local rules, this approach has great prospects of serving as a cost-effective alternative to current rovers, which are much more expensive and very limited on the effective area they are able to cover in space missions. [ref] http://lis.epfl.ch/research/projects/SwarmingMAVs/

10 yrs
Automatic launch??
Robotic life seeking machines 
for titan, europa, mars - 
-Autonomous Mars rover - an autonomous system would significantly improve the efficiency of a rover, removing the requirement for manual low level remote guiding, which, given communication time, slows down operation. Instead, the rover would be given high level instructions, and would be able to make intelligent decisions as to how to perform thise instrucions locally. (Santiago is working on this one)
Intelligent closed life support system for the moon
Autonomous humanoid robots (Santiago is working on this one)
-BMI, full perception
Full-immersion BMI will enable lossless real-time connectivity to computing systems. Human brains can be connected so that all senses can be served and read by means of electronic computing.
Ships for humanoid robots
-Billions of smart dust, particle deployed in mars surface collecting (and transmitting) data on chemical constitution, earthquakes, etc

Non-Human AGI
Nano micro cellular repair
Full robot perception full humanoid senses
Automated scientific experimentation of soil samples on the Moon
-Real world resolution of virtual worlds - Full immersion visual-auditory virtual worlds will reach the resolution and richness of the real world. (Ref?)

20yrs
Vehicle and planes for robots and avatars
Robots for asteroid mining
-Reverse engineering the brain - To see inside, model and simulate its regions, to understand its operating principles.
Nanobots
- Synthetic bio - simple organisms (see 5y section)
Full immersion virtual reality - 
-This virtual reality will incorporate the five senses and exceed the richness of \"real\" reality.
-Memory and experience sharing - The ability to share experiences with other minds instantly. 
-Human mind in hardware
This is the movement of human thinking off of wetware (biology) and onto hardware. This powerful capability allows human minds to be backed up and moved at the speed of light.
-Biosynthetic body
This is a body, built with designed DNA, which a human remotely operates and perceives through hardware.
-Human AGI
Developed by fully reverse engineering the brain, HAGI is Artificial General Intelligence that mimics the thinking of the human brain, with the same thinking process as the human brain.
Robotic colonies of self replicating machines
Biosynthetic avatar
Biosynthetic body
-Human body 2.0 - . It consists of a nanotechnological system of nourishment and circulation--obsolescing many internal organs--and an improved skeleton. Billions of nanobots will travel through the bloodstream destroying pathogens, correcting DNA errors, eliminating toxins and performing other tasks to improve our well-being (Ref: Singularity is Near)
Brain backup
Automated 3d scanning and printing in Mars
-Organic Robots: Organism like robots, that have the capability of self replicating, repairing, and have more \"natural\" like movement. These can be used to explore new environments, and act as an artificial life form with the possibility of having limited lifespan according to the mission specified. (Yara)

30 years

supercomputers/ datacenters to collect/store/analyse space data 
+ analyze space data 9storms/star birth/ radiations levels/ flares/ temp): As computers gain more processing power, and are eventually able to posses an artifical intelligence, they will be capable not only to handle large amount of data, but be able to classify, analyze and derive useful information. Data Centers in space act as data collectors (temperature variations, radiation, star lifecycle, ...), processors, and information output devices that can give us insights about space life. (Yara)

nanno + robots for mars/moon terraformation (Santiago is working on this one)

Full humanoid robotic cognition
Terraformers
Self replicating robots sent to asteroids (Santiago is working on this one)
Nanorobots for mars, moon, terraforming (Santiago is working on this one)

-Collective robotic intelligence
Individual super human intelligences can be connected to work, experience, explore and live in collectives, swarms and other forms of distributed organizations. High-speed connectivity and communication across broad distances allows for covering vast territory of specific planets, inter-planetary regions, as well as (parts of) galaxies (\"Space Intelligence\", Space 3.0).
-Super human intelligence, plus super human intelligence built by SHC
A new form of intelligent agent implemented with a synthetic, organic or non-organic form factor will provide autonomous robotic space exploration. Super human intelligence provides significantly higher information processing, problem solving capabilities, as well as communication characteristics with other intelligences such as robots, networks, satellites and humans. Human intellect can be uploaded remotely, augmented by means of enhanced perception/sensing, and experienced individually as well as collectively. Super Human Intelligent robots for space exploration provide the benefit to be resistent to adverse conditions within space such as extreme temperatures, radiation, toxins (see \"Human body 3.0\"). By default, they don't require oxygen, food, sleep, sunlight and can be designed to be of higher emotional/psychological robustness compared to humans. Psychological, social and bodily characterisitics can be dynamically shaped to be optimal for individual space missions and can be adapted over time. 
-Human body 3.0 - A complete overhaul of our physical bodies based on advanced molecular nanotechnology. We will be able to rapidly alter our physical form at will via foglet-like nanotechnology. Foglets are nanobots that are able to link together to forma great variety of structures that can quickly change their organization and properties.
Self replicating earth life support systems
Synthetic bio, complex organisms (including human enhancement)

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"
http://su-etherpad.com/Jul30-Robot-Mobile-Phone
"\"Be There\"
A telepresence company

Contents:
*Initial Idea
*Use Cases
*Store Concept
*Merchandising
*Competitors

Initial idea:
Friday
7/30/2010
6:00 pm

Robot Mobile Phone Accessory
A Roomba-style base for your cell phone

http://www.cellbots.com/

Could this be to robots what the Altair 8800 was to PCs?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altair_8800

http://www.irobot.com/

Idea is to have an accessory for a mobile phone which makes it independently mobile.

The phone provides the eyes, ears, communication and brains to control the device which carries the phone from place to place yielding telepresence.

Here are some related links:
http://singularityhub.com/2010/07/12/your-mobile-phone-becomes-a-robot-with-cellbots-video/
You can build your own robot shell for less than $50! Check out some of their many phone-robot hybrids in the videos below.

http://www.mobile-ent.biz/news/29985/Robot-phones-invade-Japan

iRobot Roomba 4900 Self-Charging Drive-On HomeBase 3 Similar
iRobot Roomba 4900 Self-Charging Drive-On Home Base 
original quality assurance 
efficient delivery door to door safely!...
Min. Order: 12 Sets

FOB Price: US $52-69
http://www.alibaba.com/showroom/robot-base.html

BrightCom Enables Mobile Telepresence with Sprint 4G
May 25, 2010 | Chris Payatagool
http://www.telepresenceoptions.com/2010/05/brightcom_enables_mobile_telep/

Use Cases:
1. check on kids/nanny from work
2. attend meeting from home
3. attend conference from home (multiple calls to same phone)
4. visit museum after hours
5. visit and shop in store after hours
6. visit with relatives / friends
7. spy on people

Later/additional product offerings:
Other mobile phone accessories -
pole to lift to eye level
easier to hold external controls for iPhone games

Store Concept
\"Be There\" stores are hubs for telepresence technology demos.
Cafe areas in stores are linked via full-size video imagery to stores or other interesting locations in distant cities.
Objects scanned in one location can be 3D printed in another.
A shared \"shadow wall\" permits the shadows from two locations to \"meet\".

Merchandising
T-shirt / bumper sticker: 
\"I'm going to Be There.\"

Competitors
http://anybots.com/#front

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Jul26-Team-Project-Plenary
"Monday
7/26/2010
2:30 pm

Team Project Plenary

This morning's notes:
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul26-Anticipating-and-Influencing-the-Future (~1300 lines)
http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul26-Build-Your-Own-Biotech (111 lines)

Gapminder Desktop Download
http://www.gapminder.org/downloads/

2:33 [Lauren takes a count ...]

2:34 OK, let's get started.
Worked on your teams.
First pass on ETIR. Great first step.
Once you get into individual team projects, communication between teams stops.
Lots of opportunities within team project that might be useful to other teams.
Open up communication lines.
Things you have seen in your research.
Strategize what you have seen - relate to things which may or may not have to do with your project.

John Gage. Projects in sub-Saharan Africa.
Realities of $1 / day. What happens when you double, triple that income.

After that - teams / tables by topic.
We have 10 out of 12 topics selected.
What are the problems in that $1 a day
Energy/cooking
water
food/ag
communication
health
education
poverty reduction
Sanitation - more along the line of latrines, not upcycling
housing
women
+ two tables for those not enthused - or other ideas really important.

So, first 45 min - what are problems in that theme.
Then in second half, work together to figure out 1/2/3 solutions to roll out.
Affordable.
Hard hard hard economic limitation.
Welcome John Gage.

2:38 [applause]
John: Haven't seen much of me yet.
Working with graduate students.
Drop cost, founded SUN 
Unfortunate, from Berkeley, SUN is \"Stanford University Network\"
Reduce cost - 
Faster
Cheaper
What does matter is THE NETWORK.
Everything connected is new.
Do not get all Macs. Or all PCs. or other versions of 1970s technology.
Nothing not invented in 40s/50s/60s
Everything is about to change.
No more keyboards. That is a big deal.
550 million subscribers have a cell phone. China mobile.
Last thing you want in China is Apple with iPad.
You want tablets at $100. Open system - to innovate without asking permission.
For us, going from 0 to $20 m.
Need tools.
Techno geekish people - supercomputer runs the simulation, fly it.
Nothing has changed. That's what an iPad is - a window into the network.
Becoming civilized. I can talk. I don't have to fiddle very much.
I can do what normal people do: talk to my mother. She doesn't have to do anything new.
Far more natural.
It is going to explode.
Put a different context on what you have been discussing.
Way to get people to think ahead.
Go to the boundary. Assume something that costs a lot today costs nothing.
Assume there is a network.
A few Trillion later, there is a network.
The most remote person in China can be on the network.
This guy in China has built towers in the most remote areas.

You can change the services you provide.
\"A supercomputer on your desktop\"
They are that fast. Who knew. We guessed. It allowed people to expand their design criteria.
I am not a $1 a day person.
I am going to show you a tool that is simple, let's you go to $1 a day.
Explain where things have gone over the last 200 years.

Hans Rosling.
Prof. Pub Health at Karolinska
Poor, 35 yr life expect
Sweden - in 1800.
25% infant mortality.
Forceps - Swedish
Washing hands - Swedish
Massive changes of simple changes to public health.
Want to show you something Rosling built.
May get his son on Thursday morning.

Just a graphical way of looking at data.
There is an agenda here
Get statistics open everywhere.
How many kids died in Washington DC.
There is a number.
If you could see the number, people would change their behavior.

this chart -
Wealth and Health.
Back to 1800.
These are phony numbers. How many had life statistics? Sweden and Austria.
People have done the best to guess.
As I run this forward.
I should tell you who are the countries -- at the front UK, France.
Orange are rich - OECD - \"the country club countries\"
TOP life expectancy in 1821 was 40 years.
Size of country is the size of the bubble.
As it runs through the years, you will see stories being told.
Bump up in life expectancy.
Notice 1870s
Notice nobody is moving down here.
200 countries being tracked here.
A few have moved up.
By 1923 - Sweden at 63 yr life expectancy.
Australia
US
All these rich countries moving up.
Down here, in China, 32 years.

Salim: Axes again?

X is wealth
Y is life expectancy at birth
What is buried in here is child mortality

Let's go eat the babies. That was a shocker in 1726.
This is an attempt to show how things moved.
Data from world bank.
War took toll.
China dropped during \"Great Leap Forward\"

Average life expectancy in China: 73 in 2006.
Notice the rich in Botswana - live as well as Switzerland.
If poor, way down here.
Break each of these balloons
Remember AIDS.
Keep going to 2009.
Extrapolate for next 30 years.
Use the best guesses about where things will go.
Sudan.
Compare Malaysia to Kenya.
Go back to the beginning.
About 1860, say.
Watch the difference.
Suddenly, up into 20th century.
See Malayasia - tin and palm oil.
Kenya, a plantation economy.
Then we begin - healthier.
Malaysia - richer.
In Kenya, AIDS hit. People just died.
A minister of water.
A minister of public health.
Egypt - dumped wheat into Egypt - kids lived longer.
You will know the story behind the bump in your country.
Stories emerge about policy.
Healthier, but not wealthier.
Wealthier, but not healthier.
You can isolate what changes have gone on.
Hans Rosling gives speeches about this.
Notice the clustering of people - transformation globally in last few years.
Far beyond what anybody thought.
Things are getting better uniformly.
Lots of kids/early death pattern ->
Long life / fewer kids. Places that have declining birth rates.
Fundamental shift in last 5 years.

Change this axis. 
Children per mother. How big are the families.
Italy 1.1 kids per family. Declining fertility.
India as 2.6 - above replacement, so population still growing.
Ethiopia 5.21.
Since 1940 - families with 8/9/10 kids. Look at shift to smaller number of kids.
Wealthier.
What I can say for country as a whole does not hold for the poorest.
I show you this tool
I've used this 100 times. I really didn't have the numbers right.

Let me switch to another tool.
This is just a way to get the story across.
Break up and apply - many have spent time in these worlds of $1 / day.
Look at the kinds of houses.
If I move.
I'm moving along the spectrum - $100 /day. 
See what you have with 10-50 $ / day. Roads. Power poles/
$2-5 / day. These kinds of houses.
$1 / day - here is a house.
Guy taking us on a tour [video]
So, what we can do in this house. He was showing us the bathroom.
There are some containers.
Something that uses electrons.
The walls are sticks. It is warm.
If I go to the Barn. Notion is up off the ground, so the rats get you.
If I go to the toilet - it is a hole.
You walk through ratan coverings here.
Bedroom / living room.
What you use to cook.
That's it.
If I go outside and look around.
That is the terrain.
A little livestock.
you are working very hard, just to get enough food everyday.
About 10 houses illustrated in this way.

If I examine another house at $1 / day.
that was Mozambique.
This is Uganda.
Toilet - slight advance. Behind is a catchment area- reuse as compost.
In a house, this is the living room.
These are the people we should think about.
What does everybody say here. The thing we need is technology.
Pounding corn. No resources to change anything.
Some cups.
Bedroom. 
There's the bed. Put clothes on the wall - no other places to put them.
Here is someone else's house - $2-5 / day. Kampala.
Little more solid walls.
Here is everybody - kids in school uniform.
Means pay the teacher.
Doors.
More people.
Pictures on the wall. Looks like rain doesn't get it.
Transformation - storage containers are rat proof.
Quite different.
Don't see the bed nets - kind of structure that allows for bed nets.
I show you these tools.
Street view outside.
Lot of kids.
Infant mortality is probably 15% in the first year.
Get a sense of what it is like to live there.
Designing for $1 to $5 / day - about a billion people.
Where does water come from? Girls carry water 1 km.
Fuel? Girls gather.
In one photo, some propane. This allows a girl to go to school.
Girls have to work to make family function.
I don't think I have this toilet shot - enclosed.

Endlessly fascinating.
Here is a $5-10. Pretty nice place in Pretoria.
A fridge
a clothes watcher.
Notice structure. Elevated to get out of mud.
Vehicles moving in.
Some furniture.
Inside, $5-10 / day has manufactured bed. 
First signs of electricity.
These signs of where you would go: cook, toilet, kitchen, bedroom. Let kids study.
When we break up to talk, how can we change, maybe improve. What resources do they have.
Metal roof - you can't hear. It is loud. It leaks.
On thing to think of is to place ourselves here.
I'm as smart. No tools, resources.
May be able to list precisely what I need, but it is just a dream.
Noted how innovation that let people talk.
Didn't have to go a long way to find out something.
Rwanda - streets don't have names.
First maps made of slums of downtown Nairobi were made with Open Streetmap.
My two tools. Only Caveat - Gap Minder can run on all desktops.
Pull it down. Stats come with it.
Ag stats
Health stats.
India opening up stats.

Second Dollar Street - only runs on PCS - [ref]
http://www.gapminder.org/downloads/dollar-street/

3:12 Thank you very much [applause]

Salim: Jeff from Autodesk here for the afternoon. [applause]
Peter Bloom [applause]
Never ever forget from last year.

Lauren: Question or two?

Q: Multinationals?

These are businesses. They will do a little bit.
The people in the country are different. 
Working for IBM - mother knows about that.
Find one - spend 5-10 years, move over to head SUN, move over to Google.
Look for somebody who has experience.
No one spends time in $0-5 community.
No time.
When I go in - every school in the world on the internet.
Taco Bell has internet. 
Any engineer to go on March 9 - I give you the power to install.
Parents all showed up with drills.
Got 65,000 schools wired, asking nobody's opinion.
Try that in France and you'd be in jail.
Media come in asking for resource.
Mayors.
This many people of yours. Trained people.
We want some money. And a commitment.
You, in South Africa, are going to do 300 schools.
They are business people. They will say OK, or not.

In Thailand. Princess says what she wants. Princess leaves.
CISCO is good for 200 schools.
Who is corrupt there.
No multinational can ever talk that way.
Everybody dealing with multinationals - cross hire.
Get John Chambers to commit. But on the ground, you have to work the people.

Lauren: We need to move forward.

Changes with every country.
How is your kid doing.

Lauren: I have list of topics.
you may have to switch tables.
No more than half the people in Energy can be from the Energy team.
split of men/women.
Same goes with - Rules written at bottom.

Chiara: Other topics.

3:22 [Groups reform]

For 45 minutes: 
Talk about the problem
Frame a series of problem statements for your problem statesments. 

Problems [Education table]: 
1/ Access - whether people can get it
In Ethiopia, problem with school - though free. Only a few schools, but class
has 200 students per class. Totally unmanagable. Most people in rural areas.

Some areas don't have schools nearby. Accessibility.

2/ Quality
Infrastructure
No laboratories
Qualified teachers not willing to go there. Brain drain - people who get out to university don't come back.

3/ Affordability
Financial

Break down why these problems exist.

Quality in terms of infrastructure.

Politics, Health.
Role of gender.

Higher education.

http://www.cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/967261/
Aid for Education: More Bang for the Buck (White House and the World Policy Brief)
PDF: http://bit.ly/bssB7R

Idea - Cash on Delivery AID
http://www.cgdev.org/section/initiatives/_active/codaid

Education for All - Fast Track Initiative
http://www.educationfasttrack.org/

UN Education
*http://www.unesco.org/en/efareport/reports/2010-marginalization/
*2010 Education for All Global Monitoring Report, argues that the crisis could create a lost generation of children whose life chances will have been irreparably damaged by a failure to protect their right to education.
*The Report examines who these children are and why they are being left behind.

*Six Goals:
*http://www.unesco.org/en/efareport/about-the-report/efa-development-goals/

*Useful links:
*http://www.unesco.org/en/efareport/resources/useful-links/

http://www.literacy.org/
http://www.literacy.org/media/

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/accessibility
Main Entry: ac\u00b7ces\u00b7si\u00b7ble 
Pronunciation: \\ik-\u02c8se-s\u0259-b\u0259l, ak-, ek-\\
Function: adjective
Date: 15th century
1 : providing access
2 a : capable of being reached \x3caccessible by rail>; also :being within reach \x3cfashions at accessible prices> 
b : easy to communicate or deal with \x3caccessible people>
3 : capable of being influenced : open \x3caccessible to new ideas>
4 : capable of being used or seen : available \x3cthe collection is not currently accessible>
5 : capable of being understood or appreciated \x3cthe author's most accessible stories> \x3can accessible film>

4:10 pm
Lauren: Change to identifying solutions.

Corruption in Education in Africa:
http://blog.transparency.org/2010/02/23/cyclone-season-is-corruption-time/

4:30 SOLUTIONS:

1/

TED Talk:
Sugata Mitra shows how kids teach themselves
http://www.ted.com/talks/sugata_mitra_shows_how_kids_teach_themselves.html

Transcript:
I have a tough job to do. You know, when I looked at the profile of the audience here, with their connotations and design, in all its forms, and with so much and so many people working on collaborative and networks, and so on, that I wanted to tell you, I wanted to build an argument for primary education in a very specific context. In order to do that in 20 minutes, I have to bring out four ideas -- it's like four pieces of a puzzle. And if I succeed in doing that, maybe you would go back with the thought that you could build on and perhaps help me do my work.
The first piece of the puzzle is remoteness and the quality of education. Now, by remoteness I mean two or three different kinds of things. Of course, remoteness in its normal sense, which means that as you go further and further away from an urban center, you get to remoter areas. What happens to education? The second or a different kind of remoteness is that within the large metropolitan areas all over the world, you have pockets, like slums, or shanty towns, or poorer areas, which are socially and economically remote from the rest of the city, so it's us and them. What happens to education in that context? So keep both of those ideas of remoteness.
We made a guess. The guess was that schools in remote areas do not have good enough teachers. If they do have, they cannot retain those teachers;they do not have a good enough infrastructure. And if they had some infrastructure, they have difficulty maintaining it. But I wanted to check if this is true. So what I did last year was we hired a car, looked up on Google, found a route into northern India from New Delhi which, you know, which did not cross any big cities or any big metropolitan centers. Drove out about 300 kilometers, and wherever we found a school, administered a set of standard tests, and then took those test results and plotted it on a graph. The graph was interesting, although you need to consider it carefully. I mean, this is a very small sample; you should not generalize from it. But it was quite obvious, quite clear, that for this particular route that I had taken, the remoter the school was, the worse its results seemed to be.That seemed a little damning, and I tried to correlate it with things like infrastructure, or with the availability of electricity and things like that.
To my surprise, it did not correlate. It did not correlate with the size of classrooms. It did not correlate with the quality of the infrastructure. It did not correlate with the poverty levels. It did not correlate. But what happened was that when I administered a questionnaire to each of these schools, with one single question for the teachers, which was, would you like to move to an urban, metropolitan area? 69 percent of them said yes, and as you can see from that, they say yes just a little bit out of Delhi, and they say no when you hit the rich suburbs of Delhi -- because, you know, those are relatively better off areas. And then from 200 kilometers out of Delhi, the answer is consistently yes. I would imagine that a teacher who comes or walks into class every day thinking that, I wish I was in some other school, probably has a deep impact on what happens to the results.So it looked as though teacher motivation and teacher migration was a powerfully correlated thing with what was happening in primary schools, as opposed to whether the children have enough to eat, and whether they are packed tightly into classrooms and that sort of thing. It appears that way.
When you take education and technology, then I find in the literature that, you know, things like websites, collaborative environments -- you've been listening to all that in the morning -- it's always piloted first in the best schools, the best urban schools, and, according to me, bias is the result.The literature -- one part of it, the scientific literature, consistently blames ET as being over-hyped and under-performing. The teachers always say, well, it's fine, but it's too expensive for what it does. Because it's being piloted in a school where the students are already getting, let's say, 80 percent of whatever they could do. You put in this new super-duper technology, and now they get 83 percent. So the principal looks at it and says, 3 percent for 300,000 dollars? Forget it. If you took the same technology and piloted it into one of those remote schools where the score was 30 percent, and, let's say, took that up to 40 percent, that will be a completely different thing. So the relative change that ET, Educational Technology would make,would be far greater at the bottom of the pyramid than at the top, but we seem to be doing it the other way about.
So I came to this conclusion that ET should reachthe underprivileged first, not the other way about.And finally came the question of, how do tackle teacher perception? Whenever you go to a teacher and show them some technology the teacher's first reaction is, you cannot replace a teacher with a machine -- it's impossible. I don't know why it's impossible, but, even for a moment, if you did assume that it's impossible -- I have a quotation from Sir Arthur C. Clarke, the science fiction writer whom I met in Colombo, and he said something which completely solves this problem. He said a teacher than can be replaced by a machine should be. So, you know, it puts the teacher into a tough bind, you have to think. Anyway, so I'm proposing that an alternative primary education, whatever alternative you want, is required where schools don't exist, where schools are not good enough, where teachers are not available or where teachers are not good enough, for whatever reason. If you happen to live in a part of the world where none of this applies, then you don't need an alternative education. So far I haven't come across such an area, except for one case. I won't name the area,but somewhere in the world people said, we don't have this problem, because we have perfect teachers and perfect schools. There are such areas, but -- anyway, I'd never heard that anywhere else.
I'm going to talk about children and self-organization, and a set of experiments which sort of led to this idea of what might an alternative education be like. They're called the hole-in-the-wall experiments. I'll have to really rush through this. They're a set of experiments. The first one was done in New Delhi in 1999. And what we did over there was pretty much simple. I had an office in those days which bordered a slum, an urban slum,so there was a dividing wall between our office and the urban slum. They cut a hole inside that wall --which is how it has got the name hole-in-the-wall --and put a pretty powerful PC into that hole, sort of embedded into the wall so that its monitor was sticking out at the other end, a touchpad similarly embedded into the wall, put it on high-speed Internet, put the Internet Explorer there, put it on Altavista.com -- in those days -- and just left it there.
And this is what we saw. So that was my office in IT*. Here's the hole-in-the-wall. About eight hours later we found this kid. To the right is this eight-year-old child who -- and to his left is a six-year-old girl who is not very tall. And what he was doing was he was teaching her to browse. So it sort of raised more questions than it answered. Is this real? Does the language matter, because he's not supposed to know English? Will the computer last, or will they break it and steal it, -- and did anyone teach them?The last question is what everybody said, but you know, I mean, they must have poked their head over the wall and asked the people in your officecan you show me how to do it, and then somebody taught him.
So I took the experiment out of Delhi and repeated it, this time in a city called Chifpuri* in the center of India, where I was assured that nobody had ever taught anybody anything. (Laughter) So it was a warm day, and the hole-in-the-wall was on that decrepit old building. This is the first kid who came there; he later on turned out to be a 13-year-old school dropout. He came there and he started to fiddle around with the touchpad. Very quickly he noticed that when he moves his finger on the touchpad something moves on the screen -- and later on he told me, I have never seen a televisionwhere you can do something. So he figured that out. It took him over two minutes to figure out that he was doing things to the television. And then, as he was doing that, he made an accidental click by hitting the touchpad -- you'll see him do that. He did that, and the Internet Explorer changed page. Eight minutes later, he looked from his hand to the screen, and he was browsing: he was going back and forth. When that happened, he started calling all the neighborhood children, like, children would come and see what's happening over here. And by the evening of that day, 70 children were all browsing. So eight minutes and an embedded computer seemed to be all that we needed there.
So we thought that this is what was happening: that children in groups can self-instruct themselves to use a computer and the Internet. But under what circumstances? At this time there was a -- the main question was about English. People said, you know, you really ought to have this in Indian languages, so I said, have what, shall I translate the Internet into some Indian language? That's not possible. So it has to be the other way about. But let's see, how do the children tackle the English language? I took the experiment out to north eastern India, to a village called Madantusi where, for some reason, there was no English teacher, so the children had not learned English at all. And I built a similar hole-in-the-wall. One big difference in the villages, as opposed to the urban slums: there were more girls than boys who came to the kiosk. In the urban slums, the girls tend to stay away. I left the computer there with lots of CDs -- I didn't have any Internet -- and came back three months later.So when I came back there, I found these two kids,eight- and 12-year-olds, who were playing a game on the computer. And as soon as they saw me they said, we need a faster processor and a better mouse. (Laughter) So I was real surprised. You know, how on earth did they know all this? And they said, well, we've picked it up from the CDs. So I said, but how did you understand what's going on over there? So they said, well, you've left this machine which talks only in English, so we had to learn English. So then I measured, and they were using 200 English words with each other -- mispronounced, but correct usage -- words like exit, stop, find, save, that kind of thing, not only to do with the computer but in their day-to-day conversations. So, Madantusi seemed to show that language is not a barrier; in fact they may be able to teach themselves the language if they really wanted to.
Finally, I got some funding to try this experiment outto see if these results are replicable; if they happen everywhere else. India is a good place to do such an experiment in because we have all the ethnic diversities, all the -- you know, the genetic diversity, all the racial diversities, and also all the socio-economic diversities. So I could actually choose samples to cover a cross-section that would cover practically the whole world. So I did this for almost five years, and this experiment really took us all the way across the length and breadth of India. This is the Himalayas. Up in the north, very cold. I also had to check or invent an engineering design which would survive outdoors, and I was using regular, normal PCs, so I needed different climates, for which India is also great because we have very cold, very hot, and so on. This is the desert to the west, near the Pakistan border. And you see here a little clip of -- one of these villages -- the first thing that these children did was to find a website to teach themselves the English alphabet.
Then to central India -- very warm, moist, fishing villages where humidity is a very big killer of electronics. So we had to solve all the problems we had without air conditioning and with very poor power, so most of the solutions that came out used little blasts of air put at the right places to keep the machines running. I want to just cut this short. We did this over and over again. This sequence is also nice. This is a small child, a six-year-old, telling his eldest sister what to do. And this happens very often with these computers, that the younger children are found teaching the older ones.
What did we find? We found that six- to 13-year-olds can self-instruct in a connected environment,irrespective of anything that we could measure. So if they have access to the computer, they will teach themselves, including intelligence. I couldn't find a single correlation with anything, but it had to be in groups. And that may be of great, you know, interest to this group because all of you are talking about groups. So here was the power of what a group of children can do if you lift the adult intervention.
Just a quick idea of the measurements. We took standard statistical techniques, so I'm going to not talk about that. But we got a clean learning curve,almost exactly the same as what you would get in a school. I'll leave it at that, because, I mean, it sort of says it all, doesn't it? What could they learn to do?Basic Windows functions, browsing, painting, chatting and email, games and educational material, music downloads, playing video. In short, what all of us does. And over 300 children will become computer literate and be able to do all of these things in six months with one computer.
So how do they do that? If you calculated the actual time of access, it would work out to minutes per day, so that's not how it's happening. What you have, actually, is there is one child operating the computer. And surrounding him are usually three other children who are advising him on what they should do. If you test them, all four will get the same scores in whatever you ask them. Around these four are usually a group of about 16 children who are also advising, usually wrongly, about everything that's going on on the computer. And all of them also will clear a test given on that subject.So they are learning as much by watching as they learn by doing. It seems counter-intuitive to adult learning, but remember, eight-year-olds live in a society where most of the time they are told, don't do this, you know, don't touch the whiskey bottle.So what does the eight-year-old do? Observes very carefully how a whiskey bottle should be touched.And if you tested him, he would answer every question correctly on that topic. So they seem to be able to acquire very quickly.
So what was the conclusion over the six years of work? It was that primary education can happen on its own, or parts of it can happen on its own. It does not have to be imposed from the top downwards. It could perhaps be a self-organizing system, so that was -- and the second bit that I wanted to tell you,that children can self-organize and attain an educational objective.
The third piece was on values, and again, to put it very briefly, I conducted a test over 500 children spread across all over India. and asked them -- I gave them about 68 different values-oriented questions and simply asked them their opinions.We got all sorts of opinions. Yes, no or I don't know.I simply took those questions where I got 50 percent yesses and 50 percent nos, so I was able to get a collection of 16 such statements. These were areas where the children were clearly confused, because half said yes and half said no. A typical example being, sometimes it is necessary to tell lies. They don't have a way to determine which way to answer this question; perhaps none of us do. So I leave you with this third question. Can technology alter the acquisition of values? Finally, self-organizing systems, about which again I won't say too much because you've been hearing all about it. Natural systems are all self-organizing:galaxies, molecules, cells, organisms, societies --except for the debate about an intelligent designer.But at this point in time, as far as science goes, it's self-organization. But other examples are traffic jams, stock market, society and disaster recovery, terrorism and insurgency. And you know about the Internet-based self-organizing systems.

So here are my four sentences then. 
Remoteness affects the quality of education. 
Educational technology should be introduced into remote areas first and other areas later. Values are acquired; doctrine and dogma are imposed -- the two opposing mechanisms. 
And learning is most likely a self-organizing system. 

If you put all the four together then it gives -- according to me -- it gives us a goal, a vision, for educational technology. And educational technology and pedagogy that is digital, automatic, fault-tolerant, minimally invasive, connected, and self-organized. As educationists, we have never asked for technology; we keep borrowing it. PowerPoint is supposed to be considered a great educational technology, but it was not meant for education, it was meant for making board room presentations. We borrowed it. Video conferencing. The personal computer itself. I think it's time that the educationists made their own specs, and I have such a set of specs. This is a brief look at that. And such a set of specs should produce the technology to address remoteness, values and violence. So I thought I'd give it a name -- why don't we call it \"out-doctrination.\" And could this be a goal for educational technology in the future so I want to leave that as a thought with you.
=== End of transcript
http://www.hole-in-the-wall.com/
Minimally Invasive Education
http://www.hole-in-the-wall.com/MIE.html

2/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EDUSAT_(Satellite)
EDUSAT is the first Indian satellite built exclusively to serve the educational sector. It is mainly intended to meet the demand for an interactive satellite-based distance education system for the country.

http://www.isro.org/scripts/sat_edusat.aspx

Indira Gandhi National Open University
http://www.ignou.ac.in/
Satellite broadcast: http://www.ignouonline.ac.in/Broadcast/
[on this site now - Jurassic Earth - plate tectonics - in Hindi]

----
Presentation board - 
1/ Quality of Teaching
- Increase $$ for education
- broadcast system
self organized
govt subsidized
cell phone based
2/ Lack of Family Support
- scholarship or incentive
- community oriented / solve local problems
3/ Unprioritized Government
- international aid based on education metrics

OTHER Presentations:
Two main issues
Corporation - main vectors - any $ to $1 / day people. Did that compensate for local losses?
Also looked at whether income stream - or exploitation - forcing people to move.
Loss of bargaining power. Bargained away loss of social rights in exchange for IMF funds.
Potential solutions:
increase transparency
NGOs to monitor
Globally uniform critera
International business corp
make a market for socially beneficial goods
works in developed nations - create will to stick to higher standards
Under institutionalizing sustainability
create carveouts - allow stakeholders to bend fiduciary duties in order to encourage sustainability.
Cap and Trade for social good. Voluntary agreements. Fines would go back into community.
[applause]

5:07 Good job.
Mystery topic #2.
Our problem statement was measurements of development are not that good.
GDP as a measure of economic happiness is not effective.
Tried Gap minders - HDI vs High Income
Income might decrease when HDI ...
OK, so Human Development Index measures education levels, literacy, enrollment, life expectancy.
It is a capabilities approach. Rather than purchased/consumed. Measure how much people do.
Definitely a better way of measuring impact of aid.
How do you get any quantitative data on impact of aid.
Independent accounting system.
Annual report. Or once every 3 years.
Detail your financials. Made a case for 501(c)3 status.
Public ethicists.
Approve/not approve application.
Coming down a bit harder on charities and NGOs.
Our idea - an enormous amount spent in way less effective than it might have been.
Very slow to admit mistakes. 
Sometimes not effective at all.
Whole apparatus is structured to highlight successes.
System like 10K or 10Q, have third party, in a very transparent way do it.
[applause]

5:11
Topic was Energy related to cooking.
Defined as associated with money / time and health.
People who don't have time to find alternatives
- wood.
- kerosene / charcoal - health related issues
Solutions:
Solar stoves.
Parabolic dishes concentrating sunlight to a point.
Like a satellite dish, allows you to cook meals or boil water.
Cooking is a chemical change process. Use chemicals directly - pickling.
Preserve and make nutrients more bio-available.
Another option we had was - similar to Omega project: algae to both filter and provide oil for cooking.
Need large area of water.

[applause]
5:14
Education.
Extremely complicated.
Three things - quality/affordability/access.
After breaking that down, came up with in general the quality -
Sometimes teachers are not well educated.
General lack of support from family
Government priorities.

Solutions.
To improve quality of teaching- 
increase salary for teachers - govt initiative.
Broadcast system - done in different ways - India / self organized system.
Or govt subsidized - large LCD screens - broadcast a lot out to a lot of students.
Cell phone based.
Second problem - lack of family support. Children help family - if low income, 
so scholarship or incentive - be paid, or have lunch.
Another - education be community oriented, solve local problem.
Expecting him to learn how to make something - a needle? - still asking him to make a needle. 
Third - International aid based metrics.
All separate - different ways to incentivize.
Multi-solution approach.

[applause]
5:20 Women's Issues group.

Thinking about woman and how to empower women.
First one is Men Trouble.
Poverty.
How to make sure there is time/money.
Culture 

Girls get pregnant, can't go to school. Daily activity - must collect water, walk a long time.
Huge pressure from society to take care of families.

Different solutions -
Frame problem in 2 ways.
How to make it profitable to send girls to school.
How to make men part of the solution.
Pay for girl education - hire them at subsidized rate.
In Brazil, get $ or food for sending child to school.
Do e-learning. IN 2 years, get job.
Whole time - get advertized to while learning. Start buying goods once employed.

Give cows.
Not iPads.

Primary school - get one cow.
Secondary school - get three cows.

Educating boys and young men on responsibility.
Eric: Most important exponential trend in human history -
Women becoming more equal to men.
We kind of agreed we are really the beginning of the curve.
Find ways to trigger and accelerate.
outcome of industrial revolution - no more physical difference.
Females higher enrollment in education.
Maybe this is the real sigularity.

[applause]
Salim: Quick comment. On board of International Women's Rights Organization.
In developing countries, India/China - women are terrible to their daughters, spoil their sons.
Sons mistreat people.
If women who were raising children were taught to treat everyone equally.
Lauren: I don't like that idea. [jumping up and down]

5:27
Housing.
Problems - not allowed people to improve their housing.
One quick reflection. Imagine a very shitty house.
Knowledge to improve house.
What would stop you?
Not owning the land where building the house.
If you build a nice house, the govt could take land - never would invest.
People don't own the land. A big step to have to go through.
All these places built in towns near services, water, 
none have interest to go far away. No public health.
can't carry what they grow.
Don't have tools or materials.
Could build better, smarter house, but don't have knowledge to do that.

Solutions:
Land ownership - some owned by landlords. Elect to have small houses.
Give permanent leases. So they could buy it.

Build new markets fast. Spread new public services. To villages outside cities.
Give national incentives to companies - if they build a factory in a village, give tax breaks.
If they build hospitals, employees can use facilities.
Build road to airport/seaport.
Incentives from government - if build new cities away from main cities. 
Encourage people who live in overpopulated cities to move.

Building cooperatives. Have knowledge / tools and materials. Educate to build better structures.
Progressive building. Just build the structure. then dwellers can finish.
Prevent areas from turning into slums. If they expand vertically, they contain devlopment.

[applause]
5:33 Medical health
We focused on pandemics.
Education was first problem - don't know how to get disease. How to cure themselves.
Second step - even if they know it, don't have money for the drug or test.
Education / Poverty - then infrastructure.
Don't have drugs, sanitation.
Related to education - cultural beliefs - discrimination.
People in some culture think disease related to god. Difficult to gain credibility.
Gender discrimination.
Politics.
Government don't agree.
Solutions:
Start with education.
Find person in tribe - village, responsible for village.
Education / delivering drugs.

[applause]
Lauren: second round of applause

[applause]
Salim: are you capturing.
JG: waves
Salim: Some of these ideas are brilliant
[applause]
5:36
Water situation.
Leads to many issues.
Access - collection, purification, 
Not only an issue in itself, but something that related to human right, not just commodity.
We looked at kinds of access to drinking water.
Wells, springs, tanks, other sources.
Agric. use.
Education - awareness, sanitation, hygeine education. Handling of food.
Protection of water source.
Cycles between fecal matter and the individuals.
Could radically impact water bourne diseases.
Storage - water treatment.
Sanitation issue - looked at dry pit latrines, composting latrines ...
Not only waste managemnet.
Rainwater capture
Subsurface dams
Tube wells
Boreholes - how they relate to communities.
Solutions:
Found 2 technologies - Gonzaga, U of M.
Ceramic filters.
First $5 lasts for 5 years.
Other - also uses ozone.
Other solutions - heat plastic bottles on roof - around 60 degreeson black roof.
Water contaminated with big elements - moringa leaves ??
Use of this tree may help nutrition.

Waste of water is important.
25-50% doesn't reach final user.
2 major sources of waste - leakages - distribution networks leak. Not fixed by municipalities or users.
Farmers tend to flood fields rather than drip watering.
If cultural one - with very little educational money - could help.

[applause]
5:42 Communication last.
Sanitation team:
Most important exciting topic of them all: sanitation.
2.6 b people lack improved sanitation.
Problem is insane.
Aesthetics - smell, not as nice as it could be.
Pests and disease.

Found company from Stanford, toilet to collect waste. Treated, converted to energy, used for fertilizer.
Education = talked about at length.
Soap piece.

toilet is great technology - challenge is building infrastructure. Should be economically viable.

[applause]
5:44 OK, Communication
Focus on flow of problems, implications and solutions.
Lack of infrastructure, 
need cell phone towers.
Prohibitively large costs.

Implications of lack of comm. 
If you have better - for agric. can look up techniques, find out about weather.
Share ideas. Intelligent people can come up with ideas.
Health issues - contact experts with problems.
Marketing. Where and when to sell.

Solutions:
Infrastructure in device itself.
Couple ways - instead of towers. Maybe different type of peer-to-peer cellphones.
Maybe not for phone calls, but text.
In morning you might have 20 messages with important information.

Radio has a long history. Can be transmitted across 100s of km.
But what if we could transmit data that way?
Simple way to take radio data and output text.

Ask question.
Mechanical Turk.
Crowd sourcing problems to the world.
Ethics?
Say in developing world, someone at computer all day long makes $10 - 15.
Anyone have issue with that? Very important work.
[Everyone thinks this is good idea.]

[applause]
5:49 OK.
That concludes this afternoon. That was really good.
Lots of good ideas. I think we saw great ideas.
Do write those up John Graves.
Peter Bloom later
Salim: Ideas incredible. Well thought through - closed loops.
Obstacles and how you would surmount them.

Tonight's talk - starts at 7:30 
No taking notes, no nothing.
Soccer - yoga.

=== POST workshop 

Instant Workshop Feedback Week 6
https://spreadsheets.google.com/a/singularityu.org/viewform?formkey=dFB4YWJaTWlQU0JzcDh0Q2lkY0Z5N0E6MQ

July 26, 2010
15:11John Graves: Big paste coming at 3:10
17:36 Eric Dahlstrom: Yeah for John \"EtherPad\" Graves!!!

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Pad-One-Liner
"Place your take-home messages here.
Don't have the patience to read the entire lecture notes?
Use this pad for the one-line take-home messages of the talks

Provide one line \"key points\" description of each pad:

FORMAT: 
Talk subject, Talker: main etherpad link
Annotator: Take-home message

Nanomaterials, Andrew Minor: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul6-NCS
Andrew: Nano materials are stronger.

Modeling the Human brain, William Risk (IBM): http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul12-AIR
Erez: 
- We would be able to simulate the human brain by 2020 based on super computing capability extrapulations
- Multidisiplinar approach: Neuroscience, Supercomputing, Nanatech
- Human brain: 2*10^8 Neurons, 2*10^14 Synapses

Colonizing the solar system, Pete Worden: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul13-SPS
Erez:
- NASA and Congress aint best buddies.. (underfunding, jobs for useless projects)
- Earth-Moon equilibrium and Earth-Sun equilibrium points are natural spots for space bases
- LEO launches will be outsourced to the private sector
- Methane emission from Mars might indicate the existence of Martian life forms
- Martian moon Phobos is a desired target for exploration: close to Mars, low radiation
- Solar colonization will soon be feasible
- Export-control (ITAR law) inhibits US's space tech

Astrobiology, Chris McKay: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul13-SPS
Erez:
- UV radiation on Mars is lethal in a matter of minutes
- If 2nd genesis of life accured on Mars, it might be ethiacl to preserv the life forms, even microscopic

Rocket equations and BS tests, Dan Barry
Erez:
- 4 BS tests for rockets: 
ISP, 
Delta-V depending on your start and end point
Liftoff thrust/weight ratio > 1, 
Center mass should be above center of center of (Balance?)

Biotech that Matters: What's actionable? , Thomas Goetz: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul14-BB
Erez: 
- A 6yr traditional scientific Parkinson's research was repeated by a 1yr data mining project

Biotechnology's Darker Side, Rob Carlson: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul14-BB
Erez:- Naturally accruing photosynthetic sea-slugs can live of thcan live of sunlight
- Biofuel is currently more expensive than petrol
- new bazz: recombinant biology out, synthetic biology in
- Robot can eat biomass and energize over it
- Genetically Modified food is well accepted in US and will be come more accepted in EU

Life in the extreme: From undersea vents to asteroids and beyond: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul14-BB
Erez:
- Temperature range of life: -18C - 121C
- Extremophiles - cells that can live in extreme conditions. might be useful for space
- Magnus Larsson creates sand structures fortified by genetically engineered bacteria
- Turtle shell is a good and strong building material
- Dropping spirolina bioreactors on the moon and mars as a future food source for people

Novel Neuromonitoring technology and computational biometrics, Philip Low: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul15-MED
Erez:
- SPEARS algorithm analyze brain signal based on a signe channle
- iBrain is a home-based EEG
- Identical twins have identical brain waves: genes -> brain activity
- ECG sensors work well without skin contact (over shirt)
- Crowd-source brain wave by transmiting data over cellphones
- Company: Neurovirgin

Andrew Kogelnik, diagnostics: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul15-MED

Internet of Things, David Orban: http://su-etherpad.com/Jul22-The-Internet-of-Things
We must set robots free if we are to be free.

IBM Almaden Tour: http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul22-IBM-Site-Visit
New technology will make storage devices much smaller and much faster.

Anticipating and Influencing the Future, Peter Bishop: http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul26-Anticipating-and-Influencing-the-Future
Erez:
- You can't predict the future, you should anticipate it. You can't control the future, you can influence it.
- Disagrees with Ray Kurzweil. A disruptive event/tech is S-curve not a pure exponential. It reaches a new steady state. 
- Pure exponential is the result of successive disruptive events
- Leaders are the people that takes society away from a lower maximum towards a higher maximum, which is not in a strait line (\"Creative destruction\")
- Prediction=one future, Forecast=several possible futures, foresight=combined (\"strategic foresight\")
- It is ok to make assumptions. The next step is to challenge the assumption and not just make it
- \"The most likely future isn't\"
- Techcast (http://www.techcast.org/library.aspx) is a tech prediction site
- Google is starting a trading-desk based on their google-trends capabilities (and are hiring..). check out Hal Varian.
- The future wheel is a brain storming technique for forecasting future implications
- Finding the optimal extrapulation of the data: econometrics, basian netwrks, SAS.
- Impossible (0%) \x3c Possible \x3c Plausible \x3c Probable/likely (50%) \x3c Certain (100%)
- GBN is a common future casting technique 

Life in the Universe - SETI, Seth Shostak: http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul27-SETI
When we find inteligent aliens the protocol is: 
1. verify reading
2. notify the world 
3. hold response until international discussion

Yossi Vardi: http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul29-Yossi-Vardi-
The traits of the person you want to invest in: 
- Top expert: How do you know? friends will know
- Kind personallity: In case it doesn't work (and usually it doesn't), at least you help him out
- Their freinds reflect on them

Vint Cerf: http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul29-Vint-Cerf
- IPv6 is coming and will be deployed in parallel of IPv4
- IPN (InterPlanetary Network) is a network protocol for a satellite network
- Sensory BMI is coming (auditory, Visual, Spinal), but doesn't know about mental & memory
- Next big thing: network of cloud-computers

Willow's Garage:
- To create a state of the art privatly funded R&D facility you need:
1. Money invested with good will and patience for a long time before ROI
2. ROI is not nesecarily cash, could be impact on the world
3. Hire the best people
4. Have a clear focus on what the center is about. A bunch of smart ppl without direction can get lost
5. Open source, share with the academy and the world the results, loose IP if any
6. Set the standarts where there are none and build a body of widly useful knowledge for all

"
http://su-etherpad.com/space-bib
"@inproceedings{Kare2006,
author = {Kare, Jordin T. and Parkin, Kevin L. G.},
booktitle = {AIP Proceedings on the Fourth International Symposium on Beamed Energy Propulsion},
pages = {388--399},
title = {{A Comparison of Laser and Microwave Approaches to CW Beamed Energy Launch}},
year = {2006}
}
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doi = {10.1016/j.spacepol.2006.11.013},
file = {::},
issn = {02659646},
journal = {Space Policy},
keywords = {Awareness,Education,Outreach},
mendeley-tags = {Awareness,Education,Outreach},
month = feb,
number = {1},
pages = {20--23},
title = {{A pilot survey of attitudes to space sciences and exploration among British school children}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0265964606001093},
volume = {23},
year = {2007}
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journal = {Nano Letters},
keywords = {Nanotechnology,Sensing},
mendeley-tags = {Nanotechnology,Sensing},
number = {5},
pages = {1704--1709},
title = {{A Surface Plasmon Enhanced Infrared Photodetector Based on InAs Quantum Dots}},
url = {http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/nl100081j},
volume = {10},
year = {2010}
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author = {Tamamoto, Michael A.M.},
keywords = {Antennas,Cubesat,Satellite},
mendeley-tags = {Antennas,Cubesat,Satellite},
title = {{Active Antennas and UHF Antennas for Cubesat applications}}
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volume = {9},
year = {2008}
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doi = {10.1016/j.actaastro.2008.04.006},
file = {::},
issn = {00945765},
journal = {Acta Astronautica},
keywords = {Policy,Political Sustainability,Systems Design,political sustainability,space exploration,space policy,space system architecture,space system design},
mendeley-tags = {Policy,Political Sustainability,Systems Design},
month = sep,
number = {5-6},
pages = {649--656},
title = {{Articulating the space exploration policy--technology feedback cycle}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0094576508001495},
volume = {63},
year = {2008}
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file = {::},
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journal = {Space Policy},
month = feb,
number = {1},
pages = {13--19},
title = {{Building and maintaining the constituency for long-term space exploration}},
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volume = {23},
year = {2007}
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journal = {Acta Astronautica},
keywords = {Branding,Cultural dimension,Education,International cooperation,Market research,Outreach,Participatory communication,Policy,Public awareness,Space exploration},
mendeley-tags = {Education,Outreach,Policy},
month = aug,
number = {3-4},
pages = {502--512},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Building long-term constituencies for space exploration: The challenge of raising public awareness and engagement in the United States and in Europe}},
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author = {Baum, Seth D.},
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issn = {02659646},
journal = {Space Policy},
month = may,
number = {2},
pages = {75--80},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Cost-benefit analysis of space exploration: Some ethical considerations}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0265964609000198},
volume = {25},
year = {2009}
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month = feb,
number = {1},
pages = {24--28},
title = {{Creating a productive international partnership in the Vision for Space Exploration}},
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volume = {23},
year = {2007}
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mendeley-tags = {Cryogenics,Exploration,Mars},
month = apr,
number = {4},
pages = {381--388},
title = {{Cryogenics and the human exploration of Mars}},
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keywords = {Crystallization,Micrograviy,Proteins},
mendeley-tags = {Crystallization,Micrograviy,Proteins},
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title = {{Crystallogenesis studies in microgravity with the Advanced Protein Crystallization Facility on SpaceHab-01}},
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year = {1997}
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title = {{Design of sparse array imaging systems}},
year = {1995}
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author = {Miller, Mark S. and Keller, Tony S.},
journal = {Acta Astronautica},
keywords = {Cancer,Microgravity},
mendeley-tags = {Cancer,Microgravity},
number = {10-11},
pages = {605--616},
title = {{Drosophila melanogaster (fruit fly) locomotion during a sounding rocket flight}},
volume = {62},
year = {2008}
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@misc{Taminger2006,
address = {Hampton},
author = {Taminger, Karen M. and Hafley, Robert A.},
institution = {NASA Langley Research Center},
keywords = {Nanotechnology},
pages = {19},
title = {{Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication for Cost Effective Near-Net Shape Manufacturing}},
url = {http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=540654\\&id=4\\&as=false\\∨=false\\&qs=Ns\\%3DHarvestDate\\%257c1\\%26N\\%3D4294697965},
year = {2006}
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author = {Cooper, L},
doi = {10.1016/S0265-9646(03)00016-X},
file = {::},
issn = {02659646},
journal = {Space Policy},
month = may,
number = {2},
pages = {111--118},
title = {{Encouraging space exploration through a new application of space property rights}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S026596460300016X},
volume = {19},
year = {2003}
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author = {Billings, L},
doi = {10.1016/j.spacepol.2006.05.001},
file = {::},
issn = {02659646},
journal = {Space Policy},
month = aug,
number = {3},
pages = {162--164},
title = {{Exploration for the masses? Or joyrides for the ultra-rich? Prospects for space tourism}},
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volume = {22},
year = {2006}
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doi = {10.1016/j.actaastro.2006.02.017},
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issn = {00945765},
journal = {Acta Astronautica},
month = jul,
number = {1-5},
pages = {3--12},
title = {{Exploration system technology aspects in the exploration programme of the European Space Agency}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0094576506001196},
volume = {59},
year = {2006}
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@misc{Bekey2005,
author = {Bekey, Ivan},
institution = {Nasa Institute for Advanced Concepts (NIAC)},
keywords = {Mapping,Satellite,Swarms,remote sensing},
title = {{Extremely Large Swarm Array of Picosats for Microwave/RF Earth Sensing, Radiometry and Mapping}},
year = {2005}
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@inproceedings{Jahnichen2008,
address = {Shanghai},
author = {J\\\"{a}hnichen, Stefan and Brie\\ss, Klaus and Burmeister, Rodger},
booktitle = {Autonomous Systems - Self-Organization, Management, and Control},
editor = {Mahr, B. and Sheng, H.},
keywords = {Sensors,Swarms},
mendeley-tags = {Sensors,Swarms},
pages = {71--77},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Flying Sensors - Swarms in Space}},
year = {2008}
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author = {Ferguson, Philip and How, Jonathan P.},
booktitle = {Proceedings of AIAA Space 2001 Conference},
keywords = {Formation Flying,Swarms},
mendeley-tags = {Formation Flying,Swarms},
title = {{Formation Flying Experiments on the Orion-Emerald Mission}},
year = {2001}
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issn = {02659646},
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keywords = {earth,environmental,expedition,exploration,mars,space},
month = nov,
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pages = {301--306},
title = {{Fostering links between environmental and space exploration: the Earth and Space Foundation}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0265964602000437},
volume = {18},
year = {2002}
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journal = {Nature},
keywords = {Gene Expression},
mendeley-tags = {Gene Expression},
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title = {{Gene expression in space}},
volume = {5},
year = {1999}
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month = feb,
number = {1},
pages = {29--36},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Global space exploration 2025: Europe's perspectives for partnerships}},
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volume = {25},
year = {2009}
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journal = {Acta Astronautica},
keywords = {Baylor College of Medicine,Brain in Space,Education,Education and Public Outreach,Global space education curriculum,K-12 space exploration curriculum,Morehouse School of Medicine,Multimedia space education,NASA,NSBRI,Neurolab,Space education,Teacher professional development},
mendeley-tags = {Education},
month = apr,
number = {7-8},
pages = {1285--1290},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Global visions for space exploration education}},
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mendeley-tags = {Earth Science,Mapping,Remote Sensing,Satellite},
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author = {How, Jonathan P.},
booktitle = {MIT},
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title = {{GPS Sensing for Formation Flying}},
url = {http://www.mit.edu/people/jhow/ff\\_leo.html},
year = {2010}
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doi = {10.1016/j.actaastro.2010.06.009},
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journal = {Acta Astronautica},
keywords = {Decision-making,Exploration,Flight control,ISS,Man Machine interation,Man\u2013machine interaction,Process,Spacecraft},
mendeley-tags = {Exploration,ISS,Man Machine interation},
month = jun,
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Human space exploration beyond the international space station: Role of relations of human, machine and the Earth}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0094576510002006},
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month = may,
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pages = {87--91},
title = {{Humans versus robots for space exploration and development}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0265964603000146},
volume = {19},
year = {2003}
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author = {Finarelli, P and Pryke, I},
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year = {2006}
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address = {Montgomery, AL},
author = {Huntington, Joseph},
institution = {Air Univeristy},
keywords = {Nanotechnology,Satellite},
pages = {22},
title = {{Improving Satellite Protection with Nanotechnology}},
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number = {1},
pages = {204--212},
title = {{Instrumentation for interstellar exploration}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0273117704002716},
volume = {34},
year = {2004}
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year = {2005}
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mendeley-tags = {Exploration,Moon,Robotics},
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year = {2005}
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keywords = {Education,Outreach,Policy},
mendeley-tags = {Education,Outreach,Policy},
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title = {{Neuritogenesis: A model for space radiation effects on the central nervous system}},
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booktitle = {Space Mart},
keywords = {Imaging,Infrared,Nanotechnology,Satellite},
mendeley-tags = {Imaging,Infrared,Nanotechnology,Satellite},
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url = {http://www.spacemart.com/reports/New\\_Nanotech\\_Discovery\\_Could\\_Lead\\_To\\_Breakthrough\\_In\\_Infrared\\_Satellite\\_Imaging\\_999.html},
year = {2010}
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@misc{How2010b,
author = {How, Jonathan},
booktitle = {MIT},
keywords = {Orion,Spacecrafts},
mendeley-tags = {Orion,Spacecrafts},
title = {{Orion Flight Model Hardware}},
url = {http://www.mit.edu/people/jhow/orion/},
year = {2010}
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@misc{Outreach2010,
keywords = {Outreach},
mendeley-tags = {Outreach},
title = {{Outreach to Space}},
url = {http://www.outreachtospace.org/},
year = {2010}
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doi = {10.1016/j.pss.2009.08.007},
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journal = {Planetary and Space Science},
keywords = {DeepWorker,Exploration metrics,Human\u2013robotic interface,Performance metrics,Remotely operated vehicle,autonomous underwater vehicle,human,robotic interface},
month = mar,
number = {4},
pages = {706--716},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Performance evaluation of underwater platforms in the context of space exploration}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0032063309002475},
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year = {2010}
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issn = {02659646},
journal = {Space Policy},
month = aug,
number = {3},
pages = {132--139},
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url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0265964608000404},
volume = {24},
year = {2008}
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keywords = {Policy,advocacy role of scienti,c community,globalization,globalization of energy technology,policy,space-based energy technologies},
mendeley-tags = {Policy,globalization},
month = may,
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url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0265964600000096},
volume = {16},
year = {2000}
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@misc{How2010c,
author = {How, Jonathan P.},
booktitle = {MIT},
keywords = {Formation Flying,Navigation},
mendeley-tags = {Formation Flying,Navigation},
title = {{Relative Navigation for Formation Flying Spacecraft Using Carrier-Phase Differential GPS}},
url = {http://www.mit.edu/people/jhow/gps1.htm},
year = {2010}
}
@misc{Yang2009,
author = {Yang, Dongkai and Zhou, Yanan and Wang, Yan},
booktitle = {Inside GNSS},
keywords = {Data Mining,Data Processing,GNSS},
mendeley-tags = {Data Mining,Data Processing,GNSS},
pages = {40--45},
title = {{Remote Sensing with Reflected Signals: GNSS-R Data Processing Software and Test Analysis}},
url = {http://www.insidegnss.com/auto/sepoct09-Yang.pdf},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Curtis2010,
author = {Curtis, Jeremy and Harra, Louise and Zarnecki, John and Grady, Monica},
doi = {10.1016/j.spacepol.2010.03.007},
file = {::},
issn = {02659646},
journal = {Space Policy},
month = may,
number = {2},
pages = {113--116},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Reviewing UK space exploration}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0265964610000366},
volume = {26},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Tralli2005,
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doi = {10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2005.02.002},
file = {::},
issn = {09242716},
journal = {ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing},
keywords = {Disaster,Remote Sensing,Satellite,decision support system,disaster response,dss,global positioning system,gps,imaging spectroscopy,insar,interferometric synthetic aperture radar,natural hazards,risk mitigation,satellite remote sensing},
mendeley-tags = {Disaster,Remote Sensing,Satellite},
month = jun,
number = {4},
pages = {185--198},
title = {{Satellite remote sensing of earthquake, volcano, flood, landslide and coastal inundation hazards}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0924271605000043},
volume = {59},
year = {2005}
}
@inproceedings{Kapfer2006,
author = {Kapfer, R. and Krumme, M. and Davis, M.E.},
booktitle = {Proceedings of IEEE Radar Conference},
keywords = {Radar},
mendeley-tags = {Radar},
pages = {8 pp},
publisher = {IEEE Press},
title = {{SBR sparse array performance with subarray orientation and timing errors}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/RADAR.2006.1631838},
year = {2006}
}
@misc{SpaceEd2010,
booktitle = {Space Education Initiatives},
keywords = {Education},
mendeley-tags = {Education},
title = {{SEi Announcements}},
url = {http://www.spaceed.org/},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Carter1981,
author = {Carter, W},
doi = {10.1016/0273-1177(81)90402-6},
file = {::},
issn = {02731177},
journal = {Advances in Space Research},
keywords = {Earth bound resource exploration,Satellite},
mendeley-tags = {Earth bound resource exploration,Satellite},
number = {10},
pages = {261--269},
title = {{Significant results from using earth observation satellites for mineral and energy resource exploration}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/0273117781904026},
volume = {1},
year = {1981}
}
@book{Dick2007,
address = {Washington, D.C.},
editor = {Dick, Steven J. and Launius, Roger D.},
keywords = {Societal Impact},
pages = {680},
publisher = {NASA},
title = {{Societal Impact of Spaceflight}},
year = {2007}
}
@misc{Cucinotta2001,
author = {Cucinotta, Francis A.},
pages = {55},
title = {{Space radiation cancer risk projections for exploration missions: uncertainty reduction and mitigation}},
url = {http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/shuttle/support/researching/radiation/marsrisk.pdf},
year = {2001}
}
@misc{King2002,
author = {King, Lyon B. and Parker, Gordon G. and Deshmukh, Satwik and Chong, Jer-Hong},
institution = {Michigan Technological University},
keywords = {Formation Flying,Swarms},
mendeley-tags = {Formation Flying,Swarms},
pages = {103},
title = {{Spacecraft Formation-flying using Inter-vehicle Coulomb Forces}},
url = {http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final\\_report/601King.pdf},
year = {2002}
}
@inproceedings{Vigan2010,
address = {Barcelona},
author = {Vigan, M. C. and Toso, G. and Angeletti, P. and Lager, I. E. and Yarovoy, A. and Caratelli, D.},
booktitle = {4th European Conference on Antennas and Propagation (EuCAP 2010)},
keywords = {Antennas,Satellite},
mendeley-tags = {Antennas,Satellite},
title = {{Sparse Antenna Array for Earth-coverage Satellite Applications}},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Transportation2006,
file = {::},
journal = {Transportation},
title = {{Spinoff}},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Lafleur2010,
author = {Lafleur, Jarret M. and Saleh, Joseph H.},
doi = {10.1016/j.actaastro.2009.12.004},
file = {::},
issn = {00945765},
journal = {Acta Astronautica},
keywords = {Design,Exploration,Flexibility,Space exploration,System modification,Systems engineering},
mendeley-tags = {Design,Exploration,Systems engineering},
month = jul,
number = {1-2},
pages = {97--107},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Survey of intra- and inter-mission flexibility in space exploration systems}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0094576509005761},
volume = {67},
year = {2010}
}
@misc{MITSSL2010,
booktitle = {The MIT Space Systems Laboratory},
keywords = {Satellite},
mendeley-tags = {Satellite},
title = {{Synchronized Position Hold Engage and Reorient Experimental Satellites}},
url = {http://ssl.mit.edu/spheres/},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Chung2010,
author = {Chung, S.Y. and Ehrenfreund, P. and Rummel, J.D. and Peter, N.},
doi = {10.1016/j.asr.2009.10.025},
file = {::},
issn = {02731177},
journal = {Advances in Space Research},
keywords = {astrobiology,biodiversity,earth observation,international space cooperation,space exploration,space weather},
month = jan,
number = {1},
pages = {155--168},
publisher = {COSPAR},
title = {{Synergies of Earth science and space exploration}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0273117709006887},
volume = {45},
year = {2010}
}
@misc{MITSSL2010a,
booktitle = {Space Systems Laboratory - MIT},
keywords = {Satellite},
mendeley-tags = {Satellite},
title = {{Techsat 21 Project Pages}},
url = {http://ssl.mit.edu/overview/OpenHouse2001/DSS/OpenHouse2001\\_DSS.pdf},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Yatabe1986,
author = {Yatabe, S.M. and Fabbri, A.G.},
doi = {10.1016/0098-3004(86)90070-1},
file = {::},
issn = {00983004},
journal = {Computers \\& Geosciences},
keywords = {Data Mining,Exploration,Imaging,Remote Sensing,Satellite,canadian petroleum industry,data integration,exploration,image analysis,landsat,petroleum,remote sensing,spot-i},
mendeley-tags = {Data Mining,Exploration,Imaging,Remote Sensing,Satellite},
number = {4},
pages = {597--609},
title = {{The application of remote sensing to canadian petroleum exploration: promising and yet unexploited}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/0098300486900701},
volume = {12},
year = {1986}
}
@article{Gaugerb1986,
author = {Gaugerb, Grant E. and Tobiasb, Cornelius A. and Yangb, Tracy and Whitneyb, Monroe},
journal = {Advances in Space Research},
number = {11},
pages = {243--249},
title = {{The effect of space radiation on the nervous system}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?\\_ob=ArticleURL\\&\\_udi=B6V3S-472BJ54-3F\\&\\_user=141903\\&\\_coverDate=12/31/1986\\&\\_rdoc=1\\&\\_fmt=high\\&\\_orig=search\\&\\_sort=d\\&\\_docanchor=\\&view=c\\&\\_searchStrId=1410022796\\&\\_rerunOrigin=google\\&\\_acct=C000011778\\&\\_version=1\\&\\_urlVersion=0\\&\\_userid=141903\\&md5=5829460965049b158942dadc85c3382d},
volume = {6},
year = {1986}
}
@article{Messina2005,
author = {Messina, P and Vennemann, D},
doi = {10.1016/j.actaastro.2005.03.020},
file = {::},
issn = {00945765},
journal = {Acta Astronautica},
month = jul,
number = {2-8},
pages = {156--160},
title = {{The European space exploration programme: Current status of ESA's plans for Moon and Mars exploration}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0094576505001116},
volume = {57},
year = {2005}
}
@article{Pyne2007,
author = {Pyne, S},
doi = {10.1016/j.spacepol.2007.06.006},
file = {::},
issn = {02659646},
journal = {Space Policy},
keywords = {Anatarctic Station,Biospheres,Closed loop},
mendeley-tags = {Anatarctic Station,Biospheres,Closed loop},
month = aug,
number = {3},
pages = {147--149},
title = {{The extraterrestrial Earth: Antarctica as analogue for space exploration}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0265964607000550},
volume = {23},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Launius2000,
author = {Launius, Roger D},
doi = {10.1016/S0265-9646(99)00055-7},
file = {::},
issn = {02659646},
journal = {Space Policy},
month = feb,
number = {1},
pages = {23--38},
title = {{The historical dimension of space exploration: reflections and possibilities}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0265964699000557},
volume = {16},
year = {2000}
}
@article{Crawford2001,
author = {Crawford, I},
doi = {10.1016/S0265-9646(01)00020-0},
file = {::},
issn = {02659646},
journal = {Space Policy},
month = aug,
number = {3},
pages = {155--159},
title = {{The scientific case for human space exploration}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0265964601000200},
volume = {17},
year = {2001}
}
@article{Avnet2006,
author = {Avnet, M},
doi = {10.1016/j.spacepol.2006.02.005},
file = {::},
issn = {02659646},
journal = {Space Policy},
keywords = {Exploration,Policy,Space Elevator},
mendeley-tags = {Exploration,Policy,Space Elevator},
month = may,
number = {2},
pages = {133--139},
title = {{The space elevator in the context of current space exploration policy}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S026596460600021X},
volume = {22},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Stadd2004,
author = {Stadd, C and Bingham, J},
doi = {10.1016/j.spacepol.2004.08.001},
file = {::},
issn = {02659646},
journal = {Space Policy},
month = nov,
number = {4},
pages = {241--252},
title = {{The US civil space sector: alternate futures}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0265964604000542},
volume = {20},
year = {2004}
}
@article{Oliver2007,
author = {Oliver, C},
doi = {10.1016/j.actaastro.2007.01.062},
file = {::},
issn = {00945765},
journal = {Acta Astronautica},
keywords = {Education,Virtual Space},
mendeley-tags = {Education,Virtual Space},
month = jun,
number = {1-6},
pages = {548--552},
title = {{The virtual space exploration education portal}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0094576507000768},
volume = {61},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Horneck2010,
author = {Horneck, Gerda and Coradini, Angioletta and Haerendel, Gerhard and Kallenrode, May-Britt and Kamoun, Paul and Swings, Jean Pierre and Tobias, Alberto and Tortora, Jean-Jacques},
doi = {10.1016/j.spacepol.2010.02.007},
file = {::},
issn = {02659646},
journal = {Space Policy},
month = may,
number = {2},
pages = {109--112},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Towards a European vision for space exploration: Recommendations of the Space Advisory Group of the European Commission}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0265964610000238},
volume = {26},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Lester2009,
author = {Lester, Daniel F. and Robinson, Michael},
doi = {10.1016/j.spacepol.2009.07.001},
file = {::},
issn = {02659646},
journal = {Space Policy},
month = nov,
number = {4},
pages = {236--243},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Visions of exploration}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0265964609000691},
volume = {25},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Logsdon2008,
author = {Logsdon, J},
doi = {10.1016/j.spacepol.2007.11.007},
file = {::},
issn = {02659646},
journal = {Space Policy},
month = feb,
number = {1},
pages = {3--5},
title = {{Why space exploration should be a global project}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0265964607001178},
volume = {24},
year = {2008}
}
@misc{Cohen2007,
author = {Cohen, David},
booktitle = {New Scientist},
number = {2605},
pages = {34--41},
title = {{Earth's natural wealth: an audit}},
url = {http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19426051.200-earths-natural-wealth-an-audit.html},
volume = {May},
year = {2007}
}
@misc{Neumeyer2010,
author = {Neumeyer, Derek},
year = {2010},
url = {http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/458815main_FTD_EnvironmentControlAndLifeSupport.pdf},
howpublished = {NASA Flagship Technology Demonstrator (FTD) Environment Control & Life Support (ECLS) Enterprise Workshop}
}
@article{Gordon2006,
abstract = {The relative proportions of metal residing in ore in the lithosphere, in use in products providing services, and in waste deposits measure our progress from exclusive use of virgin ore toward full dependence on sustained use of recycled metal. In the U.S. at present, the copper contents of these three repositories are roughly equivalent, but metal in service continues to increase. Providing today's developed-country level of services for copper worldwide (as well as for zinc and, perhaps, platinum) would appear to require conversion of essentially all of the ore in the lithosphere to stock-in-use plus near-complete recycling of the metals from that point forward.},
author = {Gordon, R B and Bertram, M and Graedel, T E},
institution = {Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, P.O. Box 208109, New Haven, CT 06511, USA.},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
keywords = {Conservation of Natural Resources,Copper,Electronics,Lead,Manufactured Materials,Metals,Mining,Nickel,Photography,Platinum,Silver,Stainless Steel,Tin,Zinc,chemistry,economics},
number = {5},
pages = {1209--1214},
pmid = {16432205},
publisher = {National Acad Sciences},
title = {{Metal stocks and sustainability.}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16432205},
volume = {103},
year = {2006}
}
@misc{green-2010,
author = {Womack, Ann M. and Bohannan, Brendan J. M. and Green, Jessica L.},
howpublished = {Presented by Green at the British Academy in July 2010},
title = {Biogeography of the air},
}
@book{bekey,
Date-Added = {2010-07-30 21:53:33 -0700},
Date-Modified = {2010-07-30 21:54:24 -0700},
Month = {June},
Publisher = {The MIT Press},
Title = {Autonomous Robots: From Biological Inspiration to Implementation and Control},
Year = {2005}}

@article{willow,
Date-Added = {2010-07-30 21:42:03 -0700},
Date-Modified = {2010-07-30 21:45:33 -0700},
Lastchecked = {30 Jul 2010},
year = {2010},
author = {Willow Garage},
Title = {Willow Garage - Website},
Url = {http://www.willowgarage.com/pages/about-us}}

@misc{chirikjian2,
Author = {Suthakorn, Zhou, Chirikjian},
Date-Added = {2010-07-30 21:39:50 -0700},
Date-Modified = {2010-07-30 21:40:25 -0700},
Lastchecked = {30 Jul 2010},
Title = {Self-Replicating Robots for Space Utilization},
Url = {http://custer.lcsr.jhu.edu/wiki/images/c/cf/Suthakorn02_b.pdf}}

@misc{chirikjian,
Author = {Chirikjian, Suthakorn},
Date-Added = {2010-07-30 21:36:44 -0700},
Date-Modified = {2010-07-30 21:38:11 -0700},
Lastchecked = {30 Jul 2010},
Title = {Toward Self-Replicating Robots},
Url = {http://custer.lcsr.jhu.edu/wiki/images/f/ff/Chirikjian02.pdf}}

@article{goertzel,
Author = {Ben Boertzel},
Date-Added = {2010-07-30 21:33:50 -0700},
Date-Modified = {2010-07-30 21:34:06 -0700},
Title = {Personal Webpage},
Url = {http://www.goertzel.org/}}

@misc{mmp,
Date-Added = {2010-07-30 21:32:27 -0700},
Date-Modified = {2010-07-30 21:32:45 -0700},
year = {2010},
Title = {MIT Mind Machine Project},
Url = {http://mmp.mit.edu/}}

@misc{won,
Author = {Won, DeLaurentis, Marvoidis},
Booktitle = {Proceedings of the 2000 IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation},
Date-Added = {2010-07-30 21:28:11 -0700},
Date-Modified = {2010-07-30 21:29:02 -0700},
Month = {April},
Title = {Rapid Prototyping of Robotic Systems},
Url = {http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~reshko/Publications/prototyping.pdf},
Year = {2000}}

@article{reshko,
Author = {Reshko, Mason, Nourbakhsh},
Date-Added = {2010-07-30 21:26:46 -0700},
Date-Modified = {2010-07-30 21:27:40 -0700},
Title = {Rapid Prototyping of Small Robots},
Url = {http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~reshko/Publications/prototyping.pdf},
Year = {2000}}

@misc{golem,
Author = {Jordan B. Pollack},
Date-Added = {2010-07-30 21:23:54 -0700},
Date-Modified = {2010-07-30 21:24:32 -0700},
Title = {The Golem Project},
Url = {http://www.demo.cs.brandeis.edu/golem/fabrication.html},
Year = {2000}}

@misc{fabathome,
Author = {Dan Cohen},
Date-Added = {2010-07-30 21:18:21 -0700},
Date-Modified = {2010-07-30 21:21:12 -0700},
Lastchecked = {30 Jul 2010},
Month = {October},
Title = {Four-Legged Robot Printed on Fab@Home},
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Year = {2009}}

@article{sonter,
Author = {MJ. Sonter},
Date-Added = {2010-07-29 15:28:33 -0700},
Date-Modified = {2010-07-29 15:29:06 -0700},
Journal = {Solar System Development Journal},
Number = {1},
Pages = {1-31},
Title = {Near Earth Objects as Resources for Space Industrialization},
Volume = {1},
Year = {2001}}

@article{gerlach,
Author = {Charles L. Gerlach},
Date-Added = {2010-07-29 15:20:50 -0700},
Date-Modified = {2010-07-29 15:21:37 -0700},
Journal = {International Space Development Conference},
Title = {Profitably Exploiting Near-Earth Object Resources},
Year = {2005}}

@misc{gordon,
Author = {R.B. Gordon},
Date-Added = {2010-07-28 16:15:40 -0700},
Date-Modified = {2010-07-29 15:30:32 -0700},
Journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
Lastchecked = {23 July 2010},
Month = {January},
Title = {Metal Stocks and Sustainability},
Url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/103/5/1209.long},
Year = {2006},
Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://www.pnas.org/content/103/5/1209.long}}

@article{Seboldt2004,
title = \"Space- and Earth-based solar power for the growing energy needs of future generations\",
journal = \"Acta Astronautica\",
volume = \"55\",
number = \"3-9\",
pages = \"389 - 399\",
year = \"2004\",
note = \"New Opportunities for Space. Selected Proceedings of the 54th International Astronautical Federation Congress\",
issn = \"0094-5765\",
doi = \"10.1016/j.actaastro.2004.05.032\",
url = \"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V1N-4CVV63B-3/2/566ee4365ebfd5ed35cee5fcfec45917\",
author = \"Wolfgang Seboldt\"
}
@misc{neuroimage2004,
title = {Positron Emission Tomograph: Computational Issues},
author = {USC Biomedical Imaging Research Lab},
year={2004},
url={http://neuroimage.usc.edu/ResearchPETComput.html}
}
@misc{mri1991,
title = {MRI prices fall sharply in markets outside U.S.},
author = {DiagnosticImaging.com},
year = {1991},
month = jan,
url = {http://www.diagnosticimaging.com/display/article/113619/1219412}
}
@article{Zeng2004,
title = {Trends in Cochlear Implants},
author = {Zeng, Fan-Gang},
year = {2004},
month = mar,
doi = {10.1177/108471380400800102},
volume = {8},
number = {1},
pages = {1--34},
journal = {Trends in Amplification}
}
@misc{TheSpacePlace2004,
author = {{The Space Place}},
keywords = {NASA,spinoff,technology},
title = {{NASA Spinoffs, Bringing Space down to Earth}},
url = {http://www.thespaceplace.com/nasa/spinoffs.html},
year = {2004}
}
@misc{McNally2010,
title = {Cheaper, Better Satellites Made From Cellphones and Toys},
author = {McNally, Jess},
year = {2010},
month = jul,
howpublished = {Wired.com},
journal = {Wired Science},
url = {http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/07/cell-phone-satellite/}
}
@misc{Patel2010,
title = {Tiny Satellites for Big Science},
author = {Patel, Prachi},
year = {2010},
month = jul,
howpublished = {Astrobiology Magazine},
url = {http://www.astrobio.net/exclusive/3552/tiny-satellites-for-big-science}
}
@misc{AUV2010,
author = {The University of Sydney Australian Centre for Field Robotics},
title = {AUTONOMOUS UNDERWATER VEHICLE (AUV) - SIRIUS},
url = {http://www.acfr.usyd.edu.au/research/projects/subsea/auvSIRIUS.shtml},
year = {2010}
}

@misc{cubesatlaunch,
author = {Sweet, Anne E.},
keywords = {NASA,cubesat,technology},
title = {{ANNOUNCEMENT OF CUBESAT LAUNCH INITIATIVE}},
url = {https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=5f87fc37b28adbfc05942bc961468ac5&tab=core&_cview=0},
year = {2010}
}

@misc{solarsystemexplore,
url = {http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/index.cfm}
}

@misc{NCRP,
url = {http://www.ncrponline.org/}
}

@misc{ipsnig,
url = {http://www.ipnsig.org/home.htm}
}

@article{Wardle2008,
title = {Fabrication and Characterization of Ultrahigh-Volume-Fraction Aligned Carbon Nanotube-Polymer Composites},
author = {Wardle, Brian L. and Saito, Diego S. and Garcia, Enrique J. and Hart, John and de Villoria, Roberto Guzm\u00e1n and Verploegen, Eric A},
year = {2008},
volume = {20},
pages = {2707-2714},
journal = {Advanced Matter}
}

@article{Richards2006,
author = {Richards, Jeffrey T. and Corey, Kenneth A. and Paul, Anna-Lisa and Ferl, Robert J. and Wheeler, Raymond M. and Schuerger, Andrew C.},
title = {Exposure of Arabidopsis thaliana to Hypobaric Environments: Implications for Low-Pressure Bioregenerative Life Support Systems for Human Exploration Missions and Terraforming on Mars},
journal = {Astrobiology},
year = 2006,
month = dec,
volume = {6},
number = {6},
pages = {851--866},
doi = {10.1089/ast.2006.6.851},
url = {http://www.liebertonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1089/ast.2006.6.851}
}

@article{Chaudhary2010,
title = \"Feasibility study of LEO, GEO and Molniya orbit based satellite solar power station for some identified sites in India\",
journal = \"Advances in Space Research\",
volume = \"In Press, Corrected Proof\",
number = \"\",
pages = \" - \",
year = \"2010\",
note = \"\",
issn = \"0273-1177\",
doi = \"DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2010.06.012\",
url = \"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V3S-508FF2P-1/2/d72712c0664f415698873794705079da\",
author = \"Chaudhary, Kalpana and Vishvakarma, Babau R.\",
keywords = \"Solar power\",
keywords = \"Satellite solar power station (SSPS)\",
keywords = \"LEO SSPS\",
keywords = \"GEO SSPS\"
}

@article{Wang2008,
author = {Wang, Ding and Song, Pengcheng and Liu, Changhong and Wu, Wei and Fan, Shoushan},
title = {Highly oriented carbon nanotube papers made of aligned carbon nanotubes},
journal = {Nanotechnology},
year = 2008,
month = feb,
volume = {19},
number = {7},
doi = {10.1088/0957-4484/19/7/075609},
url = {http://www.liebertonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1089/ast.2006.6.851}
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@article{Hutchison2010,
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@misc{buckypapernano,
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@misc{nanolab,
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@misc{nanotech,
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year = {2001}
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author = {{National Space Society}},
title = {{Space-Based Solar Power As an Opportunity for Strategic Security}},
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year = {2007}
}
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year = {2009}
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author = {Rao, J. R. and Richter, G. J. and {Von Sturm}, F. and Weidlich, E.},
journal = {Bioelectrochem. Bioenerg.},
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title = {{The performance of glucose electrodes and the characteristics of different biofuel cell constructions.}},
volume = {3},
year = {1976}
}
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author = {Ri\\`{e}s-Kautt, M},
doi = {10.1016/S0022-0248(97)00280-7},
file = {:C$\\backslash$:/Users/test/Desktop/TEST/Ries-Kautt1997.pdf:pdf},
issn = {00220248},
journal = {Journal of Crystal Growth},
keywords = {crystallization,crystallography,lysozyme,microgravity,mosaicity,nucleation,protein,solubility},
month = oct,
number = {1-2},
pages = {79--96},
title = {{Crystallogenesis studies in microgravity with the Advanced Protein Crystallization Facility on SpaceHab-01}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022024897002807},
volume = {181},
year = {1997}
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journal = {Protoplasma},
keywords = {Acetylcholine,Acetylcholine: pharmacology,Cell Line, Tumor,Centrifugation,Cholinergic Agonists,Cholinergic Agonists: pharmacology,Cytoskeleton,Cytoskeleton: drug effects,Cytoskeleton: metabolism,Gravity Sensing,Gravity, Altered,Humans,Hypergravity,Microfilaments,Microfilaments: drug effects,Microfilaments: metabolism,Microtubules,Microtubules: drug effects,Microtubules: metabolism,Neuroblastoma,Neurons,Neurons: drug effects,Neurons: metabolism,Pseudopodia,Pseudopodia: metabolism,Rotation,Space Flight,Time Factors,Weightlessness,Weightlessness Simulation},
month = dec,
number = {2-4},
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year = {2006}
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journal = {Advances in Space Research},
keywords = {alara,cosmic radiation,international space station,polyethylene shielding,space radiation protection,space radiation shielding},
number = {6},
pages = {1333--1337},
title = {{Implementation of ALARA radiation protection on the ISS through polyethylene shielding augmentation of the Service Module Crew Quarters}},
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year = {2004}
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author = {{Space Energy}},
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address = {New York},
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booktitle = {Microbial Ecology},
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pages = {3--13},
publisher = {Springer },
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author = {Suppes, P and Lu, Z L and Han, B},
file = {:C$\\backslash$:/Users/test/Desktop/Singularity University/Neuro/1997-BrainWaveRecognitionWords.pdf:pdf},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
keywords = {Brain,Brain: physiology,Electroencephalography,Humans,Speech Perception,Speech Perception: physiology},
month = dec,
number = {26},
pages = {14965--9},
pmid = {9405722},
title = {{Brain wave recognition of words.}},
url = {http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=25146\\&tool=pmcentrez\\&rendertype=abstract},
volume = {94},
year = {1997}
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doi = {10.1016/j.neulet.2009.07.045},
file = {:C$\\backslash$:/Users/test/Desktop/TEST/Takeda2009.pdf:pdf},
issn = {1872-7972},
journal = {Neuroscience letters},
keywords = {Antineoplastic Agents,Antineoplastic Agents: pharmacology,Apoptosis,Brain Neoplasms,Brain Neoplasms: pathology,Cell Cycle,Cell Line, Tumor,Cell Proliferation,Cell Proliferation: drug effects,Cell Survival,Cell Survival: drug effects,Cisplatin,Cisplatin: pharmacology,Glioma,Glioma: pathology,Humans,Membrane Potential, Mitochondrial,Mitochondria,Mitochondria: physiology,Weightlessness Simulation},
month = sep,
number = {1},
pages = {54--9},
pmid = {19628020},
title = {{Effects of simulated microgravity on proliferation and chemosensitivity in malignant glioma cells.}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19628020},
volume = {463},
year = {2009}
}
@misc{TechnologyGateway2008,
author = {{Technology Gateway}},
booktitle = {YouTube},
title = {{EBF3 - Electron Beam Free Form Fabrication}},
url = {http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrWHwHuWrzk},
year = {2008}
}
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author = {Vergara, A and Lorber, B and Sauter, C and Gieg\\'{e}, R and Zagari, A},
file = {:C$\\backslash$:/Users/test/Desktop/TEST/Vergara2005.pdf:pdf},
journal = {Biophysical Chemistry },
keywords = {Biotechnology,Crystals},
mendeley-tags = {Biotechnology,Crystals},
number = {2-3},
pages = {1590--1595},
title = {{Lessons from crystals grown in the Advanced Protein Crystallisation Facility for conventional crystallisation applied to structural biology}},
volume = {118},
year = {2005}
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author = {Yuan, Shi-Jie and Sheng, Guo-Ping and {Wen-Wei Li} and {Zhi-Qi Lin} and {Raymond J. Zeng} and {Zhong-Hua Tong} and {Han-Qing Yu}},
journal = {Environmental Science \\& Technology},
number = {14},
pages = {5575--5580},
title = {{Degradation of Organic Pollutants in a Photoelectrocatalytic System Enhanced by a Microbial Fuel Cell}},
volume = {44},
year = {2010}
}

"
http://su-etherpad.com/space-glossary
"%%GLOSSARY
\
ewacronymd{CLLSS}{Closed-Loop Life Support Systems}{are life support systems which reuse 100\\% of their waste resources, with the exception of waste energy}
\
ewacronymd{COSPAR}{Committee on Space Research}{COSPAR promotes international scientific research in space, and provides an open forum for the disucssion of problems related to space science (for instance, organizing conferences on planetary protection policy).}
\
ewacronym{LEO}{LEO}{Low Earth Orbit}
\
ewacronymd{SSTO}{Single Stage to Orbit}{refers to a vehicle which reaches orbit without jettisoning hardware, expending only fluids. The term usually, but not exclusively, refers to reusable vehicles. \
opostdesc}
\
ewacronymd{ITAR}{International Traffic in Arms Regulations}{a set of United States federal regulations that restrict the international trade of items and information which is considered by the federal government to be ``munitions,'' including encryption technology and space technology}
\
ewacronym{ISS}{ISS}{International Space Station}
\
ewacronymd{ISRU}{In-Situ Resource Utilization}{refers to the usage of local resources, especially the local usage of resources found in space, as opposed to the transport of Earth resources into space or vice versa. \
opostdesc}
\
ewacronym{SLS}{SLS}{Selective Laser Sintering}
\
ewacronym{EBFF}{EBFF}{Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication}

\
ewglossaryentry{Isp}{text={\\isp}, name={specific impulse (\\isp)}, first={specific impulse (\\isp)}, description={is a metric of rocket (or jet) efficiency; the change in momentum per unit amount of propellant used. (This works out to an SI unit of seconds.) The higher the specific impulse, the less propellant is needed to gain a given amount of momentum. For example, the Space Shuttle Main Engine has an \\isp of 453s. \
opostdesc}}
\
ewglossaryentry{gyrotron}{text={gyrotron}, name={gyrotron}, description={a type of high-powered microwave transmitter}}

\
ewglossaryentry{payload-fraction}{name={payload fraction},description={the fraction of a launch
vehicle's mass on the launchpad which is allocated to the object(s) being
launched (payload), rather than structural materials, fuel, etc. \
opostdesc}}

\
ewglossaryentry{rocket-equation}{name={ideal rocket equation},description={an equation which relates
the maximum change of speed of a rocket with the \\isp and the initial and final mass of the rocket.
\\[\\Delta v = I_{\\rm sp} g_0 \\ln \\frac{m_0}{m_1}\\] where $m_0$ is the initial total mass, including
propellant; $m_1$ is the final total mass, \\isp is the specific impulse of the engine, $g_0$ is the
initial acceleration due to gravity, and $\\Delta v$ is the change of speed of the rocket over the
entire period}}

\
ewglossaryentry{crystallography}{name={Crystallography},description={experimental science of determining the arrangement of atoms in solids. X-ray crystallography and electron crystallography are used to investigate protein structures in biology.}}

\
ewglossaryentry{3D printer}{name={3D Printer},description={a device which produces 3D objects from a bulk material, frequently by a process of layer-by-layer deposition}}

\
ewglossaryentry{Vint}{name={Vint Cerf},description={father of the internet}}

\
ewacronymd{fMRI}{functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging}{a technology for measuring brain activity which is well-known and widely used, but with low spatial resolution}
\
ewacronymd{PET}{Positron Emission Tomography}{an older technology for measuring brain activity}

\
ewacronym{CAD}{CAD}{Computer-Aided Design}

\
ewacronymd{ARPANET}{Advanced Research Projects Agency Network}{an early predecessor to the Internet}

\
ewacronym{Techsat21}{Techsat21}{Technology Satellite of the 21st Century}

\
ewacronym{DARPA}{DARPA}{Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency}

\
ewacronym{JPL}{JPL}{Jet Propulsion Laboratory}

\
ewacronym{EEG}{EEG}{electroencephalography}
\
ewacronym{VR}{VR}{Virtual Reality}
\
ewacronym{BMI}{BMI}{Brain-Machine Interface}
\
ewacronym{TMS}{TMS}{Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation}

\
ewacronymd{AGI}{Artificial general intelligence}{also known as ``strong AI,'' a hypothesized future technology with intelligence, creativity, and general problem-solving capabilities equal to those of a human; see also \\autoref{et-ai}}

\
ewacronym{TEM}{TEM}{Transmission Electron Microscopy}
\
ewacronym{CCD}{CCD}{Charge-Coupled Device}
\
ewacronym{MFC}{MFC}{Microbial Fuel Cells}
\
ewacronym{PV}{PV}{Photovoltaic}
\
ewacronym{FDA}{FDA}{U.S. Food and Drug Administration}

"
http://su-etherpad.com/space-etir-ideas
"\\subsection{10-year Time Horizon}

\\subsubsection{Cheap Spacecraft for Developing Nations}

\\begin{description}
\\item[Application:] Use cheap spacecraft as a way to enable developing countries to get involved in space.

\\item[Problem:] Third world countries are cut off from technology and science in many ways, and often the general public in such countries don't understand what space is and Earth is just a small part of a larger universe.

\\item[Opportunity:]
Imagine the headlines: Ethopia launches their own satellite.If we give developing countries the tools to build and launch their own {\\emph useful} satellite at a low-cost (via increasing capabilities of satellites and dramatic reduction in cost), we can:
\\begin{enumerate}
\\item get 3rd-world countries more involved in space and give them a greater understanding of the world we live in
\\item Show the world that space is opening up to all people, and becoming increasingly cheaper to get involved.
\\end{enumerate}

\\item[Enabling technologies:]
The increase in computational power and decrease in cost is enabling satellites to be built at fractions of the current cost.

\\item[Who is doing it:]
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item Chris Boshuizen and a team of NASA Ames Research Center engineers launched two Nexus One cellphones to 30,000 feet in July 2010, with plans to launch them to orbit in 2011 \\cite{McNally2010}.
\\item Bob Twiggs, inventor of the CubeSat, is working on launching eight ``pocket CubeSats'' into orbit in 2011. The cubes are an eighth of the volume of standard CubeSats at roughly 5 centimeters, and are expected to cost less than \\$25,000 each with full capabilities \\cite{Patel2010}.
\\end{enumerate}

\\item[Time Scale:] The materials and parts to launch a satellite for less than \\$10,000 and eventually \\$1,000 is approaching over the next five to ten years \\cite{Patel2010}.

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:]
The largest bottleneck isn't the technology. Rather, it's the ability to acquire philanthropic funds for developing countries. Since most countries in Africa don't have the money for clean water or sustainable energy, this idea would have to be sold to philanthropists as a means to educate people in a way that enables them to build their own economy and future space program.
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{DIY Spacecraft}

\\begin{description}
\\item[Application:] Build a satellite architecture that is on the order of hundreds of dollars to launch. Allows for individuals to own and operate their own missions.

\\item[Problem:] Creating the business case. Creating the communication system to control and send/receive data from the space crafts.

\\item[Opportunity:] With current technology a satellite can be made to sizes within 10 cm on a side and costing the price of a personal computer. With the advancements in nanotechnology, computing, and AI/robotics these spacecrafts will continue to shrink exponentially in size. If we can launch 1000s of these in one rocket the cost per satellite becomes very low.

Each launch will release a swarm of satellites that can serve many purposes. First, because each satellite is identical, all that needs to change to change its mission is the software program, which can be uploaded from ground. This means individuals can own or rent a satellite or any part of the swarm to operate their individual mission, that they create of find through open source software sharing. Monitor global warming from your desktop live, create science fair or research projects, take your own ``pale blue dot'' picture. Google may decide to buy or rent an entire swarm and take Google Earth live giving users incredible benefits such as Instant disaster relief monitoring, The best ideas are the ones that haven't been though of yet.This idea WILL open the space frontier to everyone on Earth.

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] This technology will be the next best thing to actually putting people in space. It will allow them to see space through their own eyes, which could in turn help motivate the opening of the space frontier.

\\item[Who is doing it:] NASA Ames team (Chris Boshuizen, Matthew Reyes, William Marshall), many university Cubesat groups.
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Open Source Cube Satellites}

\\begin{description}
\\item[Application:] Open source/open cube satellites for development (OSCS)

\\item[Problem:] Developing countries more often than not have no direct access to satellites and little
influence on application development, such as remote sensing, communication, and science.

\\item[Opportunity:] OSCS can provide a new platform for developing countries to improve data
analytics for development. On open source/open access model is apt to spark innovation in areas
such as remote sensing for pandemics, resource identification, communication, education,
engineering, etc.
%USE of NASA CUBESAT ANNONCEMENT for 2011 possible.
\\cite{cubesatlaunch}

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Nanotechnology, Computing, and/or
Networks.

\\item[Grand Challenges:] Getting There, Space Science

\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] Intelligent Space Operating System (ISOS)

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] Significant benefit for developing countries if combined
with terrestrial communication systems. Financing can be achieved through Worldbank and
NGO\u2019s with the benefit that loans/donations are transparent (Satellite/infrastructure).

\\item[Who is doing it:]
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item NASA
\\item ESA
\\item JAXA
\\item MIT
\\end{enumerate}

\\item[Time Scale:] Immediately, increasingly cheaper in future

\\item[Convergence:] Nanotechology

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] Cheap Access to Space
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Intelligent Space Operating System}
\\label{idea:isos}
\\begin{description}
\\item[Application:] Intelligent Space Operating System (ISOS)

\\item[Problem:] Robotics, AI and communication systems for space more often than not are designed
in isolated fashion. Hence devices and data transmission is mostly non-interoperable, isolated
with great redundancies.

\\item[Opportunity:] An Intelligent Space Operating System provides an open ecosystem for AI,
communication systems and satellites, as well as robotics to tie in by means of standardized
API\u2019s. Parts of such ISOS can be open-source and reconfigurable. Open access, open purpose, is
granted as much as possible. AN ISOS ideally encompasses all technology within space and
provides unique identifiers (IPs with encrypted authentication for safety/privacy). Similar to the
earthbound internet (of things) the ISOS provides connectivity, packet switching and
intermittent storage, smart communication processes and optimal routing, satellite access, swarm
satellite tie-in, spacecraft and extraterrestrial station communication, inter and intra-stellar
communications, earthbound internet access and geo-stational satellites, real-time as well as time-
buffered information transmission, and inter-robotic communication.

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Nanotechnology (Microsatellites), Computing Networks, Laser
technology, Solar Panels/energy

\\item[Grand Challenges:] Robotic Exploration/ Communication \\& Information Networks

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] Eradication of redundancies, standardization, smart
information transmission.

\\item[Who is doing it:]
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item Google
\\item NASA
\\item ESA
\\item JAXA
\\end{enumerate}

\\item[Time Scale:] Incremental growth during the next years, inclining growth with evolution of microsatellites, exponential growth as soon as cheap access is possible.

\\item[Convergence:] nanotech

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] cheap access to space, but not essential
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Intelligent Environments for Colonization} 
\\label{i2e}
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] -

\\item[Problem:] Extraterrestrial habitats for human space exploration must provide a high level of sensing capabilities to assure life support. If humans are out to colonize space, long term needs for human, animal and plant survival must be met.

\\item[Opportunity:] Smart environments are already emerging on earth. Due to innovation in sensor networks, sensor sophistication and miniaturization, an increasing amount of environmental conditions can be assessed. Sophisticated data analysis techniques allow for better modeling of conditions and actions to be undertaken. Smart environments such as a planetary or orbital station can connect to other nodes within the Intelligent Space Operating Systems (see \\autoref{idea:isos}) for optimization of the overall space system state.

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Computing, Networks.

\\item[Grand Challenges:] Habitats, biospheres, networks and communication.

\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] ISOS (Intelligent Space Operating Systems)

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] Essential for survival and colonization, interconnectivity with other habitation nodes allows for overall system optimization.

\\item[Who is doing it:]
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate} 
\\item NASA
\\item Living-Planit
\\item Smart cities MIT
\\item Responsive environments group MIT
\\end{enumerate}

\\item[Time Scale:] 5-10 years.

\\item[Convergence:] Nanotech and exponential ICT. Sensor development and miniaturization.
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Microbial Fuel Cells}
\\label{microbe-fuel}
\\begin{description}
\\item[Application:] The use of microbial fuel cells to generate power within
the Life Support Systems and any different energetic applications in
spaceflight or planetary stations could be a suitable, renewable and
efficient way of produce removable energy.
\\item[Problem:] The energy use for life support systems and other
applications during spaceflight and space station are restricted to
functions previously planned. The use of additional energy system
could help in building successful new life support systems and closed
loop systems.
\\item[Opportunity:] \\gls{MFC}s are devices that use bacteria as the catalysts to
oxidize organic and inorganic matter and generate current \\cite{Rao1976}
. Electrons produced by the bacteria from these substrates are
transferred to the anode (negative terminal) and flow to the cathode
(positive terminal) linked by a conductive material containing a
resistor, or operated under a load (i.e., producing electricity that
runs a device). The construction and analysis of \\gls{MFC}s requires
knowledge of different scientific and engineering fields, ranging from
microbiology and electrochemistry to materials and environmental
engineering. For example, was observed that when a water-soluble
distyrylstilbene oligoelectrolyte (DSSN+) was added into bioreactors,
these molecules were preferentially accumulate within cell membranes
and were used as the electron transport mediator increasing the \\gls{MFC}s
performance \\cite{Garner2010}. In addition, Yuan et al. reported a novel bioelectrochemical system to effectively reduce organic pollutant with utilization of the energy derived from a
microbial fuel cell \\cite{Yuan2010}. In such a system, there is a synergetic effect
between the electrochemical and photocatalytic oxidation processes.
Both systems show great potential to produce energy and to be part of
a closed loop system for space exploration.
\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Biotechnology, Synthetic biology.
\\item[Grand Challenges:] Human exploration (staying there, life support systems)
\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] Closed loop systems, bioconductors
\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] A better source of energy which can
be used in space propulsion and activation of improved life support
systems.
\\item[Who is doing it:] \\hfill
\\begin{enumerate}
\\item Dr. Bruce E. Logan Hydrogen Energy Center, 212 Sackett Building,
Penn State University, University Park, Pennsylvania
\\item Dr. Shi-Jie Yuan, Department of Chemistry, University of Science \\&
Technology of China, Hefei, 230026, China
\\item Dr. Korneel Rabaey, and Dr. Jeffrey M. Foley, Advanced Water
Management Centre, Gehrmann Building, The University of Queensland,
Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia
\\end{enumerate}
\\item[Time Scale:] 5 years
\\item[Convergence:] Being in the area of bioreactors, this technology could
benefit big challenges in up-cycle and energy areas.
\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] \\gls{MFC} research is a
rapidly evolving field that lacks established terminology and methods
for the analysis of system performance. This makes it difficult for
researchers to compare devices on an equivalent basis.
The most of \\glspl{MFC} require large volumes to produce more energy which is
a problem in launch costs.
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Polyethelyne/Biopolymer Radiation Shield} 
\\label{biopolymer}
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] Generation of hydrogen rich polymers to shield the inside of shuttles/inflatable inhabitable units from ionizing particle and high energy electromagnetic radiation
\\item[Problem:] 
The Earth\u2019s magnetosphere prevents protons, electrons and heavier nuclei that are continuously ejected by the Sun from reaching the soil. Also, Earth's atmosphere blocks some of the visible and infrared electromagnetic radiation, almost all the ultraviolet and all the X and gamma rays. While humans have evolved a system of UV protection involving melanin, no shielding is naturally provided from particle radiation.

Human exploration and colonization, as well as orbiting astronauts and satellites in the shorter term, will greatly depend on the advances in radiation protection technology, since the planets/moons/asteroids that we will be in reach of most probably will not have an inherent magnetosphere that will protect us.

Especially dangerous are the flares and coronal mass ejections generated by the Sun in an observed nonstationary Poisson process, i.e. random distribution \\cite{Aschwanden2010}. These particles have sufficient energy to get through any shielding material currently used in space shuttles/space suits as well as the Earth's magnetosphere and because they are unpredictable they constitute a major threat. \\cite{solarsystemexplore}

Importantly, the use of improper shielding material might cause the generation of secondary radiation, i.e. acceleration of a charged particle through deflection of another charged particle, which increases the probability of absorption from the organism \\cite{NCRP}.
It is therefore vital that complete ionizing radiation protection be established before any human colonization missions. 

\\item[Opportunity:] It has been observed that shielding materials of low atomic number, such as hydrogen, are more effective against cosmic radiation (high energy particle radiation from outer space) than, say, aluminum, because they reduce the production of secondary radiation particles \\cite{Aschwanden2010}. This can be extended to other ionizing high energy particle radiation brought by the Sun. Polyethylene, because of its hydrogenous nature, has been extensively used for shielding of crew quarters on board of the ISS. If this system were to be united to the upcycling of the hydrogen used to power the hydrogen-based external propulsion engine proposed in this ETIR report in the ``Getting There'' problem space, as well as the upcycling of waste water inherently produced in the system, greater achievements might be introduced in the travelling phase. In order to establish a shielding system for optimal colonization of other planets, research in the realm of synthetic biology might lead us to the engineering of microrgnisms that can produce highly hydrogenous biopolymers or the duration of our stay. 

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] nanotechnology, biotechnology

\\item[Grand Challenges:] Getting There, Staying There

\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] Ability to prediction solar flares and coronal mass ejections ahead of bursts would enable for preventive measures to be taken in time for reinforcement of protection. 

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] Complete radiation protection would enable for a better quality of life on other planets

\\item[Who is doing it:] 
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item Shavers Laboratories at NASA Langley Research Center (Hampton) and NASA Johnson Space Center (Houston)
\\item Aschwanden laboratories at Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center, Solar \\& Astrophysics Laboratory (Palo Alto, CA) and McTiernan laboratories at Space Sciences Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley
\\end{enumerate}

\\item[Time Scale:] 20 years

\\item[Convergence:] External propulsion engine, water upcycling on space shuttles and synthetic biology for microbial engineering 

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] There is no unique solution. Different approaches must be taken to make different legs of the journey possible. Ideally, there would be one shielding material everything would be made of.
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Protein Engineering for Drug Design}
\\label{bio-research}

\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] X-ray \\gls{crystallography} and electron \\gls{crystallography} in space can be used to obtain higher quality 3D and 2D crystals, respectively, of proteins engineered for specific drug target interaction.

\\item[Problem:] Protein \\gls{crystallography} is a science in its own right. The process of making a crystal is laborious and the protocol not automatable as it is slightly different for each protein. Not only, the same method cannot be deployed for soluble and insoluble (or membrane) proteins since the types of crystals that they generate are different. On average only one over ten proteins yields crystals suitable for structure determination \\cite{Vergara2005}.

\\item[Opportunity:] Increasing the success rate of protein \\gls{crystallography} using space.

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] X-ray \\gls{crystallography}, Transmission Electron Microscope

\\item[Grand Challenges:] Human exploration

\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] Having crystallisation facilities on board of a space shuttle or space station will enable the analysis of any molecule whose atoms can be arranged in solids. Asteroid composition as well as planet soil compositions can be analysed this way, by sampling first, crystallizing and then imaging.

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:]

\\item[Who is doing it:]
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item Zagari laboratories at the University of Naples ``Federico II''
\\item Dr. Julio Valdivia Silva's laboratories
\\end{enumerate}

\\item[Time Scale:] 5 years

\\item[Convergence:] Advances in X-ray and electron \\gls{crystallography} technologies will make the production of high quality crystals less fundamental for the generation of a high quality image. Also, methods such as fiber diffraction, powder diffraction and small-angle X-ray scattering are all technologies that are deployed as an alternative to X-ray and electron \\gls{crystallography} for the production of lower resolution images, but will grow exponentially over the next ten years and will become just as good options to X-ray and electron \\gls{crystallography}.

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] Crystal production, especially for membrane (insoluble) proteins. Advances in X-ray and electron \\gls{crystallography} technologies might result
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Genome Sequencing/Microarrays for Detection of Cancer Progression}

\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] Understanding the underlying principle by which ``apoptosis,'' or programmed cell death, is re-activated in cancer cells in the absence of gravity (simulated microgravity) and use this knowledge to tackle cancer progression on Earth. 

\\item[Problem:] Cancer is a relentless enemy that has yet to be defeated. One in every eight deaths worldwide is caused by cancer \\cite{AmericanCancerSociety2010}. Finding a cure has proven challenging mostly because there is a basic lack of understanding into the molecular mechanisms underlying the disease.

\\item[Opportunity:] Culturing cancer cells in simulated micro-gravity with the Rotating Wall Vessel (RWV) has given us insights into the chance that an environment lacking gravity might re-activate apoptosis mechanisms within cells \\cite{Grimm}. ``Apoptosis'' is a term used in biology to indicate a mechanism of programmed cell death that is essential to ensure the balanced turn over of cells within healthy tissues. If switched off, as happens in most cancer types, the cells are enabled to proliferate indefinitely, eventually invading other tissues creating metastasis and causing the death of the patient. Understanding the mechanisms by which re-activation of apoptosis occurs in microgravity, we might be able to apply these to cancer cells back on Earth and produce similar results. In vivo results have been achieved in D. melanogaster (fruit fly) experiments, in which a cohort of flies carrying spontaneous tumors was flown into space for one generation (~20 days) and upon their return showed a completely reverted phenotype, that is, the tumors were absent \\cite{Fahlen2006}. 

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Biotechnology

\\item[Grand Challenges:] Gravity is one of the fundamental and universal physical parameters on Earth. Therefore, one critical scientific question is how much are organisms affected by changes in gravity and how does the answer to this question affect human space exploration and colonization? 

\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] Heart Conditions, Parkinson's Disease, Alzheimer's Disease

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] Possible insights into a cure to cancer

\\item[Who is doing it:] 
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item Elizabeth Bladder laboratories, Australian Centre for Astrobiology, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
\\item Augusto Coccoli's group in Germany at the University of Berlin
\\end{enumerate}

\\item[Time Scale:] 5 years

\\item[Convergence:] AI/robotics to ensure automatic manipulation of life support systems for in vivo validation experiments in mice, which will be fundamental for the proof of principle. Also, as nanotechnology hits the knee of the curve, the fast and efficient delivery of vectors carrying a possible cure - such as DNA sequences made to replace existing damaged ones - will be made possible. An increase in the efficacy of simulated microgravity devices will allow for experiments to be conducted with a better degree of accuracy on Earth. 

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] Simulated microgravity is not a perfect model for zero gravity, as shown in the studies by Julio Valdiva and others, in which the gene expression pattern of the same cell culture in microgravity and space showed poor correlation.

\\end{description} 

\\subsubsection{Space Standardization}
\\label{ipip}
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] Create standards for software, hardware, and communication in space.

\\item[Problem:] The space community is poised at a similar position to the position of computer users when there were only a handful of computers in the world. Every space mission we make is different and independent. The physical connectivity of the earliest networks such as \\gls{ARPANET}, and the data connectivity enabled by standardisation of communication protocols, enabled the internet technology explosion we still enjoy today. We are in a similar position in space now, barely wetting our toes on the cosmic ocean, needing to begin to prepare for the voyage ahead.

\\item[Opportunity:] The time has come to develop hardware, software, and communications standards that enable a distributed communications and functional network in space. This will inspire new innovations in space (similar to creating the internet protocols and letting the ``Youtubes'' and ``Amazons'' develop). We would ideally not need to force anyone to adopt this model, but rather by simply connecting to this network and using the same protocols the user is granted huge benefits of not needing to develop certain components themselves.

This is not a business model any more than \\gls{Vint} Cerf's standardization of internet protocols was a revenue source. However we could create specific businesses and release them in tandem with this idea, showing the possibilities without limiting the standardization structure to any given business model. 
In a sense this tandem approach comprises opening the floodgates and riding the wave out.

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] This can be viewed as an enabler of exponential technologies of the future. 

\\item[Grand Challenges:] Getting There, Staying There, Human Exploration, Robotic Exploration

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] As humanity spreads into the solar system, this will be both an extension of the internet (and just as indispensible), and a framework for hardware and software that accelerates and innovates growth. For example, we may start with swarm satellites around earth that have standard positioning and inter-communications protocols. Then we have swarm satellites around Mars (the ``flies''). Then we have many autonomous builder robots that create human habitats on mars (the ``ants''), and the fact that the ``ants'' and ``flies'' are distributed systems that speak the same language and talk about their relative and absolute positions, etc, in the same way, enables quick creation and design iteration.

\\item[Who is doing it:]
Vint Cerf is working with \\gls{JPL} on the Interplanetary Internet, and NASA has repurposed some of their spacecraft for communication for more modern missions (1). However if the early internet was forced to grow by repurposing, retrofitting, and reverse engineering each computer whenever you add a new one, it would not enable the explosive internet phenomenon we see today. This is currently mission-by-mission and is not on a large scale.

\\item[Time Scale:] The first versions of these standards can be released in 1-2 years, in tandem with flexible pico-satellite businesses. However just like internet protocols these standards need to be rigid enough to be useful, yet organic enough to be able to adapt to changing needs.

\\item[Convergence:] 

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] Monetary. Rather than creating the YouTube or the Amazon of space, we'd be creating the Internet of space, upon which other successes ride. Without tandem applications, this could be a huge bottleneck.

\\cite{ipsnig}
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Swarm Satellites}
\\label{swarm}
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] A Swarm of Satellites in \\gls{LEO} provide a ``plug-and-play'' platform for space-based applications.

\\item[Problem:] Providing space-based services to earth requires today a huge investment in infrastructure, and space-based services are therefore either very expensive or restricted to those with very massive markets.

\\item[Opportunity:] A cloud of micro-satellites positioned as a distributed, open platform for the creation of space-based applications in radar imaging and communications can revolutionize the way we think about building space-based services and applications. Initially in \\gls{LEO}, a cloud like this could expand to support our colonization and exploration efforts in the solar system.

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Computing, Networks, AI, Robotics

\\item[Grand Challenges:] Getting There, Staying There

\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] Swarms of robots on the moon, swarms of asteroid-prospecting / asteroid-mining robots; nano/femtosatellites; satellite-on-a-phone;

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:]New, low-cost, very targeted space-based services can affect positively the lives of billions. The current Commercial Satellites/Services market is a 160 Billion dollars a year market (including mass-marketed services such as Satellite TV and GPS services), the availability of a platform like the one we suggest has the potential to revolutionize this market, helping it grow by an order of magnitud. Also, we predict that the ability to create space-based applications without fixed infrastructure cost will have the biggest effect in developing countries/economies, both for communications and as a tool to leverage agriculture, fishing, primary goods extraction and processing, disaster monitoring and emergency response.

\\item[Who is doing it:]
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item The \\gls{Techsat21} Project attempted to launch a spaceborne sparse array for radar, but was cancelled.
\\item Cubesats are open-source micro-satellites being built by universities and small companies.
\\item DARPA is funding a ``Fractionated Spacecraft'' program, attempting to create a inter-communicating sparse array of spacecraft. The second phase of the program was awarded to Orbital Sciences, along with IBM and \\gls{JPL}, in December 2009.
\\end{enumerate}

\\item[Time Scale:] This platform can be built today.

\\item[Convergence:] This technologies will be able to benefit in the future from advances in Nano-Materials for energy harvesting and storage; also, the concept would benefit greatly from cheap launch

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:]
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item Precise Positioning in orbit for the purposes of Sparse Phased-Arrays for Radar requires the development of new algorithms that leverage the collective of the swarm to increase definition.
\\item Space Debris is an important problem, and although the micro-satellites will de-orbit naturally in the course of a few years, doubling the number of active satellites in orbit requires significant study.
\\end{enumerate}
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Supercomputers in Space }
\\label{supercom}
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] Data centers and supercomputers in space stations.
\\item[Problem:] Time lag between Earth and the sent missions, too much data is lost because it has not been captured the moment it happened, future missions to further planets would be difficult if there's not a base station that can communicate, receive and send information directly.
\\item[Opportunity:] 
Lots of data can be gathered and detected from space (Temperature variations, radiation, cosmic rays, etc.). Different simulations can be done efficiently in space, and direct communication can be achieved between future robotic exploration missions and the base space stations.
\\item[Grand Challenges:] Staying there, human exploration, robot exploration
\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] Computing, memory, programming, processing power, strong AI, narrow AI
\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] 
\\item[Who is doing it:]
\\item[Time Scale:] 10-20 years
\\item[Convergence:] \\gls{AGI}, Narrow AI, Computation, Transistors, Quantum Computation, Memory, Solar Power, processing power
\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] Computation power, Launching, Cost, Maintenance, Politics, AI
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{CAD with Space Physics Simulation} 
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] A space version of \\gls{CAD}/multiphysics with space-physics simulation (microgravity, radiation, insulation, vacuum sealing, etc.)

\\item[Problem:] Reduce product development cycles by reducing time to design and test spacecraft, tools, technologies and habitat designs.

\\item[Opportunity:] Standardize a platform for rapid design and prototyping for commercial space, research and education.

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] AI, Robotics, Computing and Networks.

\\item[Grand Challenges:] Getting There, Staying There

\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] 3D printing in-space

% \\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:]-

\\item[Who is doing it:] To some extent, Ansys and Autodesk, but a specific space engineering product or profile does not exist today.

\\item[Time Scale:] \x3c5 years

\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Radiator / Nanotube Arranged in a ``Forest''}
\\label{thermal-materials}
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] Generating electricity, or controlling temperature in space can depend on the thermal properties of radiators.

\\item[Problem:] Radiators can be large, heavy, or their properities can be degraded by contamination.

\\item[Opportunity:] Single-Walled Carbon Nanotubes (SWCNT), arranged in a ``forest'' have very high absorptivity to light and other electromagnetic radiation, and very good thermal conductive properties. This could reduce the size of or increase the performance of existing radiators. Bucky paper \\cite{Wang2008, nanolab, Wardle2008} represents a form of material currently in production that could serve this role.

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Nanotechnology

\\item[Grand Challenges:] Robotic Exploration, Staying There

\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] Structural nanomaterials, nanotubes, graphene

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] As a thermal conductor: Graphitic materials such as nanotubes have up to an order of magnitude better thermal conductivity than silver (the metal with the highest thermal conductivity), allowing fast dissipation of heat. As an absorber: Current black paints have absorptivities of about 0.94 \\cite{solaracfaq}, but SWCNT have absorptivity up to 0.99, which may be useful for example on baffles on the insides of space telescopes to absorb stray light.

\\item[Who is doing it:]
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item Scientists Harold Kroto from the University of Sussex, and Robert Curl Jr. and Richard Smalley from Rice University shared the 1996 Noble Prize in Chemistry for their work on fullerenes.
\\item The Florida Advanced Center for Composite Technologies (FACCT or FAC2T) directed by Ben Wang, Professor of Industrial Engineering at the Florida A\\&M University-FSU College of Engineering, have carried out pioneering research on the properties, bulk manufacture, integration into nanocomposites, and applications of
'buckypaper' since the year 2000, when Dr. Wang was first introduced to it. \\cite{solaracfaq}
\\item Tsinghua-Foxconn Nanotechnology Research Center and Department of Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, People's Republic of China \\cite{Wang2008}
\\item Arguably the world's most renoun expert on large-scale nanotube ribbons, formed from drawing and weaving nanotubes, is Ray Baughman at the Nanotech Institute at UT-Dallas. He pioneered a technique to make carbon nanotube sheets and yarns \\cite{nanotech}
\\item However carbon nanotubes are fragile and often must be embedded in a polymer or ceramic matrix. Pioneers of nanotube-embedded ceramics include Robert Davis \\cite{Suhr2008} and Pulickel Ajayan \\cite{Hutchison2010}, and Eric A. Verploegen for nanotube-embedded polymers.
\\end{enumerate}

\\item[Time Scale:] These materials have been produced in the laboratory for several years, and are even available for purchase \\cite{nanolab}. It appears that they may be ready for a demonstration application in the near-term.

\\item[Convergence:] Being in the area of nano-materials, this technology could benefit from advances in nano-scale assembly.

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] Bare forests or woven nanotubes (such as those made by Ray Baughman) are very fragile. Also, making good thermal contact to the nanotubes appears to be the greatest challenge in wicking heat away from desired areas.
\\cite{buckypapernano}
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Psychological Well Being for Humans in Space: Neurofeedback}
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] Neurofeedback for psychological well-being

\\item[Problem:] Stress, deprivation, isolation, and confinement constitute major risks for the physical and mental health of space explorers during the missions. However, limited resources are available for psychological treatments in space.

\\item[Opportunity:] The affordability and use of tools such as \\gls{fMRI} and \\gls{EEG} elucidate the spatial and temporal elements of neuronal activity. The increase in graphical computational power and the improvement in 3D perception devices make the participants immerse more in a \\gls{VR} environment.

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Neural Technologies and Medicine and Computing and Networking

\\item[Grand Challenges:] Staying There, Space Exploration

\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] Cyberspace Worlds

\\item[Estimate of Potential Benefit:] Utilizing the real-time noninvasive neural signals recorded, neurofeedback and virtual reality will help the subjects to learn how to control over their own brain activation \\cite{deCharms2008}. Success can be also found in the treatment of attention deficit disorder, pain control and reduction in anxiety, which may occur during long space exploration.

\\item[Who is doing it:] 
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item Omneuron demonstrated that subjects were able to learn through training sessions to control pain perception and pain control \\cite{deCharms2008}
\\item Biofeedback training has been adopted for over 20 years in training astronauts to resist motion sickness \\cite{Clement2008}.
\\item Institute for Creative Technologies of the University of Southern California uses VR to treat stress in Iraq war veterans \\cite{Sutliff2005}. 
\\end{enumerate}

\\item[Time Scale:] 1 year

\\item[Convergence:] The synergy found where the creation of new computers, sensors, and communication devices and research relating to new biological and medical technologies converge will extend the use of elaborate new tools to the complex operational environments facing today\u2019s and tomorrow's astronauts. 

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] Today's \\gls{fMRI} machines offer the highest spatial resolution for the noninvasive study of human brain activity. However, their large size and weight makes both inadequate for measurements in real-world operational environments. Currently, \\gls{EEG} represents the only available portable, brain-imaging equipment suitable for this purpose; yet, it has the drawback of a relatively modest spatial resolution regarding the source localization of measured activity..

\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Medical Treatments in Space: Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation}
\\label{neuro-treat}
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] Neurological Disease Treatment

\\item[Problem:] Besides the late effects of long term radiation exposure, stress, deprivation, isolation, and confinement constitute major risks for the physical and mental health of space explorers during the missions. However, limited resources are available for medical treatments in space.

\\item[Opportunity:] \\gls{TMS} is a noninvasive brain stimulation technique which showed promising results in treating a range of neurological diseases \\cite{Ridding2007}.

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Neural Technology and Computing

\\item[Grand Challenges:] Staying There.

\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] Stem Cell Therapy

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:]Various conditions are currently treated successfully with repetitive \\gls{TMS}, such as stroke, Parkinson's disease, depression, dystonia, tinnitus, epilepsy, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, schizophrenia, addiction, obsessive-compulsive disorder, Tourette's syndrome, and memory dysfunction \\cite{Ridding2007}. \\gls{TMS} is promising to provide easier treatments to a variety of neural diseases in space given limited medical resources.

\\item[Who is doing it:] \\gls{TMS} is already \\gls{FDA}-approved and widely used in depression treatment \\cite{Ridding2007}.

\\item[Time Scale:] 1 year

\\item[Convergence:] In addition, utilizing the real-time noninvasive neural signals recorded, neurofeedback and virtual reality will help the subjects to learn how to control over their own brain activation \\cite{deCharms2008}. Success can be also found in the treatment of attention deficit disorder, pain control and reduction in anxiety. 

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] \\gls{TMS} stimulation spreads and lacks selectivity. 

\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{External Propulsion}
\\label{extprop}
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] Launching payload into \\gls{LEO} with external propulsion space launch system

\\item[Problem:] Today space access is too expensive and unreliable as discuss in Space Access Problem Space discussion.

\\item[Opportunity:] Make space access affordable for medium- and small-sized businesses; put space on an exponential curve of growth through introduction of exponential technologies into launch system

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Material manufacturing and nanotechnology; computing; electronics

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] Development and reduction to practice of external propulsion space launch system can bring the cost of space launch down to below \\$1000 per kg into \\gls{LEO}. Space launch can become reliable, cheap and convenient. 

\\item[Timescale:] 5-7 years

\\item[Challenges:] Development of a heat-exchange engine; development of beaming facility that connects energy station on the ground with the launch vehicle; public acceptance of a paradigm shifting technology.

\\end{description}

\\subsection{20-year Time Horizon}

\\subsubsection{Space Based Solar Power}
\\label{sbsp}
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] Collect solar energy from space and beam it to Earth.

\\item[Problem:] Today, with a global power consumption of 12TW \\cite{Seboldt2004}, we are reaching the end of the energy supplies we have come to use so commonly. It is expected that by year 2020 the global power consumption will be nearly 20TW. It is becoming more expensive and more risky to search for fossil fuels to power our cities, and the effects the combustion of these fuels is having on the environment is becoming awfully damaging. Over 85% of the power used today comes from fossil fuels \\cite{Seboldt2004389}. It is generally accepted that the time has come to focus on powering our world on completely renewable resources, and there are many resources that can be harnessed; tidal currents, wind, geothermal, and of course solar. Solar power is unquestionably the ultimate solution to our energy demands. In fact we have always relied on solar energy, we are just prefer to use it in it's stored form of a battery called fossil fuels.

\\item[Opportunity:] The most promising way to harness solar energy to power the entire globe is through a technology called Space Based Solar Power (SBSP). The idea is not new, in fact it was first hypothesized nearly forty years ago. SBSP simply takes advantage of the large amount of solar energy striking the Earth from orbit, which is 1.366 kW/m$^2$. A SBSP plant will collect gigawatts of energy in orbit, electromagnetically beam it to the Earth at a suggested frequency of 2.45 GHz \\cite{Chaudhary2010}, and then use it in a multitude of forms. A single kilometer wide band of geosynchronous Earth orbit receives enough solar flux annually to equal that of all the energy within all the known oil reserves on Earth today \\cite{NationalSpaceSociety2007}.

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] SBSP can provide solar energy to anywhere on Earth 24 hours a day. Every nation on Earth will be taken out of the dark ages once this system becomes viable.

\\item[Who is doing it:] Space Energy is a commercial company building a prototype SBSP system to be launched to LEO \\cite{SpaceEnergy2010}. JAXA also has plans to build a SBSP program.

\\item[Current Bottlenecks:] There are several advancements that Exponential technologies could deliver that would enable SBSP to be economical, at which point it will unarguably be undertaken. The first obstacle is access to space. If a new form, or at least cheaper form, of space access were to be implemented the materials to build the SBS plant could be taken to space.

Another option however would be to utilize the materials on the moon, asteroids, or space debris to construct the SBS plant. Since the current launch cost is 10,000 dollars per Kg, as soon as materials are brought from anywhere but Earth the cost of the endeavor decreases by nearly 10,000 dollars! In fact, a Lunar Power Beaming Station could be most effective as lunar materials would be used to build the station without having to move the materials off the lunar surface, however the timescale on such a project is far off. This is because with todays technology it would be too costly to build the structures on the moon, transmit the power to GEO satellites, that could then redirect the power to rectennas on Earth. It also seems unlikely that a government space program will focus on this goal in the near term, and it would take a government agency to afford such a project \\cite{Seboldt2004}.

Another obstacle limiting SBSP is that most plans suggest photovoltaics as the source of capturing solar energy to then be converted to microwave. \\gls{PV} technology is however quite inefficient, with maximum efficiencies on space rated \\gls{PV} cells at around 25%. Sure, the efficiencies of \\gls{PV} is increasing continuously, but there is a limit. Fortunately there are other ways of harnessing solar energy, that can also reduce the necessary size, weight, and cost of the SBS plant. Concentrating solar energy to a large Stirling engine (see \\autoref{stirling}) is one example. This concentrated energy will provide even higher temperature extremes than normal and would thus create an abundance of energy. The only downside is that while \\gls{PV} converts solar energy directly to electricity, the sterling engine however creates mechanical energy that must then be converted to electrical energy with losses. Still though, concentrated solaris currently more efficient than \\gls{PV}'s.

\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Space Based Stirling Engine}
\\label{stirling}
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] A novel method to harness solar energy on the moon, asteroid, or space using sterling engines

\\item[Problem:] Are there other ways to harness the power of the sun other than photo voltaic? A method that is more efficient and possibly offers a better means of energy storage?

\\item[Opportunity:] Stirling engines offer an efficient means of energy production but are limited in use due to the large temperature differential needed, the environment of space however offers the temperature differentials needed to make this form of energy production applicable. 

For Stirling engines, the energy can roughly be estimated as $E \\approx C_{p}(T_{2}-T_{1})$, where $E$ = energy, $C_p$ = pressure coefficient, and $T_2 - T_1$ = temperature differential. Since no combustion takes place within a Sterling engine the energy output is much less compared to the combustion engine for most conditions, however, when the temperature differential is on the order of hundreds of degrees Kelvin we find larger energy outputs. 

On the lunar surface the temperature difference between the shaded and unshaded regions is roughly 530 K. A Stirling engine could operate on the lunar surface with the hot side facing the direction of the sun and the cold side being on the underside in the shadow of the device. With the use of energy storage devices a lunar Sterling engine could supply energy to a lunar base while also storing residual energy to be used during the Lunar night. A lunar day/night lasts 14 Earth days.

The same idea can be applied in open space or orbit with a bit of attitude control to keep the hot and cold sides in proper orientation. And with advancements in nanotechnology, such as Buckypapers, the hot and cold side of the device can be constructed to be perfectly absorptive or reflective to maximize temperature extremes.

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] When a lunar base is established it will be very important to harness as much solar energy as possible during the 14 Earth day long Lunar day since the Lunar night is just as long. Storing energy for the lunar night is also important. The sterling engine offers some unique methods to store the extra energy for the lunar night and possibly create more abundance of energy compared to \\gls{PV}'s.
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{3D Printer in Orbit}
\\label{3dprint}
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] a \\gls{3D printer} in orbit will be able to print antennas,
reflectors and solar cells.

\\item[Problem:] Sending up antennas, reflectors and solar cells to orbit is
both expensive, difficult and inefficient. Expensive in proportion to
the weight, difficult to build structures that will stand the rigour of
launch, and inefficient because the structures are built to support high
accelerations and high Gs, while once in orbit all that structural mass
is unnecessary.

\\item[Opportunity:] A \\gls{3D printer} in orbit could print lighter antennas,
reflectors and solar cells without cumbersome structural restrictions,
using minimum materials. The supply materials to the \\gls{3D printer} could be
either sent from Earth (in high gravity launches); refurbished from existing
orbiting spacecraft, antennas and reflectors; or eventually provisioned
from asteroid mining.

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Nanotechnology, Robotics.

\\item[Grand Challenges:] Robotic Exploration, Human Exploration, Staying There

\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] Asteroid Mining; 3D Printing; In-Orbit
Refurbishing

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:]Lighter and bigger structures in
space for communications, energy harvesting and others.

\\item[Who is doing it:] -

\\item[Time Scale:] 10-15 years.

\\item[Convergence:] Robotics, Computing and Networks, Materials, AI.

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] Making a 3D printer work in $\\mu$gravity, robotic manipulators to extract and assemble 3D-printed parts without humans present
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{3D Printing in Space} 
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] 
3D printing space exploration tools and parts on an ``as-needed'' basis.

\\item[Problem:] 
Manufacturing space exploration tools is a long, laborious process. A simple example is in which a basic tool bag can take months to years to build and cost over \\$100,000 \\cite{Bryner2008}.

\\item[Opportunities:] 
Some metals, ceramics, and plastics can be printed with current 3D printing technologies here on Earth, and the palette of materials is expanding exponentially. However, the current 3D printing model will not work in microgravity environments. The technologies today use an electron beam in a vacuum chamber to locally melt parts of a layer of metal dust to build up the structure voxel by voxel, layer by layer. Without gravity to form the layer of metal dust, this technique is impossible. 

\\item[Who is doing it:] 
A new technique called Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication (EBF3) pioneered at NASA Langley overcomes this challenge by extruding a metal directly from a tip \\cite{Dillow2009,TechnologyGateway2008,Banke2009}. This is a promising technology but needs to improve: the extruding machinery needs to become lighter and its resolution needs to increase. However these are merely problems of engineering that will improve with the exponential increase in the strength of materials. 

\\item[Enabling technologies:] 
Exponential technologies that will impact 3D printing in space include: 
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item Network and computing systems (leading to faster fabrication). 
\\item AI \\& robotics (automating the process of creating the software on a tool that needs to be created. For example, a 3D scan a machine that is being repaired, and then layout the mock-up of the tool needed to repair the machine). 
\\item Nanotechnology (creating a more precise fabrication process and less waste of materials). 
\\end{enumerate}

\\item[Time Scale:] The Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication (EBF3) equipment has been successfully tested on the ground \\cite{Taminger2006}. Although the ground equipment is fairly bulky, a scaled down version of EBF3 was created and flown to in near-microgravity on NASA's Reduced Gravity Aircraft \\cite{Dillow2009}.

\\item[Example 3D Printing Scenario:]
In the near term, the greatest use of 3D printing in human space missions is printing tools or components as they are needed. Custom-built tools means fewer tools taken to orbit with less redundancy in number of tools taken. In the longer term, 3D printers are compelling and enabling tools for human colonization. The ability of either robots or humans to be able to print what is necessary using local materials is a compelling reason to pursue this technology.

\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{3D Printing Cheap Small Mining Craft}

\\begin{description}

\\item[Application:]

Generating small, cheap, fairly reliable mining spacecraft for obtaining
valuable and essential resources from asteroids.

\\item[Problem:]

Current manufacturing processes are expensive and require a great
deal of manpower. Therefore, extreme care must be taken to make sure
that asteroid mining missions do not fail, which drives the cost up
even more. If mining spacecraft could be produced at a fraction of
the cost (and a fraction of the size), one mission (one payload) could
easily launch 100 or even 1,000 mining spacecraft, each to a different
asteroid. This would dramatically increase the chance of success for
the mission overall, as well as the fruits of each mission, while
simultaneously decreasing the cost of the mission as a whole.

\\item[Opportunity:]

Three-dimensional printing technology has already dramatically cut
the costs and time involved in manufacturing products in several industries.
As the field advances, 3D printers will be capable of printing with
more materials, cheaper, and faster. Shortly, these printers will
be capable of simply printing entire mining spacecraft. Effectively,
the impact will be equivalent or even better than instantaneously
erecting a mass-manufacturing plant for mining spacecraft for \\$0.
As a result, the cost of producing small and effective mining spacecraft
will drop sharply.

\\item[Exponential Technologies:]

Nanotechnology, Computing

\\item[Grand Challenges:]

Robotic Exploration, Staying There, Resources

\\item[Other Connected Ideas:]

In order to make this idea work, it will also be necessary to combine
the 3D printing technologies with miniaturization, sufficient automation,
and robotics.

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:]

It is estimated that there are trillions of dollars worth of materials
available in near-Earth asteroids. Bringing these materials back successfully
would not only greatly benefit the mining entity financially, but
it would also unlock billions of people on the planet from being restricted
by the terrestrial shortage of the materials that are abundant in
asteroids.

\\item[Who is Doing It:]

\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item Professor Hod Lipson at the Cornell Computational Synthesis Library
heads the Fab@Home project, which is an open source project that has
already resulted in the 3D printing of part of a working robot in
2009\\cite{fabathome}.
\\item Hod Lipson, along with Jordan B. Pollack, actually succesfully created
robots using 3D printing technology as a part of The Golem Project
at Brandeis University in the year 2000\\cite{golem}.
\\item Reshko, Mason, and Nourbakhsh have successfully used rapid-protoyping
technology to create small robots in the year 2000\\cite{reshko}.
\\item Won, DeLaruentis, and Marvodis at Rutgers University are also working
on rapidly prototyping robotic systems\\cite{won}.
\\end{enumerate}

\\item[Time Scale:]

We are just now seeing rapid prototyping technology over the last
few years that is capable of producing components of mining machines
already. We project that within the next 20 years it will be possible
to rapidly prototype an entire robotic mining system using 3D printing
technology..

\\item[Convergence:]

This opportunity lies at the intersection of advances in 3D printing,
design software, materials, microprocessor miniaturization, and robotics.

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:]

Rapid prototyping and 3D printing is accelerating a fast clip. Since
the 3D printing of parts of a spacecraft is already highly feasible,
there are no significant bottlenecks that would have to be overcome
to achieve this goal.
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{AI-powered Mining Craft}
\\label{auto-explore}
\\begin{description}

\\item[Application:]

Mining asteroids cheaply by letting the mining spacecraft handle most,
if not all of the decision-making.

\\item[Problem:]

Presently, all space missions require a certain degree of human control.
By cutting humans out of the loop, asteroid mining becomes much more
viable, not only because it is cheaper, but because thousands of missions
can be in operation concurrently.

\\item[Opportunity:]

By leveraging contemporary advances in AI and robotics, it will be
possible to create cheaper asteroid mining systems that perform better
on their own, without human intervention, than perhaps even human-guided
missions would. Since asteroid mining consists primarily of performing
mechanical tasks, contemporary AI and robotics greatly advance this
field.

\\item[Exponential Technologies:]

Computing, AI \\& Robotics

\\item[Grand Challenges:]

Robotic Exploration, Staying There, Resources

\\item[Other Connected Ideas:]

This project is connected closely to the project of 3D-printing and
rapidly prototyping asteroid mining spacecraft.

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:]

The ability to launch a swarm of concurrent, cheap asteroid mining
missions without human intervention will allow the asteroid mining
problem to finally become economically viable.

\\item[Who is Doing It:]
\\hfill
\\begin{enumerate}
\\item Countless academic research groups and companies are working on producing
better autonomous robotic systems. For a good overview, see Bekey's
\\emph{Autonomous Robots}, published in 2005, which surveys over 300
contemporary systems\\cite{bekey}.
\\item As an example for a future-looking autonomous robotics company, Willow
Garage, a company based in Menlo Park, CA, is working on developing
a standardized robotic operating system as well as a general-purpose
robot that could be eventaully applied for usage in asteroid mining.
They have just this year given 11 unites to leading research institutions
in robotics\\cite{willow}.
\\end{enumerate}

\\item[Time Scale:]

There are already many narrowly-intelligent artificial systems, as
well as many successful robotic applications here on Earth and in
space. It is estimated that in less than a decade, these technologies
will be applied commercially to asteroid mining.

\\item[Convergence:]

This opportunity lies at the convergence between Artificial Intelligence
and robotics.

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:]

While there are many significant bottlenecks inherent in designing
better AI and better robotics, the AI and robotics systems that are
currently present on the Earth in 2010 are more than sufficient to
dramatically advance the asteroid mining endeavour.
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Asteroid Composition Detection with Microbes and Crystallography}
\\begin{description}
\\item[Application:] Engineered fluorescent microbes and \\gls{crystallography} to detect asteroid composition for asteroid mining
\\item[Problem:] Mining an asteroid entails a huge investment of money, efforts and time. Also, the composition of an asteroid varies much and selecting the right one to mine is a very important step. Heavy metals, some of which very rarely occuring on Earth, i. e. platinum, are heavily represented in certain types of asteroids \\cite{Kargel} which should therefore be preferentially picked for mining purposes and the contents brought back to Earth. Importantly, the current periodic table of the elements could be revisited and a new one might be created with all the new elements, if any, that asteroids might carry
\\item[Opportunity:] Exploit the raw materials from asteroids to address the current shortage of supply of heavy metals on Earth and discover new elements that have not to date reached the Earth's surface that might be represented on the surface of asteroids. A way to detect the composition of the asteroid before docking, is to release engineered microbes that, if in contact with specifically sought for metals/materials, would fluoresce at a particular wavelength corresponding to a specific color. If multiple microbes servicing to detect specific materials were to be released at the same time, then the asteroid would start fluorescing at a combination of wavelengths that could be detected by a \\gls{CCD} camera and resolved in the single components. The intensity of each fluorescence, given the same amount of microbes is released, will indicate the percent composition for each material within the asteroid. Detection of new materials could be addressed by having a \\gls{crystallography} machine on board that could produce an image of all the crystals (i. e. solid array of atoms) on the asteroid.

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Synthetic Biology, \\Gls{crystallography} (X ray, powder diffraction, fiber diffraction, small-angle), \\gls{TEM}, Communication technology (i. e. space internet)
\\item[Grand Challenges:] Human Exploration
\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] The delivery of the microbes and the minining could be done through machines with robotic arms along the same lines of the ``Da Vinci'' ones developed by Intuitive Surgical, which could be remotely controlled from Earth
\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] Filling in on the shortage of resources on Earth and discover new and perhaps useful elements to bring back to Earth for specific purposes, i.e. metallic and materials industry
\\item[Who is doing it:]
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item NASA stardust mission
\\item Japan's Hayabusa probe
\\item European Space Agency's comet-chasing Rosetta spacecraft mission
\\end{enumerate}
\\item[Time Scale:] 10 years
\\item[Convergence:] AI, Robotics, Communication technology
\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] Docking the asteroid to start the mining, communication lag from asteroid to Earth if robotic arms were to be remotely controlled, synthetising microbes that have sensitivity for the right metals to be analysed
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Lunar Habitat-Building Robot}
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] A lunar-based robot that can build structures with
vitrified regolith for lunar-habitat development

\\item[Problem:] Preparing habitats for human colonies in the moon requires
structural materials to be either shipped to the moon or fabricated
locally.

\\item[Opportunity:] Mixing small metallic nano-particles with lunar
regolith and applying microwaves to heat and vitrify the mix, or other
means of regolith vitrification could be used to produce
macro-structures to be integrated into habitat design.

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Robotics, Nanotechnology

\\item[Grand Challenges:] Staying There, Human Exploration, Robotic Exploration

\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] 3D printing in space

% \\item[Who is doing it:] -

\\item[Time Scale:] 10--20 years.

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] Technology development
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Multi-Surface Robots}
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] New range of various robotic designs that are able to transverse lands or oceans.
\\item[Problem:] few rovers and robots have been sent for space exploration. Many extrasolar planets may be covered with water, in the future ``swimmer robots'' would be of extreme use.
\\item[Opportunity:] 
\\item[Grand Challenges:] Robotic exploration, staying there
\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] swarm intelligence
\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] 
\\item[Who is doing it:] Romela lab (Virginia Tech) is working on new design ideas \\cite{AUV2010}
\\item[Time Scale:] 5--15 years.
\\item[Convergence:] 
\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] Design 
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Brain Machine Interface for Robotics}
\\label{bmi}
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] Multitasking at work and communication

\\item[Problem:] Limited labor in starting up a new colony in space.

\\item[Opportunity:] Brain machine interface should be utilized to remote control multiple robots and communicate directly with the crew. Researchers have already demonstrated that we can control computer cursors and even robotic arms by decoding neural signals, such as the DEKA arm. Brain waves were also demonstrated to be able to be able to classify a subset of words in internal speech \\cite{Suppes1997}.

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Neurotechnology, Biotechnology, Computing

\\item[Grand Challenges:] Human Exploration, Staying There

\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] Robotics and Communication

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:]Real-time decoding of the resulting neural signals will help us to handle multiple tasks and communicate with multiple colleagues more efficiently.

\\item[Time Scale:] 10-20 years.

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] Currently, EEG represents the only available portable, non-invasive brain-imaging equipment suitable for this purpose; yet, it has the drawback of a relatively modest spatial resolution regarding the source localization of measured activity.

\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{AI and Synthetic Biology}
\\label{aisyn}
\\begin{description}
\\item[Problem:]
Sustaining life on other planets would require establishing basic living conditions, including gravity and radiation protection, providing basic human needs, including breathable air, water and food, and maintaining a clean healthy living environment. This also partially 
applies to long space trips. Synthetic Biology enables designing new organisms that could help in many of the areas above. However, there is a gap between the DNA codes we can ``write,'' and the real world requirements.

\\item[Opportunity:] AI could help bridge that gap. Treating DNA as a language, with its syntax, grammar and semantics, AI could enable definition of organism ``functionality'' in ``natural language'' - high level description, which is automatically translated all the way to DNA that can be ``written'' into a new organism. Such an AI driven Synthetic Bio system would take into account all the constraints, at all levels - from gene's, through RNA, DNA, and folding, all the way to the
phenotype level. 

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Synthetic Biology, AI bringing the paradigm shift

\\item[Grand Challenges:] Staying There, Getting There

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] Synthetic organisms could help producing and recycling air, water and food, as well as facilitate terraforming.

\\item[Time scale:] Currently we know how to write around 1 million genes, 
sufficient to modify single cell organisms. As an exponential technology, we expect to be able to design single-cell organisms within 5 to 10 years simple multi-cell organisms within 10 to 15 years. 

\\item[Convergence:] Synthetic Bio could eventually lead to enhanced humans, and human-like bio-robots.

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:]
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item Much of the constraint and mapping space between DNA level and high
level functions is not known.
\\item Resistance to artificial life forms and fear of the perils it could involve.
\\end{enumerate}
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{AI driven Synthetic Biology for space exploration} 
\\begin{description}
\\item[Problem:]
Space exploration would require a human friendly environment maintained inside a spaceship, or in a small base on another planet, for an extended period of time. This includes provision of clean air, clean water, and food.

\\item[Opportunity:]
Synthetic Biology enables the design and manufacturing of new organisms that 
would help:
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item creating and recycling air: synthetic organism/bacteria that use toxic atmosphere to produce oxygen,
\\item purifying sewer water: synthetic organisms that feed on the contaminating materials
\\item producing food: synthetic organisms that process nutrient to produce food in solid or liquid form (such as milk, pills with specific properties)
\\item In the context of space exploration, typically involving only few people, such solutions can be modular and movable, containable small/ confined/ constrained spaces - tanks, rooms, etc...
\\end{enumerate}

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] AI, Synthetic Biology
\\item[Grand Challenges:] Staying There, Getting There.
\\item [Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] Consistent, cheap and light supply of human life needs.
\\item[Time Scale:] 
Currently we know how to write around 1 million genes, sufficient to modify single cell organisms. As an exponential technology, we expect to be able to design single-cell organisms within 5-10 years simple multi-cell organisms within 10-15 years. 
\\item[Convergence:]
Synthetic biology could eventually lead to enhanced humans, and human-like bio-robots.
\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:]
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item There is a gap between the DNA codes we can ``write'' and the real world requirements. AI could help bridge that gap.
\\item Resistance to artificial life forms and fear of the perils it could involve.
\\end{enumerate}
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{AI and Synthetic Biology for Colonizing Other Planets}
\\label{terraform}
\\begin{description}
\\item[Problem:]Colonizing other planets would require establishing proper large scale living conditions for an increasingly large population, including:
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item Supply of air, water and food.
\\item Radiation protection
\\end{enumerate}

This would require massive change of the environment to suit human existential needs - terraforming. 

\\item[Opportunity:]Synthetically created organisms could help terraforming other planets 
by including:
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item Generation of an atmosphere by transforming available materials into air.
\\item Transforming local soil 
\\item Synthetic plants designed to grow in the new environment, making a food source.
\\item Generate water from locally available materials. 
\\end{enumerate}

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] AI, Biotechnology
\\item[Grand Challenges:] Staying There, Getting There
\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:]Providing human life necessities by transforming locally available materials, requiring a load of bits (information) rather than atoms (matter).
\\item[Who is doing it:]
\\item[Time Scale:] Currently we know how to write around 1 million genes, sufficient to modify single cell organisms. As an exponential technology, we expect to be able to design single-cell organisms within 5-10 years simple multi-cell organisms within 10-15 years. 
\\item[Convergence:] Synthetic Bio could eventually lead to enhanced humans, and human-like bio-robots.
\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:]
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item There is a gap between the DNA codes we can ``write'' and the real world requirements. AI could help bridge that gap.
\\item Resistance to artificial life forms and fear of the perils it could involve.
\\end{enumerate}
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Bioreactors for Terraforming}
\\label{bioreactors}

\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] The use of microorganisms genetically modified could
improve the life support systems which are necessary in the process of
soil terraforming on other planets in order to reach a sustainable
production of food, water, oxygen, and waste treatment.

\\item[Problem:] Last year marked the 40th anniversary of our first steps on
the Moon, and within next decades it is hoped that humankind will have
established a settlement on Mars. Space is a harsh environment, and
technological advancements and operational challenges, such as the
management of life-support systems, food, waste disposal, and
nutrition due to long-term confinement will be required to ensure that
humans survive interplanetary journeys and settlements \\cite{Horneck2010}. Because of this, one main challenge will be to redefine environments that cannot at the moment host life, as we know it, and turn them into habitable ones, so as to ensure the first human
colonization into space \\cite{gerlach}.

Due the life support systems do not permit long staying into space,
and the models of terraformation could take ~100 years or more, new
ideas and options using the exponential technologies are needed in
order to improve the process and shorten the time \\cite{Heppener2008}.

\\item[Opportunity:] A tiny fraction of Earth\u2019s organisms have been exposed to
the harsh conditions of spaceflight. Many specimens that have
experienced spaceflight were noticeably changed by the event. Space
biology has emerged as a critical component of successful human space
exploration, fundamental biology research, and our understanding of
the limits of life \\cite{Dubertret1987,Hendrickx2007}

Although, there are several analogs of environments and models of
possible loop close systems \\cite{Poughon2009}, the use of
microorganisms genetically modified with specific functions could
improve the efficiency and performance of the system \\cite{Kern2001}.

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Biotechnology (DNA sequencing, genetic manipulation).

\\item[Grand Challenges:] Staying There

\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] Genetic manipulation in plant, mammalian, and
human cells for similar systems. Synthetic biology.

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] The possibility of becoming any
extreme or harsh environment which is not suitable for human life into
a habitable one.

Genetically engineered microorganisms have higher performance and
better results in specific functions compared to their corresponding
wild strains \\cite{Stellwag1986}.

\\item[Who is doing it:]
\\renewcommand{\\labelenumi}{\\arabic{enumi}. }
\\renewcommand{\\labelenumii}{(\\alph{enumii})}
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate} 
\\item Genetic manipulation of microorganisms:
\\begin{enumerate}
\\item Group of Dr. Donald A. Bryant, Principal Investigator and Professor
of Biotechnology, Biochemistry and Molecular Biology. Pennsylvania
State University. USA. Since 2006, he have carried out pioneering
research on the genetic manipulation of four phyla of phototrophic
bacteria: Cyanobacteria, Chlorobi (green sulfur bacteria), Chloroflexi
(filamentous anoxygenic phototrophs), and the newly discovered
Acidobacteria.

\\item Group of Dr. David Dubnau, Investigator in Public Health Research
Institute Center, UMDNJ - New Jersey Medical School. Since 1994, he is
working on the mechanisms used for bacteria to take up environmental
DNA in macromolecular form in a process known as transforming. He uses
genetic engineering in order to improve different functions in
bacteria as well.
\\end{enumerate}
\\item Models of Terraforming and bioreactors:
\\begin{enumerate}
\\item European Space Agency and Belgian Nuclear Research Centre (SCK CEN)
projects (2010).
\\begin{itemize}
\\item The BASE (Bacterial Adaptation to Space flight Environment)
project aims to characterize the behavior of bacteria under
spaceflight conditions including cosmic radiation and microgravity.

\\item MELGEN-2 (Melissa Genetic Stability study) is involved in the
development of novel methods to detect metabolic/genomic instability,
microbial contaminants and horizontal gene transfer in the MELiSSA
loop. MELiSSA (Micro-Ecological Life Support System Alternative) is a
multidisciplinary project of the European Space Agency ESA. It aims at
the development of a bioregenerative life-support system to enable
future long duration manned space missions (e.g. to Mars) by
reconversion of organic gas, liquid and solid wastes into oxygen,
water and food. Proper functioning of the MELiSSA loop will be
dependent on the stability and axenicity of each of its compartments.

\\item MISSEX (Microbial Gene exchange in the International Space
Station) project has as aim to study the micro-organisms that are
present in confined space ships or space stations.
\\end{itemize}

\\item Group of Prof. Jeffrey T. Richards, Dynamac Corporation, University
of Florida, Space Life Sciences Laboratory, Kennedy Space Center,
Florida. He is working in hypobaric environments and its relationship
with microorganisms evaluating the implications for low-pressure in
life support systems during human exploration missions and
terraforming on Mars \\cite{Richards2006}.
\\end{enumerate}
\\end{enumerate}
\\renewcommand{\\labelenumi}{(\\alph{enumi}}
\\item[Time Scale:] The genetic manipulation is been done in the laboratory
for several years \\cite{Stellwag1986}. However, the design
of bioreactors for life support systems and terraforming, is still
theoretical or has different uses on Earth. The real application could
be in the near-term (~5 years) using the new microorganisms.

\\item[Convergence:] Robotics to ensure automatic manipulation of life support
system bioreactors. Nanoparticles could mimic the bacteria functions.
Synthetic biology.

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] Several models of terraforming, principally
Mars, using microorganisms assume that the initial stage of planetary
engineering has been accomplished, and has a denser atmosphere, in
which liquid water is stable, and a higher average surface temperature
such as the case of Mars \\cite{McKay2001}.
In addition, the use of microorganisms as a trigger of terraformation
present several ethical issues associated with bringing life to other
planet center on the possibility of indigenous life and the relative
value of a planet with or without a global biosphere \\cite{Debus2008}.
\\end{description}

\\subsection{30-year+ Time Horizon}

\\subsubsection{Nanotech Space Suit } 
\\label{nano-suit}
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] A lightweight, mobile spacesuit of tomorrow

\\item[Problem:] The spacesuits currently in use weigh hundreds of Earth pounds, take up too much space, and are extremely immobile. The immobility of the space suit and it's large mass is due to the fact that it has to protect the astronaut form the harsh environment of space. 

\\item[Opportunity:] Protecting from radiation is extremely important. Carbon Nanotube membranes could be used to make a very thin material to be worn as a radiation garment, similar to a wetsuit, but not necessarily skin tight. 

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:]Will allow future space explorers more freedom while doing extra vehicular activities.
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Nanoengineered Smart Materials}
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] Smart materials for space habitats and spacecraft with integrated sensors, morphing and self-healing properties.

\\item[Problem:] Space habitats and spacecraft are structures built in the
limit of technical capability, and subject to multiple hazards.

\\item[Opportunity:] Using nano-scale engineering, smart materials can be
developed that include, in the same structure, sensors for structural
stability and habitat conditions, and that can adapt rapidly at
different conditions. Nanomaterials with the ability to self-heal, morph
for different functionalities and respond in real time to threats like
radiation, or micrometeorites.

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Nanotechnology, AI.

\\item[Grand Challenges:] Staying There, Human Exploration, Getting There

\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] Nano-Fabricators

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:]Lighter, safer structures for use
in space, or getting there.

\\item[Who is doing it:] -

\\item[Time Scale:] 15--25 years.

\\item[Convergence:] Nano, Computing and Networks, AI.

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] Nanoassembly technology.
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Cheap Access / Space Elevator / Carbon nanotubes}
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] Cheap Reliable Access To Space 

\\item[Problem:] The cost of space access is too high for major developments to take place 

\\item[Opportunity:] With advancements in carbon nanotubes a geosynchronous satellite can be used as a space elevator, lifting payloads to orbit on a carbon nanotube wire.

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] Opens the space frontier

\\item[Bottlenecks:] Carbon nanotubes that are kilometers long need to be invented before this technology has any chance of happening.

\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Brain Machine Interfaces for Remote Sensing/Presence} 
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] -

\\item[Problem:] The problem with today's external \\glspl{BMI} is their limited resolution, inability to 
connect well to the inner parts of the brain, usability problems due to an abundance of sensors 
to be attached. Neurally connected \\glspl{BMI} afford surgery operations. \\Gls{fMRI} and other imaging 
technologies provide better resolutions, increasingly in real-time fashion.

\\item[Opportunity:] Portable as well as implanted \\glspl{BMI} with neural resolution can provide a much 
richer remote sensing experience compared to today\u2019s remote presence technologies (HMD, 
Caves, Immersion technologies, mixed reality). If remote robotics provide rich sensing 
opportunities from exploration, such experience can be reflected within the \\gls{BMI} in a much 
better fashion than today.

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Neurotechnology, Computing.

\\item[Grand Challenges:] Robotic Exploration 

\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] Neurobiology, Nano/Materials Science.

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] Full immersion with regards to remote places, wider 
bandwidth of sensing experience through real-time filters, real-time augmentation of experience.

\\item[Who is doing it:]
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item Fraunhofer IGD
\\item MIT MEDIA LAB
\\item Merl
\\end{enumerate}

\\item[Time Scale:] 5 years limited visual/retinal,10 years partial real-time, 30 years full immersion

\\item[Convergence:] Nanotechnology, Neurotechnology

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:]
Complete mapping of the brain, lasting sustainable neural/electronic connection. Representation 
resolution. High bandwidth connection to remote areas in space.
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Cheap swarm spacecraft for exploration}

\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] Mediated human exploration of space through the
extension of our bodies into swarms of robots and spacecraft.

\\item[Problem:] Exploring the solar system for fun and profit (both for
research and prospecting purposes), will be regarded more and more as a
fundamental activity in the coming decades. Findings will lead to great
riches, and people will invest heavily in this new gold-rush. However,
there are limits to human exploration: it is more risky, more expensive,
and humans can only be in one place at a time

\\item[Opportunity:] Building sensory interfaces into our spacecraft and
robots that can extend an operator's sensory input to include feedback
from a remote swarm of robotic explorers and unmanned spacecraft can
potentially extend the reach of our bodies well into the solar system,
allowing for a mediated, yet human exploration of space through other means.

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Neurotechnology, AI, Biotechnology,
Robotics, Networking.

\\item[Grand Challenges:] Robotic Exploration, Human Exploration, Getting
There, Staying There, Using Space Resources.

\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] Asteroid Mining; Robotic Exploration Swarms;

% \\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] 

\\item[Who is doing it:] -

\\item[Time Scale:] 30 years--

\\item[Convergence:] Bits, Neuroscience and Genetics, Robotics and AI

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] Latency-tolerant brain-machine interfaces and networks.
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Emotionally intelligent robot/humanoid for astronauts}
\\label{companion}
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] Developing an Emotionally Intelligent Robot/Humanoid that serves as an astronaut companion to mitigate the effects of prolonged staying in confined spaces.
\\item[Problem:] It is hard to stay in confined space for an extended amount of time with other people. Although astronauts are required to be socially outgoing persons who are excellent team players, and are cable of adapting to new changing environments, stress induced from such a compact hight risk environment is a probable outcome, and can affect the astronauts' self control and judgment.
\\item[Opportunity:] New researches in emotional intelligence and how to program the robots to sense physical gestures and facial expressions, perceive emotions, and interact with other human beings lead the way to a new definition of human-robot interaction that has its results in ameliorating difficult 
\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Computer Networks, Narrow AI
\\item[Grand Challenges:] Getting There
\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] Artificial General Intelligence, materials, sensors
\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] Reduced levels of stress help astronauts in their mission
\\item[Who is doing it:]
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item Scientists at UC San Diego's California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology (Calit2)-Hanson Robotics of Dallas, Texas
\\item Carnegie Mellon University's Robotics Institute, Human Computer Interaction Institute, and the Entertainment Technology Center.
\\item MIT Media Lab-Personal Robots
\\end{enumerate}
\\item[Time Scale:] 5-10 years
\\item[Convergence:] Brain, HCI, Nanotechnology, Design
\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] Being able to mimic the fine details of facial expressions, universality in emotional expression.
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) rovers}
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] Applying \\gls{AGI} in exploration rovers to be sent on future mission to planets.
\\item[Problem:] New environments present different and unexpected challenges; obstacles, atmospheric conditions, geological dangers all constitute a part of the unknown circumstances that the rover might encounter. Making the right decision is crucial to safely navigate and complete a successful mission. Current rovers have no ability to predict or estimate danger, and have no advanced decision making capabilities, thus making them vulnerable to sudden or subtle changes in their surrounding, resulting in endangering their mission and its outcomes.
\\item[Opportunity:] Advances in reverse engineering the brain and modeling how the mind works, can give us the basis of how to implement a general approach of problem solving mechanism that can be widely used in different situations. If applied and integrated in space exploration robots, it can facilitate its mission, making it more capable at gathering and analyzing information, predicting potential beneficial areas of exploration even if it was not originally planned in its mission.
\\item[Grand Challenges:] Getting There, Staying There, Robot Exploration
\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Computing, Networking, AI, Robotics
\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:] - 
\\item[Who is doing it:]
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item Numenta Project (Jeff Hawkins)
\\item OpenCog/Novamente (Ben Goertzel)
\\end{enumerate}
\\item[Time Scale:] Significant progress is being made towards a better understanding of how the mind works, better models would probably emerge in the coming few years and according to Ray Kurzweil we will achieve \\gls{AGI} between 2015 and 2045.
\\item[Convergence:] Brain, HCI, Medical Scanning Instruments, Computation
\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] The human brain complexity, information processing, different theories and studies in the scientific community
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{AI and Synthetic Biology for Space Related Human Enhancement}
\\label{enhancement}
\\begin{description}
\\item[Problem:]Space exploration, including life on other planets, requires providing human life necessities during potentially long space trips and long stays. 

\\item[Opportunity:] One approach would be to provide the necessary living conditions and needs. However, another could be to modify the required living conditions and needs by enhancing human-beings, adjusting human physiology to space conditions, 
including:
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item adjusting for micro, or no gravity
\\item resistance to radiation
\\item adjusting for a different atmospheric blend and resistance to currently poisonous materials.
\\end{enumerate}
\\item[Exponential Technologies:] AI, Biotechnology
\\item[Grand Challenges:] Staying There, Getting There
\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:]
Dramatically reducing the costs and efforts required for space exploration and colonizing while increasing survival chances.
\\item[Who is doing it:]
\\item[Time Scale:] Currently we know how to write around 1 million genes, sufficient to modify single cell organisms. As an exponential technology, we expect to be 
able to modify human DNA in 20 to 30 years.
\\item[Convergence:] Human enhancement techniques could also help generating human-like robots.
\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:]
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item There is a gap between the DNA codes we can ``write'' and the real world requirements. AI could help bridge that gap.
\\item Resistance to artificial life forms and fear of the perils it 
\\end{enumerate}
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Whole-brain simulation}
\\label{brain-sim}
\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] Whole Brain Simulation

\\item[Problem:] Lack of knowledge in brain-mind relationship

\\item[Opportunity:] As the computational power is exponentially increasing, simulation of how the human brain works will become feasible.

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Neural Technology and Computing

\\item[Grand Challenges:] Staying There. Space Exploration. Medicine in Space.

\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] Artificial General Intelligence 

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:]Cure neural and psychological diseases. Enhance human performance. Develop AI based on the understanding of brain function.

\\item[Who is doing it:]
\\hfill\\begin{enumerate}
\\item Blue Brain Project, IBM Zurich, Switzerland, attempts to reverse-engineer the mammalian brain, in order to understand brain function and dysfunction through detailed simulations.
\\item DARPA SyNAPSE, IBM Almaden Research Center, USA, investigates innovative approaches that enable revolutionary advances in neuromorphic electronic devices that are scalable to biological levels. 
\\end{enumerate}

\\item[Time Scale:] 20 years

\\item[Convergence:] Artificial intelligence will be further advanced by fully understanding the electrophysiology of human brain.

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] None of the existing invasive and noninvasive neural signal recording techniques offer sufficient spatial and temporal resolutions to study individual neuronal activity during behavior in real-time.
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{Uploading intelligence}

\\begin{description} \\item[Application:] Uploading complete or partial human brains into space robots for exploration.

\\item[Problem:] Taking humans into deep space is risky, expensive and slow.

\\item[Opportunity:] To build exploration robots that can receive an ``uploaded'' human brain for science, exploration and other missions.

\\item[Exponential Technologies:] Neurotechnology, AI, Biotechnology,
Robotics, Networking.

\\item[Grand Challenges:] Robotic Exploration, Human Exploration, Getting
There, Staying There.

\\item[Other Connected Ideas:] High-throughput exploration through swarms of
sentient spacecraft; robotic exploration;

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:]-

\\item[Who is doing it:] The preliminary groundwork is being laid by IBM's Synapse and Blue Brain projects.

\\item[Time Scale:] 30 years

\\item[Convergence:] Bits, Neuroscience and Genetics, Robotics and AI

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:] Technical---the capacity to scan brains functionally and the capacity to run them on space-rated hardware must be developed.
\\end{description}

\\subsubsection{The Ultimate Fate of Space Exploration: Self-Replicating AGI Systems}

\\begin{description}
\\item[Application:]

Exploring more and more of the far reaches of space without any human
assistance.

\\item[Problem:]

Typically today, all space missions require human intervention. This
greatly increases the cost and time involved. Additionally, all missions
must originate on Earth, which places a fundamental limit on the distance
from the Earth that can be explored in any given time. The optimal
situation would be exploration missions that do not require human
intervention, and which can replicate themselves \\emph{while in space},
so that each subsequent generation of missions can explore further
and further into deep space.

\\item[Opportunity:]

The ultimate manifestation of Artificial Intelligence is known as
Artificial General Intelligence (\\glstext{AGI}). \\glstext{AGI} systems are characterized
by being good at learning and innovating on their own, much like humans
do, and can become proficient at a wide array of tasks. This is in
stark contrast to currently available narrow AI systems, which are
only suitable for specifically engineered tasks. By combining \\glstext{AGI}
with self-repicating systems, it will be possible to create systems
which explore the far reaches of the universe without any human intervention.
These systems will replicate themselves in the far reaches of space,
without ever having to return to Earth. They will be capable of learning
new things about Space, drawing their own conclusions, and making
novel decisions, without any human intervention.

\\item[Exponential Technologies:]

Computing, Nanotechnology

\\item[Grand Challenges:]

Robotic Exploration, Staying There

\\item[Other Connected Ideas:]

This project is the logical extension of a more near-term project
that involves creating large numbers of semi-autonomous spacecraft
that are capable of exploring limited regions of space and reporting
back. By taking that project to the next logical extension, those
semi-autonomos spacecraft become fully autonomous. Finally, combining
this idea with self-replicating technology will allow the project
to grow exponentially without human intervention.

\\item[Estimate of the Potential Benefit:]

This project is likely the culmination of space exploration. Self-replicating
robotic spacecraft will be able to cover far more reaches of space
than humans would ever be able to do, due to their exponentially growing
nature. It is estimated that the maximum amount of space will be explored
using a technique such as this one.

\\item[Who is Doing It:]
\\hfill
\\begin{enumerate}
\\item Newton Howard and Marvin Minsky are leading a project at MIT called
the MIT Mind Machine Project that has potential to create an intelligent
system powerful enough for this task\\cite{mmp}.
\\item Ben Goertzel is leading a non-profit open source project called OpenCog,
as well as a commercial AGI research venture called Novamente, both
of which have the potential to create an intelligent system powerful
enough for this task\\cite{goertzel}.
\\item Professor Gregory Chirikjian is working on research about self-replicating
robotic systems at Johns Hopkins University, and has successfully
prototyped several\\cite{chirikjian}.
\\item Chirikjian has worked with Suthakorn and Zhou to explore the idea
of self-replicating machines for space exploration as well\\cite{chirikjian2}.
\\end{enumerate}

\\item[Time Scale:]

In order to embark on a mission such as this one, AGI must be available
alongside self-replicating machines. It is estimated that this will
not happen until 30+ years in the future.

\\item[Convergence:]

This project lies neatly at the intersection between Artificial Intelligence,
computing power, miniaturization, nanotechnology, and self-replication.

\\item[Significant Bottlenecks:]

It is currently unknown how any AGI system would function, or precisely
how any self-replicating machine would actually be deployed. Therefore,
an extensive amount of research and development would have to be performed
before this project could be commenced.

\\end{description}

%%%ABOVE THIS POINT IS SORTED%%%

"
http://su-etherpad.com/spacetp-openspace-application-ideas
"3D Google Maps
Take constant images of earth and only send the changes in image (for example

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-space
"

SPACE IDEAS
BRAINSTORM TIME! (Please feel free to add!!! Many of these were thrown out during our session on Sunday evening)

WHY GO TO SPACE?
1. EARTH is a closed-loop system. The quicker we can achieve success in closed-loop systems in Space, the quicker we can duplicate it on Earth.

2. LOVE & PASSION to go to the stars.

3. The EXPLORATION Instinct / Frontier mentality.

4. Backing up the biosphere.

5. More Resources & Energy

6. High-Risk Experimentation.

7. Increase Quality of Life for EVERYONE 

8. To answer the fundamental question . . . ARE WE ALONE?

WHAT CAN WE DO IN SPACE?
-IDEA: Computing in Space / A \"Space Cloud\"
******************************************************************************************
Web 4.0 - A Space Cloud - courtesy of Brad Templeton
-vacuum makes it harder to cool

-IDEA: 3rd World Space Agency
******************************************************************************************
Premise: Outsource NASA-like work to Africa and other developing countries, creating an economy and helping the space industry cut costs

-IDEA: Robots in Space
******************************************************************************************

-IDEA: Mining (Astroids, moons, etc.)
******************************************************************************************
Diameter: 1 mile
Worth in materials: $20 TRILLION
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helium-3

-IDEA: Innovation Incubator
******************************************************************************************
Applies technologies that further the space industry by starting right here on the ground

-IDEA: Education w/ Space-thinking Approach
******************************************************************************************
Teach students in school mathematics, physics, chemistry, etc. with an in-depth focus on how it REALLY applies to space and the world(s) around us

-IDEA: Launch Small Self-Assembling Sattelites
******************************************************************************************

-IDEA: Cheap Access to Space (CATS) / Space Propulsion
******************************************************************************************
Enable all the other ideas possible by building a foundation of cheap propulsion.

-Ballon-Assisted Launch System / Rockoons (\"rocket balloons\")
http://academy.grc.nasa.gov/y2008/group-project/proposal-for-a-balloon-assisted-launch-system
http://www.aiaa.org/content.cfm?pageid=406&gTable=mtgpaper&gID=2127
\"It was established some time ago that a ground launched rocket capable of reaching 20 km would be able to reach an altitude of almost 100km if it was launched from 20km.\"

-IDEA: Launching space vehicles from earth through a vacuum tunnel or an ionized tunnel of the atmosphere
******************************************************************************************

While a lot of effort is invested in getting the space vehicles better and cheaper, how about manipulating the substance through which the vehicles are launched to make their passage faster and easier? 
It might be possible to create a vacuum tunnel in the atmosphere by creating some kind of an artificial tornado, and launching in the \"eye of the storm\". if we do this from one of the poles, as Lane explained in his talk that the atmosphere there is thinner. 
An option I like even better is to ionize a strait up line to the sky all the way to space. launching then a similarly-charged space vehicle through this electrically charged tunnel would make the air \"slippery\" as it will repulse the vehicle. It will result is a possibly substantial amount of rocket fuel, which will make launching cheaper and easier.

-IDEA: Space Tourism
******************************************************************************************
People are paying to go to the space station already - a way to open up the space frontier to people may be to first give them the oppurtunity to travel there. Eventually people will become more familiar with the idea and probably more willing to colonize

-IDEA: Entertainment in Space
******************************************************************************************
IMAX, reality TV in space, etc.

Augmented Reality - through growing 3D and other sensory technologies, have the ability to feel like in space right here on the ground.

-IDEA: Space Sports!
******************************************************************************************

*Skydiving from Space
*Rocketing Racing
*Lunar Olympics
*Space Surfing

-IDEA: Medical Applications in Space
******************************************************************************************
*Longevity through living in space
*Pharmaceuticals -bacteria build faster and denser, proteins bond more directly and antibiotics grow at an \u201cenhanced\u201d level in SPACE

-IDEA: Rehabilition and Retirement in Space
******************************************************************************************
\"One-way tickets to space\" - Dan B

-IDEA: Manufacturing (Zero gravity, vacuum) 
******************************************************************************************
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_manufacturing
1. The unique environment can allow for industrial processes that cannot be readily reproduced on Earth.
2. Raw materials can be collected and processed from other bodies within the solar system at a low expense compared to the cost of lifting materials into orbit.
3. Items too large to launch on a rocket can be assembled in orbit for use in orbit.
4. Potentially hazardous processes can be performed in space with minimal risk to the environment of the Earth or other planets.

-IDEA: Space-based research
******************************************************************************************
Microgravity environment

-IDEA: DIY Space
******************************************************************************************
Great idea! Laying a foundation that enables anyone to DO-IT-YOURSELF and contribute to the growing space industry (or perhaps even have their own space ships)

-IDEA: Space Advertisements
******************************************************************************************
-Think McDonald's logo on Space Shuttle

-IDEA: Space Junk Collector & Orbiting Repair Shop (Upcycle)
******************************************************************************************
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris
-Space debris: A growing problem. Why not REUSE materials? 
-Repair old sattelites IN space and sell to companies/governments that can't afford a new one
-Mitigating space junk
microwave systems on the grownd that my team plans to use for launch purposes can be used for deflecting (changing orbits) of space junk objects through radiation pressure. There is a huge commercial potential for the next ~10 years in this arena. What we need is person to do the math behind this.microwave systems on the grownd that my team (Dmitriy) plans to use for launch purposes can be used for deflecting (changing orbits) of space junk objects. There is a huge commercial potential for the next ~10 years in this arena. What we need is person to do the math behind this.

Same as above, but heat the asteroid using microwave beamed power in order to disperse a \"rubble pile\" asteroid?

-IDEA: Astroid Defense
******************************************************************************************

-IDEA: Military Applications
******************************************************************************************
-Will continue to be one of the largest customers in the space industry

-IDEA: Anti-aging Medicine
******************************************************************************************

-IDEA: Quicker Transportation
******************************************************************************************
IMAGINE: Getting around the world in 2 hours. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockwell_X-30
In his 1986 State of the Union address, President Ronald Reagan called for \"...a new Orient Express that could, by the end of the next decade, take off from Dulles Airport, accelerate up to 25 times the speed of sound, attaining low earth orbit or flying to Tokyo within TWO hours.

-IDEA: Space Delivery
******************************************************************************************
-The FedEx of Space

-IDEA: Moon Base (and a Launch Base)
******************************************************************************************
-A long-term base on the moon
-A base with a magnetic railway that can shoot vehicles into deeper space

-IDEA: Earth Observation
******************************************************************************************
-example: mapping the Earth quicker, faster... can even be applied to archaeology: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/11/science/11maya.html

-IDEA: Communication
******************************************************************************************
-One of the largest current space market
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communications_satellite

-IDEA: Energy
******************************************************************************************
-Space-based solar power
-Helium 3
-Fussion / Fission

-IDEA: Stirling Engines
******************************************************************************************
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_engine
Take advanage of the large temperature gradients found in space. For instance, a sterling engine on the moon could see +250 deg.F in the sun light and -250 deg.F in the shadow under the unit. Energy is essentiall proportional to this temperature difference. Sterling engines have never been to practical on Earth because too much energy must be put into the system to create this temp. gradient, but in space the energy is already there, which greatly increases efficicency. (Jason)

-IDEA: New Government 
******************************************************************************************
The Venus Project (Jason)
http://www.thevenusproject.com/

-IDEA: Preserving Food 
******************************************************************************************
-Astronauts need food that can LAST. If we can fix this issue on Earth, we'll effect two markets!

-IDEA: Advancement in Materials
******************************************************************************************

-IDEA: Trash Disposal 
******************************************************************************************

-IDEA: Nuclear
******************************************************************************************

-IDEA: Radiation Shielding
******************************************************************************************

-IDEA: Radiation Fishing
******************************************************************************************
Place some large textile net that can harness solar radiation in space, then this net returns to earth bringing this energy with it. 

-IDEA: Mine/Make Water
******************************************************************************************

-IDEA: Search For LIFE!!!
******************************************************************************************
Do we have a better take than SETI? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SETI

-IDEA: Outsourcing to Space
-Manufacture anything that is too dangerous here, or is EASIER to do in space

-IDEA: Fission Power in Space
******************************************************************************************
-Dangerous on Earth (or at least politically dangerous). Why not do it in space?

-IDEA: Fusion 
******************************************************************************************

-IDEA: 3D Printing in Space
******************************************************************************************
-Send the materials, send the printer... then send the information later of what want to print.

The BIG IDEA here is to use 3D printing to take space junk and useless satellites to assembly new space crafts in space. Initially you could see a boom in satellites being built for countries who before had no means of affording a satellite mission. (Jason)

-IDEA: Zero-Gravity SEX
******************************************************************************************

-IDEA: Tele transport
******************************************************************************************

-IDEA: Sending Time Capsules to Space
******************************************************************************************
\"Your memories... breaking the time/space barrier!\"

-IDEA: Better Development Software for Space Vehicles / Machines
******************************************************************************************
-Want to develop a new vehicle or space-based sattelite? Have to go through dozens of expensive tests... and it still might fail! Why not CUT out the real-world tests as much as possible with more reliable software.

-IDEA: IC Redesign ******************************************************************************************
IC (integrated circuit) redesign for 4 K temperature and deep vacuum (I believe that in space we can run data and supercomputing centers much more efficiently and cheaply). Data centers in particular will be tricky due to latency and/or bandwidth - we want apps for this that are highly compute-limited and not network-limited. e.g. Nat'l Lab supercomputer. ~davidad
-MEMS in vacuum is radiation-hard and much better Quality factor in vacuum. Can do nonstandard things like cantilevers for signal processing
-Superconducting wires = no heat produced. Niobium etc.
-we can cool present-day IC's to overclock them but what if we could radically redesign ICs to leverage the environment of space
-software algorithms and hardware redundancy to mitigate effects of radiation
-there will be lag time but certain niches don't care
FYI: http://spacejournal.ohio.edu/issue16/lofstrom.html ~davidad

IDEA- Mining
******************************************************************************************
What is the closest asteroid? 
What/where would resources be used for? Building spaceships? Bringing back to Earth?
Maybe crash an asteroid into the moon and mine it there. This allows us to mine it with larger permanent facilities on the moon, kills the energy requirements for redirecting asteroid/material and provides the energy to open up the asteroid[?]. Also we may now be able to claim all the material right away even though we can't mine it all immediately.

IDEA- Long-Range Communication
******************************************************************************************
20min (?) each way for a signal to reach Mars/Earth - quantum entangled particles??
Erez: by dropping com satellites along the path between the colonies the signal could be picked and powered. That will enhance the quality of transmission on large distances.

IDEA- 3d printing in space
******************************************************************************************
To reduce spare parts brought to orbit. The raw material doesn't have to be dead weight either. The raw material might be able to be used as structural material on the way up, then melted to form the raw material for 3d printing when it reaches the space-base or moon/planet-base.
One of the projects from last year related to building homes in a similiar way to a 3D printer - maybe there is a way to use that technology?
Making a 3D printer that can survive launch and work in zero-g is going to be incredibly challenging. But I can't show it's impossible. :)

The BIG IDEA here is to use 3D printing to take space junk and useless satellites to assembly new space crafts in space. Initially you could see a boom in satellites being built for countries who before had no means of affording a satellite mission. (Jason)

Dmitriy:
I believe that analysis of commercial opportunities for observable future can be a great topic for our SU work. Here are some questions that we might discuss:
1. Required technologies (available or not, exponential or not, cost of R&D)
2. Start-ups for enabling technologies (can a small company play a significant role, how much funding would one need, what would be the right source of capital)
3. Robotics and automation of all operations (to what degree can we use robots vs. humans in the deployment and operations, what is more expensive)
4. In-space utilization or controlled return (what resources can be used in orbit more efficiently than back on Earth)
5. Timescale and business case (how long will it take to develop that business)
6. Social and political aspects (are there any social road-block and how can we overcome them)

IDEA #7 - Space-based solar power
********************************************************************************************
Google \"Space-based solar power\" and and you'll see how much noise has been around. Technically, it is possible but some funding issues prevented this from happening.
I am very interested in this one and would like to run some numbers with folks at some point. - davidad
This is of big interest to me, but I truly feel that we need to find a way to use these technologies in a near term earth based way. (Jason)
Talked to Jose (TP of Energy). He's very interested in helping/collaborating if we choose an energy-based route (such as Space-based solar power)

IDEA #8 Televised International Space Games
********************************************************************************************
International sports competitions in space or on the moon, televised, free to viewers, and funded with advertisers much like football.Start with smaller competitions in the space station (new bigger modules as funding grew) and later maybe games involving human flying with wings in a large chamber on the moon. The games would have a fantastic zero-g element to them that could not be reproduced anywhere else.

IDEA #10 - Satellite system
********************************************************************************************
Not sure what it would be but the technology is developed

IDEA # 11- Standartized space systems and sat. constellations interconnectivity

I strongly believe that we have to consider 2 major reasons for making a space project \u2013 first is the guiding line of affecting a billion people in the next 10 years and then how to interconnect the space project with the developing World. 
Reasons to do this: space can and is saving lives on daily basis (environmental monitoring, meteorology, communication, navigation, etc) 
How to make space accessible for the developing World and why?
Proposals: standardizing the satellites (buses and structures, power generation, basic electronics). If achieved \u2013 plug and play type of satellites that could be MASS PRODUCED will significantly lower the costs. Furthermore it will shorten build time exponentially and it should make the development of basic sat. systems accessible to the developing countries, which will not only help their technological development significantly but it will open job opportunities and it will help the improvement of the local communities (education, environmental interaction, etc.)
Another aspect: imagine constellations of satellites interconnected and sending the information in a common receiving center (ground station center). What could be the benefits of having a live connection between satellites from different constellations, meant for different purposes (navigation, environmental monitoring, communication, etc.). What if this is like an internet system between spacecrafts (satellites)? Imagine the possibilities and the information that you could have altogether from the same system? Imagine a learning system (AI maybe) that analyzes the data from all those sources through normal algorithms and calculates the probabilities of dangerous events \u2013 natural disasters, pollution, arising conflicts, etc. In time the system will learn to define different aspects of the whole information and it will find paths leading to concluding with significant certainty the probability of arising crises. It will also manage to react in case of already happening events (exp. Provide immediate monitoring and communication and navigation in remote or devastated areas and communicate with the responsible local and international organizations and services that might use the information to mitigate or prevent the loss of lives or significant material losses (instead of losing time to gather the same information from non-connected space systems, which sometimes takes months).
Opening space to the developing World might improve dramatically the chance of those countries to better the life in many local communities.
Now why not even unite those: standardized space systems, interconnected, with self-learning ability and able to analyze multiple processes that have profound effects for millions of people on the ground\u2026
Just a suggestion\u2026 

Jan Comment - Two quick thoughts that came up in my mind about how to bring the space track into the context of the developing world: 
1. when I worked for OLPC, one major problem was connectivity of laptops and central servers within schools to the internet if you were really out in the wilderness. Imagine trying to connect a community of laptops or a mobile school in a country of Peru, where people are sometimes weeks away from infrastructure. Negroponte told me once that there are redundancies in the satelite capacities for telecoms, so there seems to always be a \"second school\" of satellites orbiting for up to two years along side the ones that are in use. He told us that one could potentially shift the redundant satellites to provide connectivity to a remote place. If we wanted to think of providing any kind of communication-ased services to developing areas - could we think of a system that dynamically exploits such redundancies? Does anyone know more about this?
2. in terms of funding - maybe another way to look at space would be the huge potential closed-loop systems from space reseach could have to tackle the urbanization problems on earth. The numbers show that within the next decades, about 80% of people will live in cities, many of them will evolve in the developing world. Thus people sit down to think about how to build IT-based, more efficient smarter cities/environments from scratch.Lot's of AI, sensor networks, embedded systems, sentient infrastructures, cognitive infrastructures, and so forth needed. As Steve showed, Nasa is already doing a bit of work in terms of sentient buildings (http://www.nasa.gov/centers/ames/greenspace/sustainability-base.html ), but I think one could do a lot more. If the Space track group decides to go into the direction of how to devlop extraterrestial colonies/stations, maybe we could think more about synergies between this research and problems in the developmental scenario.

IDEA #11
Nuclear Waste Disposal in Space
Nuclear waste is still deposited at Nuclear reactor sites for medium-term diposal with no solution what to do with it in the long range. While still considered to be too risky and possibly not ethically the right thing to do, could we come up with a safe way to solve the problem within space?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Meeting start 7:15 pm

Attendance:
Aaron 
Dimitri
Mike
Matt
EK
David H
Jan
Rosa
Tony
Fabio
Santiago
Eric
Jason
Bill

IDEA #12
Can we harness the power in cosmic rays or charged particles in space.
Dimintri: 10^(-19) J
Develop tehcnology to beam energy from space

IDEA #13
Planet Repopulation kit (Noah' Ark)
Matt: Movie Titan AE

IDEA #14
Space resort
Tourism

IDEA #15 
Closed loop system integration

IDEA #16
Defense system
Remote sensing integrated with AI

IDEA #17
Safe nuclear waste disposal in space
Expensive
Difference transportation system, like vortex to get it up there

IDEA #18
Health check in space
Better toilet, check pee
can apply on earth

IDEA #19
Cheaper launching sytem
Foundamental problem getting into space for 10^9 people
COME BACK after all discussion

IDEA #20
Smart dust
Smaller sensors or machines which can be distributied in space
Nano satellites
Networking protocol
Berkeley developed hardware

IDEA #21
Sustainable system in space
Any system included energy, food, water etc. closed loop system

IDEA #22
State space solar power
Beam power on earth wirelessly
Double benefits, 25% Dimitri launch system
Micro-waves

IDEA #23
Virtual Reality emergence in space
Helmet dives into space

IDEA #24
Modular pico statellite
Like lego
Dock them together and then self-assemble
e.g. 10lg something that we can build and launch to 20 km high
requires cheap launch system

IDEA #25
Lunar building robots.
Before colonizing the moon, robots sending and building parts
Google lunar x prize 30 million dollar prize, deadline to get full prize money 2015

IDEA #26
Space rehab
Retirement home in space

IDEA #27
Space Brooms
Clean space junk
Powerful laser shoots them

IDEA #28
Orbiting repair station

IDEA #29
Micro ultra light satellites

IDEA #30
Augmented reality to experience space for 10^9 people
e.g. rocket race, make it as real as it can

IDEA #31
Consulting service for space design
Marketing sustainable tech

IDEA #32
Robonauts

IDEA #33
If we have magnetic field on earth, shuttle flies different direction and get energy

IDEA #34
Farming in space

IDEA #35
Radiation changes the course of astroids
NEED brilliant astroid

IDEA #36
Throw O2 H2O seeds to Mars before we arrive
something may grow
even nuclear waste?

IDEA #37
Space Gun
- this has been thought of and reserarched for decaded. problems identified
- possible solution is to submerge the gun in the ocean, wihch may solve a few important problems.

IDEA #38
Entertainment industry 

IDEA #39
Enabling others, education

IDEA #40
Surfers in space

IDEA #41
Standarization
How all the costs go to developing things
Why not make standarized modules, like LEGOs

IDEA #42
Marketing/education generate major market interest

IDEA #43
Rocket fuel reduction through ionizing the air
Shoot beam to ionize the air
Reduce friction, i.e. reduce fuel

IDEA #44
Astroid Mining, Processing and use it for something else
Peter: Platinum mining

IDEA #45
Satellites for development
Can we develop satellite systems that support efforts in development? 
Currently, there are several efforts to use cell-phone user data in developing countries to analyze human and nonhuman behavior. E.g. http://ai-d.org/ .
Which applications can we think of in terms of remote sensing, communication, etc. to support development? Would it be possible to support projects in other GSP 2010 TP tracks from space?

--------------------
It all relies on cheap access to space
--------------------
Figure out a way to better educate people about space
___________
Crowd source to find ways to educate people
___________
Focus is on teaching students on why space is important -- not enough focus on teaching the public on the importance of going to space. Other companies should realize the interdependence on the value of space research.
___________
Need a near term goal to focus on now -- can't center efforts on what's going to happen 10 years from now.
___________
Q: What is the reason to go to space?
A: Going to space produced a number of other valuable innovations. Stephen Hawking says if you don't go to space, life on earth will be extinct.
___________
The way it happens is you have to have the first trillionaire from space in a magazine, and then it happens like a modern gold rush.
___________
Create more female role models.
___________
Colonizing ... just like the ocean
just like Miss Universe
Larger scale

New form of entertainment, it's cool

More options, more money
Increase tech, solve problems we have now on earth

Have a big plan if something happens on earth

Energy needs

Because space has the answer, how it ends, opportunities
ultimate answers to the ultimate questions

space is a future, possbility, breaking free from earth bound
No rules, becomes frontier

Better understand outselves

DNA of the human, being program
Opportunity to solve earth's problem

Pushing the boundries of innovation
All must go in space to understand earth better

Captain Kirk's mission statement at the beginning of star trek

Exploration, earth small
trillions of dollars
exponential tech, each order of increase, accelerate risk as well
need to distribute
Fact that danger is increasing

Something bad may happen like asteriod

Resources, terraforming, soluations to problems on earth

No big goals, then boring
RAISE THE BAR

Something to believe in
Life is a possibility

Satellite

Personal reasons
What private sector can do

Columbus
People like settle, esp rich people
poor people like settle for current resource
Not about money

MAJOR PTS:
Passion/Exploration
Survival Tech/expansion
Resources
Raise the bar
Competition

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What is the \"killer app\" for space in the near- to mid-term?

Question: Who has rights to colonize the moon? Can anyone go there and start building?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_Treaty (not actually ratified by any space-faring nation!)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Space_Treaty (ratified by almost all nations, and is effectual)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_real_estate (general overview of the idea)

"
http://su-etherpad.com/openspace-applications
"

Iridium 2.0

Supporting Open

"
http://su-etherpad.com/space-grand-challenges
"%NOTE: don't worry about extra spaces which may appear in copy+pasting to and from
%Etherpad. Remove them if they bother you, but otherwise TeX will remove them for you
%when the document is compiled to PDF.

\\subsubsection{Getting There}
%(to be written by Dmitriy)

The key problem driving the cost of space access today is fundamental inefficiency of chemical rockets. In the year 2010 payloads are delivered into orbit the same way they were launched in 1960\u2019s: by exploding large amounts of chemicals in a semi-controlled way. Conventional multistage rockets are limited to payload fractions of less than 4%. Using rocket equation it is easy to see that this inefficiency is caused partly by the structural limits of existing materials, and partly by the limited specific impulse (Isp) of chemical propellants, which have reached a practical limit of 450 seconds. 

Inefficiency of chemical propulsion results in unreasonable complexity of present day launch vehicles, which operate on the very limits of structural margins. This requires a large number of people to work on the maintenance, operation and pre-flight checks. It also prevents reusability of rockets, leading to unacceptably high risks associated with launch and extremely high costs of payload insurance. Launch of a chemical rocket is a violent process and a structure operating near its design tolerance is more susceptible to fatigue and failure. The Space Shuttle as a reusable vehicle requires extensive refurbishment and safety checks between launches, to the extent that the launcher is disassembled, inspected, refurbished and rebuilt before every launch. For example, a hydrogen tank used for the on-board fuel cell is manufactured to burst at 1.5 times its usual operating pressure in order to save mass, but this safety factor of 1.5 means the tank may last only 100 cycles. Such a failure-prone component must have a more regular inspection regime, so operational costs go up. In contrast, the fuselage of a pressurized civil aircraft has a safety factor of two, and for that relatively little extra mass will last tens of thousands of pressurization cycles. 

High cost of space launch arises not only from technical challenges but also from the absence of economic incentives and the lack of well defined market. Although, we would argue, that economical challenges will be eliminated as soon as the technical challenges of building cheap and reliable launch vehicles are resolved. On the economic side, various market models predict an essentially flat elasticity of demand for space access until the cost of launch is reduced below $1000 per kilogram [1]. This implies that the primary economic benefits of space cannot be realized without an order of magnitude reduction in launch costs and hence, without a paradigm shift in the means of space launch systems. 

Additional problem that is deeply rooted in the inefficiency of chemical rockets and the absence of mature space exploration market is lack of mass produced cheap components for space launch systems. All critical components are custom produced and tested by large teams over long periods of time. This leads into yet another problem: the time lags between the payload production and launch are unacceptably long and can hardly fit into business models of small- and medium-sized businesses which demand expediency as they are driven by the demand of rapid growth. Moreover, the current way of space transportation often requires high level of integration between the launch vehicle and the payload, which means that the customer is forced to choose the supplier long in advance and coordinate the development of payload with the launch provider. 

References:
1. FAA Commercial space transportation study (1997): 
http://www.hq.nasa.gov/webaccess/CommSpaceTrans/
2. A very importan plot showing the cost of space access over the last 5 decades:
https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0B3WJsdeTIdYYOTE5NWU3MGYtYzZkZi00ZTcwLWFhZGEtN2JhNmJmMGU3OTQ0&hl=en

\\subsubsection{Staying There}
%(to be written by Eric)

The conditions we have to create in space for human life to thrive are to some extent the same humans need to create in order to stay on Earth. As we need to create conditions on Earth which are conducive to life, so have we in space. However, between the two environments there are some fundamental differences. In space the key challenges derive from: lack of breathable air/atmosphere; lack of all other life support systems, services, and goods-materials provided on Earth by Nature, as well as extreme temperatures; radiation; absence of or reduced gravity; different light-dark patterns; reduced number of people, at least in the early stages of space colonization, isolation, and reduced availability of physical space.

A space system inhabitable by humans, at least given present technologies, should be designed in order to become, at a certain point, closed for matter and open for energy. All the living parts and beings would be interconnected and interdependent, as well as diverse and symbiotic.

Staying in a space environment, either grounded or ungrounded, requires the respect of four fundamental principles: 

1) in the space environment populated by humans, the air, soil and water should not be subject to increasing concentrations of substances which, if on Earth, would accumulate if extracted form the earth\u2019s crust. That means the concentrations of gases, metals, chemical elements and so on should not be growing in concentration with respect to a baseline which is comparable to the one we could find on average on the Earth\u2019s environment. The reason is that the human body in the past 3 millions years has evolved within well defined range of such substances\u2019 concentrations, and a variation could contribute to damaging human health (example: fossil fuels, heavy metals, asbestos).
2) Similarly, people in the space environment should not be subject to increasing concentrations of substances produced by human activity, such as molecules or chemical substances which if not removed would accumulate in air, soil, water, or other materials (for example CO2, CH4, other chemical substances).
3) In a thriving space environment the fundamental life support systems should be recreated and operated in a reliable way, indefinitely in time. Through photosynthesis, or other processes achieving a similar result, the space life-support systems should be able to regenerate order and structure for human use, starting form higher levels of disorder, using external energy sources.
4) In space settlements people should not subject to conditions that systematically compromise their capacity to satisfy their fundamental human needs. Human needs can be classified in nine categories, in four domanis - 
Being (qualities), Having (things), Doing (actions), Interacting (settings) - and all nine should be satisfied for a healthy and thriving life:

FUNDAMENTAL HUMAN NEEDS 
subsistence 
physical and mental health
food, shelter, work
feed, clothe, rest, work
living environment, social setting 
protection
care, adaptability, autonomy
social security, health systems, work
co-operate, plan, take care of, hel
social environment, dwelling
affection
respect, sense of humour, generosity, sensuality
friendships, family, relationships with nature
share, take care of, make love, express emotions
privacy, intimate spaces of togetherness
understanding
critical capacity, curiosity, intuition
literature, teachers, policies, educational
analyse, study, meditate, investigate,
schools, families, universities, communities,
participation
receptiveness, dedication, sense of humour
responsibilities, duties, work, rights
cooperate, dissent, express opinions
associations, parties, churches, neighborhoods
leisure 
imagination, tranquillity, spontaneity 
games, parties, peace of mind
day-dream, remember, relax, have fun
landscapes, intimate spaces, places to be alone
creation
imagination, boldness, inventiveness, curiosity
abilities, skills, work, techniques
invent, build, design, work, compose, interpret
spaces for expression, workshops, audiences
identity
sense of belonging, self-esteem, consistency
language, religions, work, customs, values, norms
get to know oneself, grow, commit oneself
places one belongs to, everyday settings
freedom
autonomy, passion, self-esteem, open-mindedness 
equal rights
dissent, choose, run risks, develop awareness
anywhere

If humans in space should be deprived of the capacity to satisfy any of the needs above, in a sufficiently abrupt manner or for a sufficiently long time duration, they would face a mental and/or physical poverty at first, and eventually, if the deprivation persists, they could be led to death. Any relational or governance system established in a space environment, especially with the goal of \u2018staying there\u2019, should consider all the fundamental human needs above. It should be noticed that while the satisfiers of the needs change indefinitely across cultures, or time, the needs remain constant in time. For this reason, a space environment and space activities should be designed to maximize the satisfaction of the human needs without violating the previous three principles. This result can often be conveniently achieved through dematerialization, which becomes more and more effective with the advancement of exponential technologies such as augmented virtual reality. The fundamental design principles for human interaction in space could be the \u2018Gold Rule\u2019: don\u2019t do unto others what you would not like others to do unto yourself. To verify if such rule is respected, and therefore if our actions in the space colony violate the other\u2019s capacity to satisfy their fundamental human needs, one could ask: \u201cWould I like to be subject to such conditions I am creating?\u201d

Once the design principles above have been considered, the challenge remains about how to implement them in the extreme space environment. Life in space would most likely, at least in the early decades from colonization, be hard and unable to replicate the \u2018luxuries\u2019 of life on Earth. The fundamental challenges to be faced to indefinitely live in space can be summarized as follows.

REFERENCES:
Fundamental Human Needs: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundamental_human_needs
Design principles: http://www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/Strategic_SD_0.pdf

Colonization of the Moon, Mars, and Other Planets

http://settlement.arc.nasa.gov/

http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/mars/mars_colonize_terraform.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonization_of_the_Moon

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonization_of_Mars

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_colonization

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/23/AR2005092301691.html

http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/hqlibrary/pathfinders/colony.htm

\\subsubsection{Human Exploration}
%(to be written by Sarah Jane)

%emailed
\\input{sj}

\\subsubsection{Robotic Exploration}
%(to be written by Jan)

The Problem
By default, much of space exploration today is highly dependent on robotic systems as well as on support by means of artificial intelligence. From the early days of space exploration on, humans sent robotic devices and satellites into space to sense, image and explore the space frontier. However, much of the robotic exploration systems provide only crude degrees of \u201cintelligence\u201d. More often than not, systems in space lag 15 years and more behind technology available on earth, which is mostly due to safety requirements as well as extensive research and development cycles within the space industry. 
Another phenomenon which goes along with this is a fundamental dispute over human vs. robotic space exploration of space. The underlying logic states that robots will facilitate the groundwork of exploration for humans to follow. At this stage, the human dream to explore and possibly colonize space is normally dominated by the premise to move our life support systems into space and onto other planets.
However, non-augmented human bodies need an earthlike environment almost to exact earth specifications. Earthlike atmospheres, which are changed by the very metabolism of the body being in it, water and hundreds of other needs from complex nutrients, molecules, to exercise, social and spatial requirements. Ironically, the body that gives us the primary medium for experiencing our surroundings is also the single largest barrier to traveling and experiencing space. 
A long-term plan to visit space in human bodies is basically committing to the idea of bottling up earth and exploring space inside of an \"earth -bottle\", which entirely separates us from the extraordinary experiences the interplanetary universe offers us. 
We argue that a new conceptual model to evolve space exploration should be based on the development of a new kind of humanoid robotics, super-human artificial intelligence as well as virtual representation of space exploration. In addition, the development of an inter/intrastellar smart network to connect all information-based agents, robots, vehicles, nodes and life-support systems is suggested to provide a collective intelligence approach within space.

Evolution of AI/robotics:
Today, AI and robotics on earth have evolved significantly within the last decades. Robotics focuses on the necessary physical capabilities, while AI focuses on the necessary mental capabilities, e.g. perception, cognition and actuation. Due to miniaturization of sensors, actuators and servos, as well as due to increasing computing power and advancement of algorithmic methods, smart robots have become increasingly smaller, lighter and more sophisticated. In addition, earth-bound robotics increasingly enable mass-production of robotic systems. Further, artificial intelligence systems today solve more and more complex problems such as searching the Internet, routing FedEx packages, and provide intelligent communication infrastructures. This phenomenon is represented by the term \"narrow AI\": each AI system today is typically helpless outside the situation it was designed for. In the broadest sense, the fields of AI and robotics strive to make non-human systems able to perform human tasks.
However, it has been predicted that in the future, we will develop what is known as \"strong AI\": an AI system that nears human levels of tolerating uncertainty, and that can generate original solutions to problems hitherto unseen and unanticipated by the designers of the AI.

This is of particular importance for space exploration. Humanoid robots -robots with human-like bodies such as Asimo or Robonaut- will quickly increase in their sensory capacity, eventually exceeding perception capabilities of the human body. In limited ways we already see today how robots equipped with night vision capability, thermal imaging capability, radar, seismographs, EMI receivers, and so forth augment human sensing. However, we suggest that such humanoid robots are only the very beginning of this \"body\" evolution. As described later, exponential advances in neuroscience, nanotechnology and synthetic biology will allow for a super-human kind of robots, with many human-like characteristics. However, such robots can be augmented with sensing and actuation capabilities beyond human limitations and can be specifically customized for conditions in space. In addition, the development of a specific \u201csuper-human intelligence\u201d for such robots provides significantly higher information processing, problem solving capabilities, as well as communication characteristics with other intelligences such as robots, networks, satellites and humans by means of a space-wide operating system (e.g. ETIR idea \u201cIntelligent Space Operating System\u201d). Human intellect can then be uploaded remotely, augmented by means of enhanced perception/sensing, and experienced individually as well as collectively. Super Human Intelligent robots for space exploration provide the benefit to be resistant to adverse conditions within space such as extreme temperatures, radiation and toxins. By default, they don't require oxygen, food, sleep, sunlight and can be designed to be of higher emotional/psychological robustness compared to humans. Psychological, social and bodily characteristics can be dynamically shaped to be optimal for individual space missions and can be adapted over time. 
This new kind of robotic super-human space exploration is meant to open up channels of exploration and experience with a currently unimaginable level of perceptive richness and extended realism by means of augmented sensing. 
In addition, new kinds of virtual environments, brain-machine interfaces and multimodal feedback systems will allow us to navigate such experience at in virtual fashion at increasingly higher resolution and vividness. This experience can then increasingly be shared by everyone on earth rather than by only a few astronauts. 
We believe the future of mankind in space can, and will be more interesting, exciting, and inspiring than the current vision of exploration with a human earth-bound body - both can and should happen in a parallel initially. We believe we can explore the planets not just from the confines of a space suit or tin can on the surface, but from a spectrum of physical embodiments, beginning decades ago with space robots that sent back images for us to experience. 
On earth, we will then exactly know what it feels like to stick a foot in the sand of Mars, to go for a space-walk, or to observe our planet as a swarm of satellites.

1. Ellery a. Humans versus robots for space exploration and development. Space Policy. 2003;19(2):87-91. Available at: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0265964603000146.

2. Crawford I. The scientific case for human space exploration. Space Policy. 2001;17(3):155-159. Available at: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0265964601000200.

3. Fisackerly R, Reimers C, Pradier A. Exploration system technology aspects in the exploration programme of the European Space Agency. Acta Astronautica. 2006;59(1-5):3-12. Available at: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0094576506001196.

4. Peter N, Stoffl K. Global space exploration 2025: Europe's perspectives for partnerships. Space Policy. 2009;25(1):29-36. Available at: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0265964608001033.

5. 1. Messina P, Vennemann D. The European space exploration programme: Current status of ESA's plans for Moon and Mars exploration. Acta Astronautica. 2005;57(2-8):156-160. Available at: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0094576505001116.

6. Horneck G, Coradini A, Haerendel G, et al. Towards a European vision for space exploration: Recommendations of the Space Advisory Group of the European Commission. Space Policy. 2010;26(2):109-112. Available at: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0265964610000238.

5. 

\\subsubsection{Space Resources}
%(to be written by Mike)

%emailed as .tex file
\\input{mike1}

\\paragraph{Space Based Solar Power}
%(written by Jason) NOTE- I will email Carlos and Davidad the reference material.

An underlying motive for all of human expansion has been the quest for energy. To early humans this meant the search for food, as food was the only form of energy they could take advantage of. Later on, our species created ways to harness other forms of energy through mechanical means---water power, wind power, coal, oil, uranium. These steady developments led to the expansion of the human race across the oceans to settle on nearly every habitual space on Earth.

Today, with a global power consumption of 12TW (Seboldt 2004), we are reaching the end of the energy supplies we have come to use so commonly. It is expected that by the year 2020, the global power consumption will be nearly 20TW. It is becoming more expensive and more risky to search for fossil fuels to power our cities, and the combustion of these fuels is becoming highly damaging to the environment. Over 85% of the power used today comes from fossil fuels (Seboldt 2004). It is generally accepted that the time has come to focus on powering our world from completely renewable resources, and there are many resources that can be harnessed; tidal currents, wind, geothermal, and of course solar. Solar power is unquestionably the ultimate solution to our energy demands. In fact we have always relied on solar energy, we are just prefer to use it in it's stored form of a battery called fossil fuels.

When we begin to explore the possibility of harvesting energy in space, rather than terrestrially, we will create a world of energy beyond what we can imagine today. The amount of energy in space is far greater than that needed to sustain the population of the planet for decades to come. For instance, the kinetic energy in the solar wind is $10^14$ MW, or over a million times the current global power consumption. Collecting solar energy and transporting it to Earth will not only solve the energy problem, taking everyone out of the \"dark age,\" but will also open the space frontier economically. As soon as the break-even point is passed, a viable business case for space energy production will swiftly drive down the costs of launch, as more and more capital comes in from the energy sector.

References:
(NSSO 2007) Space Based Solar Power as and Opportunity for Strategic Security, 2007
(Chaudhary 2010) Chaudhary, K., Vishvakarma, B.R. Feasibility study of LEO, GEO and Molniya orbit based satellite solar power station for some identified sites in India. J. Adv. Space Res. (2010)
(Seboldt 2004) Space- and Earth-based solar power for the growing energy needs of future generations

\\subsubsection{Space Science}
%(to be written by Diva)

\\subsubsection{Space Education/Evangelism}
%(written by Jason, edited by davidad)

A key underlying problem to the limit of humanity's progress in space is that the majority of the human species is uninterested in space. Activities in space today do not inspire the awe that they once did: instead of watching astronauts walk upon the surface of a celestial body for the first time, today, if we're lucky, we get to watch them repair the toilet on the International Space Station. Educational outreach is a good start, but we need to connect humanity to space in a more natural way. Global warming is now perceived as a threat so compelling that most people believe we need to do something about it. But this threat is dwarfed by that of remaining on this planet indefinitely.

NASA's education program attempts to make space and the STEM (Science Technology Engineering and Math) curriculum exciting for students, but they do it without an understanding of the progress exponential technologies will have on the space industry. Students today rarely realize that when they grow older they will have a completely different tool set with which to tackle space. We should teach them what the world will be like in a decade or two and excite them on the possibilities they can create.

In all instances of educating the public on the importance of space, from youth to the elderly, opening the space frontier is never presented as an explicit need---which it is. Space is often considered to be primarily beneficial as an engine for creating technological spin-offs, but even if space exploration paid no technological dividends, it would still be crucially important. People don't appreciate the voyage of Christopher Columbus to the Americas primarily because of the new sextant developed for the journey that was eventually spun off to the private sector and used in merchant shipping.

It is human nature that we need to \"see it to believe it,\" and maybe this is what is holding back humanity from understanding why space exploration is a necessity for survival. Until ordinary people can experience space through their own eyes, the possibilities that it holds will not be fully understood. What will happen when the first child can see our home from space, or when the first ballet dancer experiences weightlessness, or when a paraplegic is given mobility again? Let's not just tell humanity about space, let's give them access to space.

\\subsubsection{Insuring Humanity}
%(to be written by davidad)

"
http://su-etherpad.com/SU-Intro
"# Singularity University
# Prototype intro
# July 24, 2010
# John Graves
Welcome to Singularity University. 
This collection of material comes from the Graduate Studies Program of 2010.
What part of the collection interests you?
Introduction to Singularity University ;; OK. Let's start with some history.
The Lectures ;; Great. You have quite a few to choose from. Let's take a look.
The Team Projects ;; G S P 10 has five projects. Here they are.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/forum
"This is a general discussion forum for GSP10.

Suggestions for use:
1. Add your topic to the table of contents. Get a topic number (for ease of searching).
2. Add your topic and content at the end of the pad.
3. If your discussion gets too big, cut and paste it into a new pad and create a link.

===========================================================
BEGIN OF TABLE OF CONTENTS

01: Business cards
02: T-Shirt
03: Education Meeting
04: Borrow Requests
05: San Fran Trips
06: Tennis
07: Yoga
08: FDA device approval meeting
09: Insulin: Body Weight and Energy Production
10: Really useful links
11: Soccer
12: where to hold conversations
13: Music (on SUN)
14: Philosophy
15: AI
16: Computer History Museum trip
17: Cool things to work on in spare time
18: Open Science Summit
19: Carnegie Mellon/SV Talks on Computing Systems (TOCS)

END OF TABLE OF CONTENTS
===========================================================

Topic01: Business cards:
we can throw our desired business cards at http://su-etherpad.com/business-cards

===========================================================

Topic02: T-shirt:
I think this was successfully decided at the end of the Food for Cities session. Thanks, everybody!

T-Shirt Lighting
I will be holding a DIY on sewable LEDs on Thursday Night, June 24th, from 6:45 to 7:00 p.m. If time runs over, you can sew while you are having a fireside chat with Peter. 

We will make a simple LED circuit with conductive thread and home-made battery holders together. Sadly, we only have 11 sewable LEDs! I was told that if people are interested in putting the LEDs on their SU t-shirts after the DIY, then the lab will purchase more for that purpose. So, speak up! Email me at alison.lewis@singularityu.org with any questions

===========================================================

Topic03: Education mtg agenda:
http://su-etherpad.com/BMzPJ1dTtZ

===========================================================

Topic04: Borrow requests:
\"Please email me if you have ____\"
If you're going shopping, let me know - I'd love some fruit - sam.thorp@gmail.com.

===========================================================

Topic05: I am going to plan a trip to San Francisco via CalTrain one weekend in the near future - probably on a Sunday when we have the day free. Please let me know if you want to come and I'll send you the details (Emma)
Sounds fun - alison.lewis@singularityu.org
Count me in! - Santiago@bilinkis.com
I am in ! - alaeddine.mokri@singularityu.org
Claudia wants to go! claudia.olsson@gmail.com
I would like to go this weekend (Saturday or Sunday) and am hoping to buy a new iPhone at the Apple Store -- maggiejack531@gmail.com
I was thinking this Sunday so maybe we can arrange a time to all catch the CalTrain and head into town. Any suggestions of what people might like to do? Suggestions have been, Ghiradelli, Seafood and Pier 39, Boat Trip, Sports Games, Golden Gate Park, Gallery of Modern Art. On a seperate note, I'd also like to organise a seperate night out there as there a few bars I'd like to visit (like Bourbon and Branch) - Emma
I'm in - sam.thorp@gmail.com
Anyone object to inviting non-SU (but SU-aligned) friends in the Bay Area? -davidad
The more the merrier!
I'm interested - tony.lyu@singularityu.org

Who is organizing the star party? What's a star party?

===========================================================

Topic06: GSP10 Tennis
GSP10 Tennis ladder link: http://bit.ly/blqFr7
Matt and John are happy to load racquets if you don't have them.
NASA has a tennis club, with a clubhouse equipped with a ball machine and lots more racquets.

I'm interested in the ball machine. Never used one. With whom should we talk to use it?
Yeah! Let's go hack the ball machine!
It was suggested that we visit the Military Housing Office.

===========================================================

Topic07: GSP10 YOGA!!
When does everybody want to have the first yoga session? 

How about after this before we eat lunch?

===========================================================

Topic08: FDA device approval meeting
Derek Jacoby writes:

Tonight (24 June) there is a mountain view DIYbio group meetup focusing on the
FDA device and drug approval process.

It runs from 6-8pm, but I intend to come back at 7:30 so that I don't
miss Peter's talk.

There's a $10 suggested donation. If anyone wants to come along please
let me know! I have room for 3 others in the car.

--Derek

===========================================================

Topic09: Insulin: Body Weight and Energy Production
Sasha Grujicic writes:
Hey there,

So there was an interesting chat / rant this morning on diet and energy metabolism and I mentioned that there was an interesting video with doctor Scott Connelly that I have which is a real eye opener (at least for me). It covers a ton of stuff including the relationships among glucose, insulin, ATP, protein, body weight and health.

On a suggestion by Justin I wanted to open it up to others who may be interested in watching it on a screen or projector. 

If you are interested drop me an email and I'll setup a time to watch it.

Cheers,
Sasha

HEY THERE . . .There seems to be a bunch of interest so I am going to schedule something for tomorrow at lunch. I will try and schedule it in the B3 facility at lunch or in the Mallow tomorrow evening.

===========================================================

Topic10: Really useful links

Links to Etherpad sessions for the program:
http://singularityu.org/gsp10pads/

GSP10 Calendar: http://bit.ly/GSP10cal
GSP10 Best of the Wire / Word of the Day: http://bit.ly/GSP10wotd

GSP10 Social Network Coordinates spreadsheet: http://bit.ly/GSP10SocialNetwork

Link to Google Waves (for your SU account):
https://wave.google.com/a/singularityu.org/

IT Help
https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/help/home

===========================================================

Topic11: Soccer

Soccer Group List:
1- Gary Gautier
2- Dhaval Chadha
3- Candice Berezan
4- Jim Hurd
5- Tony Lyu
6-Matt Kern (only played once though...)
7-Juan Martinez-Barea
8-Marie-Clare Treseder
9- Everson Lopes
10-Miguel Luengo-Oroz
11-Emiliano Kargieman
12- Mercy Njima
13- Nolene Ferrari
14- Carlos Azevedo-

NEWS: I've talked to Salim, and from now on we will be able to see the World Cup Games on the big screen, here at the B3 ballroom!! ---- FANTASTIC!!

On SUN: http://singularityu.org/network/pg/groups/forum/7396

===========================================================

Topic12: where to hold conversations

Pulling off gsp10students because of the absurdity of having a
conversation in email about not having conversations on email...

But I'm really disappointed to see these discussions move somewhere
else. Device accessibility is one very important point. In addition,
though, discussions in other places are not archived. In a month when
I vaguely remember a conversation I'll search my gmail if I need to
recall who made a point. If it's elsewhere I simply won't find it.
There's also notification. We now have 5 different places to hold
discussions - the TP wiki, the SUN network, etherpad, email, and now
wave. Yuck! I won't go check all those regularly. I may intend to, but
if it doesn't land in my inbox, in general, it doesn't exist.

Finally, and this is by no means a small point. We have saturated the
local wireless network. I still see things come into my email inbox
because it's just text. It's taking me sometimes a minute or two
before other websites come up fully, wave is particularly bad, and
etherpad keeps disconnecting on me.

Doesn't everyone now have a threaded email client? If so, then other
than seeing a bolded title indicating that new responses are within
then what's the downside of discussions being in email?

Suggestion: This is something that worked well in a similar situation. We ask the staff to start a new mailing list, something like gsp10studentssocial@singularityu.org. This is for all the 'unimportant' stuff - who's going to the shops, the problems of vegetarianism, etc. Then gsp10students is reserved for more useful stuff. 
-- yup, I like this suggestion, except instead of asking staff to create the list, a google group would allow us to create it ourselves and would also allow those who choose to view it on the web rather than subscribing in email. The email address would then be something like gsp10discussion@googlegroups.com

I kind of agree, but then you have people opting in rather than opting out. If you get staff to create the group, everyone is automatically a member and can then filter their email accordingly. It's just nice to know that most people are being reached - though I suppose you could just invite everyone to the google group.

or even just directly add them. I don't know if we have a full list of the singularityu.org addresses of all students, but I'm sure somebody does...

Ha! Nevermind, the staff don't have to create it. I'm on it. I like your gsp10discussion name

---------------------

That having been said, a discipline of not replying to the entire list when you're just saying \"me too\" would be a great thing...
--------------

John G: Except it is nice for everyone to be able to see who else is interested ...

===========================================================

Topic 13: Music
See http://singularityu.org/network/mod/groups/topicposts.php?topic=6895&group_guid=6634
Alternatively, http://su-etherpad.com/music

===========================================================

Topic 14: Philosophy
See http://su-etherpad.com/philosophy

Philosophers Anonymous, Mondays 9pm-10pm

===========================================================

Topic 15: AI group
See http://su-etherpad.com/ai

===========================================================

Topic 16: Computer History Museum trip
See http://su-etherpad.com/chm

===========================================================

Topic 17: Cool things to work on in spare time

Suggestions:

1- Build a cheap, small solar panel
2- Build a rocket
3- Build a robot rover that roves inside Hangar One (and takes pictures of the space aliens stored there)

===========================================================

Topic 18: Open Science Summit

Derek Jacoby to GSP10_Students
26 June 7:46 PM 

I'm not sure how much of this I'll be able to attend because of our
class schedules here, but it looks like a really interesting event at
the end of July. http://opensciencesummit.com/schedule/

All of the proceeds go to benefit the Biocurious DIYbio hackerspace
that I've dragged a few of you along to already. They just started a
kickstarter to open a new lab space, have a look if you're interested.
http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1040581998/biocurious-a-hackerspace-for-biotech-the-community

Let me know if you're interested in the open science summit and we can
rideshare, I'll be driving up to Berkeley for it.

Thx,

--Derek

===========================================================

Topic 19: Carnegie Mellon/SV Talks on Computing Systems (TOCS)

http://www.cmu.edu/silicon-valley/news-events/seminars/index.html
Talks on Computing Systems (TOCS)
Each week, the Silicon Valley campus will present a different speaker who will give a talk on relevant computing and technology topics to students, faculty and staff.
TOCS occur on Tuesdays, 1:30 pm PDT at Carnegie Mellon Silicon Valley campus in room 212. Talks will be broadcast and recorded via AdobeConnect. Remote attendance is available via http://cmusv.acrobat.com/tocs. Recordings are available in the talk archive.

06-29-10 Ole Mengshoel Senior Systems Scientist, Carnegie Mellon Silicon Valley
Recent Advances in Modeling and Computation Using Bayesian Networks 

07-06-10 Elizabeth Churchill Principal Research Scientist and manager of the Internet Experiences group at Yahoo! Research
Designing the Everyday Internet

07-27-10 Alex Faaborg Principal Designer at Mozilla
Designing Firefox 

"
http://su-etherpad.com/space-evangelism
"Space Education / Evangelism Problem Space

A key underlying problem to the limit of humanity's progress in space is that the majority of the human species is uninterested in space. Activities in space today do not inspire the awe that they once did: instead of watching astronauts walk upon the surface of a celestial body for the first time, today, if we're lucky, we get to watch them repair the toilet on the International Space Station. Educational outreach is a good start, but we need to connect humanity to space in a more natural way. Global warming is now perceived as a threat so compelling that most people believe we need to do something about it. But this threat is dwarfed by that of remaining on this planet indefinitely.

NASA's education program attempts to make space and the STEM (Science Technology Engineering and Math) curriculum exciting for students, but they do it without an understanding of the progress exponential technologies will have on the space industry. Students today rarely realize that when they grow older they will have a completely different tool set with which to tackle space. We should teach them what the world will be like in a decade or two and excite them on the possibilities they can create.

In all instances of educating the public on the importance of space, from youth to the elderly, opening the space frontier is never presented as an explicit need---which it is. Space is often considered to be primarily beneficial as an engine for creating technological spin-offs, but even if space exploration paid no technological dividends, it would still be crucially important. People don't appreciate the voyage of Christopher Columbus to the Americas primarily because of the new sextant developed for the journey that was eventually spun off to the private sector and used in merchant shipping.

It is human nature that we need to \"see it to believe it,\" and maybe this is what is holding back humanity from understanding why space exploration is a necessity for survival. Until ordinary people can experience space through their own eyes, the possibilities that it holds will not be fully understood. What will happen when the first child can see our home from space, or when the first ballet dancer experiences weightlessness, or when a paraplegic is given mobility again? Let's not just tell humanity about space, let's give them access to space.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Jul-27-Team-Meeting
"Connor:
Bioplastics: 
multiple organisms that create PHB. 
mostly consider growing in bioreactors
alternatives -> probiotics (internal to the body)
include microorganisms in animal feed
ecoli produces PHB
maximize methane, minimize nitrogen
do experiment to see if PHB can be generated in our poop
long-term, cow would be generting plastic

Biotechnology to create biodegradeable materials ->
From Frank Feher at goodyear who started a Biotechnology project to create isoprene molecules from a biotech process and then create Polyisoprene from this monomer

http://www.linkedin.com/in/fjfeher 

You also might want to track down the CTO or VP for R&D at Natureworks LLC (see:http://www.natureworksllc.com/). 

If you need something else, please let me know. 
One guy you should talk to about \"green\" plastics, etc is Oliver Peoples. He's very smart. Although not a traditional plastics guy, he almost certainly has learned a great deal and is likely to be able to provide a good overview of the issues and needs. 

Oliver Peoples @ Metabolix
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/oliver-peoples/17/265/884

Tony:
Waste Broker:
one central place for people to see who is producing what
private information
software 
Brad: with website and waste broker, you could use AI to judge inputs and outputs

Chiara G:
Biowaste for energy and compost http://www.superiorservicerecycling.com/
Brad: 62% of waste
Lauren: phosphorous is valueble, what if you could recollect this from compost?
Using Plastic for other uses: clothing, boats...

Downstream algae blooms from waste-water treatment plants that don't separate out phosphorous
Figuring out a good way to capture phosphorous could be huge

Matt: Plastiki, boat made from plastic bottles, \"reuse\", sailed to sydney from SF http://www.theplastiki.com/

Zain: terracycle, turning waste into a nubmer of other products, \"reuse\"

Andrew: instead of collecting a million different things from post-consumer waste, collecting a lot of one thing from one company or group.
Alison: putting biotech near manufacturing
Andrew: changing what you put into the manufacturing
so you could do 2 things: collect stuff after use or use other stuff

Brad: make composting easier. add waste option for compost. ways to accelerate compost, heat + rotating. ways to extract other things besides soil. combination of composting methods fermi composting with worms, bokashi composting for meats. use with waste treatement plants. create tumbler devices with modular attachments that can be self sustained devices for developing countries and municpalities alike

Chiara T: Biochar
pyrolisis of biomass in general vs composting
efficient, self-sufficient, exothermic transformation
use as a sink of carbon
can be used as a slow-release fertilizer
50% energy...
http://biochar.ca/
Kidist: if you make this, it could be marketable in the developing world as a replacement for kerosine
Chiara: there is already an example of this (lucia stove)
Brad: adding biochar to compost -> supersoil!
(benefits and consequences of using BioChar http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/03/biochar-is-no-climate-change-miracle-cure-george-monbiot-says.php) 

JC: fuel from chicken feathers
Links for chicken feathers: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/et-cetera/Indian-American-professor-turns-chicken-feathers-into-fuel/articleshow/5670477.cms
http://portal.acs.org/portal/acs/corg/content?_nfpb=true&_pageLabel=PP_ARTICLEMAIN&node_id=222&content_id=CNBP_022276&use_sec=true&sec_url_var=region1&__uuid=
Connor: group in Idaho to think about what to do with all these chicken feathers... recently, discovered putting them in vacuum and heating = nicely formed nanotubes
http://www.greenoptimistic.com/2009/06/25/carbonized-chicken-feathers-hydrogen-storage/

Lauren: byproducts from industry you never thought would be useful. cocunut husks used for sequestering gold. what else can we do with piles of stuff that wouldn't be used??

Steve: corn cobs useful for tires - greater snow traction! what else can corn be used for? 
Connor: pipes!

Luca: recovery of rare materials from waste. phosphorous from water 

Alison: materials from biological processe

Matt: A student dicovered a microb that eats plastic 
http://www.mnn.com/green-tech/research-innovations/blogs/boy-discovers-microbe-that-eats-plastic

Dow and Crystalsev to make bioplastic in Brazil
http://cleantech.com/news/1496/dow-crystalsev-bioplastic-brazil

Brad: http://novomer.com/ converting CO2/CO into plastics no need for petrochemicals anymore

Vincent: tire disposal use for roads but there isn't a full system for recycling...
Chiara G: use for insultation

Zain: 
Mitchell Joachim building houses from meat or plants - totally organic
http://www.ted.com/talks/mitchell_joachim_don_t_build_your_home_grow_it.html
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2010-07/12/meat-house

Brad: playground that captures electricity

Piezo electric floors http://www.inhabitat.com/2008/12/11/tokyo-subway-stations-get-piezoelectric-floors/

Recycling old tires to make shoes that are provided to people globally

Connor: Steve, what are the wastes coming out of Goodyear?
Steve: we have rubber and other materials come in and get mixed together, waste generated along the way and either reincorperated into the system or sold. \"zero waste created\" but this can mean just sold off... when tires are used, small particles of rubber released into the environment. recycling of tires has a lot of creative oppurtunities.

Andrew: how does everyone feel about the type of system where you buy one thing and give one of them to some other group? http://www.toms.com/
Chiara: wouldn't happen in italy because people don't think that the money's going where they say

alison: melissa's shoes:
http://www.melissaplasticdreams.com/home/usa

Chiara G: wouldn't happen in

growing clothes http://www.biocouture.co.uk/

Kathryn: Write a two paragraph summery of what upcycle is ..

Priv: Think about the energy put into anabolic vs. energy from catabolic processes
Show me the money, finances have to be taken into account

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Jul3-Techshop
"TechShop
http://techshop.ws/
Build Your Dreams Here
3 July 2010
2:03pm

Javier and Julielynn:
http://picasaweb.google.com/singularityu/TechShop#5489805005712394546

Dan Barry: 
Neil has put this together. Negotiated with TechShop CEO.
I have had a lot of questions about why I can't go on this trip.
This is your trip. Other people will get to go on other trips.
Be the tutors for the other students who may want to come.
Involve the rest of the class. Come in groups of 3. Make stuff.
With opportunity comes responsibility.

Neil:
TechShop - for molecules and matter what Kinko's does for data.
Opening around the world.
You've seen the lectern with LED lights.
Robert is the hero of that project.
Exec Program put that together.
SU Sign. Solar PV. Weatherproof for outside.
Until then probably inside. Light enough to put on wall.
Plasma torch.
Shop bot.
Soldering.

Robert:
Welcome.
I'm Robert Thomas. Dir. of Operations.
Mark Hatch our CEO.
Will open additional locations across country.
Trying to keep up with our own popularity.
Lucky to get in with high profile groups.
Hurst
Talking to Ford
MIT
Organizations interested in what we can provide.
SF
San Jose - October
Detroit
NY
LA (3 at once) If you don't do 3 in LA, you piss somebody off.
Waivers I am going to ask you to sign.
Print name at top. Sign at bottom.
Not a lot of time - going to move quickly.
So, I'll start these clipboards going around ...

[signed wavier]

So, when you finish up, just pass to the next person.
I'm going to go grab Abe, then we'll start the tours.

2:14pm
Robert:
Going to tell you about TechShop.
Founded by Jim Newton in 2006.
Worked at Mythbusters.
He was the science advisor.
Was spoiled, as they are, with the shop they have.
The guy is a modern Thomas Edison. Over 200 inventions he want to make real.
Sad to find out that such a shop did not exist.
When he found it was not available, he decided to make one.
MakerFaire - makers of things get together and share what they made.
Jim set up a table, collected 1000 names and one $100 bill.
He refined a business model. No bank would listen to him.
They pushed him away.
He got depressed about it.
People started e-mailing, saying, \"Have you got it going yet? Do you need money?\"
Got $100,000 - crowdsourced money.
this is our beta location. 
Profitable for several quarters now.
Moved into new equipment.
Professionals using space.
Proving successful in market we were trying to tap. 
Walk through ...

We don't have stairmasters. We have tools.
Some need courses.
Individual membership is $125/month. Open 7 days per week.
We think SF will go 24/7 pretty quick.
Looks like it will be 24/7 - but at 3AM, guys hopped up on Red Bull may be a bit scary.
Family - add for $50.
Student membership - $75. Negotiate with parents.
Corporate - outsourcing R&D. No overhead of machine shop. Fail early, fail often.
We enable that to the Nth degree.
Single day visit is $25.
Advanced training. Solidworks. AdobeWorks.
For working with laser cutters.
Can put Dream Coach in touch with you - give you path of least resistance for success.

Neil:
We want to accelerate.
2:22

Member workshop area.
Binwall from Mythbusters homage.
Tables have air tools.
Collection of materials and projects.
[random guy is building atomic deposition system]

Alison: So we could send things here?

We cherry pick now. Send us a list.
Not for building your home entertainment system.

Neil: 
Set up to do one project. Last time, one podium.
This time a sign.

Q: Prototype?
We can work that out.
2:25

3D Scanner.
3D Printer.

Neil: Got it at SU.
2:27
Toolroom

2:28
The hub - free popcorn, coffee, tea.
Fridges - put your name on things!
Hub computers for design work. Use thumb drive, move to equipment.
Shoulder surfing.
Radical collaboration space.
2:30
Machine shop.
Vertical mills.
CNC - Computer Numeric Control.
Builds things up in 3D printer.
This thing mills them away.
2:32
Laser cutters.
Rotary attachment, card stock - prototypes. Will use these today.

2:34
Hot and metal shop.
Plasma cutter.
Oxy torches.
2:35
Wood working 
CNC Shopbot - 3D router
Pirate 
iPod case
Gizmo. Got 4800 orders in 24 hours. Farmed out to 3 different locations, raised price, orders doubled.

This is about prototyping, not production.
2:40
Fabric room.

Dan Barry: Divide into groups. Everyone will get to do plasma torch and shopbot and laser cutter. 4 stations. All end up with SU logo (hood ornament). They cut out the S to save time.
You will do the welding.

2:41
Sebastian: Group A! We are going to demolish Group B.
I'm Sebastian. One of the techs here. We keep the machines running.
No beer before using tools (the conf room has a beer fridge).

Let's go.
2:42
30 min per station.

Shopbot
10 foot
Will do outline cuts.
Routing.
We will just do 2D cutting. Can also do 3D: guitar bodies. Molds for carbon fiber.
This machine will cut that out of foam.

We're going to fist tell the machine to find home.
Then find the surface of the material.
Total, solid wood base. Typically, you just screw your work to it and it cuts it out.
Bambooplywood Plyboo.
Will find surface of wood with CAD software.
Much easier to use [machine starts moving]

Q: How could we go from AutoCAD to this?
You can do it at home on any CAD program, import into CAM software.
Converts a CAD file to cut file.

Q: We can do the CAD work back in Innovation class, then bring file here.
Q: Would that software give warning?
As you can see, the machine has taken serious gouges out.
If it is told to go 2 inches deep, that's what it does.
Designing you part is covered in class.

Machine has now found home. Now it needs to find where surface is located.
It tests this a couple of times. Finding the Z.

Actually first time I have run this program.

Machine knows exactly where it is, now a new program will make the cut.
Routing out only 1/1000th of an inch.

It will generate a part in a very short period of time.
Q: How often do you need to replace bits?
Months, unless you jam it into a screw.

That's the base for the thing you are going to make [a rectangle with ellipses like an electron diagram].

Lot of open source CAM software. 
[everyone is running their own cut - making bases for the SU hood ornaments]
That cutter is spinning at 8000 RPMs.

Dan: You can make complicated things.
That is about 1% of the capacity of this machine. You can put drill bits in.
Dan: You can build furniture. Chairs to match your back perfectly.
2:55
Q: Price?
$18-25,000
Q: Resolution?
Tolerance on X/Y is tighter than on Z.
Q: IR beam for safety?
Nothing. It would think your arm was wood.

3:07 Moving to drill.
Photos posted to http://picasaweb.google.com/singularityu/TechShop#
All 10 of us now have bases.

See http://picasaweb.google.com/singularityu/TechShop#5489805973467669186

3:15 Laser cutter
Don't stare at the light.
It is as bright as the sun.
Use CAD to create DXF.
This will cut up to 2 inch thick steel.
Cutting now:
http://picasaweb.google.com/singularityu/TechShop#5489808119235031490
Almost done. Doing two more cuts.
Dan: Has to be conductive material.

Podium - run up on this laser cutter.
Dan: Normal way - design in design software the thing you want.
Now you'll take the power of light in your own hands.
Cut through steel like it is butter.
You have a lightening bolt in your hand.
Metal is vaporized.
Trick to it is to hold the thing in 2 hands, don't move too fast and you will get a nice cut.
Not too slow. Just like Goldilocks.
3:22
Definitely need welders glasses. 
Hand held cutter. Way more dangerous.
Everyone needs gloves.
Neil: Do short things in bursts.
Can't relate this to anything other than airbrush.
More like cutting through butter. Don't push too hard or go too fast.
Everybody got goggles on?
Nice and easy, nice and smooth.

Alison cutting: http://picasaweb.google.com/singularityu/TechShop#5489810095626430018

Cut out heart shape from sheet of steel. Very easy!
3:34
What do you think of the plasma cutter?
[applause]
Yeah, it is one of my favorite toys.

Cost? About $14K. Fancier one is $17-18K.

Alison cuts out her iHeartSwitch Logo.
Javier in full laser cutter gear:
http://picasaweb.google.com/singularityu/TechShop#5489813688599163506
(note the Etherpad reflected in his goggles!)

Cut out initials (JG). Could feel heat.
http://picasaweb.google.com/singularityu/TechShop#5489827296798988754

3:47 Moving to laser cutter.

$20,000 each. 3 in shop.
Today, etching. 
Into wood.
Design from CorelDRAW.
Puts our names in.
Etched John Graves into plywood.
http://picasaweb.google.com/singularityu/TechShop#5489817007368482098

Teguest in welding gear:
http://picasaweb.google.com/singularityu/TechShop#5489818128744840834

4:30 Finished welding 
4:38 On to assembly
http://picasaweb.google.com/singularityu/TechShop#5489829140889536018

4:43 Time for a beer!
http://picasaweb.google.com/singularityu/TechShop#5489829850063259778
http://picasaweb.google.com/singularityu/TechShop#5489830630719772706

Neil: Electronics skills you can do at SU.
You've got all the skills and tools needed to make an SU Sign.

4:54 3D printed crescent wrench
http://picasaweb.google.com/singularityu/TechShop#
(like http://www.cooperhandtools.com/brands/CF_Files/model_detail.cfm?upc=037103222060 but in plastic)

Laptop battery end of life ...

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Jun06-Salim-5C-27s-Philosophy-Talk
"July 6, 2010 1930 Salim's Philosophy Talk

The Human Condition
( ( ( ( (soul) subconsciousness) consciousness) family) environment)

"
http://su-etherpad.com/ai
"AI Discussion
Every Wednesday at 10pm in 583C
Suspended

(or is it AGI - Artificial General Intelligence? To me and others at MIT, AGI specifically connotes Goertzel-like models. I prefer to refer to it as \"classical AI\" meaning the original sense of the term, as opposed to more modern \"narrow AI.\" If you don't like \"classical AI\" then \"strong AI\" will do.)

Those of us who are interested in AI will be meeting Wednesdays at 10pm in building 583C to exchange ideas and plan possible AI efforts post-SU; it's not a TP and I want to discourage forcing it into TPs, but it is important that we keep it active.

We have some Google Waves, hosted at http://wave.singularityu.org
If you don't have access to these waves, send email to me, davidad@alum.mit.edu, or just put your singularityu.org address here:

---

John Graves: I have an interest in \"II\" - Interactive Intelligence. Please let me know if this would fit on the group's agenda one wee.

turing test in 1950 didn't have a date
newell and simon GPS
herb simon - machines will be capable of doing any work a man can do --> clearly not true..

1997 is when a computer beat a grand master in chess which was 30 years after it was initiall predicted

narrow AI vs strong AI
shakey the robot 1960 - 1972 @ computer history museum...

applications, analytical paths to AGI, reverse engineering the brain

doug engelbert ---> mother of all demos , 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Engelbart
Computer mouse, Hypertext, Groupware,Interactive Computing

Electroencephalography 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electroencephalography

what's the problem...
ancient brain architecture, systemic global problems, evolutionary hardwired biases
limited attention capacity
technology amplifies our power +/-
navigation requires increasing rapidly

the news is always biased as negative, and highjacking our thinking with a negative bias...

representation, inference, control

narrow ai expert systems....
experts
facts
sensors

irony, humor, empathy is difficult for computers but much easier for humans...

peter norvig

cooperate, learn, autonomus...

hybrid knowledge system 
calo, cognitive assistant the learns and organizes
worlds largest agent based system

SRI international

embedded AI
irobot --> inititally did government work, 
roomba, autonomous vehicles
lego mindstorms
soccer strategy robots --> robo soccer
willow garage --> open source robotics

stanford iRoom

second life --> agents virtual reality

opencog --> project to develop AGI
http://opencog.org/wiki/The_open_cognition_project

electroencephalography
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electroencephalography

functional magnetic resonance - fMRI

artificial general intelligence...
how do we harass this capability?
What kind of value system do we embedd?

AGI --> make sure all the data are linked... 

to what extent is SIRI more broad AI
multiple scripts... going against cloud services to make a unique user experience...

predictions will likely better than in the past, but still very difficult to predict this...

what is the best framework for AGI?? do we even know what the best framework is?
the ability to identify generalizations...
have system for doing semantics of data --> true natural language processing

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Jul22-The-Internet-of-Things
"Thursday
7/22/2010
9-12:00
583C
Internet of Things
David Orban
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaYjc0M2EwNmQtNjI1OC00NWMwLTg3NzUtY2NlZDE4M2JjZjNk&sort=name&layout=list&pid=0B2Ij9HPeinaFODJjNjVlYTItNTlhMC00YzI0LWFlZDEtM2U3NTg3ODc5OTNj&cindex=10
(Note: These slides are in Pages - a Mac word processing application.)

Student list: http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Jul22-Orban

Spime Introduction
What ->
The open internet of things is a network of networks :)
Designed and built for humans
This way of designing of computers cannot hold anymore and go to a new type of internet, that is not only operated by humans but also by things. It must be open right from the start. 
Industry Standards = I control it (say the corporations)

We know that it is not enough to start and study social networks and viral marketing or stuff that is already there and deployed, it means we are observing the past and projecting it out into the future. 

Evolving devices. 
The last generation of computational devices that built on the old designs are mobile phones.
The next generation is called \"SPIME\" 
SPIME = SPace + tIME
Science fiction books are a great resource and inspiration and a design pattern that we can pick up to implement.

(side note: HP started silicon valley, its a power house here. Science fiction books are a great resource)

A Granular World
IP is internet protocol invented by Vinton G. Cerf, (coming to SU)
*** Check out Internet for Peace Proposal. 
http://www.internetforpeace.org/manifesto.cfm

We have so many IP addresses at home that we ran out of IP addresses. IPv4 can only do about 1Billion Devices
Original Internet is a peer network, what we have now is the opportunity to go back to those rules. 
P2P is not a crime, do not criminialize a basic technology.
reference document: http://www.fourmilab.ch/ 

All computers are IPv6 ready, it just a question now of turning it on. 
You might want the address to be permanent 
Privacy Issues
Replacement Issues
Understanding means being able to give names and call out those names
That is what IP is about (making the world addressable and understandable)

What will change in the future is our desire to take care of our devices. What happens is that all the gadgets are depending on me and designed with me at the center. Even something as something as elementary as charging is such a burden. As the number of devices starts to radically exceed the number of humans on the planet. 
(Intel Road Map for what they call the Claytronic Network)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claytronics

Computing, memory, communication, location, and sensing are the features put in any device then it is a SPIME device. 
This is not 100% true, so if it has interspective values, like a depleating charge. 
Example: Roomba knows when its charge is depleating and recharges itself and goes back to cleaning. 

Network Evolution: 
When the web was invented it was detached from physical reality. It was about access the data from wherever and make them accessible. 

\u201cThe formula for success? Double your rate of failure.\u201d Thomas J. Watson, IBM
\u201cThe Internet multiplied a thousandfold our failure rate, without increasing the cost of our success\u201d Cory Docotrow

Network Evolution
Generation Isotropy Access
Web Data Knowledge
Web 2.0 Applications Social
Spimes Sensors World

QUESTION: 
Andrew Chalkin. There is a lot of information. How does this get translated when the information is like a firehose? 
ANSWER: Getting to that

Redundancy of Spines
We all know how important it is to make good decisions about climate change\u2026we might want to look scientifically and not dogmatically\u2026if it is happening, we want to know why? We then want to change our behavior, ext\u2026..
So NASA said instead of looking at economic data for the Kyoto\u2026the way they measure CO2 emissions by nations is surveys of industrial outputs\u2026\u2026so they created the OCO (Orbiting Carbon Observatory \u2013 Jet Propulsion Laboratory \u2013 California Institute of Technology)
July 19, 2009, observatory was launched and blew up

We need to rely on a nework that doesn't have a single point of failure. 
We have too much information, the planet and our artificial networks are talking to us
What will happen is that we want to listen and learn from them, they will listen to each other and learn from each other.

Changing Dialog
Generation Bandwidth M2M Index
Industrial apps Kb/s 1%
Realtime Web Mb/s 10%
Spime Networks GB/s 99%+

In terms of percenatge of actions carried out by humans, these actions will be very small compared to 
Example of machine dialog is going on are the little tics we hear when a speaker and mobile phone are near each other. Its going on all around us already!

Question: Bryce. What determines the frequency of the sounds of things?
Answer: The bit rate. The cell phone is trying to see if the line is clear... and finding a reliable speed. 

DATA Deluge:
Most of our perceptional system is based on discarding instead of including. 
Photo: LHC http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_Hadron_Collider outside of CERN

?_____?

Question: Can I go back and get to the data that was thrown away (Chiara)
Answer: , the information is put aside and now you have twice as many emails to read. No, you will never go back and read that email, but from time to time you will run a search. So its searchable and you apply filters. The problem is the amount of data built by machine is so large we don't have enough storage systems to keep it even if its only a few days. 

This will happen with sensor networks as well. 

Important: The network has to be stupid. You don't want to build intelligence into the system. 
What is going to happen is that the Spine networks are going to generate enourmous amount of data. W/In ten years they are going to generate more than 1.5 Exobites a day. 

Google only touches the survice of the web. 

Imagine that you have an email inbox that receives a constant amount of email every day, this is more than can be read \u2013 so you say, \u201cwell there could be something that I want to read here but I can\u2019t now, so I\u2019ll put it aside\u201d\u2026.this continues day after day, so \u2013 you will never go back and ready the email. What you do from time to time is run a search (apply filters) problem though is the amount of data generated by the machine are so large there is not a system that can keep the data even for a few days, so it is gone. This is what is going to happen to the sensor networks as well. One principle at the origin of everything is that the network ahs to be stupid (the internet is stupid) \u2013 it finds a route, the route breaks (it doesn\u2019t ask questions\u2026it doesn\u2019t care) it just continues on to find another route. What is going to happen, is the SPIME networks are going to generate an enormous amount of data, w/I 10 yrs, if we are building SPIME networks, they will generate more than 1.5 EB/day!

Data Deluge
Year Network Data
Now Deep Web ~1.5 EB
2020 Spime Network >1.5 EB/day

The answer is intelligence of the NODE \u2013 the decision making power of the node itself, that can not only take data but UNDERSTAND what must be done with it.

Not Blind Anymore
Object # sensors
Mobile Phones 10
Car 50-100

AWARENESS: 
Example is the Volvo __ tells you how close you are to the cars around you and let you know you need to be breaking. THE NEW PIECE, if you don't break, it will break for you. 

This is new because, technology people love to find solutions without concerning themselves about the consequences. 
If we are not alert, society could reject some of the solutions even if its an excellent solution, so the consequences are extremely important. 

What is the consequence of the machine breaking your car for you? 
- your frightened by the breaking and grab the steering wheel and turn
- if you hit the other car, who is liable? is it you or the car maker? 
- the insurance company? who is going to buy the insurance for the AI because it makes bad decisions? 

WHO
Slide with Bruce Sterling's picture \"Forget trying to pass for normal\" 
IPSO allanance(http://www.ipso-alliance.org/Pages/Front.php)
See slides for multiple examples of internet examples

10-year plan by Justin Rattner to create a claytron netowrk. 
What this means you can program the shape of things, not like 3D printers or carving and not as smart as nano-machines (in 20 years). What you can do is tell a piece of dust what shape and color to have, dymanically. Truly astounding. 

the Anthropocene:
- 10000 bc total composition of terrestrial biomass in the wild was 98%
- now: is 2%

what do we do now? ( the colisium image)

It is up to us to adapt, in the meantime we cannot loose this planet. 

Hiding Information:
The arctic scientific data images were considered secrete, this kind of hiding of information is recreational scuicide 

Device examples that help the world/environment:
Wide Noise
Social Meter
Spime Design Workshop

Spime is built to be highly scalable and is targeting over 1M data events in one moment. 

FUTURE:
Examples, Robotic cars are going to create a network. 

4G Communication
relative value of cattle is so high that knowing what it is doing is precious information

Energy
Smart grids, Cisco, turning grid into smart netowrk

Quantified Self: 
Health, everything is pointing to the fact that we have to be responsible for our own bodies and how we function. Measurements and alterts of what is going on is going to be a fundamental responsibility of each individual. 

Bre Pettis \"Things are changing faster than we can die\" 

The internet of things is already hapening
Our mobile networks are sensors

If we are right about this strange place we are in now in space and time, when we recognize that we are going through a single planetary co-evolution\u2026we will have the opportunity to be human again, for 10,000 years we have been living for a time that the sticks we invented brought us to a lower quality of life than what was enjoyed by the hunters and gatherers before, they didn\u2019t live as long, but when agriculture was invented, we suffered a lot\u2026.but now we are suffering (slaves to our machines) that is why we have to set them free in order for us to become free\u2026\u2026.

WATER SPECIFIC NOTES:

Alibaba.com
Alibaba is an originally Chinese but now a global website for sourcing components. 
Water sensors featured on Alibaba are categorized by a couple of different filters including level, pressure or temperature.
The site not only helps to find what you need but it can also serve as an inspiration. The limitations are that they do not expose what the future holds.
You can also have companies build circuits and sensors in low volumes to experiement.
You will need to be able to specify what it is you specifically need.

arxiv.org
The site features peer reviewed journals and can be accessed via search. 
This is interesting for upcoming research that PhDs are looking at and working on.

Google Scholar
This is a journal search engine and indexes patents as well. It covers citations and you can use quotations to further qualify your search results.
You can integrate Google Scholar into Google Reader that can syndicate content to your Google reader account.

Questions:

What sensors would you use in pipes?
When you are working with sensor networks you need to understand how to get power to the sensors. If it's wired it is possible however if it was distributed it would be challenging. In some instances the power source will be disguised.
If you have an electric wire you can use them to collect information. With water you don't necessary need precise accurancy. 

WiMax has the range of ten miles vs WiFi which has a range of 100 feet. WiMax is actually not too expensive.

Price dynamics are important in sensor networks. The price is going down quickly and somewhat exponential but not all components are driven down.

In terms of human labor it is a consideration to involve local communities. 

Agriculture water use is immensely taxing however there are new drip irrigation techniques which reduce the amount of water use. Germany uses this technology a lot however it is done at scale. Sensors used in these systems could be useful in treating crops in a distributed way. Then look at integrating water recycling as an input for irrigation.

Drip irrigation exists but costs are still high. 

Externalities are the hidden costs that you cannot not consider when you have a closed system. This includes as waste, pollution, etc.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/philosophy
"Philosophers Anonymous
Every Monday at 9pm in 583C

At my undergraduate institution (UMBC), I was a member of an informal group called Philosophers Anonymous. They had a pretty good model for getting discussions going. Members would volunteer to give 5-10 minute presentations (generally speaking from notes, no slides) about a particular philosophical issue - Newcomb's paradox, philosophical zombies, Sorites paradox, or whatever they were interested in. They'd describe the problem and give arguments for one or both sides, and then other people would begin to contribute more arguments. These discussions would usually go for at least 45 minutes before the topic would be exhausted.

If you want to present about an issue, list your name and the topic here. If you'd like to vote for a topic someone else proposed, add a star (*) to the beginning of the line.
------
*davidad - Mary the Color Scientist
**EK - moral complexity based on information theory
EB - Sartre's 'Bad Faith'
*Marie-Clare - Putnam's Twin Earth
------

Below are the dates we have available throughout the program, according to the SU calendar. I will be matching up dates and topics as those dates approach.
------
*Monday, June 28 (davidad + Mike Chen - Mary the Color Scientist)
Monday, July 5 (Marie-Clare Treseder- Putnam's Twin Earth?)
Monday, July 12 (Emma Brooke - Jean Paul Sartre's 'Bad Faith'?)
Monday, July 19 Shary: genes/neuroimaging as court testimony? (link below)
Monday, July 26
Monday, August 2
Monday, August 9
Monday, August 16
Monday, August 23 [we'll probably be too busy with final reports at this time]
------

Looks Great Davidad! I may not have time to fully prepare on a topic , but even if I can't I'd love to make it to all your meetings (providing no surprise staff meetings)! Black and White Mary is a great one to start with, perhaps we could follow with Putnam's Twin Earth this Monday? (Pertinent, I believe, because of the heavy use of metaphysical arguments in SU presentations...) Yes, that's a great one. I like semantics. :D [in fact, one of my three gmail addresses is the.semantics.are.relevant@gmail.com]
This coming Monday (the 28th) will be the first meeting of this group, in case that wasn't clear.
I'd like to talk on something existential-y... (Em)
I'd like to present the rudiments of a theory of moral complexity based on information theory (EK)... shout if it sounds interesting...
SHOUT
This sounds like fun !! 
Very interested in this subject.
On genetic defense in court: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128043329
You might enjoy looking at http://www.justiceharvard.org/

"
http://su-etherpad.com/chm
"Trip to the Computer History Museum

Note: I have been informed that there may or may not be an official site visit to the CHM. If there is, this is probably a redundant idea. I hope we can find out ASAP.

There is no site visit because the museum is cloed until August 1 due to construction. Thus, we'll revisit this idea when they reopen.

http://www.computerhistory.org/hours/
I'd like to see one of the PDP-11 demonstrations...perhaps July 3 would be a good time to go?

FYI GSP09 went to the Museum last year, so any of the students around can give you any more info, should you be interested.

John Graves: I'm in.
david.n.hutch@gmail.com (just put your email address if interested, it'll make it easy to send out an email)
carlos.azevedo@singularityu.org

"
http://su-etherpad.com/stevenkotler
"Demo etherpad

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Jul5-Robot-Presenter
"5 July 2010

Robot Presenter Proposal

Idea:
1/ \"Explode\" PowerPoint slide deck into multiple image files (one image per slide)
2/ Connect the Etherpad transcript of the speaker's words slide-by-slide in an Open Allure script
3/ Play using Text-to-Speech and voice/vision capabilities of Open Allure

To Do:
1/ Find tool which \"explodes\" PowerPoint presentations. Surely this already exists ...
2/ Modify Open Allure Python code to display a linked image
3/ Create scripts

Add your name below if you're interested in this proposal:
John Graves

"
http://su-etherpad.com/education-20for-20women
"Lizzie: 2 major problems - infrastructure (women are needed at home to work) and finance (both individual and for the institution). If you build a school, you have to make sure it's self sustaining
there are mincroloans available for women to allow for schooling

People think primary education is the problem, but it's really secondary education

Technical curriculum very weak, in Afghanistan/Pakistan, there is no mandated IT, but teachers can choose to give very low-level IT lessons

You have to CONSIDER CULTURAL SENSITIVITY - if you don't err on this side, you may experience cultural rejection even if you're teaching very important ('Americanized') curriculum

Look up ASIAN UNIVERSITY FOR WOMEN (Gates Foundation funded)

Major problem: lack of coordination between these different organization

Emem: we need a central house that ranks performance in an attempt to standardize
Lizzie: there is the beginning of this,, look at Charity Navigator or Global Giving, but I agree, this is an important goal

Lizzie: 
What happens to girls who are in the top 10 percentile-ish? Statistically speaking for every year a woman is educated she and her children live longer, and she has fewer children. Societal benefits are tremendous. These matrilineal paths, with women who value reading, writing, thinking, kids are many times more likely to proceed in such directions.
Emem: It's a man's world. When you're equipped to understand it, you can be intergrated more.
If we can get this generation to all be educated, maybe in the next gen it won't be as important to break the glass ceiling
Yara: I'm talking about the type of education that teaches self-confidence; independence; social culture, to consider - I couldn't stay at the univ past 8 because it was inapprpriate for me to be there. There's no social life for women to develop a love for education/development. You have to enforce interaction. 
Emem: it's difficult to get to the point where someone can get to put a condom on a banana - this needs to be done on a small level. In America, evey high school student does it
Kauser: women in my family have and do struggle wit th these issues. in our family, most important is ROLE MODELS. I mean male and female. We all go back to India to spend time with people and impress upon them what education has done. I had my wedding in India in a village to see the impact of education on our lives and to honor them. Changes come because we must become role models.
Erika: totally agree, very important not to grow complacent about our status here;
Eugenie: even in France, women don't have equality; there is a lot of criticism
THE GIRL EFFECT http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIvmE4_KMNw
Lizzie: it's not enough to educate, you need to give them something to do with that - teach them health care, have them teach to village, givve them accounting skills
Yara: bringing up Larry Summers 2005 incident. Girls in school more capable of algebra but men better at spatial recognition of certain kinds. Women can be trained to match these capabilities. These distributions are important to consider. Men write textbooks in a way that's more applicable and accessible TO MEN; this can cause comprehension difficulties for women. 
Lizzie: ITunes University - Apple collected massive conglomerate of knowledge. This is related to Yara's point in that differen't instruction styles come out immediately and you can choose the people whose style appeals to you best. This is free and open to the public. 
Yara: Academic earth.
Erika: concrete way to structure informal university or secondary education
Eugenie: local coaches a good idea in conjunction
Mercy: it's good to have education at primary and secondary school level but to develop a country's economy you need high education. sometimes aid don't stipulate where it should go, usually it goes to elementary, and what happens to university? I think we should have center of excellence where people can do research. also, if you're in the states doing research, the IP belongs to the university, and tha's a problem for the home countries
Claudia: we have a relevant center in India (Claudia, fill in)
Yara: if women are oppressed physically, she cannot transcend mentally THERE ARE SOCIAL PROBLEMS TO OVERCOME - educate against this?
Mercy: in Kenya we have communities with female genital mutilation. the only way to escape this is to be in school.
Candice: is there a way to reach down to primary education and cram more information in there, to try to make them more likely to continue, too
Mercy: you have to make it free
Emem: educating the mothers is a good approach. uneducated mothers with young chiren, you put in resources, give them mincrofinance jobs, when they go home, as they cook, they educate their children, and since they're educated, they want their children to be too. you tell you daughters what to do.

Allison: three ways proven to make a difference: 1. father figure 2. male role model (like teacher) or 3. all girls school
Lizzie: but these cultural norms are built on realities that we're hoping to change
People here:
Zain, Eugenie, Erika, Emem, Shaorn, Mercy, Claudia, Allison, Hind, Candice, Carlos, Juan, Kauser, Everson, Brad, Yara, Rand

JULY 6

Present: Bryce, adriana, Claudia, Eugenie, Emem, Mercy, Sharon, Valentina, Erika, Hind, Maggie (notes)

Eugenie: Background -- let's get an idea and do it!
Mercy: Focus on confidence -- foundation. Women who are educated already can meet monthly and give scholarships to girls who need it. Meetings in schools, etc. Women as successful. 
Eugenie: Women can help and coach younger women.
Mercy: We could create sororities -- network. 

Big Brother, Big Sister -- internationally
Check which networks 
professional development would be an important part of the package. also a \"linkedin\" function. i need to get a hold of this paper. get a relationship between different institutions. age, education qualification. 
who is the target population? actively in secondary school
goldman sachs 10,000 women initiative -- network of academic institutions and other groups to help women be entrepreneurial. 
emem: it is targeted to professional women. already \"there.\"
claudia: they are not always \"there.\" poor settings. they DO have to show interest in the program. See http://www2.goldmansachs.com/citizenship/10000women/index.html for more info.

let's make a name
a website - internal first
a benchmark/market analysis
networking list/ videoconference
define project: scope, mission statement, problem, partners

claudia: 40, 50 school visits -- girls wanted to be teachers. they were exposed to female teachers. is there a program for girls to be teachers? junior teachers? 8, 9, 10 years old

Emem: how do we give young women an incentive to be a role model?
Hind: We should focus on the role model. Teaching: easy job, prevent the women from going outside of the village. There is no motivation to go further.
Claudia: Recognition and respect as incentive. 
Emem: We should consider financial incentive. If ou can show that you've impacted 10 people, you get a particular amount of money.
Claudia: \"Junior teachers\" -- there is a huge lack of teachers where they are most needed. Slums lack teachers. The working conditions are horrible. Even 15 ear olds could help give help to the younger ones.
Erika: Here in the US, these programs are very successful.
Teach First
Mercy: There is an educational opportunity in South Africa. High schools --> nforced curriculum. How to use math in the real world, how to build stuff, how to reason.

Hind: we had a program where peope helped women.
different approaches to different countries, not a one-size fits all

access to internet? how can we move offline?

we could do both 

name?

class at MIT? UC extension berkeley
accreditation?

videoconferencing? law: continuing legal education

bryce: oxford has a women in science society -- lots of universities do. they send out women to the developing world. 
claudia: another partnership. think global school. social justice. india, africa, south america -- live in this area. use high school students as mentors. http://www.thinkglobalschool.org/

president of liberia -- pretty amazing. sheriffe johnson. maybe she would be interested?

delegation of tasks

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Jul11-GM
"Sunday
7/11/2010
8:15pm
Building 20

GreggMaryniak10July.ppt
Slides: http://bit.ly/aGHL4s

Three Essential Things for Sustainable Space Activity
Energy
Atoms
Intelligence

LEO - $5-10,000 per pound for matter
Control in real time out to about 2 light seconds - think of Earth having a \"continental shelf\" within this sphere

Representation of real time time delay - 1.2 seconds each way to moon and back.

You are here (space). Your customers are here (Earth).
Not really a market for water in LEO. Yet.
Avoid the trap of anticipating a future market that does you no good now.
Ask, what are the equivalent of the golden spices of the Orient.
What is it?
Information - conveying through satellites.
JTrack3D - astonishing application lets you see where all the satellites are. Totally rocks.

Q: How many satellites in orbit?

500

Q: How big can it grow?

Not very big.

Q: How many in orbit?

Used to be future scientist for ?? corporation.
Artifical spike. What people are dreaming of working on.
What do they do? What is market for that?
If you can send other way, you would. Cable has less latency.
Grow with poplution.
Refeuling.
Real hard one - physical - when they run out of fuel.
Some satellites are out of plane. North/South station keeping problem.
When they die, they are wonderful and functioning.
Comsat - big steerable dishes, we can still use them with \"Comsat maneuver\"
If you can refuel with propellant.
Could mean launching even fewer satellites.

Q: Using price?

How many transponders do you need?
They are getting more capable. Need fewer. 
Basically a wide band, shifts frequency, beam down.

Q: Internet communication?

Satellite broadband. Big dream. 1993-94. Some big players not still there.
Teledesic.
Satcoms - RCA.
They all had dreams of big .
Only one doing it is Hughes.
If you live away from cities. You're lucky to have cable.
Maybe DSL, actually ADSL.
Same with satellites, download fast, upload slow.
Beats some times in places like Indonesia.

The Blastoff Saga: An early attempt at virtual space tourism.

Peter talked to Idealab. About $1 bn in cash. Just put \"internet\" on a stock offering and people would buy it.
Dream - send robot to a moon. 
Movie maker Jim Cameron.
Send a space probe for less than the cost of making a motion picture.

When did Titanic come out?
$200 m to produce.
Half of that came from Cameron's pocket.

So idea morphed into -- what if you could make this into a participatory mission.
Make people feel they are part of it.
Pitch Bill Gross on this.
Counter proposal - they would sponsor XPrize if we helped.
They had a launch on Taurus?
So we bought an Athena II. It was just fixing to launch Lunar Prospector.
Bought this bigger rocket.
Movie about game plan. 5-6 min.
Entertaining.

[video]

8:28
8:34

Really good ideas: planting flags.
Sell to highest bidding sponsor.
That rocket still exists - Lockheed Martin.
Had never been flown before.

Second category.
Ideal product from space has no mass.
Unlikely to bring asteroidal metal from space.
We will eventaully, and sooner than people think, be using energy from space
CA senator - \"Earth metropolitan area\"
Close enough to Earth to talk back and forth.
Close to L2 - stable place between Earth and Moon.

Information predated Electricity. 50 years of telegraphy.
- Space Manufacturing Faciity
- [Mass Driver 1] built out of scrap.
Best you could do, it was thought, was 50G. Needed 5 miles of track.
this piece of garbage got 33 G's first time it was tried.
- [Mass Driver 2]
If you have something that can throw at high velocity, you've got a rocket engine.
Very fancy.

First mass driver was a push only system.
bucket gets squirted like a cumumber seed.

SER was triggered by physical microswitch.

Thought 2 was really smart. Coil first PULLS bucket into it.
Took out reverbertaing current and then PUSHES.

To keep from hitting walls - strip.
More efficient as bucket diameter approaches ring diameter.

Long way, pull only mass driver.
II achieved 500 Gs
III had 1800 Gs - down to 500 feet from 5 miles.

1977 - countdown.
This was the only one you could see.
II and III moved too fast to see.

Apple II was just hitting the street.

Lot of people talked about this idea. Arthur Clarke talked about things.

Share some other technological stuff. E-mail:
==
orbital energy research
http://orbital-energy.com/research.html

In particular, you might find #12: Resources of Free Space vs. Flags and Footprints on Mars and (by Richard Boudreaut and me) and #1 The World's Energy Future Belongs in Orbit (by Gerard K. O'Neill) to be good starting points.

I look forward to discussing these subjects at this evenings' Space TP meeting.
==

Bucket. Very robust machine.
Few moving parts.
Big problem, abrasion from dust.
Dust may be our friend on the moon.
Over the years, you don't have to take whole pie of moon material apart.
As goofy as saying you need cellulosic science to make use of trees.
You need an axe.

Swedes came and built log cabins.

You don't have to do sophisticated chemistry.
Bought for Joe this fresnel lens
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fresnel_lens

You want a small tool that can transform many times its mass.
Worked with McDonnell Douglas 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas
who built Stirling Cycle power generator
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_engine

You can make fiberglass on the moon. Better than on Earth -- no bubbles.
Fibre and goo - makes something nice and strong.
Making basalt fiber. It works.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basalt

With tiny amounts of dopants
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dopants

Water that is on moon is comet water.

Aluminum business has good ways to work on stuff that is like moon soil.
Oxygen becomes waste product.

We were limited to assumption of finding no water on moon.

- \"Moral Equivalent of War\" markets
Need whole bunch of stuff in space to avoid asteroid.
[New Yorker cartoon - go to Cartoonbank.com]
Promised Salim I'd keep 5% of the audience conscious.

Same tool set that let's you deflect asteroid.
Two committees:
1/ find killer asteroid
2/ what do you do when you find it

Solve energy problem on Earth. You can do it.
Take advantage of the fact that almost everything you read is written by people who are wrong.

If you want to make money in the stock market, bet better.
If you want to make money in space, know more than anybody else.

Mars is hell. Venus is hell cubed.
Paper in list of references: 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerard_K._O'Neill
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Konstantin_Eduardovich_Tsiolkovskii

Space is the new world.
Unlike previous new world. No biosphere to screw up. No indigenous people.

- Ultimate Space Exploration Goals
Sustainable non-polluting energy for Earth
Significant human population 

- Ultimate Product
Hope for the future
More choices
alternatives to conflict
Promise of adventure

- Is there hope?
Life is tough. Expensive. Hard. A prayer of any of this happening?
Two parables.
Lunar Prospector \"Making Stone Soup in Space\"
O'Neill had premise - finding water at poles on the moon.
5% of lunar scientists thought this.
No polar summers on moon.
- Stone soup? 
I went crazy. We've got to find it.
$1 bn new start
82.4% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
Politics replicated at ISU summer program
PIs would argue, instead of small cheap thing, ended up with $5 bn program.
Peter was at kiddy library -- even made Peter feel big.
Showed him \"Stone Soup\" story. Secret of the universe.
Tried to send probe to the moon.
NASA kicked in a side of beef.
Other people put in bits of salt and pepper.

Q: Can you describe that without the metaphor?

Gamma ray spectrometer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamma_ray_spectrometer
One left over from Apollo.
Spoke to Dana Robocker?

Fund raising - good to have 1/3 of money before you go public.

In early days, looked at fun and whacky ideas.
LGAS - Lunar Getaway Special.
Buy for $3-5,000. Big $5,000 one had a flip top lid.
Fine print - human rated system - darn near impossible to get anything to actually fly.
Can you fold up an ion system small enough to fit the GAS can.

Study in 1985.
Jim French
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_R._French

What if we could do water finding mission - a couple instruments max for $50 m?

Put out for RFP.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RFP

Company made of Hughes engineers did this as a hobby.
They responded with 4 big 4 inch binders with half the design work done.
Out job was all about risk reduction.
Downhill slide - obvious they could finish it.
May 1990. 
Alan Binder
Jim Burke

1985 - try raising $25 m. We failed. Thought we were out of luck.
Then Dan Golden became head of NASA.
We'll let people propose Discovery Class missions.

5:30 Saturday morning I get a call. \"We're going to the moon.\" 
It happened and NASA paid for it.

Really interesting historical anomaly.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anomaly

True/False - a human being is buried on the moon today.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_Shoemaker

Earth has round lakes everywhere. Australia.

Q: Metals. Why go to asteroids? Why not go to craters on moon?

Good idea.
Asteroids are on the plateau of free space - moving millions of tons. Even small asteroid.

Q: What about delta V?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_v

Still works out to be less.

Lunar prospector took $63 m.

- In 1955 this first commercial transistor radio sold for the modern equivalent of about $350.

Big changes happen in the external world.

- Cost per transistor
In 1959, the OEM cost per transistor was $6.
Today, close to 1 million.
Moore's Law propelled by wanting lots of something.

With XPrize - do for space flight what consumer electronics did for electronics.

Spirit of St. Louis story is what inspired XPrize.

- Some Questions for you to consider
How much can you improve upon Convair/General Dynamics Cases C and D with use of newly discovered lunar volatiles?
What about laser or microwave beaming for landing/lift?

Approaches:
Move to L2 for assembly, move to LEO.
Use chemical rockets for launch from moon. How would that change things? Big change.
Millions of tons of volatiles that you could use.

How small can you make an initial bootstrapping system that uses lunar volatiles to provide landing and maybe early uplift to Low Lunar Orbit or a Space Manufacturing Facility?
Can you make the bootstrapping system in small enough pieces that you can launch them as secondary payloads of opportunity?
Alternatively, how many Falcon 9 launches do you need to get this going?

First - figure out how many Falcon 9 launches are needed to do it.

We never give up.
Video was made.

Dmitry: See it.
Delta-v.
Closest between asteroid and LEO was 7. 

GM: Thank you. Lot of stuff on-line. In references I sent.
Hoping to come back in August. See how you are doing.
9:34pm [applause]

Other thing about my slides in general. Not right for you to show them to other people.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/health
"
This pad is a place to collect health project ideas. Here are a couple to get started with:

1) This is related to Peter's tricorder X-prize. 
Develop a set of open source tests for common medical
conditions that are administerable by barely trained users, and an
online database with result ranges and ties to genetic SNPs, together
with a wikipedia-like set of crowd sourced treatments for these
conditions, both pharmacological and non-pharmacological (dietary,
exercise, etc.) The ease of use of the tests would expand penetration
to Africa and other underserved areas, and the crowd-sourced
recommendations would allow the inclusion (and testing) of the
treatments available to a particular group of users who may not have
drugs available. The crowd-sourced nature of the wiki would help
credibility in places where US-led efforts are now traditionally
viewed with suspicion (ie. justifiably, most of the world.)

Hell, that's phrased really poorly. But I think the basic idea is
sound. Take tests out of the hands of pharma companies - basically
George Whitesides mission with his paper-based diagnostics, which he
is already trying to get into use. Take the treatments out of the
exclusive purview of doctors, of which there aren't enough in Africa
anyway. And through education move more responsibility for health onto
individuals.

We could pretty easily start the health wikipedia side of things this
summer, and start dialog with George and others on diagnostics. The
tie to genetics could even help the genetic testing companies with
their current FDA troubles since they can't be held responsible for a
crowd-sourced wiki of diagnostic associations.

I think the concern over accurate information on a publicly editable
wiki is valid, but less than it would have been a few years ago. We
have different requirements than wikipedia in that regard, since the
bar for trying a remedy is higher than looking up wikipedia info, so
we'd need some different rating and reliability measures.

2) a much more focused project based on diabetes and insulin response interventions. Shasha should have something to say about this :-)

3) more on a technical front, but Daniel's stem cell creation box has me all jazzed right now

4) Better electronic health records, with a feature list that goes something like this:
* Accessible to doctors/professionals, patients/people
* Shareable, with good privacy controls
* Built around an ontology, with controlled vocabulary and hierarchy, so they can be more easily used in semantic and data mining applications
* Support for data streams like personal tracking devices (Quantified Self, FitBit, Zeo, etc.)
* Support for data streams like genomics (DNA variants, Copy Number Variations (CNVs), Structural Variations, transcriptomics, gene fusions, epigenomics/methylation, non-coding RNA)
* Support for periodic health monitoring (e.g., blood tests)
* Support for family history, intervention history, medication history, etc.
* Include a social networking and reward component, so that people can use friends support and game dynamics to achieve health goals.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/BMzPJ1dTtZ
"Education Meeting Agenda
Thursday
24 June 2010
10:00 pm
583C \"Infinity building\"

[Meeting was postponed to the Unconference due to the late hour of Peter's conversation with us in 583C.]

Review of kickoff meeting held Tuesday, 22 June 2010
1) A few people will talk for a few minutes each on the challenges in education as they perceive them with their background (some have emailed me, others can volunteer on the night). The goal is to more fully understand all the facets of the problem space. Aim to complete this phase in one hour or less.
2) We consider the feasibility of the model for how this might run, and narrow its scope based upon what we know and have learned. Maximum 45 minutes. Discussion of Education Initiative - Project or Process?
3) We draw up a plan and milestones, considering if/how this might realistically run within the framework of SU. Maximum 45 minutes.

Video presentation

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Jun29-Education-for-women
"Jun29-Education-for-women
9:00pm

"
http://su-etherpad.com/business-cards
"SU business cards are probably a good idea.

[Discuss here]

We need you to submit your info for business cards.
Please include it below.

David \"davidad\" Dalrymple
MIT Mind Machine Project
Programming language theory, AI, software design
Email: davidad@alum.mit.edu
Phone: 619-SC1ENCE
Google Talk: david.dalrymple@cba.mit.edu
Web: http://davidad.net

Emma Brooke
Bioethics and Technological Ethics
ejbrooke@gmail.com
skype: pho_ebe89

Julielynn Wong, MD, MPH
Frank Knox Fellow 2005-6
Harvard School of Public Health
email: julielynn.wong@gmail.com
phone: 412-841-5825

Vincent Daranyi
vincent@daranyi.com
650 335 5489

Carlos Renato Belo Azevedo
Bio-inspired computation
carlos.azevedo@singularityu.org
+1 408 666-3343
+55 81 9974-9966 

Steve Cronin
Innovation Architect & Materials Scientist
stevenwcronin@gmail.com
330-865-5618 (m)

"
http://su-etherpad.com/advice-for-GSP11
"Advice for GSP11

1. Begin using collaborative tools before the program starts. The student calls should be supported by Etherpad + Skype (or whatever software exists next year).

2. Before the program starts, distribute a DVD (or 2) to students containing (open source) software and videos. In some countries (including New Zealand), internet access is charged by the GB. Having the DVD as an artifact would also show how the SU team is well prepared -- especially if the DVD includes a brief what-you-will-see-when-you-arrive segment with a time lapse movie of the trip from the airport to the rooms at SU. The welcome packet with the DVD(s) could also contain something SU-branded like a baseball cap or tote bag for new students to wear/carry to identify themselves to greeters/fellow travelers.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Unconference--20Rand--20Everson
"What is it?

About how DNA sequencing will affect future. How much data it will create. \\How to process, gather data and provide a platform to make the data useful in some way.

Rand technical stuff, everson about integration, business

Everson> About data acquisition
Compare to the internet, biggest benchmark on data today. 10 rs ago on libraries, completely fragmented data, now all together.

Now, we put data on the internet. 

With dna data today, 

we have small islands of data , data is closed. if someone else in the world wants to have access, or to give the data. to understand disease, they don't know where to put it, whot o give it to, and they have to pay to do that.

Compare that with the internet where we have a free eecosystem of data and we crfeate thew hole ecosystem of data. 

How should we create a platform for people to provide their data and actually help solve disease

Javier> Have you heard of cutretogether?

DNA is a sequence, 3b long sequence of 4 letters. Can be encodedin two bits. 6 B bits of data, abouta gigabyte. Times 6 billion, maybe 10B gigabyte sorrted analyzed stored, accessible. Imagine how this will create a new problem space that will be enourmous.

We can do that stuff today. Rand worked on this, dna of hiv virus, mmap to resistance. Computer will give list of 13 drugs and resistance factors fgor each. Based on viral DNA you can choose drug

We have lots of things to do here, machinelearning, map input to output, but we dont have the data to do this, this is the real problem. How do we get all the data. We cannot conduct real analysis.

People might not want to know about preedispositions to alzheimer, parkinsons

But peole want to know which drug will work better.

Usually doctors get paid tho

Go to doctor with your USB key, doctor chooses right molecule for you

You need to centralize data

You give us your dna for free and we provide analysis of your dna

You can get more prersonalised treatments. Personalised choice of medicine, and preventive medicine, predispositions compared to average.

Implications for governments are big, savings for healthcare system.

Tech for cheap rapid dna tech is around the corner.

Human genome 300 M. 
much cheaper today. Nobody taking care of software. 

Rand's phd supervisor said, no commercial application for bioinformatics....

Just missing data for viable commercial

You go to a doctor, don't even need usb key you send a sms to our server, i want tdiagnosis test on this drug, you get back resistance factors. First step is to gather info. talk to pharma labs, until people start sequencing all dna. you can imagine a double curve.

We need to acquire less data as sequencing

diseases treatment diagnoses with dna

There will be statistical signi

Q The reg framework, no principles, helgal or ethical for international data sharing, only infrast, nurenberg code, informed consent. Says whenever experiment involved and experiment subject, must give explicit consent. Contact every single person when you do genome wide study. You need consent from all of them.

Secondly, pressure to anonimize data, that means cutting link from data to person, you cant obtain consent again

2 reqs, informed requirement. they have to kjnow what they are agreeing to, then it is explicit consent, in writing or verbally. email doesnt cut it. 
this is World Health Organisation.

Q. Raycho, In space sector, only a fraction of info that is beamed down to earth is actually used. Need to take that into account when you conssider this data. Problem is how do you process data you receive. If you speak about all this information. Big problem is processing of data. Huge problem in space. 

More to it than 30K genes that we think is in genome, there ishere is junk DNA. Up until now, ppl thought there is non coding DNA, it reduces the likeliness that a mutation will occur in coded region... but not necessarily true. Gave an explanation for .99 junk. Think of genes as functions. A gene will code for a protein, that protein will serve a purpose. You could only look at the genes, they look for mutations in specific genes. We are talking about a ghigher level sort of analysis, to understand a program that defines someone, to use that info to extract as much analysis from it as you can.
To start with you can do the basic thing, look at genes, map this to make records, draw trials

Raycho: Need to proccess huge amounts of data is a problem.

CERN

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"
http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-miscellaneous
"MISC IDEAS
Put everything else here that doesn't fit into one of the team projects
===

Mobile AI Physician

Upcycle/Recycle here, among the SU students (as demonstration of a principle rather than due to its effectiveness).
- More silverware (instead of plastic) during meals. I don't think Barcelona cafe' should mind.
- Water coolers in the dorms and 583C instead of plastic water bottles.
- Personal mugs to minimize the use of single serving cups (hey, an SU logo could be great : ) )
- Maybe we SU students can come up with something cool to do with the waste we do produce (like building a greenhouse room out of plastic bottles or something of that sort)

Start a program for large numbers of med students to spend 1 year in clinical placements in the developing world

Make Malaria Nets Sexy
- Market nets with religious images - Virgin Mary for Catholics, Picture of Mecca for Muslims, Picture of temples for hindus
- Use Football celebs to market use of nets in Africa
- Make nets from cooling materials to ensure they dont get too hot.

HIV/AIDS Vaccine
- Revisit the VENGEN report on the AIDSVAX results on blacks/Africans.
- Contact trail subjects to know current status and learn from the process
- Possible new trails to be undertaken exclusively in Africa

"
http://su-etherpad.com/davidrose
"
correct pad: http://su-etherpad.com/event-Everything-you-think-you-know-is-wrong-by-David-Rose

"
http://su-etherpad.com/music
"Jamming at GSP10
Tonight (Friday)! and every following Thursday, at 9pm in 583C.

I (davidad) have a ukelele, slide whistle, Kaossilator, and clarinet. I'm not very good at playing any of these things (but I'm okay in the context of a large group). I'm better at piano and singing. If anyone knows where a piano is, or any room that would be particularly suited as a music room, let us know!

ALSO: if anybody has good speakers, it would really help out Mike Chen and I, because we have some \"digital instruments\" and speakers are a must.

In terms of structure, what I'm interested in is an essentially unstructured environment: someone just starts playing or singing something repetitive and other people join in as they get the pattern, and drop out when they get bored.

Would love to join any/all events!
:) ~ Marie-Clare Treseder (only conflict is tonight's BBQ) Also I primarily sing, improv on piano, and I doubt there are any rogue cellos around, so I'll probably just be able to proffer voice...

What about Karaoke?
Does anyone have a karaoke machine (or a software solution?) I can provide a microphone with a 3.5mm or 1/4\" plug as output, but we are also looking for a good pair of speakers for other purposes (that's not built-in to a laptop).

"
http://su-etherpad.com/initials
"Key to INITIALS (modify as needed)

AC Alexandru CELAC
AL Alison Lewis
AM Alaeddine Mokri
BAB Bryan Bishop
BB Bill Bing
BG Bryce Goodman
BK Brad Kohlenberg
CA Carlos Azevedo
CB Candice Berezan
CD Connor Dickie
CG Chiara Giovenzana
CO Claudia Olsson
CT Chiara Turelli
DC Dhaval Chadha
DD David Dalrymple (davidad)
DH David Hutchison
DJ Derek Jacoby
DR David Roberts
DT Dmitriy Tseliakhovich
DW David Wyler
EA Emem Andrew
LB/EB Elizabeth (Lizzie) Brook
EB Emma Brooke
EE Eric Ezechieli
EK Emiliano Kargieman
EL Erez Livneh
EL Everson Lopes
ER Eugenie Rives
FG Francesco Galietti
FT Fabio Teixeira
GG Gary Gautier
HA Hind Ahmed
JD Jason Dunn
JG John Graves
JJ Jorge Juan Fern\u00e1ndez Garc\u00eda
JL JC Lopez
JM Javier Mares
JM Juan Martinez-Barea
JP Justin Pahara
JV Julio Valdivia
JW Julielynn Wong
KS Kausar N. Samli
KZ Kidist Zeleke
LE Luca Escoffier
MA Miguel Angel Luengo-Oroz
MB Marko Bitenc
MK Matt Kern
MN Mercy Njima
RA Ronen Amit
RC Homan (Rosa) Chan
RD Robert Denning
RH Rand Hindi
RR Raycho Raychev
SB Santiago Bilinkis
SC Steve Cronin
SG Sasha Grujicic
SJ Sarah Jane Pell
SK San Ko
SN Sharon Niv
ST Sam Thorp
TA Teguest ASHENAFFI
TK Tyler Kratz
TL Tony Lyu
VD Vincent Daranyi
YS Yara Shaban
ZJ Zain Jaffer

"
http://su-etherpad.com/nup
"
Welcome to EtherPad!

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"
http://su-etherpad.com/A6FvMcEiYB
"Space based businesses:

Hey guys lets think of various space related business oportunities that we can spin out of the SU. 

"
http://su-etherpad.com/challenges-from-peter
"
"
http://su-etherpad.com/Eric-20Unconference-20talk
"Unconference talk Eric Ezechieli

Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development 

A framework to think about our team projects.

Relevant website:
http://www.realchange.nu/framework-strategic-sustainable-development-fssd

What is your biggest problem when deciding?
=> Finding out what the problem is about, narrowing it down.
Eric: Lack of Clarity
How is it we are so smart as individuals, but as a group we are creating adverse conditions?
Karl. Heinrich Robert gathered a multidisciplinary group to answer the question:
How can we find a common language to think of grand challenges?
http://www.ashoka.org/karl_henrik_robert

Result: An open framework anyone can use.
His goal was to address sustainability so we can think of problems today and not tomorrow when it might be too late.
1989, it reached all people in Sweden with this concept.

Funnel analogy:
Two horizontal convex lines that resemble a funnel / lens, resource supply being represented by the upper, demand by the lower line. 
http://www.naturalstep.org/en/natural-step-funnel

The evolution of resource demand and supply is characterized by two curves that approach another over time. By using normal forecasting, one would run into shifting constraints.
Reason: If the trend is part of the problem, you are extrapolation the problem along.
One should think about integrating backcasting with forecasting.
With backcasting, you take the goal in the future and try to get closer to the success you want to achieve. 

The Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development is thus comprised of five specific levels:

1. The Systems level.
2. The Purpose level.
3. The Strategic level.
4. The Actions level.
5. The Tools level.

Companies that use this framework:
1. Nike for product design, use backcastiing.
2. Interface model for sustainable society
3. Lantmaennen, 
4. Swedish government used the framework for the entire country, to make the country an oil-free country.
5. Walmart
6. Whistler, Canada 2020
7. 25% of Swedish municipalities http://www.sekom.nu/
8. Dozen others: http://www.naturalstep.org/en/current_projects_all
Could accelerate innovation.
Not sure what nanotech and biotech will do to this model

Q&A:
What do you do if the core-product like coca cola is harmful to society?
This model was designed to be absolutely neutral. It is not judgmental about products. E.g. Coca cola has committed to be close \u2013 loop for their packaging.

How do make leaders adopt this approach?
In Sweden they adopted the approach 20 years ago, it is often a matter of timing. 
Today, the climate is right for this in other areas.

How should we proceed using this model when doing our projects at SU?
Looking for a more systemic approach.
Looking what system dynamics are.
Talking about why, then what then how.
Entire cities: 
Start with awareness,
then vision, then fill step by step within the process.

Does it move in the right direction?
Is it a flexible platform?
Is it a good return on investment?
http://www.naturalstep.org/en/abcd-process

Similar to stage-gated implementation?
Yes, Lighthouse/torch analogy.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Jun29-FEE-Romer-es
"Martes
6/29/2010
19:30
Paul Romer

Pleno: FEE Econom\u00eda Global: Normas de Tecnolog\u00eda, y la puesta en marcha Din\u00e1mica
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Romer
\"Una crisis es una cosa terrible de desperdiciar.\"
\"Las posibilidades no tienen sentido. Se multiplican\"
http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/EconomicGrowth.html

http://www.stanford.edu/~promer/
http://www.chartercities.org/
The Politically Incorrect Guide to Ending Poverty
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/07/the-politically-incorrect-guide-to-ending-poverty/8134/

Presentaci\u00f3n de diapositivas: [Jon Badal]
Todas nuestras ideas preguntas: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10romer

\x3cnotes inicio aqu\u00ed>

[Final] de la presentaci\u00f3n
Todas nuestras ideas crowdsourced preguntas: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10romer
Por favor, tome 2 minutos para votar por las sugerencias.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Jul2-Adrienne-Briggs-GSP09
"Computer says: 
Welcome to our University.
We hope we can help you futher Arab education.
8:21
Dan: Tell why you are here.
From entertainment background.
Hired by Abu Dhabi government to bring film industry.
For first two years working to bridge the two cultures.
Government agency.
And working on our own.

Not that many Arabic content that is culturally appropriate.
Majority of kids will watch Barney with Lebanese.
Westerners teaching Arab children Western ways.
If you learn, \"Hey\" for saying hello, that is different from

Bashasha - my favorite racing camel.
Mid-East equivalent of Barney.

Kids liked Dorra the Explorer, or Hannah Montana.
Kids say, \"Oh, I love her, but she's not Muslim\"
Shamalshaza - Shama the Great
Behouin tough character - with things that are culturally appropriate.

For younger kids, Baby Einstein.
Red circle - holding red bowl to give water to a camel.
Different things like that.
Make things that creatively push the boundaries.

Many iPhone apps. Not any good Arabic learning tools.
Parents have iPhone. Will give the kid the iPhone to play games if they are somewhere.

Guys got bored with iPads. Could be another educational tool for them.
Want to build apps.
Producing TV show.
Don't have a lot of innovate ways to take it into get into classrooms.
TeacherMate - only $15. Like a teacher's best friend. The kids think they are games. 
But they are learning.
They think they are playing video games.

AD Cultural Heritage. 
Camels
Falcons
Premier at hunting expo.

Put together what ideas to have. 
This is present day.
Ideas to leapfrog. Build something out.

What do you do?

Q: Is your concern the language or the content.
I know iPhone apps. Ways to meld content, a platform that all works.

Intro to Open Allure.
Yara: From Jordon.
Addicted to Majit.

AB: Bought

Yara: Americans don't relate to camels. 
AB: Too bedhouin.
Yara: Addicted to Japanese characters. 
Video games - with Arabic characters, comic books.
Not like Persians.
Not sand and castles and women and stuff.
Can't take good quality away.
Kept buying Majit until I was 25.

AB: Down in?
Yara: 2008.
All of the children were addicted.
AB2: Me too.
Yara: Series of fairy tales. 
Police investigation.
Written from Arabic - people would learn vocab, sentences.
Lebanese, Egyptian sentences.
Kids do not know syntax.
We are better writers than our sisters and brothers for having heard.
It is like, day-to-day vocabulary.
What happened to good Arab writers?
Do an initiation like, content - games, puzzles, word crosses. Find good content first.
We don't read books in Arab world.

Haven't seen a single new book.
AB: Great to hear all those comments.
We have a strong team.

Yara: Have you tested it?
AB: Not yet, but we have a lot of teachers, Kindergarten.
Yara: My mom would sit and watch the shows.
If content is appealing also to adults, then good content.
Harry Potter.
AB: Ones that sell the best are the ones least irritating to the parents.

Eric: From Italy. Work with Swedish org. Natural Step. 20 years ago, massive program
under patronage of king.
From schools to municipalities.
Masters from Stanford.
Which ones work from across the globe.

If Abu Dhabi is interested in innovative stuff, I'm interested.

Zain: 20 start ups so far. 
Currently run. Sell DVDs to do that.
Approach is similar to you guys.
[Demo of video]
They will create localized content.
Create with person from the local market.

Kausar: Grew up in Saudi Arabia. on Iftah Hail Simson? (like Sesame Street)
Went to Arabic and an American school. Context went more and more Western.
I didn't speak English as a kid.
When I had to choose and school started to shift, I shifted to Sesame Street.
That show particularly did not connect. Sesame Street was more relevant, having 
shifted to American school.
Spent up through my high school years in Saudi. Visited Abu Dhabi.
Not sure can provide in a technical sense.
How to go about reaching out.
How to reach out to children. Show them the impact of education.

Claudia: Sweden. Working in emerging markets. Not necessarily in education. Was working
in ... Center for Excellence. Emerging Market solutions.
Could be an interesting contact for you. IT solutions for education.

Candice: From Canada. Education at University level. Space I am working in. Quite far from
this particular application.

Saleem: Two concerns.
I like traditions, but once you go to the mosque? 
Do you think this is a threat.

AB: Especially after working at the cultural foundation. I'm American. Fell in love
with culture.
People in their 30s.
Guy from IDEO was hired to come up with incentive plan for Bahrain to
get people, not incentivized, to give back to society.
Driving incentive plan to bring back culture.
Education will help some.
The camel is a character like Barney is a dinosaur.
Cultural component, but also manners and mores.
Programs in English, Arabic and French.
In Levant, much more contact with West.
In Gulf, want to preserve.

Kauser: Area I've worked with in the past.
Domestic and international with respect to science and technology.
U of Georgia PhD.

Saleem:
AB: We started foundation to bridge the worlds.
Abadi Foundation - change world's perspective.
Jim Jenoff
Paula Wagner
Tom Cruise?
Lot of high level people.
One example I use. 
Last summer Wolverine came out.
At Mann Theatre in LA.
Just happened I had met guy from Nigeria.
In the movie, there are clouds and you end up in capital of Nigeria.
When they leave elevator, they kill everyone.
Diamond dealer at end at desk.
Where did you get diamond?
Then they kill him.
Cut to them in the jungle. Scantilly clad.

Jim told us how many changes after film was made as producer.
He changed things to make better.
20 million people will watch this film and think Nigeria is diamond dealers or people 
wearing no clothes.
20 second shot could have shown nice neighborhood. Show people there is something
more there.
Create characters in film and TV. 
Tons of writers, but we write about what we know.
To have to research, what does a Lebanese wedding look like?
MOST - Muslims On Screen and Television.
Give writers the resource.
Exchange program.
One thing I found - you can make a difference person by person.
Chairman of Fox: Sex in the City.
I know why it came out and why it fell apart.
With decisionmakers - would never let something like that come out of Fox.
Open Your Eyes to Arabia.
TV shows - rewritten history to show ideas came from Middle East.
All kinds of amazing discoveries like that.

Saleem: Makes me really happy.
Tagist: To create Arabic educational programming that is culturally appropriate.
AB: I can create TV shows.
Animated series and all that.
iPhone apps, video games.

Tigist: No issue with the way education is?
AB: What I'm looking for is ways to use technology to make the education system an interactive
learning experience.
Tigest: I live in Paris. Ethiopian. Studied and lived on 3 continents.
We're starting from zero. We'll live in a different world.
Next step will be media.

Claudia: Alice for programming.
Yara: Randy Pausch
http://www.alice.org/index.php?page=what_is_alice/what_is_alice
AB: A gift from CMU

Addictive Learning.

Yara: the ball you can squeeze it.
Teacher can program it - a talking ball.
Strawberry fruit.
Continue the sentence.
Who invented this or that.
If student answered correctly, throw ball to someone else.

AB: I think Dan would like to create that AI.
Where German?

Yara: 
Claudia: Word assistant.
iPhone app of that.
Tigest: Game to play anywhere.
AB: Like you were saying - iPhone or TeacherMate.
Sheik Mohamed built 5 star refugee camp for 10,000 people.
The one that Abu Dhabi built - each family had huge tent.
Sewer system. Street lights. in 21 days.
Literaly in area surrounded by kids with 
Serve 21,000 meals per day - chicken, fresh bread.

Caludia: UN?
AB: Very disappointing. 19 AID orgs Oxfam, Doctors without Borders. Took them much longer.
Lack of food.
Trying to take in all these people.
For these kids, a school environment. Put on teacherMate to make it less expensive for lower
income countries.
Tigest: what is the foundation of it? Like TV?
AB: Lot of different programs.
Kauser: already building content - providing through multiple sources.
Multiple sofware/hardware technologies to get content out.

When you said you were looking for people toactually develop - that can be farmed out.
AB: We'd like to hire a tech manager. Lot we can farm out. MIT has programmers working in Dhubai now.
Love to get any ideas to sort of bring together.
Kauser: Start a company in Georgia - building platform. Do you have a card?
AB: Anyone individually?

Just talking in Palo Alto. A private school. Bought iPads for all the kids. Apps will be 
ready by end of the year.

Tigest: Use iPad - idea to use it. Everyone tech savvy.
Use it to keep tradition. Story telling. Written language too. All on the board outside.
Basically, if not Abu Dhabi. A place where people had text.
Record. No video yet, but a lot of recording.
Kauser: Thank you. Nice to meet you.
Claudia: will e-mail
Candice: will e-mail

9:29
Call from Jessica.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/sandbox
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http://su-etherpad.com/bnames
"X = Building (for laundry), Hall (for 20), House (for 583B), Complex (for 3), Center (for 583C)

Women in science:
Ada Lovelace X, Marie Curie X, Rosalind Franklin X, Emmy Noether X, Lisa Meitner X

People who describe the progress of science:
Karl Popper X, Thomas Kuhn X, Paul Feyerabend X, Carl Gustav Hempel X, Ockham X

Unappreciated genius:
Nikola Tesla X, Rosalind Franklin X, Charles Babbage X, Buckminster Fuller X, Philo Farnsworth X

Great humanitarians:
Mohamed Yunus X, Nelson Mandela X, Mohandas Ghandi X, Dalai Lama X, Martin Luther King, Jr. X

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Jul7-Life-Science-Lab
"
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http://su-etherpad.com/Jun29-Vecoy
"Vecoy Meeting 1 - Brainstorming Meeting
Virus Decoy Project
Tuesday 
6/29/2010
10pm

Concept: competitive inhibition of virus replication through higher number of receptors, multiple viruses can enter same liposome

Brainstorm
1. Use people in late stage HIV because of high viral load
2. Use on Ebola, low incubation, high virulence, could get defense budget
3. Use previously researched and used liposomes to move the approval process faster
4. Outsource the product not the idea
5. Used in combination with cocktail and healthy immune system could be the nail in the coffin for the virus
6. Keep in mind the liposomes you use so that they don't form with other cells and use enzymes that degrades the RNA in the liposome
7. Outsource the R&D to a research lab, talk to Daniel Kraft
8. Dormancy of virus is an issue
9. Go to Obama administration for research grant
10. Will the markers on the decoy attract other things that are beneficial for the body as well? 
Answer: Nothing is trapped for good, bounces, if something did somehow enter into the liposome the liposome degrades after a while
11. Could you use a supplement instead of FDA? Not sure, probably not
12. The fake CD4 receptors could be messing with the immune system
13. Contact Gates foundation/Clinton foundation
14. Create an X-prize
15. Pull in experts to verify technology, add clout, get credibility to leverage in grants/proposals etc.
16. In vitro testing then in vivo testing
17. Clinical goal of monotherapy in developing world

Group & Goals
1. Review state of the art: http://goo.gl/7i9y
2. AVOID GROUPTHINK, ask for dissenting perspectives
2. Researching all the foundations/groups that could possibly finance this.
3. Writing the proposal paper/presentation that will be sent to foundations
2.1 Answer the questions that come up in these meetings in the presentation of the idea
4. PR - Send paper/presentation to experts to add clout/credibility/validation to proposal
5. Price out research costs
5.1 How much do we need?
5.2 When do we need it? Timetable

Homework for next meeting:
Tigist - Group 1: Find Foundations
EK, Bill, Javier, Erez, Alex - Group 2: Get together and write out the paper/adjust the presentation
Carlos, EK, Spain, David, Brad - Group 3: Contacting your connections in various countries and organizations
Diva - Group 4: What viruses are good targets?Also virus loads, CD4 counts and clinically possible lyposome load in the bloodstream, liposomy half life
Jan - Group 4: Research the existing German patent
Brad - Misc.: handle notes
Everyone Else - spread the word

Next Meeting is in Two Days (Thurs. July 1st, 2010)

Seiradake E, Henaff D, Wodrich H, Billet O, Perreau M, Hippert C, Mennechet F, Schoehn G, Lortat-Jacob H, Dreja H, Ibanes S, Kalatzis V, Wang JP, Finberg RW, Cusack S, Kremer EJ. The Cell Adhesion Molecule \"CAR\" and Sialic Acid on Human Erythrocytes Influence Adenovirus In Vivo Biodistribution. PLoS Pathog. 2009 Jan;5(1).

Wiki page: https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/student-discussion-pages/vecoy

SUN discussion on potentially previous and similar tech: http://singularityu.org/network/mod/groups/topicposts.php?topic=7497&group_guid=7487/

HIV infects liver (co-infection of HIV and HCV is a huge problem):
http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/fulltext/119416582/PDFSTART 

CXCR4 is fundamental for the hematopoietic niche:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CXCR4

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Collected-Links
"Sorted list of links from all other pads

--can generate a vacuum through mechanical means, ie. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpEG0ATylzo
- Catalog of molecular parts (Goodsell, http://www.pdb.org/pdb/home/home.do)
- Example electrostatic actuated devices http://www.dlp.com
- GE Plastics Color formulation tool (http://www.allbusiness.com/technology/computer-software-programming/1102684-1.html)
- http://virtual.itg.uiuc.edu/training/AFM_tutorial
- Prediction of Future http://www.entelos.com/index.php
-example: mapping the Earth quicker, faster... can even be applied to archaeology: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/11/science/11maya.html
-fungus - molds, etc. these are generally oxygen-dependent processes (ie: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128061773 )
-http://www.coventor.com/coventorware.html
-nutrient loss - this is primarily a function of age and heat because vitamins are often not the most stable molecules (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050323124809.htm)
( http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul7-BB )
(AZ: Biotech Hall of Fame: http://www.chemheritage.org/exhibits/biotech/zaffaroni.html)
(biography is on https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/tp-4-recycling/june-23-speakers)
(copy at https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B3BeYKoQJeyQNTI2YjVlODUtNTNlNi00OTk3LWE0ZWEtYmM1MmUyMjE3NzMw&hl=en )
(copy in Google docs: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/present/edit?id=0AXBeYKoQJeyQZGRxMjJnNWpfMjhoczg4dndkag&hl=en )
(diagram of Tunguska impact zone compared to the size of New York City: http://astro.wsu.edu/worthey/astro/html/im-meteor/tunguska.html)
(FDA Letter to Pathway: http://www.fda.gov/MedicalDevices/ResourcesforYou/Industry/ucm211866.htm)
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Francis)
(http://www.affymetrix.com, Perlegen Sciences, www.appliedbiosystems.com)
(like http://www.cooperhandtools.com/brands/CF_Files/model_detail.cfm?upc=037103222060 but in plastic)
(overview article: http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090206/full/news.2009.86.html)
(patent: 7,335,474: http://www.patentstorm.us/patents/7335474/claims.html)
(see 2006 interview genetic ethics: http://bioethics.georgetown.edu/pcbe/transcripts/nov06/session4.html)
(see CAD Nano http://cadnano.org/)
(see http://research4.dfci.harvard.edu/shih/SHIH_LAB/Home.html)
(shouts: 9!) [linear thinking...]http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jun25-Team-Project-Introductions
* Sergey Brins data mining approach- see Wired: http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/06/ff_sergeys_search/all/1 a way of attacking the problem.
*Brother is Director of Old Town School of Folk Music (http://oldtownschool.org/) in Chicago, IL with many connections to performing artists who might be willing to contribute their names or music towards publicity.
*Classmate of Mike Nelson (http://www.asis.org/Chapters/asispvc/michaelnelsonbio.html) at Caltech, former advisor to Al Gore. Policy wonk.
*DIY Lantern https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/tp-3-home-energy/tp-energy-discussion-wiki/diy-lantern
*I know how to make VIDEOS http://video214.com/play/C42jXqjbADu5wgyI1xE4zg/s/dark
*I\\u2019m at Cornell, which is totally into energy so I have access to lots of professors who are interested in this, many of whom are listed here: http://www.geo.cornell.edu/eas/energy/alphabetical_list_college_o.html
*Know owner of Thermosash (http://www.thermosash.co.nz/) in Auckland, New Zealand: David Hayes. Thermosash makes commercial building facades out of glass and has particular expertise in solar flux.
*Sister is City Attorney for Providence, RI with many contacts in public sector, especially around brownfield development (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brownfield_land)
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphorus
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whuffie http://www.thewhuffiebank.org/]
[http://www.endpoverty2015.org/]
[http://www.xkcd.net/256/ - map of social networks]
[Marian's paper on Kalundberg: http://bit.ly/bOrUO6]
[Networking for Dummies Books: http://www.dummies.com/store/Computers-Internet/Networking.html]
[Networking for Dummies Libri:] http://www.dummies.com/store/Computers-Internet/Networking.html
[photo of mud hut] \\\"This is your customer.\\\" (other pics: http://tinyurl.com/muddhutt)
[recommended: http://www.wri.org/publication/the-next-4-billion]
[see quirky.com - http://www.quirky.com/]
\\\"A conversation with Don Francis\\\": http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LLxIJBrXdw
\\\"singularity is near\\\" - movie - http://www.singularity.com/themovie/index.php
\\\"what the bleep do we know\\\" - movie - http://www.whatthebleep.com/
1) Sahara Forest Project: http://saharaforestproject.com
1. Review state of the art: http://goo.gl/7i9y
10:17 Lori Giver (http://www.codexis.com/)
10:24Javier: Ref: http://bit.ly/9Yh0Nl
10:31matt kern: \\\"At today's prices, a relatively small metallic asteroid with a diameter of 1 mile contains more than $20 trillion US dollars worth of industrial and precious metals.[1] In fact, all the gold, cobalt, iron, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium and ruthenium that we now mine from the Earth's crust, and that are essential for our economic and technological development, came originally from the rain of asteroids that hit the Earth after the crust cooled\\\" fromhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining
10:42John Graves: Bios:https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/tp-1-space/grand-challenge-panel
10:52 Slides: http://bit.ly/bQzngX
100Billion Dollars Available from DOE (department of energy) http://www.eere.energy.gov/
11:27David Hutchison:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arabidopsis
12 Principles of Green Chemistry: http://www.epa.gov/gcc/pubs/principles.html
14. saving oil is cheaper than buying it (saving one barrel of oil costs less than 30$ https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B0MS_U4P-uk9MDJhYjBmY2YtYjcxMi00ZDhlLTliZmEtNDM2MThhZjAxOTkx&hl=en )
14:22John Graves: Interesting approach to reading/reviewing a book as a team:http://mbmsummary.blogspot.com/2005/11/summaries.html
14:46John Graves: OK. Ames has a golf course which is going to use reclaimed water:http://environment.arc.nasa.gov/articles/index.html
15:11Derek Jacoby: that's what was up! Everyone is over at: http://su-etherpad.com/tpspace-Jun28-Lewicki
15:21Claudia: http://www.peepoople.com/ (a cool solution from Viking land)
15:22Derek Jacoby: interesting igem project on arsenic detection a couple years ago...http://www.technologyreview.com/biomedicine/18103/?a=f
15:23Candice Berezan:http://parts.mit.edu/wiki/index.php/Arsenic_Biosensor
15:29John Graves:http://www.theonion.com/articles/los-angeles-to-siphon-water-from-minorities-bodies,915/
15:31Matt Kern:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanotechnology_in_water_treatment
15:40Eric Eze: defining water: see thishttp://www.nestle-waters.com/environment/PopupDistrib.html
15:48Matt Kern: article describing issues around filtering water and some related companies/solutionshttp://www.tahan.com/charlie/nanosociety/course201/nanos/SK.pdf
15:54Bill Bing: Came across a pretty interesting article on related subject matter by googling Kate Steel World Bank if anyone is interested:http://www.globalization.ac.nz/2010/03/10/how-food-and-water-are-driving-a-21st-century-african-land-grab/
16:26Candice Berezan: iGEM Hg project out of Australia: http://2009.igem.org/Team:UQ-Australia/Project
16:26John Graves: Liberty Science Center has good exhibit on Hudson River life:http://www.lsc.org/lsc/ourexperiences/exhibits/hudsonhome
16:27Sasha: OLED Wallpaper . . .http://bit.ly/bkuK4W
16:30Vincent: OLEDs are the future of light as they emit natural like light and no heat. fun application of OLED:http://www.ubergizmo.com/15/archives/2009/04/you_fade_to_light_interactive_display.html
17:03matt kern:http://www.hurricaneenergy.org/HurricaneEnergyReleaseVersion2I.pdf
17:14matt kern:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_storage
17:35David Hutchison:http://www.nawc.org/resources/documents/pdf/price-cost-value_brochure.pdf
17:36Dmitriy: http://www.alphabetenergy.com/this company came out of the Lawrence Berkeley Lab
17:39David Roberts: Toshiba's reactorhttp://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news-toshiba-micro-nuclear-12.17b.html
17:46Vincent: there are no pictures though:https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/gsp10/photos
2) John Liu massive reforestation in arid China Areas (the size of belgium): http://blog.earthshope.org/category/lessons-of-the-loess-plateau/
2. in terms of funding - maybe another way to look at space would be the huge potential closed-loop systems from space reseach could have to tackle the urbanization problems on earth. The numbers show that within the next decades, about 80% of people will live in cities, many of them will evolve in the developing world. Thus people sit down to think about how to build IT-based, more efficient smarter cities/environments from scratch.Lot's of AI, sensor networks, embedded systems, sentient infrastructures, cognitive infrastructures, and so forth needed. As Steve showed, Nasa is already doing a bit of work in terms of sentient buildings (http://www.nasa.gov/centers/ames/greenspace/sustainability-base.html ), but I think one could do a lot more. If the Space track group decides to go into the direction of how to devlop extraterrestial colonies/stations, maybe we could think more about synergies between this research and problems in the developmental scenario.
2/ Etherpad for marathon: http://su-etherpad.com/sfmarathon
3D printing food is not far off. http://www.firstscience.com/home/articles/technology/futuristic-food_1734.html
7. 25% of Swedish municipalities http://www.sekom.nu/
8. Dozen others: http://www.naturalstep.org/en/current_projects_all
9:46David Hutchison:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_tractor
9:52Santiago: Rusty Schweickart was born in Neptune! And it is not a joke!http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rusty_Schweickart
9:55Carlos: Hey guy, check this out: Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment of Global Risks: http://yudkowsky.net/rational/cognitive-biases, by Eliezer S. Yudkowsky, Research Fellow - Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence. Worth reading.
A: One thing is we need cheap launch. One of the things I have been pushing is beam power. One of the biggest markets I'm excited about is asteroid mining. One concept I'm interested in is \\\"One planet living.\\\" (http://www.oneplanetliving.org/index.html) Today the population of earth uses 30% more resources than are available to us. If everyone on the planet wanted to live at the standards of North America, we'd need five planets' worth of resources. But that's a myopic view, we are not limited to the resources on earth. Earth is a crumb in a supermarket filled with resources. I think about the creation of those resources that will drive us.
A: Situation in Nigeria similar to other dev'ping countries. Invest in water (Example: Manila,http://www.manilawater.com/) What can society do to prioritize this issue? Ask for money? How do you spend money? Infrastructure? Environmental? Indigenous lobbying
A: The reason people are spending hours a day on these sites is because people are feeling real connections there. BLOGher (http://www.blogher.com/conferences), get females together to talk about problems. I went to first one of those, amazing emotiona
Academic profile: http://mba.yale.edu/faculty/profiles/chertow.shtml
Again: discussioned logged at http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul2-NT-discussion
Alex Pedilla, California State Senator, SB482 Personal Genome Tests http://info.sen.ca.gov/cgi-bin/postquery?bill_number=sb_482&sess=CUR&house=B&site=sen
Alison cutting: http://picasaweb.google.com/singularityu/TechShop#5489810095626430018
All Our Ideas crowdsourced questions: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10bb1
All Our Ideas crowdsourced questions: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10ncscl1
All Our Ideas crowdsourced questions: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10ncscl1
All Our Ideas crowdsourced questions: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10ncscore
All Our Ideas crowdsourced questions: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10romer
All Our Ideas questions: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10romer
All Our Ideas: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10bb1
All Our Ideas: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10fee29jun
All Our Ideas: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10ncscl3
All Our Ideas: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10ncscl3
All Our Ideas: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10ncscore
Alternatively, http://su-etherpad.com/music
another decent one: http://blog.junglin.com/my-homemade-aerogrow-system/
Another Moore's Law out there - Jaguar http://www.nccs.gov/jaguar/
Anyone do gel http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrophoresis.
Aprotech and others. http://www.aprotechcorp.com/
Arsenic Biosensor:http://parts.mit.edu/wiki/index.php/Arsenic_Biosensor
Article: http://www.contentnejmorg.zuom.info/cgi/content/full/361/23/2209
Astro-preneur (Elon Musk): Iconic picture: http://www.urbanchristiannews.com/ucn/16nasa_CA0-popup.jpg (Obama behind Musk)
bernoulli's priciple: understanding is responsible for aviation - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli's_principle
best known energy company: http://www.interfaceflor.com/. changed from making carpets to becoming a new model for energy effecient floor covering.
best, easiest design I've found so far: http://strainreview.com/cheap-and-easy-diy-aeroponics-less-than-30-mins/
Biography: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Kamkwamba
Biography: http://newspace2009.spacefrontier.org/speakers.php?id=93
Biography: http://poet.mit.edu/people/students.htm#steel
Biography: http://www.biota.org/ostman/sfsuchrl.htm
Biography: http://www.saulgriffith.com/shortbio.html
Biography: http://www.well.com/~rs/rls-bio.html
Board of Directors for Redwood Neuroscience Institute: http://www.rni.org/directors.html
Bogo light. Manufactured, $10. Many more can afford. http://www.bogolight.com/
Book referenced: http://www.amazon.com/Free-Future-Radical-Chris-Anderson/dp/1401322905
California: http://www.calrecycle.ca.gov/wastechar/
Cataract surgeons have the highest amount of catecholamines in their urine, because it's a fast surgery (stress hormone - https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Catecholamine)
Chamber managed remotely by tele-presence and tele-robotics. http://ag.arizona.edu/ceac
Chris deCharms TED Talk:http://www.omneuron.com/technology2.htm
claudia: another partnership. think global school. social justice. india, africa, south america -- live in this area. use high school students as mentors. http://www.thinkglobalschool.org/
claudia: they are not always \\\"there.\\\" poor settings. they DO have to show interest in the program. See http://www2.goldmansachs.com/citizenship/10000women/index.html for more info.
Clean Tech Revolution on Amazon: http://amzn.to/dr40ZA
Composting:http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88163285
correct pad: http://su-etherpad.com/event-Everything-you-think-you-know-is-wrong-by-David-Rose
Cosmic calendar, compresses the entire history of the universe into one cosmic year - http://www.presentationzen.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/12/04/cosmic_cal_dec.jpg
Could grow arabidopsis: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arabidopsis to demonstrate/test plant growth on Mars
Cumulative Etherpad document: https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/pads/home/week2/pads.html?attredirects=0&d=1
Currently, there are several efforts to use cell-phone user data in developing countries to analyze human and nonhuman behavior. E.g. http://ai-d.org/ .
Dayton Hudson (now Target: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dayton_Hudson), also says, \\\"discount retailing will be big\\\" Don't hire anyone from existing stores. Pick own locations/stores. Then, we'll see what happens. Perfects model, it is the wave of the future.
decent commercial system: http://www.biocontrols.com/aero6.HTM
Defining Water:http://www.nestle-waters.com/environment/PopupDistrib.html
DES http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_Encryption_Standard
Design for Environment (DFE) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Design_for_Environment
Diagnosed herself with http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemochromatosis, a disease her father had.
Diagram shown: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/stats/images/web_total.png
Discussion results can be logged here: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul2-NT-discussion
DNA nexus model [https://dnanexus.com/]
Do we have a better take than SETI? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SETI
EFF http://www.eff.org/
Enable creation of a for profit Solar Electric Light Company (SELCO) now has installed over 100,000 systems. (http://www.selco-india.com/)
Energy Recycling:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_recycling
Eric Eze: backcasting 2: http://www.thenaturalstep.org/the-system-conditions
Eric Eze: Backcasting: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backcasting
Eriksson et al., \\\"Web-Based, Participant-Driven Studies Yield Novel Genetic Associations for Common Traits\\\"PLoS Genet 6(6) http://www.plosgenetics.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pgen.1000993
Etherpad for SU Ideas: http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-energy
Etherpad for SU ideas: http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-food
Etherpad for SU ideas: http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-space
Etherpad for SU ideas: http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-water
Etherpad to collect SU ideas: http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-upcycle
Every year http://www.techawards.org
Example of cells being applied with a catheter (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catheter)
Example SSL Search - Google https://www.google.com
excellent discussion paper on aquaponics: http://www.ca.uky.edu/wkrec/454fs.PDF
Existing group (21 members): https://groups.google.com/a/singularityu.org/group/space-tp
Existing pad: http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-energy
Existing pad: http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-food
Existing pad: http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-space
Existing Pad: http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-upcycle
Existing pad: http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-water
Existing Solar thermal facility in SoCal: http://www.esolar.com/
Food waste: see, for example, http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.Print.asp?DocumentID=591&ArticleID=6237&l=en
For pronunciation: http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/electrophoresis
Forbes Article - http://www.forbes.com/leadership/claytonchristensen/
Forum For the Future:http://www.forumforthefuture.org/
FYI: http://spacejournal.ohio.edu/issue16/lofstrom.html ~davidad
G: Question is, RF applications? Look up sitime http://www.sitime.com/
Geo medicine - how your environment affects your health http://www.esri.com/industries/health/geomedicine/index.html
GEOChat( http://geochat.instedd.org/) - communicate
Germany: http://www.lanuv.nrw.de/englisch/abfall/abfallbewert.html
Getting big enough chohrt. P Obtaining consent under the structures of the Declaration of Helsinki \\\"Ethical Principles for Medical Research Involving Human Subjects\\\" http://ohsr.od.nih.gov/guidelines/helsinki.html)
Google Group: https://groups.google.com/a/singularityu.org/group/energy
Google group: https://groups.google.com/a/singularityu.org/group/food
Google group: https://groups.google.com/a/singularityu.org/group/space
Google group: https://groups.google.com/a/singularityu.org/group/upcycle
Google group: https://groups.google.com/a/singularityu.org/group/water
Graph being shown: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/stats/images/nea_size_bins.png
Great start to a sensor network: http://paper.ijcsns.org/07_book/200903/20090332.pdf
Gregg Maryniak Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/present/view?id=0AXsPlav9xIzoZGZycWc3a2pfMGM3Mzd0Y2Nk&hl=en
Grow more yourself http://bit.ly/diybio-squid
GSP10 Best of the Wire / Word of the Day: http://bit.ly/GSP10wotd
GSP10 Calendar: http://bit.ly/GSP10cal
GSP10 Social Network Coordinates spreadsheet: http://bit.ly/GSP10SocialNetwork
GSP10 Tennis ladder link: http://bit.ly/blqFr7
His TED talk also looks to cover much of the same ground: http://www.ted.com/talks/saul_griffith_on_kites_as_the_future_of_renewable_energy.html
http://davidbolinsky.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azurix
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Ewing_Duncan
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deng_Xiaoping
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_double-layer_capacitor
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proteome
http://experimentalman.com/
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/02/18/60minutes/main6221135.shtml ]
http://www.china.org.cn/english/China/98308.htm
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/ames/greenspace/sustainability-base.html
http://www.smarthealthcare.com/h1n1-swine-flu-epidemiology-20may09 ]
http://www.ted.com/talks/david_bolinsky_animates_a_cell.html
http://www.tsgc.utexas.edu/tadp/1996/general/maryniak.html
I try not to get people to follow me. You have to find me. Yet 1500 people following me. (http://twitter.com/davidsrose)
IBM developing sequoia super computer - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Sequoia
IBM Moves Closer To Creating Computer Based on Insights From The Brain (\\\"cat-scale cortical simulation\\\")- http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/28842.wss / Dharmendra Modha (http://modha.org/)
If we have longer (80 years or so) to react, we can use a gravity tractor which is more predictable. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_tractor
Image being shown: http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/files/2007/tunguska_sim.jpg. 200-300X the size of the Hiroshima explosion.
Incineration of materials; example: composting: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compost
Innovate work at Omneron? http://Omneuron.com
Interesting igem project on arsenic detection a couple years ago...http://www.technologyreview.com/biomedicine/18103/?a=f
interesting similar design, but nicer looking! http://www.rollitup.org/hydroponics-aeroponics/90747-my-first-aeroponic-design.html
Interesting statistics: http://www.zerowasteamerica.org/Statistics.htm
interesting supplier of aquaponics systems: https://www.aquaponics.com/contact/
International Source Book on Environmentally Sound Technologies for Municipal Solid Waste Management http://www.unep.or.jp/Ietc/estdir/pub/msw/
jill Tarter TED Talk: http://www.tedprize.org/jill-tarter/
Jim: Solexant. http://www.solexant.com/
Justin: Check: https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/student-discussion-pages/human-waste
Konarka - Clothing that is a solar collector. Tents. - http://www.konarka.com/
LavaAmp (http://www.lava-amp.com/) different from other PCR- normally you keep liquid in a single place.
Like anything else, only guy on TV was Fred Sanford. https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Sanford_and_Son
Link to Next Talk-- Rose, FEE: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun30-FEE
Linkedin: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marian_Chertow
Linkedin: http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenzornetzer
Linkedin: http://www.linkedin.com/pub/charles-ostman/0/16b/964
Linkedin: http://www.linkedin.com/pub/saul-griffith/0/71a/17
Long Term: Asteroid mining (massive opportunity: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining)
Look up Garbage Barge (http://www.jconoverjr.com/g-barge.htm)
Main Etherpad: http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jun23-Global-Grand-Challenge
McKenzie's view (http://www.nawc.org/resources/documents/pdf/price-cost-value_brochure.pdf) - in USA paying ~\\x3c40% than what we should be paying - poorer are paying much more than they should, 2x on either side. The rich is paying much less than they should be paying while the poor is paying much more than they should.
Mentioned the Tacoma Narrows bridge collapse http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXyG68_caV4
Millenium Development Goals access to enegry not included - http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/
Moore's Law http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moores_law
most well known for his low cost eyeglass manufacture technique... neat! http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2002/eyeglasses.html
Nanobusiness Alliance. http://www.nanobusiness.org/
nanofactory - MUST SEE! - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqyZ9bFl_qg
NASA Hyperwall http://www.nas.nasa.gov/Groups/VisTech/hyperwall/
Neuroinformatics:http://www.neuroinformatics2010.org/speakers/yukiyasu-kamitani
New device, Philips DirectLife [http://www.directlife.philips.com/] sensewear http://www.sensewear.com/ bodymedia http://www.bodymedia.com/
NEXT TOPIC: PERSONAL ANXIETIES: Alison (from https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/Doc?docid=0Ad6mMT3KY0RIZGRwOTYzMzNfMmNrZ3E5OHhx&hl=en)
Not a bad idea, but the hose has problems: http://www.jasons-indoor-guide-to-organic-and-hydroponics-gardening.com/homemade-aeroponics-system-2.html
NOTE: There is competion from 65 guys@MIT on this project! Who? Do they have a team name we can google? Will have to ask Dr. Dickson. he just mentioned it in passing. OK I thought you might have inside info. I spoke to him about it last night. The person he's referencing is Herbert Einstein http://cee.mit.edu/einstein but I cannot find any references - besides another interview with Despommier - to his 65-man team or to work he's doing on vertical farming.
Notes were just put at the end of the http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun29-NCS-CL1 pad.
now regulators are tryign to align global economy's interest with the bank. youtube: the crisis of credit visualized. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oosq3TPgHH0
on Amazon: http://amzn.to/9lIBnA
On genetic defense in court: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128043329
On SUN: http://singularityu.org/network/pg/groups/forum/7396
only humans have a substantially large neocortex - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neocortex
Open Allure: http://groups.google.com/group/open-allure-ds and http://code.google.com/p/open-allure-ds/
Open source OpenCog [http://opencog.org/]
Or prezi site: http://prezi.com/zd2ibyqy2jik/digitial-biology-biology-under-moores-law/
Other thing to show you real quick: microbial fuel cell (http://www.microbialfuelcell.org/www/). Just scoop up soil, put it into one of these guys, wait 5 days and it generates 5 microAmps of current. You can measure that.
Pad: http://su-etherpad.com/Jul3-Techshop
PCR: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymerase_Chain_Reaction
PDF: http://www.spirulinasource.com/PDF.cfm/EarthFoodSpirulina.pdf
Photos posted to http://picasaweb.google.com/singularityu/TechShop#
Picasa: http://picasaweb.google.com/singularityu/TechShop#
Presentation slides: http://www.templetons.com/slides/singu-intro.ppt
PRIOR AIR Etherpad: http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jun28-AIR-CL1-Overview-AI-Robotics-Jacobstein (includes Dan Barry's CL2/3)
Privacy insurance:http://www.networkworld.com/community/node/26132
ptolemaic view - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geocentric_model
Python code used to collect Etherpads: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/Doc?docid=0AXBeYKoQJeyQZGRxMjJnNWpfNTNkbXYycDZ4Ng&hl=en
Q: Derek/Canada: Can you talk about how Brainstorm foundation is going to include external data sources. Integrating with George Church's 1000 genomes project https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/1000_Genomes_Project
Q: Similar to http://earthquake.usgs.gov/ which asks, \\\"Did you feel it?\\\", ask \\\"Did you catch it?\\\"
Quick show of OpenPCR (http://openpcr.org/)
Read more (and watch the video around 10:10, in portuguese though): http://2020science.org/2010/04/25/found-in-translation-brazilian-nanotechnology-documentary/#ixzz0sDyM0eiz
Read more: http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/07/07/080707fa_fact_kolbert?currentPage=all#ixzz0tK3ZtsDl
Recommends Tracy Kidder's Mountains beyond Mountains (http://www.amazon.com/Mountains-Beyond-Healing-World-Farmer/dp/0375506160) -- $19
Ref: http://www.cylab.cmu.edu/mobility/
reference to Push Singh's work - now ongoing in the Mind Machine Project as the OpenMind group: http://openmind.media.mit.edu
RT @switchGirl: \\\"I have many arrows in my back, which is the definition of a pioneer\\\" - Gary C Hudson #SingularityU...http://fb.me/D9EmJ3d2about 2 hours ago via mobile web
Sandra's linkedin profile:http://www.linkedin.com/in/sandracointreau
Sandra's presentations: http://sandracointreau.com/engineer.htm
Sarah Jane: I'm a collaborator and adjunct at the School of Anatomy & Human Biology, Uni of Western Australia home to SymbioticA: the Center for Excellence in Biological Arts. http://www.symbiotica.uwa.edu.au What has been the effect of the Steve Kurtz Critical Arts Ensemble Case? [http://www.caedefensefund.org/faq.html]
Sarah: New privacy laws for system which are almost as strict as Chinese government. We are blocked from speaking out against this privacy law. Orignially for children's rights. Accessnow.org.(http://www.accessnow.org/) Global organization to protect imprisoned bloggers. Will go in, if someone is arrested.
See BIOMIMICRY - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomimicry
See http://picasaweb.google.com/singularityu/TechShop#5489805973467669186
See http://singularityu.org/network/mod/groups/topicposts.php?topic=6895&group_guid=6634
See http://su-etherpad.com/ai
See http://su-etherpad.com/chm
See http://su-etherpad.com/philosophy
See powertools page at https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/powertools/
See the artist Bathsheba (http://www.bathsheba.com/ http://www.shapeways.com/shops/bathsheba) who does those mathematical shapes in metal.
Sigmoid curve. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function
Similar image:http://newcity.ca/Media/Kalundborg.gif
Sketch/collage of talk: http://bit.ly/akjPM2
slide di presentazione: http://www.templetons.com/slides/singu-intro.ppt
Slides are now available: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B2Ij9HPeinaFMjRlOTQyZWUtMGJkYS00ODA5LTg1ZGEtYzQ1ODgxZWI4MDg4&hl=en
Slides at https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaYWU0MWJlODctZWQzZi00MTk1LThiN2UtZDlkODNjMWMwODAw&sort=name&layout=list&pid=0B2Ij9HPeinaFODJjNjVlYTItNTlhMC00YzI0LWFlZDEtM2U3NTg3ODc5OTNj&cindex=1
Slides at https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaYWU0MWJlODctZWQzZi00MTk1LThiN2UtZDlkODNjMWMwODAw&sort=name&layout=list&pid=0B2Ij9HPeinaFODJjNjVlYTItNTlhMC00YzI0LWFlZDEtM2U3NTg3ODc5OTNj&cindex=1
Slides: http://bit.ly/9aTPMc
Slides: http://bit.ly/ajjKKf
Slides: http://bit.ly/ajjKKf
Slides: http://bit.ly/bBCcua
Slides: http://bit.ly/bQzngX
Slides: http://bit.ly/bXphT2
Slides: http://bit.ly/c269Cl
Slides: http://bit.ly/c269Cl
Slides: http://bit.ly/cH4aRj
Slides: http://bit.ly/d3vtIZ
Slides: http://bit.ly/d3vtIZ
Slides: http://bit.ly/dz78nb
Slides: http://www.templetons.com/slides/singu-security-priv.ppt
Slides: http://www.templetons.com/slides/singu-security-priv.ppt
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B2Ij9HPeinaFMjRlOTQyZWUtMGJkYS00ODA5LTg1ZGEtYzQ1ODgxZWI4MDg4&hl=en
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B2Ij9HPeinaFMmRkZTY4NmEtMmNjMy00OGMxLTg0NGItZTQxYTYyZjdjNDZm&hl=en
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaMTU0NzU3ZDQtZGY0Yi00ZTdmLThiNzgtMjI2NzBlMGVkMjAy&hl=en
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaNGQwZmI5NzUtYmQxOS00ZTgzLWE2YzQtYmJhYjAwM2ZjYTA4&hl=es
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaNWQyYjVhMDktNzJmNS00Mjg4LTkxN2QtNjBhZDEzOTZiZTFm&hl=en
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0ByuGXnC_X6-QZmZhZDQ0N2UtMGNjOC00OTE4LTk5MTgtMDcyNzQ5MTE5MDk2&hl=en
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaMzFjMjkwN2UtODllNy00NzE2LWIwNGItOGVjYjNjYTdkMDYw&sort=name&layout=list&pid=0B2Ij9HPeinaFODJjNjVlYTItNTlhMC00YzI0LWFlZDEtM2U3NTg3ODc5OTNj
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaYjBkM2I3YTktZmVhYy00MjExLTg1MTAtMTExY2IwYmI2YjEy&sort=name&layout=list&pid=0B2Ij9HPeinaFOTU0MDYzNDUtOWYzMS00MWI5LTlhNmYtYzc5MWU2Y2YzYjM5&cindex=4
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0ByuGXnC_X6-QNGU2ZGM0NDgtOWIzMy00ZTI3LWI4ZjgtMWQxYzU3NmFiMjE1&hl=en
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0ByuGXnC_X6-QOTNlOTFhNWItZDA0OS00OWM3LTkwZDctNjk4MTY2N2RiM2U1&hl=en
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/present/view?id=0AWIj9HPeinaFZGY2cDNjOXpfMzAwZHAzazY5OXM&hl=en
Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/present/view?id=0AWIj9HPeinaFZGY2cDNjOXpfMzcxY2tiNDU0ZDQ&hl=en
Slides:https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaOTBiYzEzNjQtMDVkMS00Y2E5LTljODctN2FhMDE1YTBhOGQx&hl=enhttps://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaOTBiYzEzNjQtMDVkMS00Y2E5LTljODctN2FhMDE1YTBhOGQx&hl=es
Slides:https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/leaf?id=0B6vjqTaW5opaOGY5ODE5OTQtYzE1Zi00YzIzLWFiNjMtYzE2ZDgxMWZkZTU3&sort=name&layout=list&pid=0B2Ij9HPeinaFODJjNjVlYTItNTlhMC00YzI0LWFlZDEtM2U3NTg3ODc5OTNj&cindex=8
Spanish version of this pad: http://su-etherpad.com/Jun29-FEE-Romer-es
Step 3: Return to the original Etherpad ( http://su-etherpad.com/core-Jul7-BB ) and drop in your reference:
Stone soup story. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stone_soup
Student Question: http://www.saffo.com/essays/disinteremediation.php says value chains are getting longer, not shorter. This came up yesterday for me as I looked at bicycle sharing which has become successful due to an ADVERTISING company. What other examples / opportunities for longer value chains do you see?
SU Spreadsheet The Power it Takes: http://bit.ly/bbRRzI
SUN discussion on potentially previous and similar tech: http://singularityu.org/network/mod/groups/topicposts.php?topic=7497&group_guid=7487/
Superconductivity: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconductivity
Surveys article on Wired cover this month (http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/06/ff_sergeys_search/all/1)
Take over that cell and make more copies of themselves, burst cell open and take over more cells [until caught and stopped by VECOY! - see http://su-etherpad.com/Jun29-Vecoy]
TaylorBiomass - http://www.taylorbiomassenergy.com/
TED talk: http://www.ted.com/talks/pattie_maes_demos_the_sixth_sense.html
Tennessee 500M gallons(?) of coal ash spilled after retaining wall broke. Further pictures online: http://tinyurl.com/t-coal-waste
The Eden Project: http://www.edenproject.com/
the end of July. http://opensciencesummit.com/schedule/
THE GIRL EFFECT http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIvmE4_KMNw
The graphic is part of this article, which doesn't appear to be available for free anymore: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19426051.200-earths-natural-wealth-an-audit.html
The Power it Takes (problem set): http://bit.ly/bULdsT
There's also cool grants we can apply for http://www.grants.gov/search/search.do?mode=VIEW&oppId=50765
There is a CAD software for these things that you can download and play with http://cadnano.org/intro.html
There is a pony in there (US joke reference: http://mustbeaponyinthere.com/ )
This is a slide - every node is a different area of science. (http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0004803 ) This map is moving at exponential speed. Imagine the kind of velocity and accelleration of human knowledge.
To use search over SSL, visit https://encrypted.google.com each time you perform a search. Note that only Google web search is available over SSL, so other search products like Google Images and Google Maps are not currently available over SSL. When you're searching over SSL, these properties may not appear in the left panel.\\\"
TOCS occur on Tuesdays, 1:30 pm PDT at Carnegie Mellon Silicon Valley campus in room 212. Talks will be broadcast and recorded via AdobeConnect. Remote attendance is available via http://cmusv.acrobat.com/tocs. Recordings are available in the talk archive.
Todas nuestras ideas crowdsourced preguntas: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10romer
Todas nuestras ideas preguntas: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10romer
Tom's Solar Panels: http://www.prismsolar.com/
Top 10 ways to stop an asteroid: http://dsc.discovery.com/space/top-10/asteroid-stopping-technology/
Tracewell and Arnold 2009 \\\"Directed enzyme evolution: climbing fitness peaks one amino acid at a time\\\" http://www.che.caltech.edu/groups/fha/cara.pdf \\\"Evolution has created numerous specialized enzymes that function in living cells to catalyze the chemical reactions of life. Their specificity is tuned so that they generally do not tread on each other\\u2019s toes. But that does not mean their specificity is absolute: a recurring observation has been that many enzymes have weak activity on non-native substrates and that directed evolution can amplify these weak activities.\\\"
Try backchan.nl here: http://singularity.backchan.nl/meetings/view/124
TSMC - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation - http://www.tsmc.com/english/default.htm
Tutte le nostre idee crowdsourced domande: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10ncscl1
Tutte le nostre idee crowdsourced domande: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10ncscl1
Twitter: http://twitter.com/wkamkwamba
USA: http://www.epa.gov/osw/nonhaz/municipal/msw99.htm
Used to have halter monitor. Shrunk - iRhythm. Put on chest for week, put it in the mail, get analysis of your heart rate. http://www.irhythmtech.com/zio-solution/zio-patch/
V. A recent article from Harper's about the \\\"food bubble\\\" --> http://www.economics.arawakcity.org/node/618
Valentina: ceramic pot with clay filter element, easy to use, produce, use local materials and skills, educational programs, successful, prevents pathogenic organisms, not useful for chemical contamination http://s189535770.onlinehome.us/pottersforpeace/?page_id=9
very nice review writeup: http://wapedia.mobi/en/Aeroponics
Vibratory bowl [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yka5u_Ax6z8]
Video here http://www.ted.com/talks/dean_kamen_previews_a_new_prosthetic_arm.html
Video: Warehouse robots: Kiva (http://www.kivasystems.com/index.html) a company that creates robots to carry items in a warehouse. Autonomous and special purpose. A huma in the loop, robots bring material to the humans. , Andy Barry use to work for Kiva
Video:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUMf7FWGdCw
Virtual water concept: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_water
Vote by adding +XX where XX are your initials (see key: http://su-etherpad.com/initials)
Vote by adding +XX where XX are your initials (see key: http://su-etherpad.com/initials)
Vote by adding +XX where XX are your initials (see key: http://su-etherpad.com/initials)
Wasn't familiar with the term base load: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Base_load_power_plant
Waste To enetrgy (Incineration) : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waste-to-energy
we can throw our desired business cards at http://su-etherpad.com/business-cards
We do not want to be the preferred vendor for Big Brother (reference to Orwell 1984: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen_Eighty-Four )
We have some Google Waves, hosted at http://wave.singularityu.org
Web: http://davidad.net
Website: http://williamkamkwamba.typepad.com/
Website: http://www.historianofthefuture.com/
Website: http://www.saulgriffith.com/
WEP http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wired_Equivalent_Privacy
What is Carbon Finance?: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_finance
When parents understand that children will live into adulthood and not die of childhood diseases, birthrate increases (?) [hypothesis that birthrate correlates with expected childhood mortality. see wrt malaria http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v415/n6872/full/415680a.html ]
Wiki page: https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/student-discussion-pages/vecoy
wiki writeup isn't bad either but plainly drew from the same sources: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Aeroponics
Wiki: https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/tp-1-space
Wiki: https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/tp-2-food-for-cities
Wiki: https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/tp-3-home-energy
Wiki: https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/tp-4-recycling
Wiki: https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/tp-5-water
Wisconsin: http://www.wnrmag.com/org/aw/wm/publications/recycle/wrws-finalrpt.pdf
Woolworths (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woolworths) was in a trap too, discount retailing is the coming thing - Target and other players get into this industry. Woolworth's doesn't get the start-up thing, try to replicate existing procedures, trying to leverage existing expertise - \\\"we dont do it that way\\\" ,mentality/rule - stiffles innovation. Woolco turns out to be a huge failiure.
Wordle of cumulative etherpad: http://www.wordle.net/show/wrdl/2208722/SU_Week_2_Wordle
World's top rice producers:http://www.mapsofworld.com/world-top-ten/countries-with-most-rice-producing-countries.html
You might enjoy looking at http://www.justiceharvard.org/

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Jun29-FEE-Romer
"Tuesday 
6/29/2010 
7:30pm
Paul Romer

Plenary: FEE Global Economics: Technology Rules, and the Start-up Dynamics
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Romer
\"A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.\"
\"Possibilities do not add up. They multiply\"
http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/EconomicGrowth.html

Paul suggests these links:
http://www.stanford.edu/~promer/
http://www.chartercities.org/
The Politically Incorrect Guide to Ending Poverty
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/07/the-politically-incorrect-guide-to-ending-poverty/8134/

Presentation slides: [Jon Badal says there are no slides - just talking]
All Our Ideas questions: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10romer

Spanish version of this pad: http://su-etherpad.com/Jun29-FEE-Romer-es
7:38
David Rose: 
Hope you had a relaxing afternoon. 
Your minds are about to be filled with really exciting stuff.
Got 2 dozen \"wow how did you get him\" e-mails.
Paul is a Stanford economist. Won a whole gaggle of awards.
Future focused.

7:39
Paul Romer:
Admirably short.
Let me start with the summary. What this talk was about.
If you give someone a fish, but if you teach someone to fish you destroy another aquatic ecosystem.
Technology and rules. What is technology: a net.
If you are Robinson Caruso, you want technology.
Interacting with other people, you want rules.
Rule 1: Boss tells who can fish and when.
Rule 2: Anyone can fish as much and whenever they like. Destroyed a lot.
Rule 3: Fish during a season. Fish fast. Inefficent. Not a good idea.
Rule 4: Quotas. Property rights system. Try to avoid inefficiency. New, more subtle form. Reduce the catch, who gets less. \"Catch shares\" You get 1/3, you get 2/3. Not only changes proportions automatically, but changes the incentives. I you make if more valuable in the future, it helps you.

Rules are things humans discover. Just as we experiment with technologies.
CO-evolution of technologies and rules that frames human progress.

Tend to view rules as a once-and-done thing. Rules change all the time.
Misleading interaction between rules and technology.
Metaphor:
Minister / doctor / economist on a golf course.
Foursome ahead is going too slow.
Ask manager - why are they out there?
Manager says, Those players were blind.
Doctor says, So sorry. I will donate $20,000 to support next handicapped day.
minister says, I'll donate my time to the next tournament
Economist says: wouldn't it be more efficient if the blind played at night.

We should not see persistent inefficiency. 
In fact, we see persisten inefficiency. WILDLY inefficient rules persist for centuries.
Then they change. 
Even when they are adaptive.

In human history, no better statement than what happened in China.
Once the \"Silicon Valley\" of its era.
Then it stagnated. Fell further and further behind.
By 1960's income per capita was 3% of US.
For 1000 years, innovation stifled.
Stopped inflow of ideas.
In late 1970s rules changed and it takes off like a rocket.
We especially need to understand this going forward.
How do we avoid this trap that China suggests.

Key is rules. Some rules lead to stability.
Think of meta-rules. Rules for making sure we have good rules.

Startups.
Hong Kong was a startup venture that used different rules from mainland China.
A big success. Demonstrated how. D
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deng_Xiaoping

Dynamics of the start-up: HK as a start-up, HK was a venture that operated according to different rules (England and China), people migrate because they oink the rule, success of rules demonstrated in HK. Little start-ups, foreign firms can come in, hire chinese workers etc, and see what happens. The city i snow a city of 10-13m people, depending on how you count it ... iphones made there. Success can be replicated elsewhere, can transform the whole economy. Start-up dynamic is pivotal to understanding how China got out of it's trap.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenzhen

Language suggests this happens on many scales. 

Woolworths (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woolworths) was in a trap too, discount retailing is the coming thing - Target and other players get into this industry. Woolworth's doesn't get the start-up thing, try to replicate existing procedures, trying to leverage existing expertise - \"we dont do it that way\" ,mentality/rule - stiffles innovation. Woolco turns out to be a huge failiure. 
Rules stop people from doing different things.
Dayton Hudson (now Target: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dayton_Hudson), also says, \"discount retailing will be big\" Don't hire anyone from existing stores. Pick own locations/stores. Then, we'll see what happens. Perfects model, it is the wave of the future.

Management at the top want it but it fails. New entities can succeed but why? how? - 

Three distinctions:
*Objects vs Ideas
*Technologies and rules
*Formal rules and informal rules 
- This is the pivotal concept.

Objects v Ideas
We can't both use object (cup). We are rivals for that object. 
We are not rivals for the pythagorean theorem, we can share an idea.
\"Non-rival\" good.
Sharing of ideas has profound implications for progress.
Combinatorial explosion takes off, discovering new ideas will continue to happen faster and faster
We will keep innovating as far as we can imagine.
Tin + Bronze.
What are allthe mixtures we can make? Hyper-astronomical. [wotd?] \x3c- I think so
We'll never mix all the combinations that could be made with all the elements in the perodic table. Almost infinite number of things we can do and discover with atoms.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yttrium + barium + = first superconductor

Discovery potential comes from combinatorial explosion. 
Two implications of non-rivalry exist

1. Potential for catching up. 

If you are behind the technological frontier, you should be at an advantage because you can copy from others. You don't have to reinvent the wheel. This explains why China's growth rate is higher than that of countries in the Technology frontier. The puzzle is not catch up, but why China stagnated for so long.

2. It has different implications for human interaction.
In a world of objects, no new ideas. ask yourself: What would be the effect on my well being if there were more people around? What would more people cause? More negative (less per person).
I will be worse off with more people.
New ideas: number of ideas goes up with the number of people I can communicate with. We can be very beneficial for each other.
Trends you see all over modern life. Antecedents far back in human history.
Trade
Urbanization
Communications - printing, digital comm, we want to talk, trade what we know for what they know
The shareability of ideas drives this interaction among people.

Second reason rules have to change. New technologies need new rules.

Things like a telephone number. Before mobile telephony, no one thought about who \"owned\" the phone number. More efficient if we gave ownership to the customer.
The rules have to change not only because of technology. The rules also change because the scale of our interaction with other people is also changing.
Think about e-mail. Only a few academics? No worry about spam. We write protocols that presume that. Scale to billions around the world -- rules don't behave well for bad behaviour. 

Can't do same things in the city that we do in roving bands.

[scatological story]

Formal and Informal Rules
We have rules about what's right and what's wrong. it would be wrong to piss on the side of a building. rules govern our behavior = human universals. but these rules really are not universal.

Striking interplay between formal rules (laws, polices officers, etc.) and informal rules (internalized norms about what is right and wrong). we will give up resources to punish those who have broken rules.

human filing system: good acts, bad acts, neutral acts. punishments act through informal norms. no idea what the 'right' norms are to follow...we look around to determine what is 'right'. replicator dynamics with strong postiive frequency reinforcement.

(See \"the ultimatum game\")
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultimatum_game

We can adaptively take on what is right and wrong. It can be very beneficial to have norms of public sanitation. Costly to have cops checking. Subtle process to manage with norms.

Stuff that is common is normal. Strong stability created for norms. Even if world changes, you will persist in belief about what is right and wrong. Economist says, \"inefficient\" -- people say, \"I don't care.\" Suppose you say to Hindu - \"it is inefficient to not eat cows for their source of protein\" - they might say, \"I don't care. It is wrong.\"

Some bad guy is in charge. Let's punish some bad guys kind of thing. Think more deeply how to change norms.
When we were hunter gatherer bands. Risk was concern. Strong sharing norms. Both appropriateness of sharing and begging. One day you may bring down the big game, next day you do. By sharing, we both eat.

After agriculture, economic problem is matching effort with reward. Constant low levels of work in agriculture - new rules: Shifiting to a new equilibrium, you can eat what you raise. Don't have to share. Changes efficient equilibirum. Captured in a few cases, studies of societies where this happened: within a band where a few individuals try agriculture, their efforts get dissipated. 

The startup is like a catalyst, gets norms changed in a low energy way.
In SOME societies, you can force from top down. Gov General in HK. Norms supported corruption. So Gov Gen changed rules. Persuasion - how much can I just talk you into changing your norms. Curriculum materials in schools - aimed particularly at new migrants.
Anti-corruption commission - the police force in Hong Kong went from corrupt to one of the most honest in the world.
Strong executive action can change norms. (When used with adequate persuasion)

Circumstances where you can use this type of top-down mandate are limited. Very hard thing to pull off.

Startup dynamic is very important with nations. Changing critical norms we now take for granted were not prevalent in the past.

One more startup.
[zoom into map of Northeastern US]
Pennsylvania was a startup
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania#History
First free religion
Amendments - EXCEPT freedom of conscience (this could not be modified)
So, new norm is strongly supported there.
Counter-example to those people who tell you \"people won't abide rules they don't make\" - ONLY Penn made the rules (initially).

Expansion of inclusion.
American frontier had inclusive societies out of New England and Mid-Atlantic states.
Regions competing for people caused spread of
1/ equal participation for women in political system, property ownership.

Pivotal in changing worldwide rights.

On your list of Grand Challenges, put grand question:
More people will move into cities. Then process is done. Population will stabilize. Fraction that is urban will stabilize. We can start new cities, or have people go to existing cities.

You don't always want to build on established base.
For dealing with rising sea levels - build in from the beginning rather than retrofit.
If new cities recreate American frontier - trying to get migrants, rather than chase them away.
Potential for enormous changes - like women's status.
Won't happen just from new cities.
Dubai - will take worker from Bangladesh - but treats them as second class citizen.
Some could compete. Allow migrants to come. Could have hundreds around world. Change course of history.

Back to picture. Suppose we took Pennsylvania and resettled it in density of central Paris (x 1/2) How many people could we fit? 1 billion? 1.2 billion.
Bottom billion - could all fit in Penn if we wanted to.
US will not be a player in this game.
Rules based on values that are going to be hard to change.
Think about Baja peninsula. All kinds of land there to start new city.
Desalination. 
Recycling - open new locations.

Dimension of inclusion is not something we do just to be nice. We harvest from being involved with more people. Enlightened self interest.

Technology and rules. 
Think of increasing life expectancy.
[video of mosquito being zapped - Intellectual Ventures 2010]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosquito_laser

As many people die in preventable traffic accidents as from malaria every day.
8:29

What kinds of rules really matter? Freedom of inclusion\u2026beyond the \u201cin-group\u201d?.

Here is a question I propose to you:
Why is it, that we go for the silver bullet technology option rather than spend focus and energies on adhering to the lessons learned and rules known to solve other key challenges\u2026i.e. comparing the laser to mosquito as a solution to eradicate malaria \u2013 rather than speed cameras at intersections to stop accidents? 

From All Our Ideas:
What questions for 29Jun-FEE-Romer (initials)? 
Do we change culture through creating incentives or through the creation of informal norms?
Aren't ideas only non-rival if they are in the public domain? what about protected IP? 

Q:

Greece could allow migrants into new city. Some cases of virtual, rather than actual zones.
For example, Mauritius. Best case for success of democracy in Africa. Firms in zone can freely export, different labor rules. One other rule: can't produce for local market.
New companies hired women, did very well.

Zones to attract FDI - Foreign Direct Investment - 
Disputes adjudicated by different judiciary
Operate in parallel.
Enormous competitve pressure on status quo.

Hong Kong. Top down change story. Anti-corruption and power of the bully pulpit are compelling. 

Q: Incremental renorming?

China had parallel processes. Competition can have beneficial new force. IBM. Good for selling to large companies. Has gone through change. Partly due to competitive pressure. Sears wasn't able to do it.
Create competition from start ups. Political entities ned

Q: Top down
Startup
or mixture

Can mix. Sometimes we change - not through legislation.
Animal rights.
Right and wrong are not human universals.
In Ulan Bator buring cats alive was entertainment.
Now 

Q: Sarah? Norms. Have you seen places where startup in healthcare changed how it is valued. change pricing. Exchanging a concrete good. Changing by fiat and by changing norms.

Data about what works. Singapore. Integrated startup. They thought about efficiency across the board.
Health care at reasonable cost. Sensible things. We can learn from those experiments.

Remember, we can copy these rules.

Risk sharing, relating to food. Insurance is hard to solve. Dealing with extremes of risk.
Pre-existing conditions, as you move around the world. Others pay more, you will get you care for less. 
If Singapore system is self-contained, it puts up impediment to exchange around the world. If you have a pre-existing condition, you may not be able to leave Singapore.

We need to have a national, not local, system in the US so as to avoid impeding mobility within the US. 
Pooling risks can fall apart. Very complicated.

Salim: What things keep you up at night?

That we will miss best chance of achieving goal of inclusion for everyone.
Kind of world you see in Dubai could extend for a long time.
Even British colonies, some set up in conditions - slave-based agriculture.
Persistent forms.
Kind of inequality in South America - strongly divided insider/outsider.

Won't be automatic as GDP grows that we will move to inclusive norms.

Also a shame that we have rules that allow financial system blow up every 10 years or so.

Contrast in systems of rules: compare civil aviation vs finance.
Civil aviation is complex. More than financial trading.
More resources go into finance, but it keeps blowing up on us.
That one gets me irritated.

Jose: No growth in humanity until industrial revolution. 
How fast, how big can this century be?

Hard to offer sharp quantitative forecast.
Lots of increase. Some catch up.
Some at frontier - more people discovering.
GDP can keep speeding up - very real. But not iron law. You cannot predict with certainty.

China is cautionary tale. Can be very irregular growth.

Other thing to remember: Cardwell's Law. No nation has remained technologically innovative for very long. One loses edge, another comes along. There are some restoring forces to slow this down. We've had more places, so far. But we could eventually get stuck.

Q: Characteristic. As nations get successful, countries growing ...
Isn't inclusion a damper on growth.

Look at US frontier. Compare movement out of South or US- least inclusive. Less education.
Inclusion doesn't mean punitive taxes and transfers. It can be done right.

Q: Challenge - city still under a nation. What about city in space?

There is an expression that captures the idea of people in space: Span in a Can.
Why put meat in space? Send sensors out there.
In terms of territory.
Photo: nothing there. Just a place of coastline.
Very low cost, very feasible ways to start new cities.
Costs of putting meat in space are prohibitive. Do space with sensors.

How many people know phrase \"sentient meat\" - funniest story I ever read.

\"They are made of meat\" - aliens puzzling about humans. 

Story Here:
http://www.terrybisson.com/page6/page6.html

Q: Where can environment 
Q: Places with dictatorships - where do it legitimately?
Q: Canada.

This would be another lecture.
Why does US or Canada not allow 100s of millions to move in.
Stipulate it won't happen.
But what if Canadians decided to put Vancouver-like city there [pointing to vacant coast line photo].

Few hub cities - flights to other hubs.
Worst thing for nation - be in periphery. You will all live near major airport.
If this country has just a few million residents, they will never get the major airport based on their own population.

My guess is that this is going to happen in places like this. Leadership will sign leases like Hong Kong. Ask, would you do HK again? Yes, most important thing in China today
Now they would ask for it, rather than resist it.
Leaders in countries have ministers for special zones.
Soon, name them ministers for new cities.

City around a major airport: aerotropolis.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerotropolis
The organizing unit for all the new cities.

Q: Confused about charter cities in middle of nowhere.
Inclusion is 

Dense urban settlements cover less land. Do you want to encourage New York - less carbon.

Q: I agree with that - you retrofit what you have. We are not good at ecosystem restoration.

Could get enormous net gains for environment. Some local degradation. Benefitsfrom pulling people off what they do now would be big net.

A lot of people don't add and subtract. They view things in normative terms, \"It's wrong.\"

Q: Shary. Constructing islands off coasts. Feasible?
Cheaper than space.

Still very expensive compared to this location [vacant land again]
Political discussions should not be so costly that we have to go to sea.

How affordable is housing going to be.
Many societies begin with ... 
New cities will have to be very low cost in terms of capital structures, transport systems.
Off shore is non-starter. Most movers from rural to urban will be untrained workers.

Dubai - betting on biggest airport in the world. Tight links between containers and airplanes.

Market for developers - large numbers of low income. Lots of place competing for them, not treating them as second class.

Q: Sasha/Canada. Have you seen rate of change accelerating at all?
What are implications?

Trend has been for accelerating growth. Masked by growth going into more people - not income per capita. Only when we cross demographic transistion and birthrates fall.

General trend: speeding up growth Rate of innovation will be proportional to people engaged in it.
Huge opportunity to shift people into discovery from implementing on formulas.

Dynamic of rules becomes key.

Q: Rules/norms take time. Changing technology goes much faster.

We need to think about the dynamics of rules. If we could change rules faster. Don't think much about mapping back from tech to rules.
Think about control variables.
IF startups cause leaps forward in rules - this century has unique opportunity because so many people move to cities.

Q: Impact of tech on rules. Gets ignored. Can quickly deflate economies ...

Fishing example is the cautionary one. Potential of rules to lag.
Global warming could be another one.
We could have low carbon lifestyles. But our ability to set rules - with global implications.
Tuna or whale fisheries are harder than cod off New England.
Lots of people need to be part of agreement.

Q: Andrew/ Canada. Famines. Supply issue. Maybe demand issue. Who will provide incentive to turn this into Vancouver?

Heard a couple of things. Food and potential - food scarcity issue. Possiblity of building where no arable land.

Q: Example of supply issue actually caused by lack of demand (inability to pay).
Great supply of potential city. But no demand for city there.

Some people thinking about city-scale development.
Incredibly lucrative.
Land increases in value by 100s of billions of dollars.
This is what motivated Penn. He wanted to build Philadelphia. Never made money out of it.
What prevents it is political risk.
People who create infrastructure worry that government will expropriate value.
Contracts extending decades into the future.
If you create those conditions, money pours in.
Elaborate on this:
Enormous problem of insufficient investment demand.
More investment, less consumption. Reduce debt levels.
Insufficient worldwide demand for investment.

Poor countries face unbelievable demand for investment.
As people urbanize, this is enormous.

Half world thinks insufficient demand, half not getting what they need.
Solved by dealing with political risk.

Penn turnpike being bought. Can collect tolls for next 4 decades.
Build it there [vacant land] - who knows how long you can collect?

Dealing with certainty of returns. Risks. Hard problem.

Q: Bill /US: Structural equilibrium. Balance to society with more rules, with group they want to be in.

One dimension, empirically. Hard to maintain open society and have it accept lots of immigrants. Immigration is threatening to equilibrium.
During expansion phase, could compete for these people. Way to really make a killing is to become New York (big) rather than Syracuse (small).

Q: How do you get people to change?
A: think about Pennsylvania or startup companies
I think people are going to be surprised about how strategic city planning is going to be

Q: Why are people moving to cities? Is it because of technologies inability to create connections? If we can create technologies that will bring people together will then stop moving?
A: Part of it comes from being able to talk to each other, another part comes from trading with each other. Think about water - the safest way to bring water to a large number of people is by municiple means - less piping required

[end of presentation]
All Our Ideas crowdsourced questions: http://www.allourideas.org/gsp10romer
Please take 2 minutes to vote for suggestions.

10:02
Fireside talk
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-docking
Walmart perfected this.

A billion people could live in Australia.

SJP: Tribalism and community based values have been the same for millenia. One difference, shift to being nomadic tribe - through airports. I don't understand how urbanization can be inclusive of culture. Instead, homogenization.

Muslim societies might have different norms.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Temple-Grandin-TED-Talk
"Temple Grandin: The world needs all kinds of minds
http://www.ted.com/talks/temple_grandin_the_world_needs_all_kinds_of_minds.html

Temple Grandin, diagnosed with autism as a child, talks about how her mind works -- sharing her ability to \"think in pictures,\" which helps her solve problems that neurotypical brains might miss. She makes the case that the world needs people on the autism spectrum: visual thinkers, pattern thinkers, verbal thinkers, and all kinds of smart geeky kids.

2:50 Thinking in Pictures http://www.grandin.com/inc/visual.thinking.html
4:00 I could test a design in my mind
4:30 Where are those kids going today -- not Silicon Valley where they belong
5:30 I have a \"trunk line\" for graphics
6:00 Pattern thinking
6:30 Types of minds 
Photo realistic
Pattern thinkers
Verbal minds
7:20 Animals think in smells - lots of information on the local fire hydrant
8:30 Putting things into categories - people or equipment problems?
9:40 Thinking is bottom up - take the pieces and put them together
10:00 World needs all different minds to work together
10:50 Show kids interesting stuff - show them TED talks
11:00 Kind of trade off between thinking and social
13:50 Use fixations to motivate kids
14:40 Mentors - bring in people who have retired - light the spark
18:30 get excited about seeing real change in the real world, not abstract stuff

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Jun30-NCS-workshop-energy
"Cars could not belong to people, they could belong to everybody.
Zipcar - you don't own the car, it is shared.

PRT - personal rapid transit - is in testing for Masdar city.

\"Cars\" maybe even limit your view too much. Think \"transportation\"
As a leisure tool, cars are okay. Like I might want to have a plane.
But for meeting transportation needs, that's different.

* Vehicles refuel/recharge themselves
* Depots need not be convenient to humans
* Can be totally cramped
* Vehicles can be the entire energy storage battery of the grid, as is required for renewables.
* Experimental fuels become practical
* Can be refueled automatically at central stations
* Robot battery swap or plug in to charing poles
* Dynamic power grid of home-generated energy, grid energy, and batteries in cars
* Smart appliances use energy when it is cheapest.

Swap station: you go in a kind of tunnel that takes out your empty battery and replaces it with a full battery, which rotates the batteries and charges them over time.

Denmark has an overcapacity from wind energy - they are already producing 30% of their energy from wind, and at night they have to sell it under cost because they are competing with French nuclear energy. If we recharge the cars at night with wind energy, and drive by the day, we could get rid of oil imports.

We are very far away from the physical limits of energy storage. We can probably increase 200% in the next 3 years.

There about 1 billion cars on the planet - perfect for our 10^9+ mandate!
Think about every single moving vehicle being a power storage point. There would be no problem with storing renewables. And it would be robust, like the Internet. A revolution.
The biggest problem is with monopolies in energy that may see it as a big threat to their power.

If we want to ignite something in this direction, where should we start?
We have examples including Israel, Denmark, Hawaii - none of these places have car manufacturers.

Cars that can run on tracks and/or use overhead cables for energy and/or draft each other and/or physically connect to each other to share engine power.

Silver Line - bus/subway combination

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Davidad-5C-27s-20unconference-20talk
"
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"
http://su-etherpad.com/Jul25-Rick-Tumlinson-Orphans-of-Apollo
"Sunday
7/25/2010
7:30 pm
Rick Tumlinson 
http://www.orbitaloutfitters.com/

Movie: Orphans of Apollo

http://www.orphansofapollo.com/

7:47
This is a documentary.
A story about the Greatest Space Story never Told.
An amazing attempt to privatize the Mir Space Station.
Made possible by 
Walt Anderson
currently serving time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Anderson_(tax_evader)
All of us benefitted from Walt.
This was his biggest attempt to convert space into a commercial opportunity.
Heroics
Vision
A bit of craziness.
Rick, who is prominent throughout movie, will be here.

7:49
[Countdown ...

fireball

Titan launch
U
S
A

View of Earth from Moon.
Lander descending

Russians were first
with Sputnik
with first man in space
with Mir station

Their rockets were far more powerful than ours.

\"cold cash cold space\"

Peter D: Take western money, or close shop.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir
\"It was the world's first consistently inhabited long-term research station in space, and the first of the third generation type of space station, constructed from 1986 to 1996 with a modular design. The station was in operation for fifteen years until March 23, 2001, when it was deliberately de-orbited, breaking apart during atmospheric re-entry over theSouth Pacific Ocean.\"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MirCorp
\"MirCorp was a commercial space company created in 1999 by space entrepreneurs and involving the Russian space program that successfully undertook a number of firsts in the business of space exploration by using the aging Russian space station Mir as a commercial platform.\"

\"wild frontiers\"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_space_program
*1984: First woman to walk in space, Svetlana Savitskaya (Salyut 7 space station)
*1986: First crew to visit two separate space stations (Mir and Salyut 7)
*1986: First permanently manned space station, Mir, which orbited the Earth from 1986 until 2001
*1987: First crew to spend over one year in space, Vladimir Titov and Musa Manarov on board of TM-4 - Mir

LEASE AGREEMENT FOR MIR SPACE STATION

MirCorp Approves Operation of Mir Space Station In Permanently-Manned Mode Beginning Next Year
PRESS RELEASE
Date Released: Tuesday, July 18, 2000
Source: MirCorp 
Missions in 2001 to include flight of MirCorp's first Citizen Explorer, Dennis Tito
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=2244

\"the mega business plan\"

The rebirth of the Russian space program: 50 years after Sputnik, new frontiers 
By Brian Harvey
http://books.google.com/books?id=kmTz6Phf5WYC&pg=PA28&lpg=PA28&dq=%2B%22golden+apple%22+walt+mir&source=bl&ots=U8vUjeZx5s&sig=b6CPycfeHh65EKyTHPD8_vWXE_8&hl=en&ei=9v1MTOj8F5_1nAeIqdT9Dw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=6&ved=0CCAQ6AEwBQ#v=onepage&q=%2B%22golden%20apple%22%20walt%20mir&f=false

\"our space station\"

\"the journalist\"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_propulsion

\"falling star\"

An eyewitness, CNN's Hugh Williams, who was on the island of Fiji as Mir streaked across in its final moments, indicated he saw a spectacular light show accompanied by sonic booms, a light show like he had never seen before, something, he said, that took his breath away.
http://archives.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0103/23/se.01.html

Legislation Supports Domestic Commercial Crew Initiatives to Reduce Reliance on 
Russian Soyuz and Bring Critical High-Tech Jobs Back to the US

Hawthorne, CA \u2013 July 20, 2010 \u2013 SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies) applauds the efforts of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee for their unanimous, bipartisan approval of the NASA Authorization Act of 2010. 
http://www.spacex.com/press.php?page=20100720

http://www.spacex.com/

Michael Potter
Funding Singularity University video now.

Rick Tumlinson
8:41
This man, buddy, and I have been through a lot.
Rick has been there - sometimes in the front, usually in the back.
Space Frontier conference.
http://spacefrontier.org/
http://newspace2010.spacefrontier.org/index.php

What you are witnessing really is a revolution.
An amazing change.
Revolutions happen and we really are in one.
The relationship of the human species to the universe is changing - right now.

That's my motivation.
For me, this is a spiritual quest.
I literally believe - there is a belief we share that the universe is populated by life.
Empirically, there is only one planet we know of that has life - and we are on it.
Billions of stars out there - no intelligence out there that we have found.
If that's true -
just did a great session with Chris McKay -
then he went and quoted Roger zevasny?
I believe there is a Robert Heinlein book,
Stranger in a Strange Land.
Looks at a grasshopper and says \"Thou art god.\"
We are the sentient beings in the universe.
We are what takes an otherwise dead realm and makes it alive.
We describe the universe.
We create the universe for itself.
I love that line - if a tree falls in the forest, is it there?
If those wave patterns are not associated with concepts in the database of your brain - there isn't sound.
We interpret the universe to itself.
We are god. The universe is us.

Second level:
If we are the only planet. We are the only one we know of.
Makes it very important we take care of this planet.
Taking life to worlds now dead becomes very interesting.
As a cultural driver -- I am part of the civilization.

Prime Directive
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Directive

: What's that?

Give this man a television.

The mandate is on us to make those changes.
Excited by what you are up against - for or with.
We are at such a pivotal time in history.

Gerry O'Neill.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerard_K._O'Neill

Post Apollo.
Anything was possible.
Gerry challenged his class to discuss where to live in space.
What was interesting at that time - we had foreign wars, energy crisis, promise that space
would open in our lifetimes ...
We're in that cycle again.
We had people roughly your age, who had grown up in 1960s watching Star Trek.
Watching the reality and the fiction.
Asimov
Stayed in school, started companies, made it through bubble, and had a dream.
They are back.
Almost like the calvary arriving.

One of the first - Walt Anderson - an amazing guy.
First shots was Mir. Normal people could get involved.
Second was Dennis Tito.
Third was the XPrize.
Off we were to the races.
Back to roots - Gerry - the godfather of soul.
Go build your dream.
Giving you guys the permission to dream.
Throwing people at you, giving you an intellectual matrix.
Along came SpaceX.
We are literally Gerry's kids.
Breaking out of the planet.
Anything you want to ask, comment. What happened?

David Dell: Science/Business/Robots and then people in space. Don't have to happen together.
People in space is what you just said. How do you find just science in space being enough?

Science does not just exist in the absence of human beings.
Science/art comes from that.
Robert Park
\"We'll send robots, not people.\"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_L._Park

It is not either/or, it is first/later.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wernher_von_Braun
Germans: \"Ve vill raunch de sbase pvogram und yu vill vatch un TV\"
Sagan: \"billions and billions of stars. Don't touch it.\"
Gerry: Free space

What we have now - we are not betting on one horse.

A multiplicity of different companies with different approaches.
Mao said, a 1000 flowers will bloom.
http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/226950.html
[
The full quotation, taken from a speech of Mao's in Peking in February 1957, is:
\"Letting a hundred flowers blossom and a hundred schools of thought contend is the policy for promoting progress in the arts and the sciences and a flourishing socialist culture in our land.\"
]
Companies with their own money and different technologies.
Kind of hard to kill.

Brought
Earth to the Moon
Serenity
Buffy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_diving
http://www.redbullstratos.com/

We trademarked Space Diving. If anybody else does it, they are jumping.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felix_Baumgartner

Man to Break Sound Barrier Jumping from Edge of Space
http://gizmodo.com/5454895/man-to-break-sound-barrier-jumping-from-edge-of-space
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dayvan_Cowboy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Kittinger

I'm having an interesting argument with Burt Rutan.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burt_Rutan
He thinks we don't need spacesuits.
He thinks the pressure vessel will never break.

When it happens, we have to celebrate ...

Jack Kennedy. Passed best liability law in the country. Ski resort law.

: We are approaching a time when the ISS will be facing the end of its useful life. Will history repeat itself.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8679.0

A lot of the old discussions don't work.

: If I could extend the plausible irony. A wildcard. The documentary was fairly neutral.
Timing coincided with his return.
The documentary leaves that up to you to judge.
But Walt is going to be coming and rejoining in the next ...

He was in maximum security.

T: They threw him into the D.C. jail. Without a trial for almost a year.
He hired Bill Clinton's lawyer, then they took all his money away.
Gave him a public defender.
So Walt pled guilty.
I testified.
Hubris will take you down. Walt had quite a bit.
Lesson to be learned: he thought he was smarter than everybody else.
He thought his goals and motivations we so self evident that everybody would understand.

I wanted Mircorp to be based in the US. Joint endeavor of US and Russians.
What happened was they hired an old school PR firm, incorporated in Holland.
When enemy puts you in a certain light - you are on the defensive from then on.
If you are a car company, you can be a playboy image.
BUT, if you are involved with the tax payers, they don't like that playboy thing.
One of the things we are trying to do with the movement is recharacterize it.
Not rich guys and their toys.
[Oh really? http://www.rocketracingleague.com/ ]

David R: Have relationships been developed?

Yes and no.

Just had a great video from Garver.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lori_Garver

We've had little parts - but not friends on the inside.
Then we have folks like you coming along to move things to the next stage.

Emiliano: Why did you need ITAR clearance for tether?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Traffic_in_Arms_Regulations

We almost did it all with the Russians.
We - at the beginning of the process - didn't know how long it was going to be.

Thing with ITAR - you can't have a technical discussion. You can't lay out the specs.
ITAR is the enemy of small companies, not big aerospace companies -- they can afford all those lawyers.

ISU
http://www.isunet.edu/
Interesting way of human maneuvering around the bureaucracy of ITAR.
Thanks for letting me come.
Has been a 3-4 day conference.
9:29 Thanks a lot. [applause]

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Jul17-Kamen-and-Solar
"E-mail from Peter Diamandis (17 July 2010):

Two requests/questions:

(1) Dean Kamen has asked me to give him a list of fresh new innovators who are expected to great things... perhaps younger, less well-known but interesting figures in technology. Individuals who are inspiring, innovative up-and-comers. If you have such an individual, please give me their Name, Company/Affiliation, email, and a brief example of what they are doing (\x3c100 words please)!

(2) Solar Energy Breakthroughs. What companies, researchers, technologists are you familiar with that are driving the breakthroughs in solar cell cost & efficiency?

"
http://su-etherpad.com/playground
"
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"
http://su-etherpad.com/Jul22-SU-Companies
"Thursday
7/22/2010
1:08 pm
SU Companies

Peter:
Slides: http://bit.ly/bRfHZL

SU Companies
Current Thoughts...
Our vision for our future community

Reason new companies is cool - lives a long term life to an idea.
9 out of 10 companies fail.
High attrition rate

We are calling companies that come out \"SU Companies.\"

A lot of this is conceptual.
As going along, raise hand and we'll try to answer.
A vision for the future.

SU Elements 
GSP
Online Programs
7 Day Exec Program / 3-1/2 Day/Custom Exec Program / 1-1/2 Day Teaser Exec Program
SU Affiliated Angel Fund / SU Affiliated Incubator / SU Labs

An on-line program could help scale.

9 Day program costs $15,000.
Can pack into 7 days. Easier to get 7 days off. 
Doing a 3-1/2 day - a company wants us to create -
say Goodyear wants an in-house presentation
Abu Dhabi coming here
Talking about Tony Robbins doing a Teaser. Experience, feel it, want more.

Types of people who come - Rob Nail - about a third have built and sold.
A third in a company - in company
A third in angel fund

What we are looking to do:
create SU affliated angel fund
incubator
labs

Those are the three parts I am going to expand in.
What is an SU company.
1. Comes out of the team project.
Licenses IP
You all signed participation agreements.
IP is SU's property, but we'd be happy to license it.
2. GSP students - unrelated to team project
If you wanted to be an SU company, you could be.
3. Co started with SU faculty

Requirements to become an SU company:

Filter -
- approved by board
- company makes contribution to \"founding shares\"

- Why have SU companies?
1. SU endowment
2. Success will help further 10^9+ goals.
3. Principals care

Salim: What happens next?
How many are unclear about what follows GSP10? [everyone]
Last year, a lot wanted to create companies.
This year, we want more guidance. The world is essentially your oyster.

Peter: \"SU Affliliated Incubator\"
1. A home.
Could be Kauffman associated
2. Selective
10^9+ potential
3. Bring some funding, provide equity
4. Incubator can supply traditional things - HR, etc.

- \"SU Labs\"
A research idea.
Big enough idea to attract capital. Where are you going to do the research?
Caltech ... huge financial overhead cost.
1. In this scenario, this would be home.
2. SU Lab accepts grant
3. Bring your own funds
4. SU will take overhead component, supply facilities, advisory, HR, payroll

Chiara: We'd need to bring hardware?
Peter: We'd develop together.

Rob: Mine was same idea. Just with color.
Peter: 
- SU Community/Flow
GSP Program -> SU Companies -> Incubator
Exec Program (people with capital / resources) -> Invest $$ -> SU Angel fund -> SU Companies
V
SU Labs -> company spin out -> Incubator

Rob: Regional club.
Fellows program.
Overall - 4 key things coming out
Entrepreneurs
Ideas
Experts
Investors

-> SU Affiliated Angel Fund
-> $$ -> SU Companies / SU Incubator / SU Labs

Salim: Two hard outputs. Main thing is taking action.
Expose people to technology, then do something with it.
Research idea.
Quantum computing expert, chatting with nanotech guys - room temp supercomputing within decade.
Straight company
Getaround
Non-profit, social venture
One Global Voice

This is addressing the first two.
How to do the third, have not figured out yet.
SU acts like a for-profit, even though it is a non-profit.
It is important to have business-like structure in non-profit world.

Business is the main culture today.

Peter: Just because we have some recordings going on. This is not a request for money.
Off the record.

No warranties of any kind.
Discussion.
No legal advice is being given.
No financial advice is being given.

Peter: 
What do you do?
Team project. 
Get it done. This is your priority.
You are not going to do your team project after this.
Second, companies wanting to license IP will need to sign an agreement.
Third, if you have a new or past company that you want to have as an SU Company.
E-mail to SUCompany@singularityU.org.
Name exec members
Exec summary of business
Funding
Willingness to make equity contribution

Salim: A lot came said, we are going to invest - with or without you.
Really this is reactive in some sense.
There is a demand here we need to resolve.
Acceleration of these technologies.
Next Google, next FaceBook could come out of these technologies.
You will be best informed people in the world, 
that is a powerful place to be.
Rob: Only thing to add - 4 categories.
Lots of entrepreneurs looking to be associated.
People looking to invest in that idea - executive level, seasoned people.
Need a key marketing guy ...
Derek: Team project is priority - whole lot easier if we know our target.
Salim: 90% of alums are showing up on final weekend.
Critical you get to know those folks.
Ample opportunity to get to know them.

Dhuval: Partners here?
Salim: Sure.

Dmitry: Google? Incubator idea.
Salim: AutoDesk and Google are donors.
Associate founders are angel investors.
One attendee got something funded. It didn't' go well. Then they came told us. We didn't know it happened.
Initial conditions - cap table - in the beginning.
First week or two weeks are critical.

Rob: This is a non-profit university setting. Develop leaders. This is an educational institution developing people and content.
Lots of people want to fund company started, but we have to keep that separate. Or risk devaluing education.
Unless student projects are incredible, there is no place for second part. 
You may need to go off and realize - ah, here is where the next big thing comes up.

Chiara: Weekend with alumni - would like to have their bios. Target.
Peter: Add a point there. Passionate about a few things here. The rings ...
Absolutely urgent for us to have a robust on-line network. We don't have that yet.
Rob, Keith, Salim know that.
If you have resources to bring forward, let us know.
I'm looking for an AI expert in Kazakstan.
What SU alumni are in CISCO.
Never developed it at SU.
: Actually working on it - with or without you. 
Dmitry: Will make this happen this summer.
Rob: Other people involved. Bring pieces of puzzle. Asset map. Make introduction.
Derek: Can you make requirements generally available?
Salim: We have basic requirements.
Peter: Another lunchtime session.
: Network in FaceBook.
Salim: Let's not get into details here.
Peter: Does what we are proposing upset anyone? Disconcerting? Asking for voluntary donations.
We want to help you. We want you to help us build this.
Want to be very upfront about this.
Davidad: 1% club. Now 2%. 10% next year?
Peter: We are getting rid of the words \"1% club\" and calling it SU companies.
Keith has made some good points - warrants or founding equity. 
Agreement for end of summer. 
U wants to take fair minority positions. Range of 2-3%. That's where that comes from.
Salim: Several students/alum have come for \"blessing and validation\" of faculty.
Coming from outside - different levels we can provide.
Different menu items that would constitute value add.

Claudia: NGOs
Salim: Would love to start a converation. Many of you have started NGOs.
How to manage that stream of output.

Eric: SU is dedicated to education. What about education-related SU companies? Same framework?
Salim: If online component became company?
Eric: Strong connection to SU, sharing faculty materials.
Salim: Course in Brazil - 2nd week in Nov. 1 week course. 
Dutch THNK wants to license content.
Module called \"Accelerating Technologies\"
Difficulty of redoing content means it is freshest.
Emiliano: Standardized set of company starting docs.
Salim: Yes.
Eugenie: Location?
Salim: Needs to be here. French company is nightmare.
Jose: Cyberspace.
Raycho: In haven ...
Peter: Bob?? 
Bob: Want to know more about what not to do, talk to me.
Chiara: Would you be on board?
Peter: Talked a bit about that. Team of faculty or staff or board observer status.
You can imagine if 50-100 companies, may be spreading thin.

: Oxford started somehow. Very first founders are long dead - may not happen in this case.
Carry this message to as broad a reach as possible.
A lot of endowments constructed from work and generousity of students.
Corporate founders are here because it is cool.
We want to start something that lasts and grows.
Realization that there is open source / let's share everything world.
When people get too fixated on intellectual property - say in pharma - then conversation shuts down.
That would be a bad thing to happen.
What is the state of the art - what are the good/bad things we can talk about in an open way.
From a Univ point of view, have enough fin stability to grow indefinitely. If biological people can't be immortal, at least U can.
IP done at other U. Ideas that come from the U. Google from Stanford. Genentech from UC. 
Became big companies. U benefited - win/win. The individuals benefited much more.
501c3 - U be proper. Well structured, be proper. Well structured, cared for.
Make sure done well.
Clear line of demarcation. Not too blurry.

9 of 10 will fail. Everybody is optimistic. Most cos in Silicon Valley. Most - 95%, sell for less than $25 m.
$35 m isn't bad. Extremely rare to create a company that sells for more than that.
We aim to be 1000 times bigger than that.
Peter: Thank you Reese.

Vincent: Accredited?
Peter: If accredited. Fundamental difference to you? [about 15%]
: What does it mean?
Peter: That you can get credits toward a degree.
Salim: We are issuing a degree.
Peter: For us to issue a degree, we'd need at least a 1 year in length.
Competing against other U's.
Did Masters programs with ISU.
My personal opinion - keep the 10 week, exec, some on-line.
Worth having an affliation with Stanford - get 3 credits at Stanford/Berkeley.
Salim: Need to define curriculum and not have it change.
May be structurally impossible.
Future of higher ed.
No idea how it will work in the future.
Not a valid outcome.
Harvard is not an accredited univ. - the business school.
What you get from H B School is the reputation.

To get into that accreditation thing, it mires you in things 100x worse than NASA.
Lauren: Expensive too.
Andrew: Easier visas? Non-accredited status, even coming from Canada - caused scrutiny.
Salim: The answer is no. Unless accredited, you can't come on that route.
We think of this as an executive leadership /development program.
If you had \"Microsoft Word University\" it would be a trade school.

Bill: Incubator and investment arm.
Charles River.
Raising money from external sources - can be negative.
Salim: That bias happens in all incubators. A threshold - at what point.
Bill: Investment arm - if they don't invest, why would anyone else?
Salim: 
Peter: We do not invest past this valuation point.
Salim: They'll have A line .. not seed stage flexibility.

Peter: Promised an hour.
Salim: Announcement for NASA viSalim: Announcement for NASA visit.
Jose: 2 cars - 8 people.
Those going in bikes - meet in 5 minutes.
Grab helmet.
Meet in B3.
Salim: NGO, non-profit stream. Later meeting.

Notes taken by steve cronin on this:

Remember that 9 out of 10 companies fail....
Current thoughts.. Our vision for the future of community
graduate student program 

online program (would like to create this)

7 day exec program --> $10,000 + food and housing instead of $15,000 including everything...

3.5 day custom exec programs --> could be for goodyear execs
1.5 day teaser exec 

SU affiliated angel fund --> pot of money to invest in SU companies
SU affiliated incubator 
SU labs 

What is an SU company?
company that comes out of a team project which utilizes TP related concepts/ intellectual property).
a company started (concieved of) by GSP students during the summer voluntary).
A company start by or with SU alumni after GSP, 

Requires to become an \"SU Company\"
*A company that is \"approved\" by the SU board of trustees and SU faculty
*not all companies will be approved; looking to approve companies which are strong, finance-able, incorporate SU's principals.
Benefits of being an SU company
if resulting from TP, a license to the Tp's intellecual properties
Why does SU desire to create \"SU companies\"

SU afflicated incubator...
An SU-affiliated incubator could be a home or nest for your new company
The SU affiliated incubator will be very selective on which companies are admitted
Singularity University labs...
SU labs is a non-profit research institute within SU a home or nest for your research ideas
SU labs can accept a donation or grant from a benefactor
To have a project within SU labs, you need to bring your own funding
SU will take an overhead component and provide value facilities, advisory, HR, payroll, etc
sucompany@singularityu.org

companies wanting to \"license ideas or IP\" out of the TP will sign an agreement to become an SU company.

If you have a new or past company that wants to become an SU company, please send an email to and include:
name of su members on team
exec summary of your business
status of your funding
willingness to make the equity contribution to SU

we need to be able to create a robust online network to help develop a robust online network

reese jones...

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-water
"WATER IDEAS
===

How can we get a dirt-cheap water quality test
How can we leverage social networks like Ethiopian grandmothers
How can we get everyone in the world to wash their hands after going to the bathroom, before eating, etc?
Getting geo water data into the hands of those that can put it in to good use.
Smart grid integrated sensor network for water. This could be something that we could target at the rich population. What other tech could we target at the rich population? [Paul Stimers said: Some estimates Chicago loses 60% in pipes under the city. It just disappears. That is staggering. Produce/Transport/Treat.]
Improve organizational fragmentation: 25 entities managing SF bay; 54000 water systems in the US. Leads to regulatory and jurisdictional tie-ups.
Improve data fragmentation: the data on water is all fragmented by different owners, different time scales, different spatial scales.
Water cone sitting in salt water. How can we get these types of devices produced, distributed, and used? What are our metrics for deciding which devices are best (both physical metrics (cost, how well they work), and social metrics (how well it will be used))?
Microfinancing: make it easier to pay back bigger amounts when you have bigger money and smaller amounts when you have smaller money.
Football - Design refillable and wearable water bottles for use in Africa. Make it cool and football crazy to use refillable water bottles.

Erez: 
Water TP proposition \u2013 Broad access to Solar-Vaporizes (a bit more about the water cones)
Introduction:
Purification of water is driven by power but third world countries hardly have access to power sources. The most abundant source of energy in these countries is unharvested sunlight. Most developing countries have water it the form of salt water, polluted water, compost and sewage. Wouldn't it be great if we could transform all that dirty forms of water to fresh water, and doing so for free, without power expenses? Just to make it interesting, lets have it done easily by villagers in every desolated village in Africa. Is that too much to ask for?
Suggestion:
Solar vaporizers are very simple devices that vaporize dirty water in a closed apparatus and collect the condensed purified water in a separate cup. The process does not entail any energy investment, just to fill with dirty water and put in the sun. These devices are so simple they could be distributed anywhere! The cheaper and lighter we can make it, the more it will be get around even to the places two mule days away from any city. We can create a solar vaporizer cap made out of a flexible plastic bag, which will cover an ordinary barrel. Villagers could generate water for themselves and for animals from dirty sources with no labor or expenses. Except household and farm scale vaporizers we can also scale the vaporizers up to a very large size to float on lakes, palms and oceans, converting salty water to drinking water. I have a bunch of sketches how to do that already. If we chose to do this, we should think super-lowtech and extra cheap. The cheaper it is (1$ or less for a device), the more abundant and useful it we be. Any thoughts?

Lizzie:
Erez - love the idea - would like to learn more about the technical aspects of it.
Would like to think about what kind of scale we are working on (personal, household, village, nation etc.)
Also, would be interesting to think about how you can make water a sustainable business model (not so hard as the demand is so consistent and high.)

Also, check this technology out:
http://www.lifesaversystems.com/about01.html

Notes from our team meeting: 07/02/2010

EDUCATION
- In the school environment: create a system in the local community: include water purification in education
- Open source policy consodium to ensure clean water
- Water purification agency

FILTRATION:
- Desalination technology, water filtration, developing water solutions, whatever system easy to implement and contextual to the place we are trying to implement it to. (Indigenous people are the best person to know what they need\u2026) 
- Vehicle/water tube in the tank to use it as a filtration device.
- Solar vaporizer.
- Use bacteria to remove waste
- Water purification for cities, water purification using nanotech
- Silver antimicrobial funnel 
- Diancaman (?) water filtration
- Filtration on the side of large building, using the water vertically. Green water. 
- Life straw with amazing filter with a pomp different filter according (collect all different existing filters.)
- Real time low cost diagnostic taste. people die because the water is contaminated
- sanitize the waste: check project from Stanford students in Kenya , check confidentiality.
- System to sort easily the waste water to the clean water

ECOSYSTEM
- Partnering with NGO, you have to connect with local authorities, and have their backing as well. 
- Opportunity at SU to connect with people who has a wide network
- Provide a consulting service to NGO, other people who are in the field and need some help.
- Bottle water for endanger water to raise capital very cool model. Rich people are willing to pay extra money

EFFICIENCY IN WATER SYSTEMS & DELIVERY
- Technology to reduce water waste
70% of the water is waster (municipalities system are linked\u2026) what\u2019s the point of purification without addressing the waste (leverage information technology and awareness and education to address this problem)
- POU Water purification, clean the water right after it is use
- Reuse rich people water who use clean water: reuse their water from their laundry, \u2026Scale it for a single home, and come for a solution for grey water.
- DIW and GEN: gel you can buy to put it on the top of the plant. Very small soap and the effect is much more water than the water itself. Instrument to collect the water from the tube/grass. If we can invert the process. Jelly to reactivate with the oxygen and produce water. What if we reverse the system water=>gel=>water. Check out with bio background
- supply chain to facilitate the access to the water: women in Africa, India are walking long distances to get some water
- water power plan with filtration (combine with energy\u2026)

DETECTION
- Cost effective contamination detection (sensor...)

- Define characteristics for each solution: access to technology, reusable, efficiency in creating water, operating cost, volume per time, filtering, scalability, stakeholders involved\u2026

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-upcycle
"UPCYCLE IDEAS
===

Two ways to approach upcycle:
1) Fixing the production problem (elliminating the creation of waste)
2) Dealing with existing waste problem

IDEAS FROM BRAINSTORMING SESSION
1. A home bio-reactor that turns organic matter into energy (rather than compost) 

2. Upcycling human waste - how can we deal with human waste in the developing world (possibly turn into a fertilizer). Example: Engineer an organism that can produce 2 extra enzymes too process urine/poop into fertilizer.
-in Ethopia, farmers already use cow dung as fuel by burning it. There is potential for using this as an energy source.

3. Turning waste from dumpsites into jewelry/fashion materials. Example: Phillipines.

4. SMART trash can in home or neighborhood. AI/Robotic design that can tell what materials are wasted/thrown away... educating companies.

**5. Matching recyclable waste to needs.
-Broker/marketplace where all waste is listed, and other companies list their needs, enabling trading of waste between companies. Basically an \"eBay\" for waste.
-Perhaps building a website or an AI system that matches waste inputs with other company's outputs
-Similar idea: value chain
-\"Alibaba\" of waste
-Turning waste into side businesses

6. Policy changes forenforcing companies to upcylce. Example: must upcycle 10 percent of organic materials, and 20 percent inorganic materials.

7. Upcycling electronic circuits and computation parts that have been thrown away and moving them into electronics for the developing world. Example: creating cheap laptops.
-Complicated to find/seperate old electronic parts. Set up a system to improve separation.

8. Installing toilets in 3rd world countries. 

9. Waste market AI system. 

10. Engineering natural proteins in food to prevent waste (i.e. making fruits last longer).
Carlos: So, I'll copy & paste the excerpt from the video which shows the tech that has been used by the brazilian researchers in regard to food waste prevention:

0.10 Back to Embrapa, focusing on fresh fruit and the film using nano-particles that helps to protect them from oxidation. The Embrapa researcher Od\u00edlio Assis explain that in Brazil nearly 50% of fruit are wasted during transportation and storing processes. He claims that this technology would ensure that 80% to 90 % of the crops effectively reach the sellers/consumers. The reporter says that the researchers are already sure about the safety of this anti-aging film for fruit, but they will do further toxicology research on it anyway. The Embraba researcher explains that nanotechnology cannot be understood as a single technology, and mentions that the nature of different particles should be taken into account. In that sense, an organic nano particle is different from a metallic one, he says. At Embrapa, he adds, they deal with natural particles obtained from a corn protein \u2013 so there is nothing to fear about, he suggests.

Read more (and watch the video around 10:10, in portuguese though): http://2020science.org/2010/04/25/found-in-translation-brazilian-nanotechnology-documentary/#ixzz0sDyM0eiz 

11. Modular upcycle lab network to deploy in low-income communities to help them 1) generate income, 2) educate them on upcycle, and 3) educate them on the use of technologies.
-Example is \"FabLab\" from MIT (fabrication lab that uses 3D printers)

12. Redisigning human activities to not produce any waste at all.
-example: We only need 1 cup the entire time we're here.
-business example: Go to Nike with a plan to eliminate their waste (perhaps by renting shoes)

13. Micro-energy generation machines. Use waste on a micro level to create Energy. 

14. Make free cycle go Viral. A website that is the Craigslist of FREE.

15. Waste tracking using nanotech. Putting trackers into all items to see what gets recycle, thrown away, etc. 
-Can also use to find \"offenders\" of waste. Example: Burning packaging supplies? 
-In other words, \"Google\" for waste. Complete transparency on who is creating the waste...

16. Improve waste sorting mechanisms.
-Dividing waste materials, and upcycling them automatically.
-Example: Like coin machines that sort coins, use to support waste.
-Possibility: RFID chips in the waste, and then auto-sorting when it's thrown away.

17. Focus on INDUSTRIAL waste.
-80 percent of the waste is industrial. Focus on the heart of the problem.

18. Robots that go find valuables in current waste sites.

19. Matching waste TRANSPORTATION to needs. Example: Have waste that needs to travel 1,000 miles. A trucker is driving that way empty handed. To save on energy and help transfer the waste, we help connect the transporation (perhaps via a website).
-Deeper idea: Peer-to-peer transfer of anything. 
cross tracking

20. Upcycling information. Making informational industrial processes more efficient (i.e. the storing of information).

21. Start with US. Upcycle/recycle while at SU.
-only use 1 cup
-throw away less
-MEASURE it so we can MANAGE it

22. Using microcredit as an incentive for developing countries to recycle as opposed to simply burning the trash - decreased interest rates? maybe higher loan values?

23. Could we rewire the human brain to want to reallocate and reuse waste? 

24. Or create a social platform that rewards people publically for their reduce and reuse behavior? 

24. Curious what neurological changes we can make to help people feel pain as they make actions to destroy the environment. 

**What waste is out there? -- Critical for generating upcycle ideas**
It seems to me it will be essential to understand in detail what kinds of waste there are, how much of it there is, and where it is. Only then will we truly be able to have the full space of upcycle ideas open to us. Let's try to collect here, or in another etherpad if someone wants, information about this matter as well.
***************************************************************************

for this project drawing of boxes with in's and out's is definitely required....

Idea 1 - Large-scale compost collection and use

Idea 2 - Large-scale re-use of human feces in fertilization

Idea 3 - Electronic Parts

Idea 4 - Plastics

Idea 5 - Creatinase Generation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creatinase

Idea 6 - Urease Generation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urease

Lizzie:
Maybe this is not feasible, but I remember one of the speakers talking about how to burn human waste to generate energy... or how to use human waste to get clean water. This would solve poor sanitation in the developing world as well as providing sustainable ways of generating either energy or water.... 

Justin: Check: https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/student-discussion-pages/human-waste 

I think it is quite feasible - it is simple engineering, it is scalable and the nice thing about using biology is that you engineer it once and everyone can share it for FREE!

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Jul23-Quantified-Self
"Friday
July 23, 2010
9:00 - 12:00 
Quantified Self and Medical Informatics 
Daniel Kraft 

Student Participants:
Bryce Goodman
Chiara Giovenzana
Chiara Turelli
Dhaval Chadha
Diva Tommei
Elizabeth Brook
Emem Andrew
Eugenia Rives
Francesco Galietti
Gary Gautier
James Jacoby
Jorge Fernandez
JulieLynn Wong
Julio Silva
Justin Pahara
Marko Bitenc
Michael Chen
Rosa Chan
Sam Thorp
William Bing

"
http://su-etherpad.com/Jul19TimWilliams
"July 19, 2010
Tim Williams
jhtimwill@gmail.com

Impacting 6 Billion
Slides: http://bit.ly/bMpTd7

University of Georgia

AFLATOXIN CORN + HIV - snergistic effects
http://peanutcrsp.org/home.cfm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aflatoxin
Aflatoxin affects 4.5B people

Synergistic effect of HIV + aflatoxin

toxins that are used in corn (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fumonisin) can increase throat cancer and other health risks - there are tests for this but costs $10 - FDA accepts this and sets an upper limit after testing but in Africa there isn't anyone who will set this limit because of costs

he has developed a 1 cent solution to this problem (salt solution) to combat this. 

if you could fix this problem, 58% (1M infections per year) of HIV infections would be prevented

need to protect against aflatoxin

Heroine addicts tested with Aflatoxin + HIV => 2x progression, not sure about the effect of heroine

When corn leaves some locations, after four days of travel, bad storage + humidity causes aflatoxin contamination

This is an interesting read..

http://www.ipm.iastate.edu/ipm/icm/node/1742/print

http://www.ovpr.uga.edu/news/article/20100610-hiv_corn/

HEAT ENGINES
improve efficiency of internal combustion engine

rearrangement of sterling engine - gets around geometry of cylinders (typical limitations)

only three moving parts, and most likely upper level of possible heat recovery

doubles economy

compensate for lower temperature differential by having lower surface area

Design: Four plates separated by spacer, make whatever length you need, shape at bottom is trapezoid, alternates between covering up sides, creates temperature difference

can heat with anything organic

20-30% efficiency

Geometry of a regular piston, is such that volume changes exponentially - large pistons lowers piston surface area. when you come to a linear arrangement, same transfer of energy, can compensate temperature differential with surface area.

COOL GREEN WATERS
if north was in perpetual summer, CO2 wouldn't be a problem, CO2 reduced 1PPM/month in summer (example of variation, http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/51/Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide-en.svg)

now we are at ~380PPM

oscillates seasonally substantially

oceans are deserts - result of separation of light and nutrients

from space earth is blue - should be green

green water would provide a ton of more food

This is an interesting article also:
http://hubpages.com/hub/What-is-the-role-of-accumulating-ocean-algae-in-global-warming

fossil fuel dependence, nitrogen/phosphorous fertility
floating/suspended farms to combat global warming

algae fuel
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algae_fuel

how would you propose moving the nutrients to the surface...

you'd have to go 1 KM at least to get the nutrients... 

mixing the water

sarah jane:
Q: would we be reducing the sunlight and nutrients that the sealife sees?

you'd do this through time, and we'd have to see as we scale it.

global warming is a real problem, and the light at the end of the tunnel is a train coming toward us.

Q: Sarah Jane: Does this algae choke other marine life? Do we run the risk of making significant environmental damage?

we should try this in a 10,000 sq mile scale and monitor to find out the impact

====

Slides outline:
Impacting 6 Billion
Tim Williams

jhtimwill@gmail.com
Outline
Personal Introduction 
Program Technical Scope
Concepts and Inventions
Goals
Prevent human mycotoxicosis
Increase power efficiency
Green Seas 
Personal Introduction
Geo/Biography
Attributes
System simplification 
Lateral thought
Horizontal rather than vertical
Achievements
My epitaph 
\u201cHe hopes that he still outside the box\u201d
The Peanut Platform
Technical Scope
Plant Science
Soil Sciences
Food Sciences
Nutrition
Environmental Science
Health Sciences- Toxicology Epidemiology 
Engineering
Economics
Policy
Concepts and Inventions
Opportunity #1 Mycotoxicosis 
Insight \u2013 Immunity and nutrition more important than cancer risks 
Aflatoxin affects 4.5 billion people
Reduce risks contributing 43% of the burden of diseases saves potentially 2.5 million lives 
Reduced fumonisin to avoid 1million African HIV infections each year

Opportunity #1 Mycotoxicosis 
Insight \u2013 Immunity and nutrition more important than cancer risks 
Aflatoxin affects 4.5 billion people
Reduce risks contributing 43% of the burden of diseases saves potentially 2.5 million lives 
Reduced fumonisin to avoid 1million African HIV infections each year
Paradigm shift 
Accept contamination \u2013 prevent exposure rather than contamination
Novasil @ \x3c price of salt
Opportunity #2 Heat Engines 
Insight \u201380% of fuel energy is waste
Stirling Engine-based Exhaust Heat Recovery should double fuel economy 
3 moving parts, simple manufacture
Substitute exchange surface area for temperature differential
Concept

Opportunity #3 Cool Green Waters
Insights
IF the northern summer was perpetual CO2 would not be an issue

Opportunity #3 Cool Green Waters
Insights
IF the northern summer was perpetual CO2 would not be an issue
Oceans deserts are the result of separation of light and nutrients
From space the earth is blue, it should be green

\u2018Green Waters\u2019 Solves
Food \u2013 expanded marine life
Fuel \u2013 oil
Fossil fuel dependence
Nitrogen fertility
Phosphorus fertility
Global warming

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-food
"FOOD IDEAS
===

Is it feasible to supplement the artificial light with natural light, collected on rooftops of surrounding buildings, and sent down fiber-optic cables to the plants?
How densely can we pack the plants? What are the limits?
How much would robotic harvesting system cost
How do we know when plants need water or nutrients? (The \"Talking Plant\")

We discussed fiber-optics and artificial light with Lane yesterday - I can share the notes with anybody if interested - maggie
Is anybody interested in in-vitro meat production? YES! Chiara has experience growing tissue for regenerative medicine by the way, though this is slightly different... 
great! i think we should definitely be keeping this in mind along with any vertical farm ambitions...

Grow meat for human consumption

Phosphorus has been mentioned a few times in the food TP, and it reminded me of this interesting infographic from New Scientist of a few years back. Americans consume an UNBELIEVABLE amount of Phosphorus:
http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/ns/cms/mg19426051.200/mg19426051.200-2_600.jpg
The graphic is part of this article, which doesn't appear to be available for free anymore: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19426051.200-earths-natural-wealth-an-audit.html

We will be starting our first SU FARM this weekend -- stay tuned to this etherpad if you are interested in participating. Right now, we are thinking about working on it during any breaks on Saturday and Sunday morning. We are going to grow chives! Does anybody have suggestions? Per our discussion the other day, we were going to start simple this weekend and in the next two weeks get into more complex experiments. Chives take 7 weeks to grow. 

Sell self-contained \"FoodBox.\" This would be a self-contained box that you sell to people, maybe the size of a garden shed, that they place outside their home and plug in the water and electricity and it has enough nutrients to last 1 year. Plants grow inside under artificial light, aeroponically. These would be highly-engineered systems designed to use as little water as possible, and recycle everything possible. Harvested by simple robotics. These would be serviced by a new industry of people that come by your house and replace the nutrient box, so it creates jobs. Maybe eventually it may take waste from the house as a nutrient source. Servicepeople can go inside to fix things, but designed to be as trouble-free as possible so the owner doesn't have to go inside (gardening without getting fingers dirty).

Derek - I'm big on pursuing the FoodBox idea. In addition, the idea of using genetically engineered indicator plants to assess water and nutrient needs is exciting. I've done some reading on in-vitro meat and can talk to that, although I'm not sure it's in the 10^9+ phase yet. The main question on the FoodBox is how we bring the prices down to the level where it can really have broad impact.

Friday July 2 2010
Food and Cities Meeting
Chair - Maggie Jack

1) Omega industries food in vacant spaces (large culdrons for growing veg and food - hydroponics)

2) Recycle human/animal waste for fertilizer in Developing world

3) Turn malls into giant 'greenhouses' (use space that is not currently being tapped)

4) Salt water farms in the Sahara dessert

5) Automated grow rooms (instrumented - see: antarctic growth project) \"salad machine\"

6) Modify an indicator plant that will change color when nutrient deficient or dyhydrated

7) focus on how nanotech/biotech can enhance growth of veg in developing nations (large veg)

8) trade school/school farm in developing world (possibly other trades included as well)

9) DIY hydroponic set for developed or developing world

10) Low cost slum farming - reinforce housing - housing for emerging populations - greenhousing

11) Hydroponic high end restaurant (themed restaurant) raise awareness - build a brand

12) pull together data regarding the available varieties of plants (food) and put it together with climate data. The right plants for the right place - sustainable

13) Dreamy food Fridge

14) in vitro meat

15) aquaponics - growing food fish and hydroponics in a synergistic cycle

--- July 5 2010 ---

Maggie and Derek will alternate note taking
-- we will figure out management as we decide what we will focus on
-- some will build
-- some will work on a larger project
-- determine the scope

2 kinds of ideas:: education/nutrition, how can people eat better
other side is on actual technology

problem statement first or ideas first?

John Hogan - systems engineering perspective - should possibly do a mission statement first

steve: who are we trying to serve? steve thinks that the world is moving towards mega-cities. mega-cities in the developing world and the developed world.

Maggie - need to focus on rapidly growing areas - china, India, etc.

we need to first think about the mission, the market

Rand - developing countries need farms, not necessarily technology

maggie ran through our 15 ideas from brainstorm

problem: trickle down or bottom up??

How would you phrase a mission statement?

mission statement vs. prblem statement

problem statement: State what the problem is.
do we want a broad or more specific problem statement?
Steve: how many people live in mega cities developing nations that are starving?
Rand: Mega cities are not always developed. Mexico City, Manila
Two different ideas: improving food in the developed world or increasing amount of food.
Why is it food for cities and not food?
Steve: People are moving into cities.
zain: why food for cities rather than just food?
robert: mission is to grow food in an urban environment
Robert: Isn't the idea to build food in cities?
80% of population in cities by 2050
Steve: If we make food in cities, it is better for the environment.
Rand: Does anybody know about import/export policies?
Robert: Yes - it is the most tarriffed industry. Developing world can't sell food to the developed world. It is better to avoid the military-industrial-food complex. Monsanto, etc.
Rand: If you look at any average person from a developed country, they will eat too much and have waste. Maybe there is a way to limit food waste? Massive food tax. Prevent people from eating too much. 
Robert: Taking on the food lobby is a nightmare. People starve to death because of our trade policies.
Steve: the pyramid is a product of lobbies. Refined carbohydrates have a bigger place than is needed.

food pyramid is good for fattening a hog!

Rand: What if we become the politicians?
Chris: Let's keep on defining our problem! Everybody speak.

farm lobby is the most powerful lobby in america

Anders: In Denmark, organic food is sold mostly in Copenhagen, the biggest city. The farther away from the city, the fewer organic products you buy. The connection between people and food. 

maggie - would contend that that is due to socioeconomic status. Thinking more fresh foods than strictly organic.

robert: all those foods are coming from the countryside

anders: social problem in developed world. educated and wealthy are eating better foods. could also be a task to educate
Rand: it is much more costly to eat healthy food. should we attack the consumption or production? 
Derek: Production or consumption? I'd rather do production.

Steve: I'd prefer to increase production. Give people economic access to the food. Business model. Just want to help people who are starving.

Nolene: Small businesses that are low cost -- they will make money.
John: Increase income by improving technological aspects to farming.

Rand: Those who are producers might not sell locally...

Sam: There is food but it isn't accessible to all.

Eric: If it is locally controlled, then it is unlikely to be exported when it is needed locally.

Chris: Small-scale farming wouldn't be exported.

John: Growing in peri-urban environments. When we think \"food for cities\" it doesn't have to be in the skyline. We saw glitzy farms. Grow right outside cities.

-- could be the area just outside of the city

Robert: salad machine in the basement

Rand - why not one skyscraper?

Problem statement: 

Zain: Our bodies do not store calories efficiently. Human genetic engineering. 

Steve: Turn off a fat receptor so that we don't gain wait... this could be the future. I want to make food for people who are starving.

Robert: There is a pharmaceutical drug -- we don't have a medical lab. It would require a research lab.

Zain: We could use calories a lot more efficiently. Explore the space. 
Chris: This could be a problem -- human metabolism. 

John: Let all the problem statements come up then we can add analysis later. One of the reasons we brought Christina in is because climate change is going to dramatically change the way we produce food. It will reak havoc on the way that we produce food. This is a future problem. There is a number of different factors. Prepare for climate change.

Robert: Deforestation is caused in part by food production. Urban farming -- more natural habitats. Urban farming could be most important way to take carbon out of the atmosphere.

use food as a solution. carbon credits from food.

Robert: You could get carbon credits for this. It could be more cost effective than a solar-thermal power plant. Avoid oil/coal, avoid deforestation.
Sam: 
John: Biocharge -- biocoal through biomass. Introduces nutrients and quality of soil. Produce biomass not eaten in city and put it back into fields.
Robert: Global greenhouse gases -- agriculture and forestation are a huge percentage (30-40%).

Sam: Dichotomies -- not all of them are mutually exclusive?

Zain: Expensive to eat heatlhy/ inexpensive to eat junk food (with derek and robert)

Robert: lettuce machie that is cheap

Zain: There is a lot of food that is being wasted - we could use that biomass.
Derek: Use that for other things, like aquacycle.
John: Expired food or plate waste.

Zain: People don't know what they are eating

Steve: Calories -- my fitness pal

Rand: I'd like to say something about calories. There is a paper -- how effective is the calorie measure? Not effective. It doesn't take into consideration acids, chewing. Will you burn it the same way as a torch?

Robert: Obesity is a socio-economic issue. Most people who are obese because the only they can afford to eat is to go to McDonald's. As a problem: make healthy food cheaper and more available.

Steve/Robert: make healthy food cheaper and more available.

Little time to think --

John: We still haven't come to a management strategy yet. 

Maggie: Two groups -- physical/policy/business model

Eric: We are asking for a 30 minute presentation and a 5 minute presentation.
Intermediate steps: we are asking for an \"exponential technology report.\" Forces you to consider these other opportunities even if you decide not to pursue them. If you think there is a biotech option but decide not to pursue it, document its status. We don't have a document structure yet. Go to TP-Portal -- list of these requirements and due dates. July 23: Draft due/ outline of opportunities to investigate. August 3: Final plan.
Sam: How broad should this be? All food tech?
Eric: It depends on your interest. How could autmation/sensors apply to this? How could AI apply to this issue? It is meant to be just a survey. You address all these ideas. You don't have to address all of the concerns. Look at all the things that could be changing, and how could that have an effect?
Steve: Availability of outside resources? Could we get their contact info? We should leverage their expertise.
John/Chris: Sure.

Eric: Eric Chairs, the Google chef, wants to help out. Sample different cuisines?

restart after break
Chris: I'm going to Orchard supplies
Derek: We should be building a number of things -- (1) build a garden. Before the end, we can't give 
Rand: We need a month
John: We can start with seedlings
Sam: We can start later if we need to, right?
Rand: I remember reading about a plant affinity. Some plants grow better in some plants rather than others. 
Derek: There are synergetic relationships between plants and mushrooms. 
Chris: high-level organization. what do we want to do? mission statement? timeline?
Zain: timeline
Chris: think about the hardware

Mission statement (draft): We will exponentially grow access to affordable, sustainable and healthy foods.

Rand: we can start culling ideas

John: one product is a systems analysis. we have to be careful not to 

Robert: I don't think we need to target a particular population.
Zain: Production, consumption, access
Robert: Production and access
Robert: The orginal target audiene wasn't the developing world for most major technologies.

Robert: I don't think growing hydroponics in a vertical farm is a workable solution in the developing world right now. luxury

Chris: Top-level production requirements. FIgure out what we need to do.

Rand: shall we find a sequence of problems to work on?

John: Don't forget the ETIR

Rand: M: ust --> less important. 

John: Adding granularity. Requirements: sustainability. subrequirements to make that true?
Chris: Build things, study things, what are you going to do?

Chris: we need to compromise to get a level of consensus. think about the value of the group project.

Robert: 10 weeks: 1 year: 10 years
Zain: vision, commonalities

Robert: health, cost, environmental 
Zain: what are the point of the requirements?

Steve: economically viable or affordable for consumer?r affordable for consumer?

Chris: food production technology? what is the noun?Chris: food production technology? what is the noun?

Rand: how can we make sure that communities that need it?

Chris: the noun is production

John: requirements are shall statements. you system needs to contain these elements.
There are so many ways that you can address these requirements in a different way. We are just trying to get an idea ourselves. A lot of technologies create one problem and create two more. We are t

John: We will hone in on our requirements with time. 
Steve: 10^9
Robert: A bare minimum is that the food must be healthy.
Rand: Maybe more nutritionally full. Healthy is ambiguous.
Steve: \"Feed my starving children.\" Full package. 
Robert: Bare minimum : food can't be bad for people. 
Sam: Are we looking at people who don't have food or people who have bad food?
Robert: Conventional vs. new agriculture. Level 1 requirement: food must be food.
Rand: People do not eat what they should be eating, geographically speaking. People should be eating what they have access to.

Brainstorm new 

John: Dichotomy between report and final product. Capture all ideas that we are not going to move forward with. Get all the great ideas down.

silicon valley startups
patents/research in your area
publications to sign up to
finish 

personal info - resources/other commitments

Scanning food (Sam)
Education (zain)
IT (maggie and anders)
Water/airoponics/aquaponics/hydroponics (rand/derek/nolene)
lettuce machine (derek)
store/restaurant (robert)
vertical farm (steve)
systems: water/overconsumption (trade: robert)

IT ideas: online mel planner that tell ou where to buy groceries, creates a shopping list, gives a schedule for cooking, delivers food, meet up
mobile phone app to get better info about food
global database of nutritional info for foods
fridge that can re-order food

Parts list and some references for aeroponics/hydroponics systems

(assumptions: aeroponics, simple and cheap, able to be expanded with sensors)

large tub, 2 or 3 lids (if they are sold separately, we will likely ruin a couple!)
250-350 gph submersible pump
10-12 feet of 1/2\" white PVC pipe
PVC cement
irrigation system spray heads (6-8)
connectors between pump and PVC
connectors between PVC and spray heads (1/2\" connectors in example, with screw in fittings)
a bucket of hydroponic food (powdered or crystals to supplement water)
hydrogen peroxide (for sterilizing the grow chamber)
a dozen or so slotted grow cups (must have slots to allow roots to come through)
a dozen or so seedlings (ie. lettuce)
some seed for Rand's experiments (??)
a hacksaw to cut the PVC

best, easiest design I've found so far: http://strainreview.com/cheap-and-easy-diy-aeroponics-less-than-30-mins/
another decent one: http://blog.junglin.com/my-homemade-aerogrow-system/
Not a bad idea, but the hose has problems: http://www.jasons-indoor-guide-to-organic-and-hydroponics-gardening.com/homemade-aeroponics-system-2.html
interesting similar design, but nicer looking! http://www.rollitup.org/hydroponics-aeroponics/90747-my-first-aeroponic-design.html

excellent discussion paper on aquaponics: http://www.ca.uky.edu/wkrec/454fs.PDF
interesting supplier of aquaponics systems: https://www.aquaponics.com/contact/

Great start to a sensor network: http://paper.ijcsns.org/07_book/200903/20090332.pdf

decent commercial system: http://www.biocontrols.com/aero6.HTM
very nice review writeup: http://wapedia.mobi/en/Aeroponics
wiki writeup isn't bad either but plainly drew from the same sources: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Aeroponics

Alternative refrigerator ideas

From talking with Ted Selker, I'd like to propose that we consider regrigeration technology as a potential target. Today, the fridge is used in developed countries, but is much less effective in developing countries. Ted gave an example of a village in India that he's visited where they use the fridge at night to make ice to hopefully carry them through the day when the electricity cuts off. I've seen similar situations in rural Mexico where a couple of times a week people have to go several hours to the main markets because there is no power to drive refrigerators. There are a number of technologies to look into:

alternative atmospheres:
this is CO2 atmospheres, or N2, or simply vacuum or oxygen absorbers.

for vegetables, Ted keeps his basil on the counter in a nutrient solution, so never needs to regfrigerate it.

We should think about this in terms of what spoils food, and what we have available to stop those processes.

I think that this ties in well with the salad machine in that if we can grow good food and store good food then we become less dependent on external food. Even in the developed world, refrigeration accounts for a huge portion of an average household's energy needs.

What spoils food:
-bacteria - often oxygen dependent, sometimes anaerobes but more rarely
-fungus - molds, etc. these are generally oxygen-dependent processes (ie: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128061773 )
-overripening - can also be gas-mediated. A CO2 atmosphere, for instance, delays ripening while an atmosphere high in ethylene hastens ripening (this often generates oxygen)
-pests - ants, etc. In puerto rico these were a problem even in the fridge
-nutrient loss - this is primarily a function of age and heat because vitamins are often not the most stable molecules (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050323124809.htm)

What preserves food:
-refrigeration slows bacteria and fungal growth, slow nutrient loss
-lack of oxygen
-competing biological processes (ie. cheese)

ideas:
--bar fridge as a convenient, familiar, easily sealed space
--can generate a vacuum through mechanical means, ie. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpEG0ATylzo
-can remove oxygen via several means:
--oxygen absorbers - generally non-reusable chemical means to absorb O2
--burn it off
--pull it out with a vacuum pump
--replace air with N2 or CO2, but then requires compressed gas delivery ($$)
-dehydration is certainly a possibility, but changes eating patterns too much

JULY 10 2010

Building agenda

Reports

Steve : Vertical Farms
We are a small group. What I think makes sense is to figure out what everyone else is doing. We could partner with some of the other organizations and connect them together. 
Obesity - MyFitness Pal app
Google Chef
-- bring in some other people who have thought about this problem; we need to find the right place that we want to \"play\"
In terms of the vertical farm thing, you aren't super passionate about a vertical farm.
Constructing a building is not that exciting/feasible. There are other groups who are working on this problem.
--Robert: I don't think we should limit ourselves by saying we can't prototype in 10 weeks.

Maggie and Anders: IT and FOOD/NUTRITION/FITNESS

*References and instructions
*cookbooks, online instructions for building hydroponic greenhouses
*Organizations
*People's Grocery
*Direct shopping (boxes)
*Boston organics
*Test and tracking (iphone apps)
*calculators for nutrition: calories, bmi, sugar, blood alcohol
*calculators for exercise: fitness bike, step, run, gym
*Use of social media
*facebook groups for \"local food\" (1800 fans), \"veganism\" (15,000 fans).
*Mobile
*Grocery list generator
*Sixth sense -- TED talk -- red, yellow, green dot for healthiness. ou can also combine with genome -10 to +10 in terms of a good or bad thing to eat.
Our conclusion: Webservices both mobile and PC are still immature. The trends are: Personalization, value change integration and mobile accessibility. The markets are saturated. There is not a comprehensive website but it wouldn't be able to change the food system in a major or \"exponential\" way. We should focus on something else. 

Robert: Red Lazer
Anders: Google goggles
Derek: This is happening faster on the android than on the iPhone
Steve: myfitnesspal.com
Derek: what would we add to it?
Steve: Add functionality, connect to US government, provide more information
Derek: DIY bio: reusable sensor? Glucose sensor are $1/shot. Immediate glucose sensing.
John: Local food database
Robert: Production or consumption? John Deer -- there is a lot of IT for farmers.
Rand: We don't have access to scientific journals. Solution: Robert, 
Robert: The space is made up of \"granola\" tree-hugging local-foods, slow-food, greenpeace movement. It hasn't ben mainstreamed in a meaninful way. Make the slick, modern, up-scale, mainstream version of this as a grocery store/restaurant. 
Steve: Why hasn't it gone mainstream?
Maggie: Apple Store-gone hydroponics restaurant
Robert: It wouldn't address the bottom of the pyramid immediately but would get mainstream investors, research. Slick, cool, trendy.

DEREK ON \"LETTUCE MACHINE\"
It is very feasible to build a small-scale \"lettuce machine.\" We need sensors. It would be for the developed world. It would sync up with the restaurant idea.

Discussion with Ted Selker -- the ways of preserving food that aren't refridgeration based. You lose a lot of nutrients after lettuce is refridgerated. You can keep basil/lettuce in hydroponic. Nitrogen-based or vacuum-based refridgerator. 
Robert: Home Depot -- they are hard to set up, you have to be a specialist to do it. We need to have it for the \"American idiot.\" Elegant solution. 
Derek: We need to have a functional capacity.
Rand: Why are they so expensive? Recycling cups. Intelligent hydroponic system for under $5 per pot.

RAND on HYDROPONICS

Thinking a lot about hydroponics. It is a very cool project. I don't understand where the price is coming from. For individuals, it is still a cool luxury. Why is this a problem to get to developing countries. Fake soil floor in Africa. You can create a farmland wherever you want. 
Sam: I doubt the problem is a lack of arable land. I think the problem is irrigation.
John: They sell disks that are waterless. These are expensive. Nutrients will be needed no matter what.
Robert: If you mass produce these, they would be cheaper.
John: The water issue is more difficult. How do we keep water.
Charlie: We could figure out how to lessen water loss -- build greenhouse.
Sam: NASA has done alot of research already with aeroponics. There is a lot of ingenuity that has already been put out there.
Derek: I'm not sure if we have to be ingenuitive technologically but more
Charlie: Plastic bags-- how are they used?
Nolene: If you increase the humidity, your nutrients can get infected. 
John: Infection is a major problem.
Derek: Outflow of hydroponic system for contamination.
Nolene: Aeroponics doesn't use water. It gives a higher yield. The initial investment is high. If we can decrease. The reason that most places in Africa can't farm is because of a lack of arable land. water
Charlie: What about the land makes it unfarmable?
Rand: How expensive it would be to make a pipe?
Derek: You need to sterilize.

Sam: If we don't work with the water group we won't have any success in developing world.

Nolene: People are dying today in the developing world - we should deal with this now.

Rand: We will still need to implement this in the developing world.

Sam: Do you have numbers on the cost of hydroponic farm?
Derek: Comparison to conventional farming is difficult because we don't have economies of scale. Initially it will cost more.
Sam: In Antigua it costs 35% more than conventional farming.

Sam's Report on Scanning

Sam: Tracking where food came from. Field --> store. Barcodes (2D or 3D, RFID). Companies care about this -- time and temperature tracking, food is getting there in one piece. Freshness, pesticides. 
Steve: RFID: cost?
Sam: At the moment RFID are 75 cents each (April), 15 cent ones are unreliable. Other problems with moisture, etc. 
Derek: really?
Anders: They are using it on the outdoor palet. Not on individual products.
Robert: Even if it was on the product?
Derek: One of the blogs I was reading: barcode reader. 
Sam: Walmart. Conagra tags at the palet level. 'Harvest Mark' - 2D barcode on the produce. nanobarcodes. Opportunity in the space: take information from the consumer database and move that into a place that consumers could access it. Link palet and products so that consumers could get all that information. Will they be willing to share that information? 
Similar idea: Scanning food. Food recognition scanning software by Carnegie Mellon U. Take a photo and it figures out what it is. It could then tell you the life cycle of the food.
Robert: Also, fish molecular scanning.
Sam: CASPIAN - spychips. People do NOT want to be able to track their food. The govt is going to track everything that you are eating. Privacy concern. Insurance/credit card.
Anders: IBM has a goal to make RFID at 1 cent.
Steve: Truth of advertising?
Robert: Smarter Planet @ IBM. RFIDs are a major part of smarter choices.
Anders: Food is stolen and resold? How big is this problem?

List of topics:
(1) Scanning Food
(2) Grow Fridge/iGrow/Salad Machine
(3) Store/Restaurant (High end.. apple store \"vertical\" farm)
(4) obesity management tools
(5) Municipal Vertical Farm

Basis for evaluation:

potential synergies/interconnedness
scope of impact
litmus test/input from existing organization
novelty; are we 'reinventing the wheel'
long-term potential (commercial viability)
incorporates exponential growing technology
environmental/nutritional outcomes (esp. if utilizing GMOs).
tangible, aesthetic deliverables

john.a.hogan@nasa.gov
chris.mckay@nasa.gov

TIMELINE

Challenges Benefits
Dominated by IBM Build on technology, bring it into food sector
Structurally blocked - infrastructure Intelligent Labeling
Minimizing Food Waste

Keep in consideration but not a major focus

Grow Fridge

Challenge Benefits
expense (potential) market opportunity?
market demand? transport; nutritional 
design challenges tangible; high-end gadget
consumer electronics business project in the near term
prototype
refrigeration

Store/Restaurant

Challenge Benefits
Consumer finniky market opportunity
\"attitude changing\" 
is this \"really\" a team project?

Obesity Mgmt Tools

Challenge Benefits

Saturated mkts Incorporate with other health mgmt tools
unclear business plan

Municipal Vertical Farm

Challenge Benefits
Infrastructure project

VOTES

Feedback:
Good group dynamics, good participation, almost 100% 
challenges: time management, schedule management

VOTE

(1) Urban Farming (7)
(a) Grow Fridge (2)
(b) Restaurant/Store (2)
(c) Community-wide product (3)

Task: Research topic of choice and look at the notes on the etherpad

online citation tool: Zotero

******

Maggie's suggested reading list
URBAN AGRICULTURE

I. IV. Michael Pollan (food scholar): The Food Movement, Rising (The New York Review of Books, May 20, 2010)
http://michaelpollan.com/articles-archive/the-food-movement-rising/
Quote: In fact it\u2019s hard to say which comes first: the desire to promote local agriculture or the desire to promote local economies more generally by cutting ties, to whatever degree possible, to the national economic grid.

II. Wendell Berry, a scholar of \u201cagrarianim\u201d
The Agrarian Standard (2002), Orion
http://www.orionmagazine.org/index.php/articles/article/115/
http://www.orionmagazine.org/index.php/articles/article/115/

Interesting quote: \u201cINDUSTRIALISM BEGINS WITH technological invention. But agrarianism begins with givens: land, plants, animals, weather, hunger, and the birthright knowledge of agriculture.\u201d (remember that he is PRO agrarianism)

Concluding paragraph : \u201cIn our time it is useless and probably wrong to suppose that a great many urban people ought to go out into the countryside and become homesteaders or farmers. But it is not useless or wrong to suppose that urban people have agricultural responsibilities that they should try to meet. And in fact this is happening. The agrarian population among us is growing, and by no means is it made up merely of some farmers and some country people. It includes urban gardeners, urban consumers who are buying food from local farmers, consumers who have grown doubtful of the healthfulness, the trustworthiness, and the dependability of the corporate food system\u2014people, in other words, who understand what it means to be landless.\u201d

III. Review of Eating Animals by Jonathan Safran Foer, The New Yorker
http://www.newyorker.com/arts/critics/books/2009/11/09/091109crbo_books_kolbert

IV. A description of a successful urban agriculture project:
http://www.yesmagazine.org/issues/food-for-everyone/growing-power-in-an-urban-food-desert

V. A recent article from Harper's about the \"food bubble\" --> http://www.economics.arawakcity.org/node/618

I\u2019d like to buy these books: 
The Taste for Civilization: Food, Politics, and Civil Society
by Janet A. Flammang
University of Illinois Press, 325 pp., $70.00; $25.00 (paper)

Everything I Want to Do Is Illegal: War Stories from the Local Food Front
by Joel Salatin
Polyface, 338 pp., $23.95 (paper)

All You Can Eat: How Hungry Is America?
by Joel Berg
Seven Stories, 351 pp., $22.95 (paper)

UPDATE: Chris is going to buy these for us.

*****
US citizens will get NASA badges. 
We might need access to:
239: Life Sciences building - John's building/plants/greenhouse on roof
245- space science building. Charlie's building.

Brainstorming ideas:

- Ideas on farming
1. Spiral on the building - things slowly go up the building. Lighting, food, etc needed are very different.
2. Robots for harvesting food (i.e. a tractor) - get rid of the people. Crowdsourcing - picking apples via internet.
3. Microfinance model for food production - market failure. People aren't really getting what they need. Microfinance is not being fully utilised. Microfinance incredibly high return necessary - effectively indentured servitude.
4. Making a farming toolkit to be purchased
5. Smart fridge - already exists in Germany. What if the fridge could tell you about the amount of fat you're eating - source it from different places. Tell it what you want in your fridge. Add a label onto food that the fridge recognises. Currently hard to do - Ted Selker was thinking of some way of inventorising the entire larder.
6. Online recipe site including video - contributing own recipes. But does it have potential?
7. 

Minimum for today: Decide on production vs consumption
- Production of food in a non-traditional, non-urban environment
- On an individual/de-centralised level, or through community-wide production
- Restaurant or store - nobody doing this
- Community-wide production - selling netting for sides for buildings, vertical farming projects.
- Algae farming in cities - 
- Consumption
- Waste of food
- Obesity
- Present food in a certain way - how do you decide 

Urban farming
- Would love to have more information about economics
- But past performance is no indicator of future performance (exponentials)
- New GMO and lighting technologies - difficult to measure
- Do an energy audit - how much energy do we need, how much energy do we have.
- Really want to be more convinced.

Planning - explore the urban farming, follow where it leads, if it becomes a dead end we need to be ready to start something else.

Idea: edible packaging
- Removal of waste through edible packaging
http://www.foodproductiondaily.com/Packaging/Edible-packaging-seen-as-next-wave-of-innovation
http://www-foodsci.ucdavis.edu/people/faculty/jkrochta

What's our Mission/problem statement: 
- First, define the problem space.
- What is the best (most viable) method of growing food in an urban environment
- What is the best scale to do it at. 
- Second, prototype - start designing it, start getting it together.
- Then iterate the prototype - experiment.
- Define what is the 

- Greenhouse is a parallel process - just some way to get our heads
- Also excellent to have a tangible product

How to research
- Reading on the project
- Focus group in an urban environment - talk to people at the urban grocery
- Ask them what they need.
- 'How much more would you be willing to spend for food'
- Ask people in Oakland where they get their food, how they eat it, etc.

Total budget: $8,000
Working budget: $2,000

Break into work teams - people who work on
1. Greenhouse (Derek/Rand)
2. Focus groups, consumer research / Identify resources and local organisations 
(Maggie /Zain)
3. Technology side - scale and tech (Robert/Sam)
4. Microfinance/rollout to neediest/finance/cost barriers (Steve/Anders)

SCRUM - concept of putting to-do lists on post-its. Standing meetings every few hours on post-its.

To Do:
- Wednesday is research day: each of the teams work on their particular projects

JULY 14

Lauren on ETIR -- why each section is important
don't do work that isn't necessary
maximize energy; the next logical step
ETIR (1) opportunity to explore the problem space in a way that makes sense, top level scope, developing more detailed problem statements, identifying solution space, set of specific problems and having solutions that are reasonable to apply to it, everything you need to do to write your detailed plan, reasonable amount of due diligence to make sure that our problem space is the right one, find additional technologies to make sure it is the right problem space

Part I: Common Language -- familiar enough to figure out what the problem is
Part II: Problem space itself -- specific question: what is (or what are) the real challenge(s)?
what are the important ways to approach it: urban vs. rural; developed vs. developing
III: (parallel to II) figuring out what possible solutions are? How does the solution apply to the problem space? Capture that information. Right down every single solution. Description, links, who is developing?, time til availability, legal issues. 

Matrix 2: Connect problem to solutions -- make it better ordered by breaking it into tracks
some solutions will not fit into any tracks
can we come up with something really interesting because nobody has considered it before?

IV: Data analysis - 
problem: crop variety
problem: production rates
solution: nanocore filtration
biotech: genetic engineering

V: Data mining: take a look at the most interesting solutions. 1-20 intersecting opportunities
Understand the scope of the problem
roll-out
mash up
new technology that is missing
plan 0.1 
three, four, five problem spaces -- tight problem space

ETIR: 0.1 - 1.0 - 1.1
Problems: 90%-99%-100% 
Solutions 30%-90%-100%
Plan (paragraph) N/A-100%-N/A

Requirements for greenhouse

Brainstorm our problem space 

JULY 19 2010

Tim Williams

\"agriculture\" in the broad sense
environment -- food consequences

personal history
developmnt insights and perspectives
health opportunities
environment opportunities
transport fuel efficiencies
hopes and fears

developed 2%
developing world agriculture - 60,70,80% of the agriculture

personal history
horizontal across a consumer item
worked in zimbabwe, india, niger, usa
pathology of plants, photoperiod effects
instruments that measure environments
reverse engineering
working for fundamentally small farmers -- challenges that small farmers have
15 yo came to the USA and started working for UGA. funded by USAID.
scientists in developing countries and counterparts in USA. look to develop technologies, human capacity. mutually beneficial
(question: what do scientists from USA \"get\")
goal:
change world health through major disease brought by toxins in food, 43% of the burden of disease in a toxin in many foods
transportation fuel economy
simplify complex processes -- design process

reveratrol
aflatoxicosis
corn-HIV
school feeding -- have schools buy locally. get a whole lot of things to happen. in guyana. now all that moves inland is the money. the produce is captured in that environment.
vaccin delivery without the cold chain
global warming through farming seeds

opportunity to use the properties of peanuts to capture vaccines without the coldness.

invented a heat engine that will run on any heat source. it will provide a way to grow crops or whatever
heat approaches to organic weed control -- one of the reasons that slash and burn is an establishd technology. it's the only way that you will grow anything in those environments.

in africa the biggest control for what they can produce is the extent to which women can weed

ocean fertility

CO2 sequestration
whole lot of investment in the area of the algae -- sequestering CO2
Problems of coral and global warmning - as the seeds get warm , oxygen solubility goes down, as soon as you put oxygen in it, death. pump cold water into the surf zone to oxygenate it, save coral. only a question of scale before you can manage a hurricane, world's weather. 

development insights
technology treadmills, margins and scale
as soon as other people get into the technology treadmill, they work harder and harder to stay in the same position
we've got probably 20% of the population in th rural areas that were there 50 years ago
the output of that in a devloping world would be catastrophic
technology does not solve problems
people very quickly work out that although they've got a bigger yield, they didn't make a whole lot more and they did a lot more work

fertility -- phosphorous, etc -- put into the river, exported to the sea
make it less linear - important, necessary for sustainability
rand: how could you make it less linear?

phosphorous from mines in the developed world.
in a place like africa, the phosphorous is depleted. you can see the historic migration of the village depending on mineral stores.
could we replenish phosphorous?
if we separate the urine stream from the fecal stream, we could do it.
next opportunity: if you were to grow algae with a multiple array of endpoints, you would absorb all of the nutrients in the water, you could have the water in the sea to be as good as the water coming off the mountain. algae -- separate oil -- ferment the rest. end up with a potential of a fertilizer.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algaculture

why isn't it being done?
people are starving. we need some fuel. we cold take the proteins out of the algae and have the proteins out of that. at some point, we need to achieve/maintain their fertility.

native american: tie corn bundle to fish -- phosophorous and nitrogen
market pull v production push -- how do you create demand for quality foods
food relationships with disease -- corn + HIV (0.65), potato + a lot of unhealthy things

everyone needs subsidies... developing countries cannot afford subsidies for agriculture. can they afford not to?
oceans or deserts? where the light is is not where the minerals are. way to activate the deep well into the ocean to take nutrint rich deep water, to move it slowly to the top. bring those nutrients up. if we can do that, we could address the carbon dioxide and produce infinite quantities of sea foods. mor seafood coud be available.
(quesiton about \"rural equity\" -- food for cities? )

you can't stop the transport of food 
social marketing to make these changes
school feeding program - having demonstrated. international food and agricultural development, UNICEF, etc -- taking our model. doing the same thing in other palces. create demand through educational models. insist that it is created locally. the ability to control quality biological contaminants, toxins. clean water problem?
cup with sour milk used to feed babies covered with flies. but they still survive.
our common preception of afrotoxins
in developing countries, every person has biomarkers.
we don't see hug levels of liver cancer because people are dying from other purposes
it is supressing immunit and repressing nutritional value
reflected in infectious disease

more underweight children
more and faster HIV, more diarrheas from unsafe water
vitamin A, zinc, iron
we can save it for 60 or 70 cents / year by connecting clay
it absorbs these toxins very carefully

persistence ----!!!! in the developing world. change not just the road but the people.

health opportunities: particularly effective
peanuts: heart health, obesity, diabetes, resveratrol, school feeding
aflatoxicosis -- can be high levels in peanuts. walnuts, cashews, hazelnuts are all able to have high levels. addressing that is a really important thing.
used in famine-relief with children who are accutely malnourished -- lots of publicity
20% effective
anybody who deals with any of these products are going to have to handle that.
if ou can sell your peanuts that are toxin-free, then you can sell the quality of school.
poor people don't ay a whole lot of attention to quality of food. concerned about NOW and not the future.

afrotoxic exposure and other diseases - relationship?
corn is the biggest source of aflatoxin

the tolerances are based on cancer -- the amounts allowed before cancer? what about with immunosupprssion. small amount everyday for ten years is the same as the same amount in a small amount of time.
take out into the developing world the toxin-binding qualities of these clays. we are allowed to have a certain amount of aflotoxin in our foods. it is very assymetric in crops. one seed will contain 90% of aflotoxin. having a protection against that makes good sense. 
in animal feed, they use the clays already because it costs so little. 

environemnt opportnities
fresh water quality - control of fish
climate management
coral preservation
transportation fuels - grow instead of dig (biofuel)
tied to all of this is global warming
we can reasonably take CO2 to pre-industrial levls if we address sea fertility
why one wouldn't want to do that amazes me. the known: we are in a bad place.
another huge oppotunity: take a large part of australia. 
Security is a big issue for urban farming, how do we secure the food from theft. 

urban farming -- why isn't it happening?
margins -- people can make and transport food cheaply
this is starting to happen. people want it. not a whole lot of people yet; the people can afford. the rejection of the person who is well-fed.
another problem: the security issue

algae -- why isn't it being done already?

idea: take the stream down the river into the dam and get it to be a contained part of the lake and when it had absorbed the nutrients and grown you would then pull it out and separate it. 
rand: it would be so easy!
john: it is just developing the infrastructure. shallow waste, horse waste. you want specific species. contamination is a huge issue. if you are trying to get oil, bubble CO2 into it. extracting algae out of the water is challenging. energy to filter it out. get all of those parasitic loads working together.

in sunnyvale you can do it because they have a lot of land and the right water.
costs to separate fecal waste and urine. 

80% of the carbon footprint of corn is nitrogen fertilizer

use nanotech to quantify food value -- separate out contaminated grains

the area of nanotech

hydroponics become more feasible as you go to scale
there might be an optimum point
the $40 tomato

British guy -- Jamie Oliver for the school kitchens
do it through the big stick of the government?
create the market
that's the margin
cost of production is not nearly as variable as returns
driven by overproduction in certain areas
can we use corn for something else?

the price point of everything will go up?

how much more expensive could it be?
what's the scale that 

we are spending just a few percent of GDP on food
in Europe they spend a lot more
people are going to have to give up something else to do this; food will have to be a more valuable part of their lives
we got used to dirt cheap food just as we got used to dirt cheap gasoline
the message is getting out: 
the true cost of food is the cost of sustainable food
can we get carbon credits for food production?
which of the foods can the most easily take the higher price?
not the staple foods
high value

July 22 2010

Goal: Urban Farming (for 1 bn in 10 yrs)
Mechanism: \"Prius\" of Urban Farming 
(1) Doesn't solve all problems 
(2) Economically available to some
(3) Important Tech. step
(4) \"Market-Maker\" - started the revoluiton

(A) Behavioral/Social (\"What needs to change for consumers?\")
6 months:
Market Study, Buzz, Awarenes Building, PR
Local community
\"Viral\"
cool, do-no-harm, do-no-worse

1 year

Early adopters
(1) Willing to pay $$
(2) \"allies\" - happy to test
better for environment and health

5 years

\"Mainstream\" Adoption/custmers/awareness

10 years

Competitors, industry built out, pervasive urban farming

B Technology/Production
(What needs to change @ the product/ manufacturing level?)

6 months:

Working prototype
single species
specialty, costly produce that uses the most food miles

1 year

product for sale
5-10 species

5 years
product @ scale
price differential lower
reliable, quality assured
many species
reasonable cost competition

10 years

cheap artificial lighting?
new tech

(C) REGULATION/POLICY
(\"What needs to change in the broader environment)

6 months:

governmnt government as customer?

1 year

regulatory support/approval

5 years

positive susid (tax credit, govt aid for urban farming)

10 years

widespread changes to food policy
change to food AID and relief

"
http://su-etherpad.com/sfmarathon
"San Francisco Marathon
http://www.thesfmarathon.com/
Sunday, July 25th, 2010

We need a FINAL count of participants to determine how Singularity University will sponsor some of the cost of the SU students running the San Francisco Marathon.

Please write you name in the appropriate category, or erase your name if you have changed your mind, or not willing to pay up-front (or borrow the money:-)

Full Marathon ($145):
Eric Ezechieli - $145 (415) 867.7166 and Wife Anna (650) 426.8587

Second Half Marathon ($120): (The First Half Marathon is already sold out, unfortunately)
Diva Tommei - $120 (650) 276.9355
Erez Livneh - $120 (972-54) 590.5623
Lizzie Brook - $XXX (786) 303.5282
Mercy Njima - $120 (650) 669 5487

5K ($35): (Exploratorium + Golden Gate + Finish Line)
Jose Cordeiro - $35 (650) 229.4949
John Graves - $35 (650) 417.4149
Javier Mares - $XX (415) 324.9893
David Roberts - $35 (415) 215.5840
Juan Carlos L\u00f3pez - $35
Erika Anderson - $35 (208) 219.2631
Alison Lewis - $35 (646) 894.0809
Julielynn Wong - $35 (412) 841.5825
Aaron Kemmer - $XX (727) 403.9763
Matt Kern - $35 (203) 216.0352
San Ko - $35 (614) 736.6321
Candice Berezan - $35 (780) 906.0539
Sarah Jane Pell - $XX (61-41) 571.1717
Chiara Turelli - $35 (415) 623.4781

Available Cars:
Erika Anderson (5 people) (208) 219.2631
David Roberts (5 people) (415) 215.5840
Eric Ezechieli (5 people) (415) 867.7166
Gary (???) (408) 218.0347
Bryce Goodman (???) (310) 740.8400
Robert Dening (???) (203) 326.0764
Francesco Galietti (???) 393386514493
Derek Jacoby (???) (206) 465.1903
Gettaraound Car (???)

Possible Sponsors:
Singularity University
Your company (???)
My company (???)
\x3center names here>

Training:
\x3cErez: I prefer to run at evenings/night>
Matt: afternoons
Eric: early mornings (5.30 onwards, pls contact me if you want to go together)
Alison: Run early evenings (before dinner if possible)
\x3center names here>

No training:
Jose
Alison (lol) 
\x3center names here>

Leader(s) of this new SU student tradition for 2010:
Jose (provisional until student(s) pick up the leardership)
\x3center names here>

"
http://su-etherpad.com/tp-ideas-energy
"ENERGY IDEAS
===

General/big picture ideas, what are we trying to solve??
1. Provide access to energy for everyone in their homes

2. Focus on renewable sources

How are we going to get there?

Idea 1 - Wind
******************************************************************************************
Jet stream - (Has the advantage of \"wind power anywhere\")
LIghtweight small wind generators for the home.

Idea 2 - \"Hibernate\"/\"Stand-by\" state on everything, not just computers
******************************************************************************************

Idea 3 - Aritifical Intelligence House
******************************************************************************************

Idea 4 - Microscale
******************************************************************************************
microturbines

Idea 5 - Solar
******************************************************************************************
Space-based solar power
Frames for rooftops to hold Easily replaceable solar cell grids (since they improve over time). 

Idea 6 - Green house
******************************************************************************************
Regarding energy for the home: all the buildings in this database are ZERO energy
http://www.passivhausprojekte.de/projekte.php?search=2

Idea 7 - Electric 
******************************************************************************************
Electric motorcycles (more efficient than electric cars) recharged by a home solar/wind powered source, two batteries one for the bike, one that's recharging.

Electric powered, temperature sensitive, sunshades to help save energy with heating/cooling.

Very cheap electric usage sensors that can be placed on fridges, clothes dryers, dishwashers to wirelessly provide data to a PC program so you can monitor and adjust your usage.

Idea 8 - Movement
********************************************************************************************
Charging your cell phone while you are walking is a proven technology. I have ever seen a demonstration. The charger is like a wrist-watch with moving parts on it. When you walk, the relative movement of the moving parts generate a magnetic field that can be converted into electricity.

Idea 9 - Tidal energy
********************************************************************************************
Improving underwater turbines, especially to better fit river tides.

Idea 10 - Lightning
********************************************************************************************
*Is it possible to capture any energy from lightning? On average 1 Terra Watt / Bolt 
*DIY Lantern https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/tp10/tp-3-home-energy/tp-energy-discussion-wiki/diy-lantern
*

6/28/2010

WHY
1. climate change 3
2. supporting prosperity
2. energy security
3. business opportunity
4. energy = food
5. everything relies on energy, it defines our culture 5
6. both pervasive and indispensable
7. inefficiency in distrubution 4
8. key to education
9. required in water problem 2
10. required in upcycling
11. no life without it
12. everyone has a right to it
13. urgent 2
14. materials
15. key to evolution
16. to improve the quality of life
17. to eliminate power lines, beautify world
18. new markets and jobs
19. cheap energy creates problems (political, environmental) 2
20. drives innovation
21. some applications today will need more energy tomorrow
22. energy abundance disrupts the social tissue (you do not need to cooperate with others because energy substitutes cooperation and sharing)

WHAT
1. Efficiency of the energy we already have
2. Utilize bio waste, batteries use redox reaction bacteria can digest waste to generate electricty
3. DIY portable devices (solar, wind)
4. power managing sun shades
5. smart grids
6. stand alone system 2
7. bio-engineering algae to be more efficient solar cells
8. smart grids, storage and distribution
9. space based solar
10. underwater turbines
11. mobile apps for energy comsumption awareness
12. project with DIY windmills manufacturing/distribution combined with open source methods so they can use local materials
13. capture energy from lightning
14. saving oil is cheaper than buying it (saving one barrel of oil costs less than 30$ https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B0MS_U4P-uk9MDJhYjBmY2YtYjcxMi00ZDhlLTliZmEtNDM2MThhZjAxOTkx&hl=en )
15. use freefall force
16. alternative energy storage
17. having cars on the grid that can share the extra battery power when they are parked (smart grid for cars)
18. factor 4 engineering - provides services you need using 4 times less energy
19. educate decision makers
20. north american magnet train (??)
21. using cadavers to generate electricty
22. mandatory treadmill exercise
23. drill down to access geothermal
24. micro-turbines, tine engines to charge batteries (size of pencil erasers) runs on fuel
25. off shore micro nuclear power on abandoned oil tanker
26. mammalian muscle to act as a power source, create horse legs that run on food
27. thorium (?) research
28. Use vacuum force, space atmosphere
29. reduce the price on the final consumer end
30. use motion of any moving object
31. height potential battery, push something up when you have extra energy
32. reengineer our bodies to use less energy
33. turn wireless signals back into energy
34. capture energy in wheater system, hurricanes and hurricanes
35. energy trading, using profit to R&D
36. new laws
37. better battery technology
38. move towards globalizing energy distribution
39. ambient heat capture through thermoelectrics or stirling engine
40. capturing energy from sound waves
41. hybrid plant-animal cells w/ both chloroplasts and mitochondria that can convert light to sugar to energy

POSSIBLE CATEGORIES of WHAT
1. Production on Micro-scale (local, DIY)
2. Production on Macro-scale (Systems, grid)
3. Transfer & Storage
4. Policy

"
http://su-etherpad.com/unconf-Session-C
"Bioelectronics and biosensing
Justin

Meter read glucose
Patent reads glucose level on meter 
dry coating of an enzyme 
Patients adds drop of blood then inserts slide into meter

Sony bio-battery

Bioelectronic device strategies
bioelectronics
1) mediated whole organism
2) mediated enzyme only
3) direct electron transfer - enzyme only

soft-matter and solid-state
protein engineering problem:
1. can electrons pass freely between the catalytic cofactor and the electrode surface
electro engineering problem
2 can the electrode be trailered to bind proteins and remain conductive

protein are wires but mostly insulators

DNA photolyase --> repairs DNA in your body

The poly-peptide problem

Electrode design and engineering

Electrode-histidine tag ineraction
ZnO nanowire/histidine-tag binding

2:00 Religion 

Defining religion - google sorts results based on popularity and most of search results bring you to wikipedia. How do we use wikipedia? What does this mean?

Clay Sharky (?) Harvard discusses this

Daniel Pink, Drive - surprising truth about what motitvates us - people want to et better at what they do so they share - people get paid for technically sophisticaed things for work but then after work they do even more! why? because of the desire of mastery

The Success of Open Source - Steven Weber - it's advantageous to give away more and more. People who use Wikipedia but don't pay for it - they give feedback, ideas etc....

Unchecked positive feedback loop to drive human intelligence

Open Allure - John's work - conversational open-source system. The content is collaborative, like in wikipedia

What we find in Wikipedia at anytime is an open project- like unitarianism. 

Search for truth or purpose or other things (even in multiple languages) still links to Wikipedia - suggests unitarian principles

Only a tiny fraction of actual users actually edit pages - 99-1 rule - 90% is audience, 9% editors, 1% creators

How does Wikipedia work? WHat is future

Wikipedia has five principles, encyclopedia, neutral view, free content for anyone, respect, no firm rules beyond rules.... unitarianism is customized

What do unitarianists believe, free and open search for meaning - acceptance of one another. 

Two additional pillars of unitarianism
Justice
Conntiveness

Sam Harris TED Talk - relationship between science and human values
questions about right/wrong aren't questions of science.... separation of facts and values... no description of science that can explain the way science aught to be... why is it that we don't have moral obligations to rocks? is it because we believe they are potentially exposed to a greater experience of emotions? 
we know it's possible to live in a failed state and to move on this continuum. we know there are right and wrong ways to move aroudn this space? is it a good idea to add cholera to the water? probably not...

this makes wikipedia look very similar to unitarianism.... humanity at a whole is learning so much so fast, even experts can't keep up. information management systems are being developed but for a while we will be overwhelemed

Q: was anyone at Sam Harris talk, what was crowd's reaction?

2:28
How Energy will fix Space
and Space will fix Energy
Jason

77% expect a business out of Space TP
My argument:
Energy is essential for survival.
All the team projects depend on energy somewhat

4:18 Connor
World's most valuable resource attention
Connor's been owrking on augmenting for the last 7 years
[Uses phone to demostrate the point of interuptions]
A pen is a tool that never interupts you
Tech now xbox, biosensor, phone, computer all vying for your attention, trying to monopolize your attention

Maybe I was working on saving the planet and now I'm distracted and won't get back to that thought for another month

Eye contact imples attention, with eye contact 80% of the time you are either talking or listening
If you gave a lecture with back to the crowd it would be weird, yet our computer does that constantly
Brains are designed to be attracted to eyes and concentric circles (peacocks)

Use gestures, body orientation and eye contact to imply attention

4:45 Derek
Quantified Self
Test results and doctor visists are snap shots that don't track your health progress
Bought Spectrophotometer
Uricase is tied to a dye in a redox reaction
UA Sure, Blood Uric Acid Monitoring System

Experiments in biphasic and polyphasic sleep cycles
DIY EEG, was finicky
Zeo, your personal sleep monitor, deep sleep didn't change despite hour of sleep difference
Sometimes you think your aweake but it says your sleeping, perhaps a dream of lying down awake

5:49 PM
Carlos Azevedo
Natural Computation

OK guys. Actually I had not prepared when Salim asked us. I have some materials in Portuguese to give you an overview - including biologically inspired algorithms.
Quantum computation.
Maybe next Saturday, overview in more depth.
So, came here to give you overview of background.
Get you guys to know me better.
OK, area of research is in Natural Computation

[Slide: computations observed in Nature]
David Deutsch - quantum computation
Pioneer in field. Been in contact with him over last 3 years.
I empathize some of his views - philisophical aspects.
I will show you email we have exchanged in which he explains
physical / computational models.

Lecture by Deutsch:
parallels -
Computation Physics
Computer Physical System
Computation Motion
Input Final state

[music comes from other room ...]

[long quote from e-mail]

Slide: Evolutionary Algorithms
Population - Parents - Offspring.
Derive new models that might be more efficient.

Used for Satellite Structure Design.

Q: Program. Called \"Critical.\"
First AI that builds its own. Writes its own code.
Expert system.
This program just starts writing from zero.
Based on Darwinian process.
Best at the moment
Try pack-o-mania (?)
50-60 people were doing this. Now done by computer.
[LINK HERE]

Genetic programming.

Q: Autorecursive. While running, changing its own code. This is new.

Q: Evolution. Humans in space. Result of stochastic optimization.
We evolved from universe.
Is evolution is a stochastic optimization?

Yes. DD has a theory of universal theory of everything. 
Universal evolution.
Richard Dawkins from Oxford.

If we are here, it was one of the paths that evolution took to get us here.
So yes, I agree with you.

Q: David Dell: Digital computation versus analog nature?

That's a trick question. If I understand correctly, ...

Stephen Wolform - simple rules. 
Very basic units of information.
Universe is digital.

Q: Are there similarities running these simulations across products?

Evo Optimization is general problem solving tool.

6:15 Out in main room.
Salim: Bunch of little admin things. 3/4 of class here.
Thank you to moderators.
Scrap all lectures and just have sessions together.

Q too parallel
Q 3 max
KKauser: liked 5 at a time
Q: have another one
Q: List of who presented what. We can leave the board up.
Salim: mail out photo of board
Q: Upload powerpoints.

Now you can run it yourselves. You don't need us. Best structure we have found for skills transfer.

Lots of chances to have casual conversations.
Carve out 3 hours. Light infrastructure.

David: Should have had lunch in this building somehow.
Salim: Yes

6

"
http://su-etherpad.com/unconf-Jul17-Ignite-Atrium
"Saturday
7/17/2010
Ignite Talks
Building 20
Atrium

==Atrium / Ken / PC / PPT==
candice berezan
hind ahmed
claudia olsson
aaron kemmer
julio valdivia-silva
sam thorp
valentina margaria
vincent daranyi
carlos azevedo
zain jaffer
gary gautier
jan jungclaus
william bing
juan martinez-barea
bryce goodman
nolene naidu
david hutchison
kidist zeleke
jason dunn
juan lopez
mercy njima
connor dickie
david dalrymple
kristen santerian
marko bitenc

"
http://su-etherpad.com/unconf-Jul17-583C-Main-Afternoon
"2:34 ... just got on

Davidad
we do not have Merkle 5000 yet.
So, what do we have to organize things at small scales.
Engineer whatever shape you want.
Surely we can organize - DNA or nanotubes
Heat problem
Surface area and the volume are not well matched.
With standard NAND logic.
Fewer bits out than you put in
With reversible logic as you put in
Destroy the bits you don't want
Decentralize 
leads to propagation based software
We have every piece of data in your computation
So, summary, a song
\"Computer technology
oh no
a paradigm shift
To build AI
the exponential trend 
will be supported
by bio and nano
work together to make this soon.

David A: See more of your face, great.
Dan: One sentance summary? Future of

Sung from the back -
Sung from the front -

Eric: New opera in Italy.
Dan: You've left the faculty speechless.

2:39 Marko
Medicines by exponential technologies
5-6 medicines
We take them.
OK.
Downside
Adverse drug reaction
High cost, lower efficiency.
100,000 people die in the US.
Why - not enough information. Solution - technology.
So, basically, use proteomics
One size fits all
Especially in 2010.
Not including genetic.
Biochem data
Design intelligent IPC
Especially drug/gene interactions.
5-7 medications cause problems.
What is the solution - optimal dosing.
Print a boli? pill
Holds 7 pills.
Printer which can do biochemical systhesis and analysis.
Merge many things into one. Will increase efficiency.
Go to pharmacy.
Works better.
One pill.
Lower cost.
Spend the money on something more useful
Five years from now
Home.
Wireless connection to doctor.
Print all vitamins, in our bread/tea.
Get low on cartridges, can refill.
E-Bay, get supplements.

Benefits, real time biochem analysis.
Peak performance whole day.
Minerals, antidotes printed.
1 pill instead of 5
Basically better performance.
Brainstorming now.
If anybody has an idea, I'll be really happy if you join us.
A new era coming.
Thank you.

2:44

Brad: Recreational uses of this printer. 
Marko: What do you mean?
Ralph: Heroin?
Marko: You can do it.
So, you can ask Daniel. He gave me a lot of literature for it.

Dan: If everybody can print own antibiotics, get antibiotic resistance.
Point about use.
Marko: This is true. Go from supplements on market - granules. 
Ways to get over these troubles. Needs more ideas.

David Dell: Possible in-between steps.
Personal dispensing system. 20 tubes into a pill.

Marko: We know where we want to go. 
How we will get there.
Brad: You looked at us. You were better at that. Try for eye contact.

Dan: We need just a moment. Our original group is done.
Salim is occupied.

2:47
Emem:
- 1st and 6th protocol
World came together to address needs
Minimum goals
If they just take 2, will go a long way
Poverty
AIDS
Map - people living on $2 per day.
Target 6 B By 2010 HIV AIDS treatment.
Another target, come down to 20%
People living on less than $1 per day.
Only 42% of people having it.
WHO predicts death.
Maybe 700,000 in 2030
One little girl still smiling.
People at SU learning that technology moving to Africa
By 2030, only 20% in sub sahara will be 
Energy - then water
Finance - getting money into the hands of the people
Microfinance - roll back poverty.
Education will increase.
Productivity will improve.
By 2020, platforms for money
With electronics, do not need cash.
Nigeria 4 1 9 Be duped.
Poverty line rolled back.
by 2020 smart phones ubiquitious
Medical people will be able to understand this is better.
Personalized HIV treament.
Ensure you are healthy
By 2015, regenerative cells.
Be able to adopt system
By 2025 - HIV Type 1 and 2 eliminated.
Only vaccinate if needed.
I believe that
1st and 6th, people living on less that $5 / day. HIV not dread.
Thank you .
That is my emini is smiling.

---
John Graves:
Slides: http://bit.ly/bH6FmZ
For the next 5 minutes, let each 15 seconds represent one year and a doubling of the capabilities of human/computer interfaces. We begin with the capabilities we have today, shown by the large circle on this graph. As we look into the future, our current capabilities will always be represented by the circle in the lower left corner. Don't think of this circle as \"shrinking\" -- think of it instead as a constant yardstick, like a legend on a map viewed from further and further away. We will be moving further away in time, rather than space, so the largest circle will always represent the extent of our future capabilities relative to the present.

Note that what we already have today fills our senses and stretches our capacity to absorb stimulation. Yet after just a few years the combined capabilities of the mouse and keyboard, of the touch screen and the mobile phone, of CD-quality sound, digital high definition television and 3D animated movies begin to pale in comparison to the interactions of the future.

What will these interactions be like? Some trends are clear. The technology becomes 

more transparent and our use of it more natural. Devices grow smaller. Sounds and images become ever more realistic. We use technology to transcend limits of space and time, projecting ourselves and our actions across great distances and gathering insights and information more rapidly than ever before. 

This spreading and extension of who and where we are, of how and when we observe and experience the world through technology, will have profound consequences. Skype and streaming video already let us shrink the world into a laptop. As we approach 10 doublings of our current capabilities, these applications may seem trivial, just as we look back on a groundbreaking consumer electronics product like the Sony Walkman as something trivial today. We should expect to be humbled and amazed by the transformations ahead. 

Human/computer interaction can be viewed as a mediated form of human to human interaction, like literature, or before that art. The breadth and depth of the messages we convey through technology will continue to expand until they reach the limits of our perception. We may already be close to limits in our ability to hear with high fidelity 3D sound systems. Imagine when we have a similar level of fidelity in controling what we see. Imagine when we can feel the heat and cold, the textures and pressures of a virtualized world. We should expect to be moved and motivated by these new forms of shared human experience.

Look at the relative scale of these exponentially growing capabilities after 15 doublings.

The path of development to this longer horizon reveals how relatively little we must know today, and how some fringe ideas like direct mind/machine interfaces might gestate and develop for years before taking over and transforming the mainstream. 

But as we move into the final years of a 20 year projection, we see our current state of knowledge and capability dwindle to insignificance. Clearly something truly momentous -- a singularity -- is in store within our lifetimes, even if we can barely imagine what it will be like today. Computers that absorb and distribute and reorganize our thoughts. Systems that process our physical bodies as information. A synthesis and transcendance of natural and artificial life. New technologies we cannot foresee which won't appear for a decade yet. They'll change everything. We should expect lots of change. And then accelerating change.

Yet observe from this graph how the largest circle on this exponential future path is always where we are at that point in time. At that point in time, it is the status quo. This world of awesome, moving, accelerating change is the world we will create and live in. We should plan and expect to be proud of it.

Finally, shift the perspective on this graph from the future of human/computer interaction to the origin of life -- YOUR life. We all started from the union of two cells into one. That tiny cell doubled and doubled and doubled again over many months. Do not doubt the power of exponential growth, because you are born of it.

When you consider our transition from matter to mind, we are
\u2013 each of us \u2013 
a Singularity. 

Brad: Positive and negative. Break out of Powerpoint mode - good.
Unlikely to see doubling of human/computer interface capabilities - still using mouse and keyboard.
Dan: Be specific.
Tell about open allure.
JG: Thanks for asking. An on-ramp to AI. Talking to each other through the technology, then with the technology.
David: Don't read.
Salim: You are wearing at tie!

3:07 Alex:
- The Story of Real Estate
Who?
What?
Where?
When?
Why?
How - a little H. Nobody every hurt.

Nice species.
Owned all - including the ladies
Kind of disappeared.
100,000s of years.
Humans arrived.
The Real Estate Industry baby
Developed world $46 T residentia.
Commercial property $40 T

Piece Dumb and Dumber
6% commision is dead
why?
You will see in a second [laugh]
Instantly have access.
More, smarter, AI tell about area.
When any owner of a business can see what is available.
Develop more intelligent realtors.
Retina AI.
Not have to leave home.
Simulate the site seeing, pass through a floor that will move around you.
Social network, what is popular.
What areas most important.
Happier cities
Greener people [laughter]
Contest for naked girl friends. couple of my ex-girlfriends. 
[much laughter and applause]
3:12

Ralph: Alriiiight. Excellent. What was that conclusion again. Lots of scantily clad women. Real Estate brokerage 
Emiliano: Last photo - not naked. Counting 2 earlier in presentation.

3:16
Sarah Jane Pell
What an amazing context to talk to you today about the neo-aquatic human.
I've been racking my brains.
Not the questions I need to ask.
Exp technologies
Understands technicity.
Liquid spaces
1966 Leonard Clark
Use oxygenated liquid to breath underwater.
USe this capability to extend our own breath.
Imagine if I could collaborate with people with advanced
Extreme spaces
More importantly, work with biologists.
We can contain - membrane around the body.
the skin could respire.
Like a tetrahema.
Bio mimetic principle.
Working with underwater robotics.
Come in future with AI.
Priviledges, work with undersea habitat, 
What I see is even more exciting.
Build and restore undersea construction.
Stromatolite strategy.
Life-like quality.
People who have been dreaming about sea-steading.
Life above and below the oceans.
On a macro level, look what is happening with really simple biology.
Sustain life in 
People experimenting, and artists, with gelatin
Pushing boundaries of 
Gelatin has incredible properties, forms.
Micro injected.
Whole new dimension. Look to future.
Liquid based, O2 habitats. Artificial shell.
Lunar context.
Putting life in these small gelatenous contexts?
What potentials are hanessed in bioreactors.
If the answer is yes, 
I suggest we simply dive in.
3:21 [applause]

David Dell: One sentance summation?
SJP: How to use bio-aquatic thinking for moving forward.
David: Gave a lot of examples, are those the limits?
SJP: Starting point, not an end point.
In this context, process- patch. Where might this lead.
A kind of strategy based not on countermeasures, but harness measures.
David: Wonderful job showing what this could be.
Salim: There is part of you that you hold back. Something not coming fully out.
Emiliano: Maybe present underwater.
Salim: Learned a huge amount.
Dan: If you could breathe underwater what is the first thing you would do?
SJP: Send a postcard to my parents and that would be it for quite some time. New kind of exploration.
Dan: Where would you go?
SJP: Australia.
I'd like to go into uncharted territories.
Not necessarily 
Dan: How would an underwater be different?
SJP: Very different.
Dan: How? Why?
SJP: Basic needs would be same, but sense of touch we need would be inhibited. We'd find way to overcome this.
My understanding from working in that space - not only a bodily experience. Understand my body in and of a body of water. I'm completely connected.
I don't have that connection on land.
I have that connection with individuals.
How precious life is.

David A: Wouldn't water amplify sensibility?
SJP:Not conscious of what I see. Contact with other bodies is ...
Dan: Would you make contact with other species.
Loss of speech?
SJP: Still speak through your body.
Brad: Other than the food would be soggier. Are there people?
SJP: Free divers would take it up.
Imagine it being liberating for people with disabilities.
Physical limitation - experience space in whole new way.
3:28 [applause]

3:29
Onwe go.
[canned applause]
Thought I would like a warm welcome.
Take you now, in the coming minutes.
Many technical presenations.
Future art meets exp technology.
Served 2 years at Italian min of fin.
Ideals
Passions
tons of paper.
Democratic govts need consensu.
Need mone to buy consensus.
Old concerns: 
One thing is sure.
Protect against war, 
New Concerns:
Not just wars, cyberwars
New social needs.

This is a crucial task.
Too high when people are in their adult age.
Too low in late age.
Web based universities.
Great new opportunities
Super tax collectorscoming like
Very great opportunity, governmen wil have acess to information.
Will make invormed error.
As easy as [ching, ching]
DARPA
\"I can't do that\"
Exponential incompetance.
This is what you will need.
What is next.
Will the Ican't do it prevail
Let's do it the old way?
[cannon] no choice
If you don't adapt, your neighbor will.
Can you think about a war against a super modern enemy.
This is why you have to communicate the wonders of exp tech.
No antidote against risk
What can govt do?
Must not move against common sense.
Adapt
Another lesson. Govt should not impose restrict. Geniuses will go to neighbor.
Dr. Moreau should not perform tricks in teh public.
Dedicatedspacs for that.
This is for ou David don't play with mother church
Dont dispute the divine nature of man.
That was it.
3:35
Salim: Where did that last big come from?
Never would have thought of before coming to Rome. Exactly where you'd expect resistance, comes help, provided you do not prompt a negative reacion.

Dan: Point?
Francesco: Not alternative to embracing exp for government. Main task not only for legal frameworks, but communicate to populations.
Dan: One example
If you manage, in education during period they are empoyed, will save incredible about of money. Uploading into the brains of people new lessons, and skills. More money into their pensions.
Dan: Edu is not an exp techn. Components. Specific examples.
Francesco: Vision about outcome, not instrumetns.

David A: Infrastructure. Govt structures. Necessities.
Touched on subject.
You had content.
Complex in its thought.
Sound effects were distracting.
More words, less pictures.
Francesco:Govt is secretive. Not delivered any presentation for 2 years.

Brad: Like animated people. Slides went a littel too far.
When designing slides, they should not upstage you.

Dan: What is your dream to change the world?
Francesco: A world with more options fro any individual. Limited - varies vastly depending on where born. In West, ample choice. If it is born elsewhere, limited options. Whatever that means.
Dan: Exp make that possible.
Francesco: Probably
Dan: Great, we'll talk some more. 
3:40 [applause]

Julian
3:41
Hello. My name is Julian
Revolution for the bottom of the pyramid.
Revolution with the bottom.
1.5 b people, earn less than $1,500 per year.
People don't know where they are. How much they can pay.
These People live in Slums.
1st Phase - build emergency houses
2nd Phase - social programs - get skills
3rd Phase - permanent houses
Santiago - my city. Blue is rich, red is poor.
Opportunities in different place from where people are.
Same slum, spend $1 per day to connect.
[Cyber cafe]
3G for $1 / day.
But in 8 years, better internet connection.
IA interface.
In this moment, hot map of necessities.
People can show us, given that we can resolve with technology.
Collaborative network.
So let's innovate together.
For example, my project.
People in the bottom - $1 bn of social problem
Outsourcing solutions.
People in Africa - create technology, DIY shower
Create factories with AI intelligence.
PayPal
Buying progress.
First step to include this in the BOP market, work with familes.
Fast way to improve the life.
3:46 [applause]

David A: Keep looking at faces. Get more of your stories from Chile, passion already alive.
When you turn away, let them see you searching
Dan: Your personal experience - how you are making a differenc.e
Here are particular technologies I can use to change my part of the world.

Brad: Liked concreteness. Very down to earth. Assume buildings in Chile are something.

Salim: Would have taken Andrea and put her at the start. What will her life look like.
Dan: More you can personalize it- see her world through her eyes.
David A: and you already have the story
3:48 [applause]

3:50
Eugenie = marketing 2.0
Google
Internet - following exponential trend.
Coming from usage.
Overpassing radio - radio in 1895.
Will overpass TV. People watching more internet than TV
In 2010, Q1 - budget online is $5.9 bn ads
Overload?
Adsare everywhere.
No.
We need to be more optimistic.
Reinvent advertising.
Trends: 
Co-creation
http://en.eyeka.com/

Interaction
Measure
- slow decline of content you cannot measure
Trends - 
ads will change.
User
be able to quantify everything about your self.
I am cooking
I am happy, depressed.
Augmented reality.
Senses blasting - all video/text/image- test it smell it
DIY not like that, Coca-Cola penguin.
Everything from the brain.
Completely interactive with you Brand \x3c-> You
Full integration - 
Full cycle - Users / Tech / Branding
Give you a message on exactly what you want.
Amazing world where 
Merci de votre attention
Questions.

David: Nutshell. Us or advertsing?
Advertising, but according to us.
David: Do you like changes?
Yes.
Dan: What are you going to do?
Move to being more discrete.
Ad will always be business model, like google. Always be the model.
Revolutionize to make it more efficient.
Dan: That's what Google will do. How about you?
Google not there. On the display there. Just follwing demogaphic infor, not state of mind. Even activites, - on internet. Mountain of information to gather.
Brad: Two kinds of marketing.
Matches tastes
Other crates tastes - is that good.

Lead generation
Branding. First of mind for a user.
We in advertising won't be pushing.
Google has not launched any marketing compnay, they have just be accessed by user.

David A: Spoke more to one half of room.
When you went to 2020, a dramatic shift.
Dan: Thankyou.
3:58 applause.

Dan: Anyone not presented, besides Fabio.
Luke has a talk he'd like to do.

Fabio: Longest day of my life.
4:00 Going to talk about the future of software
How impact our lives in a very particular way.
With advent of AI.
Computer experience will be totally radically changed in aspect.
What is going to be like in the future wih AI?
We are going to emergy human and machines.
Cybernetic 
Computational power increasing every 18 months.
Harvest, or retrieve,
from incredible data.
On the other hand we have, the real human intelligence. Artifically make human behavior in the machine.
So, result.
Cognition.
Thinking
Remembering
Solving problems.
Where things are going to start to work the way you work.
The way the information flows through - system work flows.
Carry out - highlighting
Things you might forget to do
Things you might be intereste to do.
Related things.
6 hours spent finding slides - totally unacceptable.
So, how is this going to impact lives?
From user point of view.
With synergy between computer and human, 
produce more with less work.
Achieve more goals faster.
Productivity - goes fairly high
Produce more and work less.
What will we do with the free time?
Working less, having more free time - things that you want to do.
Get computer to solve for me.
That's my first option.
And, um, guys understand what I'm saying. Pretty hard.
Conclusion,
Cognitive sotware, helping you do what you have to do.
That's it. Sorry.
[applause]
4:05

Dan: Very important point we brought up at lunch. When robots doing all these things, not enough standard employment for people.
Your picture was more free time, woo hoo. But what if people get bored.
If you had a lot of free time, how would you not be bored.
How is society going to deal with having a lot of free time?

Soething to know. You can choose working less. Things are happening. We spend more time working. Having fun. Having families. One thing I miss - I work all day long to achieve my commitments. Very little free time to do other things.

Fabio: If all your time was free, what would you do now?

Help other people. I wish I could stay here all my life. Working on too many porjects. What I like to do. Have th emoney, have the time.

Fabio: You would have the work, but it would feel like leisure.

David A: More passion. Did you feel your presentation expressed your passion.

Fabio: Hard for me. Went to bed at 5 am.

Dan: So, how do you want to change the world. You get all the time. You are the last speaker. What do you care about most? How do you want to change the world.

Fabio: Um. I thnk that - you don' t have all that it akes to actually change the world [snaps fingers] in a fast way. If you arre really passionate about what you do, but if you realize that your world, your house, other people have more needs than you are-- why not? It is interesting that when you do something for somebody, but you are the one getting the best of it. Giving of yourslef to somebody else. This is the first time I've had to share this with thers of the same feeling. Feel like brothers. Wish I didn't have to sleep. A very common feeling. Just want to thank you for being here. totally unexpected. Totally out of the blue. I will never forget what Dan Barry said 2-3 months ago in Brazil Make it happen. Thanks for that Dan.
4:11 [applause]
Dan: Tahnk you Fabio. 
Am I done.
Brad: Hard to get Dan to atlk about his passions.

Luke: Information age 2.0. How we use fractal compression.Completely not obligation.
Dan: Thanks for a wonderful day.
[applause]

4:31
Luke: 
Information
Plants aborb light.
Humans need information in the same way.
We use that to solve problems in our lives.
If information is the passive element, computation is what acts on it.
We have greater and greater quantities of information in the world.
Not spending time at a wet bench.
People spend entire day with \"data science\"
Empirical
Models
Computational
4th paradigm

Salim: Health Care and the singularity

Huge need for computer science in every field we are in.
Bleeding edge.
Write code- becoming most fundamental.
CS having to learn chemistry.

Physicists were always programming -- in Fortran.
- Rse of the Citizen Scientist
Down load huge datasets and analyze on personal PC.
All they need it time.
Trained via Wikipedia.
Science is going forward as never before.
Using information to do science.
How biology uses data to do almost everything.
WormBase - analysis of C. Elegans worm uploaded into one place
http://www.wormbase.org/
Can run in vivo experiments without killing it.
Now we have complete genonme.
1000 cells.
Complete lineage is documented. When they divide.
Remarkable. Not for any other organism.
The is the beginning of the genome 
[100 Mbase]
Take DNA and try to find mapping - structure from sequence.

Biology is amazing database.
1000 times stars in visible universe.
30,000 cells for every base pair

Brain. 50,000: 1 per base pair.

In CS, we don't know how to achieve this.
Brain used 20W. Bigsupercomputer uses10MW.
A quadrilion times more efficient.
Brain is a remarkable computer.

Remove reduncancy.
Maximally compressible - detecting errors with redundance.
If compressed as much as possible, it becomes brittle.
Biology doesn't work that way - it WELCOMES mutation.
Absorb lots of mutation.

How on earth does biology achieve this/
2 - 3 rules applied randomly.
Step out, rotate left or right, starting from same point.
Each frond is copy of whole fern
Self-similarity
Algorithmic information theory.

Digits of Pi. Hard to compress. Infinitely long.
Howevver, you can write a really small program to generate and infinte number of digits of Pi.
So if we can write programs we can achieve this kind of compression.
clear biology does this.

Embryogenesis - cascade of events.
Triggers one, then the next.
I don't belive that. Doesn't jibe with information science.
Biology would harvest such a wide variety of techniques.
Intrinsic signalling.
What is clear, life is DNA>
We have everything - life as we know it, biology is informatoin.
Take risks to understand how biology uses informatoin.
Look toinformation theory for clues to how biology builds these structures.

Otehr point: 
Bio becoming infro sci.
Relearn sci.
Sunami of data headed our way.
4:43

Jacobsen: What algo you using to search?
The Cell Fate Tree.
Taken all cels. Mapped them on to anatomy.
Which parts 

: Genotype / Phenotype

A feature is part of another feature.
This big structure maps onto the cells of the body.
Which contain which cells. 
Which anatomical
FEed through ontology. 
Another database - gene meta data - then pulll out genes. The promoters, the UXRs. 
Then blind pattern matching.
The genes active and the cells expressed.
Look for changes between one daughter cell and a sibling.
Same, but slightly differnet.
Pattern recognition.
Can't map from domain to range. Can't do machine learning.
Looking for a needle in a haystack when you don't know what a needle looks like.
You can do statistical approach here.
Same kind of thing, like google searchs.

: Found anything
Nobel prize given to worm researchers.
12 genes that cause a cell to die - part of intended growth of organism. Progrmmed cell death - apoptosis?
300 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apoptosis

Chiara: 
: Epigenetics coming on now.
Compounding return.
Another thing just released.
3 prime ATRs at the end of the genes. How these sequences effect transcription.
Harvest all the work they did and query.
UTRs implicated.
For apoptosis
Query like that runs in 10 seconds.

Chiara: Use PCA
I'm taking data from web. 5 years, barely set foot in a wet lab.
I've beenat the computer doing biology.
Completely changing the way we do science.
Speed information is increasing is far more exponential trend.
Even, my view of the singularity - tools to digest exp quantities through limited channels.
We are already machine/human hybrids.
Exp tech will allow us.

Miguel: Role and position of information.
Place where mroe important.
What about individual variability?
OK, take - somehow different.

Luke: Really at least two major mechanisms in development.
Signalling between cells. Touches another cell, effects subtype of cell.
Vs. Cell intrinsic -information it passes to daughter.
Certain points in the tree - 
See at the top. A dashed line - entire subtrees can switch. 
If they happen to touch something else if they are touching.
It can exchange information with other cell.
Amazing.
Signalling going on.

Reason studying c. elegans. almost invariable.
Some sex dimorphism.
In general both going on - naive to think one mechanism underlying all this.
Biology is infinitely creative.
If optimal, then probably using some underlying mechanism to do a lot of things. Some kind of blueprint.
We just have to find it.

Variability - different longenvity. Difficult to say really how one - even if cell fate tree is the same - what causes one worm to live, another to die.

David: Has c. elegans group evolved?

Wormbase was first.
Flybase
Fishbase
Point is, not so open today.
C. Elegans after they found teh genome.
Zebra fish -
Sea urchin,
More complex organism.
Higher.
More probablistic.

David Dell: C. elegans gift shop. A model
A lot of research competitive- not shared until published.

Luke: Took about 30 years to convince people this was important. Huge number - keeping close until published.
That wormbase even exisits says a lot.
Tons of different datasets.
Probably an exponential - power curve, small number contribute a lot.
Somebody had gone through 8000 scientific papers - a ridiculous amount of work.
Publishing something for someone else - sci knowledge should probably be given away.

: 
Bio in age of information science. Huge levels of noise.
Certain things to amplify signal to noise.
Could do more double checking.
Not done enough. Be very careful
Lot of messy work.

Pareto's law -80% of content for 20% of effort.

Chiara: years matching with results.
Software that coulddo that? huge impact?

When I'm finished, put stuff out there.
5:00 [applause]

"
http://su-etherpad.com/unconf-Jul17-Ignite-Water-Room
"Saturday
7/17/2010
Ignite Talks
Building 20
Water Room

==Water Rm / Eric / Mac / Keynote==
dhaval chadha
sasha grujicic
alison lewis
brad kohlenberg
luca escoffier
michael chen
sharon niv
homan (Rosa) chan
diva tommei
justin pahara
maggie jack
dmitriy tseliakhovich
anders hvid
santiago bilinkis
chiara turelli
elizabeth brook
eric ezechieli
chiara giovenzana
julielynn wong
yara shaban
everson lopes
kausar samli
matt kern
rand hindi
tony lyu

"
http://su-etherpad.com/unconf-Session-E
"INFORMATION = EVERYTHING

philosophy is about discussion
first, information is everything

genome has root structure

tree has record in its rings, weather, age, 
evil is chaos, biggest source of information

more entropy is more info

sex: lots of communication in sex (lots of information is being expressed)

stupidity: there are only two thigns that are infinite, not sure about universe. that i can't answer

single: one is the opposite of zero - it is an integer. it expresses one interger out of an infinite integers

energy: expresses everything our universe if made of

universe: it is a pattern, there are many possible patterns. anything that obeys logical rules is a pattern. time space continum. sand is a pattern. pattern is everywhere. patterns are energy

there is a thing that some people find fascinating,

PI is an irrational number (3.141....) - it never repeats. some people say that spmewhere in Pi, anything can be found. but it is posisble to have an infinite pattern of things that dont repeat that never have the string 1-0-1. but it's possible not express everything - 011001

every number in 1,2,3,4... you cna find what you are looking for

very simple logical axioms - contains all infinite information you need to have you or your favorite book in binary digits.

how do you describe infinity?

what is it?

there are no infinte things in our universe... any patterns we have in our universe is finite... this is philosophy... there are ways we can argue against it......

BUT there are an infinite Number of possible universes

the conservation principle is a driving factor for evolution for chemical bonding..... it is necessary 

mathematically it is out there - if yu ahve an inifite number of time then it can be reasoned that anything in our universe is possible

continuous numbers, problems with computers, floating numbers = rounding erros

Planck lenght - more inforation more energy and finite amoutn of energy

Thermodynamics

Temperatuer of the room is teh average of all the velocities of all the aprticles of air in the room - but it is convenient of sparcity in the pattern

Do you think there is only a singular infinity?

When we are talking about infinity, we are talking about symbols on a page. for example the power set operator.... - when you have a set like all integers...... this can end up being a bigger part of infinity.

when you talk about comparing infinities......

how many odd numbers are there? 1,3,5,7.... looks like less odd than even. but you can say 2n+1, there is a correspondance like... one set with four points and one set with inifinite points, if you have one of each set compare to one of the other set, they are equal (?)

powerset operators can end up being so big that they are bigger levels of infinity, this becomes almost impossible to comprehend

countable infinity - 1,2,3,4,5...... infinity

everything that is relevant to things we use like in laws of physics or computation are

Nature of COmputation in the Brain

Cartesian dualism, mind is out somewhere in the universe, no free will

Mind brain theory - mind state is exactly the state of cells in the brain

what happens when different topologies brain and have same emotions?

state of the mind - what input output situation can you put on the brain.... can you have the same input and the same output?

Q: at the moment I don't have an output....
A: you're going through an evolution eventually and

Q: How can you talk about different brain states when it is subjective.....
A: the state of the brain is complex, it's absurd to say that you are in one emotional state alone. there may be six layers of self-reflection, tehre are diferent states at each level....

Q: how to react to everything information?
A: agree. anyhting we care about can be turned into information except for stupidity

Q: randomness? probabiltiy function may provide different results each time?
A: information content cannot be compressed. anyhting random will not be aligned with your goals. wahts there informationally, you dont know. you have some prior infromation.....

Q: what is your preferred definition of information? is everyhting information?
A: Claw Shannon (?) , technciians and philosophers that have an instrumental role in one theory or another. can't prioritize one over the other. my definition is that all informaiton is an integer

Q: practical uses of infinitiy?
A: approximation

Q: do people use a power set to describe a complex system?
A: complex systems like feedback, other variables you don't understand results in unpredictable behavior....

Q: differences between rational and irrational decision making?
A: rational decision making only happens when you have all the information, irrational is when you ahve allt he information and you don't make a decision

Q: What do we have between information and the real world?
A: Perception. Reality is information but we don't have access to it... we are also information ourselves....

LAST COMMENTS: thank you guys!!! clappinnggg.....

Tissue Engineering

3D models are the next big thing.

Cells know if they are in a 3D dimensional world or if they are just in a 2D environment. So far almost always 2D tissue engineering has been used which does not allow to create deeper structure (eg. the structures under the top layer of the skin).

- put agar on the petri dish so cells are aggregating together
- use a centrifuge to create a 3D structure
- or use a \"drop\" to create a 3D environment
But all of those are \"fake\" 3D models

Perfusion = forcing the nutrients through the system. This is how a perfusion bioreactor works.

Those systems allow to create tissues in the lab. Currently only tissues can be engineered like that but organs are not possible yet.

Skin can be produced like that.

Peripheral nerves have been engineered already.

This process is used to grow cells that need to adhere to something. Blood cells for example dont have to adhere to something. Skin cell have to adhere to something.

It is not known yet what mixture can be best used to accelerate the growth of the tissue in the reactor.

How do you specialize the tissue?
- It depends on the mixture of the bioreactor.
- Depends on what cells are close to the cell.

Drug testing and models for researach labs are paractical applications.

Less than five years to until the process works well. The bottleneck is some still missing research and the funding for that.

There are protocols for each different tissue that are engineered. Thosse regulates the right substrates and mixtures. 

Vincent on Investment Banking:
Our economy would not work without banks, want to give a little insight about banking first, then banking more specifically
it's important because without banks nothing would work
What's a coroporate? how do busineses make money? produce and sell good. banks work differently. (sorry, disconnected)
Banks can make money by varying the length of their lending. 
if you lend money short term (daily turnover) and put it into long term investment. 
if you look at a bank, asset side (where you invest) and the liability side (where you get your deposit from) and there you have the equity, where investments put the money. they also have a leverage effect. you can play with 12 times as much money as is investment. what i didnt say before. the bank can play with how much they pay the person who gives them the money and how much they charge the person they lend to, and how long the loan is for. two types of money: 1. someone who puts it in the bank as an investment 2. risk free, you can take it out whenever

one is risky (you might not get your money back) if you buy shares and give me 10% as a commission, th bank doesn't take risks. 

the bank can also do their own business or client business (lending is usually their own, transaction for client is the clients' business) there are a lot of different banks, private, asset managers, if they dont do other buesiness it's risk free.
you have the classical banksm, retail bank, which you go to to do anything you need (and individual) the commercial does the same with institutions

then you have investment banking - basically can do anything a calssical does but a different focus
one side - mergers and acquistions and advisory - a company wants to sell a business and comes to us, and we will manage the whole process. who you should talk to, who would be interested, what the value of the bsuienss is. we're also intermediaries. we build competitions. No risk business for bank. we advise and take a percentage of transaction volume, usually 1-2% of the volume. very lucrative. also a business that takes time, but we do a lot of it for free, trying to convinceclient to take look into other business, etc. 
other side - trading, markets. this is what's shown on tv, huge floor with traders. this is where risk is.
one side is for clients, no risk, we sell and buy for clients; other is our own books, our own money.

like goldman sachs, started out M&A, but not almost all comes from trading

M&A is all confidential, because itaffects values of companies, so we can't communicate with the trading sight. tradign is all public information. 

you have two more areas: capital markets deal with IPOs(both inside and outside)
last: research, only public information. publish papers valuing public companies, try to find out what's a good share to buy,e tc. 

some investment banks have private banking again, some have inernal hedge funds. in the end an nvestment bank can literally engage in any business.

how are bankers paid? there's a differentiation. there's a guy in the bank you go to, and he gets paid like anyone else. then there's i-bankers, get a nice baseline, but majority comes from bonus, it can be 300% of base salary. Incentive system is a bit skewed, there's no risk takin here, but in trading, if you take risk and succeed, you can have a huge bonus; if you fail, you get fired, but risk is getting no bonus or huge bonus but no negative - you don't pay when you fail.

now regulators are tryign to align global economy's interest with the bank. youtube: the crisis of credit visualized. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oosq3TPgHH0

Q:Doesn't M&A have own investiagtion:
A: it's advisory, it's the first access point for a client. if they want anything, they go there. M&A is confidential. that's called insider trading. 
Q: talk about leverage?
A: I started with that. basically assets is where you put your money liability is where you get it. You make money through the spread. leverage is what the multiple of assets times equity. the largest assets are in comparison to equity, the more risky your position is. 
Q: money is printed by private banks and lent to state (zeitgeist) - the backstage is very huge mechanism that defines how we innovate
A: the FED prints money, the bank might do the printing but can't print whatever they want. we can lend assets to anyone, you, companies, gov't bonds (that' what happened in greece, and now they might not get their money back)Q: but central bank owned by private banks A: i'm not sure that's true. this is the first time I heard this
Q: it's true, zeitgeist claims european banks owned the banks, but that's not true; the other claim is any bank cannot print unless FED regulates it but FED itself is private; A: the FED is obviously spearate from govt on the govt would keep lending lending lending the purpose of FED is to keep money a stable value; that's t (KEEPS CRASHING SORRY)
----------------------------------
Santiago Bilinkis - Buisness Intellignece - the Perfect Computer Costomer Interface

Wasn't planning on doing a presentation - created a large office supply company Officenet, studeid economics, not business - don't really believe in theory of business. Wanted to pass on some useful lessons learned to start up a company.

If you are starting up a company, you can lease the most powerful computer for $600/month with no downpayment - would you use it? Add - this supercomputer has nearly perfect voice recognition....this computer also has AGI! That computer is called an Argentinian!! They can be leased for $600/month!!

When his company was acquired by Staples - his company had 700 people (Staples looked at him like he was crazy for having sooo many people) he found that to be lunacy!

If you can employ HQP that is key!

First piece of advice: use people! people are great!
Is impressed how strongly Staples employee's sophisticated systems to replace people...

2 examples:
1. His company sold over the phone (1997) so even if he had a website, orders came phone or fax, the internet started have more and more orders...after 10 years, 50% of orders came over phone - what did they do? use half the people? NO When customers talk to someone, they are MUCH more loyal! if they wanted to convince for upsales...used people! All of the online orders were followed up with personalized phone calls. Most people in business think to automize and minimize peope - Santiago worked to COMBINE business intelligence with people. The perfect customer/computer interface has a person in between!
- Officenet - he used to do a demo where he would call a customer service line and after two rings a human would answer (not an aan automated operator) - it was a human being ready to assist. Whenever he has to call to a call centre, whenever they pick up the phone he says the amount of time he's been waiting (10min) they also say too much volume, phone call traffic...etc...total excuses!! Purely an economical decision because you can predict volumes!!
2. People are a great piece of hardware but they are no good without software. He found out in his experience that few companies use business intelligence! IF each of us go to Amazon.com, those guys are the best in teh world at business intellingence. So he has been focussing on using business intelligence in his business (Staples didn't), give the buisness intelligence tools to the employee's. You must give them instructions.
ie) every account manager handles 200 accounts so the customers can be known. Told each agent to optimize the customer portfolio (very abstract challenge), expected them to extract all the money from their clients Called customers who left a vm, who had a birthday, who according to algorithms could be taken to the competiton....also remember that all customers are not created equal (some worth more, etc...) so that is essential to optimize!
- so created an agenda system, person 1 for this reason, person 2 for this reason...they created the prioritization system - actionable items! Very precise instructions! People are relieved and far less anxious!
- used to have the managers enter the account managers into the system, and for some reason had a small book where they kept the numbers and the data base would deteriorate - so what did they do? they developed a system where the only way to dial and call a customer was using a computer system - so if any phone number or email was wrong, they couldn't communicate with the customer. Resulted in a perfect database, as well as accurate tracking system of performance!! 
- use people and business intelligence to utilize within the company to help your employee's.
- you also have to put the right incentives in place - everyone in the company (CEO to receptionist) has a significant portion of the salary that is incentive based to reward work. This is totally uncommon within Argentina! 
- Believes there is no better way to enforce your priorities than to pay people for them.
- most peope really cared about making an extra buck - so a very powerful motivational and aligning tool. You have to be careful because you get what you reward, and if you don't reward the right things, you can create monsters!!
- had some months with weird results because the commission scheme wasn't correct - don't be afraid of trying or changing. 
- You need to reward both productivity and quality variables!!!
- Staples ended up measuring clients in a different manner than his company did - they called a random selection of 60 and would only ask 1 question - he was very concerned on how it was going to go. The first time the survey happened, they recieved 50% which Staples wanted to 65% minimum, last month left with a score of 81$ (4/5 customers gave a 5/5) so ultimatley, his score ended up being higher than Staples could achieve.
Questions:
Q) Said people are cheaper than computers - was that initially based on a calculation or what drove that? No formal calculation, believed that they were trying to get rid of people too much. The Board of Directors rewarded for profitability - so as long as they could prove and maintain that - then the model worked. 
Q) Did you consider outsourcing the call centre's to other geographic locations? Absolutely not, having control of your processes, tools, etc....every system that was used was developed custom - because he believed that's what the key was. Every user interface was developed around key elements specific to the business model (put a lot of brains into that).
Q) following the value chain - what was outsourced? The only thing to outsource because of legality was the delivery fleet, hired a service to put a van in the door every day and control where that goes. The magic is to have total control of your process.
Q) Do you already know your next challenge? No - not sure if its business, always fascinated by science and tech, Officenet was a chance to build the opportunity to do what he wants...much tougher than he imagined it would be. He's trying to change his life and unsure which direction to go.

"
http://su-etherpad.com/unconf-Session-B
"Marco:

Basically all of these technologies head to zero cost, below 100$ for test. what is geentic testing? disese susceptibility, carrier testing, response to medication, nutrigenetic testing, ancestry, paternity, tissue compatibility

what are success stories? tay sachs? prevalence 1971 - 1/3 american jews 2010: ~0%!!

adverse drug reaction: long standing and largely neglected medical problem; even if doctos do eveything the way we should (we don't always know what will happen) but with the knowledge of pharmacogenetics we can avoid this

4th leading cause of death in US!! ADRs a modern epidemic. In the future this will be preventable, knowledge growing exponentially. 

Your DNA affects your response to drugs. DNA test can tell you if drugs are: 1. safe and 2. effective for your body

One size fits all is still the approach of pharmaceutical companies, and this is just not the case. theapeutical dose is between toxic dose and effective dose. person A inherited two genes that means this person can't metabolize this medication,a nd it becomes toxis (side effects of death), B, this medication is good for them, C, has one defective copy, and D has too many copies and his body metabolizes the med too fast, so he needs a much higher doses.

solution? pharmacogenetic testing? tests of genetic variations that code for enzymes that metabolize drugs
RIGHT NOW: we have capability to test for 80% of tprescribed medications. 

5.5% of medications that are prescribed shouldn't be prescribed at all, because they inhibit enzymes (?)

example, 20% of breast cancer patients die because of a medicinal side effect because their pharmacogenetics weren't considered. 

Q: what's your company called?
A: Gene planet. I think in the next couple of months slovania will make it widely available and covered by insurance. sold for 100 euros. 
Q: why is it not done for everybody if the costs are small compared to a bone marrow?
A: you have a BM registry, and you have 5000 volunteers, they only test 2000 of these, because they don't have money

5:16 
Empathy
Maggie

Working on project for summers of '06 '07 '10.
Interactive nurse. Provide discharge - mmedications and diagnosis.
Point of project is to decrease returns to the hospital.
Contribution was to script the agent with empathy.

Q: Mirror neurons
Feelings from their point of view.
Sometimes a skill or feeling.
First used in early 20th century by psychotherapists.
Has
1 Affective
2 Cognitive
3 Behavioral 
components.

Studies have shown empathy lessens patient distress.
Better clinical outcomes.
Questions - no sure-fire way to measure.
Unclear if empathy can be taught.
There are empathic opportunity.
Any time a person
\"How are you\"
\"Not so great ...\"

First, listen.
Second, question.
Third, give a statement of understanding.
\"Oh, how come?\"
\"My elbow hurts.\"
I understand. I'm sorry to hear that. - including touch to elbow.
Self touch is partof non-verbal empathy.
Touching them.
Verbal is really important.
Well, I geuss you gotta live with what you got.
Humor.
Lasso effect - get someone to tell all their bad emotions, respond with large empathy.
Computer's don't ave emotions.
Can we code it?
Often hard to model.
Positive things to build on - we empathize with Nemo.
People assign person-like characters to computers.
The computer can be a woman, or of a certain race.

Although computers can't test feelings they can detect autonomic -
skin
high heart rate
Still really simple tests.
Computer on a blackjack game - if heart rate goes up, blackjack deal gives empathy.
Statistically significant rright now.

We can still code certain empathic bahaviors.
Quote \"We can't define Everest precisely. But Hilary climbed it.\"

NIH and ARC funded.

Q: : There is a theory by Marshal Rosenberg. Empathic guesses. Are you fearful? Are you scared? Then it would know.

Our nurse does that.
Q: Facial postures. Some people want answers. Some just want someone to be empathic.
Both empathy and what should I do.

It has both actually. The nurse in trials now is doing both.
Also comparing with and without.

Q: Emma: problems/ limitations. Don't want hug when I feel ill.

Computers don't feel emotion, but having a bit helps.
Sometimes it can backfire totally.
It can lose all credibility.

Q: The uncanny valley.
John's speech recognizer brings that up in me.
May really turn people off.

Nurse is 2D. 3D is freaky. No one wants to replace the human nurse.

Q: Milestones?
Biosensors will make it all different. Really big.
One now is touch screen, not voice recognition.

Q: on discharge. Or something to discharge WITH. Robonurse to answer questions as they come up.
[Eliza]

So the \"Louise\" beta version. On-line Louise can be on mobile phones. For 30 days Window for people to go back to hospital.

Q: Neat way to get feedback to doctor.
If emergencies, human nurse if flagged. Just that would be really helpful.

Q: HIPPA?
As a research team, we've all had to sign form. We can see history.
We can also publish, but anonymized.

Q: Compare results of reactions to Lousie, vs chat.
Not video or voice.

Concern with elderly. 
Targe is Low (income?) group.
Excluded people with dementia.

Q: What about the robot option.
Some cute thing that is 3D and can touch.
Hard to empathize with person you are taling to.
Try to build a little robot. Something you could take away.
Ask about side effect.
Q2: Would just be cute things. 
Q: Not humanoid. Not a lifesize nurse.

Don't want to confuse people.

Q: Telepresence.

We want to save physician time.

5:45 Ethics of Transhumanism - Emma Brooke
- Individual enhancement and expanding tech.
- when we get to a point where we can consider ourselves poost human

Transhumanism - \"the worlds most dangerous idea\"
vs.
The most idealistc, brave, adventurous thing we can do

Ideas of super powers and human enhancement go all the way back to the beginning of recorded hirstory
but as it becomes real the debate gets heated

Morality is based on history, this is changing the nature of ehtics and getting into predicting

1. Genetic Divide - The potential divide between those who have genetic enhancements and those who don't, two tied society could be created if political reform can't keep up. Could be elements of domination and control. People trying to catch up : black market

2. Frankenstein - manufacturing as monsters, clones, subhumans, chimaeras

Issac Asimov - provided there are self aware clones and subhumans we are all people deserving of rights
but there could be human racism based on yuck factor

3. Eugenics - conjurs up bad thoughs of nazis; essentially creating super people becomes possible.
Transhumanist societites don't think this will happen but neither did the germans

4. Playing God
- immortality
Could elimnate suffering but does suffering give us our humanity?

5. Fountain of Youth
- Self indulgent power fantisies, obsession with youth and physical perfection, development of materialism and consumerism
- Though the idea of living on after death has been very human since our beginnings

6. Trivialism of humanity
- If we don't have negative consequences this too might detract from what it means to be human
- Some cultures consider being techno-phobes as more spiritual
- Alternatively with more abilites we can achieve more awareness in a deeper way that we don't yet understand

7. Spiritual
- Offers no search for that, we are assumign we know what's best instead od looking for higher truth and could lead to a post modern sinicism
- Goes against period of scientific breakthroughs that makes us more introspective spiritually

what are the ethics for stopping people from doing this
- eventually you find humanity has a necrophilia of sorts
- to limit these is to limit freedom

what exactly is humanity?
- perhaps once you manipulate free will we are no longer ourselves

"
http://su-etherpad.com/unconf-Session-D
"11:30 am - 11:55 am: John Graves: Power Tools

Went to link:
https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/powertools/

Discussion of software tools to enable
1/ Idea Gathering
2/ Idea Processing
3/ Idea Presenting

Explained and demonstrated how to create Wiki page within Singularity U.
Showed Wikipedia history page

Demonstrated Transcribe! - listening to video at double speed and creating transcript
SU has unlimited license

Demonstrated Prezi (via movie made with Screenflow)
Showed Concept Map

Demonstrated Animoto - makes slick music video with transitions

12:00 m - 12:25 pm: Julielynn Wong: Medicine

12:09 
Connor: we are allowed to eat raw oysters.
People need to be on calorie restricted diet.
Policy makers want to help us, but it could be draconian.

JW: Global mortality advances have been in public health.
Seat belts. More people die in traumatic accidents. Way more than HIV/AIDS. Poor signage.
It is crazy to sit in a bus in the 3rd world. 
Surgical issues are hard.
Dr. Kraft here.

Brad: IPhone. WebMD
Kraft: iTriage.
JW: Up-to-date by subscription
Brad: Hypocrates
How good is it?
Connor: just a drug listing
Daniel Kraft: takes you away from paper based things. Lot more depth. Describe pill, overdosed. You can search.
Hypocrates made for physicians.

Brad: AI Physician on your phone. Where are we on that?
JW: Just looking for that. Stanford library access would be great.

Sasha: Preventative care.
Kraft: New iPhone 4 has a scanner. Did my first face time last night.
Jose: still have 11 min.
JW: Specific what aspect of preventative care?
Sasha: Not life sciences. Diet and nutrition. What are biggest barrier about way people eat?
JW: Obesity is a pandemic, in a sense. Developing countries moving away from natural diets.
Not a question of individuatl choice. Perception is that fat is due to laziness.
Jose: Not in India - there, if fat = wealthy.
JW: Not much money in preventative health. Driven by outcomes.
If you prevent obeseity then no one sees it. If you save someone after a heart attack, then that is counted as something.
Starts before you are born.
Ban on soft drinks in schools - good thing.
No grocery stores in some parts of some cities.
You are right, it needs to be addressed.

Kraft: incentives are all mis-aligned. Doc is paid for procedures.
No time or tools. Referral to nutritionist doesn't happen.
If alignments are wrong, 20 CTMI scanners - still have bad health.
Get people to pay more attention to their own health
Mint.com
bio=texting.

Jose: Want to be part of the medical team for the SU team in the San Francisco Marathon on Sunday July 25th to have fun before, during and after. about 10 people will at least run.
JW: May do 5K. 
Jose: A few will do half marathon
Lunch after this. Come back at 2.
Connor: We all know about serious legistlation that cracked down on tobacco.
Beverage cos are worried they will be next.
They have been talking about this for years internally.
Not seen strong action from policy makers.
Nothing to change recipes.
High fructose corn syrup.
JW: Still perception that obseity is \"their fault\"
Link between addiction and food choice not as clear as with tobacco.
People can overdose with Tylanol. Most often used means of suicide.
Causes liver failure.
You can prevent suicides by manufacturing Tylanol with antidote included - so you can't overdose.
My guess: it is cheaper to use high fructose.
/Italy: Heavy metal toxicity?
Berillium?
How spread? How prevent? How cure?
JW: I'm not a toxicologist - that would be their field.
Arsenic is a heavy metal. Big problem in Bangladesh.
In grand scheme of things, that would not be a high thing.
It looms large. Bizarre. People don't know much about it.
Enough safeguards that it is a low risk, at least in US.
Preventable diseases are things to worry about.
Luxiourious lifestyle afflictions.

Sasha: What are more recent trends that are new?
JW: Still in training
Standard stuff - life expectancy in US is quite good.
Maternal mortality - fixed.
Conditions related to lifestyle - coronary, ...
Nice thing about being in this crowd is people taking ownership of health
Wish I had motivated patients like you

Sasha: Can you prescribe?
JW: Can get some antibiotics.
Do have license to practice, but not in this state.

Jose: Thank you. Be with us at the marathon.

12: 30 pm - 2:00 pm: LUNCH BREAK

2:00 pm - 2:25 pm: Juan Martinez-Barea: A Vision to Change the World Through Leadership and Education

2:30 pm - 2:55 pm: Erez Livneh: VECOY to Treat HIV - AIDS like It's Never Been Done Before

3:00 pm - 3:25 pm: Shary Niv: A Bit on the Science of Happiness

3:30 pm - 3:55 pm: Mike Chen: Viral Marketing and Starting a Company with $0

4:00 pm - 4:15 pm: COFFEE BREAK

4:15 pm - 4:40 pm: John Graves: Beyond Sixth Sense

TED talk: http://www.ted.com/talks/pattie_maes_demos_the_sixth_sense.html
Check also: www.loquendo.com and www.prezi.com
Stephen Wolfram and his book \"A New Kind of Science\".
Open Allure: http://groups.google.com/group/open-allure-ds and http://code.google.com/p/open-allure-ds/

4:45 pm - 5:10 pm: Dhaval Chadha - Julian Ugarte: Business to Overcome Poverty (Exponentially)

5:15 pm - 5:40 pm: Dhaval Chadha - Julian Ugarte: Planet of Slums

5:45 pm - 6:10 pm: Reflections on the State of America

"
http://su-etherpad.com/unconf-Jul17-Ignite-Viente
"Saturday Morning
7/17/2010
Ignite Talks
Building 20
Viente

==B.20 Viente / Rich / PC / PPT==
Morning session:
emiliano kargieman
steve cronin
tigist ashenaffi
diva tommei
ronen amit
michael jensen
ankur jain
erika anderson
miguel oroz
javier mares
david roberts
robert denning

Afternoon session:
emem andrew
john graves
alexandru celac
sarah jane pell
francesco galietti
julian ugarte
eugenie rives
fabio teixeira
erez livneh
raycho raychev
jorge fernandez
emma brooke
james jacoby
alaeddine mokri

[ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE NAKED PEOPLE'S AWARD]

9:12 emiliano
Business plan
Things started to get commoditized
So, how do you create value.
Knowledge Economy
Knowledge is starting to get commoditized. 
Used to go to University for big libraries.

If you think about Economy Thermodynamics:
approach marginal cost of production.

When things get more commoditized, find new ways
Company structure and 
Web service
Use modelling technology
Following the things going on, create model
Use AI to start
Things that will be critical in the future
Fully automated market analysis that will not require people to do.
Bots, etc.
Hire people to do hiring
Bots to pick people to hire [NAKED BABY = 1 point]
Desktop facbricators in every house.
Delivery products in real time
ePad - $120 came out in China
thing getting commodized really fast

Law of Diminishing Monopolies

How to create value in space.
Keep creating companies
9:17 [applause]

steve cronin
9:29
- Future of Innovation
Steve Cronin to talk about the Future of Innovation
Just got this from my sister
She knows how passionate I am about innovation
Creating the customer
Creating value
Distinction between innovation and invention
Converting to cash and making money from it
I believe Edison's greatest invention was the research lab
Just Do It
So innovation is constricted by our thinking
They are constraining your thinking
So where do people get their best ideas
Not whenthey are stressingout
We are born to create
Innovationrequies teamwork and passion
This is fundamental
If you don't innovate, someone else will.
If you are doing cameras, you should be doing digital cameras
Wisdom of Crowds - what makes the crowd wise
Diversit
Independence
Think Global
and Aggregate data
Sustainable innovation
Social and Environmental
Open Innovation
Smart people don't all work for you
Try to cover too many things, I think
Selectively foget the past
When you are at work, how do you feel - good/bad - what does that really mean.
Innovative cultures definitely win.
Are you making progress
An abstract thing
Motivation - do you love what you do? You need to absolutely love it.Optimism Rules
Leader - \"Life is Good\"
Every organiationabsolutely needs that
Do what you like, like what you do
changed what you like [time]

Innovation is hard. That's why it is worth doing.
9:34 [applause]

tigist ashenaffi [not here]
diva tommei [not here]
ronen amit 
- Automating Knowledge - Outliers
9:39
Start describing what it is about
What is knowledge
[skipped first slide]
Salim: start again
9:40 I'm going to talk about Automating Knowledge
Google's mission is to automate world's information
So hopefully you notice usefulness is knowlege
Another way to describe it - 
turn libraries into a search engine
About AI high stuff, now about usefulness
Birds wanted to fly
- machines to go faster, longer, hummingbird
Learning is modifying 
Meaning to me is the Jabberwock
Think about the 500GB
Meaning? This kind of structure
Meaning is structure.
There is negativity here. Not study
Active study - not doing
System is a self modifying system with other nice qualities
So, how do we do it.
Things connected by their meaning
All about active connections
Many connections, do very complex stuff.
Another nice part - self modify, driven by own form
Much more like a machine, an algorithm

Everything has to act smoothly.
Machinethat gets to know you using speech.
Teams - symantic
Once you automate knowledge, get stuff
that came up in different tracks.
Very inherently friendly.
Worth doing - what it is really about is shifting to make computers work like us.
That's it.
9:45 [applause]

Salim: We need a minute to put in our comments.
[Faculty team goes outside to confer again]
Emiliano: Just to let you know, I'm winning the naked people competition so far with one naked baby.

michael jensen
[puts on jacket]
9:51
- The Future of IT Strategy Consulting
OK guys to this ignite
I'm from Accenture
Current state, then key drivers as we go forward, build vision
Why is it I get up in the morning?
I help organizations
Wide range of analysis
Project mgmt and execution and fun with tech
Market consists of large and small players,
both local and global
a couple 1000 in this area
Characterized by having $1 bn rev
Bus and govt

Drivers
Improved longevity
Change way we work
di vinci drawing will show how to have nano implants [NAKED MAN! = 1 point]
Third- increased communcation tech - see Ray K

Last driver, increased computational power.
Dev transistor size.
AI

now to future visions
Curnet state.
Peek into future
Increased speed of industry change
More dynamic competition in industries
Why consultants have to innovate
AI as a competitor
Will radically change - smarter than a human
So, I think it is important that our .... I think it is stuck ..
So consultants [reading from slide]
Will take up quickly, become cyborgs in suits
Compete with AI, for example.
So we will also see a worldwide virtual present
10,000 miles away.
Abilities as a network organization
Mutliple organizations
Work - increased work [time]
Thank you
9:56 [applause]

derek jacoby
[additional table added to stage, then removed]
[faculty goes outside to consult]
Derek: We were just talking about how you guys have developed a bad smoking habit. You guys ready?

10:02
- Quality Food for Cities
I've twisted this a bit to be part of my team project
We are in the midst of an obesity epidemic
Exponential
Tied to exp increase in sugar consumption
After 30-40 years going off charts
High fruc corn syrup in the US
Just since the 1970s
Matches obesity rates
What the world eats
PA
CA - carbs, breads, vanilla wafers, nothing green
Cairo - compare the healthyness, actual green things
19 cents goes to farmer, not much going to the food
Make it easy to grow
Own spaces
Easy, low effort 
People lacking time more than money
Growbot
Very rapid plant growth.
Lawn sprayers in a plastic tub to provide nutrient solution
Roots just sit in air - absorb more nutrients from the air.
Where are exp tech?
Sensors
Monitor what is going on
Biotech .. will touch on
Easy bloom plugs into USB
Measure O2 and nutrients
Embedded controls
Materials make it cheap and durable
Let through energy from the sun.

In the future, biotech - faster growth, etc.
Move to dev world
there problem is production, not time
Power req has to change
solar power for sensors
Hydro vs aeroponic

Solutions do not depend on soil
Aero- and Hydroponics - use less water
Hope to see large number of gardens around the world 
- Questions
10:07: [applause]

Salim: I timed slide at exactly 15 seconds

ankur jain swapped with derek

[faculty consults outside]

erika anderson
10:13
- Democratization of the Law 
Exponential Technology for an Efficient Future
Good morning.
Our techologies, AI, nano tech goingto effect law?
Yes.
The entire body of law today
BUT
We are going to talk about the art of practicing the law
State of Neanderthals today [NAKED LADY? = 1 point]
Litigator
Policy lawer
IP
Today just transactional lawyers
Formulate what you are going to do
Research tools
LEXIS
Google
Simple for transaction
but for state of the art into develping nation
Big law -
at mercy of omnipotent partner and associates
They get rich,
Enormous barriers to entry.

Concrete example: 
India / international law /US law
And tax, climate change, contracts, insurance,
Indian tax law, climate
Several partners, associates combing through resources, costing lots of money
Imagine instead, your deal could be typed into a computer,
Spit out a tailored report
Identify needed forms
Mine information put in
Spit out everything filled out
AI for this is relatively simple
Fundamental disconnet between lawyers and guys doing AI
Have AI guys approaching the lawyers and giving them this kind of information
Incumbency
Law firms drive revenue for partners
Laws governing how to give legal advice
Reduced stress lawyer, giving same quality advice
readily accessible
World changing business strategies
We are democratizing law
10:18 [applause]

[lights off - slides are black]
Salim: No,no, no. We need to be able to see you on the video.
AV / team: Slides will be cut in.
Salim: Lights!
[lights back on]
[faculty consult outside]
Salim: Hold on - we're not ready yet.
Salim: How many words do you have in your name?

miguel oroz
10:23 
- life is a multiscale system
good morning
Future of biomedical imaging [NAKED WOMAN = 1 point]
emergence
see cancer in 8 different
Not just photography
digitalize
measure, model, understand what is behind
This is a retinal cell from 50 years ago.
Microscopy
Whole - position of each cell
Not enough
What about adding time.
Here, in the colors, you can see how cells displace 2008
OK, now moving, not enough
Change shape
What will happen
Think C and G in vivo
We know how it moves exactly.
Can do this today
in vivo, whole genome
Which are acting at this moment
Integrate all information
CG
AG
One of the keep of bioinformatic imaging
Take data from satellites, or whatever
Multiscale
What has to happen
Robotics
Power supply, energy
AI - bottom leg.
Math/cs
How to manage all this data. It is crazy.
Now we have all this data.
How to understand this language of life?
The genes, the genome are the letters of life.
The words of life
syntax?
How things can be tie together
Even if you know chinese indexes
Semantics - when and where
Take cells from axis.
Rio?
Axis - two cells, two brains
Understand the library of life
I don't know
Import to be able to do personalized medicine.
Different scales, different place
That's all. Thank you.
10:28 [applause]

[faculty consult outside]

javier mares
10:34
- AI, medicine and the developing world
Can AI combined with med tech and mobile tech
improve the lives of billions
This guy is a musician
We careabout those we love
50000 per doctor
These areloved one
Can we provide medicalknowedgethat is actionable
Can we provide it via mobile phones?
This is germ that kills people
This kid is sick
Mother calls.
Doctor says he is dehydrated
how to concoct re-hydration 
This is peru. People don't initially trust doctors
Trust faith healers
They speak the local language
start in big cities - this is Cusco
New ways.

What about the future
Cheap access to knowledge and education
Including medical care
Mobile phones and 
information - exp price performace
2 bn don't have access to surgery
Farmer in Niger - access to cheap surgery via tele robot
In future, autonomous robot.

MEDgle
Patient tool - find costs of symptoms
DiagnosisPro
More accurate diagnostics
We are in the early stages of having lots of information
Preventative medicine
- cheaper
- simpler
Not always for the insurance companies
If AI tech becomes cheaper, 
In conclusion AI + medicine can bring healthcare to billions
A very wothwhile pursuit.
10:39 [applause]

Salim: Let's ask what you guys thought?
[faculty consult outside]

Susan: Main things:
Good eye contact.
Don't talk too fast.
Speak clearly.

SJP: Don't stand in front of the projector.

Salim: The way we are grading
content
presentation
overall impact

I just want to get peer feedback.

What did you think of Javier's? [applause]

Q: How do you measure impact?
So, you've seen Ray and Peter. Peter has higher impact.
Does the presentation come out and grab the audience.

ankur
10:43
A new generation of entrepreneurs
Everybody wake up
[Will this go by itself?]

Salim: Start again
10:44
New wave of what entre will become
Sexy
What really is entre?
Starting a co
Next dot.com
Things are changing
Our gen thinks differently
It is a mind set
Belief that you can solve a problem

How we are solving problems
This gen has more power to change world than any previous one

So why?
You know, \"Doing well while doing good\"
Doing well BY doing good

Communication has enabled us to work around the world.
Sarah in AU
Raycho
Look at energy $120 b market [in US?]
Change the way society functions
US Spend $750 bn on education
One student sold co for $1.4 m [who?]

Health care $2 T
We are going to be the forefront.
What else is next gen responsible for?
Non-profit driven by entre.
State dept taken over by us
Nice quote from Hilary Clinton

What countries stay friends, which become enemies

People from around the world can meet virtually
US / China /India
China & India will overake US in Global GDP
When they beat the US and Europe
suddenly we can't control where things go
We've been lucky to be only superpower

How do we solve problems?
Economic ties.
Start companies in China / Europe same time
Create communication, no gap

That's what I do every day with Kairos Society.
Not the politicians
Brought 600 students to NY Stock Exchange
Hungarians, Israelis
100 cos showcased on trading floor
Intrepid Aircraft carrier
Global sourcing / Global trade
We are all now leaders.
Solve global problems we all have.
Thank you.
10:50 [applause]

[faculty consult outside]

david roberts
Slides: http://bit.ly/bjUA1D
10:55
- Is Asimo Growing Up?
This is the story of a small retarded robot
He had a hard upbringing
Six years after his release.
Asimo attempted steps and fell on his head.
Audience did not laugh.
They felt Empathy.

Slowly over time, he was able to run, while making turns.
See edges of the floor.
Here he is dodging between papers.
Reporter trying to fool Asimo.
Showing him new toys
Pace of learning is accelerating.
Same learning in one year as in last 8.

We scan human brains.
Ability has doubled every year
See how brain works
Put into robot, make them more intelligent.

This I thought was a photoshop.
Asimo conducts orchestra
Asimo's future may not be human directed.
Future that they create may be different.

They may not do the things we expect them to do
What happens when they pursue their own interests?
Are we OK with that?
Speak to other robots more than they like speaking to us?
We have a hard time relating
They may want to hurt us.
Future of robots can and will -
Robots in a way have already killed humans.
Robots are used to track terrorists

They can also save humans
Save people hurt by bomb.
When device broken, wanted it fixed, not replaced.

Different from us. OK with that?
Things will not be as we expect.
Evolution has prepared us for that. 
When we grow up, we do things different than our parents.
Even when robots are doing different things than we wanted them to do
we can still be proud of them.

11:00 [applause]

[faculty consult outside]

robert denning
11:04
- Urban Dynamics in the 21st Century
Today I'd like to talk about
basically, 4 things happening
Certainly exponential changes

11:05
So, today, I'm going to tell you - 
treaty of Westfalia.
Integral nation state.
Picture of the security council
Focus on nation state, get beyond that paradigm.
We think on nation level.
Get you to think on city level
[slaps thighs]
This alone is a powerful nation state
NY, Tokyo > nations.
1991 the global city proposed looking at just population
looking at service firms.

Take largest service firms, connections
How big a city is
Gray dots, width of black line connects cities

Diplomacy
Number of offices
Air infrastructure
Exhibits between museum
New org
Buzz on that city, searches

Easier to datamine
Academic journals
These are the connections
So this is the current state of the world.
tons of think tanks. NY / London. Then Tokyo /Paris
Rate of change who is at top
Two or one city at the top
Hierarchy - converge on urban geography - London
Exp change in how we look.

Blue is urban, red is rural
Ideological and cultural. Number voted, color Dem/Rep
This is not a united country.

Population is not commensurate with ranking.
[time]
GDP / capita - divergent.
That was in 2005.
2050 not much better.
More in global hierarchy.
Differences in global north and south quite pronounced.
11:10 [applause]

[faculty consult outside]

GMP is the new GDP
Gross Metropolitan Product

11:15 Salim: so what we can do now.
Other rooms are giving direct feedback after each session.
Unfair to early presenters.

Who wants to go first.
: Then people in afternoon have an advantage.
: It is about learning

Salim: Emilano's.
Content.
: Speaking fast.
Salim: Content
Susan: Great eye contact, slides. One slide was small type.
Salim: 
Impact so-so.
To what extent does presentation come out and grab the audience.

Salim: Steve: bouncing around intellectually. Main thrust? Where do exp come in? Excellent presentation style. Really good eye contact.

Need to make main point early.
Great potential as a speaker.

Susan: walked into the projector.

Salim: Ronen: Little lost on what presentation was about.
Missed sense of exp tech. How world will change.
What is the \"It\"
You speak a little softly. You are looking at screen. Use laptop.
Walking around a bit too much.
Presentation lacked a bit of zing.

Susan: with mic, would have been louder.
Daniel: Pauses.

Salim: 

: Other comments?

4-5 bullet points per person. Dozen.
Steve: Comment. Not done this. Look at the laptop screen rather than screen. Voice toward audience.

Salim: Michael. Content was very good. Good attempt to see.
How will customers be impacted. Got supply, not demand.
TOC was 
Reading off the slides.
Didn't 
Cadence of voice was steady. Vary a little more.
Emotional level of talk should vary.

We are being extra harsh in an environment that is extra difficult.
Particularly tricky environment.

Susan: Loved it. Engaging. Since it was new, knew where you were going to go.
Very helpful to new audience. Very excellent.

Salim: Erika: Content, overall excellent. Lost me a bit 2/3 of way through.
Timing, content, excitement really good.

Daniel: How much bill per hour?
Salim: Very impactful. Overcame flaws in content.
Susan: My background. Loved it. As lawyers, how will are we going to feel. \"Left out of job\"

X Factor, what it would have looked like.
David's talk had the X Factor.
Laurne: Really good. Costs associated with it. Hedged/danced around, what was solution not well presented.
Loved slide with your family, but varied message.
Replacement of legal structure with ai structure.

Salim: Others?
Derek: This is the group to collaborate. 
Erika: Team lined up/
Sarah: As visual person, would tweak slides to parallel.
Some a bit too small.

One of few people that didn't appear to rush through slide.

Salim: Tempo was excellent.
David: Pleasant demeanor.

Salim: Miguel.
Content/slides really really great
Lost 2/3rd.
Accent is a little tough.

: Fixt that.
Really good eye contact. Variation in cadence of voice.
Would have been near perfect but lost in middle.

Susan: Thought it was fun. Come forward.
Behind table.
I love the accent.
I would come forward to really grab us.

Salim: Accent you can work on.
: Speak slower, accent not as much.
Don't be perfect English. I like it.

Lauren: Frankly, who cares, you won the world cup.

Derek: My talk?
Lauren: What is intent of these?
100% closed. Going to be posted.
Problem with images.
Salim: No. Really exceptional
Lauren: Image credits.

Susan to Derek: Tied in to developing world. Team project.
Great speaker. Facing the front.
Robert, you stand sideways. Very professional., Great.

Saliim: Clear, compelling - good.
4 not 5. Don't see your expertise in content.
Very good presentation.
Impact, just little bit missing on X factor.
Very very good.

Getting people to speak from own expertise.
Maybe that is the X factor.

Who's next.

Salim: Javier: Excellent flow. Painted image of future really well.
Walked aroudn way too much.
Timing blip.
Noticed - when you do a presentation. Finish with a bang.
A few didn't do that.
You leave people on a low.
Use of dehydrated baby, completely grabbed audience.
For other presenter, that really grabbed you.

Lauren: Got to make that emotional connection with the audience.
People become invested in it.
That's when people are going to support you.
Ross: connected on intellectual and emotional level.
: second ross.

: Question. How to answer that.
Susan: As Sarah says, in an industry - slides need to really pop.
Take it up.
The quality of the animation - at next level. 
Or an emotional level.
These are really thick terms.
Quality - what is next - new presentation forms.
More interesting, artistry.
Daniel: Slidology.
Salim: David Rose on how to give presentation.
Interesting to have you do before.

Salim: Who's next? Ankor
Pres Excellent
Voice - a bit too high
Very good variation of content.
Lost on initial point
Env changing, not entre.
$1 T per year - country, world.
Bounced around a lot.
Instructions ...

Impact: very good close, but lost a bit in the middle.
Other points:

: Excellent engaging. Introvert - got over that nicely.
Polished. Engaging. Connection to SU tech curve - how to enable would have been good slide.

Susan: Extremely poslished.
: wore tie
Slides- work on them a bit.
A little dry.
I secong - where is the exponential tech.
You are a fabulous speaker.

: Loved passion. Don't know if you can transfer same passion, lowering voice.
Slides with numbers, lost you.

Derek: Slightly offput - great - overemphasized. Content is more than delivery. Content
Woke me up, very good.

Salim: David Roberts:
Fucking brilliant.
Couple small flaws.
Other technologies.
Presentation - slides brilliant.
Humor
Very impactful.
Engaged us instantly.
Notice: didn't raise too much, but way he spoke engaged.
Had audience in palm of the hand.
Brilliant.

: Ethics of accel tech.
One slide 50,000 to 1 but not hit home \"this is not fair\"

Really hit the head on an ethics discussion.

: Beautiful - at TED would have been right in line.
One slide on SU timeline of exp impact

Robert: You have excellent poise.
Engaging, but not overly excited.
Anthropomorphized Asimo was excellent.
Went from \"he's finally able to run\" to \"he can have autonomous thoughts\"
That just might be a connection you can flesh out more.
How will he be able to read a magazine.

Susan: Come closer, be more engaged.
You held back a bit. For another delivery, you could go even further.
Maybe talking to themselves ... you held back a bit.
Just come on out. Premise is what we are talking about.

Salim: What happens when robots start using sythn bio ...
Ross: We're prepared for evolution. That was cool.

Salim: Personal comment. This group needs to know who you really are. You have an unbelievable amount to contribute.
What is inside you.

Robert: We are googling you right now. [big laugh]
Salim: Sessions overall.

Robert. Too many \"uhs\" and completely distracting, this thing against your thighs. Topic - completely engaged. What is the future of the city, the nation state. Could take in a whole series of directions.
Bit of a blip in the middle, lost in the data. Didn't finish with a bang.

Susan: Great voice. Really fun to watch. Your personality comes through.
You stood sideways. Try to come forward more.
What is your question at the end.
What is your takeaway.
Salim: When will NY declare itself its own country.
Sao Palo is 50% of economy. No representation at that level.

Jorge: Some slides too cluttered. Couldn't get message.
Emiliano: Great.
: Did come together well. Really really good. Engage audience more.

Salim: New generation of ignites. Presented with set of slides they have never seen and are deliberately mangled. 
How do you like it?
Disagree violently with any feedback? [no]

Robert: Peer feedback. Doesn't have to be a lot. Not fluffy.
Salim: Could easily do that.

11:45 [applause]

content
presentation
overall impact

"
http://su-etherpad.com/unconf-Session-A
"2.00- 2.30 Eugenie and Sasha

Implications of technological change

The last week we have been discussing technological change. The change will drastically affect two major groups: business and costumers. Let us discuss what the effects are!

Business

Transparency
- Google open, transparent about long term plans
Transparent to outside world abut how you operate a company
Customers make decisions about what you purchase based on that info.

Operations
Tools system people
People collaborating faster, conference 20 countries 5 minutes
Fast to execute global projects
Before: What is the killer tech that will help me solve the problem? Nowadays: instant messenger, skype used more frequently. operational change
google, Eugenie is 4 layers from larry and sergey.
Email - easy to communicate
Accelerating ideas
Executing very fast

Traditional structures: marketing sales finance etc,
E-commerce - value of PR 
how do we organize ourselves 
how do we leverage internet

Change management
Employees
launch new organization in a week 
entertainment industry
new technologies

Sustainability 
Green Washing
Act locally 
add value by adding small companies in the society

Consumers

Expectations - corporate, etc
Expectations higher on specific products
decisions based on reputation and not only products

Customization/personalization 
Transparent
we are managing ourselves like other would manage a company 

Diversity of choice 
Global access

Participation
Social Expectations
24/7 real life social media launches
expectation to have dialogue
operational- a nightmare
If one customer is discontent he can spread that easily through Internet

Connectivity
Real time
Changing their minds

What is the impact? How to operate differently?
Technology is not good for techology's own sake
what are the things they need - the customers?
Solve the problems. 
Call waiting - invented in the 1950s but post phones
Why would I hang up on the person I'm talking to? 
Why would u?
Consumer need
Team projects, real consumer business insights, 
accelerating technologies.
high growth through VC not always best
companies growing at their own pace
Companies acquire companies
not viable long term strategy to grow too fast

Q - AI- how will that influence business? 

These responses to technologies that we discussed above came 10 years ago. 

The change will have huge impacts. We need to understand what has happened in the recent history. 
Very painful changes. Nobody wants to do it. Must everyone has to.

Important question - How to create a company flexible enough. Consumers and technology changes push business to change.

2:30-2:55: Matthew Kern: Green Semiconductor Formulations

What is green?
- Consider everything
- Have a plan
- Green means \"go\": go out and find a solution

Improve the cleaning process in line and via formation.

EPA: 12 principles of green. John Warner of Warner Babcock
[get EPA list / /principles.html]

Current: Hydroxyl Amide -- explosive, expensive, not green
Goal: same cleaning results, safer, cheaper, low impact.

4 month project, found a result that was cheaper, less explosive, less viscocity, and didn't need wate treatment before disposal, and not on CA's proposition 65 (toxics) list.

Problem: when you change a process in a semiconductor fab there can be months' worth of tests, and massive amount of retrofits. 

3:00pm
Group Facilitation: Crash Course
Tony Lyu / Korea

More efficient meetings. Comes from the public sector, specifically UN meetings, that all voices are heard, not just one dominant voice.

Example: 4th of July-- do brainstorming...[people throw out ideas]
* bbq, fireworks, sing the anthem, watch the world cup, beach, parade (of robots!) etc

Next: time (x axis) and originality (y axis)-- as time goes on, moves from easy or obvious answers to the creative and less expected.

Then: group the activities, using various perspectives. Ask questions that spark creativity.

Example: trying to find a solution - \"in South Korea, how many presidents since 1945?\"
brainstorming how to figure this out.
1. Divergence [average length in various countries, any SK politics]
2. Chaos
3. Convergence 
OR Premature Closure (latter not a good result. Not a real consensus)

9 micro-skills to use:
Divergence Phase (get people to think)
1. Gather ideas. Don't judge ideas as they come up, distracts from bringing more ideas up. suspend judgement, get quatity.
2. Mirroring- repeat what the other guy said. Don't paraphrase (makes it seem like you're manipulating their idea, appears you're not listening)
3. encourage. People need warming up, especially to help the silent speak up. Best idea- look at them.

Chaos Phase - get people to understand, to explain, to elaborate so that everyone understands
[question - how to know when they switch? when ideas start to overlap, also in part when ideas are being argued]
4. Paraphrase - counterpart to mirroring. \"Am I right in understanding you meant a, b, and c?\"
note: always check back that the original person does, in fact, agree
5. Balance - if one side talks but not the other, it doesn't mean that everyone agrees. Need to hear, ask to hear, from both sides.
6. Make space- if one or a few people are hogging time: choose to ignore some, look at the silent 
7. Stacking - give people an order, if three people put up hands, label them1, 2, 3.
8. Tracking - ensure that all discussions on A are complete before moving on to B.

Final Phase: Convergence
9. Intentional silence - time to think, internal dialog. Get people to \"write down what they're thinking\"

8 Degrees of Agreement, from no to yes.
1. Block - worse thing you can do is to Block, to absolutely say \"No\"
2. No - w/ absolve responsibility
3. Formally Disagree, but still agree to go.
4. Standing Aside - \"I don't think this is correct, but I won't agree with you...\"
5. Abstain - neutral
6. Agree - with reservations
7. Minor point of contention
8. Endorsement - 

Important Question - to get something done, what's the minimum type of agreement we want? It can depend on cultures, etc. Can start at point 2, but for real consensus at least 3-4.

==============================================
3:30 
Alison Lewis: DIY for the non technical person

Background: designer, some CAD, but not electronics. Family - grandmother with crafts in the Smithsonian. Became a web designer. Wanted to bridge the gap between tech, crafts, wanted to have hands-on.

She visited 7 schools, including Parsons School of Design. Markos [Get name], inspiration to go to Parsons. 

Picture: Puppies and Kittens

Processes: [and thinking about an audience which is not necessarily using technology, or thinking DIY. A wide audience, age 13 - 60]
1. Focus on their skills: \"if you can do a sewing pattern, you can understand a diagram\"
Familiar toolds, delicate materials, read patterns, math, solder, construction
2. Lifestyle - be inspired by possibilities - example- pillow talk- pillow to plug cellphone into.
3. Draw it out - sketch, diagram, schematics, code
{Idea - a twitter for drawings}

Question
1. can the design stand alone. Picture - fiber optic costume. The design doesn't require the lights.
2. can the tech be made simple? Find solutions / ideas that aren't overwhelming with tech.
3. what's new?
4. what do I need to teach? for example- teaching how to make LED beads.

Then, go shopping:
* supermarket, drugstore, chain fabric, chain hardware, radioshack: use what people can easily get.
* Avoid the 'scary' places = complex, difficult to use websites. If you *must* then give exact part number and link to the part.
* Stay focused - [example- complex craft store - the electronics store is as imposing if you're not used to it] - hear - use a button as the pcb to hold the LED
* No geek speak in craft stores. Talk to them, show them pictures, don't use techie jargon
* Prototype and Photograph. take lots of photos: every step documented. 25 projects in 5 months
* don't stop until it's right. Simplify until it's realistic and do-able.
* red ink - check each step, have a person who can test it, test it.
* Diagram
* Photography - example - showing project in many locations
* Put it out there - iHeartSwitch, threadbangers, instructables, craftzine, volunteer, workshops, birthday presents, etc. Think: how could you scale to teach many people. 

Q&A
Alison's background: she worked at a company- scarf that detected wifi, etc. They started out building everything themselves, and then instead (now) sent out kits for others to use.

Q: interested in advanced technologies? Yes- fashion is interested in tech: \"Epidermal interfaces.\" Wearable and fashion technology are converging. Example: color changing dress by Cute Fashion.
Q: how do you clean -- Electronics and water don't mix? A: technologies are changing, can remove batteries, flexible, etc. See push in Italy for washable technologies.
Q: adoption? Novelty is an issue.
Q: wearable solar

==============================================
4:15
Modeling Brain Dynamics
Rosa Chan, USC.
Project: started as input output properties of the hippocampus
background - cortical prosthesis
Generalized Laguerre-voltera [get name]

idea: a multi-site electrode array to connect long and short term memory, using a VLSI biomimetic model.

1. Three types of neural prostheses
- sensory, see Second Sight company/spinnoff. Case of helping after retinal damage
- motor, after amputation for example
- Cortical prosthesis - her project. Help patients who've lost brain function - a bridge between one and another parts of the brain. Example: movie:memento- lost hippocampus

Need to understand inputs/outputs
example: rat, delayed non match to sample (DMNS) memory task. Similar to remembering where one parked a car.
[Deadwyler's lab @ wake forest university

Two approaches
* I/O Driven models
Available measurements - FMRI, EEG, MEG; Spike trains. 
like trying to hear a concert from the outside, listening through the door.
[diagram Brown et al Nature Neurosci 2004]

* Bottom-up approach
Leaders: 
IBM Blue Brain, 
IBM SyNAPSE Team, [Henry Markham ? in Switzerland]
UCSD Whole Brain, 
EONS (elementary objects of the neural system) model at the synapse level
[diagram: Bouteiller et al J of Integrative Neruoscience 2008]

Model from synapse to neuron - EONS...

But neurons are only 10% of the brain. Glia = 90%
Modeling the other brain - take into account Neruon-glia interaction. This has been neglected.

H. is a multi I/O system. 
it is dynamical and nonlinear. NOnstationary nonlin dyn underlie spike train transformations. 
Also Stoichastic - different spike outputs for the same continuous firing probability

They built a physiologically plausible model, and a stoichastic model.

Then-- she had it implemented on a system.
recording - multichannel processor - spike sorting - program - simulator- output.

Results: a drug (mk801) inhibits H function: they built a real-time facilitation of hippocampal impaired rat. 
* They can predict if it's making particular decisions in a MIMO closed loop performance.
[Unpublished]

Importance: 
*Learning, 
*Role of context, 
*Adaptation, 
* hormonal fluctuations [corticosterones/stress, estrogens, ghrelin/hunger]

She now has a whole series of data.
Next - moving from rat to monkey model.

==============================================
4:45
David Hutchinson: Feedback in Hierachical Temporal Memory

A topic he likes, not what he researches (which is graphene, etc)

HTM: an interactive heirarchy of levels all waiting...
Will talk about feedback loops
Example: internal letter mixups in words, where people can understand. This will be his model system - how we read words.

Recommends: Hawkins \"On Intelligence\"
3 facets / characteristics of HTM
1 hierarchical reasoning - there is a hierarchy 
2 predictions
3 feedback - beyond external and internal world interacting. between internal levels w/in head
You don't close your eyes when you are driving

Example: \"Psychology\" it has a shape, with spikes, etc.
Your brain does some interesting things. Flash word fast. Measure how quickly it could be identified. Research done in 60's.
now \"psychoigy\" or \"psycgology\" therefore brain is looking at overall shape
fastest: \"psychologr\" 
Another more interesting thing, your brain picks it up even sooner by chaning the last letter. Seems to start at both ends and work in. Looks at shape.
Also looks at local features. White space, black space, angles. 
start at both ends, read inwards, decipher overall shape, real-time sensitization
global and local levels: how does brain talk to each?
[Slide: Real-time sensitization]
So you glance at a word for the first time.
Both local and global feature recognizers jump in.
Local says could be that word or that word, but 90% sure it is NOT that word.
One can say to the other \"try harder\"
Global recognizer takes two words and looks for ups/downs. Sensitizes to particular feature.
finds \"two ups\" and passes that back down to Localizer. results in time delays in what we can recognize.
For example, change a letter to something similar it will take longer than for something completely different.

we have an ability that chimps don't have. Demo: youtube: \"chimps outperform humans at memory tasks\"
Quick demonstration on YouTube nTgeLEWr614
Chimp playing video game. Learned to count. In order. 1 2 3 4 5 .. Scattered .. when 1 pressed, rest blank out. It can do that.
[km note: chimps can/do recognize numerals as such, that \"14\" is larger than \"11\"]
Human tries the same thing.
[Chimp that has been trained for years and years
Yes.
[Patterns chimp has not seen before
[It was missing 2 there 
Yes, just 5 of the 10 numbers.
Point is - a few points.
OK, we have all these feature recognizers.
This means something to me.
I have to work through all these levels.
Points out we have all these levels.

5 chimps in Japan all doing this. Seems to be something there.
There have been other interesting studies.

So this is how [in last 4 minutes] - neural networks and machine learning.
Next thing: real time sensitization.
Seeing now in neural networks. Nodes that interact with each other with different weightings.
You send inputs in, see what you get out, change weightings.
This is a way to get the computer to \"think\" like a brain.
You change the values, so that part of this network can tell other parts what to do.

Q: What does 0.7 mean? 70% probability.
Think of it as 0/1 or -1/1.
Sigmoid curve. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function
Multiplicative factor of inputs.
Computers using this architecture can detect shapes.
This is the way computers are going, not just line after line of code.

[applause]
Q: Back to chimp. They can do it better than we can?
If it is a real effect, why is chimp better.
K: Chimps actually understand numbers very well.
5 M&Ms and 7 M&Ms. They do that.
Chimps will always choose the larger plate.
Will also always choose the larger number.
Deeply related to food.
That tree has 14 fruits. That has 17 fruits.

Q: So chimp has more photographic memory?
I think so.
Why might this be the case?
If you are jumping off trees and swinging through branches ...
while we are symbolic.
Q: Dmitry. Trained for a long time.
Q: I have a good example - chess masters have a photographic memory.
If you show them an impossible board position, they can't recall it.
Played so much, they can reconstruct them.

David R: test 2 things. Human eye has natural length of period - latency.
At 15 fps we don't notice choppiness. Birds are way high.

K: Chimps can watch our movies no problem.
David R: Humans would not notice 1/100th
Birds would notice 1/200th of a second flash.
When we look at animal we look at outside edges. Reading inwards is function of that.
Q: Non-human primates only have an approximate number system.
K: Amory Lovins - energy research group - board of great apes research thing.
Has talked about it.
Great apes can watch, but not understand, our movies.

Q: Neural networks can be trained to get same conclusion. Can you find commonalities of two similar networks.
David: You do see emergence of properties. Otherwise, you could just program in that state. It is the emergence of a property bigger than the nodes.
If you shift equivalent nodes ... you have redundancy. See no differerence.
Q: Recognition of a word? Shift letters. Something behind recognizing length ...
Not just one thing on hierarchy. Number of ups/ downs. Shapes of ups/down.

Q: Also true of Hebrew. Japanese.
I suspect so.
Q: Chinese? 
Don't know: perhaps shape of white spaces, etc.

==============================================
5:15
Sam Thorpe
Parkinsons

A primer on Parkinsons. (not at the neuronal level)
Three famous people: Michael J. Fox, Sergey Brin, muhammad ali. 
* 2nd most common neuro disease
* can only diagnose with autopsy
* other diseases have similar symptoms> Parkinsonian diseases, similar appearance, different caues
* 8% genetic, 3% environment, 89% no idea. Or not- this data is contentious.
* one model of P. came from a group of heroin users- a bad batch caused instant P.
* of the 8%, 13 genes, 8 with no pathology reported (we don't know what gene does, or how it affects. just correlated).
* ST worked on PARK1. They almost know what it does.

What is it?
death of neurons in the Substantia nigra. You'll see specific symptoms. These cells make dopamine. w/out it causes movement problems, etc
* by the time diagnosis is possible, 60% of neurons are dead. (60% is Sam's memory. get number)
* one treatment: L-dopa, precursor. Can't give dopamine in directly / doesn't pass BB barrier. See example: MJFox taking, not taking.
* problem: over time you get used to it. Attenuated. 
* Deep Brain stimulation - a treatment, not a cure.

Detection: Why do those genes cause P.? Even if we know what the genes do, we don't know why they cause P. i.e. what if it's mitochondria? (it isn't)

Future work
* genome sequencing
* stem cells - not yet, they've tried, failed.
* Sergey Brins data mining approach- see Wired: http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/06/ff_sergeys_search/all/1 a way of attacking the problem. 
* Genetic manipulation - replace genes, rather than a lifelong treatment.

Q&A
CD: efforts like folding@home, where they claim they can help things like Alz, etc, can it help with P?
A: certainly can help, what proteins do, etc. Also- can do less sophisticated methods like simply looking at the protein. Need everything on the path: what they look like, how they interact with everything.
Q: Animal models? Computational models? 
A: we know so little we work in tiny animals. i.e. Nemotodes, he works with yeast. Very, very difficult: we're at the very basic level for animal models. Computational models? need more data, still very early.
Q could we used FMRI to detect death in the brain? 
A: yes, could look, theoretically, but not feasible to have everyone do it
Q: prosthetics? A: see also Rosa Chan.

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